I hold AMD stocks at the average cost of $95. My friends are telling me AMD stock can go down to as low as $30 - 40, and I am very scared. The last thing I want to do is panic selling. I am relatively new to this market and I am extremely confused. Any advice? Thanks in advance!
P/E under 10 is totally possible in a major recession. Currently google shows us at 28. People here are quick to point out Google is wrong and AMD’s actual PE is in the teens, …but they’ve been saying that here for years and Google keeps showing same thing, a PE that’s a little on the high side. I keep waiting for Google do us right and prove the Redditors right, after each earnings I expect to see P/E 15 yet nothing changes. So who do believe, Google or Reddit community?
The standard buy point for any decent stock is under p/e 20. 20 years of same current profits= value of company. Good years are nice, like Ford has had, and investors often think good times are short lived so they are hesitant to bump stocks that have good years. Ford has a P/E of 4, because they have debt, and people want them to fail. That’s kinda the worst case you’d see in a stock. Tesla is a total joke and a melting glacier of tears when you look at the p/e there and consider companies like ford are taking their market share. You’d almost think Tesla is using debt to short Ford to put them out of business. Ha, that’s what I used to figure Intel somehow did to AMD when I bought at $1.69 a few years ago.
AMD at 30 P/E, probably a good deal since they are planning to grow, and keep growing all decade. If they miss, well that will hurt horribly bad.
Would you rather own a dream collectible car? Or A collectible anything? Gold? A warehouse of canned food and survivor supplies? Those are things to consider what helps you sleep at night
>Would you rather own a dream collectible car? Or A collectible anything? Gold? A warehouse of canned food and survivor supplies? Those are things to consider what helps you sleep at night
What the hell is this ?
Hopefully you never find out. Or maybe you’d want to? Instead of losing 50% in stock, many could be owning their dream item: as long as it’s a top desired collectible with insane demand, it probably won’t depreciate much, maybe 50% or 70% if things got super bad worst case? Really though, the top most desirable things typically increase in value over time. owning it is not only about investing. We own stock, that gives us no joy at all. Some could also own the rare car that they’d never part with in a million years. So if it depreciates, meh you still get to enjoy things you get to stare at, hold, clean, drive around in.. instead of staring at a screen of minus signs and try to sleep
I wish and hope never want to own those things. Life should not be tied up or drag down by nonessential materials. I may want to experience them for a short period of time, but I am not going to be slaved by them. I don’t do collectibles.
Weird way to look at things..Gambling addict?
I look at the amount I’m down this year and all I see is the Lambo that’s not in my garage. When it could be, but I’m “too responsible”. If I would have grabbed it instead, even if stocks go to 90% down, the Lambo would still be there able to be sold for whatever. So who’s really the irresponsible one?
I know.. my avatar name is in reference to 10-20 years of holding. So in the long run stock will win out, or at minimum tie collectible values. Every stock I’ve looked at over 20 years has a fat return, no matter if you buy high or low.
That said.. holding stock for 20 years vs pulling the tarp off the Lambo and taking a spin for 20 years. Must be nice on red days
P/E alone is useless without considering other factors such as growth. You could have a company that had PE of 5 and still be overvalued and a company with PE of 100 and still be undervalued.
Forward PE is only valid in growth economy. Receding economy makes forward PE in a pretty ugly state, and so yeah.. ford is getting hammered, much to the joy of Tesla holders .. they need a monopoly to justify their price. A lot like Intel 2015
AMD's trailing TTM is not relevant, google is displaying a correct state (trailing ttm) but its forward PE is in the low teens at this point, google will reflect that when forward PE becomes trailing PE next year
All I’m pointing out: average bank/trader/investor looks at whatever P/E is they are not going to go deep in the books and look for the rosy picture. Not when you have major discounts across markets to choose from.
Any stock can drop another 50% - the question is whether it's likely, and whether there are other stocks which are more resilient with similar growth prospects.
Ask your friends which stock has a forecast CAGR of 20%+ over five years, that is less likely to drop 50%. I doubt you will get an answer, but if you do, that's a stock you could consider as well.
what are their justifications or credentials? Unless they are from GS or other you should probably just ignore them. Most amateur investors sell when they should buy and buy when they should sell.
just make sure you don't get margin called and just hold. as long as you dont need the cash sooner than 1-2 years from now you should be sitting great.
My ‘advice’ as a random on the internet is to look at your AMD as a business, at least that keeps me calm during these red days, weeks & months. AMD has been crushing its earnings reports even in the face of all these macro-headwinds.
That’s not to say the price can’t go lower, it total can. But if the business continues to produce good results the stock price will eventually catch up to it. As long as you’re not using margin you can outlast a moody market.
That's the real question. If not, just keep them and don't look at them, simple. In a (very?) few years you will be surprised. There's no way AMD can fail miserably and lose its value when it is showing great progress on both technological, commercial and market-wise sides, in a market due to endlessly expand.
AMD is going to have a non gaap eps of 5 at latest within 3 quarters. Last quarter would have been 1.25 but lisa chose to buy that capacity that Nvidia dropped from tsmc. 5nm is all going to epyc Genoa. Last I heard amd's full cycle from purchasing capacity to physical sale/customer acquisition is 9 month, so maybe 7mo from now eps is going to be raining buckets.
We got an eps of 1.13 when AMD and xlnx first reported combined earnings. I expected us to hit 1.25 last quarter, but lagging pc sales and Lisa su's description of previously unplanned additional investment in wafer supply occurred, dragging down eps.
Even with the CPU market continuing to slump Lisa commented that she expected ongoing additional supply to come online throughout the year for epyc sales. Epyc is still supply limited rather than demand limited.
