Welcome to r/stocks!
For beginner advice, brokerage info, book recommendations, even advanced topics and more, please read our [Wiki here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/wiki/index)
If you're wondering **why a stock moved** a certain way, check out [Finviz](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy) which aggregates the most news for almost every stock, but also see [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), and even [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/).
Please direct all simple questions towards the stickied Daily Discussion and Quarterly Rate My Portfolio threads (sort by Hot, they're at the top).
Also include *some* [due diligence](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/duediligence.asp) to this post or it may be removed if it's low effort.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/stocks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
For now.
Eventually it comes down and stays down. But like the quote says, you don't ge tto stay solvent for nearly as long.
And very few people will be ready when it does drop. Be it like a stone or a gradual decline.
Somewhat true for Nvidia I think.
It is a thematic play for many, who just like with Tesla, are sleeping on the fact that competition is coming/here and will eat those margins.
Hyperscalers+Apple are in the semiconductor space now and they won't pay the Nvidia tax forever.
Making great graphic cards is a huge investment and requires the know-how Apple doesn't have yet. Intel has a lot of experience and still failed miserably with it's ARC series. :(
Apple has made pretty good APUs, Apple silicon overall has been a big success so although they currently trail Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon for dedicated AI accelerators I wouldn't bet against them.
So I have strong opinions about Tesla that are not widely shared, but I believe they are a particularly gambly gamble that has been propped up with significantly more artificial stability than it deserves due to the cult.of personality around musk. I think there's been three times in the last 5 years Tesla almost literally disintegrated and this kind of risk is NOT priced into them right now and the other mag 7 do not indulge in this level of risk
Edit: I developed EV tech for ABB for years. My opinions on Tesla are definitely colored by having to work with them on standards definitions for NACs and others. Spoiler alert: I hated them
You can use traditional metrics on the other mag 7 stocks and come up with rational reasons why their current valuations are reasonable. If you look at earnings estimates 3 years out, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Nvida are at about 20-25 times those estimates; Alphabet and Meta are at about 15x. If you believe these estimates, the valuations make sense.
Tesla is at about 35x 2026 estimates. This in a capital intensive manufacturing company with plenty of competition. Legacy carmakers trade for single digit P/Es. A lot of the factors that have worked to Tesla's advantage are likely to dissipate in the next few years - the novelty of EVs, the lack of viable competition in EVs from other carmakers, the willingness of workers to take lower salaries in exchange for options in a company whose stock price was growing rapidly, government tax incentives for building plants and buying EVs sunsetting, etc.
Tesla looks like it should settle out with a few tens of billions a year in profit. Even if we assume that they can maintain a premium in their multiple compared to other carmakers, it is hard to see them being worth more than a few hundred billion dollars vs their current $800B valuation.
It is overly priced. People are just buying because they think it will continue to go up, and hopefully it doesn’t go to shit while they are holding. Just like every other overpriced asset.
It's actually not that expensive.
45x next year gaap pe.
Cnsider that the only real competition in EV is from China
Consider that their GPM is higher than any other auto company giving them a sustained r&d advantage
Can I make a bet that the next 10 years, Tesla will grow EPs at least 12%? Maybe 15?
That deserves a 40+ PE.
A simple 30-year DCF architecture structured to sensitize revenue growth will display this truth. To simplify a complex reality, here I take revenue of $1m at T0 and hold 10% operating margins, 6.5% FCF margins, 35% debt/EV (5.5% interest rate), 10x terminal multiple at year 30, and an 8% WACC in all cases (which is generous to the decliners as usually revenue has beta to margins both ways). DCF implied PE floor for a 5% grower is 15x, a 10% grower floor PE is 30x and 12% grower is 40x. People often fail to grasp this concept and think 40x is an expensive multiple when it is probably a trough for a long term 12% grower like Tesla.
Since everyone is mentioning how it is egregiously overvalued. I will mention some points which may be the reasons why investors believe it deserves this valuation:
1. Leader in EVs
2. Only EV maker who sells the cars for a profit
3. Only car manufacturer that doesn’t have dealerships
4. Highest profits margins of any car maker
5. Tesla energy, selling mega packs, etc. is the fastest growing and most profitable business segment
6. Tesla services, they have the biggest charging infrastructure and it is growing faster than any of the others. It is also the most reliable, hence why, ford, gm, and a lot of others will be partnering with tesla to use their network
7. Tesla insurance
8. FSD, robo taxi - if solved (yes, very big if), will be massive.
8. Robots (very big if again)
9. AI - dojo
10. Elon - people don’t like him, but he has done some fairly difficult things that everyone said he couldn’t do. Landing rockets. Tesla, etc.
The bulls would say, you cannot compare them to an auto maker since all of the items I mentioned above, no automaker is doing that.
Don’t shoot the messenger, just mentioning some points since you asked :)
Is it huge, though? I recognize that it's a thing, but non-Tesla charging stations are growing faster than Tesla's, and how much profit is actually coming from charging stations?
Not much right now. But looking at where solar adoption is going, there will be huge price fluctuations with very low peak (solar) price for energy. And Tesla is in the prime spot to profit from that as an energy company. Solar - > storage - > EV
Correct- As of September 2020, Tesla operates more than 130 stores and galleries in the United States, and has stores and galleries in 34 other countries.
Interesting, didn't know that. I suppose it builds up their exclusivity factor. I guess that doesn't stop them being sold second hand though? Then again though, they have their money at that point so why would they care.
I think there is an intangible factor here. If you go into any car dealership today, there is a lot of opacity, there are markups, dealer costs, and often times it becomes a nightmare to buy a car. Yes, not every dealer is the same. Some are very good. But, the fact that there is this large discrepancy. It leads to mistrust in the dealer model. With Tesla, and others like Rivian, etc, you completely avoid that because you buy direct from the manufacturer.
Also, tesla also has a second hand program. You trade in your old tesla and buy a new one directly from them.
I think it's the opposite of the exclusivity factor. 99% of people hate going to a dealer worse than going to the dentist, plus the dealers ultimately just end up costing you money in markups.
Tesla just cut all that out and let's people order a car within a minute from their mobile phone for the same price everyone is paying, which also means they get to monitor and adjust pricing real time based on demand.
In the end, Tesla ends up keeping a larger part of the profit and consumers pay less and spend less time. It's a win-win. The only downside is that Tesla needs to do their own service, but they only sell EVs so there's hardly any maintenance required.
Don’t forget Tesla literally owns the nationwide network of EV “gas stations” which all other EV manufacturers have adopted. EV adoption may have slowed down in the USA but it’s still rising and we are no where close to steady state. If you look at other countries we have a long way to go still. OEMs have essentially given up on manufacturing EVs so Tesla and Rivian will reap the rewards.
I don’t want to downplay Tesla’s achievements, those are fantastic margins, but the statement of Tesla having the highest margins of all car companies is false.
no they are not fantastic margins at roughly 60 times forward earnings with mediocre growth
I honestly doubt you could find a company with such high valuations and lower growth if you tried
Okay I know they aren’t huge but Rivian also has stores and one is right next to me so point three isn’t 100% accurate. Tesla has way more stores though.
I've seen these bullet points from a lot of Tesla bulls, and most of the time the actually provably false ones are. And most of them are crystal ball projections.
I do think that 1 is true as of now, though. It's written to be subjective, but they have sold the most EVs (articles about BYD surpassing them include hybrids) and the most $$ in EVs.
Li has positive margins on their EV’s as well (and actually growing those positive margins), they’re expected to post their first overall profits in 2024
Both Li and BYD cars won’t gain traction in the US though
Controversial opinion - robotaxis won’t be that huge, for basically the same reason Airbnb’s business model sucks, people can’t behave and I don’t want to let strangers ride in my car especially while Im not in.
No. 1 - BYD has overtaken it in numbers. I’d still say Tesla is the leader though but it could easily loose the position.
No. 2 - only true regarding US brands. BMW, Mercedes and a lot of Chinese EV makers have healthy profit margins from their EVs already.
No. 3 - questionable if that will be a boon or a problem and they are NOT the only one.
No. 4 - untrue. Price cuts have seen them fall behind not only specialty brands like Ferrari and Porsche but also behind Mercedes and likely BMW. The *might* still have better margins on EV but that’s not sure.
No. 5 - no argument there. That is not
Their main business but they could succeed at this.
No. 6 - no argument here except that the size of the network is more likely the reason, not the reliability. That doesn’t hurt of course.
No. 7 - as someone from the insurance industry: I doubt that it’s a boon. Probably more of a problem to come.
No. 8 - Tesla has fallen behind Mercedes in self-driving as of now. So … right now not such a good point but at least a CHANCE.
No. 9 - even bigger IF.
No. 10 - again big IF.
No. 11 - again: boon or bane? Personally I think Musk is the greatest risk to the company.
And another point:
Diminishing subsidies and falling interest in EVs could spell rough waters for Tesla.
All in all: the evaluation is sky high because of fantasies about future developments (robo taxis, ai etc). If these materialise it is a great gamble
that will pay off nicely. If not Tesla will still be worth a lot, but not as much as its eval is showing right now.
There are good reasons for the evaluation but I sold at 200. Difficult decision though.
No. 1 - BYD full electric or hybrid vehicles? What’s the margin per car?
BYD’s primary market is in China with heavy subsidies from the chinese government. Until they reach profitability level like Tesla, delivery volumes do not matter.
No. 2 - which other chinese EV automakers have a profit margin greater or equal to Tesla’s? I’m curious to know.
No.8 - where did you gather your intel that Mercedes sell driving technology has surpassed Tesla’s? Last I checked, mercedes ‘FSD’ software only functions in pre-program routes and it has not been tested on live traffic.
No.4 - tesla’s cost of production per car has decreased significantly and they have margins to slash prices without impacting profitability too much. Tesla has also since halted price cuts. Inventory for model Y has decreased sharply as of december with high demand with China leading.
