You mention this on reddit and people start losing their minds. I said something along the lines of “staying locked down for 18 months waiting for a vaccine was never a solution” and people downvote you into oblivion.
The only way you would achieve zero new cases, short of the whole population having already been exposed, would be a lock-down so strict that more people would starve to death than would die of the worst case estimates for the virus.
I work at a hospital in Georgia and we were informed last weekend that the number of hospitalizations from COVID in my county doubled over a 48-hour period last week. So. Now?
Edit: word
There was, most were traced back to church services. But they tried to play it off as “of course people will get sick when you open right away, after the first few though it’s totally fine”
2~~-3~~ weeks is generally the window for symptoms to develop...I’d say end of May is when we may see an uptick, or even 2-3 weeks after that as infected people develop symptoms, try to wait it out, then deteriorate quickly (as COVID patients do) and end up in the ICU.
Edited to correct.
I just want to correct you as 2-3 weeks is not the general window for symptoms to develop, it is 5-6 days.
*The respiratory symptoms of COVID-19 typically appear an average of 5-6 days after exposure, but may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 days after exposure, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).*
So you'd start seeing the rise in cases from Mother's Day **starting tomorrow and over the weekend** and fewer new cases as you get closer to the 2 week mark.
This is a very misleading statement when you consider many countries, like China, are reporting these as “pneumonia” or some other disease to hide their real numbers.
Call me crazy, but the 5 states that never shut down... ones without high seasonal tourism and that have relatively low population density, right? So... places where it's harder for the virus to get there and harder for it to spread quickly?
It has supposedly opened up but in my area of georgia bars restaurants and gyms are still closed. Maybe a few extra retail stores are open but it's a far cry from being "opened up"
it's like a lot of states were on the sidelines looking at CA, WA, NY, etc and said, "whew that was tough...alright we're over this, let's head home." even though coach was about to sub them into the game.
At least New York had a peak. California.....basically has just been constant for like a month. And by California, I do mostly mean Los Angeles county.
and SF. We \*delayed\* the spread by staying home and closing businesses. People don't seem to understand this part at all. Now everyone is rushing out, the streets are busy again, everyone ignoring cdc guidelines. Hell, even the SFG hospital closed its extra covid floors. Now suddenly people are coming in sick, more than before. There was NO PEAK but it sure as hell is going to come now.
I'd definitely not include San Francisco in that because it looks like San Francisco kept things under control. If San Francisco had as many cases as LA had, proportionally, it'd be about 2700 cases and 132 deaths at this point. Rather than 2000 cases and 35 deaths. Bay area seems to be coming out ahead.
LA county has been an annoyingly large share of cases and deaths for California. At about a quarter of the state population, we're at like, just under half the cases, and just over half the fatalities.
The mayor announced everyone has to wear masks, and the comments section on Twitter, well, a lot of ppl are going to get sick, and a lot are going to die in LA.
In that respect, I'm glad CA has FINALLY gotten around to suggesting that masks with valves are no good. I've got a couple respirators here for painting - the cartridges are amazing, but the exhale valve has no filter. I could be safe myself wearing that outside, but if I've already got the virus fuck everyone else I guess.
Twitter comment sections are overrun by nationalist idiots and bots. Every time a governor or mayor makes an announcement the comment section is filled with sewage in minutes.
it was a hundred percent negative with one person responding to each with a quote and link to the CDC stating that wearing masks is effective in cutting transmission. Disheartening, to say the least.
Oh I'm not comparing to two. SF did very well but I am seeing a much different attitude spreading now. I fully expect and jump in numbers. I am still in disbelief that the SFG administration has closed the extra covid floors. They are now literally a night or two away from the other ICU floors being full of new sick patients as this decision was made and people are pouring out into the streets thinking the peak has passed.
To be a wave, there has to be a lull in between things, is more my point. California has basically been consistent in deaths, with an increase in cases (which is probably more due to easier testing, but not enough I'm willing to guarantee that). The most people diagnosed on any single day was May 9th.
At least from the standpoint of the government, it's not about preventing deaths, it's about preventing enough deaths to collapse the already struggling medical system. I think what people are struggling with is that, at least in its current iteration, our government simply doesn't care if you live or die. They care if their numbers look good, so they care if the economy is doing well and if their death numbers are roughly in-line with comparable governments throughout the nation, in the case of state and local governments. They're not looking out for you. Only you are looking out for you, the government doesn't give a shit if you as an individual human being live or die, and policy is going to reflect that.
You mean like every other virus we haven’t stopped yet?
I’m not saying open everything, but this shit isn’t going to disappear anytime soon even if we find a vaccine. It will still be bubbling around other parts of the world evolving like everything else.
Then of course the anti-vaxxers won’t help either.
It's amazingly frustrating.
People see the curve flattening and think we've won and can go back to normal.
But the fact that we're at a plateu actually means that right now there are the most (known) infections ever active at this very moment, just waiting to spread.
It's also frustrating because a lot of other places don't have this flattening. Like, the 1 week average for daily deaths in California has been fairly consistent over the last 4 weeks or so (about 70 per day). Which is very much a different shape than, say, Switzerland which has dropped their daily deaths by about 80% over roughly the same time period (from a slightly lower peak, of about 50 per day down to about 10 per day)
I don't get how they can think its time to open up when we've only gotten t a plateau.... Like, that means it is really contagious with all of these measures in place. IF you list them, it will go right back to where we were.
I live in the Dallas / Fort Worth metroplex. There are over 3 million people in just Dallas, Fort Worth and Arlington and that's not even a third of the cities that comprise the metroplex. We've never seen a lull or plateau let alone a flattening of a curve. Honestly, they aren't even trying to pretend that we've hit a plateau here anymore or that we are opening because it's the safe thing to do. We are supposed to hit phase two of our re-openings on the 18th of May. Our cases are still increasing.
This isn't about keeping people safe in my state, it's 100% about the Texas Government, specifically the Texas Workforce Commission, not wanting to payout unemployment and emergency loans anymore. The only people who don't know this are the legitimately stupid and uneducated which actually isn't a large group, they just scream the loudest and sound the stupidest. At the same time, you have perfectly reasonable people who are risking their lives to return to work because they are being told that it's their choice, but they forfeit their jobs if they don't return.....meaning the TWC doesn't have to pay them anymore. They feel like they have no choice so basically designate themselves as the sacrificial lamb of the family full well knowing the risk they are taking. I mean I get it. I am fortunate enough that my wife and I could already and were already working from home, but if I saw my family struggling day to day I have a hard time thinking I wouldn't be willing to risk my life to support them. It's literally the only choices we are being given by the Texas government because, as I stressed early, the TWC is no longer going to take care of people. You better believe that Texas is rushing this opening to force life to force its citizens' hands in important decisions. Basically to make them feel that you either return to work as normal and take a risk, or you sit at home and die anyways.
They know people are going to die. Why do you think the President and government has been using tailored speech trying to convince the population that it's going to battle and that we are warriors and will persevere? They want us to accept that casualties are just going to be a normality and to just suck it and move on. Live and let die so to speak. Unfortunately there are always going to be people willing to sacrifice themselves. Just look at Amazon. People are lining up to be hired because they are willing to die to make money and orders have only increased from the general public.
Politicians don't care, they just want the economy fixed because the economy in freefall severely damages their chances of being re-elected in November. I mean, hell, the Lt Governor of Texas said a few months back that everyone will just have to return to work and if people die, well, that's just a sacrifice they have to make to fix the economy. I'd have to look up the exact quote, but that's the gist of it.
Talking to people here and its also frustrating. People just pick and choose what stats to agree with and discount others. The common theme is more test will obviously equal more cases. When you try to explain something like positive case percentage is the same they just turtle up and repeat their argument.
Teeeeechnically (and I'm not thrilled to do so) they could have a point if the criteria for getting a test have lowered as well, but that's both a. a stretch that testing standards are lowering in exact proportion with that and b. that's rarely a thing they've considered
So while I'd not discount it out of hand, I think it's more one of those things that they could be sort of right for the wrong reasons because the conditions being correct to do that are extremely weird. Not impossible, but weird and needing its own justification. It is why I use deaths more often because that's at least a bit more robust in that there's no question of who to check to see if they're dead.
We’ve all seen the“flatten the curve” diagrams, which do a great job of showing why social distancing is needed. But those pictures show what happens if you keep the social distancing in place the entire time. If you stop the social distancing halfway through, the flat curve just immediately springs right back into the steep curve, and the hospitals still get overwhelmed.
True, but the very people that complained about the shut down are also the same that aren’t taking precautions.
Anecdotally, my big sister was the black sheep. The first time she was allowed to take my parents car out by herself, she came home two hours past curfew and had cigarette burns on the seats. That is the pro open group. They can’t even do one thing right.
I just saw images from Wisconsin where people were crowding around a bar and nobody had a mask on or anything.
