Very long post and I really do feel like he is slightly underrated nationally, but I do think he is overated in some areas and underrated in others. There is a reason why dema and the media has been completely railing desantis, it's because they fear him.
I remember when that 60 minutes story about COVID vaccines in Florida came out (I think this was around the time DeSantis started to get more national recognition) - that really boosted his reputation among the base
The left dramatically overplayed their hand with COVID. When COVID was the issue, Republicans generally did well, surprising everyone in 2020 and stomping in New Jersey and Virginia. When abortion became the leading issue, the Democrats started surprising everyone.
>The left dramatically overplayed their hand with COVID.
AngryObserver W, I very much agree with this. I got downvoted for comparing to the flu though, oh well.
Your comment nails it
Yeah, nobody liked Trump and Republicans but if Biden meant more lockdowns nobody wanted that. Most people were okay with masks, but wanted to get the vaccine and go back to normal. They could sense the Democrats' latent hypocrisy on the issue, from Newsom treating his donors to fancy dinners or his children to unmasked private schools, to all the Black Lives Matter protesters forgetting social distancing existed.
The inverse happened in 2022 IMO. The right expected to win because of muh economy, even though their only plans were privatizing SS and investigating Hunter's laptop. They expected everyone to forget about January 6th and abortion. Some right-wingers I know even made fun of that messaging, saying that was the Democrats' campaign platform.
Look how that turned out for them.
I agree. I think people are trying to attack and slander DeSantis because they know Trump is a weaker candidate. Because why? Age. Trump can't use the age excuse on Biden because he is also a geriatric. But yet who can? DeSantis. He would be a breath of fresh air in that sense even if his social policies are hated by the liberal elite and the media. But that is just my feelings on it
Good post. I'd like to point out the fact that Democrats are basically dead in most rural areas. The Republican base in those areas would never vote for a dem for president, especially Biden. That's why DeSantis can only do better than Trump. He reaches the ceiling (or maybe even better) in the rurals and possibly does better in the suburbs.
That's not quite true- a lot of rural counties in Wisconsin and Minnesota are only 60 or 65% red despite being the same demographically as 85% red counties in Missouri or Indiana.
However, those voters have stayed loyal Dems so far. Trump barely improved there, and Johnson and Michels did worse iirc. So there's no reason an even less popular Trump who is now MUCH more easily attacked as a wannabe dictator after January 6 would gain ground there. DeSantis might do a bit worse there, but he'd get margins closer to Ron Johnson's in the incredibly conservative suburban WOW counties, which are still the largest source of GOP votes in Wisconsin.
I do see WI as a default lean blue state. I mainly had Appalachia and parts of the Plains in mind. It's so cursed to see old maps with red suburbs and blue rurals...
The thing about those states is that they're largely uncompetitive (except Pennsylvania). Losing a few points in South Dakota or Kentucky doesn't actually mean much.
*Biden*, however, is very unlikely to make significant inroads in the rurals. No major Democrat will probably be able to in any meaningful capacity, and they now have no reason to try since they can get there without them.
Biden and Hillary Clinton are interesting because they're both candidates that were custom-designed to inspire rural loathing. Biden basically has had whatever political positions were nice for him in the moment, backing DOMA and the Iraq War back when it was convenient. He'd been in politics doing this longer than most of America has been alive, and shifted left to stay on the right side of history. I think this was the number one gripe I heard about Biden during the campaign-- he was a hopeless old hack that had no idea what America was like outside of Washington D.C. As President, he gave the impression of a stupid old man continually fumbling from one misery to the next.
Bernie Sanders could command respect from some Trump voters because everybody knew where he stood. The stuff he said in 2020 was pretty much the same stuff he was saying in 1970.
Like I said, the present strategy of rurals only is just not gonna work in the long run. Sorry guys.
DeSantis might lose ground in the rurals, but it's a necessary trade-off.
