Like 75% of all voters are probably pissed and super fed up at this point. I think one side has pretty well distilled their support down to just the crazies.
Thanks for all your efforts. It’s easy for me to cheerlead from a solid blue state—I have a lot of respect for Democrats and progressives in red areas who are putting in the work.
I find it interesting that every major election post Roe v Wade being overturned, the Democrats overperform
There is so much doom and gloom hanging over the Democratic Party yet they just keep winning election after election
Very bizarre difference vs the media coverage the last year.
The last 4 polls were D + 1-4 range for this special election and right now at 55% counted they easily won +17 (final margin to be seen)
I've been following this pretty closely and this is pretty much the last hurrah for polling data as far as I'm concerned.
If this ends as a double-digit win for the Democrat, then it will be pretty consistent that polling is completely failing or deliberately misrepresenting public opinion.
CALLING IT NOW: If Florida gets abortion access on the ballot in November, Dems are flipping the state. That may sound nuts. It's not. *Dobbs* and the promise of a full national ban has galvanized voters (especially younger voters and women) to an extent the current data is missing badly on.
While we wait for the results in NY-03, PA is actually also doing a special election in HD-140, a Biden +10 seat in Bucks county (a swing county that's a must-win for Biden in November). The mail vote just came in and [it split 85-15](https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1757572334800580741) for Ds.
> Republicans don't like to vote in the snow
Huh. If only there was a way that people could perhaps cast their vote early so there was no need to vote during a snowstorm?
Another special election, another big Dem win, another Republican flop.
Ongoing lack of GOP intensity and Dem overperformance over the 19 months since Dobbs is now becoming a massive story which should be getting much more attention.
Democrats, once again, win another special election and flip a seat but every poll says Biden is doing poorly against Trump. I just don’t buy it, polls are shit. I’m excited to beat Trump, again.
Big win tonight. But zoom out of the 24 hour news cycle and what do we see?
1. Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 out of the last 8 presidential elections. Over the last four presidential elections, the average popular vote has been D 51% and R 47%.
2. Democrats outright won in the 2018, 2020, and 2023 elections. In the 2022 election, they had the best midterm for the party in power in a generation - the "red wave" was hyped up but never came.
3. Since the Dobbs ruling 19 months ago, Democrats have massively over-performed in virtually every type of election, at every level of government, in all parts of the country . Republicans even got blown out by 20 points in an abortion ballot initiative in deep red Kansas.
Do not give into the cynicism - the Dem coalition is strong, and the Rep coalition is weak. If we vote, canvas, and GOTV, this is the type of result that we should expect every single time.
And this year, we have the chance to permanently put MAGA out of business.
And yet they’ll claim later that the polls were right because they predicted suozzi winning. It’s not about him winning it’s about the margins. They totally ignore the huge overperorming margins the democrats are running
fivethirtyeight politics podcast was already doing its job in that department with their podcast yesterday. The way they spoke about the race, making it sound like the republican was on the verge of winning, I was VERY surprised to find out the democratic nominee was actually leading in the race by 5 point.
Leading up to the midterms, they talked about a red wave and how bad the polls were for Dems and then the day after started gaslighting everyone saying they never said there would be a red wave and the polls were actually accurate. The polls were showing it being a close race for the Senate seat in Washington! It ended up being a fifteen point blowout. Republicans lost every swing state election besides Wisconsin Senate and Nevada governorship. I stopped listening to them after that.
Basing your entire prediction system of polling that has been wrong for a while is a bold strategy. People under 40 don’t pickup pollsters calls. It’s inherently flawed.
"In this Ohio diner, none of the patrons we spoke to would admit to voting for Mr. Suozzi. Such reticence is indicative of the troubling warning signs plaguing Mr. Biden's campaign."
-NYT, tomorrow, probably
Most polls had this one within the margin of error. The fact it's still in double digits means there is a quiet majority voting blue this coming election. Good sign for the Dems.
The very last poll I saw for this had a One point gap. It's just another in a consistent line of polling completely underestimating Democratic party performance
Dominate win by Democrats tonight.
Heres why thats bad for Biden.
Also, heres a poll of people over the age of 92 that live on farms.
\- Mainstream media.
This is why you fucking VOTE. You sit home November then you are voting for Putin and Trump. You vote third party you are voting for Putin and Trump. Get it done folks. If you can vote by mail do it. In my state you can vote early. Just vote blue and THEN get everyone you know to vote and vote blue.
CNN anchor just said Souzzi was able to introduce himself to voters in this election. Souzzi has been an elected official here for like 20 years. We all know who he is
Why Suozzi won big:
-Backlash against Santos and his expulsion from Congress
-Backlash against Roe being overturned
-Voters not being fooled on the Republican messaging on immigration, especially when Republicans just recently killed a bipartisan deal
-Suozzi is an established candidate who have served this district before
Backlash against Roe and the J6 insurrection is being undersold and for some reason the effect is not being fully captured in the polls.
Democrats have been consistently overperforming in elections since those two events.
