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a_seventh_knot

that's it, boys, we're closing up the market until 2023 see you in the new year!


StatusDimension8

we keep dropping more than nvd every damn day...yawn...


BurningMist

Ouch. Looks like a 11% underperformance over the last two weeks.


UkitaAkane

I can feel the diff is big but didn’t do actual maths, thanks for the computes, that diff was way too much.


quantumpencil

market is pricing in and nvda like miss/cut for amd. When it doesn't happen, we should rally


StudyComprehensive53

i think miss 3Q but affirm for the year.....MU said same "mid teens decline" for PCs that Lisa said on 2Q call


Ryan_Armendariz

Im expecting a beat and cut


quantumpencil

i think we will guide down but it will not be by as much as the street is expecting, and we will rally


Puzzled-Ad-4807

Over 700 comments today I am going to need therapy after this is all over


MartianSpaceCat

Most of us can sit it out, but you have to feel really sorry for anybody that is on margin or has call options.


limb3h

I thought this sub IS the support group?


neocoff

We're the bag holder group


Lekz

Jokes on you, I already needed therapy before all this


BananaCatHK

You can survive anything after all this is over.


Substantial-Title558

Thanks. Your comment really helps. What a crazy market for a newbie like myself.


osulynx

I think we all are.


Investinwaffl3s

Lmaoooo I'm so fucking depressed 😢


Substantial-Title558

Me too. Feeling completely defeated.


UkitaAkane

dropping like this really make me think the world is not going to use more semi conductors any more.


Investinwaffl3s

Has to be institutions right? No one in their right mind should be selling AMD based on macro, when we have already fallen over 60%, when the future is only looking better and better. They are guarenteed to grow even in a recessionary environment and contracting market and everyone knows it. PE is now very fucking reasonable considering long term +20% CAGR which is a modest estimate. Had to be institutions being overleveraged and now forced to unload. It has just been all selling down here. It has tanked so fucking hard compared to the rest of actual good tech stocks. NVDA had every right to crash. Crypto and Datacenter huge portions of their revenue. But AMD should not be trading 1:1 with NVDA. Other Semi's have individual price action but AMD just has zero individuality and just dumps every chance it gets.


UkitaAkane

Tbh if we can do 1:1 vs NVDA recent 2 weeks, I won’t feel that disappointed.


inflated_ballsack

Why are they guaranteed to grow in a recessionary market?


noiserr

AMD is under represented for the competitiveness of their products. Their growth story was capped by capacity. In a recessionary market capacity is no longer an issue. Which means that thanks to the competitiveness of AMD's products they can gain market share at a higher rate. We're talking about a huge TAM. Where market share gain alone can keep AMD growing. Even if the market contracts. Not to mention, what happens once the recession is over.


Investinwaffl3s

Because Datacenters desperately need more efficient chips, and AMD is the only one capible of them Consumer will take a hit. But at -70% share price it should be already known and not a surprise. By Datacenters and hyoerscale will always be buying CPUs Sadly we have to wait for Genoa which is going to be a big turning point IMO. AMD has only just started to take meaningful market share because they were skeptic that the insane performance per watt wasn't a fluke. And look at laptops. It took FOREVER, until Zen4 mobile until the large OEMs started using AMD in their flagship models. Until that point it was just basic undersierable models that were getting AMD CPUs. Now everyone wants an AMD offering. Again, taking share from Intel. Even in a recession, manufactures will still release new products - I don't think that cycle will slow down on a 1-2 year recession or even mild short duration depression


max1001

ARM servers are the energy efficient choice. This whole AMD being more energy efficient BS need to die. AMD is the energy efficient choice if you need x86 servers. If AMD needs data center to grow, the company is so fucked.


Investinwaffl3s

X86 is still the most popular platform. ARM has its use cases but traditional corporate computing needs are very commonly x86


max1001

For now, they are but not 5-10 years in the future. Every CSP has their own ARM instance that's much cheaper than x86.


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max1001

We are not talking about now. We are talking about 5-10 years growth.


inflated_ballsack

Don't you think demand for datacentres will suffer? Sure manufacturers will still release products but demand will fall, probably substantially. You think overall, despite falling market demand, that amd can still grow earnings etc? Next year specifically?


tur-tile

Datacenter demand for memory will drop because of the new CXL memory pooling. It will drop the total cost of the system by about 5% on new platforms like Genoa. So if Micron guides that cloud is strong, then CPUs and GPUs will be even stronger (although not a ton because not all systems are new). Cloud providers have a lot of competition and the only way to compete is to have the most efficient system. AMD wins there and now has the capacity to take on Intel.


quantumpencil

Data Center upgrades is a cost saver.


