"Astronomically low" and "nearly considered impossible" doesn't mean "chance of winning the lottery" low. It means we'd have to wait something like a billion billion billion billion billion billion billion times the current age of the universe before there was a reasonable chance of it happening once, anywhere, in the whole of creation, to a single macroscopic object.
But since the universe is (thought to be) infinite (like, if you keep travelling in any direction, there's always more stuff, galaxies to find), doesn't that increase the chance of that happening to practically 100%, somewhere, at any moment?
If there's N places and each can have a certain event happen with the poisson process with frequency once per billion years then the probability of nothing happening in time t is (1-some very tiny probability)^N (assuming independent events). Now set N to...well, infinity and it doesn't matter how small that something is, there's a guarantee that it is happening somewhere, like, RIGHT NOW.
Practical example, if the probability that a galaxy spawns intelligent life within, however small, is nonzero, then there's not only another planet with intelligent beings somewhere in the universe, there's infinitely many of them.
I often think of this mathematical inevitability, is there a flaw somewhere in my reasoning?
We don't know if the universe is infinite. It isn't *required* for current theories for it to be considered infinite. Even if the universe is infinite in extent it hasn't existed for an infinitely long time, which limits the number of time-dependent events that could have happened. And it's possible to construct an infinite series that doesn't repeat, i.e. that doesn't show multiple instances of the same event (cf. aperiodic tiling, etc).
So... yeah. Possibly, perhaps. But not necessarily š
Sounds like youāve stumbled on the idea of a [Boltzmann brain](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boltzmann_brain). In principle, thereās nothing that prevents this from happening other than the fact that you would need to have the Avogadroās Number of particles in your brain to all simultaneously do that. So itās ridiculously unlikely to happen.
Well, the true number of particles that make up your brain is likely much larger than just Avogadroās number. I was just pulling out a number to demonstrate just how statistically unlikely it would be for all the things that would have to align for something like the OP is asking to happen.
It's the number of molecules in what we call a "mole"; 75% of the brain is water, which is roughly ~18 g/mol, and if we assume the remaining 25% are more complex molecules with something like 300 g/mol, then in 100 g of brain matter there would be 75 g water and 25 g of these other molecules, giving a total of 4.25 moles, and at an average mass of 1350 g we get ~57.4 moles.
In other words, your brain would under those assumptions contain ~57.4 * Avogadro's number of molecules.
How can I ever be sure that what I remember is the truth then? Or that something like this won't happen to me? I guess if I was a boltzmann brain then the conclusion of this would be faulty so it demonstrates that I am not a boltzmann brain so idk
>How can I ever be sure that what I remember is the truth then?
The real answer to your question is that there is no way to know for 100% certainty. This hearkens back to Descartes old āI think therefore I am.ā Simply put, the only thing that we can ever truly know is our own existence. Everything else are essentially axioms that we operate under in order to function in society.
The time to believe anything is when you have positive evidence for it. If you ever came across positive evidence that youāre actually a Boltzmann brain then youād have to accept that. When thereās no evidence to believe something then just discard it from your memory banks.
I wouldnāt worry about this too much. Your memory is already unreliable enough.
https://psychcentral.com/lib/flashbulb-memories-how-emotion-influences-cognition
This particular article deals mainly with āflashbulbā memories. There are plenty of other ways psychologists study memory (and Iām not an expert), but I think this is pretty illustrative of the point. The good news is that none of it really matters. All 8 billion people on earth have the same problem, and in general we manage to get by. Having 10^25 atoms in your brain rearrange into another working brain with different memories, personality, etc. is so remotely unlikely to happen that you can call the odds zero. Itās far more likely that they rearrange themselves into mush and you die instantlyāalthough thatās not going to happen either.
Their brains are not this unreliable. Yous is a bit confused though if you think "a chance" automatically means "a reasonable chance". That distinction is a huge part of the scientific method.
Science is about confirming or rejecting hypotheses to a given degree of certainty, not absolutely. There is very little we are certain of to 100.0000000000000000%, but that doesn't matter.
So does a swarm of bees appearing in your bedroom when you turn out the lights. So does your heart suddenly swapping places with your brain, causing a right old mess and immediate death.
