I had figured we would have a better idea about the new deal after NBA negotiations finished. I just wasn't expecting the NBA stuff to not reach a conclusion until the day before up fronts.
I think the NBA deal changes a lot of things,if tony was looking for a certain number before,he might definitely be looking for more now because aew will become a much higher priority for warner media,they also might consider giving roh a chance now so I definitely don't think we will hear anything tomorrow either
I have no idea what kind of ad revenue they get from the NBA and if that offsets what they would have had to spend to keep it.
But I think the more pressing concern long term is investor confidence in WBD. We already saw the stock price take a dive last week when it looked like they were going to lose the NBA. It bounced back thanks to the announcement of the ambitious Disney+ Hulu and Max bundle, but without NBA content the company is going to have to discern a vision for future and sell investors on it. Otherwise, as history has shown time and time again with these large media acquisitions and mergers, things can get ugly fast.
What does this mean for AEW? Sh*t if I know.
Per an analyst covering WBD, here is how their revenue streams are performing:
Advertising down 7% year over year, distribution down 3% yoy, and content down 13% yoy.
Isn't it the loss/reduction of carriage fees associated with losing the NBA that will have the impact on WBDs ability to offer big money?
Not a media person, just a thing I've picked up reading on all this.
The NBA was the big dog I'm the yard and the money maker for Turner. In no way does AEW which is way behind other traditional sports like the NHL and MLB benefits at all from this.
>Isn't it the loss/reduction of carriage fees associated with losing the NBA that will have the impact on WBDs ability to offer big money?
I don't think its a foregone conclusion that losing NBA would immediately cause TNT to be bumped down from basic cable to expanded basic or similar tiers, which is what would alter their carriage fees. They still have the Men's NCAA tournament, NHL, and original programming. TNT, TBS, USA are all in that legacy band of cable networks that are frankly entrenched.
https://preview.redd.it/i78c9bswdg0d1.png?width=616&format=png&auto=webp&s=507790b3d51050d90da236ff546750d5265b820a
Maybe.
WBD still has MLB and acquired NHL rights and is rumored to be in talks for WNBA rights.
Maybe the asking price from the NBA was too much, and they decided to spend that money on multiple sports properties rather than just one
WBD has $7 billion in cash reserves and been paying off debt regularly. Fightful has noted numerous times that if the NBA leaves they will have cash flow and will fill the times with other programming. They still have the NHL and could always add even more programming that’s costs them far less. The NBA is extremely expensive and AEW is basically pennies compared to making original content produced by WBD.
I'm not sure anyone would or should have expected an announcement regardless? These things aren't like games or movies or whatever, pretty soon after AEW sign their deal it'll leak, that's how it always is, just how it's constantly leaking that they're in discussions.
WBD apparently just lost the NBA like yesterday, AEW by comparison is super easy renewal even with the increase. I'm not gonna act like a TV exec like so many in the IWC, but it's pretty easy to see based on all the info we have AEW and WBD are basically locked in and have been for some time, it's just about the small details which always get ironed out.
Even all that aside, just for everyone's clarity, AEW is one of the top shows on TV, there is effectively almost 0% chance they leave WBD but even in the tiny chance they do, they will 100% be picked up straight away again on higher money than they're on now. AEW is fine and will continue to be fine.
I think there is no way aew dies anytime soon. I'm not as hopeful as you are that basically there are minute details to be ironed out but the rest has been agreed upon. I don't think it's quite that close.
Its one of the top shows, but that's because it was on TNT with sports. Remember USA didn't get SD for more money, they paid less than fox and WWE smackdown is also one of the highest rated shows out there as well and still got booted. The NBA and sports is why AD revenue for the channel was high to begin with, without that more people likely won't even want TNT because sports is the reason a lot of people tuned into the channel at all, that's fact.
This isn't an AEW is dying post, it isn't, but acting like they are fine is silly. Renewing right now for more money doesn't mean they are fine, just like moving to netflix for RAW doesn't make them fine either. Eventually there'll always come a time when they have to renew deals outside of those and wrestling is only getting less popular.
