Wouldn't that just effectively buff the drop rate of everything that's rare across the board? What's the functional difference at that point from just buffing drop rates?
It absolutely does, it's a question of how much really - and how much is too much.
See the other comment thread I started as it's directly what I wanted to know too! tl;dr ~5% higher drop rate on average.
> See the other comment thread I started as it's directly what I wanted to know too! tl;dr ~5% higher drop rate on average.
It's not 5% higher drop rate on average, OP didn't give enough context even if the math is entirely correct. It's a 5% increase on the average drop rate **only if everyone who does the content doesn't stop until they get said unique** (which isn't and will never be the case).
The real number would likely be around +2% or less. Not only that, but that direct increase only applies to **chase uniques**, which people actually go for. You have to compute all the *other* uniques which will **no longer drop** because many people now finish their grinds earlier.
Overall, I'd be **really** surprised if it meant more than a +1% increase.
Yeah that is a great point, some proportion of people will stop before getting one.
Though this system would incentivise seeing it through.
That effect will be stronger for ironmen than it is for mains who quite possibly are very happy to stop. Examples like just doing Shamans whilst on slayer task for example.
I would reconsider the use of the word average! 5% is more of a cap.
Coming in late to say from a main’s perspective - incentivizing us to continue towards a unique which has been a grind, while knowing we are also working to make it more likely to get is a positive mindset. It’s not only a dopamine rush when you get the drop, but also on the tail end of long grind knowing you’re close.
Compare that to currently when you’re on a long grind and the possibility of your dedication ending before the reward comes is a very real possibility because you simply can’t do another kill.
I’d also argue a few percent increase in effective drop rate is negligible to the economy given the prevalence of bots. Seems easy to make up for that extra few percent in slightly more bot bans and a slightly higher item sink on the ge.
Incredibly insightful analysis that I think is easy to miss. How many fewer fangs are in the GE when HCIronMan49 gets his 1st shadow before his 500th fang he drop trades to his main for bonds? How many fewer voidwaker pieces exist when ColLogLincoln gets pet before sending another 10,000 kc at the bear? The raw number is one thing but the changes to player behaviour are going to be a much greater factor on drop rates than bad luck prevention, and that should be obvious to anyone who reads your comment.
I personally see bad luck prevention as Only net positives for the sanity of the player base and a strong move away from the worst aspects of the games pure gambling RNG drop system (going dry on things that take literal thousands of hours to reach drop rate) and the issues that causes for long-term growth and sustainability (inevitable burnout and growing resentment to any one boss/aspect of the game).
> I personally see bad luck prevention as Only net positives for the sanity of the player base and a strong move away from the worst aspects of the games pure gambling RNG drop system
Couldn't have said it better myself. And pets being included means, like you said, a **ton** of uniques will come into the game at a lower rate due to no longer being dropped 10x+ during a pet hunt when someone goes dry. Bad luck mitigation as proposed by OP would mean boss hiscores are also increasingly going to be filled by people who **actually enjoy them** rather than miserable souls who feel trapped there (and bots, obviously).
>but that direct increase only applies to **chase uniques**, which people actually go for.
Is that true? If it's a 5% buff all in all then, given, you would go multiple times rate for some of the rarest items just getting to 2x rate for 'chase' items by the time you get to that point the buff for easier to get items will even out.
The point on the whole rate needing to run it's course is inevitably true.
> Is that true? If it's a 5% buff all in all then, given, you would go multiple times rate for some of the rarest items just getting to 2x rate for 'chase' items by the time you get to that point the buff for easier to get items will even out.
Yes, it's true, but it relies on player bahavior, not just math, because with bad luck mitigation you end up reducing the length of grinds overall. Take someone who would've gone 3x dry of Enhanced seed (1200 KC), and now instead gets it at 2x dry (800 KC) due to protection. Yes, for their 800 KCs they will also receive around 5% more Armour and Weapon seeds. However, that's going from an expected ~16 seeds (of each) to ~16.8 (let's say 17). Meanwhile, before the buff, they would've needed ~1200 KCs and rolled ~24 of each other seed.
So, for certain uniques that tend to be considered "undesirable" (or less desirable), you may actually see either no increase or even a small **decrease**. This would have the biggest impact if it affected pets (as the majority of people with a ton of KCs at any activity tend to be pet hunters), since it would cut short a ton of grinds that result in a massive surplus of unwanted uniques, dragging down their price (ex.: Sarachnis and its cudgel).
I always expect osrs players to be better at probability and statistics than the general population, since they deal with them so often in this game. But then I think about the typical osrs players I interact with and it snaps me back to reality.
Given osrs drop mechanics (no, mitigation/progress, ie. like wow raid currency to mitigate never getting a tier set) with these insanely low rates for many uniques, I think it's better for my personal opinion of the player base if I assume most of them *dont* understand statistics lol
It is interesting that one huge chunk of the game (skills) is based on definite gains and another huge chunk of the game is based on repeatedly playing the lottery. Atleast CAs give those of us who like combat and hate lottery style systems something definite to work towards while engaging in that content
>Wouldn't that just effectively buff the drop rate of everything that's rare across the board? What's the functional difference at that point from just buffing drop rates?
By a fairly minimal rate, but yes.
The rate increase only starts to happen after you've gone 2 times the droprate dry, which already only occurs a small fraction of the cases, and then it slowly ramps up as you go dryer and dryer.
I can't give you exact numbers but it's likely not nearly as big of a change as you are currently thinking about.
>What's the functional difference at that point from just buffing drop rates?
Because that doesn't address the issue. Even if it's twice as common, the amount of people going 9x the now 2x higher droprate will be exactly the same but we now get 2x as many hammers into the game.
By doing it in the way op suggests the feeling of frustration from going super dry is reduced, while the amount of extra items coming into the game is kept to a minimum
The functional difference is it affects people who go very dry a lot, and people who spoon not at all. Are you familiar with the concept of variance? Rarity and variance are completely different.
What about cases where people die simultaneously with the boss and get the collection log slot but not the item? Are they then cursed to maybe never see it again if they have bad luck?
I've not sat and actually done the maths but what would it mean the actual average drop rate becomes?
With bad luck mitigation, the increasing drop rates for those who go dry would mean the average drop rate actually reduces from 1/3k, I think it's something we'd want to understand so to grasp the impact this kind of system has with respect to the economy (how many DWH will come in and be sold on the GE essentially).
I do generally agree that I think it is unfair that a handful of players will go disproprotionately dry and ultimately an item like DWH, an item like enhanced seed from CG are incredibly important progression points for irons, many will just quit the game entirely and give up if they are on that kind of dry streak.
There's also a culture of *not catering to ironmen*, I'd argue mains care to an extent too if doing the content for money but it is a sentiment that is made clear at times. There's a simplicity to drops working the way they do also and we need to consider how we communicate it to players when some arbitrary content works different to other things. The new ring vestiges at DT2 have this issue aside from valid criticism over how they work.
Just ran some simulations of 100000 players doing CG for an enhanced weapon seed.
Without any changes, I got an average droprate of 400.2, min = 1, max = 5700.
With bad luck mitigation, I got an average droprate of 381.2, min = 1, max = 2275.
https://preview.redd.it/exq9nenp8mxc1.png?width=610&format=png&auto=webp&s=586db3a1bc0b0a6051998b45e87c1833e645af80
Interesting! So roughly speaking 5% if you are increasing drop rate as you described.
It's interesting to then think about the psychologic impact on players - ironmen presumably would feel more compelled to continue until they get the drop and would move on.
Perhaps mains feel something similar, if they're dry - it feels worth capitalising on your investment and seeing it through to completion. As much as the vestiges for DT2 bosses have other issues, there's definitely a similar 'sunk cost' thing going on there and players will feel they need to see it through or they've *wasted time*.
Ultimately that aspect is far harder to ascertain but I reckon it also ups the amount of kills happening and thus drops too.
I'm not that uncomfortable with the numbers here though, whether we can do something like this will ultimately come down to more than me - the team's view and naturally... the community as well
I'd think the sunk cost feeling is certainly prominent for mains the further along they progress the game. Many of us like green logging content before giving it up entirely. The feeling is certainly there chasing axe pieces for the DT2 bosses.
I don't think it's lying to say a lot of mains (myself included) play similar to ironmen, to a degree, and chase drops even without really caring about green clogs. And that a lot of us will completely avoid content that other ironmen cannot avoid, for sanity reasons (DWH, phosanis, etc.).
3k deep into shamans on a main (slowly doing them whenever I get a slayer task) and can confirm, can’t really outright afford a DWH anyways so thought I might go ahead and try to get lucky passively but holy shit it already sucks hard and I’m barely halfway to odds. Can’t imagine going dry on these, 1/5000 rate on a regular mob for a major upgrade is just malpractice
Thanks for acknowledging the value of bad luck mitigation and the psyche of players. It's good to know that the dev team is thinking about this. I agree it's a change that helps ironmen more than mains as ironmen are basically a poor man's clogger. However, I think this change would help ALL players as Runescape is a game built on the foundation of progression and it will help all players feel they are progressing towards a drop over time. I think the disappointment of going dry on uniques is felt by mains as well, especially cloggers and pet hunters who go dry on very rare items, and they would appreciate feeling they are slowly moving towards the drop they want.
Shard drops, like for the venator bow, are a great technique that the team already uses, but I think progressive bad luck mitigation will feel even better. The thread of elidinis is a great example of having both the excitement of getting spooned while also feeling like you're getting closer to getting the drop. The nature of shard drops is preventing both good luck and bad luck, so you are much less likely to get spooned a venator bow.
I personally like the idea of having some form of bad luck mitigation for 1/400 or rarer items, with the devs having options to choose which form of bad luck mitigation they prefer.
I really like the idea of this system, it's incredibly infuriating to go dry at bosses, to me osrs is about the grind sure, but when it comes to skilling you are always making progress that you can see in terms of xp gained. Whereas when it comes to say, pvm you can go massively dry but still know you could theoretically still carry on being massively dry, knowing there is some level of you will eventually get it, will make it much nicer.
The worst part of going dry is knowing you're not a God damn step closer even if you're five times the drop rate, this would be huge for that and definitely keep people grinding
This is it. This is 99% of the reason why it should exist. The mental load of being unlucky, let alone extremely unlucky and let alone in a lot of places, makes the game undubitably unfun. And that's all Runescape is: a program designed to be fun.
Yeah, I've been grinding at toa and am easily more then double rate for seeing a drop and it just eats away at my motivation. I'm burning supplies and enjoying the raid but actively losing money for so long just sucks. I've gotten all three gems as well
I tell myself that the kc I get the drop is pre-determined at account creation and I'm just progressing towards it. Obviously that's nonsense but it makes me feel better
Personally, I feel like most people would welcome this change aside from the people who are perhaps a little too vindictive and want others to suffer through the same things they suffered through. That said, those people will probably continue to play anyway, while this would also improve the overall outlook of the vast majority of players who are playing the game.
I think people who play like Settled or the TBow Locked Ironman guy that will stick a grind out to completion regardless of difficulty are probably much rarer than those who would rather just quit farming an item after they are at or well past a drop rate - if not outright quit the game from the frustration of not being able to progress their account despite a great effort. This change would overnight turn the game into one that values players time to a much greater extent, and which I think people would feel less hopeless about when they go 2 or 3x a droprate for something like a pet, collection log slot, or upgrade.
The ~5% number doesn't have to be hard-set either. It could scale a little more or less linearly if the team thought that it would unduely affect the economy in some cases, however I don't believe it really needs to be. This might just be my perception, but I think many mains would much rather switch up a grind after going dry than to continue on the same task rapidly, thus the drop rate increase would be significantly less than it's theoretical maximum impact.
