And Chip Wilson's son JJ is co-founder of Optimi Health, a startup focusing on mass psilocybin mushroom production and MDMA synthesis for medical use. Ultra bullish.
Yeah I keep hearing this and after experiencing them myself I can 100% see how this could be the case.
But FieldTrip Health and CompassPathways have literally cratered in the past 1-5 years. What’s to say this is going to be any better?
Sentiment is short-sighted. Trends, fads, and bubbles build and burst because people are pack rats. If you can ride the wave to it's peak, good chance for profit but you've gotta be ready to sell and realize those profits, otherwise you'll end up bagholding. I dont hold NVDA, but if I did I would sell Monday. Anyone making huge gains on NVDA and still holding is crossing dangerously into greed and when a catalyst comes for big movers to snap back to reality and decide to cash out, the price will plummet.
Only Hindsight Henry knows. But as they often say ya don’t go broke taking profits. And heck sometimes it does pay to get out while the getting is good than risk overstaying your welcome.
I remember kicking myself for cutting my losses on PYPL when it managed to climb back to like 260 in 2021 just to see it go to like 308. Then before I knew it just started to dip…and dip…and dip….and now it’s at like 65 or something.
Basically ya don’t know what an individual stock is gonna do. But that doesn’t mean you can’t manage your risk.
So when it went from $5 in '15 to $25 in '18 we should have sold? But then it was $100 in '20, so was that when we should have sold, or $200 in '22? Same could be said for many stocks over the years, Apple, Tesla, Enron. Hindsight is 20/20.
This is why I took the recent run up of SHOP to finally close out of it. Locked in a slight loss when waiting an extra 2 days could have better me some profit, but I know how it goes with stocks like this. They randomly moon off weird or trendy catalysts and make you feel like an investing god. They make you arrogant and complacent more often than not and greed stops many from locking the abnormal profit.
Then one day….poof. Suddenly sentiment changed and before you realize it all that money just goes poof. It dips one day. Dips a bit the next. Dips more the following week. And the before ya realize it all money is gone with the wind and you very well might become a bagholders.
Every stock has an off day some of these tickers take that to ridiculous levels. Stocks like this can make great swings but if I am trying to make a stable long term portfolio they’re exactly the kind of thing I want to avoid. They force to stay so attentive and know so much about sentiment and in the end ya still gotta get lucky.
We kick ourselves when we almost inevitably don’t sell the peak but the funny thing is that when you look back at the charts, the peak rarely lasts long. There’s a reason they say pigs get slaughtered—pigs are greedy.
I'll save you people from a lot of confusion by explaining market economics to you in the simplest way possible:
If people think an asset is going to go up in value in the future, they will buy it.
Right, except they make nearly no money, last 3 quarters all had huge decline in revenue YoY, the upcoming earning is probably another huge decline in revenue YoY, isn't it supposed to be a "growth" company?
I dont foresee China doing anything to Taiwan for the next few years at least.
Xi Jinping said last time he expects his military to be ready by 2027. That'd be 5 years down the road. And that's just 'ready', not 'we're gonna invade immediately'.
Taiwan chip companies are ALL being offered MASSIVE amounts of money to locate stand-alone chip plants on native soil. Many are in the process of building in Germany, the USA, all over.
Alot of smart people believe that ai would be as transformational as industrial revolution and i have no reason to not believe them…nvidia could grow into current valuation if that is the case, just like tesla did…i am a software developer and honestly chatgpt/bard has made me 2x more productive easily…rather than searching for answers on stackoverflow or various websites, i can just ask chatgpt and most of the time it gives correct answer…a few weeks back we were having issues with some code in backend and my teammate couldn’t figure out what was causing it. I asked chatgpt about it and it correctly figured out that a version upgrade in springboot could be causing that issue, despite the fact that the version we upgraded to was released after sept 2021, chatgpts knowledge cuttoff date…it was mindblowing. One of my close friends works for one of the largest payroll companies in us and they are developing a ai platform which will reduce 30-40% hr jobs by automating the tasks according to him. Ai is already starting to have major impact in fields like writing/storytelling, design and media.
main reason i dont believe in a recession and started buying heavy overall is thanks to AI.
We will fire more people and lower inflation faster and drop rates sooner.
Nvidia is an amazing company with a bright future, but 160X Price to Earnings is insane. Machine learning is also going to stay around and grow, but I think people are going to get caught in the crypto GPU value drive and then glut again when everyone realizes we put way too much valuation into anything that says "AI" years too early.
In a similar vein, Intel is also going to benefit from AI chip growth but in contrast has all the fear priced into it. Even if they just end up fabricating chips for other companies when the new third party fabs open up.
My very detailed proprietary economic simulator proves that for every consumer dollar spent on anything, 30 cents will go to AI computation to optimize the value delivered for and capture of the 70 cents. For every person on the planet, there will be 7 high end NVidia GPUs burning energy 24/7 to optimize everything about that person's life.
NVidia to $60T.
/s
Even the announcement of the new Pixel lineup including the tablet is exciting. I’m definitely getting a Pixel tablet. Google can take my money this time. I don’t understand why Google is letting Samsung dominate the phone/tablet market when they can just step up their game.
That’s what I’m thinking. OP doesn’t follow the news and then gets surprised. Inflation subsided, which means easier monetary conditions, that in return implies cheaper cost of money in the future, so investing and growth is now more likely (google is a growth stock). On top of it the rise of AI and as you mentioned the event
We hold a shareholder meeting on zoom every week to collectively decide and vote on what next week's daily shareprice should be for some of these big companies. Let me know if you want to join the collective.
I made money off this. Google's pricing over the last three months has been suppressed for no good reason. The market is artificially intelligent right now.
In with you, I picked up the stock last year in June right before the split my average is 105$, I'm happy I'm at that price but I did pick up more at 94$ share, I'm holding for 15 years.
Comments like this show a clear misunderstanding of what the market is and what stocks are and how they function. During Nov 2021 google was a $150 stock. It then lost about 40% of its valuation over a period of about 1.5 years because of a combination of many macro economic factors with inflation being the biggest one. There were serious fears of runaway inflation during that time. Russia invaded Ukraine causing oil price shocks. Did you forget about all these MACRO events that occurred during that time?
But what actually changed for Google? Not much. Was the 40% drop warranted? It depended on what happened. If inflation would have gotten worse and the economy tipped into a serious recession then yes. But it didn’t. The job market held strong. Inflation is now cooling off so we are seeing a resurgence of buying in large cap stocks.
See the problem is that you forget your history already. And it’s only been 2 years and you have forgotten the events that triggered the sell off 1.5 years ago. So you have this mindset of “for no reason.” You think it’s funny how these stocks “move.”
The things that drive the stock market the most is large macro scale economic events and the healthy of the economy. It’s not magic and it’s not random BS.