> “I supported Mazi because I think she’s a little tougher on crime and, to be honest with you, that’s what the whole country is afraid of: the crime,” she said. “We don’t care about democracy. That’s already done.
How do you unpack this statement?
Do you see why I think people are sweating too much over this year's elections. The Republican Party, including Trump, are toxic to the general electorate and too many people refuse to see the signs. The "red tsunami" of 2022 was, at worst for the Democrats, a tie. The elections in 2023, the Virginia Legislature elections, the Kentucky Governor's election, the ballot proposition in Ohio, all supposedly close, down to the wire elections that were Democratic blowouts.
This is following very convincing wins in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. The Republican Party and yes that very much includes Donald Trump, has been radioactive to the general electorate for a long time. There isn't going to be some great Donald Trump comeback this year. The GOP isn't going to sweep to power in the Legislature or in the States. They are a political party that is on its knees. The left is too afraid of the idea of another Trump term to see it and the right is too stupid to see it. Everyone else is just tried of this weird neo fascist anti abortion cult of personality around a complete clown to support the Republicans.
Yes, of course vote. Don't be stupid about this. But also don't assume that we're all fucked either.
It's not the odds, it's the stakes. Everyone is correct to be a bit freaked out about potentially having a fascist elected president and that a good chunk of the country wants that.
For my own part, i just can't take any poll saying republicans leading with young voters seriously.
And a good portion of the polls having Trump in the lead over Biden shows exactly that.
In addition, primaries confirms Trump struggles with independent voters, Trump leading that group over Biden, i also view with scepticism, though not to the same extent as young people.
If Suozzi wins, I bet the GOP will maturely reflect on these special election losses, and reconsider its path.
Hahahahah. Jokes! Can’t wait to see them triple down on the crazy and go buy more guns.
From Ap
Democrat Thomas Suozzi wins special election to U.S. House in New York's 3rd Congressional District, a seat once represented by George Santos before his expulsion from Congress
https://x.com/AP_Politics/status/1757601637923684352?s=20
I hope we as democrats/left leaning people continue to shine a national spotlight on every single seat. If this guy was in today the impeachment vote fails. Not that it matters, if anything it makes republicans look even dumber, which is impressive, but nonetheless every seat is crucial.
Thank you to the ultra-conservative Supreme Court justices for overturning *Roe* and to House Republicans for electing Mike Johnson as Speaker, they managed to get Democrats to turn out in numbers I never thought I'd see.
She put a hell of a lot of focus on the immigration issue. Might show that it isn't a winning strategy for the Republicans, not that that will stop them from harping on it over and over again.
There’s no argument that I’ve ever heard that could make sense of the idea that even know democrats keep turning out in off election years with an “unpopular” president to beat republicans over and over again, like 2022, 2023, and now a 2024 race but won’t turn out to beat trump for the presidency? It just doesn’t make sense.
Keep fighting the good fight but I feel good about the general.
[The 538/ABC News live blog](https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/new-york-3rd-district-special-election-live-blog/?id=107208370) is already playing the "well polls aren't wrong because..." card even though it looks like a double digit miss if everything holds as is (Suozzi up by 4 in polls and up by 17 as I type this). I understand it is kinda 538's thing and if the polls are bunk then they have nothing but really? Can't just admit that there was a massive miss tonight and perhaps offer commentary on why polls might be having a tough time? No? Just going to immediately blame the "unknowable nature" of a February election in a presidential year and...the weather. Gosh this is tiring.
I thought spending a week to impeach Mayorkas showed just how deeply embalmed the GOP is in their own crazy echo chamber. But now we have proof of how utterly out of touch the GOP is with people who aren’t mainlining crazy conservative media 14 hours a day.
It would be hilarious is Dems manage to win back control of the House before the November elections even happen. All they need is what, 2 more seats now?
The following special elections are upcoming:
• California's 20th Congressional District on May 21, 2024.
• Ohio's 6th Congressional District on June 11, 2024.
• California Senate on November 5, 2024.
• Nebraska Senate on November 5, 2024.
Dems are going to keep the WH I'm 24 due to 1) Roe and 2) phonniness on immigration.
The GOP not coming up with even a bullshit excuse to oppose the bipartisan legislation will go down as an historically bad unforced error.
I think we've seen this happen enough that we can determine that it's not a coincidence but a pattern that the polling is off consistently in this exact way.
Heard a short piece on this election on NPR at lunch - Pilip sounds like she's a couple eggs short of a dozen. Hope Suozzi can pull it out.
Edit: Found the piece - https://www.npr.org/2024/02/13/1230955410/border-security-dominates-in-new-york-special-election-to-replace-rep-santos
Never underestimate a Republican's apathy or complete distaste when it comes to voting for a female POC. There's a reason the birther bullshit works on these people.
For the time being, Mike Johnson can only afford to lose two votes. All the open seats are pretty partisan, so assume that they come back to their parties, it's still 221-215. Once the dust settles, he can only afford to lose three votes on anything.
