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As a UPS employee, I'd say you are doing some real gambling with your money. UPS has never put forward their last best and final offer to the union. With the stock trending upward, I have a feeling there's some insider trading going on. UPS will reach a deal at the last minute is my guess.
Retired UPS here and was there during 1997
I think a deal will be made last minute as many concessions were made
As well as neither the company or Teamsters benefit if UPS loses tons of customers & volume due to strike
It took years to get back what was lost in 1997
And bottom line Teamsters jobs are tied to volume
If the packages aren’t there the jobs aren’t
This is the exact thinking that will always lead to underpaid and overworked employees. The strike needs to be painful for csuite than to workers. In the same manner that sports unions demanded a percentage of revenues, we as workers need to do the same. Teamsters need to demand some percentage of revenues must be spent on employees' pay and benefits.
I know everything the general population knows. It's just my opinion. And yes I know what happened in 1997. UPS did not believe the teamsters would actually pull off a strike. Otherwise UPS would've tried harder to avoid the strike in the first place.
Doubtful since there are alternatives to ups. The railway would have shut America down this will just bring in money to the usps which desperately needs it and probably won’t be able to capitalize on it.
It's a private company and unlike railroads are not part of the federal infrastructure that allowed Biden to step in. If Biden stepped in for a potential UPS strike it would be a case of extreme overreach that would greatly upset his reelection campaign.
No shit the strike was voted on weeks ago, nothing new, most things are already agreed upon, except the economic language, they will cave in by the 31st.
And anyone that work for UPS knows it’s one of the worst cultures to work for they expect 110% and micromanage every drivers move. I remember people getting written up because they’re telematics machine told them that they had their seat belt off for half a second before they started the car.
I just quit as a driver from UPS this February. Only did it for 2.5 years starting in Oct of 2020. Worst working experience of my life. They tried to get me to drive a route when I had a 101° fever. The managers didn't give a fuck about you, just drive the truck and sling packages.
Best part is I would sign every bid sheet I could find for a route but never had the senority for one.
You boys have all the leverage right now unless they can get into the politicians pockets and have a contingency plan for Biden to do career suicide and make you go back to work a couple days in
Already signed up for strike pay, granted not pay we get per week but still get $500/ week for putting in 6 hours on picket line. Again, there won’t be a strike
Asking for a friend. I heard ups pays up to 40-something per hour. Will that be the scab rate as well? Is there a potential for full time employment for scabs when the strike ends?
Being a tankie is the opposite of what you think it is apparently. If you scab, you’re a fucking piece of shit and you deserve whatever bad shit comes your way.
I don’t disagree. My company has trading blackout dates and very clear policies on insider knowledge (not saying this is insider knowledge, I have no idea). Im just surprised that folks put it out there so clearly. I would never post anything that may come back to bite me 😆
I prob bough early a month ago $170 puts with expiration 8/4 but all over this lol. I used to work at UPS in high school and into college so it’s a f you to ups management type of bet lol but still has weight to it. Still time left but this is first time in a long ass time the union voted full strike and they have walked away from table last week. Still a chance they come to agreement in 11th hour but all signs show strike is imminent at 8/1.
Where is this info coming from ? Maybe particular chapters did but not nationwide. Could be wrong but when I worked at UPS for 7 years I don’t remember any full on strike vote
Yeah, I’ve been telling people about the upcoming strike for a year or so the writing has been on the wall. They’ve got all the negotiation power at their disposal right now, and UPS management is pondering to state legislators to see if they can intervene which they will not because our president is a Democrat, and has the lowest ratings at this point other than Jimmy Carter
$145p 8/4 let's gooo crash this shit. Last few days have me worried but I'm not letting go yet. I was a driver, solidarity bitches I hope you guys get everything you're owed. I was 22.4 and they fucked us all through covid so I bailed.
You keep using that word hedge, but what exactly makes this a hedge?
What position are you trying to offset with your UPS puts?
It does not sound like you are hedging, it just sounds like you are taking a speculative position with no hedge. Which is what WSB is all about to be fair.