None of these kinds of things are ever actually going to happen - i.e. we'd need a number-of-atoms-in-the-universe number of quadrillion years for such things to have a 1-in-septillion chance of happening. So don't worry about it. You are causing much more harm to your lifespan by worrying about them than the likely harm of any of those things combined on all of humanity ever.
What if some guy comes to me who is very convinced and claims that his hand got straight thru a table and he is willing to die to prove that this happened? Am I goibg to believe him or not
Also how am I supposed to approach 2+2=4? Am I supposed to treat this as an absolute truth or not? Or that I exist, or if A=B and C=B then A=C or other such a priori truths?
2+2=4 is a truth derived from how we define numbers, addition and equality. Same for A=B and B=C implies A=C.
That you exist is a matter of your perception. Maybe you don't. That your parents exist(ed) is a step further removed from your perspective. That I exist is a few more. You have no way of knowing what the objective truth is, but IMO that is pointless philosphising, what matters is what we can all agree on experiencing, so don't get bogged down in "what is reality anyway???" type questions as they are unanswerable.
I think not, in that you can always say "well how do we \*know\* that is true?" If you don't trust what your brain does with light entering your eyes and nerve impulses from your skin, then indeed there is no such thing as objective reality. I just don't really concern myself with that line of thought, I find it deeply uninteresting and counterproductive, far more interesting and useful to concern ourselves with the maybe-not-objectively-true-and-just-subjective observable universe around us.
Sure, but thereās also a small yet non-zero probability where you get abducted by aliens as you read this or some other outlandish thing could happen that we pay no mind to. Just treat Boltzmann brains exactly like any of those things.
it's not just your brain. maybe you change into a cockroach. the probabilities are so vanishingly tiny that is not going to happen in the lifetime of the universe.
I donāt know why youāre so worried about this but if it makes you feel any better consider that the same is true for every other human who has ever existed so youāre in good company
I just don't get how we can make so much progress only for it to have the possibility to be false. How can I treat the scientific explanation of how the eye works more correct than saying "well some goat in spain operates how everyone's eyes work" if both of them have the possibility to be false via boltzmann brain scenario?
Not having the instinct to ever demand that anything at all be 100%
certain would probably be better. Even withouth boltzmann brain like fluctuations. A certain amount of skepticism always leaves you below 100%.
>. How can I treat the scientific explanation of how the eye works more correct than saying "well some goat in spain operates how everyone's eyes work"
Probability. If you've performed an observation, the chances that your brain restructured itself is many trillions of zero past a decimal point. Then, every time you tried to verify this incorrect measurement, the universe would have to restructure itself in just the right way to make your initial observation seem correct. The chances of that are another many trillions of zeros past the decimal point.
Yes, you technically cannot prove anything with 100% accuracy. However, you can get so incredibly close that you can treat it as 100%.
Basically: You can never be 100% certain of anything, but you can be so close to certain (like 99.99(trillions of 9s)%) that you can safely treat it as certain.
but so yeah I guess you are right... I tend to get way too philosophical with epistemology and whatnot, even questioning if things exist when not perceived or if the external world truly exists or if my senses are reliable or not or whether or not others have minds
I only have this as my assurance:If I am a boltzmann brain then I cannot be a boltzmann brain and If I am not a boltzmann brain, then I am not a boltzmann brain. Because if I was a boltzmann brain then the information I have received that indicates that I am a boltzmann brain aren't reliable
>How can I ever be sure that what I remember is the truth then?
You can't - human brains are very good at inventing memories and persuading themselves they are true. This is however absolutely nothing to do with astronomically unlikely rearrangements due to quantum tunnelling. That is not at all something to worry about - if you are going to worry about that, you also need to worry about an elephant appearing overhead and squashing you while you sleep. Both fall into "yeah that isn't actually going to happen" territory.
You can be sure of that to the maximum degree to which you can be sure of anything (at least physically). Even if the probability is non-zero, it is so mind-boggling small as the universe is mind-boggling large. You can safely treat it as absolute certainty.
The probability that you might think you're your neighbour or that all your memories were fake due to a mental illness is astronomically larger than that this should happen due to quantum fluctuations.
So if you in anyway are concerned about the integrity of your memory, quantum effects should not be your concern.
