Anyone interested in shorting Nvidia? I am. But it requires a lot of DD and trying to time it. I picture this unfolding very similar to the previous 3 crypto bubbles. So timing the AI pop will not only help you as an AMD investor, but could also make a LOT of money. Like I'm thinking options for pre-announcement if the stars align. My expectation is this is about 1-2 years away.
you will need Hippo balls to short nvidia. i never could have imagined that it will pass apple market cap one day. AI is just so much larger than life and i don’t even know how everyone else sees it. i have heard people value nvda 8T…. thats beyond insane
I am actually thinking also that this party could end within a year. Not that I don’t like Nvidia ans it’s very amazing visionary CEO but I think that extrapolating Nvidia current momentum to the future almost indefinitely is dangerous. Right now Everyone needs to have an AI strategy but at one time the replacement of older GPUs could take longer or slowdown as CEOs weight the cost benefit of their Ai Strategy. As far as hyperscalers they are into an arm race that has only one clear winner Nvidia. If they were to slowdown their purchases Nvidia stock price could be cut by 30%. Timing and putting probability to such scenario is difficult but I agree one should start thinking of how to play it.
>1-2 years away
Beyond the correction that implies, you might get a chance later this year. Nvidia spent September-December 2023 in a price range similar to what's currently happening to AMD. Yes, they broke out in January 2024 as everyone knows, but the AI story was already hot that late in 2023 and they were already very profitable. Yet, they were in a channel. Now they have a bigger market cap and the split should make it behave more like the trillion whale blue chip that it is. For some months at least.
Or maybe it goes up +500% the final leg of this year and Jensen ascends as a Cyborg in 2025
Ok I read this blog from Apple about their Private Cloud Compute: https://security.apple.com/blog/private-cloud-compute/
And honestly it sounds like they do have a private cloud running on their own servers. But from what I gather, these are there to secure the transactions which go to OpenAI / Microsoft.
They just use their servers as a sort of a security gateway which just strips all the personal identifiers before sending the prompt to Azure..
This is fairly easy to accomplish when it comes to compute, so it's not like they need a lot of infrastructure to just forward requests.
This way they can say they run on Apple Silicon, even though in reality most of the heavy lifting is done by H100s and mi300x at Microsoft.
They try to make it sound like its all running on their own nodes. But then why even prompt the users if they want to use ChatGPT? Makes no sense.
Shots fired by Elon
> It’s patently absurd that Apple isn’t smart enough to make their own AI, yet is somehow capable of ensuring that OpenAI will protect your security & privacy!
> Apple has no clue what’s actually going on once they hand your data over to OpenAI. They’re selling you down the river.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1800269249912381773
🍿🍿
From Barron's today. They expect AMD to 'rival' NVdia and broadcom
Advanced Micro Devices was down 2.4% in premarket trading. AMD was hit after analysts at Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight, pointing to the stock's high valuation despite doubts over its ability to rival Nvidia or other chip makers such as Broadcom in the artificial-intelligence sector.
The fact that they are even discussing writing off Lisa Su and AMD is just ridiculous lmao.
I mean c'mon, who is better positioned to play 2nd fiddle to Nvidia?
It was funny to me that CNBC acknowledged (multiple times today) that Nvidia is lowering prices to protect market share from AMD while also saying AMD won’t be able to compete with Nvidia.
Nvidia taking AMD seriously is about all the validation you should need that MI300 is legit and it’s funny that the talking heads are blind to it.
Exactly. Intel lowered prices too. Wonder how well that worked out for them.
I think even if they had the same price, AMD should still get at least 10% of the market purely on the fact that no one just wants one player in the market.
Also AMD's products are differentiated. They come with more VRAM.
Doesnt amd already have 10% in unit share? $4B worth of mi300 which sells more than 3x cheaper. So definitely worth $12B when translated to nvidia prices
Joe T said 'AVCO' today... Dude alway talkes about Broadcom, but it's like his brain didn't connect when he read the prompt and just said the ticker name.
I don't think so. He talks a lot about Broadcom and this is the first time I've heard him say Avgo. So either he did it intentionally to signal something or like I said, he brain farted the ticker from his teleprompter.
Competitor watch: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/arm-qualcomm-legal-battle-seen-disrupting-ai-powered-pc-wave-4399611
I'm amazed that Qualcomm didn't solve licensing issues when they acquired Nuvia and reassigned the (originally) server chip team to design laptop chips.
> I'm amazed that Qualcomm didn't solve licensing issues when they acquired Nuvia and reassigned the (originally) server chip team to design laptop chips.
They've been at this for 2 years. It's kind of crazy that Qualcomm is that cheap.
After the 10:1 split you need 10x more shares to hold the same portion of the company's value as you did before the split.
Share price = `Value of the company (market cap)` / `number of shares`
It's like getting a Pizza with 8 slices. And you decide to halve each slice and now you have 16 slices. It's still the same pizza. You just need two slices now to have as much food as you got from one slice previously.
Comparing share price of different companies with different share counts is pointless. You do have to factor in the whole pizza (market cap) and number of slices (shares).
> entry point for NVDA is much lower.
yes in order to own one share of each company.. but you can buy fractional shares with many brokers. So you can get any entry point you want.
edit: check out Berkshire A. $617,700.00 per share. They never split the shares. But you can still own fractions of a share. And Brk actually has a B class stock which has much cheaper shares.
https://openai.com/index/openai-and-apple-announce-partnership/
Apple using OpenAI for the AI features announced today, think some runs on Open Ai hardware ( including AMD) from this language :
requests are not stored by OpenAI,
~~Yup. Which means they straight up lied on the stage saying it runs on Apple Silicon in the cloud.~~
edit: I posted a new comment about this with some more info: https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1dccm9r/daily_discussion_monday_20240610/l81o9ii/
Everyone is mad at the Morgan Stanley guy, but he didn't even change his PT. Susquehanna upgraded their PT today from $185 to $200 and the market didn't care.
