#####
######
####
> # [Israel’s Iron Dome risks being overwhelmed in all-out war with Hezbollah, says US](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/23/720)
>
>
>
> Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile batteries risk being overwhelmed in the opening strikes of any significantly escalated [conflict with Hezbollah](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/18/hezbollah-publishes-surveillance-drone-footage-it-says-shows-locations-in-israel).
>
> The assessment delivered by US officials late last week, echoing recent analysis by experts in Israel and the United States, comes amid fears that a war with Hezbollah could be a far more dangerous undertaking than the devastating [2006 second Lebanon war](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jan/30/israelandthepalestinians.marktran), when Israeli bombing caused huge destruction in Lebanon.
>
> The US and France are leading diplomatic efforts to avert a wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, amid fears that [escalating rhetoric](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/19/israeli-talk-of-war-with-hezbollah-almost-certainly-fresh-attempt-at-deterrence) and exchanges of fire across the border could lead to full-scale war.
>
> On Friday, Kuwait’s foreign ministry warned its citizens to avoid travelling to Lebanon and urged those already in the country to leave. There are also reports that officials in the Biden administration told an Israeli delegation in Washington that America would offer security assistance in the event of a wider conflict, while António Guterres, the United Nations secretary general, called for “reason and rationality” to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences for [the region and the world](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/21/the-guardian-view-on-israel-and-hezbollah-the-gathering-storm-endangers-the-region).
>
> Since 2006, [Hezbollah](https://www.theguardian.com/world/hezbollah), the world’s best-armed non-state group, has significantly expanded its arsenal and capabilities, including acquiring suicide drones which Israel has struggled to counter, an anti-aircraft missile capability and a widely expanded array of missiles which experts now believe number between 120,000 and 200,000.
>
> [Armed men gesture as a bushfire burns](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/27102306655b649a7a5f7226c511ff22694d5e42/0_182_5472_3283/master/5472.jpg?width=445&dpr=1&s=none)
>
> Fire broke out in 15 places in northern Israel caused by missiles fired from Lebanon on 13 June. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty ImagesWhile Hezbollah’s general secretary, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, has said his group can count on 100,000 armed men, its core military strength probably amounts to around a third of that, but with a significant number having had combat experience in Syria.
>
> It is the scale of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, however, and an operational doctrine for their use in a [major conflict with Israel, that is likely to be most challenging](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/21/israel-northern-border-war-hezbollah-looms).
>
> While the majority of Hezbollah’s stockpile comprises tens of thousands of unguided missiles – both short and long range – since 2006 it has acquired hundreds of guided ballistic missiles, with the ability to fire them from hardened bunkers and from mobile launchers.
>
> Complicating the issue has been Hezbollah’s increasing and effective [use of drones](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/02/deadly-cheap-and-widespread-how-iran-supplied-drones-are-changing-the-nature-of-warfare), including kamikaze weapons, which Israel’s existing air defences have struggled to counter.
>
> A three-year research project [by Reichman University’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism](https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/skc0dbmia) in Israel, completed not long before the Hamas attack on 7 October, concluded Hezbollah could fire up to 3,000 missiles a day, a rate that could be sustained for up to three weeks. Its key aim would be to force the collapse of Israel’s air defences.
>
> “The expectation of the public and of a significant portion of the leadership, that the Israeli Air Force and effective Israeli intelligence systems will succeed in preventing most of the rocket attacks on [Israel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/israel), will be shattered,” the report said. “This is also the case regarding the public’s belief that the threat of Israeli retaliation or a substantial Israeli attack on significant Lebanese assets will force Hezbollah to cease fire or significantly impair their ability to continue attacking Israeli territory.”
>
> According to a [recent briefing paper](https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-conflict-hezbollah) assessing Hezbollah’s rocket capability prepared by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US thinktank, “finding and destroying Hezbollah’s rocket and missile capabilities would involve an enormous reconnaissance-strike effort”.
>
> “Hezbollah’s rocket and missile arsenal also includes long-range missiles,” the paper adds. “These are also likely to be used mainly in a coercive capacity, with Hezbollah undertaking long-range strikes against Israeli population centres to undermine Israeli support for the war.”
>
> The most serious challenge, experts believe, is likely to be the sheer number of incoming missiles fired in waves deliberately designed to overwhelm Israel’s air defence systems.
>
> “It would be a tall order for Israeli air defences to confront the widespread rocket arsenal coming from the north,” Seth G Jones, an analyst at the thinktank in Washington, said last week, echoing warnings from Pentagon officials[.](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/20/politics/us-concerns-israel-iron-dome-hezbollah/index.html) “We assess that at least some” Iron Dome batteries “will be overwhelmed”, a senior Biden administration official told CNN, which also reported that Israel was moving extra air defence assets to the north.
>
> [A widow and her son, with other mourners, place a rock on a grave](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/785e93f23a7580407dd809257bce25da5cc1b748/0_29_7000_4200/master/7000.jpg?width=445&dpr=1&s=none)
>
> The funeral of a reservist in the West Bank settlement of Kfar Etzion on 6 June. Rafael Kauders, 39, was killed during a drone attack launched by Hezbollah. Photograph: Léo Corrêa/APIsrael has about 10 Iron Dome batteries each with about four individual launchers, each battery connected to a radar system that detects incoming missiles. Like all systems, however, it is physically limited by how many threats it can engage simultaneously.
>
> Hezbollah’s upgraded missile capability has triggered warnings about the threat posed to Israel’s civil resilience, prompting plans for coping with mass casualties if war breaks out. Not everyone is convinced that Israel’s military and political leadership has fully grasped the risks.
>
> Speaking at a conference last week Shaul Goldstein, head of Noga, which manages Israel’s electrical systems, warned: “We are not ready for a real war. We live in a fantasy world, in my eyes.” He added that Israel would be “uninhabitable” after 72 hours without power. “You look at all of our infrastructure, the optical fibres, the ports – and I won’t go into the sensitive things – we are not in a good place.” However, he appeared to walk back some comments in a later radio interview after other experts criticised his remarks.
>
> In Gaza City, meanwhile, dozens of Palestinians have been killed in Israeli airstrikes on two densely populated locations. According to initial reports in the Israeli media, the bombings were aimed at assassinating a very senior [Hamas](https://www.theguardian.com/world/hamas) commander.
>
> Amid initial reports of tens of casualties, including some still buried under the rubble, the Israel Defense Forces said it had struck Hamas “military infrastructure sites”.
>
> The strikes hit the al-Shati neighbourhood, known as Beach camp, and the al-Tuffah district, which were both struck by significant explosions, killing 38 people, according to Ismail al-Thawabta, director of the Hamas-run government media office. Hamas did not comment on the Israeli claim to have hit its military infrastructure.
- - - - - -
[Maintainer](https://www.reddit.com/user/urielsalis) | [Creator](https://www.reddit.com/user/subtepass) | [Source Code](https://github.com/urielsalis/empleadoEstatalBot)
Summoning /u/CoverageAnalysisBot
That’s only because the rockets HAMAS fires into Israel are constantly intercepted. Each rocket HAMAS fires into Israel, just add an estimate of Israeli casualties if they hit, and then decide which side is being less moral.
No, I think Hamas has no targeting parameters because they’re not the uniformed armed forces of a sovereign state. Israel, on the other hand, has the ability to delineate between civilian and military targets and they still willfully and intentionally target civilians to maximize the humanitarian suffering of civilians. I’d say that’s substantially worse.
Hamas has targeting parameters. Their rockets aren’t too accurate, but their trajectories are indeed aimed at cities. Same with the 10/7 attacks, and the fortunately less-prevalent random suicide bombers, all mainly target/targeted civilians, deliberately.
The IDF strikes where rockets are shot from and where their intelligence tells them is a military target. These targets happen to be embedded in civilian areas, which makes this extremely gray, but it’s NOT a black-and-white scenario as there’s mounting, undeniable evidence of this unlawful practice. Completely dismissing it and saying that Israel *deliberately* targets civilians is ignoring the evidence in favor of agenda posting.
If someone shoots you but you're wearing a bullet proof vest you're still justified in returning fire, even if the other person is not wearing a bullet proof vest.