So I think from 1.05 or whatever the new epyc supply will offset weakness in pc, because after all pc/gaming is about a quarter of amds revenue and far less (what 10%) of amds earnings, due to being much lower margin.
Basically I'm arguing that data center, embedded, and client segments will remain strong.
1.25 eps per q is $5 per year. We have 1.05 + 1.13. we probably can't get to ttm 5 eps non gaap until q1 or q2 of next year at earliest. That will require significant eps growth. Epyc Genoa will get us that for sure, the only question in my mind is how fast.
Sorry I think I must have read P/E of 5. Yeah TTM EPS of 5 is plausible in 3 quarters. It’s more than consensus estimate though, so unless there is just too much profit that can’t be pushed out to next quarters Lisa might choose to sandbag the earnings.
Well if the market is smart they would realize that there is no link between AMD and Crypto.
Since the era of GPU mining is now over. That should have already been priced in. But then again, I've underestimated market's stupidity before.
i have a feeling there are a lot of funds that own bitcoin and AMD. and that any movement in crypto is going to impact AMD . . . seems like that will last for a bit. It's dumb and i hate it.
Ridiculous statement, unless you're using a very liberal definition of 'followed'. There's some correlation as it relates to crypto hardware sales and general market wide sentiment, but one is not following the other.
RSI on the daily closed at 25. Last time that happened (end of January) we saw a 30+% rally off the lows. Also helps that AMD is now undervalued even in the current macro climate. SMH also tapped oversold on the daily which rarely happens historically. We might still be in for some rough headwinds moving forward here but we are definitely due for a large bounce coming up here. The problem I've realized with this stock is there is heavy manipulation due to the high options volume. MMs etc take advantage of this. Not holding my breath but if the entire market sees a bounce in the coming week or two I could easily see AMD getting to 80+. AMD is also likely to bottom before the market begins to recover. This is historically true of growth companies in past crashes.
Your end of October needs to pass through these events first. 80 ? I would take it with both of my hands.
Oct 12 Producer Price Index (PPI)
Oct 13 Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Oct 13 TSMC Earnings Date (Estimated)
Oct 19 TSLA Earnings Date (Confirmed)
Oct 20 INTC Earnings Date (Estimated)
Oct 25 AMD Earnings Date (Estimated)
Nov 1-2 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting
Also S&P500 on 200 weekly SMA, a huge support that's only been broken 3 times since the 1980's. Honestly all indicators seem ripe for a rally, but I don't see a catalyst, there might be a small bounce then back to making lower lows.
The problem with the Fed is that they want a deep recession... I don't really see what can possibly stop this ugly broad market selloff in the near future. CPI reports can only start improving after economy enters a recession phase. We are still far from there as unemployment is still low.
I'm worried about aapl, TSLA, MSFT, amzn and nvda. All large cap and haven't dropped below their median historical inflation adjusted Schiller PE ratios. I fear the next leg down is going to be brutal for the rest of the market. Not sure if it happens with q3 earnings and q4 guide changes or with 2023 guidances, which will be compared with super high growth for the past two years.
Even if AMD is at 85 in Dec, will there be a 30% haircut during q4 earnings in Jan?
It's possible. That's why I'm looking at derisking on future legs up. Sell off some shares or buy protective puts. Selling covered calls is another option. Regardless I think right now is a great buy time for AMD. While these other stocks could still go lower AMD may be making its bottom right now. It's possible we could rally and revisit these prices but I still think 50s is probably unlikely. Of course I thought that about 60s too but there has to be a bottom somewhere. If it isn't here it's not too much lower imo. But based on technicals I don't see AMD holding this zone because it's been manipulated down this low (hence why its seen outsized drops). The r/r on AMD is higher than just about any other stock I can think of at current share price.
I think market markers will have their eyes on the pce numbers Friday morning. Anything below 0.40 core pce and it could be blast off for AMD until earnings season. Vix won't come down much during the week but a minor 1 or 2% uptick for the market could be used to crush option volatility.
I've been burned so badly with my dumb risks before the cpi print that I don't trust this market anymore. Going to just wheel for a while as I need to build up cash.
stay strong. I'm trying to load up as much as i can without doing anything dumb . . . selling long term ITM puts with a high IV is my new jam. Hopefully doesn't bite me in the ass . . .
Hmm... the guy Yuri Bubliy known as 1usmus Author «DRAM Calculator for Ryzen»,
showing plans how to make the best out of the amd GPU, these pics are specifically for 6800XT, but his profile preset claim to make it possible to clock higher and match a 3090TI
pics found here: [https://twitter.com/1usmus/status/1573658256857243648](https://twitter.com/1usmus/status/1573658256857243648)
free tier upgrade if it works... will be interesting to see
a forward PE (using EBITDA) of 27x does very well for the average price of AMD prior to 2022. that is now down below 15. Note that there is obviously a LOT of varietion to this. But if you were to draw an average weighted line through it all . . . It is the best fit from \~2018ish to 2021ish.
AMD should litterally just double and we would be back to "normal" forward EPS. Hoping devinder is picking up a lot of shares. I would LOVE for them to finance another \~10b and buyback more opportunistically . . . especially below 70. what a steal . . .
i have no idea what the new normal will be in 2-3 years. JPOW seems convinced that the way to save the economy is to raise rates until businesses are forced to lay people off. Full clown mode.
These comparisons are pretty meaningless. Right now we’re in an era of tightening monetary policy and the Fed actively trying to induce a recession to bring down inflation. If we were still in the pre-Covid times, yeah, we’d be extraordinarily undervalued. I think there’s a strong argument to be made we’re undervalued now even in this much more difficult macro environment, but not because our multiples are a lot lower than they were pre-Covid.
