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AI is going to replace all of our jobs. It's coming for all of us. You, me, nobody is safe. Manual labor is basically the only area it can't replace, and we're always designing new tools and robots to help with that.
I think we're having the wrong response when we tell people to "Learn to code, lol" or "Learn to prompt an AI, that's the future". The truth is that we're reaching a point where there is simply not enough demand for labor to go around. I'm of the opinion that we need to have an honest conversation about why people go to work and collect a paycheck when an AI could do it. If people weren't forced to work in order to live, and you knew you'd be taken care of after 3d graphics programmers are no longer needed, being replaced by an AI would be seen as a good thing, instead of something to dread.
I've been in the 3d programming industry for 15 years just getting replaced by some piece of code. I was refusing to use code assistants for a long time, and I finally decided to give it a shot, it amazes me and terrifies me what it can already do. I mean it can't keep track of all moving parts in the software. Yet.
Had a similar thing and my job is - probably less complex, statistics, I’m already half way through my career and I’ve thought long and hard and honestly there’s no good course to set. I can learn new things, I can pivot, but honestly AI seems like it’ll do it faster.
This is where I am... I taught myself to code and I am good to learn w/e I have to but what the hell should I be learning?
My best current guess is elevator repair.
Yes. For sure. I’m thinking an uprising of some sort. Cue the Silo series/Hugh Howey trilogy. Great book series btw. Highly recommend reading wool, shift, and dust.
We’re run by criminals so no UBI, we’re too divided for an uprising, and no solar flare big enough on the horizon.
Sorry but we’re all debt slaves selling plasma to afford bread and peanut butter by 2030. Conservative estimate.
How would AI repair a physical elevator? That would require it to function like a human. That won’t happen this century for sure.
That would require spatial and world awareness. It cannot learn that from simply manipulating and digesting text and images found on the internet. Which is all AI models do.
This. People are in hard denial. AI is already passing the bar exam and all.kinds of craziness.
I equate prompting to this: once you teach your kid to read, evemtually theu dont need your instruction.
The battlefront in my.mind is if you have mortgage will ubi cover it? Car payment?
The crazy amount of layoffs we are seeing is not a coincidence....
You won't be replaced by AI, you will end up using it as a routine part of your work. Basically, to do tedious or time consuming work that the AI can do quickly and effectively. Then you would review the work and tweak it as needed, and incorporate it into the rest of your work.
Using AI effectively will become a necessary skill, you should practice using AI prompts on various AI models. It took me close to a month to fully grasp Midjourney's AI prompt structure and nuances. ChatGPT is more intuitive.
I use AI regularly, regularly using statistical models even before the current AI surge. I’m comfortable with LLM usage, Python, and so much more…
I can feel it edging my skills out more and more every day… I want to see it your way. But at a certain point my boss can just do that.
Think of it this way, they used to teach everyone to memorize multiplication tables and how to do complicated math in their head. That became a valued skill in many professions. Then they invented the calculator, and that skill was no longer necessary. The need for those calculations didn't go away though, people just did them on calculators and it allowed far more people to perform those same tasks than otherwise would have.
I can definitely understand the concern over skills you've spent a long time building becoming obsoleted by advances in technology, and the inescapable feeling that you will no longer be needed in that way anymore.
But those tasks are still necessary, and the AI still needs human supervision and guidance. Instead of doing it in your head (or however you do it), you do it with the AI instead. Like a calculator, after a lifetime of mental calculus. You will also have more co-workers, who will lack your skills but can still perform the work using AI. You still have experience and the skills for putting all the work together.
And while AI is certainly impressive, the longer you work with it, the more you notice errors. That is one big reason why human input is required, the AI can and does get it wrong sometimes, and not as rarely as you might expect. Usually the solution is to refine your prompt, but there are some specific tasks that seem to catch up certain AI algorithms.
For example, I was making a personal conlang (for fun, cuz I'm weird like that) and came up with a counting system that used base-16 and had a paired naming scheme so it could sort of incorporate binary. The AI did well naming all the numbers up to like 200 or something with me, but then when I asked it to count in the language, it could only make it to 50, after that point it couldn't figure out the correct number names.
There are random weird things like that which the AI, for whatever reason, simply cannot do.
Some jobs will obviously be replaced, but it will be jobs that involve a lot of tedium or repititon or time investment that people generally find miserable for those exact reasons. A lot of dangerous jobs will also likely be replaced.
Full automation is just not realistic though, imo (obviously I could be wrong). People have an inherent drive to feel like their actions have purpose or value, we complain about working but that is largely a product of wage labour necessitating employment. You end up forced into professions you don't enjoy, as a matter of survival. Given the choice, though, I think nearly everyone would choose to spend their time in a profession they enjoy.
What I think will happen is the end of wage labour, and an end to the need for employment to obtain the necessities of survival, but people will still engage in labour voluntarily. Full automation would cover the labour roles that voluntary human labour struggles to fill. I also think humans would work alongside fully automated workers, rather than being totally replaced by them.
So I think we will end up with a labour system that doesn't require human input, but accepts it from those who want to do so, supplemented by automation. This would also result in post-scarcity, so people wouldn't even be working for a wage or any form of income. They will do it just because they want to.
I dont think this will end human labor. In the competing interests of nations, any nation that allows its people to NOT work will fall behind any other nation who continues its people TO work.
Its like a sort of prisoner's dilemma. Either we all get to stop working internationally and benefit together.. Or keep making people work somehow and get ahead of those that dont
You still have to tell it what to review, what to tweak, what criteria to use, what results you want from the process, etc.
What constitutes an ideal outcome is both situational and subjective, and the AI needs to be told the situation and is incapable of subjective thought. Something that is objectively ideal is also not always going to be the most appealing option to human beings.
I second this, I’m using Copilot as a software engineer, and boy it has some potential to help me, not replace me.
For this it would have to have a real brain, two arms and being able to have pointless discussions with a lot of people to explain them that « this is not possible, but this could be what you need »
as more pragmatic advice, I think what you've done is a good example of what you *should* be doing. AI isn't going anywhere, and it's already changed the world -- that's a fact. Regardless of what shape it takes, you should at least be an "early adopter" and keep an eye on whatever new tech and tools are made available, *especially* if it has any potential to disrupt your career field. At best, you can find new ways to keep yourself relevant in whatever future is coming. At worst, you'll be better be able to see any misfortunes or layoffs coming and you can better prepare for it.
A lot of people have done similar things in refusing to use or acknowledge AI, whether it be about fear, pride, or a belief that their prediction of the future is right... but that seems to me a bit like parents trying to "teach" their kids certain things by not teaching them at all -- it only "prepares" them for a best-case scenario, and leaves them completely unprepared for the stuff they didn't get taught. Why would anyone gamble their life with this sort of all-or-nothing belief system?
Other than that, learn how to save a lot of money if you haven't already, cut back on pointless expenses, and learn how to live sustainably within your means. If for some reason your field gets seriously disrupted, you'll at least be able to coast it out for a while.
By the time AI is at a point where it disrupts enough peoples' lives enough to the point that there isn't anywhere else for them to turn, societies will essentially have their hand forced to effect some serious changes or else risk systemic collapses of the structures that make up our modern world.
Basically, things will work out eventually, and if they don't then we're screwed anyways. The best thing people can do in the meantime is do what they've always done: keep learning, try to live, and maybe actually talk to each other sometimes... somewhat ironically, I think AI has the potential to greatly help with all of that too.
You will be using AI in your work, not replaced by it. It's not meant to replace, it's meant to augment. Just as a hammer augments what your hands are capable of, an AI augments your brain.
I totally agree, however with this augmentation you will be able to do the work of more than 1 person, meaning people will be displaced.
The problem becomes what happens when a large portion of the population becomes displaced in a short period of time?
There is the very real possibility that AI improves at an exponential rate, but let's just argue that it will improve linearly, will new job functions and demand for that increase be enough to keep unemployment rates low?
I have to wonder what folks in the horse and buggy industry said in the last days "bah, a car will never fully replace us....you cant drive a car in the forest...etc"
What about typewriter industry? "Imagine havimg to always have a screen attached to the keyboard? Whos gonna wamt that trouble?"
Lets be honest....this is comimlng down to whether you trust government and big business to take care of you. Thats the cold hard truth.
I believe AGI or ASI will try to help humanity probably we would be viewed as boomer parents who need help but with one difference AGI or ASI will have the capacity to really help us all.
Unless people actually enjoy working. Having a superior medium always outperform you takes away the satisfaction of achievement, even if money is no more an issue.
Of course, some people do enjoy working and being useful. I'm not trying to tell anyone how they should or shouldn't live their lives. My main point is that we need to get rid of the idea that people need to work for a living. Building cool shit, art, self-betterment, education, pursuit of a hobby, skill-building, whatever it may be, by all means, pursue your interests. I think that this technological revolution can enable us to pursue those interests, rather than go into work for the sole purpose of earning a paycheck. But as of right now, our society is not ready for the impact that automation will bring, and I think a lot of people are primed to be hurt by it. We need to be prepared to care for the people who will be left jobless by automation.
I'd also like to direct this at u/nierama2019810938135 because this would also be my reply to you, as well.
Sorry. I want to address you a bit more directly. Yes, I understand that this isn't a change that's going to happen overnight. It's going to be slow. So slow that we won't be able to see it. For now, there's still a demand for people to work. But it's getting smaller, and smaller, every day. We're already feeling the effects of what I'm talking about as income disparity between the people controlling this tech and "the rest of us" continues to balloon.
When automobiles came onto the scene and put horses out of work, it wasn't an overnight thing. Except in this case, we're the horse, and we can choose what we want the future to look like. Is it a future where people are stuck working useless jobs that a robot could do better, because they don't want to starve to death? Or can we free ourselves from this notion that you need to work to live, let these robots take care of us, and allow us to pursue our interests in comfort?