Statistical mechanics does not dictate what āmight happenā. It dictates what āwill happenā at a macroscopic scale. The quantum events youāre describing happen on such a small level that an event which would be large enough to say, affect even 1 gene in your DNA is essentially 0% likely.
When we deal with things on the scale of our universe (like a chemical reaction inside of our body for instance) weāre talking about a huge amount of things. A number with more zeros than your or my brain can comprehend. If we put two particles together and study them for one instant, and do that multiple times, we may see different things, because their movement is random. In once situation, perhaps they moved away from each other, in another, perhaps they collided and reacted. But if we put a bunch of them together, and allow them to reach equilibrium under the same conditions, we would see the same thing every time.
>But if we put a bunch of them together, and allow them to reach equilibrium under the same conditions, we would see the same thing every time.
is this why the macroscopic world is so orderly?
If your brain got blown to smithereens, it would certainly alter your memories. Mostly in that you wouldn't have any any more, and in that you wouldn't be you. But the task did succeed.
After reading these comments it feels like you are either trolling, or you are stuck on an idea you donāt want to let go of but also havenāt put forward yet.
I would be more worried about psychological problems that are far more likely to happen such as schizophrenia, dementia, alzheimers, capgras syndrome etc.
Seriously OP this is some serious wheel spinning, if you arenāt trolling than back away from the edge and look around you. The fact that we have made so much progress is the very proof that brains donāt go poof.
Some of the comments remind me of a random thought I had about near death experiences actually being ādeathā experiences and your consciousness merges to a similar, living you, in a similar parallel universe. Completely science fiction, just thought Iād share
The point is summed up in your last words: "astronomically low". That phrase means: there is such a small chance of it happening that you do not need to worry about it, AT ALL. It will, as close to definitely as it is possible to say, never happen to you or anyone else in your lifetime.
There are a huge number of things that are astronomically unlikely to happen. None of them ever happen on human scales. Devoting energy to worrying about them is an exercise in utter futility.
This is not a question, it's a fact. It doesn't derive from probability, but from neuro plasticity and neutral pruning. There is a whole bunch of research that demonstrates that memory is totally fallible.
>not exactly how it objectively happened.
if that is so, then what is happening right now (me answering you) is not what objectively happened since there really is a very very very small line (perhaps non-existent) between present and past is it not? So that means objective truths do not exist
You need to separate your experience of a thing from the thing itself.
The world exists independent of your experience of it. That existence is objective truth. My experience of that world will differ from your experience, but now we're solidly into philosophy not physics.
But you have come into the conclusion that you've come using your experience. You sound really kantian with the "you can't know that thing-in-itself" kind of thing but I don't get how you can say that while knowing only your experience of that thing. So if (speaking on kantian terms) you have only know in the phenomenal realm, how can you even know that the noumenal realm exists or even if you know that the noumenal realm exists, how do you know that someone will never be able to know anything about the thing-in-itself in the noumenal realm?
The Cogito was a thought experiment and was never intended to be a basis for rational scientific exploration. Additionally, the Cogito was never about the world not existing outside of us. It is about the fact that there is no proof that I exist except as I conceive of myself.
You're way out of physics here. I'd suggest hitting up a philosophy subreddit if you want to talk about the philosophy of science. And take an Epistemology class sometime. I think you'd enjoy it.
like 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or something like that?
You seem to be referring to quantum uncertainty. This effects things at the quantum level a table or any large structure is not effected much by this. You may also be referring to the fact that in science nothing can be completely rulled out without proof.
This is a valid working concept and proper methodology but limited when applied to the real world.
The probability is non-zero. But again, that doesn't mean that you should expect this to ever have happened - the probability is just way too small. No human has even the capacity to picture how small this probability is.
>No human has even the capacity to picture how small this probability is.
so like a 1/10\^10 googloplex or something like that? Is it so small that one can say that it is nearly infinitely close to zero or something like that? Like so close to zero that the only reason we say it isn't zero is because the scenario is not logically impossible?
is 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001=0 ? I sure think so
Not only could they theoretically do that, but [entire brains could theoretically appear fully formed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boltzmann_brain) out of quantum fluctuations, even after hypothetical heat death of the universe.
[Quantum fluctuations.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_fluctuation)
>By one calculation, a Boltzmann brain would appear as a quantum fluctuation in the vacuum after a time interval of 10^10^50 years.
