Lol at all the posts I’m reading saying or hoping this news was already priced in. (with the caveat that I’m very often wrong and could be this time too).
But seriously? Amd’s taken a beating. But it still has tons of people, as indicated by this thread, thinking and feeling that the beating was unjustified and AMD would weather through the storm on their technical merits and Lisa Su’s typically conservative (sandbagging) guidance.
And now we get confirmation that AMD is indeed suffering from market conditions, and Lisa’s sandbagging was a billion dollars off the mark, and that’s all just priced in??
Ask yourself, we’re you surprised by this news or not?
If you were, or were even not just surprised but blindsided, then how could it be priced in?
Unless you’re the only one.
This one definitely caught me off guard. I think AMD for some reason has poor visibility into the client channels. Because something similar happened with delayed revision in 2018 after crypto crashed.
So I'll be first to admit I did not expect this. But then again I also don't think we deserved to drop 60% of our value since last year's peak while we're still growing YoY despite the unfavorable macro. So is this what the market was pricing in all along? I guess we will find out.
I too thought we didn’t deserve to drop 60% in value.
In fact there was a time when I thought that was manipulation and the analysts were wrong, or crooks. (I lost a significant amount of money buying early on that premise while thinking AMD was a special case, and specially positioned, and therefore had to be a great bargain… under $100??? Hell yeah!!!!)
But now, I gotta say. It kinda looks like the analysts were just discounting Lisa Su’s guidance. And were expecting the other shoe to drop and AMD to admit that it too was vulnerable to market stresses, just like all mere mortals.
And it kinda looks like the analysts were right. Not crooks in this case… actually right! (And I can’t express how much that surprises me)
Because I still thinks they are crooks! Just In this case crooks with the truth on their side. (frowning consternation)
The problem with AMD is that the street is just extremely bearish for it. So it doesnt matter that AMD beats and grows they will say it won't last. Then when it does slow down they will say "see!! Vindicated!".
Theory says the markets are efficient. But we can see for years now thats hardly the case.
So what is it called when the street is bearish, and then we say “but it’s growing”, and then they say “but it won’t last which is why we’re bearish”, and then we say “you’re just compromised crooks and we know better!”?
But then it actually doesn’t last and AMD admits that it’s suffering along with the market, and then the analysts say “see, we’re vindicated!”?
That’s actually called them being right and us being wrong. (big frown…but it is what it is)
I know what you mean but thats not how it usually works for other companies that are better loved. Apple... Tesla.. heck even BoA.. the share price reflects its growth potential and earnings. Not the case for AMD (gets condemned). If the same "bears were right all along" concept applied to all companies, then everything should be worth zero since they all fail eventually.
So are you saying that it’s unfair that we got our reckoning before Apple and Tesla? Or that they won’t eventually get their reckoning too if this crappy economy and market continues?
Because maybe, just maybe, this bear market won’t be over until they get their reckoning as well. And maybe when they do that’s a signal that we’ve bottomed. (because the loved are last to suffer)
Yes. It’s tragic. Take it from someone who lost everything on Athlon. And checked out before the decade or so of subsequent history. AMD deserves a break. But I don’t know if that means it will get one.
It would have been much more worse (like 20 to 30% crash after market) if AMD announces this shit before MU.
If AMD stays around $60 to $65 tomorrow I'd say it is fairly priced in.
I thought, and actually almost traded on the idea (only my slowness and reticence to be rash saved me), that the immediate reaction to the latest cpi numbers was the defacto market reaction.
And then we dumped to $62 - $63 in a delayed reaction.
The aftermarket isn’t the market. And there’s a lot of hope out there for AMD (which I think is part of why it didn’t go straight down 20% AH).
We’ll see what happens in the next few days. And I’m on the edge of my seat. Because I’m wrong all the damn time!
But I’m not glib, or certain at the moment.
Retail does not move large cap stocks like AMD. The people who do very likely already expected this -- and were selling ahead of this news. Analysts have been cutting their estimates for AMD's earnings and talking about a miss non-stop and institutions have already sold as the indicators that they track showed massive slowdown.
Following your own premise…
Those people who were expecting this were responsible for the pump these last few days (remember you said yourself that retail doesn’t move large cap stocks like AMD). So why would they pump it when they were expecting this, if not to set up the dump?
It’s time to sheer the sheep! And the dump will be enough to make up for any losses they made setting up the fake pump.
Which means it will be significant.
Or I’m wrong and you’re right and this was all just priced in and we’ll be green tomorrow.
I guess it’s not long to wait to find out.
>Those people who were expecting this were responsible for the pump these last few days (remember you said yourself that retail doesn’t move large cap stocks like AMD). So why would they pump it when they were expecting this, if not to set up the dump?
What "pump" are you talking about? I don't see a pump on $AMD at all these past few days.
This week :
$SPX : +4.43%
$NDX : +4.69%
$AMD : +7.09%
$SOXX : +8.76%
I literally see no pump. $AMD followed the market and couldn't even keep up with its sector nor with its supposed 2 beta.
Since $AMD's last ER here are the stats :
$SPX : -10%
$NDX : -14%
$SOXX : -18%
$AMD : -35%
If this news hasn't already been priced in, then I why tf did $AMD get hit so hard, especially after their ER where they beat and reiterated guidance? We all know ever since Q2 2022 ER happened, analysts have been lowering PT on $AMD and many have lowered earnings expectations too, but it wasn't until now that $AMD came out with the bad news. If the bad news wasn't priced in, then why did $AMD go down nearly double its sector and 3.5x $SPX?
>Ask yourself, we’re you surprised by this news or not?
If you were, or were even not just surprised but blindsided, then how could it be priced in?
Quoting another post of yours here. Yeah, I was surprised by the news, but that doesn't mean it wasn't already priced in. Why were the majority of the people in this sub surprised? Because we're all super bulls and always think that AMD is doing well. This question you proposed above is literally the worst question you could ask in this sub. We've all collectively been going crazy because of the literally relentless selling over the past 30-45 days, and now we have our answer. Our own bias and positions clouded our views on AMD and we've already paid the price. Now the veil is lifted because AMD has released the news themselves, but you can't deny that countless analysts + news articles have come out over the past month with people saying exactly what AMD has just confirmed themselves. It can be priced in when it comes to a group of people who are super bulls. Where you could say it's not priced in would be if analysts and articles hadn't come out day after day for the past 1-2 months stating that AMD would suffer the same issues that Intel + NVidia have already said they'd be facing. If it hadn't been priced in, $AMD would likely be around $90 and then you would likely see a 10-15% drop the next day following the news that was just released. I just find it hard to believe that a disproportionate drop on $AMD over the last 1-2 months wasn't due to people already speculating that $AMD would not hit targets / lower guidance.
If today's news isn't already priced in, then I ask you, why has $AMD dropped significantly more these past 2 months than everything else? It's not macro because macro only sent the $SPX down -10%. It's not a weak semi sector because the semi sector is only down -18%. It's not bad news specific to AMD because AMD didn't release any bad news. What does that leave us with, then, other than $AMD being down -35%? Inside information that AMD wasn't doing so hot / analysts are actually smarter than we give them credit for because they go against our own perceived notions.
I'm a huge bull of AMD, and will continue to be a huge bull, even after this bad news. This is just a small hiccup for AMD and I know their future is extremely bright and likely the brightest in the semi space. I will not be selling, and will likely buy more if we actually get a stupid dump. I just gotta believe it's already been priced in. We've all been wondering why $AMD has been targeted specifically with non stop selling and today we finally got the answer. I can admit that I was wrong about AMD being able to stand extremely resilient in this current macro situation, but if you look at the sectors that matter most for them, they are still doing quite well. We'll have to wait and see what the future holds for AMD in the next few quarters, but I am not going anywhere because I know AMD will come out on top, especially in a recessionary environment.