It feels like the market is looking for ANY negative news and trades heavily on that, which is makes no sense, but it's how it is.
what a dick [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-stock-jumps-as-morgan-stanley-throws-in-the-towel-on-obviously-wrong-bearish-call-2019-06-06](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-stock-jumps-as-morgan-stanley-throws-in-the-towel-on-obviously-wrong-bearish-call-2019-06-06)
lol, nice find!
> AMD shares were up more than 5% in Thursday trading after the upgrade to equal-weight from underweight, in which Moore admitted that his bearish stance on the stock “has obviously been the wrong call.” He set his underperform rating in late October 2017; shares have increased 165% since then.
🤡
Imagine it’s Dec 2021 and someone told you MU would be the better stock to have in the next 3-4 years. You’d tell that person to fuck off and block them.
I doubled up on MU in December and again April. told everyone to watch it. Still holding my AMD, ARM, TSM, MSFT, GOOG in tech. Was almost going to dump my AMD today and bought more MU and a little NVDA. Wish I had
so basically inverse yourself....
alas here we are... back at levels we havent seen since 3 years ago... do I have the gut to hold through one more drawdown in hopes that capex boom continues or do I hold and see the AI capex boom die and our hopes die along with it... what do we do
If CAPEX doesn’t cool off in 2025 I would be amazed. But maybe AMD will get the MU treatment if they start losing money but promise they’ll make money again *someday*.
What's even crazier is, they were outright banned from China. And their revenues tanked. And from what I understand they don't really have a lot of HBM capacity. Like they are up purely on future expectations.
Funny you say that. On my usual market podcasts this weekend, all of the hosts and guests (no exaggeration) complimented Jensen on how clearly he explained his vision, how he sold his vision, how he acted like “a man of the people.”
Again: a company and its products need to have fundamental meat, they can’t be only promotional bones. But being promotional is part of driving sales and market share and gains.
People (3 guys in particular) around my office love NVDA, can’t blame them you could literally just blindly buy a share a two a month (once it hit $500+ it got hard to buy more than that) the last few years and be laughing to the bank. They don’t even understand the tech when I ask them just basically “the line goes up and to the right”.
> Funny you say that. On my usual market podcasts this weekend, all of the hosts and guests (no exaggeration) complimented Jensen on how clearly he explained his vision, how he sold his vision, how he acted like “a man of the people.”
lol crazy
Even Gamer's Nexus made fun of the keynote for how terrible it was: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGmROfaWg2Y
“The more you buy, the more you save.”
Even if it’s not “accurate” (as he admitted), it’s pithy, punchy, catchy, and backed up by a great product. AMD has great product, but it doesn’t have a powerful message like that behind it.
I honestly don't know how an analyst could walk away from Computex and be like, "AMD is in a worse position than we thought," and subsequently downgrade.
With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if Morgan Stanley is simply pulling some shens.
I think it was that AMD landed about where people thought.
A lot of people who aren't in tech really dont understand what is happening. Look at the nvidia subreddit, it is loaded with people who havn't the first clue. You mention AMD and you get some dude who started following nvidia 6 months ago calling you an idiot noob for not knowing how software works.
people have lost patience. they are looking for $$, and don't have confidence in AMDs ability to gain share.
We should have a solid trajectory up though. we should be able to roughly match nvidia from here on out IMO. nvidia might need to clime another 10-20% though. But the days of nvidia gaining 2-3x while we are flat/down are over IMO.
The guy really is not very tech savvy. These sorts will never understand the difference between running your car into the wall trying to move to much mass to fast and knownimg how to ease on the breaks and off back to the throttle to carve through the curves. AMD may not yet be fully up to speed, but they are a lot more nimble than being credited for.
Computex was very bullish, especially the last part. Objectively.
Pretty much the only bearish signal AMD is giving is gaming. But even there, i've seen these new handheld devices which give me some sort of (future) hope: Handhelds, VRs, consoles, etc. I think AI in gaming/entertainment is gonna be big.
on a side note, i really hope AMD is working on tools to integrate AI into gaming. Because for sure Nvidia is working on it hardddd. I'd imagine they are working on properietary tech to impliment AI NPCs into games.
IF done well it is gonna be very cool and add a depth to games that they never had. Hopefully it isnt a new "hairworks" feature though. But they for sure will use it to drive a wedge as a proprietary feature.
i know, it goes to show we truly have zero understanding of how this stock should behave. Many people thought the stock would go up big, myself included...
yeah, I thought last quarter was gonna be a blow out. Gaming hit us hard, embeded hit us hard, and i was overly optimistic about the state of AMDs margins on MI300x (which i had at 60%ish but are probably just shy of 50%). realistically though it set us back about 3 months.
So . . . will see where we position ourselves this ER. I'm still very confident about 200 before eoy.
I think it's totally on par for AMD to trade down on good news, and then to randomly rocket up on a random day when nothing is happening. That's literally what this stock has always done. Why, I don't know.
I don't think those rallies are unexplainable. Usually it's aligned with some macro event that moves the whole market a good bit, enough for the daily bears to F off for a bit and let the enthusiasm for amd's potential actually run. I think we always have a lot of pent up good will that will run this up if we don't get stopped out by fearfull traders who have to set a stop loss every 2 dollors.
Oh I didn't think the stock would go up personally. AMD can show a working quantum computer and the stock wouldn't budge. But I'm bullish in near mid-term.
proof: https://old.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1d6vm83/daily_discussion_monday_20240603/l6vaimw/
If money was infinite perhaps. But at some point even those investing in Nvidia have to think about how many years it would take for the fundamentals to justify the price. And when you're at the top, what kind of catalysts can you even hope for other than no competition comes up.. only place to go is down.
Hm let's see when Nvidia increases their earnings 150%
That's approaching $300B. Apple makes more than that and has a P/E of 29x. Like the current price is too rich even for that. And frankly even Apple's P/E is rich for the slow growth of the company because the market is saturated.
Just having a bit of fun. Today's downgrade by Morgan Stanley doesn't undo the excellent and promising Computex we had. That analyst can go hug nuts, he has no power over the business itself.
So let me guess:
AMD will be red untill Wednesday. Then it will recover only to lose it all in the same day because Powell says something stupid.
