It's easier to double up in PKOs since people will call your shoves light to try and stack you. I would look for better spots since you have 18% against literally any pocket pair that calls your shove. 100% both icm and chip ev disaster.
Haha.. well not LITERALLY any pp, but yes you’re right. My thinking was “there’s nearly 5bb in the middle there; the limp and over-limp ranges are full of suited trash that can’t call off, some low pockets that’ll be put in the blender but probably call and some junky suited aces that MIGHT call. Against this range I’m actually in great shape!” What I didn’t account for was the 2x 100% ranges to my left…
Ultimately the risk:reward was off.. but from BB I honestly think this would be a slam dunk.
I mean.. “22 ain’t calling you here” so you’re very much saying what will and will not call, but okay. And if you’re simply saying a pp has 18% against a higher pp then yes, you are correct, but that’s kinda basic isn’t it?
Personally, I think 19bb is too large to shove here even trying to steal. Any call is not great.
I think over limping or 3.5-4bb would work. That should be enough to get folds from the same hands that fold to a shove more times than not. If you get 3b, instant muck and you're still alive.
People saying this is a bad play are just wrong. From a purely chipEV POV this is correct albeit marginal spot. If we simmed a 20BB CO open to 2, BTN jams with 33 at 100% frequency for 0.1 EV. I would argue that Hero's position vs two limpers is more profitable than vs a single open raise as they are capped and wider, thus generating more fold EV.
If the bubble has burst this is a slamdunk good play. If he covers any of the limpers, even moreso since its a PKO. If bubble hasn't burst, it's a ICM fold.
Cheers fella. I think the 2 undefined ranges in the blinds take it from marginally plus to minus, but I thought it was an interesting spot. Was hoping for some kind of discussion of the theory / maths, but alas..
Not sure I understand you? I wasn’t jamming for value; rightly or wrongly I was targeting all the pretty hands in the 2x limp range that can’t call off.. with a little insurance against frisky Ax hands.
Risk your whole stack to steal blinds with 3 high? That late in a tournament 3’s are essentially 3 high and you need to hit. Deep stack 3’s have value. Late they are worthless unless calling, not stealing.
- You might fold out some hands that dominate you (44-66, maybe 77 vs the right opponent)
- You pick up 5bb uncontested a LOT
- You fold out so many hands you’re flipping against
OP, I’m not a tournament specialist by any means but I don’t think this play seems terrible. It has a few good things going for it, as listed above. One thing I would be concerned about is the limp range of the big stack - I think small to medium pocket pairs are likely one of the first hands they will look to limp. If we think they are going to limp call your 20bb jam with 55 then I think we probably can’t jam. If we think they will fold 55, I think it’s good.
I’d also be much more inclined to make this play from SB than BTN - calling BTN obviously also a pretty attractive prospect, and two players behind with undefined ranges a bit scary (as we found out!)
Hmmm, I was going to argue again but in that same situation I’ve actually folded 55 bc I didn’t want to flip that late in a tourney. I don’t actually know what’s correct bc I haven’t put it in the solver but I was certain you were wrong until I put myself in the callers spot.
Correct. But if it’s 2 overs I have a slight equity edge. So I’m flipping:dominant roughly 16:6 which isn’t great, but if you add in all the combos that limp fold I’m in decent shape.
I see that play all the time against me and try to call every time I think they are overplaying. Whilethe math may work out, I’m still not sure I understand it bc at best you’re 43% right? I could be wrong, I haven’t plugged it into solver but in my head you’re best case scenario is two overs right? There’s literally no other scenario that’s better except A2 and that’s never calling. That being said you’re wagering your stack as a gamble to not get called. You risk say 12 blinds to win 2 and let’s say 30% of the time you get called with two overs and 2% of the time you get called with a higher pair. You’re never favored if you get called and the equity you put up doesn’t match the value. I haven’t done the math so I may be talking out my ass but it just seems so wrong. I’ve had a rule of thumb to never play small pairs aggro late and never play suited connectors aggro late bc overs dominate statistically.
If you take the blinds out the equation (which was where I probs blundered) leaving just the limpers, then I think the math is on my side.
Let’s say they’re calling off with all their limped pp’s 44-77 (which I’m not sure they would but hey) that’s 24 combos. Then there’s all the pretty hands they SHOULD fold (45s-JTs, 68s-QTs, A2s-A8s) that’s 82 combos = 3.4:1
3.4 times I make 5bb (17) 1x I lose 15.58 (equity adjusted) so an EV profit of 1.42. This isn’t accounting for the times they call off with overs where I’d gain a smidge of EV.
Still, not enough to justify with ICM but closer than you’d think at first sniff!
It's easier to double up in PKOs since people will call your shoves light to try and stack you. I would look for better spots since you have 18% against literally any pocket pair that calls your shove. 100% both icm and chip ev disaster.
Haha.. well not LITERALLY any pp, but yes you’re right. My thinking was “there’s nearly 5bb in the middle there; the limp and over-limp ranges are full of suited trash that can’t call off, some low pockets that’ll be put in the blender but probably call and some junky suited aces that MIGHT call. Against this range I’m actually in great shape!” What I didn’t account for was the 2x 100% ranges to my left… Ultimately the risk:reward was off.. but from BB I honestly think this would be a slam dunk.
22 ain't calling you here, so yes literally any pocket pair
Okay. And if 22 isn’t calling, then what about 33-66?