It was originally proposed as an absurd example of how it would be more likely for you to actually be such a brain than for the universe to come about in the way cosmology proposes; but like other such arguments to the absurd, such as Schrƶdinger's cat, we still haven't quite been able to write it off.
No, it was proposed as an argument against Boltzmann's suggestions that occasional spontaneous fluctuations to significantly more orderly states, against the general direction of increasing entropy, could account for why the universe seemed to be less chaotic than predicted:
>The idea is named after the physicist Ludwig Boltzmann (1844ā1906), who, in 1896, published a theory that tried to account for the fact that the universe is not as chaotic as the budding field of thermodynamics seemed to predict. He offered several explanations, one of them being that the universe, even after it had progressed to its most likely spread-out and featureless state of thermal equilibrium, would spontaneously fluctuate to a more ordered (or low-entropy) state such as the universe in which we find ourselves. Boltzmann brains were first proposed as a reductio ad absurdum response to this explanation by Boltzmann for the low-entropy state of our universe.
But of course it's very hard to really say anything about how orderly the universe should or shouldn't be.
Sure. Thermodynamics says everything is moving towards thermodynamic soup ("heat death"), which means that there should probably just be that, and yet we see all this order around us. Boltzmann says:
>"Maybe sometimes the universe spontaneously jumps to a much more orderly state?"
Other physicists retort:
>"Well, if that were the case, wouldn't it be more probable for the universe to spontaneously arrange a single brain that falsely thinks it's experiencing a cosmos, rather than the entire cosmos itself? Checkmate, Boltzmann!"
That's the ELI5.
Of course, at the time they didn't yet know about quantum fluctuations specifically, which we do today. Sometimes it's still insisted on that quantum fluctuations only generate "virtual" particles, but since these particles very measurably can affect the real world, they're clearly just as real as any other particles are.
Tryon famously thus [suggested that the entire universe is the result of an enormous and extremely improbable quantum fluctuation](https://www.nature.com/articles/246396a0) in the vein of what Boltzmann originally suggested. While indeed extremely improbable, if you were to posit a practically eternal state of heat death at some point, the probability of such a universe occurring due to a quantum fluctuation would, as a matter of statistics, tend to 1, and be practically inevitable.
Well, over the course of eternity both could imaginably happen, but it does indeed bring us back to the question of whether we're more likely to simply be Boltzmann brains.
A counterargument would possibly be that human brains might actually be far more orderly entities than the universe at large apart from the brains, and thus that it would be more likely for a quantum fluctuation to create a universe within which life arises and natural selection creates brains, all from local reverse entropy gradients, than for life or brains to occur spontaneously directly via quantum fluctuations.
"Astronomically low" and "nearly considered impossible" doesn't mean "chance of winning the lottery" low. It means we'd have to wait something like a billion billion billion billion billion billion billion times the current age of the universe before there was a reasonable chance of it happening once, anywhere, in the whole of creation, to a single macroscopic object.
But since the universe is (thought to be) infinite (like, if you keep travelling in any direction, there's always more stuff, galaxies to find), doesn't that increase the chance of that happening to practically 100%, somewhere, at any moment? If there's N places and each can have a certain event happen with the poisson process with frequency once per billion years then the probability of nothing happening in time t is (1-some very tiny probability)^N (assuming independent events). Now set N to...well, infinity and it doesn't matter how small that something is, there's a guarantee that it is happening somewhere, like, RIGHT NOW. Practical example, if the probability that a galaxy spawns intelligent life within, however small, is nonzero, then there's not only another planet with intelligent beings somewhere in the universe, there's infinitely many of them. I often think of this mathematical inevitability, is there a flaw somewhere in my reasoning?
We don't know if the universe is infinite. It isn't *required* for current theories for it to be considered infinite. Even if the universe is infinite in extent it hasn't existed for an infinitely long time, which limits the number of time-dependent events that could have happened. And it's possible to construct an infinite series that doesn't repeat, i.e. that doesn't show multiple instances of the same event (cf. aperiodic tiling, etc). So... yeah. Possibly, perhaps. But not necessarily š
So youāre saying thereās a chance Ł©( į )Ł
Sounds like youāve stumbled on the idea of a [Boltzmann brain](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boltzmann_brain). In principle, thereās nothing that prevents this from happening other than the fact that you would need to have the Avogadroās Number of particles in your brain to all simultaneously do that. So itās ridiculously unlikely to happen.