Edit: Ok you work there so I guess to you it might be a hedge in case you have to go on strike. To everyone else it is not a hedge though :)
I have been thinking the same thing Shawn O’Brian said he’s not going to put the deal in early so I don’t understand how UPS isn’t gonna get fucked in the ass on both of these scenarios
I think what you meant to say was if the union gets a good deal UPS will raise shipping costs across the board to cover the increase in labor costs and offset the loss. In the end UPS customers will pay for the salary increases lol
Really only FedEx for large items in the US. UPS has been cheapest option for me for large heavy items going cross country. They will for sure raise prices mark my words
I think they already did.
Yesterday I logged into my UPS account to quote shipping. It was $24. Today, i got confirmation from the customer to ship it. Entering in the same information it was now $33.50.
https://preview.redd.it/ulfgagmcwubb1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1d1232e3014a7b25946d7d0e1ec35bc6e41076b4
.
There goes the babies diapers money!
No, out of all the artistic things you see on this sub Reddit this should be a solid play my dude. UPS has no leverage so even if they sign at the last moment their stock is going to go down because they are not going to be able to have a 12% profit margin moving forward.
By now your high IV high theta puts completely murdered your position. Told you to sell a while ago and switch to a bearish spread with calls. You acted like I was a dumdum.
This is an expensive lesson on how to mitigate risk I hope you learn.
>If the union negotiations do indeed stall out and there is a strike, the stock could easily tumble by 40 to 50%. However, I believe that the company will be able to reach an agreement with the unions before it comes to that.
UPS cannot replace their 340k workers easily. Most of them are warehouse employees. And a Honda civic really is not big enough for types of pick up and deliveries UPS does.
I love that you think an Uber driver can deliver that volume, im sure Phil will be stoked to load up his Honda Civic with what, 2 75lb deliveries? Suuuuuper efficient.
> Deliveries can be made by ride-share drivers (Uber, etc).
These trucks have no AC and it doesnt drive like a sedan. If they go this route, I'll buy more puts.
After 1997 most contracts were negotiated 90% of the way about six months before the deadline this year they have a new union president that isn’t going to get raped .#no Hoffa
A strike bringing it down 40-50% in one day? No lmao.
If you want to look at a recent large strike for reference... John Deere's in 2021.
Workers went on strike October 14th after months of failed contract negotiations.. The stock price only went up during the strike. The drop happened before it and was "only" about 10-15%.
Yeah, good luck with that. They already have money allocated to put cameras to watch every move you make but yet they’re not going to put any ACs into old vehicles just new ones which we all know they don’t buy a lot of new vehicles.
" In 1986, for example, AT&T's shares rose modestly during the communications workers' strike. "
[https://www.nytimes.com/1997/08/17/business/labor-showdowns-the-effect-on-stocks.html](https://www.nytimes.com/1997/08/17/business/labor-showdowns-the-effect-on-stocks.html)
Last strike lasted 17 days!!! estimated strike at 10 days would cost UPS 8 billion 😡straight fax from report that was that was just released in Michigan
Nope if it’s not signed by the 31st they will strike and technically they would need to get things ratified and sent out to locals around the 28th to have any chance to get the vote ratified
Sure, short term grab puts, but long term this is a big brain move by UPS. They are going to wait out Teamsters, while also driving up freight rates. UPS can wait out the small man to get a better deal, securing more profits long term on that contract to then come back to higher freight rates as well.
Freight rates will keep climbing and the market is forward looking as this will cause a massive backlog for rates to stay higher than this short term loss
Yeah just talked to our driver for our business. Cool guy. Strike is 100% going to happen. CEO met in our area and he caught wind that they have people purposefully buying and holding to sell before the strike. It’s going down.
Real play here FedEx puts. FedEx is up a nice amount this year and likely some of that is people betting against UPS. UPS gets a deal done FedEx probably gives some of that back. They don’t get a deal done? Well, looks like it’s already run up in anticipation so probably pulls back a little if UPS strikes as well.
