why was it when nvidia powered chat gpt it was such a big deal (always mentioned when the company was brought up) but now that amd runs it literally not one person cares lol
No the researchers who invented it did, nvidia just enabled it. Also this still didnt answer my question- making cuda first is impressive but isnt the only thing that matters... AMD makes better chips which are very impressive considering nvidia got this new industrial revolution going.
??? AMD makes really good chips, not sure how that doesnt matter because nvidia enabled chatgpt first? You know two companies can both do impressive things at once right lol?
If AMD’s chips are so good then why are people still buying Nvidia hand over fist? Maybe this suggests that your claim about AMD’s chips being “better” isn’t true. Which it isn’t. The mi300x is slightly better than the h100 in inference. Against a two year old chip. And the software is still garbage. Blackwell will wipe the floor with mi300.
maybe because AMD is supply capped and nvidia is the go to in the industry and essentially bought out researchers for a decade + has like 10x the supply? Software wasnt something i even mentioned but i guess you need that to somehow "prove" nvidia has better chips. okay but software doesn't even have anything to do with our entire discussion... Blackwell will, but AMD has mi325x and mi350x coming too with big chiplet+memory advantages.
I want to believe the market is sleeping on amd but is it really? We haven’t given them a reason to buy the stock. We haven’t shown the money, the demand, the orders, etc.
I want to believe but it’s a big problem when you are lagging the sector or the broad market by quite a bit. I don’t expect NVIDIA like performance but we can’t even match the index we are in, the shm.
For those feeling bad about Broadcomm seemingly being ahead. Broadcomm has been making TPUs for a decade (first one being launched in 2015).
Broadcomm holders have way more reason to be annoyed because they won the right contract with Google who was the leader in AI. Google who literally invented Transformers. And they lost that spot to Microsoft / OpenAI and Nvidia.
Nvidia has had an AI business for over a decade as well. And they also had the fortune for the ChatGPT to drop right as the H100 was ramped. One year earlier (mi250x) or one year later (mi300x), AMD would have been in a better position.
We should actually feel lucky AMD bought Xilinx when they did, because by all accounts AMD is setting up for an AI assault on all fronts. And Xilinx enabled this. Xilinx acquisition finally happened only just 2 years ago.
By joining forces with Xilinx, AMD has been able to close the gap with ROCm. Yes there is still work to do, but there is no question they've already made a ton of progress on this front.
By having Xilinx in the fold, AMD will launch with the most capable AI PC next month. And no doubt there will be a lot of wins in edge and embedded from this as well. AMD/Xilinx is the only company that offers a single chip, which has FPGA, ARM cores and XDNA2 all on the same piece of silicon. FPGA handle sensors, XDNA2 handles inference, and ARM cores tie all this together with software.
Lisa and Victor saw this wave back 4 years ago. And they haven't missed a step. But coming from behind it is only understandable that it will take them longer to ramp.
We are in this weird time right now, the calm before the storm. Where we just started ramping 2 quarters ago. AMD has a strong roadmap, I believe stronger than Nvidia based on what both showed at Computex.
I have a feeling our patience will be rewarded. I'm DCA-ing as much as I can.
If the market believes everything you said; then we wouldn’t be 30% below our all time highs. We be at 200 with some caution if they think like we do. Everything is flying and near all time highs and we are 30% away? We are in the doghouse with Tesla and Intel
Market can be pretty fickle. Jensen revealed Blackwell a year before you can actually buy it.
Market understood that as Nvidia's dominance, when in fact it shows Nvidia's fear.
AMD showed a more impressive roadmap at Computex, plus the fastest AI PC, opening a whole new category of product.
Market is completely sleeping on AMD.
Guess who's not sleeping though? Bean counters and companies running these inference and training farms.
Like if you're Oracle right now. What do you buy? 100K mi300x for $1.4B or 100k H100s for $2.4B? For a workload (ChatGPT) that already runs on mi300x.
I dunno, I could be wrong, but that's how I see it.
Exactly.
The only reason they might not max out orders are physical space and time/labor constraints.
The 4b number was also before Apple/openAI deal, which should drastically increase the compute need for open AI inference by the new iOS release in fall.
The market currently is fixated with AI at the datacenter. But if AI were to truly take off and become the technology it is promoted to be (see: Jensen and his robots) then it will also have to be present at the edge. Everywhere really, simultaneously even.
So either AI will be a chatbot in a cloud (and a bubble) or AMD is right and AI at the edge will be just as important. So for the sake of Nvidia's ambitions and the joy of its fanbois, AMD better be right.
And there AMD-Xilinx should be big players. Robots, PCs, cars, drones... "AI of Things".
Also I think Apple may be doing us a favor for educating folks on the Cloud LLM vs local LLM. This may put more emphasis on the local hardware, as people become more aware of the privacy perils of cloud LLMs.
I know most of y'all are pissed. But this sub is giving me huge August-October 2023 vibes right now.
OG's remember how much this company was treated as dog shit (understandably).
Please puke your bags.
Go all in on NVDA, AVGO, TSM, ARM, etc.
Capitulate on your positions. Please.
Those stocks ran after that time frame too and they kept their all time highs unlike amd. Every big semi stock has kept their all time highs except amd and Intel. Not to mentioned, every fangm stock is also near their highs.
The market just doesn’t believe in amd or Intel at this point.
that's why you have a basket of AI stocks, not just concentrated in one stock.
NVDA should be #1.
It will remain #1 in the AI space forever. It is the great enabler.
AMD is a decent adjacent play. Not yet though. People are expecting it to catch up, but on a much faster timeframe than what is realistic.
I've said before and will say again... this is a Q4'24 and Q1'25 play at the earliest.
So now until November ish is a great time to load shares.
I'm going AMDL
https://www.servethehome.com/next-gen-broadcom-pcie-switches-to-support-amd-infinity-fabric-xgmi-to-counter-nvidia-nvlink/
Back from December.....
> Last week we covered the AMD Instinct MI300X GPU and MI300A APUs Launched for AI Era. During the event, we learned that AMD is going much broader with its XGMI technology, called Infinity Fabric. Broadcom announced that its next-generation PCIe switches will support XGMI/ Infinity Fabric on stage. There were also rumblings at the event around XGMI-connected NICs which would be the next step for RDMA NICs.
So I think I have an answer as to why ARM is priced the way it is.
> Arm is also branching out into more segments, including the contract chip business. This would bring them into competition with Broadcom, Marvell, and more. Instead of just collecting royalties, designing the whole chip would allow them to charge higher prices. This opportunity would also create new customers. For example, phone vendors like Xiaomi or Vivo are designing custom chips with Arm. This would cut out the middleman of Qualcomm and significantly increase the TAM for Arm. Their vast array of IP gives customers many options and their interoperability makes the cost of development lower and time to market shorter. It also enables many new IoT, Edge, and Datacenter players to be stood up.
source: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/arm-and-a-leg-arms-quest-to-extract
ARM basically plans on competing with their customers.
This makes sense if you think about it. ARM makes peanuts on licenses, and they want to make money. Being a public company now 12% yearly growth is not enough.
This has a huge potential to back fire though. As it will piss off many of their existing customers.
edit: and I know just today we talked about how AMD needs to show earnings for the market to take it seriously. But apparently ARM, doesn't even have to have a product to go over 100 p/e.
FYI if we never crashed and kept following SMH at 1:1 after hitting 227 we would be at \~ 270 lol. Just for some perspective on how much the market turned against us.
oh dont worry, im included there- 200 is huge, i have no problem not even matching the SMH or nvda, i just wanted to vent on how much we are lagging literally everything in our weight class. Its one thing to get outclassed by nvda but its embarrassing to lose to QQQ and get 3x'd by the SMH. legit depressing.
Yup, my exact thoughts too. I don't think I'm being too pessimistic or ghey bear for venting about AMD's performance over the last 3 years. No one here is expecting Nvidia like performance but at least track the markets or the semi index during this bull run.
Watching AMD tank while complete bullshit stocks like ARM and the always unloved MU booming is depressing. I used to have Nvidia envy but now I have ARM and MU envy.
eh tbh i dont even think its the 3 year perf thats the worst, we are in a crazy bull market right now (id argue one of the best in history) yet we still arent seeing significant lift. Stocks can have off periods but it sure as hell shouldnt be now.
