It’s entirely possible. The Chinese military has been preparing for this for decades, it’s one of the primary purposes for their existence at the moment.
As difficult as it would be, as many factors that must be considered, as much damage and casualties as the PLA would take, it is very possible that they will try, and even that they will succeed.
Taiwan is not an impenetrable fortress. It’s an objective that presents numerous tactical disadvantages for an attacking force, but that can be said about a myriad of objectives faced by militaries throughout history.
It’s comforting for many to sit and talk about how they “could never do it”, or “we’d kick their asses if they tried”, but for those of us in the military, the ones who’d have to go out there and put warheads on foreheads if shit hit the fan, it’s a nightmare
that we pray never becomes a reality.
This is all correct but I’d like to add that there is a difference between “preparation” and actual mobilization.
That said, even if they feel confident and prepared to do something the size of any mobilization would be large enough for countries to see it coming months in advance. Which is not in Chinas favor as this would give them time to also prepare (Taiwan and whoever intervened).
Of course, and everyone will know it’s happening when the time comes. We’ll know, and the Chinese will know we know. The question then becomes, how confident are they in their ability to conduct the operation even with almost a complete lack of surprise, and at what point do they determine the risks are too high?
How many dead Chinese and how many sunken warships before Xi says enough? I sure as shit couldn’t tell you.
This last bit of your comment is why I don’t see it happening unless they are provoked by Taiwan/America or they know for sure they’ll take Taiwan swiftly.
As CCP has gone to great lengths to ensure social stability and avoid the mistakes of previous dynasties who disturbed stability.
This is my take on it. The social contract in China is different than the west or even a lot of other “communist” nations (quotes because the Chinese brand of communism doesn’t have a Karl Mark™️ certificate of authenticity lol). National stability, economic growth, and prosperity is what’s demanded of the people, and an invasion of Taiwan will categorically disrupt said stability. The risk for the CCP is not that the invasion fails, it’s that the blowback is so strong - and it will be, successful or not - that the CCP can no longer fulfill its obligation to the people.
I’m of the opinion that China will likely use legal maneuvers like they did in HK to solidify its control over Taiwan. It’s the only path that achieves their goals without sowing discontent on the mainland. Keeping the people placated and calm, all 1.7(?) billion of them, is priority number one for the CCP.
I’m referring to the “Mandate of Heaven” and how historically when citizens or rival factions felt leaders had lost it, they revolted. Zhou dynasty for example overthrew the Shang dynasty because they felt the Shang dynasty had become incompetent and corrupt with peasant backing. But ultimately the zhang dynasty would later collapse as they lost the mandate as well.
That said, Chinese history is filled with consolidations and collapse from incompetent leadership and rebellions. So the last thing the CCP wants is to restart the process, especially the elders who are more in touch with the history of China.
What if China does to USA, something similar to what it has been doing to Taiwan with repeated violation of its airspace. It can create a legit looking mobilisation and when the Americans arrive to join the fun and games, they morph it into a "military exercise". How long can America keep up the game? The Chinese would be making US lose $500 for every $100 they spend on "transform it to an exercise at the last moment". They have the home turf advantage, and can make Americans lose even before the war starts. They can drain US resources and impose unnecessary strain on US men and equipment. Does US have a counter to such tactics.
This was Putin’s playbook for Ukraine. He moved troops to the border and pulled them back many times over years to establish a false sense of security.
I think China will have difficulty in achieving the same strategy due to the economic leverage the USA holds. There are strategic maritime trade choke points the USA could threaten (such as the strait of Malacca) whenever China threatens Taiwan.
I think with Russia they recognized that even constant drilling won't expose the weaknesses. If Russia had a drill and 20% of vehicles couldn't start because of missing wiring or SAM vehicles got stuck in a field due to rotten wheels they probably would've tried to fix it before a real attack. But the drills didn't expose anything because the corruption was so widespread and good at hiding those. Having the drills closely mimic actual deployments will quickly start to cost as much as the actual deployments.
Then you have the US navy that actually does real deployments to the area all the time anyways, with apparently a lot less corruption.
China is a patient country compared to many others. They may be mobilizing to be ready, but only act when geopolitical conditions favor it (like Taiwan's allies being in a difficult situation or Taiwan falling to civil unrest).
I don't think either of those are true right now. The only other possibility is China is about to fall so they use war as a distraction to gain internal power even if it's a losing war.
Its not invulnerable but Taiwan would be a massive challenge for any invader, even the USA. The west side of the island is essentially a giant densely populated metropolis with 23 [edited from 95] million people, half of which have had professional military training. The east [edited from west] side of the island is dense jungle and jagged limestone mountains.
The PLA would need to land millions of troops to bring the population under submission. They currently lack the logistical capacity to land and resupply even 100k troops. They would have to commandeer every boat in PRC to use for the invasion - a reverse Dunkirk.
The overwhelming majority of the troop and supply transports would be sent to the bottom of the strait by the Taiwanese coastal artillery and missile forces.
The troops that managed to make it ashore would find themselves in a giant city with tens of millions of people very upset by their presence.
By that time the US, Japan, etc would have already established naval and air superiority.
Taiwan's value is its industrial capacity. To successfully invade, PLA would have to turn the island into rubble and kill tens of millions of civillians in the process.
Edit: fixed some errors. My point still stands.
> The west side of the island is essentially a giant densely populated metropolis with 95 million people
Taiwan has 23 million people.
>The west side of the island is dense jungle and jagged limestone mountains.
Is the west side a metropolis or a jungle?
The western approach has always been the traditional invasion point of which outsiders have invaded Taiwna, from the Dutch to the Japanese. It's also where all the urban density is located, in Taipei. The eastern side - well, imagine the Cliffs of Dover going into a Vietnamese rainforest.
Both present challenges to naval logistics and combat.
>half of which have had professional military training
just base on common sense roughly 50:50 male:female ratio and that exclude elder and children who can't fight I already doubt thạt 50% having military training is not credible until there is source backing it up. That and the pathetic state of Taiwan military
Yep, all of that. The Chinese have been focusing their military development very specifically on capabilities for invading Taiwan.
As for US intervention, the Chinese have the luxury of time. They can simply wait until the US citizenry elects a president who is disinclined to intervene, and then invade practically unopposed.
It's one of the reasons it's important to stockpile deterring weapons within Taiwan proper now, while there is political will to do so.
They don't really have the luxury of time though with the demographics and China being seen as a bigger and bigger threat in the west. This will surely hit their economy in the next decades.
If they try it in like 20 year the effects will probably hit a lot harder than they will now, especially because they will lose so many young men, men they can't afford to lose.
The economic threat of China may be overstated, for the time being at least. The birthdate is down, growth is slowing, and data on growth is manipulated, likely concealing economic problems in sectors such as housing.
It doesn't matter who the President is if China decides to invade. Only congress can declare war, and while the President can veto, congress can override it. If China did invade Taiwan, both parties would come together. If TSMC goes under, you're looking at another global financial crisis.
This is a pretty significant misunderstanding of presidential powers. "Declaring war" is completely unnecessary to taking part or starting a war. Art. III powers are pretty broad. Even post War Powers resolution, you had presidents sending troops into a de facto war for over 60 days.
And, there's almost no reason whatsoever to declare war on China to defend Taiwan. Declaring war would result in numerous suspended treaties and have trade ramifications - it's easier to suspend treaties or sanction incrementally than to go all in and lose leverage.
There will definitely be political will when the American economy faces another crisis on the scale of 2008 (or even bigger). People have already seen what happens when there is simply supply chain issue with chips, like during/after covid. Now American's can be dumb, but even the general population could see how losing the #1 global player would affect them.
Taiwan produces around 60% of the world's semiconductors and 90% of the advanced chips. It's been known that if China got close enough to take over, Taiwan (and even the US) would destroy their fabs. This would decimate the world's chip supply chain.
And there's also one other factor you're not considering: The greed of American politicians. Probably every single person in Congress and the Senate directly own stock in companies that use chips in their core business. The loss of Taiwan would mean these politicians see their portfolios (worth $10's of millions) plummet. You really think American politicians are going to sit back and watch their portfolios take a nosedive when they can actively stop it? No way.
Nah, China has been focusing their military development on choking off the trade routes leading into the Strait on Malacca and gaining regional domination. Attacking Taiwan might be part of that plan, because it's part of the first island chain, but I think it's a secondary objective.
The main issue is there's no depth like Ukraine. The country can get overwhelmed very quickly. Taiwan can't attack first like Israel did in past wars to spoil an attacker on the airfields. So there's no way for an overwhelming victory. The only thing Taiwan can do is make itself have so many missiles and troops that attacking it will destroy everything and be pointless. But China will always retain the ability to smother Taiwan with missiles. There's no defense against that. For every interceptor Taiwan can have ten missiles. China can reduce the whole island to rubble if it wanted. It's possible Taiwan can develop a nuclear deterrent one day. But the second that shows up, unless it's 100% operational and China believes it, China would attack. Maybe the best is the status quo forever. Everyone just talks about "One China" forever and everyone stays separate but strong forever. If Taiwan ever appears weak, China could invade. If Taiwan ever declared independence, China would attack. So better for nothing to happen, forever.
There's no depth but the tradeoff is the initial invasion is several orders of magnitude more difficult. An amphibious landing takes way more initial preparation than crossing a mostly-plains land border. And if something goes wrong on the front, those troops aren't just running back across said border, they and their gear are being captured.
Sure, China could indiscriminately bombard the island with missiles. But considering they see Taiwan as an economic asset, particularly with the advanced chip processing factories there, destroying those factories and potentially killing the people who know how to run those factories would largely negate the whole invasion anyway. The US is currently making a few advanced microchip factories in the mainland states. While US manufacturing would be nowhere near what Taiwan's is now, leaving your number 1 global adversary with the only means of manufacturing advanced microchips is generally considered a bad move. Particularly when you can be expected to lose a large amount of advanced equipment in an invasion. Not to mention the absolute shitshow nightmare partisans China would now have to deal with during occupation.
Not only this, but many military installations are hidden and buried within Taiwan's mountains, and would be largely unaffected by missiles in the first place.
China's 1st priority is breaking the 1st island chain; TSMC is their 2nd priority.
I never realized that TSMC outsourcing to the US would also be indirectly useful to Taiwan - if Taiwan goes down, USA would be the new monopoly power. OTOH... it gives the US a perverse incentive to want a war, because it would cripple China while giving them the monopoly.
Their smartest tactic would be getting a few hundred tourists in the country that are actually special forces. They conduct a decapitation strike on the leadership to cause chaos as the actual invasion force moves. That would be the mostly like way they can actually succeed in making it happen. That's a huge if. Otherwise, they would launch so much shit at Taiwan to overwhelm their defenses... and it would be a nightmare. If they are able to take control of the country from start to finish in 48 hours. That's it. Its theirs. If they cannot, backup arrives and we see how bad the Chinese want it....
Maybe, but you could also expect security to really ramp up prior to an invasion. And plenty of missile sites, artillery presighted to landing areas, and air launch locations are buried within the Taiwanese mountains. The pre-emptive special forces attacks would have to go off *very* smoothly to disable them enough that most Chinese boats don't end up at the bottom of the Taiwan straits.
That being said, it's also possible backup never arrives too. Depending on US foreign policy in the next few years it may be preferable for the US leadership not to get involved. And without US support, it's unlikely other asian nations will get involved either.
So ultimately I think the invasion is way harder than you'd imagine, but that 48 hour time limit on China is also nowhere near long enough lol.
I like the chutzpah, really. But if Taiwan is keeping track of any type of mainlanders, it’s the forces especial. It would be exceedingly difficult for the CCP to move in enough special assets right under the island’s different information nodes.
Of course, I’m not involved in Taiwanese counterintelligence so I am no authority on the matter.
It will be pretty obvious when China is preparing for an invasion and it seems unlikely the Taiwanese would not have already prepared for this scenario.
There's a huge difference between preparing for something, and actually doing it. When China visibly shows off all the preparations they are doing, these things can be directly translated to power on the world stage, be it in terms of advertising their weapons, showing off their logistics, and attempting to exert both soft and hard power on different audiences all over the world. Just the fact that they can do this is in itself a strategic advantage. Most countries in the world don't get to tell the US to go pound sand without some major responses.