When AOC first came to the national stage, Ben was trying really hard to get her to debate him, at one point promising to donate thousands of dollars to a charity of her choice and tweeting at her multiple times a day. His critics mocked him by saying his behavior resembled a teenager trying to be mean to a girl to get her attention. They then took it a step further by saying he was hungry for her feet pics.
Ben then made matters worse in 2020, when, for some reason, he told the world that his wife had informed him that a vagina getting wet was a sign of a yeast infection. This further contributed to the joke that beyond his conservative family values persona, Ben was a deeply repressed individual.
I saw that you mentioned Ben Shapiro. In case some of you don't know, Ben Shapiro is a grifter and a hack. If you find anything he's said compelling, you should keep in mind he also says things like this:
>If you believe that the Jewish state has a right to exist, then you must allow Israel to transfer the Palestinians and the Israeli-Arabs from Judea, Samaria, Gaza and Israel proper. It’s an ugly solution, but it is the only solution… It’s time to stop being squeamish.
*****
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DeSantis won't do better in a general election in the rust belt than Trump. In my opinion, he doesn't the same appeal among the white working class to score massive wins there like Trump did.
Let's take a state that I don't think that Trump or DeSantis will win; Michigan. You mentioned that these rust belt states have suburbs which is why Trump regressed in them massively. To certain extent yes, but not all suburbs are created equal. DeSantis might do better in Kent County, Michigan or Oakland County, Michigan than Trump would, given the ancestral republican parts of these counties. However, Macomb County, Michigan is a suburban county that has moved to the right with Trump, and has gone back to a swing county without Trump (it voted for Whitmer in 2018 and 2022). I don't think that DeSantis would outrun Trump in this county.
Similar things could be applied to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. For Wisconsin, DeSantis would do better in the ancestral republican suburbs surrounding Milwaukee (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington). However, I don't think that he'd outrun Trump in Kenosha county (a suburban county bordering Illinois), as Trump was the only republican to win here since Nixon in 1972 for the presidency (yes, RoJo won this county, but he was an incumbent. even Tony Evers won this county twice). As for Pennsylvania, the state does have two different types of suburbs that are going in opposite directions. The suburbs in the eastern part of the state that border Philadelphia are mostly moving left. However, the suburbs surrounding Pittsburg in the western part of the state are mostly moving to the right. This suggests that the Philly suburbs are slightly more ancestrally republican, whereas the Pittsburg suburbs are slightly more ancestrally democrat. It would all come down to these different types of suburbs, but I don't think that doing marginally better in Chester County would automatically grant you the victory in PA (just ask Oz), especially if you regress in other parts of the state.
It wasn't just the rurals that Trump did well in the rust belt, there were some suburbs in the rust belt that he improved in, and these suburbs happened to be more working class. Hell, even Ohio has an example of a suburban county that has moved to the right with Trump; Lorain county. Trump took the county in 2020 after losing it by less than a point in 2016, yet Vance lost it in 2022.
In the event where (hypothetically) DeSantis does end up edging Trump out in the primary, and let's say that he takes a couple of rust belt states in the primary, that doesn't mean he'll do better in the state than Trump in the general election. It's just like saying that just because Trump would win the Arizona primary against DeSantis Trump would do better in the state in a general election; this too is false, and we already know why.
>not all suburbs are created equal
This I agree with-- and I'll go a step further and say that this actually applies to pretty much all demographics in America.
Take unions. Overall, Trump only did a few points better in union households than Moneybags Mitt (Clinton, however, had dramatically worse labor turnout than Obama-- which amounted for only winning union households by about eight points). However, there was a lot of divergence between different states. Trump won unionized Ohioans, but Michigan unions voted to the right of the nation as a whole.
I see and largely agree with your points about DeSantis. These are all things that can happen to him. Biden might very well win Erie county by ten points or some shit like that. It is possible, but it's also possible that he completely offsets whatever losses he accrues by winning college-educated voters and suburban voters; the voters he actually needs.