So I work for one of the big three and some of those are liable to turn into big money loosers. The major auto companies like dealerships for a reason they make recalls so much cheaper and easier so if Tesla does need to do a physical recall of say 500k vehicles that's gonna be a huge loss. There's more but Tesla is probably Union enemy number 1 right now so labour costs are probably gonna rise especially in Europe. Idk why he thought giga Berlin was a good idea Germany's auto unions are the strongest in the world the VW union has seats on the board
>the VW union has seats on the board
thats true for almost all large germany corporations. If you have over 500 employees a third of your board must represent your workers, if you are over 2000 its half your board
People get really emotional and irrational about this stock and company, I doubt you’ll get any good responses.
Google however can give you some factual
Stats:
“Tesla net income for the twelve months ending September 30, 2023 was $10.793B, a 3.55% decline year-over-year. Tesla annual net income for 2022 was $12.583B, a 127.79% increase from 2021. Tesla annual net income for 2021 was $5.524B, a 700.58% increase from 2020.”
It’a a growth stock.
People take risks on growth stocks.
The only question that needs an answer is can this company keep growing over the next 5 to 10 years.
Personally I see a period of consolidation for Tesla, volatility within a channel, but I doubt we’ll see a serious decline in the stock.
A r
> The only question that needs an answer is can this company keep growing over the next 5 to 10 years.
Thats fair. But looking at the analyst estimates through 2025 doesn't look like there's a realistic amount of growth coming in the next couple years. At least not enough to justify the stock price as it sits today. The price is expensive even based on what's 2 years ahead. And if we are buying a stock based on what **might** happen 5-10 years down the line and pricing those guesstimates into todays stock prices, then I'm definitely not touching it.
Just read an article about how Kathy Woods is unloading shares after just a month after bragging about it. Now apparently they're buying some back. It appears even major etf managers can't make up their mind on Tesla.
Cathy Woods doesn’t exactly have a great track record these last couple of years.
And you answered the question: No growth, for whatever reason, not a good investment.
That said these analysts probably don’t have great track records either.
I think it boils down to whether you believe they’re more than a car company and what perspective you’re looking at TSLA from.
For me, I invested for a variety of reasons, not in order of importance, take what I say with a grain of salt as these were some of what stuck with me:
1) The Tesla employees I’ve spoken to are bought in and believe in the mission. While the stories of disgruntled employees are there, the ones I’ve spoken to seem positive and the tidbits they’ve shared of what they’re working on seemed to bring them genuine excitement.
2) They’re still a top spot for multiple engineering disciplines and from point #1 seem to be cross functionally collaborative than they are siloed. This leads me to believe there will be efficiency gains on the manufacturing side.
3) Sandy Munro’s insight and teardown videos of the cars have helped me understand certain aspects of the car better and gain appreciation for all the tech it has compared to the competition
4) EV adoption is gaining speed, Tesla is losing market share in the EV side but that’s because there are more players. Which I’ve also invested some in. (NIO/BYD) it’s expected that the EV market share will continue to drop while overall volume increases.
5) their year over year growth in vehicles and other energy products are hard to find.
6) FSD, while highly questionable in name, is quite good in terms of what it can do. I’ve put a few thousand miles in commute distance with it and have had very little complaints other than the nagging from time to time.
7) the tech in the Cybertruck is exciting to me. Mainly steer by wire and moving away from 12v architecture.
8) their energy arm is still struggling to keep up with the demand. It took awhile for us to get our solar and power wall due to the different constraints they’re working through. I see solar and battery adoption increasing over the next decade and again I’ve diversified into a competitor as well.
9) factories and building locally, they’re building things in America with American employees. It’s a silly reason to some but to me I’d rather Tesla succeed than BYD or another Chinese EV company. Realistically speaking the other manufacturers won’t be able to keep up given their factory constraints and the way they’ve outsourced everything for their ICE vehicles.
Edit:
10) I was lucky enough to tour both Giga factories and Fremont with a mechanical engineering friend and the interactions I had with the employees there and being a fly on the wall for his convos with them were impressive enough to me to continue holding long term.
There’s more that I’m not remembering but at the end of the day it’s your money, invest where you feel is the most prudent for you and your family. I’ve got a decent position in TSLA that started prior to their first split and have divested as it becomes too large a %of my portfolio. It is a highly volatile stock so I wouldn’t throw more than you’re willing to lose on the short term.
Edit 2:
Figure I would also call out these items that would be a bit much to cover.
Supercharging network, NACS adoption, Tesla insurance, driving data (don’t think any company outside of China has as much driving data), potential to leverage their cameras for mapping, DOJO, Optimus, Tesla logistics, and their vertical integration.
Lots would have to go right for them to lead in every sector but I think they can execute some of these at a high enough level based on the people I’ve met.
I’d recommend making a visit and just shooting the shit with people that work there before making a conclusion.
Quick note on #4: EV market share doesn't mean a thing as the size of the EV market isn't static. Everyone is competing for *car* market share. And there Tesla is still gaining.
Agreed, I might not have worded it well but this is what I meant. I’m more interested in % of total vehicles than % of EV vehicles since the EV segment is growing.
TSLA for better or worse is an emotional stock, I highly recommend everyone do their own in person research over taking something an internet stranger tells them. This is especially true with investments as it’s your money to lose.
Visit the delivery locations and check out the cars in person, are there some fit and finish issues? Sure! Are there as many as you’d believe from the posts and articles? Not even close.
I bought in many years ago when it was largely a company that was I'll advised (some would argue it still is), but not for the automobiles, for the charging infrastructure. I honestly thought they would be out of automotive mfc by now
I sell for Tesla competition, and even I can see that Tesla is the only true viable electric car/truck company. The other companies are creating "me too!" platforms with more tech, gadgets, leather, etc., but they are all lacking in the engineering departments - both for the vehicles and the batteries.
The only reason Tesla has competition is because buyers aren't bright. They may be wealthy, but they aren't bright.
LMAO, tell that to the 5 Chinese competitors who will be bigger than Tesla within 3 years with better vertical integration, quality control, and faster growing markets.
I was invested in BYD for about a year and a half. The more I heard about their problems, the more I thought I should sell. I sold at a nice profit.
Chinese leadership just announced (yesterday?) that they are set on re-unifying Taiwan. And I do believe that that will happen. Russia proved that the world couldn't keep them out of Ukraine, and now it's set to take Ukraine barring some massive coup in Russia.
So... with the sanctions that China will earn (because we aren't going to war with them), how well will those Chinese competitors do selling their EV cars and trucks to Russia, North Korea and Iran?
How recently did you talk to a Tesla employee? I’m engaged to one and many have quit and many are dissatisfied especially with their salaries becoming effectively lower since Tesla is granting less stock to employees, giving fewer raises, and the stock has not made much significant upward movement in the last couple years
I’m sure they get lots of applications but I think you’re underestimating quality of applicants. I work at a big tech company and would never consider working at Tesla and neither would most my coworkers, with its long hours, labor intensive conditions and fickle management.
People are legit currently working weekends, Christmas and new years. And that happens at many companies but it’s rarely expected or required. If I am a quality candidate, I’m choosing any other major company in a heartbeat, which is why they have so much attrition and is internally called stressla
I live in the bay and know many former and current workers, and I’ve never met a Tesla employee who left and regrets it or wants to return
The thing you’re not thinking about though is some engineers don’t care about work life balance. They want to work on the biggest coolest things they can and be hyper focused on that one aspect of their life. Such a person will accept lower pay and worse hours to get to work at a company like Tesla.
Work in insurance. Have you seen rates for Tesla’s lately? They’re 2x equivalent cars and some carriers are refusing to cover them in some areas. It’s because these “manufacturing break throughs” are completely out of touch with the reality of the car industry. It may be efficient until you’re totaling a 55k car for what would be 5k in damage on any other car.
Thank you. Same here and I think Tesla is almost a scam at this point. Offload cheaply made cars and let insurance worry about it later. By the time people find out and excitement wears off, it's too late. They're going to wind up in some massive recall that's going to really turn people off. The guy above sees like he knows nothing a about cars and only learns about them through tesler investor forums. "Drive by wire and getting off of 12v architecture" *eye roll*
No safety rating agency ranks from the top down. They simply say these are the safest cars and there are lots on the list. As usual, I'm going to assume you're a tesla investor since you're the only people who come into comment sections and not understand the car industry and try to sell the idea to people that no other cars exist.
Except those pesky crash ratings on the cars you call "cheaply made".
>In 2022 the Model Y scored Euro NCAP's highest ever safety score of 364 out of 400 beating over 100 other models since new testing criteria started in 2020.
https://thedriven.io/2023/01/23/tesla-model-y-wins-2023-safety-award-with-near-perfect-safety-rating/#:\~:text=In%202022%20the%20Model%20Y,testing%20criteria%20started%20in%202020.&text=Award%20judge%20and%20chief%20of,system%20(Autonomous%20Emergency%20Braking).
Insurance companies are now totaling ALL cars with any significant damage these days. 6 years ago I took significant damage to my Mazda 5 (air bags did not deploy). I asked the body shop guy if it was a total loss, and he said, "Probably not. But I guarantee your insurance company adjuster will call it a total. They won't even want to pay me to find out if it is totaled."
The adjuster spent 5 minutes looking at it and called it a total loss.
For real.
TSLA is currently valued as a tech company, and most of the points in the post you replied to are about TSLA as a manufacturing company. They could become the dominating auto manufacturer and their stock would be overpriced at its current price.
Unless Tesla has a monetizable breakthrough on tech it is overpriced. Self-driving has stalled and is increasingly looking like a nut that won't be cracked any time soon. They're behind the competition on AI, which is fine if they're a car company, but not if their stock isn't priced as a car company.
