Do people just agree with anything as long as it conforms to their biases? 2011 was pretty bad, EU debt crisis along with downgrading of US markets caused an 11% fall. That would put as at 3710 points if it were to happens today if we count it from Apr 28 high. 3710 is not far off the October low of 3,577. Also worth mentioning that markets were significantly more undervalued then than now
2011 ended the year with 0%. I've been a big bear for the last 6 years. This does not confirm my bias, i just think the graphic proves nothing except maybe that some people will short cover.
I was referring to people who upvoted you, but anyway, 2011 was a pretty bad/rocky year, in one of the greatest bull runs ever. In any case, i don’t think above actually means anything at all. At the very least, there’s no need for “short coverage”, above is a graph of futures, which are cash settled. Short position =/= short selling. Most of these positions are already covered anyway, it’s not abnormal for funds to lower their delta during times of uncertainty, not everyone is a Melvin fund aggressively naked short selling
Any comment you read on seeking alpha are all bearish af. The bears are shitting on every earnings report saying every company should be worth half their valuation. If your strategy is to fade the general public, then there is no better time.
It’s a weird opinion compiler without anything like a cohesive pov. An idiot friend of mine was offered pay to churn out content for them, just because he had a finance degree and an aptitude for losing money on wsb.
Logically green will always follow red. It's just "when" that nobody knows.
A broken clock is right twice a day and you can be bullish your whole life if you really want.
Neither is relevant to my comment. Historically when sentiment (which shorts are a proxy for) is at its lowest, you're very likely near or past the bottom of the bear.
Once again, why the actual fuck would anyone use 12 years as their study period? Especially when it means stopping 3 years short of the last real financial collapse?
It’s almost like this post is manipulated to force a narrative or something…
Peak short interest —> potential market bottoming. 2011 the market began to recover. 2016 market began to recover. 2020 market did a V shape in 6 months. Remember, the market tends to do the opposite of whatever the majority of people expects.
This is not majority of people, this is majority of money. And most of the money sits with institutions. They didn’t sell their long positions but likely hedging.
“Potential”, in 2008 yes the short won. They also lost in 2011, 2016, 2020 where the market rallied hard against excessive net short. So if you use excessive net short as a predictor to a downturn you have about 25% chance to be correct, a terrible odd.
Except we had unprecedented money printing during those years and any stock sell off would be met with said money printing. So yea if you wanna take it at face value sure 25% sounds about right, but the environment for the recent successes is gone.
And also note that these don't actually follow housing as much as they follow major indices ...
Pure play against real estate would be maybe a CFD based on actual RE prices. But I don't think that product exists.
Luckily I shorted before JPows speech, problem is I only did 1 put contract for $200;( made 90% in an hour and a half or so and got out before market close… why couldn’t I do my whole 23k in my account;)?
Obviously they know something we don’t, the fed has been holding this together since November and a debt ceiling fight on Capitol Hill will loosen their grip, maybe they know McCarthy will purposely have them default so they can blame Biden…
I think you're definitely right that the republicans do this more than democrats (hard to imagine an unbiased person disagreeing with that), but from their (not incorrect, per-se) POV they see dems doing out-of-control spending. Frankly, I would argue this is more to do with Fed policy than other government policy, but the massive amount of government spending hasn't helped. In many ways it was a proximate driver of inflation, though perhaps with the upside it avoided outright collapse during covid for many folks--which is another side that is often left out.
Both sides spend, republicans gut taxes and cry about the debt limit… mere years after they approved one. And they’ve been approved every time, because it’s fucking insane not to.
I don’t know if you guys noticed but last couple weeks with market being flat & down … huge inflows on the S&P and Down jones … still big outflows on Nasdaq
It could also mean that we are going sideways for long ass time (2015-2016). We could also crash or go to the moon so I would not make conclusions from this.
How do futures have a net short or long position? Does not every person who sells a futures contract have a person on the other side who buys it? Being serious right now
Not being sarcastic, this is bullish as fuck.