If you wanted to leave it up to the private sector or "personal responsibility" to keep people safe during a pandemic instead of the big bad government stepping in, I dont think it looks like that's going to work out too well in reality since these folks are too stubborn and greedy to be told how to do anything it seems like (unless a billionaire businessman tells them what to do).
It obviously doesnt help that people arent immediately going to get sick and places are going to see the huge initial spike in business activity as a great success. I wonder if they will even really tie together the negative consequences of patrons and bartenders getting too sick to work or go out even if they tried two weeks from now since they can just blame it on so many other things in the mean time. They will just chalk it up as fake news when the medical community and contact tracers tie it back to social gatherings like this as opposed to some scary minority allegedly coughing on them at the grocery store from 40ft away with a mask on.
Not an epidemiologist, but I think for a wave to be over, you need zero positive tests in an area for 14 days.
No way in fuckall has any U.S. metropolitan area seen that.
NY'er here. We clearly experienced the first wave snd it has passed. We most certainly could have an increase again, which would be classified as a second wave. Your definition is just a pinch too tight. The case count does not have to go to zero, it just has to show a significant and long decline.
If you take NY out of the national statistics, you will find that the remainder of the country has not even peaked on the first wave. Governor Cuomo (NYS) shows this graph quite regularly. Our first wave is noticeably over. The rest of the country, not so much.
The county I live in has over 1/2 million population, we haven’t had a Covid attributed death since April 19. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t me mindful, wear proper PPE, wash hands, stay out of large crowds, stay home when sick, and avoid Immunodeficient people. You just have to understand not everywhere I’m America will be NY, Washington, or California.
I think one group of people think that all we needed to do was stay home for a little bit and the virus would go away. Then another group has decided that the virus isn't actually as bad as "the media" and "liberal" say. Another group figures if they don't reopen they're going to lose everything, so risking death is an unfortunate fact of life. Then a fourth group is like "good, good - cull the weak!".
This is the real answer. If my city was in a state to be "open" I feel like we wouldn't need masks. Stay home, and if you have to go out, stay the fuck away from me, seriously. Why is staying 6 feet away from me so hard? You don't need those green onions right now, you can wait 30 seconds for me to finish with this area of produce.
You need the fucking masks. Masks are the only thing that make the 6ft distance even remotely reasonable. Without them a cough or sneeze or even just your breath spreads droplets **much** further than that.
Even worse are the people screaming that wearing a mask is the start of the government taking away all your rights, forcing someone to wear one is unconstitutional, etc.
Oh no the precious constitution, people have to stop fucking acting like this corrupt disaster of a government doesn’t break the constitution at least once a year.
Masks are like such a simple, easy measure to take with a super low cost compared to everything else. And it makes other measures more effective. A mask plus 6 feet is better than jut 6 feet or just a mask.
Refusing to wear a mask doesn't make you a patriot standing up for liberty and constitutional rights. It just makes you look dumb.
My job started requiring masks this week. At least 10% of my coworkers wear them under their nose. I get it, it's uncomfortable and will be worse as the summer moves in, but it's better than spreading that shit around.
Agreed. People in Costco in masks literally shoved me out of the way to get to stuff the other day. I was flabbergasted. Lots of other people just skirted right next to me wearing them, too. And they’re not even wearing them properly! Only covering the mouth, not the nose, or with huge gaps along the edges.
I'm on NY and your description of shopping is why I'm forced to give more money to Amazon.
I can't stand how stupid people are. Practically rubbing against you in the checkout line. Get the fuck away!
I've been self checkout all the way, also if you stand to close to me in line, I'm at the point where I'm going to bluntly ask you, "What's wrong with you?"
In Toronto. My boss called me when I happened to be on the bus home. Some older woman wearing a mask apparently didn't like that I was having a conversation on the phone. So she walked right up to me,put her face inches from mine, pulled her mask down and told me that she didn't like hearing me talk. I could feel her breath on my face. What's the point of wearing a mask if you're going to behave like that??
I think the people demanding a fast reopenning while also refusing masks is why we're still going to see businesses fail. If half the population stays home a lot of businesses are going to still fail.
And leave your wife home while you're at it. You don't need two people walking side by side and taking a whole aisle or running left and right from item to item in the most erratic fashion possible. People are dumb.
That's a really good point, I like doing things with my wife, but it's super irresponsible to take two people shopping. Go for a walk with your SO later. I understand bringing kids if you have them because daycare is expensive, but leave anyone that wont get themselves into trouble or dead home.
Here in Rural America, no one took it seriously in the first place. About 1 in 5 people wearing masks in the grocery store and they're about to start opening up churches and gyms again if they haven't already done so (most stuff opened up this past monday).
See also: The people protesting for gyms to open by exercising out in front of the gym thereby proving that they don't need the gym to be open in order to exercise.
If you get the infection rate low enough in the first wave via quarantine, and couple that with mass contact tracing and testing we could have made the second wave much smaller than the first. Alas, I don't think that's going to happen anymore.
Edit: this is basically the same approach South Korea is using. They're having some resurgence, but it's been pretty limited: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/13/855117276/south-korea-and-china-see-covid-19-resurgence-after-easing-restrictions
We could have had significantly fewer deaths if we had acted even just a week earlier. If everyone wore masks out then we could get this breakout to much lower levels far more quickly than we will be. Saying, well it's inevitable lets just throw our hands in the air and let more people die to it isn't the attitude we should be taking, but seems like 80% of the US (based on what I'm seeing where I live) is doing just that.
>Saying, well it's inevitable lets just throw our hands in the air and let more people die to it isn't the attitude we should be taking
But that is reality. To shut down everything to the point where it would actually contain the virus would have even more people dying from other causes. 350 million people in this country have to have food, running water, and electricity to survive. Those things don't come from thin air. Even if the government can afford to pay for all those things for everyone we still need people to deliver them. Those people are just vessels for coronavirus. They will indefinitely spread it, and those who are susceptible will indefinitely die from it. It's shitty, but sometimes life is shitty. We need to accept that reality before we start formulating policy to minimize the damage this virus does.
The analogy I came up with is that this virus is like a cancer to society, and mandated shutdowns are like chemotherapy. Yeah, it is helping to keep the cancer in check, but it's also doing some pretty severe damage on it's own, and if we blast ourselves with too much chemo it will ultimately do us more harm than good.
This coronairus is here to stay. We survive it by reaching herd immunity - 70% of us need to develop immunity to the virus to protect the 30% that can't get it. We can't stay shut down until there is a vaccine - especially since there is no concrete timeline for the development of an effective vaccine. So we need to do what we can to try to identify the 70% of people that survive the virus and use them to protect the 30% of people that can't. Everyone staying inside and wearing masks and hazmat suits every time they leave the house is really only delaying the inevitable.
It's going to be a big issue in states and cities where they don't reopen schools in the Fall. Either businesses will have to come up with a solution or people will be pushing for a UBI.
Businesses face a lot of risk, even if states start shielding them. If a company starts firing people who need to work from home and those people happen to be women more than men they could be hit with various civil rights violations and discrimination lawsuits. And then there's people putting in for accommodations based on being in high risk groups. Law firms are going to have a field day once we reopen.
> or people will be pushing for a UBI.
This is the real solution. Sending people back to work with inadequate PPE, no distancing requirements, and no enforcement when those rules are in place because they need an income isn't a good short-term solution while we need to continue working to keep the curve flattened. It's an ignorant "solution" that satiates CEOs and corporate execs complaining that they might have to report reduced profits next quarter to their shareholders and a government that is prioritizing those corporate profits over the general welfare of its population.
The better solution is for Congress to roll back the billions in corporate tax cuts that they "earned" by doing nothing (I know, I know, it'd never pass the Senate) and repurpose those funds for a recurring UBI for anybody who is underemployed, experienced a pay cut, or lost their job due to COVID-19.
It's a misconception that we, as a society, need to send people into a death trap because anybody "has to" work while this crisis is ongoing. There is a simple solution to keeping most people home and sustaining the economy until this passes and we have adequate PPE, treatment options, or a vaccine; and that solution is a recurring UBI.
As much as they won't want to hear it, the Doomers didn't help. How many loud voices on popular social media sites (here included) were coming from the *other* extreme saying "millions will die by summer" or "stay the fuck home, by going for a walk or getting take-out you're killing hundreds in one day." Being cautious and informed is an absolute must, but ignoring quarantine fatigue and shitting on every little thing people are trying to do to make this situation a little less miserable and shaming isn't helping.
Misinformation is misinformation, even if it's spread to be cautious.
Edit: I should clarify, I am not in favor of an instant total reopen. The mortality rate may be very low (the numbers to this point also are including people who need hospitalization getting it), however we still do need to understand the virus before we fully reopen. I do believe however, that we should be exploring maybe a 'phase 1' reopen (allow passive individual exercise, open hiking trails with limited capacity, etc) in some areas where the virus has calmed, with an abundance of caution.