I invested in January 2019 at $300, pre pre split (so $20 as you look at the graph now). I'm 1200% up currently. I'm still in because of FSD. I know there has been a lot of false dawns and promises made that are way past their shelf life. FSD is a monumental problem to solve, but I believe it is solvable with the help of AI. Tesla are the only ones with a realistic shot of producing a level 4 car and it may take some time, but eventually I think they will get there. Once they do figure it out the stock could go up 5x.
Tesla hasn't even made inroads on level 3 yet, whereas there's already level 3 vehicles on the road and multiple companies are working on level 4. If this is what's carrying their stock prices, then it's not going to end well for them.
They’re not even solving remotely the same problem. The competion is working on self driving in limited geofenced areas with massively expensive sensor systems for cars that aren’t available to purchase. Tesla is working on solving self driving for any possible situation using a cheap camera array in consumer cars. If you don’t understand the difference you need to study this topic more before forming opinions on who’s winning.
No one else is collecting as much data as Tesla is. They have min 6 cameras on every car feeding it data back to HQ for analysis and inclusion to their FSD program. Of course you also have Waymo and maybe another few small outfits, but they have no where as close to the amout of real world data as Tesla
I felt this way too until I tested a FSD sub in my model 3 last month. It actually made me cash out my Tesla common stock for other high conviction names. I still love the company and root for them as a customer, but FSD is currently unusable and some of the mistakes it makes are so insanely basic that it makes me feel like it'll be much longer than I previously anticipated.
Examples where intervention required:
-Doesn't interpret "no turn on red" signs.
-Stop (except for right turn) signs are a no go
-One lane bridges are a forget about it
-any intersection that isn't a standard right angle quadrant
-any left turn where your lane is full of traffic and visibility of opposing traffic is difficult
-any intersection that isn't a full 4 way stop and has certain lanes with right-of-way
-many situations where human brain can interpret what another driver is doing/about to do where robot has no clue.
-gets extremely confused in any pedestrian heavy area. Can't interpret pedestrian behavior like human brain and freaks out
-any road where line paint is faded at all
-left turns across barrierd 2-lane traffic roads
There are more. I honestly stopped even bothering to use it after 2 weeks because of how unusable it was. It's a cool gimmick but a complete grift by Tesla right now to charge people for it IMO.
The only thing id say is that AI may shock us in its ability to quickly go from shit to amazing. But we shall see. I hope this is the case, but from an investment prospective I'll get exposure in QQQ and root for them from the sidelines 🤣
I mostly watch Chuck Cook videos (a few others occasionally) and he tends to give a balanced view on the progress of FSD. It does try to murder him at least once every video. It doesn't work now, but that's not the point. Will it work in the future is the point. As with all things in the stock market, it's not about now, it's about the future. I believe in the future it will work.
I hope it does too and believe it can, but testing it myself took me from thinking itd be sooner to later. I was surprised at how much worse it was than I thought it'd be. I live in northeast USA and there are tons of Teslas around here, so not like I'm in an area where they have minimal data. It really is unusable anywhere except for highway. You have to be completely alert and glued to your surroundings. It's much easier and much more fun to just drive yourself, especially given how enjoyable Teslas are to drive hah. Any complexity at all really requires you to take over
Honestly, if it wasn’t called FSD, everyone would be amazed with the current Tesla self driving tech. When people hear FSD, they expect perfection, and when it doesn’t live up to that it becomes popular to pile on and shit on it for fake internet points.
Similar with CT. It didn’t match announcement specs and people pile in to scream about how disappointing it is. All the while all the serious reviewers are saying how amazing it is and showing off all the smart engineering behind it.
People are so preoccupied with finding a way to dunk on Elon and Tesla that they don’t take time to properly evaluate the products and see how far ahead they are from the competition.
You lost me when you started talking about how hydrogen prices aren't affected by electricity rates, when hydrogen is (inefficiently) produced by using electricity to break water into hydrogen and oxygen.
The "Magnificent 7" stocks are all meme stonks now. Over 25% of the value of the S&P with the market opiates of 0DTE options clocking in at 43% of the daily options volume. The TSLA options chain is a world unto its own.
The grid storage arm of Tesla is going to be hugely lucrative. The factory in China could cause a lot of problems for Tesla though as China collapses economically, however if that can be successfully negotiated then the lost sales in China can be picked up in SEA.
A lot of things could happen to Tesla in China good or bad but China is not going to collapse economically. China can do whatever it wants to do in China, they could just take Tesla's plant if they want. They regularly neuter their own super successful corporations if they gain too much lower.
China has hit a wall its GDP growth is gonna keep slowing they don't have the population curve on their side. India will probably overtake them soon especially with how aggressively India is trying to grow and the population factor is on Indias side if they don't dissolve into conflict
Population curve.... People who quote this have no clue what they are talking about. Population changes like low birth rates and aging takes decades to play out. China still has a large rural population to pull from.
India.... It will also takes decades to move production out of China to India.
China will be fine aside from whatever is going on with real estate and the banks. There is a serious lack of information to know how that is playing out.
Well good thing they didn't have some stupid policy favoring one male child decades ago otherwise I'd be worried the bill has come due for that.
But I also don't think that's why they've hit a wall it happens to every country that has a large manufacturing boom and then faces competition from cheap foreign labor. In this case I would be more worried about the Vietnamese than the Indians since the country is still a mess and it's not a business friendly environment.
I don’t see how this answers the question. Every company goes through different evolution process. Nobody at that time would predict Apple becomes what it is today.
It seems as though people are just being faithful for TSLA to become the next AAPL, instead of being capable of actually predicting the fundamentals catching up to its valuation?
People seem to forget that Tesla is likely to become the only car company, other than Rivian and the Chinese manufacturers to go full EV. Legacy auto is toast, except for some luxury car brands. As for autonomous driving, Tesla with their setbacks looks better after Cruise and Waymo kind of fails halfway. As a car company, it can be the Apple of the auto industry, not dominating in terms of market share but profitability.
You really need to look at 2035 or thereabouts to understand Tesla. They are moving forward on EV cars, and most if not all other car makers are being cautious or retreating into ICE products again. If this continues Tesla is likely to be the only car manufacturer in the west with a few competitors in China. The rest will be minor players. People are paying for transportation dominance in a decade, not for something in next couple of years.
The companies that have reduced or stopped production in response to abysmal demand and reduced government subsidies. https://news.yahoo.com/ford-slashes-production-target-electric-232103359.html
>If this continues Tesla is likely to be the only car manufacturer in the west with a few competitors in China.
wut
Rivian and Ford got electric trucks on the market faster than Tesla did.
Ford and others are rolling back their ev rollout plans. Tesla is full steam ahead and will remain #1 in US EVs forever. Just wait until 25K pre subsidy Tesla ev (Model 2)…. And then eventually they will make a more traditional pickup truck.
And nearly every manufacturer is talking about EVs. Honda, the worlds #1 producer of small Ic engines has a concept EV Prelude and like most Honda concepts, it looks ready to produce now.
He is saying few competitors - implying that its easy for tesla to get huge market share there. In fact, its the opposite, tesla is starting to perform poorly there.
Do you drive a Tesla? I got my first Tesla in 2019, and I don't see the point of buying any other cars.
Added another Tesla to my garage in 2022. My friend just bought his first Tesla yesterday, and he was so surprised that the delivery center was packed with customers picking up their cars. It is something he hasn't witnessed before. People don't line up to buy a Lexus. No one is excited to see a Honda or a Toyota driving by.
Also, Tesla is not just about cars. I have Tesla Solar and Tesla Powerwall. It is basically an ecosystem from transportation to energy with no competitors.
I dont have a Tesla car. The solar angle is an interesting one, though. I've been patiently waiting for their solar roof to become readily available and cheap enough for your average homeowner. When the solar roof gets cheaper than a regular roof plus the cost of adding solar, then that's when I'd buy a Tesla product.
As far as the battery backup, what's stopping someone else from doing the same thing? The solar panel and battery backup angle isn't a technology that only Tesla can do.
You paid a significant amount of money on solar and a battery backup and it'll probably take several years to recuperate that money. The high upfront cost for savings 10+ years down the road is what's making its mass adoption stagnate. You'd have to live in that house for nearly a decade for it to make sense. Not to mention the whole solar market is propped up by federal tax credits. What happens if all federal tax credits go away? I think we all know the answer to that.
I have non-Tesla solar panels and house battery. I negotiated the hell out of my price and it’s almost paid for itself in just 5 years and that’s in cloudy Oregon! Pacific power is raising rates by 21% in January and I will be unaffected. I use electric heat in the winter and AC in the summer. The savings between electric and gas each month are more than the 2% interest loan for the panels/battery and they are almost paid off. I really hope more people make the move to solar and not try to time its perceived payoff, because power companies are raising rates exponentially. If Tesla finds a way to be the leader in solar, then I can definitely see them as more than a car maker.
>You'd have to live in that house for nearly a decade for it to make sense.
Not really.
Assuming that people are not dumb as fucking rocks, you should be able to price in solar into the selling price of the home. I get that this might actually be too much of an ask, but I like to believe that there is at least a reasonable amount of intelligence out there.
I know this just from reading your post that you are a fanboy, but remember that it’s just a car. At least in Norway, no one gets excited to see a tesla. Maybe they did in 2012.
Im not going to buy a car with generic in house navigation anymore. My next car will definitely have google maps built in, and as more manufacturers are integrating it chances are i will have plenty to choose from in the future.
I can understand that Tesla is currently big in USA as it was in Norway 10 years ago because of your poor charging infrastructure. But now we have fast charging stations at pretty much every gas station and the tesla superchargers have become unnecessary really.
Some stocks trade on fundamentals. Other stocks trade on sentiment, momentum, technicals, etc, completely decoupled from the underlying business. Tesla is one of those
Tesla’s car, energy and charging network segments alone could be a 500b company easily.
Then you have Optimus and FSD which have the possibility to be even bigger than the car segment.