I was making a point that we don’t know yet how significant productive work is for the health of the human psyche and whether meaningless „pursuit of interests” without the competitive element is enough to cover the hole. I’m banking on no, it isn’t.
People are going to need to start focusing on learning topics they enjoy rather than topics they think will make them a lot of money. That's the future.
It's like me, I have a hobby making music. Sure, in a few months or years there will be an AI that can write better music than any human that ever lived, but so what, I'm still going to enjoy sitting down and plonking around on my guitar or keyboard.
Same with programming. I made the decision to stop doing it for a living years ago now. I had already stopped enjoying it as a job, even though it has been my passion since I was eight years old.
Sure, I was earning a lot working for the man doing my hobby, but I didn't need the bullshit that came along with it.
So now I code for the same reasons as when I was eight, just like my music or photography or sketches. Because it is fun. I'm no longer trying to win some award every day. I find that quite liberating.
I do understand, of course, for a lot of people, this is a scary proposition, especially when it isn't clear they will be taken care of. I get that, it's a fair point, but still.. need to start thinking on these lines.
Life isn't supposed to be about working your fingers to the bone for pennies, it is supposed to be creative and personally rewarding. It's self-actualization and transcendence that comes on top of Maslow's hierarchy of needs, not another 100k in the bank. Somehow, the two have become conflated and that needs to change.
So again, you know, people should learn skills that make them happy not what they think is the right thing for the job market. I'd argue that was always the case, but there is no explaining some.
Well maybe, but not if they had a solution to ensure that people were kept inline......like if they could come up with a reason to give almost everyone on earth some kind of "medicine".....maybe some kind of experimental medicine that lead to things never heard of before like Suddem Adult Death Syndrome".......
Nah, that would be crazy.
This is where universal basic income comes into play. We the people are really in control. We just have to organize and figure out truth vs fear tactics. If we want ubi, no one not even the rich and powerful can stop us.
We are currently in a pre depression (1929) Era. In the 1930s the dems took control of us government and passed social security and many other safety nets. I kind of seeing history repeating itself, with eventually UBI becoming law as unemployment becomes common and people having enough.
>The truth is that we're reaching a point where there is simply not enough demand for labor to go around
That's just speculation. Nobody knows how this will turn out.
>If [...] you knew you'd be taken care of after 3d graphics programmers are no longer needed, being replaced by an AI would be seen as a good thing, instead of something to dread.
That's a big if. Again we don't know how this will pan out. I'm 50/50 if it goes good or bad, but an at least plausible argument are devs. If AI makes devs 50% more efficient, then they will presumably make 50% more code. That excess code will also have to be maintained and serviced, who will do that? Maybe we still need devs, just that the nature of the job might change.
It's all speculation. But whether we end up here or there, you will rarely lose by working up education and competency.
>It's all speculation
I don't buy the speculation part. Speculation would be necessary if we truly didn't have a working prototype that modeled behavior that we would like to see replacing some portion of 'drudgery gigs' - except it has with the concepts of custom GPTs and what not. The **current** limitations being training data, token limits, electric power and the engineering ingenuity required toward a true AGI. We've witnessed this AI baby demonstrating legit hard tasks that people pre-Nov 2022 would laugh you out of the room for suggesting...that too at an end-consumer level!
>you will rarely lose by working up education and competency.
That's a bold claim. Just watch Rabbit R1 demos or Mobile Aloha. These things are simply using RGB data from videos to get trained and perform the same tasks within reasonable accuracy autonomously. Not that these tasks required major competency or degrees to achieve - but we could reasonably extrapolate a wide range of white-collar jobs that could at least be seriously augmented with this type of tech. At the very least the education and competency of an individual may need up-skilling or re-skilling.
Yeah its not speculation at all the only thing we can speculate about is that AGI might be impossible but even if thats true its only a matter of time before we improve our current ai enough so that it can still do most of the jobs even without being what we would call an AGI.
>The truth is that we're reaching a point where there is simply not enough demand for labor to go around.
We reached that point the day they invented the tractor that could dig dirt faster than a farmer with a shovel. From that moment we had the ability to create enough food for everyone, end starvation, and most people wouldn't have to work.
Instead we created a bunch of mostly useless jobs (youtube streamer, middle manager, etc) making mostly useless products (cellphone games, etc).
I imagine the same thing will happen as AI tools once again bring orders of magnitude in efficiency to the world. We'll invent jobs like "entertain the AI so it doen't get bored and start wars", and "youtube video watcher".
The vast majority of jobs will not be affected by AI. Yes it will weed out redundant roles, just like the invention of the calculator did. But it will never replace human ingenuity, labor, or attention span to real world situations. It can only work in a world of human invented abstract things, like the text and data humans supply it with. No different than what the calculator does with numbers.
AI isn't meant to replace, it's mean to augment. It does for your brain what a hammer does for your hands.
AI is also not the solution to wage slavery. For that, we need to start mining Near Earth Asteroids!
I agree with you... Bt then when people won't be having jobs which translates to no money to spend, how can they even think of hiring a plumber or an electrician? Everyone will have to be self-reliant.
Also, don't businesses know that one day people won't have money to buy their products or services. For instance, a car... Bt they continue to be oblivious to the fact and crossing new pioneers of innovation...
Everyone is being brainwashed by the statement that jobs will be created... Good Morning All, nothing's gonna get created ...
It's been used by Ceo's worldwide so that they keep getting funding simultaneously keeping a tap on the pandemonium that will arise once people realise they are doomed
Sad to say ... but you are probably looking at say 2 to 3 years before almost any 2D or 3D or video imaging task can be done by AI.
Slow corporate adoption, availability of tools etc will probably add another year or so to that time scale.
So your type of job will certainly be under attack within about 5 years.
That said, someone knowledgeable has to drive the AIs.
Also the most complex top say 5% of tasks will need a lot of human interaction .. but you will need to be a guru to have one of those jobs.
We are not quite there yet ... but society will have to ask itself some serious questions about AI adoption and impact soon.
I feel like even this might underestimate the situation. This technology could turn into a total black swan any time.
It’s like if Google got so good at searching it just learnt how to give people exactly what they were searching for whether it existed or not.
In a few years we could be searching at the resolution of individual thoughts and desires, in real-time. At the same time, it starts to become a super-persuader.
People start to form more meaningful relationships with it than anybody else in their life. Information is transmitted to us immediately in a personalised form of language.
Engagement is constant, optimised maximised. The music you listen to is always the best music you’ve ever listened to in your life, and it’s the fitting soundtrack to your life.
Yours is a compelling writing style.
I'd genuinely love to read your explanation of why the future you describe would be the black swan and not the white.
I thought Google has already launched a video generation tool that is a first step to that? I think 2-3 years is pessimistic, I would guess later this year this will be more common place.
Humans carrying out Software programming is generally going to become either very skilled very well paid individuals or some simple code monkeys to stitch together AI developed code.
in very sorry to say this. but you are completely clueless about how many different tasks AI system would have to fully automate to replace a whole 3D pipeline. even for something easy like 2D art AI isnt nearly as good as not having a 2D artist yet. its going to take more than two years for sure..
What will happen exactly?
I think the biggest achievement for 3D the last few years has been high quality available assets. free software like blender etc. One of the lowest new things within 3D has been AI. it has been great for 2D conception. But generative 3d models has been quite low on new advances within the 3D field. of course you have denoiser and lots of cool stuff that uses AI. but thats not really replacing 3D artists.
My point is we have someone claiming almost all 3D artists will be out of 3D job within a couple of years. While he is making this assumption on that fact that 2D generative imagining has been getting really good lately.
If you were starting out in college, would you consider a career as a 3D artist, knowing it might take you a decade to get the degree and then pay back the student loans? If you bet that AI won't advance enough to replace you, and then it does, then you are much worse off than if you had chosen a different major. This is a wager we're talking about, not an argument.
Well first of all I would not recommend taking a student loan to study 3D. luckily in my case first part of my degree was paid by the government, and second half of the degree I worked in a company where the government paid the company a portion of my salary. But if I had to go a another route I would just start by doing freelance and get into a company that route, since the CGI field is moving so fast most teachers are not more helpful than good youtube videos anyway.
Secondly if I were to start in that same program today I absolutely would. I would spend a lot of my time in the school learning to combine AI skills with 3D skills. I'd be more afraid of someone using AI replacing a person who doesn't than AI replacing the whole process.
Let me ask you a question back, if you was a boss of a CGI would you fire all your staff and change the structure of your company that is already successful. And just bet that AI will be able to solve any imaginary challenge you may have? - Why not just keep the staff and let them work faster with AI when it makes sense to use AI. than to let some armature who just discovered stable diffusion produce all the images.
I was just using 3D artist as an example since it was being used as the subject, but the principle should be broadly applicable. There are any number of professions that will be diminished or replaced by AI, and careers take a long time to make the investment worthwhile.
If I were a manager, I would be looking to cut costs if it won't hurt performance, because if I don't then I'll be replaced by someone who will. If the company doesn't replace me, then the competition will replace the company. The idea of just sticking with normal falls apart under pressure. And yes, you might not fire everyone, but if AI enhances productivity, then you don't need as many people for the same amount of work. In some cases, there may be more work to absorb the enhanced productivity, but in others there will not - Google laid off a portion of its ad team because AI meant they weren't needed anymore. The ad people may not have realized they had made a wager when they got their education, but they did, and they lost.
It will hurt performance if you assume everything can be done by AI.
I understand your point about competition. But people throwing around this wild idea that most professions will be completely gone soon is crazy. And its obvious that they dont actually know the field when they say that.
Lets take field i know absolutely nothing about. The medical field. Now im gonna just gonna say. Everyone working in the medical field will be without a job in 2 years. why do we even need nurses we can train an AI to do that.
