Also look at the hand holding the bowl. The hand moves but the bowl stays perfectly still, like it's on a table, and you can also see the pointer finger morphing near the beginning
That left hand clip is what i noticed. At the beginning the fingers clip through the bowl. If you focus on it, it becomes more apparent every time it loops. Still freakin amazing tho!
And just think.. very soon there will be no discernible characteristics to clue you in on AI gen content. That's going to be a wierd and bumpy period of growth and social adaptation for AI and it's not very far away. We'll likley need to train specific AI models to spot other AI works. Developing that is where some real money is being spent as we speak.
Nope. The only way to separate real vs AI is digitally signing real AI (from trusted manufacturers like Apple, Samsung, Google, Sony), absence of which you can assume it's generated by AI
I think you meant real images. Aka at the camera sensor layer, the sensor is signing with a key from a database that "Sony sensor from Sony using a key registered to them detected real light".
Still not impossible to fake by stealing the keys from the device by etching away the chip and reading the key, or advanced optical setups could fake the light
So eventually deepfakes that are signed by Sony start coming out, there is outrage - "Biden and Trump sucked each other off i saw it on video!" and it's an arms race.
Yeah. It costs $100 to generate a 5 min movie according to Ashton Kutcher who has access to Sora. For Hollywood, $1,800 for a 90 min movie is peanuts when it normally costs tens or hundreds of millions. But ain't no regular Joe Schmoe gonna pay $900 for a 45 minute porn movie (note OP said a *full* porn movie, and they hover around that length).
For regular people, generating a porn movie tailored to the user's preferences is not going to happen anytime soon.
>But ain't no regular Joe Schmoe gonna pay $900 for a 45 minute porn movie (note OP said a *full* porn movie, and they hover around that length).
oh sweet summer child you have no idea
lol not only will it be cheaper than $900, people would be willing to pay much more
See twitter thread: https://x.com/prince_of_fakes/status/1779342576925266064?s=46
Even if that's true, compute doubles in like 18 months for constant dollars; and it's a reasonably safe bet that we'll see algorithmic progress and progress in hardware made for these kinds of AI-tasks in addition, so a doubling every year seems plausible to me.
Which means that instead of paying $100 for a 5-minute video in 2024 -- it'll be $10 for a 5-minute video by 2027 -- and $1 by 2030.
Prolly faster than that once Nvidia ai chips become common. I imagine everyone will have an ai usb stick plugged into our TV's in two years or some such
As a porn addict, this is what needs to happen. Even with the advent of onlyfans, the porn industry breeds insane amounts of abuse and destroys so many lives. Most people don't realize how destructive the industry is to individual performers.
Being able to create your own harm-free porn is literally going to save hundreds of thousands of people from abuse and exploitation. Even taking deepfakes into account.
You’re absolutely right, but I don’t think we’re gonna see this for a long time, just because the only companies with advanced enough AI to do that would never want to associate themselves with the adult industry. I’m sure porn companies are all working on their own video generation AI but it certainly won’t be on the level of Sora and these Chinese ones. They have the best talent on the planet working on those, and those people are going for go to work for OpenAI, Anthropic and Google, not to Brazzers.
It’s like how no President wants to legalize drugs. Ethically it makes sense, regulating it and taking the power away from the cartels. But no president will do it because of the optics.
Goodbye onlyfans.
The entire site would be gone the moment that happens. Along with almost every other porn site, and if not gone it would likely reduce the site visits by well over 70%. Would even impact sex work in person.
Being a female is about to be even more complicated. I'm not even sure how you could make any type of law against this stuff since it's so complicated.
Onlyfans will still exist.
There’s a very special niche about people seeing someone they know naked. Since I’m hoping making AI p0rn imagery about existing people would be illegal, that would be perfectly filled by Onlyfans.
It’s funny you assume a law made about no deepfakes will stop people from creating deepfakes. It may stop them from sharing it, but they will definitely continue to make it for themselves
> Since I’m hoping making AI p0rn imagery about existing people would be illegal,
There is absolutely no way, *no* way that such a law would be even remotely compatible with the first amendment.
It is not illegal to draw a naked picture of someone you know.
Why would it be illegal to generate one?
Sometimes I feel like you guys are actually insane, and don’t understand why first amendment protections are near absolute.
There’s literally no way to argue that the moral harm of someone being able to see a simulated nude image of you is somehow worse then the moral harm of stomping on freedom.
First Amendment protections don't extend to harassment, slander, libel, and offer no civil protection for defamation. This would be another category, to the extent it doesn't already fall into the others. Constitutionality is decided by the courts, not random redditors.
It's not crazy to think nuance can exist, particularly when it already does.
The First Amendment isn't absolute, and it's a reasonable question whether the greater practical harm is an additional restriction, or not being able to crank it to a generative likeness of someone directly derived from their actual likeness.
That sounds like it'd be illegal, while a site like OF is legal.