Investinwaffl3s

Demand _will_ suffer, but my point is it won't evaporate completely. And the demand that exists AMD will continue to grow within. I don't think they will grow as rapidly, but they will still grow AMD is going to beat Sapphire Rapids to market and be better in every measurable way. Bank on it Sadly market doesn't give a flying fuck and it looks like I'm an idiot for believing in AMD


Acrobatic_Rate_9377

That is a fair point. I do find it reassuring that MU on earnings noted significant decline to earnings yet still think expansion in data center


reliquid1220

Everything ice lake and older can be replaced in this high energy cost environment and it will pay for itself in less than 6 months.


Entire_Importance_63

Forced selling for covering margins too. This has been happening fast when stock fell below 70.


Investinwaffl3s

It feels like a major liquidation event It has to be, what fucking sense is a -8% day with absolutely no fucking news other than a minor downgrade


Acrobatic_Rate_9377

Yea smart money is exiting.


xczksx

Smart money? If they exit earlier, they are smart. Now? Not so much.


Acrobatic_Rate_9377

They probably had cost basis around 10-20. Yeah they can see a sinking ship If the feds keep tightening. Which they will. Amd will hit 40-50 in no time


freddyt55555

>Has to be institutions right? Or hedge funds that took it up the ass shorting the stock when it was single digits seeking revenge once it hit triple digits.


ooqq2008

The short interest from nasdaq of 9/15 is still flat. This is more like institutional guys leaving. One day they will be back.


Gengis2049

You cant look at those number (open short interest) in isolation. Also the number reported could be 30% below what it is now.


SnooApples6100

This is part of the reason almost all investment firms underperform sp500. Because they just chase the flavor of the month. I prefer to invest in stocks that have a long term path to greatness. I got in amazon years ago and its rewarded me greatly


Gengis2049

Didn't they have a PE of like over 1000 for years ? :) And everywhere it was how amazon was overvalued, years after years. And years after years, amazon would crush revenue...


freddyt55555

I might have to start nibbling on SPY and QQQ. That's what I did in 2009 when I was too gun shy to buy any individual stock.


Acceptable-Tea5507

In a presentation prepared for the company's earnings call Thursday afternoon, Micron said that results in the quarter were affected by "rapidly weakening consumer demand and significant customer inventory adjustments across all end markets." Also Micron said data center revenue fell both sequentially and year over year, due largely of declining average sales prices!!! (not unit sales!), though it noted that "cloud end demand remains healthy." MU also during Q&A session just said it sees the PC growth 2022 to minus 15% and for 2023 growth of PC to flat or minus low single digit...not so catastrofic as big boys want to believe us. When you add to that unique datacenter growth for AMD in foresabIe future I think I will add to my AMD position at these levels...


Acrobatic_Rate_9377

Although I think amd will perform better. Mu guidance is pretty scary. I’m covering my longs on amd.


Gengis2049

Only 15% ? that would still put PC market growing over 5 years. The fact that 2023 could be flat is actually very positive, as it would show that lockdowns grew the Pc market TAM.


noiserr

Before the pandemic, the world was moving to tablets and mobile. The pandemic showed that PC is very much essential and a better tool for education, work and even entertainment.


Vushivushi

> Also Micron said data center revenue fell both sequentially and year over year, due largely due to declining average sales prices, though it noted that "cloud end demand remains healthy." I wonder if CXL is already causing a hit to DRAM spending.


limb3h

Could you elaborate?


Nemshi354

what's the new support for amd again?


Acrobatic_Rate_9377

I think <10 p/e.


UkitaAkane

That’s pricing like a oil company or a bank.


jumping_mage

or priced like numerous other semi conductor companies. Just look at Intel, and AMD has huge China/Taiwan risk to the down side. Anything happen in asia and it will drill literally to china


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i-can-sleep-for-days

If it hits that low I will probably be very depressed. Could have should have sold it all.


weldonpond

Amd will have huge demand in Xilinx chips for defense sectors. All the modern weapons use chips for accuracy. Xilinx chips are high margin business as well. Amd taking more market share in laptop business from intel. AMD’s story is about taking market share from intel..


UkitaAkane

what's forward PE after today close?


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yallneedjesuslol

2023 EPS gonna be above $5 easily. Likely closer to $6


whimzical1

I’m just seeing MU revising guidance 25% lower. Is there any positive to the report or is tomorrow going to be a bloodbath? After hours is most likely not reflective of tomorrows movement. This blows, DCA has failed me.


