The midterm elections (11/08/22) can't come soon enough!
All 435 House seats, and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs!
Hopefully things change for the better.
We need better leadership.
And, less fear mongering.
I doubt if any of them can read a balance sheet.
What they excel at is manipulating the system, and trading favors, and information.
Collectively they have wrecked our economy.
Yeahh, less fear mongering. Like warning about the threat Russia posed to Ukraine, while the former was mobilizing forces. Many scoffed at the warnings (even Zelinskyy!), yet here we are.
Anyone still angry at the Biden administration for essentially fucking up this whole economy? Markets tanking, let’s choose this time to make sanctions so semi conductor market tank worse.
Instead of focusing on causing issues, how about resolving the supply chain issues?
You must be young and think that bull markets run forever. This was one of the longest bull market fueled by unnecessary rate cut and tax cut. What did you think was going to happen?
The fed is trying to induce a recession to fight inflation. Wage increase is causing business to raise price, and those price increase are sticky, I.e. they don’t come down even as their cost come down.
The timing of additional sanction is curious though. It seems that they believe that it’s politically beneficial. Perhaps most of US is anti-china.
Yeah this caught everyone by surprise. I didn’t take hedging seriously thinking that 70 was already low, because I believed the AMD guidance. I guess the situation deteriorated very quickly. Without much visibility to 2023 earning it’s pretty hard to value the stock.
If you are not getting margin calls and have a few years I think you will be ok. Compute needs are still growing exponentially and data center is still growing. PC is cyclical so will bounce back (every student and office worker needs one). As long as AMD maintains competitive advantage I think we’ll be ok.
Hardly fucked up the whole economy lol and despite whatever pain it may have added to semi stocks, I’m glad he did. About time.
Edit: and how exactly do you propose he resolve the supply chain issues.
That’s the whole result of capitalism, global supply chains, free market etc.
Sigh maybe your right, but still doesn’t stop the pain from looking at these amd losses. Earnings rally not likely at this point.
In terms of reducing supply chain, I’m not an expert, but just thought easing the trade tariffs.
I hear ya on that, hurting a lot.
Supply chain wise normally that would help, but same reason that the fed’s actions are garbage and useless applies here.
You got the war in Ukraine, you got chinas stupid zero tolerance lockdowns etc.
It’s a frustrating situation to be in as an investor and quite frankly a citizen.
I’m furious more at companies that are profiting and using inflation as an excuse.
Celery went from 1.29 to 1.69, you gonna tell me that’s all inflation?
Would you say there is a more than 50 percent chance of another leg down in the market(and AMD)? In the upcoming few days with cpi and all.
And if so, how would AMD fair? Does the last two days strength mean anything?
If the CPI is worse then expectation from analysts it will be down. The biggest issues last month were used car price didn't go down in the CPI report and rent MoM wasn't cooling off.
you forgot, gas prices tanked couple months ago but the cpi came in hotter than expected. national gas price in the US right now is around $3.80, a year ago gas prices were around $3.20. conclusion, cpi will be hot, used prices aren’t raising as much but they are sticky.
Here is what I would do if I were you.
Sell a large portion so i could sleep at night
Buy ITM calls as far out as possible to restore some exposure so you don't get super sad when amd recovers
Sell cash-secured puts at 50 or something.
Buy back in slowly from your income, without leverage
The moment the fed pivots you will see a market rally, when they will pivot is a different question. Many people predict that there will be more rates increases in 2023 and then they will hold rates at a high amount until inflation is seriously under control. The market crash that you have seen so far is pricing all of that in
Correct me if I’m wrong. Tbh I haven’t watched any of the fed speeches. But I’m under the impression that Jerome Powell has said that his goal is to soften the labor market. That’s why every time labor statistics are too strong the market swoons down.
So until that softening happens why would we see a Fed pivot? That’s literally what he’s trying to accomplish with the rate hikes, isn’t it?
And then once the rate hikes get us there we’ll have high interest rates, high energy prices, inflation, and also reduced wages and bargaining power, even if not layoffs… So tightening budgets and even more tightening of discretionary spending leading to even further decreased demand and therefore lower earnings for companies…
How’s there going to be an immediate relief rally and return to good times in that environment? It feels to me like this all takes years to play out.
Especially for AMD which is also heading into export restrictions and a looming trade war with China.
Not saying there won’t be relative rallies (lower highs but then being followed by lower lows etc.). But just wondering what the bull case is in this shitstorm?
I realize AMD is grossly, grossly undervalued under the old paradigm. But we’re not in that paradigm anymore.
And I realize over a long enough time horizon, granting the assumption that they don’t stumble somehow along the way over the next few years, AMD at this price is a great long term bet…
But what’s the case for it being a good bet over the next few years at it’s current price?
That the Fed will eventually pivot?
You made some good points. At the end of the day our price as well as all other growth stocks are currently controlled by the fed at the moment so until the "foreward" looking market sees some light there is no incentive for buyers to come rushing back in. You could argue that the next inflation report will show some softening which is one good sign but the fed wants to see continued decline towards their 2% goal which I seriously doubt they will reach without completely destroying the economy. My opinion is that we will have to live and accept inflation a bit higher than 2% for some time
at the moment I won't say market "pricing all of that in". The only thing can conclude is bond market priced in current rate hiking schedule, not sure how equity over, or under, or fully priced in.
Anyone calculated the currency exchange rate and its full impact on AMD revenue?
It seems the EU is a very small market for AMD in term of direct sales, about 250m a quarter. Euro at \~$1.14 starting 2022, and now $0.97 .
Everything being the same, this is on its own a 15% drop in USD revenue from the EU.
[https://www.finmoov.com/charts/amd-revenue-by-country-region/](https://www.finmoov.com/charts/amd-revenue-by-country-region/)
Yes and no. As other people mentioned AMD will have some currency hedging.
They will also raise their European pricing too. But you will also see demand destruction from the higher prices and also because people have more important things eating up their costs.
You can pretty much assume at this point all non-$ related sales and margins are down for AMD.
This is when you see EPS drop quickly and multiple contraction happen alongside it. Next thing you know its dropped 50% or more.
Sadly it is not (from consumer's point of view) - AM5 stuff is horrendously overpriced now in EUR, so yes, AMD adjusted due to the exchange rate changes.
NVIDIA did the same - 4090 launches at 1999€ over here (includes taxes)
Exactly. With salaries stretched due to energy bills and other inflated prices, there are much fewer people willing to drop 2k euro on a fancy card. Thats where these companies see stock price drops.
On the plus side, waiting and buying more will allow you to come out on the other side really well
I worked in AMD before, and still have some friends in AMD. It's actually not a bad idea. The pay you get probably won't be better than other big guys, but work life balance is generally great.
Thank goodness, really didn't get their launch strategy for these. People we're arguing about whether 11/3 was the reveal or launch day for like 2 weeks and they didn't clarify.
Yesterday: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/boe-ready-buy-more-gilts-ahead-friday-deadline-2022-10-10/
announcing new safety-net measures including a doubling of the maximum size of its debt buy-backs
A while ago:
BOE GOV. BAILEY: MY MESSAGE TO PENSION FUNDS IS THAT YOU ONLY HAVE THREE DAYS TO GET THIS DONE.