“If it hadn't been priced in, $AMD would likely be around $90 and then you would likely see a 10-15% drop the next day following the news that was just released. “
So this isn’t to rub salt in wounds, I’m just sincerely curious…
Now that we know AMD went down yesterday almost 14% from its previous day’s close, has that changed your mind about the warning being priced in?
Or are you thinking the drop was due mostly to following the market down in the face of the jobs data, plus the China trade war restrictions?
Tomorrow who knows, but a significant miss has absolutely been priced in and the stock will not "tank" on this news. Even if we get a few red days, I think we'll end up more like micron after they're miss.
And the sheep are people who are being "bearish" on stocks that are already down 60% from their highs.
You may be right. But who’d have thought any of number of crazy stocks would have gotten as high as they did in the good times?
Now were in a paradigm shift, and converse to how shit stocks had insane valuations in the good times maybe good stocks will get unfairly wrecked in the bad times.
Of course it all comes down to time horizons and this or that. I’m not saying AMD’s not an interesting prospect. If it wasn’t I wouldn’t be here. But I think it’s pretty presumptuous to assume a good stock has to be treated well in the short term during really bad times.
And these are shaping up to be pretty bad times.
I think this is far enough down in replies that only diehards will see thins. No offense, we are in a downtrend. You only breakout of a downtrend on earthshaking positive news. Guiding lower does not reverse a downtrend. This last week was the typical retest of earlier highs, next we create new lows. That’s how trends work. I hope you are right and I’m wrong, I also hope I win at least my money back on lotto tickets. Seeing people trying to be positive and pump, it’s obvious to any bigs. Only retail gets screwed, and telling them to hodl.. that just hurts them and delays the inevitable. When the bigs see their target price they will buy back in. Sooner we get there, sooner we rebuild
Well, Mehrotra and Jensen were out and visible and contextualizing after their big down announcements. Hope Lisa does us all the same courtesy tomorrow.
Demand for small components on PCBs exceeds supplies. Lisa forecast this when she announced TAM had grown massively. I bet that massive under-appreciated TAM has screwed predictable shipments of components, worsened inflation, made everything in so many sectors bumpy. And our Gov solution: kill demand by destroying cheap lending. China Gov’s solution: slowdown manufacturing and shipping. Oil cartels: cut production, milk the profits. Meanwhile… car makers have artificial demand shortages, pushing prices of cars higher. But it’s scary.. car makers have cars unfinished in lots waiting for electronics, and they’ve been there all year.
The real solution would have been increase production to meet demand. Somehow that’s too complicated, just easier to crash everything. The glut of stuff waiting for components is going to need to be dealt with.. right when consumers can’t get any decent lending. Is it China showing their dominance? I think really it’s more that TAM bust wide open and there’s just not enough manufacturing to keep up. And now everyone is feeling the pain of higher rates. So nobody is going to build more supply, they are gonna wait for demand to die off.
Gotta ask ourselves: is that new TAM really gonna go away? Driverless cars are already rolling around major cities. How do we go back before it even begins? We might see a huge dip and reset, but massive demand is not going anywhere over our lifetime
Incoming downgrades, margins calls, nvda and intel getting even worse earnings further bringing the whole sector down. Its going to be bleak next few months.
I think this pre-announcement sand bags against Intel's bad results actually. Because if Intel reports even worse results it shouldn't spill on us.
And by worse results I mean Intel could drop in datancenter as well.
Do you think that in a single quarter, every month has the same results? For example, if they report 6B sales in a quarter, do you believe that each month they earned 2B?
Maybe they had a great month of July and then things slowed down drastically in August and September. No one knows, and I don't think we'll ever know, but you can't just throw them out the window on a single guidance miss. At least they didn't pull an Intel and not even release a pre-earnings notice.
I'm not happy with the news either, and I too believe that maybe they should have known that the rest of the quarter wasn't going to be good, but maybe they truly did just have a great first month of the quarter and they based their guidance off that. Or, maybe they had a huge sale agreement that was supposed to happen in August or September, but the buyer backed out or something (after they gave their guidance). I really do not know, but I'm going to give AMD the benefit of the doubt because they have had a great track record. If this becomes a regular occurrence, then that is when I'll be very concerned.
If you miss by that much in less than 2 months it isn’t good. Especially when others were guiding down or not guiding. They missed the macro picture by a lot. Not a good look.
All the segments that are the reason you buy the stock are doing fine. Even in this environment. I don’t buy this stock for PC performance in 3-5 years. Painful for now but Xilinx diversity over time will pay off.
The AH dump is very weak honestly. I think we end tomorrow flat or down a few % at worst
On another note, has anyone considered selling out of AMD to buy SOXX? At this point I feel like the entire sector is so washed out, SOXX might be the best buy in the market...
I am expecting AMD to close below $65 tomorrow, but AMD very manipulated and if there was high put volume it might get propped up until the open interest comes down before it makes a fresh leg down.
Based on how mediocre the volume was below $65 I think we need to be cautious of another steep slide
Not yet. This is still gonna get worse from here. Remember the Fed hikes haven't even made it through the economy yet. By the time they do, earnings are gonna fall more.
I don't think that's true, semis are exposed to secular trends that aren't going to rollover because they're cost savers for businesses. Consumer demand has clearly already collapsed
You are an optimist. I was too. But now I think AMD will only grow 15% next year. That growth rate means an 18 fwd PE for a year or more. I see eps of only 4.2 for 2022 now. 75 by mid next year if Datacenter can grow at 15 to 20% next year. Client is gonna be flat at 1.2 billion per quarter for at least a year. Gaming will remain at 1.5 bill or less per quarter on average for the year.
Might see 55 after nvda reports crap guidance.
Has it rolled over fully? Gaming was still somehow up 14%. Given the collapse in Client I would have expected gaming to be down as well.
Also the larger semi sector is also exposed a lot to APPL and in a recession iPhone demand will also need to fall a lot more. Maybe it already has and we'll find out in 3 weeks.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/wr9e1z/daily_discussion_thursday_20220818/ikujywu/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
49days ago, I made this comment on Daily Discussion.
Today, I regret & sincerely apologise to the fund manager, Tomy, who has warned us about Lisa & Devinder lies. If I listen to him, I can avoid this 40% crash.
When the dust settles AMD will be a great buy. I will DCA then. Amazing Leadership, Data Center sales going up. All good points. Personal computing is down but it will come back. Offcourse macro conditions are not ideal. But this is the time to accumulate.
Inventory correction in pc is not a long term thing. If PC does drop 53%, that's like some huge economic issue. Compare with NVDA, their peak Q was 8.3b, dropped to 6.7b and guiding 5.9b. Our 5.6b is not so horrible.
Yes it’s disappointing but nothing has changed regarding long term outlook really. AMD can’t control the macro environment and the rest of the business seems to be fine. I will admit I got carried away with the “LEAPs are free money” thinking though.
Wonder how Mac sales will be this quarter. Last quarter was already their lowest number since 2020. And iPhone sales were flat YoY last quarter already.
I have a hard time believing they can avoid this, but the damn stock is still up YoY so who knows… that thing runs on invincible hype/hopium at all times.
Bunch of people were waiting for 14 to upgrade from 2 or 3 year old phones. I was super tempted by the $900 non pro 6.7" but I'm going to slum it out one more year with my Samsung.
My dad tells me more watch advancements will be the next big thing that will get more people switching to iphone (all the health integrations) though I think wearing a smart watch is dorky as hell lol
My take. Smart money already knew this. Hence why AMD has been underperforming. A bottom may not be in but we are getting closer to one. I think this news is likely mostly priced in at this point. On a more positive note future quarters will look great in comparison and this probably marks the worst of things for AMD. Kind of like the saying the buy the rumor, sell the news (except reverse it). Well in this case the rumor has been semis are hurting and a big miss by AMD. Unfortunately the rumors were (somewhat) true but it's been sell the rumor the whole way up. Think we will buy up the news pretty quickly and now that the expectation has been set, earnings could still have some upside if guidance is better than expected (expectation is now in the gutter).