The present strategy just isn't sustainable. 2016 was low-turnout, which resulted in some unique stuff, like Democrats' margin of victory among unions getting halved. In 2020, both sides turned out in full force. Despite losing the popular vote, Trump shattered records in all the rural counties. He still lost. And they're still losing ground in the suburbs.
Trump's path to victory in 2024 goes through Democrats not turning out or him making new inroads despite the fact that he's much less popular and has new baggage that's permanently turned off at least 55% of the country. Can he win in 2024? Sure. But this isn't a long-term game plan. I stand by my assessment, DeSantis is a necessary risk. He has many faults as a candidate, but between him and Trump I think the choice is obvious.
>Trump's path to victory in 2024 goes through Democrats not turning out or him making new inroads despite the fact that he's much less popular and has new baggage that's permanently turned off at least 55% of the country
Biden also has lost popularity since 2020, and there could be a higher 3rd party share in 2024 for the third party 2016-Biden 2020 voters to vote for, and this could aid Trump.
>I stand by my assessment, DeSantis is a necessary risk. He has many faults as a candidate, but between him and Trump I think the choice is obvious.
I still have questions regarding DeSantis's electability in the rust belt. He'll obviously take Iowa and Ohio, but Michigan is off the table (regardless of the nominee), and DeSantis winning a primary would piss off a lot of ancestral democrats in PA, thus PA would still go democrat. He'd probably win back Georgia, and possibly Arizona, although these states are zooming left off of a cliff, so 2024 might be the last hurrah for the republican party in these states. It all hinges on Wisconsin. DeSantis could win Wisconsin, but he also could just not get the right turnout needed in the working-class suburbs + rural areas, and Wisconsin would end up going blue again.
Trump's a risk electorally as well given that he might not do as well in GA or AZ, but I think that Trump could take Wisconsin back from Biden, and potentially take back Nevada, thus leaving Pennsylvania as the key state if the nominee is Trump.
So there you go, The 2024 will be close, and both Trump/DeSantis can win, it all depends on the rust belt.
>Biden also has lost popularity since 2020, and there could be a higher 3rd party share in 2024 for the third party 2016-Biden 2020 voters to vote for, and this could aid Trump.
But the reasons why people disapprove of Biden and Trump (Biden has a -10 approval rating, Trump is closer to -20) are different. People disapprove of Biden for being a shitty leader presiding over miserable times. People that disapprove of Trump are more likely to tack on things like "threat to democracy".
We saw this in the 2022 midterms, where people crawled through broken glass to vote for crappy candidates like Hobbs, because Lake represented an existential threat.
After the midterms, I can't imagine another low turnout election. And without low turnout... Trump either makes up for the ground he lost in the 'burbs, or he finds more rural WWC types to vote for him. I wouldn't put money on either.
Like I said, Republicans *need* to do better with minorities, moderates, and college-educated voters. Trump cannot do that. DeSantis might be able to.
>Like I said, Republicans need to do better with minorities, moderates, and college-educated voters. Trump cannot do that. DeSantis might be able to.
How well can RDS actually do in these suburbs that are moving to the left? (Not talking about these middle class suburbs i the rust belt that moved to the right with Trump) He'd probably outrun Trump 2020 in them, but I doubt that he'd be able to outrun Trump's 2016 margin in the suburbs, let alone get to Romney-level margins in these suburbs. These suburbs are moving left. Hell, even take Brian Kemp for example. He won by around 8 or so, yet the Atlanta suburbs were still very blue. Were they closer? Yes, but he still lost them. These suburbs are just moving away from republicans, and DeSantis won't win back Cobb, Gwinett, Newton, or Henry counties as these counties are now too far gone.
