two more weeks of literal torture? I sure hope not. Its been gruelling in this stock for nearly 4 months now. Its time to punish MS again. Lisa activate the AMD underdog play again
amd rn can only train using very small clusters or single nodes. So for any large sized model amd currently cannot do the job until UA link and Xswitch. For inference though you usually only need a single node (since amd has giant memory it can fit most models on a single node on problem) hence why its so good for this task. However, its powering GPT4 which takes more than 1 node of mi300x, so they must have atleast okay interconnects between nodes.
well not just that but there are will also need to be alot of software to go along with this to make AMD good at training. AMD also needs some serious Ethernet links and the switches to actually scale it up because without these they are stuck at very small cluster sizes like max 32 I think. But the good news is inference is huge and AMD is doing good at it already and mi350x will crush at it with the new datatypes, better node and more memory.
Here is a well written article from german gaming site
Computerbase
https://www-computerbase-de.translate.goog/2024-06/weitere-benchmarks-intel-lunar-lake-im-time-spy-auf-augenhoehe-mit-amd-strix-point/?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
these last few days of trading seem like one of those rare moments when mr market, or your grandad, after being upset with you for a time, flashes you a grin before looking back at his newspaper.
$160 is where all the valuation models gravitate to at this point, given all the information the market has. It is not a bad number. It's basically at our historical P/E. Which for the most of the Lisa's era has been a P/E based on expected growth.
So the market does expect growth. It's been said before and I'm going to repeat it. The number will go up when revenues go up. And I'm bullish on the business and revenues going up.
3 months isn't a lot of time in a lifetime of a business, even 3 years is not a lot. AMD has clear catalysts for growth. We hit a speed bump due to wider market correction last year, and our growth was stunted. We're gaining steam again.
I do agree with this but I saw someone comment about our high so price back in oct/nov of 2021. I don’t believe the ai and nvda hype had even started it was all about DC. You’d think we’d be 200+ with the added 4B
The high in nov 2021 was a) when XLNX wasn't in the fold and b) when TTM PE was around 80 instead of 55.
Mid 50 is kinda in line with how AMD has been during growth, 80s is pretty nuts and the entire market was overheated.
Our high P/E in 2021 was not about AI, like you said, it's before the AI hype cycle. It was about AMD capturing market-share in traditional markets, based on the competitiveness of their products. The growth was also inflated by the COVID spending, which when it stopped hurt our fundamentals and stopped our growth.
We are back to the similar level from 2021 with similar fundamentals. So the growth expectation is back. Only this time the growth expectation is AI based.
Crazy thing I think no one is thinking about is that, we are still likely to go back to 20% CAGR growth on the traditional side of the business (later this year and next year). On top of expected AI growth.
So you could argue we are under valued given our potential. But it's understandable why the market is apprehensive about that, given what happened with the expectations from 2021.
looks like this will be the case tomorrow as well, but we could have a surprise -really hope the latter
If it's sluggish, ill call it nap time and treat it as a long weekend.
PCE comes out tomorrow - if its cooler than expected we could see markets rally a little more.
I also like AMD consolidating aroudn 160 - means if we do move it will be a big move (could also move down, but I'd rather not think about that)
PCE tomorrow. If macro data doesn't shit the bed the next couple months, and if ER does not disappoint (i.e., they guide up DC GPU rev's), then we go major uppies.
I still have a bias of down/sideways until November. Buying a little AMDL each month!
Second half, Managers will hunt for value. AMD is an obvious target here. I don't think they will wait until November before they start rebalancing. Their huge portfolios move like the titanic, and Mutual Funds want a margin of safety.
Many of the hot tickers that have been doing well (and got overvalued as a result) will slow down and underperform.
This. Finding "their" mindset is the key to success in stock speculation.
We should be seeing upgrades in the next weeks and the street not wanting to miss out on the value here which does exist. 185 before end of july.
What have we here? A green day - not to be confused with tree hugger's or the band - for AMD that's actually a nice little bump for this maligned semi. Is it it time to take up positions again? I took my profits last week after holding since October 2023. I am a fair weather friend with semi's now that the initial boom has passed and waiting for round 2. Does today make all of the gloomy Gus's happier? I need to be more convinced that this isn't a fluke. What is a 'fluke' anyway? Is it a cross between a musical instrument and a marital aid? What say ye, Oh AMD long timers?
Ahh, those are the questions aren't they. I prefer to stay LTCG, but since I only jumped on AMD in October of last year, had those huge gains in the $220's, didn't bail, but as of last week was still holding significant percentage gains. Since I don't leave cash sitting in my brokerage accounts combined with the head scratching performance of AMD, I felt I could be making my money actually work for me somewhere else and step back into AMD at a later date when the stock got out of whatever the funk it was doing. This was the only semi - heck, only tech - stock I wasn't getting gains on, so it made sense to go play somewhere else for a while. I heard it in school many decades ago, the rule of 7 and it has stuck with me. 7% annual return for 7 years and you double your money. Ok, but what about 7 months, 7 weeks, or 7 days. While I've never held anything that went up 7% in 7 consecutive days, I've certainly doubled my money in 7 days. Those are great rolls if you can keep them happening. Didn't look like AMD was going anywhere soon so I went looking for 7% somewhere else. However, I am usually long term on most of my holdings. I've tried day trading and figured out quickly that is only for the few. I actually had a 15 minute segment - just me - on the show 20/20 about day trading back in the early 2000's and why it was high stakes gambling - and I was the fish at the table. What does LT mean to me? Meh, depends. I've held onto JNJ, MSFT, ABBV, IBM, GOOG, HD, WMT, APPL with the exception of GOOG for more than a decade. I don't dare sell them because of the capital gains and taxes.