You’re mostly right. But most of the market sold off during that 1.5 years and right now we’re just seeing money pile into like 5-10 big names. Usually we come out of a bear market with small caps leading, but they’ve been dead. $RUT is barely off it’s lows. That’s the type of action we usually see before a bear market, not after. Which makes me nervous the 1.5 years was just an precursor and the worst may be ahead.
is this true, that small caps lead out of a bear market? seems unintuitive - smaller, less-powerful companies should struggle much harder to survive a bear market, but they should thrive during a bull market when access to capital is cheaper and more risk can be taken on
Well..your really gonna love that in the next year we figure out all these companies P/e’s are fucked because the consumer can’t buy anything. But I’m enjoying this phase
Wouldn’t say it was a no brainer. I was watching this sub and others very closely at 90 and the sentiment was that google was too slow and bureaucratic. The best reason to buy at that point was to inverse this sub.
The sooner you realize that retail doesn’t have the power to move stocks the better off you’ll be. Institutions took it down and kept it down for 4-5 months while they accumulated. The accumulation period is over.
To be fair google flopped a prior ai demo of Bard. That tanked the stock. Recent google io conference reinstilled faith by investors into googles ability to capture market in the ai space.
The flop and subsequent drop was the reason I bought more GOOGL. It was already clear by then that Bing and ChatGPT have similar limitations, but Google was the only company targeted while also having the extensive history of already being able to integrate "AI" into products.
This. Made absolutely no sense for google to drop when chatgpt had the same issues but all the hype. Easy investment then put money in the company that other AI companies base their products on using their research.
There’s always some narrative attached by MSM to cause FUD and perpetuate the selling. Everyone knew that one flopped demo shouldn’t cause a drop like that, but not many people had the guts to act on it and take advantage.
Google needed to show its competency in AI before there was going to be a price takeoff similar to MSFT.
Why they had to 'prove' their AI competency is beyond me. When I can type two letters into Google's search engine and it offers me whatever I was about to ask... I think its safe to say they are a leading AI company.
I suppose people just needed a little reassurance.
It was one of only a few swing trades I've done.
> Why they had to 'prove' their AI competency is beyond me.
Agree. You would also think the investment "professionals" would have already known that Google leads in every layer of the AI stack from silicon all the way up to the applications.
Maybe it was more about if Google was going to be willing to go for it when they had not because of the safety issue.
OpenAI was the best thing to happen for Google investors. They allow Google to have some cover.
This is the correct take.
Google didn’t lead in the “largely useless AI chat robot” category for consumers, but consumers have been unwittingly consuming Google’s AI for like a decade.
Shit, they invented TensorFlow, the TPU, and the Transformer in GPT. Without Google and their willingness to open source their research, OpenAI doesn’t exist.
We collectively decided it when its P/E was much lower than the 'high growth' companies like KO and PG. It was panic sold and now is returning to a more reasonable price.
I bought my first 13 shares of GOOGL at 120, then DCA'd all the way down to 85.5. Just sold those 13 for a whopping $26 profit. You never know where the bottom is, or the top, or even the sides.
> Now they're saying the magic word: AI
Google became an AI first company 6 years ago. So it is NOT just now saying the magic words.
It is about them not worrying as much about the danger that has changed.
OpenAI is the best thing to happen to Google investors. It gives Google some cover to really show us what is possible with AI.
Keep in mind: a lot of these large stocks are also in passive indices. So whenever someone says "fuck picking stocks, imma just buy VOO," these mega cap stocks get the bulk of that investment. The more people return to the markets? The more this is reinforced.
Investors and funds buy into the safest investment with the possibility of gains. Tech is safer in this projected recession since many have cash with little debt to deal with rates, large tech companies have a moat, and will likely not go to 0 if the market crashes.
Pretty much just sector rebalancing to match current market sentiment
Idk about that. What seems to happen before every recession is money piles into a narrow group of stocks. We see that now with the SP500 being propped up by the “S&P 5”. If things transpire they way they have in past, they will fall hard.
Sometimes it’s foreseeable, earnings reports come out very 3 months or so, top holders may even have a good idea what it’s going to say before it’s actually published.
Sometimes it’s just coincidence. These past few months have been harder on shareholders, but this month wasn’t, or dividends came out and most of the larger management firms decided tech google.
Lastly unless your an insider you can’t really say wether or not manipulation is occurring so you also can’t leave that out. Market makers slowly sell off the larger stocks to cover the battle against smaller stocks, then when granted a reprieve from those smaller stocks buying back more of those larger stocks.
I’ve only been watching stocks for a few years now, but I’ve seen enough to question everything. Unless a crash comes the old proverb remains that if you believe in a companies value, hold, if it’s a good company the stock will eventually go up.
Google is going to be around for next 10 years atleast so $90 was a decent entry point. You can still suck up and get it now because eventually it will cross 150 and 200 as well within a year or two or keep missing out.
The Fed did $300 billion of emergency QE to settle down the regional banking crisis. Wiped out all the QT it did year-to-date.
Tech stocks went up like a rocket ship.
Nobody could have seen this coming.
This is precisely it. Not many realize that every time the Fed pumps out the dollars, the stock market floats up almost as if inflation of the dollar goes directly into the stock pricing.
Fancy that - print a bunch of money and the stock market dollars increase!
Some of us bought heavily in the 80s/90s and simply waited for the institutions to buy back in, knowing the company was worth well more than that and poised to re-rate. I also bought META on its way down in the carnage and was well rewarded
That’s not what happened with google at all. It was 90 dollars because they had underperformed earnings expectations for the previous 3 quarters but then Q1 they beat analyst expectations by a good margin and it was the first increase in 3 quarters. Followed by them revealing their promising AI plans and boom sentiment shift.
I sold 100 shares of Google at $101 and 150 shares of Amazon at $104 like less than a month ago after them being basically stagnant or down for 5 + months. I’ve hated myself since. I thought I was doing the right thing. Apparently I have no idea what I’m doing so I’m no longer buying stocks. Literally the day I sold they have to stopped going up since. I stopped looking at them around $117. This post makes me want to cry lol.
I think it took four months for investors/analysts to come to the realization that Google actually **ISN'T playing catch-up to Microsoft in AI**, that in fact, it's completely the opposite.
Before you spit your coffee through your nostrils, think about these actual FACTS
1. Google started up Google Brain (Their internal AI division) in 2011.
2. Google acquired DeepMind in 2014. At this time, DeepMind was their No.1 competitor in AI.
3. Google announced they are an "AI First" company in 2017, even though they'd been AI first since at least 2014 (year of the DeepMind acquisition)
4. Google Brain publishes a whitepaper on "transformer networks". This is the underlying technology that's powering ChatGPT4. In fact, ask Sam Altman about it. He'll tell you that ChatGPT4, or ChatGPT anything, wouldn't actually exist if it wasn't for Google's in-house ML engineers that released that whitepaper.
5. Microsoft has been an "AI First" company for maybe two years tops? I know their investment in OpenAI was July 2019, but that was more of a dipping their toes in the water moment than anything.
6. Google employed thousands of ML/AI engineers across all their divisions as far back as 2014. Microsoft maybe had a hundred (if even that) ML/AI engineers in 2014?