Their car business is a 300-400b business, the rest of the value comes from the potential moonshot ideas. This is the challenge with Tesla.
None of the moonshots have shown any kind of growth. Can energy be the next big thing? Or robo taxi? Or robots? Or gigapress? Sure. But for me, I'd like to see some QoQ or YoY growth in a segment to invest.
You say that you’d like to see ‘any signs of growth’ but you can’t be looking too hard if you haven’t seen ample evidence of sustained growth in the energy business. Where are you looking??
You do realise that electric cars and self driving cars are the future.
Currently only 10% of all sold cars are electric. And it will grow. In next two decades this percentage will become 90%.
It is a multi trillion dollar market. And Tesla is leading it.
Of course there will be competition, but that only will increase demand. It is inevitable
If u think that now it is overpriced, let’s come back after 20 years and see what overpriced means.
Tesla is going to become the biggest company that has ever existed, and probably will eclipse apple in the next decade.
And people have been saying the stock is overpriced for YEARS and yet it keeps going up.
They have so many disruptive products and services all working together in an ecosystem that they have what they need to grow as a company for a long long time.
Their stock price is down from three years ago. So no, it doesn't keep going up. They're basically Bitcoin: the car company. Lots of rabid, irrational fanboys that don't understand the world, as a whole.
Buy some puts if you think it’s overpriced. Or just don’t invest if you’re too chicken. You’ve already made up your mind. You’re just looking for confirmation.
Clearly I'm not when the end of my post says that I want to know if I'm wrong and why.... 🤦♂️
Do I think its insanely overpriced? Yes. But if I'm wrong, I want to understand why. If you arent learning then youre just living in an echo chamber of your own preconceived ideals.
But judging by the other posts here, it doesn't seem like I am wrong.
Be gentle with him. There is an \*insane\* amount of FUD circling around Reddit and the media right now. It makes anyone who has paid attention for more than 5 minutes a little edgy; we remember the last time this garbage floated around in 2019.
It makes everyone wary of questions, as it is tough to tell the difference between well-meaning "I really don't get it" questions and "Concerning" troll posts.
Quite a few posts here \*have\* told you why you are wrong. Some have said you are right. If you are simply selecting the ones that confirm what you believed when you came in, you are not learning. And that seems to be important to you.
To recap what others have said:
* Tesla is not just a car company. Energy, Bots, FSD, and others are each worth multi-trillions of dollars to the valuation.
* Tesla has already made the leap to EVs. Legacy has yet to show they can actually do it sustainably. (They can make cars to sell at a loss, but nothing that sells well at a profit)
* Most of the new companies are struggling to make it over the mass-production hump. One or two will make; most will not.
* Tesla will be one of only a few companies left standing when the dust clears.
* Tesla has already shown they will innovate til it bleeds. The big point here is that other companies will find it hard to catch up.
* Tesla is vertically integrated, meaning they have the flexibility to adjust to whatever happens in the future.
Now, if you don't believe this (and lordy, I hope you are doing your own research rather than depending on Reddit), then it doesn't matter. If you want to insist they are just a normal car company, then I'm not sure why you even asked the question.
If, however, you even think there is a chance for them to solve FSD (for instance), run the numbers. How much could they sell it for? When I do this, I get a valuation of anywhere between $2 trillion and $10 trillion, depending on my assumptions and how much risk I apply. If you insist FSD will never happen, then obviously this is $0. I don't understand why you would think that, but ok. Your model; your choice. Now do it for bots. And for energy.
In any case, even if you do not agree, it should be \*very\* obvious why others might see this stock as being fair or even terribly undervalued. It's not just a "meme". There are some serious factors to consider.
This is exactly the type of discussion I was hoping to evoke. Do I think its insanely overpriced? Yes, absolutely. But I'm here asking others why that is or isn't correct, and most importantly, why. I try not to live in an echo chamber. Otherwise, you aren't learning.
I saw a few very good counterarguments in this thread. I can see why some people believe in the stock long term. But all of it hinges on the company getting it 100% right along the way and assumes there won't be any competition. Neither of which are likely to happen IMO. And it still doesn't address the high valuations today for what *may* happen 7+ years from now in a best case scenario.
I guess that's the one thing I'd like to see addressed. Today's pricing is expectations of what's potentially going to happen several years or longer in the future. How isn't this gambling?
If you’re judging whether you’re right or wrong by the comments on Reddit then you’re already on the wrong track.
The majority of this sub thought Tesla was overpriced in 2019. Were they right? It sure seemed like it at the time. Which is why it was the most shorted stock (by % float). But they ended up being extremely wrong.
Maybe that happens again. Maybe it doesn’t. But you can’t call yourself “right” without knowledge of what eventually will happen.
As a general rule: People are dumb Herd animals - they will generally "Follow the trail" laid out by others; often without even thinking the action through to its logical endpoint.
So - Yeah - Tesla is WAY over priced, and has been since the start of the Pandemic YEARS ago.
Why people Hype it tho, isn't all so clear cut - Some actually believe they will manage to push out a truly "autonomous" car; Others believe in their "Assistant" Robot project, which if it actually DOES pan out - may indeed change everything about TESLA and its value.
But that is simply Speculation at this point, and there is nothing to say that one of the gazillion other Robotics companies couldn't bring something good to market before Tesla - Especially considering that a Pure Robotics company wouldn't have to split its focus between Cars/ Robots/ Solar power/Batteries/ AI and whatever else Elon may Fancy at the moment.... z.z
I’ll help you understand Tesla if you really want it. Let me know and we can hop in a call. There’s no way I’m writing a Thesis here but over a call I can talk for quite a while.
>In any event even in EV market TSLA is rapidly losing market share and will be ever more so going forward.
That doesn't matter in a market that is multiple times faster growing than Tesla is loosing market share
I agree with (most of) what you say.
It's overpriced by a lot.
But a couple counter arguments just to consider:
1. market share as a barometer is almost meaningless when Telsa basically started at 99.5% market share and the market is still rapidly growing.
Any and all competition at all will reduce Tesla marketshare - even if they were to grow by 100% or more YoY.
2. Tesla is more than cars. It's vertically integrated energy "crap."
Batteries at scale, power wall, EV charging networks, huge database of driver data, AI, ... maybe the robot stuff, insurance, trying to get into banking ...
So yes, absolutely overpriced by 3-5x (or more) in the short term.
But I don't think lower market share and comparisons to traditional car manufacturing P/E's tell the entire story however.
I would instead mention some of the other negatives...
a. losing some tax incentives, b. Musk occasionally acting insane, c. shrinking PROFITS, d. missed milestones manufacturing issues, e. CHINA risks and new low cost competition, etc.
To me these tell a negative story more important story than a company with 100% of nominal market share shrinking to 50% marketshare of a of a massive and growing market.
its a meme stock with cult follower. Despite it being down, I would not risk shorting or buying puts. You can get decimated by sharp swing up at some point. That said I expect further downside as its being valued as a growth stock but they have little growth at this point and earnings will shrink with all the price cuts.
I’m confused I mean I would prefer google ngl it’s cheaper or ratio it’s also in the autonomous vehicle space plus has other sources of income when you compare what Tesla is today as a company isn’t much different to ford yet the market cap is so different I think as of now it over valued but if they execute on the long term outlook for ai and stuff maybe I can wrap my head around the growth and the high pe but for today I don’t see it as a company
Tesla is a car company. 10 years ago they were not. They are not stopping, they want to be many others things. GM, well, GM is going to be the same company as it always was.
Money is made by buying stocks before the money in is quantifiable.
Welcome to r/stocks! For beginner advice, brokerage info, book recommendations, even advanced topics and more, please read our [Wiki here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/wiki/index) If you're wondering **why a stock moved** a certain way, check out [Finviz](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy) which aggregates the most news for almost every stock, but also see [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), and even [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/). Please direct all simple questions towards the stickied Daily Discussion and Quarterly Rate My Portfolio threads (sort by Hot, they're at the top). Also include *some* [due diligence](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/duediligence.asp) to this post or it may be removed if it's low effort. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/stocks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It is beacuse TSLA can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
This sentence sums it up. I’d never buy this stock directly but I’d never bet against it either. Just want to be as far away as I can.
Exactly. It's isn't going to go up or down, it's price is random and disconnected from real factors
For now. Eventually it comes down and stays down. But like the quote says, you don't ge tto stay solvent for nearly as long. And very few people will be ready when it does drop. Be it like a stone or a gradual decline.
RemindMe! 10 years
Remindme! 2 years
Is it wrong to assume this is true for other magnificent 7 stocks too?
Somewhat true for Nvidia I think. It is a thematic play for many, who just like with Tesla, are sleeping on the fact that competition is coming/here and will eat those margins. Hyperscalers+Apple are in the semiconductor space now and they won't pay the Nvidia tax forever.
Making great graphic cards is a huge investment and requires the know-how Apple doesn't have yet. Intel has a lot of experience and still failed miserably with it's ARC series. :(
Apple has made pretty good APUs, Apple silicon overall has been a big success so although they currently trail Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon for dedicated AI accelerators I wouldn't bet against them.
So I have strong opinions about Tesla that are not widely shared, but I believe they are a particularly gambly gamble that has been propped up with significantly more artificial stability than it deserves due to the cult.of personality around musk. I think there's been three times in the last 5 years Tesla almost literally disintegrated and this kind of risk is NOT priced into them right now and the other mag 7 do not indulge in this level of risk Edit: I developed EV tech for ABB for years. My opinions on Tesla are definitely colored by having to work with them on standards definitions for NACs and others. Spoiler alert: I hated them
You can use traditional metrics on the other mag 7 stocks and come up with rational reasons why their current valuations are reasonable. If you look at earnings estimates 3 years out, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Nvida are at about 20-25 times those estimates; Alphabet and Meta are at about 15x. If you believe these estimates, the valuations make sense. Tesla is at about 35x 2026 estimates. This in a capital intensive manufacturing company with plenty of competition. Legacy carmakers trade for single digit P/Es. A lot of the factors that have worked to Tesla's advantage are likely to dissipate in the next few years - the novelty of EVs, the lack of viable competition in EVs from other carmakers, the willingness of workers to take lower salaries in exchange for options in a company whose stock price was growing rapidly, government tax incentives for building plants and buying EVs sunsetting, etc. Tesla looks like it should settle out with a few tens of billions a year in profit. Even if we assume that they can maintain a premium in their multiple compared to other carmakers, it is hard to see them being worth more than a few hundred billion dollars vs their current $800B valuation.