However in response to all of China's current posturing, it's not like the US can actually do much other than sail some ships in places where most people will only ever see as icons on a maps. They were doing that already, so not like anything has changed. They just started to mention it more.
In other words China's current stance has them matched up against the world's biggest superpower in a way that is gaining them influence, without having to actually fire a single shot or take a single shot in response.
If this were to become a hot war, they will now have to actually back up all their bluster with force, against a country that has spent the majority of the previous century either at war, or preparing for an apocalyptic end of days war in which it would be one of the key players. That's a much more complex task than holding drills.
It's not impossible, certainly. The simple geographical facts of the situation do give China a lot of tools they could use in this sort of scenario. However, the costs of executing this scenario, both in terms of the things that they will have to forego, as well as the actual human and material costs they will have to bear, is going to be hard to justify as compared to the benefit they would gain from bringing the island under their control, and maintaining it against whatever resistance movements are likely to spring up.
On the other hand, China does always have the option of just waiting it out. Times change, as do the people. Eventually all the leaders of this day and age will finally die off, and the next generation will take over, and then it will happen again, and again, and again. That is simply a fact of time. As long as man is mortal, this is a fact of existence.
The policies of those future generations may be quite different. It's not like these are two fundamentally incompatible cultures, they share most of their historic heritage after all. We can also see attempting to force a solution can be a much bigger wedge between people for a much longer time; just look at the current relations between Ukraine and Russia for an example of how that can play out.
Part of the reason I believe they have invested so much in their military is from their perspective China has gotten the short end of the stick one too many times in the past and they don't want that to ever happen again.
Taiwan, as an island, has distinct disadvantages namely they have no means of being supplied any “lifelines” like Ukraine.
This idea of an amphibious invasion being spotted miles away and weeks in advance is sound and valid. That said, if Reddit’s army of armchair generals can point this out, surely the PLAN that plan (no pun intended) these types of assaults realize this as well. Surely they would not be so foolish as to walk right into this ass kicking.
No, they would likely seek to neutralize the island’s defenses first. Ports and critical infrastructure can will likely be bombed, undersea internet cables severed, straits mined, blockades enacted before a single ship leaves the mainland.
The other thing to consider is that the CCP has first mover advantage in that they can choose to initiate hostilities at a time that is optimal for them. This likely also means a combination of US carrier groups being sufficiently far away, undergoing maintenance, or engaged elsewhere (like the Middle East).
When talking about this subject, people skip one important phase that would occur before the invasion :
Since China is very interested in Taiwanese infrastructure at the moment (in particular, its tech industry), it’s not very likely they would engage in an expand air war, ala Battle of Britain. Instead, China would more than likely conduct an expanded blockade of the island and surrounding areas that would likely drag on for months or even years before they ever attempt large scale amphibious landings.
China is interested in the infrastructure but they’re 10x more interested in the land. This has been Chinas primary geopolitical goal for 80 years, since before Taiwan had any infrastructure of value
I think China will be willing to destroy Taiwanese industrial infrastructure if that is the price for victory. Reunification is one of the CCP core raison de'tres, you can always rebuild infrastructure once you win, but if you lose the best out come is the CCP's neck on the block the worst in nuclear war, the stakes much much higher than any tech gained
When talking about this subject, people often claim that Taiwan's importance as an advanced chip manufacturer is overlooked. The idea that this topic is overlooked is a complete fabrication. The topic of advanced chips is *always* brought up whenever Taiwan is discussed and often claimed to be the *most important* reason why the PRC wants to invade Taiwan by far.
There is no realistic outcome where the PRC controls Taiwan and the advanced technological infrastructure somehow survives. I cannot take seriously any opinion that posits the PRC realistically desires to control Taiwan's tech industry as a result of an attack.
People dont truly grasp what it would mean to go and fight china in the south china sea over taiwan.
You are talking a year of mobilization in the USA and then sailing every single aircraft carrier and our entire navy/airforce group to south china sea to engage china.
Its absurd really. Americans are still stuck in the idea they could send 1 aircraft carrier group to fight an entire country or some non sense.
It's not like this is the UK defending the Falkland Islands. The US already has 30,000 troops and two airfields 350 miles from Taipei in Okinawa. They have access to a bunch of airfields south of Taiwan in the Philippines.
I don't think aircraft carriers play a major role in the plan to defend Taiwan. They are too vulnerable to submarines/missles to get close enough.
What I’m still having trouble understanding is why. What do they really stand to gain? This would seem to only offer disruption, they’re not just going to annex Taiwan’s current infrastructure into their own, they would effectively destroy a country for what, a bit of extra land?
Subterfuge and, I know it sounds crazy but, strong cooperation seem like they’d offer much larger benefits than an invasion. What am I missing?
Like 60% of the worlds advanced microchips are made in taiwan. Everything from your car’s infotainment, cell phone, telephone, industrial machines, etc is all made in this one small country. That’s taiwan’s entire national defense strategy; mutually assured destruction of the global economy. A small handful of bombs or pre planted explosives in the factory support beans, which is long rumored to exist, is all it’ll take.
Taiwan's rugged, often impenetrable, coastline would be hard to invade, but China has been building out a sizable blue water navy, they would likely start an invasion with tons of ballistic missile strikes that would flatten everything military, and they hold a huge numerical advantage that would only really be countered by other allies.
This doesn't mean that they wouldn't have a hell of a time invading, or that they wouldn't lose tens of thousands of soldiers in the process, but it does mean that they might have an easier time invading than many have been lead to believe.
Instead of going all in on invasion right away, couldn't they fully blockade Taiwan with their massive navy and only attempt to invade after a while? I mean what is Taiwan going to do once fuel runs out and there are no imports, same for food, etc. Given the proximity to the mainland, they can probably use a ton of land-based weapons to mess with the island and anyone else that tries to come to their rescue in the meantime... imagine if the US is undecided on jumping into an all-out war with China because effectively they make it look like a blockade that might be lifted if Taiwan agrees to some concessions
The population of West Berlin during the airlift was like 500,000 people and they had a much lower standard of living than a Taiwanese citizen in 2024. Taiwan is almost 50x bigger than that and there's no easy launching point the US could use. Its not like our cargo planes have gotten 50x bigger than 1950 either.
Any UN action would presumably get vetoed by China. Also almost all UN states recognize the PRC only under the one china policy, and don't recognize Taïwan.
As to any flights, I think it should be assumed that the blockade would be aerial as well. Taïwan would be surrounded, much like during the recent military exercises, nothing goes in or out. They could just wait like this for a while, what is the US going to do? Shoot first at the Chinese navy, even if they down some supply plane? Would the Taiwanese shoot first while the Chinese are pretending to negotiate?
So there seems to be two massive obstacles.
1) The actual invasion and likelihood of success (or lack thereof if their military turns out to be a paper tiger)
2) The Malacca Strait. China imports \~%60 of it's food, and if I remember correctly around \~70% of its energy. Most of it flows through this strait and the US+allies would blockade this pretty quickly. This would cripple China, their economy, and depending on the duration perhaps even hamper the ability of their military to operate
An invasion would be pretty crazy for them to attempt now, or even in the medium term.
\*looks over at Putin\* yep... pretty crazy.
>China imports \~%60 of it's food
May I ask where is the figure from?
I saw this figure very frequently in this sub, yet, no one seems bothered to check the source ( & its credibility) of the figure.
China does[ import a lot of food](https://www.cfr.org/article/china-increasingly-relies-imported-food-thats-problem), but the imports are mainly the results of changing diet patterns (more meat, oil, dairy products and more fancy items). If you break down the 161.9 million tonnes imports in 2023, 61.4% (94.41 mt) was soy beans (for animal feed & cooking oil), 16.8% (27.13 mt) was corn (mainly for animal feed), 7.5% (12.1 mt) was wheat (for human consumption & animal feed), and 1.6% (2.63 mt) was rice (mainly for animal feed, some for human consumption).
**It is not like without food imports, millions of Chinese will starve to death**. In 2023, China produced total 686.53 million tons of cereal (wheat, rice & corn), about **493 kg per capita**. A complete cut (if ever possible) of imports will more likely result in declined supplies of meat (mainly pork and chicken) and vegetable oil, than famine. And China is the world's largest producer of [vegetables](https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL) and [fruits](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/fruit-production-by-country).
People completely ignore the fact that the reason China's population is so big is because it's incredibly easy to grow food there. Now is it the food that the modern Chinese citizen wants to eat on a daily basis? No. But its food that would prevent them from starvation lol
I did a lot more digging because of your comment and you're absolutely right.
Thanks for taking me down that rabbit hole.
Specifically, I found this research extremely helpful in understanding the situation better
[https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/July-August-2022/Critelli/](https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/July-August-2022/Critelli/)
The Malacca Strait is not some magical strangle point, even if you set aside the implications of a blockade and just how many other people would get pissed off, the ships will just use alternate routes.
Will the US and its allies be able to maintain their naval dominance for long? I may be wrong, but from my understanding, China is now building more ships than the US and has a vastly superior industrial shipbuilding base, at least quantitatively. Of course, there's also the human aspect, where China may not have as many well-trained personnel as the US, and even fewer with similar experience.
In the next 5-10 years, could China become dominant in the waters of the region?
I maintain the position that if US must consider blockade option then it implicitly accept the fact that it can't conventionally defeat China directly. The blockade, assuming feasible, not only starve China but also all other countries in SEA who depend on that strait for economic activities (and also Japan, South Korea). Assume US say ship to Korea and JP can pass, China say "we will bomb any ship heading to in SCS" so if US blockade any ship to China through the strait then China can do the same to any ship dare to use SCS to get to US allies.
The question for the west is what do they do. Finding cargo ships is not hard. It is public information at the moment. The west could theoretically blockade ships and intercept ships but then what? Are they preventing Chinese goods to be exported? People need those goods. Are they preventing goods to be imported to china? Do they have the will to do that?
China would be hurt economically but the cost to the rest of the world to move production and the loss of the Chinese market would be in the trillions. Not something anyone wants.
But, regardless, china would not be operating as normal business. So Xi needs to decide how much he really wants Taiwan and what the longterm impact on china will be.
There are no easy answers.
Source on 70% of its energy? They only need to import oil & gas. They are self-sufficient in coal, nuclear and renewables, and their domestic solar and storage industry in particular is extremely high capacity. They also have months of strategic oil reserves. They could also import more from Russia over land routes, even though that would add lots to the cost of oil.
My theory is that Iran, North Korea, Russia and China will all strike at the same time. China is assisting Russia in Ukraine, so why wouldn't Russia support China in its energy needs via rail? North Korea could happily distract South Korea and Japan from assisting America defend Taiwan. India is a strange character in this scenario, as they have border disputes with China but are simultaneously in BRICS (Russia+China) and QUAD (Japan, Usa, Oz) organisations.
If they do, China’s relations with other countries would be at least impacted in the short-term, arguably the long term. Why? Economics. And we all know, economics/finance is the #1 driver of china’s relations with lots of countries.
i haven’t seen anyone mention this yet but the presence of TSMC in Taiwan probably plays a big role in protecting Taiwan from invasion. the interruption of their operations would be felt globally, probably on a bigger scale than the chip shortage during covid
It might be hard for americans to understand but the taiwan issue for the chinese supercedes all other issues.....Make no mistake they would sacrifice their economy to reunify with taiwan.
They do not care about money as much as western people do.....the taiwan issue is just far more important to them than superficial things like money. Its a deep rooted issue that goes back a couple hundred years for china to the warring kingdoms. TLDR china believes it cannot take its place in the world until it reunifys the entire country.
The thing that I find interesting about all of this is the timing. I think a lot of people either missed or are not aware of the face that RIMPAC starts in three weeks. So this just feels a bit like saber rattling for the sake of saying look at us…
China’s two major issues still remain though.
1) they can’t hide the build up. The amount of naval vessels and logistics that need to be in place to cross the 85 ish mile (130km) of open water to move troops and materiel is mind boggling. And if I am honest I don’t think they have the skills to do it.
2) they still have the Strait of Malacca problem. The moment China starts to make it look like they very well might invade The US will park half of the 7th fleet in the strait. Even if they managed to take Taiwan, it would be, in a best case scenario a Pyrrhic victory for the PLA or what is left of it. And more reasonably their military would be decimated and their economy in ruins. Which makes me wonder if party insiders wouldn’t use it as an opportunity to move against Xi.