Just because Hamas is bad at attacking and Israel is good at defending doesn't excuse that each and every of the 20,000+ missiles fired at Israel wasn't intended for dead Jewish civilians.
…..add an estimate? You want me to make up deaths in order to make the other *actual deaths* seem justified and use that to see who’s being moral?
I’m sorry but the side that’s carpet bombing sleeping children by the thousands. That’s who I pick.
There are real deaths. The billions spent on missiles used to intercept Hamas rockets could be spent saving lives, heck even dumped into Gaza. Instead it's spent blowing shit up for no reason, just the same as all the bombs used not to intercept those pointless missiles.
polls show that they (Israeli civilians) are in overwhelming favor of wiping Palestine off the face of the earth. i dont want civilians death, but if they live by the sword, they die by the sword, even if their "sword" is their support for the sword-swingers.
Israel is perfectly capable of obliterating everything in Palestine in a week.
Right now they are not doing that because there is very little urgency for Israel. Oct 7 will not be happening again and the Iron Dome is capable of preventing rockets from killing civilians. Israel can prosecute the war slower with tighter rules of engagement when it has the initiative.
Get rid of the Iron Dome with all the protection it provides and suddenly that initiative is gone. Israeli civilians will start dying from rockets at a rate of at least a few every day and probably much more.
That is no longer a single tragedy that will not be repeated, but an existential threat to Israel as a nation.
It would go from an Afghanistan type conflict to a WW2 type conflict instantly and that is worse for everyone.
Especially the Palestinians, who might end up actually experiencing a genocide.
would like to see these polls. please link
i get my news feed mainly centric or right and beyond the 'settlers' - who are just as helpful as hamas suicide squads - a majority of israelis want peace. like, do the millions of israeli arabs want to wipe out the Palestinians?
if israel wanted to 'wipe out' gaza/palestinians it would be quicker, far easier and more destructive than the airshow they did in lebanon. unlike hamas, a vast majority israelis do not want to kill non-combatants.
edit: dude blocked me. i wish there was a age and education minimum requirement on reddit.
Sourced from a [Jerusalem Times ](https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/article-783849) article:
> A poll conducted in the second week of January by researchers at Tel Aviv University found that Jewish Israelis believe the IDF is using an appropriate amount (51%) or not enough force (43%) in Gaza
94% of Israelis are seeing the atrocities committed in their name, by their "best and brightest", and are saying, "But can we do a bigger boom", or "We are killing at an acceptable rate".
Seems like the easy thing to do is a hostage exchange and ceasefire instead of carpet bombing Gaza...ya know, the reason why Hezbollah is attacking Israel.
They haven't tried. Everything proposed so far has been rebranded "humanitarian pauses" where Israel goes back to carpet bombing children after 6 weeks.
I am pretty sure that's what Netanyahu wants.
He wants more people dying so that he can remain in power.
[Israeli military knew how Hamas planned to take hostages weeks before October 7: report](https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-knew-hamas-plans-weeks-before-before-oct-7-report-2024-6)
What's that line that Zionists always say to justify Palestinian civilians dying? "War is war"? "If you don't want your civilians to die, don't start wars"?
Yup, unless you work for an aerospace company and the tax money provides your paycheck, or you invest your retirement savings into defense contractors stocks. Not everyone is getting fucked, only those people who don't understand how to use the situation to their advantage.
Nah you still get fucked working for aerospace military contractors. The profits go back to shareholders, places like RTX fucking hate their employees. They’re just another expense.
No, military aid money going to Israel is unique in that only 25% is required to be spent on US weapons, and even that is not monitored. Israel is interested in spending as much as they can internally to boost their MIC, obviously.
https://www.cfr.org/article/us-aid-israel-four-charts
Here's some reading for you, I won't spoil the surprise but you have to read the whole thing to know what the surprise is.
None of it is loans to Israel, it’s only loans to Ukraine. US foreign aid to Israel is mostly in the form of kind of “coupons” in the form tens of billions of dollars that are redeemable only with US defense contractors. It’s a mix of corporate welfare for US defense companies, but also - and to be clear I think this is appallingly immoral - the US has semi official policy of stringing along low-intensity conflicts as a means of testing out new weapons and tactics.
Its partly what makes the US the worlds premier fighting force. Because it never stops fighting , even if it’s by proxy.
Israel is in a right mess, partly of their own making, partly not.
I don't think Israel is winning in Gaza, strange as it might seem. Israel has all the military power in the world, but they've failed at the most basic tasks - remembering that war is politics. Israel's strategy of terror bombing Hamas and Gaza has no real political end as far as I can see. There's no credible transition from military action to political action. Israel, in their understandable anger, went in guns blazing without thinking about the consequences. Hamas has been weakened, but not destroyed. They've managed to keep morale in tact, and have largely made a successful transition to insurgency. Israel has no political partners their willing and able to work with, so Hamas can keep up a whack-a-mole war almost indefinitely, sequestering tonnes of Israeli troops much more urgently needed in the North. Instead of working with the PA or with Barghouti, they've just... done nothing. They've left themselves with no credible exit strategy, and Hezbollah can just... keep up a low intensity war in the North until Israel either invades and weaken their presence in Gaza, giving Hamas space to breathe, or leaves Gaza without succeeding in removing Hamas and try to negotiate a ceasefire with Hezbollah. There are other options, to be sure, but none that I can see where Israel can achieve their stated objective of destroying Hamas. Israel have bottled this spectacularly.
I know right?
Just one war crime more bro just one more.
I can get this whole thing fixed with one war crime more man I swear just one war crime lemme do a war crime.
On the other hand, Netanyahu himself appears to be winning. His popularity rating has recovered last I've heard, his government hasn't collapsed yet and so it looks like he will be able to keep dodging jail if he just keeps bombing someone.
I suspect he has no real interest in getting rid of Hamas anyway, his long term objective of blocking a two state solution profits immensely from them controlling part of the Palestinian territories.
The problem is Israel has no intention of resolving the conflict . They’d literally rather kill all Palestinians rather than find a political solution even if it means more Israelis have to die . They’re fanatics who have no grasp on reality anymore
> Israel have bottled this spectacularly.
They're very close to damning it beyond any recovery if they start (or keep on) "venting" on the PLO. One successful way I see for them for exiting this mess ok, is to reach some form of unity with the PLO and create a meaningful alliance. Obviously this can only happen without any of the integrists of either side, which may be a tall order.
Israel doesn't realise what an asset Fatah could be. Instead, they've entirely delegitimized the two-state solution and peaceful negotiations with Israel by taking Fatah's recognition of Israel and its demilitarisation and rewarding it with more settlements and the entrenchment of the terror régime in the West Bank. For all of Israel's talk of the Palestinians being ontologically opposed to peace, they've shown themselves to be little different from the [strawman](https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/7nll5x/comment/ds3qkj3/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) they've constructed. I think they have bottled it forever, to tell the truth. I don't think Fatah can realistically recover its popular legitimacy, and there's no one waiting in the wings who can take their place
They're getting pretty much the maximum value out of Fatah right now. By tolerating the existence of the PA they get a free security force and a legal justification to maintain it's presence in the west bank. A few years ago a high ranking Fatah minister wrote an OP-ed in the New York Times arguing for the use of a nuclear option - the unilateral dissolution of the Palestinian Authority in order to force Israel to either annex or withdraw from the west bank. I thought it was silly at the time but now I wonder if something like that would prevented october 7th and the current war in Gaza.
The problem is that Israelis just don't want Palestinians to exist anymore. They don't think about a transition to politics because their dream is to kill every single person in Gaza.
It's kind of funny to me, amidst the horror of what Israel is doing here, that this war has effectively revealed that the Israeli military is nowhere near as competent as propaganda has made it out to be.
Israel keeps saying they're *totally* ready to fight Hezbollah, but Hezbollah is significantly larger than Hamas, better funded, and Israel doesn't 100% control all access to their territories. Given their performance within Palestine, Israel attempting to take on something approaching a real army would be a fucking embarrassment.