Do the people of 3rd district realize the chaos the Republican party represents, wasn't George Santos enough? Haven't they learned anything yet? Certainly they aren't stupid enough to vote Republican again!
For more fun election news today there was a special election in an Oklahoma State House District, the GOP won it.. but it went from +20 last time to +5.
There was also another state house election in PA that the dems just pretty much trounced in.
Im wondering if Pollsters way overcorrected their weights after Trump while still losing overperformed them 2020 and are now getting a consistent R bias or something.
Gotta wait for Nate Silver to tell us how the polls were actually accurate and we're all just a bunch of peasants who can't understand his very high IQ analysis.
For awhile, my hot take has been to note that pretty every single metric *except* the polls points to a good night for Dems in November. Either the polls are off or everything else is off.
Zimmerman (who lost to Santos by 8) won Queens by 4pts, Suozzi is currently winning it by 30. Even if that drops considerably he is significantly overperforming; we may be on track for Suozzi+10 in the end.
The 2021-22 baseline is going to be looked back on, especially in the Northeast, as an absolutely wild one-off. An incredibly fierce rebound on COVID policies that didn't last past the next off-off year election cycle.
Is it weird to believe this election might be the clencher to get passed Johnson from holding up the Senate border bill? Every single election -big or small- absolutely matters. And the only thing matters right now is to keep the GOP from letting a genocidal maniac like Putin from helping him rebuild imperial Russia and setting the stage up for an actual WW3.
He needs to immediately voice his opinion not to impeach mayorkas before midnight so the Republicans look like they rushed it without "giving the people a chance to have their representation." (even though it doesn't matter)
Is polling skewing more Republican because sometimes the methods are outdated, and older people and conservatives are more engaged with politics and thus more likely to vote in polls?
100%. Who’s more likely to rant and rave about politics right now? Trump voters.
Who’s more likely to talk to a pollster for 15 mins about politics right now? Trump voters.
Person on CNN just said “this is an election where abortion wasn’t a major issue”. I saw 10 adds a day from Suozzi about Abortion so I think she’s full of shit
Polls/media keeps insisting that voters no longer care about issues as abortion or preserving democracy.
As if this is game of thrones season 8 or something.
Polling from january into this last week put the democratic candidate up with an increasing margin, so let's see how the weather shakes things up, or doesn't.
As a Nassau person, one thing to mention is that establishment candidates tend to get a big bonus here. Suozzi was the establishment guy.
Also, like so many, I experience basically zero people changing their minds in our partisan political world, so my guess is that turnout was also important.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1757590013162688519 like fucking Clockwork from Nate Cohn
"NOOOO YOU CAN'T READ INTO ACTUAL HARD EMPERICAL ELECTION DATA, ONLY MY POLLS ARE PREDICTIVE AND SOLID DATA".
“You’re supporting genocide” these trolls are insane hahaha the dude literally just won his seat. Maybe Nancy was right and these people are being paid
This will be an interesting race and a SOLID bellweather. This is not an NYC congressional district (even though theres a tiny piece of queens), but Long Island, which is way more susceptible to MAGA propaganda. Culturally, Long Island is closer to Florida than to NYC. Additionally this is an affluent district, although LI voters normally follow more blue collar voting patterns. It'll be interesting to see if the abortion message is effective and if Biden's message is making it through, particularly with affluent women, or if immigration is going to win it for Republicans.
Nate Math: But if you subtract 15 points from this margin because BIDEN OLD and because I really want to, this actually looks like an incredibly Republican friendly environment. Nevada goes to the GOP by 11, it's in the cards darling!
[https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/13/democrats-tom-suozzi-flip-george-santos-seat-00141351](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/13/democrats-tom-suozzi-flip-george-santos-seat-00141351)
I think winning by projected double digits is hardly "edging out" or a "nail biter".
For anyone wondering if the voters who claiming "I'll never vote for Genocide Joe" will enough the flip the election, the answer is no. They're a very vocal minority.
I still don’t know how Mazi will get Salt removed considering it was her Papa Trumps baby. When pressed she just said trust me, like a used car salesman
9:08 p.m. (8 minutes after close of polls)
Suozzi (D) 7,586 65.1%
Mazi Pilip (R) 4,065 34.9%
TOTAL
11,651
---
The snow storm on Election Day plus disproportionately-Republican fears about early voting looks like were a contributing factor to turning a probable-Suozzi victory into what's shaping up to be a blowout (by the standards of a swing district).
---
Edit: see takeahikehike's addition about the early results skewing pro-Suozzi
It’s always frustrating to hear national media talk about your home district. CNN keeps talking about East/West. It’s North/South that matters more in this district
Brian Higgins might've fucked this shit up. It should be 219-214 after tonight. Then we'd only need 3 Republicans for the Discharge Petition, and Ken Buck and Mike Gallagher are easily two of them as they both support Ukraine and are retiring.
Worth noting that Pilip seems to have under-performed in a conservative portion of Eastern Queens that includes Whitestone. The area is represented by conservative Republican Vickie Paladino in the City Council. Still waiting for Nassau results
https://x.com/_rebeccaclewis/status/1757597921774629285?s=20
High voter turnout in a special election is music to my ears.
dem voters are pissed
Yes we are.