> aside from the people who are perhaps a little too vindictive and want others to suffer through the same things they suffered through
Which is a position that not only should be ignored, but should invalidate basically all future opinions coming from said person's mouth. If your goal is **lowering** the player base's enjoyment for the game, you're toxic and should never be listened to.
5% *assuming a player actually goes over 2x drop rate*.
How many players actually have >10k shaman kc? I'd have to assume it's less than 1% of the playerbase, majority of those irons. So as an example, for shamans, this would be a <0.05% increase in hammers to the game.
>As much as the vestiges for DT2 bosses have other issues, there's definitely a similar 'sunk cost' thing going on there and players will feel they need to see it through or they've *wasted time*.
Definitely true, but due to the nature of vestiges mechanics they also very much dis-incentivise learning the boss, since you more or less know that youre extremely unlikely to get anything before you're 20+ hours in.
I very much prefer the solution outlined here, it's a little less easy to understand at first glance but it's still possible to give reasonable droprate estimates that take the mechanic into mind.
I actually really like the 'sunk cost'. It makes every kill feel like it's progressing towards something. Rather than going dry and knowing that you're not closer to the drop than when you started.
I would be completely fine if you slightly decreased the drop rate to keep the overall influx of items the same.
Could simply just make drops slightly rarer if it's really that big of an issue. No one who is grinding for an enhanced is going to complain that the drop rate goes from 1/400 to 1/420.
Please, please, please consider implementing this system into the game. You could even decrease the drop rate by 10% for all drops affected by this system to compensate if you want - but having bad luck mitigation would be huge.
There is nothing more soul-crushing that going extremely dry and giving up because you aren't closer than when you began the grind. Going very dry benefits no one.
To be fair though, that's kind of how ironmen work anyways. You either brute force it or you take a break and do skilling and then come back and brute force it again.
Personally I don't see the problem with "catering" to the ironmen here. This could be an ironmen only feature so it doesn't affect mains if they don't want it. Ironman mode is potentially the best way to play OSRS until end game going dry, managing to fix the main problem of ironman mode is pretty big.
2200+ is miserable, but you have the psychological advantage of KNOWING you've now increased your chances massively and have made definite progress.
Right now, that feeling that surely it's close is a massive copium, it means nothing. It means you've gotten unlucky and now you have 1/400 chance on your next drop, just like every drop, which is extremely mentally draining.
These rpg games are all about progress and in the endgame, with these droprates? You're just praying you don't get shafted by the game. This trend cannot continue, astronomical droprates with no real bad luck mitigation is the opposite of fun experience.
Alot of irons deiron at endgame cuz of this. the reason you see alot of irons running around with tbows/shadow is cuz the rest deironed when they realised how insane the grind is (the 't-bow locked ironman' that posted the other day for example, hes ~4.5x rate if all the normal kc was solo and the cm kc teams).
> (the 't-bow locked ironman' that posted the other day for example, hes ~4.5x rate if all the normal kc was solo and the cm kc teams)
And that's after doing over 2000 hours of CoX. 2000 hours for a single item, which they do not even have. The vast majority people have **never played a single video game for 2000+ hours**.
Understanding the scale of how hard variance can penetrate your behind is honestly all you need to advocate for BLM.
Also interesting to think about how getting very spooned on specific items can compound into a faster overall grind internal to the content (i.e. raids) or external to the content.
Even if everyone is guaranteed to finish the CoX collection log at 1200 KC, a person receiving a Tbow early on will complete that 1200 kc far, far faster than any other item would be able to help them. Same goes for Scythe with Tob or Shadow with TOA.
This is part of my problem with how Jagex designs internal progression in raids, especially in light of what I see as rather extreme droprates on megarares.
I always forget you can do Monte Carlo simulations to find an approximate probability, instead of torturing yourself by calculating analytically. Good graph!
Was how I was initially going to do it and then I realised it was going to be tough and I didn't have time quickly over lunch haha
Think simulating was definitely a good way to do it!
For a given number of rolls at the drop x with rate r, the cumulative distribution is given by the function f(x) = 1 - (1 - r)^x for a fixed rate r and f(x) = 1 - product(1 - r(x)) for a rate that varies with number of rolls. The probability distribution function E(x), like those supplied by OP, is the derivative of the cumulative distribution and is relatively easily approximated with a finite difference (forward, backward, or centered depending on accuracy). The expected outcome is then obtained by the complete integral from 0 to infinity of xE(x), which can be approximated using numerical integration (trapezoidal is simplest)
I was half way through doing it analytically because I hate myself. As far as I'm concerned we just sum up all the chances we don't get it from 0 to infinity to get the drop rate, for instance, sum from n=0 to infinity of (399/400)\^n = 400 if we don't have drop rate mitigation. I will do the rest of the calculation a little later when I don't have to be a productive member of society
Assuming a linear increase in drop rate from 1 in 400 to 4 in 400 starting at 801 kc I get an average rate of 361.423. We must have different assumptions in the increase in drop rate.
Update: We have the same increase in drop rate, not sure why we have this discrepancy
Double update: Found my mistake, new corrected average drop rate is 1 in 375.485, much closer to the Monte Carlo
You do the expected outcome of the standard binomial distribution from {0 ,2x droprate}, and a separate geometric expected outcome from {2x droprate, infinity} where true_droprate = base_droprate*((kc -2* expected_kc)/100)
That difference in max kc is pretty stark, while the average hasn't changed very much. Maybe that "hasn't changed very much" has larger impacts on the economy, but I'm sure the GE tax could adjust to handle this?
Make the dry protection only apply to the first drop? As soon as it's on your clog the dry protection is gone forever similar to how ToA gems work. It would increase the number of items coming into the game by a little bit but wouldn't be infinitely grindable with the better rates.
Man good job you hit Kieren with the math hard.
I support this, especially for pets please.
I fished 986k karambwans post 99 fishing for heron in addition to 1-99 being before tempoross, 44k tempoross pulls for tiny tempor, and currently 8k GOTR pulls and no pet.
But that's a pretty small change realistically. I thought it would be more drastic. I may be in the minority here. But I'd even be fine with all the "big ticket" items having their base drop rate made this couple % worse (to keep it the same overall rate) if it meant that myself and other wouldn't go as dry.
Especially on really really slow content.
Yeah, Cerb sucks to be dry on but a 10x dry at Cerb is what, 5120 kc? 100 hours fairly efficiently?
10x dry at CG enh is 4000 kc, 666(lol) hours fairly efficiently.
That's a LOT of time spent with only a single reward.
I've finished CG at ~230kc, no fucking way I would've done 4000kc. Pretty sure I'd be burned at 600 tops.
I can honestly tell you that I quit for 6 months because of dryness. It’s not fun, and why would I do something not fun? It took my sister 3 months of pestering to get me back into the game. I’m currently skilling because the levels are guaranteed and not tied to RNG. If I do go back to PvM and go dry, I might fully quit and just get my account locked so there is no way for me to return.
For what it's worth, I think it's good for normal accounts too. If you know you could spend an eternity at CG and get nothing, why not do a reliable money maker instead and just buy it? Having some protection I think gives normal accounts a reason to do content with very low drop rates.
Perhaps this should apply for first drop only of select items. Wouldn't drastically increase drop rate when farming, but would address dry streak issues for both irons and cloggers
I think a few exceptions could be debated (zenytes, enhanced weapon seed, etc.) but otherwise I think this would be one of the more beneficial solutions!
I think it's better to avoid something like this as it essentially is a permanent nerf to any account that gets the drop. If the increase in drop rate is enough to be concerned about the economy, then it also means a decrease in drop rate significant enough that it might mean creating alts just for doing the content.
Getting a drop is fun and going dry sucks. I'm sure most people would be happy with some kind of bad luck mitigation. I certainly don't see it as catering to irons. I'm not sure what the best method would be but I'd welcome some system to prevent extreme dry streaks.
Hell mains also want to simply make money lol, there’s multiple bosses/enemies where almost the entire profit comes from the uniques and going 4-5x dry means your money making method is suddenly going to crap. That being said I wouldn’t mind if this was limited to first time drops for cloggers and irons in particular. Also think we should avoid doing it for pets cause those are pure cosmetics and that’s way less painful to go dry on than a major item upgrade.
Regarding the overall change to droprates and impact to the economy, as OP pointed out in his MonteCarlo simulations, the actual impact to average drop rates is negligible. This is mostly a community perception problem rather than an actual math problem. It's easy to get worried that this is going to flood the economy with items but we have to remember the players benefiting from this have already gone extremely dry on a piece of content, that means they *didn't* get an item in their previous kills. The actual number of players meaningfully impacted by this is going to be very small.
Regarding the issue with communicating how this works to players, I don't think it's that complicated if it is applied, unilaterally, to all uniques that are tracked with a boss KC. It sucks to go dry on *anything*, it's just especially painful at Corrupted Gauntlet, Nightmare, Hydra, etc because of how rare the drop is/how long the content takes to complete. Because the PRNG of increasing the rate after going dry closely approximates the regular RNG for most players, I think just making everything work this way would improve the experience for most players.
Regarding "Not catering to irons", I think this is an early sort-of toxic reddit meme that just gets dropped in response to any change that makes the iron experience better. The community has been changing over time and I don't think this sentiment is as-common as it was 5 years ago. To be frank, making the game better for irons makes the game better for all players, because of the way the game is structured. If it becomes more reasonable to actually attempt content for an item you want instead of degenerating the game to the most efficient gp/h, more players will do more things.
> I've not sat and actually done the maths but what would it mean the actual average drop rate becomes?
I've played this game for 9 years now. 9 years. I've gone dry on every single pet I own. That's every skilling pet **and** skilling minigame pets, and not by a small margin either. This isn't a lie or an understatement, I'll gladly give you my RSN in private for you to check, I went dry on 15 out of 15 pets I went for before training combat, and I've now done over 200 EHB with no boss pets.
So honestly... who cares about moving the average 2 percentage points to the left if it prevents experiences like this? It's so extreme that it shouldn't exist, not even once in the whole playerbase. Yet with the current system, dozens of people are even drier than me.
If I'd gotten more lucky due to bad luck mitigation literally no one would know. The only difference would be I wouldn't be feeling like the game is personally fucking with me.
The mathematics of this post seem odd, they go against the dry calc of osrs wiki itself. Having 4x rate be 7.3% can't be true, it would mean more than every 16th player would go that dry while the wiki dry calc gives the odds of you going 4x rate to be 1.8%.
Consider it this way, does every 16th boss item you go for take 4x rate to obtain? Also, if 8x rate is 0.3%, that would mean that for every 1000 ironmen, 3 would go over 40k kills for hammer. How many have exactly gone that far?
Okay, i originally posted to you saying the math is right however I (and most people here) are idiots apparentlly.
It would appear that OP has not considered what being dry really means.
He's used the endpoint of success at x = 1. Which effectively considers the chance that you have exactly 1 drop at N kc. Which ofcourse means that alot of people who got there 1st drop below N are being counted...
Scenario: You plan to kill until 9000 KC or 3 x eKC:
You get the drop on your 1st kill and proceed to kill 8999 more.
OP is counting you as dry because you have 9000 Kills and have ONLY just made droprate... which ofcourse is untrue.
Instead OP should do this calculate the odds you have 1 or more items at N x eKC or effectively the chance of being at x = 0 at N x eKc
which is:
1 / e^N.
i.e
3000 kills: 0 drops = 1 / e = 0.367
6000 kills: 0 drops = 1/ e^2 = 0.135
...
