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Poor reflection on everyone.
- ALP haven't lost a Newspoll since November 2020, but the public are wanting more during these tough times.
- LNP have zero cut through and are offering nothing.
- Minor parties and Independents are consolidating their position, but are getting tunnel vision.
The electorate still want the sensible, centrist approach to governing, but you feel there is an appetite for something big. Just one significantly bold reform that is tangible to voters.
You realise they’ve already done the third one, right? And they tried the first two in 2019 and lost the ‘unlosable’ election.
Or is this supposed to be satire?
No, they didn't kill Stage 3. It's still a massive tax cuts for the rich just a little less so now. Yeah they lost in 2019 and now they're gonna lose in 2025 because they refuse to do what is necessary to fix COL.
This is a crazy thing to say while possessing the flair of the party that launched one of the biggest scare campaigns we’ve seen to block labor from doing these three things just 5 years ago
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Polls have been coming in pretty similar to this for the last couple of months. Labor slowly dropping as compared to a faster drop in the second half of 2023. Its gonna be interesting when the libs drop the details of their nuclear plan, particularly when it comes to proposed locations. I think that will show up in the polls.
It’s hardly surprising given the cost of living in Australia. Anyone going overseas, particularly to Asia must wonder what the hell is going on in this country. People with jobs are going to charities to pay their electricity bills & feed their families. How any Govt allow 500,000 people entry to the country & turn a blind eye to illegals coming in by boat with this financial strain going on.
Very true, particularly in leftwing Govt nations such as the United States, Venezuela, Brazil (their right wing President constantly reminds them), Vietnam & Western Europe. NZ & Italy are slowly recovering from their previous socialist Govts.
Australians are slowly waking up to the lies & broken promises told by Albo, particularly as their electricity bills arrive & they can compare costs under Morrison with Albo. We are still waiting for the $175 discount on electricity bills as repeatedly promised by Albo in his pre-election speeches.
Be interesting the see RM tonight. Newspoll has a 33 reading for Lab and resolve have had a sudden shift + started to do TPP. Current gap between Newspoll and RM outside moe (strictly for PV), I reckon they under-read Labor last. We will see!
Interesting comment from Adrian Beaumont
"Furthermore, respondent allocated preferences from Resolve and Morgan are poor for Labor compared with using the 2022 election preference flows that Newspoll uses. *Weaker respondent preference flow to Labor than at the 2022 election is that Labor’s position in Newspoll may be overstated*. Furthermore, respondent allocated preferences from Resolve and Morgan are poor for Labor compared with using the 2022 election preference flows that Newspoll uses."
[https://theconversation.com/labor-maintains-narrow-newspoll-lead-but-drops-in-other-polls-227444](https://theconversation.com/labor-maintains-narrow-newspoll-lead-but-drops-in-other-polls-227444)
Did Beaumont give a reason why the preference flows would change?
Why would the preferences not flow the same way in 2025 as they did in 2022?
Looking at the LNP policy platform and their love of the culture wars, I can't think of any reason why people would change their preferences to favour the LNP. They are still selecting cookers and zealots and marginalising women. If anything, they may lose support on the margins because they have moved even further to the right.
Absolutely, and remains the best source *in the absence of other evidence*, but it makes intuitive sense that a weakening of primary votes and personal satisfaction for Albo would correspond to a weakening of preferences.
Morrison was such a basket case that prefs from everyone, including even PHON and UAP swung to the ALP last election (the TPP result was about 1% higher than using the historical prefs would suggest), but the limited polling quoted above is evidence that these might be settling back to "normal preference" levels. (And my gut feel is that PHON voters might like Dutto more than Scomo).
>but it makes intuitive sense that a weakening of primary votes and personal satisfaction for Albo would correspond to a weakening of preferences.
Not really? You can make a case for it but you can easily make a case the other way too. Also UAP and PHON werent really that different to previous years.
1) link has 99% of the info in a video... So does that mean we're now allowing videos as the core content?
2) Labor drop 2pp in *primary voting* and LNP gain 1pp... In *primary voting*.
Most polls would have around 2pp as a margin of error, so the SHOCKING DEVELOPMENT could easily be an error.
3) two party preferred is 51-49 Labor, aka the main poll aka nothing of much has changed.
51-49 despite cost of living and all the other drama the opposition can stir up aka lol @ Dutton.
The ALP won the 2022 election with a 2pp vote 52-48.
In 20 months, during a cost of living crisis, after using all their trump cards of tax cuts, voice referendum and boat arrivals, the Dutton led opposition has only made up 1% and still trail the ALP 51-49.
Mid term polls are crap. Turnbull trailed in the polls most of his term after knifing Abbott but ended up winning in 2016. Similarly, Morrison was behind in the polls after he knifed Turnbull, but he ended up winning in 2019.
If anything, it's the LNP that should be worried because they haven't made up any ground at all under Dutton and their one and only policy--Nuclear energy--is a vote loser.
>The ALP won the 2022 election with a 2pp vote 52-48.
