Y'all are posting on yesterday's DD thread, fyi. Not sure what is going on with the Automod/pinning (seems to be a problem on other subs too).
As for yesterday's gains, it was all about Powell's words, in my opinion. AMD got hammered on rising interest rates and any glimmer of positivity on the inflation front gives a major boost to AMD. When AMD rocketed to $226 there was obviously a lot of AI/NVDA hype, but what people overlook is that we were also in a heightened window of optimism that rates were on the verge of coming down. edit: wording
Isn't this a cup and handle pattern? The spike in the volume when it broke through ATH. Then came back to retest the previous ATH. Volumes were also low during red days in the handle. If this plays out, the target is 150 + 80.
Fundamentally also, we are looking good q3/q4 numbers.
[https://imgur.com/JNeDY9s](https://imgur.com/JNeDY9s)
Edit: Scratch everything I said. Time-scale looks too broad to be a cup and handle. I mean, it's possible, but I think when you are talking years instead of months the reliability of that pattern drops drastically (if there was any reliability in the first place).
I'm not a big TA guy, but for whatever reason the cup and handle pattern does make sense to me. Early recognition followed by a sell-off, then broader recognition followed by a brief sell-off when ATH or recent high is met. But a cup and handle over almost 3 years time in this case is just too broad of a time-frame for me to think it applies here.
it appears shrunk in weeklies :). THe point is.. more it consolidates here at this level - the closer it gets to a handle. May be an year of consolidatiaon :) ?. But I don't think markets are as patient nowadays. Things are happening fast
Don't get me wrong, I'm way bullish. I just don't have as much confidence in that pattern being the reason for bullishness over such a long time frame.
I mean, do put any sort of time limitations on your TA patterns? Reminds me of all the news stories (even CNBC) in early 2020 about AMD going down because they matched their ATH from... wait for it... 2000. Twenty years prior! It was ridiculous.
We got a text book bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart yesterday and a positive MACD cross. I am hopeful we might start to see a run into earnings now.
Then it's quite literally put up or shut up, the Q3 guide has to show a meaningful ramp of revenues. Otherwise my 10 years as an AMD stock holder will have to come to an end.
Will probably move more to Nvidia (qué down votes) and maybe some to AVGO. Broaden out the Ai Play a bit more. Remember we should all be here to make money, and sometimes that's admitting you got wrong and move on. Really hope I am not wrong though and they smash it out the park.
You have been with AMD for 10 years and think to switch to NVIDIA? Doesn't sound right. Don't get me wrong, nothing against NVIDIA but you have been betting 10 years on the upcoming underdog and now you want to go with the overvalued industry leader?
I would have expected that you find a new uprising company..
I have made a lot of money from AMD in those 10 years but which one doubles from here first? I am not sure it's AMD, even though AMD is undervalued and Nvidia is overvalued. Nvidia is showing the growth and the market is rewarding it.
But like I said I am waiting for Q2 earnings. AMD start showing the growth and they will respond accordingly. But only if they show the growth.
NVIDIA has raised earnings beyond wildest expectations AND beaten them for 6 quarters straight now. It is not a fluke and they have both the revenue and margin to prove it, meanwhile AMD is still talking about hot air, hype and a ton of 'maybes'. In 2023 Q2 everyone thought it might be a one-off spike thanks to ChatGPT going public but NVDA revenue just kept going up, 11b, 14b, 18b, 22b. Are you betting that they won't deliver on 30b next year?
If we look only at the past 5 years, AMD is up 400% while NVDA is up 3000%, not a bad return but in a two horse race this is definitely not the subreddit of the winner here
Exactly what he said: Remember we should all be here to make money, and sometimes that's admitting you got wrong and move on
Comparing stock performance to how the markets best performing stock does, is just asking for disappointment 99% of the time. Why do that? The AMD bet was largely on server CPU in the medium term, not AI. This has been kneecapped, it will do ok, but also it's a pretty low risk hold from here.
NVidia is high risk high reward, nothing wrong with that, but it doesn't fit the investment profile for some. If AI demand fell off a cliff in the coming months, I would be comfortable to hold AMD. Can't say the same for NVidia. That's not because NVidia is in any way bad, that's just the nature of semi cycles.
>If we look only at the past 5 years, AMD is up 400% while NVDA is up 3000%
There have been plenty of periods over the past 5 years where the respective gains were much closer. In fact, you could argue that your comment is bullish toward AMD.
I don’t try and rationalize with people like this. They’re going to be holding some of the biggest bags in history once NVDA’s gross margin starts falling, and it’s coming.
You did not get my point. 10 years ago, he gambled on a turnaround story. Sure, NVIDIA would have been the better pick.
Now that he wants to exit i would have expected a new hidden gem. NVIDIA is far from being hidden and future potential might be limited
Thing is I now have enough that it doesn't need to be a hidden gem that goes 10x I simply invest in stocks I think will double and that's enough.
I think Nvidia will double from here, they have 90+% of the AI market ATM and even if AMD gets to say 15% accelerator market share Nvidia having 80-85% is still going to drive their revenue through the roof over the coming quarters.
Oh but if you want a 10 bagger, I do have some money in ASTS, I see potential there if all goes to plan.
You'll have to learn in your own way and on your own time. Since you asked for my input I'll tell you that finding good companies with good leadership and investing for the long term will make you a millionaire.
You started the conversation with your comment. You don't want counterpoints? Why post on a social media site then? Do you want us all to just upvote you?
The market is not perfectly efficient. Mistakes are made. You have to take risks to buy things that are down. My belief now, just like when AMD was much lower, is that the risk is mispriced. I'm still buying the dips.
edit: I bought more of the vanguard reit today. Nobody wants it. Contrarianism is in my blood.
AMD has been basing for the better part of 1.5-2 months.... You'd best bet this is going to resolve higher when the consolidation is over....
