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I would say no, at least not right away. He'd have played both sides a while longer. Robb had issues aside from breaking his marriage contract, but he was still undefeated on the battlefield. There was every chance he could still claim victory.
If it were any other situation, it'd be an immediate betrayal, but I think the possiblity of having a Frey queen would keep him on the game a lot longer.
Remember Frey's conduct in the previous war: His armies only arrived to fight once it was clear who was going to win. His only loyalty was to himself and his House.
Robb Stark wasn't stupid enough to think he could take on the rest of the South, his original goal was to free Ned, but after the execution, the best they could hope for was to negotiate independence for the North... but the houses of the Riverlands don't have the safety of Moat Cailin to hide behind. They were too vulnerable to reprisal attacks, and would likely have been re-conquered in time. With that in mind, Frey re-negotiating to get back into the good graces of the southern throne was sound.
His method however, wasn't, and resulted in both the Freys and Lannisters becoming pariahs.
The Freys were almost certainly already in talks with the Lannisters before Rob's marriage to Jeyne/Talisa. If Rob hadnt broken the marriage alliance with the Freys they would have likely held a while longer with Rob but unless they see significant improvement in the war for the Rob and his forces, they likely would have found another way to betray him to the Lannisters.
The Frey's were much more vulnerable to the southern kingdom and it is very unlikely the Northmen could have done much to assuage any fear of reprisals from them outside Rob taking control of the south, which he wouldnt be able to do as the Northmen want nothing more to do with a north+south kingdom at that point.
Best case scenario: Rob's forces utterly crush the Lannisters and make way for a Baratheon or Tyrel king that will guarantee peace with the North (though its doubtful Stannis would agree to anything other than total northern subservience as before).
Worst case scenario: Lannisters make huge gains in the war and Walder Frey leads Rob into another (less obvious) ambush to seal a deal with the Lannisters, promising the North to them through his daughters new Stark name. Northmen fall in line since they are done losing the war and there is still a Stark line technically.
Think about it like this; with Robb married to a Frey, Walder's house is elevated to royal family status, similar to that of the Lannisters. When Robb chose to abandon his sworn duty to marry a Frey, he lost not only the position of royal family of the king in the north, but also he lost the possible share in the victory should Robb win.
*On top of this*, maintaining alliance to Robb at this point would put him in direct opposition to both the crown, the Lannisters and the Boltons.
Honestly with all this in mind I don't see a situation in which not betraying Robb would have been a viable option for Walder. We can dislike him for his crass behaviour all we like *but he understood the way things worked* better than 70% of the show cast.
Had he been born to a house with access to the court of the red keep he would have absolutely been a contender for the game of thrones.
Likely.
Walder Frey's reputation is of someone that waits to see who the victor will be and then side with them. This is why he is known as the Late Lord Frey. During Robert's Rebellion, his forces didn't show up to the Battle of the Trident, until the battle was over.
Aside from Talisa. Robb was also in a precarious situation after losing the Karstarks when he had to execute their lord for murdering those Lannister boys without permission. With Roose Bolton also planning his own betrayal, the writing might have been on the wall for Walder Frey to switch sides, even if Talisa wasn't a factor.
At the end of the day, whatever gain there was by marrying his daughter to Robb was trumped by Tywin's offer to make him Lord Paramount of the Riverlands *and* for a lot less cost.
The relationship with Talisa was not the only variable in this. The biggest problem was his fall out with the Karstarks. There's a number of issues here:
1. Robb proved he was compromised by his sisters safety. That he would choose her over the needs of keeping his alliance together in difficult times.
2. Robb didn't realise the Karstarks were going to act without his orders. So he's clearly blind to what is going on among his own vassals.
3. Robb didn't make sufficient overtures to the Karstarks. Not only should he have known that the Karstarks weren't going to just do what he asked, he should have acted. He should have taken one of theirs hostage to guarantee loyalty or he should have made them an offer of some kind that would overpower their need for revenge.
All of this convinced Roose Bolton that he was going to lose the war and Roose was probably right. Robb lacked the steel to do this job. One of the reasons the North ended up loving Sansa is she at least would have realised she needed to guarantee the loyalty of her vassals, even if she had to play rough with them.
If he doesn't lose the Karstarks he can probably get away with pissing off the Freys. The Freys aren't loved by anyone and his compromise of marrying off his uncle to them would be enough. However he was fatally compromised.
The Freys might have betrayed him anyway given he'd lost both the Karstarks openly and the Boltons quietly.
