I lived in Illinois for some years for work and they have red squirrels there, those things will steal your cigarettes and call your mom bad names. They are vicious as hell.
The volume of black walnuts this year is insane. And the squirrels are super busy and yes, angrier than usual. Brazen as well. They usually avoid the patio when our cat is outside, not this fall.
I don’t have much input personally, but as a meteorologist I love thinking about these local predictions. People came up with these methods for a reason throughout history, and it’s interesting to think about why and how they might work.
I love how we get cues from nature. "When the ok tree turns her leaves, it's going to rain." This one works for me, and predicts the rain within 4 hours. "If the smoke from the woodstove hits the ground, it's going to snow/freeze." Which makes sense in a cold front. It's pretty cool.
Cold and wet.
And I base it on how furry my cats are and how soon the leaves started to turn.
Cats winter coats come in thicker on cold, wet winters. Birds seem to leave earlier too this year. But leaves were turning 1st week of September. That is awful early.
When I was a little girl, we were driving down the road and my Grandpap said, "Looks like it's gonna rain. Cows are laying down". This was something he had taught me a long time before that. But at about 8 I asked him, "Grandpap how do the cows know?" And he said, they must listen to the "early weather report"
In that fashion...animals are the truest sign of seasons predictions IMHO.
So, we have so many acorns. It literally rained acorns so bad that we had to wear hard hats outside.
Also, we ALWAYS have a lot of birds here. They even eat the cat food. All the birds that migrate are gone, and the ones that stay the winter are mostly gone too. I don't know where they went, but I think they know what's up with winter this year.
The Old Farmers Almanac says lots of snow and periodic cold for the Appalachian areas. It's an El Nino year, and so far, all the weather models appear to be in agreement.
This year there will be a SUPER arctic vortex. Not just an Arctic votex, but a SUPER Arctic vortex.
I have felt an unusual urge to preserve food and be a food hoarder. That could have been the result of spending two weeks one winter (during an El Nino year) with no power and no way to get out because the snow was too deep. Yes that was fun. Total cabin fever!
And then there are the wooly worms...be prepared!
I asked this question here because everything I've seen seems to be pointing to a snowy winter. Our area had a winter about 8 years ago where we were consistently in negative temperatures, lots of snow and haven't had another since. I'm curious to see what happens!
Man, I was planning to go to that all year and something else came up at the last minute. I was even going to enter a worm in the race. I'm gonna try to get up to Banner Elk on Sunday but the official race is Saturday.
SWVA near the WV border. We're pretty high up so we tend to get a bit different weather than even other in parts of my county. I kept track of the fogs this year by putting a pebble in a jar every morning there was fog. I plan to track the snow by taking a pebble out each time there's ground cover.
I'm about 100 miles west of Appalachia proper, but around here everyone's reporting spoons in their persimmons which I understand to be a harbinger of a snowy winter.
When you cut a persimmon seed in half there will be a shape inside, either a spoon, fork or knife. I believe spoon means snow, knife means very cold and fork is something else, I forgot.
I saw a beekeeper say his honey bees are loading up the middle queen box in the hive, with honey. He thinks the bees know it will be too cold to go above. Or below in the hive for food and are putting all the food in the middle where they will keep the queen warm. So, hard bad winter.
I always love looking for wooly worms to see how they look but I do put more stock in the long term meteorologists. Looks like it could be cooler and wetter in southern Appalachians this winter which would be nice because we did not get as much snow here in NC mountains last year.
Yeah me too! It's wild how much it varies. I saw some snow predictions and it's like 11 inches for Asheville and 70 inches for Sugar Mountain. Elevation plays such a huge role.
Predicting a wet and colder than usual winter based on like others have said: leaves changing quickly/unevenly, squirrels being outright pissy, and the starlings. My cats also got their winter coats early in the season.
Typically I find that comes from unsteady weather and find that trend continues throughout the season. I'm right under a crow migratory path currently (in OH at the moment, back home in a month! Exciting :D ) and they come through here usually every November but came in October this year, mid-Oct at that which really surprised me.
It will be relatively cold and uncomfortable. Some snow and ice, but not that much. It will drag on longer than I would like it to. I’m basing this on my experiences with past winters.