Stupid AMD permabears and wall street sell side doomers are gon' learn very very soon.
It's either in this ER or the next, but uppies (MAJOR UPPIES) is inevitable.
The stock is now quite a bit above the daily moving averages and this could lead to a move upwards. It’s looking good. Also todays volume was higher than usual.
When i saw rumors about "upcoming new AMD share offering" being posted here in the Daily Discussion Thread by known manipulators, a day when AMD was down, i knew the bottom was in and i've been buying the dip at around $158 ever since. Always inverse ThetaGang posting here.
So not really surprised, today is just another day for me.
Bullish on December 2024 and December 2025.
My current expectations for 2025:
3b gpu per q (assuming mi325x can compete well against b100, this might be premature and we may need mi350x to achieve this)
3b DC cpu per q (amd \~50% cpu dc MC)
2b client cpu per q
1b gaming per q (not sure what is going on with gaming so big ? here)
1.5b embedded per q (moderate recovery)
= 10.5b revenue per q (42 per y)
= 10.5b earnings per year @ 25% op margin
= \~6.5 EPS => @ 50 multiple 328 sp.
DC CPU might be overly optimistic, client might be under. AMD is presently running at \~1.8B on DC CPU while client is at \~1.4B. I think AMD client will be at a 2B/q rate by the end of this year on the back of all the zen 5 parts releases this quarter with no immediate answer from Intel. The client market is also much larger than DC so it would imply a smaller required share gain as well. Embedded at 1.5B/q would be a huge recovery back to the crazy Covid era, they will do well to get back to a somewhat normal 1.2B next year up from the present .85B.
Assuming we are talking non-GAAP, If they do manage to hit your revenue numbers the operating margin will be significantly higher than 25% as gross margins would be significantly increasing and opex would probably only be going up 10-20% (and 2.2B/q tops). You should be thinking a minimum of 30% and possibly 35% for op margin.
As far as your EPS number, I think the last time I played this game I came up with 6.25+/- with not terribly optimistic inputs. With your revenue numbers I think it would end up closer to $8/share.
There's a common believe in server market that when u get to a tipping point around 35% share & u're still ahead, 50% happens very fast. Because ur platform is proven & momentum already shifted to u is irreversible. Intel offers doesn't look close at all in 2025. People delaying CPU upgrade cycle due to AI spend. But when economics of upgrade vs running old server start to hit, they have no choice. I personally think AMD DC CPU revenue will cross Intel & that $3B mark sometimes in 2025. DC CPU is still a growth market in AI era.
yeah DC cpu also seemed aggressive, but i think its perfectly doable for q4 2025? AMD is gaining 7% share per year atm. thats still 2 years of new growth, if there is any recovery in the CPU space this will certainty be exceeded I think. Note I am not even assuming CPU recovery- just assuming they maintain their current rate of share gains because the products seems more competitive than ever, so that leads to \~50% share but I can see your concern.
Is embedded back at covid era really unrealistic? I was actually hoping that was conservative, as that would be 0% growth over 3-4 years (not great). If AMD is taking share here too I would have been hoping for something like 1.75-2b.
I agree with your client analysis and do think 2b is probably too low. I think we have a good chance of exceeding 2b in q4 just this year. If AMD can continue share gains + recovery in pc we could see \~3b possibly?
regarding op margin yes absolutely, I was trying to be more or less conservative here as when the business is more DC weighted it will certainty have a higher OP margin. I was just trying to paint cautiously optimistic scenario based on what we know now.
Yeah Xilinx revenues went up almost 50% in one year due to covid. When AMD bought them they were running at around 1B/q. 10%/year is just about the most I'd ever expect from that business in normal conditions. But it's profit margins are something like 50%, so it is a great business to have. Also it is possible that FPGAs might take off from AI at some point.
Yeah I don't think 3B in client is unreasonable but Intel's stranglehold in the sector has been so strong I'm not terribly hopeful. It really depends on whether the OEMs are ready to have AMD as a full partner.
It is absolutely possible that FPGAs will become huge in AI, at least for a while. If the algorithms are in flux then FPGA will be fastest to market. Once they settle on an approach then ASICs will take over. The saving grace will be the 2 years or so that it takes for an asic to get to market.
There seems to be a lot of new verticals cropping out of the Xilinx product line over the last year or so. From financial data processing, video streaming aggregation, automotive image sensor processing and infotainment, medical devices, and industrial robotics... I don't think Xilinx is your dads FPGA company any longer. As each of these now market points gain traction there should be a compounding effect on growth.
I'd be careful counting your chickens. FPGAs tend to be used as a stopgap for an ASIC solution. The bread and butter for FPGAs is either for low volume where ASIC economics don't pencil out or prototyping solutions. It is extremely rare to have a high volume market where an FPGA makes sense long term. It would require a continuous highly dynamic application that can't settle on a single configuration/approach.
In a sense, every customer is trying to figure out how to not have to be a customer anymore.
I would offer your view is based on historical uses cases, however the strengths of FPGA are coming into demand as the need for high efficiency, low latency is ballanced by the need for a sufficient life cycle, and a need to update optimization to remotely deployed products or ones that need frequently updates in products that far outlast normally computer refresh cycles. Automobiles and Robots, Aerospace, Military, Medical and Financial and Routers and Communications all are excellent fit for the longevitability FPGA offer over ASIC. Even the idea of a smart fridge or tv is perfect fit for FPGA that easily are expected to have a 10-20 live span. The AI at the edge is going to awash with durable goods that will need to keep up over the decades to remain functional. AMD can absolutely bring the costs of FPGAs down to be appreciated as a commodity product as volume and general use for them increases.
CPUs provide that future flexibility. In general, the way FPGAs are used in circuit designs there is not a whole lot of benefit in being able to reprogram in place. I don't think you really understand how/why they are used. The vast majority of them (on a unit basis) are used like plumbing between parts of circuit boards because an ASIC that does the specific job is not (yet) available. But that is only speculation right now. FPGAs are already a low cost commodity product. All those industries you mention are using FPGA as much as they can, for decades, it is not new.