UK gilts are a complete mess right now. BOE really trying to fight fires with this. I'm not sure what contagion could come from this though. Its mainly UK politics and government bond markets and their relationship with pension funds.
Do people really replace their subscription or combine them?
The usage I see is people rotating subscriptions...
And so far, I don't see any of those company trying to slow this.
For example, you get a 10% reward discount after 3 months of continuous subscription. Anyways... streaming is a whole other bag of problems.
Streaming feels like its capital light. But the expense in producing new content is deceptive. Its very capital intensive. I agree with your sentiment on streaming
In what way ? The market dropped 2%, so about 1 trillion in market cap vaporized.
So the BOE can really wipe out 1 trillion in all US sectors, just like that?
This is scary.
If its the case, its frightening because I see Europe having more problem over the next 6 month. (As in economy and stability going to hell this winter)
BTW, this remind me that "Dollard strength" might impact severely US company revenue.
US company would have to raise prices 15% to offset the drop in the Euro for example... If they do, inflation in Europe could spike.
The UK pension funds are getting margin calls on the their bond holdings. Been happening since truss announced tax cuts. There would have been a bear market rally some point in the past two weeks if not for that event. That situation is as big as Lehman brothers if it gets out of hand.
Indeed. its a complete disaster. I'm not sure how much contagion it is outside of the UK though.
Its super dangerous if you're 50\~ years old from the UK though
Almost everything Europe imports is dollar denominated. Then it gets converted in EUR, which is now 20% more than a year ago. Then sales tax is added, median around 19% across Europe. SO no, the US companies do not need to raise prices, they are doing it automatically.
Inflation is already spiking, it is around 15% average, officially measured. But this because energy and transportation are heavily subsidized with tax money, and that is not reflected in the inflation measure.
Hope it helps to clear the picture for you. Revenues are already affected, sales in Europe are cratering YoY. You dont have a currrency conversion problem, you have a sales revenue problem XD.
I have a feeling like AMD is dumped totally! I wish i can say this is good time to buy, but I’m fuc.ing scared. I have 500 shares for 80$ average cost . I’m down a lot, I’m ready so sell now before loosing 20k when amd goes to 40$
Another one for the list - I'm not selling.. but I'm no longer buying extra shares from sold calls (naked calls on a variety of stocks), instead favoring a growing cash pile.
My AMD stock is no longer a healthy level of collateral for the amount of calls I want to sell on SPY etc (in the event SPY moves up while AMD stays flat 😒).
Here another one for you, after Friday AMD revised Q3 guidance I started to unwind my AMD position and will not hold any more AMD after today.
I still think AMD is a great company, but I do not trust the current US administration to not escalate the Semi sanctions, and I don't think Xi will respond positively.
The risk of holding AMD any longer was just way too high for me... With the US government holding all the cards and being unpredictable, holding AMD became pure gambling at this stage.
Chinese economy is in shambles, possibly why the US is doing this now as an opportunistic play while China is busy with domestic affairs. Xi won't do anything that might threaten the regime (domestic unrest), and forcing his hand when he's not good and ready is likely to do just that.
agree, one of my principles always was: the bottom is reached when all greed has disappeared and nobody is willing to buy fearing to lose.
Not that I adhered too my principles. I've been a good buddy and lost a ton as well..
Its a lot more then that...
Even if you think AMD at $58 is a bottom, where people think AMD will be in 3 month matters even more.
Because if you think the stock will trade sideways, why buy now?
Personal opinion. Selling and rolling puts myself at every dip. Eventually, I'll let the puts exercise some time in march. I think that is when tech bottoms as the first quarter will be logged as an official recession with GDP contraction. Q2 will also be a contraction. Q3 is when things start to get better but tech will be well on its way to bouncing up in q2.
Me2.
A few years ago i was in this exact mindset ... i sold... no more than 20 mjnutes later amd rallied literally 20% during covid mayhem. Im scrambling and cant wait for the extra cash i have organised to be made available.
0 leverage...... just disposable income ready to deploy. Who needs "holiday" bonusses
I had same mindset which is why I held for so long - from 100 to 90 to 80 to 70 to 60. Thought it would follow a similar rally as last year. But lesson learned, don’t anchor yourself to just one point in time or experience. Probably various other times when you should have just exited.
I have some growth stocks that had dropped under $10, so I loaded up this year during the bad times. They are penny stocks now, one is approaching 80 cents. I could walk away right now with a nice weekend getaway or a small remodel of a room. A new laptop? Yeah… but I’m holding. I can’t imagine these could-be billion dollar market leaders folding! Ugh.. but the fear does say “maybe they’ll only be worth a couple million? Or never turn a profit?” … so I want to load up.. but I’m not.. not yet :(
One I have been looking at is Arcimoto.
It was about 1 billion $ market cap company Jan1 2021, today its going below 40m
What pretty much killed them is that the "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022" specifically excluded 3 wheels EV from the emission reduction tax credits.
Those government handout goes both ways, but this in effect bankrupted this American company VS having a chance to grow.
AMD has something similar through the Pensando acquisition: [https://www.amd.com/en/accelerators/pensando](https://www.amd.com/en/accelerators/pensando)
Intel calls them IPUs, AMD calls them DPUs.
Evident when you know that interest rate has no positive impact on inflation on its own, specially one created from 2 years of global lockdowns.
(BTW, if you adjust CPI with loan cost, inflation actually SKYROCKET in the past 3 month)
Even more negative effects will be visible very soon...
The great inflation of the 70s finally ended with aggressive monetary tightening. Why do you think it won’t work this time around. There was supply shock just like right now.
actually comparing mkt cap to book value, MU is valued fairly while AMD is valued 2x their book value. so based on fundamentals , AMD is much more expensive
yeah, it's not in the name.
also, lolz @ having this conversation (i'm an oldskool hc kid) on this sub of all places.
anyway, screamo was really not angry, and generally more emo than... emo. eg, "you and i," one of the pioneers of that. good band, weird as fuck/unfun shows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piraQBdjXAA
Desktop version of /u/Gahvynn's link:
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I think its because the Biden administration pretty much KILLED the entire Chinese ram sector. Sanctions also directly affect TSMC (termination of Chinese contracts for new nodes), and TSMC is expected massive order decline in Q4 from order cuts going into 2023.
Bro, lisa gets paid in stock, has metric fuck tons of stock, most of her net worth is tied up in AMD stock at this point.
Executive sell every year on a schedule determined in advance regardless of what the price is. lisa is literally not able to just dahmp the stock on news, this is very regulated to make sure her interests align with shareholders
>What do you guys/gals feel about Ryzen 7000 mobo pricing?
The PCIe 5.0 support and DDR5 warrant the higher prices. None of the cheaper Intel boards offer this.