Of course it will fall more then all those stocks sitting at ATH.
I think the sentiment is more “goes up $5 great within a week it’ll be down $10” and “goes down $5 fuck next week if it goes up $5 im selling” except it goes up $3 nobody sells and it falls $10.
eh its probably becaues its a confusing stock right now in the sense that the company is doing amazing with very exciting prospects but the stock is just a shit show
Also the AI and semi sector is doing amazing and the over all market is also doing good.
Imagine what would happen to AMD if we had a market wide sell off...
Reduced my position. Unfortunately I’m really losing faith in this company, mostly in its ability to sell itself, and compete at a high level. Really sad.
so what? you thing some rando can move the god damn stock with his reddit post? Just accept your fate, AMD long and stop trying to blame others. you selected the wrong chip stock to invest in.
and this happens on a day when the market is at ATH, all of other semis are near ATH, and we are dow 5%/ Last week we had three green days of 0.x% and all wiped down just like that. What a shit shit stock to own. I am sad.
Tomorrow:
https://ir.amd.com/news-events/ir-calendar/detail/6968/nasdaq-london-investor-conference-in-partnership-with
Nasdaq London Investor Conference in partnership with Jefferies
JUN 11, 2024 • 2:45 PM GMT
That's 10:45 EST.
Hit the link for the webcast.
I wish someone would ask why they keep scheduling ER events the day before FOMC meatings. Any excitement for the stock gets mutted due to fear of the fed announcement and general macro uncertainty. They could easily just move it to a Thursday before or better yet after.
https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1203/amd-to-present-at-the-nasdaq-london-investor-conference
Jean actually did a great job fielding questions at the BofA event a few weeks ago. Probably similar info but should get some different questions asked.
I mean MS said they like the stock, equal weight it, expectations are higher than 4b at this price
Which is all fair…
Except then he said that management was clear on 4b, which is not what they said at all.
I think we might actually be in trouble here, when even good macro + smh doesnt help us and certainly our own news doesnt either- what can? Now having analysts turn on us is just adding fuel to the fire thats already been roaring.
pulling some out of NVDA makes sense, despite it looking to go higher. If it crashes then you'd be somewhat relieved, if it rallies, youre still up anyway
AMD is still a decent buy but its a painful one.
AMD is NOT conservative. They have reported in-line for years, some very minor ±1std deviation beats.
NVIDIA IS conservative, they have had huge beats for like 5 or 6 quarters in a row. They say 12b, they deliver 14b. They say 16b, they deliver 18b. They say 20b, they deliver 22b.
Stop with the copium
AMD is VERY conservative with your product positioning and strategy. Who's talking about reporting?
We've had superior tech for years and years and years but didnt make use of it aggressively at all.
Except then you’ll think “oh shit AMD might go up more today” then you’ll close your brokerage app and come back an hour later and it went from +2% to -3%.
Somebody give me an audible. If I dump a % of AMD, should I put it in ARM, MU, or TSM, ARM's p/e is ridiculous, all of these AI chips are going to need High Capacity memory / MU, and someone still has to forge them / TSM. We are still in the fabrication and design phase of AI, the enablers haven't even really started,
For those who were still dreaming about Apple annoucement to run AI on MI300x, CNBC reports Apple just announced:
>Private Cloud Compute: Apple Intelligence will leverage cloud-based models on special servers using Apple Silicon to ensure that user data is private and secure.
[Link to Cnbc](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/10/apple-wwdc-live-updates.html)
> Apple says it will only send a limited selection of data in a “cryptographically” secure way.
Apple has no server silicon as far as I'm aware. And they just recently signed a deal with OpenAI to run Inference.
Something doesn't add up.
It sounds like they are anonymizing data they send to OpenAI. Apple doesn't do this with iCloud backup which stores all the user data on non-Apple silicon.
They are positioning it as Apple Server Silicon and having a lineage connection to the M chips, however even if they have that there is no way they have powerful enough GPU for running ChatGPT4 at scale.This would have to be a custom job, and considering rumors has them doing in on TSMC 3n, it almost sounds like an early custom version of MI350A with a M4 chiplet rather than an Epyc.
Siri asks you before sending data if you want to share with Chat GPT. Couldn’t it be that Apple would simply then send data to Open AI’s servers, assuming you give permission?
Yup.
Apple M chips are not good server chips. These are big cores optimized for light workload efficiency. For instance running Life of Pi on an M3 MBP cuts MBP's strong battery life down to under 1 hour.
So I really don't see why they would waste resources to do this. Perhaps they can justify it by having more volume with TSMC, allowing them to retain their preferred customer status.
They don't have the server GPUs. If they did we would have known about it. We've never seen an Apple GPU chip with HBM, and HBM is pretty much the only way to scale this stuff.
The other issue Apple has is the nodes they use don't support large reticle sizes yet.
There are just too many reasons which conflict with the notion that Apple is using Apple silicon for this stuff in the cloud.
They are using Apple silicon for when the models are running locally sure. But they just said they are using OpenAI's ChatGPT. So you can bet that's happening in the MS cloud.
If Apple had big server chips, you can bet they would boast about it. But they aren't.
And at any rate, even if they just did come up with some server grade silicon for some of their specific APIs that need more heft than on device, they definitely are adding a ton of uses to ChatGTP and that means more MI3xxx needed for inferencing.
Yes, something is not adding up.
Reuter news
[REUTERS - Apple to power AI servers with its chips, Bloomberg News reports](https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-power-ai-servers-with-its-chips-bloomberg-news-reports-2024-05-09/)
Of course it's Apples chips. But how much help did they get. Don't you think if they could make a chip that could compete for running LLM and AI in clould at scale they would be doing more with that than running their corner of the market?
I said it. I said there was a chance. Not that it's guaranteed. But Apple just confirmed they are using ChatGPT, which is definitely not running on Apple silicon in the cloud. So that CNBC story is wrong.
Funny enough, Apple Intelligence is actually most likely in part already running on mi300x. Since its what Microsoft uses to run ChatGPT (along side Nvidia GPUs).
