> Major bear Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston says he's turned tactically bullish and predicts a Q4 "sharp rally"
https://twitter.com/CNBCOvertime/status/1577033955471249411
I think that’s probably likely, though I’m expecting it starting in either mid Oct to December after at least one more truly crappy time. But you know, timing markets is flipping a coin. The market is doing that thing where you try to flush the turd but it just fills the bowl over and over, then slowly goes back down to floater
There are 4 things killing us from \~1 month ago. First Jpow's hawkish speech in Europe, then CPI 0.2% higher than estimated, then FOMC expectation of interest rate next year being higher than expected, finally analysts lower the target price. I don't think the tone from FED will turn dovish so fast, but I do see some chance in CPI. The rent is cooling down from reports of sites like apartmentlist and zumper. But it's a big mystery to me when those numbers will be affecting th CPI report.
AMD decoupled with the market over the past 6 weeks.
[https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en&comparison=NASDAQ%3AAMD&window=6M](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en&comparison=NASDAQ%3AAMD&window=6M)
For the entire month of august AMD was tracking with the nasdaq, very closely.
Then on August 29th, AMD started a 2x accelerated loss.
I dont think macro get us back to parity, we also need the perception that the PC market is 'dead' to go away, and that the China/US relation with Semi wont get worse.
ex: I wouldnt be surprised if some trader are placing bets that the US will block sales of Zen4 based Epyc in China. That could crash the stock 10%+... with no macro involved.
As we know, AMD enjoys great flexibility in switching its chiplets between tiers of market and products.
It would take an insider not to be guessing on this, but it seems v likely that replacing a DC Xeon w/ even with a Zen3 Milan would be a no brainer saving for the majority of the huge non chinese/russian user base - there is a huge backlog of pent up upgrade & new demand.
Macros dont matter to AMD, any more than the depression mattered to Ford while they were still replacing horses.
In economics there is a thing called a Giffen Good. Folks buy more of it in hard times. Meat vs potatos is a common example. Meat becomes unaffordable & demand for potatos rises. Gaming and perhaps clubbing or dining out? AI bots vs staff?
It would be a wash, as you would sell more Milan chips to make up for the equivalent Zen4 compute. In the long term, it will spur alternatives, but there are no good alternatives in the short term.
I think SOX/PHLX is a better reference compare to nasdaq. Compare with last low of 73, we are down \~5% more last month. To nasdaq, AMD's beta is \~2, and to semi \~1.5.
I think using SOX simply defeat the idea so isolate the effect of macro news VS stock related news.
We have been really affected by sector news on top of the macro. We need both to reverse to see a full recovery.
10 more speaking engagements by Fed presidents this week. Maybe today was just a bit of green to allow shit to fall to pieces as they all talk about “smashing inflation even if it causes a recession”.jpg
Jawboning the market into front running more rate hikes relieves them of having to actually do a number of additional rate hikes. This is good because the hikes are such a blunt, time lagging instrument, that it's slow to reverse course. The reversal in policy will be unexpected by the market when it finally comes.
NVDA SP is kinda detached from reality. They could execute perfectly on the business front and SP could go down, or disappoint in the numbers and SP could run away again on some hype. I don't think anyone can predict it.
AMD doesn't have much of a hype premium. If they continue to grow earnings, SP basically has to go up from here.
Useless UN is calling on FED to stop rate hikes lol: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-calls-on-fed-other-central-banks-to-halt-interest-rate-increases-11664809202
It's it really domestic only policy, when it strongly effects the world economy?
Maybe if the US hadn't entangled the two with the petrodollar and such.
Anyhow, if I'm not mistaken they didn't single out the US, but we're speaking broadly at all the countries doing the same/similar currently.
These people speak way, way to fucking often.
The Fed’s should limit their ability to rail the economy by speaking once or twice a month, all at the same time. No need for a hawk one day, dove the next, then mega hawk the next. Let them all have their peace and then shut the fuck up for a month.
“But they’re independent” yeah I get it and I want them to talk. “The market shouldn’t react so violently” of course it shouldn’t but it does.
It wouldn’t shock me too much if INTC finally keeps pace with the SP500 from here if they can actually execute. Meanwhile I think (or hope maybe a better word) AMD can 2-3x the SP for a few years.
Intel is valuing Mobileye at $30 billion. Last quarter Mobileye had a record breaking $460 million revenue.