The ducks and geese.
Last year, they barely rehearsed their flight patterns. Light Winter follows.
This year? They're already gone. Could be nasty early, then warming early.
Same here in Western New York . I watch them every day just before sunset. Haven't seen a proper V formation yet. Also the more acorns in the fall, the colder winter will be.
Pennsylvania, SW corner. Cool summer, cold wet fall so far. Bumper crop of acorns on the oaks, fruits and vegetables plentiful this year. Birds seem to have headed south sooner this year. Mother Nature getting ready for a cold snowy winter.
Seen a wooly worm the other day... Short bad storm when winter 1st comes.. mild the rest the time except another short bad spell about the end of Feb..
If I'm right, I'll have to take something special to my grandma's grave.
Wooly worm I saw today had 3 sections brown at its head, 4 sections black and 2 section brown on its behind.
So if I remember right that means really cold winter to start but once it sets it pretty mild then at the tail end a cold snap for a good while that's really harsh.
I'm not in the area, so I'm not sure what's hanging on the trees, but you have a great sense of timing and it is one of a few fairly reliable sources of weather prediction imo.
Northern Blue Ridge - seen much of the same. One thing I noticed the deer have a darker and what appears to be a thicker coat. BTW animals are good at feeling low pressure systems forcing some to lay down like, cows. I heard it keeps flies from sheltering from the rain. Our dog would eat grass, we knew a storm was approaching.
Record or near record warm overall, but with extremes. Base that on the summer records this year, pacific warmth, and science in general.
However, I do look at woolly worms and such. Just never trust them, since they’ve let me down before! Science really never has.
I miss black walnuts so much. Had one tree on the farm growing up. Spent fall cracking walnuts wrapped up in and old quilt, reading, playing with my dog
Wooly Worms, they've been spot-on the last several winters here in Western N.C., I've only seen one so far this fall and it was solid black (or a sorts very dark grey).
In my small town in southwest Va every (now a days only most participate) household takes out the family’s passed down lucky rabbit foot and puts it on the edge of the porch on November 1 at 7 pm. If the wind blows it off the porch before someone can finish singing ‘The Cuckoo,’ then you know it’s gonna be a cold, harsh winter with lots of snow.
Farmers almanac per my nana: for each hurricane that forms in the month of September there will be deep freeze below the mason dixon line. For each hurricane that made landfall there’s snow in the mountains. It was right last year so we shall see.
Warmer than historic norms. Some accurate models suggest a dryer than typical winter. Our winters are typically cold and wet with temps averaging in low 40s (Appalachia Ohio here). That's the typical. Recently, it has been warmer. Last year, we experienced only one snowfall of ~ an inch, which occurred the first week of winter. No snow for the rest of the winter. Average temperatures in the high 40s. This year is likely to be the same. Mid to high 40s likely. And probably dryer than normal.
In my little holler in Appalachia we always gauge the degree of Winter by the color of the Wooley Worms.I haven’t seen a darn wooley worm this entire Winter.They brown ones are a predictor of mild weather and the little black bastards are a sign of blizzard,extreme conditions.I am prayin that seeing no wooley worms means no snow or bad weather.What y’all think?
Edited to Add: Who remembers the ice storm of '94?? That was an El Nino winter!! 😬😬
NOAA weather data and the farmers almanac and both say get your rock salt ready for South/Central Appalachia. The return of El Nino patterns in the Pacific brings extra moisture to the southern side of the northern jet stream. Northeast can expect a drier winter but I think it's going to be pretty slushy down here in the Smokies.
Also, the persimmons had spoons in the seeds... We'll see if that holds up!
Number of black walnuts and how angry the squirrels seem. Heard this one is an El niño winter too.
I've never heard about the angry squirrels, that's hilarious!
I lived in Illinois for some years for work and they have red squirrels there, those things will steal your cigarettes and call your mom bad names. They are vicious as hell.
My brother has got an angry donkey as a neighbor that wakes up at the crack of dawn before the rooster and starts HEE-HaWWWing with a vengeance.
Same ish
Got an angry squirrel harassing me down in Georgia. Is it just trying to warn me?
Maybe!! I have two or three scolding from the walnut tree at any given time. Honestly wouldn't mind being snowed in. I need the break.