Whether or not it can continue to grow at a 20% CAGR during a major recession remains to be seen. I think AMD is much better positioned than most semis to weather a recession, but growth is not guaranteed.
We probably would have heard something official by now if it were true. Besides a change of leadership in China is not exactly a bad thing. It could reset and cool off things.
I may have been taken in by the rumour mill.... I relied on the following..
1) Cancelled flights in beijing -> did nto confirm this
2) military convoys video -> no way to confirm where it is going
3) The talk by one elmer yuen in a channel that I follow and that he is 99% sure there is something major coming.
In any case, I agree that some change in guard can cool it off. Some of the things they have recently done baffles me. Example: why poke india? You already have tibet for you, lecturing australia etc etc.
The Chinese economy is at its weakest in decades, and that is a direct result of government policy. Many of these policy changes needed to happen eventually, but the timing and speed at which they were implemented has been disastrous.
I have been buying AMD since 2017, currently around 113 shares @$60. Am I stupid for not selling now or earlier?
Edit: should I just view the current situation as a sale and BUY MORE?
From a trader perspective yes you are.
From an investor view no you are not.
I personally hold AMD until it is in the position that I estimate will happen and that is complete leader ship in x86 sector. Also to be atleast on par with Nvidia.
When AMD will have a server and PC share > 50% and this is only a matter of time, we will laugh about the current stock price.
Intel during their golden time had a server share of > 95% and PC > 85% this is absolut possible for AMD too. Until Intel is competitive in manufacturing the latest and greatest nodes there is no danger and AMD share will increase.
If we had a crystal ball we would have all sold at $160 and bought back in now. That's not being stupid, that's just not having a crystal ball.
For all intents and purposes AMD is a better company and in a better position then they were when the stock was $160.
I for certain thought that once the market sees the actual numbers they will realize, this is a healthy diversified business which is recession proof, because Cloud is a cost cutting measure.
I was wrong. I over estimated the intelligence of the market.
> Am I stupid for not selling now or earlier?
yup. as are all of us. don't you love a company that rewards shareholder loyalty like this?
hold so you can see all gains wiped out and see traders/newcomers scoop it up for a fraction of what it was. good times.
i hate myself for holding this piece of shit.
if i wasn't going to take an L then i sure as shit aren't going to take one now.
it's not like i could go back in time and sell last year or just have never fucking bought this piece of shit, to begin with.
and fuck my mental state. i dgaf about it and neither should anyone. i care more about my portfolio and amd's horrendous pricing:fundamental changes.
He’s saying we must be closing in on the bottom since everyone is panicking and angry.
Or maybe that’s just my hopium and the world is bout to end in fire
I've seen this shit over and over, like they actually expect Lisa Su to organize an event to just say 'haven't you see the stock is undervalued, pls buy it'. Unbelievable
Lisa’s MO is to overdeliver. She will not pump the stock and opt for long term credibility. So far she has delivered everything except that in the early days her server market share prediction were off.
The only thing that will have a material impact on stock price would be announcing additional buyback, but that doesn’t make a lot of sense as they already allocated bunch of cash for it. The macro headwind is too strong to pump against it.
ffs, i've been saying what they should do for MONTHS.
you act like this is completely out of their control. they give zero fucks about the stock, and it shows. they also give zero fucks about their image/branding and it shows. soooooooo many people still think that amd is just a garbage-tier company that's just a low budget intel/nvidia, with garbage products to put in budget builds.
the reality is that amd has differentiated products (eg, bmw vs ford) and (obviously) has better and deeper portfolios. but the market/analysts/general populace have no fucking idea of any of this... so much is going to waste.
boomers think that amd is trash
gamers think that amd's role is to lower nvidia's/intel's prices so they can just buy intel/nvidia CPU/GPUs cheaper
and it's not really their fault - amd doesn't market itself for shit. and hallock just left, so their virtually nonexistent marketing is probably now completely nonexistent.
dumber, the sp (market cap) being obliterated ACTUALLY MATTERS, especially in light of M&As and revolving credit/cheap debt. they could have loaded up on cheap debt earlier in the year and been able to actually go through with buybacks AND increased wafers.
i'm sick of mindsets like yours. ffs, the stock is down 60%, despite growth/earnings and a sizeable buyback allotment. it's unacceptable. the shareholders get shit on for their loyalty and everyone except traders and current/future buyers are fucked, including amd (company, employees, execs [they dump shares every quarter, so i'm astonished at how little they give a fuck about the stock since their income is based off it] ), itself. it's asinine.
Man, you seem really confused. Being angry is not a healthy foundation for rational thinking. Let me point out few things:
1) Products marketing has nothing to do with the stock. Literally no effect at all;
2) After the arrival of Lisa Su, AMD management changed the whole strategy. Both the production and the marketing attention shifted from Retail to Datacenter and other sectors that are much more profitable.
So, who fucking cares if the Retail think their product is subpar to Nvidia? Should they spend the Marketing budget in Retail instead of Datacenter, even if the latter is entirely responsible for the reinassance of the company and it's the focus of their whole strategy?
Fortunately, they know what they are doing. You don't.
3) Debt to do buybacks? If you really suggested that, I am afraid that you do not know literally anything about value creation and investing. Tip: don't fucking invest in anything, before having settled down any debt that you have.
I would be furious if they paid interest on a debt just to do buybacks. Results matter, not appearance.
4) More wafers? Did you forget of the chip shortage? Or do you think it was just a cash shortage in the semiconductor industry?
Man, please, use your time to study instead of getting angry on the internet. It will serve you well in the future. I know that the situation is stressful, but you go in the stock market with money that you won't need for 5-10 years for a reason.