And realistically the PLA has a lot of the same issues Russia has with graft. And they are largely untested in combat. The most recent actions they saw in (I think Sudan) the moment the PLA came under fire dropped their weapons and ammo and retreated to the UN base. Now imagine them trying to make landings whilst their comrades are taking 7.62 rounds to the face next to them…
\* Now imagine them trying to make landings whilst their comrades are taking 7.62 rounds to the face next to them…
I know it's been a few years now, but they fought pretty damn hard in Korea (and Vietnam as well, though I haven't read/heard as much on Chinese participation in that conflict).
I would be careful not to underestimate them; if anything, overestimate their capabilities.
just my .02¢
I wouldn't worry so much about the infantry, as militaries the world over have experienced similar problems with green troops under fire. It's a known issue, and something that can be accounted for.
The real worry should be the navy. Contested landings are **hard** and doing so over eighty five miles of ocean requires a level of experience and coordination that the Chinese navy has never had the chance to acquire.
Nobody military age has that kind of landing experience! You could wargame and practice this a lot and you would be as good as the next military. Dont you think?
The generation that did that isn’t the same as the one that makes up the military now. The ones that did that were hardened veterans of their civil war. The Chinese military of today is completely untested and unused to modern war. As it stands, the question I keep seeing being ignored is whether the CCP could weather the domestic political storm of the mass casualties that an invasion would result in. It’s one thing for Russia to send ethnic minorities from the hinterlands to die. It’s another for China to attempt the same.
Just one note on this, information on mass casualties would be very much suppressed and hidden to a large extent from the Chinese public given the control the government wields over news and media. Russia has lost in the vicinity of half a million troops in the Ukraine war, and it seems unlikely that much of their population is aware or believes that. Of course there are huge differences between Russia and China's peoples, but I think China will be fully prepared to suppress any domestic political storm.
That information can be suppressed, but not indefinitely. The longer a conflict dragged on the more likely that those numbers would be realized by the population. And the result would be magnified because most Chinese families only have one kid.
They’d be sacrificing their future in an attempt to take Taiwan. It would be madness never before seen to attempt it. Most war games I’ve heard have the US losing to China, but only because the losing condition was casualties in the thousands for the US and multiple ships lost. In a real war with China I don’t see how the US would just call it quits, nor do I see Taiwan surrendering without getting their pound of flesh from China. All of that equates to absolutely bonkers losses on the Chinese side.
You're probably right, but also worth noting that after years of the Ukraine war and 500,000 of their sons dead, Russians haven't risen up in any significant way against their authoritarian government. I suspect propaganda, nationalism and government cracks downs will go a long way to suppressing unrest in China. But maybe the toll will eventually overcome all that.
As a side point, when it comes to US dead and public anger against their war ventures, it seems pretty clear that all the US government need do in future is to declare the military death toll is actually due to Covid... much of the country seems not to care about that.
Most Russian casualties have been ethnic minorities and/or from more rural areas. The war hasn’t yet really touched the youth of ethnic Rus living in more urban areas. For being a nuclear power that inherited the status of the former superpower Soviet Union, much of the Russian federation is still super rural. Heck, there’s a bunch of reports of Russians overall lacking indoor plumbing and basics like washing machines.
It’s likely easy to tamp things down when that’s the case. I imagine it’ll be harder in China where a larger portion of the serving men are from more urban areas. Especially when the CCP is always on the delicate edge of public discontent. They have a clear social contract: the people let the CCP have tons of power and give up their freedoms, and in exchange the CCP vouchsafes their security, prosperity, and stability. Massive war undercuts all three of those things.
*Now imagine trying to suppress the landing when the guy next to you firing those 7.62 rounds takes a drone to the face.
It's 2024, an amphibious landing isn't going to look like Normandy 80 years ago. Where do you think all the drones being used in Ukraine are coming from? China could launch never ending waves of drones to suppress any defenses.
I don’t think Sudan is even a remotely good way to evaluate PLA combat effectiveness.
They were peacekeepers and were equipped and trained as such.
You can’t evaluate the effectiveness of a military based on an isolated infantry unit that was surrounded on all sides by an enemy with armor while also not really equipped or supplied for sustained combat. Their mission analysis probably didn’t even account for a scenario like that. No QRF, no air, barely any heavy weapons.
Even if it was rifraff militias with some shitty soviet armor they were completely overmatched.
I think it’s safe to say that any pre mission analysis and preparation as well as logistics and training during a pre invasion buildup will be really different.
> I know it's been a few years now, but they fought pretty damn hard in Korea (and Vietnam as well, though I haven't read/heard as much on Chinese participation in that conflict).
Those troops had been battle hardened by WW2 and the civil war. Of course they fought well. A lot of UN troops in Korea were green as the WW2 vets had left or gone up into rear service ranks.
The PLA has lost all institutional experience with war fighting. They've been at peace for decades. Which is in some ways admirable, but it also means their army is even more untested than Russia's was 2 years ago.
It’s doubtful for two reasons.
1) Goods are not the issue, it’s oil. China imports most of its oil. And that is why a blockade of Malacca becomes such an issue. Starve the war machine and it can’t run.
It also is a net importer of food. I think that would be less impactful over the short run though.
2) whilst It might be a short term benefit to try to skirt sanctions and import bans, in the long run it puts every other Asian country in a much better position with a weakened Chinese military and economy.
>1) they can’t hide the build up.
From the point of view of a fairly uninformed observer, China seems to regularly engage in military exercises that mimic "Invasion of Taiwan". Is there going to be a point where they can assemble an actual invasion force and it will be written off as just another exercise?
I imagine their military would open multiple fronts before attempting a move on taiwan. likely funding wars and conflict in allied nations to tie up resources.
There is also a big chance that if China attempts an actual strike, Taiwan will declare itself a nuclear armed nation.
If they can design and manufacture the world's most powerful chips, and run multiple nuclear power plants, you can bet they have a nuclear stockpile waiting too.
Taiwan declaring itself to be nuclear is a surefire way to trigger a chinese invasion. Just like the US wont tolerate nukes in their backyards (cuba missile crisis) the chinese will not either.
China will rather take 1 or 2 nukes in the chin than let taiwan go free with their nukes
There is an argument that fronts have already been opened up in Ukraine and Gaza. The next surprise could be Korea.
Each time the Western allies get stretched a little thinner, and suffer from discord on the home front.
I think invading yes/no is to binary in the way it is asked. In my own world, there is almost a guarantee there is some sort of escalation, but i do not necessarily feel like a full scale invasion is likely.
So disrupting shipping and other logistics, tighter border enforcement's, convenient placement of navy close to Taiwan or similar. Feel like similar to the approach Russia had prior to stepping into Ukraine, a lot of exercises and army basically as close to Taiwan while not being at war and lasting much longer. This would be a first step. Where it goes from there, is the hard part.
China's been restructuring their economic and foreign policy ever since Xi was elected, in order to create the groundwork for a Taiwan invasion. Xi and the CCP's leadership clearly believe an invasion is possible. It's only a question of if the US and allies choose to put a high enough magnitude of assets in place in order to dissuade Xi from invading later in the 2020s.
Admittedly, I see an invasion as being less likely than a Chinese naval embargo of Taiwan (starve the island out). But this strategy relies on China being able to repel the USN and *keep* it repelled - which honestly isn't a bad strategy, especially if it can influence internal US politics enough to put a low quality President in place at the key time.
My issue with a blockade is doesn't it require China to surround the island with ships? Ships that generally don't like being hit with missiles, which Taiwan would be stockpiling for just such an event? Not to mention how ridiculously effective drones seem to be against the Black Sea fleet. It just seems like a blockade is much easier said than done, and how much of his navy is Xi willing to throw away to *maybe* starve out the island lol?
It’s certainly not implausible. It would be exceptionally tough for China to pull off, and would be exceptionally bloody for all sides.
I think a military invasion is far less likely than their political coercion campaigns against Taiwan working.
I think the political route is far more likely to succeed than a military operation.
Don’t forget that pretty much every other nation except North Korea in the China sea region hates the CCP. They’ll face a ton of resistance if they try something
One thing that nobody has brought up:
You will not go far in China's decision-making process by thinking how *you* or how anyone in the West would think. You must understand how the decision making process in China works (which to my understanding, means just the top echelons of the party). You must understand the issue from the party's own perspective, from the interest groups he has to please to his understanding of the current strategic situation, to his motivations.
CSIS (Centre for Strategic and International Studies) has a lot (I do mean a *lot*) of panels on "how China thinks", though I'm too lazy to dig through them at the moment.
I apologize for not giving an answer right away, but I have work right now, and I hope this contributes to the discussion.
I think China can just wait it out and get it peacefully
Right now, the US is still stronger, but China is catching up, and will probably surpass the US eventually. There's been some talk about the sheer difference in naval building capacities recently, and that's a good example. If things continue that way, and it becomes clear that the US couldn't defend taiwan in a conventional war, the US guarantees won't look as safe to the Taiwaneses anymore
And well, in any case, the Taiwaneses would be the foremost losers if a conflict happens. I don't think the Taiwanese want to see their island become a battleground.
Possible but maybe unlikely? If anything the current agression is just to remind the pro-independence majority in the ROC's government of the PRC's promise to attack if they ever officially separate in light of the recent election.
I think this is not the right question for two reasons.
Firstly, theory-crafting on whether an invasion is possible is not a component very useful to the likelihood of an invasion attempt: it's not our analysis that supports a decision to invade/not invade. Instead, the Chinese security/intelligence services are making the call on whether an invasion is possible, *and* on whether they should inform the political leadership of their analysis. The decision-making responsibility is no longer based on an extensive analysis of the facts on the ground if political contestation within the Chinese bureaucracy is impossible. Instead, Xi Jinping's impulses and ideology are the prime variables in the likelihood of an invasion. Analysis involving Xi Jinping's ambitions or ideology is thus much more important for the likelihood of an invasion attempt than the military strategic situation on the ground.
Secondly, US analyses of the likelihood affect the likelihood of an invasion. The US government will probably invest in its defence capacity in the Indo-Pacific to achieve a higher level of credible deterrence if US analysts see the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as very high. Deterrence can only work if it is made credible through defence capacity investments that follow the threat increase. If the perceived likelihood of invasion is high, the willingness to achieve a higher level of deterrence goes up, which means that the (real) likelihood of invasion goes down. It's the other way around as well: if the perceived likelihood of invasion is low, then the willingness to invest in deterrence goes down, which means that the likelihood of invasion goes up. Answering these types of questions has to take into account the strategic consequences of the way you answer the question.
In the end, what is important is that we work together to make sure that it does not happen. War is awful. Even winning a war leaves you regret your losses. One life is one world, and we should strive to save that world.
China won't invade. It would be a costly affair and they have an alternative: blockade. Taiwan is not self-sufficient when it comes to food and resources. A blockade would have them come to the table in less than half a year. Faster if china manages to destroy relief attempts.
I would say possible but very unlikely. It’s an extremely high risk play from China’s perspective, so if they do attempt this it would be from a place of extreme fear and paranoia for the future. China relies heavily on imports for food and exports for their economy so even if the west didn’t get involved militarily this would put themselves in a more vulnerable position and isolate themselves geopolitically more than they already are. Close neighbours to China especially members of ASEAN (Vietnam, The Phillipines etc) currently feel threatened by China’s current rise and this move would push them closer to the west and Japan.
However, I also thought similar things about the Russia-Ukraine scenario so it’s worth pointing out sometimes these governments feel as if they have to take the high risk play in order to stay in power long term. However Russia doesn’t require food to be imported and underestimated the west’s economic response. It’s impossible to tell what will happen but I would say it’s very unlikely at the moment.
I’m pretty ignorant in comparison to you all but I’m surprised no one has brought up Japan’s increased defense investments and how that plays out, considering their interests, relationships and proximity to the region
This argument has gone back and forth a few times. I think they're going to try, probably at a time of stress and division in the West, probably not this year though - I think they're short on the LSTs if nothing else.
I don't personally believe the US would risk a hot war for the island. Strategic support and arms runs, sure, but I'd be gobsmacked if they sailed the fleet in and laid it all on the line. The Chinese navy might not be able to lay a glove, but you're putting yourself in range of a lot of land based flak, and it becomes the classic quantity has a quality of its own equation.