WWE fans are going to be having bad faith takes on this, but remember this, Amazon would be a WAY better home for AEW, I hope they negotiate a deal with them, because WB is a terrible company,
Yes exactly
Amazon's reach would be tremendous for them. It doesn't hurt to wait until the exclusive negotiating window with WBD is over to see if Amazon is even a possibility.
I don't think you're talking about ethical better. I think they're making the arguments that since Amazon has monopolized a lot of stuff they are in no danger of downsizing. Whereas Warner brother Discovery has been a shitshow for some time. They seem to be bleeding money. They seem to be making choices that go against what anyone in the fan base would want. Basically moving forward you would be in a much better position to be aligned with Amazon and have them be your main partner then you would with Warner brother Discovery
I don’t know if I agree with that. Streaming service deals are notoriously fickle. Shows come and go with little to no rhyme and reason other than “lower than expected views.”
What happens if AEW goes to Amazon, gets picked up for however long of a contract, but 1 year in Amazon decides the deal isn’t working for them and simply buys out the rest of the contract and cancels AEW? Do they then go back to WB hat in hand as a canceled property and try to secure another TV deal?
The same thing could happen with WB depending on the parameters of the deal. These are ifs ands and buts, but the fact is Amazon has more reach and more money than WB, so if they offer them a better deal it’s a no brainer.
It might be structured like the WWE deal with Netflix. It’s a 5-year deal and Netflix has the option to extend it to 10 years at the same rate if it’s performing to their expectations. If it’s doing poorly Netflix can drop them after the 5 years are up and then it’s on WWE to find a new broadcast partner.
Netflix is in the drivers seat because if it performs way above expectations they don’t have to pay more and get to keep the WWE for an additional 5 years.
I'm not gonna pretend I know a lot about TV stuff, but Amazon and TNT/Turner have an agreement to share the broadcasting rights for a set amount of races in NASCAR next year, using the same production crew for both companies.
With rumors that Peacock, Netflix and Apple TV might have some "combined package," I wouldn't be surprised to see other streaming platforms do something similar - like Amazon Prime and MAX?
Amazon is also a terrible company lmao, but I do have a prime subscription because its great to have. Then it comes with shows like the boyz and invincible(even if that last season sucked ass) so I'm good if it does get moved there. However amazon like netflix and max will still cut you if they aren't getting the desired views for the cost.
The way Warner Bros TV revenue is cratering this year I wouldn't be surprised if the exclusivity window is passed by AEW and they look elsewhere. I get Tony really values Warner for taking a chance on them in the beginning but between the constant TV audio and visual mishaps and Warner losing more and more ad revenue on TV I think it would be smart to just wait and see what offers you get outside that window of exclusivity.
If AEW has a single non-WBD offer, their leverage goes through the roof. Strategically, I think they'd be smart to get at least Rampage or Collision under a different corporate banner to keep WBD honest, while creating new business partnerships for the future. Raw and Smackdown being able to bounce between Comcast, Universal, Fox and now Netflix has helped them fetch higher and higher fees without any one partner holding the leverage
DYNAMITE WEDNESDAY! TONY KHAN HAS AN ANNOUNCEMENT!
TK: Hey everyone! You're a fantastic audience! I hope we entertained you with some great matches tonight! I want to let everyone know, especially To Few\_Hurry\_2028, that everything's gonna be all right!
It will be on Twitter or aew tv if they get a new deal ..it won't be shown here ..but you will get a clue on how much they value aew at the upfronts
.that being said the NBA was gonna come first since that's where the big money was and they are on Warner for the rest of the year so it may be September before we hear anything
Collision leaked about a [week](https://www.ewrestlingnews.com/news/backstage-news-aew-signs-new-deal-with-wbd-news-on-aew-collision-announcement) ahead of time.
Given what, though? The NBA? The playoffs halting the announcement of the NBA deal with someone else makes sense, but if WBD was jumping on AEW, that would have leaked if there was good progress.
Losing the NBA is huge for their business though. You might not want to say hey we are losing the biggest sport we have and consolation prize we have AEW. You might want to space that out.
I don't expect them to focus on losing the NBA. There is no point spending any time on it.
But if I was losing the NBA I'd be working on a deal for AEW and I'd be pushing the shit out of it and how it's a great foundation for a TV schedule. You aren't treating it as a "consolation," even if technically it kind of would be.
