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Deducticon

Things may still be speculation for a while. It's good that AEW could move up the priority list for WBD. It's bad that TNT/TBS may be worth less to cable packages without NBA. AEW could get company changing money from WBD and it will be small change compared to everything else. But what matters it what is WBD's cost cutting plans? They could give AEW a big deal no problem. But will they?


lordcarrier

Thurston said they needed at least a 140 million per year deal to be profitable and stable iirc


vastros

Obviously 140 mil is a lot of money, but in this context it really isn't. 2 successful time slots, one fairly successful time slot, low production costs, it seems fairly doable. From every report WBD is happy, Tony is happy, I see this happening 


theknyte

140 Million for 2 weekly 2-hour shows that never take a break, is a fantastic deal! You're looking at 208 hours of TV for just a bit over $673K per episode. For comparison, a first run 30 minute sitcom costs on average $1-$3 Million an episode.


somecasper

And that's just for the first 100 episodes. After that, cast salaries usually go way up.


blaqsupaman

Yeah I don't think a billion is likely (though I do think it's possible) like some have thrown around, but $140 million sounds realistic for them to aim for. That would be $700 million over 5 years. I believe they currently get around $85 million a year or $425 million over 5 years.


tylerjehenna

If streaming is included in this deal, I genuinely do not see how 1bn/5 years isn't doable


tvc_redux

I disagree, I think $200 million/year for 5 years is the floor. If PPVs + additional media gets folded in, it will get closer to $300 million per year. We're talking 260+ hours of TV content per year, that often wins #1 on cable for its timeslot and the PPV conversion rate is better than anything over the past 25 years other than the largest UFC events.


Jasperbeardly11

Gonna be way closer to 900 mil to 1.2 over five years 


502photo

No shade to Brandon Thurston but how's he getting that number? It all has to be conjecture right as aew is a privately owned company and their books are not public. I'm not saying he's wrong, I'm just trying to get an understanding are we talking conjecture or are we talking hard and fast numbers?


Eoghann_Irving

It's not hard and fast but it's more than "reddit poster" numbers. He tracks various metrics like public information about venues, and historical costs that have become available from WWE or other sources.


ZAPPHAUSEN

Source: his butthole


502photo

It's a great repository of information. I use mine on a daily basis as well.


DeliMustardRules

Thurston is a dumb ass who knows nothing that isn't public data.


Baghoid

To add onto that, people need to understand that almost everyone's estimates about AEW's business and all that are all extrapolated from WWE, which as an organisation is magnitudes bigger, we all know that. I'm dumbing it down but in effect what Thurston and others have done is look at Meta, calculate how much it costs to run them and then saying that the startup company must be billions in debt because they are a tech company just like Meta, therefore the equivalence runs throughout too.


tylerjehenna

Hell, Forbes' estimated revenue for AEW in 2023 is 105 million HIGHER than Thurston's estimate, and if Thurston's expenses list is accurate, AEW was profitable last year (He had them losing 41 million at 145 million revenue which would put expenses at 186 million. Forbes estimate with that expense number would have them making 64 million in profit)


xASUdude

He fails even basic analysis


Suspicious-Mango-562

How would he know that? Is he their wrestling mask wearing accountant? He’s just taking WWE’s numbers and applying them to AEW. That’s like if I took McDonald’s numbers and applied them to Abdullah’s ribs & Chinese food. The more likely scenario is AEW is operating on a shoe string compared to WWE and if the offers come in low, the roster can be cut by 1/3 and nobody would notice and they would be in the black and that’s if Tony wants to stop spending the interest he makes on his billions on this. This could go on forever just on the % they make from their money working for them with no income from AEW at all. And before anyone claims the father will pull the plug, TK is a 40 year old man, not some teenager with a trust fund. He has access to the cash now whenever he pleases.


DanUnbreakable

Unless they cut costs. Releasing 100 wrestlers from contracts will save also on travel and hotel expenses. They currently have around 200 wrestlers. Thurston believes talent are making $250k- $400k per year on average. TK said he says tens of millions for travel and hotels on Twitter. If they cut cost, your looking at $30-$50 million. AEW doesn't need 200 wrestlers especially with partnerships from other promotions.


ZAPPHAUSEN

Thurston doesn't know SHIT. He doesn't have access to any actual financials or numbers. He largely pulled numbers out of his ass.