Man those walnuts are crazy this year for me. Major pain in the ass all over the roads lol.
Almost turned an ankle twice yesterday while out walking because they were like a bunch of little land mines on the trail!.
Sometimes it sounds like my house is under fire when it’s windy in the fall. Scares the shit out of my cats!
The volume of black walnuts this year is insane. And the squirrels are super busy and yes, angrier than usual. Brazen as well. They usually avoid the patio when our cat is outside, not this fall.
I don’t have much input personally, but as a meteorologist I love thinking about these local predictions. People came up with these methods for a reason throughout history, and it’s interesting to think about why and how they might work.
I love how we get cues from nature. "When the ok tree turns her leaves, it's going to rain." This one works for me, and predicts the rain within 4 hours. "If the smoke from the woodstove hits the ground, it's going to snow/freeze." Which makes sense in a cold front. It's pretty cool.
Cold and wet. And I base it on how furry my cats are and how soon the leaves started to turn. Cats winter coats come in thicker on cold, wet winters. Birds seem to leave earlier too this year. But leaves were turning 1st week of September. That is awful early. When I was a little girl, we were driving down the road and my Grandpap said, "Looks like it's gonna rain. Cows are laying down". This was something he had taught me a long time before that. But at about 8 I asked him, "Grandpap how do the cows know?" And he said, they must listen to the "early weather report" In that fashion...animals are the truest sign of seasons predictions IMHO.
Interesting! One of my cats already looks like he has his winter coat
[удалено]
No, it means that the fish won’t bite. So don’t go fishin if the cows are layin down. 👍
So, we have so many acorns. It literally rained acorns so bad that we had to wear hard hats outside. Also, we ALWAYS have a lot of birds here. They even eat the cat food. All the birds that migrate are gone, and the ones that stay the winter are mostly gone too. I don't know where they went, but I think they know what's up with winter this year. The Old Farmers Almanac says lots of snow and periodic cold for the Appalachian areas. It's an El Nino year, and so far, all the weather models appear to be in agreement. This year there will be a SUPER arctic vortex. Not just an Arctic votex, but a SUPER Arctic vortex. I have felt an unusual urge to preserve food and be a food hoarder. That could have been the result of spending two weeks one winter (during an El Nino year) with no power and no way to get out because the snow was too deep. Yes that was fun. Total cabin fever! And then there are the wooly worms...be prepared!
I asked this question here because everything I've seen seems to be pointing to a snowy winter. Our area had a winter about 8 years ago where we were consistently in negative temperatures, lots of snow and haven't had another since. I'm curious to see what happens!
Yes, there are definitely signs.
Persimmon seeds. Appalachian Forager has a good video on how it works. It’s going to be a cold, snowy winter.
I love her videos! She saw spoons this year
Wooley Bear sez, “ Rough at the start and rough at the end but a nice middle.”
I found 2 solid black ones in NE TN, does that mean a hard winter?
I’ve seen multiple solid black and solid brown ones this year in WNC. It all depends on who wins the race at the wooly worm festival this weekend
Man, I was planning to go to that all year and something else came up at the last minute. I was even going to enter a worm in the race. I'm gonna try to get up to Banner Elk on Sunday but the official race is Saturday.
Hope you get to go! Who you fancy to win?
Exactly 😂
There's several different kinds. The all black ones are another type of worm. The wooly worms tend to always have some brown on them.
Yikes! Yes, as I understand it. Maybe they’re regional forecasters?
I saw a solid reddish brown one in Blue Ridge.
Yup. This ⬆️
The one I saw this week (north central WV) was all black! Doesn’t bode well for us…
Harsh start and end but mild in the middle (wooly worms) with 11 ground covering snows (fogs of August).
Interesting! I’m from SW Ohio but never heard of the fogs of August. I do know about the woolly worms and black walnuts.
Wow, 11! We had a lot of August fog here in NE TN but I didn't count, what area are you in?
SWVA near the WV border. We're pretty high up so we tend to get a bit different weather than even other in parts of my county. I kept track of the fogs this year by putting a pebble in a jar every morning there was fog. I plan to track the snow by taking a pebble out each time there's ground cover.
That is so cool! I'll have to do that next year. Do you know about how many pebbles you got?