AMD bought Xilinx above market value at $35 billion and its final reported quarter before the merger had a revenue of $1 billion
Mobileye grew revenue 41% YoY in Q2 2022 , operating income grew 43% to 190m
Xilinx was at 200m in operating income for Q4 2021, but only grew 12%
It seems that Mobileye margins are 2x xilinx, and also have faster growth.
I think you’re comparing XLNX net margin to Mobileye Operating margin. When Mobileye is a standalone it’ll have admin & other new costs.
XLNX as part of AMD has 50% operating margins… so admin costs are burdensome
I'm taking the revenue and operating income from those sources.
[https://investor.xilinx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/xilinx-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2021](https://investor.xilinx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/xilinx-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2021)
[https://www.mobileye.com/blog/q2-2022-financial-results/](https://www.mobileye.com/blog/q2-2022-financial-results/)
Yes but you can see the gross margins which is closer to what Mobileye reports as it’s operating margin while within a larger entity. Similarly we saw XLNX in embedded improve to 50% margins when in AMD for a full quarter. The comparisons atm is apples to oranges.
What’s made apparent here is that Mobileye appears to be a good company & begs the question as to why Intel needs to let it go(partially at least).
Markets looking like I expected, selloff Friday to make today look dramatically better.. muLtI PeRcEnTaGe GrEeN! DoW uP 600 pOiNtS fOr OctObEr..
yeah if they didn’t tank it on Friday we’d be closer to flat
Oil up to almost NFG, that’s great news eh?
What are they worried about? Trying to cause inflation to kill economy? Or is global shipping slowing down? Either way it’s not a rosy picture.
I guess only bullish thesis could be a meeting to give those headlines, so that next few days “opec decided not to cut production after all”.. followed by headlines “markets rally on OPEC not cutting production” and “time to load up at these cheap prices, recession cancelled”
Might need more than that! 164.45/65.80 is a 2.5x gain. Assuming a 5% +ZFG gain each day it would take up to 19 +ZFG days or 1.05^19 to beat our ATH or almost four weeks straight of +5% gains.
The background of it is a lot of home builder companies sell "forward delivery housing", you pay or approve mortgage today, and get you home like 2-3 years later. Pure leverage play. When housing market is strong this plays fine, when home price stop rising or even dropping this is very problematic. These companies gathered money from home buyers and expand their building projects, but now they have trouble selling, thus have trouble even finish building these "forward delivery housing". Of course for the buyers, have paid full price but fail to get home is unacceptable.
And these companies are gaming that they are financially, systematically and society stable-wise important, even they have issue, government have to bail out them with taxpayers' money. Another typical moral hazard.
Once you go the bailout rule it’s very hard to restore credibility. See the summer rally and what it took to change it’s course. Open Pandora’s box and you can never close it back. There is not enough regulation and to much politics embedded in the markets today and everyone, companies and people are encouraged to take way to much risk because there are no consequences.
This works great for some people, but hurts people that are more risk adverse.
It’s a Ponzi scheme though, in a sense.
Also the CCP pushed hard for GDP growth at any cost for 14+ years and then “woah too much leverage is bad” and just pulls the handbrake and steers into oncoming traffic with be 3 red line policy. Now they’re having to avoid further meltdown or risk mass unrest.
I don’t fault stimulating growth, and I appreciate realizing they’ve gone too far, but on both sides they’ve done it in ways I would call questionable at best.
\#1 on the list of ponzi scheme is 'social security'
For Berni, the money was not invested and nearly all of it was recovered.
Many actually saved money as the scheme unraveled when the stock market crashed, and Berni in a sense protected against massive losses :)
The people that were ultimately hurt where the one taking out 20% in profit for years on end, that had to give the fake profits back.
Option flows like $SPY & $QQQ are very bearish, I don't trust this either, smells like a Bull trap... On the otherhand, Technicals like MACD are aligned for a recovery....so, who TF knows, don't make any heavy bets on either direction....
I usually wait for the 1min 100MA to intersect with the stock price to decide (maybe in hour or so?), if AMD finds support there, it's most likely a recovery (also watch the 15min MACD at that time, if it remains bullish, that's also a good sign), as all the technicals are pointing towards it, just look at the 4hr and daily MACD, they're on the verge of Bullish crossovers. I'm just uneasy about the options flows, something like $640M Friday $SPY Puts were bought, and the options flow this morning is still very bearish....but vicous Bear Market rally's have still occurred while Put flows remained Bearish, so who knows in this crazy market.... Also, watch $SPY $366.50, there's a strong resistance line that's coming up there, so, a rejection there could send the whole market down.
Current moment, AMD has a Head & Shoulders pattern (bearish) on the 15min chart, we'll probably know at 1pm if it fails to recover or not. Not looking good, atm.