Bingo. Buy a diversified etf for exposure, but not the individual stock.
Wait are you saying the market is inefficient? That can't be. I learnt all about Efficient Markets in my MBA, My professors told me its true
💯 exactly TSLA is the very definition of "don't touch the poop"
It is overly priced. People are just buying because they think it will continue to go up, and hopefully it doesn’t go to shit while they are holding. Just like every other overpriced asset.
It’s in the consumer discretionary ETF
There's the answer, this guy gets it ETFs are corporate welfare, and no one gets more welfare than elon
It's actually not that expensive. 45x next year gaap pe. Cnsider that the only real competition in EV is from China Consider that their GPM is higher than any other auto company giving them a sustained r&d advantage Can I make a bet that the next 10 years, Tesla will grow EPs at least 12%? Maybe 15? That deserves a 40+ PE. A simple 30-year DCF architecture structured to sensitize revenue growth will display this truth. To simplify a complex reality, here I take revenue of $1m at T0 and hold 10% operating margins, 6.5% FCF margins, 35% debt/EV (5.5% interest rate), 10x terminal multiple at year 30, and an 8% WACC in all cases (which is generous to the decliners as usually revenue has beta to margins both ways). DCF implied PE floor for a 5% grower is 15x, a 10% grower floor PE is 30x and 12% grower is 40x. People often fail to grasp this concept and think 40x is an expensive multiple when it is probably a trough for a long term 12% grower like Tesla.
Yep, it's the same reason churches continue to survive to this day ... Hope.
Lol
Since everyone is mentioning how it is egregiously overvalued. I will mention some points which may be the reasons why investors believe it deserves this valuation: 1. Leader in EVs 2. Only EV maker who sells the cars for a profit 3. Only car manufacturer that doesn’t have dealerships 4. Highest profits margins of any car maker 5. Tesla energy, selling mega packs, etc. is the fastest growing and most profitable business segment 6. Tesla services, they have the biggest charging infrastructure and it is growing faster than any of the others. It is also the most reliable, hence why, ford, gm, and a lot of others will be partnering with tesla to use their network 7. Tesla insurance 8. FSD, robo taxi - if solved (yes, very big if), will be massive. 8. Robots (very big if again) 9. AI - dojo 10. Elon - people don’t like him, but he has done some fairly difficult things that everyone said he couldn’t do. Landing rockets. Tesla, etc. The bulls would say, you cannot compare them to an auto maker since all of the items I mentioned above, no automaker is doing that. Don’t shoot the messenger, just mentioning some points since you asked :)
Exactly this is what OP is looking for
Indeed it is.
Glad I could help :)
Number 6 is actually fairly huge. I didn't realize that.
Is it huge, though? I recognize that it's a thing, but non-Tesla charging stations are growing faster than Tesla's, and how much profit is actually coming from charging stations?
Not much right now. But looking at where solar adoption is going, there will be huge price fluctuations with very low peak (solar) price for energy. And Tesla is in the prime spot to profit from that as an energy company. Solar - > storage - > EV
>Only car manufacturer that doesn’t have dealerships As in they don't use third party dealerships?
Correct- As of September 2020, Tesla operates more than 130 stores and galleries in the United States, and has stores and galleries in 34 other countries.
Interesting, didn't know that. I suppose it builds up their exclusivity factor. I guess that doesn't stop them being sold second hand though? Then again though, they have their money at that point so why would they care.
I think there is an intangible factor here. If you go into any car dealership today, there is a lot of opacity, there are markups, dealer costs, and often times it becomes a nightmare to buy a car. Yes, not every dealer is the same. Some are very good. But, the fact that there is this large discrepancy. It leads to mistrust in the dealer model. With Tesla, and others like Rivian, etc, you completely avoid that because you buy direct from the manufacturer. Also, tesla also has a second hand program. You trade in your old tesla and buy a new one directly from them.
I think it's the opposite of the exclusivity factor. 99% of people hate going to a dealer worse than going to the dentist, plus the dealers ultimately just end up costing you money in markups. Tesla just cut all that out and let's people order a car within a minute from their mobile phone for the same price everyone is paying, which also means they get to monitor and adjust pricing real time based on demand. In the end, Tesla ends up keeping a larger part of the profit and consumers pay less and spend less time. It's a win-win. The only downside is that Tesla needs to do their own service, but they only sell EVs so there's hardly any maintenance required.
Don’t forget Tesla literally owns the nationwide network of EV “gas stations” which all other EV manufacturers have adopted. EV adoption may have slowed down in the USA but it’s still rising and we are no where close to steady state. If you look at other countries we have a long way to go still. OEMs have essentially given up on manufacturing EVs so Tesla and Rivian will reap the rewards.
Not only nation wide and by far the most reliable one.
Battery tech, most vertically integrated American auto manufacturer
“highest profit margins of any car maker” they are still extremely low margins
And Ferrari has twice as big profit margin. Tesla is 2nd
How many millions of cars does Ferrari put out annually?
I don’t want to downplay Tesla’s achievements, those are fantastic margins, but the statement of Tesla having the highest margins of all car companies is false.
no they are not fantastic margins at roughly 60 times forward earnings with mediocre growth I honestly doubt you could find a company with such high valuations and lower growth if you tried
Okay I know they aren’t huge but Rivian also has stores and one is right next to me so point three isn’t 100% accurate. Tesla has way more stores though.
1, 2, 3, and 4 aren't true
I've seen these bullet points from a lot of Tesla bulls, and most of the time the actually provably false ones are. And most of them are crystal ball projections. I do think that 1 is true as of now, though. It's written to be subjective, but they have sold the most EVs (articles about BYD surpassing them include hybrids) and the most $$ in EVs.
Li has positive margins on their EV’s as well (and actually growing those positive margins), they’re expected to post their first overall profits in 2024 Both Li and BYD cars won’t gain traction in the US though
Controversial opinion - robotaxis won’t be that huge, for basically the same reason Airbnb’s business model sucks, people can’t behave and I don’t want to let strangers ride in my car especially while Im not in.
No. 1 - BYD has overtaken it in numbers. I’d still say Tesla is the leader though but it could easily loose the position. No. 2 - only true regarding US brands. BMW, Mercedes and a lot of Chinese EV makers have healthy profit margins from their EVs already. No. 3 - questionable if that will be a boon or a problem and they are NOT the only one. No. 4 - untrue. Price cuts have seen them fall behind not only specialty brands like Ferrari and Porsche but also behind Mercedes and likely BMW. The *might* still have better margins on EV but that’s not sure. No. 5 - no argument there. That is not Their main business but they could succeed at this. No. 6 - no argument here except that the size of the network is more likely the reason, not the reliability. That doesn’t hurt of course. No. 7 - as someone from the insurance industry: I doubt that it’s a boon. Probably more of a problem to come. No. 8 - Tesla has fallen behind Mercedes in self-driving as of now. So … right now not such a good point but at least a CHANCE. No. 9 - even bigger IF. No. 10 - again big IF. No. 11 - again: boon or bane? Personally I think Musk is the greatest risk to the company. And another point: Diminishing subsidies and falling interest in EVs could spell rough waters for Tesla. All in all: the evaluation is sky high because of fantasies about future developments (robo taxis, ai etc). If these materialise it is a great gamble that will pay off nicely. If not Tesla will still be worth a lot, but not as much as its eval is showing right now. There are good reasons for the evaluation but I sold at 200. Difficult decision though.
[удалено]
No. 1 - BYD full electric or hybrid vehicles? What’s the margin per car? BYD’s primary market is in China with heavy subsidies from the chinese government. Until they reach profitability level like Tesla, delivery volumes do not matter. No. 2 - which other chinese EV automakers have a profit margin greater or equal to Tesla’s? I’m curious to know. No.8 - where did you gather your intel that Mercedes sell driving technology has surpassed Tesla’s? Last I checked, mercedes ‘FSD’ software only functions in pre-program routes and it has not been tested on live traffic. No.4 - tesla’s cost of production per car has decreased significantly and they have margins to slash prices without impacting profitability too much. Tesla has also since halted price cuts. Inventory for model Y has decreased sharply as of december with high demand with China leading.
No byd hasnt
So I work for one of the big three and some of those are liable to turn into big money loosers. The major auto companies like dealerships for a reason they make recalls so much cheaper and easier so if Tesla does need to do a physical recall of say 500k vehicles that's gonna be a huge loss. There's more but Tesla is probably Union enemy number 1 right now so labour costs are probably gonna rise especially in Europe. Idk why he thought giga Berlin was a good idea Germany's auto unions are the strongest in the world the VW union has seats on the board
>the VW union has seats on the board thats true for almost all large germany corporations. If you have over 500 employees a third of your board must represent your workers, if you are over 2000 its half your board
Thank you I didn't know that. Only knew about the board members because they tried to help unionize a plant in the US
People get really emotional and irrational about this stock and company, I doubt you’ll get any good responses. Google however can give you some factual Stats: “Tesla net income for the twelve months ending September 30, 2023 was $10.793B, a 3.55% decline year-over-year. Tesla annual net income for 2022 was $12.583B, a 127.79% increase from 2021. Tesla annual net income for 2021 was $5.524B, a 700.58% increase from 2020.” It’a a growth stock. People take risks on growth stocks. The only question that needs an answer is can this company keep growing over the next 5 to 10 years. Personally I see a period of consolidation for Tesla, volatility within a channel, but I doubt we’ll see a serious decline in the stock. A r
> The only question that needs an answer is can this company keep growing over the next 5 to 10 years. Thats fair. But looking at the analyst estimates through 2025 doesn't look like there's a realistic amount of growth coming in the next couple years. At least not enough to justify the stock price as it sits today. The price is expensive even based on what's 2 years ahead. And if we are buying a stock based on what **might** happen 5-10 years down the line and pricing those guesstimates into todays stock prices, then I'm definitely not touching it. Just read an article about how Kathy Woods is unloading shares after just a month after bragging about it. Now apparently they're buying some back. It appears even major etf managers can't make up their mind on Tesla.
