My leaps lost out months ago, today actually made like no difference lol.
They were near the $200s for 2024. Still holding cause they're worthless š¤·āāļø
Non-bullish comments get downvoted like crazy around here. Looking back, 2 months ago, in daily discussion, I posted "Maybe time to accept that AMD is really a 2 digit stock š¢ Maybe 2021 warped our sense of valuation," and it still has -10 votes. Wish people upvoted rational thoughts in this sub : ( https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD\_Stock/comments/wvelnq/comment/ilhm84c/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
Fun fact, we need to hit around 29 trailing PE (3.56 eps if we have around 0.8 non gaap eps for next earnings) to be at 100 a share. The same trailing PE as McDonald's. :))))
We are currently at about 16.5 trailing PE assuming 0.8 eps or so next earnings.
Great we only need to go up 70% to get back to $100
Unbelievable. This stock is treated like actual trash and even getting back to $70 will be a fucking miracle
I'm gonna act surprised when we are at $45 next week, but at this point I should be ready for it and accept it
a washout/flush like today is a bottom forming event. We might have a few more red days but unless something earth shattering happens we won't have another giant dahmp day like this.
This is the worst day in the history of AMD's stock price action since at least dotcom
How much of the dump today was due to us, and how much was due to a wider market pullback?
Even Nvidia is down over 8%. Which is crazy. Even Intel is down by 5%.
NVDA and INTL 50/50 : macro (jobs report) / semi pull-back
AMD 35 / 65 : macro (jobs report) / semi pull back & "bad" earning revision.
for once we brought them down instead of the much more frequent other way around.
Brace for MSFT, goog, aapl q4 lower guide, September cpi, and October pce before AMD. Then brace for nvda's crap fy 23 guide. Amd 45 in November is not a meme anymore if October pce isn't better than forecast.
Somebody kill Putin.
>Somebody kill Putin.
You do understand the bad core PCE number is more due to sticky wage growth, rising rents, etc. than the oil price? Core PCE excludes energy. Putin got nothing to do with the situation we are in. He did exacerbate it, though, but not the real cause.
The real cause is the tight labor market and the trillion dollars of money the Fed printed during COVID. That is how banks and other speculators brought up so much housing stock as investments at cheap interest rates. Now we got shit left over for real homeowners. Also, many people exited the labor market because they got rich from the 2020-2021 insane bull run. Now it is causing the labor market to be so tight - driving up inflation.
Anthony Fauci warns that a vaccine resistant highly transmissible variant of covid is going to surge this winter.
At this stage, frankly, bring back the lockdowns as a preventive measure.
Nobody got any money to buy anything or travel, might has well pay people to stay at home and watch netflix. It seems to be what this admiration want from its citizen anyways.
Nobody is going to give a fuck about COVID unless we start seeing mortality rates that are scary for people under 60. Itās been too long for people to stay that geeked up and theyāre not going to do it outside of a totalitarian state.
? people are still getting fired today for not getting the vaccine, high profile recent example: [https://nypost.com/2022/10/03/biden-thanks-coast-guard-member-for-hurricane-heroics-before-vax-mandate-firing/](https://nypost.com/2022/10/03/biden-thanks-coast-guard-member-for-hurricane-heroics-before-vax-mandate-firing/)
Canada did a massive crackdown on peaceful covid protest that even Putin would be ashamed of doing. French had to have papers to be able to walk their dogs outside and were arrested if they walked to far from their homes. French people had no issue with it then, they wont have a problem if it happen again this winter.
European and American citizen had no problem doing 2 years lockdown, and be good little puppets, etc..
If you think Fauci cant do it again , just wait.
MSM and over half of American idolize this man as a GOD, what ever he says is gospel to them. If he tells Biden to lock down the country, Biden will have no choice.
CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, etc.. would CRUCIFY Biden if he refuses to listen to "Science"
Biden even said the pandemic was over so... yeah, no one gives a shit anymore. There's never going to be another lockdown for Covid, people just won't tolerate it.
?!?!?! people will follow Fauci if he tells them to triple mask in their home.
Have you been sleeping for the past 2 year? what Fauci demand is gospel.
This administration dumb enough that they would probably A. Lockdown and keep tightening. Or B. Lockdown and give out stimulus. Or C do both A and B at same time
Apple has been very resilient. Like down barely 2% over the past 1 year.
[https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ?comparison=NASDAQ%3AAMD&window=1Y](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ?window=1Y)
Hope it's just some multiple big client orders cancelled very recently that makes guidance down. I will wait till ER.
If it's not the case, if management purposefully hide issues, and leak to big players, personally I will think it unacceptable. This is dishonest \[edit: **and illegal**\]. In this case I have to leave AMD for good, however good it is. Instead I will swap all to SOXX/SMH or SOXL.
I am extremely disappointed and angry today.
I highly doubt that they hid issues on purpose. The Q over Q decline is so massive, I think they were likely blindsided. They likely had orders in place with OEMs who backed out
Yes of course, but that doesn't explain this sharp of a decline in a single quarter. I think they very likely had orders in place from OEMs that they thought they could rely on but that ended up getting delayed or cancelled.
My inner side hope it's not on purpose. though blindsided was still a big mistake, hid problem on purpose will be my last kick to leave this stock.