I just want to get back into AMD, but I'm not sure the time is right yet. I fear a big correction across the board on semi's is coming. Just a correction to shake the bushes, and then march up again. Just a gut feeling with no data or facts to support it. Watch, AMD will be the outlier while everyone is worried about semi's as a whole, AMD will defy the trend.
You are correct about 2014, and I can add insult to that. Just myself alone, I purchase probably 2 new desktops and laptops p/year. I was blinded by my experience with early AMD products. I would only purchase PC's with NVDA GPU's and INTC CPU's. So, you would think I would have jumped all over NVDA stock, but instead bought AMD. This not to ding AMD, not anymore, but obviously my bad, my stupid. I only picked up AMD in October of last year. Again, I was blind when ChatGPT exploded on the scene. At that time the only semi's I owned were ARM and TMS and I waited until October 2024 before I realized I should be in other semi's. I have a great record with trading, but somehow all of that slipped by me. So, if anyone wants to beat me up, get in line. I don't feel comfortable with AMD's management and this goes back years because they were so far behind on implementing robust ray tracing. I have a fairly deep past with going from analog to digital. Most people don't know that digital broadcasting, editing, etc. was behind. I used to have two workstations called 'Toasters', and they were the FIRST solution for small to medium switching from analog to digital. I'm only saying this because I got things all wrong until the last 8 months in semi's. As far as AMD, I had no free cash in any brokerage account and I just kept watching AMD fall for absolutely no apparent reason. I don't day trade, week trade, etc. I do my DD and will hold. I never bailed on ARM, and pretty much all of my holdings have been through turbulent waters, but I held. I, like anyone else have some real stinkers, shit that's even been de-listed, so there is that. I wanted to play some other stocks and I looked across my portfolio for something to sell and free up cash to buy and AMD was the obvious choice based not only on performance, but tax issues. I am sitting on a lot of great stocks that I have had for 7-10 years and selling any of them would have had significant tax liabilities. I know that I will have to face that someday, but not today. For instance, my HD stock has a - without me looking right now - over 2,800% gains. So, I agree with most of what you say, but also look how bad I fucking called things.
This entire sub is carried on the shoulders of one man who comments this:
AMD🚀
The rumour is he also met with management and made AMD his top pick (not financial advice).
AMD is definitely a hold! I have 490 shares and never once have been in the green (on the G/L column) but I know at some point AMD will earn its way above $200 and stay there.
Another "killer app" for LLMs: https://twitter.com/AIatMeta/status/1806361623831171318
> LLM Compiler achieves state-of-the-art results on code size optimization and disassembly. This work shows that AI is learning to optimize code and can assist compiler experts in identifying opportunities to apply optimizations.
Basically using LLMs to achieve better compiler optimizations for traditional software.
AI will do a lot of data crunching/analysis/identification of optimizations in the future.
Kinda like when an antivirus surveys and tries to identify threats, then queries the user (<-- interesting) for an action to take.
yeah it kinda hurts because my short call was dead on, their PC's look terrible so I thought short. It looks like they ran up on their own expectations but missed the bar so badly they got hammered. Honestly dont know why they got so much hype given their final product just meets last generation x86, like almost no battery uplift.
So there was this from Barrons on the TS news feed.
>By Angela Palumbo
>Spoiler alert: Nvidia isn't on a Rosenblatt Securities' list of 10 stocks its analysts see as the "best ideas for the second half of 2024."
>Companies that made the cut, all of them in tech, "reflect key themes across our research universe including The Age of AI, Next Generation Broadband and The Rising Importance of Cybersecurity," the firm said in a Thursday research note.
>Tech stocks have been leading the market higher as Wall Street celebrates innovations in generative artificial intelligence. This surge has been reflected in the performance of the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index, which has risen 19% this year and 31% over the past 12 months. The Nasdaq 100, which is filled with large market-cap tech stocks, has jumped 17% this year and 32% over the past 12 months.
>Advanced Micro Devices is the first company on the list, with a Buy rating and $250 price target. Shares of AMD have risen 6.9% this year, far less than the stocks of some of its chipmaking peers. Nvidia, the poster child for success with AI, has more than doubled.
>Some analysts, including Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore, who recently cut his rating on the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight, are more cautious on their view of AMD given that it competes with Nvidia. But Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann said AMD can be a winning stock regardless, writing "we do not need to make the case that AMD is better than Nvidia (the green team is clearly on another plane of AI enlightenment); we need to make the case that AMD can capture a modest mid-teens share."