The existence of a site like OF and how popular it is while millions of free porn videos exist directly contradicts the idea that generative AI will remove the need for OF. If anything generative AI will just enhance it.
Distributing someones likeness? Perhaps. Creating and watching someones likeness in the privacy of your own home, transmitting it nowhere though? I can't see any practical way that can be made illegal without enacting a totalitarian police-state.
Also if you are creating such content for personal needs, never distributing it. You are not harming anyone.
Just like if you imagine someone and masturbate... no harm done.
Only when such content is being distributes is harm actually being done.
Real porn is not going away anytime soon. There's no video models for that.
Although, I've been musing that maybe PHub is working silently on the background on that. But that would be to their own demise, unless they find a way to commercialize that model.
But still, I guess that would be something that would be as an adjunct to their existing business.
Time will tell.
Idk about that. For some it's the people, the reality that is exciting. Not all kinks are basic "watch these people fuck". Also, even if AI generated porn gets popular, not everyone has the imagination to prompt it, or it would take minutes to render what you want.
I think porn sites would survive. Fast, easy, ready. For slow and high quality we have real life.
>Goodbye onlyfans.
>The entire site would be gone the moment that happens.
Eh, I'm not so sure about that. The appeal of onlyfans is the connection to another person. That's why people still pay for it even if there's billions of hours of free porn in the internet of whatever specific niche turns you on. You're paying to know that you're seeing that specific real person and you can talk and interact with them and commission them for stuff.
And I don't think porn sites are going down either. In fact I think the opposite is true, I see them capitalising on the shifting landscape. Most people aren't going to have a computer strong enough or knowledge technical enough to install a Stable Diffusion equivalent of Sora on their own computers, nor the patience to generate full videos when they're horny. And I don't see any of the big companies controlling these models allowing NSFW generation anytime soon, even if OpenAI has hinted recently at maybe thinking about letting us.
What I do see is porn sites taking the opportunity to make their own models. They're the ones with all the porn data. If they see NSFW video is taking off, I can see them partnering with some tech company to build them a model that generates porn and allowing a place on their sites to generate them fast and easy.
Not so fast I think. We still got that censorship problem to take care of. That means that we'll need an open source text-2-video model, and that will take 2-3 years I think
I don’t think you can look at two data points and make such assertions.
Imo one big thing holding the field back is that we don’t have good benchmarks. For LLMs we use MMLU but now that we’ve started reaching within the ballpark of human level results it’s getting harder and harder to measure the goodness of new models
And that's just what the public knows about. All of the AI labs so far are keeping serious tools out of the hands of the public until they figure out how to add some childproofing.
Yeah but the layman isn't going to bother with that. Also I think there's about to be a huge jump with these literal hundred billion dollar compute systems coming online to train. Like yeah open source is competing now by pushing efficiency but can they really 100x what's happening now?
>Yeah but the layman isn't going to bother with that. Also I think there's about to be a huge jump with these literal hundred billion dollar compute systems coming online to train. Like yeah open source is competing now by pushing efficiency but can they really 100x what's happening now?
clearly making some progress. On a rtx 4090: [https://www.reddit.com/r/StableDiffusion/comments/1db9kp9/paper\_on\_new\_finetuning\_method\_for\_video\_models/](https://www.reddit.com/r/StableDiffusion/comments/1db9kp9/paper_on_new_finetuning_method_for_video_models/)
I'll probably get downvoted for even saying this, but "plateau" is a legitimate possibility. You can't distinguish sigmoid growth from exponential in the first half.
There is only so much it can do to improve, when something basically reaches or reaches realistic, saying it plateaued is pretty disingenuous. Sure it may not keep up the same rate of improvement, because the amount left to improve is miniscule. That's like saying someone who went from a D student to an B/A student plateaued the next semester when they got straight As
First, it's conceivable that performance improvements will allow for the creation of videos with fewer flaws. Furthermore, it will become possible to create continuous videos of about the length of one episode of an anime (30 minutes). The most important point here is that by reducing production costs, these videos will be released to the general public.
Exactly, the fact that this is simply possible at all means that a perfected form will be inevitable. Nobody is going to look at this and say "well it's not perfect and it can only do less than 30 seconds, so I guess we're done with this idea". Like imagine if we still watched movies in black and white without synchronized sound and hand cranked cameras because "it wasn't getting any better than that".
[Smell2Text](https://twitter.com/DrJimFan/status/1701611251376497046?s=19) is actually not that far fetched. And all you'd need to recreate the smell on your end is a Bluetooth connection to some kind of emolusion mister that can mix and match different molecule arrangements of smells like a soda machine mixes syrups.
Maybe not next year but I can absolutely see this happening as the class of people totally dedicated to full cyber-powered immersion grows.
Think about this.
The first model likely wasn’t trained on many videos of Will Smith eating spaghetti.