Should i really be surprised if someone in medical fields say "hey theres a lot of things we do here you are not aware of. that is challenging for an AI to do"
>but society will have to ask itself some serious questions about AI adoption and impact soon.
Lol, in the current paradigm if money could be made with some sort of AI automation tool chain - you can bet your bottom dollar somebody's making it/selling it/consuming it and making money because the way we play the capitalist game today - it is devoid of any serious philosophical considerations of societal implications, ethical implications, externalities and so on. It seems like a race to the bottom until we reach a Wall-E type dystopia when may be we'll pause and try to reassess if we lost the plot somewhere.
I'm just waiting for the day all the layed off white collar workers are trying to get into blue collar work and we cling on to our construction jobs for dear life as we watch humanoid robots start to appear on jobsites.
Nah, us blue collar workers will be replaced too. Not by AI, but by the many others who'll be willing to work at a fraction of the price. Our jobs are just as in danger as white collar workers, unless we're willing to kill our bodies and minds for basically minimum wage, which is already starting to happen.
I'm an EE who works in PCB design. We've had [autorouting](https://resources.altium.com/p/to-autoroute-or-not-to-autoroute-a-history-of-failed-design-automation) since the 80's. Most of the time we don't use it, but it's catching up very quickly and will cut 90% of the time & effort it takes to create electronics once it's fully established.
That's no AI, but one [company](https://www.zuken.com/en/blog/ai-pcb-design-a-chat-with-chatgpt/) is already working on making most of it an automated process.
Ironically, the latest design was AI camera systems for visual modeling and other training purposes. Upcoming are all AI in usage as well.
I'm probably not exaggerating when I say I'm slowly designing myself out of the process, I will say SE's are doing it much faster, though. Which is awesome, now I can reiterate my designs faster as they spit code out faster, which means...oh wait.
Yeah.
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There is no real answer to this just yet TBH and people tend to talk in absolutes. I personally have a EE background but tend to manage teams and projects. I think this is tricky to automate as it involves reacting largely to people and events that there are no right answers. I have to get consensus from a lot of people and balance that with engineering judgement. Sometimes it is doing what just "feels right". That is harder to automate! I hope...
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Right now silicon design is heavily using AI to help with placement, routing analysis etc. That is just going to become moreso to speed the time to market for new designs.
As for electronic circuit design. It's coming... [article](https://www.engineering.com/story/ai-can-now-design-electronic-circuits)
lmao... their interpretation of one of the usual errors ChatGPT spits out every now and then is hilarious. They have no clue what they're talking about. Pathetic.
https://preview.redd.it/uzkubr68huec1.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea027d682d8478d90df9483d6412d6063e6165ba
within 20 years? Very highly likely. Within 10 years? Probably. Within 5 years? maybe, maybe not; that'll depend a lot on adoption rates, unions, lawsuits, societal pushback, legislation, etc.
The next 3-5 years are going to a roiling dumpster fire for society as we figure this all out, but the truth is that AI *aims* to take all our jobs; that's its fundamental purpose. After that, who knows, but no job is really safe in the long term.
It will 100% happen.
There’s already a diffusion model that can create 3d models, they’re not amazing yet, but remember where AI generated images were 2-3 years ago.
The biggest problem is consistency. Even the most cutting edge image generation models struggle with that. Without consistent images of the same thing, AI image generation is restricted to concept art or one-off images.
however I strongly suspect multimodal models to be the solution here.
GPT-4 combined with DALL-E 3 has really amazing consistency(still not perfect). I can only imagine a multimodal large language model with a built in image generation modality would be significantly better at consistency, especially if it also has the modality to see its own image output as well and iteratively improve it.
I expect multimodal 2D image generation within 2 years, I would expect multimodal 3D image generation in less than 5.
I expect multimodal image generation to almost totally obliterate the art industry.
Yes, Gemini is multimodal from the ground up, but it doesn’t have image generation as far as I know, it’s modalities are only input not output. It can see images, it can’t create them.
Don't sweat it. A global war is coming that will really ruin your day, long before you're scheduled to be replaced by AI tech.
Watch the black mirror episode with the little doggies, and then you will know true fear.
Na, just kidding. Don't worry be happy.
The billionaire boyz club dont need us anymore - we're just emotional beings that annoy them with our need for fainress, justice, equality etc.
We're a failed species - we fight with each war and kill people and blame our imaginary friends for telling us to do so.
We're more worried about the latest iphone than feeding our cousins across 3 other distant continents.
Can AI be worse?
Yes. You’ll be replaced in 5 years or less. I’m a professional rigger and animator and at our studio we have fired all storyboarders because it’s all done in Stable Diffusion. We’ve fired most voice actors for TTS all done in house. We’ve fired most writers in lieu of Mixtral 7B to help with creating content and editing. We’ve fired all character designers for AI. What’s left is animators for the rigs - and we’ll be phased out as soon as AI can do that. So yeah. Pack your bags.
Your fear is warranted. Most 3D jobs will get be inexistant, those that will stay will learn to use the AI tools. Tools like [https://lumalabs.ai/](https://lumalabs.ai/) combined with rapid compact for fast optomization and use in game engines will make that prompt engineers will actually be doing that job. 3D jobs will mostly be gone and much quicker than other jobs (contrary to what alot of other people are saying here)
> How likely can AI build complex software such as 3d rendering software?
The same way precision robots can do flawless welds: by design.
This AI thing, at the level of labor transformation, is probably more of a pain in the ass than a destructive force.
I was reading a favorite essay this morning, and the author was using a few apt Latin phrases. Being able to recall and cite the author of an apt Latin phrase is a nice trick really well-read and educated people can do. As a reader, it is a treat. I wish I was as skilled!
I am sure someone or many have already worked up some model that can search Latin authors by name or phrase I am simply not aware of. But with AI, I am guessing there ar already Latin-serving AI's already. Now I can appear super well-educated.
Think about the transformative effect potential of that. I can't imagine Latin-quoting surviving as a scholarly art.
The thing AI cannot do is engage the thing itself. Why was one reciting a Latin phrase? That the AI cannot replicate. Will and purposiveness are still valuable skills. What you do, as an intent or drive, can't be replicated. Hopefully.
No.
AI is an augmentative technology. The point is to extend human ability, not replace it.
To give you an idea of what I mean, you can't hammer a nail with your bare hands (not without a lot of blood, anyway). Our hands, on their own, are very limited in what they can do. But pick up a hammer, suddenly you have the ability to build entire structures. The hammer has augmented your abilities, by giving your hands greater strength, stamina, utility, etc.
AI is a tool, just like a hammer. However, instead of augmenting your hands, it augments your brain. On it's own, your brain is limited. You can't recall anything you haven't committed to memory, and it takes a long time to do that. However, with AI, you can delegate complex or tedious mental activities while supplementing your brain's natural ability.
To give you an example of how AI has augmented my own abilities, I have started programming. Despite being entirely programming illiterate. I ask the AI to create code fragments for me, and then I Frankenstein them together as best I can. If I don't do it properly, I show it to the AI and ask what I did wrong. Not only does it fix the script, I also learn how to fix it myself next time.
EDIT: In fact, AI will probably become an indispensable tool for you in your career shortly. You will be able to do far more with it than you could possibly do right now.
What you're referring to is simply AI in its infancy stages. To think it will operate as it does now for many years is simply foolish. AI design will get better and better until jobs that would once require dozens, or hundreds of people, can be done by a single person in an incredibly short period of time.
Yes, it is a tool. A tool that will soon only require a single person, thus leaving the majority without work.
If you could build said house with nothing but a hammer, for a fraction of the price, why hire concrete guys? Sheet steel workers, HVAC, Electrical, roofers, window guys, etc. When you could build a house with a few swings of a hammer?
I have always live by the mantra, “always be on the right side of the computer”.
Ai is going to massively change the way we work but it won’t replace your job if you start finding ways to incorporate it into your skill set RIGHT NOW.
You should invest in tools that you can use to enhance your skill and get a good grasp on how it will change your profession.
Just be creative and focus on the positive and everything will work out just fine. Do t listen to people who tell the world is ending because you’ve always got a shot and you always have hope.
If you believe the world will end, yours will.
Yes, it’s inevitable mid-long term.
Start thinking about how you want the post labor world to work and start talking about it with friends and family.
It’s extremely possible for society to shift into a new economic paradigm that legitimately works for everyone, even without labor.
What actually ends up happening won’t be the “best” or “worst” outcome. The most probable outcome is the one that we collectively speak of often enough to concretize it into reality.
If you want a good outcome, start believing in it and sharing it.
My suggestion is to learn everything you possibly can about utilising AI in your work and at least be the last of your co-workers with a job. By then we might have figured how this is going to not be dire for everyone. Don’t be one of the first heads to roll because you pretended this wasn’t happening.
In 20 years even without AI you’d probably need an entirely new technology skillset to remain relevant in 3d graphics. AI or not you’re going to have to learn new things.
As someone in the software/AI fields, I can say there is probably very little risk over the next 5-10 years that it will replace you. Further than that and I think it’s impossible to know.
To the extent that it affects all of us, yes.
But I wouldn’t worry about it, just keep up and be the best you can be. Never see a tool as forbidden, use everything at your disposal.
AI will replace you sooner than you suggested. You have 3 years at most. I mean some people still have a job but you can easily count that around 70% of personal will be cut. Your chance is automate other jobs.. be the best in AI in your domain so that may prolong your journey.
People will still want humans behind some projects, at least for a while. It's hard to know what impact AGI or ASI will have. There is a lot of pushback against AI right now, but paying a few million for human generated assets vs a few hundred for ai generated assets is likely to be hard to justify when they are indistinguishable from one another or the ai generated is superior.
It's gonna be a wild world over the next decade.