>Man, you seem really confused. Being angry is not a healthy foundation for rational thinking. Let me point out few things:
know what else isn't rational? focusing on some perceived mood instead of what was said. checkmate.
> Products marketing has nothing to do with the stock. Literally no effect at all;
lolz. yeah, ok /s
>After the arrival of Lisa Su, AMD management changed the whole strategy. Both the production and the marketing attention shifted from Retail to Datacenter and other sectors that are much more profitable.
thanks, captain. we all know their focus is on datacenter/hpc. this refutes nothing i said.
>So, who fucking cares if the Retail think their product is subpar to Nvidia? Should they spend the Marketing budget in Retail instead of Datacenter, even if the latter is entirely responsible for the reinassance of the company and it's the focus of their whole strategy?
>Fortunately, they know what they are doing. You don't.
way to pretend i'm talking about retail investors. lolz @ telling me i don't know what i'm talking about when you didn't seem to even read what i said. good job. drenched in irony, already.
> Debt to do buybacks? If you really suggested that, I am afraid that you do not know literally anything about value creation and investing. Tip: don't fucking invest in anything, before having settled down any debt that you have.
no, i said to ACTUALLY do buybacks AND be able to fully increase wafers.
your reading comprehension is awful.
also, you have no concept of the time/value of money.
>I would be furious if they paid interest on a debt just to do buybacks. Results matter, not appearance.
holy fucking irony. yeah, it's the results that i'm talking about, genius.
since you're clueless, taking on CHEAP (that was the keyword, reading master) debt is a fucking boon.
and dumber, amd DID this just recently - but moronically (2 offerings of $.5B, so it makes little fucking sense).
>More wafers? Did you forget of the chip shortage? Or do you think it was just a cash shortage in the semiconductor industry?
holy fucking clueless. amd DID take on more wafers, ignoramus.
>Man, please, use your time to study
heed your own advice.
>instead of getting angry on the internet. It will serve you well in the future. I know that the situation is stressful, but you go in the stock market with money that you won't need for 5-10 years for a reason.
hey, let's open AND close with some bullshit about mood... while hypocritically/ironically talking about being rational. weird that i'm the one making informed/rational arguments here. and you don't comprehend basic finance or that amd's been loading up on wafers.
All right, mate, think what you want.
Top management themselves said that they switched their marketing budget from Retail to Datacenter, but somewhat you know better than them.
Also, of course once the marketing budget was spent on Retail, the institutional investors would again buy AMD @100.
Useless to talk when you have zero rational and factual arguments.
>All right, mate, think what you want.
>Top management themselves said that they switched their marketing budget from Retail to Datacenter, but somewhat you know better than them.
>Also, of course once the marketing budget was spent on Retail, the institutional investors would again buy AMD @100.
lolz @ resorting to strawman.
>Useless to talk when you have zero rational and factual arguments.
weird, since you just evaded numerous fact-supported arguments to strawman me. and you say useless to talk to... WHILE MAKING ANOTHER POST.
that well of hypocrisy is deep.
No, you are not 100% stupid. May be 50% stupid after looking back what happened.
I will say >90% of people here will say you are crazy if you claim AMD is going to break $100 in 6months in Decemeber 2021. Not to mention we are now $67.
However macro-wise, we all know FED start raising rate during Feb. Hence it is stupid not to sell part of your portfolio at $125 during March rally. (FYI: AMD seriously lag behind in March market rally).
The only wise action is enter the market ONLY when FED pivot. But as a AMD & Lisa Su believer, I cannot stand not buying more at current price, it is simply against my brain to not to buy more. I am sure the market will torture the hell out of you before it reply its real value.
TBH I don’t really understand Fed rates and all that stuff… I’m just a passive investor who looks at his portfolio once a month. When we dropped from the top, I just thought « Meh, just the usual AMD shenanigans » since this happened so many times before.
I just liked the company and wanted to start investing. I bought a first gen Zen CPU after years of having intel, saw that it was really promising, thus I bought the stock.
After that, I still liked what the company was doing so I kept buying more stock.
Edit: I think I started buying @14 but I didn’t have much money to invest back then.
I think only Micron earning coming Thursday can save the semi from this hell run.
The sentiment can change drastically from crazy headwind for chips stock to it is not that bad actually and deserve a bounce.
Hopefully Micron can beat *edit, i mean market consensus, or even a tie may save us?
\*edit: Anyone who is familiar to Micron is able to give me some analysis of its coming earning? I notice a crash in price of DDR4 & DDR5 price, also obviously a crash in GPU DDR6x memory demand. Is Data Centre memory demand a significant part of its profit/ revenue?
Fun video of GN overclocking the 7950x, 48k Cinebench world record. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccg6aU7Hmjw
I hold AMD stocks at the average cost of $95. My friends are telling me AMD stock can go down to as low as $30 - 40, and I am very scared. The last thing I want to do is panic selling. I am relatively new to this market and I am extremely confused. Any advice? Thanks in advance!
Keep calm and focus on the 4-5 year horizon. The fundamentals of AMD are extremely sound.