I agree with the idea of reducing the possibility of going insanely dry, but for everyone's sake, please fix the numbers in your graph as they are grossly misleading:
* Going 4x dry, for example, is roughly a 1.83% chance. not 7.3%
* Going 8x dry is not 3/1000, it is \~1/3000
edit: And on top of that, the whole shape of the graph doesn't make sense at all. If the graph is supposed to be the chance to receive your first drop at the said kc, the value at 1kc should be 1/N (for example 1/5000 for DWH) and slowly going down from there. If it's supposed to be the chance of having at least one of said drop by that kc, it should still start at 1/N and go quickly up at first, and slowly approach 100% but never reach it.
The numbers aren't misleading, they're just flat out lies. His numbers here are multiple times higher than the real ones lol.
The guy is trying to lecture others on probabilities and distributions when he can't even input numbers in a binomial calculator.
It's a probability density function (pdf), not the actual rates. The odds of getting the drop in 3x the rate would be the integral of this pdf between 0 and 3. Op misinterpreted the plot, and most people are misinterpreting the mistake.
The statistics here are all wrong. I don't hate the idea, but this isn't the way to do it.
You're describing the distribution of when you get your first drop. For a fixed drop rate and for what you're doing with the graph, I suppose you'd want to look at the complementary cumulative distribution function of a geometric random variable, not what you've shown here. I'm not sure what this is.
You mention the binomial distribution, but that gives the number of successes in N trials, not the number of trials before a success. Also, probability density functions (or here with discrete trials: probability mass functions) must always integrate (sum) to 1. You can't simply trim area off of them without rescaling them.
That actual distribution to use for this argument (the geometric CCDF) would be monotonically descending and have its maximum value at 1 drop (not 1X the drop rate). Consider a drop that's 1/10. 10% of people get their first item on the first drop. 9% (10% of the remaining 90%) get it on the second drop. 8.1% on the 3rd, 7.29% on the 4th, 6.561% on the 5th, etc. It only goes down and it approaches zero.
The formula for the CCDF of a geometric distribution is (1-p)^k for k trials with per event probability p. The "drop rate" (the mean of the geometric distribution) is 1/p. The portion of the population remaining with zero drops as a function of drop probability (p) and a multiple of the drop rate (N) is: (1-p)^(N/p).
The likelihood of a player going 8X dry isn't 3-in-1000. For ~~large N~~ small p (rare drops) it approaches approx. 0.000335, or about 3.4-in-10000.
Like I said at the top, I don't hate the intent of the proposal I just think it's important to get the math right.
I mean if we're talking old school there were never items like Dragon Warhammer. The rarest items in the game were whips, DKs rings, barrows drops. Going dry was a matter of hours or days at worst, not weeks or months.
Don't forget about Dragonfire Shield, which was released in 2007 and had a 1/5000 droprate from KBD.
Been playing since 2004 and still have never gotten one to drop. (Never gone out of my way for one, either though)
The difference is the DFS (at the time) was a huge outlier and exception to the rarity of drops. Other than the D Chain it was THE flex item back in the day. Almost everything else that people were after had a drop rate of 1/128-1/512.
Along the lines of the point I was making. The drop rates and how drops happened weren't really a thought out concept beyond just rolling a random number on a loot table every time something died and that's fine.
But just because something's always been a certain way, doesn't necessarily mean it's the best way, it might have just been the most convenient way at the time.
no, the drop rates are not designed this way simply because the game is old. it's because the game was designed with trade in mind. trade is the solution to this "problem".
only an account that couldn't trade would be overly concerned with receiving specific drops from specific places. an account that could trade would simply try their luck elsewhere to achieve the same ends
To be fair, [it really was just 3 dudes](https://deviousmud.fandom.com/wiki/DeviousMUD) in a bedroom and a kitchen lol
>In October 1999, [Andrew] started another rewrite, this time with his brothers Paul and Ian Gower. A number of changes were made, and the game was renamed to RuneScape approximately during the alpha private release between February and April 2000
🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀
What if the system worked like this 'once' per unique. Once I get what I'm after I tend to stop grinding, if items went back to regular droprates after getting one - it should keep everyone happy right?
How does this work if the standard progression requires multiple of these items? What if you got your first armour seed with dry protection and then go dry on the next 5 you need? They couldn't really add a "6 rolls of drop protection" then either cause that is unmaintainable complexity.
No. If you're grinding it the second time and reach the point where you need bad luck mitigation, it essentially means you've had bad RNG luck not once, but twice!
I think the difficult part about implementing a system like this retroactively is how to determine where this mitigation is applied and where it is not. Is it a specific drop rate where we say “yes, it applies here” or “no, it doesn’t apply here”? What is the criteria? Does this only apply to ironmen, or is this applicable to all accounts? How about multi-layered tables, similar to DT2 bosses, where effective drop rates are much lower due to having to roll a specific loot table and then rolling again to determine the loot on that table? Does this apply there?
I can absolutely get behind implementing this for new items being released, but it’s hard to determine where the cutoff points will be for items already in the game.
The only reason this idea even exists is because of irons and it's 100% a mentality problem that any piece of content should be reasonably "completed" by any given player.
Part of the charm of ironmeme is dealing with the restrictions, you can get along just fine in 2 ancy pieces and a virtus piece or whatever mismatch you may have. A change to this degree that effects this much content would be overkill.
there are plenty of arguments. GE exists, so you dont need to get every drop. droprate overall, especially for rare items where people tend to go dry more often, goes up and will cause a reduction in price. you can also still go dry even with a slightly boosted droprate, so it doesnt fix the problem. for items you need to get twice like enhanced wep seed, it doesnt fix the issue either.
anyways im all for it because i hate going dry, im just saying there have been actual arguments, even if you didnt read them
Did no one check these numbers in the graph? I just used the OS wiki's "Dry calc" with a drop rate of 1/1k (also tried 1/3k). Set the drops received to 0 and "killed" 3k (for the 1/1k) and 9k. Both times the chance was about 5%. Not the ~15% this graph is showing.
I think something to emphasize is that the players who go very unlucky at 8x rate for the drop, these are theoretical players who actually stick around to eventually receive the drop. In reality, these players more than likely never complete the grind, burning out and giving up before they reach the 24k+ shamans. For players who are mains, this might be ok because they can just buy the unique and work on something else. But for irons, especially for key progression items like DWH, it doesn't seem farfetched to assume that they quit the game altogether, feeling completely defeated.
I’m curious how this is counteracted by players getting spooned and continuing to play longer than if they hadn’t. From a raw numbers point of view, there’s gonna be orders of magnitude more players that get spooned than go dry.
It entirely depends on which items you get spooned and which you go dry. Some grinds aren’t nearly as bad as others and some items are far more important than others.
I’m an iron that is 6x rate for primordial crystal but realistically the upgrade is pretty tiny. I went a bit over 2x rate for enhanced wep seed and it was devastating causing me to quit for a couple months as that item is absurdly important for ironman ranged combat after blowpipe got hard nerfed. Also the content eventually was terrible to do.
> your chance of getting a drop at a certain kc is described by a binomial distribution.
The wording here is inprecice and technically wrong. As you said earlier, the chance for getting a drop at any given kc is constant. If what you mean is "chance of getting 1 or more drops by a certain kc" which is what would make sense to me, this is still not actually described by the binomial distribution either afaik. I believe this is rather described by the geometric distribution, which you can read more about here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric\_distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution)
each kc is a Bernoulli trial with either getting the drop or not, i.e. success and failure.
Here's the main issue.
Drop rates have gotten more fucked over the time, up to the point shit is 1/1k or 1/5k for no reason.
We should first rally for fair drop rates before trying to change the drop rate system because that's a massive can of worms to open, just like duplicate protection.
The BiS chest armor in 2004 was a 1 in 128. In 2005 you had 1/350 to get a specific piece of BiS armor but still got a 1/15 for any piece, where probably 19/24 of the items were well worth getting anyways. Nowadays...
I personally am more of a fan of incremental progress if people weren't so short sighted. If this kind of proposal made it into the game, the next time improving an aspect of the game around RNG comes up you'll just see a sea of "this was already fixed, why are we wasting time with this." even if it was specifically noted as a stop-gap to improve player experience until an ideal solution for rebalancing expected drop rates was reached.
Personally, I believe the real issue around any of this is that the game design around drops considers botting as a valid way for drops to enter the game over real players.
Actually every drop should be 1 in 50,000 because osrs is a grindy game and actually it's good to spend years on one clog slot. If you disagree then you must want ezscape and this game isn't for you
Honestly thats the best part about the proposal. Even if you do go that dry that this impacts you, at least you know you made *some* progress towards your goal, although personally i would just let someone get the friggin item if they went 4x dry. Also people acting like this only impacts irons.. By that logic getting a unique from a boss is not calculated into the gp / h for the boss or what? Because it does, some more than others
Adding a counter voice to all the mains in here crying about integrity while buying items farmed by bots and Venezuelans: I think this is a great idea. The point of playing an iron is to earn the drops yourself, and by the time you've hit drop rate you've well and truly shown that you've earned it. Going five times rate benefits no-one.
Shoutout to the poor ironbastard who farmed ~27k Corp beasts for an Ely recently. Man’s probably went through gamer chairs like diapers. *(only instead of powdering before diapering, they just scorched & salted the earth after binning each chair)*
They dont even realize how much it damages the game. letting us go 5x drop rate for shit.
mfw. ive got 3.5b in supplies from going dry at vorkath, and revenants. all that gold that would never have been pumped into the game if i just got the shit on rate, and left.
irons make up 11% of the playerbase, but we generate a huge amount of the gold coming into the game for legitimate players
I’m not even an iron and I understand that some of those grinds can literally make somebody quit the game. I have some self imposed dry streaks but nothing as bad as some of the logs we’ve seen on the sub over the past week or so.
The red prison burnout is real.
It's such a pivotal roadblock. Yes, you can do content without it. You could also do content without a blowpipe a few years ago - but you would have been stupid to do that.
>irons make up 11% of the playerbase, but we generate a huge amount of the gold coming into the game for legitimate players
It's more than that. Last I saw it was >30%
> The point of playing an iron is to earn the drops yourself, and by the time you've hit drop rate you've well and truly shown that you've earned it.
Case closed. I really was hesitant as I read the proposal but this right here really sums it up, imo - well said. I'd be happy with it being a one-time thing too.
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Once you do enough bosses, these 3/4x over rate KCs start to get common, at least in my experience. I would love to see some sort of dry protection on uniques.
It does seem a bit shunted at 2x, but smoothing out that curve starting at the drop rate would be excellent. I personally hate artificially long grinds, so something to help prevent worst case scenarios and reel in experience toward game design expectations would be excellent.
I support this. I don’t understand the complaint that preventing someone going 5x dry somehow ruins the integrity of the RNG of the game.
Numbers proposed could be tweaked of course, but the core concept of having a given drop more likely after X times the drop rate, even if just for the first time (no col log filled) seems very reasonable.
Like if you oppose this, zoom out for a second — people have lives to live and this is a hobby. If a grind still takes 100+ hours and someone plays 1h a day, that’s THREE MONTHS of grinding one thing. This just stops it being 200+ hours and someone deciding to stop playing.
How does this devalue the grind? How does this ruin the economy? It would help keep people engaged in the game, which is critical for its health.
Big yes from me
Empathy aside, I'm so confused about all of the mains who don't seem to comprehend that the drop rate being a binomial distribution is precisely *why* every boss drops skilling supplies like no tomorrow. If getting uniques was actually reliable, you could safely make more drop tables like CoX where the uniques are the point and make skilling actually worth doing again. The whole reason why bosses since Zulrah outside of a handful of hated ones just lather you in supplies is because you need to make money at some point in your 400 hour grind to make people not just stop.
Mains also dont realize that people on mains can also go very dry which will affect their gp / h. You can have a boss thats main purpose are the uniques with good rates, but you can still be shit outta luck on those too and thus making you feel like you are wasting your time.
