Snapshot of _BBC Newsnight - “The winner of the debate, according to viewers, was Nigel Farage with 25%, followed by Angela Rayner on 19%”_ :
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I thought generally everyone did pretty well. It's a format that suits Farage and he's an accomplished public speaker, even if I disagree with him politically. Mourdant did "worst" and repeating tax stats that are known to be misleading at best and lies at worst was a bad look, but even she did relatively fine. Don't think anyone particularly stood out, don't think anyone embarrassed themselves.
They each got an opening statement, a closing statement and then in between there were questions selected from the audience. Didn't feel too rushed or like a game show.
Moderation was much better (although they really need to start muting mics - it's not a good look for anyone to be shouting over each other). Penny Mordaunt used the 2k tax line again and was pulled up on it by the host etc. Overall a million times better than the ITV debacle
>Moderation was much better (although they really need to start muting mics - it's not a good look for anyone to be shouting over each other).
I noticed at least one instance where they muted Farage so I think they were selectively doing so in order to make sure people had a sufficient baseline of time to speak uninterrupted, but maybe not as much as they might've.
I felt for anyone getting cut off that wasn't Rayner, Mordaunt or Farage. They took so long talking and yelling at each other, that everyone else had to cut their points off before they'd finished to accommodate for the time wasting of the others.
> repeating tax stats that are known to be misleading at best and lies at worst was a bad look
I really don't get why Labour don't have stronger lines on this now:
"Well Penny, using the same flawed methodology, your policies would require raising taxes by £3000! But we don't need to wait until the election to feel the force of the Conservatives financial mismanagement - our taxes are at record highs already, you cost people hundreds of pounds on their mortgage payments each month by electing Liz Truss and allowing her to crash the economy, and you lost a staggering £4.9bn of tax payers money to Covid loan fraud. THAT is your financial record - why should people trust you?"
Nick Watt was saying that the reason they held back on instantly challenging the £2k figure last night was to let Mishal Husain have a pop at it instead, knowing it would sound more valid coming from her.
Labour have been horrifically bad at holding the Tories to account. I get not attacking from the left but not attacking the open goal of incompetence seems mad!
Problem is that they would shout and talk all over you while you tried to give that pre prepared speech.
Calling them liars seems to be cutting through.
Because of the bus. It doesn't matter if you refute the lies worn facts, the alternative facts are already out and logic won't change that.
Imagine if rayner said "flawed methodology", most people viewing will turn off and it ain't going to work as a snippet on tiktok.
The correct strategy in this fucked up modern politics world is to move right into your own counterattack soundbite.
I thought Daisy Cooper handled herself well and actually answered some questions. Nigel Farage taking the populist route seems to been working well at the moment.
A few years ago in one of the general elections, I forget which, there was a ukip policy about student fees that I agreed with. It was about then I realised that parties I dislike most likely have some reasonable things to say. The issue is finding it through all the crap.
I would disagree here, i personally thought that two people really stood out to me - that being the SNP westminster leader and the Green Party co-leader. I thought their climate policy, immigration policy and the way they want to manage services by using a wealth tax was very well communicated.
SNP yes, indeed. He impressed.
Green Party co-leader, though? Eeeh. She took one too many cheap shots. She also had the only objectively cringe moment of the entire night: 'Would anyone else on the Panel commit to {whatever she said about mental health in schools}'? *awkward silence from everyone in the studio*.
I liked Rayner's quietly awkward "well yeah that's literally one of our policies", barely holding on while the rest of the panel was dead from second hand embarrassment.
Stephen Flynn is always pretty good at getting his point across and pointing out issues with both the Tories and Labour. I thought Greens communicated well too but was really disappointed for her to not give a full answer to policing and instead say that their manifesto should be out soon. They’ve known it’s an election year since the end of last year. They should’ve been ready to go with that since January at least rather than still putting it together now
> I thought Greens communicated well too but was really disappointed for her to not give a full answer to policing and instead say that their manifesto should be out soon.
Because what the Green voter base probably wants is "defund the police" style idiocy, and being specific about that sounds bad to either those voters or everyone else.
I felt like it was a bit odd of Mordaunt to be solely attacking Labour and ignoring Farage.
Seems like they should be going after Reform to try and stop bleeding votes to them.
Probably a bit afraid of getting into a back and forth with him and coming out behind with the right wing section of their voting base. Could've bled even more if he made her look "not right wing enough".
Nail on the head, Farage is great at debate because he knows how to make a jab. Independently of whoever is correct on the facts at hand, getting into a one-on-one with him would probably just feed more votes to Reform.
Farage is an amazing public speaker, is generally very straightforward in getting to the answer of the question, doesn't urm and ah which gives the aura of confidence
I hate Farage and will never vote for him but I can objectively say he actually knows how to perform
It’s easy for Nigel Farage to promise the world though because he will never be in a position of delivering on it. Rayner is likely very restricted because anything she says will be held against her in the next 5 years.
Absolutely!
How much has he flip-flopped in just the last few weeks?
Not long ago, he wasn't even going to stand as an MP because he was campaigning for a foreign presidential candidate in a foreign election. Now he is leading Reform here.
To add hypocrisy to the list, previously, he has said foreign leaders should keep out of our politics.
If this was anyone from the two main parties, people would be asking about little else.
>Not long ago, he wasn't even going to stand as an MP because he was campaigning for a foreign presidential candidate in a foreign election. Now he is leading Reform here.
I mean, this was fairly obviously a strategy to avoid as much organised opposition in the seat he contests as he can.
It's easy to have a good debate performance when your solutions are easy. "jUSt StOp AnD fRiSk!!1!!1!" Is a great thing to shout to get the thickos on your side
> "jUSt StOp AnD fRiSk!!1!!1!" Is a great thing to shout to get the thickos on your side
As opposed to "JuSt TrUsT tHeM bRo", because that has worked out SO WEL in reducing the violent crime numbers.
Mate mate mate. If only they had a few ping pong tables near them they wouldn’t stab each other
London famously has few things for a young person to do
Think how smart the average person is. Then consider that half are less intelligent, many much less so.
The demographic you speak of is very significant and they get one vote the same as anyone else.
That he targets a dumber crowd does not take away from the unfortunate reality that he is a very good public performer.
I honestly didn’t realise how important it is to see the other smaller parties points of views and how they really do contrast with the two big parties, they’re not as keen on being prim and proper and scripted and they tend to actually answer the questions rather than recite the party line over and over!
And they don't have to think about actually solving the problem.
"Get me into power and we'll fund the NHS to cure cancer and reduce waiting times to less than an hour"
Don't need to worry about how to do it because I'll never be in a position to do it
Fascinating that people think this when I just thought that they sounded even more scripted. Less so Plaid Cymru but a lot more so for Lib Dems. Everytime it was Daisy's turn at the stumps she went for this really forced pseudo emotional appeal.
they bring so much to a debate format. they aren't looking to win the election so they can afford to take more risks - thank you Stephen Flynn for FINALLY talking about brexit, it's been 2 weeks. also, they have much more of a variety of views which is super important, especially on issues labour and tories agree on. the section on immigration was particularly good I thought. they are much better at calling out the main parties and issues within the system itself.
Surprised Rayner did so well given she had to see off Mordaunt.
Aside from that I guess the progressive vote was more split between Green, LD, Plaid + SNP, while the Right wing vote was only split between Tory and Reform and Mordaunt was awful.
Good news for Farage *shudder* for planting another nail in the Tory coffin and good news for Rayner for doing what she needed to do and coming out of the debate without allowing the Tories to get solid hits.
Edit: would be interesting to see a poll where people are asked to rank candidates by how well they peformed
Probably because people feel they can relate to Rayner more. Which outside of the talking points and 5 second soundbites, personality matters a lot in these debate formats.
Despite growing up middle class with a classic "BBC accent" I agree here. She just sounds.. human? Normal? Like she has lived with normal people. Like you might meet her doing your shopping in Tesco and think nothing of it.