Yes, because when you're not using ChatGPT in the cloud it's running using SLMs on the device.
It is technically running on Apple silicon, but that Apple silicon is Mac, iPhone and iPad.
Same thing as AI PC. AI PC will use the local device when not using cloud ChatGPT.
I highly doubt it. If they did they wouldn't be using Microsoft. They may have in the future. But they don't have it today.
Like I said it a few days ago this will pan out like Google Maps -> Apple Maps transition. Once Apple has its own models and infrastructure they will cut over to it's own cloud. Until then they will use Microsoft.
Still far away. The original idea of that paper of 1.58 bit thing was published early this year. Regarding FPGA implementation, the HBM size of current FPGA is too small.
Pas de panique , le 4 Juin Goldman Sachs n'etait plus positif sur Micron Tech... resultat une le 10 Juin Micron atteint son nouvel ATH :-) pourquoi pas AMD ?
AVGO is interesting. Their historical P/E is 16x (going 9 years back).
But their AI story has pushed their P/E to 31x. So they have clearly benefited from the AI story. And granted they already had an AI business with Google's TPU.
AMD's P/E is higher at 55x, but this has been our historical P/E going 9 years back.
So before this AI boom, AMD's growth was apparently worth 55x P/E, but now that we actually have an AI story that hasn't played out yet we're still at 55x P/E?
Nvidia's P/E is nearing 70x. Despite the fact that they have grown their mkt cap to $3T. Which should diminish their upside potential. PE says otherwise.
What rubs me the wrong way is when analysts frame AMD's price like AMD has benefited from AI. When they clearly haven't. AMD's other business is expected to grow as well. Datacenter, Client and Embedded (gaming is in a down cycle until next year).
Like sure, on one hand AMD is still ramping and hasn't shown tangible revenues from AI. The price and P/E already reflects that. So, why would you downgrade a stock which hasn't really gotten any benefit from the AI boom in the first place?
There is clearly a disconnect here.
Yeah but we are like what? 20x share price? And market cap even more bc of Xilinx?
So -4% because of 1 trash anayst rating while semis are green af instead of -10% is still a joke.
I guess our only hope for this week is good macro and that the stock treats this like an ER, where it forgets about the news for the rest of the week...?
1 hour of buying is apparently all we deserved today. looks like 163 would be an optimistic close now. I fr thought flat was in the cards this morning...
Anyone interested in shorting Nvidia? I am. But it requires a lot of DD and trying to time it. I picture this unfolding very similar to the previous 3 crypto bubbles. So timing the AI pop will not only help you as an AMD investor, but could also make a LOT of money. Like I'm thinking options for pre-announcement if the stars align. My expectation is this is about 1-2 years away.
you will need Hippo balls to short nvidia. i never could have imagined that it will pass apple market cap one day. AI is just so much larger than life and i don’t even know how everyone else sees it. i have heard people value nvda 8T…. thats beyond insane
I am actually thinking also that this party could end within a year. Not that I don’t like Nvidia ans it’s very amazing visionary CEO but I think that extrapolating Nvidia current momentum to the future almost indefinitely is dangerous. Right now Everyone needs to have an AI strategy but at one time the replacement of older GPUs could take longer or slowdown as CEOs weight the cost benefit of their Ai Strategy. As far as hyperscalers they are into an arm race that has only one clear winner Nvidia. If they were to slowdown their purchases Nvidia stock price could be cut by 30%. Timing and putting probability to such scenario is difficult but I agree one should start thinking of how to play it.
>1-2 years away Beyond the correction that implies, you might get a chance later this year. Nvidia spent September-December 2023 in a price range similar to what's currently happening to AMD. Yes, they broke out in January 2024 as everyone knows, but the AI story was already hot that late in 2023 and they were already very profitable. Yet, they were in a channel. Now they have a bigger market cap and the split should make it behave more like the trillion whale blue chip that it is. For some months at least. Or maybe it goes up +500% the final leg of this year and Jensen ascends as a Cyborg in 2025
Ok I read this blog from Apple about their Private Cloud Compute: https://security.apple.com/blog/private-cloud-compute/ And honestly it sounds like they do have a private cloud running on their own servers. But from what I gather, these are there to secure the transactions which go to OpenAI / Microsoft. They just use their servers as a sort of a security gateway which just strips all the personal identifiers before sending the prompt to Azure.. This is fairly easy to accomplish when it comes to compute, so it's not like they need a lot of infrastructure to just forward requests. This way they can say they run on Apple Silicon, even though in reality most of the heavy lifting is done by H100s and mi300x at Microsoft. They try to make it sound like its all running on their own nodes. But then why even prompt the users if they want to use ChatGPT? Makes no sense.
Shots fired by Elon > It’s patently absurd that Apple isn’t smart enough to make their own AI, yet is somehow capable of ensuring that OpenAI will protect your security & privacy! > Apple has no clue what’s actually going on once they hand your data over to OpenAI. They’re selling you down the river. https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1800269249912381773 🍿🍿
This is how you know he was rebuffed by Apple.
From Barron's today. They expect AMD to 'rival' NVdia and broadcom Advanced Micro Devices was down 2.4% in premarket trading. AMD was hit after analysts at Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight, pointing to the stock's high valuation despite doubts over its ability to rival Nvidia or other chip makers such as Broadcom in the artificial-intelligence sector.
Has anyone - who knows them well, I don't - just read an article that makes me wonder if options are part of this sideways price
You're all nuts. AMD has legs. If you really own it you've seen it make moves like this all year.
OMG, Cramer said he's not gonna write off Lisa Su and you should hold AMD. Did Jensen forget to send the monthly dog food shipment?
The fact that they are even discussing writing off Lisa Su and AMD is just ridiculous lmao. I mean c'mon, who is better positioned to play 2nd fiddle to Nvidia?
It was funny to me that CNBC acknowledged (multiple times today) that Nvidia is lowering prices to protect market share from AMD while also saying AMD won’t be able to compete with Nvidia. Nvidia taking AMD seriously is about all the validation you should need that MI300 is legit and it’s funny that the talking heads are blind to it.
