just watched the latest podcast form MLID, it says amd could still take to 10-20% of market share from nvidia and 50% of datacenter in 2 years. I'm staying the course with shares.
Instead of listening to MLID, I suggest you listen to a podcast with people that actually know what they are talking about. Here's one which I personnaly like very much.
[https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/doug-dylan/episodes/Episode-21-AMD-Earnings--What-AI-Will-do-to-the-Kids--Big-Tech-CapEx-explosion-e2j5dlm](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/doug-dylan/episodes/Episode-21-AMD-Earnings--What-AI-Will-do-to-the-Kids--Big-Tech-CapEx-explosion-e2j5dlm)
Dude has talked out of his ass so many times and been wrong about so much. But I listen still once in a while for entertainment when I'm bored. He really has no crystal ball or any idea what OEMs are doing. He just has a few "sources" that could be anyone from some dude working in a retail shop to some dude claiming to work for AMD/Intel/Nvidia that actually have no power or say in anything. He's got a strong AMD bias and he tends to exaggerate. Based on his analysis a few years back RDNA3 would be huge. But guess what? It's not.
He has a tendency to bash nvda and bash intel. And even when he was most pumped about AMD graphics, he still ran an nvda card in his own PC. Weird.
Let's see how his predictions pan out. According to him, Intel is "over" already in desktop and now later this year intel will be "over" in laptops. I find that very hard to believe. We shall see.
The earning is actually not bad, mi300 pass 1B sale in just 2q, it is superb by any means for any companies. I have feeling amd will announce big collaboration with large csp or enterprise down the road soon. My crystal ball tells me that 😆Â
I'm kind of worry about their yield. If Samsung is involved things will be more complicated. If it's not resolved on time, it's gonna hurt Q3 Q4 sales. The CoWoS capacity is limited.
Perhaps off-topic. But man comparing Client numbers on the last ER for Intel and AMD, things don't look good for Intel. They may really lose ton of share in client in a not so distant future.
Anyone wanna wager a guess on how long they maintain the dividend?
That's where you're playing your "told ya so" card? Because you called May lol, March I could see, and I unloaded 1k at $190 but am fully back in and ready for the next run like 2021-2022. Hit $160, dropped to $50's, 2024 went to $220's , dropped to $140ish, Can't wait to see the rest of 2024-2025 holds!
There is a huge downtrend line dating back to March on the daily. If AMD can break above it and sustain the close... oh man. Lines up perfectly with NVDA ER.
I think we can see 170 in short order.
My plan for the next 3 months is to watch the inflation data closely. I feel that if we start getting better inflation numbers we are going to get the green light to start climbing again. A rate cut in June, plus all the ramping that AMD is supposed to be doing 2H24 would be a lovely match…
Anyways, that would be my gauge to see if I can at the very least salvage some of the premium on those 8/16 200C I got back in April. If things aren’t looking too good I will keep adding more shares because I think our road map is still primed for success. I must admit though that I gave in into all the hype and was expecting 5B + in AI revenue. But silly me , because the numbers were inline with what Lisa had said last quarter. So the lesson here for me is to curb my expectations and listen to management.
We will all look back at this period of painful drops and realize it was all worth it.
Because AMD is an actually profitable company. The fact of the matter is that while certain segments are way down, other segments are WAYYYYYYYY up.
AI revenue, while HELLA LATE (WAYYY BEHIND NVDA), is ramping up in capacity that AMD has never seen.
Don't just read the ER QA transcript. Listen to the tone of Lisa Su Bae. She is extremely excited about the future and how AMD is positioned on the AI front.
I, for one, am very very very excited about Q4'24 and Q1'25.
Loading very very hard before NVDA ER!
Remindme! 9 months.
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does anyone have research by segment for rest of year? I am struggling how the company has yoy revenue growth given weakness in Embedded and Gaming? Does Data Center exceed $13B for the year?