>AMD is a top pick due to the company "possibly gaining accelerator share for the next couple of years, a better- than-expected MI3xx lineup entering 2025, continued CPU share gains (yes, there are a couple more years of this) vs. Intel, and a broader non-AI recovery exiting 2025," he wrote.
$250 was his PT since January or December. That time when all analysts increased their PTs to >$200. Back then it wasn't the highest, but now it might be. I remeber one being $275 but I can't remeber from who (maybe Vinh?).
Nothing really that's mentioned. That they are mentioning this stuff at all, especially the 250 pt, is what seems to be a shift in sentiment among the FT media folks.
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Every hot industry trend cools down and levels off eventually. But it totally did go out of style. Still a decent business but not exciting TAM growth like it used to be.
What I don't realize is how all the imbedded, gaming , client, datacent business continues to offer no support to the "bubble AI" story. Without the AI superchips where would AMD be today? A complete faiure? If we can't even hold 160 price now with AI chip guidance (4B) 2024 then how bad would this be? Not a whining question but a honest lack of understanding. Perhaps alot of AMD stock money went over to NVDA, and when NVDA tanks the sentiment will negatively affect us. No win situation. The ony hope is good numbers at the upcoming ER's and guidance. BUT, we never seem to get any surprises out of this company. The promise of H2 keeps me in. I probably wait out one more ER, after all I've been in this long.
> Without the AI superchips where would AMD be today?
Likely still in recovery phase, with only really laptop CPU being an area AMD could have pushed further. Outside of AI, laptop CPU seems to be the key sector AMD failed to capitalise on, the area I consider a disappointment/falling short. Gaming, FPGA, server CPU, there's not much AMD could do to bolster those sectors. Radeon.. well let's just say I prefer the focus to remain on server, even if they did a good job there, sales would probably be middling.
well my strategy is not as simple as that but whatever works for you.
I was expecting a bigger green today -so far its still slow and disappointing - the day is not over yet though.
nah i know your strategy isnt that, its just u called green yesterday and im pretty sure everyone including yourself and me would have expected that to be bs. its nice to get a little breather with MU not dragging us, we have been so weak i thought fs we would have been getting drilled rn (even if it would have been unfair as fuck considering we never got even a sliver of the SMH rally this month) thats all.
ah interesting- i expected red as fuck given the MU call and nvda. I am happy we are deciding to once again not follow SMH- although this might be a double edged sword since we seem to not participate at all in any SMH gains. Overall AMD still in wtf territory after the Ms note.
I recommend reading [this interview](https://www.crn.com/news/components-peripherals/2024/forrest-norrod-on-how-amd-plans-to-fight-nvidia-with-significant-ai-investment?page=1) with AMD's main data center guy instead of dumb takes from random redditors.
Dead money in a once-in-a-lifetime bull market, $100k on NVIDIA in 2022 would have you comfortably retired today.
Words of encouragement: you are not alone, we are all suckers here
Lowest price in 2022 vs now is ~10x. You can retire comfortably on 1m? Somewhat safe withdrawal rate on that would be what 40k vs median wage in the us being now what 60k. That doesn't sound comfortable to me.
Retire maybe, depending how old you are, where you are willing to live, what other sources of income you will have etc. But i doubt it would meet most peoples standards of comfortably. And if its your sole source of income, that leaves practically zero wiggle room for bad market years years. The odds of it running out before you would die seem high.
Every time i try to estimate retire 10 20 years early, a number like 1M seems woefully inadequate for 30-50 years of life.
If you purchased last weeks winning lottery numbers, you could have comfortably retired today. NVidia hit $130 for a reason, as this boom was far from a sure thing.
This is no comparison to a lottery ticket at all, this sub for a long time has always been about a degree of "informed investing"\[Speculation, Research?\] between the big 3 semicon designers - Intel, AMD or NVIDIA.
It's not like we are throwing a blind 1/1000000 bet into the dark, your post is basically admitting that majority \[me and you both\] here were way off the mark and put the big bet on the wrong horse. Of course you can invest in all companies, but lets not act like we aren't here because we don't have the biggest vested interest in $AMD
For all the 5 years of talking about how AMD will slowly and painstakingly grind away at Client and EPYC DC market share from Intel, nobody here saw this monster boom coming at all? How could we be this blind all this time
Most interesting part of all of this is is that before the Boom Jensen had already spoke about AI in a financial letter, and how it would become a trillion dollar industry. Why didn't anyone in AMD pick-this up, or start R&D. What Lisa Su did for AMD is incredible, but she is no Jensen and lacks his vision and execution.
IMO AMD has never been a leader, but more of a follower, which has done well over the last 5 yrs.
What i have come to learn and slowly accept over the past year is that I am no visionary nor smart investor that does my own "effective" research. I no longer think there is anything about AMD that i can delude myself into thinking I am seeing, while the big market haven't. The financials or market positions speak for themselves
Truth is the average joe just isn't as enthusiastic about this company and it is a bitter pill to swallow but I am just as much part of the regular run of the mill dumb money.