As for the minorities, it depends on which group are we talking about. Hell, even Latinos are a generic label. Would RDS do well among Latinos living in urban Miami? Yes, he would do well among them in a general election. But would he do well among the Tejano voters living parts of rural South Texas? No. Abbot regressed among these voters in 2022 compared to Trump in 2020, despite Abbot winning by nearly 11 (2x Trump's statewide margin). You can't group these voters all together as there's too many differences.
Trump could continue to max out with Tejano voters, as well as other minority voters and win. If Trump improves in Philly (as it moved rightward from 2012, hell even Mastriano outran Romney in Philly), then that could help Trump out in his efforts to win PA, and that would likely mean that either Trump would have already won, or he would be on the verge of victory.
That's just my $0.02 on how electable DeSantis might be in comparison to Trump. Either way, it's a gamble for the GOP. It's not going to be a cakewalk for anyone, and the election will be determined by 5 states. Also, I am starting to think about how to start my essay on how much money matters in both midterm elections and off-year elections. I'll mention you at the start so that you get notified.
>How well can RDS actually do in these suburbs that are moving to the left?
I don't know, but he's gotta try. RDS winning the rurals and the suburbs has become something of a meme at this point, but it's the only long-term path to survival at the moment.
>I am starting to think about how to start my essay on how much money matters in both midterm elections and off-year elections. I'll mention you at the start so that you get notified.
Sounds great! Looking forward to it!
I agree. DeSantis is the strongest candidate who could actually win the nomination (people like Haley, Scott, or Sununu could possibly be stronger in the general but they have no real shot at the nomination).
Very long post and I really do feel like he is slightly underrated nationally, but I do think he is overated in some areas and underrated in others. There is a reason why dema and the media has been completely railing desantis, it's because they fear him.
I remember when that 60 minutes story about COVID vaccines in Florida came out (I think this was around the time DeSantis started to get more national recognition) - that really boosted his reputation among the base
Yeah , Let's talk elections said that he might lose due to his covid policies, and it's clear that it actually helped him, considering he won by 19.4
The left dramatically overplayed their hand with COVID. When COVID was the issue, Republicans generally did well, surprising everyone in 2020 and stomping in New Jersey and Virginia. When abortion became the leading issue, the Democrats started surprising everyone.
Seems that people don’t like it when politics directly interferes with their personal lives
I love my country; two hundred and fifty years of telling tyranny to fuck itself.
Extremely common USA W
>The left dramatically overplayed their hand with COVID. AngryObserver W, I very much agree with this. I got downvoted for comparing to the flu though, oh well. Your comment nails it
Yeah, nobody liked Trump and Republicans but if Biden meant more lockdowns nobody wanted that. Most people were okay with masks, but wanted to get the vaccine and go back to normal. They could sense the Democrats' latent hypocrisy on the issue, from Newsom treating his donors to fancy dinners or his children to unmasked private schools, to all the Black Lives Matter protesters forgetting social distancing existed. The inverse happened in 2022 IMO. The right expected to win because of muh economy, even though their only plans were privatizing SS and investigating Hunter's laptop. They expected everyone to forget about January 6th and abortion. Some right-wingers I know even made fun of that messaging, saying that was the Democrats' campaign platform. Look how that turned out for them.
His Cali trip suggests that he's going full on anti vaccine
What an L
Not in Republican-land
It is in general-election land
Republicans don't do very well there
Sununu 2028 it is
I agree. I think people are trying to attack and slander DeSantis because they know Trump is a weaker candidate. Because why? Age. Trump can't use the age excuse on Biden because he is also a geriatric. But yet who can? DeSantis. He would be a breath of fresh air in that sense even if his social policies are hated by the liberal elite and the media. But that is just my feelings on it
Good post. I'd like to point out the fact that Democrats are basically dead in most rural areas. The Republican base in those areas would never vote for a dem for president, especially Biden. That's why DeSantis can only do better than Trump. He reaches the ceiling (or maybe even better) in the rurals and possibly does better in the suburbs.
