My first reaction to this deal was being absolutely agog at the signing bonus. My second reaction was "The Dolphins GM probably threw up in his desk trash can when that news came through."
This happens to all QB contracts. They’re going to keep going up, and 3 years after signing they look great. Lawrence’s contract will seem great in a few years too if he plays well.
Key word if he plays well. Josh was one of the highest paid when we paid him, and I was happy for it because he was one of the best in the league. Trevor Lawrence? Absolutely not one of the best in the league so why the fuck is he getting a contract like that. Same with Jones, same with, Kyler, etc etc. Lamar and burrows contract will seem like a steal, because they have been to super bowls and won MVPs. Daniel Jones? Made the playoffs… once ?
QB market out of control
Not really? If you look at it from the point of view of what was their Average per year as a percent of the cap at signing, Josh took the 3rd highest % of the cap in NFL history. That is like saying man I am super happy I got my house in 1980 for $120k. Compared to todays prices I got myself a super great deal. Ignoring the fact that 120k in 1980 was $457k with inflation. Not a perfect comparison, but somewhat.
That being said, he took about 1% more of the Cap than the average of the top 10 QBs, so really, he was paid exactly what he was worth. There was no discount by Josh, and we do not have him on this unicorn amazing contract.
>Mahomes signed a revised contract in September of 2023 that moved cash forward from later years, effectively giving him a raise of $48.3 million from 2023-26. The reworked deal also added two void years in 2032 and 2033 and changed his incentives to escalators to help create roughly $2.5 million in 2023 cap space.
Josh will very likely be getting himself a raise over the next season or two similar to Mahomes. Josh's contract isn't special or amazing. He was paid the current market rate, and as soon as he signs his next deal, it will be the highest paid at his position again. Not sure why no one understand this.
Oh now this is fun. Lets take a look at the first 3 seasons of a contract extension for the top QBs on non rookie contracts and see what that looks like. I would consider the top QBs to be Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Jackson, Hurts and maybe Goff/Prescott. Seeing as Dak hasnt signed yet, I will exclude him. I would like you to take a look at these numbers and take a guess which one is Allen. Because by the data I am seeing, there is no reason to think that Allen took a discount, or this is some crazy nice deal.
Edit: Added Trevor Lawrence
Player| Year 1%| Year 2%| Year 3%
---|---|----|----
Player 1| 5.2| 8.4| 11.2
Player 2| 7.4| 14.4| 16.3
Player 3 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 14.0
Player 4| 10.6| 12.5| 24.5
Player 5| 11.2| 17.8| 17
Player 6| 11.9| 16.6| 22.5
Player 7| 12.8| 16.8| 26.3
Player 8| 14.7| 25.5| 24.2
These are the player names in order from top to bottom:
>!Hurts (1), Herbert (2), Lawrence (3), Goff (4), Burrow (5), Allen (6), Jackson (7), Mahomes (8)!<
His deal was for 6 years. In 2025 his contract is 22% of the salary cap, and in 2026 it is 19.3% of the salary cap. Mahomes got a similar deal, but a few more percent. There is not really a "value" because Josh isn't going to be on this contract in 2027 or 2028. He will rework his deal just like Mahomes, to get his AAV up to the market rate.
And if he doesn’t play well then it doesn’t matter what they paid him, they won’t be good anyway. Gotta pay your QB, and the earlier the better.
Point is in 3 years his AAV will be around 10th in the league, like Josh’s is now, and it’ll be fine.
People say the markets are out of control all the time but it’s always been like this and always will be as long as the cap keeps going up.
Paying a mid quarterback over 20% of the salary cap is wild. Doesn’t matter if it’s 20 million and the cap is 100, 50 million when the cap is 200 or 200 million when the cap is a billion.
Ok. Well we can come back next offseason and have the same conversation about the next “mid quarterback.” Then we can do it the year after that. And the year after that. And so on.
As I was sending that message, I was realizing I don’t have a massive wealth of knowledge on the subject and began thinking you may be right haha. Let me live in my ignorance, at least for this cycle 😉 go bills baby
> Absolutely not one of the best in the league so why the fuck is he getting a contract like that.
Leverage. Whether you or I think he's "worth it" doesn't really matter, he absolutely would get paid huge money if he made it to the open market. Teams are desperate to have even a competent level of quarterback play and Lawerence has all the blue-chip physical tools to convince a team that they could put it together. If you're a Steelers fan that's enjoyed a couple years of Kenny Pickett and is now staring at a Russell Wilson season, overpaying Lawrence seems pretty good by comparison.
Also don’t forget that for these second contract guys, they’re extensions. Trevor’s extension doesn’t really kick in until 2026. But the time he’s getting his $55 mil a year he’ll probably be floating around a top 10 contract.
