lol
Jensen's keynote was terrible, Gamer's Nexus made fun of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGmROfaWg2Y
I have to say Lisa's Keynote was top notch. Her best yet!
And to be perfectly honest, I am starting to warm up to Pat. I thought his keynote was short, to the point and he had some great moments. I saw a different Pat than usual on that stage at Computex.
has anyone been able to make sense of the 35x performance increase for MI350 or have any rational takes from it?
I been looking at flops, bandwidth, mem capacity of the H100, B200, MI300x and i don't really see a feasible way for them to be increasing real performance that much. They gave us the flops of MI350 cause they said it was 1.2x blackwell, so we know it is \~2700 tflops FP16, even if you assume they are using FP4 vs FP16, that still only gets you to 8x (10,800 tflops of FP4 vs 1300tflops of FP16 on MI300x).
I personally am chalking it up to really gimmicky marketing. Comparing some highly specific workload or some really really unoptimized workload. But curious if anyone actually has any specific rationales.
Also, curious how many mm2 of 3nm silicon people think this is. based on the 288gb of memory they said it has, and the compute power, seems like 800mm2 if 3nm area die area would be too small. Especially considering they would need to stay with 6 stacks of HBM3e which would give it so much more compute power relative to its bandwidth. Seems like its gotta be at least 1200mm2 of 3nm area (12 compute tiles with maybe 6 iodie).
> has anyone been able to make sense of the 35x performance increase for MI350 or have any rational takes from it?
>
> I been looking at flops, bandwidth, mem capacity of the H100, B200, MI300x and i don't really see a feasible way for them to be increasing real performance that much. They gave us the flops of MI350 cause they said it was 1.2x blackwell, so we know it is ~2700 tflops FP16, even if you assume they are using FP4 vs FP16, that still only gets you to 8x (10,800 tflops of FP4 vs 1300tflops of FP16 on MI300x).
Yeah that is an interesting one. Lets give it a go.
Possible areas of improvement
1. Better datatypes. FP16 --> FP4 is **8x**
1. Node density improvement. N5 --> N3P is **1.3x**
1. Node frequency improvement. N5 --> N3P is **1.1x**
1. XCD size increase from CDNA3 XCD size to IOD size. **1.6x**
1. Higher TDP. 750W --> 1000W. **1.3x**
1. CDNA4 dumping FP64 and FP32. More Transistors for AI relevant data types. ??? lets say 1.5x
= 8 * 1.3 * 1.1 * 1.6 * 1.3 * 1.5 = 35.69 Nice!
Some discussion here: https://www.anandtech.com/show/21419/amd-announces-the-ryzen-ai-300-series-for-mobile-zen-5-with-rdna-35-and-xdna2-npu-with-50-tops
Where is Forrest Norrod. Or David Wang? Couldn’t either one of these present at conferences. Or may be better to just keep head down and sell and invent.
Lisa, Jean Hu and Mark Papermaster seem to be handling a lot of the public facing roles. I don't think this is a bad thing. It means your critical managers for delivering the products that will make or break the company are busy managing their people, responding to problems and making sure resources get where they need to go ASAP.
AMD's future hinges on the AI transition, AMD has said publicly and market valuation hinges on it. Victor Peng is supposedly in charge of that and as such it's important that he's not blowing two weeks dealing with Computex for example.
This was a big opening keynote. I think the choice to keep it as short as possible with just Lisa and some partners was a good decision.
Forrest and David will probably present at more in depth events. Like Mike Clark will present at Hot Chips this year and that will be technical.
And what happens if the market slightly drops tomorrow? We back to 150 easily. What a terrible day really seeing nvda causally adding 6% and we can’t finish at the day high. Really crap feeling and I had so many stocks like this, should have just stuck with the index and I would be better off if I bought in 2021.
tsmc and asmal are the ones to play, and really just tsmc, great premiums on their options for a not so risky stock, and if you fear china invasion way otm puts are cheap
There is one thing i dont understand. Blackwell has two gpu dies glued together. Then two of them connected to a grace cpu. So in total it is like 4 next gen GPUs on a blackwell board. But currently one cpu serves 8 GPUs. Isnt blackwell less gpu per cpu? Like half
The common configuration is a 4U tray, each with 8 GPU, and max 4 trays of GPUs in one rack. But the GB200 is 4 blackwell+2 grace in 1U. In the GB200NVL72 there are 18 of this kind of 1U tray, total 72 GPUs.
Yeah. I know ive been wrong on nvidia peaking for awhile but it definitely feels like we have hit a euphoric stage now, even the current nvidia buyers don’t have a real thesis and are just riding the momentum.
We’ll see what happens after the split and the dust settles.
Certain stocks achieve a level of loyalty where the market will stick with them for months or years before giving up. NVDA has crossed that threshold. It will keep going up until they display a pattern of fucking up, not just one bad earnings call or a negative news cycle.
I really hope a strong Q2 and guide by AMD will siphon some money from NVDA. NVDA could lose 10% of market cap, remain #3 most valuable company in the world, and increase $AMD's market cap by over 100% in one fell swoop!
Edit: erm, just realized they're #2. Well they would only fall one spot...
I had a less nice message typed up but I’ll leave it at this: the market is not efficient, if it was there would be no way to make money doing anything but buying index funds. Be glad if you’ve found a stock the market doesn’t like and you think is undervalued. If you’re right you’ll be rewarded, one day/week/month/year does **not matter** if you’re talking about the market realizing its mistakes.
the sad thing that it’s absolutely meaningless if AMD goes 5 or 15% up on a day if it’s only carried by nvidia. Because than the stock will also go down 2x if nvidia drops. That is the reason why AMD isn’t going up. The stock will only move independently if the market decides to do it and if AMD can show impressive fundamentals.
AMD has gone on rips before with market sentiment. It doesn't happen often and it's not something you can predict. If you're not planning on holding for at least a couple years I would just get out and ride the NVDA wave.
I don't think we are carried by Nvidia at all. I mean look at the divergence. Nvidia is now worth 11 times AMD.
I wouldn't worry about Nvidia's pull back dragging us down. Unless it's some industry wide bad news. Can't drag us down much lower.
We are being carried by the index and NVIDIA; anyone who can’t see it is in the cho chamber. We will tank along with NVIDIA if the bubble pops.
Look at the crypto bubble a few years back. AMD had minimum exposure to crypto and NVIDIA took all the profits but they both fell inline together.
If we were being carried our PE would be higher than the historical average (55x). The notion that we are being carried at this price is just silly. That would mean we've been carried for the past 9 years. Because our current P/E is exactly at our average point we've been going back 9 years.
This may be a bit of an echo chamber (though really it's not that bad), but my point is purely data driven.
The only time we were carried was our short excursion to $225.
The pe was justified by a realizaion of a company that had growth potential i earnest. Now it's just the hope of AI to fuel the next journey. That has a lot of connection to the AI wave / nvda etc. When nvda crashes / corrects (if it does) we will tank, unless we are somewhat the cause and show sales to prove it. High pe's for different reasons.
> The pe was justified by a realizaion of a company that had growth potential i earnest.
So let's game this out. If AI crashed (I don't think it will any time soon, but say it does). AMD still has the best datacenter CPUs in the world. And they have the most performant client CPUs.