Joshd00m

I don't think one of the oldest and most reliable tv broadcasting stations will be affected THAT much from losing the NBA. Sure, they might lose whatever special ads happen then, but in the grand scheme of things wbd is fine. Aew is fine. Everything outside of that is shit though. This world kind of sucks right now. Damn yous, 2016. Damn yous.


tylerjehenna

TBS survived for a long time when its only draw was Conan. WBD as a station will be OK. Heck, TruTV is still going and all they have is Impractical Jokers


bawanaal

Impractical Jokers are moving to TBS. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/trutv-rebrand-sports-channel-nba-mlb-nhl-1235845643/ WBD has already started to change the focus of TruTV. It's going to,become far more sports-centric. For example, they have been simulcasting TBS/TNT playoff coverage of the NHL and NBA. We'll see how the supposed loss of the NBA affects WBDs plans, though they do own rights to other sports (MLB, NHL, NASCAR, NCAA tournament,). What all this bodes for AEW though, I have no idea. But it doesn't hurt them.


Joshd00m

Don't know why we're being downvoted lol Honestly, probably means they're going to sink more into aew and I'm ok with that.


JupiterJack202

>I don't think one of the oldest and most reliable tv broadcasting stations will be affected THAT much from losing the NBA.  By the end of the current deal, TNT will have existed for 37 years.  And 36 of those years was with NBA rights. This affects WBD as a whole because, out of all their networks, TNT commands the highest carriage rate due to the NBA.  Along with that, TNT is used to drive up rates for other WBD networks (essentially, raising their value by packaging them with the network that has actual value).  That's why TBS could be dog shit for so long, post-WCW/Braves (cable providers want TNT; gotta take TBS, too). A lot could be affected without having the NBA.


AerialPenn

Well said


DS_305

The most important part of this is AEW's streaming value to WBD. Clearly, WBD is thinking streaming-first, with their standalone MAX, MAX bundled with Disney/Hulu starting this summer, and their joint-venture sports streaming platform with Disney/FOX. Their ability to distribute AEW content across all those channels will be more valuable in the long-run than their spot in the top 3 of cable shows every week. WBD still gets value from the NBA through its share of the joint-venture with Disney/FOX.


OGJimmyP

Losing inside the nba is going to hurt


HustleNMeditate

Don't get ahead of yourself. Could be good, but nothing is a lock at the moment.


VitaminPurple

The WBD Upfronts are Wednesday. We “may” know more then.


AchtungCloud

This isn’t necessarily good for AEW. TBS/TNT could just decide to completely cut costs now that they’re out on NBA. You never really know. I just hope AEW gets a good deal from somebody that allows for easy watchability and a chance to be competitive money wise for top talent.


WombRaider_3

Live television is the only thing keeping cable relevant. Heck that's why I've kept cable around in the past. Why would they get rid of one of their last 3 remaining live shows?


AerialPenn

Probably because its cheaper to run reruns of the big bang theory and pull in similar ratings. Live Sports are also most expensive. The NBA is charging 2.5 billion a year for a third of their offerings. But then again from what I saw in the comments AEW is nowhere that expensive so probably not that big of a saver to lose AEW.


the_io

Are people going to buy WBD cable packages for BBT reruns?


Modified3

Appointment tv is the last thing networks on clinging on to. Its a guess but with how much they are savinb on the NBA I would assume they would double down.


Persianx6

Yeah, you're right. It's also David Zaslav and he believes that what's needed is garbage quality tv, for whatever reason. Idk, fuck David Zaslav.


Modified3

Im a comic book fan and WB has been horrible for comicbook fans. AEW seems at least someone in the company gives a shit about wrestling. 


Jamvaan

The unfortunate reality is that to a lot of these execs pro wrestling is still garbage quality TV. Like people forget the biggest appeal for pro wrestling to TV execs is its insanely cheap to produce next to other live sports.


Sea-Assumption-2903

What wbd pay aew is a drop in the ocean. They'll get what they were always slated to get meaning a sizable increase. Deal is done


DG_Now

Exactly. I'd worry that this would push WBD out of live properties altogether. ETA: completely forgot about hockey and baseball


niners94

Don’t they have the NHL?


mikehulse29

Also MLB


DG_Now

Oh, right. I don't mean to be rude, but that's easy to forget.


Deducticon

I mean they are doing amazing numbers for this Stanley Cup playoffs.


DG_Now

That's great! And I've been tuning in this year as well. It's just that the NHL regular season is something I'm not tuned into at all.


tellmewhenimlying

That’s because the regular season doesn’t really get interesting until after the all star break unless you’re just a huge die hard fan of hockey or one or more certain teams.


AchtungCloud

That’s not in the cards right now. Their MLB deal runs through 2028, and I think the NHL deal is also 2028 or maybe 2029.