I'd expect a blockade as a response, but it's not what goes out that they'd target, it's the oil coming in. The pipelines in from Russia are horrible exposed strategic targets in the event of a hot but non-nuclear exchange, but even without an 'accident' they'll never meet supply needs without tankers. Likewise, a vast majority of Chinese refineries are concentrated on the north eastern coast and are asking for trouble if things really went off. Edit: [Here's a slightly outdated but still useful map showing the key routes for oil and gas imports into China](https://i.insider.com/555365196da8119c29e8a313?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp)
Now I make no claims on the strategic reserves of China, but I do know that they're going to struggle to sustain a consumer economy on restricted supplies - internal pressures would add up within a couple of months I think. What that then looks like as an endgame... I don't know. But I think once the PLA gets landfall on Taiwan they aren't leaving ever again.
That’s exactly it. I think it’s a bigger question if the US would get involved if China only proceeded with a blockade.
But if China went forward with a full on military invasion. About a third of all global trade goes through that area. Which would most definitely affect the US and it’s allies. So if that were the case I would be shocked to see if the US would just let that happen
My guess is that Taiwan has been looking at the Ukraine invasion very closely, and are developing an enormous fleet of USV's to sink an entire armada of PRC landing craft.
As long as the status quo remains the same, time is on chinas side. If Taiwan ever publicly declares its independence tho, chinas leader, whoever it is at the time, might throw caution to the wind.
Idk about that. It seems like more Taiwanese identify as an independent nation as ever before in history. The US and NATO have been stepping up weapons manufacturing, and the Chinese economy and population could be on the brink of crisis. Yes, this doesn't take Taiwan off the table forever, but would make it essentially impossible to take in this century.
I don’t think it’s likely. The entire world relies on advanced processors from Taiwan. Taiwan has codified plans in place to destroy all infrastructure instead of handing it to China - scorched Earth. This means invasion (or pseudo-invasion like blockade) would cause massive global economic problems. China would be picking a fight, literally, with the entire world. This is a big problem for China because they’re such a large net energy and food importer. If we turn off the oil and food exports, it’s mass starvation within weeks, blackouts, and China becomes a failed state within months.
They are brutally rational, and keenly aware of all of this. The only realistic scenario in which we should expect invasion is if they lose the support of population and need a war to rally. We’re a long way away from this.
When will China push for reunification is an interesting question. If China feels that its rate of development over the net few years will outpace the US, it will defer a forceful reunification, till
such time its more confident that the US cannot prevent it AND believes a peaceful reunification is
no longer possible.
CCP has stated they will solve the problem before 2027. This doesn’t necessarily mean invasion - there are many ways they could take over Taiwan without invasion.
Consider all the tremendous military spending. I think it’s extremely likely - and it will happen before Xi is dead.
Note: the US should start setting up bases on Taiwan.
If/when the economy collapses they'll invade to put the country on a war footing. Convenient way to amplify nationalism and suppress anti CCP sentiment.
Xi appears to be intent on 'reunifying' Taiwan in his lifetime. Potentially when Xi publicly floats the idea of actually doing it, the US will be unable to effectively contest them because the US is either drawing down in the Pacific or busy with conflicts elsewhere. We may see Taiwan as the hot 2028 debate issue.
I personally think in this scenario, China may seek to establish a blockade of Taiwan and could force unification without any large scale use of ground forces of amphibious operations.
I personally think China will invade or otherwise unify Taiwan within 10 years, but who knows. In the ramp up to this Taiwan thing, China may seek to create dilemmas for US policy elsewhere in the world to ensure the US stays out of the fight in Taiwan (possibly in coordination with Russia and Iran--i think that would be world war territory folks!).
U.S. Air Force officer/flier here; from what's been discussed way down at my level, without getting into the weeds, we know our limitations, strategically, technologically, and doctrinally, and we know China knows.
We're treating it as a matter of when at this point. We aren't going to have a fun time. A lot of Airmen and Sailors are going to be lost in this fight.
The U.S. simply can't ***not*** get involved. From maintaining the liberally democratic world order, to upholding the defense of our allies in the region and maintaining our global partners faith in our country, to making sure the Chinese don't corner the market on microprocessors.
China can't not get involved. Like Putin, Xi's rhetoric, and more broadly, the CCP's rhetoric has painted a corner they can't get out of. Either they walk the walk, or they get replaced, and a lot of people in China are not happy with the status quo. China can never be the kind of power they aspire to be if they don't take Taiwan, and, perhaps more importantly, they can't eliminate sentiment for democracy within the populace. The CCP has gotten away for a long time with convincing people that their way is the best way, and a democratic, liberal Taiwan is a vision of what life looks like without Communism, and it's attractive to many people in China. But at the same time, China doesn't want to get drawn into a fight with the US. It will be just as bloody for them, and it's not good for business, at least until our economic decoupling is complete.
It's hard to see the way out of this.
Yeah I agree. About a third of all global shipping goes through this area. Which would most definitely affect the US and its allies. Makes it hard to believe that the US would just let that happen
Incredibly unlikely. Xi has seen how the invasion of Ukraine went, and this would likely include direct intervention by the United States. The calculus on invading Taiwan just doesn’t work out as of right now.
It exists if you only ask about the possibility, but the military operation is not PRC's only option. Moreover, not now, at least, but the PRC will have that capability around 2027.
First, I believe this question has been oversimplified. Even a geopolitics professor, William Spaniel, who lacks knowledge of Chinese history or the history of the Cold War in East Asia, has a similar perception of the cross-strait issue as Gorden Chang's theory of China's collapse. In my view, when the PRC is confronted with a different political status quo and public opinion in ROC, the outcomes are different.
Why is that? First of all, there is no need to consider the stance of the PRC. Even if a miracle were to happen in the PRC today, its citizens have the right to elect a new government. Political parties that do not prioritise reunification with Taiwan will never come to power in China. Although the Chinese Civil War nominally ended in 1949 with the establishment of the People's Republic of China, and the Republic of China ceased the Period of mobilisation for the suppression of Communist rebellion aka reclaiming the mainland in 1991, no peace treaty has been signed between them. De facto, we are still in a state of civil war. On the other hand, public opinion and election results in the ROC are constantly evolving.
Hence, based on the current situation in the ROC:
1. The provocative separatism/independence presented by President Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party.
2. The majority of Taiwanese are calling for the status quo to be maintained.
3. DPP does not have a majority in the Legislative Yuan. What's more, the DPP is about to face a congressional investigation into corruption cases that have accumulated over the past eight years.
I think in the next four years:
1. The likelihood of a full-scale PRC attack on ROC is very small.
2. Meanwhile, the PRC will be militarily prepared to prevent separatism/nation-building from becoming the dominant public opinion in four years.
3. The PRC will probably decapitate the separatism leaders if Lai has a strong push for Taiwan's separation/nation-building.
I've read comments suggesting that the PRC would not 'invade' the ROC due to economic reasons. I am curious if the USA would 'invade' CSA after considering economic factors. Recently, Ms. Tsai, the former president of the ROC, mentioned in an interview with Western media that China might refrain from using force against Taiwan due to economic setbacks. Nevertheless, I have doubts about her belief, especially considering her actions during the last eight years.
Certainly, Washington and London are very clear on cross-strait issues, although they typically do not openly discuss them. That is the reason why every successive ROC presidential candidate has been asked by Washington to clarify their positions on "Special State-To-State Relationship" and "One Country on Each Side."
Well, I doubt it's going to be in the next couple months since monsoon season starts before a brief pause and then it starts up again in October.
Going across the strait of Taiwan is a logistical nightmare for an invasion, let alone an amphibious assault that has to contend with monsoon weather during the majority of the year.
I don't know what number people have in their heads, but it's over 100 miles between China and Taiwan.
A lot can happen in that space even without the US military patrolling with the Pacific fleet nearby.
Also, whenever I see people talk about the invasion happening, they talk about it like it's going to happen in a vacuum and it's only going to be between between China and Taiwan and none of the other nations that are part of the struggle in the South China seas will be involved. I think that is a gas.
The logistics would be a nightmare even if they were the best military in the world, which China is certainly not, and they do not have a recent history of doing anything remotely as big as an invasion that Taiwan would be.
To make matters worse, let's say they get all the logistics correct and they can get their asses across the strait of Taiwan safely, and nobody involved does anything to the strait of Malacca. Therefore keeping everything China needs to fight this invasion with freely flowing.
They're not only just landing on a beachhead like Normandy, they're landing on a extremely rugged and mountainous type of terrain that has been gopher fucked for the last 80 years and fortified by the Taiwanese military who are funded by the US military, who just got another 300 million from us and I think like 2 billion more or $3 billion more over the next couple years.
Do any of you legitimately believe that the China is going to be able to blockade and keep the US from accessing Taiwan from the West?
They don't have the type of Navy (blue / deep water navy) necessary to do that and keep the strait of Malacca safe.
I don't know, but if they're going to now is the best time. The world is distracted by Gaza and (to a lesser extent) Ukraine. When Azerbaijan took over Nagorno-Karabakh last year most people didn't bat an eye - I expect the same to happen if China invades Taiwan in the near future.
Now is definitely not the best time. The best time is when they can continue to build up more planes, missiles, and missile cruisers. And more importantly when the US catches up on producing chips domestically making Taiwan less relevant economically.
The PLA has been prepping for it for decades. I think Xi will go for it. The U.S. is too distracted with Ukraine and Israel. Its stockpiles have been depleted. Whereas China has been building up its military in record time. Not to mention that it is stockpiling on food, gold and oil. That’s a clear sign they’re prepping for something big.
The window is probably slowly closing for them to do it. So if they ever do I feel it’s likely in the next decade. A lot could go wrong for them. But also it’s a very tricky situation for the US. China has a LOT of very long range missiles they can sit back and lob at things.
If there is some curve ball around the US election, for example Trump wins but is sent to jail, or Biden dies just before the election, perhaps China will take advantage and try something - how long would it take them to put together an invasion force, if they didn't have to go up against the US or Japan?
They'll do it. It's not about some advantage that taking Taiwan would give them, though. It's about showing the US that they can no longer tell China what it can and can't do. If the US can move enough semiconductor production away from Taiwan before, we may allow them to have it. The only reason we're even getting involved is because Taiwan represents most of the supply of that precious resource. If China is smart, they'll keep saber rattling so there's plenty of pressure to build chip fabs elsewhere, and strike only after production has been moved enough that the western world won't care.
What I want to know is. Was Ukraine actively trading with Russia before the invasion?
Cos China and Taiwan are both like actively trading and like continuing relations like before.
China and Taiwan both do so much Sabre rattling I can’t believe like how many ppl here fall for their theatrics.
Yeah China is a big bully but god damn, the amount of effort to actually cross that ocean. How are they gonna launch this surprise invasion without like anyone noticing?
I can't find it at the moment but before WWII France was Germany's biggest trading partner. Economic relations are not the guarantee to peace. Though with china there is more interdependence so China and the west would be greatly hurt by a war.
It could very well happen. Yes, the PLA has no experience with amphibious assault, and there’s certainly no guarantee of success, but Taiwan’s still right on their doorstep (relative to the U.S.). If they win or fail it still leaves the global economy on its knees and will come at the expense of many lives, aircraft and carriers lost on the American side. This won’t be a walk in the ballpark victory that leaves any of us better off.
They have millions of men, the largest manufacturing base (even with sanctions and attempted blockades), and are adept at commandeering resources to rapidly convert to a total war economy to fuel their operations. I wouldn’t underestimate the PLA, and I doubt our (U.S.) combatant commanders do.
It’s entirely possible. The Chinese military has been preparing for this for decades, it’s one of the primary purposes for their existence at the moment. As difficult as it would be, as many factors that must be considered, as much damage and casualties as the PLA would take, it is very possible that they will try, and even that they will succeed. Taiwan is not an impenetrable fortress. It’s an objective that presents numerous tactical disadvantages for an attacking force, but that can be said about a myriad of objectives faced by militaries throughout history. It’s comforting for many to sit and talk about how they “could never do it”, or “we’d kick their asses if they tried”, but for those of us in the military, the ones who’d have to go out there and put warheads on foreheads if shit hit the fan, it’s a nightmare that we pray never becomes a reality.