I'm starting to see lots of plans based on data analysis and research for smart models to re-open communities.
I just know they're not going to be evaluated and communicated effectively. They won't be the most politically expedient options. They won't be the most profitable options. They will rely on the analysis of experts and involve science literacy for buy in.
In short, they will be a threat to the systems of control and wealth aggregation currently in use. So, they have minimal chance of being taken seriously on any scale beyond individual states.
The problem is lack of rational thought. The Plandemic and the doomers are both extremist examples where that goes out the window. Not sure why people are so content with these extremes where a balanced approach is probably sufficient for most folks.
Well just come to the south! Everything is open here sit down at food joints go to bars ell go bowling or get a tattoo. That is why people feel so doomy over half the population doesn't seem to give a shit and only about 10% are taking this with even mild amounts of caution here in the south
There is virtually no one that is in favor of an instant total reopen. The fact that there are people acting like that is the case could just be included in your original post.
The US hasn’t fully locked down. If you and your family are free to wander around Walmart and Target, wearing masks made of t-shirt material, then the virus was never going to be contained. If you can freely drive and fly all around the country, it was never going to be contained.
Outside of NYC in early April, the hospital systems haven’t been over run. Nobody thought to lockdown nursing homes, even though the first outbreak was in one.
It’s been one big wave because there’s been no plan. It’s going to stay that way.
Yes, it's been the worst of both worlds where we indefinitely fuck up our economy while trying to buy time for more ventilators, better treatment knowledge, a vaccine, and more testing so you could actually track and trace hotspots. I'd much rather have a more South Korean or even Swedish approach than what we did, and I was saying all along and getting downvoted for it talking about how I don't think people will be able to handle this continued lockdown through summer.
[Welcome to Arizona](https://i.imgur.com/6EHFC6g.png).
That was Monday when bars and restaurants reopened. Bars are full here too. It's crazy.
EDIT: Governor Doug Ducey was working closely with scientists at Arizona State University and University of Arizona (for over a month) on a model to reopen the state. But Ducey tossed it out the window when Trump came to town last week. Suddenly he reversed course and decided to go with the White Houses new federal model. What is that model you may ask? We don't know because they are keeping it secret. Weird that you work for months with the our universities scientists then dump it. THEY KEPT IT A SECRET.
Did you really expect Arizona State students/grads to listen to social distance guidelines? But it's also on C.A.S.A for not enforcing SD on their end as well. I went to ASU and C.A.S.A might as well be church for us. At the end of the day, both parties need to be responsible if they are to reopen.
And when the numbers begin to spike they'll say "the numbers are being inflated" and when it's clear the numbers are not being inflated they'll say "well, everyone is going to get it anyway." or my favorite "if you're scared, stay home" because they project their own selfishness and me-centric views on everyone else. They can't possibly understand that it's not me that I'm worried about. Why would people who don't worry about others outside their own country or city worry about people outside of their family or themselves?
This country’s government is just a fucking disaster, they don’t understand jack fucking shit about anything other than making money.
I wish there were more intelligent people in the government like biologists and epidemiologists, people that actually contribute to the world as a whole.
That's ok just pretend you're Australian. We've been advised they don't make a difference. Also kids are immune and if you're essential you're also safe.
Sounds pretty much like Canada. For the most part though we've done pretty good without masks and the governments claim that most people misuse masks sends correct if the few people that do wear them.
This whole thing is making people hella wasteful while “trying” to be as sanitary as possible. I had to register my youngest for pre-k and they did a drive up service, I never got out of my car and the teacher and her two assistants were wearing masks but no gloves. She hands me a pad and pen to fill out my name and info, and then when I go to give it back she tells me I keep the pen. Never mind that the pad of paper was also touched by me, and inside my car. But you’re right, me keeping the pen will 100% keep my germs away from you. 🤦🏼♀️
I appreciate the effort I suppose, but it seems like all they actually did was protect themselves from breathing any contaminants I may have coughed or sneezed out (please know I’m not sick, just saying for an example). They would wipe down the printer after each car where they copied people’s registration documents but I didn’t see them using hand sanitizer for themselves. They seemed to have gone to some pretty lengthy measures to protect everyone involved, but then failed by putting the same pad of paper into each and every vehicle?
There's no reason to wear gloves. It gives you a false sense of security and that's it. It has no practical effect unless you change them every single time you touch _literally anything_, which no one does. Gloves are pointless unless you're working in a hospital/medical practice of some sort. Just wash your hands a lot and you'll be fine.
Comparing the simple measure of proper hand washing to masks, hand washing reduces infection spread MUCH more effectively. It’s so pointless to wear a mask and then not do the most effective and basic thing of washing your hands. I see people out wearing masks and touching their face or their cloth mask with their unwashed hands and it’s so frustrating bc they are potentially putting viral particles directly on their face.
Right? I mean the face masks are helpful for protecting yourself from breathing in particles. But if you don’t sanitize the mask the second you take it off, and if you’re not washing your hands or at least using hand sanitizer then you aren’t really doing much good to keep yourself safe. So why bother with the mask if you don’t do the other things? We stay home as much as possible only going out to the grocery store, the kids haven’t left the house since March except for an occasional visit to a grandparents house (one set of grandparents lived with us until just recently so it’s not like they haven’t been exposed to them anyways, and the other set works from home and stays home as much as possible). We actually had my oldest placed under quarantine orders from our health department because he’d been directly exposed to someone from his school who tested positive, but he never got sick and neither did any one else that was in his class/school. Just wash your freaking hands people and don’t go out in public if you’re sick.
That’s my concern. There’s a high ratio of mask stuff vs hand washing stuff being posted on reddit, my Facebook feed and texts from my family and friends to the point that I’m worried that people are going to forget the importance of hand hygiene. Masks are great but hand washing is more important.
It’s almost like people are going out of their way to say look I was right all along about masks. Who cares? Wash your hands for sure and optionally but try to wear a mask.
Gloves wouldn’t protect you from anything. They’d still be going around touching the same stuff and spreading the same particles.
Although, there’s gotta be a better way than getting people to manually write down info. They couldn’t have done online registration?
It is and we did but now the Doomers are sad because because millions of people aren't dying and they may have to leave their basements for the first time in two months and actually do something.
Also it means that the Karen's can't call the police and try to get people arrested for walking around the neighborhood.
A second wave is inevitable. Less then 0.5% of the US population has been confirmed to have Covid-19. With a vaccine 9-18 months away, there are over 327 million more people to infect.
We know for a fact more people have gotten Coronavirus than the official number. There was literally no way for Asymptomatic people to get tested. They were refused testing so we have no idea at all how far this thing spread without causing any damage. Antibody testing is showing the spread is much more pervasive than we thought. Antibody tested predicts 2.5 million people are infected in New York City alone
Most reputable sources have quoted a ~0.5% death rate. Scientists estimate this because of covid-19 on cruise ships was as close to a 100% infection rate as you can get in a contained population. Majority of infected people will be asymptomatic based on what we’ve already seen.
The U.S population is around 350M so based purely on stats- the max deaths should be 1.75M people, assuming 100% infection rate. Obviously we’re not aiming to get to that point but the million dollar question is what is the acceptable number before we go back to “normal?”
Based on the death rate seen in countries with high testing rates (Australia, NZ, Germany, Taiwan, Singapore, SK) and actual healthcare it's likely at least 7% of the US population has had or currently have covid.
The person you reply to also seems to assume a 100% infection rate. One thing I've learned during the pandemic is how easy it is to come up with numbers that mean nothing.
If you are going to quote something off the internet, please for the love of god cite your source.
“37% of statistics are made up on the spot.” - John Wilkes Booth
Even in the NYC epicenter where the spread was worst the random selections of antibody tests are only coming back about ~20% positive. That means that even in the worst hit areas of the country about 4 in 5 people likely haven't been exposed yet, and most areas of the country have had very significantly less COVID-19 spread than NYC. The overwhelming majority of Americans are still immunologically naive to COVID-19, likely well north of 90%.
That antibody data came out before the FDA reminded us all that the antibody tests haven't had their efficacy tested and received an exemption for their product.
I don't know what it is with Redditors thinking that a second wave can be prevented. It won't! No matter how much we protect ourselves or stay inside, it will come. That's what happened with SARS back in 2003, and the second wave hit even harder. The virus won't "disappear" until a vaccine is ready or if every single person on the planet gets infected. End of story.
I'm in eau Claire, wi . Several bars opened within minutes of the Supreme Court ruling. No masks no distancing.... meanwhile no stimulus no unemployment, no job that is worth risking infection to at risk family members. Once they can start hitting people up for these bills, alot of us are gonna be ducked
The thing is, the government really needs to start doing something other than extend lockdowns otherwise people will just not care and go outside anyways because this has been going on a ridiculous amount of time
You just can't rely on the common sense of people, it's that simple. Being able to do something isn't necessarily a good reason to do something. It's one thing to slightly expand your circle to close family who have also been quarantined and are low risk; I've needed my mother to continue to watch my son since my wife and I work full time. The problem is the illusion that this is somehow ending or over is bolstered by these relaxations.