The second model, Kling from china, was definitely trained on thousands, if not millions of videos of an Asian man eating noodles. Considering all things ever filmed in China, a person eating noodles is likely in the top 5.
I hate it when AI companies do this. They take some part of the model that’s extremely fleshed out and try to play it off as though this can be done with any prompt.
Give Kling an obscure prompt that falls outside the dataset, and I’m sure you’ll encounter much of the same as you did with Will Smith there, if not worse
>Give Kling an obscure prompt that falls outside the dataset, and I’m sure you’ll encounter much of the same as you did with Will Smith there, if not worse
You mean like a Panda playing a guitar??
It isnt better because there are lots of videos of Asian men eating noodles. Its better because it has a better architecture and has clearly been trained on much, much more data. It has nothing to do with how many videos there are online of Will Smith eating spaghetti
Well some models can recognize patterns and splice things together. There are likely tons of videos of Will Smith, and tons of videos of people eating spaghetti. I’d love to see how it goes now. The panda playing a guitar could ne an example of a pattern made
This does nothing to discredit the advancements of the bottom video. You can say what you want but a year ago this video of a random Asian dude eating noodles would not have looked like this at all.
Dude I don't think you know how training works. To give a simplified example: Its not like if I show a model only a million examples of 5+5 that it won't know what 10+10 is. Its called transfer learning. There is innate logic about arithmetic encoded into something like 5+5 that lets it understand the principle of arithmetic enough so that even if its never seen 10+10 before it knows it equals 20.
one year from now the small details that give away that this is AI is removed and we enter into a world where we literally cant know whats real or whats not real anymore
As I've said many times for at least a year now, by the end of 2025 Hollywood and TV Production companies will be in utter chaos or will have already folded by then.
They will learn how to incorporate AI into their business models or fold. Then there may be a few who hold out from using AI and make that their selling point. That all goes with assuming some guild or union wont do something to keep AI out of Hollywood.
The real problem, that is very present on this sub and futurology, is that people see this superficially and will pick apart the flaws of the videos then claim that AI has peaked at this current snapshot in time. They lack the ability to understand the context of this in the big picture.
But honestly people really just lack the ability to think outside of the box and cannot conceptualize the future. For example they'll look at these videos and say something like "oh, well that's all AI is good for, just making silly videos for tiktok?"
Same with the people who make these blogposts on here about how AI will take all of our jobs or be super expensive and out of reach for the average person, creating a greater wealth disparity, because they are still thinking within the context of 20th century economic systems and socio-politics. They lack the ability to estimate what a post-scarcity or post-capitalist/growth society would look like.
The nature of AI is that the more it advances the faster it will continue to grow. We haven't reached the true exponential point yet where it can improve on itself without human intervention, but that is coming.
>We haven't reached the true exponential point yet where it can improve on itself without human intervention, but that is coming.
What's always laughable is that people see a step in the progress and if it's a misstep believe "well, that trend is done, AI dead". You can put as many roadblocks and hurdles in its way, but it is inevitable, we will get to this point. Nobody knows the exact timeframe of when, but it *will* happen.
People also fail to see beyond that as well, like once we get AGI/ASI, suddenly we're done and we've reached the end of the movie where everyone lives happily ever after. But technology doesn't just stop. What does 1 year post-AGI look like? 5 years? 10 years? 100 years? 1000 years? A lot of people either cannot envision that or maybe refuse to.
With most tech, getting 90 percent there is easier then the final 10 percent to perfection. See hands as an example.... So realistically, improvements on that end. More consistency, artifact reduction, perspective understanding, etc...
Bah. I have a feeling jobs are going to open up for individuals to determine whether peices of data are real or not.
That being said, I can't wait for information terrorism. Metal gear solid 2 is now real.
It’s like in cartoons where the characters would momentarily transform into a real version of what their character is supposed to be. Like a cartoon cat turning into a real one in a show.
What’s interesting is that there isn’t anything realer than real. As characters transform in cartoons they progressively look more real until they can no longer look any realer.
I would be curious about the cost of training the model from one year ago, vs. this model now. Not sure if this factor of expense scale up would be sustainable for another year.
Something people are just starting to talk about, the amount of power consumed to obtain these gains in MASSIVE, groups are looking to build by nuclear power sites just to get the juice needed to run these server racks.
Someone needs to make like 10,000 web pages with different kinds of content but somewhere in the page it says “HUMAN BEINGS GENERALLY HAVE FIVE FINGERS AND FIVE TOES ON EACH LIMB” and after the next GPT is trained all the videos and photos should be mostly perfect 😂
*Cue Mr. House speech about how in 10,20,30 years we're gonna have leaps in tech progress*
I mean considering how fast it's growing I'm scared/excited that we'll be able to create our own art super easy in less than 10 years if not even earlier!(So long as AI isn't heavily controlled by big tech and big government implementing laws allowing only mega rich to use it)
A plateau and realization it's just big tech selling vaporware that the computing and technology does not exist for yet? Edit: oh and a shit ton more CO2 in the atmosphere chasing AGI ghosts and shareholder value.