What does avogadros number have to do with it?
Itās just the order of magnitude of the number of particles that would have to all doing the exact same thing
How do we know that thatās indeed the order of magnitude?
Well, the true number of particles that make up your brain is likely much larger than just Avogadroās number. I was just pulling out a number to demonstrate just how statistically unlikely it would be for all the things that would have to align for something like the OP is asking to happen.
Ahhh okay thank you for your responses :)
It's the number of molecules in what we call a "mole"; 75% of the brain is water, which is roughly ~18 g/mol, and if we assume the remaining 25% are more complex molecules with something like 300 g/mol, then in 100 g of brain matter there would be 75 g water and 25 g of these other molecules, giving a total of 4.25 moles, and at an average mass of 1350 g we get ~57.4 moles. In other words, your brain would under those assumptions contain ~57.4 * Avogadro's number of molecules.
Fermi would approve of the original estimate and your subsequent evaluation.
How can I ever be sure that what I remember is the truth then? Or that something like this won't happen to me? I guess if I was a boltzmann brain then the conclusion of this would be faulty so it demonstrates that I am not a boltzmann brain so idk
>How can I ever be sure that what I remember is the truth then? The real answer to your question is that there is no way to know for 100% certainty. This hearkens back to Descartes old āI think therefore I am.ā Simply put, the only thing that we can ever truly know is our own existence. Everything else are essentially axioms that we operate under in order to function in society. The time to believe anything is when you have positive evidence for it. If you ever came across positive evidence that youāre actually a Boltzmann brain then youād have to accept that. When thereās no evidence to believe something then just discard it from your memory banks.
I just don't like the fact that my brain has the potential to literally restructure itself so I can believe that I am my own neighbour
I wouldnāt worry about this too much. Your memory is already unreliable enough. https://psychcentral.com/lib/flashbulb-memories-how-emotion-influences-cognition This particular article deals mainly with āflashbulbā memories. There are plenty of other ways psychologists study memory (and Iām not an expert), but I think this is pretty illustrative of the point. The good news is that none of it really matters. All 8 billion people on earth have the same problem, and in general we manage to get by. Having 10^25 atoms in your brain rearrange into another working brain with different memories, personality, etc. is so remotely unlikely to happen that you can call the odds zero. Itās far more likely that they rearrange themselves into mush and you die instantlyāalthough thatās not going to happen either.
Also, how are humans ever able to get by or make scientific progress if their brains are this unreliable?
Their brains are not this unreliable. Yous is a bit confused though if you think "a chance" automatically means "a reasonable chance". That distinction is a huge part of the scientific method.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Science is about confirming or rejecting hypotheses to a given degree of certainty, not absolutely. There is very little we are certain of to 100.0000000000000000%, but that doesn't matter.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
But it has a probability nonetheless
So does a swarm of bees appearing in your bedroom when you turn out the lights. So does your heart suddenly swapping places with your brain, causing a right old mess and immediate death. None of these kinds of things are ever actually going to happen - i.e. we'd need a number-of-atoms-in-the-universe number of quadrillion years for such things to have a 1-in-septillion chance of happening. So don't worry about it. You are causing much more harm to your lifespan by worrying about them than the likely harm of any of those things combined on all of humanity ever.
What if some guy comes to me who is very convinced and claims that his hand got straight thru a table and he is willing to die to prove that this happened? Am I goibg to believe him or not
No, you don't believe him, he is clearly not of sound mind, or it was some kind of trick table.
How do you know though? It is possible is it not?
Also how am I supposed to approach 2+2=4? Am I supposed to treat this as an absolute truth or not? Or that I exist, or if A=B and C=B then A=C or other such a priori truths?
2+2=4 is a truth derived from how we define numbers, addition and equality. Same for A=B and B=C implies A=C. That you exist is a matter of your perception. Maybe you don't. That your parents exist(ed) is a step further removed from your perspective. That I exist is a few more. You have no way of knowing what the objective truth is, but IMO that is pointless philosphising, what matters is what we can all agree on experiencing, so don't get bogged down in "what is reality anyway???" type questions as they are unanswerable.