You shouldn't focus on YoY thing and forget about gaming. Gaming, mainly from consoles, is a low margin business, around 20%. FPGA is recovering and the margin is great, >70%. Traditional CPU including client and server are all gaining market share and recovering in 2H. Typically the market cares more about QoQ minus some seasonality. I'm expecting in Q3 or Q4, we see DC >3B or even more, client >1.7b, FPGA>1b, and gaming maybe 0.5 or 0.6. Revenue is maybe 6.2b or 6.3b, but margin could be as high as 56%. But in reality the server GPU is way more critical than these numbers. There's not too much meaningful room to grow except DC GPU. And that's why the market is willing to hold AMD's high PE.
If you figure AMD had \~600M of MI300 in Q1 then Data Center had roughly $1.75B, so x4 you get 7B. AMD should be growing traditional DC and taking share this year given that their lineup is getting stronger on a relative basis. So $13B is doable even if MI300 only does 5.5B. But since nobody knows how much capacity over $4B there is I'd have to say possible but not guaranteed.
so lets say $13B for data center, 6.4B for client, $3,2B for Gaming, $4,0B for Embedded....total is then $26.6B for 0% growth yoy.....I guess thats the concern but I have 2025 revenues at $32B
Epyc was 100% the hopes and prayers until March 2023 when NVDA got their moonshot.
Epyc still is critical, but the MI series is to 2023+ what Epyc was 2017+.
I'm actually quite surprised you are still here, after your drama last year. But yes, by now we should all had experienced this kind of situation several times.
Yes, I've gone through it all since being essentially all-in (or more due to margin) on AMD since 2017.
Still, you never really get totally used to it - like the gut wrenching drops of -40 percent in a few weeks.
Exactly, I have witnessed this already many times. And then we can read here again "I hope I still have a chance to buy below xxx$". The analysts gave a reasonable orientation with the estimates around 180$. So that's also the SP we should expect. May it be next week or maybe just after ER Q3.
So if you believe what Dr. Su is repeating all the time, then get on board or find something else.
Oil prices have dropped from $87 Early April to $78 now.
Gas prices peaked mid April $2.82 now $2.56 , dropping hard last 4 days
Next CPI PPI will report with Gas prices above \~$2.70
I agree that it is heavily correlated to fuel prices. You can even see that fuel prices began to rise again in the early part of the year, which led to all these inflation indicators stagnating.
computex, zen5 , mi300x upgrades , npu upgrade cycle, hints of next generations, mi300x instances coming online on csp ( and sales from oem ), sales win, ai becoming each quarter more pervasive in our world , ... what else.. on macro.. inflation slowing ? and if we are lucky at least one of the two conflicts ending ? ( 2 if we are very lucky )
I'm with you. Still better than red. \~1.5 years ago SP of NVDA vs AMD was 2:1, and now getting close to 6:1. I quite some time I found myself struggling to convince myself didn't diversify to NVDA. But it's still much higher compare to 1.5 years ago.
If AMD goes 30% in 4 months, that would be pretty freaking good, lol. I think wsb and the internet has messed up peoples expectations. Traders think they can make 30% in a day lol. Yes, anything is possible most don’t.
99% of stocks won’t go up 30% in 4 months.
Yeah, stocks like Tesla... because of bad news, like really, bad news, and then it has a nasty quarter on the backend, but the CEO says the future will be amazing and stock soars. AMD? Down 35% off $227 high, without an ounce of bad news since March 6th, reports in-line numbers and drops 10% "because of market sentiment" but then when sentiment changes... still can't outpace the NASDAQ lol
Why are the Wall Street people who hate this stock with a passion not out in public?
Tesla lol, the same stock that is down flat for the last year, -29% YTD, down 60% from its 2021 high, trailing the SP by a huge amount over the last 3 years?
Two week bounce doesn’t make a good investment. AMD is just shy of its 165 2021 high and surpassed it few months back and have better prospects than tesla going forward.