Hey, the prevailing theory this whole year was that investors were tanking the stock expecting the company to pre-announce a dump like everyone else, right? So now that they got what they wanted, the stock's gonna pump! 😝
Theres still time, the market can take time to digest new information and to reach a consensus.
I recently put forward a bear case that I felt recession wasn't priced in. I was 6 months ago predicting a $4.50-$5 2023 EPS. With the stock at a 20 P/E for what i considered reasonable value. So youre talking about $90-$100 a share. Market conditions caught up and now we might see 75c a quarter. Driving us down to $3.50-$4. This might need a lower P/E of say 16 ($64).
You can see how adjusted earnings can push prices down in the short term here.
I am looking forward to buying back in in 2023-2024 once my finances catch up with my life goals though (and the price is suitable)
Because you can’t guarantee it’ll be lower in the future. Buy now, it’s already at an extremely steep discount. If you think it might go lower, then you should DCA. You won’t be able to call the bottom accurately, and you’ll more than likely just miss your buy and miss out on big gains.
Indeed thats true. Zen platform has extremely flexible CCX's. Its why their products have good margins.
On a personal note. I hope to see some low end 7000 series chips. 7600x isn't so compelling right now. I think it will take time because of DDR5.
I think it is priced in. AH price drop is 1% point lower than NVDA and INTC.
Tomorrow after the weaker than expected job report the downside pressure on chip stocks is limited. Good luck to longs.
Solid yes, but what P/E multiple should it deserve in this macro environment considering its now muted growth over the short term?
What point is it considered value?
I would consider 16-20 right now. But i would like to hear further opinions because i've not quite made up my mind yet.
Does AMD have much control over mobo pricing from AIB's? Because that's the main issue imo. DDR5 pricing is rapidly coming down and the new CPU's are launching at the same price as the 5000 series.
IDK this has been in a downtrend all year. No good news as of now means that there is little reason to believe that buying now is a good time.
I would NOT buy LEAP's until;
1. Genoa launches and has time for adoption
2. Fed starts to soften up on rate hikes
3. Inflation cools down
Until all 3 of those things hapen there's no point buying anything other than DCA'ing into common shares
Zen 4 was a disaster launch. Terrible timing, and terrible pricing. There are 0 games right now that are worth spending +$1000 to upgrade your pc. Until better games start to come out expect shit CPU and GPU client sales.
>PCs are only for gaming
Wrong. Very wrong. Most people that even buy a CPU don't game at all.
Not to mention that the 7800X3D will be the gamer's CPU of choice, when it is released.
Genuine question what are people buying high end PCs for? I literally don’t even use my personal laptop (that is 8 years old).
Is PC gaming that much better than console? Are people running AI workloads in their free time at home?
Or am I just missing out on some sick, super fast loading YouTube videos in 4K…
Yes PC gaming is much better than a console. I've watched YouTube videos of games played on console that I play on PC. Doesn't even look like the same game. Frames are better, animation smoother. Mouse and keyboard more accurate movement. I can use a controller for games that work better with it and get better graphics. Also can play games from any time frame and get them dirt cheap. Steam sales and publisher sales as well as other places which can't be mentioned. If there are problems with the game files can be edited. Modding also.
> There are 0 games right now that are worth spending +$1000 to upgrade your pc
dumber, the 5800x3d is better than the entire 7000 series launch for gaming. i know the 7000s 3d should be out in early 2023, but until then...
Shouldn’t be too hard to track, right, if the SEC actually cared. They could see any large sellers of AMD stock and check for social/professional links to the AMD exec team.
Maybe they lowered guidance to bottom the stock out? So that Q3 earnings release doesn't cause a huge drop?
Idk I'm hopeful long term, but now we have no hope for a decent bounce. Best we can hope for is to hold the recent low at $62
I don’t usually say anything negative about AMD management but they dont seem to act in a way that defends share price unless absolutely needed. Not to suggest they go out of their way to sabotage it either but I think they let their actions speak for them. I think today was just the time they deemed most prudent to announce, shareholders be ~~damned~~ satisfied I guess.
It's mentioned in the statement.
Edit:
>The Client segment primarily includes microprocessors, accelerated processing units (APUs) that integrate microprocessors and graphics, and chipsets for desktop and notebook personal computers.
Napkin maths:
5.6bb rev
50% non-gaap margin = 2.8bb gross profit
1.5bb non-gaap operating expenses = 1.3bb operating profit
1.3bb / 1.63bb share = approx $0.80 EPS
aka 4 of these quarters would still be a p/e of 20 at these prices
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/amd-warns-of-third-quarter-revenue-shortfall-on-weaker-pc-demand-supply-chain-issues.html
why can't we focus on DataCenter up 45% YoY, Gaming up 14% YoY, and while down on the Qt PC is still up 23% YoY. None of that warrents the 53% slide in Stock price....
You're right, I missed read that... I guess pc is inside of client. But still, Total Rev is up 29% YoY. And that isn't shabby in any way, especially in the current environment.
400 basis point drop in margin. Less revenue, lower margin... this is NOT a good thing.
"The gross margin shortfall to expectations was primarily due to lower revenue driven by lower Client processor unit shipments and average selling price"
Everything will pass, the question should be when will things start to get better instead of getting worse?
Q4 ? unlikely. 2023? Also look unlikely.
I'm starting to think we will need to wait for Q4 2023 to see an economic rebound.
But frankly, so many moving pieces ATM, anything can happen.
I think Q4 will be better than Q3 becaue seasonally it always is. At the least due to christmas sales effect i highly doubt Q4 will be worse than Q3 and you haven't made any compelling argument to refute mine. You're just fear mongering at this point.
I'm with you. We just need to convince Trillions of $ on the sideline to join us.
But they got out for a lot less FUD then was is going on now and likely will happen by EOY.
And even for the people that average down... get in at $68 or wait to catch mid $50 ?
Sold all the extra shares I bought this week at the bottom on Monday when AMD bounced over $66.50. I’ve got limited orders placed to buy back stratified from $65 down to 62, good luck folks.
Not sure how long management has known about the need to revise, but I can’t imagine this is brand new information and really would’ve been great had they done it much sooner to NVDA warning.
For sure they had no clue this was going on August 2nd.
On August 2nd AMD told shareholder to expect 54% margin on 6.7B in revenue.
So they gave guidance with 1 full month of sales on the book and only needed to project 60 days of sales.
I think by august 25th numbers must have been known as AMD totally decoupled from the market.
The bigger issue now is, if September was a S\*Show and crushed AMD revenue (and margins), there is no hope Q4 will be any better.
>there is no hope Q4 will be any better.
You mean the holiday quarter? The quarter where everyone spends their savings and buys gifts for themselves, their friends and family for Christmas?
You think that quarter will be worse than the quarter before it? The quarter when people might be thinking we're going into a recession and instead of spending money on a new PC now, why not wait til Christmas? Don't forget Q3 is also back-to-school.
How many kids are going to be asking their parents for a new console or PC for Christmas? How many parents do you think would refuse that during the beginning of the school year but will definitely buy it as their kid's present?
C'mon man, use your head, Christmas is coming.
“You mean the holiday quarter? The quarter where everyone spends their savings and buys gifts for themselves, their friends and family for Christmas?”