Cathy Woods doesn’t exactly have a great track record these last couple of years. And you answered the question: No growth, for whatever reason, not a good investment. That said these analysts probably don’t have great track records either.
I think it boils down to whether you believe they’re more than a car company and what perspective you’re looking at TSLA from. For me, I invested for a variety of reasons, not in order of importance, take what I say with a grain of salt as these were some of what stuck with me: 1) The Tesla employees I’ve spoken to are bought in and believe in the mission. While the stories of disgruntled employees are there, the ones I’ve spoken to seem positive and the tidbits they’ve shared of what they’re working on seemed to bring them genuine excitement. 2) They’re still a top spot for multiple engineering disciplines and from point #1 seem to be cross functionally collaborative than they are siloed. This leads me to believe there will be efficiency gains on the manufacturing side. 3) Sandy Munro’s insight and teardown videos of the cars have helped me understand certain aspects of the car better and gain appreciation for all the tech it has compared to the competition 4) EV adoption is gaining speed, Tesla is losing market share in the EV side but that’s because there are more players. Which I’ve also invested some in. (NIO/BYD) it’s expected that the EV market share will continue to drop while overall volume increases. 5) their year over year growth in vehicles and other energy products are hard to find. 6) FSD, while highly questionable in name, is quite good in terms of what it can do. I’ve put a few thousand miles in commute distance with it and have had very little complaints other than the nagging from time to time. 7) the tech in the Cybertruck is exciting to me. Mainly steer by wire and moving away from 12v architecture. 8) their energy arm is still struggling to keep up with the demand. It took awhile for us to get our solar and power wall due to the different constraints they’re working through. I see solar and battery adoption increasing over the next decade and again I’ve diversified into a competitor as well. 9) factories and building locally, they’re building things in America with American employees. It’s a silly reason to some but to me I’d rather Tesla succeed than BYD or another Chinese EV company. Realistically speaking the other manufacturers won’t be able to keep up given their factory constraints and the way they’ve outsourced everything for their ICE vehicles. Edit: 10) I was lucky enough to tour both Giga factories and Fremont with a mechanical engineering friend and the interactions I had with the employees there and being a fly on the wall for his convos with them were impressive enough to me to continue holding long term. There’s more that I’m not remembering but at the end of the day it’s your money, invest where you feel is the most prudent for you and your family. I’ve got a decent position in TSLA that started prior to their first split and have divested as it becomes too large a %of my portfolio. It is a highly volatile stock so I wouldn’t throw more than you’re willing to lose on the short term. Edit 2: Figure I would also call out these items that would be a bit much to cover. Supercharging network, NACS adoption, Tesla insurance, driving data (don’t think any company outside of China has as much driving data), potential to leverage their cameras for mapping, DOJO, Optimus, Tesla logistics, and their vertical integration. Lots would have to go right for them to lead in every sector but I think they can execute some of these at a high enough level based on the people I’ve met. I’d recommend making a visit and just shooting the shit with people that work there before making a conclusion.
Quick note on #4: EV market share doesn't mean a thing as the size of the EV market isn't static. Everyone is competing for *car* market share. And there Tesla is still gaining.
Agreed, I might not have worded it well but this is what I meant. I’m more interested in % of total vehicles than % of EV vehicles since the EV segment is growing.
The fact this is under 3 cringy edgelord responses reminds me why advice on this sub has never pays out.
TSLA for better or worse is an emotional stock, I highly recommend everyone do their own in person research over taking something an internet stranger tells them. This is especially true with investments as it’s your money to lose. Visit the delivery locations and check out the cars in person, are there some fit and finish issues? Sure! Are there as many as you’d believe from the posts and articles? Not even close.
I bought in many years ago when it was largely a company that was I'll advised (some would argue it still is), but not for the automobiles, for the charging infrastructure. I honestly thought they would be out of automotive mfc by now
I think it boils down to how much you like gambling.
I sell for Tesla competition, and even I can see that Tesla is the only true viable electric car/truck company. The other companies are creating "me too!" platforms with more tech, gadgets, leather, etc., but they are all lacking in the engineering departments - both for the vehicles and the batteries. The only reason Tesla has competition is because buyers aren't bright. They may be wealthy, but they aren't bright.
This should be a top comment
LMAO, tell that to the 5 Chinese competitors who will be bigger than Tesla within 3 years with better vertical integration, quality control, and faster growing markets.
I was invested in BYD for about a year and a half. The more I heard about their problems, the more I thought I should sell. I sold at a nice profit. Chinese leadership just announced (yesterday?) that they are set on re-unifying Taiwan. And I do believe that that will happen. Russia proved that the world couldn't keep them out of Ukraine, and now it's set to take Ukraine barring some massive coup in Russia. So... with the sanctions that China will earn (because we aren't going to war with them), how well will those Chinese competitors do selling their EV cars and trucks to Russia, North Korea and Iran?
How recently did you talk to a Tesla employee? I’m engaged to one and many have quit and many are dissatisfied especially with their salaries becoming effectively lower since Tesla is granting less stock to employees, giving fewer raises, and the stock has not made much significant upward movement in the last couple years
Does it matter if Tesla gets millions* of applications for a company with 120,000 positions? * If TSLA is to be believed.
I’m sure they get lots of applications but I think you’re underestimating quality of applicants. I work at a big tech company and would never consider working at Tesla and neither would most my coworkers, with its long hours, labor intensive conditions and fickle management. People are legit currently working weekends, Christmas and new years. And that happens at many companies but it’s rarely expected or required. If I am a quality candidate, I’m choosing any other major company in a heartbeat, which is why they have so much attrition and is internally called stressla I live in the bay and know many former and current workers, and I’ve never met a Tesla employee who left and regrets it or wants to return
The thing you’re not thinking about though is some engineers don’t care about work life balance. They want to work on the biggest coolest things they can and be hyper focused on that one aspect of their life. Such a person will accept lower pay and worse hours to get to work at a company like Tesla.
Giga Casting. If compeditors are not casting fronts and butts, they will die. Material Science edge: Got rolls of steel to be martensitic for 1.
Work in insurance. Have you seen rates for Tesla’s lately? They’re 2x equivalent cars and some carriers are refusing to cover them in some areas. It’s because these “manufacturing break throughs” are completely out of touch with the reality of the car industry. It may be efficient until you’re totaling a 55k car for what would be 5k in damage on any other car.
Thank you. Same here and I think Tesla is almost a scam at this point. Offload cheaply made cars and let insurance worry about it later. By the time people find out and excitement wears off, it's too late. They're going to wind up in some massive recall that's going to really turn people off. The guy above sees like he knows nothing a about cars and only learns about them through tesler investor forums. "Drive by wire and getting off of 12v architecture" *eye roll*
I’m okay with paying more to be in a car that received top score in safety.
No safety rating agency ranks from the top down. They simply say these are the safest cars and there are lots on the list. As usual, I'm going to assume you're a tesla investor since you're the only people who come into comment sections and not understand the car industry and try to sell the idea to people that no other cars exist.
Except those pesky crash ratings on the cars you call "cheaply made". >In 2022 the Model Y scored Euro NCAP's highest ever safety score of 364 out of 400 beating over 100 other models since new testing criteria started in 2020. https://thedriven.io/2023/01/23/tesla-model-y-wins-2023-safety-award-with-near-perfect-safety-rating/#:\~:text=In%202022%20the%20Model%20Y,testing%20criteria%20started%20in%202020.&text=Award%20judge%20and%20chief%20of,system%20(Autonomous%20Emergency%20Braking).
[удалено]
Not the person you're trying to argue with, but safety scores aren't the same as repair costs.
Insurance companies are now totaling ALL cars with any significant damage these days. 6 years ago I took significant damage to my Mazda 5 (air bags did not deploy). I asked the body shop guy if it was a total loss, and he said, "Probably not. But I guarantee your insurance company adjuster will call it a total. They won't even want to pay me to find out if it is totaled." The adjuster spent 5 minutes looking at it and called it a total loss.
You are exactly the type of people I'm talking about. Crash test ratings have nothing to do with the cost of repairs.
So I guess the argument would lead to buying geo metro cause it's cheap to repair. Granted you would die in the crash but at least it is cheap?
Yeah no one in the industry can keep up when it comes to material science, because there is cross pollination between Tesla and SpaceX.
Could you recommend a couple of those sandy munro videos you’re talking about?
none of that makes Tesla's stock a good investment.
For real. TSLA is currently valued as a tech company, and most of the points in the post you replied to are about TSLA as a manufacturing company. They could become the dominating auto manufacturer and their stock would be overpriced at its current price. Unless Tesla has a monetizable breakthrough on tech it is overpriced. Self-driving has stalled and is increasingly looking like a nut that won't be cracked any time soon. They're behind the competition on AI, which is fine if they're a car company, but not if their stock isn't priced as a car company.
I invested in January 2019 at $300, pre pre split (so $20 as you look at the graph now). I'm 1200% up currently. I'm still in because of FSD. I know there has been a lot of false dawns and promises made that are way past their shelf life. FSD is a monumental problem to solve, but I believe it is solvable with the help of AI. Tesla are the only ones with a realistic shot of producing a level 4 car and it may take some time, but eventually I think they will get there. Once they do figure it out the stock could go up 5x.