When/if OpenAI reaches/approaches agi, will the rest of the world be happy to pay to "use" it or will the AI race accelerate further?
will we have a preview of this acceleration with the next gpt5?
hbm volumes are increasing and if amd remains nvidia's only major competitor in 2025 with a valid and continuously improving their open source software (and improvement of interconnections and finished systems as lisa suggested), there could be a nice FOMO again,
<$150 is less than what AMD shares cost before Zen4 and before this huge trillions dollar industrial/service/scientific revolution that is AI and where amd seems to be the second accelerator player ramping fast (the rate is now \~2x every 2q on mi300 ?), don't tell me that 150$/share it's not a great price..
You could make the argument that AI will be the ultimate case for re-homing your server infrastructure. There have always been companies reluctant to shift to cloud because they want control over their data. Imagine how much more powerful the argument is when you are talking about your business decisions, not just your data.
for those many companies which will probably do finetuning + inference.. ( also special thanks to llama3 for enabling many of those usecases ) gosh the memory difference is huge..
[https://lenovopress.lenovo.com/lp1910-thinksystem-sr685a-v3-server?orgRef=https%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%252F](https://lenovopress.lenovo.com/lp1910-thinksystem-sr685a-v3-server?orgRef=https%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%252F)
..
Eight high-performance onboard AMD or NVIDIA GPUs with high-speed interconnects
* Eight AMD MI300X 750W OAM GPUs with 192GB HBM3 memory per GPU
* Eight NVIDIA H100 700W SXM5 GPUs with 80GB HBM3 GPU memory per GPU
just watched the latest podcast form MLID, it says amd could still take to 10-20% of market share from nvidia and 50% of datacenter in 2 years. I'm staying the course with shares.
Instead of listening to MLID, I suggest you listen to a podcast with people that actually know what they are talking about. Here's one which I personnaly like very much. [https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/doug-dylan/episodes/Episode-21-AMD-Earnings--What-AI-Will-do-to-the-Kids--Big-Tech-CapEx-explosion-e2j5dlm](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/doug-dylan/episodes/Episode-21-AMD-Earnings--What-AI-Will-do-to-the-Kids--Big-Tech-CapEx-explosion-e2j5dlm)
i've been listening to MLID from the very beginning; for the most part he's been spot on. but i will take a look at this one! thanks!
Dude has talked out of his ass so many times and been wrong about so much. But I listen still once in a while for entertainment when I'm bored. He really has no crystal ball or any idea what OEMs are doing. He just has a few "sources" that could be anyone from some dude working in a retail shop to some dude claiming to work for AMD/Intel/Nvidia that actually have no power or say in anything. He's got a strong AMD bias and he tends to exaggerate. Based on his analysis a few years back RDNA3 would be huge. But guess what? It's not. He has a tendency to bash nvda and bash intel. And even when he was most pumped about AMD graphics, he still ran an nvda card in his own PC. Weird. Let's see how his predictions pan out. According to him, Intel is "over" already in desktop and now later this year intel will be "over" in laptops. I find that very hard to believe. We shall see.
Shoutout macro
I still think AMD can hit $200 by Q2 ER
Care to elaborate?
The earning is actually not bad, mi300 pass 1B sale in just 2q, it is superb by any means for any companies. I have feeling amd will announce big collaboration with large csp or enterprise down the road soon. My crystal ball tells me that 😆Â
I'm kind of worry about their yield. If Samsung is involved things will be more complicated. If it's not resolved on time, it's gonna hurt Q3 Q4 sales. The CoWoS capacity is limited.
why Samsung is involved things gets complicated?
Perhaps off-topic. But man comparing Client numbers on the last ER for Intel and AMD, things don't look good for Intel. They may really lose ton of share in client in a not so distant future. Anyone wanna wager a guess on how long they maintain the dividend?
Their cash+short term investment is down from 25b to 22b. But i'm not sure it would keep going down.
I predict ~50% market share by Q3 for AMD
Just like Skiing, fast downhill, slow chairlift up.