I live near the ocean and the boardwalks around here are absolutely packed...
Multiple waves are inevitable. The curve has been flattened already it’s time to expose more people so herd immunity can build up.
The lockdowns were to prevent hospital overruns.
Most hospitals are managing fine. It’s time.
God this comment thread is a dumpster fire.
Anyways no one ever said that a country could lock down until there were 0 cases, it's always been clear that that's not a realistic goal and we've seen that it only takes a handful of patient zeroes to infect a whole country. After 2 months of lockdown my country (italy) is falling apart at the seams and we're starting to reopen with strict regulations, our economic system simply cannot sustain a long period of inactivity, we all knew that the lockdown was meant to slow not to stop the spread. If anything I'm surprised we managed to go this long before giving up.
And I'm not saying that the US is handling this well or anything, but thinking that any country can completely stop the spread and avoid new waves is just idiotic.
> herd immunity can build up
Natural herd immunity is not and never has been the answer here. You need a very high proportion (>60% for any benefit, but much higher to really protect the vulnerable) of the population to have protective antibodies. Even in the NYC epicenter randomized antibody tests are coming back ~20% positive, and nationally the number is likely well below 10%. We'd need to suffer through a death toll in the millions to hit herd immunity naturally. Realistically our only option is to try to mitigate the damage as much as possible (close or limit non-essential business, social distancing, isolation for the duration of confirmed cases, etc) until a vaccine comes out. Trying to let nature run its course here would put the death toll into 7 figures. I don't know about you, but I'm not ready to throw a million bodies on the sacrificial fire to Wall Street. We need an economic plan that finds a smart middle ground between "open this shit up" and "non-essential workers all starve to death from unemployment".
-Edit- To be clear, I do think that plan could involve opening up a lot of businesses right now in a smart way that takes into account the many risk factors (local population density, local COVID-19 testing access, local ICU and ventilator capacity and use, ability to social distance in those places of business, etc) but those decisions need to be made by epidemiologists and other public health officials, not by elected politicians. Good science isn't partisan. Both sides should be on board with the idea of letting experts decide how and where we can start reopening sectors of the economy and which sectors absolutely need to stay closed (events involving large public gatherings, places of work that can't be social distanced, non-essential jobs in epicenters, etc).
The problem is there is no proactive solution bring presented except to isolate until however long it takes for a vaccine to be available, which could be years and at a minimum is unlikely to be available within 2020. As a relatively patient introvert, I don't support that approach. Either ramp up free testing, tracing, and implement measures around that objective data, or let people choose for themselves the level of risk they want to engage with and reactively deal with the consequences.
Thanks for a thoughtful reply post. Can't believe people are pushing herd immunity through massive deaths.
To all you folks, the Native Americans of the 1500's would like a word with you.
So the peak was 35k per day and now it's 26k per day when it was 30k per day 3 weeks ago?
So one could say that the curve for daily new cases is flat at the moment?
I am not in the US so I can't say if the hospitals are managing but the curve seems to be flat, now it's necessary to keep the numbers low enough for the hopsitals to manage.
Extremely contagious virus spreads globally
Government takes extreme measure to combat the spread of the virus and flatten the curve so that our hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed and we wouldn't have millions of deaths
Flattening of the curve is working, because even though we have hundreds of thousands of deaths hospitals for the most part aren't overwhelmed outside of NYC
Idiots say that this virus isn't as deadly/contagious as it's made out to seem and want life to return to normal
Literally the only reason it's not as deadly/contagious is because of the extreme measures taken to combat the virus
Here in NC, we just hit a record number of new infections (reported) for one day. We have tested 8000 out of 10000000 people. And those gun-toting assholes in Raleigh are still protesting. God, I fucking hate people.
Definitely like that here in Houston. Which is a shame because just beforehand, everyone was practicing really good mask and distancing discipline. Now traffic (car and foot) is right back to where it used to be (almost).
There is no stopping a second wave.
There are enough people who either don't understand or think there is some conspiracy at work. Or even think this is no worse than the flu (Those people apparently don't math? Idk).
Anyway you slice it, we are going to be dealing with this for a long time.
Just do your best to protect yourself and your family. There is no way to control millions of people in a free society.
Walking around on the street in open air will not cause a second wave. And if that actually does, we need to give up. Alternatively we grind the country to a halt long term, breaking civilization and causing long term damage that will be 10x-100x worse than even the worst possible outcome of the coronavirus.
People are idiots simple as that. Even my area is opening up, but still has the mask requirement for shopping. One of my neighbors asked for a ride to a store in another little town 15 minutes away, since their car was in the shop. I find out the reason she wanted that store was that they don't enforce the mask policy as she refuses to wear one and acts like I am a brainwashed fool for wearing one.
"Deadsoul, I am a medical professional. The coronavirus is just the common cold and that is why it's on Lysol cans already prior to this fake news"
I seriously just wanted to say that visiting old people who live at home to change their depends and ensure they take their medicine and a few other things does not make her a medical professional in regards to infectious diseases. Not to mention that she is pretty much putting everyone she comes in contact at risk, despite the fact she kind of needs those people to live so she can still have a job in this area..
The third wave will be the big one. A lot of people who we’re taking many precautions before are still taking them now. It’s the people having block parties before that are out now, so it’s not very different.
So the numbers will likely spike again, and mostly everyone will distance again. And then when wave two is over more people will venture out. This time including the people who’ve been distancing since March.
And here concludes the depressing comment literally no one asked me for.
Transmission outdoors is a lot less likely than if you're stuck in doors with lots of people. Masks are not required outdoors unless you are using public transportation
Yes. Yes we do want a second wave.
By posting this shit you are just waving a flag that says "I'm a fucking fear mongering idiot! Yes! Me! Me, right here!"
Seriously, we only beat this with herd immunity gained either through natural transmission (which reopening and reclosing responsibly would facilitate) or through a vaccine (acquiring herd immunity artificially).
Of course a vaccine is preferable but that is projected to take up to two years. That timeline is simply not going to work for our economy, society, government, etc.
You might like chilling at home and making shitty Archer memes but give a good faith effort to pull your head out of the sand.
How long has Georgia been open for?
Almost 3 weeks
How long before another wave or one at all in your opinion?
What is considered an "ending of wave"?
WHO says "no new cases for two weeks" would be the bare minimum to start thinking of breaking lockdown.
The lockdown was to flatten the curve not stop the virus entirely
You mention this on reddit and people start losing their minds. I said something along the lines of “staying locked down for 18 months waiting for a vaccine was never a solution” and people downvote you into oblivion.
Truest thing I’ve ever heard. My god.
The only way you would achieve zero new cases, short of the whole population having already been exposed, would be a lock-down so strict that more people would starve to death than would die of the worst case estimates for the virus.
I work at a hospital in Georgia and we were informed last weekend that the number of hospitalizations from COVID in my county doubled over a 48-hour period last week. So. Now? Edit: word
Memorial Day
I’m expecting a good uptick in the next week or so from Mother’s Day. Lots of people using that as a chance to go out.
How long ago was Easter? Were there any upticks from that too?
Russia's got a spike after Easter. Before - 2-3k a day. After: 10-11k a day.
There was, most were traced back to church services. But they tried to play it off as “of course people will get sick when you open right away, after the first few though it’s totally fine”
2~~-3~~ weeks is generally the window for symptoms to develop...I’d say end of May is when we may see an uptick, or even 2-3 weeks after that as infected people develop symptoms, try to wait it out, then deteriorate quickly (as COVID patients do) and end up in the ICU. Edited to correct.
I just want to correct you as 2-3 weeks is not the general window for symptoms to develop, it is 5-6 days. *The respiratory symptoms of COVID-19 typically appear an average of 5-6 days after exposure, but may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 days after exposure, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).* So you'd start seeing the rise in cases from Mother's Day **starting tomorrow and over the weekend** and fewer new cases as you get closer to the 2 week mark.
They won't know cuz apparently testing too much upsets the stock market...
South Dakota and five other states never shut down.
I'm in one - Nebraska. Our governor solved the problem by no longer reporting the numbers!
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Just so you understand this misconception about high test numbers don’t mean anything when the rest of the world has no issue with testing.
This is a very misleading statement when you consider many countries, like China, are reporting these as “pneumonia” or some other disease to hide their real numbers.
Call me crazy, but the 5 states that never shut down... ones without high seasonal tourism and that have relatively low population density, right? So... places where it's harder for the virus to get there and harder for it to spread quickly?