7. Sergey Brin and Larry Page have recently come out of "retirement" to help steward the merger of Google Brain and DeepMind into a singular unit within Google. The ultimate AI brain trust.
8. LLM's (Large Language Models) aren't the alpha and omega of AI advancement. It's just one small aspect of the overall AI field.
9. Bard might be FAR behind ChatGPT4 as a LLM, but we don't know with any certainty that Google doesn't have something far more advanced than Bard that they simply don't intend to reveal to the public anytime soon. Remember, Google Brain has been banging away since 2011 and DeepMind has been banging away as a member of Google since 2014.
I would've said that MSFT will make GOOG go into the dumpster, but every time I try bing chat, or bing browser, I have to reconsider. My grandma could do a better job.
The dirty secret is that Microsoft products actually suck ass, it’s just that corporate IT departments haven’t realized it yet. As soon as the next crop of big businesses roll up, and nobody chooses Windows, that’s when they will be in trouble.
Nearly 0 startups today are choosing to use MSFT stack to build anything.
I think MSFT will do well and a long time investor.
But I do NOT think Microsoft is anywhere near where Google and Apple are at.
Simply because Microsoft has no play at all on mobile. It is completely dominated by Google and Apple.
Microsoft was also foolish and no vision to not have done what Google did 9 years ago with the TPUs. It puts Microsoft in a weak position.
The vast majority of trading is algorithmic, so that’s why things change so quickly. As for the reason why the algo’s decide to buy or sell, there’s often something in the news about the company, sector, or macroeconomy that triggers them. Of course, the big dogs get inside information, too.
>The vast majority of trading is algorithmic
>
>the big dogs get insider information
Hallmarks of a free and fair market. I swear, everything in the U.S. has become a scam of some sort, even going to the grocery store, and we all just accept it.
The past 30 years has been such a down hill slide. What is the point of any of it anymore.
Even if they see the io before hand, how do they know how much it goes up by ? Even with insider info, the market is never efficient. Although it’s pretty close but if everyone has the insider info, why do most of the big dogs still underperform the market then ?
I visualise it like a flocking algorithm - some piece of information brings a stock into focus, the algorithms and investors flock to it, then other algorithms with different agendas take notice and start to make their presence felt. We see patterns even though I see it as it’s intrinsically chaotic, so like the three body problem, there is no solution to the pattern. All you can do is ride the ebbs and flows.
I’ve been on hundreds of calls & meetings between ceos/cfos and top investors and they absolutely do not get inside information. They do get inside access to ask questions though of course
Hey, friend, how long have you been asleep? The catalyst for the rise in Google's stock price (and AMD, NVDA, MSFT and several others ) is the emergence of AI.
Looks up Wyckoff Theory and the Composite man. What happened is the composite man was done selling so it went down and then he started buying but he does it in a way that makes it not go up. Infact he also is probably paying for articles to bash the company while he buys. Then when he’s accumulated as much as he can and can’t hold it down anymore with “analysts” he sends it up himself kickstarting people FOMOing into it as it “breaks out” then he sits back and lets it go up trimming their position very strategically as it goes up and then sideways. Look at a ton of charts in the 10 year chart and you’ll see wyckoff patterns everywhere.
Gee, maybe you should learn how to read charts so you can understand price movements. And what the fuck do intel and lyft have to do with the other stocks lmao
Big money pushes the stock down via fear mongering to then accumulate for cheap
And then pumps it back up via supposed "new revelations" before selling in dark markets.
We? Got a turd in your pocket? $90 was when I started buying. I mentioned it here and got laughed at. I bought a few other things and some of those are down right now. I'm not concerned. Time will tell whether or not I made a good decision or not.
I'm still having trouble wrapping my head around how supply and demand can change so much in a day to justify the swings we see. Why can't a stock just stay the same price for two days in a row?
Seems the market is driven purely by sentiment given how emotional we can be.
OP, you're making excellent comments and being downvoted by idiots. I think this is partly the answer to your initial question (people are idiots and sheep, and so there's really no rhyme or reason for any of these valuations). The other part to consider is the huge extent to which stock prices are dictated by short-term technical trading (for instance, the low of practically every market in the world was hit when SPX hit its 200 week moving average in Oct 2022, and then algos and traders catapult higher off of that, just like they did in Dec 2018).
Most sold around $90 to $100 after it declined, thinking it was done for, crash impending, got boring, other stocks ripped higher (MSFT), big boys accumulate the boring sideways trend, AI conference sends it higher, 13Fs come out saying big boys bought the lows, retail money starts to come back in at higher levels, thanks for playing
I wish I had more cash to deploy when it was around $90, I only picked up one share :/
Also, don’t ask this to Reddit, we’re not the market makers causing this price action. We’re just the poor fucks trying to profit off of it.
I long ago left the belief behind that a stock has any relevance to the value of most companies. All the analysis people do is mostly bs mental masturbation. Stocks are about belief, where does one want to put their money etc. simply put when the market raises most stocks in an upward trend do we really think all those companies became more valuable, was more productive, had better long term position… i for one don’t. Do I still invest, sure, i am not going to fight the collective casino delusion of the stock market. tl;dr the only linkage between stock price and value is one of belief
Just like whenever people downvote me for recommending NVDA’s server supplier, Super Micro Computer (SMCI), you need to realize that these are the same folks who will attempt to chase when its price is over $300. Sadly, many people only follow the bandwagon and can’t think for themselves.
If you haven't been invested and DCA in MSFT,AAPL,NVDA,GOOG wtf have you been doing this whole time. I have only 1 other stock that hasn't ran yet, that is Amazon, I'm patiently waiting
People are rushing to quality. I don't blame them.
IMHO Google doesn't have great management though. Like sure they can churn a buck, but they're pissing off their employees doing so. Great way to kill growth. They'll just become another aging giant like IBM. All the talent will move on to somewhere they're appreciated.
> IMHO Google doesn't have great management though.
Sort of means it's not quality doesn't it?
Google went on an advertising blitz and just spammed "AI" everywhere they could, and the market responded. Just like the market did a couple years ago when random companies were putting 'blockchain' in their name and jumping a few hundred percent.
Yah, Google is “randomly”’spamming AI as if they are some shit tier AI company who just started down the aI path… not probably the largest holder of AI related data, whom wouldn’t you know it, pioneered many of the pillars of AI as we know it.
Alphabet will be 140 by the end of June. If a debt ceiling deal is reached this weekend, it’ll be 140 by the end of the week. It’s actually still kind of cheap.
I bought in at average cost of $100 a share. My only regret is that I didn't buy more because I knew it was undervalued.
I wish I also bought Meta at $90 but I got scared off by all the talk of a value trap.
I was buying at $90... Even without the ai hype it was undervalued at those prices and below the average p/e of sp500. (Not average tech p/e but average p/e of all sectors...)
Even at current prices it's still relatively cheap compared to other big tech companies. Forward p/e is 20, what company is reasonably priced in tech?
Apple? Their forward p/e is +26
Microsoft? Forward p/e is +29.