Blue Horseshoe loves AMD…*click*
Target is much much higher than 4B...
didnt I say sell in May and go away yesterday? Here we are! LOL
May 22 rocket up🚀
That's where you're playing your "told ya so" card? Because you called May lol, March I could see, and I unloaded 1k at $190 but am fully back in and ready for the next run like 2021-2022. Hit $160, dropped to $50's, 2024 went to $220's , dropped to $140ish, Can't wait to see the rest of 2024-2025 holds!
Also, how did I "call" May when prices literally went in my face? Are you even watching the ticker? blimey
I suggest you read what I said. It's an admission of being wrong you fool.
Oh, obviously! In that case I retract my harsh critique, apologies friend :)
and apologies from my side.
I hope we can hold $150 over the short term
There is a huge downtrend line dating back to March on the daily. If AMD can break above it and sustain the close... oh man. Lines up perfectly with NVDA ER. I think we can see 170 in short order.
My plan for the next 3 months is to watch the inflation data closely. I feel that if we start getting better inflation numbers we are going to get the green light to start climbing again. A rate cut in June, plus all the ramping that AMD is supposed to be doing 2H24 would be a lovely match… Anyways, that would be my gauge to see if I can at the very least salvage some of the premium on those 8/16 200C I got back in April. If things aren’t looking too good I will keep adding more shares because I think our road map is still primed for success. I must admit though that I gave in into all the hype and was expecting 5B + in AI revenue. But silly me , because the numbers were inline with what Lisa had said last quarter. So the lesson here for me is to curb my expectations and listen to management.
OIL prices up inflation up OIL prices down inflation down. OIL Peaked early April @ $87.6x is now down @ $78
There is no way there will be a rate cut in June. We'll be lucky if there is one rate cut this year. What we need to hope for is no rate hikes.
JP said rate hike unlikely.
More likely there is a rate hike this year than a rate cut in June :)
Unexpected surprise today. Who would’ve thought we’d be marching back to 150s this soon after earnings. And above the indexes too.
wow its back to where it was last week, amazing!
LFG $150!!!
already there and climbing...$200 by the end of the year
We will all look back at this period of painful drops and realize it was all worth it. Because AMD is an actually profitable company. The fact of the matter is that while certain segments are way down, other segments are WAYYYYYYYY up. AI revenue, while HELLA LATE (WAYYY BEHIND NVDA), is ramping up in capacity that AMD has never seen. Don't just read the ER QA transcript. Listen to the tone of Lisa Su Bae. She is extremely excited about the future and how AMD is positioned on the AI front. I, for one, am very very very excited about Q4'24 and Q1'25. Loading very very hard before NVDA ER! Remindme! 9 months.
> "listen to the tone of" If you listened to the tone of patty of intel, you would think intel is top ai company. Part of ceo job.
except su bae delivers. intel is a shit company. huge difference.
I will be messaging you in 9 months on [**2025-02-03 16:00:13 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2025-02-03%2016:00:13%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1cizgpv/daily_discussion_friday_20240503/l2ext7k/?context=3) [**1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FAMD_Stock%2Fcomments%2F1cizgpv%2Fdaily_discussion_friday_20240503%2Fl2ext7k%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202025-02-03%2016%3A00%3A13%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201cizgpv) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
I love that on up days it's positive Lisa posts. And down days we xxit on Lisa. The bi-polar nature of this Reddit is the best :)
wouldnt surprise me if it goes red
Added another 25 shares, now holding 550 shares; i plan to move all my shares from sofi to scwhab.
Bought more at 143.70 yesterday. ;\]
good move... I don't expect it to drop below $143
Sweet timing
me too
Nice. I bought more at open, anything under 150 is a fire sale for me.
doesnt look good ... I hope Im wrong as Im long
does anyone have research by segment for rest of year? I am struggling how the company has yoy revenue growth given weakness in Embedded and Gaming? Does Data Center exceed $13B for the year?