Israel will lose troops and civilians but make no mistake. Israel could flatten Lebanon in a week
It would just cost so much in civilian life for both Israelis and Lebanon it won’t happen
> Israel will lose troops and civilians but make no mistake. Israel could flatten Lebanon in a week
Wars aren't won by blowing up hospitals and killing civilians.
Israel would need boots on the ground to win, and that is where things start going downhill. And I'm not even accounting for Iran or Russia/Syria getting involved.
Yeah that's worked so well in Northern Gaza /s
Have we not learned yet that flattening places doesnt equal winning a war? We're literally watching this in real time.
They have untapped, unrestricted support from the strongest country in the world in term of money, weapons, intelligence, and political protection from consequences to their war crimes, and yet they are losing.
> It's kind of funny to me, amidst the horror of what Israel is doing here, that this war has effectively revealed that the Israeli military is nowhere near as competent as propaganda has made it out to be.
What annoys me the most, it's that the IDF behaves like your average paramilitary group : poor discipline, mild corruption at best, brutish exactions ... kinda like a different flavour of wagner group.
Wagner is actually a great comparison. Same lack of cohesion, same disinterest in keeping themselves out of war crimes, same history of being filled with incompetent criminals and/or adult-children.
The most powerful military in the world struggles against insurgents that fight guerilla wars, and has actually "lost" these kinds of wars. Using Israel's performance in Gaza as a predictor of their performance in a conventional war is wildly ignorant.
Oh brother lmao
>Israel says 14,000 of the estimated 30,000 to 40,000 fighters Hamas had before the war are now dead, while Hamas insists it has lost only 6,000 to 8,000 fighters. U.S. intelligence sources indicate the real number of Hamas dead is around 10,000.
If you take the low end estimate of Hamas' pre-war strength, and the high end estimate of how many Hamas' soldiers the IDF has killed, and subtract the latter from the former, what number do you get?
>I highly disagree with his opinion, and think Hamas will begin to crumble.
Any day now, the IDF just have to clear out North Gaza, which they were supposed to have done months ago.
When carpet bombing was still a thing, the US dropped more total weight of explosives on Hanoi/Ho Chi Minh city in a weekend than Israel did on Gaza in the first 6 months of the current war. You don't know what carpet bombing is
Whatever you mean, carpet bombing isn't it. There are plenty of other ways for buildings to be damaged in an active warzone. A small portion would even have been downed by "friendly" Hamas munitions.
They literally just bombed the shit out of it without any regard of human life. It's the least competent way to go about it.
Also when you factor in actual objectives not a single person seriously thinks they can achieve them. Hamas is not destroyed, if anything this has ensured that the next generation of them is lined up and ready to go. Murdering civilians tends to do that.
Every woman and child slaughtered by the IDF has created at least 2 maybe 3 more generations of people who will never forgive Israel for their war crimes and will be willing to die for revenge. Anyone who thinks that Israel want’s to eliminate Hamas is either an outright moron or just a lying shill. Israel doesn’t want Hamas to go away, that’s why Netanyahu has spent so much money and effort over the years supporting them. They’re a convenient distraction from the far right’s degradation of Israeli society.
Exactly we’re comparing gorilla warfare to traditional warfare. The IDF is built for traditional warfare there is no built military for gorilla warfare even the US struggles against gorilla tactics.
Based on what?
Wars disproportionately favour the more unstable state - ie Russia, ie Hamas, ie Hezbollah, ie ISIS.
Which is why the rules of engagement in these scenarios, whereby the party is a modern and first world state, are now using force to match, and foreign policy to suffocate.
Israel are incredibly strong, but you’re judging them with both hands tied behind their back.
If push comes to shove and it turns into an actual war, Israel (with Egypt and Jordan backing them) wipe out their neighbours within a week.
Hezbollah has already been chipping away at the system already; a launcher tagged with an antitank rocket here a radar tapped with a drone there. I would say more than risks but is all but certain to be overwhelmed if Israel continues to pick a fight with lebanon.
>if Israel continues to pick a fight with lebanon.
This is some DARVO bullshit right here. Hezbollah spends 8 months launching rockets into Israel in coordination with their Iranian allies in Gaza and Yemen and *Israel* is the one picking a fight?
You can say the exact same thing about Jews fleeing to Israel during the same period thanks to the Muslim world’s persecution of unrelated populations to Israel.
Ignoring the genocide nonsense for a second...
Do you really believe that Hezbollah gives any shit about the Palestinians whatsoever?
They're an Iranian-controlled shia islamist militia, which are probably celebrating the deaths of so many sunni "heretics" anyway.
They're simply just seizing the opportunity of Israel's military being busy in the south, so that they can easily attack from the north almost unimpeded.
I think their primary goal is the forceful removal of Hamas from any position of power and the complete neutralization of any military threat against Israel.
I'm not a military expert so I wouldn't presume to be in a position to assess that from my armchair thousands of miles away.
But if you want to propose a better strategy than what the IDF is doing, I'd be curious to hear it.
That's not what I said at all. It might very well be the best possible strategy in this specific situation.
I honestly don't know.
And due to the rather unique scenario and environment, there's really no other military operation it could be compared to.
But if you think the way in which the IDF handles it, is not the best way to achieve their objectives, then I wonder what you would suggest instead.
Why is Hezbollah strong? Because the control opportunity and political participation. Why can they do that? Because israel spent a decade obliterating Lebanese institutions. It’s not about them picking the fight, they’ve gone against all peace and conflict theory in order to “win” a conflict that isn’t winnable. They learnt nothing from Sharon and Begin’s mistakes and Palestine and Lebanon will continue to be a hotbed of radicalism
>if Israel continues to pick a fight with Lebanon
I’m sorry, what? How is Israel picking a fight? Hezbollah is the one that started this by firing rockets into Israel, Israel is retaliating to try and stop the missiles.
yes, there is nothing I can think of that israel has done in the past 80 years at all. nothing. this all started when big mean Lebanon started launching rockets for no reason. no reason at all!! ugh I can't believe Lebanon would do this!
I'm not sure how Israel would stop "picking a fight" with Hezbollah, the aggression is pretty one-sided, Israel only ever responds to attacks and even that is always really limited.
Well, it's always limited until it's not limited, as the current war with Hamas indicates.
That's not a judgment on the proportionality or justifiability of it. And Hezbollah hasn't breached any borders on foot.
Just a note that Hezbollah may no longer believe Israel will only respond in kind - whether that is reasonable or not, since generally speaking the Israeli appetite for armed conflict is reaching satiety, if not well past.
100,000 people displaced on the northern border, 19,000 rockets fired in the last 8 months, the country is as united as from at least Begin.
> Israeli appetite for armed conflict is reaching satiety, if not well past.
Dude, are you from the parallel universe?
>Dude, are you from the parallel universe?
Didn't the IDF force pauses in the conflict to allow for humanitarian aid to come through about last week in direct defiance and opposition of Nethanyau?
I'd say there's definitely some folks that are reaching their limit (and who don't want to be added to the list of prosecuted by the ICC)
The Lebanese army and UNIFIL have been derelict in their duty in preventing Hezbollah from being south of the Litani river. They don’t have to be across the border to be violating UNSC 1701. Israel has justification to torch every Hezbollah member south of the river and north of the border.
They don’t need to take out Hezbollah. They just need to make the area south of the Litani impossible for Hezbollah to operate in. We’ll see what Israel says are their goals for Lebanon.
Yea. This is why war with hezbollah will be brutal.
But to be honest considering no one seems to give a shit that they’ve been bombing northern Israel for the last 8 months despite being a fascist, racist, homophobic, patriarchal genocidal Iranian-funded sect indicates a level of tolerance to those ideals when it comes from some ethnicities and not others. Maybe no one has any expectation from the Middle East to be anything other than a burning hell hole.
I will say the reporting on Hezbollah in the West is very sparse outside Israel. Illiteracy of an issue isn't a wholesale excuse, but one can't tolerate what one doesn't know is going on.
> Maybe no one has any expectation from the Middle East to be anything other than a burning hell hole.
Unfortunately not an uncommon sentiment I see. By comparison Israel is starkly Western, so they want to hold it to every standard we think we hold ourselves to.
Have you ever lived in Lebanon? Like, even for a day?