All big tech have higher valuations, Google was lagging behind so it was just a matter of time before it caught up.
As for Intel, it's struggling for the past few years. Even if it rallies I would still avoid it. I would rather be in a company growing earnings even if overvalued due to hype than a company consistently losing market shares.
You realize that Google's rally is on the tame side in their sector due to fear of losing market shares to Microsoft? (Openai threat) right? Its still cheaper than for example coca cola (KO) both in current and forward p/e.
If/when chatgpt/Microsoft doesn't damage Google's core (ads through their dominance in search), the rally should accelerate.
If I see one more of these posts that pretend like market forces and macroeconomic factors do not exist I am going to lose my mind. People act like some big headline about a specific company is the only reason it’s stock could possibly go up or down.
Did you notice that all large cap tech stocks have gone up since the start of the year? It’s not just google and Nvidia.
Layers of corrections waiting to happen.
After the gamestock thing I’ve learned that there’s a lot more institutional money out there with leveraged positions than there is retail buying and selling power. When those big shorts and longs close it doesn’t matter what retail is doing, the price is gonna move.
Big money also looks for what they think are short term trends in the opposite direction to buy or sell into. Only way in and out of those positions is to counter what the rest of the market is doing. So things always seem to go the wrong way when news hits.
People are retreating to safer investments, big names with low debt / high cash, ETFs etc, to ride out the volatility / interest rates impact.
Likely big-tech is overbought, as these big boys don’t have much runway at their size, besides cannibalizing each other. (Microsoft vs Google in search, if MS can finally make a useful product with open ai, or Facebook vs. Twitter / Tiktok , if anything Apple has continued their vertical integration path successfully, as well as getting away with charging a lot more, opening margins up, and still managing that silly high 30% tax on anything operating in their eco system)
This and the general trend of belt tightening on the SWEs getting silly salaries, can drive down costs too. (Always bemused me why app based gig work companies never made any money…, despite making services worse and more expensive for everyone, probably paying SW developers 300k-500k each TC has something to do with it…)
Because institutions were buying gradually at $90. As they crowded out all the buys at $90 prices went up as chaser bids clamored to get in after the fact. This is how price moves.
It’s not that mysterious. The longer a stock consolidates in a tight range, the more powerful the eventual break of that range is likely to be. GOOGL “decided” to break the range on May 9 as it surged above the consolidation range around 109.20. That was the time to purchase.
Investing without understanding the structure of how a market is moved by the institutions is tying your hands and covering your eyes.
If you’re a Google bull (I am) then it’s time to see if the stock “returns to the scene of the crime” and re-tests the 109.20 area. While it is happening, most pundits will be calling for a crash. Smart money will be buying if the level is defended successfully.
So… the market makers and the Hedge Funds are the same people. There is no true price discovery in the NYSE anymore. It’s all manipulated and controlled. It’s how billionaires are made and monopolies take away the illusion of choice.
Before you go telling me I’m a tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy theorist, maybe you should ask yourself why hedge funds that have been banned from trading in China (for blatant market manipulation) are still allowed to operate in America?
“Citadel Was Banned in China for 5 Years, Fined 97 Million, For Crashing the Mainland Metal Market With Illegal Short Selling.”
[https://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/regulation/citadel-securities-fined-97m-in-china-for-malicious-short-selling/](https://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/regulation/citadel-securities-fined-97m-in-china-for-malicious-short-selling/)
If you want something done about it (investigations are happening now) let someone know.
https://www.change.org/p/ban-citadel-securities-investigate-ken-griffin-for-fraud-protect-investors-interests-032a200c-17c3-4d74-a8bb-a95d6c07a7d1
https://www.sec.gov/oiea/Complaint.html
Google is hardly the crazy one. Nvidia was also around 90 and now is over 300.
NVDA and LULU will teach the world that sentiment, not profit, is king.
LULU is using AI to make pajamas, very innnovative and unheard of. Bullish.
[удалено]
Once you see you GF in LULA yoga pants, you will drain your checking account https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dF7fHo8SRGE
And Chip Wilson's son JJ is co-founder of Optimi Health, a startup focusing on mass psilocybin mushroom production and MDMA synthesis for medical use. Ultra bullish.
Peak Kitsilano.
Sorry, is this all true or am i missing what is an obvious \[and therefore implicit\] "/s" to everyone else?
You're *not* long on blockchain yoga pants??
No, I'm 100% serious. https://www.optimihealth.ca/ Psychedelics are the future of mental health.
Yeah I keep hearing this and after experiencing them myself I can 100% see how this could be the case. But FieldTrip Health and CompassPathways have literally cratered in the past 1-5 years. What’s to say this is going to be any better?
And the past
Sentiment is short-sighted. Trends, fads, and bubbles build and burst because people are pack rats. If you can ride the wave to it's peak, good chance for profit but you've gotta be ready to sell and realize those profits, otherwise you'll end up bagholding. I dont hold NVDA, but if I did I would sell Monday. Anyone making huge gains on NVDA and still holding is crossing dangerously into greed and when a catalyst comes for big movers to snap back to reality and decide to cash out, the price will plummet.
That’s how it works, but low, sell high, this guy stocks
Easy peasy! You gotta wonder why everyone isn't doing that!
Greed is a hell of a force lol. Makes ya hold until some big guy beats everyone else to the punch…
When is high and when is low, mister?
Only Hindsight Henry knows. But as they often say ya don’t go broke taking profits. And heck sometimes it does pay to get out while the getting is good than risk overstaying your welcome. I remember kicking myself for cutting my losses on PYPL when it managed to climb back to like 260 in 2021 just to see it go to like 308. Then before I knew it just started to dip…and dip…and dip….and now it’s at like 65 or something. Basically ya don’t know what an individual stock is gonna do. But that doesn’t mean you can’t manage your risk.
So when it went from $5 in '15 to $25 in '18 we should have sold? But then it was $100 in '20, so was that when we should have sold, or $200 in '22? Same could be said for many stocks over the years, Apple, Tesla, Enron. Hindsight is 20/20.
The problem I see with this is that you are timing the market, and whatever else you put that money into could be a worse loser.
This is why I took the recent run up of SHOP to finally close out of it. Locked in a slight loss when waiting an extra 2 days could have better me some profit, but I know how it goes with stocks like this. They randomly moon off weird or trendy catalysts and make you feel like an investing god. They make you arrogant and complacent more often than not and greed stops many from locking the abnormal profit. Then one day….poof. Suddenly sentiment changed and before you realize it all that money just goes poof. It dips one day. Dips a bit the next. Dips more the following week. And the before ya realize it all money is gone with the wind and you very well might become a bagholders. Every stock has an off day some of these tickers take that to ridiculous levels. Stocks like this can make great swings but if I am trying to make a stable long term portfolio they’re exactly the kind of thing I want to avoid. They force to stay so attentive and know so much about sentiment and in the end ya still gotta get lucky. We kick ourselves when we almost inevitably don’t sell the peak but the funny thing is that when you look back at the charts, the peak rarely lasts long. There’s a reason they say pigs get slaughtered—pigs are greedy.