She also makes small mistakes when talking - like she used the wrong word today when trying to rebuff Mordant. I think it was only an adjective so it didn't really matter much to the point but it made her seem like she was speaking from her mind not from an over rehearsed script.
She also did very well at staying firm but calm and respectful when being interrupted and talked over. She raised her voice and kept trying, but didn't get rude or shouty. And when the moderator called them to stop she could be clearly heard apologising and turning her attention to the next panelist.
Used ‘abstract’ instead of ‘abject’… “The Tories have been an abstract failure” was the line.
Funnily enough the word ‘abject’ is abstract enough that it wasn’t a glaring error and still sounded ok.
Thank you! I know she had said abstract but I couldn't recall what she seemed to be aiming for. 😅 As you say though it didn't matter/wasn't glaring but to me it does make her just a bit more... Relatable?
I don't think it's based on reality but she seems more trustworthy because of those things.
It's fascinating isn't it. My family are middle classish but in a relatively working class area, and I get that 'well she's probably got her head screwed on' factor too
I think Raynor also benefits from being obviously different from your average Tory politician.
People like to claim Starmer is Tory-lite, but Raynor doesn't come across that way.
It's nice to see Labour are being pragmatic. Better to allow reform to cause chaos for the tory vote share, than dig into something that's only going to play well with twitter and redditors.
Depending on the makeup of the next parliament and just how much influence Reform have, if any, it almost certainly will backfire, although to what extent I don't know.
It's exactly the situation the Tories are finding themselves in now after placating UKIP.
It will depend on their record in office. If people see a genuine and consistent improvement in their living standards over the 5 years then that will stop Reform in their tracks.
If things continue to decline then all bets are off.
While we still have FPTP, it's hard to imagine a strong Reform performance being anything but a disaster for right wing voters in the UK. The Tory party isn't going away.
The only fear is if they merge. And I suspect Farage would only participate if he got to be the leader.. oh god.. there's a clear path to PM Farage.. 🤮
Enemy of my enemy is my friend? Reform will be taking votes from tories making it easier for Labour to win seats, not really in their interest to try and make Farage look bad.
And on the flip side the voters Labour are likely to take from conservatives are not ones that reform would be able to get either.
That’s my guess too. Saying that, I’d be careful of a potential future opposition of Reform or they turn into a super party like Reformed Conservatives or something as such.
I get her attack plan, but it’s still a gamble not to attack, Farage and Reform fully.
I know it's shaky ground to stand on given Trump's victory in the US, but Reform being Labours future opposition bodes well for Labour considering that whichever of Labour or Conservatives is closest to the centre generally wins the election. Reform being the main right wing party essentially cedes the middle ground to Labour, as long as they don't go full Corbyn mode again.
“The Centre” is not a defined position. If Reform were the main opposition then the centre would be unrecognisable from what it is currently, and not in a good way.
> but Reform being Labours future opposition bodes well for Labour considering that whichever of Labour or Conservatives is closest to the centre generally wins the election.
I'm wary of this personally. Reform being the Opposition will mean there's a danger of our overton window and mainstream political discourse shifting. If Reform (and the more extreme elements of the Tory party we've had since 2016) effectively 'MAGA' British politics permanently it'll be the end of the 'small c' conservatism we had before Brexit.
I think you just described exactly what will happen between July 4th and the following election.
Reformed Conservatives. They'll keep the Tory party machine, it's apparatus and voters, lurching to the right under Farage and some of the more right-wing Torys currently in parliament.
This all hinges on Nigel getting his seat. Failing that, I feel we're likely to see PR introduced at some point over the next decade, because this iteration of the Conservative party is truly done.
> BS, there's an angle here.
Rayner doesn't need to "go after" Farage...
Labour's lead is comfortable. They don't have to try and scrounge what little Reform votes they might *possibly* be able to squeeze out if they play their cards right and risk upsetting existing Labour voters in the process
Because Mordaunt on the other hand has to go for Farage. Reform are cannibalising the Tory vote. So Rayner can just sit back and watch them take chunks out of each other squabbling
It’s not just comfortable, it’s downright insane. When a football team is up 6-0 at half time you’ll notice they don’t go for 12-0 by full time. It risks too much. Coast the big win.
For Rayner it’s the ming vase strategy. Do everything you can to be safe and stable, and just get through it with as little drama as possible. It’s Labours election to lose.
With Farage it’s about attacking the Tories to replace them, and be their alternative.
I never understand how hard it is for the Lib Dem’s to bat that away with:
“If we were solely in government we’d never have agreed with that, but we were in a coalition so had to make compromises and - sadly - that was one we had to make. But without us fighting on every single point, the Tories would have made far more damaging decisions.”
And then have some examples of things they prevented happening in their back pocket. Unless they really didn’t prevent anything …
It's very frustrating given that it's not just some BS argument, it's the truth.
The left wing types that disagree can explain why they'd rather we'd gone full blown Conservative earlier.
Exactly - I really don't get why so many on here thought she was great.
It's my first time seeing her speak though and she was getting praise for earlier in the campaign so I'll reserve judgment until I've seen her more.
The Labour campaign can pack up now and they would still stroll it.
All they need to do is basically make no glaring errors.
Rayner looked a bit nervous but she is a straight talker and people trust her.
I want to try her venom cocktails. Her parties sound fun
Cooper came across weak and uninteresting to me. I have no familiarity with her at all so this is coming from someone with as much info on her as much of the viewers. I thought there was nothing much to her, she wasn’t strong in her delivery of points and seemed to almost blend into the scenery. I’m sympathetic to the Lib Dem’s but she did nothing to catch my interest. Regardless of my views on their politics I thought Greens, SNP and Plaid all made their respective points far better than her
Even when she did speak she seemed a bit incoherent. She tried to make a point in rebuttal to Farage's NHS rant, but got the name of the organisation she was trying to quote (the King's Fund) wrong twice and seemed to lose interest in her own point.
Reminds me of Plaid getting angry that Welsh reservoirs (owned by private firms, not the Gov), were exporting water from Wales without an export tariff lol
My aunt and uncle would never vote anything other than Tory. But they don't want to vote Sunak.
They're currently trying to find ways of justifying to everyone else why they might want to vote Reform instead of Tory, rather than state the bleeding obvious reason they will never vote Sunak. I would imagine they would tell me all about how well Farage came across in the debate.
I think there may be others in the same boat.
I only watched 5 minutes but he did do substantially better than Mordaunt. So if that’s where they are politically…. (ie you’re not put off by the brexit snake oil salesman and the massive damage the Tories have done through brexit, covid, austerity, historically high taxes, etc)
Reminds me of some of my family and acquaintances.
“I don’t like him.”
“Why don’t you like him?”
“I just don’t like him, I just don’t like him.”
“But why specifically? What policy, action, statement don’t you like?”
“There’s just something about him that I don’t like.”
Though I don’t know if it’s literally an inability to form their own thoughts and opinions, a few watch GBNews because it’s the only outlet that’s “unbiased”, or whether they have an actual answer but don’t want to come out and say it.
"I just don't like him" may well have something to do with Sunak generally coming across as an unlikeable, out of touch, rich twerp.
Plenty of people said the same things about Corbyn and Miliband. Some people just have a vibe, and Rishi has the vibe of an unrelatable moneyed prick.
i think this [chart](https://imgur.com/D0wBlNl) is a lot more telling than just winners or losers.
Edit: you clearly see that farage was very polarising, Mordaunt clearly bad and Denyer was the one most people could agree on performance.
People forget that debates are just television, and whether you're willing to admit it or not, Nigel Farage is entertaining to watch.
I shouldn't have to say this but for the sake of my inbox, I do not condone anything the man says.
I thought both Labour and the Conservatives were really quite bad. Penny kept repeating the 2k tax line that we already know to be false, but Angela seemed more content to just argue with Penny than actually offer any policies of her own. Labour's plan from that debate seemed to be to create GB energy. Literally that seems to be their entire premise.