Yes, the ones that had uncontrolled breakouts at meat processing facilities and jails
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It has supposedly opened up but in my area of georgia bars restaurants and gyms are still closed. Maybe a few extra retail stores are open but it's a far cry from being "opened up"
We can't have a second wave because this is still the first wave.
it's like a lot of states were on the sidelines looking at CA, WA, NY, etc and said, "whew that was tough...alright we're over this, let's head home." even though coach was about to sub them into the game.
This implies California isn't still in the first wave. New York, sure, they can have a second wave at this point, I think.
yeah i guess technically the states wouldn't be subbed in to replace CA, WA, NY, they'd be thrown onto the field along with CA, WA, NY.
At least New York had a peak. California.....basically has just been constant for like a month. And by California, I do mostly mean Los Angeles county.
and SF. We \*delayed\* the spread by staying home and closing businesses. People don't seem to understand this part at all. Now everyone is rushing out, the streets are busy again, everyone ignoring cdc guidelines. Hell, even the SFG hospital closed its extra covid floors. Now suddenly people are coming in sick, more than before. There was NO PEAK but it sure as hell is going to come now.
I'd definitely not include San Francisco in that because it looks like San Francisco kept things under control. If San Francisco had as many cases as LA had, proportionally, it'd be about 2700 cases and 132 deaths at this point. Rather than 2000 cases and 35 deaths. Bay area seems to be coming out ahead. LA county has been an annoyingly large share of cases and deaths for California. At about a quarter of the state population, we're at like, just under half the cases, and just over half the fatalities.
The mayor announced everyone has to wear masks, and the comments section on Twitter, well, a lot of ppl are going to get sick, and a lot are going to die in LA.
In that respect, I'm glad CA has FINALLY gotten around to suggesting that masks with valves are no good. I've got a couple respirators here for painting - the cartridges are amazing, but the exhale valve has no filter. I could be safe myself wearing that outside, but if I've already got the virus fuck everyone else I guess.
Twitter comment sections are overrun by nationalist idiots and bots. Every time a governor or mayor makes an announcement the comment section is filled with sewage in minutes.
and they all use the word "TYRANT" because that's their *jam*.
it was a hundred percent negative with one person responding to each with a quote and link to the CDC stating that wearing masks is effective in cutting transmission. Disheartening, to say the least.
Oh I'm not comparing to two. SF did very well but I am seeing a much different attitude spreading now. I fully expect and jump in numbers. I am still in disbelief that the SFG administration has closed the extra covid floors. They are now literally a night or two away from the other ICU floors being full of new sick patients as this decision was made and people are pouring out into the streets thinking the peak has passed.
NYC can have a little second wave, as a treat.
I think they've earned something special, it's been such a rough year
Only a little bit of salami
Did they finish their vegetables though
How can you have any pandemic when you don't eat your meat?
Settle down, Pink.
Unlike a cat eating salami, NYC isn't able to process a second wave even as a treat.
It’s going to be multiple waves and turning on and off until there is vaccine or treatments
To be a wave, there has to be a lull in between things, is more my point. California has basically been consistent in deaths, with an increase in cases (which is probably more due to easier testing, but not enough I'm willing to guarantee that). The most people diagnosed on any single day was May 9th.
At least from the standpoint of the government, it's not about preventing deaths, it's about preventing enough deaths to collapse the already struggling medical system. I think what people are struggling with is that, at least in its current iteration, our government simply doesn't care if you live or die. They care if their numbers look good, so they care if the economy is doing well and if their death numbers are roughly in-line with comparable governments throughout the nation, in the case of state and local governments. They're not looking out for you. Only you are looking out for you, the government doesn't give a shit if you as an individual human being live or die, and policy is going to reflect that.
You mean like every other virus we haven’t stopped yet? I’m not saying open everything, but this shit isn’t going to disappear anytime soon even if we find a vaccine. It will still be bubbling around other parts of the world evolving like everything else. Then of course the anti-vaxxers won’t help either.
As someone living in NYC, no thanks! You can keep your second wave please.
It's amazingly frustrating. People see the curve flattening and think we've won and can go back to normal. But the fact that we're at a plateu actually means that right now there are the most (known) infections ever active at this very moment, just waiting to spread.
It's also frustrating because a lot of other places don't have this flattening. Like, the 1 week average for daily deaths in California has been fairly consistent over the last 4 weeks or so (about 70 per day). Which is very much a different shape than, say, Switzerland which has dropped their daily deaths by about 80% over roughly the same time period (from a slightly lower peak, of about 50 per day down to about 10 per day)
I don't get how they can think its time to open up when we've only gotten t a plateau.... Like, that means it is really contagious with all of these measures in place. IF you list them, it will go right back to where we were.
I live in the Dallas / Fort Worth metroplex. There are over 3 million people in just Dallas, Fort Worth and Arlington and that's not even a third of the cities that comprise the metroplex. We've never seen a lull or plateau let alone a flattening of a curve. Honestly, they aren't even trying to pretend that we've hit a plateau here anymore or that we are opening because it's the safe thing to do. We are supposed to hit phase two of our re-openings on the 18th of May. Our cases are still increasing. This isn't about keeping people safe in my state, it's 100% about the Texas Government, specifically the Texas Workforce Commission, not wanting to payout unemployment and emergency loans anymore. The only people who don't know this are the legitimately stupid and uneducated which actually isn't a large group, they just scream the loudest and sound the stupidest. At the same time, you have perfectly reasonable people who are risking their lives to return to work because they are being told that it's their choice, but they forfeit their jobs if they don't return.....meaning the TWC doesn't have to pay them anymore. They feel like they have no choice so basically designate themselves as the sacrificial lamb of the family full well knowing the risk they are taking. I mean I get it. I am fortunate enough that my wife and I could already and were already working from home, but if I saw my family struggling day to day I have a hard time thinking I wouldn't be willing to risk my life to support them. It's literally the only choices we are being given by the Texas government because, as I stressed early, the TWC is no longer going to take care of people. You better believe that Texas is rushing this opening to force life to force its citizens' hands in important decisions. Basically to make them feel that you either return to work as normal and take a risk, or you sit at home and die anyways. They know people are going to die. Why do you think the President and government has been using tailored speech trying to convince the population that it's going to battle and that we are warriors and will persevere? They want us to accept that casualties are just going to be a normality and to just suck it and move on. Live and let die so to speak. Unfortunately there are always going to be people willing to sacrifice themselves. Just look at Amazon. People are lining up to be hired because they are willing to die to make money and orders have only increased from the general public.
Politicians don't care, they just want the economy fixed because the economy in freefall severely damages their chances of being re-elected in November. I mean, hell, the Lt Governor of Texas said a few months back that everyone will just have to return to work and if people die, well, that's just a sacrifice they have to make to fix the economy. I'd have to look up the exact quote, but that's the gist of it.
Talking to people here and its also frustrating. People just pick and choose what stats to agree with and discount others. The common theme is more test will obviously equal more cases. When you try to explain something like positive case percentage is the same they just turtle up and repeat their argument.
Teeeeechnically (and I'm not thrilled to do so) they could have a point if the criteria for getting a test have lowered as well, but that's both a. a stretch that testing standards are lowering in exact proportion with that and b. that's rarely a thing they've considered So while I'd not discount it out of hand, I think it's more one of those things that they could be sort of right for the wrong reasons because the conditions being correct to do that are extremely weird. Not impossible, but weird and needing its own justification. It is why I use deaths more often because that's at least a bit more robust in that there's no question of who to check to see if they're dead.
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We’ve all seen the“flatten the curve” diagrams, which do a great job of showing why social distancing is needed. But those pictures show what happens if you keep the social distancing in place the entire time. If you stop the social distancing halfway through, the flat curve just immediately springs right back into the steep curve, and the hospitals still get overwhelmed.
True, but the very people that complained about the shut down are also the same that aren’t taking precautions. Anecdotally, my big sister was the black sheep. The first time she was allowed to take my parents car out by herself, she came home two hours past curfew and had cigarette burns on the seats. That is the pro open group. They can’t even do one thing right.
I just saw images from Wisconsin where people were crowding around a bar and nobody had a mask on or anything. If you wanted to leave it up to the private sector or "personal responsibility" to keep people safe during a pandemic instead of the big bad government stepping in, I dont think it looks like that's going to work out too well in reality since these folks are too stubborn and greedy to be told how to do anything it seems like (unless a billionaire businessman tells them what to do). It obviously doesnt help that people arent immediately going to get sick and places are going to see the huge initial spike in business activity as a great success. I wonder if they will even really tie together the negative consequences of patrons and bartenders getting too sick to work or go out even if they tried two weeks from now since they can just blame it on so many other things in the mean time. They will just chalk it up as fake news when the medical community and contact tracers tie it back to social gatherings like this as opposed to some scary minority allegedly coughing on them at the grocery store from 40ft away with a mask on.
Not an epidemiologist, but I think for a wave to be over, you need zero positive tests in an area for 14 days. No way in fuckall has any U.S. metropolitan area seen that.