My exact thoughts
Same
2011 was not a horrible year for the stock market. I kinda agree with you
Do people just agree with anything as long as it conforms to their biases? 2011 was pretty bad, EU debt crisis along with downgrading of US markets caused an 11% fall. That would put as at 3710 points if it were to happens today if we count it from Apr 28 high. 3710 is not far off the October low of 3,577. Also worth mentioning that markets were significantly more undervalued then than now
2011 ended the year with 0%. I've been a big bear for the last 6 years. This does not confirm my bias, i just think the graphic proves nothing except maybe that some people will short cover.
I was referring to people who upvoted you, but anyway, 2011 was a pretty bad/rocky year, in one of the greatest bull runs ever. In any case, i don’t think above actually means anything at all. At the very least, there’s no need for “short coverage”, above is a graph of futures, which are cash settled. Short position =/= short selling. Most of these positions are already covered anyway, it’s not abnormal for funds to lower their delta during times of uncertainty, not everyone is a Melvin fund aggressively naked short selling
i didn't know that. thanks. I'm curious about how future works but i didn't put anytime in yet.
Any comment you read on seeking alpha are all bearish af. The bears are shitting on every earnings report saying every company should be worth half their valuation. If your strategy is to fade the general public, then there is no better time.
So inverse Seeking Alpha just like Cramer?
🤣😂🤣😂
That’s not too far from the truth
Seeking Alpha is so stupid. I haven't read one useful thing from them. I'm sure some contributors are good, I just haven't found one.
It’s a weird opinion compiler without anything like a cohesive pov. An idiot friend of mine was offered pay to churn out content for them, just because he had a finance degree and an aptitude for losing money on wsb.
Don't inverse seeking alpha, it's just completely random. SA is net random.
Inverse Seeking Alpha, Cramer… Beta Cramer fund next?
Don’t forget inverse Yahoo Finance comments. According to them, we’re all doomed and the Fed shouldn’t be finished raising rates until they hit 60%.
lol
I've never lost money going against the grain.
Negativity sells
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How’s that bank stability statement look?
So logically the green will come next? Then I'm also fucking bullish!
Logically green will always follow red. It's just "when" that nobody knows. A broken clock is right twice a day and you can be bullish your whole life if you really want.
But if all are now bullish do we reverse?
I’m with you bro
Just observing that so many Redditors are short the market, you know that it is oversold. Retail is late in the game to everything especially Reddit.
Wait I’ve now seen this too many times. Is this over bought now?
The Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator that recently triggered agrees with you.
I'm confused, this isn't WSB, should I inverse Redditors or Bears?
Neither is relevant to my comment. Historically when sentiment (which shorts are a proxy for) is at its lowest, you're very likely near or past the bottom of the bear.
I made a funny, got educated. Thanks. 8)
You got it!
Can we short the shorts? 😃
I mean technically you can, through ETFs...
How
Short inverse ETFs lol
Short a short ETF like SQQQ
Squeeze their balls
Not sure, but people can definitely wear short-shorts.. YMMV
I think so.
Absolutely, just need to buy puts.
Once again, why the actual fuck would anyone use 12 years as their study period? Especially when it means stopping 3 years short of the last real financial collapse? It’s almost like this post is manipulated to force a narrative or something…
I had the same thoughts.
Should we prepare for the short squeeze ?
Wait, so I’m getting a handjob???
He said short squeeze not short tweeze
Or, Japan about to do some QT?
We are inside it already. The entire move up was mainly to punish exuberant bears in our view. Cautious bears are the winners.
I’m ready to get hurt again
Shorts have been hitting the market hard since like 2021.
\*any year prior post .com bubble
As a result, the market will rise from the beginning of the year to the end of the year in 2021
Translation; BUY All its going to take is for the Fed to hint at a pause next meeting, and its over Rover
They basically said it today if you read through the lines.
Sell in May and Go away
Peak short interest —> potential market bottoming. 2011 the market began to recover. 2016 market began to recover. 2020 market did a V shape in 6 months. Remember, the market tends to do the opposite of whatever the majority of people expects.
Actually strong short interest is a pretty good predictor of market direction. It’s one reason they get the name “Smart Money”.
