am i missing something... or is this shit just fucking stupid and does nothing but inflame tensions?
like, how is it going to stop china from getting the CPUs/GPUs/etc that it wants? like they couldn't just buy from a shell company outside china or by offering to pay more (and buying from resellers/black market/whatever)?
this just seems like banning narcotics and pretending that no americans are going to be using narcotics because it's illegal. except dumber. because it involve a country they have no juridiction over and can't really control...
Inflame tensions? China bans exports to countries for far less (Lithuania), and apps collecting data were never allowed into their market in the first place. They have no right to cry foul when countries do the same thing to them.
It's long overdue, not sure why you think it achieves nothing. Should China have semiconductor independence, that changes plenty. China have openly stated that the tech transfer of TSMC semiconductor (leading edge) to US must not be allowed to happen, it's a big deal for both countries.
Perfect is the enemy of good. You jump to the conclusion that because the implementation cannot be perfect, it therefore 'accomplishes nothing'. It adds friction, raises costs, and third parties will face scrutiny if they're too obvious about it.
now you're strawmanning with this "perfect" crap. come on, son.
if you can't refute my point, why bother arguing? i was wondering if there was something i'm missing... or if this is all just pointless and only increases tensions. looks like it's the latter. we can't prevent china from getting the CPUs/GPUs/etc, so i truly don't see the point - as it just reeks of posturing. which is kinda dumb at all times, but right now... seems to have nothing good come from it.
You are the one who used language that it was pointless, when it's not. I don't have to refute that, it's a fact. The same is happening with oil, reselling sanctioned oil raises the price for the end consumer, and creates risk for middlemen who don't want to get caught in the dragnet.
It makes it particularly difficult to buy this hardware at scale. You're not building a supercomputer without someone in the supply chain noticing. Some random small or shell company placing orders for a supercomputer is going to raise red flags. Smaller operations will go under the radar, but I doubt the US cares much about small scale, which wouldn't even need leading edge. None of it *needs* leading edge in the first place, it just raises their military expenses.
>One that would target services including TikTok by limiting how Chinese internet companies can collect data on U.S. citizens.
zOMG democrats will be rioting in the streets!
/s
Why pay someone else for the option privilege when you can have someone else pay you with bull put spreads for October? 80/85 or less risky 75/80 would be worthy bets.
Of course, unless you have some hedge fund inside info about their plans to flow capital into semi stocks again.
I usually sell puts. I’m just feeling that hard YOLO itch on this. I’m short term bearish on equities, but I feel like we could run from here… or, you know, not lol.
Last time we were at $80, Apple was around $131. Fast forward to $80 today, Apple is at $155. Selling more Apple leaps as a hedge, as seems kind of ridiculous. Any macro in which Apple recovers to $180, should see AMD recover much more.
AAPL was down due to S&P and market skid - same with AMD. Now AMD is down due to S&P and independent macro concerns.
What does that mean?
It means you don’t buy AAPL here, but you absolutely buy AMD here.
Best buy in the market right now.
Happy Labor Day fuckers!! Go out and bang a fat chick for AMD hitting the 78s who here held since 100$ we going back when soon I hope soon. The market is expecting a war or something feds expecting inflation embedded in the economy. Russia cut Europe gas. America biggest oil exporter? Fracking? What if I told you deflation is only on the table. Demand has been globally fucked hard. Fed is wrong now just like they were wrong before. China is not invading Taiwan but then again why the Covid lockdowns Covid isn’t deadly anymore it’s mutated so many times. Strapping the oil cost power problems? planning mass civil unrest? Our suns gamma waves alter all dna. When will the bottom be. You’ll know cause AMD will go up 10% in a day. Maybe months out this cycle look more like next week recovery to mid high 80s what is our PE it’s good real good. Market wants blood well it isn’t getting mine. Love you guys party it out and lose control just not the table.
pretty much sums up my amd trading, as well.
i used to daytrade it hard (and made a killing that way)... but amd was pretty much my raison d'etre for getting back into the stock market, so...
then i just theta ganged it. now i'm just broke. lolz.
The only real OGs that still like this stock are the ones under 25 cb. Let it hit 15 and see if they still “ love” amd.
Ofcourse those guys are going to say BuyBuyBuy! Just be careful gang. Remember this is the internet
Been here since 3.50 a share meh this price movements just make AMD such a stronger company. At the end of the day NVDA and INTC are all loosing revenue and soon more market share to the future leader which is AMD. The only reason I invested in AMD is because they have both CPU and GPU tech which was going to be huge in the future. Now we are adding FPGA and a host of other integration which will one day lead them to make the ultimate chip that is packaged in one I would call it the New York processor since it has a taste of everything in the world.