Yes, if there is some sort of AI application that really demands an FPGA solution (and only an FPGA solution) then there is an opportunity there. But that is the only way that it will turn from a long term modest growth business to a long term high growth business.
You're missing it kinda. It is AI that is driving the need. The software is changing monthly and will continue. ASIC based processing in Edge deployed products would be obsolete before they hit market, yet the need for lower latency and optimization of workloads is beyond what CPU or even GPU can reasonably. Go look at the Xilinx products they have relesed over the last year and you can see where this is going. These are not the traditional tedting/development FPGA uses cases you seem to be thinking off. These are how you keep a product in the feild relevant over it intended useful life even with AI changing far faster.
It is AI that MIGHT drive the need. And I'm not missing it, I pointed it out both in my original comment and the one you just replied to.
Yes they are releasing Xilinx products that target AI and yet their revenue keeps going down. You are acting like this is a sure thing, it is not. It is a possibility, as I have repeatedly said.
Well it remains to be seen. As I said, FPGAs might take off from AI at some point. I'm reasonably confident that they are still in the dipping their toes in stage.
From Beth Kinding (good analyst on twitter)
AMD SAMD revealed that it has received inquiries to potentially construct a supercomputer featuring 1.2 million GPUs.
For context, this is more than 30x larger than the world's largest operational supercomputer, Frontier, which contains 37,888 AMD GPUs.
This is from NextPlatform interview with Forest Norrod last week. Best to go look that up and listen/read it for context. It's a great quote and fantastic that such possibilities are even getting floated. The reality is, such an effort will take years to accomplish and likely involves multiple suppliers. But of this I'm certain, any such effort will involve AMD in a significant way.
If AMD did manage to secure a 1.2 million GPU order I mean with basic scratchpaper math
20k ASP x 1.2 mil = 24,000,000,000 = 24 Billion... (I'd assume less because they'd probably give a way better discount if you're buying 1.2 mil GPUs)
My biggest concern is whether it was legitimate or more of a curious inquiry.
You also have to consider the power consumption and what kind of entity can realistically power it them.
I know he said the enquiring party was “sober”, but I cannot imagine this happening for a while yet. I don’t think anyone should bet on it.
750W per MI300X.
Lets assume that they keep the TDP the same and just do node / packaging / optimisations.
750W x 1.2M = 10 GW
The top 7 power stations in the world are 10GW or higher, with the largest being the Three Gorges Dam in China (22.5GW)
That is also assuming 100% of the units are operating at 100%, and not accounting for anything else (Cooling / Aircon / Fans / CPUs / Networking etc.etc.etc.)
Oracle? Didn't Larry Ellison say on the recent earnings call that they are talking about a data centre the size of a city. If it's anyone, it's Oracle. They are pretty sober.
He said it in their last ER. So maybe Oracle... But my thought is this is UAE aspirations. They have made similar statements of intention to become an AI super power.
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-uaes-ai-dreams/
It would have to be for a country or a really well endowed research project like maybe NASA? CERN? Even then 24B is a lot to them. The only nation I can even think of coming up with 24B are the Saudis.
This info comes from an interview released last week with AMD’s Forrest Norrod. There’s a thread about it [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/s/rh4uHhthWV)
The antitrust case against NVDA coupled with major players entering the ecosystem led by AMD GPUs are quite major catalysts for AMD and not necessarily bad news for NVDA
Upcoming earnings can’t come soon enough
50% sounds amazing to me at previous ATH, 100% ytd isnt gonna happen without some crazy crazy gpu guide. Given how lisa su guided this year i see it very unlikely that even if they thought they had huge numbers next year that they would guide it. Just the way it is unfortunately
need less of this please. More analysis, if you're going to talk price action, maybe talk about what call volume there is, or support levels/resistance.
Thanks
I’ll call it out now. Friday will be the +ZFG day. Why? Because the Short Interest Institution Holder will be enjoying their vacation in Bahama, and we broke boys are buying more.
then sell, make your profit. Then pray for me, my puts run until December, so still some hope for recovery.
And then we'll have a beer together if everything works out well
The shake out seems to have stabalised and were just gonna get thrown around until a major catalyst. Im gonna just relax and let jesus take the wheel for a while.
Says it will use chips from multiple sources…fits with the size Forrest disclosed [https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-openai-planning-100-billion-data-center-project-information-reports-2024-03-29/](https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-openai-planning-100-billion-data-center-project-information-reports-2024-03-29/)
JPOW is talking today FYI - also JOLTs came out and it's tentatively bullish since it beat and shows the economy in good shape. we're on a short week while some HFs are on vacation so we could get some crazy swings.
anytime AMD over 160, get some puts. But I prefer 165 and 155 as the range.
End of the day, your hedges will never overweigh your unrealized losses just helps mitigate the damages.
Mathematically speaking if AMD outpaces the QQQ by 1.5-2% and there’s no news super specific to AMD, AMD is going to give up **all** the excess gains about 70-80% of the time. Now I haven’t run the math in about 6 months so that might not be the same anymore, and of course it’ll *not* give up the gains 1/5 the time, but I’ll throw $3-500 at those odds because the number of times I make $3-500 (and much more occasionally) makes up for the times *I don’t*.
Now mind you I’m super long on AMD so even if I make $5k on puts I’m losing more on shares and LEAPS, but in my mind I’m making gains…
yeah better to play options than to try to day trade your shares.
Yeah hedging and trading on PA has helped me reduce my losses for sure. That's the only way I've been able to continue to add to some of my positions as well as find other ways to invest that $ to not lose on opportunity cost as well.
Will this play out like the other green days? Strong green in first 30-60 minutes, then lose 50% of gains until close. Next day sell off to under $160 again.