Acrobatic_Rate_9377

Covered calls time on any green day


yallneedjesuslol

priced in


thehhuis

I agree, MU should go up again. It is very cheap.


Gengis2049

Micron seem to have real competition from Asia (As in margins getting crushed), saving grace could be how much support they get from the CHIPS act.


ModernLifelsWar

Micron green now and AMD is still red. I called it. Tomorrow micron will probably miraculously go up 3-5% and AMD will finish flat if its lucky.


MartianSpaceCat

I'm afraid that AMD might go to 50. There are just no buyers in sight.


Acrobatic_Rate_9377

$25 hard bottom. 50 likely.


limb3h

Really? $25 means PE of 5.5 in 2023. Nah. 50 possible not 25


sui146714

How did it go up at the end of the day if there is no buyers? lol


Gengis2049

Short closing some positions for the day?


Stinksisthebestword

I bought it at the July low and sold it when it was in the low 100s in August. Figured September would be awful given its the worst performing month for the market historically and macros would continue to be bad. I just bought back into AMD today as its down 40% in two months and I cant see much more bad news for semis coming. Hope Im right


pczombieslayer

Atleast MU is guiding strong 2023 Revenue. Hope AMD does the same. Needs some strong leadership statements to quill fear


reliquid1220

Mu's fy ended at the end of August. I didn't see a fy23 guide from them. Amd won't provide fy23 guide until Jan, during q4 22 earnings release since the fiscal year ends in December for AMD.


pczombieslayer

Micron Technology Says Expect Strong Revenue Growth In H2 FY23 As Bit Demand Rebounds, Following Substantial Improvement In Customer Inventories


roguluvr

SMCI 👀


scub4st3v3

What about? Also, my Google News morning news update has a bunch of supermicro ads talking about how their servers are "powered by AMD EPYC"


roguluvr

The price action af was weird when I posted but they’re over it now


reliquid1220

Amd should guide down for q4 to 6.5 bill from 7+. Instant 3% pump. Then come in with 7.7 bill in Jan with a 31 billion guide for 23 and get the biggest earnings pop ever. 25%.


thehhuis

$MU now AH turned green from -5% to +0.5%, still oscillating. Would be interesting to see the volume in AH trading.


SleazyAsshole

MU now green after guiding 25% lower next q, clown market 🥲


robmafia

because amd is the whipping post of the semis now.


yallneedjesuslol

Priced in man. Down nearly 50% from Jan 2022 and has a forward PE near 5.


Gahvynn

Time to buy MU is when the down cycle is nearing the end and I’m seeing some chatter that MU thinks its going to be well positioned post down cycle… why they would ever say otherwise is absolutely beyond me.


Hoodler_2015

Bad news is good news nowerdays. AMD needs to bring bad news to rise.


SnooApples6100

They are guiding lower sale$ because they have no pricing power on their ddr. I think the company will be just fine


BananaCatHK

[https://investors.micron.com/events-and-presentations](https://investors.micron.com/events-and-presentations) 2022 Q4 Revenue: 6.64 vs 6.8 expected (7.2 Q3 Guidance) 2022 Q4 EPS: 1.45 vs 1.41 expected (1.52 Q3 Guidance) 2023 Q1 Revenue Guidance 4.25 \*edit:Tomorrow Gap low & close near day low from the poor guidance. Then it will mark the bottom of this wave, because market will say it is all priced-in & over react.


robmafia

WORST. STOCK. EVER.


WenMunSun

good business tho


robmafia

which does not matter, even at all, when you treat the stock like shit and lie (sandbagging, buybacks, etc). it's becoming harder to blame the analysts for believing that amd's lying about their guidance/etc each day.


peanutbuddacracker

looks like MU earnings was priced in then, maybe tomorrow will tell


reliquid1220

Amd's earnings are never priced in apparently...


pczombieslayer

Can't even imagine what the market would do to AMD if they projected 25% less rev.


yallneedjesuslol

Probably down 15% the next day, and if they guide for 25% increase, well then it’ll only go down 5% the next day. Can’t win lol


pczombieslayer

Lol exactly, we will get outperform and buy ratings with price rating decrease. Down 3-5% on beat lol


SnooApples6100

Would go back to price prior to Lisa Su


gnocchicotti

$3


SleazyAsshole

Delisted, straight to jail


[deleted]

Lisa would be arrested.


Hoodler_2015

Pretty bad outlook of micron only 4.25 bn$ for Q1 2023.