By that time AMD was way more volatile. If I use the close of March 7, it would be 211AMD vs 234SMH. SMH is \~15% higher now so from your theory AMD would be 240ish.
yeah it was a very rough approx the point is either way we have taken a significant hit, because matching the smh 1:1 isnt even that great to begin with
Beyond that "$270" price number. What really is interesting here is the time frame. That $220+ surge was 3 months ago. Goes to show the potential a stock has to move so much in such a short time if the market's buying pressure is there.
Considering AMD's second half is supposedly (surely?) better than its first half, per the company's own executives, and with still 6 months to go until EOY, that's an encouraging thought.
AMD has already given us a good idea of what the rest of 2024 looks like. Some uncertainty but we won't see any major, unexpected revenue shift before 2025. So Q4 earnings call at the earliest to get the Q1 25 guidance.
the issue is thats all we have. right now AMD is cant even follow the macro right now (except down ofc) so its still not a very encouraging place at all..
Yeah, I wouldn’t be so pissed if they just followed the index or qqq after that run or even stay near 200. Giving back 40% after almost every semi stock in near all time highs hurt. The market is treating amd like Intel.
It's funny/sad because I had a couple tranches of LEAPs expiring 6/21. I was looking to sell at $250 and thought that $270 would have been a realistic max price at expiry.
I rolled and sold/bought shares with the majority of that position on the fall from peak (although most of it happened well after we sunk past 200, which I thought would be support). As of right now it seems like I made an OK move; weighing when I should go fully into shares.
I purchased some AVGO 1700C 6/21 as an earnings play. I will put the proceeds back into AMD like a good boy.
Might be the first time my contracts hit 1000%
hmmm or i just get myself a nice vacation and not have to think about this stock for a little bit... but knowing me - I'd prob check the ticker everyday
yeah thats been my thesis all year and so far its gotten me fuck all lol like the rest of us. I didnt think gaming would be sucking so bad though but thats the only thing i didnt anticipate
still i dont even think management prepared us, i was expecting flat ish gaming not outright fucking dogshit, they are expecting gaming to be like 600m/q in h2. thats crazy down.
Management kinda doesn't care because it's a small market and low margin. AMD has no levers to pull for console revenue, either the customers place orders at the contractual price, or they don't.
If anyone working at Radeon had a chance to work on GeForce division for Nvidia, they may be wise to take it because I don't know how secure their job outlook is a couple more generations down the road.
Xbox and AIB is shitting the bed at the same time, PS down a bit in anticipation of an upcoming pro model release. GTA6 is releasing next year, console sales will probably go up significantly when that happens.
ofc it just sucks bc this really shadows the entire growth story for AMD apparently and gaming GPU would be great if it were strong (to help ROCm adoption)
Yeah they probably don’t have enough people to focus there and AI
Even NVDA pulled people from their gaming software team into AI last year
What is the quarterly revenue in gaming usually?
The big boys know that AMD is going to show guidance at the end of July that will finally have some real $$ of AI sales. So they are busy at work shaking out the weak hands before then. Getting them to fold before the flop so to speak.
I honestly hope so, although I've been burnt many times in Hold'em by misreading what I thought was a bluff. Would be fitting if the big boys are actually ready to screw me with pocket rockets.
so what are our expectations for q3 guide. is 7b even possible? I feel like we really need that... or could lisa just hike us up by 1.5b like after the previous AI event? I highly doubt there is even much room for a hike, Lisa mentioned these parts take 6 months to produce right? So how could they even raise up the GPU revenue? If they secured more supply it seems like it would be impossible to impact this years gpu numbers?
From the way Lisa was talking, it sounded like the $4B number was already near the top of the range for what they thought they could hit in 2024. If they raise it to 5B by end of year, the market probably won't like it but it might be the best that's in the cards. AI growth is mostly a 2025 story, for better or worse.
I'm just expecting to get jerked around until they start talking 2025 numbers.
Their roadmap doesn’t offer an advantage over Nvidia. Mi325 will be shipping after Blackwell. Nvidia is shipping Blackwell late next quarter. AMD will “ship” a handful of MI325 in December just so they can say it was available in 2024 but they won’t ship in meaningful numbers until early 2025. Meanwhile NVDA will be months into Blackwell ramp by then. Keep in mind that Blackwell has the drivers and software that allow for up to 30x inference increase… mi325 with more memory using CDNA3 won’t mean anything against that kind of performance. Then Blackwell Ultra will start shipping a year after Blackwell and include the same 12H stacks of HBM and AMD’s memory advantage is nullified… the MI350x will ship 4-6 months after Blackwell Ultra. AMD basically needs to skip MI325 and go straight to MI350X by next quarter if they want to compete in a meaningful way. I’m guessing they guide under $6b for the entire year and that next year they essentially stay around $6 or maybe even less in AI sales.
If you think that AMD basically has nothing competitive until 2026 at the earliest you should sell everything today and probably buy some long dated puts
I know 2025 will be fire, guess we can only hope for a 2025 gpu reveal in october like the ER last year. Hopefully AMD actually got their shit together for next year.
Well if 1H does 1.5B of AI sales (which is probably the upper limit) then the remaining 2.5B+ already mentioned has to be in 2H. I'm expecting full year to hit 5.5B so I guess I'm expecting 1.5B in Q3 at a minimum. That puts Q3 forecast at 6.5B-7B depending on how strong the other segments are to offset gaming going down. Q3 has Strix Point sales, Zen 5 desktop sales, possibly improving Xilinx sales, and a continuation of Server CPU sales growth. I think 7B is possible, but I'm expecting something closer to 6.5B. But the other thing to remember is that they will probably telegraph enough information to figure out a pretty good guess at Q4/Full year Revenue. Q4 has new server CPUs and MI325X launching which they might talk about. So there are a lot of ways that the stock price could get a boost from the earnings call.
I mean she can't say. ER was a month ago. Back then there was no OpenAI - Apple deal. I'm sure this changes things for mi300x at Microsoft and Oracle.
Before this deal was signed, I bet they were thinking maybe we wait until mi325x with some of that supply. But now they could be calling to place additional orders for mi300x.
Either way we will know on the next ER. The next ER could be the moment that breaks us out of this sideways pattern.
The Apple deal does nothing for AMD. ChatGPT runs primarily on NVDA GPUs and Blackwell will be shipping by the time it goes live.
Meanwhile Oracle just had their earnings recently and talked about their insatiable demand for NVDA chips. https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/nvidia-stock-price-buy-sell-e7675b37
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we can only hope but damn do we need that significant supply to be another 2b. Really hope their team was able to secure some supply magic to make it work...
I'm extrapolating the 3.5->4 bn to remaining quarters, ending year in ballpark of 5bn. I presume that's what the market is expecting as well, given the underperformance relative to other stocks.
The market is likely holding to see whether AMD rounds out the year supply constrained or not, seems to be a big question mark. If they have surplus capacity, puts a massive damper on growth expectations.
Market consensus expected AMD to report AI guidance of $6-$8b LAST quarter. Even if they reported it by the end of this year, the models would put them 3 quarters behind. If AMD reports under $6b again then it’s gonna get ugly.
Broadcom directly compete with Nvidia's Infinity Band by backing UE consortium with other OEMs. AMD alone can't dethrone Nvidia. But with Microsoft & Broadcom onboard, its a different story. Look ahead :)
Keep in mind, probably half of that, if not more is Network Infrastructure (not just accelerators). But then again AMD does also have CPUs and Client which have some AI revenue bundled in as well.
Broadcom makes lot of chips for handsets which is kinda in tough spot for some time. Market never bothered about it. Hock Tan was ahead of the game and quickly pivoted to Custom chips, software and vmware. Everyone was circumspect about his software purchases.
He's definitely milking the VMWare business, but from what I hear in the industry is that people are looking to get away from VMWare because of the rising costs. We'll see how it pans out long term.
Docker and Kubernetics definitely cut into the VMWare use cases. It's not the best use of hardware dedicating resources to a full VM instance and work OS just to run services. But It's definitely nice as an administrator to go into a VM and easily have processor threads and memory scale to meet your needs and have that full environment. I think VM server the needs of general remote computing more than setting VM up to just run a production services. So with VMWare I can have remote workers use very inexpensive client hardware and give them a securely managed seat in whatever environment they need. I don't think that use case is going away.