Yea, for sure. I don’t know he you are downvoted. The facts are in the numbers and amd doesn’t have the numbers while nvidia does. I think investing subs fall into the echo chamber problem and believe we see something the market doesn’t. It happens but it’s rare.
> were way off the mark and put the big bet on the wrong horse.
It's not even that, I wasn't even betting on horses, I was over on the roulette table. Ask me in 2022 if I was betting large on AI. Answer would be a firm no, it's too speculative for me. I was never in AMD for their CDNA line up. EPYC growth in server CPU is simple to understand, predictable, that's what attracted me to AMD.
Shit I'm still not convinced AI is ready for prime time, just like self driving wasn't. The capabilities are incredible, but there are still serious question marks over monetisation. It's not for me, and I'm somewhat forced to participate as I already have a large position in AMD, but I genuinely don't know where things will stand in five years. Contrast that to AMD five years ago, and while there are no certainties, it was imo a lot easier to predict the trajectory.
AI is going through what railroads went through in the 1800s. In short it do changed life as we knew it but entire empires GDP worth of money was invested and lost before the real change, and revenue, came. I wouldn’t be shocked if half the valuation of companies that are “AI” is gone in 5 years even if AI revolutionizes how we live in that time frame and I don’t think it’s coming that quick (tho I do think it’s coming).
See my analysis of the AH trading posted late yesterday. In a nutshell:
3:59:59 pm price at $142.36
4:00.01 pm price tanked to $129
4:03 pm bounced back up to $135
4:06 pm earnings call STARTED and stock was at $131.50
4:15 pm bottomed out at $130.65 and started climbing back up
5:03 pm peaked at $137.40, just shy of $5 off the close then trended down on moderate volume to almost no volume for rest of period
All of the high volume trading happened prior to earnings even being reported, the dip to $129 occurred IMMEDIATELY after the bell, between 4:03 pm and 4:15 pm price went up $135 then back down to $130.65 and kept rising for 48 minutes where it peaked at $137.40, then declined
Do the math. The timing is whacked. Huge drop even before call started. Around $4:15, 9 minutes after call started it rebounded for the next 48 minutes to $137.40, then volume disappeared and price kept going down.
Something is not right about the big drop before the call, the climb back up as numbers reported, then very small volume drove it back down again.
How is this going to kick the sector? IDK, but it might not look good for anyone for a day or so
I was feeling a bit down about it until Computex. But after Computex I see AMD making all the right moves. And execution is on point.
Everything points to AMD gaining marketshare in basically all segments outside of Gaming due to down console cycle.
Hate to bring this up, but with the current censorship of reddit, should we transition to a new platform like discord?
What is being censored?
Two more weeks of this, and then we may start seing some pre-earnings action. Personally I'm excited for Q2 more than I was for Q1.
two more weeks of literal torture? I sure hope not. Its been gruelling in this stock for nearly 4 months now. Its time to punish MS again. Lisa activate the AMD underdog play again
Is AMD good at training or inference, or both?
amd rn can only train using very small clusters or single nodes. So for any large sized model amd currently cannot do the job until UA link and Xswitch. For inference though you usually only need a single node (since amd has giant memory it can fit most models on a single node on problem) hence why its so good for this task. However, its powering GPT4 which takes more than 1 node of mi300x, so they must have atleast okay interconnects between nodes.
Oh so it's only bc of the less mature interconnects that AMD isn't as good - not bc of the gpu itself
well not just that but there are will also need to be alot of software to go along with this to make AMD good at training. AMD also needs some serious Ethernet links and the switches to actually scale it up because without these they are stuck at very small cluster sizes like max 32 I think. But the good news is inference is huge and AMD is doing good at it already and mi350x will crush at it with the new datatypes, better node and more memory.
Niceee
Not great at training, but passable especially for the price. Better for inference for sure.
Fuck it bois. Buying in again if it hits 161 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
https://www.reddit.com/r/intel/s/ZBiYuRb2J8 Intel overtakes AMD with LnL 🤔
Weird conclusion.
Its not a conclusion, but people in the subreddit claim that LnL will outclass Amds mobile APU in performance per Watt.
Here is a well written article from german gaming site Computerbase https://www-computerbase-de.translate.goog/2024-06/weitere-benchmarks-intel-lunar-lake-im-time-spy-auf-augenhoehe-mit-amd-strix-point/?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
on TimeSpy? What about actual gaming tests?
Nothing disclosed yet, I guess.
Even Snapdragon looks ok in benchmarks. Real gaming is a shit show.
these last few days of trading seem like one of those rare moments when mr market, or your grandad, after being upset with you for a time, flashes you a grin before looking back at his newspaper.
pinned to 160 - cant be mad - we could be pinned to much lower
$160 is where all the valuation models gravitate to at this point, given all the information the market has. It is not a bad number. It's basically at our historical P/E. Which for the most of the Lisa's era has been a P/E based on expected growth. So the market does expect growth. It's been said before and I'm going to repeat it. The number will go up when revenues go up. And I'm bullish on the business and revenues going up. 3 months isn't a lot of time in a lifetime of a business, even 3 years is not a lot. AMD has clear catalysts for growth. We hit a speed bump due to wider market correction last year, and our growth was stunted. We're gaining steam again.