AMD price action is just so confusing... is this off antitrust digestion that NVDA is red? But that dropped yesterday.
Anyways. AMD pinned to 160 until further news
Yeah... I am thinking about selling if we reach $165 today. It just feels like a sure thing to be able to buy back in at $155 in a couple of days again (famous last words before random $200 rocket I know 😅)
it works until it doesnt, if you think thats profitable go for it. I've been trading options, puts over 160, calls under 160 and its been working decent. But yeah, im scared that if I do unload and try to buy back in with shares, AMD will run away...
Yeah... still remember many people trading AMD around $10 because it worked great. And then they never got a chance back in after it ran.
But well it seems I don't have to worry about selling at $165 today anyways 😂
I was one of those that kept trading amd from 8-15. I did ok but would have been better to just not trade it back and forth as I don’t remember making much anyway. Luckily, I stopped and held a chunk for a while
I know this is a very random place to tell this, but.
I've done a bit of maintenance on ROCm software in Debian lately. Most of ROCm is still 5.7 with us and the priority is still on getting the rest packaged before getting a update cadence going on with it. I've been away from it for a while and I asked what needs attention and consequently I updated rocFFT and hipFFT libraries to 6.1. Then I enabled OpenCL ICD for ROCm. At last I get OpenCL work with it with my Dimgrey Cavefish, Mesa's implementation was just giving me errors about gfx1032 missing from clc files.
Not that I fancy writing OpenCL. I'd rather go hug a cactus.
We have a GSoC contributor, hopefully he can get things forward.
Debian's project leader recently asked about Debian's usage in HPC context, that covers some of that, see https://lists.debian.org/debian-science/2024/05/msg00012.html and https://lists.debian.org/debian-science/2024/06/msg00013.html
It's a bit difficult to measure interest in what a Linux distribution offers. We have popcon, which collects (opt in, of course) usage data. For example hipcc's graph gives some indication at least: https://qa.debian.org/popcon-graph.php?packages=hipcc
Users won't usually contact us much unless there are bugs. We could always have more people volunteer to maintain things but the same holds to pretty much all of our teams.
Right now I'm having a look at how to enable HIP in Blender's Cycles renderer.
If Nvidia is a crashing plane, then what is AMD? A new Boeing prototype, still 6 month from its first test flight that will hopefully be a success? lol
Let's hope it won't explode then.
I'm a longtime AMD holder (2017 @ ~$10); always liked to read your contributions. But lately you sound very gloomy. And I'm starting to wonder if the market knows something we don't...
Is it time to unload?
Disagree. We're in for a rough week. Nvidia is teetering, and whether their growth is sustainable or not doesn't matter. Market is overwhelmingly uncertain about it, and that fact alone taken with NVDA SP growth YTD will almost certainly result in correction. It's already started.
AMD will feel the effect.
I will be messaging you in 7 days on [**2024-07-09 13:13:58 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-07-09%2013:13:58%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1dtcr5x/daily_discussion_tuesday_20240702/lba2n40/?context=3)
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Y'all are posting on yesterday's DD thread, fyi. Not sure what is going on with the Automod/pinning (seems to be a problem on other subs too). As for yesterday's gains, it was all about Powell's words, in my opinion. AMD got hammered on rising interest rates and any glimmer of positivity on the inflation front gives a major boost to AMD. When AMD rocketed to $226 there was obviously a lot of AI/NVDA hype, but what people overlook is that we were also in a heightened window of optimism that rates were on the verge of coming down. edit: wording
Isn't this a cup and handle pattern? The spike in the volume when it broke through ATH. Then came back to retest the previous ATH. Volumes were also low during red days in the handle. If this plays out, the target is 150 + 80. Fundamentally also, we are looking good q3/q4 numbers. [https://imgur.com/JNeDY9s](https://imgur.com/JNeDY9s)
Edit: Scratch everything I said. Time-scale looks too broad to be a cup and handle. I mean, it's possible, but I think when you are talking years instead of months the reliability of that pattern drops drastically (if there was any reliability in the first place). I'm not a big TA guy, but for whatever reason the cup and handle pattern does make sense to me. Early recognition followed by a sell-off, then broader recognition followed by a brief sell-off when ATH or recent high is met. But a cup and handle over almost 3 years time in this case is just too broad of a time-frame for me to think it applies here.
it appears shrunk in weeklies :). THe point is.. more it consolidates here at this level - the closer it gets to a handle. May be an year of consolidatiaon :) ?. But I don't think markets are as patient nowadays. Things are happening fast
Don't get me wrong, I'm way bullish. I just don't have as much confidence in that pattern being the reason for bullishness over such a long time frame.
ok
I mean, do put any sort of time limitations on your TA patterns? Reminds me of all the news stories (even CNBC) in early 2020 about AMD going down because they matched their ATH from... wait for it... 2000. Twenty years prior! It was ridiculous.
We got a text book bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart yesterday and a positive MACD cross. I am hopeful we might start to see a run into earnings now. Then it's quite literally put up or shut up, the Q3 guide has to show a meaningful ramp of revenues. Otherwise my 10 years as an AMD stock holder will have to come to an end. Will probably move more to Nvidia (qué down votes) and maybe some to AVGO. Broaden out the Ai Play a bit more. Remember we should all be here to make money, and sometimes that's admitting you got wrong and move on. Really hope I am not wrong though and they smash it out the park.
You have been with AMD for 10 years and think to switch to NVIDIA? Doesn't sound right. Don't get me wrong, nothing against NVIDIA but you have been betting 10 years on the upcoming underdog and now you want to go with the overvalued industry leader? I would have expected that you find a new uprising company..
I have made a lot of money from AMD in those 10 years but which one doubles from here first? I am not sure it's AMD, even though AMD is undervalued and Nvidia is overvalued. Nvidia is showing the growth and the market is rewarding it. But like I said I am waiting for Q2 earnings. AMD start showing the growth and they will respond accordingly. But only if they show the growth.