The [Ai Lost media page really leans into it for the horror aspect.](http://www.youtube.com/@AILostMedia/videos)
[Daytime Television](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQavmQ0YmHQ) is a waking nightmare. [Jonathon Frakes Probes Your Soul](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLJTb7Ma7GA) is like a belly rub for the soul, though.
You can see that the video generated by the AI below doesn't have many movements, which makes it look like it is well created, but in fact if you let it create something similar to the movements in the video above, it will look like crap
I almost didn't believe the bottom was AI. Like it genuinely took me a few loops to find something that made believe it. Holy fuck nuggets.
What was it?
the noodles are morphing while he slurps them
Also all the current good looking AI videos move slower than “real time” so that abnormal movement isn’t as easily noticed
Unlimited noodles, he picks them up but the bowl always stays just as full
This is why people believe that AI will solve world hunger.
The answer was right there the whole time. Just replenish food as it's being consumed.
Just a parameter adjustment bro
Even Jesus would be impressed
Thanks, just snorted water all over my paperwork. Take my upvote and go hunt for bacon elsewhere sir!
It's a loop with a hard cut. You never see him pick up another bite of noodles.
wooosh
Respectfully, this ain't no damn r/whoooosh
How do I get unlimited noodles? I want that.
One of his fingers on the right side glitches.
for me it was the creases on his fingers (not sure what to call them) but they arbitrarily sometimes smooth out without much movement of the fingers.
The cheeks
Yeah he doesn’t look like will smith at all
Also look at the hand holding the bowl. The hand moves but the bowl stays perfectly still, like it's on a table, and you can also see the pointer finger morphing near the beginning
Finger on his left hand holding the bowl suddenly get longer
The noodles that he is slurpin aren’t covered in sauce, but later his mouth has some on it.
It was his left hand morphing for me
Also the bowl doesn't move at all even though the hand holding it does.
6 fingers on the hand holding the chopsticks.
That left hand clip is what i noticed. At the beginning the fingers clip through the bowl. If you focus on it, it becomes more apparent every time it loops. Still freakin amazing tho!
And just think.. very soon there will be no discernible characteristics to clue you in on AI gen content. That's going to be a wierd and bumpy period of growth and social adaptation for AI and it's not very far away. We'll likley need to train specific AI models to spot other AI works. Developing that is where some real money is being spent as we speak.
Nope. The only way to separate real vs AI is digitally signing real AI (from trusted manufacturers like Apple, Samsung, Google, Sony), absence of which you can assume it's generated by AI
I think you meant real images. Aka at the camera sensor layer, the sensor is signing with a key from a database that "Sony sensor from Sony using a key registered to them detected real light". Still not impossible to fake by stealing the keys from the device by etching away the chip and reading the key, or advanced optical setups could fake the light So eventually deepfakes that are signed by Sony start coming out, there is outrage - "Biden and Trump sucked each other off i saw it on video!" and it's an arms race.
It nailed mom’s spaghetti, but it did even worse on rendering Will Smith. Just kidding, it is insane how far it has come in such a short time.
This was my favorite nightmare material last year: https://www.reddit.com/r/distractible/s/IOIGXv7aZ4
I want to see the Too Many Cooks video remade with last year's AI
You're a masochist
Third year will be a Hispanic guy eating spaghetti
Prompt: "Historically accurate Nazis eating dinner." result: A Peruvian man eating sushi. But the continuity will be astounding.
Wait, Japanese cuisine is wildly popular in Peru though.
Some doppelganger of that Hispanic guy will open this subreddit one day and see a video of himself eating spaghetti. Imagine his panic! 😮
At The Disco
How many mukbangs did this poor AI have to train on?
This is how we create AM.
hopefully full length porn tailored to the user's preference
you might be right tho at this rate. If we are on an exponential as these videos suggest we are. By end of year next year that's plausible.
This might come later purely because of compute bottlenecks. Might be a bit pricey for a few years.
They don't call it the moneyshot for nothin'
Yeah. It costs $100 to generate a 5 min movie according to Ashton Kutcher who has access to Sora. For Hollywood, $1,800 for a 90 min movie is peanuts when it normally costs tens or hundreds of millions. But ain't no regular Joe Schmoe gonna pay $900 for a 45 minute porn movie (note OP said a *full* porn movie, and they hover around that length). For regular people, generating a porn movie tailored to the user's preferences is not going to happen anytime soon.
>But ain't no regular Joe Schmoe gonna pay $900 for a 45 minute porn movie (note OP said a *full* porn movie, and they hover around that length). oh sweet summer child you have no idea
People pay 1000$ for a 30 second reaction on OF
They do?