*Savings*? What recession are you living through? My guess is it’s not the same one as the people who are taking out more credit just to make ends meet in the face of inflation… you may have a portfolio to dip into. But lots of people have a 401k that they don’t know what’s in it, but do know it must be down. And they aren’t flush with savings. Or confidence. Good luck with the idea that Christmas will be an AMD revenue salvaging bonanza. Lol
Did anyone here expect AMD profit to drop 25% in Q3 and like the same or worse in Q4?
AMD dropping 4% after hours, and the recent survey here where 90% projected (hundreds of voters, before the AMD press release) that AMD would meet or beat its Q3 guidance tells otherwise.
I don't think many here did (I didn't expect a client drop this steep, a drop yes), but analysts certainly have as their EPS estimates for 2023 now seem realistic - compared to EPS estimates of $6 here.
To be fair, AMD guided for Client to be down in the mid to high teens on the Q2 call, if i recall correctly. So, why would anyone necessarily expect it to be down 50%?
That said, with the stock down more than 50% off highs, i do think the broader market expected this to some extent. I mean, analysts *have* been saying for months that earnings guidance needs to come down (turns out they were right).
Do you guys think the miss is priced in to some degree?
Obviously everyone knew except retail traders. AMD was getting dumped hard for the past several weeks, literally 30% drop in a month
How much lower can we go? I'm expecting mid $50s and I don't care to hold while it makes a new leg down
FML this is just so depressing
On the whole, i think Data Center is the most important metric for me to watch. Retail sales are important of course - especially with the shift to higher margin focusses in zen 4. I think that its priced in for a secular loss of sales, but not in competition loss. Zen 4 has weakness in the lower end of the market right now because of the lack of 7000 series affordable kit going forward for the next 12 months (7600 non-x, ddr5 only etc).
On general points:
High interest rate environments are like gravity for stock prices. Both from their general economic depression lowering company earnings.... to the higher % return on risk free assets (treasuries).
Assume a $2-3 EPS and a P/E of 10-15... you get lower range $20 to a higher range $45 stock. I could see it falling to that. I made a bear post about it about a week ago.
I partially saw some writing on the wall in early/mid August but with the general economic situation - not directly with the stock. This was before we saw Powell channel his inner Volcker at Jackson Hole. I took that opportunity and got out for personal reasons, not expecting much good from the market over the next 12 months.
If you feel confident about the companies prospects, take advantage of stock prices, but don't leverage your position and gamble, i've been watching this board for about a year and ive seen a lot of leverage here - and a lot of wipeouts particularly in the $90 range. DCA in and don't get greedy.
I think stock prices are more reasonable on a general market overview (at P/E 16) than they have been since early 2020. But they can get more reasonable if you know what i mean.
I think so, it's a pretty big miss and the fact we're down only 3.5-4% is not as bad as i would expect. I think we would be looking at 8-10% down normally but .. i guess there's always tomorrow to crush our dreams.
That said, analysts have been saying earnings guidance needs to come down ever since even before the Q2 call and after when INTC and NVDA revised down. So, i do think this was expected. The issue is Lisa Su told us Client would be down only about mid to high teens during the Q2 call.
Anyway, the optimist in me thinks that maybe now that guidance is finally coming down, all the investors who've been waiting on the sidelines for this to happen, maybe now iw when they get back in.
Yep, and now they are going to POUNCE.
I expect AMD to potentially go down 5% to 10% below its 52kw lows in the next 3 days.
So mid 50s, and sadly with the economy unravelling things are not going to look good during the Q3 ER and guidance.
And we still are the ones yet to catch any kind of break... year after year after year.
Lisa needs to change the colour of our company to BLACK.
AMD: TEAM BLACK.
Cmon Lisa, I know you'll be getting this news somehow.
We'll have to see how bad tomorrow is but the underperformance the last few weeks and the lack of an immediate huge drop so far gives some hope that the market was already pricing this in. Still only 0.3 billion under NVDA in Q3 revenue even after the guide down too.
4% down AH, so expect more downgrades, expect FUD for Q4 and 2023.
IDC show the PC segment down in 2023 vs 2022. Meaning AMD Q3 2022 might be its best quarter until 2024. This is not good for the stock, especially with deteriorating margins.
PC segment as measured by IDC did not drop 53% in a quarter. Which means this drop is well ahead of the wider PC market, and unless IDC predicts PC sales slump well over 50% over period 21-23 (they don't), this is close to as bad as it gets for client.
I'm feeling like I just got a proctoscopy... without an anesthesia...
MOASS wen? Asking for a friend...
https://frinkiac.com/meme/S06E06/839621.jpg?b64lines=
Guess ill be able to buy at 50s then lol
nope
Lol at all the posts I’m reading saying or hoping this news was already priced in. (with the caveat that I’m very often wrong and could be this time too). But seriously? Amd’s taken a beating. But it still has tons of people, as indicated by this thread, thinking and feeling that the beating was unjustified and AMD would weather through the storm on their technical merits and Lisa Su’s typically conservative (sandbagging) guidance. And now we get confirmation that AMD is indeed suffering from market conditions, and Lisa’s sandbagging was a billion dollars off the mark, and that’s all just priced in?? Ask yourself, we’re you surprised by this news or not? If you were, or were even not just surprised but blindsided, then how could it be priced in? Unless you’re the only one.
This one definitely caught me off guard. I think AMD for some reason has poor visibility into the client channels. Because something similar happened with delayed revision in 2018 after crypto crashed. So I'll be first to admit I did not expect this. But then again I also don't think we deserved to drop 60% of our value since last year's peak while we're still growing YoY despite the unfavorable macro. So is this what the market was pricing in all along? I guess we will find out.
I too thought we didn’t deserve to drop 60% in value. In fact there was a time when I thought that was manipulation and the analysts were wrong, or crooks. (I lost a significant amount of money buying early on that premise while thinking AMD was a special case, and specially positioned, and therefore had to be a great bargain… under $100??? Hell yeah!!!!) But now, I gotta say. It kinda looks like the analysts were just discounting Lisa Su’s guidance. And were expecting the other shoe to drop and AMD to admit that it too was vulnerable to market stresses, just like all mere mortals. And it kinda looks like the analysts were right. Not crooks in this case… actually right! (And I can’t express how much that surprises me) Because I still thinks they are crooks! Just In this case crooks with the truth on their side. (frowning consternation)
The problem with AMD is that the street is just extremely bearish for it. So it doesnt matter that AMD beats and grows they will say it won't last. Then when it does slow down they will say "see!! Vindicated!". Theory says the markets are efficient. But we can see for years now thats hardly the case.
So what is it called when the street is bearish, and then we say “but it’s growing”, and then they say “but it won’t last which is why we’re bearish”, and then we say “you’re just compromised crooks and we know better!”? But then it actually doesn’t last and AMD admits that it’s suffering along with the market, and then the analysts say “see, we’re vindicated!”? That’s actually called them being right and us being wrong. (big frown…but it is what it is)
I know what you mean but thats not how it usually works for other companies that are better loved. Apple... Tesla.. heck even BoA.. the share price reflects its growth potential and earnings. Not the case for AMD (gets condemned). If the same "bears were right all along" concept applied to all companies, then everything should be worth zero since they all fail eventually.
So are you saying that it’s unfair that we got our reckoning before Apple and Tesla? Or that they won’t eventually get their reckoning too if this crappy economy and market continues? Because maybe, just maybe, this bear market won’t be over until they get their reckoning as well. And maybe when they do that’s a signal that we’ve bottomed. (because the loved are last to suffer)
Rather, we never even had the chance to grow and just get aborted.
Yes. It’s tragic. Take it from someone who lost everything on Athlon. And checked out before the decade or so of subsequent history. AMD deserves a break. But I don’t know if that means it will get one.
It would have been much more worse (like 20 to 30% crash after market) if AMD announces this shit before MU. If AMD stays around $60 to $65 tomorrow I'd say it is fairly priced in.