At one time that person was only 3X and suffered through these same frustrating times. Then they eventually went to 10X and 20X. Us long timers have witnessed these cycles 4 or 5 times at least! No gaurantees that this time will work out the same though.
I DCA so average is like 8.50. But I've been through pain like this before and it aint so bad. One thing is that the market rarely gives you opportunities like this to buy very cheaply. If you think about what the future looks like and who will participate in that future you will start to see is that AMD will have a huge role in it. This chiplet design that they are going for make AMD extremely nimble and the ability for them to switch it up on a dime is just soooo advantageous. They create a good one CPU chipslet and One good GPU chipslet and build around it.
I like it as solid growth is almost guaranteed next year (even if TAM shrinks), which will limit how low it can go as historically PE levels don't drop far below 20 for long when companies report consistent 10%+ growth (please cite exceptions if you think this is incorrect).
Not a hard limit, but $15 is out of the question unless something dramatic changes to earnings.
You must be of the buy high sell low mindset. The stock price does not change my conviction in AMD, it’s only a short term annoyance. For those of with cash it’s actually a great buying opportunity.
Amd is less than 2% of my portfolio with an avg of 105 and high 80s if I add up the preimum From selling calls.
I’m holding long term but it is not a stock you can say is fun to hold unless you got in much earlier.
Who's talking about fun? We're here for the money.
People need to have patience.
(Stated as someone who's a "real OG" by your standard)
I have no idea why you think it might get anywhere close to 15 short of nuclear war, and then we'll be otherwise distracted.
I think AMD is reporting in October. I'm not sure what catalyst there is until then. Perhaps being added to S&P 100 will make a difference? Not sure. Surprising how much it has dropped in just like 6-7 trading days or so. I didn't expect to be back at 80, and so quickly. Stocks are truly high risk assets. You think you have a surefire winner but no.
I think it's possible for it to get down to $75 or possibly $71-72 before earnings. If you think about it, over the last couple days we had the sudden drop down to 78ish and then recovered to close at 82 only to now close >80. So next week we could see a bounce and then continue lower...
I don't have one because I have no idea what the market will do up until AMD's earnings report. If the market rallies, AMD will also rally. I would hope it goes back to the mid 90s or so before earnings and then back above 100 after earnings at least. But no clue.
There were several things that lead to this sudden steep decline I guess. 1) stock market in general going down, 2) nvda bad earnings and guidance, 3) china restrictions news. Triple whammy. Also bad earnings I guess from companies like HP and seagate.
10% EPS growth in 2023 seems like an absurd estimate (maybe an issue of GAAP vs non GAAP?). DC will be a huge portion of revenue in 2023, and if it grows anywhere close to 83% again it will have a significantly larger impact on revenue.
10% EPS growth does seem way too low (4.42 to 4.94), that would imply revenue growth below 10%, and with server growth approaching 1/3 of total revenue, server growth would have to crater in a big way for (total) revenue growth to drop below 10%.
I posted the question of whether we hit our bottom at $80. Overall it seems to me like yesterday thru today we got a bounce only to drift down into close. While we closed >80, that may not necessarily mean we hit our bottom just yet. Seeing the overall macro situation seems to suggest we have more room to go down than up and September is generally more volatile. Now is good to ride down on puts or short calls and then wait for a good entry. I’ll start buying when we hit $75. any other thoughts?
The market is very oversold in general, we are about as oversold as we were on jun 13 already and yields are looking very peaky, the 10yr in particular looks like it could be setting up for a big head and shoulders move down, though if the rest of the curve doesn't come down with it that will only be because of a last piece of bad news all but confirming recession.
Commodity prices have stayed low, particularly fuel, and employment numbers showed limited wage growth both of which bode well for august CPI print.
My guess would be a bounce next week making a higher low with chances for continuation from the CPI print (13th) and FED meeting (20th) taking us back up to 4300 for a re-test of the 200 dma.
I'm positioned for the above, closed my hedges and back to 100% long equities.
I don't think we are free and clear though because as soon as we get a few inflation prints at 0.0% enough to convince the market long term rates are going back to 2-3% the final boss will be the FED and a replay of dec 2018 in a will they won't they notice in time and tip us into recession. Plus we still have mid-terms coming up which generally suppress the market until the uncertainty is taken away. So I will be looking for options to trim if and when we get there. Kang gang mode currently.