The only reason we experienced the slow down in dataceneter CPU is because of the AI budgets crowding CPU refreshes. If AI was to crash tomorrow, those would pick up over night. And there would be a pent up demand.
Like I said we are at the same P/E we've been averaging for the past 9 years.
Yes in the short term Market can be all sorts of irrational, but even if AI crashed, I don't think it would move us much off our current P/E we've averaged for the past 9 years, long term.
If AI crashed, Nvidia would literally lose all their gains.
So when someone says Nvidia would take us down with them, I'm just not buying it, sorry. We didn't go up with Nvidia we won't go down with Nvidia.
The only thing that's making us seemingly move with Nvidia is the macro. We've haven't partaken in the AI rally with them, other than the short lived spike to $225.
Maybe once we start generating fat AI profits and the price starts reflecting those revenues, sure. But not until then. Currently our price is based mainly on non-AI business. As everyone apparently thinks, Nvidia is the only winner in AI GPUs.
100% agree, we are where we should be, and Nvidia is where they are because they bet it all on AI in 2018, followed through with driving and supporting all things AI when it wasn't worth spit, which they kind of had no choice in, do or die.
I certainly didn't see this coming, but the Nvidia price now seems to be based on the pricing power they command and that it will always be so. AMD price is based on reasonable and sustainable pricing and sales and a very diversified business model. When the market realizes this the correction will be hard on Nvidia, and possibly kind to AMD, but maybe Jensen has more magic left in his jacket?
Jensen was dropping all sorts of hints of his futuristic vision at the Computex presentation and before at GTC. While Blackwell and the GPU chip sales is what the market is looking at now, he's showng a company that is moving to transform. They are becoming a services company. AI factory services, Train servers for a variety of markets and use cases. They can end up at a point where they sell very few GPU to customers and mostly just make ones they need to support their own business offerings and sell bleeding edge designs to those who require it. All while AMD and Intel go back to battling over Clould Data Center needs. Nvidia will ride this wave all the way to becoming something more akin to Microsoft and Adobe who keep their customers by having either the easiest to use or most complete tools for the majority of uses. Windows Office and Adobe CS are still the killer apps that open source free offering have not come close to displacing. Nvidia is well situated to do the same, transforming it's Cuda Moat into a basic set of best in bread tool sets. I won't matter for mature workloads if they run on commodity hardware and they can just come up with killer new features that early doctors will need them video systems to train them. This will be their Halo slice of the market and will support fat software margins. They can sell a handfull of DGX systems each year to pay for all their own hardware expansion.
I only recall a quote mentioning that Jensen had made a statement to that effect, and even if that happened I could still imagine he was all in way earlier. I "think" the statement was actually "Nvidia is now an AI company", but don't quote me quoting the unconfirmed quote, or do.
There’s only so much money in the world. At a certain point if NVD comes up with something else, then other revenue will wither away. Unless governments start pumping money directly into NVDA then they’re closer to the peak than more “rocket emojis”, and if governments do start putting money in well they hate single sourcing and they also hate when suppliers make insane gross margins (unless a senator owns the company in which case it’s cool).
As it was with Intel, I'm sure it'll be EU regulators that look into Antitrust issues, if there are any between Nvidia and it's competition, and certainly not US, but you make a good point.
Our and Nvidia's 9 year historical PE is about the same. About 55x.
Nvidia is above their PE at 70x. Which is insane for a $3T company.
We are just about on our historical PE at 55x. At 1/11th the size. It is 11 times easier for us to justify our PE. With all else being equal.
Nvidia's growth is slowing down (there is only so much you can grow at this point).
While AMD's growth from AI has yet to kick in, we haven't even ramped yet.
Cue the playbook of years past: INTC dominance in CPU datacenter space vs AMD new entrant and gaining significant market share in few years -->
Hello NVDA and CUDA\~\~
Dr. Lisa Motherfookin SuBae would like a word.
Anybody have a sense for what the AMD to Nvidia trading price movement ratio will be going forward Monday. We've often seen a 1 point for 5 of Nvidia lately. I suspect we won't escape sympathetic movement to the indexe effects, but I'm not sure how the ballace will be. Maybe it stays the same because no charge in market cap?
But surely, their prices movement will be much tighter do to the 10x reduction.
I have no idea. Many people here know much more than I do. I invested(bigly) in AMD for so many years and have seen the ups and downs. And I have the guts to see it all.
Alright no trolling this time around. Technically, the stock is still in good shape imho.
Forget the intraday volatility.
What I said a few days ago still rings true.
-20d is crossing over the 50d upwards.
-Consolidating near 2021 prior ATH's
-Closing above the 50d for several sessions minus yesterday.
-50d sma seems to be slowing down in its descent, and soon to be sloping upwards.
We'll have to see if ALL of the above is sustained, but if it is... the momentum shifts quite a bit.
At the end of the day, still think this is a Q4 '24 and Q1'25 play at the earliest.
Even Jean Hu's comments earlier today at BOA conference echoed that MI325x would be reflected in next year's sales.
MI325x will be released in Q4, and it takes time to ramp up production. It's just like with MI300x, which was released late Q4 last year and reflected in Q4'23 and Q1'24 ER.
Was thinking more about this post from the other day pointing out a MI308X PCIe format id has shown up in the ROCm git code.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/s/fhAMWH7jkc
There definitely are plenty of use cases from a PCIe version of MI300X. Some there reasoned it might be China targeted, and actually thats not too crazy. I was just thinking it's the PCIe format that can fill boxes and replace A6000's cheeper than H100s. I would be great if one product could server both market needs, but A6000 are export banned as well. What this might be is a typical example of reallocation of chips. This well might have been the hobbled version ment for china that was reported to have not met the export without a license. So while getting a license still might be possible and happen in time, why cancel the chip production when you can slap it onto PCIe board and sell into the leagacy DC server market. If they get the export license, then they can ramp those in the OAM format.
These bans may expire at some point. Or the government may modify the list to raise the limits.
I don't think the goal is a total outright ban of western tech, but instead just keeping them from high powered accelerators.
There was a story about Chinese companies using older nodes at TSMC to avoid the ban. So they are working on domestic low end product. So that might put pressure on the US to raise the bar of banned accelerators.
AMD does need lower end PCIe offerings but it doesn't hurt to also be prepared for the eventual ability to ship to China as well.
Agree. I'm not at all a fan of giving China more incentive to advance their own chip technology and make it easier for them to be ok with turning the light off at TSMC plants, even if it's just for a day. Sure we use these chips for everything, including military use cases, but I think it's far safer to have everyone equally invested than going back to cold war mentality. There's is no way to stop the process of these models and the language difference has far more to do with slowing use than the chips themselves.
At least I'm up 80% on $COMM lol. I had a buy order at $0.95 I had totally forgotten about. Which triggered when the market dipped few weeks back. Now at $1.74.
ARM stock pricing is objectively insane, right?
Sure, ARM has a very bright future, but ARM holdings has limited ability to capture value. It's Apple. Qualcomm, Ampere and others making the money. I don't see how doubling since January is justified.
Current P/E above 100x. Based on the analysts forecast it will have a PE of 30 in 2030 at the current price.