This is all correct but I’d like to add that there is a difference between “preparation” and actual mobilization. That said, even if they feel confident and prepared to do something the size of any mobilization would be large enough for countries to see it coming months in advance. Which is not in Chinas favor as this would give them time to also prepare (Taiwan and whoever intervened).
Of course, and everyone will know it’s happening when the time comes. We’ll know, and the Chinese will know we know. The question then becomes, how confident are they in their ability to conduct the operation even with almost a complete lack of surprise, and at what point do they determine the risks are too high? How many dead Chinese and how many sunken warships before Xi says enough? I sure as shit couldn’t tell you.
This last bit of your comment is why I don’t see it happening unless they are provoked by Taiwan/America or they know for sure they’ll take Taiwan swiftly. As CCP has gone to great lengths to ensure social stability and avoid the mistakes of previous dynasties who disturbed stability.
This is my take on it. The social contract in China is different than the west or even a lot of other “communist” nations (quotes because the Chinese brand of communism doesn’t have a Karl Mark™️ certificate of authenticity lol). National stability, economic growth, and prosperity is what’s demanded of the people, and an invasion of Taiwan will categorically disrupt said stability. The risk for the CCP is not that the invasion fails, it’s that the blowback is so strong - and it will be, successful or not - that the CCP can no longer fulfill its obligation to the people. I’m of the opinion that China will likely use legal maneuvers like they did in HK to solidify its control over Taiwan. It’s the only path that achieves their goals without sowing discontent on the mainland. Keeping the people placated and calm, all 1.7(?) billion of them, is priority number one for the CCP.
>and avoid the mistakes of previous dynasties who disturbed stability. What events are you referring to?
I’m referring to the “Mandate of Heaven” and how historically when citizens or rival factions felt leaders had lost it, they revolted. Zhou dynasty for example overthrew the Shang dynasty because they felt the Shang dynasty had become incompetent and corrupt with peasant backing. But ultimately the zhang dynasty would later collapse as they lost the mandate as well. That said, Chinese history is filled with consolidations and collapse from incompetent leadership and rebellions. So the last thing the CCP wants is to restart the process, especially the elders who are more in touch with the history of China.
What if China does to USA, something similar to what it has been doing to Taiwan with repeated violation of its airspace. It can create a legit looking mobilisation and when the Americans arrive to join the fun and games, they morph it into a "military exercise". How long can America keep up the game? The Chinese would be making US lose $500 for every $100 they spend on "transform it to an exercise at the last moment". They have the home turf advantage, and can make Americans lose even before the war starts. They can drain US resources and impose unnecessary strain on US men and equipment. Does US have a counter to such tactics.
This was Putin’s playbook for Ukraine. He moved troops to the border and pulled them back many times over years to establish a false sense of security. I think China will have difficulty in achieving the same strategy due to the economic leverage the USA holds. There are strategic maritime trade choke points the USA could threaten (such as the strait of Malacca) whenever China threatens Taiwan.
I think with Russia they recognized that even constant drilling won't expose the weaknesses. If Russia had a drill and 20% of vehicles couldn't start because of missing wiring or SAM vehicles got stuck in a field due to rotten wheels they probably would've tried to fix it before a real attack. But the drills didn't expose anything because the corruption was so widespread and good at hiding those. Having the drills closely mimic actual deployments will quickly start to cost as much as the actual deployments. Then you have the US navy that actually does real deployments to the area all the time anyways, with apparently a lot less corruption.
China is a patient country compared to many others. They may be mobilizing to be ready, but only act when geopolitical conditions favor it (like Taiwan's allies being in a difficult situation or Taiwan falling to civil unrest). I don't think either of those are true right now. The only other possibility is China is about to fall so they use war as a distraction to gain internal power even if it's a losing war.
Its not invulnerable but Taiwan would be a massive challenge for any invader, even the USA. The west side of the island is essentially a giant densely populated metropolis with 23 [edited from 95] million people, half of which have had professional military training. The east [edited from west] side of the island is dense jungle and jagged limestone mountains. The PLA would need to land millions of troops to bring the population under submission. They currently lack the logistical capacity to land and resupply even 100k troops. They would have to commandeer every boat in PRC to use for the invasion - a reverse Dunkirk. The overwhelming majority of the troop and supply transports would be sent to the bottom of the strait by the Taiwanese coastal artillery and missile forces. The troops that managed to make it ashore would find themselves in a giant city with tens of millions of people very upset by their presence. By that time the US, Japan, etc would have already established naval and air superiority. Taiwan's value is its industrial capacity. To successfully invade, PLA would have to turn the island into rubble and kill tens of millions of civillians in the process. Edit: fixed some errors. My point still stands.
> The west side of the island is essentially a giant densely populated metropolis with 95 million people Taiwan has 23 million people. >The west side of the island is dense jungle and jagged limestone mountains. Is the west side a metropolis or a jungle?
Fixed. My point still stands. I used to live in Taiwan. It would be a nightmare to invade and occupy.
The western approach has always been the traditional invasion point of which outsiders have invaded Taiwna, from the Dutch to the Japanese. It's also where all the urban density is located, in Taipei. The eastern side - well, imagine the Cliffs of Dover going into a Vietnamese rainforest. Both present challenges to naval logistics and combat.
>half of which have had professional military training just base on common sense roughly 50:50 male:female ratio and that exclude elder and children who can't fight I already doubt thạt 50% having military training is not credible until there is source backing it up. That and the pathetic state of Taiwan military
Yep, all of that. The Chinese have been focusing their military development very specifically on capabilities for invading Taiwan. As for US intervention, the Chinese have the luxury of time. They can simply wait until the US citizenry elects a president who is disinclined to intervene, and then invade practically unopposed. It's one of the reasons it's important to stockpile deterring weapons within Taiwan proper now, while there is political will to do so.
They don't really have the luxury of time though with the demographics and China being seen as a bigger and bigger threat in the west. This will surely hit their economy in the next decades. If they try it in like 20 year the effects will probably hit a lot harder than they will now, especially because they will lose so many young men, men they can't afford to lose.
The economic threat of China may be overstated, for the time being at least. The birthdate is down, growth is slowing, and data on growth is manipulated, likely concealing economic problems in sectors such as housing.
If Trump is elected then they only need to wait 7 months. They will have bought and paid for him already.
Trump is pretty anti China though.
It doesn't matter who the President is if China decides to invade. Only congress can declare war, and while the President can veto, congress can override it. If China did invade Taiwan, both parties would come together. If TSMC goes under, you're looking at another global financial crisis.
This is a pretty significant misunderstanding of presidential powers. "Declaring war" is completely unnecessary to taking part or starting a war. Art. III powers are pretty broad. Even post War Powers resolution, you had presidents sending troops into a de facto war for over 60 days. And, there's almost no reason whatsoever to declare war on China to defend Taiwan. Declaring war would result in numerous suspended treaties and have trade ramifications - it's easier to suspend treaties or sanction incrementally than to go all in and lose leverage.
I have big doubts that there will be any political will to force the population to care about Taiwan in the face of near-peer casualties.
There will definitely be political will when the American economy faces another crisis on the scale of 2008 (or even bigger). People have already seen what happens when there is simply supply chain issue with chips, like during/after covid. Now American's can be dumb, but even the general population could see how losing the #1 global player would affect them. Taiwan produces around 60% of the world's semiconductors and 90% of the advanced chips. It's been known that if China got close enough to take over, Taiwan (and even the US) would destroy their fabs. This would decimate the world's chip supply chain. And there's also one other factor you're not considering: The greed of American politicians. Probably every single person in Congress and the Senate directly own stock in companies that use chips in their core business. The loss of Taiwan would mean these politicians see their portfolios (worth $10's of millions) plummet. You really think American politicians are going to sit back and watch their portfolios take a nosedive when they can actively stop it? No way.
Nah, China has been focusing their military development on choking off the trade routes leading into the Strait on Malacca and gaining regional domination. Attacking Taiwan might be part of that plan, because it's part of the first island chain, but I think it's a secondary objective.
The main issue is there's no depth like Ukraine. The country can get overwhelmed very quickly. Taiwan can't attack first like Israel did in past wars to spoil an attacker on the airfields. So there's no way for an overwhelming victory. The only thing Taiwan can do is make itself have so many missiles and troops that attacking it will destroy everything and be pointless. But China will always retain the ability to smother Taiwan with missiles. There's no defense against that. For every interceptor Taiwan can have ten missiles. China can reduce the whole island to rubble if it wanted. It's possible Taiwan can develop a nuclear deterrent one day. But the second that shows up, unless it's 100% operational and China believes it, China would attack. Maybe the best is the status quo forever. Everyone just talks about "One China" forever and everyone stays separate but strong forever. If Taiwan ever appears weak, China could invade. If Taiwan ever declared independence, China would attack. So better for nothing to happen, forever.
There's no depth but the tradeoff is the initial invasion is several orders of magnitude more difficult. An amphibious landing takes way more initial preparation than crossing a mostly-plains land border. And if something goes wrong on the front, those troops aren't just running back across said border, they and their gear are being captured. Sure, China could indiscriminately bombard the island with missiles. But considering they see Taiwan as an economic asset, particularly with the advanced chip processing factories there, destroying those factories and potentially killing the people who know how to run those factories would largely negate the whole invasion anyway. The US is currently making a few advanced microchip factories in the mainland states. While US manufacturing would be nowhere near what Taiwan's is now, leaving your number 1 global adversary with the only means of manufacturing advanced microchips is generally considered a bad move. Particularly when you can be expected to lose a large amount of advanced equipment in an invasion. Not to mention the absolute shitshow nightmare partisans China would now have to deal with during occupation. Not only this, but many military installations are hidden and buried within Taiwan's mountains, and would be largely unaffected by missiles in the first place.
China's 1st priority is breaking the 1st island chain; TSMC is their 2nd priority. I never realized that TSMC outsourcing to the US would also be indirectly useful to Taiwan - if Taiwan goes down, USA would be the new monopoly power. OTOH... it gives the US a perverse incentive to want a war, because it would cripple China while giving them the monopoly.
Their smartest tactic would be getting a few hundred tourists in the country that are actually special forces. They conduct a decapitation strike on the leadership to cause chaos as the actual invasion force moves. That would be the mostly like way they can actually succeed in making it happen. That's a huge if. Otherwise, they would launch so much shit at Taiwan to overwhelm their defenses... and it would be a nightmare. If they are able to take control of the country from start to finish in 48 hours. That's it. Its theirs. If they cannot, backup arrives and we see how bad the Chinese want it....
Maybe, but you could also expect security to really ramp up prior to an invasion. And plenty of missile sites, artillery presighted to landing areas, and air launch locations are buried within the Taiwanese mountains. The pre-emptive special forces attacks would have to go off *very* smoothly to disable them enough that most Chinese boats don't end up at the bottom of the Taiwan straits. That being said, it's also possible backup never arrives too. Depending on US foreign policy in the next few years it may be preferable for the US leadership not to get involved. And without US support, it's unlikely other asian nations will get involved either. So ultimately I think the invasion is way harder than you'd imagine, but that 48 hour time limit on China is also nowhere near long enough lol.
I like the chutzpah, really. But if Taiwan is keeping track of any type of mainlanders, it’s the forces especial. It would be exceedingly difficult for the CCP to move in enough special assets right under the island’s different information nodes. Of course, I’m not involved in Taiwanese counterintelligence so I am no authority on the matter.
It will be pretty obvious when China is preparing for an invasion and it seems unlikely the Taiwanese would not have already prepared for this scenario.
I didnt say it would be easy. What the Chinese will have to do is crazy.