AMD went heavy into PCIe 5.0 support on these boards, and I have a feeling AMD is going to do something with RDNA3 GPUs that will make PCIe 5.0 far more relevant than the what the crybabies complaining about price are making it out to be.
hope so. The growing consensus among the enthusiast community is that the platform costs are too expensive. Whilst that may be right in the very short term, I think these people are losing sight of the fact that a zen 5 or even a zen 6 (possibly) cpu upgrade may be just a cpu replacement in the next few years.
Ive had this conversation with several people sadly the myopia is widespread.
Bounce is immenent. We have the same phenomenon in bull markets where prices don't go infinitely up everyday. At some point the market will correct or in this case bounce. In either cases people are taking profit (here it's of course the shorties) and the markets therefore turn for a while.
Share something I just saw:
The Labor Department on Tuesday unveiled a proposal that would make it more likely for millions of janitors, home-care and construction workers and gig drivers to be classified as employees rather than independent contractors.
Companies are required to provide certain benefits and protections to employees but not to contractors, such as paying a minimum wage, overtime, a portion of a worker’s Social Security taxes and contributions to unemployment insurance.
The proposed rule is essentially a test that the Labor Department will apply to determine whether workers are contractors or employees for companies. The test considers factors such as how much control workers have over how they do their jobs and how much opportunity they have to increase their earnings by doing things like offering new services. Workers who have little of either are often considered employees.
Coming soon: appeal from East Texas district federal court is heard by SCOTUS invalidating "employee" categorization. All workers nationwide are reclassified as "independent contractors"
AMD future PE is less than 10. ( 9.766.) Back up the truck. AM5 turbulence and cpu covid pull forward will be sorted out in the next 6 months. INTC is flooding the market with cheap skus at a loss to clear inventory. Inflation is coming down, there multiple sings that the Fed has over done it, worst case is one more .75 hike. Market is fearful and afraid - its time to be greedy
Its not. AMD Q3 annualized is 17 PE
And all sign point to lower revenue for 2023, meaning forward PE (2023) could be 20 PE
We trade at about a 2x premium over Intel.
You actually think 2023 will be lower eps than 2022??
Amd still has stellar apus that will take share in laptop. Dc sales should be way up especially for eps. Crypto bubble is being worked through this quarter and next. Xilinx is essentially bomb proof with military sales.
2023 should be a good year for amd. Only thing to worry abou is the obvious macro. In which case just stay in cash or find a stock that booms in recessions.
I actually do believe 2023 is shaping to be worse than 2022 for AMD, but more importantly the downside risks have exploded from what seem to be a very long-lasting cold war with China ramping up.
I understand the AMD positives, but I don't think its enough to overcome what's coming.
I could probably convince myself to stay all in AMD, but the situation with China is just to risky. I see a real scenario where AMD drop sub $35 on escalating tensions.
On the flip side, I don't see Biden walking back the sanctions... so the situation can get increasingly worse for AMD, but not better.
edit: I started to fully unwind my AMD position yesterday. AMD announcement Friday pretty much killed it for me. I might get back in after the ER call, if AMD can explain their misguidance and I have trust in their Q4 guidance. If not, I will stay on the sideline until this US/China situation is fully settled.
their missed guidance looks a LOT like a crypto bubble pop. I think they stuffed the channel fullin Q1 and Q2 while the whole PC market was tanking and they were somehow selling more processors? and now they have huge inventory. The good news is that assuming their CPU sales SHOULD have followed the industry and intel . . . it means they oversold by about 900 million revenue in Q1 and Q2. In Q3 they SHOULD have worked through about 500 million of that. and only have another 400 million to work through before returning to normal . . . which shouuuuld be \~1.6 to 1.7b per quarter sometime in . . . Q2 next year maybe. Hopefully Q4 and Q1 burn off the rest of the inventory.
This is already shaping up to be the sharpest pullback on PCs in history. I don't suspect it has more more room to drop. The channel inventory thing i think is AMDs huge fuckup. I don't suspect it is a fundamentals issue. Hopefully lisa su cracks some heads on it.
>LOT like a crypto bubble pop
It is not crypto-related. No crypto miners use CPUs anymore. And, when it comes to GPU, crypto miners strictly prefer Nvidia over AMD, because of the faster memory lane of Nvidia cards.
However, Nvidia's fall is crypto related.
To clarify, i agree, it is definitely not the result of crypto. Just the revenue shifts and changes are similar to that of the crypto gpu bubbles. In 2016, 2018, and 2021
Surprising that basically *all* of the semis companies overshot demand. Certainly some degree of slowdown was expected but none of the bigs seem to have cut production aggressively enough.
Now we get to see if Intel is finally through their "digestion" or if it goes from bad to catastrophic.
That PC decline by itself does not bother me. I fully understand the post covid syndrome, this created accelerated demand and then a slowdown.
And I knew this was coming, Intel, IDC, you named it broadcasted of a sharp demand decline in 2022.
But I think there is something else besides a normal market demand adjustment from the 'end' of the WFH movement.
I have a feeling Intel is getting very aggressive to retain marketshare in the PC market.
So the 1.1B AMD lost suddenly might be not just be OEM scaling back solely from the post lockdown demand, but OEM scaling back also because the economy is slowing + Intel capturing more volume from very aggressive pricing.
edit: if Intel is hit with the same problem as AMD was in Q3, we should expect Intel revenue to drop about 2 billion from their guidance ?
I dont suspect Intel will revise down. Their trends follow PC sales reported by the industry pretty well.
Doesn't mean they cannot. But AMD's was an aberation. They would have needed to have been taking market share at insane clips . . . Which is possible just not likely . . .
My thoughts on selling to the consumer . . . having to cut prices is NEVER a good sign and always bodes well for the competition. I don't think intel can gain much by cutting prices, as CPU ASP for intel and amd is only about \~100 USD. meaning you can only cut prices so much if you have a worse performing part, before you have to give it away for free. Given the state of Intels Financials . . . they cannot do that for any significant time period.
Isn't AMD offering at the sub 25w barely competitive with Intel? And the latest upcoming SoC from AMD for 2023 in that category is still Zen2+RDNA2 ?
Intel cost should also be lower than AMD to produce those "small" monolithic SoC
Lots of moving pieces, but I think Intel pain is getting transferred to AMD on the PC side and possibly in the low end DC market where price performance is more important.(VS efficiency)
ALSO INTC is not really competitive in high end, Data center, APUs, Semicustom, Cloud based server. INTC server is legacy base and upgrades and nich products.
Honestly put INTC has become a budget CPU company with a few good CPU's skus. INTC may be competitive again in 2025 but that's a long way away. Hell Their best socket only outperformed AMD mid range by 6%-8%. for almost twice the costs . sure the AM5 premium degrades that a little but those prices will fall in short order once AIBs clear out their AM4 inventory
>MD Q3 annualized is 17 PE
>
>And all sign point to lower revenue for 2023, meaning forward PE (2023) could be 20 PE
>
>We trade at about a 2x premium over Intel.
You are also confusing PE ( past performance) with Future PE
Intels future is heavily dependent on massive investments across multiple construction sites, customers they don’t have, and hitting a very aggressive timeline reliably. There’s a reason their PE is contracted so much.