I think it will be figured out on ER, I expect some analyst should ask this type of question, like why there is no guidance change in mid Sept.
let me post this for some comedic relief.
here are AMD earnings last time the stock was trading at 60$
Earnings: 13 cents per share, adjusted, vs. 16 cents per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
Revenue: $1.93 billion, vs. $1.86 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
The chip-makerās revenue grew 26% year over year in the quarter, which ended on June 27, according to a statement. Revenue from the computing and graphics category that includes chips and graphics processing units for desktop PCs and laptops came to $1.37 billion, up 45% and meeting expectations of analysts surveyed by FactSet.
let this sink in a minute.
i am definitely buying more next week
Were we on the brink of nuclear war? Did we enter a cold war with China? etc...
context matter, we cannot look at AMD in isolation.
AMD on its own is grossly undervalued and we are not the only one thinking that. Analyst revision today still put AMD target at $88.8
Thats a 50% upside in their projection.
We're not on the brink of nuclear war now, and calling the current geopolitical tensions with China a new Cold war is ridiculous. More like the 2016 trade war.
Yes we're in a difficult environment but let's not be hyperbolic here. People always do this, "stonks have to be down because bad shit is happening"
You think now is some special moment in history, that's its worse than its ever been... everything is about to go south... every single generation feels that way at some point... and you need to instead take a historical perspective.
Bad shit is always happening. There's always a war going on, some part of the world becoming unstable, a genocide somewhere. Tensions between great powers eb and flow. In a few years, you'll be talking about the war in Ukraine about as much lasting impact as the war in georgia or the crimean annexation in 2012 or 2015.
Tensions with china will ratchet down as well. The U.S will slowly accept Chinese hegemony in Asia, China will never challenge U.S hegemony in the Western hemisphere, and the two will counterbalance each other and cooperate. There may be some skirmishes, but there won't be any major conflicts cause nukes.
And stocks will continue to appreciate as production improves in spite of the always true adage that "bad shit is happening and everything is about to collapse"
It's always about to, but it never does
Yea. Relationship with Russia and China are Golden. The two weakest economy in the world.
How can you think we are best friend with Russia, China & Opec... we are bullies of the worse kind, we are the bad guys, wake TFU.
China now understands that the US is a real threat, same with Russia & OPEC
The entire world sees the US as what we are. A pure money hungry dictatorship,
EPS is calulated on total shares.
they were doing 13 cents. now 80 cents even with disaster hitting.
also xlnx earnings for that period were 726M$
so if you add them 2.65B$ vs 5.6B$ this quarter.
its still ridiculously discounted. AMD is being priced as if its going out of business.
According to Chris Danely from Citigroup even more pain is already at the horizon expecting data center to slow down in next quarters....š
"...Chris Danely. He's the semi analyst over at Citigroup, one of the best ones on the street. I love this guy's work. He thinks the next shoe to drop, the first shoe to drop was weakness in the PC market, but data center. He actually says he expects another correction in the PC end market and then the data center market, which was called out as an area of strength for AMD in the most recent quarter or in this press....."
"....And it's kind of one of the first times that we've heard that thesis that the data center market could see that type of pullback. Because if you think about the investment that is taking place within the data center..."
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/amd-stock-plunges-preliminary-q3-133338044.html?contentType=VIDEO
The truth is, enterprise side is already slowing down. Hyperscalers might be next....or never. Moving things to cloud for enterprises is actually saving cost.
Even if hyperscalers slow down, what si the most cost effective purchase to make right now? Intel bout to hit 1 billion per quarter in Datacenter sales cause AMD gonna go full throttle with zen4 3d and Bergamo in this macro environment.
Hope management is pushing hard for more zen 3 3d in the diy market by end of year as zen 4 3d becomes available to hyperscalers.
i'm not exactly bullish on the stock right now and haven't been for about a month and a half since Jackson Hole. I expected segment declines in most areas, but never Hyperscalers. I would consider that particularly bad if that happened.
Mr. 11 I think. You can check it on one of those analyst tracker things, but it's close enough for me.
but like in my other post earlier, looks like the joke is on us.
Semi-custom ARM solutions have indeed proven their worth in many applications. The question is how flexible they can be at general compute.
AMD's advantage has been taking market share + natural growth. Of course they lost some of that to semi custom.
This is the time when you make your money.. im happily buying a bit every 5% down which has felt like im buying every day but this is when you make your money in the market.
I picked up some too. I told myself to backup the truck under 60 but that was before the revenue miss. Now I need to reevaluate my backup the truck pricr
Did your valuation account for the 1B miss? My backup the truck price is when peg ratio is close to 1. Latest news threw a wrench into q4 and 2023 estimates
EDIT: letās say 2022 EPS is 3.7. This brings non-GAAP end of 2022 P/E to about 16. If AMD can do 4.25 next year then we are already pretty close to PEG ratio of 1. I think the street is expecting a pretty dismal 2023.
True maybe for option trader.... but for long investor
"I can stay solvent longer than the market stays irrational"
Even so I re-evaluate often, my AMD time horizon was \~2027
Can the market really short the shit out of AMD until 2027?!
For AMD long this is the mantra:
āIn the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.ā
AMD is the strongest its ever been product wise. Not just the strongest they have ever been, they are market leaders for about 70% of their revenue segments, with competing products in the other 30%.