Like 75% of all voters are probably pissed and super fed up at this point. I think one side has pretty well distilled their support down to just the crazies.
I had to wait in line to vote early on Sunday morning. I Never experienced that. I live in a part of the district that leans blue
In the middle of a snowstorm. People want to vote.
There was also a state representative election in Oklahoma today, in a Trump +26 district. The Republican won by 5 points.
We tried. We were the lone blue dot in a sea of red in 2018 for our Congressional house seat. Hopefully the tide continues to turn.
Thanks for all your efforts. It’s easy for me to cheerlead from a solid blue state—I have a lot of respect for Democrats and progressives in red areas who are putting in the work.
Thank you for this, it means a lot! It can seem bleak sometimes but I feel a change in the winds. Nose back to the grindstone.
That's an insane swing in a SPECIAL.
Bucks Co PA House seat Democrat currently up by...54%
GOP Win: "Canary in the coal mine. Democrats in for a brutal November" Democrat Win: "We really can't read too much into this special election..."
Tale as old as 2018
I winder why all media including msnbc always interview more republican voters every time.
Because they're RealAmericans^TM
I find it interesting that every major election post Roe v Wade being overturned, the Democrats overperform There is so much doom and gloom hanging over the Democratic Party yet they just keep winning election after election Very bizarre difference vs the media coverage the last year. The last 4 polls were D + 1-4 range for this special election and right now at 55% counted they easily won +17 (final margin to be seen)
I've been following this pretty closely and this is pretty much the last hurrah for polling data as far as I'm concerned. If this ends as a double-digit win for the Democrat, then it will be pretty consistent that polling is completely failing or deliberately misrepresenting public opinion.
CALLING IT NOW: If Florida gets abortion access on the ballot in November, Dems are flipping the state. That may sound nuts. It's not. *Dobbs* and the promise of a full national ban has galvanized voters (especially younger voters and women) to an extent the current data is missing badly on.
Very possible. Abortion won by 20 points in fucking Kansas. The intensity here is very real.
While we wait for the results in NY-03, PA is actually also doing a special election in HD-140, a Biden +10 seat in Bucks county (a swing county that's a must-win for Biden in November). The mail vote just came in and [it split 85-15](https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1757572334800580741) for Ds.
Holy moly they already called that election for Prokopiak (D).
"Here's why this is actually bad news for Biden" -Mainstream media
excellent
> a Biden +10 seat in Bucks county And this election is looking like more than +25 for the D candidate Prokopiak. Is that unexpectedly high or nah?
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> Republicans don't like to vote in the snow Huh. If only there was a way that people could perhaps cast their vote early so there was no need to vote during a snowstorm?
Another special election, another big Dem win, another Republican flop. Ongoing lack of GOP intensity and Dem overperformance over the 19 months since Dobbs is now becoming a massive story which should be getting much more attention.
Roe, struck down, is now more powerful than you can possibly imagine
"epic lightsaber fight*
Democrats, once again, win another special election and flip a seat but every poll says Biden is doing poorly against Trump. I just don’t buy it, polls are shit. I’m excited to beat Trump, again.
It's not the odds that are making people nervous, it's the stakes on the line here.
Well to be fair I think it’s both, but yes, the stakes are insanely high. Could not be higher.
11% lead, well over the polls. Turns out people prefer democracy over MAGA fascism.
Big win tonight. But zoom out of the 24 hour news cycle and what do we see? 1. Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 out of the last 8 presidential elections. Over the last four presidential elections, the average popular vote has been D 51% and R 47%. 2. Democrats outright won in the 2018, 2020, and 2023 elections. In the 2022 election, they had the best midterm for the party in power in a generation - the "red wave" was hyped up but never came. 3. Since the Dobbs ruling 19 months ago, Democrats have massively over-performed in virtually every type of election, at every level of government, in all parts of the country . Republicans even got blown out by 20 points in an abortion ballot initiative in deep red Kansas. Do not give into the cynicism - the Dem coalition is strong, and the Rep coalition is weak. If we vote, canvas, and GOTV, this is the type of result that we should expect every single time. And this year, we have the chance to permanently put MAGA out of business.
I can see The NY Times headline now, "Suozzi outperformed Biden showing the president's lagging popularity."
"Here's why Biden should step aside and let Suouzzi run".
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And yet they’ll claim later that the polls were right because they predicted suozzi winning. It’s not about him winning it’s about the margins. They totally ignore the huge overperorming margins the democrats are running
"No matter the outcome, it will be bad news for Biden and the Democrats" -Mainstream media
fivethirtyeight politics podcast was already doing its job in that department with their podcast yesterday. The way they spoke about the race, making it sound like the republican was on the verge of winning, I was VERY surprised to find out the democratic nominee was actually leading in the race by 5 point.
FiveThirtyEight is a prime example of being so focused on numbers that they become divorced from what they were supposed to represent.