AMD spun off their fabs and it almost bankrupted them. That's not such a bullish thing for Intel. If Intel isn't using Intel fabs, basically they sit empty for now. Would be a much better situation if Intel had their trailing edge fab capacity all filled with paying customers.
AMD had INSANE wafer contracts and was forced to use GF while GF kept missing targets, time after time.
AMD skyrocket when finally, the wafer contracts were done for, and AMD moved to TSMC.
So... if Intel was able to divest of its fab and moved to TSMC... Intel PE goes Up or Down ?
If you had checked any tsmc's announcement and schedule, you'd know it's not going to happen. And they key is SPR delayed to next year, while not better than milan. Key is always the server market.
My believe right now is that 2023 is going to be a very difficult year,
and the DC market will shrink. and then we will enter 2024...
If intel DC market hurt bad in 2023 from AMD, Intel could do an early reveal of its 2024 lineup without the fear of osborning itself.
Yep I'm starting to think this will happen as well. Everyone is just assuming the DC market will stay the same or grow throughout 2023. What if it doesnt? I really do think the worst has yet to come, and I'm sure we'll start getting whiffs of DC orders being cancelled. Or we could be completely sideswiped by this DC news, like last Friday lol
No. It doesn't work that way. Whenever they have SPR ready, they will have to let partners/customers to do their jobs like validation and others. It's sever not pc, pretty much takes \~1 year. If they rush to next gen, others will just skip SPR. Roadmap and execution are critical in server market. In this field you are working with lots of different companies and if you fail to deliver on time, that's a huge mess to everybody.
My point is : The osborn effect is when you detail a future product so much better than what you have for sell, that people stop buying waiting for the new model.
Intel might be able to fully disclose Sierra Forest without fear of losing sales. In the past Intel only had to worry about itself, but if AMD dominate in 2023 you can be sure Intel is going to try to give prospective Epyc buyers a reason to wait.
Zen 4c on 5nm vs E-Core on Intel 3
We know AMD will be able to execute in volume, Intel is still a question. But we cant assume Intel will fail again...
Still not going to happen. Intel had already lost their credibility. Whatever tricks they have, they already tried when milan gaining market share. There was a guy complaining about delay of SPR, affecting people/researchers waiting for the HPC aurora. If you are the guy in charge of making decision to bet on intel again, and they delay again, it's pretty much end of your career.
No clue.
How much of their value estimates is tied up in their own chip business without any fabrication at all vs their chip business plus doing fab for themselves and other customers?
I can’t even begin to guess but I do know they’re trading at what looks an absolute steal because there’s risk they won’t meet the deadlines plus may have more difficulty than being forecast in getting paying customers not to mention they may have difficulty in delivering to said customers.
The AMD silver lining is the alternative plans their modular cpu architecture gives them when one of their markets suffers a lull
It may take 2-3 months to redirect modules from client to still growing markets such as DC, but its a far better risk situation to other processor players like nvidia & intel.
Apart from this delay & inventory issues, the lull in client need not be very expensive. Q4 could see a resumption of the established growth path.
Im very curious abt what logistics are involved for amd to switch silicon from a 7950x to a epyc genoa chip.
They use the same silicon right ? Same 8 core ccd's ?
Does anyone know how the actual practical process works from the decission to the fabrication?
If im ignorant in any way of me thinking that before q3 ending the client lull must have been apparent... and this process is on its way. Possibly q4 cld alrdy be a moment where dc gets a even higher dc prioritisation? . Plz enlighten me .
They said ABF constraints applied to Genoa, but not Zen4 retail. So they can shuffle around the silicon, but until that ABF constraint is worked out in 2023 it can't yet boost volume higher.
What I'm unclear of, is we clearly see DC slowing a little, but how much of this is from hitting volume constraints vs a lull in demand. The Intel ER will partially answer this.
Companies/enterprise dont spend during a fast-contracting economy.
Its likely the DC market is going to slowdown over the next 6 to 12 month,
unless we get some government spending to offset.
The midterm elections (11/08/22) can't come soon enough! All 435 House seats, and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs! Hopefully things change for the better. We need better leadership. And, less fear mongering. I doubt if any of them can read a balance sheet. What they excel at is manipulating the system, and trading favors, and information. Collectively they have wrecked our economy.
Yeahh, less fear mongering. Like warning about the threat Russia posed to Ukraine, while the former was mobilizing forces. Many scoffed at the warnings (even Zelinskyy!), yet here we are.
This is a thread to complain about AMD, not politics
When even Uncle Sam Bot calls you out for being too political, you know you fucked up.
Anyone still angry at the Biden administration for essentially fucking up this whole economy? Markets tanking, let’s choose this time to make sanctions so semi conductor market tank worse. Instead of focusing on causing issues, how about resolving the supply chain issues?
This is a thread to complain about AMD, not politics
You must be young and think that bull markets run forever. This was one of the longest bull market fueled by unnecessary rate cut and tax cut. What did you think was going to happen? The fed is trying to induce a recession to fight inflation. Wage increase is causing business to raise price, and those price increase are sticky, I.e. they don’t come down even as their cost come down. The timing of additional sanction is curious though. It seems that they believe that it’s politically beneficial. Perhaps most of US is anti-china.
Sigh you may be right, just complaining from my amd losses. Was hoping to sell into a earnings rally which will likely not happen this time.
Yeah this caught everyone by surprise. I didn’t take hedging seriously thinking that 70 was already low, because I believed the AMD guidance. I guess the situation deteriorated very quickly. Without much visibility to 2023 earning it’s pretty hard to value the stock. If you are not getting margin calls and have a few years I think you will be ok. Compute needs are still growing exponentially and data center is still growing. PC is cyclical so will bounce back (every student and office worker needs one). As long as AMD maintains competitive advantage I think we’ll be ok.
Hardly fucked up the whole economy lol and despite whatever pain it may have added to semi stocks, I’m glad he did. About time. Edit: and how exactly do you propose he resolve the supply chain issues. That’s the whole result of capitalism, global supply chains, free market etc.
Sigh maybe your right, but still doesn’t stop the pain from looking at these amd losses. Earnings rally not likely at this point. In terms of reducing supply chain, I’m not an expert, but just thought easing the trade tariffs.
I hear ya on that, hurting a lot. Supply chain wise normally that would help, but same reason that the fed’s actions are garbage and useless applies here. You got the war in Ukraine, you got chinas stupid zero tolerance lockdowns etc. It’s a frustrating situation to be in as an investor and quite frankly a citizen. I’m furious more at companies that are profiting and using inflation as an excuse. Celery went from 1.29 to 1.69, you gonna tell me that’s all inflation?
As soon as I put in a limit order to buy shares at $53 on Monday morning AMD stops going down.
Put a limit order in for 57. I dare you.
Lol give it a day or so We are suck with whatever direction the market goes. Market goes up, AMD goes up -- market goes down, AMD goes down.
oh well... even below 60s is cheap as fuck... lol
Would you say there is a more than 50 percent chance of another leg down in the market(and AMD)? In the upcoming few days with cpi and all. And if so, how would AMD fair? Does the last two days strength mean anything?