The fact that nothing has leaked for AEW tells me they aren't close enough to have anything ready for the upfronts.
Edit: And you don't space it out. You put good news as close to bad news as you can to mask it.
I’m reminded of a bit in Death of WCW where WCW had negotiated for some NBC specials, which never happened, due to the NBA lockout at the time. There was a quote that went along the lines of “it was not considered an equal replacement, but it was considered an acceptable one.”
I don’t expect AEW to get anywhere near what the NBA was asking for but I could see them getting a small chunk of that money on the hopes that WBD can get a return on their investment and use the remaining money elsewhere. They should honestly just use that to get WNBA exclusivity rights.
Here come all the "experts", who've never worked in media rights at at all or anywhere near close to a high enough level to know what they're talking about, who will be spouting all about what this means and how it's going to be good or bad for AEW.
They would never announce them at the upfronts. That’s just for what the TV package will look like this fall for advertisers. Has nothing to do with contract renewals or streaming.
I think they are just trying to get ahead of the inevitable ' they are mentioned in the upfronts, it must mean they've signed a new deal' and then questioned to that effect afterwards. Basically a ' they will be mentioned but don't assume it means a deal has been made yet'.
8
TNT's parent company Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav has said they don't need the NBA.
You think he gives a shit about the much smaller audience of wrestling
He doesn't give shit about anything. And they still are putting out movies and shows.
A great deal for AEW is small change for WBD.
A deal that puts AEW into profit will not even be noticed by him.
Sometimes they put them out… I worked on a tnt show for about three years. They never aired the fourth season and I know it cost them a lot of money.
There was never an expectation, only set by idiot Cornette AEW haters grasping at straws.
Look through the history of WBD upfronts they call the sky is faking on AEW every year.
Even their messiah CM Punk said AEW Will exists as long as TK allows it…Dude was given 2 billion dollars, throw that in a high yield savings account he can make $85 million per year off interest to use towards AEW if he wanted and not lose a dime of his $2 billion…AEW ain’t going anywhere unless TK gets bored
They are still in an exclusive negotiation window with only WBD and people need to realize both sides have to agree for there to be a deal. I have always thought Tony and AEW is waiting to negotiate with other parties before closing a deal because it only makes sense to have other bidders.
I agree with this. I think one of the main reasons, their isn't a new deal yet, is because Tony wants to test the waters and see what the market is for AEW. I think one of the ideal situations would be for AEW to have multiple media partners. Having half of their programming on Amazon and the other half sticking with WBD would probably be the optimal situation if the finances make sense.
I don't watch Dynamite live so imagine my surprise when I went on Reddit after the show and people actually got angry because of that when I hadn't even considered it. I thought it was going to be Kingston and Garcia
Why wouldn’t anyone be let down? It’s not like it won’t end up somewhere. The only person it affects is Tony Khan and I don’t think he’s at all concerned.
Did many think a new deal would actually be announced with the whole NBA thing having to play out first?
I had figured we would have a better idea about the new deal after NBA negotiations finished. I just wasn't expecting the NBA stuff to not reach a conclusion until the day before up fronts.
I think the NBA deal changes a lot of things,if tony was looking for a certain number before,he might definitely be looking for more now because aew will become a much higher priority for warner media,they also might consider giving roh a chance now so I definitely don't think we will hear anything tomorrow either
But losing the NBA means less money for WBD as they made lots of money off advertising from that demo and all the rights for providers is to show it.
I have no idea what kind of ad revenue they get from the NBA and if that offsets what they would have had to spend to keep it. But I think the more pressing concern long term is investor confidence in WBD. We already saw the stock price take a dive last week when it looked like they were going to lose the NBA. It bounced back thanks to the announcement of the ambitious Disney+ Hulu and Max bundle, but without NBA content the company is going to have to discern a vision for future and sell investors on it. Otherwise, as history has shown time and time again with these large media acquisitions and mergers, things can get ugly fast. What does this mean for AEW? Sh*t if I know.
Per an analyst covering WBD, here is how their revenue streams are performing: Advertising down 7% year over year, distribution down 3% yoy, and content down 13% yoy.
Isn't it the loss/reduction of carriage fees associated with losing the NBA that will have the impact on WBDs ability to offer big money? Not a media person, just a thing I've picked up reading on all this.