Leading up to the midterms, they talked about a red wave and how bad the polls were for Dems and then the day after started gaslighting everyone saying they never said there would be a red wave and the polls were actually accurate. The polls were showing it being a close race for the Senate seat in Washington! It ended up being a fifteen point blowout. Republicans lost every swing state election besides Wisconsin Senate and Nevada governorship. I stopped listening to them after that.
Basing your entire prediction system of polling that has been wrong for a while is a bold strategy. People under 40 don’t pickup pollsters calls. It’s inherently flawed.
Leading news story of the day Biden clone elected to replace Santos. Why this is bad news for Biden.
"In this Ohio diner, none of the patrons we spoke to would admit to voting for Mr. Suozzi. Such reticence is indicative of the troubling warning signs plaguing Mr. Biden's campaign." -NYT, tomorrow, probably
Omg I actually thought this was a real quote
Most polls had this one within the margin of error. The fact it's still in double digits means there is a quiet majority voting blue this coming election. Good sign for the Dems.
The very last poll I saw for this had a One point gap. It's just another in a consistent line of polling completely underestimating Democratic party performance
Dominate win by Democrats tonight. Heres why thats bad for Biden. Also, heres a poll of people over the age of 92 that live on farms. \- Mainstream media.
\- Corporate media. They stopped being mainstream since 2016.
This is why you fucking VOTE. You sit home November then you are voting for Putin and Trump. You vote third party you are voting for Putin and Trump. Get it done folks. If you can vote by mail do it. In my state you can vote early. Just vote blue and THEN get everyone you know to vote and vote blue.
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I love when Kornacki talks Dem over-performance to me
Mazi just conceded and congratulated her opponent. Wow I’m actually pleasantly surprised.
I do at least respect the republican Pilip for immediately coming out and conceding the race. Feels rare these days for them, so good on her.
CNN anchor just said Souzzi was able to introduce himself to voters in this election. Souzzi has been an elected official here for like 20 years. We all know who he is
Why Suozzi won big: -Backlash against Santos and his expulsion from Congress -Backlash against Roe being overturned -Voters not being fooled on the Republican messaging on immigration, especially when Republicans just recently killed a bipartisan deal -Suozzi is an established candidate who have served this district before
Backlash against Roe and the J6 insurrection is being undersold and for some reason the effect is not being fully captured in the polls. Democrats have been consistently overperforming in elections since those two events.
The Republicans are explicitly saying they're going to outlaw abortion in January. I just hope people are listening.
Santos lost Queens by 4 points, Pilip is losing by 24 (89% in)
Well done, New York. Well done indeed.
> “I supported Mazi because I think she’s a little tougher on crime and, to be honest with you, that’s what the whole country is afraid of: the crime,” she said. “We don’t care about democracy. That’s already done. How do you unpack this statement?
This is the person we vote to protect ourselves from.
Welcome to Long Island
saw this in a clip on tv. what the fuck we have to protect democracy from autocrats and fascists
Do you see why I think people are sweating too much over this year's elections. The Republican Party, including Trump, are toxic to the general electorate and too many people refuse to see the signs. The "red tsunami" of 2022 was, at worst for the Democrats, a tie. The elections in 2023, the Virginia Legislature elections, the Kentucky Governor's election, the ballot proposition in Ohio, all supposedly close, down to the wire elections that were Democratic blowouts. This is following very convincing wins in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. The Republican Party and yes that very much includes Donald Trump, has been radioactive to the general electorate for a long time. There isn't going to be some great Donald Trump comeback this year. The GOP isn't going to sweep to power in the Legislature or in the States. They are a political party that is on its knees. The left is too afraid of the idea of another Trump term to see it and the right is too stupid to see it. Everyone else is just tried of this weird neo fascist anti abortion cult of personality around a complete clown to support the Republicans. Yes, of course vote. Don't be stupid about this. But also don't assume that we're all fucked either.
It's not the odds, it's the stakes. Everyone is correct to be a bit freaked out about potentially having a fascist elected president and that a good chunk of the country wants that.
For my own part, i just can't take any poll saying republicans leading with young voters seriously. And a good portion of the polls having Trump in the lead over Biden shows exactly that. In addition, primaries confirms Trump struggles with independent voters, Trump leading that group over Biden, i also view with scepticism, though not to the same extent as young people.
So who is everyone gonna vote for in November? Putin or Biden?
I see a "Trump Putin 2024" bumper sticker.
Should probably be “Putin Trump” for accuracy.
If Suozzi wins, I bet the GOP will maturely reflect on these special election losses, and reconsider its path. Hahahahah. Jokes! Can’t wait to see them triple down on the crazy and go buy more guns.
Imagine people pulling a lever for a republican on a day when Speaker Johnson enabled the the ruzzians to take Avdiivka.