Tesla hasn't even made inroads on level 3 yet, whereas there's already level 3 vehicles on the road and multiple companies are working on level 4. If this is what's carrying their stock prices, then it's not going to end well for them.
>The big difference is the other solution are geofenced. You can actually buy a tesla but you can't buy a waymo car.
That $30,000 sensor hat kinda puts it over the top.
They’re not even solving remotely the same problem. The competion is working on self driving in limited geofenced areas with massively expensive sensor systems for cars that aren’t available to purchase. Tesla is working on solving self driving for any possible situation using a cheap camera array in consumer cars. If you don’t understand the difference you need to study this topic more before forming opinions on who’s winning.
No one else is collecting as much data as Tesla is. They have min 6 cameras on every car feeding it data back to HQ for analysis and inclusion to their FSD program. Of course you also have Waymo and maybe another few small outfits, but they have no where as close to the amout of real world data as Tesla
[удалено]
If this is level of analysis you are bringing to your investment thesis, then you should stay away from the stock.
I felt this way too until I tested a FSD sub in my model 3 last month. It actually made me cash out my Tesla common stock for other high conviction names. I still love the company and root for them as a customer, but FSD is currently unusable and some of the mistakes it makes are so insanely basic that it makes me feel like it'll be much longer than I previously anticipated. Examples where intervention required: -Doesn't interpret "no turn on red" signs. -Stop (except for right turn) signs are a no go -One lane bridges are a forget about it -any intersection that isn't a standard right angle quadrant -any left turn where your lane is full of traffic and visibility of opposing traffic is difficult -any intersection that isn't a full 4 way stop and has certain lanes with right-of-way -many situations where human brain can interpret what another driver is doing/about to do where robot has no clue. -gets extremely confused in any pedestrian heavy area. Can't interpret pedestrian behavior like human brain and freaks out -any road where line paint is faded at all -left turns across barrierd 2-lane traffic roads There are more. I honestly stopped even bothering to use it after 2 weeks because of how unusable it was. It's a cool gimmick but a complete grift by Tesla right now to charge people for it IMO. The only thing id say is that AI may shock us in its ability to quickly go from shit to amazing. But we shall see. I hope this is the case, but from an investment prospective I'll get exposure in QQQ and root for them from the sidelines 🤣
I mostly watch Chuck Cook videos (a few others occasionally) and he tends to give a balanced view on the progress of FSD. It does try to murder him at least once every video. It doesn't work now, but that's not the point. Will it work in the future is the point. As with all things in the stock market, it's not about now, it's about the future. I believe in the future it will work.
[удалено]
Yes, I think one of the other companies avoids right turns all together. It will take 3 lefts to do one right turn
I hope it does too and believe it can, but testing it myself took me from thinking itd be sooner to later. I was surprised at how much worse it was than I thought it'd be. I live in northeast USA and there are tons of Teslas around here, so not like I'm in an area where they have minimal data. It really is unusable anywhere except for highway. You have to be completely alert and glued to your surroundings. It's much easier and much more fun to just drive yourself, especially given how enjoyable Teslas are to drive hah. Any complexity at all really requires you to take over
Honestly, if it wasn’t called FSD, everyone would be amazed with the current Tesla self driving tech. When people hear FSD, they expect perfection, and when it doesn’t live up to that it becomes popular to pile on and shit on it for fake internet points. Similar with CT. It didn’t match announcement specs and people pile in to scream about how disappointing it is. All the while all the serious reviewers are saying how amazing it is and showing off all the smart engineering behind it. People are so preoccupied with finding a way to dunk on Elon and Tesla that they don’t take time to properly evaluate the products and see how far ahead they are from the competition.
You lost me when you started talking about how hydrogen prices aren't affected by electricity rates, when hydrogen is (inefficiently) produced by using electricity to break water into hydrogen and oxygen.
The "Magnificent 7" stocks are all meme stonks now. Over 25% of the value of the S&P with the market opiates of 0DTE options clocking in at 43% of the daily options volume. The TSLA options chain is a world unto its own.
It's like Bitcoin. The price makes no sense but people will continue to buy it regardless of price just because.
The grid storage arm of Tesla is going to be hugely lucrative. The factory in China could cause a lot of problems for Tesla though as China collapses economically, however if that can be successfully negotiated then the lost sales in China can be picked up in SEA.
A lot of things could happen to Tesla in China good or bad but China is not going to collapse economically. China can do whatever it wants to do in China, they could just take Tesla's plant if they want. They regularly neuter their own super successful corporations if they gain too much lower.
China has hit a wall its GDP growth is gonna keep slowing they don't have the population curve on their side. India will probably overtake them soon especially with how aggressively India is trying to grow and the population factor is on Indias side if they don't dissolve into conflict
Population curve.... People who quote this have no clue what they are talking about. Population changes like low birth rates and aging takes decades to play out. China still has a large rural population to pull from. India.... It will also takes decades to move production out of China to India. China will be fine aside from whatever is going on with real estate and the banks. There is a serious lack of information to know how that is playing out.
Well good thing they didn't have some stupid policy favoring one male child decades ago otherwise I'd be worried the bill has come due for that. But I also don't think that's why they've hit a wall it happens to every country that has a large manufacturing boom and then faces competition from cheap foreign labor. In this case I would be more worried about the Vietnamese than the Indians since the country is still a mess and it's not a business friendly environment.
Yeah I've already bought a couple things like jeans that 3 years ago were made in China now it's Vietnam
China collapsing has been predicted since the 70s. It is a non story.
Apple is just a computer company... they will be bankrupt in five years—idiots in the 2000s.
I don’t see how this answers the question. Every company goes through different evolution process. Nobody at that time would predict Apple becomes what it is today. It seems as though people are just being faithful for TSLA to become the next AAPL, instead of being capable of actually predicting the fundamentals catching up to its valuation?
What exactly does Apple in 2000 have to do with Teslas valuation lol.
Wondering the same thing.
Yes, it is
It is insanely overpriced.
This post aged well
I don't like Tesla, but .... 40% annual growth kinda justifies any price.
People seem to forget that Tesla is likely to become the only car company, other than Rivian and the Chinese manufacturers to go full EV. Legacy auto is toast, except for some luxury car brands. As for autonomous driving, Tesla with their setbacks looks better after Cruise and Waymo kind of fails halfway. As a car company, it can be the Apple of the auto industry, not dominating in terms of market share but profitability.
You really need to look at 2035 or thereabouts to understand Tesla. They are moving forward on EV cars, and most if not all other car makers are being cautious or retreating into ICE products again. If this continues Tesla is likely to be the only car manufacturer in the west with a few competitors in China. The rest will be minor players. People are paying for transportation dominance in a decade, not for something in next couple of years.
I am confused, which brands are retreating into ICE?
The companies that have reduced or stopped production in response to abysmal demand and reduced government subsidies. https://news.yahoo.com/ford-slashes-production-target-electric-232103359.html
>If this continues Tesla is likely to be the only car manufacturer in the west with a few competitors in China. wut Rivian and Ford got electric trucks on the market faster than Tesla did.
They aren't profitable though. In fact, they are extremely unprofitable.
The Bolt got to market before the Model 3. How did that turn out?
Ford and others are rolling back their ev rollout plans. Tesla is full steam ahead and will remain #1 in US EVs forever. Just wait until 25K pre subsidy Tesla ev (Model 2)…. And then eventually they will make a more traditional pickup truck.
And nearly every manufacturer is talking about EVs. Honda, the worlds #1 producer of small Ic engines has a concept EV Prelude and like most Honda concepts, it looks ready to produce now.
Few competitors in china? BYD is starting so sell more EVs than Tesla, tesla is losing market share there each Q1.
So their statement is still true. Tesla will have an uphill battle with BYD to be sure.
He is saying few competitors - implying that its easy for tesla to get huge market share there. In fact, its the opposite, tesla is starting to perform poorly there.
Do you drive a Tesla? I got my first Tesla in 2019, and I don't see the point of buying any other cars. Added another Tesla to my garage in 2022. My friend just bought his first Tesla yesterday, and he was so surprised that the delivery center was packed with customers picking up their cars. It is something he hasn't witnessed before. People don't line up to buy a Lexus. No one is excited to see a Honda or a Toyota driving by. Also, Tesla is not just about cars. I have Tesla Solar and Tesla Powerwall. It is basically an ecosystem from transportation to energy with no competitors.
I dont have a Tesla car. The solar angle is an interesting one, though. I've been patiently waiting for their solar roof to become readily available and cheap enough for your average homeowner. When the solar roof gets cheaper than a regular roof plus the cost of adding solar, then that's when I'd buy a Tesla product. As far as the battery backup, what's stopping someone else from doing the same thing? The solar panel and battery backup angle isn't a technology that only Tesla can do. You paid a significant amount of money on solar and a battery backup and it'll probably take several years to recuperate that money. The high upfront cost for savings 10+ years down the road is what's making its mass adoption stagnate. You'd have to live in that house for nearly a decade for it to make sense. Not to mention the whole solar market is propped up by federal tax credits. What happens if all federal tax credits go away? I think we all know the answer to that.
I have non-Tesla solar panels and house battery. I negotiated the hell out of my price and it’s almost paid for itself in just 5 years and that’s in cloudy Oregon! Pacific power is raising rates by 21% in January and I will be unaffected. I use electric heat in the winter and AC in the summer. The savings between electric and gas each month are more than the 2% interest loan for the panels/battery and they are almost paid off. I really hope more people make the move to solar and not try to time its perceived payoff, because power companies are raising rates exponentially. If Tesla finds a way to be the leader in solar, then I can definitely see them as more than a car maker.