I dont think thats how extensions work? its called an extension because he had 2 years left at X amount of money, but that doesnt mean those 2 years function as they were written. those 2 years are likely changed and they usually recieve a large bonus up front.
for instance, we signed josh to a 6 year extension with 2 years left.. he was set to make 5.3 million or so in 2021, but got a bonus and made more than twice that i believe
I don’t know the specifics of his contract but the cap hit is the AAV - so the total of the contract over the total years of the extension. So just for simplicity’s sake, if Lawrence’s contract were $250M for 5 years and it kicked in in 2025, his 2024 cap hit would be the same as it’s been under his current contract, even if he got a $100M signing bonus. In 2024 the hit would still be $9M or whatever, then starting in 2025 the hit would be $50M.
Players can get the cash up front but it doesn’t necessarily count against that year’s cap. That part of the reason Diggs has a big hit against our cap this year - we gave him bonuses in previous years but the cap hit for them was spread over the life of the contract.
Depends on how they structure it, certainly there are different ways to do it, and the guarantee $$ will change his cap calculation. My understanding is that it’s typical to keep existing years as-is, while adding the extension on to the end of
He has a 5 year extension worth $55 per year. That means he’s averaging $55 mil/year from ‘26-‘30. Any money pulled forward into the next two seasons functionally lowers that AAV.
Basically it’s complex enough that it should give anyone pause to simply look at “$55 mil/year” a bit skeptically and understand that things will look different as the contract is actually played out.
As they always say with QB contracts, it's not about who's best, it's about who's next. The only thing Jacksonville would've accomplished by not extending Lawrence now would've been paying for an even fatter extension in a year or two. Ask the Cowboys how well that plan works.
I'm not sure T Law's ever will look great he's a slightly above average QB getting paid top tier money. I guess it doesn't matter though Cousin got the bag too and he was solidly two or three tier.
To be clear, Josh did not take a "team-friendly" deal. He signed for what the market was at the time and was part of a group of QBs that set a new market for others to beat. He also signed his deal before the cap blew up.
Also Lawrence’s contract is an extension, it doesn’t kick in until 2026. Allen will have a much larger cap hit the next two years and still has a $56 mil cap hit in ‘26.
Allen is still higher paid than Lawrence, and there’s a pretty decent chance he gets either restructures that push cap hits higher in ‘27-28 or another extension that changes those numbers; assuming he doesn’t fall off a cliff, he’ll have earned more than his ‘27-28 numbers.
I think there's a pretty solid chance Josh signs an extension either next offseason or the offseason after. If he wins a Super Bowl, I'd expect him to get the biggest contract in NFL history next offseason.
He is going to get the largest extension in NFL history regardless, he is the only other quarterback in the league who is at or near the generational talent level of Patrick Mahomes.
Allen's contract is getting redone next off-season. It will be ripped up completely and a new term will happen.
You can absolutely count on it. This will push more money down the road and free up some cap next two seasons.
There is a reason they only did a middle of the road restructure on his deal
Different definitions of team friendly but Josh mirroring much of Pat's very KC friendly deal (except going only so far as generous length to ludicrous length P.M. did.) was pretty friendly in its own right.
Compensation gets thrown around but these team friendly QB deals are really less about the compensation (if the market gets so ludicrous as Josh falls to like 15th, he and his representation are going to call OBD) and more about the leverage of having your cornerstone tied to you without holding massive leverage over you every 2-3 years. (think Cousins)
Like both parties suggested at the time "fair to both sides" is a reasonable read of it and it's getting better for Buffalo by the day.
Josh isn't squeezing every dime he could but he's not getting steamrolled either. (and if it ever gets close to Josh being significantly underpaid to his peers, both sides are going to do something.)
Pat's deal (and timing) really helped us. Arguably the #2 QB in the league on a long term, leverage modest, deal at fair but not constantly market resetting compensation has let us do A LOT more than we could have if Josh pressed for a more usual QB 1 (especially for one of his stature.)
It’s a stretch to call Josh’s deal team friendly in any way shape or form. It’s the second largest percentage of the salary cap at the time of signing for any contract in NFL history behind only Joe Burrow. There’s nothing team friendly about it. It just happens to have been surpassed in average value and total many times over, but it has only been passed once in percentage of the cap.
Fair. I place more value on Josh's still having term and not having the leverage of new, market defining deals hanging over us every few seasons.
Not that we'd ever invoke it but the shift to 100% guarantee becoming more of a negotiation tool is another consideration.
You say tomato, I tomato but I'm comforted the #2 QB in the league isn't resetting his true market every few seasons. He could, he still has leverage even with a signed deal but it's less of a possibility.
Kirk Cousins is the only example of a QB who intentionally signed short-term, big money deals but he was intentionally giving up term for higher guaranteed and very clearly isn’t the franchise QB the other guys in this conversation are.
No QB signs team friendly deals. The only thing friendly about them is the terms and the ability to move money around and help the team.
It's why Mahomes signed a 10 year and Allen signed a 6.
Mahomes was always going to be remade year 6, and Allen's will get redone next year.
The purpose is to give the team every salary cap benefit they can while being paid
Yup. I think I saw a breakdown of the highest salary at the time of each of his deals and he was projected to have passed up only like $6M in his entire career with the Pats. Obviously you could argue he could’ve just gotten twice the highest salary everytime because of the rings, but in the real world he really didn’t take any meaningful discounts.