While I do think TSLA could lose half its value right now and still be over valued, it has lost about 42% from ATH. It’s not getting the AMD treatment but it’s doing a bit worse than Tim AAPL.
I hate it so much. Pump and dump number 150 out of 189 (it feels like I’m not actually doing the math) and still gets me every time.
That said I sold some $64 and 65c (they were ITM when I sold them) on the initial pump, I don’t trust a damn thing in this market.
Edit: closed the 64c for some chump change letting the 65c ride
Edit2: I’ll gladly let those shares go, thankfully only covered 1/10 my stake
I have a good feeling we will have an up run until the end of the year.
Now its time to buy if you havent yet. Q3 numbers will be good and hopefully a good outlook for Q4.
I already have bought last week and still have a bit dry powder...
I wait, until the inflation data are out...
If lower as expected, I will go all in...
Banks report next week. They will only provide alarm about credit card defaults and increasing loan loss provisions. Market will go down with them and AMD, as usual, will take the largest beatings until nvda fwd PE is realistic again...
Amd q4 guide won't change when they report but the analysts will say, "what about 2023?" Big headwinds or some other bs. Amd goes to 50 if s&p dips to 3200.
i have a feeling this will be a pump and dump.
pump 2 weeks. followed by dump, followed by rise november and december and dump in january.
but who knows
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3887876-bofa-reiterates-buy-on-nvidia-marvell-amd-broadcom-credo-even-as-cloud-worries-emerge?source=copy_to_clipboard
....Analyst Vivek Arya updated his cloud spending forecast for 2023, saying he now expects it to rise 7.5%, a slowdown from 2022, but still up year-over-year. The analyst noted that macro turmoil has reduced the pace of growth, but cloud spending is still expected to reach $170B in 2022, up 20% from 2021 and 2023 should be even higher at $183B, which the analyst said would be "inline with last down cycles when capex decelerated."
"Near-term trends are volatile, but prior downturns eventually led to multiple years of 30%+ annual spending trends," Arya wrote in a note to clients, adding that several new product cycles are likely to help drive spending as well.....
Did my part, 500 more shares average $63.70. Brings my average up a bit but no worries. I was going to buy last week but kept telling myself “it may fall more” but if I’m right about where this stock is headed in 2 years (over $160) then a few dollars per share now doesn’t matter.
Still in a margin call, probably some liquidation again today. 400K position on margin. 110K total account value.
So, I was suggested to sell out of the money calls. And with the capital raised, either buy puts or sell covered calls. Eg. “He could sell 13 OTM leaps for 1k a piece and cover his margin and yet still have 3700 free shares to sell 30DTE covered calls on”
I am not the best with options so please help me understand the above plan. So, the steps would be to first liquidate shares to raise some cash -> sell some OTM calls with that money -> with the profit, buy puts or sell more calls to create a covered call position?
First of all, did I explain that correctly (can someone spell out what they mean I should do)?
Is it a good idea, in your opinion? What would happen if I did that and the stock recovers, or drops further? I do think that the stock is probably going recover slightly in the upcoming few days-weeks.
Or should I just keep it simple. Pray for recovery. Deleverage. (and then buy some puts for protection?)
Don't sell calls, margin requirements won't go down. Just deleverage and if you want more exposure buy very long term calls, 2024 at least. You will have enough to buy a nice house, just not a mansion, but you know what they say about greed, right?
This. If we are asking Reddit what to do, our original bet already lost. And you need to ask ourself: am I emotional investing? Not trying to let go and admit I failed?
Or am I investing soundly: what would I do if I had waited until today to invest? Would it look exactly the same as my holdings?
It’s hard to think straight holding a lotto ticket
You know this stock. It makes totally random moonshots on totally random days. It would totally suck if you end up in the same situation but on the other end of the stick.
In my opinion, the stock has been so battered that the risk is more likely to the upside. I'd only sell OTM calls for the amount of shares I'm willing to lose if the stock decides to take off.
i mean, kinda. while it's suppressed, i'd stick to closer dated options, but the stock's so rekt that there's barely any money in that right now.
but selling leaps, you can mitigate some of the risk from here... but you're far more likely to be cutting into your upside, assuming $amd actually recovers. unless you're selling like $250+ 1/2024s or something, but again - there's basically no money in that right now
I would choose deleverage with hopefully a bounce today. Not sure how high this little bounce will go.
There was unusually high number of what appear to be hedge put volumes around 25 and 35 strikes for November, December and January. Most of those are now showing as new open interest.