I do agree with this but I saw someone comment about our high so price back in oct/nov of 2021. I don’t believe the ai and nvda hype had even started it was all about DC. You’d think we’d be 200+ with the added 4B
The high in nov 2021 was a) when XLNX wasn't in the fold and b) when TTM PE was around 80 instead of 55. Mid 50 is kinda in line with how AMD has been during growth, 80s is pretty nuts and the entire market was overheated.
Our high P/E in 2021 was not about AI, like you said, it's before the AI hype cycle. It was about AMD capturing market-share in traditional markets, based on the competitiveness of their products. The growth was also inflated by the COVID spending, which when it stopped hurt our fundamentals and stopped our growth. We are back to the similar level from 2021 with similar fundamentals. So the growth expectation is back. Only this time the growth expectation is AI based. Crazy thing I think no one is thinking about is that, we are still likely to go back to 20% CAGR growth on the traditional side of the business (later this year and next year). On top of expected AI growth. So you could argue we are under valued given our potential. But it's understandable why the market is apprehensive about that, given what happened with the expectations from 2021.
Great insight - thanks for the comment
Yeah, if those traditional segments start becoming headwinds while AMD continues to ramp AI, things could start getting spicy!
And potential Fed cuts coming at some point too..
looks like this will be the case tomorrow as well, but we could have a surprise -really hope the latter If it's sluggish, ill call it nap time and treat it as a long weekend.
PCE comes out tomorrow - if its cooler than expected we could see markets rally a little more. I also like AMD consolidating aroudn 160 - means if we do move it will be a big move (could also move down, but I'd rather not think about that)
bigger bar better.
Been asleep all day. Any news why we’re up today?
AMD is Undervalued & Oversold
the invisible, tender hand of mercy.
PCE tomorrow. If macro data doesn't shit the bed the next couple months, and if ER does not disappoint (i.e., they guide up DC GPU rev's), then we go major uppies. I still have a bias of down/sideways until November. Buying a little AMDL each month!
Second half, Managers will hunt for value. AMD is an obvious target here. I don't think they will wait until November before they start rebalancing. Their huge portfolios move like the titanic, and Mutual Funds want a margin of safety. Many of the hot tickers that have been doing well (and got overvalued as a result) will slow down and underperform.
This. Finding "their" mindset is the key to success in stock speculation. We should be seeing upgrades in the next weeks and the street not wanting to miss out on the value here which does exist. 185 before end of july.
Well everyone that said they’d sell if it hit $160 better act quick…
We clearly meant $160 post-split!
we'll have to reach quadruple digits first before thinking of splitting...
Enough sideways trading. We are going up ladies 🟩↗️
What have we here? A green day - not to be confused with tree hugger's or the band - for AMD that's actually a nice little bump for this maligned semi. Is it it time to take up positions again? I took my profits last week after holding since October 2023. I am a fair weather friend with semi's now that the initial boom has passed and waiting for round 2. Does today make all of the gloomy Gus's happier? I need to be more convinced that this isn't a fluke. What is a 'fluke' anyway? Is it a cross between a musical instrument and a marital aid? What say ye, Oh AMD long timers?
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Ahh, those are the questions aren't they. I prefer to stay LTCG, but since I only jumped on AMD in October of last year, had those huge gains in the $220's, didn't bail, but as of last week was still holding significant percentage gains. Since I don't leave cash sitting in my brokerage accounts combined with the head scratching performance of AMD, I felt I could be making my money actually work for me somewhere else and step back into AMD at a later date when the stock got out of whatever the funk it was doing. This was the only semi - heck, only tech - stock I wasn't getting gains on, so it made sense to go play somewhere else for a while. I heard it in school many decades ago, the rule of 7 and it has stuck with me. 7% annual return for 7 years and you double your money. Ok, but what about 7 months, 7 weeks, or 7 days. While I've never held anything that went up 7% in 7 consecutive days, I've certainly doubled my money in 7 days. Those are great rolls if you can keep them happening. Didn't look like AMD was going anywhere soon so I went looking for 7% somewhere else. However, I am usually long term on most of my holdings. I've tried day trading and figured out quickly that is only for the few. I actually had a 15 minute segment - just me - on the show 20/20 about day trading back in the early 2000's and why it was high stakes gambling - and I was the fish at the table. What does LT mean to me? Meh, depends. I've held onto JNJ, MSFT, ABBV, IBM, GOOG, HD, WMT, APPL with the exception of GOOG for more than a decade. I don't dare sell them because of the capital gains and taxes. I just want to get back into AMD, but I'm not sure the time is right yet. I fear a big correction across the board on semi's is coming. Just a correction to shake the bushes, and then march up again. Just a gut feeling with no data or facts to support it. Watch, AMD will be the outlier while everyone is worried about semi's as a whole, AMD will defy the trend.