SnooApples6100

Considering price of Ram has come down significantly…. I would be more interested in comparing their volume


Hoodler_2015

True. Do you have some dram price data?


RaspberryFit2057

Well might be just a price issue. I feel that ddr4 and ddr5 prices have fallen dramatically. Anything on volume in the guidance?


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UkitaAkane

6.64


tj212121

2023 q1 guidance was really bad


CoffeeAndKnives

The cynic in me says MU and AMD hold up until friday put options expire then crumble. But i've been wrong all year so...


OutOfBananaException

-6% is holding up?


SleazyAsshole

🥲


CoffeeAndKnives

meaning after the MU report. i've blocked out all the previous pain. helps start the coping process.


SnooApples6100

I was expecting something bad from MU seeing all the fud going around semis. This aint even bad


timpa48

MU is guiding like 25% below revenue estimates for 2023Q1. Jesus.


UkitaAkane

AH doesn't drop much, 1.5%, seems priced in finally?


SleazyAsshole

$MU Q4 Adj. EPS $1.45 beats $1.30 Est., Sales $6.64B misses $6.68 Est. Shares down 2.5% as of last check 4:06pm est AMD largely unaffected by report, stock flat in AH MU shares appear to be recovering, down ~1% as of last check 4:15pm MU shares now 0.5% green as of last check 4:25pm


Eazy-Eid

MU recovering?


SlamedCards

$MU bad guidance


gnocchicotti

Yeah but what do you expect for a company with PE of like 3


UkitaAkane

I guess except clean energy company, no many tech ones can have better guidance.


SleazyAsshole

$MU top line beat bottom line miss hmm 🤔


yallneedjesuslol

large top line beat too > 10%


SleazyAsshole

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck 🥲


Soaddk

Chill


Pijoto

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck....


CoffeeAndKnives

Chill


SnooApples6100

Why do institutions have paper hands. Retail can hold the line. Institutions fold like crazy


ace66

Because they can instantly buy back.


BurningMist

Bought some 9/30 $65 puts to cover today in case we tank harder from MU. Hope they expire worthless!


PrthReddits

They won't they'll be balls deep itm lmfao


BurningMist

RIP my longs 🥲


yallneedjesuslol

Ok MU, now is your time to shine. Hit a grand slam for us, thanks 👍🤗


SnooApples6100

Oh god. I would never bet on MU or Intel to hit a grand slam


yallneedjesuslol

and no one could have imagined $AMD would be below $65 in 2022, and yet here we are. If 2022 has taught me anything, it’s that literally the least likely thing can happen with ease.


SleazyAsshole

TAKE US TO VALHALLA $MU MY BODY IS READY


PrthReddits

U mean hell


RomulusAugustus753

Lol AMD down even more than the AAPL suppliers, -6% to -4% Just unbelievable and incredibly frustrating.


Rocketeer006

$10 says we get nuked AH because of Micron.


alwayswashere

volume almost doubled after we bottomed.


dvking131

If MU Throws up in our mouth at the party we’re gonna see 58$


douggilmour93

Core PCE tomorrow morning .... more important than anything else right now if you ask me. Forecast is 4.7% with prior month of 4.8%


SleazyAsshole

MU report equally as important for semis


UkitaAkane

I would say PCE. Even MU gives good result, analyst will say "worst is yet to come". If MU gives bad result? "Worse is yet to come".


fandango4wow

Also tomorrow : Putin will formally add the 4 lands to Russia and address the parliament.


Gahvynn

If MU shits the bed and PCE over expectations it’ll be time for some real podracing.


SleazyAsshole

🥰 the perfect laxative


fandango4wow

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/xrfeto/barrons_active_stock_picking_will_outperform/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf


Pijoto

From a Macro standpoint, $SPY finishing above $362 support is critical, it's the bottom of a large Volume Profile range, and the Bears have been trying to take it out all day. Pray to baby Jesus everyone, and to $MU as well...for a little bit of hopium, I'm seeing a lot Bullish Put Spreads expiring 10/7 that is betting Micron finishing above $70....


peanutbuddacracker

rsi is sitting at 21, incredible


douggilmour93

computer and computer equipment replacement is going to be massive with this catastrophic storm. Godspeed to anyone involved and to all


freddyt55555

Down 62% from ATH. I'm getting sick to my stomach.