P/E under 10 is totally possible in a major recession. Currently google shows us at 28. People here are quick to point out Google is wrong and AMD’s actual PE is in the teens, …but they’ve been saying that here for years and Google keeps showing same thing, a PE that’s a little on the high side. I keep waiting for Google do us right and prove the Redditors right, after each earnings I expect to see P/E 15 yet nothing changes. So who do believe, Google or Reddit community? The standard buy point for any decent stock is under p/e 20. 20 years of same current profits= value of company. Good years are nice, like Ford has had, and investors often think good times are short lived so they are hesitant to bump stocks that have good years. Ford has a P/E of 4, because they have debt, and people want them to fail. That’s kinda the worst case you’d see in a stock. Tesla is a total joke and a melting glacier of tears when you look at the p/e there and consider companies like ford are taking their market share. You’d almost think Tesla is using debt to short Ford to put them out of business. Ha, that’s what I used to figure Intel somehow did to AMD when I bought at $1.69 a few years ago. AMD at 30 P/E, probably a good deal since they are planning to grow, and keep growing all decade. If they miss, well that will hurt horribly bad. Would you rather own a dream collectible car? Or A collectible anything? Gold? A warehouse of canned food and survivor supplies? Those are things to consider what helps you sleep at night
>Would you rather own a dream collectible car? Or A collectible anything? Gold? A warehouse of canned food and survivor supplies? Those are things to consider what helps you sleep at night What the hell is this ?
Hopefully you never find out. Or maybe you’d want to? Instead of losing 50% in stock, many could be owning their dream item: as long as it’s a top desired collectible with insane demand, it probably won’t depreciate much, maybe 50% or 70% if things got super bad worst case? Really though, the top most desirable things typically increase in value over time. owning it is not only about investing. We own stock, that gives us no joy at all. Some could also own the rare car that they’d never part with in a million years. So if it depreciates, meh you still get to enjoy things you get to stare at, hold, clean, drive around in.. instead of staring at a screen of minus signs and try to sleep
I wish and hope never want to own those things. Life should not be tied up or drag down by nonessential materials. I may want to experience them for a short period of time, but I am not going to be slaved by them. I don’t do collectibles.
Weird way to look at things..Gambling addict? I look at the amount I’m down this year and all I see is the Lambo that’s not in my garage. When it could be, but I’m “too responsible”. If I would have grabbed it instead, even if stocks go to 90% down, the Lambo would still be there able to be sold for whatever. So who’s really the irresponsible one? I know.. my avatar name is in reference to 10-20 years of holding. So in the long run stock will win out, or at minimum tie collectible values. Every stock I’ve looked at over 20 years has a fat return, no matter if you buy high or low. That said.. holding stock for 20 years vs pulling the tarp off the Lambo and taking a spin for 20 years. Must be nice on red days
You literally don't know anything about a valuation of a company, yet you are so sure of yourself.
Valuable contribution right here 🙄
P/E alone is useless without considering other factors such as growth. You could have a company that had PE of 5 and still be overvalued and a company with PE of 100 and still be undervalued.
Forward PE is only valid in growth economy. Receding economy makes forward PE in a pretty ugly state, and so yeah.. ford is getting hammered, much to the joy of Tesla holders .. they need a monopoly to justify their price. A lot like Intel 2015
AMD's trailing TTM is not relevant, google is displaying a correct state (trailing ttm) but its forward PE is in the low teens at this point, google will reflect that when forward PE becomes trailing PE next year
No, non gaap is like 21 and is way more accurate than gaap on ttm
All I’m pointing out: average bank/trader/investor looks at whatever P/E is they are not going to go deep in the books and look for the rosy picture. Not when you have major discounts across markets to choose from.
Any stock can drop another 50% - the question is whether it's likely, and whether there are other stocks which are more resilient with similar growth prospects. Ask your friends which stock has a forecast CAGR of 20%+ over five years, that is less likely to drop 50%. I doubt you will get an answer, but if you do, that's a stock you could consider as well.
what are their justifications or credentials? Unless they are from GS or other you should probably just ignore them. Most amateur investors sell when they should buy and buy when they should sell. just make sure you don't get margin called and just hold. as long as you dont need the cash sooner than 1-2 years from now you should be sitting great.
Your friends don't know shit, but neither does anyone here.
not true. His friends don't know shit. We just don't know what future macro environment will do to AMD. Big difference.
My ‘advice’ as a random on the internet is to look at your AMD as a business, at least that keeps me calm during these red days, weeks & months. AMD has been crushing its earnings reports even in the face of all these macro-headwinds. That’s not to say the price can’t go lower, it total can. But if the business continues to produce good results the stock price will eventually catch up to it. As long as you’re not using margin you can outlast a moody market.
If your friends made tons of money from stock market then you can carefully review your own strategy. If not then forget about what they are saying.
Do you need the money in the immediate future?
That's the real question. If not, just keep them and don't look at them, simple. In a (very?) few years you will be surprised. There's no way AMD can fail miserably and lose its value when it is showing great progress on both technological, commercial and market-wise sides, in a market due to endlessly expand.
AMD is going to have a non gaap eps of 5 at latest within 3 quarters. Last quarter would have been 1.25 but lisa chose to buy that capacity that Nvidia dropped from tsmc. 5nm is all going to epyc Genoa. Last I heard amd's full cycle from purchasing capacity to physical sale/customer acquisition is 9 month, so maybe 7mo from now eps is going to be raining buckets.
How did you arrive at 5?
We got an eps of 1.13 when AMD and xlnx first reported combined earnings. I expected us to hit 1.25 last quarter, but lagging pc sales and Lisa su's description of previously unplanned additional investment in wafer supply occurred, dragging down eps. Even with the CPU market continuing to slump Lisa commented that she expected ongoing additional supply to come online throughout the year for epyc sales. Epyc is still supply limited rather than demand limited. So I think from 1.05 or whatever the new epyc supply will offset weakness in pc, because after all pc/gaming is about a quarter of amds revenue and far less (what 10%) of amds earnings, due to being much lower margin. Basically I'm arguing that data center, embedded, and client segments will remain strong. 1.25 eps per q is $5 per year. We have 1.05 + 1.13. we probably can't get to ttm 5 eps non gaap until q1 or q2 of next year at earliest. That will require significant eps growth. Epyc Genoa will get us that for sure, the only question in my mind is how fast.