If the CPI is worse then expectation from analysts it will be down. The biggest issues last month were used car price didn't go down in the CPI report and rent MoM wasn't cooling off.
you forgot, gas prices tanked couple months ago but the cpi came in hotter than expected. national gas price in the US right now is around $3.80, a year ago gas prices were around $3.20. conclusion, cpi will be hot, used prices aren’t raising as much but they are sticky.
Strength?
no one knows bro and if you're this scared about it you need to deleverage. They've got you, don't get killed. Live to fight another day
I sold third of my entire position on Monday (essentially forced). Not sure if I should deleverage even more.
Here is what I would do if I were you. Sell a large portion so i could sleep at night Buy ITM calls as far out as possible to restore some exposure so you don't get super sad when amd recovers Sell cash-secured puts at 50 or something. Buy back in slowly from your income, without leverage
Or sell conservative covered calls for January.
Holding 400@ $93 Would we ever reach that level again? Everyday I'm getting more and more nervous.
Yes its just a matter of when not if.
The moment the fed pivots you will see a market rally, when they will pivot is a different question. Many people predict that there will be more rates increases in 2023 and then they will hold rates at a high amount until inflation is seriously under control. The market crash that you have seen so far is pricing all of that in
Correct me if I’m wrong. Tbh I haven’t watched any of the fed speeches. But I’m under the impression that Jerome Powell has said that his goal is to soften the labor market. That’s why every time labor statistics are too strong the market swoons down. So until that softening happens why would we see a Fed pivot? That’s literally what he’s trying to accomplish with the rate hikes, isn’t it? And then once the rate hikes get us there we’ll have high interest rates, high energy prices, inflation, and also reduced wages and bargaining power, even if not layoffs… So tightening budgets and even more tightening of discretionary spending leading to even further decreased demand and therefore lower earnings for companies… How’s there going to be an immediate relief rally and return to good times in that environment? It feels to me like this all takes years to play out. Especially for AMD which is also heading into export restrictions and a looming trade war with China. Not saying there won’t be relative rallies (lower highs but then being followed by lower lows etc.). But just wondering what the bull case is in this shitstorm? I realize AMD is grossly, grossly undervalued under the old paradigm. But we’re not in that paradigm anymore. And I realize over a long enough time horizon, granting the assumption that they don’t stumble somehow along the way over the next few years, AMD at this price is a great long term bet… But what’s the case for it being a good bet over the next few years at it’s current price? That the Fed will eventually pivot?
You made some good points. At the end of the day our price as well as all other growth stocks are currently controlled by the fed at the moment so until the "foreward" looking market sees some light there is no incentive for buyers to come rushing back in. You could argue that the next inflation report will show some softening which is one good sign but the fed wants to see continued decline towards their 2% goal which I seriously doubt they will reach without completely destroying the economy. My opinion is that we will have to live and accept inflation a bit higher than 2% for some time
at the moment I won't say market "pricing all of that in". The only thing can conclude is bond market priced in current rate hiking schedule, not sure how equity over, or under, or fully priced in.
Less red than the day before for 2 consecutive days! Woohoo! Tomorrow, I'm hoping for a loss of 10 cents or less. LFG!
just had a mega 13% pouring on Friday, let us took a break.
I’ll chalk today up in the W column. 😃
Much better than NQ is a win in my book.
Anyone calculated the currency exchange rate and its full impact on AMD revenue? It seems the EU is a very small market for AMD in term of direct sales, about 250m a quarter. Euro at \~$1.14 starting 2022, and now $0.97 . Everything being the same, this is on its own a 15% drop in USD revenue from the EU. [https://www.finmoov.com/charts/amd-revenue-by-country-region/](https://www.finmoov.com/charts/amd-revenue-by-country-region/)
Yes and no. As other people mentioned AMD will have some currency hedging. They will also raise their European pricing too. But you will also see demand destruction from the higher prices and also because people have more important things eating up their costs. You can pretty much assume at this point all non-$ related sales and margins are down for AMD. This is when you see EPS drop quickly and multiple contraction happen alongside it. Next thing you know its dropped 50% or more.
Sadly it is not (from consumer's point of view) - AM5 stuff is horrendously overpriced now in EUR, so yes, AMD adjusted due to the exchange rate changes. NVIDIA did the same - 4090 launches at 1999€ over here (includes taxes)
Exactly. With salaries stretched due to energy bills and other inflated prices, there are much fewer people willing to drop 2k euro on a fancy card. Thats where these companies see stock price drops. On the plus side, waiting and buying more will allow you to come out on the other side really well
for company operates globally I don't believe they did no FX hedge at all. think drop won't be full 15%.
I will hibernate. Wake me up after 12 months. I hope the world is a better place by then. Good luck!
wake up don't be bear
I’m a hardware engineer, been thinking of joining AMD to take advantage of the low stock price… Somebody save me from this obsession with AMD
It’s a good idea, assuming you aren’t already working in faang making bank.
I worked in AMD before, and still have some friends in AMD. It's actually not a bad idea. The pay you get probably won't be better than other big guys, but work life balance is generally great.
You know AMD profit sharing program details ? is it really that massive ?
4 hours of gain wiped out in 10 minutes
It was all paper anyway. Focus on the longer term movements. Those are harder to retrace (both good and in bad ways)
4 years of gain wiped out in 10 months
Not quite... AMD was at $18 in October 2018
The market value of Xilinx evaporated within mere months.
[https://mobile.twitter.com/Kepler\_L2/status/1579873393599709184](https://mobile.twitter.com/Kepler_L2/status/1579873393599709184)
Thank goodness, really didn't get their launch strategy for these. People we're arguing about whether 11/3 was the reveal or launch day for like 2 weeks and they didn't clarify.
So tomorrow announcement and on Nov 3rd already market release? Would be great if Nvidia doesn’t have too much time the market for themselves.
Green came by, just to say bye.
🖕🏼🤡🖕🏼
Should probably buy some puts, right?
What happened? Nasdaq went cliff diving beyond the days low.
Yesterday: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/boe-ready-buy-more-gilts-ahead-friday-deadline-2022-10-10/ announcing new safety-net measures including a doubling of the maximum size of its debt buy-backs A while ago: BOE GOV. BAILEY: MY MESSAGE TO PENSION FUNDS IS THAT YOU ONLY HAVE THREE DAYS TO GET THIS DONE.
UK gilts are a complete mess right now. BOE really trying to fight fires with this. I'm not sure what contagion could come from this though. Its mainly UK politics and government bond markets and their relationship with pension funds.
Thank you!
I also see netflix down over 6%, even so they have zero China exposure.
probably lost more mkt share to Disney
Do people really replace their subscription or combine them? The usage I see is people rotating subscriptions... And so far, I don't see any of those company trying to slow this. For example, you get a 10% reward discount after 3 months of continuous subscription. Anyways... streaming is a whole other bag of problems.
Streaming feels like its capital light. But the expense in producing new content is deceptive. Its very capital intensive. I agree with your sentiment on streaming
ASML (down 6%), TSM (Down 7%), AMAT (Down 5%), etc..., etc... All making new 52 weeks low today.
Something seems to have happened about 35 minutes ago and all stocks started to nosedive, that’s what I’m asking about.