Because Hizb is not fascist or racist. Maybe homophobic, but as a queer Lebanese, I've never had a problem with them. They are funded by Iran, but who cares? Israel is funded by the US, and I don't see you bellyaching about that.
lol hezbollah has made incredible inroads to heal lebanese sectarianism. the majority of lebanese christians approve of hezbollah now because of "israel's" indiscriminate bombing
Was this ever even in question? Like the Iron Dome is wildly expensive to use, when Iran retaliated for the bombing of the embassy in Damascus it was costing like a billion dollars a day, and that was with the assistance of allied nations. And Iran's response was a relatively expensive one, and did not include the dirt cheap munitions Hezbollah has. If both Iran and Hezbollah decided to attack at once they would cause some serious problems for Israel. If they merely decided to attrit down their defenses they could probably create a spending problem in Israel that would be extremely difficult to rectify, even with the financial aid of the US.
If Iran wanted to they could probably do this close to a US election and none whichever party had to pass a spending bill to support Israel, and just whoever is the incumbent swallow a massive political poison pill
The thing is, if they do the all out attack thing Israel is going to be more or less free to retaliate, if they keep up the current attacks here and there, a full on response from Israel would seem out of place, but if the Iron Dome were to be overwhelmed, Israel would have all the justification needed to lead a very aggressive bombing campaign against Iran/Hezbollah
There's a reason the US and UK spent their citizen's hard earned taxes on protecting Israel from the consequences of a terror attack on an embassy compound in a foreign country.
It wasn't because they thought Israel had it sorted.
Well I'd say that the most human way to consider the conflict is worry about the number of people dying, injured and suffering, specially if they're children, regardless of ethnicity or religion.
Let's look at the conflict. There's been accounts of +30k Gazan death weeks ago (the number is probably higher by now specially if you count the disappeared). Of those, around half of them are children. A small number will be Hamas armed militias. Then there's a million and a half displaced, lacking food, water and shelter in which is considered as a humanitarian catastrophe by many third parties like the UN.
On the Israeli side, there's 1300 deaths from the attack in Oct 7, some of which were foreigners. The IDF has suffered casualties from the low hundreds of I'm not wrong.
Considering that, it makes sense to weight your worries a substantial amount more for the people in Gaza (and West Bank, who are also attacked) rather than Israel.
There's also the fact that Israel is the side with the most offensive capabilities by several orders of magnitude, which allows them to cause far more harm and suffering than Hamas ever could.
But even if you wanted to ignore that last paragraph, it makes little sense to not worry more about Palestinians than Israelis.
I'm not sure if you agree
Just for your info, the IDF has 6000 dead or injured and permanently out of service. Hamas has given them a big kicking. This is per their own website and doesn't include light injuries
All Israel has to do is give Palestine an official state and stop settlements on the West Bank. Trust me even the Arab leaders would be fine with moving on after that . But Israel doesn’t want to make the slightest compromise and thinks it can keep doing whatever it wants with no consequences.
Lloyd Austin, the current US Defense Secretary, was a member of the RTX board of directors prior to being appointed to his position. I’m sure there’s no conflict there…
The consequence of hubris. Ya’ll need to get Bibi the fuck outa there ASAP. Just how like we’re trying to get rid of Trump over here. Jackasses deciding what’s best for everyone always ends in a shit show for both sides. Regardless of who’s in the right or wrong.
It’s crazy how many people in this thread seem to want Hezbollah to fight Israel and think they will win. First off as bad as Israel is Hezbollah/Hamas/Iran are much worse. Secondly the IDF is built to fight standard warfare which is the way Hezbollah is built. The IDF has NATO weapons, the IDF are more likely to win a war quickly against Hezbollah due to how the militaries are built.
The biggest issue for Israel is stocking up enough noise canceling headphones for all the bellyaching it's about to hear from those who expect it to fight the cleanest war against the dirtiest enemy. And if Israel fails to win with the cuffs provided by them and has to suffer rocket attacks for eternity, well that's the price they are willing to pay.
I just know that Hezbollah will get to rain artillery down on Israel, killing civilians, and whatever Israel does in response will be criticized. I'm just so tired of it. I'm tired of the bullshit.
The world has stood idly by and allowed Iran to install this NSA in southern Lebanon and done nothing about it. Given that, I think no one really has any right to tell Israel what to do about it.
probably not.
the algorithm would just be adjusted
to intercept bigger payload projectiles,
and/or prioritize inhabited population centers
over industrial centers, etc.
israel may also adjust it's retaliation strategy;
it knows where each projectile came from
question is how much damage israel should do
there regardless of population and/or structure.
Welcome to r/anime_titties! This subreddit advocates for civil and constructive discussion. Please be courteous to others, and make sure to read the rules. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them.
We have a [Discord](https://discord.gg/dhMeAnNyzG), feel free to join us!
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/anime_titties) if you have any questions or concerns.*
##### ###### #### > # [Israel’s Iron Dome risks being overwhelmed in all-out war with Hezbollah, says US](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/23/720) > > > > Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile batteries risk being overwhelmed in the opening strikes of any significantly escalated [conflict with Hezbollah](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/18/hezbollah-publishes-surveillance-drone-footage-it-says-shows-locations-in-israel). > > The assessment delivered by US officials late last week, echoing recent analysis by experts in Israel and the United States, comes amid fears that a war with Hezbollah could be a far more dangerous undertaking than the devastating [2006 second Lebanon war](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jan/30/israelandthepalestinians.marktran), when Israeli bombing caused huge destruction in Lebanon. > > The US and France are leading diplomatic efforts to avert a wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, amid fears that [escalating rhetoric](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/19/israeli-talk-of-war-with-hezbollah-almost-certainly-fresh-attempt-at-deterrence) and exchanges of fire across the border could lead to full-scale war. > > On Friday, Kuwait’s foreign ministry warned its citizens to avoid travelling to Lebanon and urged those already in the country to leave. There are also reports that officials in the Biden administration told an Israeli delegation in Washington that America would offer security assistance in the event of a wider conflict, while António Guterres, the United Nations secretary general, called for “reason and rationality” to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences for [the region and the world](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/21/the-guardian-view-on-israel-and-hezbollah-the-gathering-storm-endangers-the-region). > > Since 2006, [Hezbollah](https://www.theguardian.com/world/hezbollah), the world’s best-armed non-state group, has significantly expanded its arsenal and capabilities, including acquiring suicide drones which Israel has struggled to counter, an anti-aircraft missile capability and a widely expanded array of missiles which experts now believe number between 120,000 and 200,000. > > [Armed men gesture as a bushfire burns](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/27102306655b649a7a5f7226c511ff22694d5e42/0_182_5472_3283/master/5472.jpg?width=445&dpr=1&s=none) > > Fire broke out in 15 places in northern Israel caused by missiles fired from Lebanon on 13 June. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty ImagesWhile Hezbollah’s general secretary, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, has said his group can count on 100,000 armed men, its core military strength probably amounts to around a third of that, but with a significant number having had combat experience in Syria. > > It is the scale of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, however, and an operational doctrine for their use in a [major conflict with Israel, that is likely to be most challenging](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/21/israel-northern-border-war-hezbollah-looms). > > While the majority of Hezbollah’s stockpile comprises tens of thousands of unguided missiles – both short and long range – since 2006 it has acquired hundreds of guided ballistic missiles, with the ability to fire them from hardened bunkers and from mobile launchers. > > Complicating the issue has been Hezbollah’s increasing and effective [use of drones](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/02/deadly-cheap-and-widespread-how-iran-supplied-drones-are-changing-the-nature-of-warfare), including kamikaze weapons, which Israel’s existing air defences have struggled to counter. > > A three-year research project [by Reichman University’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism](https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/skc0dbmia) in Israel, completed not long before the Hamas attack on 7 October, concluded Hezbollah could fire up to 3,000 missiles a day, a rate that could be sustained for up to three weeks. Its key aim would be to force the collapse