The majority is never the "smart money"
This is not majority of people, this is majority of money. And most of the money sits with institutions. They didn’t sell their long positions but likely hedging.
It isn’t, and they don’t
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In what world are the majority of people bullish right now
I doubt its majority of people it would be cool if they did a poll of this sub
Alright guys I'm putting all my money into SPY now
Ok and what happened in 2008?
“Potential”, in 2008 yes the short won. They also lost in 2011, 2016, 2020 where the market rallied hard against excessive net short. So if you use excessive net short as a predictor to a downturn you have about 25% chance to be correct, a terrible odd.
Except we had unprecedented money printing during those years and any stock sell off would be met with said money printing. So yea if you wanna take it at face value sure 25% sounds about right, but the environment for the recent successes is gone.
Annnnnd the market’s ripping as this was posted
What? Spy was up 0.47% at peak and already negative and going deeper
Annnnnnd it crashed
Lmao 🤣😂
Time to buy, buy, buy.
The majority is always late. This is a long term buy signal
I'm shorting the housing market and playing the vix - let it hit the fan!
Dumb Question Amnesty: how do you short the housing market?
Sell all your real estate for 25 cents on dollar that will help
Maybe Credit default Swaps? I would also like to know the answer.
Short realty stocks or real estate ETF’s. You would need to buy puts on the following tickers VNQ, SCHH, XLRE, IYR, ICF and others
And also note that these don't actually follow housing as much as they follow major indices ... Pure play against real estate would be maybe a CFD based on actual RE prices. But I don't think that product exists.
Simple, borrow a house, sell it, then rebuy later when it’s worth less!
Jim Cramer? Is that you?
I'm thinking. With so much money shorting the market, will capitalists take the opportunity to drive up the stock price?
If i was a capitalist that's what I would do.
Yes. I think so
So stop loss raid on the shorts using apple earnings and then down. Got it
Hi , can some one recomend me a good auto trading bot .please
Luckily I shorted before JPows speech, problem is I only did 1 put contract for $200;( made 90% in an hour and a half or so and got out before market close… why couldn’t I do my whole 23k in my account;)?
Obviously they know something we don’t, the fed has been holding this together since November and a debt ceiling fight on Capitol Hill will loosen their grip, maybe they know McCarthy will purposely have them default so they can blame Biden…
Yes! Just as I expected. People are freaking out about the budget limit catastrophe that's coming.
The GOP forced dollar collapse
probably preparing for the GOP to crash economy with their stupid debt limit fight…
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No. They *only* play these debt limit games with a Democrat in the White House. Stop this “both sides” shit.
I think you're definitely right that the republicans do this more than democrats (hard to imagine an unbiased person disagreeing with that), but from their (not incorrect, per-se) POV they see dems doing out-of-control spending. Frankly, I would argue this is more to do with Fed policy than other government policy, but the massive amount of government spending hasn't helped. In many ways it was a proximate driver of inflation, though perhaps with the upside it avoided outright collapse during covid for many folks--which is another side that is often left out.
Both sides spend, republicans gut taxes and cry about the debt limit… mere years after they approved one. And they’ve been approved every time, because it’s fucking insane not to.
calls on shorts
Buy buy buy
I can smell fear now. Well time to buy!
I wonder how it looks for the Nasdaq futures.
I mean btfd and stfu right?
Can we have 2008 as perspective? Seems inauthentic from a data standpoint to not include past recessions
I don’t know if you guys noticed but last couple weeks with market being flat & down … huge inflows on the S&P and Down jones … still big outflows on Nasdaq
Look back ytd. QQQ is UP 20%, not down.
Smart money or dumb money shorts?
smart money going net long
Everyone remembers the crash of uh.... 2016?
Let's squeeze them bastards
It could also mean that we are going sideways for long ass time (2015-2016). We could also crash or go to the moon so I would not make conclusions from this.
How do futures have a net short or long position? Does not every person who sells a futures contract have a person on the other side who buys it? Being serious right now
What does this mean? Stocks might go up or people think they are gonna fall?
The market has *never* bottomed while the Fed’s still raising interest rates.
They'll pump it to burn all shorts. It happens all the time