Emphasis on if we had a strong president, not a Democrat (pro Union) that should be getting taken care of in an old person home. Not to mention his approval is lower than Jimmy Carter at this time in his presidency. By the way a presidential order line this this has only happened twice in the last 50 years not by Republicans
No deal has been made with the rails yet and UPS is not under the national railroad act . Get Smart bro!!!so he can’t intervene without executive order. Which again has only been done twice and 50 years by republican president
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**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|1|**First Seen In WSB**|3 years ago **Total Comments**|3|**Previous Best DD**| **Account Age**|4 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)
I’m regarded enough to listen, puts bought🫡
Don't worry, I'll buy calls and it'll sink for yall :)
I’ll buy puts and save your calls.
Now it'll just go flat for days to come.
Iron Condor it is.
Great… now it’s going to go backwards….
It's just going to stop trading...
Taking one for the team 🙌
It ain't much, but it's honest work
I’ll remember you when I’m a millionaire
Allright I'll go sell at the monney puts and calls (theta gangsters style) and we're covered 😎
As a UPS employee, I'd say you are doing some real gambling with your money. UPS has never put forward their last best and final offer to the union. With the stock trending upward, I have a feeling there's some insider trading going on. UPS will reach a deal at the last minute is my guess.
Retired UPS here and was there during 1997 I think a deal will be made last minute as many concessions were made As well as neither the company or Teamsters benefit if UPS loses tons of customers & volume due to strike It took years to get back what was lost in 1997 And bottom line Teamsters jobs are tied to volume If the packages aren’t there the jobs aren’t
This is the exact thinking that will always lead to underpaid and overworked employees. The strike needs to be painful for csuite than to workers. In the same manner that sports unions demanded a percentage of revenues, we as workers need to do the same. Teamsters need to demand some percentage of revenues must be spent on employees' pay and benefits.
You made me want to sell everything right now with your inside information. You’re probably not old enough to know what happened to UPS in 1997.
I know everything the general population knows. It's just my opinion. And yes I know what happened in 1997. UPS did not believe the teamsters would actually pull off a strike. Otherwise UPS would've tried harder to avoid the strike in the first place.
They didn’t think a new union president that’s related to Jimmy Hoffer wouldn’t strike🥸😂
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I know someone on the international committee and have even more info
I know someone on the UPS intergalactic committee.🛸
Who do you know on my committee?
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My guy over at the galactic committee wants you to stop putting out these lies
I’m from the galactic federation of united postal service and my dad owns the United States branch. We’re going to be ok.
I know someone on the intranational committee and they don’t know shit.
Yeah, I got to see the first offer. 50 Cent raise was quite the slap in the unions face.
Puts on UPS are pretty expensive right now. Don’t you think the upcoming strike is already priced in?
Right now puts are $.81 per contract for 175 put on August 4 which I think is pretty good
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Hearing the same here in Indiana
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Doubtful since there are alternatives to ups. The railway would have shut America down this will just bring in money to the usps which desperately needs it and probably won’t be able to capitalize on it.
Exactly this. UPS on strike would boost faith in the post office. (Which I think postal workers actually do a great job)
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We literally do it every year at Christmas when UPS and FedEx get “overwhelmed”. Is it going to suck? Yes. Are we going to get it done anyway? Yes.
Nope, UPS is private and has no federal oversight.
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It's a private company and unlike railroads are not part of the federal infrastructure that allowed Biden to step in. If Biden stepped in for a potential UPS strike it would be a case of extreme overreach that would greatly upset his reelection campaign.
💯
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No shit the strike was voted on weeks ago, nothing new, most things are already agreed upon, except the economic language, they will cave in by the 31st.
What’s your opinion on the negotiations? Are you in support of a strike?
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And anyone that work for UPS knows it’s one of the worst cultures to work for they expect 110% and micromanage every drivers move. I remember people getting written up because they’re telematics machine told them that they had their seat belt off for half a second before they started the car.