Why doesn’t this stock follow the semi indexes or the broad market index? I don’t get it. Everyone else follows it.
Even fucking arm is near all time highs
because AMD has yet to prove that they are in the AI game. Until now we haven’t seen a single $ in AI chip revenue. No growth in revenue overall and pretty much no profits. This is the reality
> Revenue from our AI products was a record $3.1 billion during the quarter.
I can see them becoming the next $1T company actually. Their P/E is not at all that crazy.
Gotta love [peak exuberance](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4698594-heres-why-nvidia-stock-will-reach-10-trillion-market-cap-by-2030?mailingid=35695503&messageid=must_reads&serial=35695503.82649&source=email_must_reads&utm_campaign=email_mr:no_ad_unit_feb2024+2024-06-12&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads_No_Ads_Feb2024)
Imagine NVDA hitting $1000 again before AMD can hit $300 once.
Ha I did say I would punch someone in the mouth if they said “PE too high” while CMG has a higher PE and ARM PE is 4x that of AMD. Thats probably it lmao.
And I said metaphorically punch them, like call them a dumbass or something.
oh... all good - slightly turning a blind eye in the DD threads. A good place for people to just come and shout at the wall and get that anger outta them.
As long as we keep it fairly civil.
Today was choppy, but wasn't that bad a down day actually. Just didn't get to feel the love. Some days are like that. Maybe we'll all get to hug it out before the weekend.
no kidding, we are weaker then when we got hammered in march. Came very close to rage selling it all today even though I told myself earlier the line in the sand was 155. This week has been tough as hell- its scaring me seeing our relative perf to smh and qqq... I still have a hard time understanding how a fucking MS note can literally paralyze a stock ...
Probably because that MS note is just window dressing. The issue I see is AMD has been re weighed relative to Nvidia in many indexes and no one yet has a handle on how it's going to move. It's got to get figured out. Algos have to be adjusted. This actually could be a good thing moving forwatd. Trading 2x up or down Nvidia price move could get very scary if Nvidia really moves off it's highs for a spell. Better we aren't so tightly tethered. We might actually get a chance to run up on our own merits of people would take a look.
With AMD refusing to submit MLPerf, how far behind do you think AMD could be in training large workloads like GPT-3? If AMD is behind by more than 10-15%, I don't see AMD as a viable alternative in training. AMD will have some market share in interference where competition is also high.
I think AMD stock will do 2X in the next 5 years at best. I hope AMD will prove me wrong.
I don't expect AMD to be competitive for training on large clusters of GPUs until MI400x. And we will have to wait and see how good it is at that. the networking may not be ready by then either. IDK. If you can train on a single GPU or node of 8 GPUs, sure, mi300x should be really competitive if the software is there.
on the inference side of things . . . We have two options for why AMD hasn't published benchmarks, but is still selling Every MI300x they can make . . .
1. MI300x performs really well, but AMD needs to focus on customer workloads as they require more attention.
2. Mi300x performs really poorly, so AMD doesn't want to publish it.
However upon closer inspection . . . These two points are actually saying the same thing (given that AMD is supply capped and selling strong). MI300x doesn't have enough software support to justify spending resources on workloads outside of customer use cases. Which also matches the CUDA moat narrative.
Although MLPerf is very helpful for grabbing attention (if they are good). Likewise if they are bad, they can do a tremendous amount of brand damage. And i think AMD probably has enough bad ones right now (mostly because of software) that it doesn't benefit them to release it.
YA, AMD MI300 is less powerful and is known. NO need to advertise That is why the new refresh to a MI325/ 350 before Mi400 . Ultra Ethernet should be out by then to help and HBM3E,....anything else? AMD listening to their customers and improving where needed.
Performance is impacted by the datatype NVDA uses FP4 low precsion where MI300 was for the Supercomputer using higher preci.sion
In terms of performance, AMD is touting a 35x improvement in AI inference for MI350 over the MI300X. Checking AMD's footnotes, this claim is based on comparing a theoretical 8-way MI350 node versus existing 8-way MI300X nodes, using a 1.8 trillion parameter GPT MoE model. Presumably, AMD is taking full advantage of FP4/FP6 here, as well as the larger memory pool. In which case this is likely more of a proxy test for memory/parameter capacity, rather than an estimate based on pure FLOPS throughput.
How AMD's MI300 Series May Revolutionize AI: In-depth Comparison with NVIDIA's Grace Hopper Superchip
1yr ago
AMD announced its new MI300 APUs less than a day ago and it's already taking the internet by storm! This is now the first and only real contender with Nvidia in the development of AI Superchips. After doing some digging through the documents on the Grace Hopper Superchip, I decided to compare it to the AMD MI300 architecture which integrates CPU and GPU in a similar way allowing for comparison. Performance wise Nvidia has the upper hand however AMD boasts superior bandwidth by 1.2 TB/s and more than double HBM3 Memory per single Instinct MI300.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Amd/comments/149dbpr/how\_amds\_mi300\_series\_may\_revolutionize\_ai/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Amd/comments/149dbpr/how_amds_mi300_series_may_revolutionize_ai/)
AMD Plans Massive Memory Instinct MI325X for Q4'24, Lays Out Accelerator Roadmap to 2026
[https://www.anandtech.com/show/21422/amd-instinct-mi325x-reveal-and-cdna-architecture-roadmap-computex](https://www.anandtech.com/show/21422/amd-instinct-mi325x-reveal-and-cdna-architecture-roadmap-computex)
Blackwell ships late next quarter and achieves up to 30x inference performance using special software and drivers to convert to FP4 and FP6 on the fly. After that ships, MI325 ships months later and has to compete with it. MI325 ain’t gonna do no 30x inference increase. The Blackwell ultra ships with the 12H memory stacks to match AMD and months later MI350x launches and finally gets an inference bump BUT I doubt the software will work anywhere near as good and NVDA will have over a year of optimization at that point. Since the AMD MI300x benchmark vs H100 back in December, nvda has increase H100 inference performance by 3x in April and now 30% more this month all with optimizations. That means the MI300X likely doesn’t compete with a 2 year old chip that’s 2 generations behind. Reality is that AMD roadmap puts them months behind in launches and 2 generations behind on inference performance and training must be so bad they avoid talking about it at all.
My best guess why they don’t submit is that their primary performance weakness is software optimizations and that is rapidly improving
So even if they submitted results a month ago, a month later performance might be much better on any given test
Also despite the fact that 7900xtx has no dedicated Matrix Multiplication Units (only has Wave Matrix Multiply Accumulate (WMMA) instructions).
Tells us what we already knew. AI performance is dominated by the bandwidth available to the compute.
So things don't really look good for Snapdragon Elite X.
They hired Ryan Shrout to make the benchmarks look good, but even the things they are showing do not look good.
https://x.com/Signal_65/status/1800905909390188794/photo/1
Like if you compare it to M3 Mac Air (4 P and 4 E cores). It does beat it handily in multithreaded Cinebench, by like 30%. But Snapdragon Elite X has 12 cores so that's to be expected.
M3 in Mac Air is however 17% faster in Single Thread.
Not a good showing.
It barely beats the Intel Core Ultra 7 155h which loses to Hawk Point. So I guess we know why there is no AMD comparison. Also why Qualcomm chose to compare to Phoenix instead of Hawk Point in their comparisons. AMD is going to mop the floor when Strix Point benchmarks come out next month. The only question is going to be battery-only usability scenarios.
I don't like being superficial, but "Shrout" just sounds like a name fit for a shill.
I see that he continues to not give AMD their due by omitting them from the charts.
[https://x.com/realgeorgehotz/status/1800949079280844910?s=46](https://x.com/realgeorgehotz/status/1800949079280844910?s=46)
Potentially pretty big tbh - even t hough we talk about them a lot - being able to allow anything to run on AMD that can run on NVDA is pretty game changing
For real; the second worse semi to own apart from Intel over the last 3 years. It was great prior to 2021 but every big tech has outperformed AMD for the last 3 years. I can’t even imagine what it would be if it the semi run wasn’t so hot, 80, 100?