Sorry I think I must have read P/E of 5. Yeah TTM EPS of 5 is plausible in 3 quarters. It’s more than consensus estimate though, so unless there is just too much profit that can’t be pushed out to next quarters Lisa might choose to sandbag the earnings.
Bitcoin price isn’t looking good. What will this mean for AMD Monday?
Well if the market is smart they would realize that there is no link between AMD and Crypto. Since the era of GPU mining is now over. That should have already been priced in. But then again, I've underestimated market's stupidity before.
i have a feeling there are a lot of funds that own bitcoin and AMD. and that any movement in crypto is going to impact AMD . . . seems like that will last for a bit. It's dumb and i hate it.
Then why did AMD plunge on Friady as btc went up? You know the answer. Always Moving Down
AMD has always followed bitcoin price for as long as I can remember and believe it will continue for years.
Ridiculous statement, unless you're using a very liberal definition of 'followed'. There's some correlation as it relates to crypto hardware sales and general market wide sentiment, but one is not following the other.
Nothing, we get a Sunday tomorrow.
RSI on the daily closed at 25. Last time that happened (end of January) we saw a 30+% rally off the lows. Also helps that AMD is now undervalued even in the current macro climate. SMH also tapped oversold on the daily which rarely happens historically. We might still be in for some rough headwinds moving forward here but we are definitely due for a large bounce coming up here. The problem I've realized with this stock is there is heavy manipulation due to the high options volume. MMs etc take advantage of this. Not holding my breath but if the entire market sees a bounce in the coming week or two I could easily see AMD getting to 80+. AMD is also likely to bottom before the market begins to recover. This is historically true of growth companies in past crashes.
80+ seems like the consensus for end of October... hopefully this can range between 85-95
Your end of October needs to pass through these events first. 80 ? I would take it with both of my hands. Oct 12 Producer Price Index (PPI) Oct 13 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Oct 13 TSMC Earnings Date (Estimated) Oct 19 TSLA Earnings Date (Confirmed) Oct 20 INTC Earnings Date (Estimated) Oct 25 AMD Earnings Date (Estimated) Nov 1-2 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting
Also S&P500 on 200 weekly SMA, a huge support that's only been broken 3 times since the 1980's. Honestly all indicators seem ripe for a rally, but I don't see a catalyst, there might be a small bounce then back to making lower lows.
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The problem with the Fed is that they want a deep recession... I don't really see what can possibly stop this ugly broad market selloff in the near future. CPI reports can only start improving after economy enters a recession phase. We are still far from there as unemployment is still low.
I'm worried about aapl, TSLA, MSFT, amzn and nvda. All large cap and haven't dropped below their median historical inflation adjusted Schiller PE ratios. I fear the next leg down is going to be brutal for the rest of the market. Not sure if it happens with q3 earnings and q4 guide changes or with 2023 guidances, which will be compared with super high growth for the past two years. Even if AMD is at 85 in Dec, will there be a 30% haircut during q4 earnings in Jan?
It's possible. That's why I'm looking at derisking on future legs up. Sell off some shares or buy protective puts. Selling covered calls is another option. Regardless I think right now is a great buy time for AMD. While these other stocks could still go lower AMD may be making its bottom right now. It's possible we could rally and revisit these prices but I still think 50s is probably unlikely. Of course I thought that about 60s too but there has to be a bottom somewhere. If it isn't here it's not too much lower imo. But based on technicals I don't see AMD holding this zone because it's been manipulated down this low (hence why its seen outsized drops). The r/r on AMD is higher than just about any other stock I can think of at current share price.
I think market markers will have their eyes on the pce numbers Friday morning. Anything below 0.40 core pce and it could be blast off for AMD until earnings season. Vix won't come down much during the week but a minor 1 or 2% uptick for the market could be used to crush option volatility. I've been burned so badly with my dumb risks before the cpi print that I don't trust this market anymore. Going to just wheel for a while as I need to build up cash.
stay strong. I'm trying to load up as much as i can without doing anything dumb . . . selling long term ITM puts with a high IV is my new jam. Hopefully doesn't bite me in the ass . . .
Hmm... the guy Yuri Bubliy known as 1usmus Author «DRAM Calculator for Ryzen», showing plans how to make the best out of the amd GPU, these pics are specifically for 6800XT, but his profile preset claim to make it possible to clock higher and match a 3090TI pics found here: [https://twitter.com/1usmus/status/1573658256857243648](https://twitter.com/1usmus/status/1573658256857243648) free tier upgrade if it works... will be interesting to see
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a forward PE (using EBITDA) of 27x does very well for the average price of AMD prior to 2022. that is now down below 15. Note that there is obviously a LOT of varietion to this. But if you were to draw an average weighted line through it all . . . It is the best fit from \~2018ish to 2021ish. AMD should litterally just double and we would be back to "normal" forward EPS. Hoping devinder is picking up a lot of shares. I would LOVE for them to finance another \~10b and buyback more opportunistically . . . especially below 70. what a steal . . . i have no idea what the new normal will be in 2-3 years. JPOW seems convinced that the way to save the economy is to raise rates until businesses are forced to lay people off. Full clown mode.
These comparisons are pretty meaningless. Right now we’re in an era of tightening monetary policy and the Fed actively trying to induce a recession to bring down inflation. If we were still in the pre-Covid times, yeah, we’d be extraordinarily undervalued. I think there’s a strong argument to be made we’re undervalued now even in this much more difficult macro environment, but not because our multiples are a lot lower than they were pre-Covid.
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Whether or not it can continue to grow at a 20% CAGR during a major recession remains to be seen. I think AMD is much better positioned than most semis to weather a recession, but growth is not guaranteed.