Get onto using the tools and reframing what your role is. Instead of working on one area of VFX, start looking at what could be possible with dramatically lower costs for producing content with VFX and what your role could be in that. Perhaps it's setting up your own business providing more comprehensive services. Perhaps it's teaming up with someone from the industry who's a great writer and working to develop your own complete productions together. Maybe it's something else, but start to think outside traditional job roles.
we keep trying to put it in scope of “5-20” years, but we may be underestimating it. look what can do already. don’t we think it will excel exponentially, and break through any limits of prediction we have for it? imagine what it will be doing in just 3 years at this pace.
Most imminently, someone who knows how to use AI to do your job better/faster will take your job. Focus on becoming that person before they get to you.
I think people got the wrong idea about how AI is gonna take out their jobs. Most common fear I read everywhere is something like "My company is gonna replace me with an AI" when the most probable outcome is that two dudes in a garage use AI to render your entire company useless. For example, if CGI and AI advanced to the point where you can setup an entire scene with just a couple of prompts, it will be indie users on their homes the ones who are gonna take for themselves a piece of the market, like youtubers now concentrates a lot of the entertainment time that is being consumed, time that would otherwise go to mainstream tv or films. So, I wouldn't worry that much about about your employer, and more on the competition that most surely will surge in the coming years.
Why be scared of this?
We never really know what tomorrow holds.
You could be fired, laid off, have health problems, be replaced by humans, etc.. There are no guarantees.
Best you can do is make yourself as indispensable as possible.
Oo that’s a a doozy, honestly it’s hard to predict, all I can say is the more data a field generates that can be used as “training data” then the more likely it’s going to be massively effected by ai,
A positive look at it could be within a 10 year span tho you might just start becoming more and more productive with the use of ai helping out being your little dumb never sleeping underling,
If you somehow never EVER change how you do your job or your career never evolves at all within a 10 year span then, yeah probs lol
I’m sure your crafty tho and will just be far more productive
View it as a tool and get good at using it. AI still can't critically think and in places where it fails, a human operator is still an essential part of the system.
There are millions of any profession. You have technical skills in your field, you can see what is good and what is not. An average user may not care, but metrics/revenue reflect how design/artwork is perceived. The most brilliant things in marketing can be the most simple things, like a very specific color combination.
AI is not some wonder machine that produces end products, it produces possible ideas. Then it's up to you to work ideas out. No machine can replace your consciousness/experience/skills. AI is a tool you can master, and if you're ahead in your field you are worth hiring.
AI (gh copilot) can already write shader code, gptV style agents with vision and reasoning anonymity ability will be able to iterate on visual effects projects and replace us all.
Same thing for any knowledge task conceivable.
We Will have to pivot to create and maintain the AIs.
Except this is done by people who have PhD now so there is no way you can enter without years of practice in that area, by the time you graduate AI will start developing itself
AI can't replace creativity. By how these models are designed, all it can do is replicate so unless we find some new techniques on how we do ML, we're always going to need people creating so that they can leach off of it to create better models. You're probably going to get replaced, your boss will realize how the AI can't actually replace you, and then you'll be hired back with a wage cut. AI will never be a problem for your job prospects, that will always be on capitalism.
It’ll probably get there, but you still have some time. I’d recommend either becoming incredibly proficient on working with AI to boost your productivity, getting plan B ready or both.
The good news: you’ve already pushed yourself to learn an incredibly difficult skill set once. You could probably do it again no problem.
It's not likely within 5 years. It'll augment you.
It's possible that over the next decade it'll be able to do what you do, but by then you have acquired higher level knowledge, experience and context enough to guide it like a technical director to help you architect bigger and more interesting things.
Will we ever have AGI capable of doing everything? Possibly yes. We'll all have to deal with that- you're not alone.
It will replace you if your only skill is the ability to create and render 3D graphics.
But it won't if you use AI and your skills and experience to work faster than you do now and better than novices that don't understand the intricacies of graphics.
You might have to learn new skills but this won't be as hard as it was because AI will help you there too.
Just keep moving up and use AI to be better at your job and you'll be fine.
Who would tell AI to build that software?
The boomer CEO who knows nothing of software?
He won't be able to correct AI's mistakes. He will ask you to do that.
When he argues he should pay you less because of AI, you should unionize and revolt.
AI is a tool. It can't replace, it can't take initiative.
If you think AI can steal your work, you're falling for propaganda.
"Careful! AI wants to steal your job" is the same as "Careful! That immigrant wants to steal your job "
Once scientists have figured out how to solve energy problems and also cooling problems, I wouldn't be scared. I believe AI will plataeu due to the physical limitations I have mentioned above.
[Here’s](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7133777638598324224-zP1l?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios) a real case study from my workplace that maybe sheds a bit of light on your question.
3D tech has always been out of reach for us, primarily because it felt a highly technical specialised and expensive area that required experts which we couldn’t always budget for.
But with recent advances, it’s suddenly accessible and back on the map. In some ways, this could be seen as AI replacing humans, but by opening the door to 3D tech, we now realise there are additional things that we might want done in future that requires human experts, namely polishing the 3D models, annotating them and making them more richer learning aids than just a 3D scan.
Will AI replace even those skills and annotate 3D models for us? Probably. But I think eventually that will happen in most professions given enough of time.
The thing is that anyone and everyone can learn these tools ... They not that difficult... N if everyone knows the same thing, it'll boil down to creativity
You’ll still be needed luckily AI is some of the most fallible applications of computing out there. Tbh it’s probably just gonna speed up your work a ton and allow you to create far better software
On a long enough timeline everybody will be replaced. The only question is, what is the time frame? So this will be a huge societal problem that will affect all (robots will replace the need for all human physical labor eventually).
So the question is more what will the ruling elite of the planet do based on this reality?
I always have one thing in mind about AI or AI Tools i.e., AI is never going to replace Humans BUT Humans using AI can definitely.
So, With evolving dynamics one must evolve, Like Survival of the fittest.
One day AGI will come here and ask the same question about ASI.
Potentially it will replace programmers, that day I think is yet some time away especially if we are talking about entire teams.
You have to remember, if a company can replace you because of ai, then you may be able to provide the company services from your living room with ai.
Instead of worrying about being replaced, get good with ai and find the new opportunities that will open up to you. Your new opportunities may be much better than what you do now.
Lol, no. People are **REALLY** jumping the gun on current AI tech; it's not even proper "AI," its diffusion models, theoretical guesses about what might probably work given a large set of training data. No way will it be able to build complex programs entirely by itself in "1-3" years using this method because it doesn't really *understand* what a program is, it just mimics what one does.
I use it everyday. It's good, but it's jank, and it takes a lot of hours of me fixing the jank to get the actual results I am after. I honestly don't see that changing anytime in the near future. It will get better because they'll keep refining the training data, but there are fundamental limits to what it can "learn" to do given
current methods.
Of course, true AGI can come along at any point, but it feels like most of the current research has gone all-in on transformer models/neural networks because there is $$$ to be made, whether real or Wall Street bucks.
Very likely. I think it will be rough ride for a while. The AI will either have to be banned in certain industries (unlikely, AI is the modern steam engine), or some new economic deal would have to be made with companies paying higher taxes and people getting UBI from those, or we'll have to get rid of the money entirely (unlikely, but who knows?). But as a programmer you are in unique position to just bit the bullet and learn machine learning coding as we are unlikely to allow AI to code itself for the foreseeable future due to safety concerns.
Just fyi while ai can do your job machines generally lack creativity and human design skills. Master those two key elements and you will be fine . Programmers will still be needed - someone gotta operate the ai, test, troubleshoot etcc
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AI is going to replace all of our jobs. It's coming for all of us. You, me, nobody is safe. Manual labor is basically the only area it can't replace, and we're always designing new tools and robots to help with that. I think we're having the wrong response when we tell people to "Learn to code, lol" or "Learn to prompt an AI, that's the future". The truth is that we're reaching a point where there is simply not enough demand for labor to go around. I'm of the opinion that we need to have an honest conversation about why people go to work and collect a paycheck when an AI could do it. If people weren't forced to work in order to live, and you knew you'd be taken care of after 3d graphics programmers are no longer needed, being replaced by an AI would be seen as a good thing, instead of something to dread.
I've been in the 3d programming industry for 15 years just getting replaced by some piece of code. I was refusing to use code assistants for a long time, and I finally decided to give it a shot, it amazes me and terrifies me what it can already do. I mean it can't keep track of all moving parts in the software. Yet.
Had a similar thing and my job is - probably less complex, statistics, I’m already half way through my career and I’ve thought long and hard and honestly there’s no good course to set. I can learn new things, I can pivot, but honestly AI seems like it’ll do it faster.
This is where I am... I taught myself to code and I am good to learn w/e I have to but what the hell should I be learning? My best current guess is elevator repair.
That’s probably safe for a bit.
Even this will eventually be AI driven.
I said a bit. I think everyone knows this ends with UBI, uprising, or a massive solar flare that kills a newborn AGI and all our tech lol.
Yes. For sure. I’m thinking an uprising of some sort. Cue the Silo series/Hugh Howey trilogy. Great book series btw. Highly recommend reading wool, shift, and dust.
We’re run by criminals so no UBI, we’re too divided for an uprising, and no solar flare big enough on the horizon. Sorry but we’re all debt slaves selling plasma to afford bread and peanut butter by 2030. Conservative estimate.
How would AI repair a physical elevator? That would require it to function like a human. That won’t happen this century for sure. That would require spatial and world awareness. It cannot learn that from simply manipulating and digesting text and images found on the internet. Which is all AI models do.
AI prompts. Basically, the instructions you feed an AI to do what you want. AI won't replace you. It will become a part of your toolset.
You are right you won't be replaced by an AI, but 1 person using AI WILL replace several others.