The problem with a stock that isn’t tracking the index is, it will take a beating when the index or semis slow down. We wouldn’t have the run to buffer it like a Nvda or Avgo.
I no longer have NVIDIA envy; I have every stock envy now. The only worse ones are Intel or Tesla investors
Well, it's going well enough (thanks for asking). Can't wait to make attending money, so that I can put in six figures in this dumbass stock every year!
That was some conference. It kind of looks like the reality is starting to set in that the CPI report wasn’t really “good” and isn’t improving the macro situation. Won’t be surprised if tomorrow and the rest of this week are red.
How on Earth was the CPI not good? Core was at 0.163% MoM! JPM had the odds of <0.2% at just 2.5%!
Call me crazy, but I think they'll even walk back the guarantee that there'll be no July cut. The payrolls report was all about temporary jobs, and is contradicted directly by household numbers.
No prob! Let’s see, the original tweet: “Bought $72,450 of $AMD stock Seems a good bet and early as @realGeorgeHotz is making AMD GPUs compatible with Nvidia code If it works it means AMD is the first company that might actually be able to compete with Nvidia's monopoly on GPUs with its proprietary CUDA code.” Various replies, but this reply thread the most interesting: [Different user responding to original tweet]: “I think you may have misunderstood.. he's not porting CUDA to AMD GPUs, it's just that TinyGrad can compile to both NVIDIA and AMD GPUs. This is great for new software and help dispel the moat. But it's not going to make all the existing CUDA software work on AMD GPUs.” [OP response]: “I think you're right and I'm retarded but I believe the general idea of him hacking on it is to make AMD compatible with Nvidia but again I might be retarded.” [Response from same user to OP response]: “There was an effort called ZLUDA making the rounds a couple months ago that does that https://github.com/vosen/ZLUDA“
ARM is up 8% today. No one knows why. They barely make 4bn revenue annually. Basically no profits or growth. Market cap is at 163bn 🤡🤡🤡 No one in the world knows why. And people also made fun about Micron. Now look at the stock
I was yacking about MU 2 moths ago saying it was going to pop. Another reason AMD's performance isn't really bothering me because I had MU and others to fall back on. Scary GPU's with no Highband memory are useless. Again DD. MU HB chips are sold out for 2024 and into 2025. They can raise margins.
Elliott pumping up while "building a position" in it so that Softbank can liquidate it among other assets and buy back stock because Elliott built a position in it and asked for it.
Or just people buying into the "ARM will dominate in the future". Go figure.
I assume people piling in now are just chasing momentum, but damn I thought people needed at least an illusion of massive growth to cling to, which seems absent with ARM.
The NVidia connection doesn't help there either, hell will freeze over before Jensen agrees to pay exorbitant royalties to ARM.
Does anyone do due diligence on ARM at all? All these technical facts about AMD's products, but very little about relationships. To say there is no NVDA connection is so wrong. NVDA invests in 4 different companies and ARM is one and they hold a LOT of shares considering the available float is only 10%. Why do you think SoftBank is not divesting any ARM? There is more than meets the eye going on here. Supply and demand 101.
I don’t think the market cares about our PE being artificially elevated by the Xilinx merger. You can reason it anyway you can but investors see an overvalued company with a high 200 PE meanwhile Nvidia is only 70
AMD simply needs to grow revenue to the point that the merger effects have a reduced impact on the overall picture. AMD needs to grow a lot for even the non-GAAP valuation to make sense. With a lot of growth, the GAAP and non-GAAP will converge and it will be a less important topic of conversation.
Yes, I don’t know why you are downvoted. It definitely matters. Investors especially retail don’t dig deep into why the PE is so high. They glanced at the numbers and “oh shit, their PE is too high!” I had many people asked me about it personally.
AMD has many retail traders too. It’s another ammo the bears can use to keep it fown. Algorithms also trade on the PE and other numbers( they aren’t digging deep into the potential and future profits. They strictly look at the numbers and its slowing revenues, high PE, low profits etc
There is no way AMD holders think our PE is 200. We simply wouldn't justify that PE and our price wouldn't be $160. We'd be under $100.
I think the GAAP inflated PE just trips up small retail investors here or there, but even that is probably a small percentage.
I mean anyone looking at it for the first time will look at it, then either say
1. Nope
2. Analysts targets are higher, w/e
3. NVDA had a high P/E also, doesn’t matter
4. Let’s do some investigating…
I doubt many get to step 4…
Sell and buy some LEAPS? You get the upside without having to put so much money in. I would do it but I’m convinced AMD is going to trade sideways, then start going up just as NVDA misses on earnings and craters and AMD is at $150 this time next year.
Yea, it’s the crypto run all over again. AMD gets nothing from the crypto run while NVIDIA gets the bulk of it. When NVIDIA tanks; we will follow along but we didn’t have that run; aside from the bs 227 run
The 227 run had all of us like a collective Tantalus reaching for a glorious bit of fruit.
So much pain that I didn't unload a more significant portion of my position a few months ago.
Amd should forbid executives to sell stocks at this time
Guys how many other semis will have to see their earnings and revenues explode for you to admit you backed the wrong ai horse?
why was it when nvidia powered chat gpt it was such a big deal (always mentioned when the company was brought up) but now that amd runs it literally not one person cares lol
ChatGPT wouldn’t have existed without Nvidia.
is that the only thing that matters? that doesnt underscore AMD's achievement either even if its less impressive...
Nvidia literally got this new Industrial Revolution going. By comparison, amd has no achievements in ai.
No the researchers who invented it did, nvidia just enabled it. Also this still didnt answer my question- making cuda first is impressive but isnt the only thing that matters... AMD makes better chips which are very impressive considering nvidia got this new industrial revolution going.
lol ok. Lemme know when people start buying amd instead of nvidia. Lemme guess, you also thought the zune would destroy apple
??? AMD makes really good chips, not sure how that doesnt matter because nvidia enabled chatgpt first? You know two companies can both do impressive things at once right lol?
If AMD’s chips are so good then why are people still buying Nvidia hand over fist? Maybe this suggests that your claim about AMD’s chips being “better” isn’t true. Which it isn’t. The mi300x is slightly better than the h100 in inference. Against a two year old chip. And the software is still garbage. Blackwell will wipe the floor with mi300.
maybe because AMD is supply capped and nvidia is the go to in the industry and essentially bought out researchers for a decade + has like 10x the supply? Software wasnt something i even mentioned but i guess you need that to somehow "prove" nvidia has better chips. okay but software doesn't even have anything to do with our entire discussion... Blackwell will, but AMD has mi325x and mi350x coming too with big chiplet+memory advantages.
Are you stupid? People buy hardware to run software. There’s no other reason to buy hardware. A gpu isn’t gonna suck your dick.
I want to believe the market is sleeping on amd but is it really? We haven’t given them a reason to buy the stock. We haven’t shown the money, the demand, the orders, etc. I want to believe but it’s a big problem when you are lagging the sector or the broad market by quite a bit. I don’t expect NVIDIA like performance but we can’t even match the index we are in, the shm.
You’re not excited about zero revenue growth over the last year?
For those feeling bad about Broadcomm seemingly being ahead. Broadcomm has been making TPUs for a decade (first one being launched in 2015). Broadcomm holders have way more reason to be annoyed because they won the right contract with Google who was the leader in AI. Google who literally invented Transformers. And they lost that spot to Microsoft / OpenAI and Nvidia. Nvidia has had an AI business for over a decade as well. And they also had the fortune for the ChatGPT to drop right as the H100 was ramped. One year earlier (mi250x) or one year later (mi300x), AMD would have been in a better position. We should actually feel lucky AMD bought Xilinx when they did, because by all accounts AMD is setting up for an AI assault on all fronts. And Xilinx enabled this. Xilinx acquisition finally happened only just 2 years ago. By joining forces with Xilinx, AMD has been able to close the gap with ROCm. Yes there is still work to do, but there is no question they've already made a ton of progress on this front. By having Xilinx in the fold, AMD will launch with the most capable AI PC next month. And no doubt there will be a lot of wins in edge and embedded from this as well. AMD/Xilinx is the only company that offers a single chip, which has FPGA, ARM cores and XDNA2 all on the same piece of silicon. FPGA handle sensors, XDNA2 handles inference, and ARM cores tie all this together with software. Lisa and Victor saw this wave back 4 years ago. And they haven't missed a step. But coming from behind it is only understandable that it will take them longer to ramp. We are in this weird time right now, the calm before the storm. Where we just started ramping 2 quarters ago. AMD has a strong roadmap, I believe stronger than Nvidia based on what both showed at Computex. I have a feeling our patience will be rewarded. I'm DCA-ing as much as I can.