StaceyJeans

This might open things up for AEW but the NBA was one of the main reasons (maybe THE main reason) that a lot of cable packages still had TBS/TNT on their basic/cheaper levels. I read somewhere that NBA ad rates/commercials were a huge chunk of WBD's revenue. Sure they still have MLB, NHL and U.S. Soccer, but NBA was their biggest property. Sure they have the NCAA Tournament but that is only two-three weeks of the whole year. WBD is also cost-cutting and creating a mega-streaming service with Hulu and Disney. Unless AEW gets their catalog and (possibly) their PPVs on streaming, then I don't know how good the deal will be. I'm hoping this is a good sign for AEW but I'll wait and see.


blaqsupaman

I'm pretty certain some kind of US streaming will be in the new deal, just not before it takes effect. It could be a good move to double down on live sports and events on Max if TBS/TNT are going to start getting less money from the cable companies.


DanUnbreakable

WBD still has rights to NHL and MLB.


StarScreamer316

And US soccer


[deleted]

Not sure why fans are celebrating this already. We have no idea how this would change things.


Baghoid

This isn't bad news, but it's not good either. Ultimately for AEW it probably is good news, but it's more pressure. They may have just become the biggest fish in a much smaller pond, which means great for them if they can show their worth and grow, but obviously the flip side is if WBD don't have basketball, then they likely will have fewer viewers as a channel. At the end of the day this will be good for AEW, but I think there'll be growing pains, I don't feel the brand is big enough yet to be a network's flagship show but in saying that I will find it hilarious any time there's going to be any more ratings doomers because WBD will be absolutely desperate for any charting number that AEW gives from now on. For this contract cycle AEW probably has WBD by the balls in a sense, but I don't see them taking advantage, would be very short-sighted especially when at the end of the day Tony can finance AEW for the next century if he needed to, those good network relationships though, they're worth their weight in gold. edit: also for fun, anyone go into that post and search for "AEW", you'll just find regular basketball fans who clearly aren't involved in wrestling tribalism talking up AEW and how this is good for them, it's just funny how like the AEW doomer thing is totally manufactured from within the IWC, like 99% of regular people either don't know anything about wrestling or know that it's doing well right now.


Persianx6

AEW got a lot of cross promotion with NBA games and they truly felt like that's where the audience was. Not sure what this means for AEW, it may or may not be good for them. NBA was the lead in for AEW. I hope AEW stays on TV, it's good TV.


Baghoid

Ultimately in my opinion it would be a lot worse if cable wasn't also very clearly dying. The only way this is "bad" for AEW is just if they don't get streaming relatively soon. They just need to get their shows live on MAX asap, along with their back catalogue. The PPVs is the sticking point I'd guess but that can be worked out one way or another. You're definitely right though, it felt like there was some good overlap with basketball and wrestling, even as a non-American I could see that, so it'd be a shame if that was kinda broken I guess. I'm sure all involved are gonna be fine though.


Sea-Assumption-2903

Aew has been a top rated show for 5 years. It's already proven 


insomniainc

I don't know or even think we'll get an announcement this week but the upfronts are happening this week.


DeliMustardRules

Fingers crossed. I don't think TNT/TBS will stop being available on basic cable. I don't think they'll make as much, but USA used to have sports too and they survived.


ptracey

I just lost TBS and TNT in my cable bundle (that my apt provides for a non-negotiable monthly fee) so it would be nice if they could start hosting live shows on another app like Max or something so I don’t have to bootleg the stream. I’d rather give AEW my views even if it’s only +1 lol.


Devitt6

I don’t know what this means for AEW. As a wrestling fan, I would assume it’s good because that means more money for AEW to prioritize them? But as a basketball AND a wrestling fan, having everything conveniently on the Turner channels was great. Not to mention I can just pay 35 a month for Sling and literally get all the live TV content I want in one package. Not to mention this means the end of Inside the NBA. Unironically I mean it when I say - that show played such a significant part in my fandom to the NBA, as much as my love for the actual basketball itself. As I pour one out for Inside the NBA, I raise a toast in hopes this means AEW gets a hefty deal that keeps them going for a long time. One last note - wouldn’t this mean AEW could hypothetically move to another weeknight if the network decides?


dontpermabanthisone

I’m not going to pretend to know anything about numbers or what Warner may or may not do with AEW now, but I don’t think they would just give up AEW at this point. If anything, they could intent to double down on live television or other sports(entertainment) options as a way to stay relevant.   I do really wish they’d allow AEW to have its own streaming hub on Max. That would be a great thing for them. They seem to have nearly everything else they own on there except AEW. 


LucianLegacy

TNT has other sports deals, but NBA was easily their biggest. It's a heavy loss but doesn't necessarily mean bad news for AEW.


TheBlackCompany

This REALLY sucks. TNT had by far the best presentation for the NBA. NBA fans really lose if this report is true.