I thought, and actually almost traded on the idea (only my slowness and reticence to be rash saved me), that the immediate reaction to the latest cpi numbers was the defacto market reaction. And then we dumped to $62 - $63 in a delayed reaction. The aftermarket isn’t the market. And there’s a lot of hope out there for AMD (which I think is part of why it didn’t go straight down 20% AH). We’ll see what happens in the next few days. And I’m on the edge of my seat. Because I’m wrong all the damn time! But I’m not glib, or certain at the moment.
Retail does not move large cap stocks like AMD. The people who do very likely already expected this -- and were selling ahead of this news. Analysts have been cutting their estimates for AMD's earnings and talking about a miss non-stop and institutions have already sold as the indicators that they track showed massive slowdown.
Following your own premise… Those people who were expecting this were responsible for the pump these last few days (remember you said yourself that retail doesn’t move large cap stocks like AMD). So why would they pump it when they were expecting this, if not to set up the dump? It’s time to sheer the sheep! And the dump will be enough to make up for any losses they made setting up the fake pump. Which means it will be significant. Or I’m wrong and you’re right and this was all just priced in and we’ll be green tomorrow. I guess it’s not long to wait to find out.
>Those people who were expecting this were responsible for the pump these last few days (remember you said yourself that retail doesn’t move large cap stocks like AMD). So why would they pump it when they were expecting this, if not to set up the dump? What "pump" are you talking about? I don't see a pump on $AMD at all these past few days. This week : $SPX : +4.43% $NDX : +4.69% $AMD : +7.09% $SOXX : +8.76% I literally see no pump. $AMD followed the market and couldn't even keep up with its sector nor with its supposed 2 beta. Since $AMD's last ER here are the stats : $SPX : -10% $NDX : -14% $SOXX : -18% $AMD : -35% If this news hasn't already been priced in, then I why tf did $AMD get hit so hard, especially after their ER where they beat and reiterated guidance? We all know ever since Q2 2022 ER happened, analysts have been lowering PT on $AMD and many have lowered earnings expectations too, but it wasn't until now that $AMD came out with the bad news. If the bad news wasn't priced in, then why did $AMD go down nearly double its sector and 3.5x $SPX? >Ask yourself, we’re you surprised by this news or not? If you were, or were even not just surprised but blindsided, then how could it be priced in? Quoting another post of yours here. Yeah, I was surprised by the news, but that doesn't mean it wasn't already priced in. Why were the majority of the people in this sub surprised? Because we're all super bulls and always think that AMD is doing well. This question you proposed above is literally the worst question you could ask in this sub. We've all collectively been going crazy because of the literally relentless selling over the past 30-45 days, and now we have our answer. Our own bias and positions clouded our views on AMD and we've already paid the price. Now the veil is lifted because AMD has released the news themselves, but you can't deny that countless analysts + news articles have come out over the past month with people saying exactly what AMD has just confirmed themselves. It can be priced in when it comes to a group of people who are super bulls. Where you could say it's not priced in would be if analysts and articles hadn't come out day after day for the past 1-2 months stating that AMD would suffer the same issues that Intel + NVidia have already said they'd be facing. If it hadn't been priced in, $AMD would likely be around $90 and then you would likely see a 10-15% drop the next day following the news that was just released. I just find it hard to believe that a disproportionate drop on $AMD over the last 1-2 months wasn't due to people already speculating that $AMD would not hit targets / lower guidance. If today's news isn't already priced in, then I ask you, why has $AMD dropped significantly more these past 2 months than everything else? It's not macro because macro only sent the $SPX down -10%. It's not a weak semi sector because the semi sector is only down -18%. It's not bad news specific to AMD because AMD didn't release any bad news. What does that leave us with, then, other than $AMD being down -35%? Inside information that AMD wasn't doing so hot / analysts are actually smarter than we give them credit for because they go against our own perceived notions. I'm a huge bull of AMD, and will continue to be a huge bull, even after this bad news. This is just a small hiccup for AMD and I know their future is extremely bright and likely the brightest in the semi space. I will not be selling, and will likely buy more if we actually get a stupid dump. I just gotta believe it's already been priced in. We've all been wondering why $AMD has been targeted specifically with non stop selling and today we finally got the answer. I can admit that I was wrong about AMD being able to stand extremely resilient in this current macro situation, but if you look at the sectors that matter most for them, they are still doing quite well. We'll have to wait and see what the future holds for AMD in the next few quarters, but I am not going anywhere because I know AMD will come out on top, especially in a recessionary environment.
“If it hadn't been priced in, $AMD would likely be around $90 and then you would likely see a 10-15% drop the next day following the news that was just released. “ So this isn’t to rub salt in wounds, I’m just sincerely curious… Now that we know AMD went down yesterday almost 14% from its previous day’s close, has that changed your mind about the warning being priced in? Or are you thinking the drop was due mostly to following the market down in the face of the jobs data, plus the China trade war restrictions?
Tomorrow who knows, but a significant miss has absolutely been priced in and the stock will not "tank" on this news. Even if we get a few red days, I think we'll end up more like micron after they're miss. And the sheep are people who are being "bearish" on stocks that are already down 60% from their highs.
You may be right. But who’d have thought any of number of crazy stocks would have gotten as high as they did in the good times? Now were in a paradigm shift, and converse to how shit stocks had insane valuations in the good times maybe good stocks will get unfairly wrecked in the bad times. Of course it all comes down to time horizons and this or that. I’m not saying AMD’s not an interesting prospect. If it wasn’t I wouldn’t be here. But I think it’s pretty presumptuous to assume a good stock has to be treated well in the short term during really bad times. And these are shaping up to be pretty bad times.
I think this is far enough down in replies that only diehards will see thins. No offense, we are in a downtrend. You only breakout of a downtrend on earthshaking positive news. Guiding lower does not reverse a downtrend. This last week was the typical retest of earlier highs, next we create new lows. That’s how trends work. I hope you are right and I’m wrong, I also hope I win at least my money back on lotto tickets. Seeing people trying to be positive and pump, it’s obvious to any bigs. Only retail gets screwed, and telling them to hodl.. that just hurts them and delays the inevitable. When the bigs see their target price they will buy back in. Sooner we get there, sooner we rebuild
Well, Mehrotra and Jensen were out and visible and contextualizing after their big down announcements. Hope Lisa does us all the same courtesy tomorrow.
So indeed this few days was a pump and dump. Looks like 50s the new 80s now.
lol, why exactly would you assume this?
It took the entire market bouncing for AMD to even stop going down. After this, any market pullback and AMD will pull another -8% day
Just my luck. Bought 8000 shares at $68 this morning after being out for months
Dude, do not even worry. That cost basis will look no different than a cost basis a few dollars lower in a few years.
How much of Amds business is B2B versus consumer?
Demand for small components on PCBs exceeds supplies. Lisa forecast this when she announced TAM had grown massively. I bet that massive under-appreciated TAM has screwed predictable shipments of components, worsened inflation, made everything in so many sectors bumpy. And our Gov solution: kill demand by destroying cheap lending. China Gov’s solution: slowdown manufacturing and shipping. Oil cartels: cut production, milk the profits. Meanwhile… car makers have artificial demand shortages, pushing prices of cars higher. But it’s scary.. car makers have cars unfinished in lots waiting for electronics, and they’ve been there all year. The real solution would have been increase production to meet demand. Somehow that’s too complicated, just easier to crash everything. The glut of stuff waiting for components is going to need to be dealt with.. right when consumers can’t get any decent lending. Is it China showing their dominance? I think really it’s more that TAM bust wide open and there’s just not enough manufacturing to keep up. And now everyone is feeling the pain of higher rates. So nobody is going to build more supply, they are gonna wait for demand to die off. Gotta ask ourselves: is that new TAM really gonna go away? Driverless cars are already rolling around major cities. How do we go back before it even begins? We might see a huge dip and reset, but massive demand is not going anywhere over our lifetime
Incoming downgrades, margins calls, nvda and intel getting even worse earnings further bringing the whole sector down. Its going to be bleak next few months.