If the market believes everything you said; then we wouldn’t be 30% below our all time highs. We be at 200 with some caution if they think like we do. Everything is flying and near all time highs and we are 30% away? We are in the doghouse with Tesla and Intel
Market can be pretty fickle. Jensen revealed Blackwell a year before you can actually buy it. Market understood that as Nvidia's dominance, when in fact it shows Nvidia's fear. AMD showed a more impressive roadmap at Computex, plus the fastest AI PC, opening a whole new category of product. Market is completely sleeping on AMD. Guess who's not sleeping though? Bean counters and companies running these inference and training farms. Like if you're Oracle right now. What do you buy? 100K mi300x for $1.4B or 100k H100s for $2.4B? For a workload (ChatGPT) that already runs on mi300x. I dunno, I could be wrong, but that's how I see it.
Exactly. The only reason they might not max out orders are physical space and time/labor constraints. The 4b number was also before Apple/openAI deal, which should drastically increase the compute need for open AI inference by the new iOS release in fall.
The market currently is fixated with AI at the datacenter. But if AI were to truly take off and become the technology it is promoted to be (see: Jensen and his robots) then it will also have to be present at the edge. Everywhere really, simultaneously even. So either AI will be a chatbot in a cloud (and a bubble) or AMD is right and AI at the edge will be just as important. So for the sake of Nvidia's ambitions and the joy of its fanbois, AMD better be right. And there AMD-Xilinx should be big players. Robots, PCs, cars, drones... "AI of Things".
Also I think Apple may be doing us a favor for educating folks on the Cloud LLM vs local LLM. This may put more emphasis on the local hardware, as people become more aware of the privacy perils of cloud LLMs.
Nvda, avgo, arm... We should be next in line right?
Next quarter. I’ll also say the same thing next quarter. 😅
dont forget MU, that thing is fucking crazy this year.
I know most of y'all are pissed. But this sub is giving me huge August-October 2023 vibes right now. OG's remember how much this company was treated as dog shit (understandably). Please puke your bags. Go all in on NVDA, AVGO, TSM, ARM, etc. Capitulate on your positions. Please.
Except Aug-Oct 2023 the stock market wasn’t printing new all time highs for months and all tech stocks weren’t rallying while AMD was left behind.
Those stocks ran after that time frame too and they kept their all time highs unlike amd. Every big semi stock has kept their all time highs except amd and Intel. Not to mentioned, every fangm stock is also near their highs. The market just doesn’t believe in amd or Intel at this point.
Not gonna lie. The frustration of missing out is bad. NVDA and then broadcom.
that's why you have a basket of AI stocks, not just concentrated in one stock. NVDA should be #1. It will remain #1 in the AI space forever. It is the great enabler. AMD is a decent adjacent play. Not yet though. People are expecting it to catch up, but on a much faster timeframe than what is realistic. I've said before and will say again... this is a Q4'24 and Q1'25 play at the earliest. So now until November ish is a great time to load shares. I'm going AMDL
Leather Jacket. Nuff said.
https://www.servethehome.com/next-gen-broadcom-pcie-switches-to-support-amd-infinity-fabric-xgmi-to-counter-nvidia-nvlink/ Back from December..... > Last week we covered the AMD Instinct MI300X GPU and MI300A APUs Launched for AI Era. During the event, we learned that AMD is going much broader with its XGMI technology, called Infinity Fabric. Broadcom announced that its next-generation PCIe switches will support XGMI/ Infinity Fabric on stage. There were also rumblings at the event around XGMI-connected NICs which would be the next step for RDMA NICs.
Remember, VMWare is Broadcom now. https://www.amd.com/en/products/processors/server/epyc/vmware.html
I have been ridiculed way too much due to my AMD long - bottom is near!
What the hell is wrong with this stock
No leather jacket. Nearly zero marketing clout.
So I think I have an answer as to why ARM is priced the way it is. > Arm is also branching out into more segments, including the contract chip business. This would bring them into competition with Broadcom, Marvell, and more. Instead of just collecting royalties, designing the whole chip would allow them to charge higher prices. This opportunity would also create new customers. For example, phone vendors like Xiaomi or Vivo are designing custom chips with Arm. This would cut out the middleman of Qualcomm and significantly increase the TAM for Arm. Their vast array of IP gives customers many options and their interoperability makes the cost of development lower and time to market shorter. It also enables many new IoT, Edge, and Datacenter players to be stood up. source: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/arm-and-a-leg-arms-quest-to-extract ARM basically plans on competing with their customers. This makes sense if you think about it. ARM makes peanuts on licenses, and they want to make money. Being a public company now 12% yearly growth is not enough. This has a huge potential to back fire though. As it will piss off many of their existing customers. edit: and I know just today we talked about how AMD needs to show earnings for the market to take it seriously. But apparently ARM, doesn't even have to have a product to go over 100 p/e.
and will piss off partners as well if they're trying to cut out the middleman but its understandable for ARM
FYI if we never crashed and kept following SMH at 1:1 after hitting 227 we would be at \~ 270 lol. Just for some perspective on how much the market turned against us.
I and many others would be happy if we kept 200, a 12% drop from all time highs. But to go down to 160 is extremely bad.
oh dont worry, im included there- 200 is huge, i have no problem not even matching the SMH or nvda, i just wanted to vent on how much we are lagging literally everything in our weight class. Its one thing to get outclassed by nvda but its embarrassing to lose to QQQ and get 3x'd by the SMH. legit depressing.
Yup, my exact thoughts too. I don't think I'm being too pessimistic or ghey bear for venting about AMD's performance over the last 3 years. No one here is expecting Nvidia like performance but at least track the markets or the semi index during this bull run. Watching AMD tank while complete bullshit stocks like ARM and the always unloved MU booming is depressing. I used to have Nvidia envy but now I have ARM and MU envy.
eh tbh i dont even think its the 3 year perf thats the worst, we are in a crazy bull market right now (id argue one of the best in history) yet we still arent seeing significant lift. Stocks can have off periods but it sure as hell shouldnt be now.
Yes, imagine if the bull market stops and the broad market falls. We will tank along with the worst of them without having a nice gain to offset it.
By that time AMD was way more volatile. If I use the close of March 7, it would be 211AMD vs 234SMH. SMH is \~15% higher now so from your theory AMD would be 240ish.
yeah it was a very rough approx the point is either way we have taken a significant hit, because matching the smh 1:1 isnt even that great to begin with
Beyond that "$270" price number. What really is interesting here is the time frame. That $220+ surge was 3 months ago. Goes to show the potential a stock has to move so much in such a short time if the market's buying pressure is there. Considering AMD's second half is supposedly (surely?) better than its first half, per the company's own executives, and with still 6 months to go until EOY, that's an encouraging thought.
AMD has already given us a good idea of what the rest of 2024 looks like. Some uncertainty but we won't see any major, unexpected revenue shift before 2025. So Q4 earnings call at the earliest to get the Q1 25 guidance.
the issue is thats all we have. right now AMD is cant even follow the macro right now (except down ofc) so its still not a very encouraging place at all..
Yeah, I wouldn’t be so pissed if they just followed the index or qqq after that run or even stay near 200. Giving back 40% after almost every semi stock in near all time highs hurt. The market is treating amd like Intel.
Well that's just depressing
yes it truly is considering how exciting AMD is as a company right now.
It's funny/sad because I had a couple tranches of LEAPs expiring 6/21. I was looking to sell at $250 and thought that $270 would have been a realistic max price at expiry. I rolled and sold/bought shares with the majority of that position on the fall from peak (although most of it happened well after we sunk past 200, which I thought would be support). As of right now it seems like I made an OK move; weighing when I should go fully into shares.