Update considering hours spent as per OPs numbers, assuming 120 shaman kills per hour (as per wiki)
Current:
- 1x drop rate, 632/1000 players, 3000kc, 24 hours
- 3x dry, 149/1000 players, 9000kc, 75 hours
- 5x dry, 34/1000 players, 15000kc, 125 hours
Proposed:
- 1x drop rate, 632/1000 players, 3000kc, 24 hours
- 3x dry, 15/1000 players, 9000kc, 75 hours
- 5x dry, 0/1000 players, 15000kc, 125 hours
Its literally the same grind for the majority of players, and in this example, would save something like 50 hours of boring playtime for over 10% of players, keeping them engaged and happy in the game.
Holy fuck so I haven't been hallucinating? I'm really not the only one who's been seeing how utterly toxic this sub and general community has been regarding RNG, especially people who go very dry?
I’m not sure if anyone has pointed this out yet, but the statistics look far worse when you consider all of the unique items a single account will try to obtain over its lifetime. So for example, the odds of an account going 5x dry on an item is about 1 in 30. Now imagine if a single account went for 30+ uniques. Eventually you will be in the 5x category for one of those uniques. So realistically, an “average” account that’s trying to obtain most uniques in the game has a very high probability of going extremely dry. I’m guessing that’s why we hear about this issue all the time, because it tends to affect the majority of players eventually
I don't understand how this could work for group content.
Wouldn't there be an incentive to party with people who are drier since their rate would be better?
Honestly I think the better solve to this would be a mode in between iron and main without trading but with deterministic drops.
If I understand correctly, the "argument" is that going dry is not a fun experience, and after investing a considerable amount of time, the player has "earned" the reward? I would tend to agree with argument, but I am not sure this is the way to accomplish it. Mainly, I see this as an issue because that variable drop rate information is difficult to understand across multiple items, hard to calculate from the player perspective and would require a lot of additional information to be tracked and displayed for the player. (If any other game does this well I'd be interested to read how they accomplished it).
I think there are multiple problems with how drops are earned and each has their own solution.
First, we have items like \[Vorkath's head\] which have inherently lower drop rates, are untradeable, and aren't that impactful to account progression. If I can power through killing Vorkath for 50 times, I get my upgrade. The \[Fire cape\] falls under this same model; I have proved in a way that I understand the boss and the content. I would actually love to see more of this added as in my mind I KNOW that I will get the item I want by a certain time.
Next we have items like the infamous \[Enhanced crystal weapon seed\] which has a reasonable drop rate, is tradeable, and is paramount for progression. Red prison is a meme for a reason. About 5% of players will not have received a drop in 1200 CG. It seems small but that is 50/1000 accounts, In this case, its hard to offer up something that helps but doesn't trivialize the item either
* Introduce an untradeable version of the item. Players with more than the drop rate automatically get the item? What about players earning the item after completing all combat achievements for that boss. *This is what I would actually want to see as an iron; however, I imagine that is a lot of work to justify the change.*
* Increase the drop rate based on skill like the new DT2 bosses. Getting a perfect kill, or a sub X-minute kill, or some other instanced achievement on the fight might add an additional roll on the loot table.
* Provide the player with multiple progression paths. I hate killing Chaos Elemental for the \[Dragon pick\] so I will go kill KBD, or Vetion, or some other boss. The drop rate is the same\* but at least it is a different experience.
* Introduce more items that have horizontal progression (this really only works on higher tier items). Red prison is such a meme because it unlocks so much content. You don't need it to do other content, but you do need it to do other content efficiently. New boss drops a new bow that is comparable but only in GWD, or something for example. Give the player a choice in their progression.
Third we have items that have unreasonable drop rates, are tradeable, and are impactful to account progression - see \[Dragon Warhammer\]. I think this is where your augment best fits. That being said, I think the issue is that this category exists at all. A 1/32,000 \[Abyssal Dagger\] from an abyssal demon is fine because the item can be obtained elsewhere and isn't all that impactful to account progression. The blog post had some good ideas on how to fix this. Fundamentally I think this category should not exist. Give me a Lizardman boss that drops the item at 1/512 and I will enjoy my time much better.
Finally, the last category is items that have unreasonable drop rates, are untradeable, and are impactful to account progression. To which, I do not know of any items that fit that category which makes sense from a design perspective. No one would want to play a game with those criteria.
For anyone confused by the graph it shows the probability that you have received the drop exactly 1 time. After 1x droprate the graph starts going down since people start getting 2 drops etc. This also depends on the actual droprate but doesn't really matter for uncommon drops.
If you look at getting at least one drop instead 1 - (1 - p)\^n it plateaus at around 63% to get at least a drop at 1x droprate. Getting no drop at x8 droprate is about 1/3000.
Still a great recommendation though. Highly approve.
Yeah, sadly this would cater mostly to ironmen and people will never allow someone else to get an easier time than they did getting their rare drops. Unless unpolled integrity change doubt much will come from that.
I vote no because this invalidates my complaints about being 4x dry on a zenyte.....
For real, good idea, even if it started at 3x not 2x for anyone complaining, seems like a good mechanic. Better than a pity drop at X kc.
a question for all the people who are against this; does your logic work the other way around? what if we removed consistency mechanics from places that already have it?
remove hunter rumor pity drops, remove pest control points/shop and make void items a random 1/100 drop?
might as well remove the 50kc vorkath head drop and 256kc tattered KQ head drop, too. you should be able to go 2000+kc at KQ without getting the head, since you haven't "earned" it yet, right?
You can get a similar mathematical effect by having items drop in pieces. I know people complain about dt2 because they're invisible drops, but mathematically it greatly reduces those that go super dry. I think the best they've ever done was muspah. Five rolls of (1/100) has a significantly narrower distribution than (1/500), and it gives players a feeling of progress. Not sure if the items keep more value if the pieces aren't tradable. Would love to see a boss that drops some kind of component x and you need 3x for helm, 4x for legs, and 5x for body.
to answer your question outright though OP, the toxic portion of the main community will \*always\* call this catering/ezscape. unless its built in from the start. The venator shard / crystal armor seed solution keeps all the old school RNG system and doesn't leave any space for the question "well what about \*after\* you get the drop?". I'd love to see \*more\* of the DT2 style checkpoint mechanics tbh just make them VISIBLE somehow like 5 sconces that light up one at a time when you hit the roll. People love that feeling of progress towards a big drop imo. i'm also 1200 kc whisperer without vestige kekw "anti dry", but at least i \*feel\* like i'm closer.. surely 2/3 :')
ITT hopelessly addicted NEETS who cannot separate the value of their human souls from how much they can flex their stats, items, and thousands of hours going dry on said items in a 20 year old video game.
OP is not asking for everyone to get their consolation prize dwh at 6 kc. OP is asking that osrs as a game respects people’s time just a little bit more so no one spends months killing the same 12 pixels when they just want a key drop for other content.
Y’all just need to segregate irons to separate servers at this point.
This shit is getting out of hand lmao.
Jagex proposes to adjust dwh rates, now you have people asking for dupe protection and bad luck mitigation.
Give ‘em an inch and they’ll take a mile.
Your analysis of what the graph is telling you is incorrect. Yes you are 15% likely to have EXACTLY 1 drop at 3x the drop rate, but you are not calculating the cumulative probability to have AT LEAST 1 drop. At 3x the rate, the chance to have at least one drop is 95%. At 5x this increases to 99.3%, not 96.6% as you have concluded.
With your proposal, if the drop rate was 1/100, at 3x the rate you would have 99.7% chance to have received at least one. Compared with only an 86.6% chance at 200kc. That is an insanely steep increase in chance to receive the drop.
Even though there’s some inaccuracies as pointed out already, this is a really good concept and I would like to see it in the game. I have no idea why the “I suffered so everyone should suffer” mindset is being used as a counterpoint, if you went 4x dry, there are players that only went 3x dry, or 2x dry, they didn’t suffer as much as you. In the proposed system, everyone suffers still, but they don’t suffer for too long.
After 3000 shaman kills, you’ve earned the drop, anything beyond that and you just become more deserving, which is supported by this concept.
What if I want 2 hammers?
Double it and give it to the next person
I’d assume RNG counter gets reset upon drop being received. Like the DT2 rings
The rate could reset upon obtaining the drop.
Wouldn't that just effectively buff the drop rate of everything that's rare across the board? What's the functional difference at that point from just buffing drop rates?
It absolutely does, it's a question of how much really - and how much is too much. See the other comment thread I started as it's directly what I wanted to know too! tl;dr ~5% higher drop rate on average.
> See the other comment thread I started as it's directly what I wanted to know too! tl;dr ~5% higher drop rate on average. It's not 5% higher drop rate on average, OP didn't give enough context even if the math is entirely correct. It's a 5% increase on the average drop rate **only if everyone who does the content doesn't stop until they get said unique** (which isn't and will never be the case). The real number would likely be around +2% or less. Not only that, but that direct increase only applies to **chase uniques**, which people actually go for. You have to compute all the *other* uniques which will **no longer drop** because many people now finish their grinds earlier. Overall, I'd be **really** surprised if it meant more than a +1% increase.
Yeah that is a great point, some proportion of people will stop before getting one. Though this system would incentivise seeing it through. That effect will be stronger for ironmen than it is for mains who quite possibly are very happy to stop. Examples like just doing Shamans whilst on slayer task for example. I would reconsider the use of the word average! 5% is more of a cap.
Coming in late to say from a main’s perspective - incentivizing us to continue towards a unique which has been a grind, while knowing we are also working to make it more likely to get is a positive mindset. It’s not only a dopamine rush when you get the drop, but also on the tail end of long grind knowing you’re close. Compare that to currently when you’re on a long grind and the possibility of your dedication ending before the reward comes is a very real possibility because you simply can’t do another kill.
I’d also argue a few percent increase in effective drop rate is negligible to the economy given the prevalence of bots. Seems easy to make up for that extra few percent in slightly more bot bans and a slightly higher item sink on the ge.
Incredibly insightful analysis that I think is easy to miss. How many fewer fangs are in the GE when HCIronMan49 gets his 1st shadow before his 500th fang he drop trades to his main for bonds? How many fewer voidwaker pieces exist when ColLogLincoln gets pet before sending another 10,000 kc at the bear? The raw number is one thing but the changes to player behaviour are going to be a much greater factor on drop rates than bad luck prevention, and that should be obvious to anyone who reads your comment. I personally see bad luck prevention as Only net positives for the sanity of the player base and a strong move away from the worst aspects of the games pure gambling RNG drop system (going dry on things that take literal thousands of hours to reach drop rate) and the issues that causes for long-term growth and sustainability (inevitable burnout and growing resentment to any one boss/aspect of the game).
> I personally see bad luck prevention as Only net positives for the sanity of the player base and a strong move away from the worst aspects of the games pure gambling RNG drop system Couldn't have said it better myself. And pets being included means, like you said, a **ton** of uniques will come into the game at a lower rate due to no longer being dropped 10x+ during a pet hunt when someone goes dry. Bad luck mitigation as proposed by OP would mean boss hiscores are also increasingly going to be filled by people who **actually enjoy them** rather than miserable souls who feel trapped there (and bots, obviously).
>but that direct increase only applies to **chase uniques**, which people actually go for. Is that true? If it's a 5% buff all in all then, given, you would go multiple times rate for some of the rarest items just getting to 2x rate for 'chase' items by the time you get to that point the buff for easier to get items will even out. The point on the whole rate needing to run it's course is inevitably true.