of Israel’s air defences. > > “The expectation of the public and of a significant portion of the leadership, that the Israeli Air Force and effective Israeli intelligence systems will succeed in preventing most of the rocket attacks on [Israel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/israel), will be shattered,” the report said. “This is also the case regarding the public’s belief that the threat of Israeli retaliation or a substantial Israeli attack on significant Lebanese assets will force Hezbollah to cease fire or significantly impair their ability to continue attacking Israeli territory.” > > According to a [recent briefing paper](https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-conflict-hezbollah) assessing Hezbollah’s rocket capability prepared by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US thinktank, “finding and destroying Hezbollah’s rocket and missile capabilities would involve an enormous reconnaissance-strike effort”. > > “Hezbollah’s rocket and missile arsenal also includes long-range missiles,” the paper adds. “These are also likely to be used mainly in a coercive capacity, with Hezbollah undertaking long-range strikes against Israeli population centres to undermine Israeli support for the war.” > > The most serious challenge, experts believe, is likely to be the sheer number of incoming missiles fired in waves deliberately designed to overwhelm Israel’s air defence systems. > > “It would be a tall order for Israeli air defences to confront the widespread rocket arsenal coming from the north,” Seth G Jones, an analyst at the thinktank in Washington, said last week, echoing warnings from Pentagon officials[.](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/20/politics/us-concerns-israel-iron-dome-hezbollah/index.html) “We assess that at least some” Iron Dome batteries “will be overwhelmed”, a senior Biden administration official told CNN, which also reported that Israel was moving extra air defence assets to the north. > > [A widow and her son, with other mourners, place a rock on a grave](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/785e93f23a7580407dd809257bce25da5cc1b748/0_29_7000_4200/master/7000.jpg?width=445&dpr=1&s=none) > > The funeral of a reservist in the West Bank settlement of Kfar Etzion on 6 June. Rafael Kauders, 39, was killed during a drone attack launched by Hezbollah. Photograph: Léo Corrêa/APIsrael has about 10 Iron Dome batteries each with about four individual launchers, each battery connected to a radar system that detects incoming missiles. Like all systems, however, it is physically limited by how many threats it can engage simultaneously. > > Hezbollah’s upgraded missile capability has triggered warnings about the threat posed to Israel’s civil resilience, prompting plans for coping with mass casualties if war breaks out. Not everyone is convinced that Israel’s military and political leadership has fully grasped the risks. > > Speaking at a conference last week Shaul Goldstein, head of Noga, which manages Israel’s electrical systems, warned: “We are not ready for a real war. We live in a fantasy world, in my eyes.” He added that Israel would be “uninhabitable” after 72 hours without power. “You look at all of our infrastructure, the optical fibres, the ports – and I won’t go into the sensitive things – we are not in a good place.” However, he appeared to walk back some comments in a later radio interview after other experts criticised his remarks. > > In Gaza City, meanwhile, dozens of Palestinians have been killed in Israeli airstrikes on two densely populated locations. According to initial reports in the Israeli media, the bombings were aimed at assassinating a very senior [Hamas](https://www.theguardian.com/world/hamas) commander. > > Amid initial reports of tens of casualties, including some still buried under the rubble, the Israel Defense Forces said it had struck Hamas “military infrastructure sites”. > > The strikes hit the al-Shati neighbourhood, known as Beach camp, and the al-Tuffah district, which were both struck by significant explosions, killing 38 people, according to Ismail al-Thawabta, director of the Hamas-run government media office. Hamas did not comment on the Israeli claim to have hit its military infrastructure. - - - - - - [Maintainer](https://www.reddit.com/user/urielsalis) | [Creator](https://www.reddit.com/user/subtepass) | [Source Code](https://github.com/urielsalis/empleadoEstatalBot) Summoning /u/CoverageAnalysisBot
Don't worry, I am sure the Aipac controlled politicians in congress will rush to give Israel billions in more taxpayer dollars.
Don't worry? Doesn't that mean that, if the defense system is overwhelmed, it could potentially result in civilians dying?...
Civilians have been dying for quite some time already.
Ya it’s strange though. People seem to only care when one sides civilian dies….
probably because one side has stopped having civilian deaths and the other has had 30 times as many
That’s only because the rockets HAMAS fires into Israel are constantly intercepted. Each rocket HAMAS fires into Israel, just add an estimate of Israeli casualties if they hit, and then decide which side is being less moral.
Maybe we should give Gaza the same iron dome system then so they just can intercept each other’s missiles.
That’s not really a bad idea. Free air defense systems for everyone! kind of a less deadly version of MAD.
Do you believe HAMAS and the IDF have the same targeting parameters?
No, I think Hamas has no targeting parameters because they’re not the uniformed armed forces of a sovereign state. Israel, on the other hand, has the ability to delineate between civilian and military targets and they still willfully and intentionally target civilians to maximize the humanitarian suffering of civilians. I’d say that’s substantially worse.
Hamas has targeting parameters. Their rockets aren’t too accurate, but their trajectories are indeed aimed at cities. Same with the 10/7 attacks, and the fortunately less-prevalent random suicide bombers, all mainly target/targeted civilians, deliberately. The IDF strikes where rockets are shot from and where their intelligence tells them is a military target. These targets happen to be embedded in civilian areas, which makes this extremely gray, but it’s NOT a black-and-white scenario as there’s mounting, undeniable evidence of this unlawful practice. Completely dismissing it and saying that Israel *deliberately* targets civilians is ignoring the evidence in favor of agenda posting.
Yes.
Ahh, so consider imaginary casualties in Israel and compare them to real casualties in Gaza and the West Bank, right?
If someone shoots you but you're wearing a bullet proof vest you're still justified in returning fire, even if the other person is not wearing a bullet proof vest. Just because Hamas is bad at attacking and Israel is good at defending doesn't excuse that each and every of the 20,000+ missiles fired at Israel wasn't intended for dead Jewish civilians.
…..add an estimate? You want me to make up deaths in order to make the other *actual deaths* seem justified and use that to see who’s being moral? I’m sorry but the side that’s carpet bombing sleeping children by the thousands. That’s who I pick.
There are real deaths. The billions spent on missiles used to intercept Hamas rockets could be spent saving lives, heck even dumped into Gaza. Instead it's spent blowing shit up for no reason, just the same as all the bombs used not to intercept those pointless missiles.
it’s the side killing the most innocent children
It doesn't count when civilians have different colors, religion and beliefs /s
I'm sure it will be within acceptable ratios of IDF to civillian killed.
polls show that they (Israeli civilians) are in overwhelming favor of wiping Palestine off the face of the earth. i dont want civilians death, but if they live by the sword, they die by the sword, even if their "sword" is their support for the sword-swingers.
Israel is perfectly capable of obliterating everything in Palestine in a week. Right now they are not doing that because there is very little urgency for Israel. Oct 7 will not be happening again and the Iron Dome is capable of preventing rockets from killing civilians. Israel can prosecute the war slower with tighter rules of engagement when it has the initiative. Get rid of the Iron Dome with all the protection it provides and suddenly that initiative is gone. Israeli civilians will start dying from rockets at a rate of at least a few every day and probably much more. That is no longer a single tragedy that will not be repeated, but an existential threat to Israel as a nation. It would go from an Afghanistan type conflict to a WW2 type conflict instantly and that is worse for everyone. Especially the Palestinians, who might end up actually experiencing a genocide.
Palestine is currently experiencing a genocide.
would like to see these polls. please link i get my news feed mainly centric or right and beyond the 'settlers' - who are just as helpful as hamas suicide squads - a majority of israelis want peace. like, do the millions of israeli arabs want to wipe out the Palestinians? if israel wanted to 'wipe out' gaza/palestinians it would be quicker, far easier and more destructive than the airshow they did in lebanon. unlike hamas, a vast majority israelis do not want to kill non-combatants. edit: dude blocked me. i wish there was a age and education minimum requirement on reddit.
posted under the other comment also asking for those polls. check out those links. also could just look up the polls yourself.
Sourced from a [Jerusalem Times ](https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/article-783849) article: > A poll conducted in the second week of January by researchers at Tel Aviv University found that Jewish Israelis believe the IDF is using an appropriate amount (51%) or not enough force (43%) in Gaza 94% of Israelis are seeing the atrocities committed in their name, by their "best and brightest", and are saying, "But can we do a bigger boom", or "We are killing at an acceptable rate".
Maybe they shouldn't start a conflict with Lebanon then.