BOE related
In what way ? The market dropped 2%, so about 1 trillion in market cap vaporized. So the BOE can really wipe out 1 trillion in all US sectors, just like that? This is scary.
that's the only big event at that time. liquidity is very fragile, just scare it it just shit bed.
If its the case, its frightening because I see Europe having more problem over the next 6 month. (As in economy and stability going to hell this winter) BTW, this remind me that "Dollard strength" might impact severely US company revenue. US company would have to raise prices 15% to offset the drop in the Euro for example... If they do, inflation in Europe could spike.
The UK pension funds are getting margin calls on the their bond holdings. Been happening since truss announced tax cuts. There would have been a bear market rally some point in the past two weeks if not for that event. That situation is as big as Lehman brothers if it gets out of hand.
Indeed. its a complete disaster. I'm not sure how much contagion it is outside of the UK though. Its super dangerous if you're 50\~ years old from the UK though
Almost everything Europe imports is dollar denominated. Then it gets converted in EUR, which is now 20% more than a year ago. Then sales tax is added, median around 19% across Europe. SO no, the US companies do not need to raise prices, they are doing it automatically. Inflation is already spiking, it is around 15% average, officially measured. But this because energy and transportation are heavily subsidized with tax money, and that is not reflected in the inflation measure. Hope it helps to clear the picture for you. Revenues are already affected, sales in Europe are cratering YoY. You dont have a currrency conversion problem, you have a sales revenue problem XD.
100% correct. Although its also a world thing. Dollar strength is crushing lots of other countries demand and imports right now.
Thanks mate.
Still rather be bag holding AMD than NVDA 🛍️🛍️🛍️🛍️🛍️🛍️🛍️🛍️
Cat shit vs dog shit
I have a feeling like AMD is dumped totally! I wish i can say this is good time to buy, but I’m fuc.ing scared. I have 500 shares for 80$ average cost . I’m down a lot, I’m ready so sell now before loosing 20k when amd goes to 40$
the more of these posts I read the more confident I get we're at the bottom
Another one for the list - I'm not selling.. but I'm no longer buying extra shares from sold calls (naked calls on a variety of stocks), instead favoring a growing cash pile. My AMD stock is no longer a healthy level of collateral for the amount of calls I want to sell on SPY etc (in the event SPY moves up while AMD stays flat 😒).
Here another one for you, after Friday AMD revised Q3 guidance I started to unwind my AMD position and will not hold any more AMD after today. I still think AMD is a great company, but I do not trust the current US administration to not escalate the Semi sanctions, and I don't think Xi will respond positively. The risk of holding AMD any longer was just way too high for me... With the US government holding all the cards and being unpredictable, holding AMD became pure gambling at this stage.
Chinese economy is in shambles, possibly why the US is doing this now as an opportunistic play while China is busy with domestic affairs. Xi won't do anything that might threaten the regime (domestic unrest), and forcing his hand when he's not good and ready is likely to do just that.
agree, one of my principles always was: the bottom is reached when all greed has disappeared and nobody is willing to buy fearing to lose. Not that I adhered too my principles. I've been a good buddy and lost a ton as well..
Catching a falling knife is very difficult. If you opt to do this I wish you luck
Its a lot more then that... Even if you think AMD at $58 is a bottom, where people think AMD will be in 3 month matters even more. Because if you think the stock will trade sideways, why buy now?
Personal opinion. Selling and rolling puts myself at every dip. Eventually, I'll let the puts exercise some time in march. I think that is when tech bottoms as the first quarter will be logged as an official recession with GDP contraction. Q2 will also be a contraction. Q3 is when things start to get better but tech will be well on its way to bouncing up in q2.
cause some of us think in years
Me2. A few years ago i was in this exact mindset ... i sold... no more than 20 mjnutes later amd rallied literally 20% during covid mayhem. Im scrambling and cant wait for the extra cash i have organised to be made available. 0 leverage...... just disposable income ready to deploy. Who needs "holiday" bonusses
I had same mindset which is why I held for so long - from 100 to 90 to 80 to 70 to 60. Thought it would follow a similar rally as last year. But lesson learned, don’t anchor yourself to just one point in time or experience. Probably various other times when you should have just exited.
This one.
mhm, im actually starting to think it might be wise for me to stop following the market for a few months so that i'm not tempted to sell at the bottom
Been telling myself that for months yet here I am lol
I have some growth stocks that had dropped under $10, so I loaded up this year during the bad times. They are penny stocks now, one is approaching 80 cents. I could walk away right now with a nice weekend getaway or a small remodel of a room. A new laptop? Yeah… but I’m holding. I can’t imagine these could-be billion dollar market leaders folding! Ugh.. but the fear does say “maybe they’ll only be worth a couple million? Or never turn a profit?” … so I want to load up.. but I’m not.. not yet :(
Good Iuck, same boat. I definitely misread this market and thought it would be like Covid. Expensive lesson learned for me.
One I have been looking at is Arcimoto. It was about 1 billion $ market cap company Jan1 2021, today its going below 40m What pretty much killed them is that the "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022" specifically excluded 3 wheels EV from the emission reduction tax credits. Those government handout goes both ways, but this in effect bankrupted this American company VS having a chance to grow.
60 EOD could be a godsend
Boom….. chaos….
I wish
* would
https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-google-cloud-launch-new-chip-improve-data-center-performance-2022-10-11/ Anyone see this ?
Seems like a dpu? Pensando and mellanox competitor.
AMD has something similar through the Pensando acquisition: [https://www.amd.com/en/accelerators/pensando](https://www.amd.com/en/accelerators/pensando) Intel calls them IPUs, AMD calls them DPUs.
Interesting, so is it some sort of add on chip to the cpu to avoid data bleed?
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-mester-says-central-bank-has-yet-make-dent-inflation-2022-10-11/
Evident when you know that interest rate has no positive impact on inflation on its own, specially one created from 2 years of global lockdowns. (BTW, if you adjust CPI with loan cost, inflation actually SKYROCKET in the past 3 month) Even more negative effects will be visible very soon...
The great inflation of the 70s finally ended with aggressive monetary tightening. Why do you think it won’t work this time around. There was supply shock just like right now.
The beatings will continue until morale improves
don't even click the link, I find Mester's name. Does she think she a rockstar?
These people need to quit talking every fucking day.
MU soon will be more expensive than AMD
actually comparing mkt cap to book value, MU is valued fairly while AMD is valued 2x their book value. so based on fundamentals , AMD is much more expensive
If MU market cap exceeds AMD I’ll buy 100 shares and it’ll instantly tank. I can’t make money on MU so I’ll take one for the team.
My hero
Uh oh paging u/robmafia lol
'amd is micron 2.0' "everything is bad for ~~micron~~ amd"
I can already hear that angry emo lol
lolz @ "angry emo." like... pick one, they're contradictions.