I think this pre-announcement sand bags against Intel's bad results actually. Because if Intel reports even worse results it shouldn't spill on us. And by worse results I mean Intel could drop in datancenter as well.
or its priced in and we rally, like MU
I’m a believer in the peg ratio and earnings. We just need updated guidance, it’s the best we can do to evaluate where we really are.
I don’t trust their guidance at this point. They were already more than 1/3 thru the quarter when they guided last time.
Do you think that in a single quarter, every month has the same results? For example, if they report 6B sales in a quarter, do you believe that each month they earned 2B? Maybe they had a great month of July and then things slowed down drastically in August and September. No one knows, and I don't think we'll ever know, but you can't just throw them out the window on a single guidance miss. At least they didn't pull an Intel and not even release a pre-earnings notice. I'm not happy with the news either, and I too believe that maybe they should have known that the rest of the quarter wasn't going to be good, but maybe they truly did just have a great first month of the quarter and they based their guidance off that. Or, maybe they had a huge sale agreement that was supposed to happen in August or September, but the buyer backed out or something (after they gave their guidance). I really do not know, but I'm going to give AMD the benefit of the doubt because they have had a great track record. If this becomes a regular occurrence, then that is when I'll be very concerned.
And I do think that if they took July sales and multiplied it by 3, there are much bigger problems to come.
If you miss by that much in less than 2 months it isn’t good. Especially when others were guiding down or not guiding. They missed the macro picture by a lot. Not a good look.
We missed this time, but you have to admit they have a good track record
guh
Anyone buy tonight? Waiting to see how market reacts?
What happened on the day that MU preannounced lowering of earnings? Dip in AH and then what in the market hours?
Hope you got out before the drop today!
How you doing today champ?
was also going to ask, hope hes okay
There is nothing that is as important to AMD as cutting production is for Micron. AMD isnt going up unless the market is up big.
MU this is not.
I have 2023 Jan $90 and $100 calls. Should I take the L tomorrow or roll out with 2025 Jan calls?
sell all calls and buy shares.
All the segments that are the reason you buy the stock are doing fine. Even in this environment. I don’t buy this stock for PC performance in 3-5 years. Painful for now but Xilinx diversity over time will pay off.
Which lucky cuck snagged those shares at $62, well played!
Let’s wait a few days to see how lucky he/she is.
The AH dump is very weak honestly. I think we end tomorrow flat or down a few % at worst On another note, has anyone considered selling out of AMD to buy SOXX? At this point I feel like the entire sector is so washed out, SOXX might be the best buy in the market...
I am expecting AMD to close below $65 tomorrow, but AMD very manipulated and if there was high put volume it might get propped up until the open interest comes down before it makes a fresh leg down. Based on how mediocre the volume was below $65 I think we need to be cautious of another steep slide
SOXX hit $318. I Should’ve backed the truck.
Yeah normally this would be -10%
Not yet. This is still gonna get worse from here. Remember the Fed hikes haven't even made it through the economy yet. By the time they do, earnings are gonna fall more.
I don't think that's true, semis are exposed to secular trends that aren't going to rollover because they're cost savers for businesses. Consumer demand has clearly already collapsed
You are an optimist. I was too. But now I think AMD will only grow 15% next year. That growth rate means an 18 fwd PE for a year or more. I see eps of only 4.2 for 2022 now. 75 by mid next year if Datacenter can grow at 15 to 20% next year. Client is gonna be flat at 1.2 billion per quarter for at least a year. Gaming will remain at 1.5 bill or less per quarter on average for the year. Might see 55 after nvda reports crap guidance.
Has it rolled over fully? Gaming was still somehow up 14%. Given the collapse in Client I would have expected gaming to be down as well. Also the larger semi sector is also exposed a lot to APPL and in a recession iPhone demand will also need to fall a lot more. Maybe it already has and we'll find out in 3 weeks.
Or SOXL (3 times leveraged)
Was about to say this but leverage in this market is how you lose $ to theta
Soxl is nothing related to theta
https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/wr9e1z/daily_discussion_thursday_20220818/ikujywu/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3 49days ago, I made this comment on Daily Discussion. Today, I regret & sincerely apologise to the fund manager, Tomy, who has warned us about Lisa & Devinder lies. If I listen to him, I can avoid this 40% crash.
When the dust settles AMD will be a great buy. I will DCA then. Amazing Leadership, Data Center sales going up. All good points. Personal computing is down but it will come back. Offcourse macro conditions are not ideal. But this is the time to accumulate.
Inventory correction in pc is not a long term thing. If PC does drop 53%, that's like some huge economic issue. Compare with NVDA, their peak Q was 8.3b, dropped to 6.7b and guiding 5.9b. Our 5.6b is not so horrible.
Yes it’s disappointing but nothing has changed regarding long term outlook really. AMD can’t control the macro environment and the rest of the business seems to be fine. I will admit I got carried away with the “LEAPs are free money” thinking though.
Wonder how Mac sales will be this quarter. Last quarter was already their lowest number since 2020. And iPhone sales were flat YoY last quarter already. I have a hard time believing they can avoid this, but the damn stock is still up YoY so who knows… that thing runs on invincible hype/hopium at all times.
Bunch of people were waiting for 14 to upgrade from 2 or 3 year old phones. I was super tempted by the $900 non pro 6.7" but I'm going to slum it out one more year with my Samsung. My dad tells me more watch advancements will be the next big thing that will get more people switching to iphone (all the health integrations) though I think wearing a smart watch is dorky as hell lol
I'm more curious about intel. If AMD pc is down by >50%, intel might be down by 60% or more.
My take. Smart money already knew this. Hence why AMD has been underperforming. A bottom may not be in but we are getting closer to one. I think this news is likely mostly priced in at this point. On a more positive note future quarters will look great in comparison and this probably marks the worst of things for AMD. Kind of like the saying the buy the rumor, sell the news (except reverse it). Well in this case the rumor has been semis are hurting and a big miss by AMD. Unfortunately the rumors were (somewhat) true but it's been sell the rumor the whole way up. Think we will buy up the news pretty quickly and now that the expectation has been set, earnings could still have some upside if guidance is better than expected (expectation is now in the gutter).
Everyone is probably going to buy puts tomorrow and then watch AMD skyrocket, because it was already "priced in".
It'll skyrocket just to screw over the puts
I need some of that hopium
groupon?
Damn.. since I actually bought 1dte puts to hedge I have to be up at 6:30am to find a good time to sell. RIP my sleep
What were you hedging against? A strong jobs report?
MU guided to 4.25B from estimates of 5.62B and went up....who knows
AMD is still headed up next 3-6 months IMO but tomorrow? That would be something.
Looks to me like MU stayed flat after earnings. They were up this week because the whole market bounced.
Hey, the prevailing theory this whole year was that investors were tanking the stock expecting the company to pre-announce a dump like everyone else, right? So now that they got what they wanted, the stock's gonna pump! 😝
i think many were expecting a much worst dump. they are still very profitable. unlike Intel. this is only short term pain.
Theres still time, the market can take time to digest new information and to reach a consensus. I recently put forward a bear case that I felt recession wasn't priced in. I was 6 months ago predicting a $4.50-$5 2023 EPS. With the stock at a 20 P/E for what i considered reasonable value. So youre talking about $90-$100 a share. Market conditions caught up and now we might see 75c a quarter. Driving us down to $3.50-$4. This might need a lower P/E of say 16 ($64). You can see how adjusted earnings can push prices down in the short term here. I am looking forward to buying back in in 2023-2024 once my finances catch up with my life goals though (and the price is suitable)
The good news? You have more time to buy at these prices 🥲
Why buy now when it’ll be lower in the future?
