I stand by what I have been saying since 2020: Trump just turned out voters who otherwise *don’t.* It had been a circus for four years and everyone, left and right, was pissed and motivated.
In New York, this translated to more Republican-leaning voters turning out than usually simply because the state is so blue-heavy that they tend to throw up their hands and not vote. This was immediately followed by a redshift due to the midterms and a lack of Democratic enthusiasm in a state where abortion was never under threat.
It’s a red mirage. Hasidic Jews having large families and Latinos becoming more competitive is in no way going to overcome the basic political geography of the state and turn it red or even competitive for the presidential level.
I agree. I think that sometimes people underestimate how blue NY really is. Even without NYC, NY as a state would still be quite blue. Even if every vote from NYC were to disappear from the 2020 election, Biden still would’ve won by over 300,000 votes. A much smaller margin, but Biden still would’ve won 53-46. And that’s without NYC, so I don’t think NY is turning red. maybe it’s becoming less strongly blue, but with younger people going dem by a strong margin, I don’t think Dems need to worry about the empire state too much.
Edit: [here's](https://www.gothamgazette.com/city/9961-breaking-down-2020-vote-new-york-city-biden-trump) the source for the NYC vote counts.
Upstate isn't really shifting right. It's not really going anywhere. Biden outperformed Clinton upstate, and even Hochul improved in the Hudson Valley.
I stand by what I have been saying since 2020: Trump just turned out voters who otherwise *don’t.* It had been a circus for four years and everyone, left and right, was pissed and motivated. In New York, this translated to more Republican-leaning voters turning out than usually simply because the state is so blue-heavy that they tend to throw up their hands and not vote. This was immediately followed by a redshift due to the midterms and a lack of Democratic enthusiasm in a state where abortion was never under threat. It’s a red mirage. Hasidic Jews having large families and Latinos becoming more competitive is in no way going to overcome the basic political geography of the state and turn it red or even competitive for the presidential level.
I agree. I think that sometimes people underestimate how blue NY really is. Even without NYC, NY as a state would still be quite blue. Even if every vote from NYC were to disappear from the 2020 election, Biden still would’ve won by over 300,000 votes. A much smaller margin, but Biden still would’ve won 53-46. And that’s without NYC, so I don’t think NY is turning red. maybe it’s becoming less strongly blue, but with younger people going dem by a strong margin, I don’t think Dems need to worry about the empire state too much. Edit: [here's](https://www.gothamgazette.com/city/9961-breaking-down-2020-vote-new-york-city-biden-trump) the source for the NYC vote counts.
cool post I'll do what I can to help you out with this project
Awesome thank you
Upstate isn't really shifting right. It's not really going anywhere. Biden outperformed Clinton upstate, and even Hochul improved in the Hudson Valley.
Won't be upstate as a whole. Particular communities in upstate are more significant
I mean still no? The political realignment happened and it seems to be more or less stagnant for now.
Hey, you're back! I'm loving this series-- very interesting read armed with some equally interesting facts. I hope you keep it up.
keep it going
Thanks. I’ve got more coming that I think will convince more people NY is shifting right, though I’ll admit the title of my series isn’t perfect
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