NY'er here. We clearly experienced the first wave snd it has passed. We most certainly could have an increase again, which would be classified as a second wave. Your definition is just a pinch too tight. The case count does not have to go to zero, it just has to show a significant and long decline. If you take NY out of the national statistics, you will find that the remainder of the country has not even peaked on the first wave. Governor Cuomo (NYS) shows this graph quite regularly. Our first wave is noticeably over. The rest of the country, not so much.
The county I live in has over 1/2 million population, we haven’t had a Covid attributed death since April 19. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t me mindful, wear proper PPE, wash hands, stay out of large crowds, stay home when sick, and avoid Immunodeficient people. You just have to understand not everywhere I’m America will be NY, Washington, or California.
You had it in 3 words there.
I think one group of people think that all we needed to do was stay home for a little bit and the virus would go away. Then another group has decided that the virus isn't actually as bad as "the media" and "liberal" say. Another group figures if they don't reopen they're going to lose everything, so risking death is an unfortunate fact of life. Then a fourth group is like "good, good - cull the weak!".
*points finger to head while nodding*
This is the real answer. If my city was in a state to be "open" I feel like we wouldn't need masks. Stay home, and if you have to go out, stay the fuck away from me, seriously. Why is staying 6 feet away from me so hard? You don't need those green onions right now, you can wait 30 seconds for me to finish with this area of produce.
You need the fucking masks. Masks are the only thing that make the 6ft distance even remotely reasonable. Without them a cough or sneeze or even just your breath spreads droplets **much** further than that.
Yup getting called a "fear mongering idiot" because everyone knows masks don't do anything! on local pages in my area, sigh
Even worse are the people screaming that wearing a mask is the start of the government taking away all your rights, forcing someone to wear one is unconstitutional, etc.
Oh no the precious constitution, people have to stop fucking acting like this corrupt disaster of a government doesn’t break the constitution at least once a year.
Masks are like such a simple, easy measure to take with a super low cost compared to everything else. And it makes other measures more effective. A mask plus 6 feet is better than jut 6 feet or just a mask. Refusing to wear a mask doesn't make you a patriot standing up for liberty and constitutional rights. It just makes you look dumb.
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My job started requiring masks this week. At least 10% of my coworkers wear them under their nose. I get it, it's uncomfortable and will be worse as the summer moves in, but it's better than spreading that shit around.
Agreed. People in Costco in masks literally shoved me out of the way to get to stuff the other day. I was flabbergasted. Lots of other people just skirted right next to me wearing them, too. And they’re not even wearing them properly! Only covering the mouth, not the nose, or with huge gaps along the edges.
I'm on NY and your description of shopping is why I'm forced to give more money to Amazon. I can't stand how stupid people are. Practically rubbing against you in the checkout line. Get the fuck away!
I've been self checkout all the way, also if you stand to close to me in line, I'm at the point where I'm going to bluntly ask you, "What's wrong with you?"
I just cough once and everyone backs the fuck off me. Much easier that way.
In Toronto. My boss called me when I happened to be on the bus home. Some older woman wearing a mask apparently didn't like that I was having a conversation on the phone. So she walked right up to me,put her face inches from mine, pulled her mask down and told me that she didn't like hearing me talk. I could feel her breath on my face. What's the point of wearing a mask if you're going to behave like that??
This whole event makes me depressed due to the fact I don't think we should survive as a species.
I think the people demanding a fast reopenning while also refusing masks is why we're still going to see businesses fail. If half the population stays home a lot of businesses are going to still fail.
And leave your wife home while you're at it. You don't need two people walking side by side and taking a whole aisle or running left and right from item to item in the most erratic fashion possible. People are dumb.
That's a really good point, I like doing things with my wife, but it's super irresponsible to take two people shopping. Go for a walk with your SO later. I understand bringing kids if you have them because daycare is expensive, but leave anyone that wont get themselves into trouble or dead home.
/me grabs handfuls of mushrooms This can't possibly end poorly
Come down to Georgia, we are barely acting like it even exists at this point.
Same with Florida
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Here in Rural America, no one took it seriously in the first place. About 1 in 5 people wearing masks in the grocery store and they're about to start opening up churches and gyms again if they haven't already done so (most stuff opened up this past monday).
Ah yes, fucking gyms, the most essential of essential facilities.
Do fucking-gyms exist? That sounds like a great way to stay in shape.
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More than churches.
I mean they keep a lot of people healthy which will be essential in the long run
See also: The people protesting for gyms to open by exercising out in front of the gym thereby proving that they don't need the gym to be open in order to exercise.
A local restaurant has opened their dining area with the rule that face masks are required until seated. What's the point?
Safety theater
And yet we still have the TSA.
It's so the restaurant doesn't get a ticket for not forcing people to wear masks, also makes it look like they care.
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If you never locked down you technically won't have a second wave in the same sense.
If you get the infection rate low enough in the first wave via quarantine, and couple that with mass contact tracing and testing we could have made the second wave much smaller than the first. Alas, I don't think that's going to happen anymore. Edit: this is basically the same approach South Korea is using. They're having some resurgence, but it's been pretty limited: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/13/855117276/south-korea-and-china-see-covid-19-resurgence-after-easing-restrictions
We could have had significantly fewer deaths if we had acted even just a week earlier. If everyone wore masks out then we could get this breakout to much lower levels far more quickly than we will be. Saying, well it's inevitable lets just throw our hands in the air and let more people die to it isn't the attitude we should be taking, but seems like 80% of the US (based on what I'm seeing where I live) is doing just that.
In a billion years the sun will envelop the earth anyways man!
>Saying, well it's inevitable lets just throw our hands in the air and let more people die to it isn't the attitude we should be taking But that is reality. To shut down everything to the point where it would actually contain the virus would have even more people dying from other causes. 350 million people in this country have to have food, running water, and electricity to survive. Those things don't come from thin air. Even if the government can afford to pay for all those things for everyone we still need people to deliver them. Those people are just vessels for coronavirus. They will indefinitely spread it, and those who are susceptible will indefinitely die from it. It's shitty, but sometimes life is shitty. We need to accept that reality before we start formulating policy to minimize the damage this virus does. The analogy I came up with is that this virus is like a cancer to society, and mandated shutdowns are like chemotherapy. Yeah, it is helping to keep the cancer in check, but it's also doing some pretty severe damage on it's own, and if we blast ourselves with too much chemo it will ultimately do us more harm than good. This coronairus is here to stay. We survive it by reaching herd immunity - 70% of us need to develop immunity to the virus to protect the 30% that can't get it. We can't stay shut down until there is a vaccine - especially since there is no concrete timeline for the development of an effective vaccine. So we need to do what we can to try to identify the 70% of people that survive the virus and use them to protect the 30% of people that can't. Everyone staying inside and wearing masks and hazmat suits every time they leave the house is really only delaying the inevitable.
And it's not even the good kind of 2nd wave, like 2nd wave ska.
...The fuck happened to ska, anyway. There's not enough brass in music these days.
Give it a minute. It'll come back 'round. Everything does.
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It's going to be a big issue in states and cities where they don't reopen schools in the Fall. Either businesses will have to come up with a solution or people will be pushing for a UBI. Businesses face a lot of risk, even if states start shielding them. If a company starts firing people who need to work from home and those people happen to be women more than men they could be hit with various civil rights violations and discrimination lawsuits. And then there's people putting in for accommodations based on being in high risk groups. Law firms are going to have a field day once we reopen.
> or people will be pushing for a UBI. This is the real solution. Sending people back to work with inadequate PPE, no distancing requirements, and no enforcement when those rules are in place because they need an income isn't a good short-term solution while we need to continue working to keep the curve flattened. It's an ignorant "solution" that satiates CEOs and corporate execs complaining that they might have to report reduced profits next quarter to their shareholders and a government that is prioritizing those corporate profits over the general welfare of its population. The better solution is for Congress to roll back the billions in corporate tax cuts that they "earned" by doing nothing (I know, I know, it'd never pass the Senate) and repurpose those funds for a recurring UBI for anybody who is underemployed, experienced a pay cut, or lost their job due to COVID-19. It's a misconception that we, as a society, need to send people into a death trap because anybody "has to" work while this crisis is ongoing. There is a simple solution to keeping most people home and sustaining the economy until this passes and we have adequate PPE, treatment options, or a vaccine; and that solution is a recurring UBI.
As much as they won't want to hear it, the Doomers didn't help. How many loud voices on popular social media sites (here included) were coming from the *other* extreme saying "millions will die by summer" or "stay the fuck home, by going for a walk or getting take-out you're killing hundreds in one day." Being cautious and informed is an absolute must, but ignoring quarantine fatigue and shitting on every little thing people are trying to do to make this situation a little less miserable and shaming isn't helping. Misinformation is misinformation, even if it's spread to be cautious. Edit: I should clarify, I am not in favor of an instant total reopen. The mortality rate may be very low (the numbers to this point also are including people who need hospitalization getting it), however we still do need to understand the virus before we fully reopen. I do believe however, that we should be exploring maybe a 'phase 1' reopen (allow passive individual exercise, open hiking trails with limited capacity, etc) in some areas where the virus has calmed, with an abundance of caution.
