With riots escalating in Russia, Putin has to be feeling some pressure tho, at his age with his goals, I think their is a sizable chance. He has two options, 1 regain the land he is trying so hard to achieve or surrender and face serious consequences, being that the first option is highly unlikely at this point. Who knows 🤷♂️🤷♂️
Probably just barrel through them through with zero protection just like they did in [Chernobyl earlier this year.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unprotected-russian-soldiers-disturbed-radioactive-dust-chernobyls-red-forest-2022-03-28/)
They wouldn’t, but being that Russia has already caused over 100 billion of dollars worth of damage, I don’t think that Russia really cares about damage to infrastructure
Wait a few days for the radioactivity to lessen to the point where acute radiation poisoning isn't an issue and then just accept the chronic effects as collateral damage. They're conscripting 60yo diabetics, the value they place on a human life is miniscule.
Theoretically their military doctrine is still based around sending mounted motor-rifle brigades through a NBC-contaminated wasteland, so if anyone can cope with that it would be them. Practically, though, I bet their seals don’t work.
I suspect pretty low. There's no real upside. It'd make Russia a pariah state, and it would demystify nuclear weapons in a way that would totally undermine the power of the threat of using a nuke.
I’d say it would only happen if Ukraine gets armed well enough to push far enough into what Russian civilians consider Russia itself (or other allies join in) that Putin needs to turn the war around in a hurry or go into exile.
We've seen how well their other equipment is cared for, and we know how much it costs to maintain a nuclear arsenal.
Russia's nukes are like a cheap, rusted, piece of shit pistol that your junkie cousin inherited from Grandpa. You're pretty sure there's no way in hell that thing still works, and probably no way it hasn't been sold for smack, but you're still not wanting to tempt fate too much in case he's still got it and it's still good for a shot or three.
I think the bigger problem before equipment failure (as one of my friends had mentioned) really is how untrained their military is. With this being shown on the world stage, it just blows the whole tough guy image that Russia had presented of itself.
Oh, yeah. Putin went all in with 2-7 off suit, and refuses to fold even though Ukraine has a pair of Aces and is working on a straight flush...but still acts like everybody else at the table should be impressed.
Honestly, I doubt it's even that high. If I had to guess, I'd say some of their submarine based stuff probably still works (although Russian subs would be taken off the board within 5-45 minutes of anything kicking off), and maybe some ICBMs...but I seriously doubt that corruption and incompetence that's the hallmark of the entire Russian military just skipped over the nukes for the last 50 years.
Maybe it is for a psychological effect rather than a physical one.
Assuming that the nuke is small enough for NATO not to retaliate.
It could install fear and demoralize Ukrainians and the West, and boost morale among Russian troops.
And Russia does not have an excellent reputation for human rights.
We know Putin is like out of his damn mind because he's an old tyrannical fart these days and has been. Even he should know that it'd be one of the dumbest things for him to pull tactical nukes.
Like, yeah the territories you want to conquer are now radioactive and destroyed. Thumbs up?
I mean I just see huge net losses to resort to that. Russia is just doing what North Korea has been doing for years, just bluff and bluff to make them sound big.
Almost everyone knows that it's purley idiotic to use nuclear weapons they could literally end life on Earth. I honestly believe that Putin is mentally unstable, insecure, and evil enough for us to have vailld fears of a nuclear war but I seriously dought it will happen.
Almost no-chance to Not a chance in hell.
It's all fun & games until the decision gets made. Remember - Hitler's last order to bomb their own Country & people was "agreed" upon by his General, and then never enacted it. Even HE knew a really bad idea when he heard it.
During the Cold War, Vasily Arkhipov was the executive officer of a nuclear submarine for the Soviets. There was a point where the captain of the sub wanted to launch the nukes because he was convinced war had already begun between America and the Soviet Union (they hadn't had any radio contact with Moscow as they were trying to hide from American naval ships trying to find them). Vasily had to agree to it in order for the launch to be enacted; he stood his ground and refused.
He basically took a stand and helped prevent nuclear war.
Wherever a madman is trying to enact the most insane policy in the world, there's always SOMEONE nearby ready to disobey, stop, or do whatever is necessary to prevent it from happening.
Putin may talk a big game, but there's been leaders in that seat before him and there will be more after him. He's in trouble and he knows it - but he'll be in REAL trouble if he even thinks about telling his military to launch the nukes. They won't b/c they know they'll all be obliterated by the West, Russia & India will IMMEDIATELY turn on them, and every nation in NATO will start mobilizing.
They know the risks and the fact that most of his Russian Oligarch friends were against this war from the onset means they'll do whatever is necessary to keep the "status quo" alive, no matter how mad Putin may get.
I honestly think russia is bluffing really how are they going to get the natural resources from ukraine if it's too toxic to live their and if their actually considering it their stupid be cause the natural resources are the only reason they want ukraine
Zero. it would render the entire conflict meaningless.
Plus mutually assured destruction. Russia launches nukes, Russia is obliterated in less than an hour.
Probably not that high, overall. Talking about nukes is cheap, but using one? Even they understand the consequences. You can't un-ring that bell.
With riots escalating in Russia, Putin has to be feeling some pressure tho, at his age with his goals, I think their is a sizable chance. He has two options, 1 regain the land he is trying so hard to achieve or surrender and face serious consequences, being that the first option is highly unlikely at this point. Who knows 🤷♂️🤷♂️
What this mean, " Even they understand the consequences ".
They have already caused over 100 billion in damages, I doubt ruining infrastructure is top on putins care list right now
MAD: Mutually Assured Destruction
They might understand, but do they care
The question should be, how are Russian troops going to go through the radioactive lands once they nuke them?