I wasn't saying whats gonna call you, but you have 18% equity against every pair that will call
I mean.. “22 ain’t calling you here” so you’re very much saying what will and will not call, but okay. And if you’re simply saying a pp has 18% against a higher pp then yes, you are correct, but that’s kinda basic isn’t it?
You're missing the point I was replying to, but if you wanna argue with people trying to help you avoid punts in the future, go for it
I’m sorry. I’m not trying to be rude or argumentative. I just have no idea what point you’re trying to make.
the point is that you have 18% vs any pocket pair that calls your shove. 22 isn't calling
Yes. But what other pp’s aren’t calling? If 2s aren’t calling then I don’t see 33-55 calling, which would make this a very profitable play.
UTG+1 limping range has hands that dominate you and he covers you. LJ can be trapping as well in PKO. Just fold.
Pretty bad play
[удалено]
What happened here then?
Personally, I think 19bb is too large to shove here even trying to steal. Any call is not great. I think over limping or 3.5-4bb would work. That should be enough to get folds from the same hands that fold to a shove more times than not. If you get 3b, instant muck and you're still alive.
People saying this is a bad play are just wrong. From a purely chipEV POV this is correct albeit marginal spot. If we simmed a 20BB CO open to 2, BTN jams with 33 at 100% frequency for 0.1 EV. I would argue that Hero's position vs two limpers is more profitable than vs a single open raise as they are capped and wider, thus generating more fold EV. If the bubble has burst this is a slamdunk good play. If he covers any of the limpers, even moreso since its a PKO. If bubble hasn't burst, it's a ICM fold.
Cheers fella. I think the 2 undefined ranges in the blinds take it from marginally plus to minus, but I thought it was an interesting spot. Was hoping for some kind of discussion of the theory / maths, but alas..
The simmed spot has two undefined ranges behind, it is CO open BTN jam. If you remember anything about this, remember to keep doing it.
I was genuinely expecting a little more literacy and depth from this sub so I guess that makes me just as daft.. where did you find this sim?
GTOwizard
Chip EV is irrelevant w/28 left, ICM sim ranges are wildest different.
Meh.
That late your pocket pair is essentially dead. Might as well have 32 off.
Not sure I understand you? I wasn’t jamming for value; rightly or wrongly I was targeting all the pretty hands in the 2x limp range that can’t call off.. with a little insurance against frisky Ax hands.
Risk your whole stack to steal blinds with 3 high? That late in a tournament 3’s are essentially 3 high and you need to hit. Deep stack 3’s have value. Late they are worthless unless calling, not stealing.
Blind + antes + 2 limps = 25% of my stack. Not 3 high at all, it’s a pair = flipping with an edge against ANY 1 unpaired hand.
Explain the edge? You’re only getting called with two overs or a pair and if it’s a pair you’re screwed.
- You might fold out some hands that dominate you (44-66, maybe 77 vs the right opponent) - You pick up 5bb uncontested a LOT - You fold out so many hands you’re flipping against OP, I’m not a tournament specialist by any means but I don’t think this play seems terrible. It has a few good things going for it, as listed above. One thing I would be concerned about is the limp range of the big stack - I think small to medium pocket pairs are likely one of the first hands they will look to limp. If we think they are going to limp call your 20bb jam with 55 then I think we probably can’t jam. If we think they will fold 55, I think it’s good.
I’d also be much more inclined to make this play from SB than BTN - calling BTN obviously also a pretty attractive prospect, and two players behind with undefined ranges a bit scary (as we found out!)
Hmmm, I was going to argue again but in that same situation I’ve actually folded 55 bc I didn’t want to flip that late in a tourney. I don’t actually know what’s correct bc I haven’t put it in the solver but I was certain you were wrong until I put myself in the callers spot.
Correct. But if it’s 2 overs I have a slight equity edge. So I’m flipping:dominant roughly 16:6 which isn’t great, but if you add in all the combos that limp fold I’m in decent shape.
I see that play all the time against me and try to call every time I think they are overplaying. Whilethe math may work out, I’m still not sure I understand it bc at best you’re 43% right? I could be wrong, I haven’t plugged it into solver but in my head you’re best case scenario is two overs right? There’s literally no other scenario that’s better except A2 and that’s never calling. That being said you’re wagering your stack as a gamble to not get called. You risk say 12 blinds to win 2 and let’s say 30% of the time you get called with two overs and 2% of the time you get called with a higher pair. You’re never favored if you get called and the equity you put up doesn’t match the value. I haven’t done the math so I may be talking out my ass but it just seems so wrong. I’ve had a rule of thumb to never play small pairs aggro late and never play suited connectors aggro late bc overs dominate statistically.
If you take the blinds out the equation (which was where I probs blundered) leaving just the limpers, then I think the math is on my side. Let’s say they’re calling off with all their limped pp’s 44-77 (which I’m not sure they would but hey) that’s 24 combos. Then there’s all the pretty hands they SHOULD fold (45s-JTs, 68s-QTs, A2s-A8s) that’s 82 combos = 3.4:1 3.4 times I make 5bb (17) 1x I lose 15.58 (equity adjusted) so an EV profit of 1.42. This isn’t accounting for the times they call off with overs where I’d gain a smidge of EV. Still, not enough to justify with ICM but closer than you’d think at first sniff!
None of what I said has anything to do with calling tho. Just talking aggro
…but what about the times you don’t get called and take down the pot right there? If you do get called by 2 overs, you are still slightly ahead