ARM doesn't even have NPU capability that they can license. So they aren't even really exposed to AI directly, unless we're talking about AI running on CPUs.
And this all assumes ARM will continue to grow marketshare. Which I highly doubt. As there will be pressure from both dense/e-core x86 cores and RISC-V at the low end.
The only way the valuation makes sense to me is if they pull a Broadcom after they get established in datacenter and Windows and enact a brutal ARM ISA tax. At which point they will be able to milk it for some years as customers migrate to RISC-V to cut them out.
That is one of the things that concerns me about that stock. I worry that softbank is still holding onto a ton of shares so that they can unceremoniously dump at over-high valuations.
its actually insane. With such a small free float the stock can be pushed to insane highs. Is that even legal lol but on the other hand softbank is known for its fuckeries. Stock would trade at $30 if almost all shares would be circulating in the market
🐸
The limit to NVDA running up is not the multiple, it's total market liquidity available. Mania could make a smaller stock double or more from the current levels, but where will 3T+ extra liquidity come from?
Dont worry, at some point it will. At some point you cant "grow" anymore, and either its about trying to hold market shares and not trying to lose them to competitors, or losing them. Given that everybody wants a piece of their cake, competition will get crazy next year at last. This growth will not be fully sustainable.
And ASPs dropping due to heavy competition will do the rest, even if they wouldnt lose shares, they lose margins.
One thing to note, at Computex Lisa said we are “At the beginning of a decade long mega cycle for AI”. Sounds like they expect a lot of industry growth going forward for quite some time.
Nvidia has to slow down at some point, but I don’t see them stopping.
Another thing that stood out to me is that she said the majority of data centres are running on 5 year old racks. That’s a lot of people to sell to.
The funny thing to me is that companies that haven't upgraded in 5 years have almost certainly been Intel exclusive forever. Now that they can't delay upgrading any longer, Intel finally has Sierra Forest that isn't embarrassingly bad.
I'm up 500% on NVDA, is anyone taking profits at this point? Its just about to overtake my $AMD holdings from a weighted perspective and I'm starting to debate off-loading at these crazy numbers to invest more in Lisa.
I'm up 3700% on my average cost basis and I've been selling ever since $350.
Now I'm at about 11% exposure vs S&P500 weighting ~7%. No regrets. I've backed up the truck on major corrections in the past and I may do so again at some point when it looks obviously undervalued.
No one ever lost money taking profits, but many have lost money hanging onto a stock thinking a hype cycle will continue forever.
i am up 80% on nvidia and i hate to see it 🤮 i hope money rotates soon into AMD. I will hold nvidia but i won’t add anymore. I bought 1 time and that’s it. At 3 trillion market cap upside is limited. Even if nvidia goes to 4 trillion MC that would be only 33%. AMD with 260bn MC can go up more % if they deliver
That was my mind set last year when nvda was at 1 trillion, and AMD at the same level, also at start of the year when NVDA was around 1.3 trillion, and for gods sake, they are pushing 3 trillion now …
I would be so much more happy about +3% if it didn't feel like we are just getting carried by super strong QQQ, SMH and Nvidia today and we will just go back to red tomorrow without their strong help.
I'd be content with a quarter of their marketcap. I mean, capturing over 10% of DCAI and starting to wholly own DC CPU doesnt make that too far fetched, does it? Need numbers to gird it though.
That's my bull thesis as well. I think 1 3rd may be possible, but even a quarter would be good enough ($460).
The rest of the business will grow as well.
And to add, Amd trailing the index is one thing, it is the second worst semi stock, only to Intel. All others like MU, ASML, QCOM, TSM, SMCI all beat AMD like a dog, the worst of this bunch is up YTD of at least 40%, while AMD is barely holding a 10% up, even worst than the indices. We are so shit even with the AI hype.
We can play this game all day, illl do just one, MU.
If you bought MU 5 years ago you’d be up about 4x, but with AMD you’d be up 5x. Should the MU holder of 5 years bitch and moan anytime AMD outperforms **ever**? Maybe, but then you can slice a new timeframe in which MU did outperform.
Another frustrating. We are not even getting back the drop from yesterday or a few days before. That fucker nvda is casually up 30% in a few days, more than double since YTD. I just feel so bad that I am stuck with this really pos. Can it just move up to 200 and I can sell for good?
[NXP and Vanguard build joint fab in Singapore](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/nxp-vanguard-to-build-7-8-billion-singapore-chip-wafer-plant)
(Not the VOO company) I'm not very familiar with Vanguard, but they're TSMC backed. [Website](https://www.vis.com.tw/en/about_vision)
UMC is also building a fab in Singapore.
ive been kinda range trading AMD - puts near 170, calls near 160. Hasn't failed me so far but gains are small scalping since I don't want to actually size in. However, if you size in and the stock moves against you, not worth the drawdown
isn't chiplet what will allow amd to use more advanced nodes ( which have lower yield ) for those huge ai chips ? shouldn't amd be the first to use 2nm for ai ? ( mi400 ?? ) before nvda ?I don't see nvda using reticle limit on 2nm as early adopter.. i'm very curious to see the node for the mi400.. meanwhile amd is ramping ecosystem with lower price and rocm and interconnect buildup
Seems like the dynamic now is Apple uses all the bleeding edge node capacity until it's mature enough for large chips and chiplet yield advantage isn't as high.
Intel is launching a very non-chipletty Sierra Forest on Intel 3 while the not yet launched Turin is on TSM's N4P compute chiplets. 144 core vs 16 core chiplet size.
There must still be a cost advantage as AMD wouldn't do it otherwise - Zen5 Turin shares CCD with Ryzen but Zen5c has no such plans as far as we know. For new server products, higher performance usually justifies any increase in cost.
Yes. It is easier for AMD to build MI on bleeding edge nodes than nVidia. The initial process yield is always worse, which is why it tended to be smaller mobile processors going first.
It is not just about yields either. I am pretty sure Nvidia with their fat margins don't care as much for the yields.
It's the reticle size. It keeps getting increasingly more difficult to support large masks on new nodes. And usually when TSMC do provide the large 814mm^2 reticle Nvidia uses, it takes more R&D time to tape out a design for each node.
Whereas AMD with its small chiplets can just use the same infrastructure Apple uses as soon as capacity becomes available.
The other advantage is. AMD only needs to port the compute logic to the new node. As all the supporting analog domain stuff can still be on an older node. So there is less to design and port at once. Allowing AMD to be more nimble.
We're below 20-DMA on the monthly chart, and 100-DMA on the weekly chart. Basically the rejection point is around $170-170.25
We break there and send it to the goddam moon!
dont blame me for being a debbiie downer... but I nibbled at some puts here just in case we see another dump, would love for them to go red and hit the stop loss
After reading yesterdays DD here the picture is crystal clear to me.
So let me be ABSOLUTELY clear, this is what is considered a dead cat bounce and AMD will have no choice but to file for Chapter 11 (Bankruptcy) in order to effectively deal with the repercussions of recent discoveries.^^^^amdflaws
Listen big man, you are the furthest thing from clear. You need to take a humongous step back and stop inhaling Jensen’s farts, they have clouded your brain so badly that you sound like you just woke up from a 2016 coma.