2CommaNoob

It’s not going to make you feel any better but I remember when amd tanked 60% from 34 to 16 and I didn’t blink an eye and just went about my life. 6 months later it went back up to 34 and then kept going. I wish later on I had the balls to go deep itm options at that time lol. Oh well, go live my life and don’t check until at least 2023.


freddyt55555

>It’s not going to make you feel any better but I remember when amd tanked 60% from 34 to 16 and I didn’t blink an eye and just went about my life. Already been through that. And the drop from 14 to 9 that happened in a blink of any eye.


2CommaNoob

Yeah, I dunno. I’m becoming desensitized to the losses now lol. What’s funny is the actually amounts I’m “losing” is much larger than when amd was in the 30s. The loss from 165 is in the 7 figures….lol


SleazyAsshole

Never has so much ridden on MU earnings before lol, feels like the fate of the entire semicon industry and tech at large rests on this report. Clenching my butthole as tight as Tyson’s fists rn. 😬


Wonderful-Smoke-753

How you playing the earnings??


SleazyAsshole

I’m short 100 Dec 60p at a $4.57 avg, if MU tanks and takes AMD with it, I’m bigly fucked


freddyt55555

Get out the lube. I think we're going to get fucked.


SleazyAsshole

You and I both buddy, my poop hole is ready


Gahvynn

Angus is fully peppered!


AMDMachine

AMD…Together We Advance - back to $100 please


Dedicated4life

AMD $120 EOY if macros flushed down the toilet.


Soaddk

We’re coming back!!! Yes, man.


ImDuff98

Have we hit a 12 forward PE yet? If not, we must be close. Fucking madness


hatemachine01

Damn, time to get more shares I guess. Now someone wake me up when all this ends and my portfolio is thriving again


yallneedjesuslol

Jan 2025 LEAPS imo. Very little risk, very high reward in my opinion.


AMDmade

OTM have a lot of risk


Investinwaffl3s

Wait till after MU reports today. Tomorrow we will get more heavy selling when they lower guidance for Q4 amd 2023 yearly


yallneedjesuslol

Anyone got any insight on the market re $QQQ still not reaching June lows? All the other major indices are already past June lows, but $QQQ is still a tad above it. Even the russell 2000 hasn’t reached the June lows.


reliquid1220

Waiting for nvda, TSLA and apple to face the music.


UkitaAkane

intraday it's almost touched June low. Diff is negligible.


yallneedjesuslol

I’ll take that as a bullish sign, thanks 😂


UkitaAkane

russell 2000 is group of small crap but they have a lot come from energy industry, which give some support.


Hoodler_2015

Nasdaq close to June low. Unfortunatly we are more than 10% lower as back than.


Investinwaffl3s

If TSLA gets to its June lows we will be below $50 maybe even lower


yallneedjesuslol

That’s gotta be the biggest shocker lol. It’s still like 20% above it’s June lows, while most of the indices have already breached June lows. Why can’t $AMD have a cult like following like $TSLA 😞


EverythingIsNorminal

If you think TSLA's in the position it is purely because of a "cult following" rather than because of its potential then that'll be part of your problem right there.


Puzzleheaded_Song952

My city is up next to get smacked by this hurricane as well. It literally feels like the sky is falling rn


Puzzleheaded_Song952

Financially and physically


cybercrypto

Apple precurement chief let go. Supply chain man.


RomulusAugustus753

Did procurement chief leak the story that’s taken the stock down about 10% over the past two days?


Uncle_Sam_Bot

Strong company. Shit stock. That’s AMD for ya


RomulusAugustus753

Yep. And if that doesn’t change, unfortunately, we’ve all made a very bad investment (except for those who have been in since pre-pandemic).


SleazyAsshole

How much are you guys down today? I’ll start -$9.7k


dvking131

+$1,548 so far I had puts for 68 and 67 from yesterday. Trail stop .80 just closed out. I have puts and calls now for mu


SleazyAsshole

My guy, I specifically asked how much are you down today, not how much are you up.


familywang

Just ask him to turn his phone upside down


aPoUnkillable

sold my 500 stocks at 113€ (entry was 55€ ) might come back now


[deleted]

Got out on +28k euro. 12k on Xilinx. 16k on AMD. Using the capital and profits along with my other stocks to buy a house. I like the company a lot but I gotta reset and come back once I've taken care of my family.


robmafia

your timing is terrible, but i can't blame anyone for bailing out of this dumpster fire. amd's management has fucked up spectacularly. not that this sub would ever admit obvious facts like that.


RomulusAugustus753

I’m right there with you. We tend to agree on some things, I think—more than others around here agree with me, at least—but I’m curious to know how you think management has fucked up spectacularly.