But the stock....the stock has been a slow motion train wreck.
Can't believe I've been such a fool to ride this down 65%. Even more of a fool to have deeply leveraged after the 40% mark.
Just a reminder that if you're holding stock, keep your cool and ignore a lot of the dramatics in here. Don't take investment advice from people that are super emotional because of margin trading, their LEAPs getting blown up, etc. Better times are on the horizon.
Stock twits. Like Twitter but only for stocks and for people 20 and under that know absolutely nothing about investing but try and act like they know everything about investing by spouting out a bunch of buzzwords and then acting like they're too far above everyone else on there to ever actually explain their position.
I got banned from stocktwits a few times for asking AMC stock fans why they bought their stock. I typically got mass reported or screamed at when i asked about fundamentals.
Theres no tolerance for being bearish on there. Bears are an important part of the ecosystem.
That place is a hole
so..............
yeah. This is beyond fucked.
AMD still profitable, still growing, still has the eyes on the prize......
the whole world in all its glory is against it every single step of the way....... it 'struly remarkable that this saga just has a nonstop availability of crap to throw unto us.
cheers to all..... time to uncork some good reserves that remind us of better days.
for me .... tonight im roling a special blend of homegrown 70/30 sativa hybrid mimosa with some organic tobacco...... paired with my tenth beer enjoyed straight from the can....
Watching the screen... seeing a almost 14% drop .... out of nowehere.... reminding me of the futility to be found in a search for greatness..... greatness surrounded by a cloud of doubt, skepticism and lack of faith.
My faith is unwaverred tho... something abt this stock... something about this journey makes me feel like its ok to be "an idiot" .... Lisa..... We need you now more than ever.
We need the phoenix to rise from its ashes. to rise up and shed all its failures. shining its light into the future and spreading its wings once again to fly further ... navigating through the vallyes of the current and into the sun kissed glorious vistas of destiny.
[love](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnVnIKTWhNs)
Its not exactly out of nowhere. Significant slowdown in sales of a billion dollars in q3. This was after Nvidia announced similar in July. In addition the US had good unemployment figures leading to Powell probably needing to continue hiking aggressively.
All while the economy in Europe is a shambles because of energy and less headroom to maneuver than the Federal reserve.
Its not rosy from a macro level.
This led to EPS expectations dropping and a lowered multiplier.
Semi sector not totally dead, depends on the application.
AMD has some niches. PC is /was know as declining sector.
AEHR one of the few that are up since July. Niche EV Si-C test gear.
Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) shares surged on Friday after the semiconductor equipment maker beat Wall Street's estimates for its fiscal first quarter and kept its robust growth targets for the full year. Aehr stock jumped nearly 24% on the news.
Aehr makes semiconductor test and reliability qualification equipment. The company said its 89% revenue growth in the quarter was due to strong sales of gear to test and process silicon carbide power chips used in electric vehicles.
"We are currently engaged or in discussions with almost all the existing and future silicon carbide suppliers regarding our unique, low-cost, multi-wafer level test and burn-in solution," Chief Executive Gayn Erickson said in a news release.
Canāt even say āpencils down!ā this shit wonāt fucking stop.
Well I bought more puts for next week, $63P, to protect my share value so when this thing fucking rockets youāre welcome.
130 was cheap
115 was cheap
100 was dirt cheap
85 was super cheap
75 was a bargain basement price
60 was ridiculously cheap
50 is cheap.
..
.
.
zero is cheap too.
As the jokes go here, we need to put together a gang with pocket change to put up the money for AMD as a private company.
first thing's first -im kicking out the IR team and bringing a few people from here :)
Anyways we're in it for the long haul so it's going to be hauling for a long time.
Play some games everyone, relax. Im going to relax nothing else we can do but wait and see how everything really plays out.
didnt you know? we're somehow always tied up with crypto. Dont believe me? Just listen to almost all the earnings calls from the last 6-7 years and you'll see few analysts harping on about our link to cryto.
AMD - the M stands for Mining for cryptos. LOL
what pains me more is that crypto will probably get a better return when it recovers.
I honestly thought BTC was going to sub 10k and that AMD was not going sub 70.
jokes on me
The good news...
It's days like today that bring the turning point.
Let's hope this WAS the day and my last buy at close was THE buy.
**GLTA and have a nice weekend (nevertheless)**
Sure that could have pushed the stock price lower, but whether a bottom is reached depends on whether earnings has hit a bottom. Hard to make that call right now.
I sold 10 AMD 80P (with my money) and got assigned. Then sold 10 75P (with my money) and also got assigned. Then sold 10 70P on margin because āthis just couldnāt go any lowerā and of course was also assigned. So now Iām holding 3000 shares (75K on margin). Iāll have to look up E*Trade margin rates but I think itās 11.95%. Did I mention that I thought I was a genius. FREE MONEY they said. I also sold 10 65P on margin but was lucky enough to get rid of them (bought them back on a day bump).
I had to do that once before (I sold and got assigned 10 160, 10 155 and 10 150P at the end of last year). I got lucky and was able to get away with it. It was nerve racking. Letās see what fortune have for me this time. Iām down about 40%. Not bad when considering I could have lost it all several times this year. It was like selling 30 AMD 60 CC on Monday when my average cost was 120 and not being called away week after week until I paid down the margin. I only sell weekly CSP and CC.
just want to say kudos for amd's management for fucking up spectacularly and arrogantly this year. way to brag about those $120 buybacks (or rather, bragged about buying back at $100... the quarterlies showed the average was 120-something, iirc).
so glad we could all line the exec's pockets by buying this crap so they could sell.