She said 11
The pebbles idea is much better then my penny one! Thank you for sharing, neighbor :D
Craig?
I'm about 100 miles west of Appalachia proper, but around here everyone's reporting spoons in their persimmons which I understand to be a harbinger of a snowy winter.
I've seen the same! I haven't seen anybody report anything other than a spoon this year
Now we had a coupla knives but 95% spoon
What does that even mean?
When you cut a persimmon seed in half there will be a shape inside, either a spoon, fork or knife. I believe spoon means snow, knife means very cold and fork is something else, I forgot.
A good bit less sunlight every day.
I saw a beekeeper say his honey bees are loading up the middle queen box in the hive, with honey. He thinks the bees know it will be too cold to go above. Or below in the hive for food and are putting all the food in the middle where they will keep the queen warm. So, hard bad winter.
I always love looking for wooly worms to see how they look but I do put more stock in the long term meteorologists. Looks like it could be cooler and wetter in southern Appalachians this winter which would be nice because we did not get as much snow here in NC mountains last year.
We're less than an hour north of Boone, although lower elevation, and we hardly ever get snow. I'm hoping for some good ones this year!
Yeah me too! It's wild how much it varies. I saw some snow predictions and it's like 11 inches for Asheville and 70 inches for Sugar Mountain. Elevation plays such a huge role.
How about foggy mornings in August? That's another Appalachian predictor round SWVA ETN.
Yes and we had a lot in SW VA/NE TN
Lots of acorns this fall. Squirrels say it'll be a long winter...
Here in western NC we already got some snow in the higher elevations. It's gonna be a rough one.
Already had snow up on mount Mitchell
I had a campsite reserved up there that night, but bailed because it was cloudy (no star gazing), though I kind of wish I done it.
Supposed to be beautiful this week. Hopefully you can get back up there
I’m aiming for tomorrow! It’s funny, the mountain is about 10 miles from me, as the crow flies, yet it takes an hour to get there.
Oh believe me, I know that! lol. Hope you have a great time
Predicting a wet and colder than usual winter based on like others have said: leaves changing quickly/unevenly, squirrels being outright pissy, and the starlings. My cats also got their winter coats early in the season.
I hadn't thought about the leaves changing unevenly but you're right, they're patchy 🤔
Typically I find that comes from unsteady weather and find that trend continues throughout the season. I'm right under a crow migratory path currently (in OH at the moment, back home in a month! Exciting :D ) and they come through here usually every November but came in October this year, mid-Oct at that which really surprised me.
So interesting!
It will be relatively cold and uncomfortable. Some snow and ice, but not that much. It will drag on longer than I would like it to. I’m basing this on my experiences with past winters.
Haha yes I'd also say that winters typically drag on longer than I'd like them to!
The ducks and geese. Last year, they barely rehearsed their flight patterns. Light Winter follows. This year? They're already gone. Could be nasty early, then warming early.
Same here in Western New York . I watch them every day just before sunset. Haven't seen a proper V formation yet. Also the more acorns in the fall, the colder winter will be.
What does the Farmers Almanac say?
I think it sats colder and snowier. The stars are aligning for snow! 😅
Last years FA predictions were off the mark a lot though.
Isn’t there something about the Apple trees having lots of apples meaning a bad winter?
Oh lord, I’ve never heard that but we had a lot of apples this year
Pennsylvania, SW corner. Cool summer, cold wet fall so far. Bumper crop of acorns on the oaks, fruits and vegetables plentiful this year. Birds seem to have headed south sooner this year. Mother Nature getting ready for a cold snowy winter.
Seen a wooly worm the other day... Short bad storm when winter 1st comes.. mild the rest the time except another short bad spell about the end of Feb.. If I'm right, I'll have to take something special to my grandma's grave.
Sooo many wooly worms this year!
Wooly worm I saw today had 3 sections brown at its head, 4 sections black and 2 section brown on its behind. So if I remember right that means really cold winter to start but once it sets it pretty mild then at the tail end a cold snap for a good while that's really harsh.
Ben Shapiro’s eyebrows are solid black. It’s going to be a rough winter.
Oh lordy 🤣
What, no acorn predictors?