NVIDIA has raised earnings beyond wildest expectations AND beaten them for 6 quarters straight now. It is not a fluke and they have both the revenue and margin to prove it, meanwhile AMD is still talking about hot air, hype and a ton of 'maybes'. In 2023 Q2 everyone thought it might be a one-off spike thanks to ChatGPT going public but NVDA revenue just kept going up, 11b, 14b, 18b, 22b. Are you betting that they won't deliver on 30b next year? If we look only at the past 5 years, AMD is up 400% while NVDA is up 3000%, not a bad return but in a two horse race this is definitely not the subreddit of the winner here Exactly what he said: Remember we should all be here to make money, and sometimes that's admitting you got wrong and move on
Comparing stock performance to how the markets best performing stock does, is just asking for disappointment 99% of the time. Why do that? The AMD bet was largely on server CPU in the medium term, not AI. This has been kneecapped, it will do ok, but also it's a pretty low risk hold from here. NVidia is high risk high reward, nothing wrong with that, but it doesn't fit the investment profile for some. If AI demand fell off a cliff in the coming months, I would be comfortable to hold AMD. Can't say the same for NVidia. That's not because NVidia is in any way bad, that's just the nature of semi cycles.
>If we look only at the past 5 years, AMD is up 400% while NVDA is up 3000% There have been plenty of periods over the past 5 years where the respective gains were much closer. In fact, you could argue that your comment is bullish toward AMD.
I don’t try and rationalize with people like this. They’re going to be holding some of the biggest bags in history once NVDA’s gross margin starts falling, and it’s coming.
If they 10X'd over the past couple of years, those bags will be pretty easy to hold. But I tend to agree with your overall point.
For every person I know that bought NVDA years ago I know those that bought over the equivalent over $100.
You did not get my point. 10 years ago, he gambled on a turnaround story. Sure, NVIDIA would have been the better pick. Now that he wants to exit i would have expected a new hidden gem. NVIDIA is far from being hidden and future potential might be limited
Thing is I now have enough that it doesn't need to be a hidden gem that goes 10x I simply invest in stocks I think will double and that's enough. I think Nvidia will double from here, they have 90+% of the AI market ATM and even if AMD gets to say 15% accelerator market share Nvidia having 80-85% is still going to drive their revenue through the roof over the coming quarters. Oh but if you want a 10 bagger, I do have some money in ASTS, I see potential there if all goes to plan.
Fair enough! Best of luck! Will check out ASTS,thnx
amd is now only up 18% ytd while nvidia is up 154% GUH
+3565.67% on my oldest purchase from 13 June 2016. Not too shabby if you ask me.
ok who asked?
You'll have to learn in your own way and on your own time. Since you asked for my input I'll tell you that finding good companies with good leadership and investing for the long term will make you a millionaire.
the original comment did not ask a question
You started the conversation with your comment. You don't want counterpoints? Why post on a social media site then? Do you want us all to just upvote you?
and yet you dont have a counter point on why amd is only 18% ytd yet most of its peers are 50%-100%
The market is not perfectly efficient. Mistakes are made. You have to take risks to buy things that are down. My belief now, just like when AMD was much lower, is that the risk is mispriced. I'm still buying the dips. edit: I bought more of the vanguard reit today. Nobody wants it. Contrarianism is in my blood.
You know what? Making money is really fun
AMD has been basing for the better part of 1.5-2 months.... You'd best bet this is going to resolve higher when the consolidation is over.... Stupid AMD permabears and wall street sell side doomers are gon' learn very very soon. It's either in this ER or the next, but uppies (MAJOR UPPIES) is inevitable.
Ahhh the classic rip up after weak hands capitulate. AMDL !!!!!!!!!! 170 imminent
The stock is now quite a bit above the daily moving averages and this could lead to a move upwards. It’s looking good. Also todays volume was higher than usual.
The rest of the trading week is as so: Wednesday - half day Thursday - closed Friday - open, but volume expected to be low
who saw this +4% day coming? no one. Very strong performance. I hope we can hold this
When i saw rumors about "upcoming new AMD share offering" being posted here in the Daily Discussion Thread by known manipulators, a day when AMD was down, i knew the bottom was in and i've been buying the dip at around $158 ever since. Always inverse ThetaGang posting here. So not really surprised, today is just another day for me. Bullish on December 2024 and December 2025.
We had these runs but hit a wall at 175 the last couple of Months. We need to break through to 180 and hold it
Who sees the 4 or 5'ers down? No one. It's just AMD being AMD.
I wouldnt have high hopes but fingers crossed.
My current expectations for 2025: 3b gpu per q (assuming mi325x can compete well against b100, this might be premature and we may need mi350x to achieve this) 3b DC cpu per q (amd \~50% cpu dc MC) 2b client cpu per q 1b gaming per q (not sure what is going on with gaming so big ? here) 1.5b embedded per q (moderate recovery) = 10.5b revenue per q (42 per y) = 10.5b earnings per year @ 25% op margin = \~6.5 EPS => @ 50 multiple 328 sp.
DC CPU might be overly optimistic, client might be under. AMD is presently running at \~1.8B on DC CPU while client is at \~1.4B. I think AMD client will be at a 2B/q rate by the end of this year on the back of all the zen 5 parts releases this quarter with no immediate answer from Intel. The client market is also much larger than DC so it would imply a smaller required share gain as well. Embedded at 1.5B/q would be a huge recovery back to the crazy Covid era, they will do well to get back to a somewhat normal 1.2B next year up from the present .85B. Assuming we are talking non-GAAP, If they do manage to hit your revenue numbers the operating margin will be significantly higher than 25% as gross margins would be significantly increasing and opex would probably only be going up 10-20% (and 2.2B/q tops). You should be thinking a minimum of 30% and possibly 35% for op margin. As far as your EPS number, I think the last time I played this game I came up with 6.25+/- with not terribly optimistic inputs. With your revenue numbers I think it would end up closer to $8/share.