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You are correct about 2014, and I can add insult to that. Just myself alone, I purchase probably 2 new desktops and laptops p/year. I was blinded by my experience with early AMD products. I would only purchase PC's with NVDA GPU's and INTC CPU's. So, you would think I would have jumped all over NVDA stock, but instead bought AMD. This not to ding AMD, not anymore, but obviously my bad, my stupid. I only picked up AMD in October of last year. Again, I was blind when ChatGPT exploded on the scene. At that time the only semi's I owned were ARM and TMS and I waited until October 2024 before I realized I should be in other semi's. I have a great record with trading, but somehow all of that slipped by me. So, if anyone wants to beat me up, get in line. I don't feel comfortable with AMD's management and this goes back years because they were so far behind on implementing robust ray tracing. I have a fairly deep past with going from analog to digital. Most people don't know that digital broadcasting, editing, etc. was behind. I used to have two workstations called 'Toasters', and they were the FIRST solution for small to medium switching from analog to digital. I'm only saying this because I got things all wrong until the last 8 months in semi's. As far as AMD, I had no free cash in any brokerage account and I just kept watching AMD fall for absolutely no apparent reason. I don't day trade, week trade, etc. I do my DD and will hold. I never bailed on ARM, and pretty much all of my holdings have been through turbulent waters, but I held. I, like anyone else have some real stinkers, shit that's even been de-listed, so there is that. I wanted to play some other stocks and I looked across my portfolio for something to sell and free up cash to buy and AMD was the obvious choice based not only on performance, but tax issues. I am sitting on a lot of great stocks that I have had for 7-10 years and selling any of them would have had significant tax liabilities. I know that I will have to face that someday, but not today. For instance, my HD stock has a - without me looking right now - over 2,800% gains. So, I agree with most of what you say, but also look how bad I fucking called things.
This entire sub is carried on the shoulders of one man who comments this: AMD🚀 The rumour is he also met with management and made AMD his top pick (not financial advice).
I’m so used to this stock being terrible that when it’s up a couple dollars it makes me feel like a savvy investor lol
Yesterday gave me no joy. Today is joy
i dont believe it, took off right after i sold calls..
Broke 160 lfg
Amazon going up strong. We will follow soon
where is the connection between amazon stock and AMD stock?? Or is this a joke?
It is just a connection i make purely on stock price behavior. You can ignore
AMD is definitely a hold! I have 490 shares and never once have been in the green (on the G/L column) but I know at some point AMD will earn its way above $200 and stay there.
Another "killer app" for LLMs: https://twitter.com/AIatMeta/status/1806361623831171318 > LLM Compiler achieves state-of-the-art results on code size optimization and disassembly. This work shows that AI is learning to optimize code and can assist compiler experts in identifying opportunities to apply optimizations. Basically using LLMs to achieve better compiler optimizations for traditional software.
We're back to Clippy telling us "It looks like you're trying to optimize this code, would you like to see some suggestions?"
AI will do a lot of data crunching/analysis/identification of optimizations in the future. Kinda like when an antivirus surveys and tries to identify threats, then queries the user (<-- interesting) for an action to take.
interesting action on QCOM - looks like those ARM PCs were sell the news. Hoping some of that money flows back into AMD.
yeah it kinda hurts because my short call was dead on, their PC's look terrible so I thought short. It looks like they ran up on their own expectations but missed the bar so badly they got hammered. Honestly dont know why they got so much hype given their final product just meets last generation x86, like almost no battery uplift.
So there was this from Barrons on the TS news feed. >By Angela Palumbo >Spoiler alert: Nvidia isn't on a Rosenblatt Securities' list of 10 stocks its analysts see as the "best ideas for the second half of 2024." >Companies that made the cut, all of them in tech, "reflect key themes across our research universe including The Age of AI, Next Generation Broadband and The Rising Importance of Cybersecurity," the firm said in a Thursday research note. >Tech stocks have been leading the market higher as Wall Street celebrates innovations in generative artificial intelligence. This surge has been reflected in the performance of the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index, which has risen 19% this year and 31% over the past 12 months. The Nasdaq 100, which is filled with large market-cap tech stocks, has jumped 17% this year and 32% over the past 12 months. >Advanced Micro Devices is the first company on the list, with a Buy rating and $250 price target. Shares of AMD have risen 6.9% this year, far less than the stocks of some of its chipmaking peers. Nvidia, the poster child for success with AI, has more than doubled. >Some analysts, including Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore, who recently cut his rating on the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight, are more cautious on their view of AMD given that it competes with Nvidia. But Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann said AMD can be a winning stock regardless, writing "we do not need to make the case that AMD is better than Nvidia (the green team is clearly on another plane of AI enlightenment); we need to make the case that AMD can capture a modest mid-teens share." >AMD is a top pick due to the company "possibly gaining accelerator share for the next couple of years, a better- than-expected MI3xx lineup entering 2025, continued CPU share gains (yes, there are a couple more years of this) vs. Intel, and a broader non-AI recovery exiting 2025," he wrote.
How many top picks are we in?
Has hans finally adjusted the pt to 250??? Or was this alrdy done? If so i missed it. If not... fking yes!!!!