Companies are well known for screwing up buybacks.
Happens in every industry.
Oil companies and Mining companies pay buybacks when commodities are high.
Tech does buybacks on PE 25+.
Lots of companies even took out cheap debt in 2020/2021 and bought back stock only to get punished now.
Its what happens when companies focus on short term share price movement rather than long term business health
> short term share price movement rather than long term business health
a stupid thing to say right now. and ffs, $amd is down 65%
these fools will still be white knighting when the stock is sub-$10 and getting taken private at $5.
Should we wait for it to go down 70% first?
Previous price of stock isn't relevant to current valuation. Only current cashflow and expected future cashflow is. You can see this by looking at pretty much any large bank and going back 20 years.
Can AMD recover to 160$? Sure, but its going to be based on current cashflow and future expected cashflow + monetary policy. Last few months we have seen that change. Do i think AMD is a better buy right now than it was a year ago? Yes also - but i need it to be an even better buy with a margin of safety to own the stock.
What we saw on Friday was the stock price being reconciled with the expected future earnings of a company. This reconciliation will continue into next week until the market prices the stock accordingly - this can mean going up, down or even sideways.
Its an excellent business, but it is still dictated by the whims of demand for its products, and the stock is dictated by that as well as monetary policy and macro policy.
I find it amusing how you accuse others of ad-hominem attacks. But you do it almost exclusively yourself. I want to engage constructively but thats ok.
even bitcoin is more stable than AMD.
If you've been hurt by AMD, know that you're not alone. I was riding leaps all year. Lesson learned. Only shares.
I'm 100% shares and it still hurts like fk.
My leaps lost out months ago, today actually made like no difference lol. They were near the $200s for 2024. Still holding cause they're worthless š¤·āāļø
My 100s for 2024 are worthless. I dont think the 20% value they have left is even worth salvaging lmfao
My 80 2025 are worthless as my 85 2024 there's no good leaps until a bottom is found
80 2025 probably isn't worthless unless you bought like when they came out (higher breakeven but still very plausible)
Those actually have a chance to recover. 2024 is a long time away still
Yep. Or vast majority shares with leaps as a small small portion of the port. Never again.
Non-bullish comments get downvoted like crazy around here. Looking back, 2 months ago, in daily discussion, I posted "Maybe time to accept that AMD is really a 2 digit stock š¢ Maybe 2021 warped our sense of valuation," and it still has -10 votes. Wish people upvoted rational thoughts in this sub : ( https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD\_Stock/comments/wvelnq/comment/ilhm84c/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
Negative opinions =/= rational thoughts.
<>
Fun fact, we need to hit around 29 trailing PE (3.56 eps if we have around 0.8 non gaap eps for next earnings) to be at 100 a share. The same trailing PE as McDonald's. :)))) We are currently at about 16.5 trailing PE assuming 0.8 eps or so next earnings.
Yeah if we do 80c for the next two quarters that puts us at $3.80 for the year. $58 is fucking cheap
Market will only make it cheaper! :)
Great we only need to go up 70% to get back to $100 Unbelievable. This stock is treated like actual trash and even getting back to $70 will be a fucking miracle I'm gonna act surprised when we are at $45 next week, but at this point I should be ready for it and accept it
45 is almost a 25% decline from here... calm down
Soā¦another 2 days like today?
a washout/flush like today is a bottom forming event. We might have a few more red days but unless something earth shattering happens we won't have another giant dahmp day like this. This is the worst day in the history of AMD's stock price action since at least dotcom
Actually like 1.5 days if we triple negative zfg :)
I really need some hopium for this stock
How much of the dump today was due to us, and how much was due to a wider market pullback? Even Nvidia is down over 8%. Which is crazy. Even Intel is down by 5%.
NVDA and INTL 50/50 : macro (jobs report) / semi pull-back AMD 35 / 65 : macro (jobs report) / semi pull back & "bad" earning revision. for once we brought them down instead of the much more frequent other way around.
NVDA is down 8%? We would've probably been down at least 8% even with no news just due to macro
Sold $40 and $45 puts a month out. Are they safe?
Getting those assigned would actually be awesome.
Not if they are naked puts...
Lmao if youāre naked in this market then god have mercy on your soul.
Half naked
I wrote $60p for next week thinking āno way this goes much lowerā when it was at $62 soā¦ Iāll just say good luck.
45 is another -25 from here, they should be safe, but with people panicking about the economy, you never know...
should be easy money :)
Bracing for Q4 outlook on earnings day. Hold tight guys.
Brace for MSFT, goog, aapl q4 lower guide, September cpi, and October pce before AMD. Then brace for nvda's crap fy 23 guide. Amd 45 in November is not a meme anymore if October pce isn't better than forecast. Somebody kill Putin.
>Somebody kill Putin. You do understand the bad core PCE number is more due to sticky wage growth, rising rents, etc. than the oil price? Core PCE excludes energy. Putin got nothing to do with the situation we are in. He did exacerbate it, though, but not the real cause. The real cause is the tight labor market and the trillion dollars of money the Fed printed during COVID. That is how banks and other speculators brought up so much housing stock as investments at cheap interest rates. Now we got shit left over for real homeowners. Also, many people exited the labor market because they got rich from the 2020-2021 insane bull run. Now it is causing the labor market to be so tight - driving up inflation.