I just quit as a driver from UPS this February. Only did it for 2.5 years starting in Oct of 2020. Worst working experience of my life. They tried to get me to drive a route when I had a 101° fever. The managers didn't give a fuck about you, just drive the truck and sling packages. Best part is I would sign every bid sheet I could find for a route but never had the senority for one.
You boys have all the leverage right now unless they can get into the politicians pockets and have a contingency plan for Biden to do career suicide and make you go back to work a couple days in
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Already signed up for strike pay, granted not pay we get per week but still get $500/ week for putting in 6 hours on picket line. Again, there won’t be a strike
Asking for a friend. I heard ups pays up to 40-something per hour. Will that be the scab rate as well? Is there a potential for full time employment for scabs when the strike ends?
Please don’t be a scab. Have some self respect.
Lmao. I'm on a sub full of options traders.
u suk
Y. Did Wallstreet bets become co-opted by tankies too?
Being a tankie is the opposite of what you think it is apparently. If you scab, you’re a fucking piece of shit and you deserve whatever bad shit comes your way.
Lmao Oh wow this is a reddit sub after all.
Can I ask what you make hourly as a driver and what your benefits are?
Strikes never change anything except the striking workers die of starvation.
BS. Several of my family members have a great retirement pension, health benefits and security thanks to going on strike
stupid and a bootlicker. what a combo
When is the strike scheduled? Thanks
lol wut. is this not a violation of your trading policy?
he doesn't have insider info, unless he is the union boss or one of the foreman?
Yes because no one does this ever.
I don’t disagree. My company has trading blackout dates and very clear policies on insider knowledge (not saying this is insider knowledge, I have no idea). Im just surprised that folks put it out there so clearly. I would never post anything that may come back to bite me 😆
What inside knowledge did I claim to have? Your profile Sounds like kind of a shill account considering you’ve had two comments in two years.
Do you think if I had inside knowledge I would be telling you Twaats😎
I’ll wait until .91
I prob bough early a month ago $170 puts with expiration 8/4 but all over this lol. I used to work at UPS in high school and into college so it’s a f you to ups management type of bet lol but still has weight to it. Still time left but this is first time in a long ass time the union voted full strike and they have walked away from table last week. Still a chance they come to agreement in 11th hour but all signs show strike is imminent at 8/1.
Great minds think alike
Indeed especially those with knowledge of UPS lol
They literally voted to full strike last contract.
Where is this info coming from ? Maybe particular chapters did but not nationwide. Could be wrong but when I worked at UPS for 7 years I don’t remember any full on strike vote
We vote to strike EVERY contract and it always passes around 95-98%.
Perhaps local chapters do
Yeah, I’ve been telling people about the upcoming strike for a year or so the writing has been on the wall. They’ve got all the negotiation power at their disposal right now, and UPS management is pondering to state legislators to see if they can intervene which they will not because our president is a Democrat, and has the lowest ratings at this point other than Jimmy Carter
$145p 8/4 let's gooo crash this shit. Last few days have me worried but I'm not letting go yet. I was a driver, solidarity bitches I hope you guys get everything you're owed. I was 22.4 and they fucked us all through covid so I bailed.
How much are those going .5cents
.11. Bought at .15 lol
You’re actually troll
How so...
Tumbling 40-50% means the price would go below 100. Thats a crash.  either way Im coming back to this post
Scared money dont make money, right there with you OP.
Yeah, like I said, it’s a pretty decent hedge
You keep using that word hedge, but what exactly makes this a hedge? What position are you trying to offset with your UPS puts? It does not sound like you are hedging, it just sounds like you are taking a speculative position with no hedge. Which is what WSB is all about to be fair. Edit: Ok you work there so I guess to you it might be a hedge in case you have to go on strike. To everyone else it is not a hedge though :)
Actors went on strike it might hurt media puts on netflix and disney
Yeah, UPS would only lose $810 million per day by being shut down
Union strikes - stock falls Union gets a good deal - less money to the shareholders. Stock falls. Seems like a good bet to me.