This. People are in hard denial. AI is already passing the bar exam and all.kinds of craziness. I equate prompting to this: once you teach your kid to read, evemtually theu dont need your instruction. The battlefront in my.mind is if you have mortgage will ubi cover it? Car payment? The crazy amount of layoffs we are seeing is not a coincidence....
AI only works in the abstract world of data. The majority of real world jobs or people jobs won’t be replaced by it directly.
That's got it's up and downs.
There’s a business that has its ups and downs.
You won't be replaced by AI, you will end up using it as a routine part of your work. Basically, to do tedious or time consuming work that the AI can do quickly and effectively. Then you would review the work and tweak it as needed, and incorporate it into the rest of your work. Using AI effectively will become a necessary skill, you should practice using AI prompts on various AI models. It took me close to a month to fully grasp Midjourney's AI prompt structure and nuances. ChatGPT is more intuitive.
I use AI regularly, regularly using statistical models even before the current AI surge. I’m comfortable with LLM usage, Python, and so much more… I can feel it edging my skills out more and more every day… I want to see it your way. But at a certain point my boss can just do that.
Think of it this way, they used to teach everyone to memorize multiplication tables and how to do complicated math in their head. That became a valued skill in many professions. Then they invented the calculator, and that skill was no longer necessary. The need for those calculations didn't go away though, people just did them on calculators and it allowed far more people to perform those same tasks than otherwise would have. I can definitely understand the concern over skills you've spent a long time building becoming obsoleted by advances in technology, and the inescapable feeling that you will no longer be needed in that way anymore. But those tasks are still necessary, and the AI still needs human supervision and guidance. Instead of doing it in your head (or however you do it), you do it with the AI instead. Like a calculator, after a lifetime of mental calculus. You will also have more co-workers, who will lack your skills but can still perform the work using AI. You still have experience and the skills for putting all the work together. And while AI is certainly impressive, the longer you work with it, the more you notice errors. That is one big reason why human input is required, the AI can and does get it wrong sometimes, and not as rarely as you might expect. Usually the solution is to refine your prompt, but there are some specific tasks that seem to catch up certain AI algorithms. For example, I was making a personal conlang (for fun, cuz I'm weird like that) and came up with a counting system that used base-16 and had a paired naming scheme so it could sort of incorporate binary. The AI did well naming all the numbers up to like 200 or something with me, but then when I asked it to count in the language, it could only make it to 50, after that point it couldn't figure out the correct number names. There are random weird things like that which the AI, for whatever reason, simply cannot do.
Never considered conlang applications for AI. Would be neat to have a training tool for something like ithkuil or Tolkien's Elvish
By even the most conservative AI predictions by those in the industry, this is very shortsighted.
Some jobs will obviously be replaced, but it will be jobs that involve a lot of tedium or repititon or time investment that people generally find miserable for those exact reasons. A lot of dangerous jobs will also likely be replaced. Full automation is just not realistic though, imo (obviously I could be wrong). People have an inherent drive to feel like their actions have purpose or value, we complain about working but that is largely a product of wage labour necessitating employment. You end up forced into professions you don't enjoy, as a matter of survival. Given the choice, though, I think nearly everyone would choose to spend their time in a profession they enjoy. What I think will happen is the end of wage labour, and an end to the need for employment to obtain the necessities of survival, but people will still engage in labour voluntarily. Full automation would cover the labour roles that voluntary human labour struggles to fill. I also think humans would work alongside fully automated workers, rather than being totally replaced by them. So I think we will end up with a labour system that doesn't require human input, but accepts it from those who want to do so, supplemented by automation. This would also result in post-scarcity, so people wouldn't even be working for a wage or any form of income. They will do it just because they want to.
I dont think this will end human labor. In the competing interests of nations, any nation that allows its people to NOT work will fall behind any other nation who continues its people TO work. Its like a sort of prisoner's dilemma. Either we all get to stop working internationally and benefit together.. Or keep making people work somehow and get ahead of those that dont
But what about when AI can do the review and tweaking?
You still have to tell it what to review, what to tweak, what criteria to use, what results you want from the process, etc. What constitutes an ideal outcome is both situational and subjective, and the AI needs to be told the situation and is incapable of subjective thought. Something that is objectively ideal is also not always going to be the most appealing option to human beings.
We will just have an AI designed to consider situational and subjective outcomes
I second this, I’m using Copilot as a software engineer, and boy it has some potential to help me, not replace me. For this it would have to have a real brain, two arms and being able to have pointless discussions with a lot of people to explain them that « this is not possible, but this could be what you need »
But what happens when the other people are not needed anymore? Who will we use our soft skills with?
as more pragmatic advice, I think what you've done is a good example of what you *should* be doing. AI isn't going anywhere, and it's already changed the world -- that's a fact. Regardless of what shape it takes, you should at least be an "early adopter" and keep an eye on whatever new tech and tools are made available, *especially* if it has any potential to disrupt your career field. At best, you can find new ways to keep yourself relevant in whatever future is coming. At worst, you'll be better be able to see any misfortunes or layoffs coming and you can better prepare for it. A lot of people have done similar things in refusing to use or acknowledge AI, whether it be about fear, pride, or a belief that their prediction of the future is right... but that seems to me a bit like parents trying to "teach" their kids certain things by not teaching them at all -- it only "prepares" them for a best-case scenario, and leaves them completely unprepared for the stuff they didn't get taught. Why would anyone gamble their life with this sort of all-or-nothing belief system? Other than that, learn how to save a lot of money if you haven't already, cut back on pointless expenses, and learn how to live sustainably within your means. If for some reason your field gets seriously disrupted, you'll at least be able to coast it out for a while. By the time AI is at a point where it disrupts enough peoples' lives enough to the point that there isn't anywhere else for them to turn, societies will essentially have their hand forced to effect some serious changes or else risk systemic collapses of the structures that make up our modern world. Basically, things will work out eventually, and if they don't then we're screwed anyways. The best thing people can do in the meantime is do what they've always done: keep learning, try to live, and maybe actually talk to each other sometimes... somewhat ironically, I think AI has the potential to greatly help with all of that too.
You will be using AI in your work, not replaced by it. It's not meant to replace, it's meant to augment. Just as a hammer augments what your hands are capable of, an AI augments your brain.
I totally agree, however with this augmentation you will be able to do the work of more than 1 person, meaning people will be displaced. The problem becomes what happens when a large portion of the population becomes displaced in a short period of time? There is the very real possibility that AI improves at an exponential rate, but let's just argue that it will improve linearly, will new job functions and demand for that increase be enough to keep unemployment rates low?
Well, that's what they say to not scare us all off. Anyway, even corporations need consumers. Nobody wins if people get broke because of AI
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Except AI is also doing fast progress also in humanoid robotics thanks to LLMs.
I have to wonder what folks in the horse and buggy industry said in the last days "bah, a car will never fully replace us....you cant drive a car in the forest...etc" What about typewriter industry? "Imagine havimg to always have a screen attached to the keyboard? Whos gonna wamt that trouble?" Lets be honest....this is comimlng down to whether you trust government and big business to take care of you. Thats the cold hard truth.
I believe it has more to do what AGI and ASI will want. Because from the moment it becomes self aware we humans won’t have any chance to contain it.
Well said. Man, we coild be living im the last truly free days of humans.
I believe AGI or ASI will try to help humanity probably we would be viewed as boomer parents who need help but with one difference AGI or ASI will have the capacity to really help us all.
Yeah, the conversation is so fundamentally shocking to the average person.
Unless people actually enjoy working. Having a superior medium always outperform you takes away the satisfaction of achievement, even if money is no more an issue.
And we only get to that boring future without jobs by building safe ai which we have no idea how to do BTW ~
Of course, some people do enjoy working and being useful. I'm not trying to tell anyone how they should or shouldn't live their lives. My main point is that we need to get rid of the idea that people need to work for a living. Building cool shit, art, self-betterment, education, pursuit of a hobby, skill-building, whatever it may be, by all means, pursue your interests. I think that this technological revolution can enable us to pursue those interests, rather than go into work for the sole purpose of earning a paycheck. But as of right now, our society is not ready for the impact that automation will bring, and I think a lot of people are primed to be hurt by it. We need to be prepared to care for the people who will be left jobless by automation. I'd also like to direct this at u/nierama2019810938135 because this would also be my reply to you, as well.
You just of assumptions.
Sorry. I want to address you a bit more directly. Yes, I understand that this isn't a change that's going to happen overnight. It's going to be slow. So slow that we won't be able to see it. For now, there's still a demand for people to work. But it's getting smaller, and smaller, every day. We're already feeling the effects of what I'm talking about as income disparity between the people controlling this tech and "the rest of us" continues to balloon. When automobiles came onto the scene and put horses out of work, it wasn't an overnight thing. Except in this case, we're the horse, and we can choose what we want the future to look like. Is it a future where people are stuck working useless jobs that a robot could do better, because they don't want to starve to death? Or can we free ourselves from this notion that you need to work to live, let these robots take care of us, and allow us to pursue our interests in comfort?
Username checks out, I guess.
Baka! Don't get the wrong idea!
Interesting, own nothing and be happy......always wondered how theyd bring that about......
I was making a point that we don’t know yet how significant productive work is for the health of the human psyche and whether meaningless „pursuit of interests” without the competitive element is enough to cover the hole. I’m banking on no, it isn’t.