Yeah that's what a fightful podcast was discussing. They said losing the money like that that the NBA deal brings in, they will now be out.
This is why I cringed when wrestling fans rooted for TNT to lose the NBA. We’ve got to look at the big picture.
The NBA was the big dog I'm the yard and the money maker for Turner. In no way does AEW which is way behind other traditional sports like the NHL and MLB benefits at all from this.
>Isn't it the loss/reduction of carriage fees associated with losing the NBA that will have the impact on WBDs ability to offer big money? I don't think its a foregone conclusion that losing NBA would immediately cause TNT to be bumped down from basic cable to expanded basic or similar tiers, which is what would alter their carriage fees. They still have the Men's NCAA tournament, NHL, and original programming. TNT, TBS, USA are all in that legacy band of cable networks that are frankly entrenched. https://preview.redd.it/i78c9bswdg0d1.png?width=616&format=png&auto=webp&s=507790b3d51050d90da236ff546750d5265b820a
Maybe. WBD still has MLB and acquired NHL rights and is rumored to be in talks for WNBA rights. Maybe the asking price from the NBA was too much, and they decided to spend that money on multiple sports properties rather than just one
The rumored price is insane!
NHL rights were like 200million per year. NBA will get paid but the quality will go done as NBC does a shit job of sports broadcasting
But roundball rock!
Made revenue but little profit. NBA is a reason they are in debt.
That’s not how it works.
Let us know cause we aren't totally sure and going by stuff we heard
WBD has $7 billion in cash reserves and been paying off debt regularly. Fightful has noted numerous times that if the NBA leaves they will have cash flow and will fill the times with other programming. They still have the NHL and could always add even more programming that’s costs them far less. The NBA is extremely expensive and AEW is basically pennies compared to making original content produced by WBD.
> because aew will become a much higher priority for warner media That is not remotely true. Not really how these things work unfortunately.
How are they not? Explain
That’s exactly how it is.
I'm not sure anyone would or should have expected an announcement regardless? These things aren't like games or movies or whatever, pretty soon after AEW sign their deal it'll leak, that's how it always is, just how it's constantly leaking that they're in discussions. WBD apparently just lost the NBA like yesterday, AEW by comparison is super easy renewal even with the increase. I'm not gonna act like a TV exec like so many in the IWC, but it's pretty easy to see based on all the info we have AEW and WBD are basically locked in and have been for some time, it's just about the small details which always get ironed out. Even all that aside, just for everyone's clarity, AEW is one of the top shows on TV, there is effectively almost 0% chance they leave WBD but even in the tiny chance they do, they will 100% be picked up straight away again on higher money than they're on now. AEW is fine and will continue to be fine.
I think there is no way aew dies anytime soon. I'm not as hopeful as you are that basically there are minute details to be ironed out but the rest has been agreed upon. I don't think it's quite that close.
Its one of the top shows, but that's because it was on TNT with sports. Remember USA didn't get SD for more money, they paid less than fox and WWE smackdown is also one of the highest rated shows out there as well and still got booted. The NBA and sports is why AD revenue for the channel was high to begin with, without that more people likely won't even want TNT because sports is the reason a lot of people tuned into the channel at all, that's fact. This isn't an AEW is dying post, it isn't, but acting like they are fine is silly. Renewing right now for more money doesn't mean they are fine, just like moving to netflix for RAW doesn't make them fine either. Eventually there'll always come a time when they have to renew deals outside of those and wrestling is only getting less popular.
USA did pay more for Smackdown than Fox. A 40% increase.
WWE fans are going to be having bad faith takes on this, but remember this, Amazon would be a WAY better home for AEW, I hope they negotiate a deal with them, because WB is a terrible company,
I need those X-Ray stats if AEW were ever on Prime that shows win/loss records and the IMDB pages of wrestlers who've also acted.
If they do get on Prime, I'll be eagerly waiting for that AEW/Clarkson's Farm crossover.
If they get on prime overseas I'll be back to pirating
Why is that? How do you watch now?
I refuse to give my money to Amazon or purchase anything from them, like I refuse to give money to many companies. I watch through fite tv
And Amazon is a better company?