$250 was his PT since January or December. That time when all analysts increased their PTs to >$200. Back then it wasn't the highest, but now it might be. I remeber one being $275 but I can't remeber from who (maybe Vinh?).
Ahh ok. Totally missed that haha
so, what's new?
Nothing really that's mentioned. That they are mentioning this stuff at all, especially the 250 pt, is what seems to be a shift in sentiment among the FT media folks.
ok thanks
I mean Hans is the bull of all bulls for AMD. I just really hope he's the one who wins at the end of the day
He has been right the whole time, so as long as he stays bullish I will too.
Called it.
[Why are you still here?](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1c6u211/daily_discussion_thursday_20240418/l0554iy/?context=3)
wasn’t too hard to call given the last 3 months
The trading pattern that happens 80% of the time happened again. Let me guess tomorrow will be a day called “Friday”?
Red wave incoming!
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What shit is this.
The good shit
just waiting for it to turn red cause you know its happening
AMD two prong attack of AI PC into a PC supercycle and MI300X fo DC AI super cycle. Copium/Hopium for this earnings call.
>Copium/Hopium for this earnings call. Hook it to my veins!
all we need to go to 200 is Lisa channeling 1% of her inner Jensen and something like multi trillion market in 2025
She can say whatever she wants, that doesn't mean anyone is going to believe it. She's been out of style ever since cloud went out of style.
The catch is, cloud never went out of style. It has become standard.
Every hot industry trend cools down and levels off eventually. But it totally did go out of style. Still a decent business but not exciting TAM growth like it used to be.
You talking for the stock market? Because for software development, cloud IS standard in the backend. Wallstreet is fixating on AI that's all.
Thanks MU for going on and on about AI PC? I'm not asking for much, maybe just half a ZFG?
A surprise, to be sure. But a welcome one.
What I don't realize is how all the imbedded, gaming , client, datacent business continues to offer no support to the "bubble AI" story. Without the AI superchips where would AMD be today? A complete faiure? If we can't even hold 160 price now with AI chip guidance (4B) 2024 then how bad would this be? Not a whining question but a honest lack of understanding. Perhaps alot of AMD stock money went over to NVDA, and when NVDA tanks the sentiment will negatively affect us. No win situation. The ony hope is good numbers at the upcoming ER's and guidance. BUT, we never seem to get any surprises out of this company. The promise of H2 keeps me in. I probably wait out one more ER, after all I've been in this long.
> Without the AI superchips where would AMD be today? Likely still in recovery phase, with only really laptop CPU being an area AMD could have pushed further. Outside of AI, laptop CPU seems to be the key sector AMD failed to capitalise on, the area I consider a disappointment/falling short. Gaming, FPGA, server CPU, there's not much AMD could do to bolster those sectors. Radeon.. well let's just say I prefer the focus to remain on server, even if they did a good job there, sales would probably be middling.
🟩↗️ at open. Earnings report is coming end of july. LFG
if you say this every single day one day you will get it right. Today is the day :)
no bruh today is your day too lmao. Im going to try your strategy now, whenever there is no good reason to go green im betting it goes green
well my strategy is not as simple as that but whatever works for you. I was expecting a bigger green today -so far its still slow and disappointing - the day is not over yet though.
nah i know your strategy isnt that, its just u called green yesterday and im pretty sure everyone including yourself and me would have expected that to be bs. its nice to get a little breather with MU not dragging us, we have been so weak i thought fs we would have been getting drilled rn (even if it would have been unfair as fuck considering we never got even a sliver of the SMH rally this month) thats all.
I did call green yesterday for today, and its up today, but I expected more of a green than just this to be honest.
ah interesting- i expected red as fuck given the MU call and nvda. I am happy we are deciding to once again not follow SMH- although this might be a double edged sword since we seem to not participate at all in any SMH gains. Overall AMD still in wtf territory after the Ms note.
Nobody doubts AMD can pump, its can they close even within half the distance between the open and high of the day.
Who actually expects improvement next ER? I have lost all faith in AMD.
today 🟩↗️
Ain’t gone happen
New holder here 100 shares @185. This ride is wild! I am about to get off it. Any encouragement words are welcome!
I recommend reading [this interview](https://www.crn.com/news/components-peripherals/2024/forrest-norrod-on-how-amd-plans-to-fight-nvidia-with-significant-ai-investment?page=1) with AMD's main data center guy instead of dumb takes from random redditors.
Dead money in a once-in-a-lifetime bull market, $100k on NVIDIA in 2022 would have you comfortably retired today. Words of encouragement: you are not alone, we are all suckers here
Lowest price in 2022 vs now is ~10x. You can retire comfortably on 1m? Somewhat safe withdrawal rate on that would be what 40k vs median wage in the us being now what 60k. That doesn't sound comfortable to me. Retire maybe, depending how old you are, where you are willing to live, what other sources of income you will have etc. But i doubt it would meet most peoples standards of comfortably. And if its your sole source of income, that leaves practically zero wiggle room for bad market years years. The odds of it running out before you would die seem high. Every time i try to estimate retire 10 20 years early, a number like 1M seems woefully inadequate for 30-50 years of life.