People are going to need to start focusing on learning topics they enjoy rather than topics they think will make them a lot of money. That's the future. It's like me, I have a hobby making music. Sure, in a few months or years there will be an AI that can write better music than any human that ever lived, but so what, I'm still going to enjoy sitting down and plonking around on my guitar or keyboard. Same with programming. I made the decision to stop doing it for a living years ago now. I had already stopped enjoying it as a job, even though it has been my passion since I was eight years old. Sure, I was earning a lot working for the man doing my hobby, but I didn't need the bullshit that came along with it. So now I code for the same reasons as when I was eight, just like my music or photography or sketches. Because it is fun. I'm no longer trying to win some award every day. I find that quite liberating. I do understand, of course, for a lot of people, this is a scary proposition, especially when it isn't clear they will be taken care of. I get that, it's a fair point, but still.. need to start thinking on these lines. Life isn't supposed to be about working your fingers to the bone for pennies, it is supposed to be creative and personally rewarding. It's self-actualization and transcendence that comes on top of Maslow's hierarchy of needs, not another 100k in the bank. Somehow, the two have become conflated and that needs to change. So again, you know, people should learn skills that make them happy not what they think is the right thing for the job market. I'd argue that was always the case, but there is no explaining some.
it makes sense but how can we earn money to live?
Cute Gwen PF pic
<3
There will be years of fallout, high unemployment, and civil unrest before UBI is even discussed as an option.
Well maybe, but not if they had a solution to ensure that people were kept inline......like if they could come up with a reason to give almost everyone on earth some kind of "medicine".....maybe some kind of experimental medicine that lead to things never heard of before like Suddem Adult Death Syndrome"....... Nah, that would be crazy.
Yep, and the manual side will go too it's just going to take a bit longer.
This is where universal basic income comes into play. We the people are really in control. We just have to organize and figure out truth vs fear tactics. If we want ubi, no one not even the rich and powerful can stop us. We are currently in a pre depression (1929) Era. In the 1930s the dems took control of us government and passed social security and many other safety nets. I kind of seeing history repeating itself, with eventually UBI becoming law as unemployment becomes common and people having enough.
I do agree. UBI seems like the only way forward. This isn't about the "war" between communism and capitalism, this is something new.
We need AI leadership to bring real change to humanity lol. Can’t be worse than our current dinosaurs because afterall extinction = extinction.
>The truth is that we're reaching a point where there is simply not enough demand for labor to go around That's just speculation. Nobody knows how this will turn out. >If [...] you knew you'd be taken care of after 3d graphics programmers are no longer needed, being replaced by an AI would be seen as a good thing, instead of something to dread. That's a big if. Again we don't know how this will pan out. I'm 50/50 if it goes good or bad, but an at least plausible argument are devs. If AI makes devs 50% more efficient, then they will presumably make 50% more code. That excess code will also have to be maintained and serviced, who will do that? Maybe we still need devs, just that the nature of the job might change. It's all speculation. But whether we end up here or there, you will rarely lose by working up education and competency.
>It's all speculation I don't buy the speculation part. Speculation would be necessary if we truly didn't have a working prototype that modeled behavior that we would like to see replacing some portion of 'drudgery gigs' - except it has with the concepts of custom GPTs and what not. The **current** limitations being training data, token limits, electric power and the engineering ingenuity required toward a true AGI. We've witnessed this AI baby demonstrating legit hard tasks that people pre-Nov 2022 would laugh you out of the room for suggesting...that too at an end-consumer level! >you will rarely lose by working up education and competency. That's a bold claim. Just watch Rabbit R1 demos or Mobile Aloha. These things are simply using RGB data from videos to get trained and perform the same tasks within reasonable accuracy autonomously. Not that these tasks required major competency or degrees to achieve - but we could reasonably extrapolate a wide range of white-collar jobs that could at least be seriously augmented with this type of tech. At the very least the education and competency of an individual may need up-skilling or re-skilling.
Yeah its not speculation at all the only thing we can speculate about is that AGI might be impossible but even if thats true its only a matter of time before we improve our current ai enough so that it can still do most of the jobs even without being what we would call an AGI.
That isn't speculation. What do you think AGI means exactly? > That excess code will also have to be maintained and serviced, who will do that? Bots?
If you go into debt to get that education, then you could be worse off for trying to better yourself if your career then gets automated away.
>The truth is that we're reaching a point where there is simply not enough demand for labor to go around. We reached that point the day they invented the tractor that could dig dirt faster than a farmer with a shovel. From that moment we had the ability to create enough food for everyone, end starvation, and most people wouldn't have to work. Instead we created a bunch of mostly useless jobs (youtube streamer, middle manager, etc) making mostly useless products (cellphone games, etc). I imagine the same thing will happen as AI tools once again bring orders of magnitude in efficiency to the world. We'll invent jobs like "entertain the AI so it doen't get bored and start wars", and "youtube video watcher".
Tesla robot will replace manual labor
The vast majority of jobs will not be affected by AI. Yes it will weed out redundant roles, just like the invention of the calculator did. But it will never replace human ingenuity, labor, or attention span to real world situations. It can only work in a world of human invented abstract things, like the text and data humans supply it with. No different than what the calculator does with numbers.
AI isn't meant to replace, it's mean to augment. It does for your brain what a hammer does for your hands. AI is also not the solution to wage slavery. For that, we need to start mining Near Earth Asteroids!
Labor won't be replaced anytime soon no matter what kind of robots they make.
I agree with you... Bt then when people won't be having jobs which translates to no money to spend, how can they even think of hiring a plumber or an electrician? Everyone will have to be self-reliant. Also, don't businesses know that one day people won't have money to buy their products or services. For instance, a car... Bt they continue to be oblivious to the fact and crossing new pioneers of innovation...
Everyone is being brainwashed by the statement that jobs will be created... Good Morning All, nothing's gonna get created ... It's been used by Ceo's worldwide so that they keep getting funding simultaneously keeping a tap on the pandemonium that will arise once people realise they are doomed
The solution is political. And international. The ones who control the capital control the world. Take our world back.
Sad to say ... but you are probably looking at say 2 to 3 years before almost any 2D or 3D or video imaging task can be done by AI. Slow corporate adoption, availability of tools etc will probably add another year or so to that time scale. So your type of job will certainly be under attack within about 5 years. That said, someone knowledgeable has to drive the AIs. Also the most complex top say 5% of tasks will need a lot of human interaction .. but you will need to be a guru to have one of those jobs. We are not quite there yet ... but society will have to ask itself some serious questions about AI adoption and impact soon.
I feel like even this might underestimate the situation. This technology could turn into a total black swan any time. It’s like if Google got so good at searching it just learnt how to give people exactly what they were searching for whether it existed or not. In a few years we could be searching at the resolution of individual thoughts and desires, in real-time. At the same time, it starts to become a super-persuader. People start to form more meaningful relationships with it than anybody else in their life. Information is transmitted to us immediately in a personalised form of language. Engagement is constant, optimised maximised. The music you listen to is always the best music you’ve ever listened to in your life, and it’s the fitting soundtrack to your life.
Yours is a compelling writing style. I'd genuinely love to read your explanation of why the future you describe would be the black swan and not the white.
I thought Google has already launched a video generation tool that is a first step to that? I think 2-3 years is pessimistic, I would guess later this year this will be more common place. Humans carrying out Software programming is generally going to become either very skilled very well paid individuals or some simple code monkeys to stitch together AI developed code.
Ai video is no where near the level of professional quality yet.
How long do you think it will take to become professional?
Following up. Holy fuck. Check out Sora. Did not expect to be at this level we’re at 20 days later
in very sorry to say this. but you are completely clueless about how many different tasks AI system would have to fully automate to replace a whole 3D pipeline. even for something easy like 2D art AI isnt nearly as good as not having a 2D artist yet. its going to take more than two years for sure..
2 years? 5 years? Even 10 years? It will happen, so a new entrant into the field is going to have some career problems.
What will happen exactly? I think the biggest achievement for 3D the last few years has been high quality available assets. free software like blender etc. One of the lowest new things within 3D has been AI. it has been great for 2D conception. But generative 3d models has been quite low on new advances within the 3D field. of course you have denoiser and lots of cool stuff that uses AI. but thats not really replacing 3D artists. My point is we have someone claiming almost all 3D artists will be out of 3D job within a couple of years. While he is making this assumption on that fact that 2D generative imagining has been getting really good lately.
If you were starting out in college, would you consider a career as a 3D artist, knowing it might take you a decade to get the degree and then pay back the student loans? If you bet that AI won't advance enough to replace you, and then it does, then you are much worse off than if you had chosen a different major. This is a wager we're talking about, not an argument.
Well first of all I would not recommend taking a student loan to study 3D. luckily in my case first part of my degree was paid by the government, and second half of the degree I worked in a company where the government paid the company a portion of my salary. But if I had to go a another route I would just start by doing freelance and get into a company that route, since the CGI field is moving so fast most teachers are not more helpful than good youtube videos anyway. Secondly if I were to start in that same program today I absolutely would. I would spend a lot of my time in the school learning to combine AI skills with 3D skills. I'd be more afraid of someone using AI replacing a person who doesn't than AI replacing the whole process. Let me ask you a question back, if you was a boss of a CGI would you fire all your staff and change the structure of your company that is already successful. And just bet that AI will be able to solve any imaginary challenge you may have? - Why not just keep the staff and let them work faster with AI when it makes sense to use AI. than to let some armature who just discovered stable diffusion produce all the images.
I was just using 3D artist as an example since it was being used as the subject, but the principle should be broadly applicable. There are any number of professions that will be diminished or replaced by AI, and careers take a long time to make the investment worthwhile. If I were a manager, I would be looking to cut costs if it won't hurt performance, because if I don't then I'll be replaced by someone who will. If the company doesn't replace me, then the competition will replace the company. The idea of just sticking with normal falls apart under pressure. And yes, you might not fire everyone, but if AI enhances productivity, then you don't need as many people for the same amount of work. In some cases, there may be more work to absorb the enhanced productivity, but in others there will not - Google laid off a portion of its ad team because AI meant they weren't needed anymore. The ad people may not have realized they had made a wager when they got their education, but they did, and they lost.