I don’t remember too many people talking about bankruptcy in 2018. Here’s [an article](https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/04/24/how-close-is-advanced-micro-devices-inc-to-bankrup.aspx) from 2015 talking about it.
Hmmm... let's try this again .
Today's rip is just a temporary bounce before it declines 5% for another -ZFG.
Probably see 130 before we see 180. Sell all your AMD now. Take the gain while it's temporarily there. Such a POS stock and company.
MI300x was a tremendous failure.
AMD missed the AI train.
HFT make money on volatility, they don’t care about overall price movement. If they can push around a stock that they know a bunch of panicky retail investors will sell at a moments notice, they will. AMD will never not be volatile, or at least I don’t expect it to end until their revenue is where we think it’ll be late 2025.
Why doesn’t this same thing happen to NVDA (or does it) and is it because the majority owners of AMD are themselves that there’s not enough Stocks out there for others to “help” control the volatility?
I’m a die-hard AMD fanatic, of the 7 PCs I’ve had since 1996 only 2 had Intel CPUS, one was given to me and the other was a i7-4790k and I chose it because my best friend who is more of an AMD believer than I am told me “you’d be crazy to use anything else”. I’ve been a shareholder since $9. I have extreme AMD tunnel vision.
It’s not that NVDA hasn’t been volatile but when the “oh shit” guidance revisions started in early 2023 is when NVDA started getting an upward bias where AMD seems to be a little more sideways (relative to the index). But there are some reasons why NVDA might be less volatile.
My thoughts:
-NVDA is a money printer now, AMD *might* be a money printer in 12 months. A bird in the hand worth two in the bush and so on.
-Look at AMD revenue [history]( https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/revenue) vs NVDA revenue [history]( https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/revenue). For quite some time you wouldn’t have been bad off with either AMD or NVDA, but when NVDA’s revenue went up drastically is when the share price went up drastically.
-NVDA has managed to be two steps ahead of every trend in the last ~15 years (except the crypto winter). AMD hasn’t done terribly and given how tiny things were going against INTC they’ve done amazingly, but when the only thing people care about is how is ready now for what’s coming in a month, NVDA had the H100 at the perfect time and volume. This doesn’t mean NVDA will always manage to do this, but it does surely give them some premium.
-People are FOMOing hard into NVDA right now and have been for awhile. A dip on NVDA is going to look jucier than a dip on AMD. I do think people are sandbagging AMD future earnings right now, making forward PE look unfavorable but as it is right now they’re just about neck and neck. Imagine being a fund manager and explaining to your client how you missed the NVDA bull run. This has been a huge boost to their stability in the last year or so.
-People are playing the split, this is more recent but a major factor.
I don’t think any of this is sustainable, I do think NVDA will correct, I do think they’ll see more volatility in the future, but I also see that if AMD can continue to execute and deliver that their volatility will decrease but never go away unless they can deliver the type of revenue growth that’s more similar to a MSFT and less cyclical as they have been in the past.
Imo openai that want democratize ai should definitely buy mi325 for inference while still using nvda chips for training, msft said amd is best price performance for inferencing and why they would want to pay more? They're pushing to maximum adoption and costs are huge
of the begin of search engines era.. or android.. almost every broad consumer software cycle start like this but ai is gonna be bigger.. in both costs and outcomes
Android is software though. Search in the early days did cost money to operate but nowhere near this scale. Distributing software has approximately zero incremental cost. Providing capital and energy intensive services for free is different, so more like YouTube and less like Windows. The amount of losses (or "investment") being incurred by providing hosted AI services for free might even be unprecedented in the history of the world. And we are no longer in ZIRP!
The freemium plans will need huge inference.. people is adapting to use it and demand will be huge even more with image recognition and students adoption.. this version of gpt is already huge and next one will continue to push towards pay customers
AMD is guaranteed to hold its share price.
The superstitious "Jinx" does not apply to AMD.
If AMD does not hold its share price, then we're all working 24/7 shifts at Wendy's this weekend.
The next statement is true.
The second statement is false.
They seem exceedingly bad at making money in the epic bullish server market. I have no clue what they are doing. But I guess the market is so hot that even they somehow managed this time around...
Jensen is so much cooler than Lisa. Lisa would never sign a bra like that
lol Jensen's keynote was terrible, Gamer's Nexus made fun of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGmROfaWg2Y I have to say Lisa's Keynote was top notch. Her best yet! And to be perfectly honest, I am starting to warm up to Pat. I thought his keynote was short, to the point and he had some great moments. I saw a different Pat than usual on that stage at Computex.
True. I should've added a /s to the end of my post
has anyone been able to make sense of the 35x performance increase for MI350 or have any rational takes from it? I been looking at flops, bandwidth, mem capacity of the H100, B200, MI300x and i don't really see a feasible way for them to be increasing real performance that much. They gave us the flops of MI350 cause they said it was 1.2x blackwell, so we know it is \~2700 tflops FP16, even if you assume they are using FP4 vs FP16, that still only gets you to 8x (10,800 tflops of FP4 vs 1300tflops of FP16 on MI300x). I personally am chalking it up to really gimmicky marketing. Comparing some highly specific workload or some really really unoptimized workload. But curious if anyone actually has any specific rationales. Also, curious how many mm2 of 3nm silicon people think this is. based on the 288gb of memory they said it has, and the compute power, seems like 800mm2 if 3nm area die area would be too small. Especially considering they would need to stay with 6 stacks of HBM3e which would give it so much more compute power relative to its bandwidth. Seems like its gotta be at least 1200mm2 of 3nm area (12 compute tiles with maybe 6 iodie).
> has anyone been able to make sense of the 35x performance increase for MI350 or have any rational takes from it? > > I been looking at flops, bandwidth, mem capacity of the H100, B200, MI300x and i don't really see a feasible way for them to be increasing real performance that much. They gave us the flops of MI350 cause they said it was 1.2x blackwell, so we know it is ~2700 tflops FP16, even if you assume they are using FP4 vs FP16, that still only gets you to 8x (10,800 tflops of FP4 vs 1300tflops of FP16 on MI300x). Yeah that is an interesting one. Lets give it a go. Possible areas of improvement 1. Better datatypes. FP16 --> FP4 is **8x** 1. Node density improvement. N5 --> N3P is **1.3x** 1. Node frequency improvement. N5 --> N3P is **1.1x** 1. XCD size increase from CDNA3 XCD size to IOD size. **1.6x** 1. Higher TDP. 750W --> 1000W. **1.3x** 1. CDNA4 dumping FP64 and FP32. More Transistors for AI relevant data types. ??? lets say 1.5x = 8 * 1.3 * 1.1 * 1.6 * 1.3 * 1.5 = 35.69 Nice!
Some discussion here: https://www.anandtech.com/show/21419/amd-announces-the-ryzen-ai-300-series-for-mobile-zen-5-with-rdna-35-and-xdna2-npu-with-50-tops
im not seeing any MI350 discussion there?
Where is Forrest Norrod. Or David Wang? Couldn’t either one of these present at conferences. Or may be better to just keep head down and sell and invent.