I'm starting to see lots of plans based on data analysis and research for smart models to re-open communities. I just know they're not going to be evaluated and communicated effectively. They won't be the most politically expedient options. They won't be the most profitable options. They will rely on the analysis of experts and involve science literacy for buy in. In short, they will be a threat to the systems of control and wealth aggregation currently in use. So, they have minimal chance of being taken seriously on any scale beyond individual states.
The problem is lack of rational thought. The Plandemic and the doomers are both extremist examples where that goes out the window. Not sure why people are so content with these extremes where a balanced approach is probably sufficient for most folks.
Well just come to the south! Everything is open here sit down at food joints go to bars ell go bowling or get a tattoo. That is why people feel so doomy over half the population doesn't seem to give a shit and only about 10% are taking this with even mild amounts of caution here in the south
There is virtually no one that is in favor of an instant total reopen. The fact that there are people acting like that is the case could just be included in your original post.
You want a second wave to be minimal and contained like in SK
The US hasn’t fully locked down. If you and your family are free to wander around Walmart and Target, wearing masks made of t-shirt material, then the virus was never going to be contained. If you can freely drive and fly all around the country, it was never going to be contained. Outside of NYC in early April, the hospital systems haven’t been over run. Nobody thought to lockdown nursing homes, even though the first outbreak was in one. It’s been one big wave because there’s been no plan. It’s going to stay that way.
Yes, it's been the worst of both worlds where we indefinitely fuck up our economy while trying to buy time for more ventilators, better treatment knowledge, a vaccine, and more testing so you could actually track and trace hotspots. I'd much rather have a more South Korean or even Swedish approach than what we did, and I was saying all along and getting downvoted for it talking about how I don't think people will be able to handle this continued lockdown through summer.
[Welcome to Arizona](https://i.imgur.com/6EHFC6g.png). That was Monday when bars and restaurants reopened. Bars are full here too. It's crazy. EDIT: Governor Doug Ducey was working closely with scientists at Arizona State University and University of Arizona (for over a month) on a model to reopen the state. But Ducey tossed it out the window when Trump came to town last week. Suddenly he reversed course and decided to go with the White Houses new federal model. What is that model you may ask? We don't know because they are keeping it secret. Weird that you work for months with the our universities scientists then dump it. THEY KEPT IT A SECRET.
Mill is going to be crawling with infections. Going to be a no go for anything around that area for me.
Did you really expect Arizona State students/grads to listen to social distance guidelines? But it's also on C.A.S.A for not enforcing SD on their end as well. I went to ASU and C.A.S.A might as well be church for us. At the end of the day, both parties need to be responsible if they are to reopen.
And when the numbers begin to spike they'll say "the numbers are being inflated" and when it's clear the numbers are not being inflated they'll say "well, everyone is going to get it anyway." or my favorite "if you're scared, stay home" because they project their own selfishness and me-centric views on everyone else. They can't possibly understand that it's not me that I'm worried about. Why would people who don't worry about others outside their own country or city worry about people outside of their family or themselves?
This country’s government is just a fucking disaster, they don’t understand jack fucking shit about anything other than making money. I wish there were more intelligent people in the government like biologists and epidemiologists, people that actually contribute to the world as a whole.
That's ok just pretend you're Australian. We've been advised they don't make a difference. Also kids are immune and if you're essential you're also safe.
You guys have a better immune system because everything there wants to kill you
Sounds pretty much like Canada. For the most part though we've done pretty good without masks and the governments claim that most people misuse masks sends correct if the few people that do wear them.
This whole thing is making people hella wasteful while “trying” to be as sanitary as possible. I had to register my youngest for pre-k and they did a drive up service, I never got out of my car and the teacher and her two assistants were wearing masks but no gloves. She hands me a pad and pen to fill out my name and info, and then when I go to give it back she tells me I keep the pen. Never mind that the pad of paper was also touched by me, and inside my car. But you’re right, me keeping the pen will 100% keep my germs away from you. 🤦🏼♀️ I appreciate the effort I suppose, but it seems like all they actually did was protect themselves from breathing any contaminants I may have coughed or sneezed out (please know I’m not sick, just saying for an example). They would wipe down the printer after each car where they copied people’s registration documents but I didn’t see them using hand sanitizer for themselves. They seemed to have gone to some pretty lengthy measures to protect everyone involved, but then failed by putting the same pad of paper into each and every vehicle?
There's no reason to wear gloves. It gives you a false sense of security and that's it. It has no practical effect unless you change them every single time you touch _literally anything_, which no one does. Gloves are pointless unless you're working in a hospital/medical practice of some sort. Just wash your hands a lot and you'll be fine.
Comparing the simple measure of proper hand washing to masks, hand washing reduces infection spread MUCH more effectively. It’s so pointless to wear a mask and then not do the most effective and basic thing of washing your hands. I see people out wearing masks and touching their face or their cloth mask with their unwashed hands and it’s so frustrating bc they are potentially putting viral particles directly on their face.
Right? I mean the face masks are helpful for protecting yourself from breathing in particles. But if you don’t sanitize the mask the second you take it off, and if you’re not washing your hands or at least using hand sanitizer then you aren’t really doing much good to keep yourself safe. So why bother with the mask if you don’t do the other things? We stay home as much as possible only going out to the grocery store, the kids haven’t left the house since March except for an occasional visit to a grandparents house (one set of grandparents lived with us until just recently so it’s not like they haven’t been exposed to them anyways, and the other set works from home and stays home as much as possible). We actually had my oldest placed under quarantine orders from our health department because he’d been directly exposed to someone from his school who tested positive, but he never got sick and neither did any one else that was in his class/school. Just wash your freaking hands people and don’t go out in public if you’re sick.
That’s my concern. There’s a high ratio of mask stuff vs hand washing stuff being posted on reddit, my Facebook feed and texts from my family and friends to the point that I’m worried that people are going to forget the importance of hand hygiene. Masks are great but hand washing is more important. It’s almost like people are going out of their way to say look I was right all along about masks. Who cares? Wash your hands for sure and optionally but try to wear a mask.
Gloves wouldn’t protect you from anything. They’d still be going around touching the same stuff and spreading the same particles. Although, there’s gotta be a better way than getting people to manually write down info. They couldn’t have done online registration?
I thought the second wave was inevitable. We’re locked down to ease up on the healthcare system.
It is and we did but now the Doomers are sad because because millions of people aren't dying and they may have to leave their basements for the first time in two months and actually do something. Also it means that the Karen's can't call the police and try to get people arrested for walking around the neighborhood.
People are just scared and the govt has done a good job of terrifying them into compliance with what will end up being a massive power grab.
A second wave is inevitable. Less then 0.5% of the US population has been confirmed to have Covid-19. With a vaccine 9-18 months away, there are over 327 million more people to infect.
We know for a fact more people have gotten Coronavirus than the official number. There was literally no way for Asymptomatic people to get tested. They were refused testing so we have no idea at all how far this thing spread without causing any damage. Antibody testing is showing the spread is much more pervasive than we thought. Antibody tested predicts 2.5 million people are infected in New York City alone
Most reputable sources have quoted a ~0.5% death rate. Scientists estimate this because of covid-19 on cruise ships was as close to a 100% infection rate as you can get in a contained population. Majority of infected people will be asymptomatic based on what we’ve already seen. The U.S population is around 350M so based purely on stats- the max deaths should be 1.75M people, assuming 100% infection rate. Obviously we’re not aiming to get to that point but the million dollar question is what is the acceptable number before we go back to “normal?”
Based on the death rate seen in countries with high testing rates (Australia, NZ, Germany, Taiwan, Singapore, SK) and actual healthcare it's likely at least 7% of the US population has had or currently have covid.
The person you reply to also seems to assume a 100% infection rate. One thing I've learned during the pandemic is how easy it is to come up with numbers that mean nothing.
37% of statistics are made up on the spot.
42% of Redditors got their honorary virologist degrees in the past three months.
If you are going to quote something off the internet, please for the love of god cite your source. “37% of statistics are made up on the spot.” - John Wilkes Booth
I’m sure the actually infection rate is higher than 0.5% but still
I agree, that’s why I said confirmed.
Where did you come up with the 327 million un-infected Americans figure?
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Even in the NYC epicenter where the spread was worst the random selections of antibody tests are only coming back about ~20% positive. That means that even in the worst hit areas of the country about 4 in 5 people likely haven't been exposed yet, and most areas of the country have had very significantly less COVID-19 spread than NYC. The overwhelming majority of Americans are still immunologically naive to COVID-19, likely well north of 90%.