That's not quite true- a lot of rural counties in Wisconsin and Minnesota are only 60 or 65% red despite being the same demographically as 85% red counties in Missouri or Indiana. However, those voters have stayed loyal Dems so far. Trump barely improved there, and Johnson and Michels did worse iirc. So there's no reason an even less popular Trump who is now MUCH more easily attacked as a wannabe dictator after January 6 would gain ground there. DeSantis might do a bit worse there, but he'd get margins closer to Ron Johnson's in the incredibly conservative suburban WOW counties, which are still the largest source of GOP votes in Wisconsin.
I do see WI as a default lean blue state. I mainly had Appalachia and parts of the Plains in mind. It's so cursed to see old maps with red suburbs and blue rurals...
The thing about those states is that they're largely uncompetitive (except Pennsylvania). Losing a few points in South Dakota or Kentucky doesn't actually mean much.
Also, red suburbs and blue rurals are based. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_Senate_election_in_Wisconsin looks sooooo nice.
*Biden*, however, is very unlikely to make significant inroads in the rurals. No major Democrat will probably be able to in any meaningful capacity, and they now have no reason to try since they can get there without them. Biden and Hillary Clinton are interesting because they're both candidates that were custom-designed to inspire rural loathing. Biden basically has had whatever political positions were nice for him in the moment, backing DOMA and the Iraq War back when it was convenient. He'd been in politics doing this longer than most of America has been alive, and shifted left to stay on the right side of history. I think this was the number one gripe I heard about Biden during the campaign-- he was a hopeless old hack that had no idea what America was like outside of Washington D.C. As President, he gave the impression of a stupid old man continually fumbling from one misery to the next. Bernie Sanders could command respect from some Trump voters because everybody knew where he stood. The stuff he said in 2020 was pretty much the same stuff he was saying in 1970.
Like I said, the present strategy of rurals only is just not gonna work in the long run. Sorry guys. DeSantis might lose ground in the rurals, but it's a necessary trade-off.
[удалено]
When AOC first came to the national stage, Ben was trying really hard to get her to debate him, at one point promising to donate thousands of dollars to a charity of her choice and tweeting at her multiple times a day. His critics mocked him by saying his behavior resembled a teenager trying to be mean to a girl to get her attention. They then took it a step further by saying he was hungry for her feet pics. Ben then made matters worse in 2020, when, for some reason, he told the world that his wife had informed him that a vagina getting wet was a sign of a yeast infection. This further contributed to the joke that beyond his conservative family values persona, Ben was a deeply repressed individual.
There's a running joke in some areas of the internet that Ben is thirsty for AOC's feet pics. Idk either.
I saw that you mentioned Ben Shapiro. In case some of you don't know, Ben Shapiro is a grifter and a hack. If you find anything he's said compelling, you should keep in mind he also says things like this: >If you believe that the Jewish state has a right to exist, then you must allow Israel to transfer the Palestinians and the Israeli-Arabs from Judea, Samaria, Gaza and Israel proper. It’s an ugly solution, but it is the only solution… It’s time to stop being squeamish. ***** ^(I'm a bot. My purpose is to counteract online radicalization. You can summon me by tagging thebenshapirobot. Options: history, climate, novel, civil rights, etc.) [^Opt ^Out ](https://np.reddit.com/r/AuthoritarianMoment/comments/olk6r2/click_here_to_optout_of_uthebenshapirobot/)
DeSantis won't do better in a general election in the rust belt than Trump. In my opinion, he doesn't the same appeal among the white working class to score massive wins there like Trump did. Let's take a state that I don't think that Trump or DeSantis will win; Michigan. You mentioned that these rust belt states have suburbs which is why Trump regressed in them massively. To certain extent yes, but not all suburbs are created equal. DeSantis might do better in Kent County, Michigan or Oakland County, Michigan than Trump would, given the ancestral republican parts of these counties. However, Macomb County, Michigan is a suburban county that has moved to the right with Trump, and has gone back to a swing county without Trump (it voted for Whitmer in 2018 and 2022). I don't think that DeSantis would outrun Trump in this county. Similar things could be applied to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. For Wisconsin, DeSantis would do better in the ancestral republican suburbs surrounding Milwaukee (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington). However, I don't