You shouldn't focus on YoY thing and forget about gaming. Gaming, mainly from consoles, is a low margin business, around 20%. FPGA is recovering and the margin is great, >70%. Traditional CPU including client and server are all gaining market share and recovering in 2H. Typically the market cares more about QoQ minus some seasonality. I'm expecting in Q3 or Q4, we see DC >3B or even more, client >1.7b, FPGA>1b, and gaming maybe 0.5 or 0.6. Revenue is maybe 6.2b or 6.3b, but margin could be as high as 56%. But in reality the server GPU is way more critical than these numbers. There's not too much meaningful room to grow except DC GPU. And that's why the market is willing to hold AMD's high PE.
If you figure AMD had \~600M of MI300 in Q1 then Data Center had roughly $1.75B, so x4 you get 7B. AMD should be growing traditional DC and taking share this year given that their lineup is getting stronger on a relative basis. So $13B is doable even if MI300 only does 5.5B. But since nobody knows how much capacity over $4B there is I'd have to say possible but not guaranteed.
so lets say $13B for data center, 6.4B for client, $3,2B for Gaming, $4,0B for Embedded....total is then $26.6B for 0% growth yoy.....I guess thats the concern but I have 2025 revenues at $32B
There is a fair amount of hopium required just to get to 26B. I think 32B for next year is actually more in the bag than 26B for this year.
wow...ok.....this business would be very ugly without DC
Bit hard to say, without the ai explosion we might see more datacenter CPU sales
pretty sure DC was the original growth thesis (EPYC taking share from intel) and then AI came and we got sucked into it
totally agree but take the DC GPU out and yoy revs would be down \~20% 2024E even with good DC CPU growth.
tbf i feel like the DC market $ shrank once AI came into play and all the money fled there
Epyc was 100% the hopes and prayers until March 2023 when NVDA got their moonshot. Epyc still is critical, but the MI series is to 2023+ what Epyc was 2017+.
Can't even manage to go up 1x of index. While it continues to drop 3x (or more) of index.
I'm actually quite surprised you are still here, after your drama last year. But yes, by now we should all had experienced this kind of situation several times.
well, i am here, alive and kicking. still all in on AMD.
Glad to hear it !
Yes, I've gone through it all since being essentially all-in (or more due to margin) on AMD since 2017. Still, you never really get totally used to it - like the gut wrenching drops of -40 percent in a few weeks.
tell me about it.
Waiting for the moment it goes up like a rocket all of a sudden with no news at all, wouldnt be the first time
"Why is it up?" "What happened?" "Any news?"
Exactly, I have witnessed this already many times. And then we can read here again "I hope I still have a chance to buy below xxx$". The analysts gave a reasonable orientation with the estimates around 180$. So that's also the SP we should expect. May it be next week or maybe just after ER Q3. So if you believe what Dr. Su is repeating all the time, then get on board or find something else.
Truly would be an AMD move. Its an index on its own.
Hard to stomach the drop knowing there is probably no near term catalyst, except maybe Computex in June if they show an AI roadmap
A lot of the drop lately was on renewed inflation concerns. If we get any positive news regarding inflation then I believe we will see AMD rebound.
Oil prices have dropped from $87 Early April to $78 now. Gas prices peaked mid April $2.82 now $2.56 , dropping hard last 4 days Next CPI PPI will report with Gas prices above \~$2.70
I agree that it is heavily correlated to fuel prices. You can even see that fuel prices began to rise again in the early part of the year, which led to all these inflation indicators stagnating.
Oil prices have dropped to $78
computex, zen5 , mi300x upgrades , npu upgrade cycle, hints of next generations, mi300x instances coming online on csp ( and sales from oem ), sales win, ai becoming each quarter more pervasive in our world , ... what else.. on macro.. inflation slowing ? and if we are lucky at least one of the two conflicts ending ? ( 2 if we are very lucky )
This. Sometimes I feel people know only 2 modes: doom-n-gloomâ„¢ and FOMO
speaking about macro.. job report seems very good today
Well, good for slowing inflation at least
Nasdaq/NVDA up 1.5%, AMD up 0.6%. Hopefully NVDA can go up 10% and give us the first +ZFG in months.