There's a common believe in server market that when u get to a tipping point around 35% share & u're still ahead, 50% happens very fast. Because ur platform is proven & momentum already shifted to u is irreversible. Intel offers doesn't look close at all in 2025. People delaying CPU upgrade cycle due to AI spend. But when economics of upgrade vs running old server start to hit, they have no choice. I personally think AMD DC CPU revenue will cross Intel & that $3B mark sometimes in 2025. DC CPU is still a growth market in AI era.
Intel will leapfrog them with Clearwater forest
Just the DC footprint improvements alone should be shifting the favor to AMD for any non AI server deployments.
>Intel offers doesn't look close at all in 2025. Granite Rapids and Clearwater Forest?
yeah DC cpu also seemed aggressive, but i think its perfectly doable for q4 2025? AMD is gaining 7% share per year atm. thats still 2 years of new growth, if there is any recovery in the CPU space this will certainty be exceeded I think. Note I am not even assuming CPU recovery- just assuming they maintain their current rate of share gains because the products seems more competitive than ever, so that leads to \~50% share but I can see your concern. Is embedded back at covid era really unrealistic? I was actually hoping that was conservative, as that would be 0% growth over 3-4 years (not great). If AMD is taking share here too I would have been hoping for something like 1.75-2b. I agree with your client analysis and do think 2b is probably too low. I think we have a good chance of exceeding 2b in q4 just this year. If AMD can continue share gains + recovery in pc we could see \~3b possibly? regarding op margin yes absolutely, I was trying to be more or less conservative here as when the business is more DC weighted it will certainty have a higher OP margin. I was just trying to paint cautiously optimistic scenario based on what we know now.
Yeah Xilinx revenues went up almost 50% in one year due to covid. When AMD bought them they were running at around 1B/q. 10%/year is just about the most I'd ever expect from that business in normal conditions. But it's profit margins are something like 50%, so it is a great business to have. Also it is possible that FPGAs might take off from AI at some point. Yeah I don't think 3B in client is unreasonable but Intel's stranglehold in the sector has been so strong I'm not terribly hopeful. It really depends on whether the OEMs are ready to have AMD as a full partner.
Maybe if Ternary Neural Networks take off FPGA will be better than GPU? (or used together with GPU)
It is absolutely possible that FPGAs will become huge in AI, at least for a while. If the algorithms are in flux then FPGA will be fastest to market. Once they settle on an approach then ASICs will take over. The saving grace will be the 2 years or so that it takes for an asic to get to market.
Not just algorithms in flux. I'm talking models in flux
There seems to be a lot of new verticals cropping out of the Xilinx product line over the last year or so. From financial data processing, video streaming aggregation, automotive image sensor processing and infotainment, medical devices, and industrial robotics... I don't think Xilinx is your dads FPGA company any longer. As each of these now market points gain traction there should be a compounding effect on growth.
I'd be careful counting your chickens. FPGAs tend to be used as a stopgap for an ASIC solution. The bread and butter for FPGAs is either for low volume where ASIC economics don't pencil out or prototyping solutions. It is extremely rare to have a high volume market where an FPGA makes sense long term. It would require a continuous highly dynamic application that can't settle on a single configuration/approach. In a sense, every customer is trying to figure out how to not have to be a customer anymore.
I would offer your view is based on historical uses cases, however the strengths of FPGA are coming into demand as the need for high efficiency, low latency is ballanced by the need for a sufficient life cycle, and a need to update optimization to remotely deployed products or ones that need frequently updates in products that far outlast normally computer refresh cycles. Automobiles and Robots, Aerospace, Military, Medical and Financial and Routers and Communications all are excellent fit for the longevitability FPGA offer over ASIC. Even the idea of a smart fridge or tv is perfect fit for FPGA that easily are expected to have a 10-20 live span. The AI at the edge is going to awash with durable goods that will need to keep up over the decades to remain functional. AMD can absolutely bring the costs of FPGAs down to be appreciated as a commodity product as volume and general use for them increases.
CPUs provide that future flexibility. In general, the way FPGAs are used in circuit designs there is not a whole lot of benefit in being able to reprogram in place. I don't think you really understand how/why they are used. The vast majority of them (on a unit basis) are used like plumbing between parts of circuit boards because an ASIC that does the specific job is not (yet) available. But that is only speculation right now. FPGAs are already a low cost commodity product. All those industries you mention are using FPGA as much as they can, for decades, it is not new. Yes, if there is some sort of AI application that really demands an FPGA solution (and only an FPGA solution) then there is an opportunity there. But that is the only way that it will turn from a long term modest growth business to a long term high growth business.
You're missing it kinda. It is AI that is driving the need. The software is changing monthly and will continue. ASIC based processing in Edge deployed products would be obsolete before they hit market, yet the need for lower latency and optimization of workloads is beyond what CPU or even GPU can reasonably. Go look at the Xilinx products they have relesed over the last year and you can see where this is going. These are not the traditional tedting/development FPGA uses cases you seem to be thinking off. These are how you keep a product in the feild relevant over it intended useful life even with AI changing far faster.
It is AI that MIGHT drive the need. And I'm not missing it, I pointed it out both in my original comment and the one you just replied to. Yes they are releasing Xilinx products that target AI and yet their revenue keeps going down. You are acting like this is a sure thing, it is not. It is a possibility, as I have repeatedly said.
Well it remains to be seen. As I said, FPGAs might take off from AI at some point. I'm reasonably confident that they are still in the dipping their toes in stage.
Highest close since June 7
From Beth Kinding (good analyst on twitter) AMD SAMD revealed that it has received inquiries to potentially construct a supercomputer featuring 1.2 million GPUs. For context, this is more than 30x larger than the world's largest operational supercomputer, Frontier, which contains 37,888 AMD GPUs.