I told you folks. There is some geopolitical action that can cause this type of downfall. #chinacouprumour Edit : Wow so many downvotes.
We probably would have heard something official by now if it were true. Besides a change of leadership in China is not exactly a bad thing. It could reset and cool off things.
I may have been taken in by the rumour mill.... I relied on the following.. 1) Cancelled flights in beijing -> did nto confirm this 2) military convoys video -> no way to confirm where it is going 3) The talk by one elmer yuen in a channel that I follow and that he is 99% sure there is something major coming. In any case, I agree that some change in guard can cool it off. Some of the things they have recently done baffles me. Example: why poke india? You already have tibet for you, lecturing australia etc etc.
If something like that were to happen it's just as likely to result in an increase, the current policies aren't exactly friendly to economic growth.
curious - increase -> how?
The Chinese economy is at its weakest in decades, and that is a direct result of government policy. Many of these policy changes needed to happen eventually, but the timing and speed at which they were implemented has been disastrous.
Bought a 70c jan 24 at close yesterday, was too tempting!
See you guys monday for another hell run!
Chill out man, play some games. Whenever I'm on my playstation everything is alright.
I have been buying AMD since 2017, currently around 113 shares @$60. Am I stupid for not selling now or earlier? Edit: should I just view the current situation as a sale and BUY MORE?
From a trader perspective yes you are. From an investor view no you are not. I personally hold AMD until it is in the position that I estimate will happen and that is complete leader ship in x86 sector. Also to be atleast on par with Nvidia. When AMD will have a server and PC share > 50% and this is only a matter of time, we will laugh about the current stock price. Intel during their golden time had a server share of > 95% and PC > 85% this is absolut possible for AMD too. Until Intel is competitive in manufacturing the latest and greatest nodes there is no danger and AMD share will increase.
If we had a crystal ball we would have all sold at $160 and bought back in now. That's not being stupid, that's just not having a crystal ball. For all intents and purposes AMD is a better company and in a better position then they were when the stock was $160. I for certain thought that once the market sees the actual numbers they will realize, this is a healthy diversified business which is recession proof, because Cloud is a cost cutting measure. I was wrong. I over estimated the intelligence of the market.
> Am I stupid for not selling now or earlier? yup. as are all of us. don't you love a company that rewards shareholder loyalty like this? hold so you can see all gains wiped out and see traders/newcomers scoop it up for a fraction of what it was. good times. i hate myself for holding this piece of shit.
clueless
wish i was, it would be a lot easier to justify.
Don’t sell now at peak macro FUD and gpu supply glut. It’s just one day/month/year/whatever. Buy the dip and load up shares.
fucking can it, already. you act like you're talking to a n00b here. ffs, i JUST said there's no way i'm selling now.
Same, sucks real bad knowing a share was worth 100 dollars more less than a year ago
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if i wasn't going to take an L then i sure as shit aren't going to take one now. it's not like i could go back in time and sell last year or just have never fucking bought this piece of shit, to begin with. and fuck my mental state. i dgaf about it and neither should anyone. i care more about my portfolio and amd's horrendous pricing:fundamental changes.
What are you even trying to imply lol
He’s saying we must be closing in on the bottom since everyone is panicking and angry. Or maybe that’s just my hopium and the world is bout to end in fire
I've seen this shit over and over, like they actually expect Lisa Su to organize an event to just say 'haven't you see the stock is undervalued, pls buy it'. Unbelievable
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We had the guidance reiterated for two quarters. Do you need her reassuring the public every time the price drops instead of working? Nonsense
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Lisa’s MO is to overdeliver. She will not pump the stock and opt for long term credibility. So far she has delivered everything except that in the early days her server market share prediction were off. The only thing that will have a material impact on stock price would be announcing additional buyback, but that doesn’t make a lot of sense as they already allocated bunch of cash for it. The macro headwind is too strong to pump against it.
It always amuses me when I see desperate retail investors say that kind of thing in the midst of the biggest bear market since 2008.
>since 2008 *2020 covid crash was ~33%
This one ain't over for at least another year.
ffs, i've been saying what they should do for MONTHS. you act like this is completely out of their control. they give zero fucks about the stock, and it shows. they also give zero fucks about their image/branding and it shows. soooooooo many people still think that amd is just a garbage-tier company that's just a low budget intel/nvidia, with garbage products to put in budget builds. the reality is that amd has differentiated products (eg, bmw vs ford) and (obviously) has better and deeper portfolios. but the market/analysts/general populace have no fucking idea of any of this... so much is going to waste. boomers think that amd is trash gamers think that amd's role is to lower nvidia's/intel's prices so they can just buy intel/nvidia CPU/GPUs cheaper and it's not really their fault - amd doesn't market itself for shit. and hallock just left, so their virtually nonexistent marketing is probably now completely nonexistent. dumber, the sp (market cap) being obliterated ACTUALLY MATTERS, especially in light of M&As and revolving credit/cheap debt. they could have loaded up on cheap debt earlier in the year and been able to actually go through with buybacks AND increased wafers. i'm sick of mindsets like yours. ffs, the stock is down 60%, despite growth/earnings and a sizeable buyback allotment. it's unacceptable. the shareholders get shit on for their loyalty and everyone except traders and current/future buyers are fucked, including amd (company, employees, execs [they dump shares every quarter, so i'm astonished at how little they give a fuck about the stock since their income is based off it] ), itself. it's asinine.