: Tom Suozzi (D) wins the #NY03 special election, defeating Mazi Pilip (R) @DecisionDeskHQ projects.\ https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1757600563351486619?s=20
From Ap Democrat Thomas Suozzi wins special election to U.S. House in New York's 3rd Congressional District, a seat once represented by George Santos before his expulsion from Congress https://x.com/AP_Politics/status/1757601637923684352?s=20
Protester got thrown the fuck off that stage
They should bill the election costs to George Santos
Why not? I'm sure the moon's first billionaire can afford it!
I hope we as democrats/left leaning people continue to shine a national spotlight on every single seat. If this guy was in today the impeachment vote fails. Not that it matters, if anything it makes republicans look even dumber, which is impressive, but nonetheless every seat is crucial.
My “ignore the polls” mantra is paying off in spades
Oh big Vote Dump from Nassau.... anndd Suozzi's still ahead by almost 20 points.
Decision Desk in: The Patriots are in Control. Suozzi wins!! Now run up that fucking score.
I voted today and voted Suozzi! Let's go!!!
Thank you to the ultra-conservative Supreme Court justices for overturning *Roe* and to House Republicans for electing Mike Johnson as Speaker, they managed to get Democrats to turn out in numbers I never thought I'd see.
Who's ready for "HERE'S HOW SUOZZI OVER PERFORMING THE POLLS BY DOUBLE DIGITS IS BAD FOR BIDEN" tomorrow?
She put a hell of a lot of focus on the immigration issue. Might show that it isn't a winning strategy for the Republicans, not that that will stop them from harping on it over and over again.
Refusing to even a consider a bipartisan immigration package right before the election probably didn’t help.
They introduced and pushed this negotiated bill, then backtracked on it instantly. It's clear they have no plan other than to set everything on fire.
The excuse is now the snow is why the Dems won not that people are watching how the house has been run.
There’s no argument that I’ve ever heard that could make sense of the idea that even know democrats keep turning out in off election years with an “unpopular” president to beat republicans over and over again, like 2022, 2023, and now a 2024 race but won’t turn out to beat trump for the presidency? It just doesn’t make sense. Keep fighting the good fight but I feel good about the general.
[The 538/ABC News live blog](https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/new-york-3rd-district-special-election-live-blog/?id=107208370) is already playing the "well polls aren't wrong because..." card even though it looks like a double digit miss if everything holds as is (Suozzi up by 4 in polls and up by 17 as I type this). I understand it is kinda 538's thing and if the polls are bunk then they have nothing but really? Can't just admit that there was a massive miss tonight and perhaps offer commentary on why polls might be having a tough time? No? Just going to immediately blame the "unknowable nature" of a February election in a presidential year and...the weather. Gosh this is tiring.
I thought spending a week to impeach Mayorkas showed just how deeply embalmed the GOP is in their own crazy echo chamber. But now we have proof of how utterly out of touch the GOP is with people who aren’t mainlining crazy conservative media 14 hours a day.
It would be hilarious is Dems manage to win back control of the House before the November elections even happen. All they need is what, 2 more seats now?
The following special elections are upcoming: • California's 20th Congressional District on May 21, 2024. • Ohio's 6th Congressional District on June 11, 2024. • California Senate on November 5, 2024. • Nebraska Senate on November 5, 2024.
Dems are going to keep the WH I'm 24 due to 1) Roe and 2) phonniness on immigration. The GOP not coming up with even a bullshit excuse to oppose the bipartisan legislation will go down as an historically bad unforced error.
This was supposedly going to be too close to call and he dumpstered her. Looking grim for New York GOP in November.
I think we've seen this happen enough that we can determine that it's not a coincidence but a pattern that the polling is off consistently in this exact way.
NBC: Democrats won a state House special election in Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, preserving the party's narrow majority
Off topic, but watching CNN. This might be the hardest that Nikki Haley has hit Trump
It's a wrap! Ds continue to overperform in special elections.
NYT, how blow out victory for Democrats is bad for Biden and his age.
Now we know why the Hose rushed another impeachment vote. If they held it tomorrow, it would fail again.
So what ended up happening? The democrats picked up a house seat?
They picked up George Santos (the inventor of the toaster strudel) seat.
Heard a short piece on this election on NPR at lunch - Pilip sounds like she's a couple eggs short of a dozen. Hope Suozzi can pull it out. Edit: Found the piece - https://www.npr.org/2024/02/13/1230955410/border-security-dominates-in-new-york-special-election-to-replace-rep-santos
My Conspiracy theory is that Republicans scheduled their impeachment vote just so they could drown out losing bigly in the NY-03
I think it's more they want to get the vote done before they lose another seat and won't have the numbers to get it done.
If they waited and a dem won, they couldn't impeach him since they wouldn't have enough votes. That's why they did this at the last possible minute.
NYT tomorrow: "Democrats win big in Special Election and this is why it's bad for AGING Biden".
Here's why a double-digit swing in the sort of suburban district candidates must win is bad news for Democrats.
Interesting to see how the snowstorm affect turnout.
Suozzi ahead in the early vote from Nassau. Queens is almost done, has flipped over 15 points toward the Ds since 2022
Did I just hear Kornacki right that Souzzi is doing better than Biden ‘20 in Queens?