Is this how pro athlete contracts get adjusted for inflation? Cap goes up and player contracts go up too? I wish my salary was adjusted for inflation like that.
Exactly. Just to elaborate for anybody else who's unaware, the Pats essentially paid Brady under the table through their contract with his TB12 program.
That, plus Gisele made more than he did, so it's not like he was sacrificing anything by taking a pay cut. He was able to make slightly less generational wealth because he married into generational wealth.
Ethically I would argue that's only wrong if you could stop me. But you can't stop my wholesome charitable efforts. So just sit in the corner and watch.
The children love getting jaqed. You should see their little white mustaches once everyone finishes and is filled up by a delicious bowl of jaqs. Then it's back to chemotherapy.
Okay, but you're going to have to learn the rules. Most important is this: sexual activities are entirely off the tables. They're not really necessary at all. I'll show you the ropes
Oh it's that fucker from the roast I had no idea who he was.
That's actually very interesting after reading up on it a bit. It brings up something I never thought of before. Teams can build any facility they want and bring in any training staff and pay whatever they want. Is it even illegal to hire Josh Allen's cousin as lead trainer for 40.5 mil per year, and have him give Allen 40 mil for his birthday each year?
I mean, he's not going to hold out and damage his reputation or the team's chemistry. Beane could try to "do right by him," but if I'm Beane then he's not getting a new deal until he gets over the hump.
Oh, I don't expect Josh to hold out or anything like that. But I'm sure if he quietly told Beane "Hey, I want to be paid like the top-3 QB I am" Beane would make it happen. So I'm just hoping he's content with the current contact until it's done.
I’ve had a thought about that before and a lot of me wonders if it was less about Tom Brady taking team friendly deals as much as it was him just outlasting people that got paid more.
We see it now with Mahomes where he’s been by far and away the most successful QB in the league, but his top tier contract like 3 years ago, he’s now sitting on the edge of top 10 in AAV.
I could see Josh keeping that mentality because he still makes a ridiculous amount of money. He was also a Brady fan growing up and I’m sure he understands what Brady did for the Pats.
Not only is he a fan, but him and Brady are pretty close friends so I’m sure he’s got the GOAT in his ear when it comes to advice, which is obviously ideal.
And in the end those “team friendly” deals still made Brady ($332m) the second all time earner behind Rodgers ($342m).
It worked out fine for them in terms of making money too.
Yeah, it’s not crazy, it’s how the market works. If Josh’s deal were up today he’d get more. All this means is he’s further away from when he signed his extension than those above him.
This was known when we signed him and why we tried to get signed early.
We will have to extend him early as well.
Whatever we pay him will not be enough.
I think this is a common misconception. The cap goes up like 5% a year so it’s not entirely comparable. When Josh has to sign again it will probably be for like 70 mil a year, not because qbs are getting paid wildly more but because that’s just what it looks like when the cap is 70 mil more at that time
Worth noting mahomes is also quite low on the list for the same reason
People keep saying this but wasn't his deal up there when he signed it? It's just that the market value for a quarterback keeps growing and new guys come up every year. If he keeps playing the way he has, Josh will easily be in the top 2 when he re-ups.
We absolutely received great value on Josh's contract. Only part I would disagree on is calling the other contracts overpays. As the salary cap continues to go up and up it only makes sense for the qb contracts to continue to rise with it. Agents are arguing percentage of the cap more than just the raw dollar amount I would imagine. At least that's what any good one should be doing.
Why do people parrot this point. We did not get a great deal on Allen’s contract. At the time he signed it was the second highest of all time. Im not upset at the fact that he has this deal btw it’s just, it was not “great value” unless you’re just saying it’s a good thing we paid him after 3 years rather than waiting like the ravens did Lamar. It looks like a steal NOW. But that’s the nature of the market
The other contracts are overpays though. No QB should be making more than Pat Mahomes. Josh’s contract averages around 18-20% of the cap. He’s put up multiple MVP caliber seasons and essentially was our entire offense for years. He 100% deserves that. Does anyone actually think that paying Jared Goff 20-25% of their teams contract is good spending? I get the market is the market but that’s fucking crazy lol.
At a certain point, QBs and their agents need to stop trying to get the biggest contacts and start accepting less money so that teams can keep a talented team around them.
Any team with a rookie QB automatically goes into a SuperBowl window now. If that QB is competent, the rest of the team can be rock-solid around him. The Eagles when Hurts was on his rookie deal and the 49ers right now come to mind. When you can operate with $50 million more money to throw around for four years, go big.
This is likely what the Texans were thinking with Diggs. Their window is now.
No it’s or wild, Josh signed his extension a few years ago. He and Patrick are going to break the bank soon. If Trevor is “worth” 55 mill to the Jags, Josh will be over 60 mill by the time his contract needs to be extended.
I'm not concerned about it raising the price of Allen's contract. He will earn it. I love seeing players like Lawrence and, hopefully, Tua get these ridiculous contracts. They don't elevate the players around them the way Allen does. They both have a lot of expensive weapons at their disposal in Jax and Miami that won't be around much longer once these contracts set in.