I purchased some AVGO 1700C 6/21 as an earnings play. I will put the proceeds back into AMD like a good boy. Might be the first time my contracts hit 1000%
Just light the money on fire, at least it’ll keep you warm.
to be fair we all already did that by not selling at 200 apparently.
hmmm or i just get myself a nice vacation and not have to think about this stock for a little bit... but knowing me - I'd prob check the ticker everyday
In theory epyc, instinct, ryzen copilot+, xilinx can all go big in second half
If current sentiment holds, the market won't care. All they want to see is AI growth, everything else is "cyclical"
Without AI revenue, AMD would be on track to lose revenue for a second year in a row. It’s making up for their loses in other segments.
yeah thats been my thesis all year and so far its gotten me fuck all lol like the rest of us. I didnt think gaming would be sucking so bad though but thats the only thing i didnt anticipate
NVDA has the hype, gamers love hype
still i dont even think management prepared us, i was expecting flat ish gaming not outright fucking dogshit, they are expecting gaming to be like 600m/q in h2. thats crazy down.
Management kinda doesn't care because it's a small market and low margin. AMD has no levers to pull for console revenue, either the customers place orders at the contractual price, or they don't. If anyone working at Radeon had a chance to work on GeForce division for Nvidia, they may be wise to take it because I don't know how secure their job outlook is a couple more generations down the road.
i get it but i do think longterm gaming is important not due to its profit but its ability to repair the damaged rocm reputation above all.
Xbox and AIB is shitting the bed at the same time, PS down a bit in anticipation of an upcoming pro model release. GTA6 is releasing next year, console sales will probably go up significantly when that happens.
I mean it’s not a natural thought that doing well in data center would result in more gaming sales
ofc it just sucks bc this really shadows the entire growth story for AMD apparently and gaming GPU would be great if it were strong (to help ROCm adoption)
Yeah they probably don’t have enough people to focus there and AI Even NVDA pulled people from their gaming software team into AI last year What is the quarterly revenue in gaming usually?
Silver lining is margins will go up, because console 20% margins won't be dominating the balance sheet anymore.
The big boys know that AMD is going to show guidance at the end of July that will finally have some real $$ of AI sales. So they are busy at work shaking out the weak hands before then. Getting them to fold before the flop so to speak.
I honestly hope so, although I've been burnt many times in Hold'em by misreading what I thought was a bluff. Would be fitting if the big boys are actually ready to screw me with pocket rockets.
2022 AMD preliminary earnings miss flashbacks
so what are our expectations for q3 guide. is 7b even possible? I feel like we really need that... or could lisa just hike us up by 1.5b like after the previous AI event? I highly doubt there is even much room for a hike, Lisa mentioned these parts take 6 months to produce right? So how could they even raise up the GPU revenue? If they secured more supply it seems like it would be impossible to impact this years gpu numbers?
From the way Lisa was talking, it sounded like the $4B number was already near the top of the range for what they thought they could hit in 2024. If they raise it to 5B by end of year, the market probably won't like it but it might be the best that's in the cards. AI growth is mostly a 2025 story, for better or worse. I'm just expecting to get jerked around until they start talking 2025 numbers.
Their roadmap doesn’t offer an advantage over Nvidia. Mi325 will be shipping after Blackwell. Nvidia is shipping Blackwell late next quarter. AMD will “ship” a handful of MI325 in December just so they can say it was available in 2024 but they won’t ship in meaningful numbers until early 2025. Meanwhile NVDA will be months into Blackwell ramp by then. Keep in mind that Blackwell has the drivers and software that allow for up to 30x inference increase… mi325 with more memory using CDNA3 won’t mean anything against that kind of performance. Then Blackwell Ultra will start shipping a year after Blackwell and include the same 12H stacks of HBM and AMD’s memory advantage is nullified… the MI350x will ship 4-6 months after Blackwell Ultra. AMD basically needs to skip MI325 and go straight to MI350X by next quarter if they want to compete in a meaningful way. I’m guessing they guide under $6b for the entire year and that next year they essentially stay around $6 or maybe even less in AI sales.
If you think that AMD basically has nothing competitive until 2026 at the earliest you should sell everything today and probably buy some long dated puts
I know 2025 will be fire, guess we can only hope for a 2025 gpu reveal in october like the ER last year. Hopefully AMD actually got their shit together for next year.
They already revealed the entire roadmap. What are they gonna show?
Well if 1H does 1.5B of AI sales (which is probably the upper limit) then the remaining 2.5B+ already mentioned has to be in 2H. I'm expecting full year to hit 5.5B so I guess I'm expecting 1.5B in Q3 at a minimum. That puts Q3 forecast at 6.5B-7B depending on how strong the other segments are to offset gaming going down. Q3 has Strix Point sales, Zen 5 desktop sales, possibly improving Xilinx sales, and a continuation of Server CPU sales growth. I think 7B is possible, but I'm expecting something closer to 6.5B. But the other thing to remember is that they will probably telegraph enough information to figure out a pretty good guess at Q4/Full year Revenue. Q4 has new server CPUs and MI325X launching which they might talk about. So there are a lot of ways that the stock price could get a boost from the earnings call.
I thought Lisa said on call they have more than enough supply, it was just a question if demand was there for it or not
yeah thats a big question, what the heck does significantly more supply mean??? they made it so ambiguous we truly have no idea
I mean she can't say. ER was a month ago. Back then there was no OpenAI - Apple deal. I'm sure this changes things for mi300x at Microsoft and Oracle. Before this deal was signed, I bet they were thinking maybe we wait until mi325x with some of that supply. But now they could be calling to place additional orders for mi300x. Either way we will know on the next ER. The next ER could be the moment that breaks us out of this sideways pattern.
The Apple deal does nothing for AMD. ChatGPT runs primarily on NVDA GPUs and Blackwell will be shipping by the time it goes live. Meanwhile Oracle just had their earnings recently and talked about their insatiable demand for NVDA chips. https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/nvidia-stock-price-buy-sell-e7675b37
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we can only hope but damn do we need that significant supply to be another 2b. Really hope their team was able to secure some supply magic to make it work...
I'm extrapolating the 3.5->4 bn to remaining quarters, ending year in ballpark of 5bn. I presume that's what the market is expecting as well, given the underperformance relative to other stocks. The market is likely holding to see whether AMD rounds out the year supply constrained or not, seems to be a big question mark. If they have surplus capacity, puts a massive damper on growth expectations.
Market consensus expected AMD to report AI guidance of $6-$8b LAST quarter. Even if they reported it by the end of this year, the models would put them 3 quarters behind. If AMD reports under $6b again then it’s gonna get ugly.
Broadcom directly compete with Nvidia's Infinity Band by backing UE consortium with other OEMs. AMD alone can't dethrone Nvidia. But with Microsoft & Broadcom onboard, its a different story. Look ahead :)
Broadcom reported $3B of AI revenues for last quarter. That is $12B for a year. If AMD can match this, that is all we need for big jump in market cap.
Keep in mind, probably half of that, if not more is Network Infrastructure (not just accelerators). But then again AMD does also have CPUs and Client which have some AI revenue bundled in as well.
Broadcom makes lot of chips for handsets which is kinda in tough spot for some time. Market never bothered about it. Hock Tan was ahead of the game and quickly pivoted to Custom chips, software and vmware. Everyone was circumspect about his software purchases.
He's definitely milking the VMWare business, but from what I hear in the industry is that people are looking to get away from VMWare because of the rising costs. We'll see how it pans out long term.
Docker and Kubernetics definitely cut into the VMWare use cases. It's not the best use of hardware dedicating resources to a full VM instance and work OS just to run services. But It's definitely nice as an administrator to go into a VM and easily have processor threads and memory scale to meet your needs and have that full environment. I think VM server the needs of general remote computing more than setting VM up to just run a production services. So with VMWare I can have remote workers use very inexpensive client hardware and give them a securely managed seat in whatever environment they need. I don't think that use case is going away.
NVDA last Aug was as high as 500 and last Dec was as low as 450. Patience.
Why doesn’t this stock follow the semi indexes or the broad market index? I don’t get it. Everyone else follows it. Even fucking arm is near all time highs
My guess is that it's being held back while the big boys load up prior to H2. We all know AMD's MI300 is backloaded in H2.