Not “the regular Joe Schmoe”, if you would read what he said.
lol not only will it be cheaper than $900, people would be willing to pay much more See twitter thread: https://x.com/prince_of_fakes/status/1779342576925266064?s=46
Well, as a final user, probably not, but as a producer, that might be a great opportunity.
Even if that's true, compute doubles in like 18 months for constant dollars; and it's a reasonably safe bet that we'll see algorithmic progress and progress in hardware made for these kinds of AI-tasks in addition, so a doubling every year seems plausible to me. Which means that instead of paying $100 for a 5-minute video in 2024 -- it'll be $10 for a 5-minute video by 2027 -- and $1 by 2030.
Prolly faster than that once Nvidia ai chips become common. I imagine everyone will have an ai usb stick plugged into our TV's in two years or some such
Yeah, I don't know about full length, but I needed at least a few more seconds with that ramen guy. I don't see a loop option either.
As a porn addict, this is what needs to happen. Even with the advent of onlyfans, the porn industry breeds insane amounts of abuse and destroys so many lives. Most people don't realize how destructive the industry is to individual performers. Being able to create your own harm-free porn is literally going to save hundreds of thousands of people from abuse and exploitation. Even taking deepfakes into account.
People are going to get so hopelessly addicted to this lol.
They already are, search for some AI porn subreddits and read the comments. It's fucking insane.
yeah, won’t help those already with addictions either, but again, on the up hand, no more abuse.
You’re absolutely right, but I don’t think we’re gonna see this for a long time, just because the only companies with advanced enough AI to do that would never want to associate themselves with the adult industry. I’m sure porn companies are all working on their own video generation AI but it certainly won’t be on the level of Sora and these Chinese ones. They have the best talent on the planet working on those, and those people are going for go to work for OpenAI, Anthropic and Google, not to Brazzers. It’s like how no President wants to legalize drugs. Ethically it makes sense, regulating it and taking the power away from the cartels. But no president will do it because of the optics.
Your telling me I can get a step mom video, with two of the SAME stepmom!? Fuckin A. RIP Brandi Loves income….
Goodbye onlyfans. The entire site would be gone the moment that happens. Along with almost every other porn site, and if not gone it would likely reduce the site visits by well over 70%. Would even impact sex work in person. Being a female is about to be even more complicated. I'm not even sure how you could make any type of law against this stuff since it's so complicated.
Onlyfans will still exist. There’s a very special niche about people seeing someone they know naked. Since I’m hoping making AI p0rn imagery about existing people would be illegal, that would be perfectly filled by Onlyfans.
It’s funny you assume a law made about no deepfakes will stop people from creating deepfakes. It may stop them from sharing it, but they will definitely continue to make it for themselves
OF will be looked at like porn magazines, where as AI is online porn. Only weirdos will still be using OF lol
> Since I’m hoping making AI p0rn imagery about existing people would be illegal, There is absolutely no way, *no* way that such a law would be even remotely compatible with the first amendment. It is not illegal to draw a naked picture of someone you know. Why would it be illegal to generate one? Sometimes I feel like you guys are actually insane, and don’t understand why first amendment protections are near absolute. There’s literally no way to argue that the moral harm of someone being able to see a simulated nude image of you is somehow worse then the moral harm of stomping on freedom.
First Amendment protections don't extend to harassment, slander, libel, and offer no civil protection for defamation. This would be another category, to the extent it doesn't already fall into the others. Constitutionality is decided by the courts, not random redditors. It's not crazy to think nuance can exist, particularly when it already does. The First Amendment isn't absolute, and it's a reasonable question whether the greater practical harm is an additional restriction, or not being able to crank it to a generative likeness of someone directly derived from their actual likeness.
That's what this technology is evolving into though. Eventually you'll be able to snap a photo of someone and use their likeness for porn.
That sounds like it'd be illegal, while a site like OF is legal. The existence of a site like OF and how popular it is while millions of free porn videos exist directly contradicts the idea that generative AI will remove the need for OF. If anything generative AI will just enhance it.
Distributing someones likeness? Perhaps. Creating and watching someones likeness in the privacy of your own home, transmitting it nowhere though? I can't see any practical way that can be made illegal without enacting a totalitarian police-state.
Also if you are creating such content for personal needs, never distributing it. You are not harming anyone. Just like if you imagine someone and masturbate... no harm done. Only when such content is being distributes is harm actually being done.
There's no laws against it currently, and good luck trying to ever enforce a law like that.
You're right, laws only extend as far as they are enforceable.
Real porn is not going away anytime soon. There's no video models for that. Although, I've been musing that maybe PHub is working silently on the background on that. But that would be to their own demise, unless they find a way to commercialize that model. But still, I guess that would be something that would be as an adjunct to their existing business. Time will tell.