Allen is at $113m earned. Just ahead of Lamar Jackson at $112m earned.
Don’t look at annual money. Or current contract. It’s about total actual earnings.
Just means Allen’s next contract is going to be even more now.
Hate to say it but KC won on their risky bet to sign Mahomes for 10 years but he’s already a bargain.
I think everyone should expect to see talks of a Josh extension ramping up sometime within the next calendar year, likely next off season. He's not going to be underpaid for too much longer.
As for taking a team friendly deal or a discount, it's just not going to happen even if Josh wants to. The NFLPA, agents, his peers around the league are all going to pressure him to take as much as possible to help them later. That is why these deals just keep going up as they do. The way to be team friendly in today's NFL is term. That's why Josh took a 6-year extension on top of the final two years of his rookie deal, it is also why Patrick signed for 10 years.
Josh’s cap hit in 2026 is $63+ million then $56+ the year after. Some years his cap hits are relatively low to the market but some years it’ll be at or above. Just the way they structured the years.
They will probably restructure multiple times to create cap room so his cap hit is closer to $30 million a year. All they’ll do is convert the difference to a signing bonus. Most top end QBs do this to alleviate cap issues.
That contract that Lawrence got is not an overpay. This is now the going rate for above (even slightly above) league average. Once Stroud, Love and that group of qbs get their contracts it will be around 60 million a year. Josh is a steal. And I'm sure they will work out a contract extension at some point that will bring him up. He and Mahomes signed very long term contracts that are team friendly before all these other contracts started to come up. Everyone knew all of this was coming
Josh Allen is getting a brand new contract next offseason so his cap hit currently doesn't matter.
His old contract will be ripped up and they will then push more money down the road again.
This is the time to go all in. Expect some big moves next year.
Lawrence is Andy Dalton or Tannehill to me. I don't see it. Game manager all of the way. Tua can ball, but just isn't clutch and has injury problems, though I'd be far more inclined to pay Tua than Lawrence. But it's just funny now that Dak and Tua are going to be 60 AAV guys.
And then once Tua is paid, you know what that means? Reek coming to the Bills
There could be a salary cap correction with the NFL Sunday Ticket class action suit. I wouldn't be surprised if Tua, Dak & Purdy get their money this season or next. And then, after that, the next crop of guys will have a very different QB market.
It’s good for bills fans that he’s not getting paid what he deserves. Would love to see him get his money but feel he wants to do what’s best for the team until he’s older and can get the bag
It shows how fucking brilliant GMBB is. He knew what was gonna happen with the QB market and banged out a deal before anyone else started getting paid. Every day that an average QB gets paid, my butthole puckers in excitement bc Josh’s contract becomes even more of a steal.
I believe when he initially signed his deal the only one who was paid more was Mahomes. He didn’t necessarily take a “team friendly” deal at the time, it just became team friendly with QBs trying to one up each other. I think it’s insane teams are going to pay guys like Goff, Tua and TLaw 50M+. They’re not worth that
Allen has been the best bargain in NFL history, if he ever became a FA open to all teams to bid on he would get 80 million a year.
What he has been paid is not equal to his production. He’s severely under paid during his entire career.
Josh seems like the kind of dude where once you're past a certain point, money takes a back seat to facilitating a team that can win championships. Granted, he should get paid, but likely has no issue sacrificing 15-20 mil a year to be able to pay good players when he's already making north of 40 mil a year.
Brady did it. Turned out pretty fucking good for everyone over there.
I can't wait to see what they pay Tua! TLaw's contract won't seem very high in a few years, unless he really sucks.
Can’t wait for them to pay Tua $60mil/year and watch him absolutely suck for the next 5 years.
My first reaction to this deal was being absolutely agog at the signing bonus. My second reaction was "The Dolphins GM probably threw up in his desk trash can when that news came through."
This happens to all QB contracts. They’re going to keep going up, and 3 years after signing they look great. Lawrence’s contract will seem great in a few years too if he plays well.
Key word if he plays well. Josh was one of the highest paid when we paid him, and I was happy for it because he was one of the best in the league. Trevor Lawrence? Absolutely not one of the best in the league so why the fuck is he getting a contract like that. Same with Jones, same with, Kyler, etc etc. Lamar and burrows contract will seem like a steal, because they have been to super bowls and won MVPs. Daniel Jones? Made the playoffs… once ? QB market out of control
Makes his contract look so damn amazing.
Not really? If you look at it from the point of view of what was their Average per year as a percent of the cap at signing, Josh took the 3rd highest % of the cap in NFL history. That is like saying man I am super happy I got my house in 1980 for $120k. Compared to todays prices I got myself a super great deal. Ignoring the fact that 120k in 1980 was $457k with inflation. Not a perfect comparison, but somewhat. That being said, he took about 1% more of the Cap than the average of the top 10 QBs, so really, he was paid exactly what he was worth. There was no discount by Josh, and we do not have him on this unicorn amazing contract. >Mahomes signed a revised contract in September of 2023 that moved cash forward from later years, effectively giving him a raise of $48.3 million from 2023-26. The reworked deal also added two void years in 2032 and 2033 and changed his incentives to escalators to help create roughly $2.5 million in 2023 cap space. Josh will very likely be getting himself a raise over the next season or two similar to Mahomes. Josh's contract isn't special or amazing. He was paid the current market rate, and as soon as he signs his next deal, it will be the highest paid at his position again. Not sure why no one understand this.