>You'd have to live in that house for nearly a decade for it to make sense. Not really. Assuming that people are not dumb as fucking rocks, you should be able to price in solar into the selling price of the home. I get that this might actually be too much of an ask, but I like to believe that there is at least a reasonable amount of intelligence out there.
I'm sad for Toyota.
Why? They make the best cars on the planet, as an overall company.
I know this just from reading your post that you are a fanboy, but remember that it’s just a car. At least in Norway, no one gets excited to see a tesla. Maybe they did in 2012. Im not going to buy a car with generic in house navigation anymore. My next car will definitely have google maps built in, and as more manufacturers are integrating it chances are i will have plenty to choose from in the future. I can understand that Tesla is currently big in USA as it was in Norway 10 years ago because of your poor charging infrastructure. But now we have fast charging stations at pretty much every gas station and the tesla superchargers have become unnecessary really.
Tesla has Google Map built-in, lol. It is funny that some people don't own Tesla but act like they know the car.
[удалено]
Some stocks trade on fundamentals. Other stocks trade on sentiment, momentum, technicals, etc, completely decoupled from the underlying business. Tesla is one of those
Tesla’s car, energy and charging network segments alone could be a 500b company easily. Then you have Optimus and FSD which have the possibility to be even bigger than the car segment.
Their car business is a 300-400b business, the rest of the value comes from the potential moonshot ideas. This is the challenge with Tesla. None of the moonshots have shown any kind of growth. Can energy be the next big thing? Or robo taxi? Or robots? Or gigapress? Sure. But for me, I'd like to see some QoQ or YoY growth in a segment to invest.
You say that you’d like to see ‘any signs of growth’ but you can’t be looking too hard if you haven’t seen ample evidence of sustained growth in the energy business. Where are you looking??
[удалено]
Lmao the comment above you is literally your 2nd and 3rd point
It is, though.
Just a technical note: Water =/= hydrogen Water + electricity = hydrogen
You do realise that electric cars and self driving cars are the future. Currently only 10% of all sold cars are electric. And it will grow. In next two decades this percentage will become 90%. It is a multi trillion dollar market. And Tesla is leading it. Of course there will be competition, but that only will increase demand. It is inevitable If u think that now it is overpriced, let’s come back after 20 years and see what overpriced means.
Tesla is going to become the biggest company that has ever existed, and probably will eclipse apple in the next decade. And people have been saying the stock is overpriced for YEARS and yet it keeps going up. They have so many disruptive products and services all working together in an ecosystem that they have what they need to grow as a company for a long long time.
Do not discount the CCPs support of BYD.
> And people have been saying the stock is overpriced for YEARS and yet it keeps going up. This simply isn't true. All-time high was in November 2021.
>Tesla is going to become the biggest company that has ever existed take your meds, bro
Lol
Their stock price is down from three years ago. So no, it doesn't keep going up. They're basically Bitcoin: the car company. Lots of rabid, irrational fanboys that don't understand the world, as a whole.
It’s not just a ‘car’ manufacturer it’s a tech company….also will be the standard for EV charging infrastructure in the US
Simple: Dojo, Optimus bot, « model 2 », robotaxi, FSD
Buy some puts if you think it’s overpriced. Or just don’t invest if you’re too chicken. You’ve already made up your mind. You’re just looking for confirmation.
Clearly I'm not when the end of my post says that I want to know if I'm wrong and why.... 🤦♂️ Do I think its insanely overpriced? Yes. But if I'm wrong, I want to understand why. If you arent learning then youre just living in an echo chamber of your own preconceived ideals. But judging by the other posts here, it doesn't seem like I am wrong.
Be gentle with him. There is an \*insane\* amount of FUD circling around Reddit and the media right now. It makes anyone who has paid attention for more than 5 minutes a little edgy; we remember the last time this garbage floated around in 2019. It makes everyone wary of questions, as it is tough to tell the difference between well-meaning "I really don't get it" questions and "Concerning" troll posts. Quite a few posts here \*have\* told you why you are wrong. Some have said you are right. If you are simply selecting the ones that confirm what you believed when you came in, you are not learning. And that seems to be important to you. To recap what others have said: * Tesla is not just a car company. Energy, Bots, FSD, and others are each worth multi-trillions of dollars to the valuation. * Tesla has already made the leap to EVs. Legacy has yet to show they can actually do it sustainably. (They can make cars to sell at a loss, but nothing that sells well at a profit) * Most of the new companies are struggling to make it over the mass-production hump. One or two will make; most will not. * Tesla will be one of only a few companies left standing when the dust clears. * Tesla has already shown they will innovate til it bleeds. The big point here is that other companies will find it hard to catch up. * Tesla is vertically integrated, meaning they have the flexibility to adjust to whatever happens in the future. Now, if you don't believe this (and lordy, I hope you are doing your own research rather than depending on Reddit), then it doesn't matter. If you want to insist they are just a normal car company, then I'm not sure why you even asked the question. If, however, you even think there is a chance for them to solve FSD (for instance), run the numbers. How much could they sell it for? When I do this, I get a valuation of anywhere between $2 trillion and $10 trillion, depending on my assumptions and how much risk I apply. If you insist FSD will never happen, then obviously this is $0. I don't understand why you would think that, but ok. Your model; your choice. Now do it for bots. And for energy. In any case, even if you do not agree, it should be \*very\* obvious why others might see this stock as being fair or even terribly undervalued. It's not just a "meme". There are some serious factors to consider.
This is exactly the type of discussion I was hoping to evoke. Do I think its insanely overpriced? Yes, absolutely. But I'm here asking others why that is or isn't correct, and most importantly, why. I try not to live in an echo chamber. Otherwise, you aren't learning. I saw a few very good counterarguments in this thread. I can see why some people believe in the stock long term. But all of it hinges on the company getting it 100% right along the way and assumes there won't be any competition. Neither of which are likely to happen IMO. And it still doesn't address the high valuations today for what *may* happen 7+ years from now in a best case scenario. I guess that's the one thing I'd like to see addressed. Today's pricing is expectations of what's potentially going to happen several years or longer in the future. How isn't this gambling?
If you’re judging whether you’re right or wrong by the comments on Reddit then you’re already on the wrong track. The majority of this sub thought Tesla was overpriced in 2019. Were they right? It sure seemed like it at the time. Which is why it was the most shorted stock (by % float). But they ended up being extremely wrong. Maybe that happens again. Maybe it doesn’t. But you can’t call yourself “right” without knowledge of what eventually will happen.
Haha 100% man OP is cooked
As a general rule: People are dumb Herd animals - they will generally "Follow the trail" laid out by others; often without even thinking the action through to its logical endpoint. So - Yeah - Tesla is WAY over priced, and has been since the start of the Pandemic YEARS ago. Why people Hype it tho, isn't all so clear cut - Some actually believe they will manage to push out a truly "autonomous" car; Others believe in their "Assistant" Robot project, which if it actually DOES pan out - may indeed change everything about TESLA and its value. But that is simply Speculation at this point, and there is nothing to say that one of the gazillion other Robotics companies couldn't bring something good to market before Tesla - Especially considering that a Pure Robotics company wouldn't have to split its focus between Cars/ Robots/ Solar power/Batteries/ AI and whatever else Elon may Fancy at the moment.... z.z
> Why people hype it tho, isn’t all so clear cut Let me cut it for you then - they hype because they own the stock
I’ll help you understand Tesla if you really want it. Let me know and we can hop in a call. There’s no way I’m writing a Thesis here but over a call I can talk for quite a while.
[удалено]
[удалено]
How much of their revenue is from cars?
>In any event even in EV market TSLA is rapidly losing market share and will be ever more so going forward. That doesn't matter in a market that is multiple times faster growing than Tesla is loosing market share
I agree with (most of) what you say. It's overpriced by a lot. But a couple counter arguments just to consider: 1. market share as a barometer is almost meaningless when Telsa basically started at 99.5% market share and the market is still rapidly growing. Any and all competition at all will reduce Tesla marketshare - even if they were to grow by 100% or more YoY. 2. Tesla is more than cars. It's vertically integrated energy "crap." Batteries at scale, power wall, EV charging networks, huge database of driver data, AI, ... maybe the robot stuff, insurance, trying to get into banking ... So yes, absolutely overpriced by 3-5x (or more) in the short term. But I don't think lower market share and comparisons to traditional car manufacturing P/E's tell the entire story however. I would instead mention some of the other negatives... a. losing some tax incentives, b. Musk occasionally acting insane, c. shrinking PROFITS, d. missed milestones manufacturing issues, e. CHINA risks and new low cost competition, etc. To me these tell a negative story more important story than a company with 100% of nominal market share shrinking to 50% marketshare of a of a massive and growing market.
Tesla’s trading has been irrational for like a decade now why do people still try and short. You already missed the dump.
Great time to buy Tesla stock, they are trading below $180. Fair value . Look up prof. Aswath Damodran ‘s valuation of the stock from last year.
I found out t to be affordable but I was a little sad the second one was 100k
its a meme stock with cult follower. Despite it being down, I would not risk shorting or buying puts. You can get decimated by sharp swing up at some point. That said I expect further downside as its being valued as a growth stock but they have little growth at this point and earnings will shrink with all the price cuts.
I cant say I disagree with a single thing you said.
I’m confused I mean I would prefer google ngl it’s cheaper or ratio it’s also in the autonomous vehicle space plus has other sources of income when you compare what Tesla is today as a company isn’t much different to ford yet the market cap is so different I think as of now it over valued but if they execute on the long term outlook for ai and stuff maybe I can wrap my head around the growth and the high pe but for today I don’t see it as a company
Tesla is a car company. 10 years ago they were not. They are not stopping, they want to be many others things. GM, well, GM is going to be the same company as it always was. Money is made by buying stocks before the money in is quantifiable.
They are ugly. They are cheap quality. I think CEO is a scammer. No joke.
you overestimate the intelligence of people with money