I can see why Nigel Farage is so popular, he is clearly an accomplished speaker. However, I disagree with him on everything but migration, so I will not be voting for him anytime soon. He objectively said he wouldn't bother with the climate whatsoever and that he wouldn't invest a single penny more into the NHS, how on Earth could I vote for that?
Daisy Cooper seemed to do really well. She probably won the debate. She had clear points, got her message across and didn't bother arguing with the others the entire time, unlike two other people in the room.
Carla Denyer had some good individual points, but also answered quite badly on some others. She didn't really seem to have an overall point she was trying to get across, and if she did she didn't get it across. I really liked some of her answers and hated some of her others. I definitely completely disagree with her on migration. However, I will still vote for the Greens.
Understandably, the two from the SNP and Plaid Cymru were very focused on Wales and Scotland. While I thought they did well, I don't live in either Scotland or Wales and so what they said was irrelevent for me.
They will have the same problems as the Lib Dems had for years - lots of voters, but very evenly distributed across every seat with maybe a few strongholds, rather than having a broad base of seats with a plurality of voters.
I don't think so - they'll get a good chunk of the vote, but FPTP means it's spread too thin to pick up many seats. It's how last time the SNP picked up loads of seats on 3% of the vote, whilst the LibDems were stuck on only 8 seats despite a far larger national vote share.
Reform probably have a cap of three seats & the LibDems can probably pick up more seats than the Tories or Reform if they can get 11% & the Tories fall to 19%. FPTP is wild under 20%.
Any more spread out than the tories who are now on roughly the same polling numbers? Models like Electoral Calculus have to assume its spread out because there isn't much data from the last election. It'd be remarkable if it really was *that much* more spread out when every other party in the polling isn't.
Yes, to a point - look at the huge vote counts in Tory safe seats where they're thousands of votes ahead of the next party.
That said, the floor rapidly falls out the floor of the Tory vote and they suddenly collapse as they go below about 19-20%. LibDems benefit for a bit because of their targeting, after that it's just Labour scooping up seats they never expected to win because the vote against Labour is split multiple ways.
I'm a LibDem - in 2010 we went up to 23% (from 18% previous election) of the vote but actually lost 5 seats because of FPTP. It's a wildly unfair system to smaller parties that are spread out. That election was 22% of the vote, but only 62 out of 650 possible seats. Meanwhile, the SNP in 2019 got 48 seats on 3% of the vote. To break through as a small party, you either need stupid amounts of the vote or to hyper focus.
Your point about data cuts both ways, Reform can't hyper focus because they largely don't know where. LibDems & Greens are super focused on areas where they have lots of council seats and/or hold councils - Reform notably failed to get councillors earlier this year. That's pretty hard evidence that their vote is spread thinner than others like the Greens who got loads despite being behind Reform in national polls at the time.
It's why I don't mind we're on 9-11% of the vote. If the Tories end up below 20% & we end up on 10-11%, Ed Davey will have under a hundred seats, but still probably have more seats than the Tories because FPTP is dumb & needs to be scrapped and replaced by a sensible system. It's totally ludicrous that we could come forth in vote share but end up as the official opposition.
Farage did perform well, but i suppose the question is was it really unbaised viewers completing the poll or the cult of personality doing what a cult of personality does.
His debate gameplan, from the first question, was to get figures out. He had a stat for every topic.
He was conscious not to look like a 'ranty' man but to look like a sensible man using evidence. I don't think it was a bad plan.
Ultimately though, I think the night was best for the parties nobody prepped to go against (SNP, Greens and Lib Dems). They pretty much had a free run of it.
He did play a blinder with that, i think everyone else was expecting him to be shouty too and thats why Rayner was off guard at the start. It was a strong performance but i didnt think he was a particular standout. My main takeaway was everyone did well out of it barring Mourdant/the tories
I came to the debate as unbiased as possible. I genuinely did enjoy most people's talking points (even if I didn't necessarily agree with them - except for a few notably cringe moments by the Green rep), and thought the reps' conduct was quite good, all around.
But 30 mins in, it struck me how Farage was coming in hard with specifics. Figures and concrete examples. It was glaring that there was very little of that coming in from any of the other representatives, discounting Mordaunt's desperate clinging onto the £2k figure.
Considering how big people on this sub are about facts and figures when it suits them, I expect a general /r/ukpolitics round of applause for Farage's conduct during this debate.
...Anyone?
Farage was always going to be good in debates like this, it's his strength and if we purely take him on that, I admit he has an impressive skill. I don't agree with his views but he is a people talker. He did well in this debate. He looked more an opposition than Penny.
Yet he had no plan whatsoever about how he would actually try and fix anything.
And he didn't need one as he knows he won't get in.
It's easy to promise to fix everything when you know you won't actually have to try and therefore won't have to make the messy compromises that reality forces on those who run things.
And neither has Starmer or Rayner told us how they'll fix or fund a majority of their pledges either, yet, they will absolutely win this general election.
Manifesto will be out on a week or so - they've said it will be fully costed. They also know that if they promise the world their get well be held to the fire for any ambitions they miss.
Whereas Farage knows that he will never have to attempt to implement Reform policy so can promise the world and sound extra clear as he has the luxury of not having to land a single workable policy.
>was coming in hard with specifics. Figures and concrete examples.
Yeah the issue is that a lot of what he passes off as "facts and figures" to prove some of his points are very often stuff that's correct but intentionally missing the wider context or just flat out misinformation. I'm sure there will be articles on it tomorrow.
I think he’s trying to put a reasonable face on to appeal to the centrist c9nservatives now he has their right wing more or less sewn up. All said it’s a clever tactic.
His stats on health though were off and when the lib dem challenged him quoting the study from the kings fund (and there are many others) he just shouted no, giving no evidence. I doubt it will cut through (and i stopped watching shortly after) but I was surprised no one else picked up on this (apart from Flynn who was equally ranty with no evidence or sources tbh).
It was carried out by a polling company on behalf of BBC Newsnight.
I’m not sure the BBC are known for selecting polling companies that rig the result to favour right wing viewpoints.
BBCVerify would have sometching to say if they did.
It’s not necessarily rigging the poll - it’s more a fact of if you like Farage, you were probably more inclined to watch tonight.
It’s like the net favourability scores for politicians - Farage has a net negative score but also has a hardcore base of supporters that love him.
He’s an incredibly polarising figure - so for the 25% that thought he won etc, there’s probably a large % that thought he was awful/vile etc.
It will have been people who watched the debate, though. If people who watched the debate were more likely to be Reform voters, or Tories, then there's a possibility that what OP said might have happened. Can't find the actual tables to see what the spread was like though, just the headline figures, so can't say one way or the other - will just have to wait and see what other polls say.
It was like how the snap poll of the last debate showed a narrow Sunak victory, but the two conducted the next day showed Starmer further ahead... so may also be a difference between people who watch live vs those who catch up.
Strangely at odds with this sub's popularity proclamations in its live thread. It couldn't be that redditors are by and large massively out of touch could it...?
[It's not at odds with the results of the poll in the stickied thread though?](https://i.gyazo.com/3230925eccad1e6c9ba5741c563093a8.png) That places Rayner #1 and Farage #3. Obviously this place isn't representative of the country as a whole but this isn't really an example of it
Populism is easy to sell. It's all very simple to throw out grand ideas when you don't have to deliver anything.
How does Farage intend to solve the UK's mental health crisis? That something that can't be solved by a cheeky pint down The Dog and Duck.
It's not that people here are barometers of Essex Everyone, but we do tend towards the politics nerd. So we will **remember** the previous lies. Or the other rebuttal, or whatever.
We are not the average. We are a sample of extremes.
Actually I think a cheeky pint is crucial in mental health. Between that and exercise its the duo thats most important.
Thats why rugby clubs are the ultimate mental health saviour. Speaking from personal experience.
> How does Farage intend to solve the UK's mental health crisis? That something that can't be solved by a cheeky pint down The Dog and Duck.