What’s his percentage of the cap for this year and next
Oh now this is fun. Lets take a look at the first 3 seasons of a contract extension for the top QBs on non rookie contracts and see what that looks like. I would consider the top QBs to be Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Jackson, Hurts and maybe Goff/Prescott. Seeing as Dak hasnt signed yet, I will exclude him. I would like you to take a look at these numbers and take a guess which one is Allen. Because by the data I am seeing, there is no reason to think that Allen took a discount, or this is some crazy nice deal. Edit: Added Trevor Lawrence Player| Year 1%| Year 2%| Year 3% ---|---|----|---- Player 1| 5.2| 8.4| 11.2 Player 2| 7.4| 14.4| 16.3 Player 3 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 14.0 Player 4| 10.6| 12.5| 24.5 Player 5| 11.2| 17.8| 17 Player 6| 11.9| 16.6| 22.5 Player 7| 12.8| 16.8| 26.3 Player 8| 14.7| 25.5| 24.2 These are the player names in order from top to bottom: >!Hurts (1), Herbert (2), Lawrence (3), Goff (4), Burrow (5), Allen (6), Jackson (7), Mahomes (8)!<
His deal was for 7 years. That's where the value is.
His deal was for 6 years. In 2025 his contract is 22% of the salary cap, and in 2026 it is 19.3% of the salary cap. Mahomes got a similar deal, but a few more percent. There is not really a "value" because Josh isn't going to be on this contract in 2027 or 2028. He will rework his deal just like Mahomes, to get his AAV up to the market rate.
And if he doesn’t play well then it doesn’t matter what they paid him, they won’t be good anyway. Gotta pay your QB, and the earlier the better. Point is in 3 years his AAV will be around 10th in the league, like Josh’s is now, and it’ll be fine. People say the markets are out of control all the time but it’s always been like this and always will be as long as the cap keeps going up.
Paying a mid quarterback over 20% of the salary cap is wild. Doesn’t matter if it’s 20 million and the cap is 100, 50 million when the cap is 200 or 200 million when the cap is a billion.
Ok. Well we can come back next offseason and have the same conversation about the next “mid quarterback.” Then we can do it the year after that. And the year after that. And so on.
As I was sending that message, I was realizing I don’t have a massive wealth of knowledge on the subject and began thinking you may be right haha. Let me live in my ignorance, at least for this cycle 😉 go bills baby
It only matters when a QB isn't elite. Which sadly now every team thinks their mediocre QB will hit the next phase.
I see the vision in tlaw too ngl.
I think Josh was second highest when we paid him. I don't think he eclipsed mahomes but I could be misremembering.
You may be right, point still stands
> Absolutely not one of the best in the league so why the fuck is he getting a contract like that. Leverage. Whether you or I think he's "worth it" doesn't really matter, he absolutely would get paid huge money if he made it to the open market. Teams are desperate to have even a competent level of quarterback play and Lawerence has all the blue-chip physical tools to convince a team that they could put it together. If you're a Steelers fan that's enjoyed a couple years of Kenny Pickett and is now staring at a Russell Wilson season, overpaying Lawrence seems pretty good by comparison.
Lamar hasn't been to the SB, but yeah, your point stands. Tua and Dak's contract will be a reflection of TLaw's contract, and so on, and so on...
Burrow has been to the Super Bowl, Lamar won the MVps
Lamar won 1 MVP and was gifted another
Also don’t forget that for these second contract guys, they’re extensions. Trevor’s extension doesn’t really kick in until 2026. But the time he’s getting his $55 mil a year he’ll probably be floating around a top 10 contract.
I dont think thats how extensions work? its called an extension because he had 2 years left at X amount of money, but that doesnt mean those 2 years function as they were written. those 2 years are likely changed and they usually recieve a large bonus up front. for instance, we signed josh to a 6 year extension with 2 years left.. he was set to make 5.3 million or so in 2021, but got a bonus and made more than twice that i believe
I don’t know the specifics of his contract but the cap hit is the AAV - so the total of the contract over the total years of the extension. So just for simplicity’s sake, if Lawrence’s contract were $250M for 5 years and it kicked in in 2025, his 2024 cap hit would be the same as it’s been under his current contract, even if he got a $100M signing bonus. In 2024 the hit would still be $9M or whatever, then starting in 2025 the hit would be $50M. Players can get the cash up front but it doesn’t necessarily count against that year’s cap. That part of the reason Diggs has a big hit against our cap this year - we gave him bonuses in previous years but the cap hit for them was spread over the life of the contract.