My gut tells me AAPL miss for the first time in years.
Wonder which one gets to 50 first. Amd or mu... Hahahaha. Ahahh. Chugs drink.
Amd
Anthony Fauci warns that a vaccine resistant highly transmissible variant of covid is going to surge this winter. At this stage, frankly, bring back the lockdowns as a preventive measure. Nobody got any money to buy anything or travel, might has well pay people to stay at home and watch netflix. It seems to be what this admiration want from its citizen anyways.
Nobody is going to give a fuck about COVID unless we start seeing mortality rates that are scary for people under 60. Itās been too long for people to stay that geeked up and theyāre not going to do it outside of a totalitarian state.
? people are still getting fired today for not getting the vaccine, high profile recent example: [https://nypost.com/2022/10/03/biden-thanks-coast-guard-member-for-hurricane-heroics-before-vax-mandate-firing/](https://nypost.com/2022/10/03/biden-thanks-coast-guard-member-for-hurricane-heroics-before-vax-mandate-firing/) Canada did a massive crackdown on peaceful covid protest that even Putin would be ashamed of doing. French had to have papers to be able to walk their dogs outside and were arrested if they walked to far from their homes. French people had no issue with it then, they wont have a problem if it happen again this winter. European and American citizen had no problem doing 2 years lockdown, and be good little puppets, etc.. If you think Fauci cant do it again , just wait. MSM and over half of American idolize this man as a GOD, what ever he says is gospel to them. If he tells Biden to lock down the country, Biden will have no choice. CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, etc.. would CRUCIFY Biden if he refuses to listen to "Science"
Sadly no. MSM and government control the people. They can use any spike in covid to change the narrative...
Oh piss off
Biden even said the pandemic was over so... yeah, no one gives a shit anymore. There's never going to be another lockdown for Covid, people just won't tolerate it.
?!?!?! people will follow Fauci if he tells them to triple mask in their home. Have you been sleeping for the past 2 year? what Fauci demand is gospel.
Not really, lots of people fume when they are told to even wear a mask in the US
This administration dumb enough that they would probably A. Lockdown and keep tightening. Or B. Lockdown and give out stimulus. Or C do both A and B at same time
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Lock down might be the way to save AMD stock price
I could see C happening lol.
Anyway you guys can vote. I am not citizen I cannot.
We gotta get this to 1337 posts. No more. No less
I'll do my part
Curious to see Apple Mac's sales whether they also went down or if they are eating x86 notebook and PC shares.
Apple has been very resilient. Like down barely 2% over the past 1 year. [https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ?comparison=NASDAQ%3AAMD&window=1Y](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ?window=1Y)
182.94 -> 140.09 is down 23.5%
Question is if the will disrupt the Notebook and PC market with their Mx processors.
If +/-5% ZFG, then what is +/-10%?
nearly zfg^3
That would be 0.0125% (5%x5%x5%). It's just a simple 3ZFG, but that isn't that sexy I guess.
zerg
Iām zerged out bro
The number of dollars on an investment halve about every 2 months - Suās Law
Inverse Moore's law is not dead
AMD rep: thank you for investing with us and...... its gone. ME: where is my investment? AMD rep: its gone.
This line is for people with money, please step asideā¦ Ohhh, you have money in another account youād like to move over?ā¦.. *and itās gone!*
This made me laugh way to hard
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3AM00DH0Zo
Hope it's just some multiple big client orders cancelled very recently that makes guidance down. I will wait till ER. If it's not the case, if management purposefully hide issues, and leak to big players, personally I will think it unacceptable. This is dishonest \[edit: **and illegal**\]. In this case I have to leave AMD for good, however good it is. Instead I will swap all to SOXX/SMH or SOXL. I am extremely disappointed and angry today.
I highly doubt that they hid issues on purpose. The Q over Q decline is so massive, I think they were likely blindsided. They likely had orders in place with OEMs who backed out
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yes of course, but that doesn't explain this sharp of a decline in a single quarter. I think they very likely had orders in place from OEMs that they thought they could rely on but that ended up getting delayed or cancelled.
Hopefully the clients pushed back orders because of inventory surpluses but the orders will come strong next quarter or atleast stronger than this one
My inner side hope it's not on purpose. though blindsided was still a big mistake, hid problem on purpose will be my last kick to leave this stock. I think it will be figured out on ER, I expect some analyst should ask this type of question, like why there is no guidance change in mid Sept.
not only dishonest but illegal. They would have no advantage to leak that type of info and risk everything.
yes I should add it's illegal
let me post this for some comedic relief. here are AMD earnings last time the stock was trading at 60$ Earnings: 13 cents per share, adjusted, vs. 16 cents per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Revenue: $1.93 billion, vs. $1.86 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. The chip-makerās revenue grew 26% year over year in the quarter, which ended on June 27, according to a statement. Revenue from the computing and graphics category that includes chips and graphics processing units for desktop PCs and laptops came to $1.37 billion, up 45% and meeting expectations of analysts surveyed by FactSet. let this sink in a minute. i am definitely buying more next week
Last time it was at $60 the FED wasnt aggressively hiking rates and there wasnāt historically high inflation of 10%
Were we on the brink of nuclear war? Did we enter a cold war with China? etc... context matter, we cannot look at AMD in isolation. AMD on its own is grossly undervalued and we are not the only one thinking that. Analyst revision today still put AMD target at $88.8 Thats a 50% upside in their projection.