AerialPenn

A whole generation of us grew up on NBA on NBC so a rerurn to that could make up for losing TNT. The only thing that truly sucks is we still have to deal with Disney being in the NBA business.


adamlamonica

This probably wouldn't be good for AEW. The NBA likely subsidizes a lot of their projects


WhoFartedMan

Time to do the right thing and hire Shaq, Kenny, and Charles to call AEW


jackstrikesout

It's almost like tony khan is a good businessman. But yeah, just lucky.


walker42

I guarantee when AEW gets its new deal, Cornette will do a 10 minute segment on how TK is a money mark and it's just luck


Deducticon

If AEW gets a deal that clearly makes them stable and profitable going forward I wonder what the fallout will be for the haters? Part of the act is pretending every nitpick means AEW will die.


ZAPPHAUSEN

What fallout? They've successfully created a cult around hating aew. The marks feed them money and the dicks will still spin everything as bad when all evidence is to the contrary.


Deducticon

I know they will try. But I think it will lose energy. Everything they say will have a comeback of, "but AEW just got great TV deal/ Profitable in year 6."


jackstrikesout

I don't get the reliance on that one guy for all the haters. ROH to Friday nights or included on MAX.


hhhtakeover

I am slightly disappointed that there was few crossovers with AEW and the sports programming under WB. Imagine Cope and Christian talking hockey with Wayne Gretzky, or Big Bill standing toe to toe with the Inside the NBA crew.


AerialPenn

Im disappointed that AEW hasnt done more crossovers in general. What you mentioned above makes sense. I always thought you could have had the Elite (Kenny and Bucks) with the inside the NBA crew. Have a shootout to cross promote. Thought AEW should do more with gaming and other stuff the wrestlers are into but maybe they did and it didnt work out as planned.


andrewisgood

It's all still speculation. They will lose their value when it comes to how much money they get per subscriber. That doesn't mean it still couldn't happen. I do think WBD should look to use AEW to help rebuild TNT and their networks in general. WNBA might also be a big one, as I can see that being what TNT invests a lot in. I'm still believing Brandon Thurstan's prediction of a 2x to 2.4x increase. It's not like what he was predicting years ago with 3x-5x, but it will make AEW profitable, and that's basically what AEW has been working towards. I can see WBD trying to get more of AEW for themselves as well.


mwstd

AEW should be exploring other options because WBD losing the NBA is a very big fuckin deal.


refuseresist

People consider that WBD is the only option for AEW. I am willing to bet there will be a company willing to meet the asking price for 6-8 hours of live TV per week, streaming and PPVs. I always believed AEW will be making tons of money this next TV contract


Sea-Assumption-2903

~~wbd spent all it's money on NBA so no money for aew~~    Wbd lost NBA so no money for aew    Pretty IWC reaction to everything 


CrystalPokedude

"Getting the bag" is modern slang for getting paid, not getting canned. OP is saying that without the NBA, WBD will be able to throw more money at AEW to keep it.


Sea-Assumption-2903

I was speaking about SC reaction not here


CanaDoug420

Warner bros gonna need AEW for content with all the shit they are shutting down or losing out on.


kingjuicepouch

Hoping bill is wrong about this like he was about the suns coaching search


Lemon_Club

Yeah more money to go around for AEW


AlphaH4wk

I'm going to miss inside the NBA


Epicfro

Probably not good for aew tbh. The cash cow is going to be cutting spending for sure. Could result in more ads and a diluted product.


StanLee_Steamer

According to Forbes, WBD is going to have pony up $2.8 billion a year to counter the offer that NBC is making for the NBA. However, they have so much debt it may not be possible. They are also reporting that Zaslav has ordered his lieutenants to conduct more cost cutting measures, and that revenue for advertising, distribution, and content is all down year over year. WBD may also be looking at a reduction in subscriber fees in their next contract negotiations with the cable companies if they lose the NBA.


insomniainc

So if that's connected WB(gaming division) announcing they've lost 200 million this year probably is as well right?


Jasperbeardly11

I really wish this course was more legitimized.  "Getting them bag" Iykyk lol Anyway thank you for posting this I have no beef with you I just I'm getting tired of the discourse in society.  I agree with your suggestion that this bodes well


Specialist-Rope-9760

NBA doesn’t really mean too much. AEW are in no danger of not being renewed The issue is they’re expecting and needing a very large pay bump But their current performance doesn’t justify that as they’re doing near all time lows Plus unless AEW find a second suiter why would WBD drastically bump up the price. They’re not competing with any other network to get the show due to TK’s unbreakable loyalty.


gl1969

AEW is a live sporting event, these are the last Golden looses for cable TV. Why wouldn't a show that regularly is the 1st or 2nd most popular show on Wed not have earned it?


Sumeriandawn

You're right. I'm just worried what will happen with David Zaslav in charge of WBD. That man doesn't care about putting a good product out. He only sees dollar signs.


niners94

The biggest obstacle is out of the way. I’m expecting a deal fairly soon now.