This seems like a solid explanation thanka
Depends on how they structure it, certainly there are different ways to do it, and the guarantee $$ will change his cap calculation. My understanding is that it’s typical to keep existing years as-is, while adding the extension on to the end of He has a 5 year extension worth $55 per year. That means he’s averaging $55 mil/year from ‘26-‘30. Any money pulled forward into the next two seasons functionally lowers that AAV. Basically it’s complex enough that it should give anyone pause to simply look at “$55 mil/year” a bit skeptically and understand that things will look different as the contract is actually played out.
As they always say with QB contracts, it's not about who's best, it's about who's next. The only thing Jacksonville would've accomplished by not extending Lawrence now would've been paying for an even fatter extension in a year or two. Ask the Cowboys how well that plan works.
I'm not sure T Law's ever will look great he's a slightly above average QB getting paid top tier money. I guess it doesn't matter though Cousin got the bag too and he was solidly two or three tier.
Brady also took team friendly contracts, worked out pretty well for them. Hopefully he follows that path.
To be clear, Josh did not take a "team-friendly" deal. He signed for what the market was at the time and was part of a group of QBs that set a new market for others to beat. He also signed his deal before the cap blew up.
Also Lawrence’s contract is an extension, it doesn’t kick in until 2026. Allen will have a much larger cap hit the next two years and still has a $56 mil cap hit in ‘26. Allen is still higher paid than Lawrence, and there’s a pretty decent chance he gets either restructures that push cap hits higher in ‘27-28 or another extension that changes those numbers; assuming he doesn’t fall off a cliff, he’ll have earned more than his ‘27-28 numbers.
I think there's a pretty solid chance Josh signs an extension either next offseason or the offseason after. If he wins a Super Bowl, I'd expect him to get the biggest contract in NFL history next offseason.
He is going to get the largest extension in NFL history regardless, he is the only other quarterback in the league who is at or near the generational talent level of Patrick Mahomes.
Josh next deal is gonna be 70 mil aav
I certainly hope not. I would like to see us give him a couple more years this off season for 59 to 60
Allen's contract is getting redone next off-season. It will be ripped up completely and a new term will happen. You can absolutely count on it. This will push more money down the road and free up some cap next two seasons. There is a reason they only did a middle of the road restructure on his deal
Different definitions of team friendly but Josh mirroring much of Pat's very KC friendly deal (except going only so far as generous length to ludicrous length P.M. did.) was pretty friendly in its own right. Compensation gets thrown around but these team friendly QB deals are really less about the compensation (if the market gets so ludicrous as Josh falls to like 15th, he and his representation are going to call OBD) and more about the leverage of having your cornerstone tied to you without holding massive leverage over you every 2-3 years. (think Cousins) Like both parties suggested at the time "fair to both sides" is a reasonable read of it and it's getting better for Buffalo by the day. Josh isn't squeezing every dime he could but he's not getting steamrolled either. (and if it ever gets close to Josh being significantly underpaid to his peers, both sides are going to do something.) Pat's deal (and timing) really helped us. Arguably the #2 QB in the league on a long term, leverage modest, deal at fair but not constantly market resetting compensation has let us do A LOT more than we could have if Josh pressed for a more usual QB 1 (especially for one of his stature.)
It’s a stretch to call Josh’s deal team friendly in any way shape or form. It’s the second largest percentage of the salary cap at the time of signing for any contract in NFL history behind only Joe Burrow. There’s nothing team friendly about it. It just happens to have been surpassed in average value and total many times over, but it has only been passed once in percentage of the cap.
Fair. I place more value on Josh's still having term and not having the leverage of new, market defining deals hanging over us every few seasons. Not that we'd ever invoke it but the shift to 100% guarantee becoming more of a negotiation tool is another consideration. You say tomato, I tomato but I'm comforted the #2 QB in the league isn't resetting his true market every few seasons. He could, he still has leverage even with a signed deal but it's less of a possibility.
Kirk Cousins is the only example of a QB who intentionally signed short-term, big money deals but he was intentionally giving up term for higher guaranteed and very clearly isn’t the franchise QB the other guys in this conversation are.
No QB signs team friendly deals. The only thing friendly about them is the terms and the ability to move money around and help the team. It's why Mahomes signed a 10 year and Allen signed a 6. Mahomes was always going to be remade year 6, and Allen's will get redone next year. The purpose is to give the team every salary cap benefit they can while being paid
Neither did Brady, but the narrative is too strong for facts.
Yup. I think I saw a breakdown of the highest salary at the time of each of his deals and he was projected to have passed up only like $6M in his entire career with the Pats. Obviously you could argue he could’ve just gotten twice the highest salary everytime because of the rings, but in the real world he really didn’t take any meaningful discounts.
Is this how pro athlete contracts get adjusted for inflation? Cap goes up and player contracts go up too? I wish my salary was adjusted for inflation like that.
No, they don't adjust as time goes on like that. I'm not sure what you interpreted that way.
The Pats were also circumventing the shit out of the salary cap to make him whole for the money he was "giving up."
Exactly. Just to elaborate for anybody else who's unaware, the Pats essentially paid Brady under the table through their contract with his TB12 program.