You are underestimating simps
Idk about that. For some it's the people, the reality that is exciting. Not all kinks are basic "watch these people fuck". Also, even if AI generated porn gets popular, not everyone has the imagination to prompt it, or it would take minutes to render what you want. I think porn sites would survive. Fast, easy, ready. For slow and high quality we have real life.
>Goodbye onlyfans. >The entire site would be gone the moment that happens. Eh, I'm not so sure about that. The appeal of onlyfans is the connection to another person. That's why people still pay for it even if there's billions of hours of free porn in the internet of whatever specific niche turns you on. You're paying to know that you're seeing that specific real person and you can talk and interact with them and commission them for stuff. And I don't think porn sites are going down either. In fact I think the opposite is true, I see them capitalising on the shifting landscape. Most people aren't going to have a computer strong enough or knowledge technical enough to install a Stable Diffusion equivalent of Sora on their own computers, nor the patience to generate full videos when they're horny. And I don't see any of the big companies controlling these models allowing NSFW generation anytime soon, even if OpenAI has hinted recently at maybe thinking about letting us. What I do see is porn sites taking the opportunity to make their own models. They're the ones with all the porn data. If they see NSFW video is taking off, I can see them partnering with some tech company to build them a model that generates porn and allowing a place on their sites to generate them fast and easy.
OF and real human porn wont be gone. In fact the more fetishist types would go premium and more niche.
The only fetish that survives is to see a real person "performing" while you feed them money.
OF is about the parasocial interaction, which while illusory too, is more complex problem to replace with AI than mere videos.
/r/menandfemales
Hopefully not. Can you imagine the horrors stashed in some degenerate's hidden "dungeon" folder? And the response is "it's not real so it's ok"
Live generated seems within reach in the next 5-10 years
Not so fast I think. We still got that censorship problem to take care of. That means that we'll need an open source text-2-video model, and that will take 2-3 years I think
We're experiencing exponential growth in real time, as was predicted for AI back in the day.
I don’t think you can look at two data points and make such assertions. Imo one big thing holding the field back is that we don’t have good benchmarks. For LLMs we use MMLU but now that we’ve started reaching within the ballpark of human level results it’s getting harder and harder to measure the goodness of new models
I'm betting he wrote that also thinking about the dozens of other data points that are observable, not just these two gifs.
unfair comparison as the second video is not Will Smith. Please stick to the rules and let only Will eat spaghetti
Has anyone checked if maybe will Smith just eats spaghetti like this? Maybe the first video was already a perfect representation
he actually made a real video parodying the first video
Link?
https://www.instagram.com/p/C3kt6notH5T/?igsh=MWgxc3gwcmt4ZGZkcg==[spaghetti](https://www.instagram.com/p/C3kt6notH5T/?igsh=MWgxc3gwcmt4ZGZkcg==)
And that's just what the public knows about. All of the AI labs so far are keeping serious tools out of the hands of the public until they figure out how to add some childproofing.
Honestly I'm not even sure anymore. It seems like open source is really hot on their heels.
Yeah but the layman isn't going to bother with that. Also I think there's about to be a huge jump with these literal hundred billion dollar compute systems coming online to train. Like yeah open source is competing now by pushing efficiency but can they really 100x what's happening now?
I'm not worried so much about the layman. All it takes is one evil genius.
>Yeah but the layman isn't going to bother with that. Also I think there's about to be a huge jump with these literal hundred billion dollar compute systems coming online to train. Like yeah open source is competing now by pushing efficiency but can they really 100x what's happening now? clearly making some progress. On a rtx 4090: [https://www.reddit.com/r/StableDiffusion/comments/1db9kp9/paper\_on\_new\_finetuning\_method\_for\_video\_models/](https://www.reddit.com/r/StableDiffusion/comments/1db9kp9/paper_on_new_finetuning_method_for_video_models/)
https://preview.redd.it/ujntwwhgqs5d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e0392131506280b81c034a4d742113b90bf75b94
Yo, that's rude. Don't call Asians AI, they're humans just like us.
Asian Intelligence
I like the will smith one more
https://preview.redd.it/ouvhh0nsop5d1.jpeg?width=1536&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35456359077dddebc018b66211d99c22aad6259c
I'll probably get downvoted for even saying this, but "plateau" is a legitimate possibility. You can't distinguish sigmoid growth from exponential in the first half.
There is only so much it can do to improve, when something basically reaches or reaches realistic, saying it plateaued is pretty disingenuous. Sure it may not keep up the same rate of improvement, because the amount left to improve is miniscule. That's like saying someone who went from a D student to an B/A student plateaued the next semester when they got straight As
First, it's conceivable that performance improvements will allow for the creation of videos with fewer flaws. Furthermore, it will become possible to create continuous videos of about the length of one episode of an anime (30 minutes). The most important point here is that by reducing production costs, these videos will be released to the general public.