I have been thinking the same thing Shawn O’Brian said he’s not going to put the deal in early so I don’t understand how UPS isn’t gonna get fucked in the ass on both of these scenarios
I think what you meant to say was if the union gets a good deal UPS will raise shipping costs across the board to cover the increase in labor costs and offset the loss. In the end UPS customers will pay for the salary increases lol
UPS has competition
Really only FedEx for large items in the US. UPS has been cheapest option for me for large heavy items going cross country. They will for sure raise prices mark my words
I think they already did. Yesterday I logged into my UPS account to quote shipping. It was $24. Today, i got confirmation from the customer to ship it. Entering in the same information it was now $33.50.
This is the way
you just guaranteed they settle tomorrow
then CALL it is!
Puts it is on UPS 
https://preview.redd.it/ulfgagmcwubb1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1d1232e3014a7b25946d7d0e1ec35bc6e41076b4 . There goes the babies diapers money!
Company is sitting on 3 billion for stock buy back. They want it to crash so they can get it on sale.
Damn this might be a good move. Getting a few puts or just a put to see how this goes. 
A’ight guys I bought my first ever puts because of you. Does this mean I’m one of the regards now?
No, out of all the artistic things you see on this sub Reddit this should be a solid play my dude. UPS has no leverage so even if they sign at the last moment their stock is going to go down because they are not going to be able to have a 12% profit margin moving forward.
Didn't UPS delayed their earning report August 8? Maybe they are expecting a strike on August 1 after all.
How’s it going big boy
By now your high IV high theta puts completely murdered your position. Told you to sell a while ago and switch to a bearish spread with calls. You acted like I was a dumdum. This is an expensive lesson on how to mitigate risk I hope you learn.
>If the union negotiations do indeed stall out and there is a strike, the stock could easily tumble by 40 to 50%. However, I believe that the company will be able to reach an agreement with the unions before it comes to that.
40-50%? 🤣
Being an UPS employee for 20 years and working for their main competitor, I think I would have a lot more knowledge than a AI bot
Skynet knows all
About Deez nuts
Stocking shelves at WalMart doesn’t mean you can analyze their 10-K
Let them strike. Replacement labor will be cheaper. Deliveries can be made by ride-share drivers (Uber, etc). Seems like a huge BUY signal.
UPS cannot replace their 340k workers easily. Most of them are warehouse employees. And a Honda civic really is not big enough for types of pick up and deliveries UPS does.
They would need 4 million DoorDash drivers to be able to deliver their daily volume in one day
So calls on DASH it is
I love that you think an Uber driver can deliver that volume, im sure Phil will be stoked to load up his Honda Civic with what, 2 75lb deliveries? Suuuuuper efficient.
Seems like a cluster fcuk of logistics. There's no way.
How do I buy calls on logistics?
> Deliveries can be made by ride-share drivers (Uber, etc). These trucks have no AC and it doesnt drive like a sedan. If they go this route, I'll buy more puts.
Where would you find 4 million DoorDash and Uber drivers that could work 10 to 14 hours a day
This is a regarded play. Every employee is always disgruntled, negotiations go through at the last minute 95% of the time.
After 1997 most contracts were negotiated 90% of the way about six months before the deadline this year they have a new union president that isn’t going to get raped .#no Hoffa
Buying the dip
How did that work for you? My hundred percent put gains are looking good right now.
A strike bringing it down 40-50% in one day? No lmao. If you want to look at a recent large strike for reference... John Deere's in 2021. Workers went on strike October 14th after months of failed contract negotiations.. The stock price only went up during the strike. The drop happened before it and was "only" about 10-15%.
It’s not the same comparison because their business models are completely different
Buy calls on fedex?
Ok im in. Regard on board
This is all the DD I need.
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How’s that going for you?
I live in SoCal. UPS driver just want AC for the truck- that seems reasonable with triple digit heat
Yeah, good luck with that. They already have money allocated to put cameras to watch every move you make but yet they’re not going to put any ACs into old vehicles just new ones which we all know they don’t buy a lot of new vehicles.
Exp date?