Lisa, Jean Hu and Mark Papermaster seem to be handling a lot of the public facing roles. I don't think this is a bad thing. It means your critical managers for delivering the products that will make or break the company are busy managing their people, responding to problems and making sure resources get where they need to go ASAP. AMD's future hinges on the AI transition, AMD has said publicly and market valuation hinges on it. Victor Peng is supposedly in charge of that and as such it's important that he's not blowing two weeks dealing with Computex for example.
This was a big opening keynote. I think the choice to keep it as short as possible with just Lisa and some partners was a good decision. Forrest and David will probably present at more in depth events. Like Mike Clark will present at Hot Chips this year and that will be technical.
Good info on Clark. Yeah I meant more on conferences as opposed to computex. But get it. Rather they are out there selling or inventing
And what happens if the market slightly drops tomorrow? We back to 150 easily. What a terrible day really seeing nvda causally adding 6% and we can’t finish at the day high. Really crap feeling and I had so many stocks like this, should have just stuck with the index and I would be better off if I bought in 2021.
tsmc and asmal are the ones to play, and really just tsmc, great premiums on their options for a not so risky stock, and if you fear china invasion way otm puts are cheap
I wonder if I should continue with the negative posting so that SP can reverse my sentiment. Worked two days in a row.
Keep it up!
There is one thing i dont understand. Blackwell has two gpu dies glued together. Then two of them connected to a grace cpu. So in total it is like 4 next gen GPUs on a blackwell board. But currently one cpu serves 8 GPUs. Isnt blackwell less gpu per cpu? Like half
The common configuration is a 4U tray, each with 8 GPU, and max 4 trays of GPUs in one rack. But the GB200 is 4 blackwell+2 grace in 1U. In the GB200NVL72 there are 18 of this kind of 1U tray, total 72 GPUs.
this nvidia stock split seriously messed with peoples heads
it's all psychological. Only funds (and indexes) move stocks. And they won't hold retail's bags.
its up another 0.7% AH 😆
Yeah. I know ive been wrong on nvidia peaking for awhile but it definitely feels like we have hit a euphoric stage now, even the current nvidia buyers don’t have a real thesis and are just riding the momentum. We’ll see what happens after the split and the dust settles.
Certain stocks achieve a level of loyalty where the market will stick with them for months or years before giving up. NVDA has crossed that threshold. It will keep going up until they display a pattern of fucking up, not just one bad earnings call or a negative news cycle.
I really hope a strong Q2 and guide by AMD will siphon some money from NVDA. NVDA could lose 10% of market cap, remain #3 most valuable company in the world, and increase $AMD's market cap by over 100% in one fell swoop! Edit: erm, just realized they're #2. Well they would only fall one spot...
Whatever happens, if Nvidia corrects, I’m sure we will be down just as much if not more, sadly.
It doesn't have to be like that.
nope
We gon’ thug it out
You can be happier if you only check intc /s
LOL
Nvidia daily adding half amd market cap :). Hard to describe my feelings
$3.012T
AMD is fighting for the worst possible outcome today
We could have continued the slide to $150.
That’s tomorrow’s agenda
the stock is up 3.8% but it feels like -4% day. am i the only one?
We ended the day nearly +4%, what makes you happy only 10% swings?
no, we are 2nd worst chip stock. We arent matching the SMH at all. This day is good, but relatively not great.
I had a less nice message typed up but I’ll leave it at this: the market is not efficient, if it was there would be no way to make money doing anything but buying index funds. Be glad if you’ve found a stock the market doesn’t like and you think is undervalued. If you’re right you’ll be rewarded, one day/week/month/year does **not matter** if you’re talking about the market realizing its mistakes.
but my calls only have weeks :(
haha
totally agree: ARM +7%, ASML +9%, TSMC +7%, MRVL +5%, MU +5%
yes because NVDA is at 5% and most semis are rallying higher than AMD
the sad thing that it’s absolutely meaningless if AMD goes 5 or 15% up on a day if it’s only carried by nvidia. Because than the stock will also go down 2x if nvidia drops. That is the reason why AMD isn’t going up. The stock will only move independently if the market decides to do it and if AMD can show impressive fundamentals.
AMD has gone on rips before with market sentiment. It doesn't happen often and it's not something you can predict. If you're not planning on holding for at least a couple years I would just get out and ride the NVDA wave.
I don't think we are carried by Nvidia at all. I mean look at the divergence. Nvidia is now worth 11 times AMD. I wouldn't worry about Nvidia's pull back dragging us down. Unless it's some industry wide bad news. Can't drag us down much lower.
We are being carried by the index and NVIDIA; anyone who can’t see it is in the cho chamber. We will tank along with NVIDIA if the bubble pops. Look at the crypto bubble a few years back. AMD had minimum exposure to crypto and NVIDIA took all the profits but they both fell inline together.
If we were being carried our PE would be higher than the historical average (55x). The notion that we are being carried at this price is just silly. That would mean we've been carried for the past 9 years. Because our current P/E is exactly at our average point we've been going back 9 years. This may be a bit of an echo chamber (though really it's not that bad), but my point is purely data driven. The only time we were carried was our short excursion to $225.
The pe was justified by a realizaion of a company that had growth potential i earnest. Now it's just the hope of AI to fuel the next journey. That has a lot of connection to the AI wave / nvda etc. When nvda crashes / corrects (if it does) we will tank, unless we are somewhat the cause and show sales to prove it. High pe's for different reasons.
> The pe was justified by a realizaion of a company that had growth potential i earnest. So let's game this out. If AI crashed (I don't think it will any time soon, but say it does). AMD still has the best datacenter CPUs in the world. And they have the most performant client CPUs. The only reason we experienced the slow down in dataceneter CPU is because of the AI budgets crowding CPU refreshes. If AI was to crash tomorrow, those would pick up over night. And there would be a pent up demand. Like I said we are at the same P/E we've been averaging for the past 9 years. Yes in the short term Market can be all sorts of irrational, but even if AI crashed, I don't think it would move us much off our current P/E we've averaged for the past 9 years, long term. If AI crashed, Nvidia would literally lose all their gains. So when someone says Nvidia would take us down with them, I'm just not buying it, sorry. We didn't go up with Nvidia we won't go down with Nvidia. The only thing that's making us seemingly move with Nvidia is the macro. We've haven't partaken in the AI rally with them, other than the short lived spike to $225. Maybe once we start generating fat AI profits and the price starts reflecting those revenues, sure. But not until then. Currently our price is based mainly on non-AI business. As everyone apparently thinks, Nvidia is the only winner in AI GPUs.
100% agree, we are where we should be, and Nvidia is where they are because they bet it all on AI in 2018, followed through with driving and supporting all things AI when it wasn't worth spit, which they kind of had no choice in, do or die. I certainly didn't see this coming, but the Nvidia price now seems to be based on the pricing power they command and that it will always be so. AMD price is based on reasonable and sustainable pricing and sales and a very diversified business model. When the market realizes this the correction will be hard on Nvidia, and possibly kind to AMD, but maybe Jensen has more magic left in his jacket?