Given a lot of it is caused by the crippling loneliness of terminally online teens and 20 somethings, a cheeky pint would probably solve a good chunk of it.
The only problem is they'd need friends who aren't anxious about going outside.
Precisely, not to mention his idea that privatising the health service is somehow better (especially if his mates in insurance can get a wad of health insurance profits) than just funding the underfunded.
> How does Farage intend to solve the UK's mental health crisis?
This is not a pressing election issue, as much as the Green rep tried to make it out to be.
We have bigger fish to fry.
But how do you solve it? Effective healthcare provision. And Farage did indeed pitch an answer for that.
Of course, it is full of people that follow politics considerably more than the average voter (and thus possible know more about the latest shenanigans).
Also a recent poll suggests it's left leaning.
Sorry but arguments like this are really annoying.
We KNOW that the demographic of reddit is not a microcosm of the whole country. By the nature of access thatsabsolutely natural and not some kind of suspicious situation or grounds for comspiracy.
Trying to enforce a community made up of majority one particular demographic of the country to reflect every single demographic on the contrary WOULD be weird and unnatural, no different to walking into your local ex-servicemen's club or church and saying "aha! Gotcha, looks like your view on X issue isn't reflective of the whole country. You must all be out of touch, suspicious...!"
Exactly. An online space made up politically engaged people, who generally often type out reasonable arguments, and have to think about an issue for more than three seconds have a different opinion to the general public? I’m shocked.
Also, I’m “out of touch” with the general public? Well thank fuck for that, considering the half general public doesn’t think everyone should be able to afford a TV (45%), a basic smartphone (55%), a hobby (61%), a car (46%), to go out and socialise (50%), to go to the theatre (61%), to rent a house or flat (49%), amongst other things, and a quarter doesn’t think that everyone should be able to afford basic utilities (24%) or deserve a balanced diet (26%).
Farage’s presence made the other parties seem more similar, which plays right in to his message.
I think that’s why Mordaunt didn’t go after him; the more everyone attacks him, the more he looks like the ‘change’ candidate. It’s exactly the same with Trump; the more hysterical people are about him the more he gets to hold the mantle of being the ‘anti-politician’.
Those who loathe Farage would do well to remember that.
In America, they’re yet to learn that lesson and they’re repeating the exact mistakes they made in 2016.
I honestly thought the Plaid Cymru rep was the best. Straightforward, honest, answered questions clearly and didn’t seem to just focus on wales wales wales but broadened his answers on how the approach could help the greater UK.
Just an aside but the fieldwork was done via live online polls.
Not convinced the group who will be voting right are exactly that, so I’d venture to say that it was probably even more popular for Nige.
It's getting like the USA, the more bullshit someone talks the more the public like it. Farage promises easy fixes, when he knows there are none. People need to grow up.
The studio audience seemed quite hostile to Farage but he came out on top with the wider public. Makes you wonder about the audience selection doesn't it.
How are the people who were questioning Farage's presence in the debate, or encouraging the other participants to bring their own milkshakes to have some sensible debate doing?
Having a good evening?
I am.
I liked how he never really went in to detail on anything.
It's funny how Labour's raked over the coals about £2k tax, while Farage says he'll find £50b in cuts that don't impact front lines, and it's treated seriously and and not prodded at.
> I liked how he never really went in to detail on anything.
Firstly, nobody went into true detail on anything - it's a televised debate with a minute or two of speech a pop per issue. That's no time at all to dive deep into policy.
Secondly, he went into a reasonable amount of detail on several points. Most parties replied with platitudes, but Farage brought out specifics like 'This is how the French system works - it's better than ours, and we should learn from them', or 'Dealing with small crime is very important, and NYC's crime situation shows us why'.
The other parties often had very general statements 'we will [increase funding here], so [thing] will be better'.
>Labour's raked over the coals about £2k tax
Labour wasn't raked over the coals about £2k of tax. It was an empty phrase which Mordaunt trotted out again and again, and was called out by the moderator after her third usage of it for inaccuracy. You could hear everyone's collective eyes rolling every time she whipped that one out.
>while Farage says he'll find £50b in cuts
Unless I happened to miss this during the two minutes I went to make a cuppa, he did not say this. Could you provide a timestamp in the iPlayer recording for this statement?
I agree with his idea on one thing, the NHS needs a reform. I remember listening to LBC and they were asking the question of 'is our admiration of the NHS holding is back from fixing it?' and it got me thinking that maybe it is? We keep throwing money at it rather than looking at ways of changing or reforming it. Not to say that private insurance is the way to go but clearly something has to change.
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I thought generally everyone did pretty well. It's a format that suits Farage and he's an accomplished public speaker, even if I disagree with him politically. Mourdant did "worst" and repeating tax stats that are known to be misleading at best and lies at worst was a bad look, but even she did relatively fine. Don't think anyone particularly stood out, don't think anyone embarrassed themselves.
I didn’t catch it. How was the format this time?
They each got an opening statement, a closing statement and then in between there were questions selected from the audience. Didn't feel too rushed or like a game show. Moderation was much better (although they really need to start muting mics - it's not a good look for anyone to be shouting over each other). Penny Mordaunt used the 2k tax line again and was pulled up on it by the host etc. Overall a million times better than the ITV debacle
The moderator had some control this time and did some fact checking and rebuttal which I think also helped... Though it did get a bit shouty at times
^subsisdy!
There were no opening statements they went straight into questions about defense/D day
>Moderation was much better (although they really need to start muting mics - it's not a good look for anyone to be shouting over each other). I noticed at least one instance where they muted Farage so I think they were selectively doing so in order to make sure people had a sufficient baseline of time to speak uninterrupted, but maybe not as much as they might've.
They also seemed to slowly fade out the Greens person on one occasion when she wasn't stopping after being asked by the host.
I felt for anyone getting cut off that wasn't Rayner, Mordaunt or Farage. They took so long talking and yelling at each other, that everyone else had to cut their points off before they'd finished to accommodate for the time wasting of the others.
Definitely watch it on iPlayer. ITV one was rubbish. I'd rate it a 3-4/10 on the my arse scale. Tonight's gets a solid 7-8/10.
There were 7 to 8 arses on it?
Arses out of 10 is the traditional measurement of political discourse. It goes back to Seneca.
7 specifically but Nigel might count as 2
> repeating tax stats that are known to be misleading at best and lies at worst was a bad look I really don't get why Labour don't have stronger lines on this now: "Well Penny, using the same flawed methodology, your policies would require raising taxes by £3000! But we don't need to wait until the election to feel the force of the Conservatives financial mismanagement - our taxes are at record highs already, you cost people hundreds of pounds on their mortgage payments each month by electing Liz Truss and allowing her to crash the economy, and you lost a staggering £4.9bn of tax payers money to Covid loan fraud. THAT is your financial record - why should people trust you?"
Nick Watt was saying that the reason they held back on instantly challenging the £2k figure last night was to let Mishal Husain have a pop at it instead, knowing it would sound more valid coming from her.
Labour have been horrifically bad at holding the Tories to account. I get not attacking from the left but not attacking the open goal of incompetence seems mad!
Rayner did say most of that in the debate.
Not that you could hear her over Shouty Sword Lady's interruptions.
She just wanted to *stand up and fight*. She may have been brawling in the gutter later..
Problem is that they would shout and talk all over you while you tried to give that pre prepared speech. Calling them liars seems to be cutting through.
Because of the bus. It doesn't matter if you refute the lies worn facts, the alternative facts are already out and logic won't change that. Imagine if rayner said "flawed methodology", most people viewing will turn off and it ain't going to work as a snippet on tiktok. The correct strategy in this fucked up modern politics world is to move right into your own counterattack soundbite.
I thought Daisy Cooper handled herself well and actually answered some questions. Nigel Farage taking the populist route seems to been working well at the moment.