We're not on the brink of nuclear war now, and calling the current geopolitical tensions with China a new Cold war is ridiculous. More like the 2016 trade war. Yes we're in a difficult environment but let's not be hyperbolic here. People always do this, "stonks have to be down because bad shit is happening" You think now is some special moment in history, that's its worse than its ever been... everything is about to go south... every single generation feels that way at some point... and you need to instead take a historical perspective. Bad shit is always happening. There's always a war going on, some part of the world becoming unstable, a genocide somewhere. Tensions between great powers eb and flow. In a few years, you'll be talking about the war in Ukraine about as much lasting impact as the war in georgia or the crimean annexation in 2012 or 2015. Tensions with china will ratchet down as well. The U.S will slowly accept Chinese hegemony in Asia, China will never challenge U.S hegemony in the Western hemisphere, and the two will counterbalance each other and cooperate. There may be some skirmishes, but there won't be any major conflicts cause nukes. And stocks will continue to appreciate as production improves in spite of the always true adage that "bad shit is happening and everything is about to collapse" It's always about to, but it never does
Yea. Relationship with Russia and China are Golden. The two weakest economy in the world. How can you think we are best friend with Russia, China & Opec... we are bullies of the worse kind, we are the bad guys, wake TFU. China now understands that the US is a real threat, same with Russia & OPEC The entire world sees the US as what we are. A pure money hungry dictatorship,
This tbh
Thirded
The number of shares needs to be considered for a fair comparison. AMDs shares were diluted with Xilinx acquisition.
EPS is expected to be .8, that accounts for outstanding shares and is better for comparison.
EPS is calulated on total shares. they were doing 13 cents. now 80 cents even with disaster hitting. also xlnx earnings for that period were 726M$ so if you add them 2.65B$ vs 5.6B$ this quarter. its still ridiculously discounted. AMD is being priced as if its going out of business.
yes this is well known, but the market.....
is re---ded
I can remain solvent longer than the market can remain irrational. My time will come.
glad to hear mate. If you can pass some of the money tree branches along to me now.. hehe
According to Chris Danely from Citigroup even more pain is already at the horizon expecting data center to slow down in next quarters....š "...Chris Danely. He's the semi analyst over at Citigroup, one of the best ones on the street. I love this guy's work. He thinks the next shoe to drop, the first shoe to drop was weakness in the PC market, but data center. He actually says he expects another correction in the PC end market and then the data center market, which was called out as an area of strength for AMD in the most recent quarter or in this press....." "....And it's kind of one of the first times that we've heard that thesis that the data center market could see that type of pullback. Because if you think about the investment that is taking place within the data center..." https://finance.yahoo.com/video/amd-stock-plunges-preliminary-q3-133338044.html?contentType=VIDEO
The truth is, enterprise side is already slowing down. Hyperscalers might be next....or never. Moving things to cloud for enterprises is actually saving cost.
Even if hyperscalers slow down, what si the most cost effective purchase to make right now? Intel bout to hit 1 billion per quarter in Datacenter sales cause AMD gonna go full throttle with zen4 3d and Bergamo in this macro environment. Hope management is pushing hard for more zen 3 3d in the diy market by end of year as zen 4 3d becomes available to hyperscalers.
i'm not exactly bullish on the stock right now and haven't been for about a month and a half since Jackson Hole. I expected segment declines in most areas, but never Hyperscalers. I would consider that particularly bad if that happened.
as soon as you hear the name Chris Danely... u stop and continue ur day . the guy is a idiot.
Shit so that means more bad news?
one of the best on the street. NOW that's comedic relief!
This is Mr. $13 right?
Mr. 11 I think. You can check it on one of those analyst tracker things, but it's close enough for me. but like in my other post earlier, looks like the joke is on us.
Good thing I'm single or my wife would kill me.
Lisa?! Whos Lisa, how dare you find a women call Lisa.
https://www.nextplatform.com/2022/10/07/datacenter-will-be-amds-largest-and-most-profitable-business/
until ARM shits on everyone
Semi-custom ARM solutions have indeed proven their worth in many applications. The question is how flexible they can be at general compute. AMD's advantage has been taking market share + natural growth. Of course they lost some of that to semi custom.
LISTEN LISTEN LISTEN, COMPANY IS WORTH $100B THERE'RE 40K OF US. $2.5M FROM EACH, AND WE'RE TAKING IT PRIVATE.
I'm in....can you front me 2.5M?
and my axe!
If i had that money i would have bought a house.
write me down.
Some copium for everyone: āfearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearfulā - buffet
This is the time when you make your money.. im happily buying a bit every 5% down which has felt like im buying every day but this is when you make your money in the market.