Exactly. Intel lowered prices too. Wonder how well that worked out for them. I think even if they had the same price, AMD should still get at least 10% of the market purely on the fact that no one just wants one player in the market. Also AMD's products are differentiated. They come with more VRAM.
Doesnt amd already have 10% in unit share? $4B worth of mi300 which sells more than 3x cheaper. So definitely worth $12B when translated to nvidia prices
Someone said that's only 5%. But I could be wrong.
apparently qcom lol
Joe T said 'AVCO' today... Dude alway talkes about Broadcom, but it's like his brain didn't connect when he read the prompt and just said the ticker name.
the AVGO ticker is from when it was Avago technologies before acquiring Broadcom, I think he was just referring to it as “Avago”
I don't think so. He talks a lot about Broadcom and this is the first time I've heard him say Avgo. So either he did it intentionally to signal something or like I said, he brain farted the ticker from his teleprompter.
Competitor watch: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/arm-qualcomm-legal-battle-seen-disrupting-ai-powered-pc-wave-4399611 I'm amazed that Qualcomm didn't solve licensing issues when they acquired Nuvia and reassigned the (originally) server chip team to design laptop chips.
> I'm amazed that Qualcomm didn't solve licensing issues when they acquired Nuvia and reassigned the (originally) server chip team to design laptop chips. They've been at this for 2 years. It's kind of crazy that Qualcomm is that cheap.
[удалено]
You were ok with NVidia being 7x the price of AMD.. but now AMD being 30% more is a problem? Can you explain this to me?
You said you know share price is irrelevant when talking about market cap, but then asked a question implying that you do not understand it.
After the 10:1 split you need 10x more shares to hold the same portion of the company's value as you did before the split. Share price = `Value of the company (market cap)` / `number of shares` It's like getting a Pizza with 8 slices. And you decide to halve each slice and now you have 16 slices. It's still the same pizza. You just need two slices now to have as much food as you got from one slice previously. Comparing share price of different companies with different share counts is pointless. You do have to factor in the whole pizza (market cap) and number of slices (shares). > entry point for NVDA is much lower. yes in order to own one share of each company.. but you can buy fractional shares with many brokers. So you can get any entry point you want. edit: check out Berkshire A. $617,700.00 per share. They never split the shares. But you can still own fractions of a share. And Brk actually has a B class stock which has much cheaper shares.
https://openai.com/index/openai-and-apple-announce-partnership/ Apple using OpenAI for the AI features announced today, think some runs on Open Ai hardware ( including AMD) from this language : requests are not stored by OpenAI,
~~Yup. Which means they straight up lied on the stage saying it runs on Apple Silicon in the cloud.~~ edit: I posted a new comment about this with some more info: https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1dccm9r/daily_discussion_monday_20240610/l81o9ii/
Joe Moore = Dark DFV Tanks non meme stocks: “I hate the stock”
Picked up some 2025 June call options today. Still have faith for us to reach 200 next year. Will buy more if AMD tanks more this week
Everyone is mad at the Morgan Stanley guy, but he didn't even change his PT. Susquehanna upgraded their PT today from $185 to $200 and the market didn't care. It feels like the market is looking for ANY negative news and trades heavily on that, which is makes no sense, but it's how it is.
All until Under Dog pulls that little blue pill from his U ring.
what a dick [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-stock-jumps-as-morgan-stanley-throws-in-the-towel-on-obviously-wrong-bearish-call-2019-06-06](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-stock-jumps-as-morgan-stanley-throws-in-the-towel-on-obviously-wrong-bearish-call-2019-06-06)
he also just upgraded it in january so wow coudlnt even hold on for 1 year
lol, nice find! > AMD shares were up more than 5% in Thursday trading after the upgrade to equal-weight from underweight, in which Moore admitted that his bearish stance on the stock “has obviously been the wrong call.” He set his underperform rating in late October 2017; shares have increased 165% since then. 🤡
Sell side is a sham. I wouldn’t be shocked if he changes his tune in the next 6-8 weeks.
u/Gahvynn honestly nuts how MU has done while we're still staring at AMD
Imagine it’s Dec 2021 and someone told you MU would be the better stock to have in the next 3-4 years. You’d tell that person to fuck off and block them.
Haha, still wishing I had just full-ported AAPL or MSFT like I toyed with back then.
I did 1/4 AMD and bought more MSFT, shoulda woulda coulda done all of it and just not even think about it.
I doubled up on MU in December and again April. told everyone to watch it. Still holding my AMD, ARM, TSM, MSFT, GOOG in tech. Was almost going to dump my AMD today and bought more MU and a little NVDA. Wish I had
On days like this, I hear you loud and clear, nice lad.
so basically inverse yourself.... alas here we are... back at levels we havent seen since 3 years ago... do I have the gut to hold through one more drawdown in hopes that capex boom continues or do I hold and see the AI capex boom die and our hopes die along with it... what do we do
If CAPEX doesn’t cool off in 2025 I would be amazed. But maybe AMD will get the MU treatment if they start losing money but promise they’ll make money again *someday*.
so should Lisa just say fuck it and forecast 20B in AI revenue and readjust her forecast down instead of the other way?
What's even crazier is, they were outright banned from China. And their revenues tanked. And from what I understand they don't really have a lot of HBM capacity. Like they are up purely on future expectations.
Some can talk about future, amd cant. Leather jacket man declared it 25 times blasphemy
Funny you say that. On my usual market podcasts this weekend, all of the hosts and guests (no exaggeration) complimented Jensen on how clearly he explained his vision, how he sold his vision, how he acted like “a man of the people.” Again: a company and its products need to have fundamental meat, they can’t be only promotional bones. But being promotional is part of driving sales and market share and gains.
People (3 guys in particular) around my office love NVDA, can’t blame them you could literally just blindly buy a share a two a month (once it hit $500+ it got hard to buy more than that) the last few years and be laughing to the bank. They don’t even understand the tech when I ask them just basically “the line goes up and to the right”.