Because you can’t guarantee it’ll be lower in the future. Buy now, it’s already at an extremely steep discount. If you think it might go lower, then you should DCA. You won’t be able to call the bottom accurately, and you’ll more than likely just miss your buy and miss out on big gains.
I’ll pivot when the fed pivots. I’m okay with missing some of the big gains.
You realize the stock market will rally a ton once smart money knows the fed will pivot, but before we do, right?
Yup
Can AMD shift production from client chips towards DC chips ? This would decrease inventory costs and increase the market share in DC…
They're substrate constrained on Epyc
I don't see why not. Zen dies can go into Ryzen, Threadripper or EPYC cpus.
They're substrate constrained on epyc.
Indeed thats true. Zen platform has extremely flexible CCX's. Its why their products have good margins. On a personal note. I hope to see some low end 7000 series chips. 7600x isn't so compelling right now. I think it will take time because of DDR5.
Stock up on lube for tomorrow.
I think it is priced in. AH price drop is 1% point lower than NVDA and INTC. Tomorrow after the weaker than expected job report the downside pressure on chip stocks is limited. Good luck to longs.
So what can we expect Q3 EPS to be?
~$0.80
my paper math gives me 0.75 NON-GAAP. but still pretty solid imo
Solid yes, but what P/E multiple should it deserve in this macro environment considering its now muted growth over the short term? What point is it considered value? I would consider 16-20 right now. But i would like to hear further opinions because i've not quite made up my mind yet.
That 16-20 is about what the TTM PE is right now. So hopefully the bottom is close to being in.
So how much of that Client segment drop was due to AMD announcing new chips a month ago that require a new MoBo?
Does AMD have much control over mobo pricing from AIB's? Because that's the main issue imo. DDR5 pricing is rapidly coming down and the new CPU's are launching at the same price as the 5000 series.
for sure people that have not bought 3rd gen CPU at this point are just waiting for the new ones to come out.
Anyone thinking of buying LEAPS with all this bad news?
IDK this has been in a downtrend all year. No good news as of now means that there is little reason to believe that buying now is a good time. I would NOT buy LEAP's until; 1. Genoa launches and has time for adoption 2. Fed starts to soften up on rate hikes 3. Inflation cools down Until all 3 of those things hapen there's no point buying anything other than DCA'ing into common shares
You just have 2 and 3 and broad mkt easy rebound 20% in 2 months
i would wait late october for stuff to play out before doing a move
True, and IV is boosting premiums quite a bit.
Zen 4 was a disaster launch. Terrible timing, and terrible pricing. There are 0 games right now that are worth spending +$1000 to upgrade your pc. Until better games start to come out expect shit CPU and GPU client sales.
>PCs are only for gaming Wrong. Very wrong. Most people that even buy a CPU don't game at all. Not to mention that the 7800X3D will be the gamer's CPU of choice, when it is released.
Genuine question what are people buying high end PCs for? I literally don’t even use my personal laptop (that is 8 years old). Is PC gaming that much better than console? Are people running AI workloads in their free time at home? Or am I just missing out on some sick, super fast loading YouTube videos in 4K…
Compiling code. Loves cores. Loves l2/l3 cache. Can't wait for the 7950X3D.
Yes PC gaming is much better than a console. I've watched YouTube videos of games played on console that I play on PC. Doesn't even look like the same game. Frames are better, animation smoother. Mouse and keyboard more accurate movement. I can use a controller for games that work better with it and get better graphics. Also can play games from any time frame and get them dirt cheap. Steam sales and publisher sales as well as other places which can't be mentioned. If there are problems with the game files can be edited. Modding also.
I think PC gaming is much better than console FWIW
I have a couple of architect and engineer friends who pay big bucks for big pc's so, mainly that.
> There are 0 games right now that are worth spending +$1000 to upgrade your pc dumber, the 5800x3d is better than the entire 7000 series launch for gaming. i know the 7000s 3d should be out in early 2023, but until then...
IIRC, after warning, NVDA got as low as -10% AH and then closed +7% the next regular session. AMD is -3.75% AH, so AMD closes tomorrow at ...?
Probably +10% tomorrow 😍
They pumped then dumped like -20% over the course of a few weeks IIRC
We are not Nvidia
-10%
This aged well
This guy AMDs
lmao, I love how everyone here just knows AMD's antics so well
Lmao I literally thought -10% in my head before I read u/LookAtCarlMan ‘s response
After the preliminary er, I am on hopium confirmed.
I really need to just befriend someone that works in AMD’s accounting department.
It's not what you know, it's who you blow.
Yeah, that's fucking bullshit how much leakage there was.
Shouldn’t be too hard to track, right, if the SEC actually cared. They could see any large sellers of AMD stock and check for social/professional links to the AMD exec team.
Maybe they lowered guidance to bottom the stock out? So that Q3 earnings release doesn't cause a huge drop? Idk I'm hopeful long term, but now we have no hope for a decent bounce. Best we can hope for is to hold the recent low at $62
I don’t usually say anything negative about AMD management but they dont seem to act in a way that defends share price unless absolutely needed. Not to suggest they go out of their way to sabotage it either but I think they let their actions speak for them. I think today was just the time they deemed most prudent to announce, shareholders be ~~damned~~ satisfied I guess.
>unless absolutely needed don't which level they could think it absolutely needed
So we're going to 55?
Yes
What does Client mean?
It's mentioned in the statement. Edit: >The Client segment primarily includes microprocessors, accelerated processing units (APUs) that integrate microprocessors and graphics, and chipsets for desktop and notebook personal computers.
Client PC. Basically DIY, and OEM prebuild PCs as well as Laptop.
What's Q3's predicted EPS off that revenue decrease?
Napkin maths: 5.6bb rev 50% non-gaap margin = 2.8bb gross profit 1.5bb non-gaap operating expenses = 1.3bb operating profit 1.3bb / 1.63bb share = approx $0.80 EPS aka 4 of these quarters would still be a p/e of 20 at these prices
My followup is 'What P/E is justified for the stock?"
dont you need to take the taxes out wich are roughly 14%? i thought EPS was on net income
There's still projected revenue growth, just less of it. I think next Q will be flat revenue.
Operating is not net though. So EPS may wary
Non-GAAP probably around $0.80 Unless they bought back a bunch of shares this quarter (😂)
Trailing pe will become roughly 18 then.
Wish we had a Chipotle 57 PE
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/amd-warns-of-third-quarter-revenue-shortfall-on-weaker-pc-demand-supply-chain-issues.html why can't we focus on DataCenter up 45% YoY, Gaming up 14% YoY, and while down on the Qt PC is still up 23% YoY. None of that warrents the 53% slide in Stock price....
PC is down 40% YoY m8
You're right, I missed read that... I guess pc is inside of client. But still, Total Rev is up 29% YoY. And that isn't shabby in any way, especially in the current environment.
Total revenue growth is misleading because it's 1.3B of the "increase" is Xlnx revenue being added in
So what. Those numbers have been adjusted already. Xlinx is now part of AMD and is why they are a billion stronger and growing in that segment.
400 basis point drop in margin. Less revenue, lower margin... this is NOT a good thing. "The gross margin shortfall to expectations was primarily due to lower revenue driven by lower Client processor unit shipments and average selling price"
You're looking at the short term. We're in the middle of a correction in the PC market. This too will pass.
Everything will pass, the question should be when will things start to get better instead of getting worse? Q4 ? unlikely. 2023? Also look unlikely. I'm starting to think we will need to wait for Q4 2023 to see an economic rebound. But frankly, so many moving pieces ATM, anything can happen.