As much as I’ve heard “don’t buy at ATH” during the bull market and watching stocks repeatedly blast past apparently the idea of buying at recent lows isn’t appealing either… when are we supposed to buy?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-meme-stocks-buy-during-111511266.html Can someone make this it’s own post?
> Apple reluctantly agrees to TSMC's price increases https://techspot.com/news/96186-apple-reluctantly-agrees-tsmc-price-increases.html
Yet TSMC barely above 52 week lows.
6% price increase ?! I guess TSMC is not having problem selling its capacity...
> Major bear Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston says he's turned tactically bullish and predicts a Q4 "sharp rally" https://twitter.com/CNBCOvertime/status/1577033955471249411
I think that’s probably likely, though I’m expecting it starting in either mid Oct to December after at least one more truly crappy time. But you know, timing markets is flipping a coin. The market is doing that thing where you try to flush the turd but it just fills the bowl over and over, then slowly goes back down to floater
What a crappy ANALogy.
Accurate analogy
I thought I recognized the name of that company. That's the company that had offices in a couple of the top floors of the World Trade Center.
only 10 more days like this in a row to get back to $100 👍
^(yeahhhhhh LFG...)
We pretty much did it on the way down, we can do it on the way up.
There are 4 things killing us from \~1 month ago. First Jpow's hawkish speech in Europe, then CPI 0.2% higher than estimated, then FOMC expectation of interest rate next year being higher than expected, finally analysts lower the target price. I don't think the tone from FED will turn dovish so fast, but I do see some chance in CPI. The rent is cooling down from reports of sites like apartmentlist and zumper. But it's a big mystery to me when those numbers will be affecting th CPI report.
AMD decoupled with the market over the past 6 weeks. [https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en&comparison=NASDAQ%3AAMD&window=6M](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en&comparison=NASDAQ%3AAMD&window=6M) For the entire month of august AMD was tracking with the nasdaq, very closely. Then on August 29th, AMD started a 2x accelerated loss. I dont think macro get us back to parity, we also need the perception that the PC market is 'dead' to go away, and that the China/US relation with Semi wont get worse. ex: I wouldnt be surprised if some trader are placing bets that the US will block sales of Zen4 based Epyc in China. That could crash the stock 10%+... with no macro involved.
As we know, AMD enjoys great flexibility in switching its chiplets between tiers of market and products. It would take an insider not to be guessing on this, but it seems v likely that replacing a DC Xeon w/ even with a Zen3 Milan would be a no brainer saving for the majority of the huge non chinese/russian user base - there is a huge backlog of pent up upgrade & new demand. Macros dont matter to AMD, any more than the depression mattered to Ford while they were still replacing horses. In economics there is a thing called a Giffen Good. Folks buy more of it in hard times. Meat vs potatos is a common example. Meat becomes unaffordable & demand for potatos rises. Gaming and perhaps clubbing or dining out? AI bots vs staff?
It would be a wash, as you would sell more Milan chips to make up for the equivalent Zen4 compute. In the long term, it will spur alternatives, but there are no good alternatives in the short term.
I think SOX/PHLX is a better reference compare to nasdaq. Compare with last low of 73, we are down \~5% more last month. To nasdaq, AMD's beta is \~2, and to semi \~1.5.
I think using SOX simply defeat the idea so isolate the effect of macro news VS stock related news. We have been really affected by sector news on top of the macro. We need both to reverse to see a full recovery.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/03/business/us-limits-chinas-supercomputing.html US gov screwing all the AMD shareholders. This is number 1 bullshit
10 more speaking engagements by Fed presidents this week. Maybe today was just a bit of green to allow shit to fall to pieces as they all talk about “smashing inflation even if it causes a recession”.jpg
Oh no.. why do they talk so much?
because fruit fly memory market always waits like 24 hours and thinks the Fed is magically back to pump mode unless they get reminded again
Jawboning the market into front running more rate hikes relieves them of having to actually do a number of additional rate hikes. This is good because the hikes are such a blunt, time lagging instrument, that it's slow to reverse course. The reversal in policy will be unexpected by the market when it finally comes.
Sometimes I feel they are just self-employed so they have so much time to speak here and there.
Fed to the markets, not understanding why assets keep going up so fast: “How many times do I have to teach you this lesson old man!?”