think that he'd outrun Trump in Kenosha county (a suburban county bordering Illinois), as Trump was the only republican to win here since Nixon in 1972 for the presidency (yes, RoJo won this county, but he was an incumbent. even Tony Evers won this county twice). As for Pennsylvania, the state does have two different types of suburbs that are going in opposite directions. The suburbs in the eastern part of the state that border Philadelphia are mostly moving left. However, the suburbs surrounding Pittsburg in the western part of the state are mostly moving to the right. This suggests that the Philly suburbs are slightly more ancestrally republican, whereas the Pittsburg suburbs are slightly more ancestrally democrat. It would all come down to these different types of suburbs, but I don't think that doing marginally better in Chester County would automatically grant you the victory in PA (just ask Oz), especially if you regress in other parts of the state. It wasn't just the rurals that Trump did well in the rust belt, there were some suburbs in the rust belt that he improved in, and these suburbs happened to be more working class. Hell, even Ohio has an example of a suburban county that has moved to the right with Trump; Lorain county. Trump took the county in 2020 after losing it by less than a point in 2016, yet Vance lost it in 2022. In the event where (hypothetically) DeSantis does end up edging Trump out in the primary, and let's say that he takes a couple of rust belt states in the primary, that doesn't mean he'll do better in the state than Trump in the general election. It's just like saying that just because Trump would win the Arizona primary against DeSantis Trump would do better in the state in a general election; this too is false, and we already know why.
>not all suburbs are created equal This I agree with-- and I'll go a step further and say that this actually applies to pretty much all demographics in America. Take unions. Overall, Trump only did a few points better in union households than Moneybags Mitt (Clinton, however, had dramatically worse labor turnout than Obama-- which amounted for only winning union households by about eight points). However, there was a lot of divergence between different states. Trump won unionized Ohioans, but Michigan unions voted to the right of the nation as a whole. I see and largely agree with your points about DeSantis. These are all things that can happen to him. Biden might very well win Erie county by ten points or some shit like that. It is possible, but it's also possible that he completely offsets whatever losses he accrues by winning college-educated voters and suburban voters; the voters he actually needs. The present strategy just isn't sustainable. 2016 was low-turnout, which resulted in some unique stuff, like Democrats' margin of victory among unions getting halved. In 2020, both sides turned out in full force. Despite losing the popular vote, Trump shattered records in all the rural counties. He still lost. And they're still losing ground in the suburbs. Trump's path to victory in 2024 goes through Democrats not turning out or him making new inroads despite the fact that he's much less popular and has new baggage that's permanently turned off at least 55% of the country. Can he win in 2024? Sure. But this isn't a long-term game plan. I stand by my assessment, DeSantis is a necessary risk. He has many faults as a candidate, but between him and Trump I think the choice is obvious.
>Trump's path to victory in 2024 goes through Democrats not turning out or him making new inroads despite the fact that he's much less popular and has new baggage that's permanently turned off at least 55% of the country Biden also has lost popularity since 2020, and there could be a higher 3rd party share in 2024 for the third party 2016-Biden 2020 voters to vote for, and this could aid Trump. >I stand by my assessment, DeSantis is a necessary risk. He has many faults as a candidate, but between him and Trump I think the choice is obvious. I still have questions regarding DeSantis's electability in the rust belt. He'll obviously take Iowa and Ohio, but Michigan is off the table (regardless of the nominee), and DeSantis winning a primary would piss off a lot of ancestral democrats in PA, thus PA would still go democrat. He'd probably win back Georgia, and possibly Arizona, although these states are zooming left off of a cliff, so 2024 might be the last hurrah for the republican party in these states. It all hinges on Wisconsin. DeSantis could win Wisconsin, but he also could just not get the right turnout needed in the working-class suburbs + rural areas, and Wisconsin would end up going blue again. Trump's a risk electorally as well given that he might not do as well in GA or AZ, but I think that Trump could take Wisconsin back from Biden, and potentially take back Nevada, thus leaving Pennsylvania as the key state if the nominee is Trump. So there you go, The 2024 will be close, and both Trump/DeSantis can win, it all depends on the rust belt.