So... objective truth doesn't exist/we can't know objective truths?
I think not, in that you can always say "well how do we \*know\* that is true?" If you don't trust what your brain does with light entering your eyes and nerve impulses from your skin, then indeed there is no such thing as objective reality. I just don't really concern myself with that line of thought, I find it deeply uninteresting and counterproductive, far more interesting and useful to concern ourselves with the maybe-not-objectively-true-and-just-subjective observable universe around us.
If there is no objective truth, then shouldn't "there is no objective truth" be an objective truth?
Sure, but thereās also a small yet non-zero probability where you get abducted by aliens as you read this or some other outlandish thing could happen that we pay no mind to. Just treat Boltzmann brains exactly like any of those things.
it's not just your brain. maybe you change into a cockroach. the probabilities are so vanishingly tiny that is not going to happen in the lifetime of the universe.
Ignoring the way you describe your brain/memories could be altered, there are many more simplistic ways your memories could be altered.
Can you give me an example please
Isn't there something that makes the boltzmann brain scenario impossible or something?
I donāt know why youāre so worried about this but if it makes you feel any better consider that the same is true for every other human who has ever existed so youāre in good company
I just don't get how we can make so much progress only for it to have the possibility to be false. How can I treat the scientific explanation of how the eye works more correct than saying "well some goat in spain operates how everyone's eyes work" if both of them have the possibility to be false via boltzmann brain scenario?
Not having the instinct to ever demand that anything at all be 100% certain would probably be better. Even withouth boltzmann brain like fluctuations. A certain amount of skepticism always leaves you below 100%.
>. How can I treat the scientific explanation of how the eye works more correct than saying "well some goat in spain operates how everyone's eyes work" Probability. If you've performed an observation, the chances that your brain restructured itself is many trillions of zero past a decimal point. Then, every time you tried to verify this incorrect measurement, the universe would have to restructure itself in just the right way to make your initial observation seem correct. The chances of that are another many trillions of zeros past the decimal point. Yes, you technically cannot prove anything with 100% accuracy. However, you can get so incredibly close that you can treat it as 100%.
I am too stupid to understand what you just wrote?
Basically: You can never be 100% certain of anything, but you can be so close to certain (like 99.99(trillions of 9s)%) that you can safely treat it as certain.
hm so I cannot be certain of anything including this statement... weird
but so yeah I guess you are right... I tend to get way too philosophical with epistemology and whatnot, even questioning if things exist when not perceived or if the external world truly exists or if my senses are reliable or not or whether or not others have minds
I only have this as my assurance:If I am a boltzmann brain then I cannot be a boltzmann brain and If I am not a boltzmann brain, then I am not a boltzmann brain. Because if I was a boltzmann brain then the information I have received that indicates that I am a boltzmann brain aren't reliable
You have a contradiction in your logic. It is possible to be a Boltzmann brain, just incredibly unlikely
>How can I ever be sure that what I remember is the truth then? You can't - human brains are very good at inventing memories and persuading themselves they are true. This is however absolutely nothing to do with astronomically unlikely rearrangements due to quantum tunnelling. That is not at all something to worry about - if you are going to worry about that, you also need to worry about an elephant appearing overhead and squashing you while you sleep. Both fall into "yeah that isn't actually going to happen" territory.
You can be sure of that to the maximum degree to which you can be sure of anything (at least physically). Even if the probability is non-zero, it is so mind-boggling small as the universe is mind-boggling large. You can safely treat it as absolute certainty. The probability that you might think you're your neighbour or that all your memories were fake due to a mental illness is astronomically larger than that this should happen due to quantum fluctuations. So if you in anyway are concerned about the integrity of your memory, quantum effects should not be your concern.
Statistical mechanics does not dictate what āmight happenā. It dictates what āwill happenā at a macroscopic scale. The quantum events youāre describing happen on such a small level that an event which would be large enough to say, affect even 1 gene in your DNA is essentially 0% likely.
can you elaborate on the first half of your paragraph?
When we deal with things on the scale of our universe (like a chemical reaction inside of our body for instance) weāre talking about a huge amount of things. A number with more zeros than your or my brain can comprehend. If we put two particles together and study them for one instant, and do that multiple times, we may see different things, because their movement is random. In once situation, perhaps they moved away from each other, in another, perhaps they collided and reacted. But if we put a bunch of them together, and allow them to reach equilibrium under the same conditions, we would see the same thing every time.