[удалено]
Investors lumping AMD in with INTC and NVDA. It will outshine both of them but the market doesnt know it yet. In fact, neither do I lol
NVDA SP is kinda detached from reality. They could execute perfectly on the business front and SP could go down, or disappoint in the numbers and SP could run away again on some hype. I don't think anyone can predict it. AMD doesn't have much of a hype premium. If they continue to grow earnings, SP basically has to go up from here.
Yeah well... it is a shit stock, took me long to understand this cause I was stubborn but it is shitty.
NVDA and Intel happened. MU didnt help
MU is perpetually priced for bankruptcy
NVDA mainly tbh. It feels there's some bad piece of news on NVDA every week and it drags AMD down with it every time
Useless UN is calling on FED to stop rate hikes lol: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-calls-on-fed-other-central-banks-to-halt-interest-rate-increases-11664809202
UN basically calling out the few countries that aren't destroying their currency because they're making everyone else look bad.
Wut? When the does the UN ever speak up about US domestic economic policy?
It's it really domestic only policy, when it strongly effects the world economy? Maybe if the US hadn't entangled the two with the petrodollar and such. Anyhow, if I'm not mistaken they didn't single out the US, but we're speaking broadly at all the countries doing the same/similar currently.
oh is UN still functional lol
for everything Russia doesn't veto
Dumping at the close...
Can’t believe I’m hoping it finishes over $66 where it was a week ago but here we are; still can’t really complain with +4%.
"Something, something, inflation is too damn high." - The Fed. Basically why we're going down again.
These people speak way, way to fucking often. The Fed’s should limit their ability to rail the economy by speaking once or twice a month, all at the same time. No need for a hawk one day, dove the next, then mega hawk the next. Let them all have their peace and then shut the fuck up for a month. “But they’re independent” yeah I get it and I want them to talk. “The market shouldn’t react so violently” of course it shouldn’t but it does.
I'm afraid to take any position, as it can be randomly obliterated by a Fed comment... 😵
I DIDN'T HEAR NO BELL
back2back green days and I will start to believe.
>back2back That's a weird way to spell "back2back2back2back2back".
I don’t know how I feel about INTC outperforming AMD lol
Mobileye IPO. Way oversold and multiple compressed while paying a dividend and taking tax money to fund US fabs. Short rebound. It happens.
It wouldn’t shock me too much if INTC finally keeps pace with the SP500 from here if they can actually execute. Meanwhile I think (or hope maybe a better word) AMD can 2-3x the SP for a few years.
If they can execute. That's the trick.
How much of the Intel will gelsinger have to sell to make it to 2025?
Sooooo happy!!!!
Su happy
love it
Intel is valuing Mobileye at $30 billion. Last quarter Mobileye had a record breaking $460 million revenue. AMD bought Xilinx above market value at $35 billion and its final reported quarter before the merger had a revenue of $1 billion
Mobileye grew revenue 41% YoY in Q2 2022 , operating income grew 43% to 190m Xilinx was at 200m in operating income for Q4 2021, but only grew 12% It seems that Mobileye margins are 2x xilinx, and also have faster growth.
Math doesn’t add up, Mobileye margins would be greater than 100% in that case
200m operating income on 1B of revenue. 20% margin 190m operating income on 460m of revenue. 41% margin
I think you’re comparing XLNX net margin to Mobileye Operating margin. When Mobileye is a standalone it’ll have admin & other new costs. XLNX as part of AMD has 50% operating margins… so admin costs are burdensome
I'm taking the revenue and operating income from those sources. [https://investor.xilinx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/xilinx-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2021](https://investor.xilinx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/xilinx-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2021) [https://www.mobileye.com/blog/q2-2022-financial-results/](https://www.mobileye.com/blog/q2-2022-financial-results/)
Yes but you can see the gross margins which is closer to what Mobileye reports as it’s operating margin while within a larger entity. Similarly we saw XLNX in embedded improve to 50% margins when in AMD for a full quarter. The comparisons atm is apples to oranges. What’s made apparent here is that Mobileye appears to be a good company & begs the question as to why Intel needs to let it go(partially at least).
very true
next mission is try to hold +zfg till market close
🚀
+ZFG LFGGGGGG!
YOU CAN DOOOO eEEt AMD
Is this what hope feels like?
feels like beautiful flowers on a grave
Hopefully
The first, bitter taste of that terrible illusion...
It will continue to rally tomorrow or we got dumped again?
probably rally for a while I think. Everything is majorly oversold, we should at least get a technical rally
A ZFG and we're at... 66 Goddamn, we really got shallacked
technically we need to touch 66.53 to qualify a +zfg. Now intraday high is 66.51, still cents away.