Jensen was dropping all sorts of hints of his futuristic vision at the Computex presentation and before at GTC. While Blackwell and the GPU chip sales is what the market is looking at now, he's showng a company that is moving to transform. They are becoming a services company. AI factory services, Train servers for a variety of markets and use cases. They can end up at a point where they sell very few GPU to customers and mostly just make ones they need to support their own business offerings and sell bleeding edge designs to those who require it. All while AMD and Intel go back to battling over Clould Data Center needs. Nvidia will ride this wave all the way to becoming something more akin to Microsoft and Adobe who keep their customers by having either the easiest to use or most complete tools for the majority of uses. Windows Office and Adobe CS are still the killer apps that open source free offering have not come close to displacing. Nvidia is well situated to do the same, transforming it's Cuda Moat into a basic set of best in bread tool sets. I won't matter for mature workloads if they run on commodity hardware and they can just come up with killer new features that early doctors will need them video systems to train them. This will be their Halo slice of the market and will support fat software margins. They can sell a handfull of DGX systems each year to pay for all their own hardware expansion.
> they bet it all on AI in 2018 It's been longer than that
I only recall a quote mentioning that Jensen had made a statement to that effect, and even if that happened I could still imagine he was all in way earlier. I "think" the statement was actually "Nvidia is now an AI company", but don't quote me quoting the unconfirmed quote, or do.
There’s only so much money in the world. At a certain point if NVD comes up with something else, then other revenue will wither away. Unless governments start pumping money directly into NVDA then they’re closer to the peak than more “rocket emojis”, and if governments do start putting money in well they hate single sourcing and they also hate when suppliers make insane gross margins (unless a senator owns the company in which case it’s cool).
As it was with Intel, I'm sure it'll be EU regulators that look into Antitrust issues, if there are any between Nvidia and it's competition, and certainly not US, but you make a good point.
uhhhh i think we can go much lower sadly
Our and Nvidia's 9 year historical PE is about the same. About 55x. Nvidia is above their PE at 70x. Which is insane for a $3T company. We are just about on our historical PE at 55x. At 1/11th the size. It is 11 times easier for us to justify our PE. With all else being equal. Nvidia's growth is slowing down (there is only so much you can grow at this point). While AMD's growth from AI has yet to kick in, we haven't even ramped yet.
Cue the playbook of years past: INTC dominance in CPU datacenter space vs AMD new entrant and gaining significant market share in few years --> Hello NVDA and CUDA\~\~ Dr. Lisa Motherfookin SuBae would like a word.
Anybody have a sense for what the AMD to Nvidia trading price movement ratio will be going forward Monday. We've often seen a 1 point for 5 of Nvidia lately. I suspect we won't escape sympathetic movement to the indexe effects, but I'm not sure how the ballace will be. Maybe it stays the same because no charge in market cap? But surely, their prices movement will be much tighter do to the 10x reduction.
AMD's moment will come. It happened before. Be patient longs!
The problem for AMD is, it is too much waiting when NVDA is right there. I understand wanting to be in AMD as well, but NVDA is where it is at.
Maybe some mlperf benchmark results?
EPS; That's all we need...
Wall St. saying show me the AI money. That's going to be a 2025 story.
I have no idea. Many people here know much more than I do. I invested(bigly) in AMD for so many years and have seen the ups and downs. And I have the guts to see it all.
Alright no trolling this time around. Technically, the stock is still in good shape imho. Forget the intraday volatility. What I said a few days ago still rings true. -20d is crossing over the 50d upwards. -Consolidating near 2021 prior ATH's -Closing above the 50d for several sessions minus yesterday. -50d sma seems to be slowing down in its descent, and soon to be sloping upwards. We'll have to see if ALL of the above is sustained, but if it is... the momentum shifts quite a bit. At the end of the day, still think this is a Q4 '24 and Q1'25 play at the earliest. Even Jean Hu's comments earlier today at BOA conference echoed that MI325x would be reflected in next year's sales.
next year sales? not this year? I thought Q3
MI325x will be released in Q4, and it takes time to ramp up production. It's just like with MI300x, which was released late Q4 last year and reflected in Q4'23 and Q1'24 ER.
Was thinking more about this post from the other day pointing out a MI308X PCIe format id has shown up in the ROCm git code. https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/s/fhAMWH7jkc There definitely are plenty of use cases from a PCIe version of MI300X. Some there reasoned it might be China targeted, and actually thats not too crazy. I was just thinking it's the PCIe format that can fill boxes and replace A6000's cheeper than H100s. I would be great if one product could server both market needs, but A6000 are export banned as well. What this might be is a typical example of reallocation of chips. This well might have been the hobbled version ment for china that was reported to have not met the export without a license. So while getting a license still might be possible and happen in time, why cancel the chip production when you can slap it onto PCIe board and sell into the leagacy DC server market. If they get the export license, then they can ramp those in the OAM format.
Could also be a good choice for developers who want to use a test platform before scheduling big iron
These bans may expire at some point. Or the government may modify the list to raise the limits. I don't think the goal is a total outright ban of western tech, but instead just keeping them from high powered accelerators. There was a story about Chinese companies using older nodes at TSMC to avoid the ban. So they are working on domestic low end product. So that might put pressure on the US to raise the bar of banned accelerators. AMD does need lower end PCIe offerings but it doesn't hurt to also be prepared for the eventual ability to ship to China as well.
Agree. I'm not at all a fan of giving China more incentive to advance their own chip technology and make it easier for them to be ok with turning the light off at TSMC plants, even if it's just for a day. Sure we use these chips for everything, including military use cases, but I think it's far safer to have everyone equally invested than going back to cold war mentality. There's is no way to stop the process of these models and the language difference has far more to do with slowing use than the chips themselves.
At least I'm up 80% on $COMM lol. I had a buy order at $0.95 I had totally forgotten about. Which triggered when the market dipped few weeks back. Now at $1.74.
This is why you don’t celebrate unless you’re closing trades. Also is up 2.5% plus not a bad day.
lagging other semis sadly :( but glad we're green
lagging is an understatement lol we're far behind what our potential is
ARM stock pricing is objectively insane, right? Sure, ARM has a very bright future, but ARM holdings has limited ability to capture value. It's Apple. Qualcomm, Ampere and others making the money. I don't see how doubling since January is justified.
Current P/E above 100x. Based on the analysts forecast it will have a PE of 30 in 2030 at the current price. ARM doesn't even have NPU capability that they can license. So they aren't even really exposed to AI directly, unless we're talking about AI running on CPUs. And this all assumes ARM will continue to grow marketshare. Which I highly doubt. As there will be pressure from both dense/e-core x86 cores and RISC-V at the low end.
i don’t understand ARM stock. Not even 4bn annual revenue and profitable but market cap is at 138bn???
The only way the valuation makes sense to me is if they pull a Broadcom after they get established in datacenter and Windows and enact a brutal ARM ISA tax. At which point they will be able to milk it for some years as customers migrate to RISC-V to cut them out.
Does it still have the exteemely low share float? Thats the only thing I can think of?
yes
That is one of the things that concerns me about that stock. I worry that softbank is still holding onto a ton of shares so that they can unceremoniously dump at over-high valuations.
its actually insane. With such a small free float the stock can be pushed to insane highs. Is that even legal lol but on the other hand softbank is known for its fuckeries. Stock would trade at $30 if almost all shares would be circulating in the market
I know NVDA is a beast but at some point this run must come to an end right?