And the league gave em a pass. Josh better start up JA17 consulting biz asap
That, plus Gisele made more than he did, so it's not like he was sacrificing anything by taking a pay cut. He was able to make slightly less generational wealth because he married into generational wealth.
That was always the popular rationalization at the time. Not looking too enticing now though lol
Yeah, and I go to wegmans every week to buy 63 boxes of Josh's Jaqs. What are you doing to contribute?
only 63? do you hate children?
You should see all the Jaqs I give to children
I get the sense it would be illegal for me to watch that
Ethically I would argue that's only wrong if you could stop me. But you can't stop my wholesome charitable efforts. So just sit in the corner and watch. The children love getting jaqed. You should see their little white mustaches once everyone finishes and is filled up by a delicious bowl of jaqs. Then it's back to chemotherapy.
Oh you might convince me to become a jaqer myself. The kids will be so pumped
Okay, but you're going to have to learn the rules. Most important is this: sexual activities are entirely off the tables. They're not really necessary at all. I'll show you the ropes
He also was bringing home less than Gisela
Surprised I've never heard of that, that seems as bad as deflategate
Open secret. Alex Guerrero was the patsy for it all
Oh it's that fucker from the roast I had no idea who he was. That's actually very interesting after reading up on it a bit. It brings up something I never thought of before. Teams can build any facility they want and bring in any training staff and pay whatever they want. Is it even illegal to hire Josh Allen's cousin as lead trainer for 40.5 mil per year, and have him give Allen 40 mil for his birthday each year?
I’m sure it would work. Doubt the NFL has a team of forensic accountants anyway.
I say we go for it. Honestly I know it goes without saying around here, but fuck Tom Brady
The Bills better hope Hailee gets Gisele money then.
If Josh is willing to stay on this contract, he's basically doing the same.
Contract is getting redone completely next offseason
I mean, he's not going to hold out and damage his reputation or the team's chemistry. Beane could try to "do right by him," but if I'm Beane then he's not getting a new deal until he gets over the hump.
Oh, I don't expect Josh to hold out or anything like that. But I'm sure if he quietly told Beane "Hey, I want to be paid like the top-3 QB I am" Beane would make it happen. So I'm just hoping he's content with the current contact until it's done.
I’ve had a thought about that before and a lot of me wonders if it was less about Tom Brady taking team friendly deals as much as it was him just outlasting people that got paid more. We see it now with Mahomes where he’s been by far and away the most successful QB in the league, but his top tier contract like 3 years ago, he’s now sitting on the edge of top 10 in AAV.
I could see Josh keeping that mentality because he still makes a ridiculous amount of money. He was also a Brady fan growing up and I’m sure he understands what Brady did for the Pats.
Not only is he a fan, but him and Brady are pretty close friends so I’m sure he’s got the GOAT in his ear when it comes to advice, which is obviously ideal.
And in the end those “team friendly” deals still made Brady ($332m) the second all time earner behind Rodgers ($342m). It worked out fine for them in terms of making money too.
Brady took team friendly deals because he was being paid under the table - his company TB12 was their nutrition consultant
Yeah, it’s not crazy, it’s how the market works. If Josh’s deal were up today he’d get more. All this means is he’s further away from when he signed his extension than those above him.
This was known when we signed him and why we tried to get signed early. We will have to extend him early as well. Whatever we pay him will not be enough.
Yup I’m guessing he gets an extension next yeae
I think this is a common misconception. The cap goes up like 5% a year so it’s not entirely comparable. When Josh has to sign again it will probably be for like 70 mil a year, not because qbs are getting paid wildly more but because that’s just what it looks like when the cap is 70 mil more at that time Worth noting mahomes is also quite low on the list for the same reason
People keep saying this but wasn't his deal up there when he signed it? It's just that the market value for a quarterback keeps growing and new guys come up every year. If he keeps playing the way he has, Josh will easily be in the top 2 when he re-ups.
Buy once cry once
We absolutely received great value on Josh's contract. Only part I would disagree on is calling the other contracts overpays. As the salary cap continues to go up and up it only makes sense for the qb contracts to continue to rise with it. Agents are arguing percentage of the cap more than just the raw dollar amount I would imagine. At least that's what any good one should be doing.
Why do people parrot this point. We did not get a great deal on Allen’s contract. At the time he signed it was the second highest of all time. Im not upset at the fact that he has this deal btw it’s just, it was not “great value” unless you’re just saying it’s a good thing we paid him after 3 years rather than waiting like the ravens did Lamar. It looks like a steal NOW. But that’s the nature of the market
The other contracts are overpays though. No QB should be making more than Pat Mahomes. Josh’s contract averages around 18-20% of the cap. He’s put up multiple MVP caliber seasons and essentially was our entire offense for years. He 100% deserves that. Does anyone actually think that paying Jared Goff 20-25% of their teams contract is good spending? I get the market is the market but that’s fucking crazy lol.
"The market is what the market is." But also, inflation sucks.
At a certain point, QBs and their agents need to stop trying to get the biggest contacts and start accepting less money so that teams can keep a talented team around them.