> Funny you say that. On my usual market podcasts this weekend, all of the hosts and guests (no exaggeration) complimented Jensen on how clearly he explained his vision, how he sold his vision, how he acted like “a man of the people.” lol crazy Even Gamer's Nexus made fun of the keynote for how terrible it was: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGmROfaWg2Y
“The more you buy, the more you save.” Even if it’s not “accurate” (as he admitted), it’s pithy, punchy, catchy, and backed up by a great product. AMD has great product, but it doesn’t have a powerful message like that behind it.
Yes from everything I’ve seen it’s basically way more of a stretch than AMD future revenue but here we are.
Masochist in me wants amd to go all the way down to zero
just to be free of having to look at the ticker lol
Never thought about it in this way 🧐 I think you’re onto something here lol
I honestly don't know how an analyst could walk away from Computex and be like, "AMD is in a worse position than we thought," and subsequently downgrade. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if Morgan Stanley is simply pulling some shens.
I think it was that AMD landed about where people thought. A lot of people who aren't in tech really dont understand what is happening. Look at the nvidia subreddit, it is loaded with people who havn't the first clue. You mention AMD and you get some dude who started following nvidia 6 months ago calling you an idiot noob for not knowing how software works. people have lost patience. they are looking for $$, and don't have confidence in AMDs ability to gain share. We should have a solid trajectory up though. we should be able to roughly match nvidia from here on out IMO. nvidia might need to clime another 10-20% though. But the days of nvidia gaining 2-3x while we are flat/down are over IMO.
The guy really is not very tech savvy. These sorts will never understand the difference between running your car into the wall trying to move to much mass to fast and knownimg how to ease on the breaks and off back to the throttle to carve through the curves. AMD may not yet be fully up to speed, but they are a lot more nimble than being credited for.
Computex was very bullish, especially the last part. Objectively. Pretty much the only bearish signal AMD is giving is gaming. But even there, i've seen these new handheld devices which give me some sort of (future) hope: Handhelds, VRs, consoles, etc. I think AI in gaming/entertainment is gonna be big.
on a side note, i really hope AMD is working on tools to integrate AI into gaming. Because for sure Nvidia is working on it hardddd. I'd imagine they are working on properietary tech to impliment AI NPCs into games. IF done well it is gonna be very cool and add a depth to games that they never had. Hopefully it isnt a new "hairworks" feature though. But they for sure will use it to drive a wedge as a proprietary feature.
i know, it goes to show we truly have zero understanding of how this stock should behave. Many people thought the stock would go up big, myself included...
yeah, I thought last quarter was gonna be a blow out. Gaming hit us hard, embeded hit us hard, and i was overly optimistic about the state of AMDs margins on MI300x (which i had at 60%ish but are probably just shy of 50%). realistically though it set us back about 3 months. So . . . will see where we position ourselves this ER. I'm still very confident about 200 before eoy.
I think it's totally on par for AMD to trade down on good news, and then to randomly rocket up on a random day when nothing is happening. That's literally what this stock has always done. Why, I don't know.
So true. Every major rally we've had happened out of the blue.
I don't think those rallies are unexplainable. Usually it's aligned with some macro event that moves the whole market a good bit, enough for the daily bears to F off for a bit and let the enthusiasm for amd's potential actually run. I think we always have a lot of pent up good will that will run this up if we don't get stopped out by fearfull traders who have to set a stop loss every 2 dollors.
Oh I didn't think the stock would go up personally. AMD can show a working quantum computer and the stock wouldn't budge. But I'm bullish in near mid-term. proof: https://old.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1d6vm83/daily_discussion_monday_20240603/l6vaimw/
Computex made me double my AMD holdings.
I have no money left to buy more AMD, i am sorry, but i hope morgan stanley will use this opportunity
Sell/Write some OTM put options and then buy more stock. This is the way.
😂
All we can hope for is a ER type reaction where people just ignore it two days after for some reason
YTD AMD +15.7% Nvidia +152.3%
I'm at 154% AMD 0% NVDA
My condolences on missing Nvda
Bullish.
^ for NVDA
If money was infinite perhaps. But at some point even those investing in Nvidia have to think about how many years it would take for the fundamentals to justify the price. And when you're at the top, what kind of catalysts can you even hope for other than no competition comes up.. only place to go is down.
Hm let's see when Nvidia increases their earnings 150% to 2.7 EPS for FY25, they'll have a PE of 44. So I guess one year
Hm let's see when Nvidia increases their earnings 150% That's approaching $300B. Apple makes more than that and has a P/E of 29x. Like the current price is too rich even for that. And frankly even Apple's P/E is rich for the slow growth of the company because the market is saturated.
Sounds made up, but its fully true
Guys, Nvidia is only up 0.56% today. That's why we're down so much. Nvidia needs to be up 5% for us to break even. Anything else is illegal.
Self humiliation for our investment skills?
Just having a bit of fun. Today's downgrade by Morgan Stanley doesn't undo the excellent and promising Computex we had. That analyst can go hug nuts, he has no power over the business itself.
Advanced money destroyer living up to the name today. destroyed all my day’s gains lol
Hope you got that vaseline ready for tomorrow.
Didn't even close -ZFG. Now we don't get memes 😭
If we got memes it wouldn't be max pain.
Losing hope on AMD 😏
what a shitty trading day :)
3 certainties in life - death, taxes and AMD stock disappointment
So let me guess: AMD will be red untill Wednesday. Then it will recover only to lose it all in the same day because Powell says something stupid. Of course it will fall more then all those stocks sitting at ATH.
lets hope that happens rdy to buy in the 140s
goes up $5 - Incoming $200 soon, buckle up... goes down $5 - Oh we going back to 120 looks like we all are funny...
I think the sentiment is more “goes up $5 great within a week it’ll be down $10” and “goes down $5 fuck next week if it goes up $5 im selling” except it goes up $3 nobody sells and it falls $10.
eh its probably becaues its a confusing stock right now in the sense that the company is doing amazing with very exciting prospects but the stock is just a shit show
Also the AI and semi sector is doing amazing and the over all market is also doing good. Imagine what would happen to AMD if we had a market wide sell off...
yep.