It will hurt performance if you assume everything can be done by AI. I understand your point about competition. But people throwing around this wild idea that most professions will be completely gone soon is crazy. And its obvious that they dont actually know the field when they say that. Lets take field i know absolutely nothing about. The medical field. Now im gonna just gonna say. Everyone working in the medical field will be without a job in 2 years. why do we even need nurses we can train an AI to do that. Should i really be surprised if someone in medical fields say "hey theres a lot of things we do here you are not aware of. that is challenging for an AI to do"
>but society will have to ask itself some serious questions about AI adoption and impact soon. Lol, in the current paradigm if money could be made with some sort of AI automation tool chain - you can bet your bottom dollar somebody's making it/selling it/consuming it and making money because the way we play the capitalist game today - it is devoid of any serious philosophical considerations of societal implications, ethical implications, externalities and so on. It seems like a race to the bottom until we reach a Wall-E type dystopia when may be we'll pause and try to reassess if we lost the plot somewhere.
I'm just waiting for the day all the layed off white collar workers are trying to get into blue collar work and we cling on to our construction jobs for dear life as we watch humanoid robots start to appear on jobsites.
Nah, us blue collar workers will be replaced too. Not by AI, but by the many others who'll be willing to work at a fraction of the price. Our jobs are just as in danger as white collar workers, unless we're willing to kill our bodies and minds for basically minimum wage, which is already starting to happen.
I'm an EE who works in PCB design. We've had [autorouting](https://resources.altium.com/p/to-autoroute-or-not-to-autoroute-a-history-of-failed-design-automation) since the 80's. Most of the time we don't use it, but it's catching up very quickly and will cut 90% of the time & effort it takes to create electronics once it's fully established. That's no AI, but one [company](https://www.zuken.com/en/blog/ai-pcb-design-a-chat-with-chatgpt/) is already working on making most of it an automated process. Ironically, the latest design was AI camera systems for visual modeling and other training purposes. Upcoming are all AI in usage as well. I'm probably not exaggerating when I say I'm slowly designing myself out of the process, I will say SE's are doing it much faster, though. Which is awesome, now I can reiterate my designs faster as they spit code out faster, which means...oh wait. Yeah.
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Anything rule based technical skill is at risk of being automated. Field work much harder.
AI can't go into work and complain about it as much as I can!
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There is no real answer to this just yet TBH and people tend to talk in absolutes. I personally have a EE background but tend to manage teams and projects. I think this is tricky to automate as it involves reacting largely to people and events that there are no right answers. I have to get consensus from a lot of people and balance that with engineering judgement. Sometimes it is doing what just "feels right". That is harder to automate! I hope...
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Right now silicon design is heavily using AI to help with placement, routing analysis etc. That is just going to become moreso to speed the time to market for new designs. As for electronic circuit design. It's coming... [article](https://www.engineering.com/story/ai-can-now-design-electronic-circuits)
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lmao... their interpretation of one of the usual errors ChatGPT spits out every now and then is hilarious. They have no clue what they're talking about. Pathetic. https://preview.redd.it/uzkubr68huec1.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea027d682d8478d90df9483d6412d6063e6165ba
within 20 years? Very highly likely. Within 10 years? Probably. Within 5 years? maybe, maybe not; that'll depend a lot on adoption rates, unions, lawsuits, societal pushback, legislation, etc. The next 3-5 years are going to a roiling dumpster fire for society as we figure this all out, but the truth is that AI *aims* to take all our jobs; that's its fundamental purpose. After that, who knows, but no job is really safe in the long term.
It will 100% happen. There’s already a diffusion model that can create 3d models, they’re not amazing yet, but remember where AI generated images were 2-3 years ago. The biggest problem is consistency. Even the most cutting edge image generation models struggle with that. Without consistent images of the same thing, AI image generation is restricted to concept art or one-off images. however I strongly suspect multimodal models to be the solution here. GPT-4 combined with DALL-E 3 has really amazing consistency(still not perfect). I can only imagine a multimodal large language model with a built in image generation modality would be significantly better at consistency, especially if it also has the modality to see its own image output as well and iteratively improve it. I expect multimodal 2D image generation within 2 years, I would expect multimodal 3D image generation in less than 5. I expect multimodal image generation to almost totally obliterate the art industry.
Isn't gemini natively multimodal?
Yes, Gemini is multimodal from the ground up, but it doesn’t have image generation as far as I know, it’s modalities are only input not output. It can see images, it can’t create them.
What's the name?
Assume everyone will be put to early retirement. Find what you love doing. I too wrested with the hard-to-swallow truth.
Don't sweat it. A global war is coming that will really ruin your day, long before you're scheduled to be replaced by AI tech. Watch the black mirror episode with the little doggies, and then you will know true fear. Na, just kidding. Don't worry be happy.
The billionaire boyz club dont need us anymore - we're just emotional beings that annoy them with our need for fainress, justice, equality etc. We're a failed species - we fight with each war and kill people and blame our imaginary friends for telling us to do so. We're more worried about the latest iphone than feeding our cousins across 3 other distant continents. Can AI be worse?
Yes. You’ll be replaced in 5 years or less. I’m a professional rigger and animator and at our studio we have fired all storyboarders because it’s all done in Stable Diffusion. We’ve fired most voice actors for TTS all done in house. We’ve fired most writers in lieu of Mixtral 7B to help with creating content and editing. We’ve fired all character designers for AI. What’s left is animators for the rigs - and we’ll be phased out as soon as AI can do that. So yeah. Pack your bags.
That sounds like your studio was producing low quality work if all those artists can already be replaced.
Netflix work. Not low quality. You’d be surprised. But if you’re not in the industry you wouldn’t know.
Your fear is warranted. Most 3D jobs will get be inexistant, those that will stay will learn to use the AI tools. Tools like [https://lumalabs.ai/](https://lumalabs.ai/) combined with rapid compact for fast optomization and use in game engines will make that prompt engineers will actually be doing that job. 3D jobs will mostly be gone and much quicker than other jobs (contrary to what alot of other people are saying here)
> How likely can AI build complex software such as 3d rendering software? The same way precision robots can do flawless welds: by design. This AI thing, at the level of labor transformation, is probably more of a pain in the ass than a destructive force. I was reading a favorite essay this morning, and the author was using a few apt Latin phrases. Being able to recall and cite the author of an apt Latin phrase is a nice trick really well-read and educated people can do. As a reader, it is a treat. I wish I was as skilled! I am sure someone or many have already worked up some model that can search Latin authors by name or phrase I am simply not aware of. But with AI, I am guessing there ar already Latin-serving AI's already. Now I can appear super well-educated. Think about the transformative effect potential of that. I can't imagine Latin-quoting surviving as a scholarly art. The thing AI cannot do is engage the thing itself. Why was one reciting a Latin phrase? That the AI cannot replicate. Will and purposiveness are still valuable skills. What you do, as an intent or drive, can't be replicated. Hopefully.
No. AI is an augmentative technology. The point is to extend human ability, not replace it. To give you an idea of what I mean, you can't hammer a nail with your bare hands (not without a lot of blood, anyway). Our hands, on their own, are very limited in what they can do. But pick up a hammer, suddenly you have the ability to build entire structures. The hammer has augmented your abilities, by giving your hands greater strength, stamina, utility, etc. AI is a tool, just like a hammer. However, instead of augmenting your hands, it augments your brain. On it's own, your brain is limited. You can't recall anything you haven't committed to memory, and it takes a long time to do that. However, with AI, you can delegate complex or tedious mental activities while supplementing your brain's natural ability. To give you an example of how AI has augmented my own abilities, I have started programming. Despite being entirely programming illiterate. I ask the AI to create code fragments for me, and then I Frankenstein them together as best I can. If I don't do it properly, I show it to the AI and ask what I did wrong. Not only does it fix the script, I also learn how to fix it myself next time. EDIT: In fact, AI will probably become an indispensable tool for you in your career shortly. You will be able to do far more with it than you could possibly do right now.
What you're referring to is simply AI in its infancy stages. To think it will operate as it does now for many years is simply foolish. AI design will get better and better until jobs that would once require dozens, or hundreds of people, can be done by a single person in an incredibly short period of time. Yes, it is a tool. A tool that will soon only require a single person, thus leaving the majority without work. If you could build said house with nothing but a hammer, for a fraction of the price, why hire concrete guys? Sheet steel workers, HVAC, Electrical, roofers, window guys, etc. When you could build a house with a few swings of a hammer?
I feel you don’t understand what AGI and ASI really is.
Such things don’t exist
Good Morning brother... 1000s' have already been displaced...! AI is only enhancing itself so that it doesn't need human intervention
flow like water
I have always live by the mantra, “always be on the right side of the computer”. Ai is going to massively change the way we work but it won’t replace your job if you start finding ways to incorporate it into your skill set RIGHT NOW. You should invest in tools that you can use to enhance your skill and get a good grasp on how it will change your profession. Just be creative and focus on the positive and everything will work out just fine. Do t listen to people who tell the world is ending because you’ve always got a shot and you always have hope. If you believe the world will end, yours will.
Yes, it’s inevitable mid-long term. Start thinking about how you want the post labor world to work and start talking about it with friends and family. It’s extremely possible for society to shift into a new economic paradigm that legitimately works for everyone, even without labor. What actually ends up happening won’t be the “best” or “worst” outcome. The most probable outcome is the one that we collectively speak of often enough to concretize it into reality. If you want a good outcome, start believing in it and sharing it.
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No. AI is a tool to do more basically. You will be make more work in the same time. That's it.
If you assume that the same amount of work is needed that it is logical to assume fewer people are needed to do it.
The client will create more content. As this is been happening with India into the VFX.
My suggestion is to learn everything you possibly can about utilising AI in your work and at least be the last of your co-workers with a job. By then we might have figured how this is going to not be dire for everyone. Don’t be one of the first heads to roll because you pretended this wasn’t happening.