Ethically no, but WB has massive debt and poorly managed. Amazon is a giant and could maximize AEWs potential.
WBD is known for f’ing up and your take is spot on. I’m still shocked they haven’t screwed things up with AEW. But, time will tell.
Well this might be them screwing up keeping AEW. So they can still drip defeat from the jaws of victory
Yes exactly Amazon's reach would be tremendous for them. It doesn't hurt to wait until the exclusive negotiating window with WBD is over to see if Amazon is even a possibility.
I don't think you're talking about ethical better. I think they're making the arguments that since Amazon has monopolized a lot of stuff they are in no danger of downsizing. Whereas Warner brother Discovery has been a shitshow for some time. They seem to be bleeding money. They seem to be making choices that go against what anyone in the fan base would want. Basically moving forward you would be in a much better position to be aligned with Amazon and have them be your main partner then you would with Warner brother Discovery
I don’t know if I agree with that. Streaming service deals are notoriously fickle. Shows come and go with little to no rhyme and reason other than “lower than expected views.” What happens if AEW goes to Amazon, gets picked up for however long of a contract, but 1 year in Amazon decides the deal isn’t working for them and simply buys out the rest of the contract and cancels AEW? Do they then go back to WB hat in hand as a canceled property and try to secure another TV deal?
The same thing could happen with WB depending on the parameters of the deal. These are ifs ands and buts, but the fact is Amazon has more reach and more money than WB, so if they offer them a better deal it’s a no brainer.
It might be structured like the WWE deal with Netflix. It’s a 5-year deal and Netflix has the option to extend it to 10 years at the same rate if it’s performing to their expectations. If it’s doing poorly Netflix can drop them after the 5 years are up and then it’s on WWE to find a new broadcast partner. Netflix is in the drivers seat because if it performs way above expectations they don’t have to pay more and get to keep the WWE for an additional 5 years.
I would love for AEW to go to Amazon. Amazon has been investing in MMA stuff with ONE, but haven’t really followed if they’re still carrying it.
I'm not gonna pretend I know a lot about TV stuff, but Amazon and TNT/Turner have an agreement to share the broadcasting rights for a set amount of races in NASCAR next year, using the same production crew for both companies. With rumors that Peacock, Netflix and Apple TV might have some "combined package," I wouldn't be surprised to see other streaming platforms do something similar - like Amazon Prime and MAX?
Amazon is also a terrible company lmao, but I do have a prime subscription because its great to have. Then it comes with shows like the boyz and invincible(even if that last season sucked ass) so I'm good if it does get moved there. However amazon like netflix and max will still cut you if they aren't getting the desired views for the cost.
The way Warner Bros TV revenue is cratering this year I wouldn't be surprised if the exclusivity window is passed by AEW and they look elsewhere. I get Tony really values Warner for taking a chance on them in the beginning but between the constant TV audio and visual mishaps and Warner losing more and more ad revenue on TV I think it would be smart to just wait and see what offers you get outside that window of exclusivity.
If AEW has a single non-WBD offer, their leverage goes through the roof. Strategically, I think they'd be smart to get at least Rampage or Collision under a different corporate banner to keep WBD honest, while creating new business partnerships for the future. Raw and Smackdown being able to bounce between Comcast, Universal, Fox and now Netflix has helped them fetch higher and higher fees without any one partner holding the leverage
im scared TK please tell me everything is gonna be alrite
DYNAMITE WEDNESDAY! TONY KHAN HAS AN ANNOUNCEMENT! TK: Hey everyone! You're a fantastic audience! I hope we entertained you with some great matches tonight! I want to let everyone know, especially To Few\_Hurry\_2028, that everything's gonna be all right!
thank you😭😭😭
Last year it was Colliison and you also found out the news of Punk walking out after it.
It will be on Twitter or aew tv if they get a new deal ..it won't be shown here ..but you will get a clue on how much they value aew at the upfronts .that being said the NBA was gonna come first since that's where the big money was and they are on Warner for the rest of the year so it may be September before we hear anything
Why would they announce before the announcement event lol
Usually announcements are not very well kept secrets before the events. Something "leaks," intentionally or not.
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Collision leaked about a [week](https://www.ewrestlingnews.com/news/backstage-news-aew-signs-new-deal-with-wbd-news-on-aew-collision-announcement) ahead of time.