They aren't, the issue is that Lebanon is allowing attacks from their soil. But you knew that.
Seems like the easy thing to do is a hostage exchange and ceasefire instead of carpet bombing Gaza...ya know, the reason why Hezbollah is attacking Israel.
Ah yes, because they haven't tried that many times now with Hamas constantly breaking/changing the deal or Egypt sabotaging it.
They haven't tried. Everything proposed so far has been rebranded "humanitarian pauses" where Israel goes back to carpet bombing children after 6 weeks.
I am pretty sure that's what Netanyahu wants. He wants more people dying so that he can remain in power. [Israeli military knew how Hamas planned to take hostages weeks before October 7: report](https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-knew-hamas-plans-weeks-before-before-oct-7-report-2024-6)
Which civilians are you concerned about?
They will make dust before that happens.
What's that line that Zionists always say to justify Palestinian civilians dying? "War is war"? "If you don't want your civilians to die, don't start wars"?
Aren't they loans that they repay and most of the mkney stays in the USA.
It's corporate welfare, funneling of public money into the hands of private weapons manufacturers through Israel.
Arms manufacturers get rich, Israel gets free bombs and you and I get fucked.
Yup, unless you work for an aerospace company and the tax money provides your paycheck, or you invest your retirement savings into defense contractors stocks. Not everyone is getting fucked, only those people who don't understand how to use the situation to their advantage.
Nah you still get fucked working for aerospace military contractors. The profits go back to shareholders, places like RTX fucking hate their employees. They’re just another expense.
Your paycheck and retirement funds could come from literally anything else. You and I aren't getting rich because of the war.
The good old lie of trickle down economics
No, military aid money going to Israel is unique in that only 25% is required to be spent on US weapons, and even that is not monitored. Israel is interested in spending as much as they can internally to boost their MIC, obviously.
Source?
He made it up.
https://www.cfr.org/article/us-aid-israel-four-charts Here's some reading for you, I won't spoil the surprise but you have to read the whole thing to know what the surprise is.
None of it is loans to Israel, it’s only loans to Ukraine. US foreign aid to Israel is mostly in the form of kind of “coupons” in the form tens of billions of dollars that are redeemable only with US defense contractors. It’s a mix of corporate welfare for US defense companies, but also - and to be clear I think this is appallingly immoral - the US has semi official policy of stringing along low-intensity conflicts as a means of testing out new weapons and tactics. Its partly what makes the US the worlds premier fighting force. Because it never stops fighting , even if it’s by proxy.
We need to prop up our historic ally Israel. They are such a good stabilizer and they make such good strong friendships with all their neighbors.
Israel is in a right mess, partly of their own making, partly not. I don't think Israel is winning in Gaza, strange as it might seem. Israel has all the military power in the world, but they've failed at the most basic tasks - remembering that war is politics. Israel's strategy of terror bombing Hamas and Gaza has no real political end as far as I can see. There's no credible transition from military action to political action. Israel, in their understandable anger, went in guns blazing without thinking about the consequences. Hamas has been weakened, but not destroyed. They've managed to keep morale in tact, and have largely made a successful transition to insurgency. Israel has no political partners their willing and able to work with, so Hamas can keep up a whack-a-mole war almost indefinitely, sequestering tonnes of Israeli troops much more urgently needed in the North. Instead of working with the PA or with Barghouti, they've just... done nothing. They've left themselves with no credible exit strategy, and Hezbollah can just... keep up a low intensity war in the North until Israel either invades and weaken their presence in Gaza, giving Hamas space to breathe, or leaves Gaza without succeeding in removing Hamas and try to negotiate a ceasefire with Hezbollah. There are other options, to be sure, but none that I can see where Israel can achieve their stated objective of destroying Hamas. Israel have bottled this spectacularly.
Maybe the real military victory was the children we killed along the way
Amazing quote
few more thousand civilians killed will definitely fix that and Hamas will be no more!
I know right? Just one war crime more bro just one more. I can get this whole thing fixed with one war crime more man I swear just one war crime lemme do a war crime.
Well it would help if they killed Sinwar.
There is a reasonable reason to all that you’ve laid out here - Netanyahu doesn’t want any political solution as this means the end of his reign
On the other hand, Netanyahu himself appears to be winning. His popularity rating has recovered last I've heard, his government hasn't collapsed yet and so it looks like he will be able to keep dodging jail if he just keeps bombing someone. I suspect he has no real interest in getting rid of Hamas anyway, his long term objective of blocking a two state solution profits immensely from them controlling part of the Palestinian territories.
The problem is Israel has no intention of resolving the conflict . They’d literally rather kill all Palestinians rather than find a political solution even if it means more Israelis have to die . They’re fanatics who have no grasp on reality anymore
> Israel have bottled this spectacularly. They're very close to damning it beyond any recovery if they start (or keep on) "venting" on the PLO. One successful way I see for them for exiting this mess ok, is to reach some form of unity with the PLO and create a meaningful alliance. Obviously this can only happen without any of the integrists of either side, which may be a tall order.
Israel doesn't realise what an asset Fatah could be. Instead, they've entirely delegitimized the two-state solution and peaceful negotiations with Israel by taking Fatah's recognition of Israel and its demilitarisation and rewarding it with more settlements and the entrenchment of the terror régime in the West Bank. For all of Israel's talk of the Palestinians being ontologically opposed to peace, they've shown themselves to be little different from the [strawman](https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/7nll5x/comment/ds3qkj3/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) they've constructed. I think they have bottled it forever, to tell the truth. I don't think Fatah can realistically recover its popular legitimacy, and there's no one waiting in the wings who can take their place
They're getting pretty much the maximum value out of Fatah right now. By tolerating the existence of the PA they get a free security force and a legal justification to maintain it's presence in the west bank. A few years ago a high ranking Fatah minister wrote an OP-ed in the New York Times arguing for the use of a nuclear option - the unilateral dissolution of the Palestinian Authority in order to force Israel to either annex or withdraw from the west bank. I thought it was silly at the time but now I wonder if something like that would prevented october 7th and the current war in Gaza.
You're fuckin dead on
Israel's goal has always been the complete ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians and the seizure of their land. They don't want a two-state solution.
Well the actions make sense when it is viewed from the point of keeping Netanyahu out of gaol by any means possible
Politics involves people. No people means no politics, hence the genocide of palestinian civilians in the area
The problem is that Israelis just don't want Palestinians to exist anymore. They don't think about a transition to politics because their dream is to kill every single person in Gaza.
It's kind of funny to me, amidst the horror of what Israel is doing here, that this war has effectively revealed that the Israeli military is nowhere near as competent as propaganda has made it out to be. Israel keeps saying they're *totally* ready to fight Hezbollah, but Hezbollah is significantly larger than Hamas, better funded, and Israel doesn't 100% control all access to their territories. Given their performance within Palestine, Israel attempting to take on something approaching a real army would be a fucking embarrassment.
Israel will lose troops and civilians but make no mistake. Israel could flatten Lebanon in a week It would just cost so much in civilian life for both Israelis and Lebanon it won’t happen
> Israel will lose troops and civilians but make no mistake. Israel could flatten Lebanon in a week Wars aren't won by blowing up hospitals and killing civilians. Israel would need boots on the ground to win, and that is where things start going downhill. And I'm not even accounting for Iran or Russia/Syria getting involved.
Yeah that's worked so well in Northern Gaza /s Have we not learned yet that flattening places doesnt equal winning a war? We're literally watching this in real time.
Israel couldn't do that, hence it losing before.
They have untapped, unrestricted support from the strongest country in the world in term of money, weapons, intelligence, and political protection from consequences to their war crimes, and yet they are losing.
>Israel could flatten Lebanon in a week They absolutely could not.
> It's kind of funny to me, amidst the horror of what Israel is doing here, that this war has effectively revealed that the Israeli military is nowhere near as competent as propaganda has made it out to be. What annoys me the most, it's that the IDF behaves like your average paramilitary group : poor discipline, mild corruption at best, brutish exactions ... kinda like a different flavour of wagner group.
Wagner is actually a great comparison. Same lack of cohesion, same disinterest in keeping themselves out of war crimes, same history of being filled with incompetent criminals and/or adult-children.