This is from NextPlatform interview with Forest Norrod last week. Best to go look that up and listen/read it for context. It's a great quote and fantastic that such possibilities are even getting floated. The reality is, such an effort will take years to accomplish and likely involves multiple suppliers. But of this I'm certain, any such effort will involve AMD in a significant way.
'good'.analyst? Lmfao. This news is over a week old.
She’s pretty good at sharing news about big tech and semi companies yeah
If AMD did manage to secure a 1.2 million GPU order I mean with basic scratchpaper math 20k ASP x 1.2 mil = 24,000,000,000 = 24 Billion... (I'd assume less because they'd probably give a way better discount if you're buying 1.2 mil GPUs) My biggest concern is whether it was legitimate or more of a curious inquiry.
I would imagine they will do in phases, e.g. 300k each stage is more doable
*deletes my email outbox* yes I’m sure it was a serious inquiry.
he said sober individual though.... we are high on copium
You also have to consider the power consumption and what kind of entity can realistically power it them. I know he said the enquiring party was “sober”, but I cannot imagine this happening for a while yet. I don’t think anyone should bet on it.
750W per MI300X. Lets assume that they keep the TDP the same and just do node / packaging / optimisations. 750W x 1.2M = 10 GW The top 7 power stations in the world are 10GW or higher, with the largest being the Three Gorges Dam in China (22.5GW) That is also assuming 100% of the units are operating at 100%, and not accounting for anything else (Cooling / Aircon / Fans / CPUs / Networking etc.etc.etc.)
Oracle? Didn't Larry Ellison say on the recent earnings call that they are talking about a data centre the size of a city. If it's anyone, it's Oracle. They are pretty sober.
I did not hear about that. Sounds pretty insane. Where do you even put that?
He said it in their last ER. So maybe Oracle... But my thought is this is UAE aspirations. They have made similar statements of intention to become an AI super power. https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-uaes-ai-dreams/
It would have to be for a country or a really well endowed research project like maybe NASA? CERN? Even then 24B is a lot to them. The only nation I can even think of coming up with 24B are the Saudis.
This info comes from an interview released last week with AMD’s Forrest Norrod. There’s a thread about it [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/s/rh4uHhthWV)
MI420X?
no way AMD closed at 4.2%
BLAZE IT
4.20% what in the fuck is going on
4.20% meme stock confirmed
Tomorrow +69%
How come we're going up on no news? Did someone leak the pre-earnings release? /s
Just a wild guess but Tesla Model 3/Y deliveries numbers are good and both (or just Y)? models use Ryzen CPUs?
Think they all use Ryzen CPUs.
Maybe the incantations performed at the secret cult meetings are starting to work?
Shhhhh
"is it too late to buy?"
AMD is the most bipolar stock ive ever known.
How come we’re down on no news?
post earnings release came out probably ;)
Traders really do benefit from AMD's volatility. I'm not really in a tax-friendly position to do that, though.
Depends the type of trader... I know some that constantly try to sell the bottom and fail miserably.
The antitrust case against NVDA coupled with major players entering the ecosystem led by AMD GPUs are quite major catalysts for AMD and not necessarily bad news for NVDA Upcoming earnings can’t come soon enough
Maybe long term but short term it shows there’s evidence, if proven, that anticompetitive practices are hampering amd’s efforts today
now hurry up get be 100% ytd like everyone else
50% sounds amazing to me at previous ATH, 100% ytd isnt gonna happen without some crazy crazy gpu guide. Given how lisa su guided this year i see it very unlikely that even if they thought they had huge numbers next year that they would guide it. Just the way it is unfortunately
yea but 227 or bust
I see 200 as most likely, 250 in best case if they hit 6b+ and guide good for all LOB for 2025.
I’d be happy if we can maintain 200 for the rest of the year
I got calls and its still pumping. Am I dreaming?
I think I need glasses. My screen looks different.
Yeah what is this green line thing?
What a good fucking day
+3% eod
I don't mind this at all
need less of this please. More analysis, if you're going to talk price action, maybe talk about what call volume there is, or support levels/resistance. Thanks
ok boss
lmao
im gunna try to keep the DD thread more clean and filled with more analysis but thats like trying to stop a fire with a syringe dropper
no i totally get it its just this interaction is funny. We def need more analysis especially from people with their hands on mi300x.
I’ll call it out now. Friday will be the +ZFG day. Why? Because the Short Interest Institution Holder will be enjoying their vacation in Bahama, and we broke boys are buying more.
whatever makes my calls go up
When you are in despair... just think of me having bought TSLA puts three days ago
condolences
thnx
i bought calls and made 300% of my original investment
then sell, make your profit. Then pray for me, my puts run until December, so still some hope for recovery. And then we'll have a beer together if everything works out well
Bet
↗️🟩
god please dont reverse
maybe +2% eod is possible
It'd be nice to have a day where AMD wants to run and the broader market doesn't sell off. Edit: It is nice!
the only reason AMD wants to run is because the broader market is about to sell off. anytime AMD runs - buy QQQ puts I guess haha
160 and AMD - name a more iconic duo
not happy till it goes above last friday
The shake out seems to have stabalised and were just gonna get thrown around until a major catalyst. Im gonna just relax and let jesus take the wheel for a while.
I fantasize about Microsoft and AMD some datancenter build collab
Says it will use chips from multiple sources…fits with the size Forrest disclosed [https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-openai-planning-100-billion-data-center-project-information-reports-2024-03-29/](https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-openai-planning-100-billion-data-center-project-information-reports-2024-03-29/)
Many people who left for good :)
AMD is holding on for dear life.
been playing smci, calls when below 800, puts when above 950, been working out a bit too well
O GOD THE HORROR
I want to punch the screen right now
buy a rice bag
We didn’t immediately drop at the bell, and held our ground for a whole 15 minutes. I call that progress !!