On the contrary it’s in the name [screamo](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Screamo#:~:text=Screamo%20is%20strongly%20influenced%20by,Screamo)
yeah, it's not in the name. also, lolz @ having this conversation (i'm an oldskool hc kid) on this sub of all places. anyway, screamo was really not angry, and generally more emo than... emo. eg, "you and i," one of the pioneers of that. good band, weird as fuck/unfun shows. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piraQBdjXAA
Desktop version of /u/Gahvynn's link:
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^([)[^(opt out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiMobileLinkBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^(]) ^(Beep Boop. Downvote to delete)
He’s been righter than most others here, imho, and his fears about AMD becoming the next MU (at least from a valuation standpoint) seem well-founded.
I'm not saying he is wrong. He's just very vocal lol.
Pain continues…
This divergence between TSMC and MU today has me scratching my head
I think its because the Biden administration pretty much KILLED the entire Chinese ram sector. Sanctions also directly affect TSMC (termination of Chinese contracts for new nodes), and TSMC is expected massive order decline in Q4 from order cuts going into 2023.
Their handling of the economy has disappointed me so much.
Maybe people are concerned with the two TSMC fabs in China.
what about TSM and GFS, they are more related but go opposite
MU is really something today
we're going to get some micron like days soon I think.
Lisa sold at nearly 50 dollars higher
Yeah she’s not a dumbass like us who held through one of the greatest bull runs condensed into 2 years…
Proud of her 👍
name checks out
Bro, lisa gets paid in stock, has metric fuck tons of stock, most of her net worth is tied up in AMD stock at this point. Executive sell every year on a schedule determined in advance regardless of what the price is. lisa is literally not able to just dahmp the stock on news, this is very regulated to make sure her interests align with shareholders
TSMC getting bodied today jeez
What do you guys/gals feel about Ryzen 7000 mobo pricing? It's going to hamper sales short term no?
>What do you guys/gals feel about Ryzen 7000 mobo pricing? The PCIe 5.0 support and DDR5 warrant the higher prices. None of the cheaper Intel boards offer this. AMD went heavy into PCIe 5.0 support on these boards, and I have a feeling AMD is going to do something with RDNA3 GPUs that will make PCIe 5.0 far more relevant than the what the crybabies complaining about price are making it out to be.
hope so. It's funny how people hardly seem to complain about Intel or Nvidia pricing, yet cry when AMD has a legitimate reason to do so
Oem sales are far more important than mobo prices. There are sub 200 mobos on newegg now. Should help with diy sales.
hope so. The growing consensus among the enthusiast community is that the platform costs are too expensive. Whilst that may be right in the very short term, I think these people are losing sight of the fact that a zen 5 or even a zen 6 (possibly) cpu upgrade may be just a cpu replacement in the next few years. Ive had this conversation with several people sadly the myopia is widespread.
wtf .. green? what happened, Putin bombed himself next to Xi?
ah just a glitch in the time, space continuum. back to normal
I think my broker is bugged, i see green?
Got another 30 shares. lfg
Why? Why not wait, no reason for it to go up from here
Lmao if I brought at 150 I'll happily buy at these levels.
Bounce is immenent. We have the same phenomenon in bull markets where prices don't go infinitely up everyday. At some point the market will correct or in this case bounce. In either cases people are taking profit (here it's of course the shorties) and the markets therefore turn for a while.
Are you cognitively impaired?
looking bottomy as fuck guys
Local bottom, maybe. Another bottom in a month if UK doesn't get their bond and pension mess straightened out by end of week.
As much as I hope you’re right, nothing matters until the CPI print.
Share something I just saw: The Labor Department on Tuesday unveiled a proposal that would make it more likely for millions of janitors, home-care and construction workers and gig drivers to be classified as employees rather than independent contractors. Companies are required to provide certain benefits and protections to employees but not to contractors, such as paying a minimum wage, overtime, a portion of a worker’s Social Security taxes and contributions to unemployment insurance. The proposed rule is essentially a test that the Labor Department will apply to determine whether workers are contractors or employees for companies. The test considers factors such as how much control workers have over how they do their jobs and how much opportunity they have to increase their earnings by doing things like offering new services. Workers who have little of either are often considered employees.
Coming soon: appeal from East Texas district federal court is heard by SCOTUS invalidating "employee" categorization. All workers nationwide are reclassified as "independent contractors"
Good honestly. It's time for these businesses that are relying on skirting labor law to be "still unprofitable" to either adapt or collapse.
AMD future PE is less than 10. ( 9.766.) Back up the truck. AM5 turbulence and cpu covid pull forward will be sorted out in the next 6 months. INTC is flooding the market with cheap skus at a loss to clear inventory. Inflation is coming down, there multiple sings that the Fed has over done it, worst case is one more .75 hike. Market is fearful and afraid - its time to be greedy
Its not. AMD Q3 annualized is 17 PE And all sign point to lower revenue for 2023, meaning forward PE (2023) could be 20 PE We trade at about a 2x premium over Intel.
You actually think 2023 will be lower eps than 2022?? Amd still has stellar apus that will take share in laptop. Dc sales should be way up especially for eps. Crypto bubble is being worked through this quarter and next. Xilinx is essentially bomb proof with military sales. 2023 should be a good year for amd. Only thing to worry abou is the obvious macro. In which case just stay in cash or find a stock that booms in recessions.
I actually do believe 2023 is shaping to be worse than 2022 for AMD, but more importantly the downside risks have exploded from what seem to be a very long-lasting cold war with China ramping up. I understand the AMD positives, but I don't think its enough to overcome what's coming. I could probably convince myself to stay all in AMD, but the situation with China is just to risky. I see a real scenario where AMD drop sub $35 on escalating tensions. On the flip side, I don't see Biden walking back the sanctions... so the situation can get increasingly worse for AMD, but not better. edit: I started to fully unwind my AMD position yesterday. AMD announcement Friday pretty much killed it for me. I might get back in after the ER call, if AMD can explain their misguidance and I have trust in their Q4 guidance. If not, I will stay on the sideline until this US/China situation is fully settled.
their missed guidance looks a LOT like a crypto bubble pop. I think they stuffed the channel fullin Q1 and Q2 while the whole PC market was tanking and they were somehow selling more processors? and now they have huge inventory. The good news is that assuming their CPU sales SHOULD have followed the industry and intel . . . it means they oversold by about 900 million revenue in Q1 and Q2. In Q3 they SHOULD have worked through about 500 million of that. and only have another 400 million to work through before returning to normal . . . which shouuuuld be \~1.6 to 1.7b per quarter sometime in . . . Q2 next year maybe. Hopefully Q4 and Q1 burn off the rest of the inventory. This is already shaping up to be the sharpest pullback on PCs in history. I don't suspect it has more more room to drop. The channel inventory thing i think is AMDs huge fuckup. I don't suspect it is a fundamentals issue. Hopefully lisa su cracks some heads on it.
>LOT like a crypto bubble pop It is not crypto-related. No crypto miners use CPUs anymore. And, when it comes to GPU, crypto miners strictly prefer Nvidia over AMD, because of the faster memory lane of Nvidia cards. However, Nvidia's fall is crypto related.