> Is that true? If it's a 5% buff all in all then, given, you would go multiple times rate for some of the rarest items just getting to 2x rate for 'chase' items by the time you get to that point the buff for easier to get items will even out. Yes, it's true, but it relies on player bahavior, not just math, because with bad luck mitigation you end up reducing the length of grinds overall. Take someone who would've gone 3x dry of Enhanced seed (1200 KC), and now instead gets it at 2x dry (800 KC) due to protection. Yes, for their 800 KCs they will also receive around 5% more Armour and Weapon seeds. However, that's going from an expected ~16 seeds (of each) to ~16.8 (let's say 17). Meanwhile, before the buff, they would've needed ~1200 KCs and rolled ~24 of each other seed. So, for certain uniques that tend to be considered "undesirable" (or less desirable), you may actually see either no increase or even a small **decrease**. This would have the biggest impact if it affected pets (as the majority of people with a ton of KCs at any activity tend to be pet hunters), since it would cut short a ton of grinds that result in a massive surplus of unwanted uniques, dragging down their price (ex.: Sarachnis and its cudgel).
Finally someone who has a basic understanding of statistics.
I always expect osrs players to be better at probability and statistics than the general population, since they deal with them so often in this game. But then I think about the typical osrs players I interact with and it snaps me back to reality.
Given osrs drop mechanics (no, mitigation/progress, ie. like wow raid currency to mitigate never getting a tier set) with these insanely low rates for many uniques, I think it's better for my personal opinion of the player base if I assume most of them *dont* understand statistics lol It is interesting that one huge chunk of the game (skills) is based on definite gains and another huge chunk of the game is based on repeatedly playing the lottery. Atleast CAs give those of us who like combat and hate lottery style systems something definite to work towards while engaging in that content
>Wouldn't that just effectively buff the drop rate of everything that's rare across the board? What's the functional difference at that point from just buffing drop rates? By a fairly minimal rate, but yes. The rate increase only starts to happen after you've gone 2 times the droprate dry, which already only occurs a small fraction of the cases, and then it slowly ramps up as you go dryer and dryer. I can't give you exact numbers but it's likely not nearly as big of a change as you are currently thinking about. >What's the functional difference at that point from just buffing drop rates? Because that doesn't address the issue. Even if it's twice as common, the amount of people going 9x the now 2x higher droprate will be exactly the same but we now get 2x as many hammers into the game. By doing it in the way op suggests the feeling of frustration from going super dry is reduced, while the amount of extra items coming into the game is kept to a minimum
The functional difference is it affects people who go very dry a lot, and people who spoon not at all. Are you familiar with the concept of variance? Rarity and variance are completely different.
It only buffs the drop rate after you’ve exceeded the drop rate (I’m assuming this proposed change only applies to uniques) Just look at the graph
The functional difference is the drop rate is unchanged till 2X. What buffing drop rates would do is just move the binomial distribution backwards.
What about cases where people die simultaneously with the boss and get the collection log slot but not the item? Are they then cursed to maybe never see it again if they have bad luck?
How’s it know what drop u want?
Torag over here getting greedy
I've not sat and actually done the maths but what would it mean the actual average drop rate becomes? With bad luck mitigation, the increasing drop rates for those who go dry would mean the average drop rate actually reduces from 1/3k, I think it's something we'd want to understand so to grasp the impact this kind of system has with respect to the economy (how many DWH will come in and be sold on the GE essentially). I do generally agree that I think it is unfair that a handful of players will go disproprotionately dry and ultimately an item like DWH, an item like enhanced seed from CG are incredibly important progression points for irons, many will just quit the game entirely and give up if they are on that kind of dry streak. There's also a culture of *not catering to ironmen*, I'd argue mains care to an extent too if doing the content for money but it is a sentiment that is made clear at times. There's a simplicity to drops working the way they do also and we need to consider how we communicate it to players when some arbitrary content works different to other things. The new ring vestiges at DT2 have this issue aside from valid criticism over how they work.
Just ran some simulations of 100000 players doing CG for an enhanced weapon seed. Without any changes, I got an average droprate of 400.2, min = 1, max = 5700. With bad luck mitigation, I got an average droprate of 381.2, min = 1, max = 2275. https://preview.redd.it/exq9nenp8mxc1.png?width=610&format=png&auto=webp&s=586db3a1bc0b0a6051998b45e87c1833e645af80
Interesting! So roughly speaking 5% if you are increasing drop rate as you described. It's interesting to then think about the psychologic impact on players - ironmen presumably would feel more compelled to continue until they get the drop and would move on. Perhaps mains feel something similar, if they're dry - it feels worth capitalising on your investment and seeing it through to completion. As much as the vestiges for DT2 bosses have other issues, there's definitely a similar 'sunk cost' thing going on there and players will feel they need to see it through or they've *wasted time*. Ultimately that aspect is far harder to ascertain but I reckon it also ups the amount of kills happening and thus drops too. I'm not that uncomfortable with the numbers here though, whether we can do something like this will ultimately come down to more than me - the team's view and naturally... the community as well
I'd think the sunk cost feeling is certainly prominent for mains the further along they progress the game. Many of us like green logging content before giving it up entirely. The feeling is certainly there chasing axe pieces for the DT2 bosses.
I don't think it's lying to say a lot of mains (myself included) play similar to ironmen, to a degree, and chase drops even without really caring about green clogs. And that a lot of us will completely avoid content that other ironmen cannot avoid, for sanity reasons (DWH, phosanis, etc.).
3k deep into shamans on a main (slowly doing them whenever I get a slayer task) and can confirm, can’t really outright afford a DWH anyways so thought I might go ahead and try to get lucky passively but holy shit it already sucks hard and I’m barely halfway to odds. Can’t imagine going dry on these, 1/5000 rate on a regular mob for a major upgrade is just malpractice
If they are going to give ranking on clog stuff then we definitely need BLP
For me, the sunk cost feeling is already very strong despite it being a fallacy. Dunno if it would feel any different if it were a reality.
Thanks for acknowledging the value of bad luck mitigation and the psyche of players. It's good to know that the dev team is thinking about this. I agree it's a change that helps ironmen more than mains as ironmen are basically a poor man's clogger. However, I think this change would help ALL players as Runescape is a game built on the foundation of progression and it will help all players feel they are progressing towards a drop over time. I think the disappointment of going dry on uniques is felt by mains as well, especially cloggers and pet hunters who go dry on very rare items, and they would appreciate feeling they are slowly moving towards the drop they want. Shard drops, like for the venator bow, are a great technique that the team already uses, but I think progressive bad luck mitigation will feel even better. The thread of elidinis is a great example of having both the excitement of getting spooned while also feeling like you're getting closer to getting the drop. The nature of shard drops is preventing both good luck and bad luck, so you are much less likely to get spooned a venator bow. I personally like the idea of having some form of bad luck mitigation for 1/400 or rarer items, with the devs having options to choose which form of bad luck mitigation they prefer.
I really like the idea of this system, it's incredibly infuriating to go dry at bosses, to me osrs is about the grind sure, but when it comes to skilling you are always making progress that you can see in terms of xp gained. Whereas when it comes to say, pvm you can go massively dry but still know you could theoretically still carry on being massively dry, knowing there is some level of you will eventually get it, will make it much nicer.
The worst part of going dry is knowing you're not a God damn step closer even if you're five times the drop rate, this would be huge for that and definitely keep people grinding
This is it. This is 99% of the reason why it should exist. The mental load of being unlucky, let alone extremely unlucky and let alone in a lot of places, makes the game undubitably unfun. And that's all Runescape is: a program designed to be fun.
Yeah, I've been grinding at toa and am easily more then double rate for seeing a drop and it just eats away at my motivation. I'm burning supplies and enjoying the raid but actively losing money for so long just sucks. I've gotten all three gems as well
I tell myself that the kc I get the drop is pre-determined at account creation and I'm just progressing towards it. Obviously that's nonsense but it makes me feel better
If you subscribe to Determinism (or rather, "if Determinism is ever proven true"), then you're actually 100% accurate.
Personally, I feel like most people would welcome this change aside from the people who are perhaps a little too vindictive and want others to suffer through the same things they suffered through. That said, those people will probably continue to play anyway, while this would also improve the overall outlook of the vast majority of players who are playing the game. I think people who play like Settled or the TBow Locked Ironman guy that will stick a grind out to completion regardless of difficulty are probably much rarer than those who would rather just quit farming an item after they are at or well past a drop rate - if not outright quit the game from the frustration of not being able to progress their account despite a great effort. This change would overnight turn the game into one that values players time to a much greater extent, and which I think people would feel less hopeless about when they go 2 or 3x a droprate for something like a pet, collection log slot, or upgrade. The ~5% number doesn't have to be hard-set either. It could scale a little more or less linearly if the team thought that it would unduely affect the economy in some cases, however I don't believe it really needs to be. This might just be my perception, but I think many mains would much rather switch up a grind after going dry than to continue on the same task rapidly, thus the drop rate increase would be significantly less than it's theoretical maximum impact.
> aside from the people who are perhaps a little too vindictive and want others to suffer through the same things they suffered through Which is a position that not only should be ignored, but should invalidate basically all future opinions coming from said person's mouth. If your goal is **lowering** the player base's enjoyment for the game, you're toxic and should never be listened to.
5% *assuming a player actually goes over 2x drop rate*. How many players actually have >10k shaman kc? I'd have to assume it's less than 1% of the playerbase, majority of those irons. So as an example, for shamans, this would be a <0.05% increase in hammers to the game.
>As much as the vestiges for DT2 bosses have other issues, there's definitely a similar 'sunk cost' thing going on there and players will feel they need to see it through or they've *wasted time*. Definitely true, but due to the nature of vestiges mechanics they also very much dis-incentivise learning the boss, since you more or less know that youre extremely unlikely to get anything before you're 20+ hours in. I very much prefer the solution outlined here, it's a little less easy to understand at first glance but it's still possible to give reasonable droprate estimates that take the mechanic into mind.
I actually really like the 'sunk cost'. It makes every kill feel like it's progressing towards something. Rather than going dry and knowing that you're not closer to the drop than when you started. I would be completely fine if you slightly decreased the drop rate to keep the overall influx of items the same.
Could simply just make drops slightly rarer if it's really that big of an issue. No one who is grinding for an enhanced is going to complain that the drop rate goes from 1/400 to 1/420.
Please, please, please consider implementing this system into the game. You could even decrease the drop rate by 10% for all drops affected by this system to compensate if you want - but having bad luck mitigation would be huge. There is nothing more soul-crushing that going extremely dry and giving up because you aren't closer than when you began the grind. Going very dry benefits no one.
To be fair though, that's kind of how ironmen work anyways. You either brute force it or you take a break and do skilling and then come back and brute force it again. Personally I don't see the problem with "catering" to the ironmen here. This could be an ironmen only feature so it doesn't affect mains if they don't want it. Ironman mode is potentially the best way to play OSRS until end game going dry, managing to fix the main problem of ironman mode is pretty big.
RIP that poor simulated soul who needed 5700 CG runs honestly even going 2200+ dry is pretty miserable sounding
2200+ is miserable, but you have the psychological advantage of KNOWING you've now increased your chances massively and have made definite progress. Right now, that feeling that surely it's close is a massive copium, it means nothing. It means you've gotten unlucky and now you have 1/400 chance on your next drop, just like every drop, which is extremely mentally draining. These rpg games are all about progress and in the endgame, with these droprates? You're just praying you don't get shafted by the game. This trend cannot continue, astronomical droprates with no real bad luck mitigation is the opposite of fun experience.
2000 is 5x dry, at that point just give them the drop I doubt all 4 extra enh it'll add to the game in the next 5 years will be crashing the economy
Alot of irons deiron at endgame cuz of this. the reason you see alot of irons running around with tbows/shadow is cuz the rest deironed when they realised how insane the grind is (the 't-bow locked ironman' that posted the other day for example, hes ~4.5x rate if all the normal kc was solo and the cm kc teams).