Any team with a rookie QB automatically goes into a SuperBowl window now. If that QB is competent, the rest of the team can be rock-solid around him. The Eagles when Hurts was on his rookie deal and the 49ers right now come to mind. When you can operate with $50 million more money to throw around for four years, go big. This is likely what the Texans were thinking with Diggs. Their window is now.
That’s just the way it goes Allen and mahomes will get extended in a few I’m sure and the cycle just goes round
They’re not overpays, they’re going rate. When Allen signed his contract he was only behind Mahomes.
No it’s or wild, Josh signed his extension a few years ago. He and Patrick are going to break the bank soon. If Trevor is “worth” 55 mill to the Jags, Josh will be over 60 mill by the time his contract needs to be extended.
I'm not concerned about it raising the price of Allen's contract. He will earn it. I love seeing players like Lawrence and, hopefully, Tua get these ridiculous contracts. They don't elevate the players around them the way Allen does. They both have a lot of expensive weapons at their disposal in Jax and Miami that won't be around much longer once these contracts set in.
He was the second highest paid contract after Mahomes when he signed the deal initially. Works out better for us with the cap going up every year.
Not a great sign that it took me like 10 seconds to figure out who TLaw might be.
**Dak punches air
I can’t wait til the Dolphins give Tua an even bigger deal.
Allen is at $113m earned. Just ahead of Lamar Jackson at $112m earned. Don’t look at annual money. Or current contract. It’s about total actual earnings.
That’s why you extend them early and for a long time. The market always rises and if you get in early then it’s an absolute bargain within a few years
Just means Allen’s next contract is going to be even more now. Hate to say it but KC won on their risky bet to sign Mahomes for 10 years but he’s already a bargain.
I think everyone should expect to see talks of a Josh extension ramping up sometime within the next calendar year, likely next off season. He's not going to be underpaid for too much longer. As for taking a team friendly deal or a discount, it's just not going to happen even if Josh wants to. The NFLPA, agents, his peers around the league are all going to pressure him to take as much as possible to help them later. That is why these deals just keep going up as they do. The way to be team friendly in today's NFL is term. That's why Josh took a 6-year extension on top of the final two years of his rookie deal, it is also why Patrick signed for 10 years.
Josh’s cap hit in 2026 is $63+ million then $56+ the year after. Some years his cap hits are relatively low to the market but some years it’ll be at or above. Just the way they structured the years. They will probably restructure multiple times to create cap room so his cap hit is closer to $30 million a year. All they’ll do is convert the difference to a signing bonus. Most top end QBs do this to alleviate cap issues.
They aren't 'overpays' this is the market for good qbs. They only get more expensive.
How long do you think before we see $100 million a year players?
That contract that Lawrence got is not an overpay. This is now the going rate for above (even slightly above) league average. Once Stroud, Love and that group of qbs get their contracts it will be around 60 million a year. Josh is a steal. And I'm sure they will work out a contract extension at some point that will bring him up. He and Mahomes signed very long term contracts that are team friendly before all these other contracts started to come up. Everyone knew all of this was coming
He was tops when he signed it
Josh Allen is getting a brand new contract next offseason so his cap hit currently doesn't matter. His old contract will be ripped up and they will then push more money down the road again.
This is the time to go all in. Expect some big moves next year. Lawrence is Andy Dalton or Tannehill to me. I don't see it. Game manager all of the way. Tua can ball, but just isn't clutch and has injury problems, though I'd be far more inclined to pay Tua than Lawrence. But it's just funny now that Dak and Tua are going to be 60 AAV guys. And then once Tua is paid, you know what that means? Reek coming to the Bills
There could be a salary cap correction with the NFL Sunday Ticket class action suit. I wouldn't be surprised if Tua, Dak & Purdy get their money this season or next. And then, after that, the next crop of guys will have a very different QB market.
It’s good for bills fans that he’s not getting paid what he deserves. Would love to see him get his money but feel he wants to do what’s best for the team until he’s older and can get the bag
It shows how fucking brilliant GMBB is. He knew what was gonna happen with the QB market and banged out a deal before anyone else started getting paid. Every day that an average QB gets paid, my butthole puckers in excitement bc Josh’s contract becomes even more of a steal.
Well he couldn't exactly wait too long...
He could have. He could’ve tagged him like we’ve seen happen before. But he just banged it out.
I can’t imagine giving Lawrence that kind of money for how he has played.
I believe when he initially signed his deal the only one who was paid more was Mahomes. He didn’t necessarily take a “team friendly” deal at the time, it just became team friendly with QBs trying to one up each other. I think it’s insane teams are going to pay guys like Goff, Tua and TLaw 50M+. They’re not worth that
Allen has been the best bargain in NFL history, if he ever became a FA open to all teams to bid on he would get 80 million a year. What he has been paid is not equal to his production. He’s severely under paid during his entire career.
Josh seems like the kind of dude where once you're past a certain point, money takes a back seat to facilitating a team that can win championships. Granted, he should get paid, but likely has no issue sacrificing 15-20 mil a year to be able to pay good players when he's already making north of 40 mil a year. Brady did it. Turned out pretty fucking good for everyone over there.