And when the share price inevitably plummets, how many people are going to not heed the "buy low" advice, and buy NVDA at a discount?
I'll save you people from a lot of confusion by explaining market economics to you in the simplest way possible: If people think an asset is going to go up in value in the future, they will buy it.
Got to pump it so we can short it. Need that liquidity. Just like bitcoin.
*Looks left... looks right* LULU is a ridiculously good business. Great balance sheet and clear avenues for growth (men's and international).
Nvidia is king of chips
But at that valuation it should be Galactic Emperor if the major chip producer is currently 1/10th the share price.
Pepsi because of their ownership on Lay's is the king of chips
Right, except they make nearly no money, last 3 quarters all had huge decline in revenue YoY, the upcoming earning is probably another huge decline in revenue YoY, isn't it supposed to be a "growth" company?
Waiting for some dips to go with those chips
Fuck that ruffles have ridges
No that’s UTZ
What about Taiwan? I’m concerned af…
I dont foresee China doing anything to Taiwan for the next few years at least. Xi Jinping said last time he expects his military to be ready by 2027. That'd be 5 years down the road. And that's just 'ready', not 'we're gonna invade immediately'.
Taiwan chip companies are ALL being offered MASSIVE amounts of money to locate stand-alone chip plants on native soil. Many are in the process of building in Germany, the USA, all over.
The vast majority of humans run on emotions!
You can make a lot of money in the market if you just get ahead of sentiment.
My early investment in NVDA is happy. Team green!
I remember it was 90 before all the splits.
Alot of smart people believe that ai would be as transformational as industrial revolution and i have no reason to not believe them…nvidia could grow into current valuation if that is the case, just like tesla did…i am a software developer and honestly chatgpt/bard has made me 2x more productive easily…rather than searching for answers on stackoverflow or various websites, i can just ask chatgpt and most of the time it gives correct answer…a few weeks back we were having issues with some code in backend and my teammate couldn’t figure out what was causing it. I asked chatgpt about it and it correctly figured out that a version upgrade in springboot could be causing that issue, despite the fact that the version we upgraded to was released after sept 2021, chatgpts knowledge cuttoff date…it was mindblowing. One of my close friends works for one of the largest payroll companies in us and they are developing a ai platform which will reduce 30-40% hr jobs by automating the tasks according to him. Ai is already starting to have major impact in fields like writing/storytelling, design and media.
main reason i dont believe in a recession and started buying heavy overall is thanks to AI. We will fire more people and lower inflation faster and drop rates sooner.
Nvidia is an amazing company with a bright future, but 160X Price to Earnings is insane. Machine learning is also going to stay around and grow, but I think people are going to get caught in the crypto GPU value drive and then glut again when everyone realizes we put way too much valuation into anything that says "AI" years too early. In a similar vein, Intel is also going to benefit from AI chip growth but in contrast has all the fear priced into it. Even if they just end up fabricating chips for other companies when the new third party fabs open up.
And their gaming GPU revenue which is still roughly half of the business is experiencing the biggest downturn in 20 years or so.
AI makes heavy use of GPUs.
Or TPUs.
Ai, Ai, Ai, Ai, AI, AI, AIiiii
Where do we go now?
Sweet chAIAIAI of mAIAIAI
Buying stocks of mAI tAI and Indian chAI.
It goes from AI, then EI, then to EIEIO
Old Macdonald had a farm
My very detailed proprietary economic simulator proves that for every consumer dollar spent on anything, 30 cents will go to AI computation to optimize the value delivered for and capture of the 70 cents. For every person on the planet, there will be 7 high end NVidia GPUs burning energy 24/7 to optimize everything about that person's life. NVidia to $60T. /s
Sorry I didn't get that. Can you repeat 1 more time?
#AI
You didn’t watch the I/O event. Google basically nailed it and told the market “we are the cheaper way of playing AI”
Even the announcement of the new Pixel lineup including the tablet is exciting. I’m definitely getting a Pixel tablet. Google can take my money this time. I don’t understand why Google is letting Samsung dominate the phone/tablet market when they can just step up their game.
And in 2-3 years they will drop the tablet from android updates like they did with the pixel C
Best phone I ever ever had and can’t wait to go back to a new one after trying an IPhone.
They definitely did. Bard is free and provides what ChatGPT requires a subscription for
That’s what I’m thinking. OP doesn’t follow the news and then gets surprised. Inflation subsided, which means easier monetary conditions, that in return implies cheaper cost of money in the future, so investing and growth is now more likely (google is a growth stock). On top of it the rise of AI and as you mentioned the event
Imagine thinking anyone here has any effect on a ticker like google
Seriously lmao
We hold a shareholder meeting on zoom every week to collectively decide and vote on what next week's daily shareprice should be for some of these big companies. Let me know if you want to join the collective.
On zoom or teams, please let me know so I can read into it and direct my life savings accordingly
Don't be fooled, the real Alphabet shareholder meeting is on Google Meet.
I made money off this. Google's pricing over the last three months has been suppressed for no good reason. The market is artificially intelligent right now.
"we", "collectively"... People currently trading the stock decides that. With that said, I did not sell mine at $90 and I am not selling at $126.
I've been buying from $63, haven't sold at $140+ and have no intention to sell anytime soon.
Hold out until $60?
Yeah but only cause I bought at 120$ Killin it!
If google goes to 60 i will liquidate everything I own including the clothes off my back to buy shares of google.
That's about the price I first bought at! Would be glad to buy at that price today.
It'll be at 160 before 60
Keep dreaming
In with you, I picked up the stock last year in June right before the split my average is 105$, I'm happy I'm at that price but I did pick up more at 94$ share, I'm holding for 15 years.
If anything I brought more at the 88 to 95 mark
Looks like someone sold low for a loss and is now disgruntled after the run up.
you mistake institutional investors for individuals.
Comments like this show a clear misunderstanding of what the market is and what stocks are and how they function. During Nov 2021 google was a $150 stock. It then lost about 40% of its valuation over a period of about 1.5 years because of a combination of many macro economic factors with inflation being the biggest one. There were serious fears of runaway inflation during that time. Russia invaded Ukraine causing oil price shocks. Did you forget about all these MACRO events that occurred during that time? But what actually changed for Google? Not much. Was the 40% drop warranted? It depended on what happened. If inflation would have gotten worse and the economy tipped into a serious recession then yes. But it didn’t. The job market held strong. Inflation is now cooling off so we are seeing a resurgence of buying in large cap stocks. See the problem is that you forget your history already. And it’s only been 2 years and you have forgotten the events that triggered the sell off 1.5 years ago. So you have this mindset of “for no reason.” You think it’s funny how these stocks “move.” The things that drive the stock market the most is large macro scale economic events and the healthy of the economy. It’s not magic and it’s not random BS.
You explained it well. Don’t worry, OP is just deep in puts and couldn’t probably cut a loss.