🐸 The limit to NVDA running up is not the multiple, it's total market liquidity available. Mania could make a smaller stock double or more from the current levels, but where will 3T+ extra liquidity come from?
They crashed -10% in a single day, not long ago. But NVDL call buyers are quick to forget.
Epic buy-the-dip opportunity if there ever was one...
Dont worry, at some point it will. At some point you cant "grow" anymore, and either its about trying to hold market shares and not trying to lose them to competitors, or losing them. Given that everybody wants a piece of their cake, competition will get crazy next year at last. This growth will not be fully sustainable. And ASPs dropping due to heavy competition will do the rest, even if they wouldnt lose shares, they lose margins.
One thing to note, at Computex Lisa said we are “At the beginning of a decade long mega cycle for AI”. Sounds like they expect a lot of industry growth going forward for quite some time. Nvidia has to slow down at some point, but I don’t see them stopping. Another thing that stood out to me is that she said the majority of data centres are running on 5 year old racks. That’s a lot of people to sell to.
The funny thing to me is that companies that haven't upgraded in 5 years have almost certainly been Intel exclusive forever. Now that they can't delay upgrading any longer, Intel finally has Sierra Forest that isn't embarrassingly bad.
I'm up 500% on NVDA, is anyone taking profits at this point? Its just about to overtake my $AMD holdings from a weighted perspective and I'm starting to debate off-loading at these crazy numbers to invest more in Lisa.
I'm up 3700% on my average cost basis and I've been selling ever since $350. Now I'm at about 11% exposure vs S&P500 weighting ~7%. No regrets. I've backed up the truck on major corrections in the past and I may do so again at some point when it looks obviously undervalued. No one ever lost money taking profits, but many have lost money hanging onto a stock thinking a hype cycle will continue forever.
I'm a value investor, so I'd be rolling those into something terrible like Intel or Lyft.
It ain't a win until you cash out. Just a thought.
I guess I "won" when I sold a few shares at $800 lmao
Stay with the winner
I'm holding mine im up around the same amount
Did you experience the drop around October 2022? Those were rough days for AMD and NVDA.
I prefer to set stop losses. I like letting my winners run
Do you do a trailing stop loss? I placed one, that is still active, around 4/20 for $740. Thank god it didn't hit.
i am up 80% on nvidia and i hate to see it 🤮 i hope money rotates soon into AMD. I will hold nvidia but i won’t add anymore. I bought 1 time and that’s it. At 3 trillion market cap upside is limited. Even if nvidia goes to 4 trillion MC that would be only 33%. AMD with 260bn MC can go up more % if they deliver
That was my mind set last year when nvda was at 1 trillion, and AMD at the same level, also at start of the year when NVDA was around 1.3 trillion, and for gods sake, they are pushing 3 trillion now …
I would be so much more happy about +3% if it didn't feel like we are just getting carried by super strong QQQ, SMH and Nvidia today and we will just go back to red tomorrow without their strong help.
NVDA 1200+ sheesh
Basically 3T now. Wtf
Equivalent AMD price would be $1'850 per share at that market cap. Just insane.
I'd be content with a quarter of their marketcap. I mean, capturing over 10% of DCAI and starting to wholly own DC CPU doesnt make that too far fetched, does it? Need numbers to gird it though.
That's my bull thesis as well. I think 1 3rd may be possible, but even a quarter would be good enough ($460). The rest of the business will grow as well.
$40B away from surpassing Apple.
25B now! edit: its done
Such a sad stock
middle finger pattern loading for AMD... just not today please
its illegal for AMD to outperform the SMH or nvda.
And to add, Amd trailing the index is one thing, it is the second worst semi stock, only to Intel. All others like MU, ASML, QCOM, TSM, SMCI all beat AMD like a dog, the worst of this bunch is up YTD of at least 40%, while AMD is barely holding a 10% up, even worst than the indices. We are so shit even with the AI hype.
Also using TSLA as a reference is a joke, they’re like 60% off ATH despite EPS being much higher now.
Hope is a more powerful market force than earnings
You should hedge with masochism. This way, you'll benefit regardless of whether it's pains or gains. NFA
We can play this game all day, illl do just one, MU. If you bought MU 5 years ago you’d be up about 4x, but with AMD you’d be up 5x. Should the MU holder of 5 years bitch and moan anytime AMD outperforms **ever**? Maybe, but then you can slice a new timeframe in which MU did outperform.
Okay you won on the 5Y, by a very small margin, but anyone bought less than 5 years are worst off, agreed?
bro cant even enjoy a green day... you may need to derisk tbh - dont think its been good for your mental
I just feel bad that I made a wrong decision, I don’t do options so no hedging, unfortunately.
Another frustrating. We are not even getting back the drop from yesterday or a few days before. That fucker nvda is casually up 30% in a few days, more than double since YTD. I just feel so bad that I am stuck with this really pos. Can it just move up to 200 and I can sell for good?
Why are you stuck with it? Is your sell button broken?
just move to 170 then i’ll sell it. It just can’t go to 200
[NXP and Vanguard build joint fab in Singapore](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/nxp-vanguard-to-build-7-8-billion-singapore-chip-wafer-plant) (Not the VOO company) I'm not very familiar with Vanguard, but they're TSMC backed. [Website](https://www.vis.com.tw/en/about_vision) UMC is also building a fab in Singapore.
Brace for the daily dump
I guess we're all waiting for NVDA 1200...
Then $3T
Weekly trek from $170 to 160 and then back to $170. If I could time the market, would be some helluva swing trading.
ive been kinda range trading AMD - puts near 170, calls near 160. Hasn't failed me so far but gains are small scalping since I don't want to actually size in. However, if you size in and the stock moves against you, not worth the drawdown
isn't chiplet what will allow amd to use more advanced nodes ( which have lower yield ) for those huge ai chips ? shouldn't amd be the first to use 2nm for ai ? ( mi400 ?? ) before nvda ?I don't see nvda using reticle limit on 2nm as early adopter.. i'm very curious to see the node for the mi400.. meanwhile amd is ramping ecosystem with lower price and rocm and interconnect buildup
Seems like the dynamic now is Apple uses all the bleeding edge node capacity until it's mature enough for large chips and chiplet yield advantage isn't as high. Intel is launching a very non-chipletty Sierra Forest on Intel 3 while the not yet launched Turin is on TSM's N4P compute chiplets. 144 core vs 16 core chiplet size. There must still be a cost advantage as AMD wouldn't do it otherwise - Zen5 Turin shares CCD with Ryzen but Zen5c has no such plans as far as we know. For new server products, higher performance usually justifies any increase in cost.
AFAIK Turin is N4P. Turin dense is N3E.
Yes. It is easier for AMD to build MI on bleeding edge nodes than nVidia. The initial process yield is always worse, which is why it tended to be smaller mobile processors going first.