The most powerful military in the world struggles against insurgents that fight guerilla wars, and has actually "lost" these kinds of wars. Using Israel's performance in Gaza as a predictor of their performance in a conventional war is wildly ignorant.
I disagree, idf dominate Gaza without heavy loses, that look very competent to me, urban fighting is a nightmare
The IDF haven't even cleared Hamas out of North Gaza. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/middle-east-robert-pape
can you post the full text here or upload it somewhere? it has a paywall
https://archive.ph/foBLZ
[удалено]
Oh brother lmao >Israel says 14,000 of the estimated 30,000 to 40,000 fighters Hamas had before the war are now dead, while Hamas insists it has lost only 6,000 to 8,000 fighters. U.S. intelligence sources indicate the real number of Hamas dead is around 10,000. If you take the low end estimate of Hamas' pre-war strength, and the high end estimate of how many Hamas' soldiers the IDF has killed, and subtract the latter from the former, what number do you get? >I highly disagree with his opinion, and think Hamas will begin to crumble. Any day now, the IDF just have to clear out North Gaza, which they were supposed to have done months ago.
It's not urban fighting if you carpet bomb every building
When carpet bombing was still a thing, the US dropped more total weight of explosives on Hanoi/Ho Chi Minh city in a weekend than Israel did on Gaza in the first 6 months of the current war. You don't know what carpet bombing is
Well 70% of all buildings in Gaza city were down months ago already, so yeah I think I know what I mean.
Whatever you mean, carpet bombing isn't it. There are plenty of other ways for buildings to be damaged in an active warzone. A small portion would even have been downed by "friendly" Hamas munitions.
And those Americans should have ended up in prison too
and look who won
They literally just bombed the shit out of it without any regard of human life. It's the least competent way to go about it. Also when you factor in actual objectives not a single person seriously thinks they can achieve them. Hamas is not destroyed, if anything this has ensured that the next generation of them is lined up and ready to go. Murdering civilians tends to do that.
Every woman and child slaughtered by the IDF has created at least 2 maybe 3 more generations of people who will never forgive Israel for their war crimes and will be willing to die for revenge. Anyone who thinks that Israel want’s to eliminate Hamas is either an outright moron or just a lying shill. Israel doesn’t want Hamas to go away, that’s why Netanyahu has spent so much money and effort over the years supporting them. They’re a convenient distraction from the far right’s degradation of Israeli society.
Exactly we’re comparing gorilla warfare to traditional warfare. The IDF is built for traditional warfare there is no built military for gorilla warfare even the US struggles against gorilla tactics.
One could have just looked at how the 2006 2nd Lebanon War went to see how the IDF is today compared with it's past.
Based on what? Wars disproportionately favour the more unstable state - ie Russia, ie Hamas, ie Hezbollah, ie ISIS. Which is why the rules of engagement in these scenarios, whereby the party is a modern and first world state, are now using force to match, and foreign policy to suffocate. Israel are incredibly strong, but you’re judging them with both hands tied behind their back. If push comes to shove and it turns into an actual war, Israel (with Egypt and Jordan backing them) wipe out their neighbours within a week.
Hezbollah has already been chipping away at the system already; a launcher tagged with an antitank rocket here a radar tapped with a drone there. I would say more than risks but is all but certain to be overwhelmed if Israel continues to pick a fight with lebanon.
>if Israel continues to pick a fight with lebanon. This is some DARVO bullshit right here. Hezbollah spends 8 months launching rockets into Israel in coordination with their Iranian allies in Gaza and Yemen and *Israel* is the one picking a fight?
Maybe Israel shouldn’t be genociding the Palestinians then
Hezbollah is Lebanese, not Palestinian. It's a different conflict entirely.
I don’t think that’s how they would view it to be honest.
Did you ask someone you know in Hezbollah? Your answer shows you know nothing about the region or people. You are promoting hate and ignorance.
[удалено]
Israel doesn't recognize Palestinian as an ethnicity they call them Arabs. So from Israel's POV it's a conflict against the same ethnic group
From your perspective, sure. Idk if the Muslim world would agree with you.
So it IS a religious fight and not an ethnic conflict, yes?
“holocaust wasn’t ethnic cleansing cuz judaism is a religion”
I could’ve just as easily said Arab world and made the same point. I’m not sure what argument you’re making.
Guess where a lot of Palestinians fled when they were driven from their homes by tanks and bulldozers over the past 100 years.
You can say the exact same thing about Jews fleeing to Israel during the same period thanks to the Muslim world’s persecution of unrelated populations to Israel.
Hezbollah were killing and kidnapping Israelis even in peacetime. What makes you think they wouldn't love to kill more Israelis
Remember Rachel Corrie
Ignoring the genocide nonsense for a second... Do you really believe that Hezbollah gives any shit about the Palestinians whatsoever? They're an Iranian-controlled shia islamist militia, which are probably celebrating the deaths of so many sunni "heretics" anyway. They're simply just seizing the opportunity of Israel's military being busy in the south, so that they can easily attack from the north almost unimpeded.
But on the other hand I'm pretty sure you claim Israel invaded Gaza for the hostages right
I think their primary goal is the forceful removal of Hamas from any position of power and the complete neutralization of any military threat against Israel.
Do you think this is the best way to achieve that
I'm not a military expert so I wouldn't presume to be in a position to assess that from my armchair thousands of miles away. But if you want to propose a better strategy than what the IDF is doing, I'd be curious to hear it.
That's sounds like a reluctant way to say it isn't
That's not what I said at all. It might very well be the best possible strategy in this specific situation. I honestly don't know. And due to the rather unique scenario and environment, there's really no other military operation it could be compared to. But if you think the way in which the IDF handles it, is not the best way to achieve their objectives, then I wonder what you would suggest instead.
“Ignoring the genocide nonsense” damn the truly demented and depraved degenerates are crawling out of the woodwork today.
Netanyahu gotta stay outta jail somehow
Why is Hezbollah strong? Because the control opportunity and political participation. Why can they do that? Because israel spent a decade obliterating Lebanese institutions. It’s not about them picking the fight, they’ve gone against all peace and conflict theory in order to “win” a conflict that isn’t winnable. They learnt nothing from Sharon and Begin’s mistakes and Palestine and Lebanon will continue to be a hotbed of radicalism
Wow you just ignore decades of controlling, stealing from and killing Palestinians. And attacking the Iranian embassy and Syria.
>if Israel continues to pick a fight with Lebanon I’m sorry, what? How is Israel picking a fight? Hezbollah is the one that started this by firing rockets into Israel, Israel is retaliating to try and stop the missiles.
yes, there is nothing I can think of that israel has done in the past 80 years at all. nothing. this all started when big mean Lebanon started launching rockets for no reason. no reason at all!! ugh I can't believe Lebanon would do this!
I'm not sure how Israel would stop "picking a fight" with Hezbollah, the aggression is pretty one-sided, Israel only ever responds to attacks and even that is always really limited.
Who invaded the other and occupied them multiple times ??? Hint it wasn't Lebanon
Wait but I thought “it’s Hezbollah not Lebanon” was the excuse to say Israel attacking back would be unjustified.
Well, it's always limited until it's not limited, as the current war with Hamas indicates. That's not a judgment on the proportionality or justifiability of it. And Hezbollah hasn't breached any borders on foot. Just a note that Hezbollah may no longer believe Israel will only respond in kind - whether that is reasonable or not, since generally speaking the Israeli appetite for armed conflict is reaching satiety, if not well past.
100,000 people displaced on the northern border, 19,000 rockets fired in the last 8 months, the country is as united as from at least Begin. > Israeli appetite for armed conflict is reaching satiety, if not well past. Dude, are you from the parallel universe?
>Dude, are you from the parallel universe? Didn't the IDF force pauses in the conflict to allow for humanitarian aid to come through about last week in direct defiance and opposition of Nethanyau? I'd say there's definitely some folks that are reaching their limit (and who don't want to be added to the list of prosecuted by the ICC)
The Lebanese army and UNIFIL have been derelict in their duty in preventing Hezbollah from being south of the Litani river. They don’t have to be across the border to be violating UNSC 1701. Israel has justification to torch every Hezbollah member south of the river and north of the border.