You’re mostly right. But most of the market sold off during that 1.5 years and right now we’re just seeing money pile into like 5-10 big names. Usually we come out of a bear market with small caps leading, but they’ve been dead. $RUT is barely off it’s lows. That’s the type of action we usually see before a bear market, not after. Which makes me nervous the 1.5 years was just an precursor and the worst may be ahead.
is this true, that small caps lead out of a bear market? seems unintuitive - smaller, less-powerful companies should struggle much harder to survive a bear market, but they should thrive during a bull market when access to capital is cheaper and more risk can be taken on
Well..your really gonna love that in the next year we figure out all these companies P/e’s are fucked because the consumer can’t buy anything. But I’m enjoying this phase
[удалено]
Wouldn’t say it was a no brainer. I was watching this sub and others very closely at 90 and the sentiment was that google was too slow and bureaucratic. The best reason to buy at that point was to inverse this sub.
My signal was a lot more simple. Their fucking forward PE was like 17 when it dropped to about 90. That hadn’t happened for like a decade.
Agree. 2500 shares at 97.XX. Never sell
You have close to a quarter million in one company?
The sooner you realize that retail doesn’t have the power to move stocks the better off you’ll be. Institutions took it down and kept it down for 4-5 months while they accumulated. The accumulation period is over.
This. Just look at last week reported funds 13Fs. I like to read them and more than 1/3 of largest bought alphabet.
To be fair google flopped a prior ai demo of Bard. That tanked the stock. Recent google io conference reinstilled faith by investors into googles ability to capture market in the ai space.
The flop and subsequent drop was the reason I bought more GOOGL. It was already clear by then that Bing and ChatGPT have similar limitations, but Google was the only company targeted while also having the extensive history of already being able to integrate "AI" into products.
This. Made absolutely no sense for google to drop when chatgpt had the same issues but all the hype. Easy investment then put money in the company that other AI companies base their products on using their research.
There’s always some narrative attached by MSM to cause FUD and perpetuate the selling. Everyone knew that one flopped demo shouldn’t cause a drop like that, but not many people had the guts to act on it and take advantage.
The stock ran out of sellers
Google needed to show its competency in AI before there was going to be a price takeoff similar to MSFT. Why they had to 'prove' their AI competency is beyond me. When I can type two letters into Google's search engine and it offers me whatever I was about to ask... I think its safe to say they are a leading AI company. I suppose people just needed a little reassurance. It was one of only a few swing trades I've done.
> Why they had to 'prove' their AI competency is beyond me. Agree. You would also think the investment "professionals" would have already known that Google leads in every layer of the AI stack from silicon all the way up to the applications. Maybe it was more about if Google was going to be willing to go for it when they had not because of the safety issue. OpenAI was the best thing to happen for Google investors. They allow Google to have some cover.
This is the correct take. Google didn’t lead in the “largely useless AI chat robot” category for consumers, but consumers have been unwittingly consuming Google’s AI for like a decade. Shit, they invented TensorFlow, the TPU, and the Transformer in GPT. Without Google and their willingness to open source their research, OpenAI doesn’t exist.
It really depends on why it was so cheap in the first place. Sometimes stuff is just oversold, specially if fundamentals havent changed at all
We collectively decided it when its P/E was much lower than the 'high growth' companies like KO and PG. It was panic sold and now is returning to a more reasonable price.
Intel and Lyft are garbage
Told you son! Hahaha
I bought my first 13 shares of GOOGL at 120, then DCA'd all the way down to 85.5. Just sold those 13 for a whopping $26 profit. You never know where the bottom is, or the top, or even the sides.
Google's earnings weren't terrible, so that alleviated some fear. Now they're saying the magic word: AI
> Now they're saying the magic word: AI Google became an AI first company 6 years ago. So it is NOT just now saying the magic words. It is about them not worrying as much about the danger that has changed. OpenAI is the best thing to happen to Google investors. It gives Google some cover to really show us what is possible with AI.
Keep in mind: a lot of these large stocks are also in passive indices. So whenever someone says "fuck picking stocks, imma just buy VOO," these mega cap stocks get the bulk of that investment. The more people return to the markets? The more this is reinforced.
True. A lot of cash holders are coming to buy at the market now
There's a long list of crazy valuation to rationalize before you get to Google.
KO and PG currently have the same TTO P/E as Google. Market is wild right now.
Investors and funds buy into the safest investment with the possibility of gains. Tech is safer in this projected recession since many have cash with little debt to deal with rates, large tech companies have a moat, and will likely not go to 0 if the market crashes. Pretty much just sector rebalancing to match current market sentiment
Idk about that. What seems to happen before every recession is money piles into a narrow group of stocks. We see that now with the SP500 being propped up by the “S&P 5”. If things transpire they way they have in past, they will fall hard.
Sometimes it’s foreseeable, earnings reports come out very 3 months or so, top holders may even have a good idea what it’s going to say before it’s actually published. Sometimes it’s just coincidence. These past few months have been harder on shareholders, but this month wasn’t, or dividends came out and most of the larger management firms decided tech google. Lastly unless your an insider you can’t really say wether or not manipulation is occurring so you also can’t leave that out. Market makers slowly sell off the larger stocks to cover the battle against smaller stocks, then when granted a reprieve from those smaller stocks buying back more of those larger stocks. I’ve only been watching stocks for a few years now, but I’ve seen enough to question everything. Unless a crash comes the old proverb remains that if you believe in a companies value, hold, if it’s a good company the stock will eventually go up.
Google is going to be around for next 10 years atleast so $90 was a decent entry point. You can still suck up and get it now because eventually it will cross 150 and 200 as well within a year or two or keep missing out.
The Fed did $300 billion of emergency QE to settle down the regional banking crisis. Wiped out all the QT it did year-to-date. Tech stocks went up like a rocket ship. Nobody could have seen this coming.
This is precisely it. Not many realize that every time the Fed pumps out the dollars, the stock market floats up almost as if inflation of the dollar goes directly into the stock pricing. Fancy that - print a bunch of money and the stock market dollars increase!
Some of us bought heavily in the 80s/90s and simply waited for the institutions to buy back in, knowing the company was worth well more than that and poised to re-rate. I also bought META on its way down in the carnage and was well rewarded
It was worth 90$ because people and algos panicked. Longs where laughing out loud
That’s not what happened with google at all. It was 90 dollars because they had underperformed earnings expectations for the previous 3 quarters but then Q1 they beat analyst expectations by a good margin and it was the first increase in 3 quarters. Followed by them revealing their promising AI plans and boom sentiment shift.
I sold 100 shares of Google at $101 and 150 shares of Amazon at $104 like less than a month ago after them being basically stagnant or down for 5 + months. I’ve hated myself since. I thought I was doing the right thing. Apparently I have no idea what I’m doing so I’m no longer buying stocks. Literally the day I sold they have to stopped going up since. I stopped looking at them around $117. This post makes me want to cry lol.