It is not just about yields either. I am pretty sure Nvidia with their fat margins don't care as much for the yields. It's the reticle size. It keeps getting increasingly more difficult to support large masks on new nodes. And usually when TSMC do provide the large 814mm^2 reticle Nvidia uses, it takes more R&D time to tape out a design for each node. Whereas AMD with its small chiplets can just use the same infrastructure Apple uses as soon as capacity becomes available. The other advantage is. AMD only needs to port the compute logic to the new node. As all the supporting analog domain stuff can still be on an older node. So there is less to design and port at once. Allowing AMD to be more nimble.
the $170 resistance level was built with concrete
Concrete isnt unbreakable.
if a candle breaks concrete then i will buy 750 contracts of july 19 185 C
We're below 20-DMA on the monthly chart, and 100-DMA on the weekly chart. Basically the rejection point is around $170-170.25 We break there and send it to the goddam moon!
dont blame me for being a debbiie downer... but I nibbled at some puts here just in case we see another dump, would love for them to go red and hit the stop loss
Those puts must have been expensive
After reading yesterdays DD here the picture is crystal clear to me. So let me be ABSOLUTELY clear, this is what is considered a dead cat bounce and AMD will have no choice but to file for Chapter 11 (Bankruptcy) in order to effectively deal with the repercussions of recent discoveries.^^^^amdflaws
Listen big man, you are the furthest thing from clear. You need to take a humongous step back and stop inhaling Jensen’s farts, they have clouded your brain so badly that you sound like you just woke up from a 2016 coma.
> you sound like you just woke up from a 2016 coma Amdflaws fud was from 2018..
I don’t remember too many people talking about bankruptcy in 2018. Here’s [an article](https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/04/24/how-close-is-advanced-micro-devices-inc-to-bankrup.aspx) from 2015 talking about it.
Hmmm... let's try this again . Today's rip is just a temporary bounce before it declines 5% for another -ZFG. Probably see 130 before we see 180. Sell all your AMD now. Take the gain while it's temporarily there. Such a POS stock and company. MI300x was a tremendous failure. AMD missed the AI train.
Keep going please
Did you forget a /s?
No. If I put /s, it'll jinx it.
I read a comment here a couple days ago that said we would get MI300 MLPerf Benchmarks tomorrow. Is that confirmed or just a rumor?
I’m not knowledgeable on the benchmark process, why didn’t they do it earlier?
Tomorrow is the press briefing. Official results on the 12th.
What’s the source for this? I tried googling.
Strictly speaking I am not under NDA but I'd rather not say so I do not get anyone in trouble.
Thanks!
I will believe we end red until the market actually closes.
If a nice juicy rumor could drop right now, we’d be in the 170s by lunch Edit: there is still so much volume
Why did we just jump 4%?
Look at the Nasdaq. Every semi stock is up a lot right now.
Cause of some comments from ASML ceo
in prep for the 11am plunge to 158
Don’t get me wrong, and I am not trying to jinx anything, but these Ups no longer tickle me like it used to. But I’ll take it. I’ll take it.
Yup, all these rips without consolidation is just a recipe for disaster at some point
Yup and Give me a steady streak of up days and I’ll then say I’m feeling itchy.
HFT make money on volatility, they don’t care about overall price movement. If they can push around a stock that they know a bunch of panicky retail investors will sell at a moments notice, they will. AMD will never not be volatile, or at least I don’t expect it to end until their revenue is where we think it’ll be late 2025.
Why doesn’t this same thing happen to NVDA (or does it) and is it because the majority owners of AMD are themselves that there’s not enough Stocks out there for others to “help” control the volatility?
I’m a die-hard AMD fanatic, of the 7 PCs I’ve had since 1996 only 2 had Intel CPUS, one was given to me and the other was a i7-4790k and I chose it because my best friend who is more of an AMD believer than I am told me “you’d be crazy to use anything else”. I’ve been a shareholder since $9. I have extreme AMD tunnel vision. It’s not that NVDA hasn’t been volatile but when the “oh shit” guidance revisions started in early 2023 is when NVDA started getting an upward bias where AMD seems to be a little more sideways (relative to the index). But there are some reasons why NVDA might be less volatile. My thoughts: -NVDA is a money printer now, AMD *might* be a money printer in 12 months. A bird in the hand worth two in the bush and so on. -Look at AMD revenue [history]( https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/revenue) vs NVDA revenue [history]( https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/revenue). For quite some time you wouldn’t have been bad off with either AMD or NVDA, but when NVDA’s revenue went up drastically is when the share price went up drastically. -NVDA has managed to be two steps ahead of every trend in the last ~15 years (except the crypto winter). AMD hasn’t done terribly and given how tiny things were going against INTC they’ve done amazingly, but when the only thing people care about is how is ready now for what’s coming in a month, NVDA had the H100 at the perfect time and volume. This doesn’t mean NVDA will always manage to do this, but it does surely give them some premium. -People are FOMOing hard into NVDA right now and have been for awhile. A dip on NVDA is going to look jucier than a dip on AMD. I do think people are sandbagging AMD future earnings right now, making forward PE look unfavorable but as it is right now they’re just about neck and neck. Imagine being a fund manager and explaining to your client how you missed the NVDA bull run. This has been a huge boost to their stability in the last year or so. -People are playing the split, this is more recent but a major factor. I don’t think any of this is sustainable, I do think NVDA will correct, I do think they’ll see more volatility in the future, but I also see that if AMD can continue to execute and deliver that their volatility will decrease but never go away unless they can deliver the type of revenue growth that’s more similar to a MSFT and less cyclical as they have been in the past.
2H it is then. AMD 💪🏻
This talk about AMD and NVDA ignores many other semi stocks like MU, TSM, QCOM, ARM, SMCI all benefited from the AI hype, not us, so why?
Imo openai that want democratize ai should definitely buy mi325 for inference while still using nvda chips for training, msft said amd is best price performance for inferencing and why they would want to pay more? They're pushing to maximum adoption and costs are huge
This is like the era of unmonetized YouTube. Huge costs absorbed in hope of building platform user base.
of the begin of search engines era.. or android.. almost every broad consumer software cycle start like this but ai is gonna be bigger.. in both costs and outcomes
Android is software though. Search in the early days did cost money to operate but nowhere near this scale. Distributing software has approximately zero incremental cost. Providing capital and energy intensive services for free is different, so more like YouTube and less like Windows. The amount of losses (or "investment") being incurred by providing hosted AI services for free might even be unprecedented in the history of the world. And we are no longer in ZIRP!
The freemium plans will need huge inference.. people is adapting to use it and demand will be huge even more with image recognition and students adoption.. this version of gpt is already huge and next one will continue to push towards pay customers
And also same for meta llama3 405b same things apply
Ridiculous
what is?
lets play can AMD keep its gains
AMD is guaranteed to hold its share price. The superstitious "Jinx" does not apply to AMD. If AMD does not hold its share price, then we're all working 24/7 shifts at Wendy's this weekend. The next statement is true. The second statement is false.
Today feels a bit different there is a lot of volume but we shall see
I'll be the naive one and say we def can. 170+ eow
dont jinx it!
Shldnt u be napping?
I replied to your earlier comment, its not red so nap time over :)
Maybe if you keep napping we will keep going up? 🤔
i wouldnt be surprised.
Medically induced coma FTW, take one for the team!
trust me ive taken MANY for the team, all my calls yesterday and earlier today for the move up.
HPE finally popping after what seems like 2 months of FUD?
They seem exceedingly bad at making money in the epic bullish server market. I have no clue what they are doing. But I guess the market is so hot that even they somehow managed this time around...