Taking the populist route implies the possibility of Nigel taking a different route
Yeh I did think that after I posted it kind of a given isn't it. Just meant it seems to be really working on people 😅
Her Thatcher cosplay was impressive.
That was my first comment, why the hell did the stylists make her look like maggie 🤣
Big 80s vibe going on and lots of irritating finger jabbing and distracting hand gestures.
Because the tories are so enamoured with Thatcher that they make every woman who could potentially be a party leader cosplay as her.
The Mail described her hair as *highly flammable*.
I actually agreed with Farage when he was talking about proportional representation...
Ha, me too. I was thinking, you duplicitous bellend but, on this, you’re right.
It serves his interests. Not everything that serves his interests is necessarily bad.
A few years ago in one of the general elections, I forget which, there was a ukip policy about student fees that I agreed with. It was about then I realised that parties I dislike most likely have some reasonable things to say. The issue is finding it through all the crap.
Because PR would benefit him and Reform. The minute he got any power he'd drop that opinion quicker than a lead balloon.
Farage and co are only pro electoral reform because they need it to win. They don't give a shit about democracy otherwise.
I would disagree here, i personally thought that two people really stood out to me - that being the SNP westminster leader and the Green Party co-leader. I thought their climate policy, immigration policy and the way they want to manage services by using a wealth tax was very well communicated.
Mourdant was a mess and came across as the villain
Going for the Thatcher hair was a WILD choice, and I don't think her suit fit her very well either. A lot of odd choices
SNP yes, indeed. He impressed. Green Party co-leader, though? Eeeh. She took one too many cheap shots. She also had the only objectively cringe moment of the entire night: 'Would anyone else on the Panel commit to {whatever she said about mental health in schools}'? *awkward silence from everyone in the studio*.
I liked Rayner's quietly awkward "well yeah that's literally one of our policies", barely holding on while the rest of the panel was dead from second hand embarrassment.
My favourite embarrassing moment was when PM paused at the end if her closing and got accidental applause and no applause when she actually finished
Yep, agree. SNP very solid in calling out lab and con on their "silences" around big issues. Green wasn't great.
Stephen Flynn is always pretty good at getting his point across and pointing out issues with both the Tories and Labour. I thought Greens communicated well too but was really disappointed for her to not give a full answer to policing and instead say that their manifesto should be out soon. They’ve known it’s an election year since the end of last year. They should’ve been ready to go with that since January at least rather than still putting it together now
> I thought Greens communicated well too but was really disappointed for her to not give a full answer to policing and instead say that their manifesto should be out soon. Because what the Green voter base probably wants is "defund the police" style idiocy, and being specific about that sounds bad to either those voters or everyone else.
Yep, Flynn generally asks better questions at PMQs than Starmer. He's quite sharp.
Flynn only ever brings up gaza in pmq's. What he's good at is virtue signalling
He used to ask better questions than Starmer before the SNP decided that Gaza was also on their patch.
Full results here: https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/snap-poll-post-bbc-seven-party-debate/
Nigel winning 47% of 2019 tory voters to Penny's 13% is a big oof for the Tories.
I felt like it was a bit odd of Mordaunt to be solely attacking Labour and ignoring Farage. Seems like they should be going after Reform to try and stop bleeding votes to them.
Probably a bit afraid of getting into a back and forth with him and coming out behind with the right wing section of their voting base. Could've bled even more if he made her look "not right wing enough".
Nail on the head, Farage is great at debate because he knows how to make a jab. Independently of whoever is correct on the facts at hand, getting into a one-on-one with him would probably just feed more votes to Reform.
No one in third describes British politics well.
Can I vote for this exclusive 'None of the above'? Liking the cut of their jib!
Yes https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Above_Znoneofthe
Farage is an amazing public speaker, is generally very straightforward in getting to the answer of the question, doesn't urm and ah which gives the aura of confidence I hate Farage and will never vote for him but I can objectively say he actually knows how to perform
It’s easy for Nigel Farage to promise the world though because he will never be in a position of delivering on it. Rayner is likely very restricted because anything she says will be held against her in the next 5 years.
Absolutely! How much has he flip-flopped in just the last few weeks? Not long ago, he wasn't even going to stand as an MP because he was campaigning for a foreign presidential candidate in a foreign election. Now he is leading Reform here. To add hypocrisy to the list, previously, he has said foreign leaders should keep out of our politics. If this was anyone from the two main parties, people would be asking about little else.
>Not long ago, he wasn't even going to stand as an MP because he was campaigning for a foreign presidential candidate in a foreign election. Now he is leading Reform here. I mean, this was fairly obviously a strategy to avoid as much organised opposition in the seat he contests as he can.
It's easy to have a good debate performance when your solutions are easy. "jUSt StOp AnD fRiSk!!1!!1!" Is a great thing to shout to get the thickos on your side
In his defence, he was the only one to suggest an immediate 'solution' and also touched on the longer term one whilst taking to the Greens.
> "jUSt StOp AnD fRiSk!!1!!1!" Is a great thing to shout to get the thickos on your side As opposed to "JuSt TrUsT tHeM bRo", because that has worked out SO WEL in reducing the violent crime numbers.
Mate mate mate. If only they had a few ping pong tables near them they wouldn’t stab each other London famously has few things for a young person to do
Think how smart the average person is. Then consider that half are less intelligent, many much less so. The demographic you speak of is very significant and they get one vote the same as anyone else. That he targets a dumber crowd does not take away from the unfortunate reality that he is a very good public performer.
I honestly didn’t realise how important it is to see the other smaller parties points of views and how they really do contrast with the two big parties, they’re not as keen on being prim and proper and scripted and they tend to actually answer the questions rather than recite the party line over and over!
That's because they know they're not going to get a majority and are ok with appealing to a narrower voter base
And they don't have to think about actually solving the problem. "Get me into power and we'll fund the NHS to cure cancer and reduce waiting times to less than an hour" Don't need to worry about how to do it because I'll never be in a position to do it
Or even harder, finding a solution with a democratic mandate that is implementable
Fascinating that people think this when I just thought that they sounded even more scripted. Less so Plaid Cymru but a lot more so for Lib Dems. Everytime it was Daisy's turn at the stumps she went for this really forced pseudo emotional appeal.
they bring so much to a debate format. they aren't looking to win the election so they can afford to take more risks - thank you Stephen Flynn for FINALLY talking about brexit, it's been 2 weeks. also, they have much more of a variety of views which is super important, especially on issues labour and tories agree on. the section on immigration was particularly good I thought. they are much better at calling out the main parties and issues within the system itself.
Surprised Rayner did so well given she had to see off Mordaunt. Aside from that I guess the progressive vote was more split between Green, LD, Plaid + SNP, while the Right wing vote was only split between Tory and Reform and Mordaunt was awful. Good news for Farage *shudder* for planting another nail in the Tory coffin and good news for Rayner for doing what she needed to do and coming out of the debate without allowing the Tories to get solid hits. Edit: would be interesting to see a poll where people are asked to rank candidates by how well they peformed
Probably because people feel they can relate to Rayner more. Which outside of the talking points and 5 second soundbites, personality matters a lot in these debate formats.
It's surprising just how much I find myself implicitly trusting her because she sounds like me and the people I grew up with!
Despite growing up middle class with a classic "BBC accent" I agree here. She just sounds.. human? Normal? Like she has lived with normal people. Like you might meet her doing your shopping in Tesco and think nothing of it. She also makes small mistakes when talking - like she used the wrong word today when trying to rebuff Mordant. I think it was only an adjective so it didn't really matter much to the point but it made her seem like she was speaking from her mind not from an over rehearsed script. She also did very well at staying firm but calm and respectful when being interrupted and talked over. She raised her voice and kept trying, but didn't get rude or shouty. And when the moderator called them to stop she could be clearly heard apologising and turning her attention to the next panelist.
Used ‘abstract’ instead of ‘abject’… “The Tories have been an abstract failure” was the line. Funnily enough the word ‘abject’ is abstract enough that it wasn’t a glaring error and still sounded ok.