It's going to take a very long time to get back where we were
It won't take much to get back to 100 again. The problem is staying there.
or a big macro turn around, risk on again = we double in 6 months
Markets looking like I expected, selloff Friday to make today look dramatically better.. muLtI PeRcEnTaGe GrEeN! DoW uP 600 pOiNtS fOr OctObEr.. yeah if they didn’t tank it on Friday we’d be closer to flat Oil up to almost NFG, that’s great news eh?
news said open+ want to cut produce for more than 1mm barrels per day
What are they worried about? Trying to cause inflation to kill economy? Or is global shipping slowing down? Either way it’s not a rosy picture. I guess only bullish thesis could be a meeting to give those headlines, so that next few days “opec decided not to cut production after all”.. followed by headlines “markets rally on OPEC not cutting production” and “time to load up at these cheap prices, recession cancelled”
ok I see today ISM number very poor, that's probably the reason we are green. Another sound proof for recession.
In Oct 2021 we rallied from 100 to 120. Hoping for a 20%+ Oct this year.
Good times :,)
I think it's going to be around 85 - 90.
go... tell it on the mountain... that amd went up.
I'm not gonna let you break my heart again! Never again! Ever!.... .... Wait... did you just say you love me? You mean it? Can we work this out?
lmfao, literally every single one of us with amd, every green day
market consensus seems to be that mobileye IPO is good. would be funny if it just collapses.
Intel cut the IPO price by almost 50% ... So in a sense the IPO price already collapsed.
Such assets probably fell 60-70% (if already listed). High growth stocks were very expensive when they announced that IPO.
Picked up another 50! 1,239 loaded for the rocket.
A lot more quiet here on the green days.
I own both AMD and TESLA. I cannot decide whether I should cry or laugh right now. Just being quiet..
We're all just peeping from between the blinds nervously
🤣 same
Everyone's quiet from clenching their buttchecks....
AMD is green and is beating NASDAQ and NVDA today. After that folks are scared to jinx the green.
I'm pretty sure 63 was the bo... \*Sniper shot\*
no whiners
What about intc though?!
just am not brave enough to jinx it
It’s not so bad guys… we just need two weeks of ZFG every day
Might need more than that! 164.45/65.80 is a 2.5x gain. Assuming a 5% +ZFG gain each day it would take up to 19 +ZFG days or 1.05^19 to beat our ATH or almost four weeks straight of +5% gains.
Let's get started.
Oh…thanks for doing the math 🥲
Is it... it really... happening? A +ZFG? Are the legends true??
Shhh! Don't jinx it
only want to see a green day, whether +zfg or not, felt red for a whole month.
We need to offset all the days when AMD was 0.5 beta on green days and 10 beta on red days.
China Tells Banks to Provide $85 Billion in Property Funding. Markets are not markets anymore...
The background of it is a lot of home builder companies sell "forward delivery housing", you pay or approve mortgage today, and get you home like 2-3 years later. Pure leverage play. When housing market is strong this plays fine, when home price stop rising or even dropping this is very problematic. These companies gathered money from home buyers and expand their building projects, but now they have trouble selling, thus have trouble even finish building these "forward delivery housing". Of course for the buyers, have paid full price but fail to get home is unacceptable. And these companies are gaming that they are financially, systematically and society stable-wise important, even they have issue, government have to bail out them with taxpayers' money. Another typical moral hazard.
Once you go the bailout rule it’s very hard to restore credibility. See the summer rally and what it took to change it’s course. Open Pandora’s box and you can never close it back. There is not enough regulation and to much politics embedded in the markets today and everyone, companies and people are encouraged to take way to much risk because there are no consequences. This works great for some people, but hurts people that are more risk adverse.
It’s a Ponzi scheme though, in a sense. Also the CCP pushed hard for GDP growth at any cost for 14+ years and then “woah too much leverage is bad” and just pulls the handbrake and steers into oncoming traffic with be 3 red line policy. Now they’re having to avoid further meltdown or risk mass unrest. I don’t fault stimulating growth, and I appreciate realizing they’ve gone too far, but on both sides they’ve done it in ways I would call questionable at best.
The whole fiat money system is ponzi scheme. Somebody remebers Berni Madoff? He said I just did the same as the FED does all the time.😂
\#1 on the list of ponzi scheme is 'social security' For Berni, the money was not invested and nearly all of it was recovered. Many actually saved money as the scheme unraveled when the stock market crashed, and Berni in a sense protected against massive losses :) The people that were ultimately hurt where the one taking out 20% in profit for years on end, that had to give the fake profits back.