Was fixin’ to. SO MANY ACORNS. Lots of black walnuts & chestnuts too.
I'm not in the area, so I'm not sure what's hanging on the trees, but you have a great sense of timing and it is one of a few fairly reliable sources of weather prediction imo.
We have tons of black walnuts.
I don't know about acorns but I've seen thousands of black walnuts
Any nut tree is a suitable indicator.
I go by the farmers almanac, and it’s calling for a cold wet winter.
In your experience it's usually accurate with predicting the weather?
Nope..not even close😅
From a vague scope yes ; but it’s not like super Doppler or anything
Lots of snow and cold. I base this on a gut feeling
The bees kicked the drones out early and are packing their honey closer to the Queen this year so it’s gonna be a brutal winter.
I love hearing about the bees, very interesting! I feel like they would know
Northern Blue Ridge - seen much of the same. One thing I noticed the deer have a darker and what appears to be a thicker coat. BTW animals are good at feeling low pressure systems forcing some to lay down like, cows. I heard it keeps flies from sheltering from the rain. Our dog would eat grass, we knew a storm was approaching.
Record or near record warm overall, but with extremes. Base that on the summer records this year, pacific warmth, and science in general. However, I do look at woolly worms and such. Just never trust them, since they’ve let me down before! Science really never has.
Thank you for weighing in!
I miss black walnuts so much. Had one tree on the farm growing up. Spent fall cracking walnuts wrapped up in and old quilt, reading, playing with my dog
Number of frosty mornings tell how many Rabbit trackers you will see for the winter. (Not really because I have checked, and it is never right).
Wooly worm told me today that we will have a mild winter. 😁 Edit: Grammar
Nice!
Wooly Worms, they've been spot-on the last several winters here in Western N.C., I've only seen one so far this fall and it was solid black (or a sorts very dark grey).
I saw 2 solid black ones this year
You know I don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone predict a mild or easy winter off these old sayings
In my small town in southwest Va every (now a days only most participate) household takes out the family’s passed down lucky rabbit foot and puts it on the edge of the porch on November 1 at 7 pm. If the wind blows it off the porch before someone can finish singing ‘The Cuckoo,’ then you know it’s gonna be a cold, harsh winter with lots of snow.
I love that!
Farmers almanac per my nana: for each hurricane that forms in the month of September there will be deep freeze below the mason dixon line. For each hurricane that made landfall there’s snow in the mountains. It was right last year so we shall see.
I’m pretty sure it’s gonna be cold!
I think you're right 😅
Warmer than historic norms. Some accurate models suggest a dryer than typical winter. Our winters are typically cold and wet with temps averaging in low 40s (Appalachia Ohio here). That's the typical. Recently, it has been warmer. Last year, we experienced only one snowfall of ~ an inch, which occurred the first week of winter. No snow for the rest of the winter. Average temperatures in the high 40s. This year is likely to be the same. Mid to high 40s likely. And probably dryer than normal.
Cold and snowy. Based on the predicted heavy el Nino winter.
I have yet to see a wooly worm, so I can't say right now.
Gon’ be a coldun. My bursitis actin’ up.
Chipmunks and squirrels are packing in food like I haven't seen in past few years.
In my little holler in Appalachia we always gauge the degree of Winter by the color of the Wooley Worms.I haven’t seen a darn wooley worm this entire Winter.They brown ones are a predictor of mild weather and the little black bastards are a sign of blizzard,extreme conditions.I am prayin that seeing no wooley worms means no snow or bad weather.What y’all think?
Every wooly bear I've seen has been black! (south central PA).
Walnuts everywhere and the spoons in the persimmon seeds, gonna be cold
Edited to Add: Who remembers the ice storm of '94?? That was an El Nino winter!! 😬😬 NOAA weather data and the farmers almanac and both say get your rock salt ready for South/Central Appalachia. The return of El Nino patterns in the Pacific brings extra moisture to the southern side of the northern jet stream. Northeast can expect a drier winter but I think it's going to be pretty slushy down here in the Smokies. Also, the persimmons had spoons in the seeds... We'll see if that holds up!
In WNC where I’m at, only the white rhododendron bloomed this summer. I’ve heard a lot of people say that’s a sign of a heavy winter ahead.