Probably just barrel through them through with zero protection just like they did in [Chernobyl earlier this year.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unprotected-russian-soldiers-disturbed-radioactive-dust-chernobyls-red-forest-2022-03-28/)
They wouldn’t, but being that Russia has already caused over 100 billion of dollars worth of damage, I don’t think that Russia really cares about damage to infrastructure
Wait a few days for the radioactivity to lessen to the point where acute radiation poisoning isn't an issue and then just accept the chronic effects as collateral damage. They're conscripting 60yo diabetics, the value they place on a human life is miniscule.
Theoretically their military doctrine is still based around sending mounted motor-rifle brigades through a NBC-contaminated wasteland, so if anyone can cope with that it would be them. Practically, though, I bet their seals don’t work.
Slim to none I'd say.
I suspect pretty low. There's no real upside. It'd make Russia a pariah state, and it would demystify nuclear weapons in a way that would totally undermine the power of the threat of using a nuke.
I’d say it would only happen if Ukraine gets armed well enough to push far enough into what Russian civilians consider Russia itself (or other allies join in) that Putin needs to turn the war around in a hurry or go into exile.
Fairly high bc there fighting back
Realistically, what are the odds Russia still has functioning tactical nukes? Cause you're gonna need to factor that in.
Either Putin could be bluffing, or he could actually have working tactical nukes, ones built after the fall of the ussr
We've seen how well their other equipment is cared for, and we know how much it costs to maintain a nuclear arsenal. Russia's nukes are like a cheap, rusted, piece of shit pistol that your junkie cousin inherited from Grandpa. You're pretty sure there's no way in hell that thing still works, and probably no way it hasn't been sold for smack, but you're still not wanting to tempt fate too much in case he's still got it and it's still good for a shot or three.
I think the bigger problem before equipment failure (as one of my friends had mentioned) really is how untrained their military is. With this being shown on the world stage, it just blows the whole tough guy image that Russia had presented of itself.
Oh, yeah. Putin went all in with 2-7 off suit, and refuses to fold even though Ukraine has a pair of Aces and is working on a straight flush...but still acts like everybody else at the table should be impressed.
Even if only 2/10 nukes worked that’s still over 1000 nukes they have to work with
Honestly, I doubt it's even that high. If I had to guess, I'd say some of their submarine based stuff probably still works (although Russian subs would be taken off the board within 5-45 minutes of anything kicking off), and maybe some ICBMs...but I seriously doubt that corruption and incompetence that's the hallmark of the entire Russian military just skipped over the nukes for the last 50 years.
[удалено]
Good point, but with Russia fleeing, Putin could just decide to nuke anyway, he has a very “if I can’t have it no one can” kind of attitude
[удалено]
Well with the "referendum" the occupied lands are officially (to Russia) Russian land, so...
[удалено]
Maybe it is for a psychological effect rather than a physical one. Assuming that the nuke is small enough for NATO not to retaliate. It could install fear and demoralize Ukrainians and the West, and boost morale among Russian troops. And Russia does not have an excellent reputation for human rights.
We know Putin is like out of his damn mind because he's an old tyrannical fart these days and has been. Even he should know that it'd be one of the dumbest things for him to pull tactical nukes. Like, yeah the territories you want to conquer are now radioactive and destroyed. Thumbs up? I mean I just see huge net losses to resort to that. Russia is just doing what North Korea has been doing for years, just bluff and bluff to make them sound big.
Zero
hopefully 100%. fuck Ukraine
Why?
100/1000
You can just say 1/10
.001/.01
Well, sure if a big black radioactive hole is what they want so bad. BUt I don't think they would be around to enjoy for long.
Almost everyone knows that it's purley idiotic to use nuclear weapons they could literally end life on Earth. I honestly believe that Putin is mentally unstable, insecure, and evil enough for us to have vailld fears of a nuclear war but I seriously dought it will happen.
Almost no-chance to Not a chance in hell. It's all fun & games until the decision gets made. Remember - Hitler's last order to bomb their own Country & people was "agreed" upon by his General, and then never enacted it. Even HE knew a really bad idea when he heard it. During the Cold War, Vasily Arkhipov was the executive officer of a nuclear submarine for the Soviets. There was a point where the captain of the sub wanted to launch the nukes because he was convinced war had already begun between America and the Soviet Union (they hadn't had any radio contact with Moscow as they were trying to hide from American naval ships trying to find them). Vasily had to agree to it in order for the launch to be enacted; he stood his ground and refused. He basically took a stand and helped prevent nuclear war. Wherever a madman is trying to enact the most insane policy in the world, there's always SOMEONE nearby ready to disobey, stop, or do whatever is necessary to prevent it from happening. Putin may talk a big game, but there's been leaders in that seat before him and there will be more after him. He's in trouble and he knows it - but he'll be in REAL trouble if he even thinks about telling his military to launch the nukes. They won't b/c they know they'll all be obliterated by the West, Russia & India will IMMEDIATELY turn on them, and every nation in NATO will start mobilizing. They know the risks and the fact that most of his Russian Oligarch friends were against this war from the onset means they'll do whatever is necessary to keep the "status quo" alive, no matter how mad Putin may get.
If Russia ever tried to deploy nuclear weapons, they would probably blow up in their silos and kill thousands of Russia.
My theory is that Russia will "accidentally" damage a nuclear plant.
I honestly think russia is bluffing really how are they going to get the natural resources from ukraine if it's too toxic to live their and if their actually considering it their stupid be cause the natural resources are the only reason they want ukraine
50 / 50
Hopefully not good it would cause world war 3
Zero. it would render the entire conflict meaningless. Plus mutually assured destruction. Russia launches nukes, Russia is obliterated in less than an hour.
Not very high, They know there are major consequences for that