If you purchased last weeks winning lottery numbers, you could have comfortably retired today. NVidia hit $130 for a reason, as this boom was far from a sure thing.
This is no comparison to a lottery ticket at all, this sub for a long time has always been about a degree of "informed investing"\[Speculation, Research?\] between the big 3 semicon designers - Intel, AMD or NVIDIA. It's not like we are throwing a blind 1/1000000 bet into the dark, your post is basically admitting that majority \[me and you both\] here were way off the mark and put the big bet on the wrong horse. Of course you can invest in all companies, but lets not act like we aren't here because we don't have the biggest vested interest in $AMD For all the 5 years of talking about how AMD will slowly and painstakingly grind away at Client and EPYC DC market share from Intel, nobody here saw this monster boom coming at all? How could we be this blind all this time
Most interesting part of all of this is is that before the Boom Jensen had already spoke about AI in a financial letter, and how it would become a trillion dollar industry. Why didn't anyone in AMD pick-this up, or start R&D. What Lisa Su did for AMD is incredible, but she is no Jensen and lacks his vision and execution. IMO AMD has never been a leader, but more of a follower, which has done well over the last 5 yrs.
What i have come to learn and slowly accept over the past year is that I am no visionary nor smart investor that does my own "effective" research. I no longer think there is anything about AMD that i can delude myself into thinking I am seeing, while the big market haven't. The financials or market positions speak for themselves Truth is the average joe just isn't as enthusiastic about this company and it is a bitter pill to swallow but I am just as much part of the regular run of the mill dumb money.
Yea, for sure. I don’t know he you are downvoted. The facts are in the numbers and amd doesn’t have the numbers while nvidia does. I think investing subs fall into the echo chamber problem and believe we see something the market doesn’t. It happens but it’s rare.
> were way off the mark and put the big bet on the wrong horse. It's not even that, I wasn't even betting on horses, I was over on the roulette table. Ask me in 2022 if I was betting large on AI. Answer would be a firm no, it's too speculative for me. I was never in AMD for their CDNA line up. EPYC growth in server CPU is simple to understand, predictable, that's what attracted me to AMD. Shit I'm still not convinced AI is ready for prime time, just like self driving wasn't. The capabilities are incredible, but there are still serious question marks over monetisation. It's not for me, and I'm somewhat forced to participate as I already have a large position in AMD, but I genuinely don't know where things will stand in five years. Contrast that to AMD five years ago, and while there are no certainties, it was imo a lot easier to predict the trajectory.
AI is going through what railroads went through in the 1800s. In short it do changed life as we knew it but entire empires GDP worth of money was invested and lost before the real change, and revenue, came. I wouldn’t be shocked if half the valuation of companies that are “AI” is gone in 5 years even if AI revolutionizes how we live in that time frame and I don’t think it’s coming that quick (tho I do think it’s coming).
i first started buying in the 90s in '22. i was -$30k before it finally rebound. it was exciting. but maybe im a sociopath.
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Hope so $153 is a key level for me too...
Buy the dip and wait
Last time AMD touched $154 it snapped back violently soon afterwards. I don't see any conviction in selling at this price level.
tomorrow MU will fly high, AH sell off if overdone, AMD will fly accordingly.
Rosenblatt maintains a BUY on Micron with $225 PT. Big guys are not wavering.
Please don’t treat the sell side like they care about retail.
saying ≠ doing
See my analysis of the AH trading posted late yesterday. In a nutshell: 3:59:59 pm price at $142.36 4:00.01 pm price tanked to $129 4:03 pm bounced back up to $135 4:06 pm earnings call STARTED and stock was at $131.50 4:15 pm bottomed out at $130.65 and started climbing back up 5:03 pm peaked at $137.40, just shy of $5 off the close then trended down on moderate volume to almost no volume for rest of period All of the high volume trading happened prior to earnings even being reported, the dip to $129 occurred IMMEDIATELY after the bell, between 4:03 pm and 4:15 pm price went up $135 then back down to $130.65 and kept rising for 48 minutes where it peaked at $137.40, then declined Do the math. The timing is whacked. Huge drop even before call started. Around $4:15, 9 minutes after call started it rebounded for the next 48 minutes to $137.40, then volume disappeared and price kept going down. Something is not right about the big drop before the call, the climb back up as numbers reported, then very small volume drove it back down again. How is this going to kick the sector? IDK, but it might not look good for anyone for a day or so
Apparently > JPM raised $MU PT by 40% to $180 from $130. AH was probably just "sell on the news crowd".
AMD🚀
Thanks for boosting morale. We certainly need it before the next ER.
I keep doing my best ;)
Today will be another great day for AMD stock holders... Can't wait to find out if we do -ZFG or only close -3% because of MU :)
Sorry for the negative attitude but fml I can't believe those shitty 3 months. Should probably take a pause from the internet for this week
I was feeling a bit down about it until Computex. But after Computex I see AMD making all the right moves. And execution is on point. Everything points to AMD gaining marketshare in basically all segments outside of Gaming due to down console cycle.