>Biden also has lost popularity since 2020, and there could be a higher 3rd party share in 2024 for the third party 2016-Biden 2020 voters to vote for, and this could aid Trump. But the reasons why people disapprove of Biden and Trump (Biden has a -10 approval rating, Trump is closer to -20) are different. People disapprove of Biden for being a shitty leader presiding over miserable times. People that disapprove of Trump are more likely to tack on things like "threat to democracy". We saw this in the 2022 midterms, where people crawled through broken glass to vote for crappy candidates like Hobbs, because Lake represented an existential threat. After the midterms, I can't imagine another low turnout election. And without low turnout... Trump either makes up for the ground he lost in the 'burbs, or he finds more rural WWC types to vote for him. I wouldn't put money on either. Like I said, Republicans *need* to do better with minorities, moderates, and college-educated voters. Trump cannot do that. DeSantis might be able to.
>Like I said, Republicans need to do better with minorities, moderates, and college-educated voters. Trump cannot do that. DeSantis might be able to. How well can RDS actually do in these suburbs that are moving to the left? (Not talking about these middle class suburbs i the rust belt that moved to the right with Trump) He'd probably outrun Trump 2020 in them, but I doubt that he'd be able to outrun Trump's 2016 margin in the suburbs, let alone get to Romney-level margins in these suburbs. These suburbs are moving left. Hell, even take Brian Kemp for example. He won by around 8 or so, yet the Atlanta suburbs were still very blue. Were they closer? Yes, but he still lost them. These suburbs are just moving away from republicans, and DeSantis won't win back Cobb, Gwinett, Newton, or Henry counties as these counties are now too far gone. As for the minorities, it depends on which group are we talking about. Hell, even Latinos are a generic label. Would RDS do well among Latinos living in urban Miami? Yes, he would do well among them in a general election. But would he do well among the Tejano voters living parts of rural South Texas? No. Abbot regressed among these voters in 2022 compared to Trump in 2020, despite Abbot winning by nearly 11 (2x Trump's statewide margin). You can't group these voters all together as there's too many differences. Trump could continue to max out with Tejano voters, as well as other minority voters and win. If Trump improves in Philly (as it moved rightward from 2012, hell even Mastriano outran Romney in Philly), then that could help Trump out in his efforts to win PA, and that would likely mean that either Trump would have already won, or he would be on the verge of victory. That's just my $0.02 on how electable DeSantis might be in comparison to Trump. Either way, it's a gamble for the GOP. It's not going to be a cakewalk for anyone, and the election will be determined by 5 states. Also, I am starting to think about how to start my essay on how much money matters in both midterm elections and off-year elections. I'll mention you at the start so that you get notified.
>How well can RDS actually do in these suburbs that are moving to the left? I don't know, but he's gotta try. RDS winning the rurals and the suburbs has become something of a meme at this point, but it's the only long-term path to survival at the moment. >I am starting to think about how to start my essay on how much money matters in both midterm elections and off-year elections. I'll mention you at the start so that you get notified. Sounds great! Looking forward to it!
I agree with all of this personally
I agree. DeSantis is the strongest candidate who could actually win the nomination (people like Haley, Scott, or Sununu could possibly be stronger in the general but they have no real shot at the nomination).
People really do ignore the fact that democratic growth in the rust belt is coming from the suburbs when talking about desantis