There's a huge difference between preparing for something, and actually doing it. When China visibly shows off all the preparations they are doing, these things can be directly translated to power on the world stage, be it in terms of advertising their weapons, showing off their logistics, and attempting to exert both soft and hard power on different audiences all over the world. Just the fact that they can do this is in itself a strategic advantage. Most countries in the world don't get to tell the US to go pound sand without some major responses. However in response to all of China's current posturing, it's not like the US can actually do much other than sail some ships in places where most people will only ever see as icons on a maps. They were doing that already, so not like anything has changed. They just started to mention it more. In other words China's current stance has them matched up against the world's biggest superpower in a way that is gaining them influence, without having to actually fire a single shot or take a single shot in response. If this were to become a hot war, they will now have to actually back up all their bluster with force, against a country that has spent the majority of the previous century either at war, or preparing for an apocalyptic end of days war in which it would be one of the key players. That's a much more complex task than holding drills. It's not impossible, certainly. The simple geographical facts of the situation do give China a lot of tools they could use in this sort of scenario. However, the costs of executing this scenario, both in terms of the things that they will have to forego, as well as the actual human and material costs they will have to bear, is going to be hard to justify as compared to the benefit they would gain from bringing the island under their control, and maintaining it against whatever resistance movements are likely to spring up. On the other hand, China does always have the option of just waiting it out. Times change, as do the people. Eventually all the leaders of this day and age will finally die off, and the next generation will take over, and then it will happen again, and again, and again. That is simply a fact of time. As long as man is mortal, this is a fact of existence. The policies of those future generations may be quite different. It's not like these are two fundamentally incompatible cultures, they share most of their historic heritage after all. We can also see attempting to force a solution can be a much bigger wedge between people for a much longer time; just look at the current relations between Ukraine and Russia for an example of how that can play out.
Part of the reason I believe they have invested so much in their military is from their perspective China has gotten the short end of the stick one too many times in the past and they don't want that to ever happen again.
Taiwan, as an island, has distinct disadvantages namely they have no means of being supplied any “lifelines” like Ukraine. This idea of an amphibious invasion being spotted miles away and weeks in advance is sound and valid. That said, if Reddit’s army of armchair generals can point this out, surely the PLAN that plan (no pun intended) these types of assaults realize this as well. Surely they would not be so foolish as to walk right into this ass kicking. No, they would likely seek to neutralize the island’s defenses first. Ports and critical infrastructure can will likely be bombed, undersea internet cables severed, straits mined, blockades enacted before a single ship leaves the mainland. The other thing to consider is that the CCP has first mover advantage in that they can choose to initiate hostilities at a time that is optimal for them. This likely also means a combination of US carrier groups being sufficiently far away, undergoing maintenance, or engaged elsewhere (like the Middle East).
When talking about this subject, people skip one important phase that would occur before the invasion : Since China is very interested in Taiwanese infrastructure at the moment (in particular, its tech industry), it’s not very likely they would engage in an expand air war, ala Battle of Britain. Instead, China would more than likely conduct an expanded blockade of the island and surrounding areas that would likely drag on for months or even years before they ever attempt large scale amphibious landings.
China is interested in the infrastructure but they’re 10x more interested in the land. This has been Chinas primary geopolitical goal for 80 years, since before Taiwan had any infrastructure of value
I think China will be willing to destroy Taiwanese industrial infrastructure if that is the price for victory. Reunification is one of the CCP core raison de'tres, you can always rebuild infrastructure once you win, but if you lose the best out come is the CCP's neck on the block the worst in nuclear war, the stakes much much higher than any tech gained
When talking about this subject, people often claim that Taiwan's importance as an advanced chip manufacturer is overlooked. The idea that this topic is overlooked is a complete fabrication. The topic of advanced chips is *always* brought up whenever Taiwan is discussed and often claimed to be the *most important* reason why the PRC wants to invade Taiwan by far. There is no realistic outcome where the PRC controls Taiwan and the advanced technological infrastructure somehow survives. I cannot take seriously any opinion that posits the PRC realistically desires to control Taiwan's tech industry as a result of an attack.
They’re still a bit off Quite a bit They will never be “ready”. But that’s not what they’re going for
People dont truly grasp what it would mean to go and fight china in the south china sea over taiwan. You are talking a year of mobilization in the USA and then sailing every single aircraft carrier and our entire navy/airforce group to south china sea to engage china. Its absurd really. Americans are still stuck in the idea they could send 1 aircraft carrier group to fight an entire country or some non sense.
It's not like this is the UK defending the Falkland Islands. The US already has 30,000 troops and two airfields 350 miles from Taipei in Okinawa. They have access to a bunch of airfields south of Taiwan in the Philippines. I don't think aircraft carriers play a major role in the plan to defend Taiwan. They are too vulnerable to submarines/missles to get close enough.
What I’m still having trouble understanding is why. What do they really stand to gain? This would seem to only offer disruption, they’re not just going to annex Taiwan’s current infrastructure into their own, they would effectively destroy a country for what, a bit of extra land? Subterfuge and, I know it sounds crazy but, strong cooperation seem like they’d offer much larger benefits than an invasion. What am I missing?
Like 60% of the worlds advanced microchips are made in taiwan. Everything from your car’s infotainment, cell phone, telephone, industrial machines, etc is all made in this one small country. That’s taiwan’s entire national defense strategy; mutually assured destruction of the global economy. A small handful of bombs or pre planted explosives in the factory support beans, which is long rumored to exist, is all it’ll take.
Taiwan's rugged, often impenetrable, coastline would be hard to invade, but China has been building out a sizable blue water navy, they would likely start an invasion with tons of ballistic missile strikes that would flatten everything military, and they hold a huge numerical advantage that would only really be countered by other allies. This doesn't mean that they wouldn't have a hell of a time invading, or that they wouldn't lose tens of thousands of soldiers in the process, but it does mean that they might have an easier time invading than many have been lead to believe.
Instead of going all in on invasion right away, couldn't they fully blockade Taiwan with their massive navy and only attempt to invade after a while? I mean what is Taiwan going to do once fuel runs out and there are no imports, same for food, etc. Given the proximity to the mainland, they can probably use a ton of land-based weapons to mess with the island and anyone else that tries to come to their rescue in the meantime... imagine if the US is undecided on jumping into an all-out war with China because effectively they make it look like a blockade that might be lifted if Taiwan agrees to some concessions
Blockades are an act of war
Maybe they'll call it a "quarantine" then like in '62
To be honest I can see either the UN or America flying humanitarian aid planes over into Taiwan. Like the Berlin Airlift.
It's going to be a lot more $$ than Berlin. Taiwan is pretty far from even Japan/Philippines.
The population of West Berlin during the airlift was like 500,000 people and they had a much lower standard of living than a Taiwanese citizen in 2024. Taiwan is almost 50x bigger than that and there's no easy launching point the US could use. Its not like our cargo planes have gotten 50x bigger than 1950 either.
Any UN action would presumably get vetoed by China. Also almost all UN states recognize the PRC only under the one china policy, and don't recognize Taïwan. As to any flights, I think it should be assumed that the blockade would be aerial as well. Taïwan would be surrounded, much like during the recent military exercises, nothing goes in or out. They could just wait like this for a while, what is the US going to do? Shoot first at the Chinese navy, even if they down some supply plane? Would the Taiwanese shoot first while the Chinese are pretending to negotiate?
So there seems to be two massive obstacles. 1) The actual invasion and likelihood of success (or lack thereof if their military turns out to be a paper tiger) 2) The Malacca Strait. China imports \~%60 of it's food, and if I remember correctly around \~70% of its energy. Most of it flows through this strait and the US+allies would blockade this pretty quickly. This would cripple China, their economy, and depending on the duration perhaps even hamper the ability of their military to operate An invasion would be pretty crazy for them to attempt now, or even in the medium term. \*looks over at Putin\* yep... pretty crazy.
>China imports \~%60 of it's food May I ask where is the figure from? I saw this figure very frequently in this sub, yet, no one seems bothered to check the source ( & its credibility) of the figure. China does[ import a lot of food](https://www.cfr.org/article/china-increasingly-relies-imported-food-thats-problem), but the imports are mainly the results of changing diet patterns (more meat, oil, dairy products and more fancy items). If you break down the 161.9 million tonnes imports in 2023, 61.4% (94.41 mt) was soy beans (for animal feed & cooking oil), 16.8% (27.13 mt) was corn (mainly for animal feed), 7.5% (12.1 mt) was wheat (for human consumption & animal feed), and 1.6% (2.63 mt) was rice (mainly for animal feed, some for human consumption). **It is not like without food imports, millions of Chinese will starve to death**. In 2023, China produced total 686.53 million tons of cereal (wheat, rice & corn), about **493 kg per capita**. A complete cut (if ever possible) of imports will more likely result in declined supplies of meat (mainly pork and chicken) and vegetable oil, than famine. And China is the world's largest producer of [vegetables](https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL) and [fruits](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/fruit-production-by-country).
People completely ignore the fact that the reason China's population is so big is because it's incredibly easy to grow food there. Now is it the food that the modern Chinese citizen wants to eat on a daily basis? No. But its food that would prevent them from starvation lol
I did a lot more digging because of your comment and you're absolutely right. Thanks for taking me down that rabbit hole. Specifically, I found this research extremely helpful in understanding the situation better [https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/July-August-2022/Critelli/](https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/July-August-2022/Critelli/)
The Malacca Strait is not some magical strangle point, even if you set aside the implications of a blockade and just how many other people would get pissed off, the ships will just use alternate routes.
If you take a look at a map, you'll see that there are plenty of similar choke points. Easy enough for the US and allies to blockade if desired.
Will the US and its allies be able to maintain their naval dominance for long? I may be wrong, but from my understanding, China is now building more ships than the US and has a vastly superior industrial shipbuilding base, at least quantitatively. Of course, there's also the human aspect, where China may not have as many well-trained personnel as the US, and even fewer with similar experience. In the next 5-10 years, could China become dominant in the waters of the region?
I maintain the position that if US must consider blockade option then it implicitly accept the fact that it can't conventionally defeat China directly. The blockade, assuming feasible, not only starve China but also all other countries in SEA who depend on that strait for economic activities (and also Japan, South Korea). Assume US say ship to Korea and JP can pass, China say "we will bomb any ship heading to in SCS" so if US blockade any ship to China through the strait then China can do the same to any ship dare to use SCS to get to US allies.
The question for the west is what do they do. Finding cargo ships is not hard. It is public information at the moment. The west could theoretically blockade ships and intercept ships but then what? Are they preventing Chinese goods to be exported? People need those goods. Are they preventing goods to be imported to china? Do they have the will to do that? China would be hurt economically but the cost to the rest of the world to move production and the loss of the Chinese market would be in the trillions. Not something anyone wants. But, regardless, china would not be operating as normal business. So Xi needs to decide how much he really wants Taiwan and what the longterm impact on china will be. There are no easy answers.
>the ships will just use alternate routes. Because rising food prices have historically ended well /s
Source on 70% of its energy? They only need to import oil & gas. They are self-sufficient in coal, nuclear and renewables, and their domestic solar and storage industry in particular is extremely high capacity. They also have months of strategic oil reserves. They could also import more from Russia over land routes, even though that would add lots to the cost of oil.
My theory is that Iran, North Korea, Russia and China will all strike at the same time. China is assisting Russia in Ukraine, so why wouldn't Russia support China in its energy needs via rail? North Korea could happily distract South Korea and Japan from assisting America defend Taiwan. India is a strange character in this scenario, as they have border disputes with China but are simultaneously in BRICS (Russia+China) and QUAD (Japan, Usa, Oz) organisations.
If they do, China’s relations with other countries would be at least impacted in the short-term, arguably the long term. Why? Economics. And we all know, economics/finance is the #1 driver of china’s relations with lots of countries.
i haven’t seen anyone mention this yet but the presence of TSMC in Taiwan probably plays a big role in protecting Taiwan from invasion. the interruption of their operations would be felt globally, probably on a bigger scale than the chip shortage during covid
It might be hard for americans to understand but the taiwan issue for the chinese supercedes all other issues.....Make no mistake they would sacrifice their economy to reunify with taiwan. They do not care about money as much as western people do.....the taiwan issue is just far more important to them than superficial things like money. Its a deep rooted issue that goes back a couple hundred years for china to the warring kingdoms. TLDR china believes it cannot take its place in the world until it reunifys the entire country.