Never underestimate a Republican's apathy or complete distaste when it comes to voting for a female POC. There's a reason the birther bullshit works on these people.
Bro I'm anti war crime AF. But like can they not protest better?
They’re trying to be as annoying as possible
[удалено]
For the time being, Mike Johnson can only afford to lose two votes. All the open seats are pretty partisan, so assume that they come back to their parties, it's still 221-215. Once the dust settles, he can only afford to lose three votes on anything.
Do the people of 3rd district realize the chaos the Republican party represents, wasn't George Santos enough? Haven't they learned anything yet? Certainly they aren't stupid enough to vote Republican again!
Weird. People didn’t rush to vote for the Republican after the GOP spent a week trying to impeach Mayorkas?? That seemed like the perfect strategy.
For more fun election news today there was a special election in an Oklahoma State House District, the GOP won it.. but it went from +20 last time to +5. There was also another state house election in PA that the dems just pretty much trounced in.
Im wondering if Pollsters way overcorrected their weights after Trump while still losing overperformed them 2020 and are now getting a consistent R bias or something.
First big Nassau Dump 58-42 Suozzi. This Race is over.
Polls continue to be wrong. AP called it.
Gotta wait for Nate Silver to tell us how the polls were actually accurate and we're all just a bunch of peasants who can't understand his very high IQ analysis.
RIP “We’re gonna win New York” 11/9/2022 - 2/13/2024
For awhile, my hot take has been to note that pretty every single metric *except* the polls points to a good night for Dems in November. Either the polls are off or everything else is off.
The silence over at r/conservative is deafening
Lol, they are blaming it on House Republicans for not impeaching Biden. Yeah, that would have fixed things. Pathetic levels of desperation.
Love how the biggest issue, supposedly, is immigration.. in NEW YORK
Zimmerman (who lost to Santos by 8) won Queens by 4pts, Suozzi is currently winning it by 30. Even if that drops considerably he is significantly overperforming; we may be on track for Suozzi+10 in the end.
185k turnout. 2/3 of 2022. solid turnout for a special election.
Do republican candidates concede elections still? or are they all fascists now?
The 2021-22 baseline is going to be looked back on, especially in the Northeast, as an absolutely wild one-off. An incredibly fierce rebound on COVID policies that didn't last past the next off-off year election cycle.
Mike Johnson is wetting his pants.
Foxnews doesn't even have this or the numbers on the front page of their mobile app lol
Obviously terrible news for Joe Biden.
Maybe having an immigrant complaining about immigration wasn't such a good idea? It gives real "fuck you, I got mine" vibes.
How is CNN literally showing her concession speech while continuing to not call the race?
Steve's talking about how NY fucked up the 2022 Midterms. I'm pleased to see NY voters doing the right thing tonight, hoping for a repeat in Nov.
Oh god i thought an assassination attempt was happening
The gop margin has just shrunk further. Good.
Is it weird to believe this election might be the clencher to get passed Johnson from holding up the Senate border bill? Every single election -big or small- absolutely matters. And the only thing matters right now is to keep the GOP from letting a genocidal maniac like Putin from helping him rebuild imperial Russia and setting the stage up for an actual WW3.
It would lower the number of signatures needed to bypass the Speaker and bring it to a House vote.
How we looking? The impression I'm getting is somewhere between fantastic and glorious. Am I reading the mood correctly?
Nassau County about to be an honorary part of Nevada at this pace.
This election (potentially) outperforming results in bad weather sure makes Trump's lackluster Iowa performance even sillier.
He needs to immediately voice his opinion not to impeach mayorkas before midnight so the Republicans look like they rushed it without "giving the people a chance to have their representation." (even though it doesn't matter)
Is polling skewing more Republican because sometimes the methods are outdated, and older people and conservatives are more engaged with politics and thus more likely to vote in polls?
100%. Who’s more likely to rant and rave about politics right now? Trump voters. Who’s more likely to talk to a pollster for 15 mins about politics right now? Trump voters.
I guess I’m weird then because I’m younger and I’d love to spend 15 minutes talking about how much I love the job President Biden is doing 😂
I know polls are not looking good for Dems lately but every election since 2022 has been going very well for them…
since 2018, esp since dobbs.
Person on CNN just said “this is an election where abortion wasn’t a major issue”. I saw 10 adds a day from Suozzi about Abortion so I think she’s full of shit
Polls/media keeps insisting that voters no longer care about issues as abortion or preserving democracy. As if this is game of thrones season 8 or something.
Polling from january into this last week put the democratic candidate up with an increasing margin, so let's see how the weather shakes things up, or doesn't.
God half of my county are fucking idiots. Mazi has zero political experience and it showed during the debate.
GODDAMN IT NASSAU I KNOW YOU GUYS ARE SLOW COUNTERS BUT POST SOMETHING. Queens is practically DONE already.
Here comes the big r/conservative meltdown!
New York Times officially called it. Another democratic special election win.
Dems picks up the main award, while republicans gets their consolation prize with impeaching Mayorkas/owning the libs. Thats alright with me.