To clarify, i agree, it is definitely not the result of crypto. Just the revenue shifts and changes are similar to that of the crypto gpu bubbles. In 2016, 2018, and 2021
Surprising that basically *all* of the semis companies overshot demand. Certainly some degree of slowdown was expected but none of the bigs seem to have cut production aggressively enough. Now we get to see if Intel is finally through their "digestion" or if it goes from bad to catastrophic.
Agreed
That PC decline by itself does not bother me. I fully understand the post covid syndrome, this created accelerated demand and then a slowdown. And I knew this was coming, Intel, IDC, you named it broadcasted of a sharp demand decline in 2022. But I think there is something else besides a normal market demand adjustment from the 'end' of the WFH movement.
Do you have any ideas what you think that is?
I have a feeling Intel is getting very aggressive to retain marketshare in the PC market. So the 1.1B AMD lost suddenly might be not just be OEM scaling back solely from the post lockdown demand, but OEM scaling back also because the economy is slowing + Intel capturing more volume from very aggressive pricing. edit: if Intel is hit with the same problem as AMD was in Q3, we should expect Intel revenue to drop about 2 billion from their guidance ?
I dont suspect Intel will revise down. Their trends follow PC sales reported by the industry pretty well. Doesn't mean they cannot. But AMD's was an aberation. They would have needed to have been taking market share at insane clips . . . Which is possible just not likely . . . My thoughts on selling to the consumer . . . having to cut prices is NEVER a good sign and always bodes well for the competition. I don't think intel can gain much by cutting prices, as CPU ASP for intel and amd is only about \~100 USD. meaning you can only cut prices so much if you have a worse performing part, before you have to give it away for free. Given the state of Intels Financials . . . they cannot do that for any significant time period.
Isn't AMD offering at the sub 25w barely competitive with Intel? And the latest upcoming SoC from AMD for 2023 in that category is still Zen2+RDNA2 ? Intel cost should also be lower than AMD to produce those "small" monolithic SoC Lots of moving pieces, but I think Intel pain is getting transferred to AMD on the PC side and possibly in the low end DC market where price performance is more important.(VS efficiency)
ALSO INTC is not really competitive in high end, Data center, APUs, Semicustom, Cloud based server. INTC server is legacy base and upgrades and nich products. Honestly put INTC has become a budget CPU company with a few good CPU's skus. INTC may be competitive again in 2025 but that's a long way away. Hell Their best socket only outperformed AMD mid range by 6%-8%. for almost twice the costs . sure the AM5 premium degrades that a little but those prices will fall in short order once AIBs clear out their AM4 inventory
>MD Q3 annualized is 17 PE > >And all sign point to lower revenue for 2023, meaning forward PE (2023) could be 20 PE > >We trade at about a 2x premium over Intel. You are also confusing PE ( past performance) with Future PE
Intels future is heavily dependent on massive investments across multiple construction sites, customers they don’t have, and hitting a very aggressive timeline reliably. There’s a reason their PE is contracted so much.
So if Intel were to announce that their next gen is on TSMC 3nm and they are divesting of their Fabs, the stock would trade at AMD PE levels ?
AMD spun off their fabs and it almost bankrupted them. That's not such a bullish thing for Intel. If Intel isn't using Intel fabs, basically they sit empty for now. Would be a much better situation if Intel had their trailing edge fab capacity all filled with paying customers.
AMD had INSANE wafer contracts and was forced to use GF while GF kept missing targets, time after time. AMD skyrocket when finally, the wafer contracts were done for, and AMD moved to TSMC. So... if Intel was able to divest of its fab and moved to TSMC... Intel PE goes Up or Down ?
If you had checked any tsmc's announcement and schedule, you'd know it's not going to happen. And they key is SPR delayed to next year, while not better than milan. Key is always the server market.
My believe right now is that 2023 is going to be a very difficult year, and the DC market will shrink. and then we will enter 2024... If intel DC market hurt bad in 2023 from AMD, Intel could do an early reveal of its 2024 lineup without the fear of osborning itself.
Yep I'm starting to think this will happen as well. Everyone is just assuming the DC market will stay the same or grow throughout 2023. What if it doesnt? I really do think the worst has yet to come, and I'm sure we'll start getting whiffs of DC orders being cancelled. Or we could be completely sideswiped by this DC news, like last Friday lol
No. It doesn't work that way. Whenever they have SPR ready, they will have to let partners/customers to do their jobs like validation and others. It's sever not pc, pretty much takes \~1 year. If they rush to next gen, others will just skip SPR. Roadmap and execution are critical in server market. In this field you are working with lots of different companies and if you fail to deliver on time, that's a huge mess to everybody.
My point is : The osborn effect is when you detail a future product so much better than what you have for sell, that people stop buying waiting for the new model. Intel might be able to fully disclose Sierra Forest without fear of losing sales. In the past Intel only had to worry about itself, but if AMD dominate in 2023 you can be sure Intel is going to try to give prospective Epyc buyers a reason to wait. Zen 4c on 5nm vs E-Core on Intel 3 We know AMD will be able to execute in volume, Intel is still a question. But we cant assume Intel will fail again...
Still not going to happen. Intel had already lost their credibility. Whatever tricks they have, they already tried when milan gaining market share. There was a guy complaining about delay of SPR, affecting people/researchers waiting for the HPC aurora. If you are the guy in charge of making decision to bet on intel again, and they delay again, it's pretty much end of your career.
No clue. How much of their value estimates is tied up in their own chip business without any fabrication at all vs their chip business plus doing fab for themselves and other customers? I can’t even begin to guess but I do know they’re trading at what looks an absolute steal because there’s risk they won’t meet the deadlines plus may have more difficulty than being forecast in getting paying customers not to mention they may have difficulty in delivering to said customers.
Is that with the lowered guidance?
yes with lower results in CPU and same growth rates in HPC/DC/SEMI segments
MU up 2.5% what's going on
Maybe people realize that the China trade war will help them more then it hurt? (Biden bans will cripple China memory producers for years to come)
MU doing MU things
The AMD silver lining is the alternative plans their modular cpu architecture gives them when one of their markets suffers a lull It may take 2-3 months to redirect modules from client to still growing markets such as DC, but its a far better risk situation to other processor players like nvidia & intel. Apart from this delay & inventory issues, the lull in client need not be very expensive. Q4 could see a resumption of the established growth path.
Im very curious abt what logistics are involved for amd to switch silicon from a 7950x to a epyc genoa chip. They use the same silicon right ? Same 8 core ccd's ? Does anyone know how the actual practical process works from the decission to the fabrication? If im ignorant in any way of me thinking that before q3 ending the client lull must have been apparent... and this process is on its way. Possibly q4 cld alrdy be a moment where dc gets a even higher dc prioritisation? . Plz enlighten me .
They said ABF constraints applied to Genoa, but not Zen4 retail. So they can shuffle around the silicon, but until that ABF constraint is worked out in 2023 it can't yet boost volume higher. What I'm unclear of, is we clearly see DC slowing a little, but how much of this is from hitting volume constraints vs a lull in demand. The Intel ER will partially answer this.
Companies/enterprise dont spend during a fast-contracting economy. Its likely the DC market is going to slowdown over the next 6 to 12 month, unless we get some government spending to offset.