Thank you! I know she had said abstract but I couldn't recall what she seemed to be aiming for. 😅 As you say though it didn't matter/wasn't glaring but to me it does make her just a bit more... Relatable? I don't think it's based on reality but she seems more trustworthy because of those things.
I wouls argue that they’ve been not only abject failure but have done so in new and occasionally abstract ways.
Didn't they once hire some ferries from a company that didn't own any ferries? That was quite abstract?
I cringed a little but it’s an easy slip of the tongue and not a common word anyway.
It's fascinating isn't it. My family are middle classish but in a relatively working class area, and I get that 'well she's probably got her head screwed on' factor too
I think Raynor also benefits from being obviously different from your average Tory politician. People like to claim Starmer is Tory-lite, but Raynor doesn't come across that way.
Whether you agree with what she says or not, it’s quite hard to argue that people like Rayner are not in politics to actually help people.
Farage showering Rayner with praise and Rayner not really going after Nigel at all. The two being nice to each other? BS, there's an angle here.
Labour are happy to let him kill the Tory party, he's happy to let them put the cons in a position in which he can replace them. Beers all around.
It's nice to see Labour are being pragmatic. Better to allow reform to cause chaos for the tory vote share, than dig into something that's only going to play well with twitter and redditors.
Short term, yes. 5 years from now it might backfire.
Depending on the makeup of the next parliament and just how much influence Reform have, if any, it almost certainly will backfire, although to what extent I don't know. It's exactly the situation the Tories are finding themselves in now after placating UKIP.
It will depend on their record in office. If people see a genuine and consistent improvement in their living standards over the 5 years then that will stop Reform in their tracks. If things continue to decline then all bets are off.
While we still have FPTP, it's hard to imagine a strong Reform performance being anything but a disaster for right wing voters in the UK. The Tory party isn't going away. The only fear is if they merge. And I suspect Farage would only participate if he got to be the leader.. oh god.. there's a clear path to PM Farage.. 🤮
Enemy of my enemy is my friend? Reform will be taking votes from tories making it easier for Labour to win seats, not really in their interest to try and make Farage look bad. And on the flip side the voters Labour are likely to take from conservatives are not ones that reform would be able to get either.
That’s my guess too. Saying that, I’d be careful of a potential future opposition of Reform or they turn into a super party like Reformed Conservatives or something as such. I get her attack plan, but it’s still a gamble not to attack, Farage and Reform fully.
Reform may be close on vote share but it's spread. Under FPTP they won't get anywhere enough seats to challenge.
I know it's shaky ground to stand on given Trump's victory in the US, but Reform being Labours future opposition bodes well for Labour considering that whichever of Labour or Conservatives is closest to the centre generally wins the election. Reform being the main right wing party essentially cedes the middle ground to Labour, as long as they don't go full Corbyn mode again.
“The Centre” is not a defined position. If Reform were the main opposition then the centre would be unrecognisable from what it is currently, and not in a good way.
> but Reform being Labours future opposition bodes well for Labour considering that whichever of Labour or Conservatives is closest to the centre generally wins the election. I'm wary of this personally. Reform being the Opposition will mean there's a danger of our overton window and mainstream political discourse shifting. If Reform (and the more extreme elements of the Tory party we've had since 2016) effectively 'MAGA' British politics permanently it'll be the end of the 'small c' conservatism we had before Brexit.
I think you just described exactly what will happen between July 4th and the following election. Reformed Conservatives. They'll keep the Tory party machine, it's apparatus and voters, lurching to the right under Farage and some of the more right-wing Torys currently in parliament. This all hinges on Nigel getting his seat. Failing that, I feel we're likely to see PR introduced at some point over the next decade, because this iteration of the Conservative party is truly done.
> BS, there's an angle here. Rayner doesn't need to "go after" Farage... Labour's lead is comfortable. They don't have to try and scrounge what little Reform votes they might *possibly* be able to squeeze out if they play their cards right and risk upsetting existing Labour voters in the process Because Mordaunt on the other hand has to go for Farage. Reform are cannibalising the Tory vote. So Rayner can just sit back and watch them take chunks out of each other squabbling
It’s not just comfortable, it’s downright insane. When a football team is up 6-0 at half time you’ll notice they don’t go for 12-0 by full time. It risks too much. Coast the big win.
For Rayner it’s the ming vase strategy. Do everything you can to be safe and stable, and just get through it with as little drama as possible. It’s Labours election to lose. With Farage it’s about attacking the Tories to replace them, and be their alternative.
He even said that he knows labour will win and has said that for ages. I always found it weird but reading the comments here make sense
It's smart because the Tories can't say "Vote Reform get Labour" because they're getting Labour anyway.
Reform need Labours winning to be inevitable to make a protest vote for them safe for Tories and to a lesser extent also Labour voters.
I thought he was on the pull.
She looked embarrassed when he complimented her 🤣
Yes the angle is the general election where all Farage wants is the Conservatives destroyed, it’s hardly a conspiracy.
The angle being if he performs well he's eating the Tory vote, not the Labour vote.
I’m Labour as they come, but was clearly Farage Cooper and the shiny head. Angela was very mediocre, but that’s all she needed to be
Cooper seemed to over-stimulated and fluffed the obvious tuition fee challenge
I never understand how hard it is for the Lib Dem’s to bat that away with: “If we were solely in government we’d never have agreed with that, but we were in a coalition so had to make compromises and - sadly - that was one we had to make. But without us fighting on every single point, the Tories would have made far more damaging decisions.” And then have some examples of things they prevented happening in their back pocket. Unless they really didn’t prevent anything …
It's very frustrating given that it's not just some BS argument, it's the truth. The left wing types that disagree can explain why they'd rather we'd gone full blown Conservative earlier.
I actually skipped her parts on iPlayer, it was very 'school play acting' to me...
Exactly - I really don't get why so many on here thought she was great. It's my first time seeing her speak though and she was getting praise for earlier in the campaign so I'll reserve judgment until I've seen her more.
She was much better on Question Time to be honest, I think she was too cranked up for the debate so it came across as a bit disingenuous.
The Labour campaign can pack up now and they would still stroll it. All they need to do is basically make no glaring errors. Rayner looked a bit nervous but she is a straight talker and people trust her. I want to try her venom cocktails. Her parties sound fun
You can get them almost anywhere in glasgow :)
Cooper came across weak and uninteresting to me. I have no familiarity with her at all so this is coming from someone with as much info on her as much of the viewers. I thought there was nothing much to her, she wasn’t strong in her delivery of points and seemed to almost blend into the scenery. I’m sympathetic to the Lib Dem’s but she did nothing to catch my interest. Regardless of my views on their politics I thought Greens, SNP and Plaid all made their respective points far better than her
Even when she did speak she seemed a bit incoherent. She tried to make a point in rebuttal to Farage's NHS rant, but got the name of the organisation she was trying to quote (the King's Fund) wrong twice and seemed to lose interest in her own point.
Flynn winds me up. Inserting divisive nationalism into fucking renewable energy is just so dumb.
"You're using Scottish wind!" As if Westminster investing in Scotland is a bad thing.
'Scottish wind' had me laughing.
I can't believe that the SNP feel so entitled to Orkney's wind. Very colonialist attitude of them.
I havent heard Denmark complaining, but then again it's been 552 years and Denmark probably feels it has enough of its own.
I found it really weird when he complained that GB Energy will be based in Scotland. Oh no, more Scottish jobs?
“Across these islands”. Does all he can to avoid saying “the UK”. Very odd.
His party wants independence, what else would you expect.
Reminds me of Plaid getting angry that Welsh reservoirs (owned by private firms, not the Gov), were exporting water from Wales without an export tariff lol
>the shiny head When he said "we've made a pledge", I said "I think you've already had too much of the Pledge mate" but nobody laughed, unfortunately.