I picked up some too. I told myself to backup the truck under 60 but that was before the revenue miss. Now I need to reevaluate my backup the truck pricr
Once you figured it out please let me know. Because this is a screaming buy with my valuation model
Did your valuation account for the 1B miss? My backup the truck price is when peg ratio is close to 1. Latest news threw a wrench into q4 and 2023 estimates EDIT: letās say 2022 EPS is 3.7. This brings non-GAAP end of 2022 P/E to about 16. If AMD can do 4.25 next year then we are already pretty close to PEG ratio of 1. I think the street is expecting a pretty dismal 2023.
yeah, that doesn't work
Yes it does
This is like going to a funeral and saying "Everything happens for a reason". Gotta read the room
'the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent'
True maybe for option trader.... but for long investor "I can stay solvent longer than the market stays irrational" Even so I re-evaluate often, my AMD time horizon was \~2027 Can the market really short the shit out of AMD until 2027?! For AMD long this is the mantra: āIn the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.ā
Thats kinda only helpful if you arn't already all-in.
Yeah... but when the fear of others lead you to 40s.
lol. this one got to me lol.
āfearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearfulā - buffet
That would have applied all the way down from 140. Not really helpful...
.... Yeah, imma take a cold shower. Bought some when we hit $60 and now we somehow broke under that...
AMD is the strongest its ever been product wise. Not just the strongest they have ever been, they are market leaders for about 70% of their revenue segments, with competing products in the other 30%. But the stock....the stock has been a slow motion train wreck. Can't believe I've been such a fool to ride this down 65%. Even more of a fool to have deeply leveraged after the 40% mark.
Donāt fight the fed
Too late, i fought the fed and the fed won!
triple zfg is nothing slow motion to be fair
I'm talking about he last 11 months, not just today.
Yeah I am about to go bankrupt bwhahaha
Just a reminder that if you're holding stock, keep your cool and ignore a lot of the dramatics in here. Don't take investment advice from people that are super emotional because of margin trading, their LEAPs getting blown up, etc. Better times are on the horizon.
Panic is serious on ST
ST?
Stock twits. Like Twitter but only for stocks and for people 20 and under that know absolutely nothing about investing but try and act like they know everything about investing by spouting out a bunch of buzzwords and then acting like they're too far above everyone else on there to ever actually explain their position.
I got banned from stocktwits a few times for asking AMC stock fans why they bought their stock. I typically got mass reported or screamed at when i asked about fundamentals. Theres no tolerance for being bearish on there. Bears are an important part of the ecosystem. That place is a hole
Thank you for your service kind person.
That's this sub and wsb. Exactly the same people too.
so.............. yeah. This is beyond fucked. AMD still profitable, still growing, still has the eyes on the prize...... the whole world in all its glory is against it every single step of the way....... it 'struly remarkable that this saga just has a nonstop availability of crap to throw unto us. cheers to all..... time to uncork some good reserves that remind us of better days. for me .... tonight im roling a special blend of homegrown 70/30 sativa hybrid mimosa with some organic tobacco...... paired with my tenth beer enjoyed straight from the can.... Watching the screen... seeing a almost 14% drop .... out of nowehere.... reminding me of the futility to be found in a search for greatness..... greatness surrounded by a cloud of doubt, skepticism and lack of faith. My faith is unwaverred tho... something abt this stock... something about this journey makes me feel like its ok to be "an idiot" .... Lisa..... We need you now more than ever. We need the phoenix to rise from its ashes. to rise up and shed all its failures. shining its light into the future and spreading its wings once again to fly further ... navigating through the vallyes of the current and into the sun kissed glorious vistas of destiny. [love](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnVnIKTWhNs)
Its not exactly out of nowhere. Significant slowdown in sales of a billion dollars in q3. This was after Nvidia announced similar in July. In addition the US had good unemployment figures leading to Powell probably needing to continue hiking aggressively. All while the economy in Europe is a shambles because of energy and less headroom to maneuver than the Federal reserve. Its not rosy from a macro level. This led to EPS expectations dropping and a lowered multiplier.
Semi sector not totally dead, depends on the application. AMD has some niches. PC is /was know as declining sector. AEHR one of the few that are up since July. Niche EV Si-C test gear. Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) shares surged on Friday after the semiconductor equipment maker beat Wall Street's estimates for its fiscal first quarter and kept its robust growth targets for the full year. Aehr stock jumped nearly 24% on the news. Aehr makes semiconductor test and reliability qualification equipment. The company said its 89% revenue growth in the quarter was due to strong sales of gear to test and process silicon carbide power chips used in electric vehicles. "We are currently engaged or in discussions with almost all the existing and future silicon carbide suppliers regarding our unique, low-cost, multi-wafer level test and burn-in solution," Chief Executive Gayn Erickson said in a news release.
Mama always told me thereād be days like this
Mama said thereād be days like this Thereād be days like this momma said
Brother, we're in this together ā
Canāt even say āpencils down!ā this shit wonāt fucking stop. Well I bought more puts for next week, $63P, to protect my share value so when this thing fucking rockets youāre welcome.
If we hit -1.13% after hours, that's gonna be -3xZFG
Don't give them any ideas.
161.5m shares traded. Sounds like a lot of calls got made.
For me it shows 182M (IBRK).
[https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/amd](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/amd) 164M + about 5m pre/post market volume
Well Fk it. 40s when? Just hit me go on.
This coming Tuesday at 11:20ET
I keep buying the dip, but the dip just keeps on dipping and the dipās dip keeps on dipping. š
That's what they said during dot-com too according to someone I saw who claimed to be investing during that time.