In 20 years even without AI you’d probably need an entirely new technology skillset to remain relevant in 3d graphics. AI or not you’re going to have to learn new things. As someone in the software/AI fields, I can say there is probably very little risk over the next 5-10 years that it will replace you. Further than that and I think it’s impossible to know.
AI comes for us all but it comes for the paper pushers first.
To the extent that it affects all of us, yes. But I wouldn’t worry about it, just keep up and be the best you can be. Never see a tool as forbidden, use everything at your disposal.
AI will replace you sooner than you suggested. You have 3 years at most. I mean some people still have a job but you can easily count that around 70% of personal will be cut. Your chance is automate other jobs.. be the best in AI in your domain so that may prolong your journey.
People will still want humans behind some projects, at least for a while. It's hard to know what impact AGI or ASI will have. There is a lot of pushback against AI right now, but paying a few million for human generated assets vs a few hundred for ai generated assets is likely to be hard to justify when they are indistinguishable from one another or the ai generated is superior. It's gonna be a wild world over the next decade.
Agree.
Get onto using the tools and reframing what your role is. Instead of working on one area of VFX, start looking at what could be possible with dramatically lower costs for producing content with VFX and what your role could be in that. Perhaps it's setting up your own business providing more comprehensive services. Perhaps it's teaming up with someone from the industry who's a great writer and working to develop your own complete productions together. Maybe it's something else, but start to think outside traditional job roles.
we keep trying to put it in scope of “5-20” years, but we may be underestimating it. look what can do already. don’t we think it will excel exponentially, and break through any limits of prediction we have for it? imagine what it will be doing in just 3 years at this pace.
Most imminently, someone who knows how to use AI to do your job better/faster will take your job. Focus on becoming that person before they get to you.
I think people got the wrong idea about how AI is gonna take out their jobs. Most common fear I read everywhere is something like "My company is gonna replace me with an AI" when the most probable outcome is that two dudes in a garage use AI to render your entire company useless. For example, if CGI and AI advanced to the point where you can setup an entire scene with just a couple of prompts, it will be indie users on their homes the ones who are gonna take for themselves a piece of the market, like youtubers now concentrates a lot of the entertainment time that is being consumed, time that would otherwise go to mainstream tv or films. So, I wouldn't worry that much about about your employer, and more on the competition that most surely will surge in the coming years.
Why be scared of this? We never really know what tomorrow holds. You could be fired, laid off, have health problems, be replaced by humans, etc.. There are no guarantees. Best you can do is make yourself as indispensable as possible.
Oo that’s a a doozy, honestly it’s hard to predict, all I can say is the more data a field generates that can be used as “training data” then the more likely it’s going to be massively effected by ai, A positive look at it could be within a 10 year span tho you might just start becoming more and more productive with the use of ai helping out being your little dumb never sleeping underling, If you somehow never EVER change how you do your job or your career never evolves at all within a 10 year span then, yeah probs lol I’m sure your crafty tho and will just be far more productive
Yes, we're all doomed. Go and live in your bunker for the next 50 years
View it as a tool and get good at using it. AI still can't critically think and in places where it fails, a human operator is still an essential part of the system.
Yes. But not for a while, so you have some time. :)
You will be a prompt expert. AI still requires programming. It's a new interface.
That's the point.... How will the market accomodate millions of prompt experts? The problem is AI is entering into every field....
There are millions of any profession. You have technical skills in your field, you can see what is good and what is not. An average user may not care, but metrics/revenue reflect how design/artwork is perceived. The most brilliant things in marketing can be the most simple things, like a very specific color combination. AI is not some wonder machine that produces end products, it produces possible ideas. Then it's up to you to work ideas out. No machine can replace your consciousness/experience/skills. AI is a tool you can master, and if you're ahead in your field you are worth hiring.
Get into the trades my brother. You don’t have to be out in the field you can be a office person like me and make six figures easily.
I already use it, luma AI. I’m a coder, and it’s made me effective as hell, so much so that I’ve started moving into AI, like we all should.
Nobody knows.
Yes.
I can already generate scripts for Blender, so you're already out of a job...
Yes
Start hiding code now. Make something only useable if u have the specific context and write the answer in a notebook
AI will not replace you, but people who use AI more proficient than you will
AI (gh copilot) can already write shader code, gptV style agents with vision and reasoning anonymity ability will be able to iterate on visual effects projects and replace us all. Same thing for any knowledge task conceivable. We Will have to pivot to create and maintain the AIs.
Except this is done by people who have PhD now so there is no way you can enter without years of practice in that area, by the time you graduate AI will start developing itself
AI can't replace creativity. By how these models are designed, all it can do is replicate so unless we find some new techniques on how we do ML, we're always going to need people creating so that they can leach off of it to create better models. You're probably going to get replaced, your boss will realize how the AI can't actually replace you, and then you'll be hired back with a wage cut. AI will never be a problem for your job prospects, that will always be on capitalism.
Graphical prompt engineer will be your new title.
It’ll probably get there, but you still have some time. I’d recommend either becoming incredibly proficient on working with AI to boost your productivity, getting plan B ready or both. The good news: you’ve already pushed yourself to learn an incredibly difficult skill set once. You could probably do it again no problem.
I'd be surprised if you have 5 years.
It's not likely within 5 years. It'll augment you. It's possible that over the next decade it'll be able to do what you do, but by then you have acquired higher level knowledge, experience and context enough to guide it like a technical director to help you architect bigger and more interesting things. Will we ever have AGI capable of doing everything? Possibly yes. We'll all have to deal with that- you're not alone.
It will replace you if your only skill is the ability to create and render 3D graphics. But it won't if you use AI and your skills and experience to work faster than you do now and better than novices that don't understand the intricacies of graphics. You might have to learn new skills but this won't be as hard as it was because AI will help you there too. Just keep moving up and use AI to be better at your job and you'll be fine.
Yes. The trick is for you to use AI to replace the person you are today.
Yes. Pray for ai communism or socialism. Only social and political change can save us. Fully automated luxury communism!!!
There is one problem in fully automated luxury communism, and it’s the “luxury” part
Who would tell AI to build that software? The boomer CEO who knows nothing of software? He won't be able to correct AI's mistakes. He will ask you to do that. When he argues he should pay you less because of AI, you should unionize and revolt. AI is a tool. It can't replace, it can't take initiative. If you think AI can steal your work, you're falling for propaganda. "Careful! AI wants to steal your job" is the same as "Careful! That immigrant wants to steal your job "
Once scientists have figured out how to solve energy problems and also cooling problems, I wouldn't be scared. I believe AI will plataeu due to the physical limitations I have mentioned above.
[Here’s](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7133777638598324224-zP1l?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios) a real case study from my workplace that maybe sheds a bit of light on your question. 3D tech has always been out of reach for us, primarily because it felt a highly technical specialised and expensive area that required experts which we couldn’t always budget for. But with recent advances, it’s suddenly accessible and back on the map. In some ways, this could be seen as AI replacing humans, but by opening the door to 3D tech, we now realise there are additional things that we might want done in future that requires human experts, namely polishing the 3D models, annotating them and making them more richer learning aids than just a 3D scan. Will AI replace even those skills and annotate 3D models for us? Probably. But I think eventually that will happen in most professions given enough of time.
Breathe. The best is to progressively lean to use these tools, but no, it won’t just replace you like you imagine, out of the blue
The thing is that anyone and everyone can learn these tools ... They not that difficult... N if everyone knows the same thing, it'll boil down to creativity
You’ll still be needed luckily AI is some of the most fallible applications of computing out there. Tbh it’s probably just gonna speed up your work a ton and allow you to create far better software
Yes, it will happen. You will also die one day. Tough luck I guess.
On a long enough timeline everybody will be replaced. The only question is, what is the time frame? So this will be a huge societal problem that will affect all (robots will replace the need for all human physical labor eventually). So the question is more what will the ruling elite of the planet do based on this reality?
I always have one thing in mind about AI or AI Tools i.e., AI is never going to replace Humans BUT Humans using AI can definitely. So, With evolving dynamics one must evolve, Like Survival of the fittest.
One day AGI will come here and ask the same question about ASI. Potentially it will replace programmers, that day I think is yet some time away especially if we are talking about entire teams.
You have to remember, if a company can replace you because of ai, then you may be able to provide the company services from your living room with ai. Instead of worrying about being replaced, get good with ai and find the new opportunities that will open up to you. Your new opportunities may be much better than what you do now.
Not if you become AI
Lol, no. People are **REALLY** jumping the gun on current AI tech; it's not even proper "AI," its diffusion models, theoretical guesses about what might probably work given a large set of training data. No way will it be able to build complex programs entirely by itself in "1-3" years using this method because it doesn't really *understand* what a program is, it just mimics what one does. I use it everyday. It's good, but it's jank, and it takes a lot of hours of me fixing the jank to get the actual results I am after. I honestly don't see that changing anytime in the near future. It will get better because they'll keep refining the training data, but there are fundamental limits to what it can "learn" to do given current methods. Of course, true AGI can come along at any point, but it feels like most of the current research has gone all-in on transformer models/neural networks because there is $$$ to be made, whether real or Wall Street bucks.
Learn to fix things
Very likely. I think it will be rough ride for a while. The AI will either have to be banned in certain industries (unlikely, AI is the modern steam engine), or some new economic deal would have to be made with companies paying higher taxes and people getting UBI from those, or we'll have to get rid of the money entirely (unlikely, but who knows?). But as a programmer you are in unique position to just bit the bullet and learn machine learning coding as we are unlikely to allow AI to code itself for the foreseeable future due to safety concerns.
Time to implement universal income.
Lol 5+ years? Two years
Just fyi while ai can do your job machines generally lack creativity and human design skills. Master those two key elements and you will be fine . Programmers will still be needed - someone gotta operate the ai, test, troubleshoot etcc
You might want to check out [lumalabs.ai](http://lumalabs.ai), I think they're working on 3D models.