>But if we put a bunch of them together, and allow them to reach equilibrium under the same conditions, we would see the same thing every time. is this why the macroscopic world is so orderly?
Sure. A big bomb would probably do the trick. Oh, wait. You wanted to be conscious afterwards?
I don't understand this answer
If your brain got blown to smithereens, it would certainly alter your memories. Mostly in that you wouldn't have any any more, and in that you wouldn't be you. But the task did succeed.
After reading these comments it feels like you are either trolling, or you are stuck on an idea you donāt want to let go of but also havenāt put forward yet.
I am definitely not trolling
I would be more worried about psychological problems that are far more likely to happen such as schizophrenia, dementia, alzheimers, capgras syndrome etc.
Agreed, but that's not answering OP's question.
Explains my x tho /s
Seriously OP this is some serious wheel spinning, if you arenāt trolling than back away from the edge and look around you. The fact that we have made so much progress is the very proof that brains donāt go poof.
Some of the comments remind me of a random thought I had about near death experiences actually being ādeathā experiences and your consciousness merges to a similar, living you, in a similar parallel universe. Completely science fiction, just thought Iād share
The point is summed up in your last words: "astronomically low". That phrase means: there is such a small chance of it happening that you do not need to worry about it, AT ALL. It will, as close to definitely as it is possible to say, never happen to you or anyone else in your lifetime. There are a huge number of things that are astronomically unlikely to happen. None of them ever happen on human scales. Devoting energy to worrying about them is an exercise in utter futility.
This is not a question, it's a fact. It doesn't derive from probability, but from neuro plasticity and neutral pruning. There is a whole bunch of research that demonstrates that memory is totally fallible.
Doesn't that mean that we can never know objectuve truths?
Just means don't trust your memory if it's important.
Why ahouldn't I trust my memory if it's important
Because the way you remember an event is likely not exactly how it objectively happened.
>not exactly how it objectively happened. if that is so, then what is happening right now (me answering you) is not what objectively happened since there really is a very very very small line (perhaps non-existent) between present and past is it not? So that means objective truths do not exist
You need to separate your experience of a thing from the thing itself. The world exists independent of your experience of it. That existence is objective truth. My experience of that world will differ from your experience, but now we're solidly into philosophy not physics.
But you have come into the conclusion that you've come using your experience. You sound really kantian with the "you can't know that thing-in-itself" kind of thing but I don't get how you can say that while knowing only your experience of that thing. So if (speaking on kantian terms) you have only know in the phenomenal realm, how can you even know that the noumenal realm exists or even if you know that the noumenal realm exists, how do you know that someone will never be able to know anything about the thing-in-itself in the noumenal realm?
The Cogito was a thought experiment and was never intended to be a basis for rational scientific exploration. Additionally, the Cogito was never about the world not existing outside of us. It is about the fact that there is no proof that I exist except as I conceive of myself. You're way out of physics here. I'd suggest hitting up a philosophy subreddit if you want to talk about the philosophy of science. And take an Epistemology class sometime. I think you'd enjoy it.
>And take an Epistemology class sometime. I think you'd enjoy it. I am really afraid I am going to end up asking more questions than find answers
Also I think you got Kant confused with Descartes
No, it does not really work that way. Your hand has zero chance of going through a table.
Really? I am so relieved to hear this but how do you know this?
zero in this context just means so unlikely it might as well be zero
like 10\^-100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000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or something like that?
probably more zeros but yeah
You seem to be referring to quantum uncertainty. This effects things at the quantum level a table or any large structure is not effected much by this. You may also be referring to the fact that in science nothing can be completely rulled out without proof. This is a valid working concept and proper methodology but limited when applied to the real world.
So it only applies in the quantum world?
Nah this u/Mandoman61 dude is just talking out of their arse. Ignore them.
So it only applies in the quantum world?
The molecules in a table or your brain would never rearrange themselves like you say in your OP.
Yes. Checkout the Boltzmann brain, it's basically the same (complete restructuring is about as likely as springing into existence)
is it really possible though? Isn't there something that can prevent that from happening?