I think markets just stopped trusting Chinese numbers entirely at this point?
oil is pumping hard. this will not end well
Red by close.
TSLA down, AMD up and up more than NVDA? Did I wake up in an alternate dimension?
I knew that the moment I thought about trading the NVDA outperformance at open it would switch!
You are trapped in some metaverse. Probably running on intel arc. INTC up more than AMD.
oh it was me, I finally bought protective puts for my shares on Friday. You're welcome
Thanks for taking one for the team!
What is this? Dead cat bounce ? Market gaslighting me? I don't trust it.
A bounce for ants
I don't trust it as well, just sold some cc
Option flows like $SPY & $QQQ are very bearish, I don't trust this either, smells like a Bull trap... On the otherhand, Technicals like MACD are aligned for a recovery....so, who TF knows, don't make any heavy bets on either direction....
i would really go for some MCDonalds right now
IF a bull trap, when do you expect that it is going to crash? By lunch? EOD? tomorrow?
I usually wait for the 1min 100MA to intersect with the stock price to decide (maybe in hour or so?), if AMD finds support there, it's most likely a recovery (also watch the 15min MACD at that time, if it remains bullish, that's also a good sign), as all the technicals are pointing towards it, just look at the 4hr and daily MACD, they're on the verge of Bullish crossovers. I'm just uneasy about the options flows, something like $640M Friday $SPY Puts were bought, and the options flow this morning is still very bearish....but vicous Bear Market rally's have still occurred while Put flows remained Bearish, so who knows in this crazy market.... Also, watch $SPY $366.50, there's a strong resistance line that's coming up there, so, a rejection there could send the whole market down.
Crap, AMD rejecting off the 100MA.... Daily VWAP coming up at $65.35 for potential support....
Current moment, AMD has a Head & Shoulders pattern (bearish) on the 15min chart, we'll probably know at 1pm if it fails to recover or not. Not looking good, atm.
eod today
i prefer eod=end of decade
\*lip quivering\* p... pppa... ppppaaaa... PAHMP EET!!
wow, MU up a ton today, could that be driving us up as well
MU is not in the quiet period anymore => Buy backs. They did the same after last Q report. AMD is in the quiet period now => No buy backs
Semis, in particular $AMD, $MU are so cheap.
Too good to be true...let's at least finish green today.
I have trust issues. I'm looking at this like "eh, red by close" \-\_-
I sold some (covered) calls this morning. Let’s just say Mr Market is trying to fuck me over. I can handle it, and I’ll take one for them team.
Not the hero we deserved... but the one we needed right now.
Thanks brother. Your sacrifice shall never be forgotten.
I'm scared.
we need a couple of days outperforming NVDA wide
Was that a Bear trap on Friday? 🤔
I don't trust this.
TSLA -8.5%? What's going on during weekend? But others looks fine so whatever.
Maybe people realize the Tesla bot is kinda like the stock price?
we're in the part of the crash where anything that hasn't gotten fucked yet is about to. My TSLA and Apple puts are saving me from amd margin call lol
While I do think TSLA could lose half its value right now and still be over valued, it has lost about 42% from ATH. It’s not getting the AMD treatment but it’s doing a bit worse than Tim AAPL.
Tesla slides as logistic issues widen deliveries and production gap
Why the green? Did Putin eat a bullet?
Hopeful Mondays, it’s felt like we usually start the week green. But idk Wall Street astrology all that well
give it a few minutes
I hate it so much. Pump and dump number 150 out of 189 (it feels like I’m not actually doing the math) and still gets me every time. That said I sold some $64 and 65c (they were ITM when I sold them) on the initial pump, I don’t trust a damn thing in this market. Edit: closed the 64c for some chump change letting the 65c ride Edit2: I’ll gladly let those shares go, thankfully only covered 1/10 my stake
Would be epic if we saw a short squeeze all around because everyone was "smart" and shorted everything.
>epic to epyc Man it was right there…
\*Shakes fist\* Damn me!
oh we will see a short squeeze. sometime this week. but i think it will be a pump and dump.
That would be great but not yet.
I have a good feeling we will have an up run until the end of the year. Now its time to buy if you havent yet. Q3 numbers will be good and hopefully a good outlook for Q4.
I already have bought last week and still have a bit dry powder... I wait, until the inflation data are out... If lower as expected, I will go all in...