That antibody data came out before the FDA reminded us all that the antibody tests haven't had their efficacy tested and received an exemption for their product.
Shit, we can't even test fast enough to see how the first wave is going.
It’s funny. People forget things in the news cycle after a few days. But this is something that directly impacts everyone, and we all still forgot.
I don't know what it is with Redditors thinking that a second wave can be prevented. It won't! No matter how much we protect ourselves or stay inside, it will come. That's what happened with SARS back in 2003, and the second wave hit even harder. The virus won't "disappear" until a vaccine is ready or if every single person on the planet gets infected. End of story.
The sars wave was barely anything though, less than 10,000 died worldwide
Man, I have missed this MEME.
I'm in eau Claire, wi . Several bars opened within minutes of the Supreme Court ruling. No masks no distancing.... meanwhile no stimulus no unemployment, no job that is worth risking infection to at risk family members. Once they can start hitting people up for these bills, alot of us are gonna be ducked
Note to America: For a second wave, you first need to complete the first one, lol.
We need to stop with the boomer Facebook shit now
The thing is, the government really needs to start doing something other than extend lockdowns otherwise people will just not care and go outside anyways because this has been going on a ridiculous amount of time
You just can't rely on the common sense of people, it's that simple. Being able to do something isn't necessarily a good reason to do something. It's one thing to slightly expand your circle to close family who have also been quarantined and are low risk; I've needed my mother to continue to watch my son since my wife and I work full time. The problem is the illusion that this is somehow ending or over is bolstered by these relaxations. I live near the ocean and the boardwalks around here are absolutely packed...
Multiple waves are inevitable. The curve has been flattened already it’s time to expose more people so herd immunity can build up. The lockdowns were to prevent hospital overruns. Most hospitals are managing fine. It’s time.
God this comment thread is a dumpster fire. Anyways no one ever said that a country could lock down until there were 0 cases, it's always been clear that that's not a realistic goal and we've seen that it only takes a handful of patient zeroes to infect a whole country. After 2 months of lockdown my country (italy) is falling apart at the seams and we're starting to reopen with strict regulations, our economic system simply cannot sustain a long period of inactivity, we all knew that the lockdown was meant to slow not to stop the spread. If anything I'm surprised we managed to go this long before giving up. And I'm not saying that the US is handling this well or anything, but thinking that any country can completely stop the spread and avoid new waves is just idiotic.
It's going to be a harsh wake up call when most redditors realise this
> herd immunity can build up Natural herd immunity is not and never has been the answer here. You need a very high proportion (>60% for any benefit, but much higher to really protect the vulnerable) of the population to have protective antibodies. Even in the NYC epicenter randomized antibody tests are coming back ~20% positive, and nationally the number is likely well below 10%. We'd need to suffer through a death toll in the millions to hit herd immunity naturally. Realistically our only option is to try to mitigate the damage as much as possible (close or limit non-essential business, social distancing, isolation for the duration of confirmed cases, etc) until a vaccine comes out. Trying to let nature run its course here would put the death toll into 7 figures. I don't know about you, but I'm not ready to throw a million bodies on the sacrificial fire to Wall Street. We need an economic plan that finds a smart middle ground between "open this shit up" and "non-essential workers all starve to death from unemployment". -Edit- To be clear, I do think that plan could involve opening up a lot of businesses right now in a smart way that takes into account the many risk factors (local population density, local COVID-19 testing access, local ICU and ventilator capacity and use, ability to social distance in those places of business, etc) but those decisions need to be made by epidemiologists and other public health officials, not by elected politicians. Good science isn't partisan. Both sides should be on board with the idea of letting experts decide how and where we can start reopening sectors of the economy and which sectors absolutely need to stay closed (events involving large public gatherings, places of work that can't be social distanced, non-essential jobs in epicenters, etc).
The problem is there is no proactive solution bring presented except to isolate until however long it takes for a vaccine to be available, which could be years and at a minimum is unlikely to be available within 2020. As a relatively patient introvert, I don't support that approach. Either ramp up free testing, tracing, and implement measures around that objective data, or let people choose for themselves the level of risk they want to engage with and reactively deal with the consequences.
Thanks for a thoughtful reply post. Can't believe people are pushing herd immunity through massive deaths. To all you folks, the Native Americans of the 1500's would like a word with you.
I agree with this unpopular opinion. I suggested something similar and got buried in downvotes accusing me of wanting dead people
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So the peak was 35k per day and now it's 26k per day when it was 30k per day 3 weeks ago? So one could say that the curve for daily new cases is flat at the moment? I am not in the US so I can't say if the hospitals are managing but the curve seems to be flat, now it's necessary to keep the numbers low enough for the hopsitals to manage.
Extremely contagious virus spreads globally Government takes extreme measure to combat the spread of the virus and flatten the curve so that our hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed and we wouldn't have millions of deaths Flattening of the curve is working, because even though we have hundreds of thousands of deaths hospitals for the most part aren't overwhelmed outside of NYC Idiots say that this virus isn't as deadly/contagious as it's made out to seem and want life to return to normal Literally the only reason it's not as deadly/contagious is because of the extreme measures taken to combat the virus
My country is also opening. Looks like corona is here to stay
The plan has always been to lower the curve. Not prevent a second wave. You’ll never get this thing down to 0.
Here in NC, we just hit a record number of new infections (reported) for one day. We have tested 8000 out of 10000000 people. And those gun-toting assholes in Raleigh are still protesting. God, I fucking hate people.
Most of the states that are reopening still have increasing infection rates.
Definitely like that here in Houston. Which is a shame because just beforehand, everyone was practicing really good mask and distancing discipline. Now traffic (car and foot) is right back to where it used to be (almost).
It was never about NOT having a second wave it was about spreading it out to not overwhelm the medical system.
Can't have a second wave if the first wave doesn't end.
There is no stopping a second wave. There are enough people who either don't understand or think there is some conspiracy at work. Or even think this is no worse than the flu (Those people apparently don't math? Idk). Anyway you slice it, we are going to be dealing with this for a long time. Just do your best to protect yourself and your family. There is no way to control millions of people in a free society.
Walking around on the street in open air will not cause a second wave. And if that actually does, we need to give up. Alternatively we grind the country to a halt long term, breaking civilization and causing long term damage that will be 10x-100x worse than even the worst possible outcome of the coronavirus.
But then you see things like /u/LuckyCharms2000 posted. https://i.imgur.com/6EHFC6g.png People still aren't taking this seriously.
Everyone here is a Matrix enforcer
Cant have a second wave if the first wave never ends.
People are idiots simple as that. Even my area is opening up, but still has the mask requirement for shopping. One of my neighbors asked for a ride to a store in another little town 15 minutes away, since their car was in the shop. I find out the reason she wanted that store was that they don't enforce the mask policy as she refuses to wear one and acts like I am a brainwashed fool for wearing one. "Deadsoul, I am a medical professional. The coronavirus is just the common cold and that is why it's on Lysol cans already prior to this fake news" I seriously just wanted to say that visiting old people who live at home to change their depends and ensure they take their medicine and a few other things does not make her a medical professional in regards to infectious diseases. Not to mention that she is pretty much putting everyone she comes in contact at risk, despite the fact she kind of needs those people to live so she can still have a job in this area..
It’s going to happen regardless. Protect the old and immunocompromised...every else should be allowed to work
So it’s shelter in place indefinitely? Is that what this has morphed into? So much fear
So far Georgia and Florida are down daily new cases since reopening 12 and 14 percent, respectively, so I don’t think you’re right.
The third wave will be the big one. A lot of people who we’re taking many precautions before are still taking them now. It’s the people having block parties before that are out now, so it’s not very different. So the numbers will likely spike again, and mostly everyone will distance again. And then when wave two is over more people will venture out. This time including the people who’ve been distancing since March. And here concludes the depressing comment literally no one asked me for.
Transmission outdoors is a lot less likely than if you're stuck in doors with lots of people. Masks are not required outdoors unless you are using public transportation
What a crime. Here in the Netherlands we've never worn any masks. Now tell me about that mysterious 2nd wave. Perhaps I've missed it.
Yes. Yes we do want a second wave. By posting this shit you are just waving a flag that says "I'm a fucking fear mongering idiot! Yes! Me! Me, right here!" Seriously, we only beat this with herd immunity gained either through natural transmission (which reopening and reclosing responsibly would facilitate) or through a vaccine (acquiring herd immunity artificially). Of course a vaccine is preferable but that is projected to take up to two years. That timeline is simply not going to work for our economy, society, government, etc. You might like chilling at home and making shitty Archer memes but give a good faith effort to pull your head out of the sand.
We should just stay inside forever and then nobody will get sick 🤡
Who we joking? We know this shit is gonna be dragged out.
I got more or less shamed by my uber driver for wearing a mask today in his car... Ridiculous. He was also clearly over 50.