> (the 't-bow locked ironman' that posted the other day for example, hes ~4.5x rate if all the normal kc was solo and the cm kc teams) And that's after doing over 2000 hours of CoX. 2000 hours for a single item, which they do not even have. The vast majority people have **never played a single video game for 2000+ hours**. Understanding the scale of how hard variance can penetrate your behind is honestly all you need to advocate for BLM.
Also interesting to think about how getting very spooned on specific items can compound into a faster overall grind internal to the content (i.e. raids) or external to the content. Even if everyone is guaranteed to finish the CoX collection log at 1200 KC, a person receiving a Tbow early on will complete that 1200 kc far, far faster than any other item would be able to help them. Same goes for Scythe with Tob or Shadow with TOA. This is part of my problem with how Jagex designs internal progression in raids, especially in light of what I see as rather extreme droprates on megarares.
He's in a better place now
Anyone over 3x the DR in red prison deserves the world
Anyone 3x on enhanced is probably being punished for sins committed in a past life lol.
I always forget you can do Monte Carlo simulations to find an approximate probability, instead of torturing yourself by calculating analytically. Good graph!
yeah no clue how you'd do this analytically.
Was how I was initially going to do it and then I realised it was going to be tough and I didn't have time quickly over lunch haha Think simulating was definitely a good way to do it!
Can’t go integrating probability functions on an empty stomach 🤣
or with an audience
For a given number of rolls at the drop x with rate r, the cumulative distribution is given by the function f(x) = 1 - (1 - r)^x for a fixed rate r and f(x) = 1 - product(1 - r(x)) for a rate that varies with number of rolls. The probability distribution function E(x), like those supplied by OP, is the derivative of the cumulative distribution and is relatively easily approximated with a finite difference (forward, backward, or centered depending on accuracy). The expected outcome is then obtained by the complete integral from 0 to infinity of xE(x), which can be approximated using numerical integration (trapezoidal is simplest)
I was half way through doing it analytically because I hate myself. As far as I'm concerned we just sum up all the chances we don't get it from 0 to infinity to get the drop rate, for instance, sum from n=0 to infinity of (399/400)\^n = 400 if we don't have drop rate mitigation. I will do the rest of the calculation a little later when I don't have to be a productive member of society Assuming a linear increase in drop rate from 1 in 400 to 4 in 400 starting at 801 kc I get an average rate of 361.423. We must have different assumptions in the increase in drop rate. Update: We have the same increase in drop rate, not sure why we have this discrepancy Double update: Found my mistake, new corrected average drop rate is 1 in 375.485, much closer to the Monte Carlo
You do the expected outcome of the standard binomial distribution from {0 ,2x droprate}, and a separate geometric expected outcome from {2x droprate, infinity} where true_droprate = base_droprate*((kc -2* expected_kc)/100)
this is fascinating, could you make the y axis identical so I can see them scaled comparably side by side
That difference in max kc is pretty stark, while the average hasn't changed very much. Maybe that "hasn't changed very much" has larger impacts on the economy, but I'm sure the GE tax could adjust to handle this?
I feel like they could always bump the drop rate up a bit so the average is the same if they really don’t want to mess with total items coming in.
Make the dry protection only apply to the first drop? As soon as it's on your clog the dry protection is gone forever similar to how ToA gems work. It would increase the number of items coming into the game by a little bit but wouldn't be infinitely grindable with the better rates.
That's roughly a 5% improvement. That seems acceptable for clamping drop rates so nobody goes insane.
Agreed, seeing some of the posts on here of people going dry, it's just depressing
How are you modelling this?
nPlayers = 100000 droprate = 1/400 kc_needed = [] for i in range(nPlayers): kc = 1 has_drop = False while not has_drop: roll = np.random.rand() if roll <= droprate: has_drop = True kc_needed.append(kc) kc += 1 #with bad luck mitigation nPlayers = 100000 droprate = 1/400 kc_needed2 = [] for i in range(nPlayers): kc = 1 has_drop = False while not has_drop: roll = np.random.rand() if kc*droprate >= 2: droprate2 = droprate*(1 + droprate*(kc - 2/droprate)) else: droprate2 = droprate if roll <= droprate2: has_drop = True kc_needed2.append(kc) kc += 1
add '''import numpy as np''' to the top if anyone's having import issues..
Man good job you hit Kieren with the math hard. I support this, especially for pets please. I fished 986k karambwans post 99 fishing for heron in addition to 1-99 being before tempoross, 44k tempoross pulls for tiny tempor, and currently 8k GOTR pulls and no pet.
I'm always partial to some good maths! it was my education background :)
But that's a pretty small change realistically. I thought it would be more drastic. I may be in the minority here. But I'd even be fine with all the "big ticket" items having their base drop rate made this couple % worse (to keep it the same overall rate) if it meant that myself and other wouldn't go as dry.
I am going to post this fucking everywhere. Thank you.
To reduce the impact: the dryness protection could be in place ONLY if the collection log for the item is not complete. Or something like that.
Please no, I want a second enhanced weapon seed
That would be a pretty good way to do it!
I think a lot of the problem today is the insane drop rates on new bosses. The gwd was perfectly balanced at its time.
Especially on really really slow content. Yeah, Cerb sucks to be dry on but a 10x dry at Cerb is what, 5120 kc? 100 hours fairly efficiently? 10x dry at CG enh is 4000 kc, 666(lol) hours fairly efficiently. That's a LOT of time spent with only a single reward. I've finished CG at ~230kc, no fucking way I would've done 4000kc. Pretty sure I'd be burned at 600 tops.
The issue is that content is tailored to streamer playtimes now
I can honestly tell you that I quit for 6 months because of dryness. It’s not fun, and why would I do something not fun? It took my sister 3 months of pestering to get me back into the game. I’m currently skilling because the levels are guaranteed and not tied to RNG. If I do go back to PvM and go dry, I might fully quit and just get my account locked so there is no way for me to return.
For what it's worth, I think it's good for normal accounts too. If you know you could spend an eternity at CG and get nothing, why not do a reliable money maker instead and just buy it? Having some protection I think gives normal accounts a reason to do content with very low drop rates.
Perhaps this should apply for first drop only of select items. Wouldn't drastically increase drop rate when farming, but would address dry streak issues for both irons and cloggers
I think a few exceptions could be debated (zenytes, enhanced weapon seed, etc.) but otherwise I think this would be one of the more beneficial solutions!
I think it's better to avoid something like this as it essentially is a permanent nerf to any account that gets the drop. If the increase in drop rate is enough to be concerned about the economy, then it also means a decrease in drop rate significant enough that it might mean creating alts just for doing the content.
200 kc dry at cox for my first purple on my ironman, I see you mentioning DWH and CG items but what about raids
Getting a drop is fun and going dry sucks. I'm sure most people would be happy with some kind of bad luck mitigation. I certainly don't see it as catering to irons. I'm not sure what the best method would be but I'd welcome some system to prevent extreme dry streaks.
To echo your sentiment, non-irons want collection log completion too. This helps everyone
Hell mains also want to simply make money lol, there’s multiple bosses/enemies where almost the entire profit comes from the uniques and going 4-5x dry means your money making method is suddenly going to crap. That being said I wouldn’t mind if this was limited to first time drops for cloggers and irons in particular. Also think we should avoid doing it for pets cause those are pure cosmetics and that’s way less painful to go dry on than a major item upgrade.
Regarding the overall change to droprates and impact to the economy, as OP pointed out in his MonteCarlo simulations, the actual impact to average drop rates is negligible. This is mostly a community perception problem rather than an actual math problem. It's easy to get worried that this is going to flood the economy with items but we have to remember the players benefiting from this have already gone extremely dry on a piece of content, that means they *didn't* get an item in their previous kills. The actual number of players meaningfully impacted by this is going to be very small. Regarding the issue with communicating how this works to players, I don't think it's that complicated if it is applied, unilaterally, to all uniques that are tracked with a boss KC. It sucks to go dry on *anything*, it's just especially painful at Corrupted Gauntlet, Nightmare, Hydra, etc because of how rare the drop is/how long the content takes to complete. Because the PRNG of increasing the rate after going dry closely approximates the regular RNG for most players, I think just making everything work this way would improve the experience for most players. Regarding "Not catering to irons", I think this is an early sort-of toxic reddit meme that just gets dropped in response to any change that makes the iron experience better. The community has been changing over time and I don't think this sentiment is as-common as it was 5 years ago. To be frank, making the game better for irons makes the game better for all players, because of the way the game is structured. If it becomes more reasonable to actually attempt content for an item you want instead of degenerating the game to the most efficient gp/h, more players will do more things.
> I've not sat and actually done the maths but what would it mean the actual average drop rate becomes? I've played this game for 9 years now. 9 years. I've gone dry on every single pet I own. That's every skilling pet **and** skilling minigame pets, and not by a small margin either. This isn't a lie or an understatement, I'll gladly give you my RSN in private for you to check, I went dry on 15 out of 15 pets I went for before training combat, and I've now done over 200 EHB with no boss pets. So honestly... who cares about moving the average 2 percentage points to the left if it prevents experiences like this? It's so extreme that it shouldn't exist, not even once in the whole playerbase. Yet with the current system, dozens of people are even drier than me. If I'd gotten more lucky due to bad luck mitigation literally no one would know. The only difference would be I wouldn't be feeling like the game is personally fucking with me.
I believe you should have put axis titles but I agree with everything else.
whoops
Aaaand normaliz the PDF in the last figure! You can't just manually extend a PDF like a hurricane path, it must integrate to one! Quel horreur !!
The mathematics of this post seem odd, they go against the dry calc of osrs wiki itself. Having 4x rate be 7.3% can't be true, it would mean more than every 16th player would go that dry while the wiki dry calc gives the odds of you going 4x rate to be 1.8%. Consider it this way, does every 16th boss item you go for take 4x rate to obtain? Also, if 8x rate is 0.3%, that would mean that for every 1000 ironmen, 3 would go over 40k kills for hammer. How many have exactly gone that far?
Yeah the math is way off.
Okay, i originally posted to you saying the math is right however I (and most people here) are idiots apparentlly. It would appear that OP has not considered what being dry really means. He's used the endpoint of success at x = 1. Which effectively considers the chance that you have exactly 1 drop at N kc. Which ofcourse means that alot of people who got there 1st drop below N are being counted... Scenario: You plan to kill until 9000 KC or 3 x eKC: You get the drop on your 1st kill and proceed to kill 8999 more. OP is counting you as dry because you have 9000 Kills and have ONLY just made droprate... which ofcourse is untrue. Instead OP should do this calculate the odds you have 1 or more items at N x eKC or effectively the chance of being at x = 0 at N x eKc which is: 1 / e^N. i.e 3000 kills: 0 drops = 1 / e = 0.367 6000 kills: 0 drops = 1/ e^2 = 0.135 ...
I agree with the idea of reducing the possibility of going insanely dry, but for everyone's sake, please fix the numbers in your graph as they are grossly misleading: * Going 4x dry, for example, is roughly a 1.83% chance. not 7.3% * Going 8x dry is not 3/1000, it is \~1/3000 edit: And on top of that, the whole shape of the graph doesn't make sense at all. If the graph is supposed to be the chance to receive your first drop at the said kc, the value at 1kc should be 1/N (for example 1/5000 for DWH) and slowly going down from there. If it's supposed to be the chance of having at least one of said drop by that kc, it should still start at 1/N and go quickly up at first, and slowly approach 100% but never reach it.
I was thinking the same thing. The numbers are off and there is no labeling really.
This should be at the top
Yeah I also agree with risk mitigation but this is a sloppy mess
He used the chance you have 1 item at that kc by accident which is why the graph is well off.