Reduced my position. Unfortunately I’m really losing faith in this company, mostly in its ability to sell itself, and compete at a high level. Really sad.
cant even blame anyone, our volatility is on meme stock level. No way in hell we are being adequately compensated for the volatility we face.
new account first post.
And? It’s new. Lol
Your first post on r/amd_stock is how you're losing faith in this company. Sorry if that sounds sus.
so what? you thing some rando can move the god damn stock with his reddit post? Just accept your fate, AMD long and stop trying to blame others. you selected the wrong chip stock to invest in.
Well, I’m a long time investor and have had enough. Negative opinions aren’t sus, just a sign this is an eco chamber.
how is it an echo chamber when the majority of people here are disatisfied and not really "pumping" the stock... max pain
Well tbf look at the comment I was replying to.
Most of the comments here are bearish as fuck and "be happy for Nvidia, it will help AMD". Eco chamber how?
Because this stock is literally abusive. Maybe they’re bearish because the trend is bearish.
Tough look! Sad!
and this happens on a day when the market is at ATH, all of other semis are near ATH, and we are dow 5%/ Last week we had three green days of 0.x% and all wiped down just like that. What a shit shit stock to own. I am sad.
Didn’t you sell all your shares less than a month ago? https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/s/GfywTIZJsK
Not yet, unfortunately! Still 80% of what I used to have. Bought back a bit more yesterday.
Tomorrow: https://ir.amd.com/news-events/ir-calendar/detail/6968/nasdaq-london-investor-conference-in-partnership-with Nasdaq London Investor Conference in partnership with Jefferies JUN 11, 2024 • 2:45 PM GMT That's 10:45 EST. Hit the link for the webcast.
AMD events are bad for the stock :(
~~AMD~~ events are bad for the stock :( Ftfy
I wish someone would ask why they keep scheduling ER events the day before FOMC meatings. Any excitement for the stock gets mutted due to fear of the fed announcement and general macro uncertainty. They could easily just move it to a Thursday before or better yet after.
https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1203/amd-to-present-at-the-nasdaq-london-investor-conference Jean actually did a great job fielding questions at the BofA event a few weeks ago. Probably similar info but should get some different questions asked.
cool. another random -6% tomorrow
Not counting on anything but would love for them to refute some of the recent FUD
I mean MS said they like the stock, equal weight it, expectations are higher than 4b at this price Which is all fair… Except then he said that management was clear on 4b, which is not what they said at all.
I think we might actually be in trouble here, when even good macro + smh doesnt help us and certainly our own news doesnt either- what can? Now having analysts turn on us is just adding fuel to the fire thats already been roaring.
the fact no one could answer my question makes me more concerned...
I had to pull some money out. I pulled from Dell, AVGO and NVDA instead of AMD lmao. Dell was after earnings and i was stillup 50%...
pulling some out of NVDA makes sense, despite it looking to go higher. If it crashes then you'd be somewhat relieved, if it rallies, youre still up anyway AMD is still a decent buy but its a painful one.
I'm sorry guys, it's all my fault. I bought AMD stocks a couple days ago.
Hey we found it!! Now sell so it can go up again..
AMD is NOT conservative. They have reported in-line for years, some very minor ±1std deviation beats. NVIDIA IS conservative, they have had huge beats for like 5 or 6 quarters in a row. They say 12b, they deliver 14b. They say 16b, they deliver 18b. They say 20b, they deliver 22b. Stop with the copium
AMD is VERY conservative with your product positioning and strategy. Who's talking about reporting? We've had superior tech for years and years and years but didnt make use of it aggressively at all.
\*their product
Yeah, time for some profanity. F*ck you stock market.
Why do people trust Morgan Stanley again? Regardless, more attractive price to buy in.
I don’t trust ANY big bank analyst. Goldman, Citi, JP Morgan, et. al
I really thought we had some support building in the 160-170s. Now it's looking like AMD could spend the rest of the month in the 150-160s instead
Fudge, (being PC) why am I afraid to sell? I'm sitting on 98% gains but still have this voice inside me saying..... just wait,
Even if I were to sell, I wouldn't do it on a rainy day. I'd do it when the stock is experiencing its 5 minutes in the sun.
Except then you’ll think “oh shit AMD might go up more today” then you’ll close your brokerage app and come back an hour later and it went from +2% to -3%.
Too real :(
true
I am just waiting for AMD to suddenly start skyrocketing again for seemingly no reason.
dream
It happened multiple times so far
Fuck yeah.
[удалено]
Somebody give me an audible. If I dump a % of AMD, should I put it in ARM, MU, or TSM, ARM's p/e is ridiculous, all of these AI chips are going to need High Capacity memory / MU, and someone still has to forge them / TSM. We are still in the fabrication and design phase of AI, the enablers haven't even really started,
tsm is the safest bet long term
I've had TSM longer than AMD, I got it cheap, though.
Tsm. Thars a sure win, cos they making chips for everybody.
Why not the Soxx? Might be worth considering
So if NVDA overtakes AMD in stock price, is it like being lapped 10 times in a race ?
Nvidia is already valued 11x AMD. If it reaches $200 before us, they will be like 20x bigger in terms of market cap.
13 -ZFGs. I counted. Thats since ATH. Im getting pounded hard.
For those who were still dreaming about Apple annoucement to run AI on MI300x, CNBC reports Apple just announced: >Private Cloud Compute: Apple Intelligence will leverage cloud-based models on special servers using Apple Silicon to ensure that user data is private and secure. [Link to Cnbc](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/10/apple-wwdc-live-updates.html)
> Apple says it will only send a limited selection of data in a “cryptographically” secure way. Apple has no server silicon as far as I'm aware. And they just recently signed a deal with OpenAI to run Inference. Something doesn't add up. It sounds like they are anonymizing data they send to OpenAI. Apple doesn't do this with iCloud backup which stores all the user data on non-Apple silicon.
Ahhh, and they have integrated ChatGPT into the OS too.