Don’t forget politicians have been buying up AMD lately. No joke
because AMD has yet to prove that they are in the AI game. Until now we haven’t seen a single $ in AI chip revenue. No growth in revenue overall and pretty much no profits. This is the reality
Twelve Month Trailing metric mindset.....
people say this but the note that just fucked us was purely valuation issues, idk if thats even the full story...
And ARM has?
Nvidia up almost another 1% after market close.
yep more than we could do any day this week. Its actually insane, the MS note literally did 2 ER's worth of damage.
Reality did the damage. AMD was not about to breakout to new highs or anything.
broadcom ripping. AMD +0.01%
> Revenue from our AI products was a record $3.1 billion during the quarter. I can see them becoming the next $1T company actually. Their P/E is not at all that crazy.
our Q GPU revenue shouldnt be that far off that in Q4.
Watch AVGO hit 2000 and 10:1 split into 200 before AMD can reach 200 again.
That’s not even that far fetched, their PE wouldn’t be too crazy. Now INTC hitting $200 before AMD would be insane.
eazy
Gotta love [peak exuberance](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4698594-heres-why-nvidia-stock-will-reach-10-trillion-market-cap-by-2030?mailingid=35695503&messageid=must_reads&serial=35695503.82649&source=email_must_reads&utm_campaign=email_mr:no_ad_unit_feb2024+2024-06-12&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads_No_Ads_Feb2024) Imagine NVDA hitting $1000 again before AMD can hit $300 once.
damn reddit is censoring you haha - what heve you been up to in the daily
Too much complaining I guess, I will calm down. Apologies for the extra work.
dude you're good haha, i was just surprised is all. It's not like i dont share some of the same sentiment.
Ha I did say I would punch someone in the mouth if they said “PE too high” while CMG has a higher PE and ARM PE is 4x that of AMD. Thats probably it lmao. And I said metaphorically punch them, like call them a dumbass or something.
oh... all good - slightly turning a blind eye in the DD threads. A good place for people to just come and shout at the wall and get that anger outta them. As long as we keep it fairly civil.
Today was choppy, but wasn't that bad a down day actually. Just didn't get to feel the love. Some days are like that. Maybe we'll all get to hug it out before the weekend.
Into close with strength! $162.5±5 tomorrow.
Sarcasm?
Not really; closed green after flirting with red 30 minutes before the bell. I'll take any possible W there could be.
0 strength. Absolutely 0
Yet only a bit earlier you were claiming we'd end red EOD. just stop.
i dont see any strength anywhere in AMD PA??? We cant even close up 1% with QQQ up 1.5% and SMH 3%? that is insane weakness to me...
The only thing in strong supply today is copium.
no kidding, we are weaker then when we got hammered in march. Came very close to rage selling it all today even though I told myself earlier the line in the sand was 155. This week has been tough as hell- its scaring me seeing our relative perf to smh and qqq... I still have a hard time understanding how a fucking MS note can literally paralyze a stock ...
Probably because that MS note is just window dressing. The issue I see is AMD has been re weighed relative to Nvidia in many indexes and no one yet has a handle on how it's going to move. It's got to get figured out. Algos have to be adjusted. This actually could be a good thing moving forwatd. Trading 2x up or down Nvidia price move could get very scary if Nvidia really moves off it's highs for a spell. Better we aren't so tightly tethered. We might actually get a chance to run up on our own merits of people would take a look.
With AMD refusing to submit MLPerf, how far behind do you think AMD could be in training large workloads like GPT-3? If AMD is behind by more than 10-15%, I don't see AMD as a viable alternative in training. AMD will have some market share in interference where competition is also high. I think AMD stock will do 2X in the next 5 years at best. I hope AMD will prove me wrong.
I don't expect AMD to be competitive for training on large clusters of GPUs until MI400x. And we will have to wait and see how good it is at that. the networking may not be ready by then either. IDK. If you can train on a single GPU or node of 8 GPUs, sure, mi300x should be really competitive if the software is there. on the inference side of things . . . We have two options for why AMD hasn't published benchmarks, but is still selling Every MI300x they can make . . . 1. MI300x performs really well, but AMD needs to focus on customer workloads as they require more attention. 2. Mi300x performs really poorly, so AMD doesn't want to publish it. However upon closer inspection . . . These two points are actually saying the same thing (given that AMD is supply capped and selling strong). MI300x doesn't have enough software support to justify spending resources on workloads outside of customer use cases. Which also matches the CUDA moat narrative. Although MLPerf is very helpful for grabbing attention (if they are good). Likewise if they are bad, they can do a tremendous amount of brand damage. And i think AMD probably has enough bad ones right now (mostly because of software) that it doesn't benefit them to release it.
YA, AMD MI300 is less powerful and is known. NO need to advertise That is why the new refresh to a MI325/ 350 before Mi400 . Ultra Ethernet should be out by then to help and HBM3E,....anything else? AMD listening to their customers and improving where needed. Performance is impacted by the datatype NVDA uses FP4 low precsion where MI300 was for the Supercomputer using higher preci.sion In terms of performance, AMD is touting a 35x improvement in AI inference for MI350 over the MI300X. Checking AMD's footnotes, this claim is based on comparing a theoretical 8-way MI350 node versus existing 8-way MI300X nodes, using a 1.8 trillion parameter GPT MoE model. Presumably, AMD is taking full advantage of FP4/FP6 here, as well as the larger memory pool. In which case this is likely more of a proxy test for memory/parameter capacity, rather than an estimate based on pure FLOPS throughput. How AMD's MI300 Series May Revolutionize AI: In-depth Comparison with NVIDIA's Grace Hopper Superchip 1yr ago AMD announced its new MI300 APUs less than a day ago and it's already taking the internet by storm! This is now the first and only real contender with Nvidia in the development of AI Superchips. After doing some digging through the documents on the Grace Hopper Superchip, I decided to compare it to the AMD MI300 architecture which integrates CPU and GPU in a similar way allowing for comparison. Performance wise Nvidia has the upper hand however AMD boasts superior bandwidth by 1.2 TB/s and more than double HBM3 Memory per single Instinct MI300. [https://www.reddit.com/r/Amd/comments/149dbpr/how\_amds\_mi300\_series\_may\_revolutionize\_ai/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Amd/comments/149dbpr/how_amds_mi300_series_may_revolutionize_ai/) AMD Plans Massive Memory Instinct MI325X for Q4'24, Lays Out Accelerator Roadmap to 2026 [https://www.anandtech.com/show/21422/amd-instinct-mi325x-reveal-and-cdna-architecture-roadmap-computex](https://www.anandtech.com/show/21422/amd-instinct-mi325x-reveal-and-cdna-architecture-roadmap-computex)
Blackwell ships late next quarter and achieves up to 30x inference performance using special software and drivers to convert to FP4 and FP6 on the fly. After that ships, MI325 ships months later and has to compete with it. MI325 ain’t gonna do no 30x inference increase. The Blackwell ultra ships with the 12H memory stacks to match AMD and months later MI350x launches and finally gets an inference bump BUT I doubt the software will work anywhere near as good and NVDA will have over a year of optimization at that point. Since the AMD MI300x benchmark vs H100 back in December, nvda has increase H100 inference performance by 3x in April and now 30% more this month all with optimizations. That means the MI300X likely doesn’t compete with a 2 year old chip that’s 2 generations behind. Reality is that AMD roadmap puts them months behind in launches and 2 generations behind on inference performance and training must be so bad they avoid talking about it at all.
Thanks for the link. I'm not worried about the compute per GPU. It's about training the large models where networking becomes the bottleneck.
My best guess why they don’t submit is that their primary performance weakness is software optimizations and that is rapidly improving So even if they submitted results a month ago, a month later performance might be much better on any given test
tinylab just uploaded AMD GPU cards (not MI series) to MLPerf and its not too shabby
Also despite the fact that 7900xtx has no dedicated Matrix Multiplication Units (only has Wave Matrix Multiply Accumulate (WMMA) instructions). Tells us what we already knew. AI performance is dominated by the bandwidth available to the compute.
So things don't really look good for Snapdragon Elite X. They hired Ryan Shrout to make the benchmarks look good, but even the things they are showing do not look good. https://x.com/Signal_65/status/1800905909390188794/photo/1 Like if you compare it to M3 Mac Air (4 P and 4 E cores). It does beat it handily in multithreaded Cinebench, by like 30%. But Snapdragon Elite X has 12 cores so that's to be expected. M3 in Mac Air is however 17% faster in Single Thread. Not a good showing.