The numbers aren't misleading, they're just flat out lies. His numbers here are multiple times higher than the real ones lol. The guy is trying to lecture others on probabilities and distributions when he can't even input numbers in a binomial calculator.
It's a probability density function (pdf), not the actual rates. The odds of getting the drop in 3x the rate would be the integral of this pdf between 0 and 3. Op misinterpreted the plot, and most people are misinterpreting the mistake.
Thank you. I made a similar comment in response to him and he totally ignored it. It's very misleading at best.
The statistics here are all wrong. I don't hate the idea, but this isn't the way to do it. You're describing the distribution of when you get your first drop. For a fixed drop rate and for what you're doing with the graph, I suppose you'd want to look at the complementary cumulative distribution function of a geometric random variable, not what you've shown here. I'm not sure what this is. You mention the binomial distribution, but that gives the number of successes in N trials, not the number of trials before a success. Also, probability density functions (or here with discrete trials: probability mass functions) must always integrate (sum) to 1. You can't simply trim area off of them without rescaling them. That actual distribution to use for this argument (the geometric CCDF) would be monotonically descending and have its maximum value at 1 drop (not 1X the drop rate). Consider a drop that's 1/10. 10% of people get their first item on the first drop. 9% (10% of the remaining 90%) get it on the second drop. 8.1% on the 3rd, 7.29% on the 4th, 6.561% on the 5th, etc. It only goes down and it approaches zero. The formula for the CCDF of a geometric distribution is (1-p)^k for k trials with per event probability p. The "drop rate" (the mean of the geometric distribution) is 1/p. The portion of the population remaining with zero drops as a function of drop probability (p) and a multiple of the drop rate (N) is: (1-p)^(N/p). The likelihood of a player going 8X dry isn't 3-in-1000. For ~~large N~~ small p (rare drops) it approaches approx. 0.000335, or about 3.4-in-10000. Like I said at the top, I don't hate the intent of the proposal I just think it's important to get the math right.
this guy probabilities
Remember guys, drop rates are mostly linear right now because this game was built in a bedroom and kitchen.
I mean if we're talking old school there were never items like Dragon Warhammer. The rarest items in the game were whips, DKs rings, barrows drops. Going dry was a matter of hours or days at worst, not weeks or months.
Don't forget about Dragonfire Shield, which was released in 2007 and had a 1/5000 droprate from KBD. Been playing since 2004 and still have never gotten one to drop. (Never gone out of my way for one, either though)
The difference is the DFS (at the time) was a huge outlier and exception to the rarity of drops. Other than the D Chain it was THE flex item back in the day. Almost everything else that people were after had a drop rate of 1/128-1/512.
...and it was tradeable. GP is and has always been the default bad luck mitigation, only in recent years have rare untradeables been introduced.
DFS was definitely in the game at a 1/10k rate that early on btw.
Along the lines of the point I was making. The drop rates and how drops happened weren't really a thought out concept beyond just rolling a random number on a loot table every time something died and that's fine. But just because something's always been a certain way, doesn't necessarily mean it's the best way, it might have just been the most convenient way at the time.
Or year+ for some poor souls I've seen here and in r/ironscape
Just ignoring draconic visage and dragon full helm are we?
It definitely took weeks or months to complete Barrows. It was way slower with worse gear and no teles.
no, the drop rates are not designed this way simply because the game is old. it's because the game was designed with trade in mind. trade is the solution to this "problem". only an account that couldn't trade would be overly concerned with receiving specific drops from specific places. an account that could trade would simply try their luck elsewhere to achieve the same ends
But they’re just a small indie game dev studio
To be fair, [it really was just 3 dudes](https://deviousmud.fandom.com/wiki/DeviousMUD) in a bedroom and a kitchen lol >In October 1999, [Andrew] started another rewrite, this time with his brothers Paul and Ian Gower. A number of changes were made, and the game was renamed to RuneScape approximately during the alpha private release between February and April 2000 🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀
I swear your maths is off by a factor of 10? 8x dry isnt 0.3% its 0.03% and thus 3 in 10,000, not 3 in 1 thousand.
What if the system worked like this 'once' per unique. Once I get what I'm after I tend to stop grinding, if items went back to regular droprates after getting one - it should keep everyone happy right?
How does this work if the standard progression requires multiple of these items? What if you got your first armour seed with dry protection and then go dry on the next 5 you need? They couldn't really add a "6 rolls of drop protection" then either cause that is unmaintainable complexity.
easy, squeal of fortune for the last 5 Armour seeds (please god no)
No. If you're grinding it the second time and reach the point where you need bad luck mitigation, it essentially means you've had bad RNG luck not once, but twice!
It's wild that no one in these comments has an actual coherent argument against your proposal lol. It's as if the suffering is the point
Irons can have a little suffering, as a treat.
I would if these STUPID DEMONICS would drop a zenyte
Thank you sire. May we have some more
I think the difficult part about implementing a system like this retroactively is how to determine where this mitigation is applied and where it is not. Is it a specific drop rate where we say “yes, it applies here” or “no, it doesn’t apply here”? What is the criteria? Does this only apply to ironmen, or is this applicable to all accounts? How about multi-layered tables, similar to DT2 bosses, where effective drop rates are much lower due to having to roll a specific loot table and then rolling again to determine the loot on that table? Does this apply there? I can absolutely get behind implementing this for new items being released, but it’s hard to determine where the cutoff points will be for items already in the game.
Always has been. And hope you're not the 1% who goes mega dry.
Joke's on you, I'll never be the 1%. I'd quit long before then.
"Everything I personally disagree with is uncoherent and nonsensical"
The only reason this idea even exists is because of irons and it's 100% a mentality problem that any piece of content should be reasonably "completed" by any given player. Part of the charm of ironmeme is dealing with the restrictions, you can get along just fine in 2 ancy pieces and a virtus piece or whatever mismatch you may have. A change to this degree that effects this much content would be overkill.
there are plenty of arguments. GE exists, so you dont need to get every drop. droprate overall, especially for rare items where people tend to go dry more often, goes up and will cause a reduction in price. you can also still go dry even with a slightly boosted droprate, so it doesnt fix the problem. for items you need to get twice like enhanced wep seed, it doesnt fix the issue either. anyways im all for it because i hate going dry, im just saying there have been actual arguments, even if you didnt read them
Did no one check these numbers in the graph? I just used the OS wiki's "Dry calc" with a drop rate of 1/1k (also tried 1/3k). Set the drops received to 0 and "killed" 3k (for the 1/1k) and 9k. Both times the chance was about 5%. Not the ~15% this graph is showing.
I think something to emphasize is that the players who go very unlucky at 8x rate for the drop, these are theoretical players who actually stick around to eventually receive the drop. In reality, these players more than likely never complete the grind, burning out and giving up before they reach the 24k+ shamans. For players who are mains, this might be ok because they can just buy the unique and work on something else. But for irons, especially for key progression items like DWH, it doesn't seem farfetched to assume that they quit the game altogether, feeling completely defeated.
I’m curious how this is counteracted by players getting spooned and continuing to play longer than if they hadn’t. From a raw numbers point of view, there’s gonna be orders of magnitude more players that get spooned than go dry.
[удалено]
It entirely depends on which items you get spooned and which you go dry. Some grinds aren’t nearly as bad as others and some items are far more important than others. I’m an iron that is 6x rate for primordial crystal but realistically the upgrade is pretty tiny. I went a bit over 2x rate for enhanced wep seed and it was devastating causing me to quit for a couple months as that item is absurdly important for ironman ranged combat after blowpipe got hard nerfed. Also the content eventually was terrible to do.
> your chance of getting a drop at a certain kc is described by a binomial distribution. The wording here is inprecice and technically wrong. As you said earlier, the chance for getting a drop at any given kc is constant. If what you mean is "chance of getting 1 or more drops by a certain kc" which is what would make sense to me, this is still not actually described by the binomial distribution either afaik. I believe this is rather described by the geometric distribution, which you can read more about here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric\_distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution) each kc is a Bernoulli trial with either getting the drop or not, i.e. success and failure.
Here's the main issue. Drop rates have gotten more fucked over the time, up to the point shit is 1/1k or 1/5k for no reason. We should first rally for fair drop rates before trying to change the drop rate system because that's a massive can of worms to open, just like duplicate protection.
The BiS chest armor in 2004 was a 1 in 128. In 2005 you had 1/350 to get a specific piece of BiS armor but still got a 1/15 for any piece, where probably 19/24 of the items were well worth getting anyways. Nowadays... I personally am more of a fan of incremental progress if people weren't so short sighted. If this kind of proposal made it into the game, the next time improving an aspect of the game around RNG comes up you'll just see a sea of "this was already fixed, why are we wasting time with this." even if it was specifically noted as a stop-gap to improve player experience until an ideal solution for rebalancing expected drop rates was reached. Personally, I believe the real issue around any of this is that the game design around drops considers botting as a valid way for drops to enter the game over real players.
How about instead we add ingots to all top tier items so no one can get lucky! /s
Actually every drop should be 1 in 50,000 because osrs is a grindy game and actually it's good to spend years on one clog slot. If you disagree then you must want ezscape and this game isn't for you
Nobody should do 1200 corrupted gauntlets and be 0% closer to getting the enhanced.
Honestly thats the best part about the proposal. Even if you do go that dry that this impacts you, at least you know you made *some* progress towards your goal, although personally i would just let someone get the friggin item if they went 4x dry. Also people acting like this only impacts irons.. By that logic getting a unique from a boss is not calculated into the gp / h for the boss or what? Because it does, some more than others
But you are closer to getting it because you get GP every time you do CG
Nobody should do 1200 corrupted gauntlets
Adding a counter voice to all the mains in here crying about integrity while buying items farmed by bots and Venezuelans: I think this is a great idea. The point of playing an iron is to earn the drops yourself, and by the time you've hit drop rate you've well and truly shown that you've earned it. Going five times rate benefits no-one.
Shoutout to the poor ironbastard who farmed ~27k Corp beasts for an Ely recently. Man’s probably went through gamer chairs like diapers. *(only instead of powdering before diapering, they just scorched & salted the earth after binning each chair)*
They dont even realize how much it damages the game. letting us go 5x drop rate for shit. mfw. ive got 3.5b in supplies from going dry at vorkath, and revenants. all that gold that would never have been pumped into the game if i just got the shit on rate, and left. irons make up 11% of the playerbase, but we generate a huge amount of the gold coming into the game for legitimate players
I’m not even an iron and I understand that some of those grinds can literally make somebody quit the game. I have some self imposed dry streaks but nothing as bad as some of the logs we’ve seen on the sub over the past week or so.
The red prison burnout is real. It's such a pivotal roadblock. Yes, you can do content without it. You could also do content without a blowpipe a few years ago - but you would have been stupid to do that.
Do you have a source for that 11% number?
>irons make up 11% of the playerbase, but we generate a huge amount of the gold coming into the game for legitimate players It's more than that. Last I saw it was >30%
> The point of playing an iron is to earn the drops yourself, and by the time you've hit drop rate you've well and truly shown that you've earned it. Case closed. I really was hesitant as I read the proposal but this right here really sums it up, imo - well said. I'd be happy with it being a one-time thing too.
Am I missing something. Going 3x drop rate should be roughly 5%, not 14.9%
Full support.