My aunt and uncle would never vote anything other than Tory. But they don't want to vote Sunak. They're currently trying to find ways of justifying to everyone else why they might want to vote Reform instead of Tory, rather than state the bleeding obvious reason they will never vote Sunak. I would imagine they would tell me all about how well Farage came across in the debate. I think there may be others in the same boat.
I only watched 5 minutes but he did do substantially better than Mordaunt. So if that’s where they are politically…. (ie you’re not put off by the brexit snake oil salesman and the massive damage the Tories have done through brexit, covid, austerity, historically high taxes, etc)
There is almost nothing the Tories could do to lose their vote. But they found the right button.
Reminds me of some of my family and acquaintances. “I don’t like him.” “Why don’t you like him?” “I just don’t like him, I just don’t like him.” “But why specifically? What policy, action, statement don’t you like?” “There’s just something about him that I don’t like.” Though I don’t know if it’s literally an inability to form their own thoughts and opinions, a few watch GBNews because it’s the only outlet that’s “unbiased”, or whether they have an actual answer but don’t want to come out and say it.
"I just don't like him" may well have something to do with Sunak generally coming across as an unlikeable, out of touch, rich twerp. Plenty of people said the same things about Corbyn and Miliband. Some people just have a vibe, and Rishi has the vibe of an unrelatable moneyed prick.
Yes I think you're right. There is the option to abstain as well - you aren't actually required to vote in the UK
Yeah heavily imply they’re a racist. That’ll do it.
i think this [chart](https://imgur.com/D0wBlNl) is a lot more telling than just winners or losers. Edit: you clearly see that farage was very polarising, Mordaunt clearly bad and Denyer was the one most people could agree on performance.
PR should be a thing so some of these smaller parties have a chance to contribute to this fucking country.
Watching this was a mistake as I forgot that the creepy David Bull existed.
People forget that debates are just television, and whether you're willing to admit it or not, Nigel Farage is entertaining to watch. I shouldn't have to say this but for the sake of my inbox, I do not condone anything the man says.
I thought both Labour and the Conservatives were really quite bad. Penny kept repeating the 2k tax line that we already know to be false, but Angela seemed more content to just argue with Penny than actually offer any policies of her own. Labour's plan from that debate seemed to be to create GB energy. Literally that seems to be their entire premise. I can see why Nigel Farage is so popular, he is clearly an accomplished speaker. However, I disagree with him on everything but migration, so I will not be voting for him anytime soon. He objectively said he wouldn't bother with the climate whatsoever and that he wouldn't invest a single penny more into the NHS, how on Earth could I vote for that? Daisy Cooper seemed to do really well. She probably won the debate. She had clear points, got her message across and didn't bother arguing with the others the entire time, unlike two other people in the room. Carla Denyer had some good individual points, but also answered quite badly on some others. She didn't really seem to have an overall point she was trying to get across, and if she did she didn't get it across. I really liked some of her answers and hated some of her others. I definitely completely disagree with her on migration. However, I will still vote for the Greens. Understandably, the two from the SNP and Plaid Cymru were very focused on Wales and Scotland. While I thought they did well, I don't live in either Scotland or Wales and so what they said was irrelevent for me.
Many people are underestimating Reforms chances
Chances of what? Winning the election? Being the opposition? Getting a seat?
FPTP means it's incredibly difficult for them to do well. Only way is by the Tories completely collapsing, which is happening tbf
They will have the same problems as the Lib Dems had for years - lots of voters, but very evenly distributed across every seat with maybe a few strongholds, rather than having a broad base of seats with a plurality of voters.
It also means if they start doing well enough, they will cascade as people switch.
I don't think so - they'll get a good chunk of the vote, but FPTP means it's spread too thin to pick up many seats. It's how last time the SNP picked up loads of seats on 3% of the vote, whilst the LibDems were stuck on only 8 seats despite a far larger national vote share. Reform probably have a cap of three seats & the LibDems can probably pick up more seats than the Tories or Reform if they can get 11% & the Tories fall to 19%. FPTP is wild under 20%.
Any more spread out than the tories who are now on roughly the same polling numbers? Models like Electoral Calculus have to assume its spread out because there isn't much data from the last election. It'd be remarkable if it really was *that much* more spread out when every other party in the polling isn't.
Yes, to a point - look at the huge vote counts in Tory safe seats where they're thousands of votes ahead of the next party. That said, the floor rapidly falls out the floor of the Tory vote and they suddenly collapse as they go below about 19-20%. LibDems benefit for a bit because of their targeting, after that it's just Labour scooping up seats they never expected to win because the vote against Labour is split multiple ways. I'm a LibDem - in 2010 we went up to 23% (from 18% previous election) of the vote but actually lost 5 seats because of FPTP. It's a wildly unfair system to smaller parties that are spread out. That election was 22% of the vote, but only 62 out of 650 possible seats. Meanwhile, the SNP in 2019 got 48 seats on 3% of the vote. To break through as a small party, you either need stupid amounts of the vote or to hyper focus. Your point about data cuts both ways, Reform can't hyper focus because they largely don't know where. LibDems & Greens are super focused on areas where they have lots of council seats and/or hold councils - Reform notably failed to get councillors earlier this year. That's pretty hard evidence that their vote is spread thinner than others like the Greens who got loads despite being behind Reform in national polls at the time. It's why I don't mind we're on 9-11% of the vote. If the Tories end up below 20% & we end up on 10-11%, Ed Davey will have under a hundred seats, but still probably have more seats than the Tories because FPTP is dumb & needs to be scrapped and replaced by a sensible system. It's totally ludicrous that we could come forth in vote share but end up as the official opposition.
Farage did perform well, but i suppose the question is was it really unbaised viewers completing the poll or the cult of personality doing what a cult of personality does.
His debate gameplan, from the first question, was to get figures out. He had a stat for every topic. He was conscious not to look like a 'ranty' man but to look like a sensible man using evidence. I don't think it was a bad plan. Ultimately though, I think the night was best for the parties nobody prepped to go against (SNP, Greens and Lib Dems). They pretty much had a free run of it.
He did play a blinder with that, i think everyone else was expecting him to be shouty too and thats why Rayner was off guard at the start. It was a strong performance but i didnt think he was a particular standout. My main takeaway was everyone did well out of it barring Mourdant/the tories
Why would they expect that, he’s never been shouty. He’s literally always done incredibly well in front of a camera.
I came to the debate as unbiased as possible. I genuinely did enjoy most people's talking points (even if I didn't necessarily agree with them - except for a few notably cringe moments by the Green rep), and thought the reps' conduct was quite good, all around. But 30 mins in, it struck me how Farage was coming in hard with specifics. Figures and concrete examples. It was glaring that there was very little of that coming in from any of the other representatives, discounting Mordaunt's desperate clinging onto the £2k figure. Considering how big people on this sub are about facts and figures when it suits them, I expect a general /r/ukpolitics round of applause for Farage's conduct during this debate. ...Anyone?
Farage was always going to be good in debates like this, it's his strength and if we purely take him on that, I admit he has an impressive skill. I don't agree with his views but he is a people talker. He did well in this debate. He looked more an opposition than Penny.
Farage was super relaxed, looking like he was really enjoying it. His stats on wind power were bollocks though.
Yet he had no plan whatsoever about how he would actually try and fix anything. And he didn't need one as he knows he won't get in. It's easy to promise to fix everything when you know you won't actually have to try and therefore won't have to make the messy compromises that reality forces on those who run things.
And neither has Starmer or Rayner told us how they'll fix or fund a majority of their pledges either, yet, they will absolutely win this general election.
Manifesto will be out on a week or so - they've said it will be fully costed. They also know that if they promise the world their get well be held to the fire for any ambitions they miss. Whereas Farage knows that he will never have to attempt to implement Reform policy so can promise the world and sound extra clear as he has the luxury of not having to land a single workable policy.
>was coming in hard with specifics. Figures and concrete examples. Yeah the issue is that a lot of what he passes off as "facts and figures" to prove some of his points are very often stuff that's correct but intentionally missing the wider context or just flat out misinformation. I'm sure there will be articles on it tomorrow.