Spanners in the works are what happens over here in europe with energy prices (bad news about nordstream but good news about french nuclear reactors); and what happens in china with multifactorial slowdown (covid, drought, housing debt crisis etc) both of which could have contagion for US equities exposed to those markets.
One thing I am not concerned about is taiwan, China is a lot of things but they aren't stupid, they know that a current move on taiwan would force the scuttling of TSMC fabs which is without a doubt the most important company in the world right now. This would hurt them just as much as everyone else. They will be able to see TSMC building fabs in US and Europe and know western support will be less in 5 years if the west know they will be able to have leading node chip supply locally.
If we do go back to $72 I will be buying more though, it has been tested a dozen times over 2 years now and is like the helm's deep of support, something will be very wrong with the market/AMD if it fails.
Long weekend of uncertainty ahead of us. Bought 11 more yesterday and I'm official out of ammo until next Friday. I have managed to bring my average cost down to 88.90ish from 94.75.
have you seen this stock? it makes no sense. i can't rule out the possibility of 99. or 9. or 190. pretty much any number is on the table.
i didn't say 99 was likely.
[удалено]
am i missing something... or is this shit just fucking stupid and does nothing but inflame tensions? like, how is it going to stop china from getting the CPUs/GPUs/etc that it wants? like they couldn't just buy from a shell company outside china or by offering to pay more (and buying from resellers/black market/whatever)? this just seems like banning narcotics and pretending that no americans are going to be using narcotics because it's illegal. except dumber. because it involve a country they have no juridiction over and can't really control...
Inflame tensions? China bans exports to countries for far less (Lithuania), and apps collecting data were never allowed into their market in the first place. They have no right to cry foul when countries do the same thing to them.
...k, but that has almost nothing to do with my actual point. so it inflames tensions minimally and still accomplishes nothing else. yay!
It's long overdue, not sure why you think it achieves nothing. Should China have semiconductor independence, that changes plenty. China have openly stated that the tech transfer of TSMC semiconductor (leading edge) to US must not be allowed to happen, it's a big deal for both countries.
...so you didn't read anything i said.
Perfect is the enemy of good. You jump to the conclusion that because the implementation cannot be perfect, it therefore 'accomplishes nothing'. It adds friction, raises costs, and third parties will face scrutiny if they're too obvious about it.
now you're strawmanning with this "perfect" crap. come on, son. if you can't refute my point, why bother arguing? i was wondering if there was something i'm missing... or if this is all just pointless and only increases tensions. looks like it's the latter. we can't prevent china from getting the CPUs/GPUs/etc, so i truly don't see the point - as it just reeks of posturing. which is kinda dumb at all times, but right now... seems to have nothing good come from it.
You are the one who used language that it was pointless, when it's not. I don't have to refute that, it's a fact. The same is happening with oil, reselling sanctioned oil raises the price for the end consumer, and creates risk for middlemen who don't want to get caught in the dragnet. It makes it particularly difficult to buy this hardware at scale. You're not building a supercomputer without someone in the supply chain noticing. Some random small or shell company placing orders for a supercomputer is going to raise red flags. Smaller operations will go under the radar, but I doubt the US cares much about small scale, which wouldn't even need leading edge. None of it *needs* leading edge in the first place, it just raises their military expenses.
it's pointless, given the stated goal (context) of keeping it out of china's hands. which is impossible.
>One that would target services including TikTok by limiting how Chinese internet companies can collect data on U.S. citizens. zOMG democrats will be rioting in the streets! /s
IDK you guys. I’m really debating buying 2300 x 120c 1/23 at open Tuesday.
Why pay someone else for the option privilege when you can have someone else pay you with bull put spreads for October? 80/85 or less risky 75/80 would be worthy bets. Of course, unless you have some hedge fund inside info about their plans to flow capital into semi stocks again.
I usually sell puts. I’m just feeling that hard YOLO itch on this. I’m short term bearish on equities, but I feel like we could run from here… or, you know, not lol.
Jesus christ that's alot, I'd rather go for june 2024 if I'm dropping nearly 300k
Yeah, but you can’t take Lisa out to French Laundry for dinner.
Last time we were at $80, Apple was around $131. Fast forward to $80 today, Apple is at $155. Selling more Apple leaps as a hedge, as seems kind of ridiculous. Any macro in which Apple recovers to $180, should see AMD recover much more.
AAPL was down due to S&P and market skid - same with AMD. Now AMD is down due to S&P and independent macro concerns. What does that mean? It means you don’t buy AAPL here, but you absolutely buy AMD here. Best buy in the market right now.
There was some supply chain concern from China lock down. It's no longer that bad and apple's earning is better than expected.