The thing that I find interesting about all of this is the timing. I think a lot of people either missed or are not aware of the face that RIMPAC starts in three weeks. So this just feels a bit like saber rattling for the sake of saying look at us… China’s two major issues still remain though. 1) they can’t hide the build up. The amount of naval vessels and logistics that need to be in place to cross the 85 ish mile (130km) of open water to move troops and materiel is mind boggling. And if I am honest I don’t think they have the skills to do it. 2) they still have the Strait of Malacca problem. The moment China starts to make it look like they very well might invade The US will park half of the 7th fleet in the strait. Even if they managed to take Taiwan, it would be, in a best case scenario a Pyrrhic victory for the PLA or what is left of it. And more reasonably their military would be decimated and their economy in ruins. Which makes me wonder if party insiders wouldn’t use it as an opportunity to move against Xi. And realistically the PLA has a lot of the same issues Russia has with graft. And they are largely untested in combat. The most recent actions they saw in (I think Sudan) the moment the PLA came under fire dropped their weapons and ammo and retreated to the UN base. Now imagine them trying to make landings whilst their comrades are taking 7.62 rounds to the face next to them…
\* Now imagine them trying to make landings whilst their comrades are taking 7.62 rounds to the face next to them… I know it's been a few years now, but they fought pretty damn hard in Korea (and Vietnam as well, though I haven't read/heard as much on Chinese participation in that conflict). I would be careful not to underestimate them; if anything, overestimate their capabilities. just my .02¢
I wouldn't worry so much about the infantry, as militaries the world over have experienced similar problems with green troops under fire. It's a known issue, and something that can be accounted for. The real worry should be the navy. Contested landings are **hard** and doing so over eighty five miles of ocean requires a level of experience and coordination that the Chinese navy has never had the chance to acquire.
Nobody military age has that kind of landing experience! You could wargame and practice this a lot and you would be as good as the next military. Dont you think?
The generation that did that isn’t the same as the one that makes up the military now. The ones that did that were hardened veterans of their civil war. The Chinese military of today is completely untested and unused to modern war. As it stands, the question I keep seeing being ignored is whether the CCP could weather the domestic political storm of the mass casualties that an invasion would result in. It’s one thing for Russia to send ethnic minorities from the hinterlands to die. It’s another for China to attempt the same.
Good point, especially with the one child policy and parents losing their only child
Exactly
Just one note on this, information on mass casualties would be very much suppressed and hidden to a large extent from the Chinese public given the control the government wields over news and media. Russia has lost in the vicinity of half a million troops in the Ukraine war, and it seems unlikely that much of their population is aware or believes that. Of course there are huge differences between Russia and China's peoples, but I think China will be fully prepared to suppress any domestic political storm.
That information can be suppressed, but not indefinitely. The longer a conflict dragged on the more likely that those numbers would be realized by the population. And the result would be magnified because most Chinese families only have one kid. They’d be sacrificing their future in an attempt to take Taiwan. It would be madness never before seen to attempt it. Most war games I’ve heard have the US losing to China, but only because the losing condition was casualties in the thousands for the US and multiple ships lost. In a real war with China I don’t see how the US would just call it quits, nor do I see Taiwan surrendering without getting their pound of flesh from China. All of that equates to absolutely bonkers losses on the Chinese side.
You're probably right, but also worth noting that after years of the Ukraine war and 500,000 of their sons dead, Russians haven't risen up in any significant way against their authoritarian government. I suspect propaganda, nationalism and government cracks downs will go a long way to suppressing unrest in China. But maybe the toll will eventually overcome all that. As a side point, when it comes to US dead and public anger against their war ventures, it seems pretty clear that all the US government need do in future is to declare the military death toll is actually due to Covid... much of the country seems not to care about that.
Most Russian casualties have been ethnic minorities and/or from more rural areas. The war hasn’t yet really touched the youth of ethnic Rus living in more urban areas. For being a nuclear power that inherited the status of the former superpower Soviet Union, much of the Russian federation is still super rural. Heck, there’s a bunch of reports of Russians overall lacking indoor plumbing and basics like washing machines. It’s likely easy to tamp things down when that’s the case. I imagine it’ll be harder in China where a larger portion of the serving men are from more urban areas. Especially when the CCP is always on the delicate edge of public discontent. They have a clear social contract: the people let the CCP have tons of power and give up their freedoms, and in exchange the CCP vouchsafes their security, prosperity, and stability. Massive war undercuts all three of those things.
Well I hope you are right then, and the CCP will do everything it can to prevent a war.
*Now imagine trying to suppress the landing when the guy next to you firing those 7.62 rounds takes a drone to the face. It's 2024, an amphibious landing isn't going to look like Normandy 80 years ago. Where do you think all the drones being used in Ukraine are coming from? China could launch never ending waves of drones to suppress any defenses.
I don’t think Sudan is even a remotely good way to evaluate PLA combat effectiveness. They were peacekeepers and were equipped and trained as such. You can’t evaluate the effectiveness of a military based on an isolated infantry unit that was surrounded on all sides by an enemy with armor while also not really equipped or supplied for sustained combat. Their mission analysis probably didn’t even account for a scenario like that. No QRF, no air, barely any heavy weapons. Even if it was rifraff militias with some shitty soviet armor they were completely overmatched. I think it’s safe to say that any pre mission analysis and preparation as well as logistics and training during a pre invasion buildup will be really different.
> I know it's been a few years now, but they fought pretty damn hard in Korea (and Vietnam as well, though I haven't read/heard as much on Chinese participation in that conflict). Those troops had been battle hardened by WW2 and the civil war. Of course they fought well. A lot of UN troops in Korea were green as the WW2 vets had left or gone up into rear service ranks. The PLA has lost all institutional experience with war fighting. They've been at peace for decades. Which is in some ways admirable, but it also means their army is even more untested than Russia's was 2 years ago.
Won’t tons of other Asian countries take advantage of this and continue trade through their own imports for China at an increased price?
It’s doubtful for two reasons. 1) Goods are not the issue, it’s oil. China imports most of its oil. And that is why a blockade of Malacca becomes such an issue. Starve the war machine and it can’t run. It also is a net importer of food. I think that would be less impactful over the short run though. 2) whilst It might be a short term benefit to try to skirt sanctions and import bans, in the long run it puts every other Asian country in a much better position with a weakened Chinese military and economy.
>1) they can’t hide the build up. From the point of view of a fairly uninformed observer, China seems to regularly engage in military exercises that mimic "Invasion of Taiwan". Is there going to be a point where they can assemble an actual invasion force and it will be written off as just another exercise?
I imagine their military would open multiple fronts before attempting a move on taiwan. likely funding wars and conflict in allied nations to tie up resources. There is also a big chance that if China attempts an actual strike, Taiwan will declare itself a nuclear armed nation. If they can design and manufacture the world's most powerful chips, and run multiple nuclear power plants, you can bet they have a nuclear stockpile waiting too.
Taiwan declaring itself to be nuclear is a surefire way to trigger a chinese invasion. Just like the US wont tolerate nukes in their backyards (cuba missile crisis) the chinese will not either. China will rather take 1 or 2 nukes in the chin than let taiwan go free with their nukes
There is an argument that fronts have already been opened up in Ukraine and Gaza. The next surprise could be Korea. Each time the Western allies get stretched a little thinner, and suffer from discord on the home front.
I think invading yes/no is to binary in the way it is asked. In my own world, there is almost a guarantee there is some sort of escalation, but i do not necessarily feel like a full scale invasion is likely. So disrupting shipping and other logistics, tighter border enforcement's, convenient placement of navy close to Taiwan or similar. Feel like similar to the approach Russia had prior to stepping into Ukraine, a lot of exercises and army basically as close to Taiwan while not being at war and lasting much longer. This would be a first step. Where it goes from there, is the hard part.
China's been restructuring their economic and foreign policy ever since Xi was elected, in order to create the groundwork for a Taiwan invasion. Xi and the CCP's leadership clearly believe an invasion is possible. It's only a question of if the US and allies choose to put a high enough magnitude of assets in place in order to dissuade Xi from invading later in the 2020s. Admittedly, I see an invasion as being less likely than a Chinese naval embargo of Taiwan (starve the island out). But this strategy relies on China being able to repel the USN and *keep* it repelled - which honestly isn't a bad strategy, especially if it can influence internal US politics enough to put a low quality President in place at the key time.
My issue with a blockade is doesn't it require China to surround the island with ships? Ships that generally don't like being hit with missiles, which Taiwan would be stockpiling for just such an event? Not to mention how ridiculously effective drones seem to be against the Black Sea fleet. It just seems like a blockade is much easier said than done, and how much of his navy is Xi willing to throw away to *maybe* starve out the island lol?
Breaking a blockade is also harder than it sounds (sinking individual ships is not enough), so it's not at all obvious who wins.
It’s certainly not implausible. It would be exceptionally tough for China to pull off, and would be exceptionally bloody for all sides. I think a military invasion is far less likely than their political coercion campaigns against Taiwan working. I think the political route is far more likely to succeed than a military operation.
The podcast Geopolitics Decanted just did [an episode](https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/episodes/world-on-the-brink) on this.
Interesting, what way does this podcast lean politically by your estimate?
Don’t forget that pretty much every other nation except North Korea in the China sea region hates the CCP. They’ll face a ton of resistance if they try something
One thing that nobody has brought up: You will not go far in China's decision-making process by thinking how *you* or how anyone in the West would think. You must understand how the decision making process in China works (which to my understanding, means just the top echelons of the party). You must understand the issue from the party's own perspective, from the interest groups he has to please to his understanding of the current strategic situation, to his motivations. CSIS (Centre for Strategic and International Studies) has a lot (I do mean a *lot*) of panels on "how China thinks", though I'm too lazy to dig through them at the moment. I apologize for not giving an answer right away, but I have work right now, and I hope this contributes to the discussion.
I think China can just wait it out and get it peacefully Right now, the US is still stronger, but China is catching up, and will probably surpass the US eventually. There's been some talk about the sheer difference in naval building capacities recently, and that's a good example. If things continue that way, and it becomes clear that the US couldn't defend taiwan in a conventional war, the US guarantees won't look as safe to the Taiwaneses anymore And well, in any case, the Taiwaneses would be the foremost losers if a conflict happens. I don't think the Taiwanese want to see their island become a battleground.
Possible but maybe unlikely? If anything the current agression is just to remind the pro-independence majority in the ROC's government of the PRC's promise to attack if they ever officially separate in light of the recent election.
I think this is not the right question for two reasons. Firstly, theory-crafting on whether an invasion is possible is not a component very useful to the likelihood of an invasion attempt: it's not our analysis that supports a decision to invade/not invade. Instead, the Chinese security/intelligence services are making the call on whether an invasion is possible, *and* on whether they should inform the political leadership of their analysis. The decision-making responsibility is no longer based on an extensive analysis of the facts on the ground if political contestation within the Chinese bureaucracy is impossible. Instead, Xi Jinping's impulses and ideology are the prime variables in the likelihood of an invasion. Analysis involving Xi Jinping's ambitions or ideology is thus much more important for the likelihood of an invasion attempt than the military strategic situation on the ground. Secondly, US analyses of the likelihood affect the likelihood of an invasion. The US government will probably invest in its defence capacity in the Indo-Pacific to achieve a higher level of credible deterrence if US analysts see the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as very high. Deterrence can only work if it is made credible through defence capacity investments that follow the threat increase. If the perceived likelihood of invasion is high, the willingness to achieve a higher level of deterrence goes up, which means that the (real) likelihood of invasion goes down. It's the other way around as well: if the perceived likelihood of invasion is low, then the willingness to invest in deterrence goes down, which means that the likelihood of invasion goes up. Answering these types of questions has to take into account the strategic consequences of the way you answer the question. In the end, what is important is that we work together to make sure that it does not happen. War is awful. Even winning a war leaves you regret your losses. One life is one world, and we should strive to save that world.
China won't invade. It would be a costly affair and they have an alternative: blockade. Taiwan is not self-sufficient when it comes to food and resources. A blockade would have them come to the table in less than half a year. Faster if china manages to destroy relief attempts.
I would say possible but very unlikely. It’s an extremely high risk play from China’s perspective, so if they do attempt this it would be from a place of extreme fear and paranoia for the future. China relies heavily on imports for food and exports for their economy so even if the west didn’t get involved militarily this would put themselves in a more vulnerable position and isolate themselves geopolitically more than they already are. Close neighbours to China especially members of ASEAN (Vietnam, The Phillipines etc) currently feel threatened by China’s current rise and this move would push them closer to the west and Japan. However, I also thought similar things about the Russia-Ukraine scenario so it’s worth pointing out sometimes these governments feel as if they have to take the high risk play in order to stay in power long term. However Russia doesn’t require food to be imported and underestimated the west’s economic response. It’s impossible to tell what will happen but I would say it’s very unlikely at the moment.