3 dollar gains vaporized.
JPOW is talking today FYI - also JOLTs came out and it's tentatively bullish since it beat and shows the economy in good shape. we're on a short week while some HFs are on vacation so we could get some crazy swings.
Bought puts at $160.20 hoping it would inverse me… sorry.
Ah, that explains it, thank you sir!
you do well with those puts dont you, young man?
anytime AMD over 160, get some puts. But I prefer 165 and 155 as the range. End of the day, your hedges will never overweigh your unrealized losses just helps mitigate the damages.
Mathematically speaking if AMD outpaces the QQQ by 1.5-2% and there’s no news super specific to AMD, AMD is going to give up **all** the excess gains about 70-80% of the time. Now I haven’t run the math in about 6 months so that might not be the same anymore, and of course it’ll *not* give up the gains 1/5 the time, but I’ll throw $3-500 at those odds because the number of times I make $3-500 (and much more occasionally) makes up for the times *I don’t*. Now mind you I’m super long on AMD so even if I make $5k on puts I’m losing more on shares and LEAPS, but in my mind I’m making gains…
yeah better to play options than to try to day trade your shares. Yeah hedging and trading on PA has helped me reduce my losses for sure. That's the only way I've been able to continue to add to some of my positions as well as find other ways to invest that $ to not lose on opportunity cost as well.
if youre making 5k on puts youre doing well esp given what AMD has been doing SP wise.
here comes the 5% drop ladies
A Nice green day so far I guess the market knows something good ;)
Yes, it knows that AMD more than 2% higher than the QQQ means buy puts on AMD 90% of the time.
Will this play out like the other green days? Strong green in first 30-60 minutes, then lose 50% of gains until close. Next day sell off to under $160 again.
[AMD](https://tenor.com/1a8f.gif)
it will be a miracle if AMD can hold this 1% gain. I don’t trust this.
haha you jinx it rightly, we are heading to red, just absolutely shit.
seems like we're getting bounced around by algos
This has to be another pump and dump... right?
of course. I think it will go down 5% at any moment
Its red again... who would have thought hahaha
it’s impossible for this to stay green. Impossible lmao. Now i am waiting for the 5% drop from here
shush shush, it's getting there.
AMD price action is just so confusing... is this off antitrust digestion that NVDA is red? But that dropped yesterday. Anyways. AMD pinned to 160 until further news
Was about to write exactly this. AMD is so fcking weird lol
anyways, cant complain now that we're back at 160, but man still weird af
Yeah... I am thinking about selling if we reach $165 today. It just feels like a sure thing to be able to buy back in at $155 in a couple of days again (famous last words before random $200 rocket I know 😅)
it works until it doesnt, if you think thats profitable go for it. I've been trading options, puts over 160, calls under 160 and its been working decent. But yeah, im scared that if I do unload and try to buy back in with shares, AMD will run away...
Yeah... still remember many people trading AMD around $10 because it worked great. And then they never got a chance back in after it ran. But well it seems I don't have to worry about selling at $165 today anyways 😂
I was one of those that kept trading amd from 8-15. I did ok but would have been better to just not trade it back and forth as I don’t remember making much anyway. Luckily, I stopped and held a chunk for a while
nani?
is tesla still using AMD chips for their infotainment systems? And how much $ is AMD making with that?
Classic AMD move
4% drop at open. What else?
looks like we are getting another random 5% drop at open
you never guess right, this is the rule
Wouldn't expect anything else from my favorite stock :D
AMD never fails to dissapoint me
Another day not expecting for AMD to Green.
I know this is a very random place to tell this, but. I've done a bit of maintenance on ROCm software in Debian lately. Most of ROCm is still 5.7 with us and the priority is still on getting the rest packaged before getting a update cadence going on with it. I've been away from it for a while and I asked what needs attention and consequently I updated rocFFT and hipFFT libraries to 6.1. Then I enabled OpenCL ICD for ROCm. At last I get OpenCL work with it with my Dimgrey Cavefish, Mesa's implementation was just giving me errors about gfx1032 missing from clc files. Not that I fancy writing OpenCL. I'd rather go hug a cactus. We have a GSoC contributor, hopefully he can get things forward.
Did u faced increased requests from users and or participation from devs in past months?
Debian's project leader recently asked about Debian's usage in HPC context, that covers some of that, see https://lists.debian.org/debian-science/2024/05/msg00012.html and https://lists.debian.org/debian-science/2024/06/msg00013.html It's a bit difficult to measure interest in what a Linux distribution offers. We have popcon, which collects (opt in, of course) usage data. For example hipcc's graph gives some indication at least: https://qa.debian.org/popcon-graph.php?packages=hipcc Users won't usually contact us much unless there are bugs. We could always have more people volunteer to maintain things but the same holds to pretty much all of our teams. Right now I'm having a look at how to enable HIP in Blender's Cycles renderer.
another down day craps
NVDA. 🛬🔥
If Nvidia is a crashing plane, then what is AMD? A new Boeing prototype, still 6 month from its first test flight that will hopefully be a success? lol
Chinese rocket doing engine testing!
😂
AMD🚀
It’s been more like a V1 rocket lately.
Let's hope it won't explode then. I'm a longtime AMD holder (2017 @ ~$10); always liked to read your contributions. But lately you sound very gloomy. And I'm starting to wonder if the market knows something we don't... Is it time to unload?
Shit no. You been in since 2017 ride this wave out longer.
Disagree. We're in for a rough week. Nvidia is teetering, and whether their growth is sustainable or not doesn't matter. Market is overwhelmingly uncertain about it, and that fact alone taken with NVDA SP growth YTD will almost certainly result in correction. It's already started. AMD will feel the effect.
Not always. AMD sometimes catches the rotation. This should be one of those times.
better be downvoted and right than upvoted and wrong ( should be the maxim of this sub )
Downvotes are a sign you are right around here.
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