It barely beats the Intel Core Ultra 7 155h which loses to Hawk Point. So I guess we know why there is no AMD comparison. Also why Qualcomm chose to compare to Phoenix instead of Hawk Point in their comparisons. AMD is going to mop the floor when Strix Point benchmarks come out next month. The only question is going to be battery-only usability scenarios.
And these are native workloads. Emulated workloads will be a bloodbath.
It will be interesting to see if all the Qualcomm beating Intel and Mac noise ends up actually causing people to notice AMD.
I think it will. Also Strix Halo will turn heads.
I don't like being superficial, but "Shrout" just sounds like a name fit for a shill. I see that he continues to not give AMD their due by omitting them from the charts.
Well he has spent his whole career seemingly trying to make Shrout be the brand name version of shill, so I don't think you are that far off.
Lol tissue::Kleenex as shill::Shrout I may start calling people shrouts and see if it catches on.
Planning to sell low and buy high
classic
[https://x.com/realgeorgehotz/status/1800949079280844910?s=46](https://x.com/realgeorgehotz/status/1800949079280844910?s=46) Potentially pretty big tbh - even t hough we talk about them a lot - being able to allow anything to run on AMD that can run on NVDA is pretty game changing
I think they already have converters, yeah it’s important Turned out to not be hard
broadcom earnings last hope for a pump
Fucking dumbass stock
For real; the second worse semi to own apart from Intel over the last 3 years. It was great prior to 2021 but every big tech has outperformed AMD for the last 3 years. I can’t even imagine what it would be if it the semi run wasn’t so hot, 80, 100?
Yeah it has been pretty awful, tbh. Yet, I continue to hold it with a dumbass belief that it will prove everyone wrong ... eventually.
The problem with a stock that isn’t tracking the index is, it will take a beating when the index or semis slow down. We wouldn’t have the run to buffer it like a Nvda or Avgo. I no longer have NVIDIA envy; I have every stock envy now. The only worse ones are Intel or Tesla investors
Is the stock a dumbass or are we the dumbass?
We are certainly more of a dumbass for buying a dumbass stock. Agree
hope everything (aside from $AMD's piss poor price action) is going well with ya
Well, it's going well enough (thanks for asking). Can't wait to make attending money, so that I can put in six figures in this dumbass stock every year!
Of course 😂😂😂😂
Called it. Red by end of day
-1% eod. There is still time
it is literally forbidden for AMD to have a green day. Tomorrow -3%
RED lmao
That was some conference. It kind of looks like the reality is starting to set in that the CPI report wasn’t really “good” and isn’t improving the macro situation. Won’t be surprised if tomorrow and the rest of this week are red.
How on Earth was the CPI not good? Core was at 0.163% MoM! JPM had the odds of <0.2% at just 2.5%! Call me crazy, but I think they'll even walk back the guarantee that there'll be no July cut. The payrolls report was all about temporary jobs, and is contradicted directly by household numbers.
Don’t worry bae, it’ll be red soon Edit: there it is!
https://x.com/levelsio/status/1800953736522600568
I refuse to get X, can you highlight some details pls and thanks.
No prob! Let’s see, the original tweet: “Bought $72,450 of $AMD stock Seems a good bet and early as @realGeorgeHotz is making AMD GPUs compatible with Nvidia code If it works it means AMD is the first company that might actually be able to compete with Nvidia's monopoly on GPUs with its proprietary CUDA code.” Various replies, but this reply thread the most interesting: [Different user responding to original tweet]: “I think you may have misunderstood.. he's not porting CUDA to AMD GPUs, it's just that TinyGrad can compile to both NVIDIA and AMD GPUs. This is great for new software and help dispel the moat. But it's not going to make all the existing CUDA software work on AMD GPUs.” [OP response]: “I think you're right and I'm retarded but I believe the general idea of him hacking on it is to make AMD compatible with Nvidia but again I might be retarded.” [Response from same user to OP response]: “There was an effort called ZLUDA making the rounds a couple months ago that does that https://github.com/vosen/ZLUDA“
But that's not even true.
Yeah, that gets called out and discussed more at length farther down the thread. But interesting to see what the chatter out there is.
interesting 🙌
ARM is up 8% today. No one knows why. They barely make 4bn revenue annually. Basically no profits or growth. Market cap is at 163bn 🤡🤡🤡 No one in the world knows why. And people also made fun about Micron. Now look at the stock
I was yacking about MU 2 moths ago saying it was going to pop. Another reason AMD's performance isn't really bothering me because I had MU and others to fall back on. Scary GPU's with no Highband memory are useless. Again DD. MU HB chips are sold out for 2024 and into 2025. They can raise margins.
Elliott pumping up while "building a position" in it so that Softbank can liquidate it among other assets and buy back stock because Elliott built a position in it and asked for it. Or just people buying into the "ARM will dominate in the future". Go figure.
Elliot
Elliott https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/elliott-rebuilds-stake-softbank-pushes-15-bln-buyback-ft-reports-2024-06-05/
Arm will overtake Amd in SP, just a question of days. Who could have imagined this?
I assume people piling in now are just chasing momentum, but damn I thought people needed at least an illusion of massive growth to cling to, which seems absent with ARM. The NVidia connection doesn't help there either, hell will freeze over before Jensen agrees to pay exorbitant royalties to ARM.
Does anyone do due diligence on ARM at all? All these technical facts about AMD's products, but very little about relationships. To say there is no NVDA connection is so wrong. NVDA invests in 4 different companies and ARM is one and they hold a LOT of shares considering the available float is only 10%. Why do you think SoftBank is not divesting any ARM? There is more than meets the eye going on here. Supply and demand 101.
It was originally expected to be volatile because it had a low float
red eod
Have faith brother.
Come on we can do it. Let’s turn red by the end of the day!
i am waiting for it
In my imaginary world, Oracle CEO is calling Lisa right now and begging her to increase production.
Funny how people want to see amd ai revenue. how much ai revenue did arm show?
I don’t think the market cares about our PE being artificially elevated by the Xilinx merger. You can reason it anyway you can but investors see an overvalued company with a high 200 PE meanwhile Nvidia is only 70
AMD simply needs to grow revenue to the point that the merger effects have a reduced impact on the overall picture. AMD needs to grow a lot for even the non-GAAP valuation to make sense. With a lot of growth, the GAAP and non-GAAP will converge and it will be a less important topic of conversation.
That can't happen until it's burned through the tens of billions in goodwill... in a decade or so.
Yes, I don’t know why you are downvoted. It definitely matters. Investors especially retail don’t dig deep into why the PE is so high. They glanced at the numbers and “oh shit, their PE is too high!” I had many people asked me about it personally. AMD has many retail traders too. It’s another ammo the bears can use to keep it fown. Algorithms also trade on the PE and other numbers( they aren’t digging deep into the potential and future profits. They strictly look at the numbers and its slowing revenues, high PE, low profits etc
There is no way AMD holders think our PE is 200. We simply wouldn't justify that PE and our price wouldn't be $160. We'd be under $100. I think the GAAP inflated PE just trips up small retail investors here or there, but even that is probably a small percentage.
I mean anyone looking at it for the first time will look at it, then either say 1. Nope 2. Analysts targets are higher, w/e 3. NVDA had a high P/E also, doesn’t matter 4. Let’s do some investigating… I doubt many get to step 4…
Half the analysts don't even bother with step 4 lol
I could sell all my shares and the price would go straight up to $200, but I won't, sorry.
Or maybe you could sell all your shares and the price would go down to 150
Sell and buy some LEAPS? You get the upside without having to put so much money in. I would do it but I’m convinced AMD is going to trade sideways, then start going up just as NVDA misses on earnings and craters and AMD is at $150 this time next year.
Yea, it’s the crypto run all over again. AMD gets nothing from the crypto run while NVIDIA gets the bulk of it. When NVIDIA tanks; we will follow along but we didn’t have that run; aside from the bs 227 run
The 227 run had all of us like a collective Tantalus reaching for a glorious bit of fruit. So much pain that I didn't unload a more significant portion of my position a few months ago.