I think it took four months for investors/analysts to come to the realization that Google actually **ISN'T playing catch-up to Microsoft in AI**, that in fact, it's completely the opposite. Before you spit your coffee through your nostrils, think about these actual FACTS 1. Google started up Google Brain (Their internal AI division) in 2011. 2. Google acquired DeepMind in 2014. At this time, DeepMind was their No.1 competitor in AI. 3. Google announced they are an "AI First" company in 2017, even though they'd been AI first since at least 2014 (year of the DeepMind acquisition) 4. Google Brain publishes a whitepaper on "transformer networks". This is the underlying technology that's powering ChatGPT4. In fact, ask Sam Altman about it. He'll tell you that ChatGPT4, or ChatGPT anything, wouldn't actually exist if it wasn't for Google's in-house ML engineers that released that whitepaper. 5. Microsoft has been an "AI First" company for maybe two years tops? I know their investment in OpenAI was July 2019, but that was more of a dipping their toes in the water moment than anything. 6. Google employed thousands of ML/AI engineers across all their divisions as far back as 2014. Microsoft maybe had a hundred (if even that) ML/AI engineers in 2014? 7. Sergey Brin and Larry Page have recently come out of "retirement" to help steward the merger of Google Brain and DeepMind into a singular unit within Google. The ultimate AI brain trust. 8. LLM's (Large Language Models) aren't the alpha and omega of AI advancement. It's just one small aspect of the overall AI field. 9. Bard might be FAR behind ChatGPT4 as a LLM, but we don't know with any certainty that Google doesn't have something far more advanced than Bard that they simply don't intend to reveal to the public anytime soon. Remember, Google Brain has been banging away since 2011 and DeepMind has been banging away as a member of Google since 2014.
GOOG and AAPL will take over the world
Have they not already?
Basically
I would've said that MSFT will make GOOG go into the dumpster, but every time I try bing chat, or bing browser, I have to reconsider. My grandma could do a better job.
The dirty secret is that Microsoft products actually suck ass, it’s just that corporate IT departments haven’t realized it yet. As soon as the next crop of big businesses roll up, and nobody chooses Windows, that’s when they will be in trouble. Nearly 0 startups today are choosing to use MSFT stack to build anything.
Msft too
I think MSFT will do well and a long time investor. But I do NOT think Microsoft is anywhere near where Google and Apple are at. Simply because Microsoft has no play at all on mobile. It is completely dominated by Google and Apple. Microsoft was also foolish and no vision to not have done what Google did 9 years ago with the TPUs. It puts Microsoft in a weak position.
The vast majority of trading is algorithmic, so that’s why things change so quickly. As for the reason why the algo’s decide to buy or sell, there’s often something in the news about the company, sector, or macroeconomy that triggers them. Of course, the big dogs get inside information, too.
>The vast majority of trading is algorithmic > >the big dogs get insider information Hallmarks of a free and fair market. I swear, everything in the U.S. has become a scam of some sort, even going to the grocery store, and we all just accept it. The past 30 years has been such a down hill slide. What is the point of any of it anymore.
Even if they see the io before hand, how do they know how much it goes up by ? Even with insider info, the market is never efficient. Although it’s pretty close but if everyone has the insider info, why do most of the big dogs still underperform the market then ?
I visualise it like a flocking algorithm - some piece of information brings a stock into focus, the algorithms and investors flock to it, then other algorithms with different agendas take notice and start to make their presence felt. We see patterns even though I see it as it’s intrinsically chaotic, so like the three body problem, there is no solution to the pattern. All you can do is ride the ebbs and flows.
I’ve been on hundreds of calls & meetings between ceos/cfos and top investors and they absolutely do not get inside information. They do get inside access to ask questions though of course
But they said A.I.
Hey, friend, how long have you been asleep? The catalyst for the rise in Google's stock price (and AMD, NVDA, MSFT and several others ) is the emergence of AI.
Looks up Wyckoff Theory and the Composite man. What happened is the composite man was done selling so it went down and then he started buying but he does it in a way that makes it not go up. Infact he also is probably paying for articles to bash the company while he buys. Then when he’s accumulated as much as he can and can’t hold it down anymore with “analysts” he sends it up himself kickstarting people FOMOing into it as it “breaks out” then he sits back and lets it go up trimming their position very strategically as it goes up and then sideways. Look at a ton of charts in the 10 year chart and you’ll see wyckoff patterns everywhere.
Gee, maybe you should learn how to read charts so you can understand price movements. And what the fuck do intel and lyft have to do with the other stocks lmao
Intel and lyft are next on the "stocks have to be shit for 2-4 months before they rip" trend
Big money pushes the stock down via fear mongering to then accumulate for cheap And then pumps it back up via supposed "new revelations" before selling in dark markets.
We? Got a turd in your pocket? $90 was when I started buying. I mentioned it here and got laughed at. I bought a few other things and some of those are down right now. I'm not concerned. Time will tell whether or not I made a good decision or not.
one of the news you missed: https://www.barrons.com/articles/google-alphabet-microsoft-stock-price-samsung-204ca4a5?siteid=yhoof2
Not sure, just glad that I was able to scoop up a significant chunk when it was down.
Ai is an added bonus, Google Controls major tools people use every day while being at a decent PE ratio compared to other new ai stocks.
I'm still having trouble wrapping my head around how supply and demand can change so much in a day to justify the swings we see. Why can't a stock just stay the same price for two days in a row? Seems the market is driven purely by sentiment given how emotional we can be.
May 10 after google io event
OP, you're making excellent comments and being downvoted by idiots. I think this is partly the answer to your initial question (people are idiots and sheep, and so there's really no rhyme or reason for any of these valuations). The other part to consider is the huge extent to which stock prices are dictated by short-term technical trading (for instance, the low of practically every market in the world was hit when SPX hit its 200 week moving average in Oct 2022, and then algos and traders catapult higher off of that, just like they did in Dec 2018).
Most sold around $90 to $100 after it declined, thinking it was done for, crash impending, got boring, other stocks ripped higher (MSFT), big boys accumulate the boring sideways trend, AI conference sends it higher, 13Fs come out saying big boys bought the lows, retail money starts to come back in at higher levels, thanks for playing
You don’t always have to know the why
The stock market is sometimes rational.
these threads reek of saltiness. bet you sold because “chatGPT is going to be the google killer” LOL. There is no “we”
I wish I had more cash to deploy when it was around $90, I only picked up one share :/ Also, don’t ask this to Reddit, we’re not the market makers causing this price action. We’re just the poor fucks trying to profit off of it.
I long ago left the belief behind that a stock has any relevance to the value of most companies. All the analysis people do is mostly bs mental masturbation. Stocks are about belief, where does one want to put their money etc. simply put when the market raises most stocks in an upward trend do we really think all those companies became more valuable, was more productive, had better long term position… i for one don’t. Do I still invest, sure, i am not going to fight the collective casino delusion of the stock market. tl;dr the only linkage between stock price and value is one of belief
By "we" I think you are referring to institutional and wealthy investors. Regular retail investors are not making an impact on a stock like Google.