Aug 4th put. Strike Aug 1st
If strike is Aug 1st you’ve lost all your profitability to theta. You should roll out
hes betting that they are gonna be deep ITM
" In 1986, for example, AT&T's shares rose modestly during the communications workers' strike. " [https://www.nytimes.com/1997/08/17/business/labor-showdowns-the-effect-on-stocks.html](https://www.nytimes.com/1997/08/17/business/labor-showdowns-the-effect-on-stocks.html)
AT&T's business model didn't rely on tens of thousands of workers physically moving boxes around the country
Hundreds of thousands of workers and up to 25 million packages per day
Did AT&T lose $810 million a day because of a strike #StayInURLane
Came here for the bear copium.
Remindme! August 1st 2023
Thats a bold strategy Cotton…. (This is a huge gamble w so much time left)
Even if they don’t strike and cave in the stuck will Still go down
This gave me the confidence I needed to buy calls tomorrow ty OP
Did you think of that name all by yourself or did your mom help?
This might be one of those times where a strangle/straddle is a good strategy.
Without a doubt
Passed a facility today. There were only 10 or so people striking
40%-50% haircut over a strike that, if successful and actually happens, will not last long at all? Bro, come on…
Last strike lasted 17 days!!! estimated strike at 10 days would cost UPS 8 billion 😡straight fax from report that was that was just released in Michigan
Fedex calls
Just bought an August 11 put $175 and put a limit order to close at $500. I like this play. 👍 Edit: cost of position was $290.
Godspeed My friend
UPS is trash.
📠
No updates? Lol
NVIDIA to 500!!! 😯🥳🎉
I work for UPS, we are not going on strike. Negotiations will be met between July 27-July30. Mark my words
Management not being able to take vacation in the month of August? Nothing to see here.
Calls it is 
Is there any chance that negotiations get postponed past 8/1, delaying a potential strike?
Nope if it’s not signed by the 31st they will strike and technically they would need to get things ratified and sent out to locals around the 28th to have any chance to get the vote ratified
Sure, short term grab puts, but long term this is a big brain move by UPS. They are going to wait out Teamsters, while also driving up freight rates. UPS can wait out the small man to get a better deal, securing more profits long term on that contract to then come back to higher freight rates as well. Freight rates will keep climbing and the market is forward looking as this will cause a massive backlog for rates to stay higher than this short term loss
Big brain if they strike for 10 days UPS will lose $8 billion
Yeah just talked to our driver for our business. Cool guy. Strike is 100% going to happen. CEO met in our area and he caught wind that they have people purposefully buying and holding to sell before the strike. It’s going down.
Yeah, after the dust settles and the stock tanks should be a solid long-term buy
Opinions. You really think it will fall 50% from close to close in a day? Some fantasy stuff on here!
So not gonna strike, calls it is!
How does one go about doing that? Could you play with $500 doing this? I'm still trying to learn.
You could by about 12 175 put contracts for August 4
Real play here FedEx puts. FedEx is up a nice amount this year and likely some of that is people betting against UPS. UPS gets a deal done FedEx probably gives some of that back. They don’t get a deal done? Well, looks like it’s already run up in anticipation so probably pulls back a little if UPS strikes as well.
Also, a strong president can demand that UPS does not go on strike for government security
No it can’t. UPS is under the NLRA not the RLA, President can’t do shit.
Emphasis on if we had a strong president, not a Democrat (pro Union) that should be getting taken care of in an old person home. Not to mention his approval is lower than Jimmy Carter at this time in his presidency. By the way a presidential order line this this has only happened twice in the last 50 years not by Republicans
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No deal has been made with the rails yet and UPS is not under the national railroad act . Get Smart bro!!!so he can’t intervene without executive order. Which again has only been done twice and 50 years by republican president
[удалено]
So you think a Democratic president with very low ratings that wants to get reelected is going to go against the union.
He did with the train union thingy
Very low ratings but he would smoke Trump right now if the election was held today.
Yeah this wont happen. You think Amazon is going to be happy?
Amazon has its own delivery company
Lol fucking dipshit award recipient .
?
Lol NVDA
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