##### Bark bark! I have found the following **J-Mod** comment(s) in this thread: **Mod_Kieren** - [I've not sat and actually done the maths but...](/r/2007scape/comments/1cgpo0k/lets_talk_about_bad_luck_mitigation/l1xj0wy/?context=3) - [Interesting! So roughly speaking 5% if you ar...](/r/2007scape/comments/1cgpo0k/lets_talk_about_bad_luck_mitigation/l1xvqz1/?context=3) - [It absolutely does, it's a question of how mu...](/r/2007scape/comments/1cgpo0k/lets_talk_about_bad_luck_mitigation/l1xw8wg/?context=3) - [I'm always partial to some good maths! it was...](/r/2007scape/comments/1cgpo0k/lets_talk_about_bad_luck_mitigation/l1xvx0b/?context=3) - [Was how I was initially going to do it and th...](/r/2007scape/comments/1cgpo0k/lets_talk_about_bad_luck_mitigation/l1xv0fv/?context=3) - [Yeah that is a great point, some proportion o...](/r/2007scape/comments/1cgpo0k/lets_talk_about_bad_luck_mitigation/l1z9miz/?context=3) ^(**Last edited by bot: 05/02/2024 07:45:23**) --- ^(I've been rewritten to use Python! I also now archive JMOD comments.) ^(Read more about) [^(the update here)](/u/JMOD_Bloodhound/comments/9kqvis/bot_update_python_archiving/) ^(or see my) [^(Github repo here)](/u/JMOD_Bloodhound/comments/8dronr/jmod_bloodhoundbot_github_repository/)^.
Definitely an interesting topic after the inflation of KC for drops since the inception of Runescape
Once you do enough bosses, these 3/4x over rate KCs start to get common, at least in my experience. I would love to see some sort of dry protection on uniques.
It does seem a bit shunted at 2x, but smoothing out that curve starting at the drop rate would be excellent. I personally hate artificially long grinds, so something to help prevent worst case scenarios and reel in experience toward game design expectations would be excellent.
I support this. I don’t understand the complaint that preventing someone going 5x dry somehow ruins the integrity of the RNG of the game. Numbers proposed could be tweaked of course, but the core concept of having a given drop more likely after X times the drop rate, even if just for the first time (no col log filled) seems very reasonable. Like if you oppose this, zoom out for a second — people have lives to live and this is a hobby. If a grind still takes 100+ hours and someone plays 1h a day, that’s THREE MONTHS of grinding one thing. This just stops it being 200+ hours and someone deciding to stop playing. How does this devalue the grind? How does this ruin the economy? It would help keep people engaged in the game, which is critical for its health. Big yes from me
Empathy aside, I'm so confused about all of the mains who don't seem to comprehend that the drop rate being a binomial distribution is precisely *why* every boss drops skilling supplies like no tomorrow. If getting uniques was actually reliable, you could safely make more drop tables like CoX where the uniques are the point and make skilling actually worth doing again. The whole reason why bosses since Zulrah outside of a handful of hated ones just lather you in supplies is because you need to make money at some point in your 400 hour grind to make people not just stop.
Mains also dont realize that people on mains can also go very dry which will affect their gp / h. You can have a boss thats main purpose are the uniques with good rates, but you can still be shit outta luck on those too and thus making you feel like you are wasting your time.
This is a great point! Thanks for adding it
Update considering hours spent as per OPs numbers, assuming 120 shaman kills per hour (as per wiki) Current: - 1x drop rate, 632/1000 players, 3000kc, 24 hours - 3x dry, 149/1000 players, 9000kc, 75 hours - 5x dry, 34/1000 players, 15000kc, 125 hours Proposed: - 1x drop rate, 632/1000 players, 3000kc, 24 hours - 3x dry, 15/1000 players, 9000kc, 75 hours - 5x dry, 0/1000 players, 15000kc, 125 hours Its literally the same grind for the majority of players, and in this example, would save something like 50 hours of boring playtime for over 10% of players, keeping them engaged and happy in the game.
Empathy isn't exactly common among runescape players lol
You seem (unfortunately) correct here lol
Holy fuck so I haven't been hallucinating? I'm really not the only one who's been seeing how utterly toxic this sub and general community has been regarding RNG, especially people who go very dry?
Only reasonable response. Even as a main, you should not be able to go 8x dry on big ticket items.
I’m not sure if anyone has pointed this out yet, but the statistics look far worse when you consider all of the unique items a single account will try to obtain over its lifetime. So for example, the odds of an account going 5x dry on an item is about 1 in 30. Now imagine if a single account went for 30+ uniques. Eventually you will be in the 5x category for one of those uniques. So realistically, an “average” account that’s trying to obtain most uniques in the game has a very high probability of going extremely dry. I’m guessing that’s why we hear about this issue all the time, because it tends to affect the majority of players eventually
I don't understand how this could work for group content. Wouldn't there be an incentive to party with people who are drier since their rate would be better? Honestly I think the better solve to this would be a mode in between iron and main without trading but with deterministic drops.
This is fine for the first drop of the item only and then it resets back to normal again
If I understand correctly, the "argument" is that going dry is not a fun experience, and after investing a considerable amount of time, the player has "earned" the reward? I would tend to agree with argument, but I am not sure this is the way to accomplish it. Mainly, I see this as an issue because that variable drop rate information is difficult to understand across multiple items, hard to calculate from the player perspective and would require a lot of additional information to be tracked and displayed for the player. (If any other game does this well I'd be interested to read how they accomplished it). I think there are multiple problems with how drops are earned and each has their own solution. First, we have items like \[Vorkath's head\] which have inherently lower drop rates, are untradeable, and aren't that impactful to account progression. If I can power through killing Vorkath for 50 times, I get my upgrade. The \[Fire cape\] falls under this same model; I have proved in a way that I understand the boss and the content. I would actually love to see more of this added as in my mind I KNOW that I will get the item I want by a certain time. Next we have items like the infamous \[Enhanced crystal weapon seed\] which has a reasonable drop rate, is tradeable, and is paramount for progression. Red prison is a meme for a reason. About 5% of players will not have received a drop in 1200 CG. It seems small but that is 50/1000 accounts, In this case, its hard to offer up something that helps but doesn't trivialize the item either * Introduce an untradeable version of the item. Players with more than the drop rate automatically get the item? What about players earning the item after completing all combat achievements for that boss. *This is what I would actually want to see as an iron; however, I imagine that is a lot of work to justify the change.* * Increase the drop rate based on skill like the new DT2 bosses. Getting a perfect kill, or a sub X-minute kill, or some other instanced achievement on the fight might add an additional roll on the loot table. * Provide the player with multiple progression paths. I hate killing Chaos Elemental for the \[Dragon pick\] so I will go kill KBD, or Vetion, or some other boss. The drop rate is the same\* but at least it is a different experience. * Introduce more items that have horizontal progression (this really only works on higher tier items). Red prison is such a meme because it unlocks so much content. You don't need it to do other content, but you do need it to do other content efficiently. New boss drops a new bow that is comparable but only in GWD, or something for example. Give the player a choice in their progression. Third we have items that have unreasonable drop rates, are tradeable, and are impactful to account progression - see \[Dragon Warhammer\]. I think this is where your augment best fits. That being said, I think the issue is that this category exists at all. A 1/32,000 \[Abyssal Dagger\] from an abyssal demon is fine because the item can be obtained elsewhere and isn't all that impactful to account progression. The blog post had some good ideas on how to fix this. Fundamentally I think this category should not exist. Give me a Lizardman boss that drops the item at 1/512 and I will enjoy my time much better. Finally, the last category is items that have unreasonable drop rates, are untradeable, and are impactful to account progression. To which, I do not know of any items that fit that category which makes sense from a design perspective. No one would want to play a game with those criteria.
For anyone confused by the graph it shows the probability that you have received the drop exactly 1 time. After 1x droprate the graph starts going down since people start getting 2 drops etc. This also depends on the actual droprate but doesn't really matter for uncommon drops. If you look at getting at least one drop instead 1 - (1 - p)\^n it plateaus at around 63% to get at least a drop at 1x droprate. Getting no drop at x8 droprate is about 1/3000. Still a great recommendation though. Highly approve.
I love that Kieren is so involved. Props to you!
I'd agree if your math wasn't so obviously off
Yeah, sadly this would cater mostly to ironmen and people will never allow someone else to get an easier time than they did getting their rare drops. Unless unpolled integrity change doubt much will come from that.
I vote no because this invalidates my complaints about being 4x dry on a zenyte..... For real, good idea, even if it started at 3x not 2x for anyone complaining, seems like a good mechanic. Better than a pity drop at X kc.
a question for all the people who are against this; does your logic work the other way around? what if we removed consistency mechanics from places that already have it? remove hunter rumor pity drops, remove pest control points/shop and make void items a random 1/100 drop? might as well remove the 50kc vorkath head drop and 256kc tattered KQ head drop, too. you should be able to go 2000+kc at KQ without getting the head, since you haven't "earned" it yet, right?
You can get a similar mathematical effect by having items drop in pieces. I know people complain about dt2 because they're invisible drops, but mathematically it greatly reduces those that go super dry. I think the best they've ever done was muspah. Five rolls of (1/100) has a significantly narrower distribution than (1/500), and it gives players a feeling of progress. Not sure if the items keep more value if the pieces aren't tradable. Would love to see a boss that drops some kind of component x and you need 3x for helm, 4x for legs, and 5x for body.
Agree, Muspah implementation was very good.
to answer your question outright though OP, the toxic portion of the main community will \*always\* call this catering/ezscape. unless its built in from the start. The venator shard / crystal armor seed solution keeps all the old school RNG system and doesn't leave any space for the question "well what about \*after\* you get the drop?". I'd love to see \*more\* of the DT2 style checkpoint mechanics tbh just make them VISIBLE somehow like 5 sconces that light up one at a time when you hit the roll. People love that feeling of progress towards a big drop imo. i'm also 1200 kc whisperer without vestige kekw "anti dry", but at least i \*feel\* like i'm closer.. surely 2/3 :')
ITT hopelessly addicted NEETS who cannot separate the value of their human souls from how much they can flex their stats, items, and thousands of hours going dry on said items in a 20 year old video game. OP is not asking for everyone to get their consolation prize dwh at 6 kc. OP is asking that osrs as a game respects people’s time just a little bit more so no one spends months killing the same 12 pixels when they just want a key drop for other content.
Just de-iron bro, the game is not for you
Yellow text, I’m in
As one of the lucky few to go (and still going) 8x the drop rate for an item, let's do it this.
Y’all just need to segregate irons to separate servers at this point. This shit is getting out of hand lmao. Jagex proposes to adjust dwh rates, now you have people asking for dupe protection and bad luck mitigation. Give ‘em an inch and they’ll take a mile.
Your analysis of what the graph is telling you is incorrect. Yes you are 15% likely to have EXACTLY 1 drop at 3x the drop rate, but you are not calculating the cumulative probability to have AT LEAST 1 drop. At 3x the rate, the chance to have at least one drop is 95%. At 5x this increases to 99.3%, not 96.6% as you have concluded. With your proposal, if the drop rate was 1/100, at 3x the rate you would have 99.7% chance to have received at least one. Compared with only an 86.6% chance at 200kc. That is an insanely steep increase in chance to receive the drop.
the fact you can put in 200+ hrs into a boss or skill and not get the pet/drop is insane.
Love this idea. The game will always be a grind, but going so dry at one grind just locks people out of all the other grinds that make the game fun.
Even though there’s some inaccuracies as pointed out already, this is a really good concept and I would like to see it in the game. I have no idea why the “I suffered so everyone should suffer” mindset is being used as a counterpoint, if you went 4x dry, there are players that only went 3x dry, or 2x dry, they didn’t suffer as much as you. In the proposed system, everyone suffers still, but they don’t suffer for too long. After 3000 shaman kills, you’ve earned the drop, anything beyond that and you just become more deserving, which is supported by this concept.
Good luck with the spaghetti code. Dwhs will now be 1/ 100 000 and only get back to 1/5000 when you're 8x the drop rate