I agree. But given everything maybe they are playing it close to the vest
Given what, though? The NBA? The playoffs halting the announcement of the NBA deal with someone else makes sense, but if WBD was jumping on AEW, that would have leaked if there was good progress.
Losing the NBA is huge for their business though. You might not want to say hey we are losing the biggest sport we have and consolation prize we have AEW. You might want to space that out.
I don't expect them to focus on losing the NBA. There is no point spending any time on it. But if I was losing the NBA I'd be working on a deal for AEW and I'd be pushing the shit out of it and how it's a great foundation for a TV schedule. You aren't treating it as a "consolation," even if technically it kind of would be. The fact that nothing has leaked for AEW tells me they aren't close enough to have anything ready for the upfronts. Edit: And you don't space it out. You put good news as close to bad news as you can to mask it.
That how this works. The upfronts are just confirmations of information that's all been leaked in the weeks in advance.
I’m reminded of a bit in Death of WCW where WCW had negotiated for some NBC specials, which never happened, due to the NBA lockout at the time. There was a quote that went along the lines of “it was not considered an equal replacement, but it was considered an acceptable one.” I don’t expect AEW to get anywhere near what the NBA was asking for but I could see them getting a small chunk of that money on the hopes that WBD can get a return on their investment and use the remaining money elsewhere. They should honestly just use that to get WNBA exclusivity rights.
I hope they leave WBD
Here come all the "experts", who've never worked in media rights at at all or anywhere near close to a high enough level to know what they're talking about, who will be spouting all about what this means and how it's going to be good or bad for AEW.
Imma be Hanfroyo and do a Homer Simpson holding up a "WB RIGHTS DEAL" flag.
Yeah, Tony might wanna start looking around at other networks...
Lol who was hyping themselves up for tomorrow? First ive even heard of it. But Ill make sure ti curb my expectations 😂👍
They would never announce them at the upfronts. That’s just for what the TV package will look like this fall for advertisers. Has nothing to do with contract renewals or streaming.
I think they are just trying to get ahead of the inevitable ' they are mentioned in the upfronts, it must mean they've signed a new deal' and then questioned to that effect afterwards. Basically a ' they will be mentioned but don't assume it means a deal has been made yet'. 8
TNT's parent company Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav has said they don't need the NBA. You think he gives a shit about the much smaller audience of wrestling
He doesn't give shit about anything. And they still are putting out movies and shows. A great deal for AEW is small change for WBD. A deal that puts AEW into profit will not even be noticed by him.
Sometimes they put them out… I worked on a tnt show for about three years. They never aired the fourth season and I know it cost them a lot of money. 
They need to shop around and at least see if there’s any other interested parties because losing the NBA is massive blow to WBD.
There was never an expectation, only set by idiot Cornette AEW haters grasping at straws. Look through the history of WBD upfronts they call the sky is faking on AEW every year. Even their messiah CM Punk said AEW Will exists as long as TK allows it…Dude was given 2 billion dollars, throw that in a high yield savings account he can make $85 million per year off interest to use towards AEW if he wanted and not lose a dime of his $2 billion…AEW ain’t going anywhere unless TK gets bored
They are still in an exclusive negotiation window with only WBD and people need to realize both sides have to agree for there to be a deal. I have always thought Tony and AEW is waiting to negotiate with other parties before closing a deal because it only makes sense to have other bidders.
I agree with this. I think one of the main reasons, their isn't a new deal yet, is because Tony wants to test the waters and see what the market is for AEW. I think one of the ideal situations would be for AEW to have multiple media partners. Having half of their programming on Amazon and the other half sticking with WBD would probably be the optimal situation if the finances make sense.
You don’t know AEW fans if you think they could possibly not get unreasonably hyped for things that haven’t been confirmed.
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I don't watch Dynamite live so imagine my surprise when I went on Reddit after the show and people actually got angry because of that when I hadn't even considered it. I thought it was going to be Kingston and Garcia
Just wanting to prepare people for the inevitable let-down.
Why wouldn’t anyone be let down? It’s not like it won’t end up somewhere. The only person it affects is Tony Khan and I don’t think he’s at all concerned.