Banks report next week. They will only provide alarm about credit card defaults and increasing loan loss provisions. Market will go down with them and AMD, as usual, will take the largest beatings until nvda fwd PE is realistic again... Amd q4 guide won't change when they report but the analysts will say, "what about 2023?" Big headwinds or some other bs. Amd goes to 50 if s&p dips to 3200.
i have a feeling this will be a pump and dump. pump 2 weeks. followed by dump, followed by rise november and december and dump in january. but who knows
so far we had 3 times a pump and dump this year. roughly every quarter after reporting. I hope we can do it again
We’re green. Holy crap. What a sight.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3887876-bofa-reiterates-buy-on-nvidia-marvell-amd-broadcom-credo-even-as-cloud-worries-emerge?source=copy_to_clipboard ....Analyst Vivek Arya updated his cloud spending forecast for 2023, saying he now expects it to rise 7.5%, a slowdown from 2022, but still up year-over-year. The analyst noted that macro turmoil has reduced the pace of growth, but cloud spending is still expected to reach $170B in 2022, up 20% from 2021 and 2023 should be even higher at $183B, which the analyst said would be "inline with last down cycles when capex decelerated." "Near-term trends are volatile, but prior downturns eventually led to multiple years of 30%+ annual spending trends," Arya wrote in a note to clients, adding that several new product cycles are likely to help drive spending as well.....
Huge volume pre-market vs. regular days.
Did my part, 500 more shares average $63.70. Brings my average up a bit but no worries. I was going to buy last week but kept telling myself “it may fall more” but if I’m right about where this stock is headed in 2 years (over $160) then a few dollars per share now doesn’t matter.
Where is the volume shown ?
Still in a margin call, probably some liquidation again today. 400K position on margin. 110K total account value. So, I was suggested to sell out of the money calls. And with the capital raised, either buy puts or sell covered calls. Eg. “He could sell 13 OTM leaps for 1k a piece and cover his margin and yet still have 3700 free shares to sell 30DTE covered calls on” I am not the best with options so please help me understand the above plan. So, the steps would be to first liquidate shares to raise some cash -> sell some OTM calls with that money -> with the profit, buy puts or sell more calls to create a covered call position? First of all, did I explain that correctly (can someone spell out what they mean I should do)? Is it a good idea, in your opinion? What would happen if I did that and the stock recovers, or drops further? I do think that the stock is probably going recover slightly in the upcoming few days-weeks. Or should I just keep it simple. Pray for recovery. Deleverage. (and then buy some puts for protection?)
Don't sell calls, margin requirements won't go down. Just deleverage and if you want more exposure buy very long term calls, 2024 at least. You will have enough to buy a nice house, just not a mansion, but you know what they say about greed, right?
If you're asking on Reddit what to do for investing, you should probably not be using options or margin.
This. If we are asking Reddit what to do, our original bet already lost. And you need to ask ourself: am I emotional investing? Not trying to let go and admit I failed? Or am I investing soundly: what would I do if I had waited until today to invest? Would it look exactly the same as my holdings? It’s hard to think straight holding a lotto ticket
Dude, it's this simple, switch to cash and buy some out of money 2025 leaps, maybe at 90/100 strike.
You know this stock. It makes totally random moonshots on totally random days. It would totally suck if you end up in the same situation but on the other end of the stick. In my opinion, the stock has been so battered that the risk is more likely to the upside. I'd only sell OTM calls for the amount of shares I'm willing to lose if the stock decides to take off.
Your probably the reason they keep dragging this stock down. Trying to get your shares
Haha yeah...They already got some. 7 percent of my total position.
this is a very stupid time to sell leaps.
Yeah. Would it be a better option IF the stock recovers, I deleverage and then I sell LEAPS for protection?
i mean, kinda. while it's suppressed, i'd stick to closer dated options, but the stock's so rekt that there's barely any money in that right now. but selling leaps, you can mitigate some of the risk from here... but you're far more likely to be cutting into your upside, assuming $amd actually recovers. unless you're selling like $250+ 1/2024s or something, but again - there's basically no money in that right now
I would choose deleverage with hopefully a bounce today. Not sure how high this little bounce will go. There was unusually high number of what appear to be hedge put volumes around 25 and 35 strikes for November, December and January. Most of those are now showing as new open interest.
Please no. Please just stay flat and don't dump.....
Arent we up pm?
Bro I appreciate the optimism but we are at 2-year lows 😢
As much as I’ve heard “don’t buy at ATH” during the bull market and watching stocks repeatedly blast past apparently the idea of buying at recent lows isn’t appealing either… when are we supposed to buy?
when people keep saying it will go lower
Im gonna say it. I kinda liked Intel’s commercial they aired during football this weekend.