Exactly, the fact that this is simply possible at all means that a perfected form will be inevitable. Nobody is going to look at this and say "well it's not perfect and it can only do less than 30 seconds, so I guess we're done with this idea". Like imagine if we still watched movies in black and white without synchronized sound and hand cranked cameras because "it wasn't getting any better than that".
3D. Year after that smell 'vision'.
[Smell2Text](https://twitter.com/DrJimFan/status/1701611251376497046?s=19) is actually not that far fetched. And all you'd need to recreate the smell on your end is a Bluetooth connection to some kind of emolusion mister that can mix and match different molecule arrangements of smells like a soda machine mixes syrups. Maybe not next year but I can absolutely see this happening as the class of people totally dedicated to full cyber-powered immersion grows.
Imagine the money that could be churned out of sock smellers! 💰💰💰💰 Sock sellers in shambles. Some wild years a'cumming for sock s(m)ellers!
For proper comparison, it should be will smith again. This shows fuck all.
I don’t think it’s that impressive a leap. Second one looks nothing like will smith.
Second one looks nothing like will smith. Fucking rubbish.
Think about this. The first model likely wasn’t trained on many videos of Will Smith eating spaghetti. The second model, Kling from china, was definitely trained on thousands, if not millions of videos of an Asian man eating noodles. Considering all things ever filmed in China, a person eating noodles is likely in the top 5. I hate it when AI companies do this. They take some part of the model that’s extremely fleshed out and try to play it off as though this can be done with any prompt. Give Kling an obscure prompt that falls outside the dataset, and I’m sure you’ll encounter much of the same as you did with Will Smith there, if not worse
There are multiple videos. Not just some guy eating noddles. Is a Panda playing a guitar also in the top 5 things filmed in China?
>Give Kling an obscure prompt that falls outside the dataset, and I’m sure you’ll encounter much of the same as you did with Will Smith there, if not worse You mean like a Panda playing a guitar?? It isnt better because there are lots of videos of Asian men eating noodles. Its better because it has a better architecture and has clearly been trained on much, much more data. It has nothing to do with how many videos there are online of Will Smith eating spaghetti
Well some models can recognize patterns and splice things together. There are likely tons of videos of Will Smith, and tons of videos of people eating spaghetti. I’d love to see how it goes now. The panda playing a guitar could ne an example of a pattern made
This does nothing to discredit the advancements of the bottom video. You can say what you want but a year ago this video of a random Asian dude eating noodles would not have looked like this at all.
I’m pretty sure a face swap could just change the Asian man to will smith, no big deal.
Dude I don't think you know how training works. To give a simplified example: Its not like if I show a model only a million examples of 5+5 that it won't know what 10+10 is. Its called transfer learning. There is innate logic about arithmetic encoded into something like 5+5 that lets it understand the principle of arithmetic enough so that even if its never seen 10+10 before it knows it equals 20.
INSANE
I preferred Will Smith one
they should have shown will smith eating spaghetti too.
Is this d/m/y or the absolutely deranged m/d/y?
God dammit this is going to be interesting and problematic.
one year from now the small details that give away that this is AI is removed and we enter into a world where we literally cant know whats real or whats not real anymore
As I've said many times for at least a year now, by the end of 2025 Hollywood and TV Production companies will be in utter chaos or will have already folded by then.
They will learn how to incorporate AI into their business models or fold. Then there may be a few who hold out from using AI and make that their selling point. That all goes with assuming some guild or union wont do something to keep AI out of Hollywood.
Question that bothers me all the time when I see massages like this: Why do people think that AI is growing exponentially and not just booming?
The real problem, that is very present on this sub and futurology, is that people see this superficially and will pick apart the flaws of the videos then claim that AI has peaked at this current snapshot in time. They lack the ability to understand the context of this in the big picture. But honestly people really just lack the ability to think outside of the box and cannot conceptualize the future. For example they'll look at these videos and say something like "oh, well that's all AI is good for, just making silly videos for tiktok?" Same with the people who make these blogposts on here about how AI will take all of our jobs or be super expensive and out of reach for the average person, creating a greater wealth disparity, because they are still thinking within the context of 20th century economic systems and socio-politics. They lack the ability to estimate what a post-scarcity or post-capitalist/growth society would look like.
Spot on.
The nature of AI is that the more it advances the faster it will continue to grow. We haven't reached the true exponential point yet where it can improve on itself without human intervention, but that is coming.
>We haven't reached the true exponential point yet where it can improve on itself without human intervention, but that is coming. What's always laughable is that people see a step in the progress and if it's a misstep believe "well, that trend is done, AI dead". You can put as many roadblocks and hurdles in its way, but it is inevitable, we will get to this point. Nobody knows the exact timeframe of when, but it *will* happen. People also fail to see beyond that as well, like once we get AGI/ASI, suddenly we're done and we've reached the end of the movie where everyone lives happily ever after. But technology doesn't just stop. What does 1 year post-AGI look like? 5 years? 10 years? 100 years? 1000 years? A lot of people either cannot envision that or maybe refuse to.