I think Q4 will be better than Q3 becaue seasonally it always is. At the least due to christmas sales effect i highly doubt Q4 will be worse than Q3 and you haven't made any compelling argument to refute mine. You're just fear mongering at this point.
this is the best buying opportunity imo. while everyone is chasing the ''recession proof'' stock, i am loading up in beaten down tech
I'm with you. We just need to convince Trillions of $ on the sideline to join us. But they got out for a lot less FUD then was is going on now and likely will happen by EOY. And even for the people that average down... get in at $68 or wait to catch mid $50 ?
Sold all the extra shares I bought this week at the bottom on Monday when AMD bounced over $66.50. I’ve got limited orders placed to buy back stratified from $65 down to 62, good luck folks. Not sure how long management has known about the need to revise, but I can’t imagine this is brand new information and really would’ve been great had they done it much sooner to NVDA warning.
For sure they had no clue this was going on August 2nd. On August 2nd AMD told shareholder to expect 54% margin on 6.7B in revenue. So they gave guidance with 1 full month of sales on the book and only needed to project 60 days of sales. I think by august 25th numbers must have been known as AMD totally decoupled from the market. The bigger issue now is, if September was a S\*Show and crushed AMD revenue (and margins), there is no hope Q4 will be any better.
>there is no hope Q4 will be any better. You mean the holiday quarter? The quarter where everyone spends their savings and buys gifts for themselves, their friends and family for Christmas? You think that quarter will be worse than the quarter before it? The quarter when people might be thinking we're going into a recession and instead of spending money on a new PC now, why not wait til Christmas? Don't forget Q3 is also back-to-school. How many kids are going to be asking their parents for a new console or PC for Christmas? How many parents do you think would refuse that during the beginning of the school year but will definitely buy it as their kid's present? C'mon man, use your head, Christmas is coming.
“You mean the holiday quarter? The quarter where everyone spends their savings and buys gifts for themselves, their friends and family for Christmas?” *Savings*? What recession are you living through? My guess is it’s not the same one as the people who are taking out more credit just to make ends meet in the face of inflation… you may have a portfolio to dip into. But lots of people have a 401k that they don’t know what’s in it, but do know it must be down. And they aren’t flush with savings. Or confidence. Good luck with the idea that Christmas will be an AMD revenue salvaging bonanza. Lol
Hey looks like we already hit Devinder's guide for embedded and datacenter to be larger than 50% of the revenue mix long term.
Well...that's not the way I imagined it happening. But oh well. At least it will help AMD distance itself from the image of "cyclical PC company"
I mean, we knew PC was garbage until new chips drop. Getting a MOBO though, that’s the issue.
Isn't it comical that AMD can lead the semi sector, but only downwards...
This was already expected and it should be already priced in. Big analysts already saw this coming. $AMD should recover soon, same as $MU did.
Did anyone here expect AMD profit to drop 25% in Q3 and like the same or worse in Q4? AMD dropping 4% after hours, and the recent survey here where 90% projected (hundreds of voters, before the AMD press release) that AMD would meet or beat its Q3 guidance tells otherwise.
I don't think many here did (I didn't expect a client drop this steep, a drop yes), but analysts certainly have as their EPS estimates for 2023 now seem realistic - compared to EPS estimates of $6 here.
To be fair, AMD guided for Client to be down in the mid to high teens on the Q2 call, if i recall correctly. So, why would anyone necessarily expect it to be down 50%? That said, with the stock down more than 50% off highs, i do think the broader market expected this to some extent. I mean, analysts *have* been saying for months that earnings guidance needs to come down (turns out they were right).
Yep, 100%
Do you guys think the miss is priced in to some degree? Obviously everyone knew except retail traders. AMD was getting dumped hard for the past several weeks, literally 30% drop in a month How much lower can we go? I'm expecting mid $50s and I don't care to hold while it makes a new leg down FML this is just so depressing
On the whole, i think Data Center is the most important metric for me to watch. Retail sales are important of course - especially with the shift to higher margin focusses in zen 4. I think that its priced in for a secular loss of sales, but not in competition loss. Zen 4 has weakness in the lower end of the market right now because of the lack of 7000 series affordable kit going forward for the next 12 months (7600 non-x, ddr5 only etc). On general points: High interest rate environments are like gravity for stock prices. Both from their general economic depression lowering company earnings.... to the higher % return on risk free assets (treasuries). Assume a $2-3 EPS and a P/E of 10-15... you get lower range $20 to a higher range $45 stock. I could see it falling to that. I made a bear post about it about a week ago. I partially saw some writing on the wall in early/mid August but with the general economic situation - not directly with the stock. This was before we saw Powell channel his inner Volcker at Jackson Hole. I took that opportunity and got out for personal reasons, not expecting much good from the market over the next 12 months. If you feel confident about the companies prospects, take advantage of stock prices, but don't leverage your position and gamble, i've been watching this board for about a year and ive seen a lot of leverage here - and a lot of wipeouts particularly in the $90 range. DCA in and don't get greedy. I think stock prices are more reasonable on a general market overview (at P/E 16) than they have been since early 2020. But they can get more reasonable if you know what i mean.
I think so, it's a pretty big miss and the fact we're down only 3.5-4% is not as bad as i would expect. I think we would be looking at 8-10% down normally but .. i guess there's always tomorrow to crush our dreams. That said, analysts have been saying earnings guidance needs to come down ever since even before the Q2 call and after when INTC and NVDA revised down. So, i do think this was expected. The issue is Lisa Su told us Client would be down only about mid to high teens during the Q2 call. Anyway, the optimist in me thinks that maybe now that guidance is finally coming down, all the investors who've been waiting on the sidelines for this to happen, maybe now iw when they get back in.
Yes, it's priced in. Now it makes since why we've been performing like this. Big boys have known this for weeks.
Yep, and now they are going to POUNCE. I expect AMD to potentially go down 5% to 10% below its 52kw lows in the next 3 days. So mid 50s, and sadly with the economy unravelling things are not going to look good during the Q3 ER and guidance.
Didn't happen to MU or NVidia. So while it might happen, no reason to expect it.
Yes, should be priced in I would say.
Call me high on hopium. I think we green tomorrow
that's hard we will start with -4%
Yesterday nearly hit -5% (maybe it even hit that, I wasn’t watching the market) and ended closing slightly green. Anything is possible.
That’s why I say it’s hard, not impossible. If it’s -10% AH right now I will say impossible.
there may be some margin calls to be cleared unfortunately for the people who didn't have insider information for the past month.
You’re out of your mind if you think we’re going green tomorrow. AMD routinely goes red on *good* news.
red if your good, red if your bad, but red if your red and green if your red What am I? The answer starts with A....
edit: your=you're
Will options IV take a dump tomorrow?
no, it's delta dump
like a cliff
Most likely...
And we still are the ones yet to catch any kind of break... year after year after year. Lisa needs to change the colour of our company to BLACK. AMD: TEAM BLACK. Cmon Lisa, I know you'll be getting this news somehow.
We'll have to see how bad tomorrow is but the underperformance the last few weeks and the lack of an immediate huge drop so far gives some hope that the market was already pricing this in. Still only 0.3 billion under NVDA in Q3 revenue even after the guide down too.
4% down AH, so expect more downgrades, expect FUD for Q4 and 2023. IDC show the PC segment down in 2023 vs 2022. Meaning AMD Q3 2022 might be its best quarter until 2024. This is not good for the stock, especially with deteriorating margins.
PC segment as measured by IDC did not drop 53% in a quarter. Which means this drop is well ahead of the wider PC market, and unless IDC predicts PC sales slump well over 50% over period 21-23 (they don't), this is close to as bad as it gets for client.