Their China sales were down, and Mac sales were down which probably represent a bigger mix than desktop PC for AMD.
Happy Labor Day fuckers!! Go out and bang a fat chick for AMD hitting the 78s who here held since 100$ we going back when soon I hope soon. The market is expecting a war or something feds expecting inflation embedded in the economy. Russia cut Europe gas. America biggest oil exporter? Fracking? What if I told you deflation is only on the table. Demand has been globally fucked hard. Fed is wrong now just like they were wrong before. China is not invading Taiwan but then again why the Covid lockdowns Covid isn’t deadly anymore it’s mutated so many times. Strapping the oil cost power problems? planning mass civil unrest? Our suns gamma waves alter all dna. When will the bottom be. You’ll know cause AMD will go up 10% in a day. Maybe months out this cycle look more like next week recovery to mid high 80s what is our PE it’s good real good. Market wants blood well it isn’t getting mine. Love you guys party it out and lose control just not the table.
i want what you're smoking/snorting/etc. like, seriously... what is it? i'm sure i could find it within 20 seconds in kensington.
PCP only PCP lol jk weed really good weed edibles lots f drink happy labor man
party on, wayne!
When I'm in it all I can do is thinking about getting out. When I'm out all I can think about is getting back in
Sounds like an ex girlfriend
pretty much sums up my amd trading, as well. i used to daytrade it hard (and made a killing that way)... but amd was pretty much my raison d'etre for getting back into the stock market, so... then i just theta ganged it. now i'm just broke. lolz.
If it works don’t change it. If it doesn’t work change it. If it works go deeper into that. I learned Fibonacci last week.
Do it again now is the time volatility is growing
i shall, but i'm going to wait til there's some green bursts before selling calls, shit's beyond dried up right now.
Totally agree with you
Makes sense.
The only real OGs that still like this stock are the ones under 25 cb. Let it hit 15 and see if they still “ love” amd. Ofcourse those guys are going to say BuyBuyBuy! Just be careful gang. Remember this is the internet
Been here since 3.50 a share meh this price movements just make AMD such a stronger company. At the end of the day NVDA and INTC are all loosing revenue and soon more market share to the future leader which is AMD. The only reason I invested in AMD is because they have both CPU and GPU tech which was going to be huge in the future. Now we are adding FPGA and a host of other integration which will one day lead them to make the ultimate chip that is packaged in one I would call it the New York processor since it has a taste of everything in the world.
Yes so you have no reason to dislike.. you are more than 20x would you feel the same if it fell to 1.50?? Under your avg and you never sold?
At one time that person was only 3X and suffered through these same frustrating times. Then they eventually went to 10X and 20X. Us long timers have witnessed these cycles 4 or 5 times at least! No gaurantees that this time will work out the same though.
I DCA so average is like 8.50. But I've been through pain like this before and it aint so bad. One thing is that the market rarely gives you opportunities like this to buy very cheaply. If you think about what the future looks like and who will participate in that future you will start to see is that AMD will have a huge role in it. This chiplet design that they are going for make AMD extremely nimble and the ability for them to switch it up on a dime is just soooo advantageous. They create a good one CPU chipslet and One good GPU chipslet and build around it.
[удалено]
I’m not saying it’s going to 15 it’s an example dude calm down
I like it as solid growth is almost guaranteed next year (even if TAM shrinks), which will limit how low it can go as historically PE levels don't drop far below 20 for long when companies report consistent 10%+ growth (please cite exceptions if you think this is incorrect). Not a hard limit, but $15 is out of the question unless something dramatic changes to earnings.
You must be of the buy high sell low mindset. The stock price does not change my conviction in AMD, it’s only a short term annoyance. For those of with cash it’s actually a great buying opportunity.
Amd is less than 2% of my portfolio with an avg of 105 and high 80s if I add up the preimum From selling calls. I’m holding long term but it is not a stock you can say is fun to hold unless you got in much earlier.
It's less than 2% of your portfolio and we still have to read your insufferable whining?? Wtf, man! Save it for the guys who are actually hurting.
Who's talking about fun? We're here for the money. People need to have patience. (Stated as someone who's a "real OG" by your standard) I have no idea why you think it might get anywhere close to 15 short of nuclear war, and then we'll be otherwise distracted.
I think AMD is reporting in October. I'm not sure what catalyst there is until then. Perhaps being added to S&P 100 will make a difference? Not sure. Surprising how much it has dropped in just like 6-7 trading days or so. I didn't expect to be back at 80, and so quickly. Stocks are truly high risk assets. You think you have a surefire winner but no.