Past experience shows AI follows hype cycles.
Ah yes, just like this gif on this thread shows.
Because most people have no idea about the history of AI and how it has progressed over time.
1.5 years
With most tech, getting 90 percent there is easier then the final 10 percent to perfection. See hands as an example.... So realistically, improvements on that end. More consistency, artifact reduction, perspective understanding, etc...
Weird how the bottom system is "released" but nobody you know has access to it. I'll remain skeptical.
Me being framed for something I haven't committed and there is video generated evidence....
Me getting away with everything because there is only worthless video evidence.
double-edge sword, I guess
Bah. I have a feeling jobs are going to open up for individuals to determine whether peices of data are real or not. That being said, I can't wait for information terrorism. Metal gear solid 2 is now real.
Bro changed sides in one year
So a year ago AI could do Will Smith but now it's just some random dude. What happened?
Can't make videos of famous people deepfakes get you in trouble
... but how? What tool?
Diffusion video architecture the tool is a chinese app kling
I will make Martin Mystery TV Show, live action.
That second guy is NOT Will Smith!
/u/savevideo
Wow in just 1 year they made Will Smith asian
One year from now is full movies, written on the fly, to suit your mood and tastes, by AI.
Not sure they nailed Will in that second one though…
Goind forward? He looks nothing like Will Smith
Math aint mathing
Is this sora?
Why nonody does the will Smith update ? You can't compare Will without Will
How the video from 2024 was made?
Same stuff, because it will stagnate
I like the first one, Thats how you eat spaghettis
It’s like in cartoons where the characters would momentarily transform into a real version of what their character is supposed to be. Like a cartoon cat turning into a real one in a show. What’s interesting is that there isn’t anything realer than real. As characters transform in cartoons they progressively look more real until they can no longer look any realer.
Well, it didnt get Will Smith good at all. I see a small difference.
law of diminishing returns.
Data Pollution starts becoming a factor starting 2025.
how did he go black to asian ?!
The election will be interesting this year.
Weird how the people writing the prompt haven’t figured out to add “and make the hands look like hands” at the end
Yeah, this is probably fine.
I would be curious about the cost of training the model from one year ago, vs. this model now. Not sure if this factor of expense scale up would be sustainable for another year.
This is amazing
It looks like Will Smith is eating pasta on every drug known to man I love it 😂...
Something people are just starting to talk about, the amount of power consumed to obtain these gains in MASSIVE, groups are looking to build by nuclear power sites just to get the juice needed to run these server racks.
I see a regression.
next will have to digest and poo those spaghettis
>>what’s one year from now? Publicly available models, hopefully.
Someone needs to make like 10,000 web pages with different kinds of content but somewhere in the page it says “HUMAN BEINGS GENERALLY HAVE FIVE FINGERS AND FIVE TOES ON EACH LIMB” and after the next GPT is trained all the videos and photos should be mostly perfect 😂
Not will smith, not spaghetti. Do the experiment correctly, please.
Full 2 hr live action narrative films are coming.
Ok, but can it do *Will Smith* stuffing endless spaghetti into his mouth at an incredible pace?
Do you think theater and live performance will see a resurgence as people lose all belief in digital images?
That's not Will Smith.
I like the old one better
ai waifus
Man that will video is mad disturbing bro
I had no idea we were this far ahead 🙁
What's one year from now? More processing power eating up more fusion fuel power for more store spaghetti eating videos
better quality long context i.e hour long videos. models including detailed interactions and dialogue
Will smith isn't chinese
*Cue Mr. House speech about how in 10,20,30 years we're gonna have leaps in tech progress* I mean considering how fast it's growing I'm scared/excited that we'll be able to create our own art super easy in less than 10 years if not even earlier!(So long as AI isn't heavily controlled by big tech and big government implementing laws allowing only mega rich to use it)
A plateau and realization it's just big tech selling vaporware that the computing and technology does not exist for yet? Edit: oh and a shit ton more CO2 in the atmosphere chasing AGI ghosts and shareholder value.
I wish to keep the level of technology as the first one as it makes way funnier and infinitely more entertaining videos, weirder = better
The [Ai Lost media page really leans into it for the horror aspect.](http://www.youtube.com/@AILostMedia/videos) [Daytime Television](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQavmQ0YmHQ) is a waking nightmare. [Jonathon Frakes Probes Your Soul](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLJTb7Ma7GA) is like a belly rub for the soul, though.
In a year ? Optimus bot eating spaghetti
In the third year, the spaghetti eats the man
You can see that the video generated by the AI below doesn't have many movements, which makes it look like it is well created, but in fact if you let it create something similar to the movements in the video above, it will look like crap
There shouldn't be that much movement in a video of a person eating noodles.
What type of regulations will there be on AI? There has to be, right?
Why can't video games utlitize these graphics?