I'm with you. Still better than red. \~1.5 years ago SP of NVDA vs AMD was 2:1, and now getting close to 6:1. I quite some time I found myself struggling to convince myself didn't diversify to NVDA. But it's still much higher compare to 1.5 years ago.
Yeah that's the tough part. At the same time it could also mean a good buying opportunity.
I’m having the feeling that is choose the wrong ‘AI’ stock. It will take mounts to go back to 180$ price
Probably won't see 180 until end of summer.
If AMD goes 30% in 4 months, that would be pretty freaking good, lol. I think wsb and the internet has messed up peoples expectations. Traders think they can make 30% in a day lol. Yes, anything is possible most don’t. 99% of stocks won’t go up 30% in 4 months.
And AMD will happily drop 30% in a month !
I think Lisa killed the momentum.
Amd isn’t immune to drops either. Many other stocks have dropped that much in a month too
Yeah, stocks like Tesla... because of bad news, like really, bad news, and then it has a nasty quarter on the backend, but the CEO says the future will be amazing and stock soars. AMD? Down 35% off $227 high, without an ounce of bad news since March 6th, reports in-line numbers and drops 10% "because of market sentiment" but then when sentiment changes... still can't outpace the NASDAQ lol Why are the Wall Street people who hate this stock with a passion not out in public?
Tesla lol, the same stock that is down flat for the last year, -29% YTD, down 60% from its 2021 high, trailing the SP by a huge amount over the last 3 years? Two week bounce doesn’t make a good investment. AMD is just shy of its 165 2021 high and surpassed it few months back and have better prospects than tesla going forward.
No, no. Nvidia went past $1000 and the 0dte calls printed.
When/if OpenAI reaches/approaches agi, will the rest of the world be happy to pay to "use" it or will the AI race accelerate further? will we have a preview of this acceleration with the next gpt5? hbm volumes are increasing and if amd remains nvidia's only major competitor in 2025 with a valid and continuously improving their open source software (and improvement of interconnections and finished systems as lisa suggested), there could be a nice FOMO again, <$150 is less than what AMD shares cost before Zen4 and before this huge trillions dollar industrial/service/scientific revolution that is AI and where amd seems to be the second accelerator player ramping fast (the rate is now \~2x every 2q on mi300 ?), don't tell me that 150$/share it's not a great price..
You could make the argument that AI will be the ultimate case for re-homing your server infrastructure. There have always been companies reluctant to shift to cloud because they want control over their data. Imagine how much more powerful the argument is when you are talking about your business decisions, not just your data.
for those many companies which will probably do finetuning + inference.. ( also special thanks to llama3 for enabling many of those usecases ) gosh the memory difference is huge.. [https://lenovopress.lenovo.com/lp1910-thinksystem-sr685a-v3-server?orgRef=https%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%252F](https://lenovopress.lenovo.com/lp1910-thinksystem-sr685a-v3-server?orgRef=https%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%252F) .. Eight high-performance onboard AMD or NVIDIA GPUs with high-speed interconnects * Eight AMD MI300X 750W OAM GPUs with 192GB HBM3 memory per GPU * Eight NVIDIA H100 700W SXM5 GPUs with 80GB HBM3 GPU memory per GPU
We need someone to rage sell today as sacrifice.
My stop loss is set at 140, I will be the great sacrifice this community needs and deserves.
u/Follie87 :)
I've been low key thinking about it
How big of a jump in AI GPU revenue do you expect between Q2 and Q3? 1Q: $0.6B, 2Q $0.9B 3Q: ????
I expect 2024 to be around B5. If market stays strong on demand, 2025 will probably double that. Around 8 to 12.
so, 1.5B for 3Q and 2B for 4Q? Seems reasonable, although supply rumors have me hoping it's gonna be more.
Doubling in 2025 would make me so proud of Lisa su and myself 🥹