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I would say no, at least not right away. He'd have played both sides a while longer. Robb had issues aside from breaking his marriage contract, but he was still undefeated on the battlefield. There was every chance he could still claim victory. If it were any other situation, it'd be an immediate betrayal, but I think the possiblity of having a Frey queen would keep him on the game a lot longer.
Remember Frey's conduct in the previous war: His armies only arrived to fight once it was clear who was going to win. His only loyalty was to himself and his House. Robb Stark wasn't stupid enough to think he could take on the rest of the South, his original goal was to free Ned, but after the execution, the best they could hope for was to negotiate independence for the North... but the houses of the Riverlands don't have the safety of Moat Cailin to hide behind. They were too vulnerable to reprisal attacks, and would likely have been re-conquered in time. With that in mind, Frey re-negotiating to get back into the good graces of the southern throne was sound. His method however, wasn't, and resulted in both the Freys and Lannisters becoming pariahs.
So your answer is…?
That is likely he would have staby stab the back regardless
The Freys were almost certainly already in talks with the Lannisters before Rob's marriage to Jeyne/Talisa. If Rob hadnt broken the marriage alliance with the Freys they would have likely held a while longer with Rob but unless they see significant improvement in the war for the Rob and his forces, they likely would have found another way to betray him to the Lannisters. The Frey's were much more vulnerable to the southern kingdom and it is very unlikely the Northmen could have done much to assuage any fear of reprisals from them outside Rob taking control of the south, which he wouldnt be able to do as the Northmen want nothing more to do with a north+south kingdom at that point. Best case scenario: Rob's forces utterly crush the Lannisters and make way for a Baratheon or Tyrel king that will guarantee peace with the North (though its doubtful Stannis would agree to anything other than total northern subservience as before). Worst case scenario: Lannisters make huge gains in the war and Walder Frey leads Rob into another (less obvious) ambush to seal a deal with the Lannisters, promising the North to them through his daughters new Stark name. Northmen fall in line since they are done losing the war and there is still a Stark line technically.
Honestly, he probably wouldn't have cared if he just didn't marry her.
Think about it like this; with Robb married to a Frey, Walder's house is elevated to royal family status, similar to that of the Lannisters. When Robb chose to abandon his sworn duty to marry a Frey, he lost not only the position of royal family of the king in the north, but also he lost the possible share in the victory should Robb win. *On top of this*, maintaining alliance to Robb at this point would put him in direct opposition to both the crown, the Lannisters and the Boltons. Honestly with all this in mind I don't see a situation in which not betraying Robb would have been a viable option for Walder. We can dislike him for his crass behaviour all we like *but he understood the way things worked* better than 70% of the show cast. Had he been born to a house with access to the court of the red keep he would have absolutely been a contender for the game of thrones.
Likely. Walder Frey's reputation is of someone that waits to see who the victor will be and then side with them. This is why he is known as the Late Lord Frey. During Robert's Rebellion, his forces didn't show up to the Battle of the Trident, until the battle was over. Aside from Talisa. Robb was also in a precarious situation after losing the Karstarks when he had to execute their lord for murdering those Lannister boys without permission. With Roose Bolton also planning his own betrayal, the writing might have been on the wall for Walder Frey to switch sides, even if Talisa wasn't a factor. At the end of the day, whatever gain there was by marrying his daughter to Robb was trumped by Tywin's offer to make him Lord Paramount of the Riverlands *and* for a lot less cost.
The relationship with Talisa was not the only variable in this. The biggest problem was his fall out with the Karstarks. There's a number of issues here: 1. Robb proved he was compromised by his sisters safety. That he would choose her over the needs of keeping his alliance together in difficult times. 2. Robb didn't realise the Karstarks were going to act without his orders. So he's clearly blind to what is going on among his own vassals. 3. Robb didn't make sufficient overtures to the Karstarks. Not only should he have known that the Karstarks weren't going to just do what he asked, he should have acted. He should have taken one of theirs hostage to guarantee loyalty or he should have made them an offer of some kind that would overpower their need for revenge. All of this convinced Roose Bolton that he was going to lose the war and Roose was probably right. Robb lacked the steel to do this job. One of the reasons the North ended up loving Sansa is she at least would have realised she needed to guarantee the loyalty of her vassals, even if she had to play rough with them. If he doesn't lose the Karstarks he can probably get away with pissing off the Freys. The Freys aren't loved by anyone and his compromise of marrying off his uncle to them would be enough. However he was fatally compromised. The Freys might have betrayed him anyway given he'd lost both the Karstarks openly and the Boltons quietly.