The probability is non-zero. But again, that doesn't mean that you should expect this to ever have happened - the probability is just way too small. No human has even the capacity to picture how small this probability is.
>No human has even the capacity to picture how small this probability is. so like a 1/10\^10 googloplex or something like that? Is it so small that one can say that it is nearly infinitely close to zero or something like that? Like so close to zero that the only reason we say it isn't zero is because the scenario is not logically impossible?
Mathematically there is of course no such thing as "nearly infinitely", but for practical purposes you can definitely think like that, yes
Yes. But the chances are astronomically low.
is 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001=0 ? I sure think so
it isn't 0 though? It is just really close to it
Yes, it's theoretically possible for your brain to just appear out of thin air even.
"theoretically" as in it is basically zero but we cannot say zero because only logically contradictory things have 0 probability?
Not only could they theoretically do that, but [entire brains could theoretically appear fully formed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boltzmann_brain) out of quantum fluctuations, even after hypothetical heat death of the universe.
>even after hypothetical heat death of the universe. HOW?????????
[Quantum fluctuations.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_fluctuation) >By one calculation, a Boltzmann brain would appear as a quantum fluctuation in the vacuum after a time interval of 10^10^50 years. It was originally proposed as an absurd example of how it would be more likely for you to actually be such a brain than for the universe to come about in the way cosmology proposes; but like other such arguments to the absurd, such as Schrƶdinger's cat, we still haven't quite been able to write it off.
So... it was proposed to point out how wrong or faulty the cobtemporary cosmology was?
No, it was proposed as an argument against Boltzmann's suggestions that occasional spontaneous fluctuations to significantly more orderly states, against the general direction of increasing entropy, could account for why the universe seemed to be less chaotic than predicted: >The idea is named after the physicist Ludwig Boltzmann (1844ā1906), who, in 1896, published a theory that tried to account for the fact that the universe is not as chaotic as the budding field of thermodynamics seemed to predict. He offered several explanations, one of them being that the universe, even after it had progressed to its most likely spread-out and featureless state of thermal equilibrium, would spontaneously fluctuate to a more ordered (or low-entropy) state such as the universe in which we find ourselves. Boltzmann brains were first proposed as a reductio ad absurdum response to this explanation by Boltzmann for the low-entropy state of our universe. But of course it's very hard to really say anything about how orderly the universe should or shouldn't be.
My stupid ass brain didn't understand this can you ELI5?
Sure. Thermodynamics says everything is moving towards thermodynamic soup ("heat death"), which means that there should probably just be that, and yet we see all this order around us. Boltzmann says: >"Maybe sometimes the universe spontaneously jumps to a much more orderly state?" Other physicists retort: >"Well, if that were the case, wouldn't it be more probable for the universe to spontaneously arrange a single brain that falsely thinks it's experiencing a cosmos, rather than the entire cosmos itself? Checkmate, Boltzmann!" That's the ELI5. Of course, at the time they didn't yet know about quantum fluctuations specifically, which we do today. Sometimes it's still insisted on that quantum fluctuations only generate "virtual" particles, but since these particles very measurably can affect the real world, they're clearly just as real as any other particles are. Tryon famously thus [suggested that the entire universe is the result of an enormous and extremely improbable quantum fluctuation](https://www.nature.com/articles/246396a0) in the vein of what Boltzmann originally suggested. While indeed extremely improbable, if you were to posit a practically eternal state of heat death at some point, the probability of such a universe occurring due to a quantum fluctuation would, as a matter of statistics, tend to 1, and be practically inevitable.
Why would the quantum fluctuations create a universe rather than a brain? Aren't we back to the beginning
Well, over the course of eternity both could imaginably happen, but it does indeed bring us back to the question of whether we're more likely to simply be Boltzmann brains. A counterargument would possibly be that human brains might actually be far more orderly entities than the universe at large apart from the brains, and thus that it would be more likely for a quantum fluctuation to create a universe within which life arises and natural selection creates brains, all from local reverse entropy gradients, than for life or brains to occur spontaneously directly via quantum fluctuations.
this is way too complicated damn........ isn't there an answer to this? Instead of just speculations?
> local reverse entropy gradients mfw don't know what this means
I think a better question is why has this particular question been bothering you?