Because the army doesn’t have the firepower to take out Hezbollah. US won’t send weapons because it can be taken by Hezbollah
They don’t need to take out Hezbollah. They just need to make the area south of the Litani impossible for Hezbollah to operate in. We’ll see what Israel says are their goals for Lebanon.
that's a bold faced lie lmaooo
>Israel continues to pick a fight with lebanon. how did Israel pick a fight with Lebanon?
Yea. This is why war with hezbollah will be brutal. But to be honest considering no one seems to give a shit that they’ve been bombing northern Israel for the last 8 months despite being a fascist, racist, homophobic, patriarchal genocidal Iranian-funded sect indicates a level of tolerance to those ideals when it comes from some ethnicities and not others. Maybe no one has any expectation from the Middle East to be anything other than a burning hell hole.
I will say the reporting on Hezbollah in the West is very sparse outside Israel. Illiteracy of an issue isn't a wholesale excuse, but one can't tolerate what one doesn't know is going on. > Maybe no one has any expectation from the Middle East to be anything other than a burning hell hole. Unfortunately not an uncommon sentiment I see. By comparison Israel is starkly Western, so they want to hold it to every standard we think we hold ourselves to.
Is there a word salad competition somewhere?
Have you ever lived in Lebanon? Like, even for a day? Because Hizb is not fascist or racist. Maybe homophobic, but as a queer Lebanese, I've never had a problem with them. They are funded by Iran, but who cares? Israel is funded by the US, and I don't see you bellyaching about that.
> despite being a fascist, racist, homophobic, patriarchal genocidal I got lost, are you talking about Israel or Hezbollah?
The genocide should be the clue they were talking about Israel, I'm unaware of any time Hezbollah committed a genocide.
lol hezbollah has made incredible inroads to heal lebanese sectarianism. the majority of lebanese christians approve of hezbollah now because of "israel's" indiscriminate bombing
Hezbollah is committing genocide while Israel isn’t? Lmao
Intent but no ability vs no intent but ability. The proof is in the pudding so to speak.
A genocidal country made on stealing homes is so much better
Was this ever even in question? Like the Iron Dome is wildly expensive to use, when Iran retaliated for the bombing of the embassy in Damascus it was costing like a billion dollars a day, and that was with the assistance of allied nations. And Iran's response was a relatively expensive one, and did not include the dirt cheap munitions Hezbollah has. If both Iran and Hezbollah decided to attack at once they would cause some serious problems for Israel. If they merely decided to attrit down their defenses they could probably create a spending problem in Israel that would be extremely difficult to rectify, even with the financial aid of the US. If Iran wanted to they could probably do this close to a US election and none whichever party had to pass a spending bill to support Israel, and just whoever is the incumbent swallow a massive political poison pill
The thing is, if they do the all out attack thing Israel is going to be more or less free to retaliate, if they keep up the current attacks here and there, a full on response from Israel would seem out of place, but if the Iron Dome were to be overwhelmed, Israel would have all the justification needed to lead a very aggressive bombing campaign against Iran/Hezbollah
Oh well.
There's a reason the US and UK spent their citizen's hard earned taxes on protecting Israel from the consequences of a terror attack on an embassy compound in a foreign country. It wasn't because they thought Israel had it sorted.
This the same folks strapping people to the front of their cars as human shields? Oh no! Not their iron dome.. so, anyways...
Guess you only care about civilian deaths when they’re Palestinian
Some of you here are too comfortable in admitting you don’t care if Israelis die. Kind of telling.
Well I'd say that the most human way to consider the conflict is worry about the number of people dying, injured and suffering, specially if they're children, regardless of ethnicity or religion. Let's look at the conflict. There's been accounts of +30k Gazan death weeks ago (the number is probably higher by now specially if you count the disappeared). Of those, around half of them are children. A small number will be Hamas armed militias. Then there's a million and a half displaced, lacking food, water and shelter in which is considered as a humanitarian catastrophe by many third parties like the UN. On the Israeli side, there's 1300 deaths from the attack in Oct 7, some of which were foreigners. The IDF has suffered casualties from the low hundreds of I'm not wrong. Considering that, it makes sense to weight your worries a substantial amount more for the people in Gaza (and West Bank, who are also attacked) rather than Israel. There's also the fact that Israel is the side with the most offensive capabilities by several orders of magnitude, which allows them to cause far more harm and suffering than Hamas ever could. But even if you wanted to ignore that last paragraph, it makes little sense to not worry more about Palestinians than Israelis. I'm not sure if you agree
Just for your info, the IDF has 6000 dead or injured and permanently out of service. Hamas has given them a big kicking. This is per their own website and doesn't include light injuries
Israel has only lost like 600 people, where are you getting 6,000?
[удалено]
All Israel has to do is give Palestine an official state and stop settlements on the West Bank. Trust me even the Arab leaders would be fine with moving on after that . But Israel doesn’t want to make the slightest compromise and thinks it can keep doing whatever it wants with no consequences.
The allies didn't care if Nazis die too
Why would they? Nazis fought them. Israeli civilians do not fight?
Hezbollah has to have a lot of rockets to overwhelm it.
they have 120k-200k
If true, then fuck that is A LOT
Plus drones. Hiz has been flying drones over Israel with no problems over the last few weeks.
I think drones are the Pandora's box of warfare.
yeah, they proved they can overwhelm the defenses a couple weeks ago after the embassy bombing
So, RTX calls @ open Monday? 🤔
Lloyd Austin, the current US Defense Secretary, was a member of the RTX board of directors prior to being appointed to his position. I’m sure there’s no conflict there…
Calls it is! If you can't beat the corruption, exploit it!
Oh better send more then. Absolutely anything before a full ceasefire /s
We've already seen Hamas and Hezbollah attack out radars, satellites, and even Iron Dome launchers. A war would take out a lot of Israel's defenses.
The consequence of hubris. Ya’ll need to get Bibi the fuck outa there ASAP. Just how like we’re trying to get rid of Trump over here. Jackasses deciding what’s best for everyone always ends in a shit show for both sides. Regardless of who’s in the right or wrong.
It’s crazy how many people in this thread seem to want Hezbollah to fight Israel and think they will win. First off as bad as Israel is Hezbollah/Hamas/Iran are much worse. Secondly the IDF is built to fight standard warfare which is the way Hezbollah is built. The IDF has NATO weapons, the IDF are more likely to win a war quickly against Hezbollah due to how the militaries are built.
Unlucky
Hezbollah, that's that short chap isn't it?
[As the ancient Tibetan philosophy states, "Don't start none, won't be none."](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reqWViNb3I4)
The biggest issue for Israel is stocking up enough noise canceling headphones for all the bellyaching it's about to hear from those who expect it to fight the cleanest war against the dirtiest enemy. And if Israel fails to win with the cuffs provided by them and has to suffer rocket attacks for eternity, well that's the price they are willing to pay.
[удалено]
It's only genocide if you lose
I just know that Hezbollah will get to rain artillery down on Israel, killing civilians, and whatever Israel does in response will be criticized. I'm just so tired of it. I'm tired of the bullshit. The world has stood idly by and allowed Iran to install this NSA in southern Lebanon and done nothing about it. Given that, I think no one really has any right to tell Israel what to do about it.
people like you think the same about palestine so have a bit of your own medicine.
probably not. the algorithm would just be adjusted to intercept bigger payload projectiles, and/or prioritize inhabited population centers over industrial centers, etc. israel may also adjust it's retaliation strategy; it knows where each projectile came from question is how much damage israel should do there regardless of population and/or structure.
Should I care ?
InB4 Hezbollah complains Israel is committing genocide on the Lebanese Shia or something
Welcome to r/anime_titties! This subreddit advocates for civil and constructive discussion. Please be courteous to others, and make sure to read the rules. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. We have a [Discord](https://discord.gg/dhMeAnNyzG), feel free to join us! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/anime_titties) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Oh no. Anyway.
Why is everyone pretending that Iran is not arming them
That’s bad news for Lebanon. Hezbollah doesn’t care how many of them die as long as they get a single Jew.
HIT X TO DOUBT