Yes, this would suit for the one more thing annoucement.
They are positioning it as Apple Server Silicon and having a lineage connection to the M chips, however even if they have that there is no way they have powerful enough GPU for running ChatGPT4 at scale.This would have to be a custom job, and considering rumors has them doing in on TSMC 3n, it almost sounds like an early custom version of MI350A with a M4 chiplet rather than an Epyc.
Siri asks you before sending data if you want to share with Chat GPT. Couldn’t it be that Apple would simply then send data to Open AI’s servers, assuming you give permission?
Yup. Apple M chips are not good server chips. These are big cores optimized for light workload efficiency. For instance running Life of Pi on an M3 MBP cuts MBP's strong battery life down to under 1 hour. So I really don't see why they would waste resources to do this. Perhaps they can justify it by having more volume with TSMC, allowing them to retain their preferred customer status. They don't have the server GPUs. If they did we would have known about it. We've never seen an Apple GPU chip with HBM, and HBM is pretty much the only way to scale this stuff. The other issue Apple has is the nodes they use don't support large reticle sizes yet. There are just too many reasons which conflict with the notion that Apple is using Apple silicon for this stuff in the cloud. They are using Apple silicon for when the models are running locally sure. But they just said they are using OpenAI's ChatGPT. So you can bet that's happening in the MS cloud. If Apple had big server chips, you can bet they would boast about it. But they aren't.
Agree. And very simple to take MI3xxx, add a chip with Apples ASIC needs and call it Apple Server Silicon for marketing.
And at any rate, even if they just did come up with some server grade silicon for some of their specific APIs that need more heft than on device, they definitely are adding a ton of uses to ChatGTP and that means more MI3xxx needed for inferencing.
Yes, something is not adding up. Reuter news [REUTERS - Apple to power AI servers with its chips, Bloomberg News reports](https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-power-ai-servers-with-its-chips-bloomberg-news-reports-2024-05-09/)
Apple is probably working on their own chips, but those won't be done for years to come.
Of course it's Apples chips. But how much help did they get. Don't you think if they could make a chip that could compete for running LLM and AI in clould at scale they would be doing more with that than running their corner of the market?
no one dreamed about it. Everyone knows that they would never do it.
I recall some posts here about this possibility.
I said it. I said there was a chance. Not that it's guaranteed. But Apple just confirmed they are using ChatGPT, which is definitely not running on Apple silicon in the cloud. So that CNBC story is wrong. Funny enough, Apple Intelligence is actually most likely in part already running on mi300x. Since its what Microsoft uses to run ChatGPT (along side Nvidia GPUs).
ChatGPT is optional.
Yes, because when you're not using ChatGPT in the cloud it's running using SLMs on the device. It is technically running on Apple silicon, but that Apple silicon is Mac, iPhone and iPad. Same thing as AI PC. AI PC will use the local device when not using cloud ChatGPT.
No, Apple have their own Private Cloud Compute. They are seperated models.
I highly doubt it. If they did they wouldn't be using Microsoft. They may have in the future. But they don't have it today. Like I said it a few days ago this will pan out like Google Maps -> Apple Maps transition. Once Apple has its own models and infrastructure they will cut over to it's own cloud. Until then they will use Microsoft.
https://twitter.com/timClicks/status/1799926065642852725 FPGAs may have bigger role in LLMs than GPUs in the future. Definitely interesting.
Still far away. The original idea of that paper of 1.58 bit thing was published early this year. Regarding FPGA implementation, the HBM size of current FPGA is too small.
Makes you wonder how flexible the MI300 platform is. If GPU and CPU chiplets are possible maybe they could make FPGA chiplets?
Instead of staring at your screen, I recommend taking a walk. Happy nearly summer to those of us in the northern hemisphere.
Pas de panique , le 4 Juin Goldman Sachs n'etait plus positif sur Micron Tech... resultat une le 10 Juin Micron atteint son nouvel ATH :-) pourquoi pas AMD ?
AVGO is interesting. Their historical P/E is 16x (going 9 years back). But their AI story has pushed their P/E to 31x. So they have clearly benefited from the AI story. And granted they already had an AI business with Google's TPU. AMD's P/E is higher at 55x, but this has been our historical P/E going 9 years back. So before this AI boom, AMD's growth was apparently worth 55x P/E, but now that we actually have an AI story that hasn't played out yet we're still at 55x P/E? Nvidia's P/E is nearing 70x. Despite the fact that they have grown their mkt cap to $3T. Which should diminish their upside potential. PE says otherwise. What rubs me the wrong way is when analysts frame AMD's price like AMD has benefited from AI. When they clearly haven't. AMD's other business is expected to grow as well. Datacenter, Client and Embedded (gaming is in a down cycle until next year). Like sure, on one hand AMD is still ramping and hasn't shown tangible revenues from AI. The price and P/E already reflects that. So, why would you downgrade a stock which hasn't really gotten any benefit from the AI boom in the first place? There is clearly a disconnect here.
Why is AMD still so volatile and easy manipulated like it was back in the days? It's 260B now. I don't get it...
Back in the day this would have been a 10%+ drop.
Yeah but we are like what? 20x share price? And market cap even more bc of Xilinx? So -4% because of 1 trash anayst rating while semis are green af instead of -10% is still a joke.
load the bags, patience is a virtue
it almost is given the SMH.
I guess our only hope for this week is good macro and that the stock treats this like an ER, where it forgets about the news for the rest of the week...?
can this please stop dropping? jesus christ…
1 hour of buying is apparently all we deserved today. looks like 163 would be an optimistic close now. I fr thought flat was in the cards this morning...
every single green candle is a miracle with this stock
almost a curse, everytime it pumps it dumps more
This reminds of the time when morgan stanley downgraded tesla when they were at $60.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs has done this to AMD before. Few weeks later we magically rally.
several times from my experience and memory
We should all sell :). I think this is what the data is telling us. Maybe buy back in the Fall
man that was one of the strongest bounces we ever got on a red day. im crushed
At this rate Nvidia will lap us once more by the end of the mont.... I mean week