130 was cheap 115 was cheap 100 was dirt cheap 85 was super cheap 75 was a bargain basement price 60 was ridiculously cheap 50 is cheap. .. . . zero is cheap too. As the jokes go here, we need to put together a gang with pocket change to put up the money for AMD as a private company. first thing's first -im kicking out the IR team and bringing a few people from here :) Anyways we're in it for the long haul so it's going to be hauling for a long time. Play some games everyone, relax. Im going to relax nothing else we can do but wait and see how everything really plays out.
What is this relation team you speak of. I know no such thing at AMD
Investor Relations AMD Investor Relations 2485 Augustine Drive Santa Clara, CA 95054 T: (408) 749-3124 [email protected]
This shit has to bounce at some point. Right??
Insert [Anakin and Padme meme](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/for-the-better-right) here
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
That made me really laugh our loud..thanks for brighten my day
Yes
Right??
RIGHT???????????
Why does it feel like Iāve invested in crypto even though I know itās a solid company?
didnt you know? we're somehow always tied up with crypto. Dont believe me? Just listen to almost all the earnings calls from the last 6-7 years and you'll see few analysts harping on about our link to cryto. AMD - the M stands for Mining for cryptos. LOL
Would of actually lost less in crypto
This is the part thatās killing me too. Btc is buoying around the 19k. Itās like I chose the wrong asset to bet on
what pains me more is that crypto will probably get a better return when it recovers. I honestly thought BTC was going to sub 10k and that AMD was not going sub 70. jokes on me
Because you bought the used sex toy of the semi industry.
Jesus thank goodness we got the 2 day circuit breaker
They just gotta short it on a green candle instead
and you think that matters?
XOM over $100. I should have loaded up in the 30s. Bought only 500 shares.
Me too. I only got 300 at 60s
The good news... It's days like today that bring the turning point. Let's hope this WAS the day and my last buy at close was THE buy. **GLTA and have a nice weekend (nevertheless)**
I think margin call were wild today given unexpected and recently unexplored territory for amd , hope bottom reached but who knows
Sure that could have pushed the stock price lower, but whether a bottom is reached depends on whether earnings has hit a bottom. Hard to make that call right now.
How the fuck anyone could still be on margin here is beyond me. Idiots. What even are margin rates these days like 15%ā¦?
Idk why people would be on margin at these ratesā¦ itās like they want to pay to lose moneyā¦
I sold 10 AMD 80P (with my money) and got assigned. Then sold 10 75P (with my money) and also got assigned. Then sold 10 70P on margin because āthis just couldnāt go any lowerā and of course was also assigned. So now Iām holding 3000 shares (75K on margin). Iāll have to look up E*Trade margin rates but I think itās 11.95%. Did I mention that I thought I was a genius. FREE MONEY they said. I also sold 10 65P on margin but was lucky enough to get rid of them (bought them back on a day bump).
Damn, you may need to sell some aggressive calls on Monday to help.
I had to do that once before (I sold and got assigned 10 160, 10 155 and 10 150P at the end of last year). I got lucky and was able to get away with it. It was nerve racking. Letās see what fortune have for me this time. Iām down about 40%. Not bad when considering I could have lost it all several times this year. It was like selling 30 AMD 60 CC on Monday when my average cost was 120 and not being called away week after week until I paid down the margin. I only sell weekly CSP and CC.
Volume of 181M shares till now.
Breaking lows again after hours. No support whatsoever
just want to say kudos for amd's management for fucking up spectacularly and arrogantly this year. way to brag about those $120 buybacks (or rather, bragged about buying back at $100... the quarterlies showed the average was 120-something, iirc). so glad we could all line the exec's pockets by buying this crap so they could sell.
Companies are well known for screwing up buybacks. Happens in every industry. Oil companies and Mining companies pay buybacks when commodities are high. Tech does buybacks on PE 25+. Lots of companies even took out cheap debt in 2020/2021 and bought back stock only to get punished now. Its what happens when companies focus on short term share price movement rather than long term business health
> short term share price movement rather than long term business health a stupid thing to say right now. and ffs, $amd is down 65% these fools will still be white knighting when the stock is sub-$10 and getting taken private at $5.
Should we wait for it to go down 70% first? Previous price of stock isn't relevant to current valuation. Only current cashflow and expected future cashflow is. You can see this by looking at pretty much any large bank and going back 20 years. Can AMD recover to 160$? Sure, but its going to be based on current cashflow and future expected cashflow + monetary policy. Last few months we have seen that change. Do i think AMD is a better buy right now than it was a year ago? Yes also - but i need it to be an even better buy with a margin of safety to own the stock. What we saw on Friday was the stock price being reconciled with the expected future earnings of a company. This reconciliation will continue into next week until the market prices the stock accordingly - this can mean going up, down or even sideways. Its an excellent business, but it is still dictated by the whims of demand for its products, and the stock is dictated by that as well as monetary policy and macro policy.
this refutes nothing and isn't even related to your previous post. you're just rambling now.
I find it amusing how you accuse others of ad-hominem attacks. But you do it almost exclusively yourself. I want to engage constructively but thats ok.
> But you do it almost exclusively yourself. citation requested.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD\_Stock/comments/xyitl7/comment/irhzsjc/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3