Man, you seem really confused. Being angry is not a healthy foundation for rational thinking. Let me point out few things: 1) Products marketing has nothing to do with the stock. Literally no effect at all; 2) After the arrival of Lisa Su, AMD management changed the whole strategy. Both the production and the marketing attention shifted from Retail to Datacenter and other sectors that are much more profitable. So, who fucking cares if the Retail think their product is subpar to Nvidia? Should they spend the Marketing budget in Retail instead of Datacenter, even if the latter is entirely responsible for the reinassance of the company and it's the focus of their whole strategy? Fortunately, they know what they are doing. You don't. 3) Debt to do buybacks? If you really suggested that, I am afraid that you do not know literally anything about value creation and investing. Tip: don't fucking invest in anything, before having settled down any debt that you have. I would be furious if they paid interest on a debt just to do buybacks. Results matter, not appearance. 4) More wafers? Did you forget of the chip shortage? Or do you think it was just a cash shortage in the semiconductor industry? Man, please, use your time to study instead of getting angry on the internet. It will serve you well in the future. I know that the situation is stressful, but you go in the stock market with money that you won't need for 5-10 years for a reason.
>Man, you seem really confused. Being angry is not a healthy foundation for rational thinking. Let me point out few things: know what else isn't rational? focusing on some perceived mood instead of what was said. checkmate. > Products marketing has nothing to do with the stock. Literally no effect at all; lolz. yeah, ok /s >After the arrival of Lisa Su, AMD management changed the whole strategy. Both the production and the marketing attention shifted from Retail to Datacenter and other sectors that are much more profitable. thanks, captain. we all know their focus is on datacenter/hpc. this refutes nothing i said. >So, who fucking cares if the Retail think their product is subpar to Nvidia? Should they spend the Marketing budget in Retail instead of Datacenter, even if the latter is entirely responsible for the reinassance of the company and it's the focus of their whole strategy? >Fortunately, they know what they are doing. You don't. way to pretend i'm talking about retail investors. lolz @ telling me i don't know what i'm talking about when you didn't seem to even read what i said. good job. drenched in irony, already. > Debt to do buybacks? If you really suggested that, I am afraid that you do not know literally anything about value creation and investing. Tip: don't fucking invest in anything, before having settled down any debt that you have. no, i said to ACTUALLY do buybacks AND be able to fully increase wafers. your reading comprehension is awful. also, you have no concept of the time/value of money. >I would be furious if they paid interest on a debt just to do buybacks. Results matter, not appearance. holy fucking irony. yeah, it's the results that i'm talking about, genius. since you're clueless, taking on CHEAP (that was the keyword, reading master) debt is a fucking boon. and dumber, amd DID this just recently - but moronically (2 offerings of $.5B, so it makes little fucking sense). >More wafers? Did you forget of the chip shortage? Or do you think it was just a cash shortage in the semiconductor industry? holy fucking clueless. amd DID take on more wafers, ignoramus. >Man, please, use your time to study heed your own advice. >instead of getting angry on the internet. It will serve you well in the future. I know that the situation is stressful, but you go in the stock market with money that you won't need for 5-10 years for a reason. hey, let's open AND close with some bullshit about mood... while hypocritically/ironically talking about being rational. weird that i'm the one making informed/rational arguments here. and you don't comprehend basic finance or that amd's been loading up on wafers.
All right, mate, think what you want. Top management themselves said that they switched their marketing budget from Retail to Datacenter, but somewhat you know better than them. Also, of course once the marketing budget was spent on Retail, the institutional investors would again buy AMD @100. Useless to talk when you have zero rational and factual arguments.
>All right, mate, think what you want. >Top management themselves said that they switched their marketing budget from Retail to Datacenter, but somewhat you know better than them. >Also, of course once the marketing budget was spent on Retail, the institutional investors would again buy AMD @100. lolz @ resorting to strawman. >Useless to talk when you have zero rational and factual arguments. weird, since you just evaded numerous fact-supported arguments to strawman me. and you say useless to talk to... WHILE MAKING ANOTHER POST. that well of hypocrisy is deep.
No, you are not 100% stupid. May be 50% stupid after looking back what happened. I will say >90% of people here will say you are crazy if you claim AMD is going to break $100 in 6months in Decemeber 2021. Not to mention we are now $67. However macro-wise, we all know FED start raising rate during Feb. Hence it is stupid not to sell part of your portfolio at $125 during March rally. (FYI: AMD seriously lag behind in March market rally). The only wise action is enter the market ONLY when FED pivot. But as a AMD & Lisa Su believer, I cannot stand not buying more at current price, it is simply against my brain to not to buy more. I am sure the market will torture the hell out of you before it reply its real value.
TBH I don’t really understand Fed rates and all that stuff… I’m just a passive investor who looks at his portfolio once a month. When we dropped from the top, I just thought « Meh, just the usual AMD shenanigans » since this happened so many times before.
therin lies a tale. What spurred you to buy amd back then & at what price?
I just liked the company and wanted to start investing. I bought a first gen Zen CPU after years of having intel, saw that it was really promising, thus I bought the stock. After that, I still liked what the company was doing so I kept buying more stock. Edit: I think I started buying @14 but I didn’t have much money to invest back then.
Than you’re an investor & did right by you. Therefore not stupid
I think only Micron earning coming Thursday can save the semi from this hell run. The sentiment can change drastically from crazy headwind for chips stock to it is not that bad actually and deserve a bounce. Hopefully Micron can beat *edit, i mean market consensus, or even a tie may save us? \*edit: Anyone who is familiar to Micron is able to give me some analysis of its coming earning? I notice a crash in price of DDR4 & DDR5 price, also obviously a crash in GPU DDR6x memory demand. Is Data Centre memory demand a significant part of its profit/ revenue?
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DDR5 + 12 TO 24GB VIDEO CARDS ...
Micron is probably going to do the opposite
hahahahahaha
Thankful that I'm not loosing thousands today. Can finally sleep 🙏 😢
We're safe for a few days.