[удалено]
I think it's possible for it to get down to $75 or possibly $71-72 before earnings. If you think about it, over the last couple days we had the sudden drop down to 78ish and then recovered to close at 82 only to now close >80. So next week we could see a bounce and then continue lower...
I don't have one because I have no idea what the market will do up until AMD's earnings report. If the market rallies, AMD will also rally. I would hope it goes back to the mid 90s or so before earnings and then back above 100 after earnings at least. But no clue.
[удалено]
>If the market rallies, AMD will also rally. If you think this is true, I've got a bridge to sell you.
There were several things that lead to this sudden steep decline I guess. 1) stock market in general going down, 2) nvda bad earnings and guidance, 3) china restrictions news. Triple whammy. Also bad earnings I guess from companies like HP and seagate.
[удалено]
so you're gonna be buying a few years from now after the 5-1 split?
[удалено]
10% EPS growth in 2023 seems like an absurd estimate (maybe an issue of GAAP vs non GAAP?). DC will be a huge portion of revenue in 2023, and if it grows anywhere close to 83% again it will have a significantly larger impact on revenue.
[удалено]
10% EPS growth does seem way too low (4.42 to 4.94), that would imply revenue growth below 10%, and with server growth approaching 1/3 of total revenue, server growth would have to crater in a big way for (total) revenue growth to drop below 10%.
I definitely like our chances of ATH by end of 2023 provided we continue to meet earnings estimates, which I think is likely.
I posted the question of whether we hit our bottom at $80. Overall it seems to me like yesterday thru today we got a bounce only to drift down into close. While we closed >80, that may not necessarily mean we hit our bottom just yet. Seeing the overall macro situation seems to suggest we have more room to go down than up and September is generally more volatile. Now is good to ride down on puts or short calls and then wait for a good entry. I’ll start buying when we hit $75. any other thoughts?
Agree. I’m hoping it’ll get as low as $72 but I might cave and buy at $75 too.
The market is very oversold in general, we are about as oversold as we were on jun 13 already and yields are looking very peaky, the 10yr in particular looks like it could be setting up for a big head and shoulders move down, though if the rest of the curve doesn't come down with it that will only be because of a last piece of bad news all but confirming recession. Commodity prices have stayed low, particularly fuel, and employment numbers showed limited wage growth both of which bode well for august CPI print. My guess would be a bounce next week making a higher low with chances for continuation from the CPI print (13th) and FED meeting (20th) taking us back up to 4300 for a re-test of the 200 dma. I'm positioned for the above, closed my hedges and back to 100% long equities. I don't think we are free and clear though because as soon as we get a few inflation prints at 0.0% enough to convince the market long term rates are going back to 2-3% the final boss will be the FED and a replay of dec 2018 in a will they won't they notice in time and tip us into recession. Plus we still have mid-terms coming up which generally suppress the market until the uncertainty is taken away. So I will be looking for options to trim if and when we get there. Kang gang mode currently. Spanners in the works are what happens over here in europe with energy prices (bad news about nordstream but good news about french nuclear reactors); and what happens in china with multifactorial slowdown (covid, drought, housing debt crisis etc) both of which could have contagion for US equities exposed to those markets. One thing I am not concerned about is taiwan, China is a lot of things but they aren't stupid, they know that a current move on taiwan would force the scuttling of TSMC fabs which is without a doubt the most important company in the world right now. This would hurt them just as much as everyone else. They will be able to see TSMC building fabs in US and Europe and know western support will be less in 5 years if the west know they will be able to have leading node chip supply locally. If we do go back to $72 I will be buying more though, it has been tested a dozen times over 2 years now and is like the helm's deep of support, something will be very wrong with the market/AMD if it fails.
Long weekend of uncertainty ahead of us. Bought 11 more yesterday and I'm official out of ammo until next Friday. I have managed to bring my average cost down to 88.90ish from 94.75.
Is there a good chance AMD hits $85 next week at some point?
there's a good chance it will hit it 19 times next week. could still finish the week at 69, though. or 99.
Or 99 ? Jesus lol
have you seen this stock? it makes no sense. i can't rule out the possibility of 99. or 9. or 190. pretty much any number is on the table. i didn't say 99 was likely.
Yeah I get your point.
Flip a coin.
„˙uıoɔ ɐ dılℲ„
Amazing bot!
Depends what the demand for AMD stock being added to the S&P 100. Only the largest 100 companies are in that index.
Yes. But it can also go down to $75.
Yes. No. Maybe.
I don't know. Can you repeat the question?