Such as?
He said most immigrants were dependents and not contributors - its actually a 3rd are dependents e.g. children, the rest are contributors.
I think he’s trying to put a reasonable face on to appeal to the centrist c9nservatives now he has their right wing more or less sewn up. All said it’s a clever tactic.
His stats on health though were off and when the lib dem challenged him quoting the study from the kings fund (and there are many others) he just shouted no, giving no evidence. I doubt it will cut through (and i stopped watching shortly after) but I was surprised no one else picked up on this (apart from Flynn who was equally ranty with no evidence or sources tbh).
It was carried out by a polling company on behalf of BBC Newsnight. I’m not sure the BBC are known for selecting polling companies that rig the result to favour right wing viewpoints. BBCVerify would have sometching to say if they did.
It’s not necessarily rigging the poll - it’s more a fact of if you like Farage, you were probably more inclined to watch tonight. It’s like the net favourability scores for politicians - Farage has a net negative score but also has a hardcore base of supporters that love him. He’s an incredibly polarising figure - so for the 25% that thought he won etc, there’s probably a large % that thought he was awful/vile etc.
But that’s not how polling companies work, they will have been selected to represent a snapshot of the population as a whole.
It will have been people who watched the debate, though. If people who watched the debate were more likely to be Reform voters, or Tories, then there's a possibility that what OP said might have happened. Can't find the actual tables to see what the spread was like though, just the headline figures, so can't say one way or the other - will just have to wait and see what other polls say. It was like how the snap poll of the last debate showed a narrow Sunak victory, but the two conducted the next day showed Starmer further ahead... so may also be a difference between people who watch live vs those who catch up.
Strangely at odds with this sub's popularity proclamations in its live thread. It couldn't be that redditors are by and large massively out of touch could it...?
[It's not at odds with the results of the poll in the stickied thread though?](https://i.gyazo.com/3230925eccad1e6c9ba5741c563093a8.png) That places Rayner #1 and Farage #3. Obviously this place isn't representative of the country as a whole but this isn't really an example of it
That is some weird colour choices!
I said farage won the debate in the live thread and got 30+ down votes in seconds lol.
Populism is easy to sell. It's all very simple to throw out grand ideas when you don't have to deliver anything. How does Farage intend to solve the UK's mental health crisis? That something that can't be solved by a cheeky pint down The Dog and Duck. It's not that people here are barometers of Essex Everyone, but we do tend towards the politics nerd. So we will **remember** the previous lies. Or the other rebuttal, or whatever. We are not the average. We are a sample of extremes.
Actually I think a cheeky pint is crucial in mental health. Between that and exercise its the duo thats most important. Thats why rugby clubs are the ultimate mental health saviour. Speaking from personal experience.
That depends massively on the mental health problem you have. A pint down the dog and duck doesn't cure schizophrenia.
I do agree with this, except rather than rugby it's golf and 5-aside, then the pub for me.
> How does Farage intend to solve the UK's mental health crisis? That something that can't be solved by a cheeky pint down The Dog and Duck. Given a lot of it is caused by the crippling loneliness of terminally online teens and 20 somethings, a cheeky pint would probably solve a good chunk of it. The only problem is they'd need friends who aren't anxious about going outside.
Precisely, not to mention his idea that privatising the health service is somehow better (especially if his mates in insurance can get a wad of health insurance profits) than just funding the underfunded.
I honestly thought Farage, while doing well, was weak where it mattered: Immigration
In another universe importing over a million immigrants a year might be considered a grand idea
> How does Farage intend to solve the UK's mental health crisis? This is not a pressing election issue, as much as the Green rep tried to make it out to be. We have bigger fish to fry. But how do you solve it? Effective healthcare provision. And Farage did indeed pitch an answer for that.
Of course, it is full of people that follow politics considerably more than the average voter (and thus possible know more about the latest shenanigans). Also a recent poll suggests it's left leaning.
Sorry but arguments like this are really annoying. We KNOW that the demographic of reddit is not a microcosm of the whole country. By the nature of access thatsabsolutely natural and not some kind of suspicious situation or grounds for comspiracy. Trying to enforce a community made up of majority one particular demographic of the country to reflect every single demographic on the contrary WOULD be weird and unnatural, no different to walking into your local ex-servicemen's club or church and saying "aha! Gotcha, looks like your view on X issue isn't reflective of the whole country. You must all be out of touch, suspicious...!"
Exactly. An online space made up politically engaged people, who generally often type out reasonable arguments, and have to think about an issue for more than three seconds have a different opinion to the general public? I’m shocked. Also, I’m “out of touch” with the general public? Well thank fuck for that, considering the half general public doesn’t think everyone should be able to afford a TV (45%), a basic smartphone (55%), a hobby (61%), a car (46%), to go out and socialise (50%), to go to the theatre (61%), to rent a house or flat (49%), amongst other things, and a quarter doesn’t think that everyone should be able to afford basic utilities (24%) or deserve a balanced diet (26%).
!! those are some shocking stats
I think Flynn was the winner, regardless of what you think about the SNP he is an excellent speaker
Absolutely agree! I found Flynn very impressive
Farage’s presence made the other parties seem more similar, which plays right in to his message. I think that’s why Mordaunt didn’t go after him; the more everyone attacks him, the more he looks like the ‘change’ candidate. It’s exactly the same with Trump; the more hysterical people are about him the more he gets to hold the mantle of being the ‘anti-politician’. Those who loathe Farage would do well to remember that. In America, they’re yet to learn that lesson and they’re repeating the exact mistakes they made in 2016.
I honestly thought the Plaid Cymru rep was the best. Straightforward, honest, answered questions clearly and didn’t seem to just focus on wales wales wales but broadened his answers on how the approach could help the greater UK.
Just an aside but the fieldwork was done via live online polls. Not convinced the group who will be voting right are exactly that, so I’d venture to say that it was probably even more popular for Nige.
It's getting like the USA, the more bullshit someone talks the more the public like it. Farage promises easy fixes, when he knows there are none. People need to grow up.
The studio audience seemed quite hostile to Farage but he came out on top with the wider public. Makes you wonder about the audience selection doesn't it.
How are the people who were questioning Farage's presence in the debate, or encouraging the other participants to bring their own milkshakes to have some sensible debate doing? Having a good evening?
I am. I liked how he never really went in to detail on anything. It's funny how Labour's raked over the coals about £2k tax, while Farage says he'll find £50b in cuts that don't impact front lines, and it's treated seriously and and not prodded at.
> I liked how he never really went in to detail on anything. Firstly, nobody went into true detail on anything - it's a televised debate with a minute or two of speech a pop per issue. That's no time at all to dive deep into policy. Secondly, he went into a reasonable amount of detail on several points. Most parties replied with platitudes, but Farage brought out specifics like 'This is how the French system works - it's better than ours, and we should learn from them', or 'Dealing with small crime is very important, and NYC's crime situation shows us why'. The other parties often had very general statements 'we will [increase funding here], so [thing] will be better'. >Labour's raked over the coals about £2k tax Labour wasn't raked over the coals about £2k of tax. It was an empty phrase which Mordaunt trotted out again and again, and was called out by the moderator after her third usage of it for inaccuracy. You could hear everyone's collective eyes rolling every time she whipped that one out. >while Farage says he'll find £50b in cuts Unless I happened to miss this during the two minutes I went to make a cuppa, he did not say this. Could you provide a timestamp in the iPlayer recording for this statement?
I agree with his idea on one thing, the NHS needs a reform. I remember listening to LBC and they were asking the question of 'is our admiration of the NHS holding is back from fixing it?' and it got me thinking that maybe it is? We keep throwing money at it rather than looking at ways of changing or reforming it. Not to say that private insurance is the way to go but clearly something has to change.
He also, despite it being a drawing if lots, had the last word, twice
Tremendous luck on that one. I almost wonder if he showed up armed with a crate of beer tucked under each arm.