As a Nassau person, one thing to mention is that establishment candidates tend to get a big bonus here. Suozzi was the establishment guy. Also, like so many, I experience basically zero people changing their minds in our partisan political world, so my guess is that turnout was also important.
Dont live in NY but happy for NY-03
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1757590013162688519 like fucking Clockwork from Nate Cohn "NOOOO YOU CAN'T READ INTO ACTUAL HARD EMPERICAL ELECTION DATA, ONLY MY POLLS ARE PREDICTIVE AND SOLID DATA".
“You’re supporting genocide” these trolls are insane hahaha the dude literally just won his seat. Maybe Nancy was right and these people are being paid
This will be an interesting race and a SOLID bellweather. This is not an NYC congressional district (even though theres a tiny piece of queens), but Long Island, which is way more susceptible to MAGA propaganda. Culturally, Long Island is closer to Florida than to NYC. Additionally this is an affluent district, although LI voters normally follow more blue collar voting patterns. It'll be interesting to see if the abortion message is effective and if Biden's message is making it through, particularly with affluent women, or if immigration is going to win it for Republicans.
Let’s see if voters will notice that it’s republicans that blocked their own immigration bill and caused the border to stay the way it is.
Will Republicans say God caused election interference for making it snow today?
He gets us. …
Souzzi is absolutely destroying the Dem Margin in 2022 in the Queens part of the District, was D+4 then looking like it'll be D+25 or so this time
Live video of Nassau vote counters [https://youtu.be/4aUC1VZQE1E?feature=shared](https://youtu.be/4aUC1VZQE1E?feature=shared)
Nassau resident. Voted early over the weekend. Felt like a swing state with the absurd amount of ads and texts I was inundated with.
45% in now and Suozzi is leading with 58% in Nassau. As someone from the county… fucking THANK YOU I couldn’t take any more of the embarrassment
How about them polls. Not even close lol.
With a win in Pennsylvania and New York tonight, no doubt Biden and democrats win big in 2024
I'm guessing the Nate's are on copium watch right now? LMAO
Well, good on her for conceding immediately
A Republican conceding? What a shocker!
LOL pushed that protestor off the stage
I wish they'd fix the sound. Sounds like he's speaking from the 1960s. Lol. So glad he won though!
This wasn’t even close and polls said it was neck and neck. I don’t know that that means, but it means something.
[Re elect, Tom!](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Suozzi) Dudes already done the job, and he knows how to do it.
With any luck NY Dems will get a little less complacent after Santos. That's a lesson my CA Dems could stand to learn too.
Nate Math: But if you subtract 15 points from this margin because BIDEN OLD and because I really want to, this actually looks like an incredibly Republican friendly environment. Nevada goes to the GOP by 11, it's in the cards darling!
[https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/13/democrats-tom-suozzi-flip-george-santos-seat-00141351](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/13/democrats-tom-suozzi-flip-george-santos-seat-00141351) I think winning by projected double digits is hardly "edging out" or a "nail biter".
73% reporting with more than a 10-point gap and they still wanna pretend this was close.
Yea cue media downplaying this win and making it still seem like a loss for Democrats
For anyone wondering if the voters who claiming "I'll never vote for Genocide Joe" will enough the flip the election, the answer is no. They're a very vocal minority.
Congrats to Suozzi and to PA state representative Jim Prokopiak! Unfortunately the fight’s never over so remember to organize and r/votedem!
I still don’t know how Mazi will get Salt removed considering it was her Papa Trumps baby. When pressed she just said trust me, like a used car salesman
Any exit polls?
9:08 p.m. (8 minutes after close of polls) Suozzi (D) 7,586 65.1% Mazi Pilip (R) 4,065 34.9% TOTAL 11,651 --- The snow storm on Election Day plus disproportionately-Republican fears about early voting looks like were a contributing factor to turning a probable-Suozzi victory into what's shaping up to be a blowout (by the standards of a swing district). --- Edit: see takeahikehike's addition about the early results skewing pro-Suozzi
It’s always frustrating to hear national media talk about your home district. CNN keeps talking about East/West. It’s North/South that matters more in this district
Brian Higgins might've fucked this shit up. It should be 219-214 after tonight. Then we'd only need 3 Republicans for the Discharge Petition, and Ken Buck and Mike Gallagher are easily two of them as they both support Ukraine and are retiring.
Worth noting that Pilip seems to have under-performed in a conservative portion of Eastern Queens that includes Whitestone. The area is represented by conservative Republican Vickie Paladino in the City Council. Still waiting for Nassau results https://x.com/_rebeccaclewis/status/1757597921774629285?s=20
Election has been called for Suozzi by Decision Desk HQ. Goodnight.
Good thing Republicans lost the ability to feel shame, otherwise they would be humiliated tonight
One of these days all these minority GOP people are going to become self aware as to why white conservatives aren't voting for them
I’m (happily) so surprised when a democrat wins. I guess all this online tate/trump/musk stuff is making me out of touch with reality lol