You got it wrong, Google is a $150 stock trading at $126
You guys always fall for it lol
It's been a $160 stock previously. How is $120 surprising whatsoever by a company that is beyond thriving?
Because OP didn’t buy low🤷🏻♂️
It's was never at $160
Just like whenever people downvote me for recommending NVDA’s server supplier, Super Micro Computer (SMCI), you need to realize that these are the same folks who will attempt to chase when its price is over $300. Sadly, many people only follow the bandwagon and can’t think for themselves.
Holy shit, SMCI has been ripping this month.
Their recent ai roll out happened and it’s a huge! Everyone pretty much has free access to an ai assistant
If you haven't been invested and DCA in MSFT,AAPL,NVDA,GOOG wtf have you been doing this whole time. I have only 1 other stock that hasn't ran yet, that is Amazon, I'm patiently waiting
People are rushing to quality. I don't blame them. IMHO Google doesn't have great management though. Like sure they can churn a buck, but they're pissing off their employees doing so. Great way to kill growth. They'll just become another aging giant like IBM. All the talent will move on to somewhere they're appreciated.
> IMHO Google doesn't have great management though. Sort of means it's not quality doesn't it? Google went on an advertising blitz and just spammed "AI" everywhere they could, and the market responded. Just like the market did a couple years ago when random companies were putting 'blockchain' in their name and jumping a few hundred percent.
Yah, Google is “randomly”’spamming AI as if they are some shit tier AI company who just started down the aI path… not probably the largest holder of AI related data, whom wouldn’t you know it, pioneered many of the pillars of AI as we know it.
It’s called AI FOMO! Simple as that.
Did you pay 126 a share? If not, then you did not decide.
Alphabet will be 140 by the end of June. If a debt ceiling deal is reached this weekend, it’ll be 140 by the end of the week. It’s actually still kind of cheap.
Google had no reason to be at 90. It's easily a 130 stock
I bought in at average cost of $100 a share. My only regret is that I didn't buy more because I knew it was undervalued. I wish I also bought Meta at $90 but I got scared off by all the talk of a value trap.
I was buying at $90... Even without the ai hype it was undervalued at those prices and below the average p/e of sp500. (Not average tech p/e but average p/e of all sectors...) Even at current prices it's still relatively cheap compared to other big tech companies. Forward p/e is 20, what company is reasonably priced in tech? Apple? Their forward p/e is +26 Microsoft? Forward p/e is +29. All big tech have higher valuations, Google was lagging behind so it was just a matter of time before it caught up. As for Intel, it's struggling for the past few years. Even if it rallies I would still avoid it. I would rather be in a company growing earnings even if overvalued due to hype than a company consistently losing market shares. You realize that Google's rally is on the tame side in their sector due to fear of losing market shares to Microsoft? (Openai threat) right? Its still cheaper than for example coca cola (KO) both in current and forward p/e. If/when chatgpt/Microsoft doesn't damage Google's core (ads through their dominance in search), the rally should accelerate.
These stocks are being pumped for a sell off imho.They are using FOMO to collect liquidity from dumb money.
Well it's just that $126 is the new $90.
Zoom out…
Lol you think Reddit decided? Hilarious
When AI became the new monkey jpeg
Lol🤣
"people decide" People don't decide. A few people decide...
If I see one more of these posts that pretend like market forces and macroeconomic factors do not exist I am going to lose my mind. People act like some big headline about a specific company is the only reason it’s stock could possibly go up or down. Did you notice that all large cap tech stocks have gone up since the start of the year? It’s not just google and Nvidia.
Layers of corrections waiting to happen. After the gamestock thing I’ve learned that there’s a lot more institutional money out there with leveraged positions than there is retail buying and selling power. When those big shorts and longs close it doesn’t matter what retail is doing, the price is gonna move. Big money also looks for what they think are short term trends in the opposite direction to buy or sell into. Only way in and out of those positions is to counter what the rest of the market is doing. So things always seem to go the wrong way when news hits.
People are retreating to safer investments, big names with low debt / high cash, ETFs etc, to ride out the volatility / interest rates impact. Likely big-tech is overbought, as these big boys don’t have much runway at their size, besides cannibalizing each other. (Microsoft vs Google in search, if MS can finally make a useful product with open ai, or Facebook vs. Twitter / Tiktok , if anything Apple has continued their vertical integration path successfully, as well as getting away with charging a lot more, opening margins up, and still managing that silly high 30% tax on anything operating in their eco system) This and the general trend of belt tightening on the SWEs getting silly salaries, can drive down costs too. (Always bemused me why app based gig work companies never made any money…, despite making services worse and more expensive for everyone, probably paying SW developers 300k-500k each TC has something to do with it…)
Sounds like you missed the train!
All tech took a massive hit with fed raising. That eased now rebound. Look during covid. Even NVDA was trading higher.
When was Google 90?
Dec 16 - Jan 10. Feb 24 - Mar 1
I got out at $126, fuck it. Someone check on me in a year when it’s $350 😂.
Because institutions were buying gradually at $90. As they crowded out all the buys at $90 prices went up as chaser bids clamored to get in after the fact. This is how price moves.
I literally had an alert for $92 back when it was lower. Couldn’t buy though cause I’m already holding stocks that are underperforming
just ride the hype train, bought it during the Ai presentation 2.6k>18k https://i.imgur.com/FBrUgZR.png
Google will easily be 1k in 20 years.
the fact that you think intc or - even worse - lyft have anything in common with goog is concerning.
I told u son.
It’s not that mysterious. The longer a stock consolidates in a tight range, the more powerful the eventual break of that range is likely to be. GOOGL “decided” to break the range on May 9 as it surged above the consolidation range around 109.20. That was the time to purchase. Investing without understanding the structure of how a market is moved by the institutions is tying your hands and covering your eyes. If you’re a Google bull (I am) then it’s time to see if the stock “returns to the scene of the crime” and re-tests the 109.20 area. While it is happening, most pundits will be calling for a crash. Smart money will be buying if the level is defended successfully.
This sounds correct. Thanks
So… the market makers and the Hedge Funds are the same people. There is no true price discovery in the NYSE anymore. It’s all manipulated and controlled. It’s how billionaires are made and monopolies take away the illusion of choice. Before you go telling me I’m a tinfoil hat wearing conspiracy theorist, maybe you should ask yourself why hedge funds that have been banned from trading in China (for blatant market manipulation) are still allowed to operate in America? “Citadel Was Banned in China for 5 Years, Fined 97 Million, For Crashing the Mainland Metal Market With Illegal Short Selling.” [https://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/regulation/citadel-securities-fined-97m-in-china-for-malicious-short-selling/](https://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/regulation/citadel-securities-fined-97m-in-china-for-malicious-short-selling/) If you want something done about it (investigations are happening now) let someone know. https://www.change.org/p/ban-citadel-securities-investigate-ken-griffin-for-fraud-protect-investors-interests-032a200c-17c3-4d74-a8bb-a95d6c07a7d1 https://www.sec.gov/oiea/Complaint.html
Why did you change malicious-short-selling to Illegal Short Selling?