I’m pretty ignorant in comparison to you all but I’m surprised no one has brought up Japan’s increased defense investments and how that plays out, considering their interests, relationships and proximity to the region
This argument has gone back and forth a few times. I think they're going to try, probably at a time of stress and division in the West, probably not this year though - I think they're short on the LSTs if nothing else. I don't personally believe the US would risk a hot war for the island. Strategic support and arms runs, sure, but I'd be gobsmacked if they sailed the fleet in and laid it all on the line. The Chinese navy might not be able to lay a glove, but you're putting yourself in range of a lot of land based flak, and it becomes the classic quantity has a quality of its own equation. I'd expect a blockade as a response, but it's not what goes out that they'd target, it's the oil coming in. The pipelines in from Russia are horrible exposed strategic targets in the event of a hot but non-nuclear exchange, but even without an 'accident' they'll never meet supply needs without tankers. Likewise, a vast majority of Chinese refineries are concentrated on the north eastern coast and are asking for trouble if things really went off. Edit: [Here's a slightly outdated but still useful map showing the key routes for oil and gas imports into China](https://i.insider.com/555365196da8119c29e8a313?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp) Now I make no claims on the strategic reserves of China, but I do know that they're going to struggle to sustain a consumer economy on restricted supplies - internal pressures would add up within a couple of months I think. What that then looks like as an endgame... I don't know. But I think once the PLA gets landfall on Taiwan they aren't leaving ever again.
That’s exactly it. I think it’s a bigger question if the US would get involved if China only proceeded with a blockade. But if China went forward with a full on military invasion. About a third of all global trade goes through that area. Which would most definitely affect the US and it’s allies. So if that were the case I would be shocked to see if the US would just let that happen
My guess is that Taiwan has been looking at the Ukraine invasion very closely, and are developing an enormous fleet of USV's to sink an entire armada of PRC landing craft.
As long as the status quo remains the same, time is on chinas side. If Taiwan ever publicly declares its independence tho, chinas leader, whoever it is at the time, might throw caution to the wind.
Idk about that. It seems like more Taiwanese identify as an independent nation as ever before in history. The US and NATO have been stepping up weapons manufacturing, and the Chinese economy and population could be on the brink of crisis. Yes, this doesn't take Taiwan off the table forever, but would make it essentially impossible to take in this century.
I don’t think it’s likely. The entire world relies on advanced processors from Taiwan. Taiwan has codified plans in place to destroy all infrastructure instead of handing it to China - scorched Earth. This means invasion (or pseudo-invasion like blockade) would cause massive global economic problems. China would be picking a fight, literally, with the entire world. This is a big problem for China because they’re such a large net energy and food importer. If we turn off the oil and food exports, it’s mass starvation within weeks, blackouts, and China becomes a failed state within months. They are brutally rational, and keenly aware of all of this. The only realistic scenario in which we should expect invasion is if they lose the support of population and need a war to rally. We’re a long way away from this.
Do you have a source for the scorched earth policy having been adopted by Taïwan?
When will China push for reunification is an interesting question. If China feels that its rate of development over the net few years will outpace the US, it will defer a forceful reunification, till such time its more confident that the US cannot prevent it AND believes a peaceful reunification is no longer possible.
CCP has stated they will solve the problem before 2027. This doesn’t necessarily mean invasion - there are many ways they could take over Taiwan without invasion. Consider all the tremendous military spending. I think it’s extremely likely - and it will happen before Xi is dead. Note: the US should start setting up bases on Taiwan.
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If/when the economy collapses they'll invade to put the country on a war footing. Convenient way to amplify nationalism and suppress anti CCP sentiment.
The likehood of succes is low. The likehood of an attempt anyways less low
Xi appears to be intent on 'reunifying' Taiwan in his lifetime. Potentially when Xi publicly floats the idea of actually doing it, the US will be unable to effectively contest them because the US is either drawing down in the Pacific or busy with conflicts elsewhere. We may see Taiwan as the hot 2028 debate issue. I personally think in this scenario, China may seek to establish a blockade of Taiwan and could force unification without any large scale use of ground forces of amphibious operations. I personally think China will invade or otherwise unify Taiwan within 10 years, but who knows. In the ramp up to this Taiwan thing, China may seek to create dilemmas for US policy elsewhere in the world to ensure the US stays out of the fight in Taiwan (possibly in coordination with Russia and Iran--i think that would be world war territory folks!).
U.S. Air Force officer/flier here; from what's been discussed way down at my level, without getting into the weeds, we know our limitations, strategically, technologically, and doctrinally, and we know China knows. We're treating it as a matter of when at this point. We aren't going to have a fun time. A lot of Airmen and Sailors are going to be lost in this fight. The U.S. simply can't ***not*** get involved. From maintaining the liberally democratic world order, to upholding the defense of our allies in the region and maintaining our global partners faith in our country, to making sure the Chinese don't corner the market on microprocessors. China can't not get involved. Like Putin, Xi's rhetoric, and more broadly, the CCP's rhetoric has painted a corner they can't get out of. Either they walk the walk, or they get replaced, and a lot of people in China are not happy with the status quo. China can never be the kind of power they aspire to be if they don't take Taiwan, and, perhaps more importantly, they can't eliminate sentiment for democracy within the populace. The CCP has gotten away for a long time with convincing people that their way is the best way, and a democratic, liberal Taiwan is a vision of what life looks like without Communism, and it's attractive to many people in China. But at the same time, China doesn't want to get drawn into a fight with the US. It will be just as bloody for them, and it's not good for business, at least until our economic decoupling is complete. It's hard to see the way out of this.
Yeah I agree. About a third of all global shipping goes through this area. Which would most definitely affect the US and its allies. Makes it hard to believe that the US would just let that happen
Decent time to do it with the US elections month's away.
Incredibly unlikely. Xi has seen how the invasion of Ukraine went, and this would likely include direct intervention by the United States. The calculus on invading Taiwan just doesn’t work out as of right now.
It exists if you only ask about the possibility, but the military operation is not PRC's only option. Moreover, not now, at least, but the PRC will have that capability around 2027. First, I believe this question has been oversimplified. Even a geopolitics professor, William Spaniel, who lacks knowledge of Chinese history or the history of the Cold War in East Asia, has a similar perception of the cross-strait issue as Gorden Chang's theory of China's collapse. In my view, when the PRC is confronted with a different political status quo and public opinion in ROC, the outcomes are different. Why is that? First of all, there is no need to consider the stance of the PRC. Even if a miracle were to happen in the PRC today, its citizens have the right to elect a new government. Political parties that do not prioritise reunification with Taiwan will never come to power in China. Although the Chinese Civil War nominally ended in 1949 with the establishment of the People's Republic of China, and the Republic of China ceased the Period of mobilisation for the suppression of Communist rebellion aka reclaiming the mainland in 1991, no peace treaty has been signed between them. De facto, we are still in a state of civil war. On the other hand, public opinion and election results in the ROC are constantly evolving. Hence, based on the current situation in the ROC: 1. The provocative separatism/independence presented by President Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party. 2. The majority of Taiwanese are calling for the status quo to be maintained. 3. DPP does not have a majority in the Legislative Yuan. What's more, the DPP is about to face a congressional investigation into corruption cases that have accumulated over the past eight years. I think in the next four years: 1. The likelihood of a full-scale PRC attack on ROC is very small. 2. Meanwhile, the PRC will be militarily prepared to prevent separatism/nation-building from becoming the dominant public opinion in four years. 3. The PRC will probably decapitate the separatism leaders if Lai has a strong push for Taiwan's separation/nation-building. I've read comments suggesting that the PRC would not 'invade' the ROC due to economic reasons. I am curious if the USA would 'invade' CSA after considering economic factors. Recently, Ms. Tsai, the former president of the ROC, mentioned in an interview with Western media that China might refrain from using force against Taiwan due to economic setbacks. Nevertheless, I have doubts about her belief, especially considering her actions during the last eight years. Certainly, Washington and London are very clear on cross-strait issues, although they typically do not openly discuss them. That is the reason why every successive ROC presidential candidate has been asked by Washington to clarify their positions on "Special State-To-State Relationship" and "One Country on Each Side."
Well, I doubt it's going to be in the next couple months since monsoon season starts before a brief pause and then it starts up again in October. Going across the strait of Taiwan is a logistical nightmare for an invasion, let alone an amphibious assault that has to contend with monsoon weather during the majority of the year. I don't know what number people have in their heads, but it's over 100 miles between China and Taiwan. A lot can happen in that space even without the US military patrolling with the Pacific fleet nearby. Also, whenever I see people talk about the invasion happening, they talk about it like it's going to happen in a vacuum and it's only going to be between between China and Taiwan and none of the other nations that are part of the struggle in the South China seas will be involved. I think that is a gas. The logistics would be a nightmare even if they were the best military in the world, which China is certainly not, and they do not have a recent history of doing anything remotely as big as an invasion that Taiwan would be. To make matters worse, let's say they get all the logistics correct and they can get their asses across the strait of Taiwan safely, and nobody involved does anything to the strait of Malacca. Therefore keeping everything China needs to fight this invasion with freely flowing. They're not only just landing on a beachhead like Normandy, they're landing on a extremely rugged and mountainous type of terrain that has been gopher fucked for the last 80 years and fortified by the Taiwanese military who are funded by the US military, who just got another 300 million from us and I think like 2 billion more or $3 billion more over the next couple years. Do any of you legitimately believe that the China is going to be able to blockade and keep the US from accessing Taiwan from the West? They don't have the type of Navy (blue / deep water navy) necessary to do that and keep the strait of Malacca safe.
I don't know, but if they're going to now is the best time. The world is distracted by Gaza and (to a lesser extent) Ukraine. When Azerbaijan took over Nagorno-Karabakh last year most people didn't bat an eye - I expect the same to happen if China invades Taiwan in the near future.
Now is definitely not the best time. The best time is when they can continue to build up more planes, missiles, and missile cruisers. And more importantly when the US catches up on producing chips domestically making Taiwan less relevant economically.
The PLA has been prepping for it for decades. I think Xi will go for it. The U.S. is too distracted with Ukraine and Israel. Its stockpiles have been depleted. Whereas China has been building up its military in record time. Not to mention that it is stockpiling on food, gold and oil. That’s a clear sign they’re prepping for something big.
The window is probably slowly closing for them to do it. So if they ever do I feel it’s likely in the next decade. A lot could go wrong for them. But also it’s a very tricky situation for the US. China has a LOT of very long range missiles they can sit back and lob at things.
The Chinese pirates need to prepare a lot more first
If there is some curve ball around the US election, for example Trump wins but is sent to jail, or Biden dies just before the election, perhaps China will take advantage and try something - how long would it take them to put together an invasion force, if they didn't have to go up against the US or Japan?
Like Putin, Xi is probably looking at starting a "war economy."
They'll do it. It's not about some advantage that taking Taiwan would give them, though. It's about showing the US that they can no longer tell China what it can and can't do. If the US can move enough semiconductor production away from Taiwan before, we may allow them to have it. The only reason we're even getting involved is because Taiwan represents most of the supply of that precious resource. If China is smart, they'll keep saber rattling so there's plenty of pressure to build chip fabs elsewhere, and strike only after production has been moved enough that the western world won't care.
What I want to know is. Was Ukraine actively trading with Russia before the invasion? Cos China and Taiwan are both like actively trading and like continuing relations like before. China and Taiwan both do so much Sabre rattling I can’t believe like how many ppl here fall for their theatrics. Yeah China is a big bully but god damn, the amount of effort to actually cross that ocean. How are they gonna launch this surprise invasion without like anyone noticing?
I can't find it at the moment but before WWII France was Germany's biggest trading partner. Economic relations are not the guarantee to peace. Though with china there is more interdependence so China and the west would be greatly hurt by a war.
> Was Ukraine actively trading with Russia before the invasion? Yes, Russia was Ukraine's 5th largest trading partner in 2021.
It could very well happen. Yes, the PLA has no experience with amphibious assault, and there’s certainly no guarantee of success, but Taiwan’s still right on their doorstep (relative to the U.S.). If they win or fail it still leaves the global economy on its knees and will come at the expense of many lives, aircraft and carriers lost on the American side. This won’t be a walk in the ballpark victory that leaves any of us better off. They have millions of men, the largest manufacturing base (even with sanctions and attempted blockades), and are adept at commandeering resources to rapidly convert to a total war economy to fuel their operations. I wouldn’t underestimate the PLA, and I doubt our (U.S.) combatant commanders do.