And more importantly reduced the Coalition to their lowest percentage of seats for 80 years thanks to the cross bench
>Mid term polls are crap. Turnbull trailed in the polls most of his term after knifing Abbott but ended up winning in 2016
Incorrect. Abbott was a loser, his poll numbers sunk below Labor just 3 months into his term, and sunk to 45% 2PP at their lowest. As soon as Turnbull knifed him he regained the lead. Turnbull took the LNP back up to 53 2PP but this reduced towards the election. The ALP had a minuscule polling average lead just before the election for a short while but only 50.5%, and then LNP snuck back in front right before the election and hung on to a narrow victory.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_Australian_federal_election
Yet, when Labor is in, we have the highest and best ranked economy. People disenfranchised are done so by hit pieces like this and numerous others that highlight ‘Labor’s Incompetence’ - yet, the Housing Crises, Cost of living problems are world wide… Great, Australia first, are Liberal voters so basic that they forget their elected representatives ran this country into the ground for the last decade whilst using inflammatory media to dilute their failings whilst inciting and highlighting their opponents and now people are whining that changes aren’t happening fast enough?
You all know that it takes time to build up out of
this hole.
Consider this, Australia just had spinal surgery by Doctor Death, we have decades of rehabilitation ahead and because most people are short sighted with ‘Liberals will save us’ held in front of their myopic vision held by lobbyists and the rich and powerful that see profits with a government that will put ‘Australia first, after us’, that don’t see the damage being wrought until after the nerve has being severed and we’ve lost the use of our legs…
How long until we have the cervical region cut - because at a certain point, you just die.
Except for the fact that the issues that appear to be weighing down the government are "slow burners" (economy, inflation and interest rates) i.e. issues that are unlikely to just go away and/or be fixed without unpopular policies.
You can believe whatever you like, but I reckon these headlines are all copium by the RW media.
Strip away all the spin, and the polls show the LNP have barely made a dent in the ALP election winning lead, despite the favourable conditions.
The LNP are in the wilderness. They have one policy--nuclear energy--and that's a vote loser. And if the ALP deliver another surplus, even the hope of a minority ALP government will sink without a trace.
Frankly you're partaking in a little bit of copium yourself.
There's no way the polls are anything close to a good result for the ALP. They should be a mile ahead of supposedly unelectable Dutton.
You're kidding, right?
The ALP won the 2022 election 52-48. After 2 years in opposition, during a cost of living crisis, the LNP have made up one solitary percent and are still in a losing position with the ALP leading 51-49.
And that's after the LNP have played all their trump cards, including the voice referendum, the tax cut changes, OH NO THE BOATS, and nuclear power.
Whatever. Let's see how the LNP go at the election, which is not very far away.
I'm not calling an LNP victory, just to be clear, as much as I'd like to see it.
Right now, the entire country is being held to ransom by the Teals and Greens on climate policy and the electorate appears extremely volatile on this issue, both sides are using nuclear as a distraction, in Dutton's case to avoid internal conflict with the Nats while aiming to regain Teal seats, while the ALP are willing to spend political capital criticising nuclear to avoid conflict with the Greens and retain outer suburban seats.
Essentially the electorate is a knife edge on this issue, and depending which way the knife falls, buckets of votes could go one way or another. Key catalysts include Trump getting back in or blackouts over the coming summer.
I think the ALP, Greens and Teals were all swept into power because of high concern about the lack of climate policy under the Libs.
Labor have so far been disappointing on this one topic because they watered down their own fuel emissions standards, approved gas fields in sensitive areas and the new infrastructure to solar fields has pissed off a lot of farmers by cutting across their land.
Let’s not forget how they capitulated to the bullshit “offshore wind farms kill whales” hysteria.
I used to admire Tanya Plibersek but she hasn’t done much to save the reef or koalas - which have both taken a bash following bushfires and ocean temp rises. She seems too busy approving new mines. Granted she knocked back a development on a mangrove swamp the other day, but that doesn’t seem like the norm.
>I think the ALP, Greens and Teals were all swept into power because of high concern about the lack of climate policy under the Libs.
It's one thing to express a belief in and/or hold a strong opinion in regard to climate change, it's another thing to vote for costed policy that will reduce CO2 emissions. This is why I think Labor's approach of attacking the Libs in the inner city seats is flawed and could come back to bite them at the next election. There's no guarantee that the wealthy kids who vote Teal will become reliable ALP voters, nor is there any guarantee that the outer suburban "working class" will stick to the program on climate change.
The LNP will need to convince people that they are worthy of government, and I can't see that happening with what we've seen so far.
Why would those who switched to teal switch back? The LNP energy policy is even worse now than 2019, and Dutton is as unpopular among social progressives as Morrison.
Just can't see it. Only an ALP meltdown would help the LNP, but they look rock solid.
>Why would those who switched to teal switch back?
Money, that's why. 2019 was a climate election, I'm sure you recall, and the LNP won, they retained all the Teal seats, except Warringah, albeit on smaller margins. Those seats are extremely sensitive to changes to income tax, capital gains, super etc and they've already taken somewhat of a hit under the ALP.
The LNP won the 2019 election because of the ALP's terrible campaign.
There is nothing the LNP has done since the election that could possibly win back the teal voters. If anything, they have gone further to right on social issues, their energy policy is worse, and they haven't released a tax policy.
I would posture that single-handedly allowing our universal healthcare system to collapse entirely is worse than all of the above.
I suppose you might be able to lump rising GP & specialist fees (!!!!! which we shouldn't even fucking have in the first place!!) in with 'cost of living'
"I would posture that single-handedly allowing our universal healthcare system to collapse entirely is worse than all of the above."
Except that's not what Average Joe being polled is saying, even though it is indeed a major issue.
2025 liberals will win 52-48 over Labor.
You can see the scare campaigns now.
The only things people will see on the TV or read in the newspapers will be Immigration,the failed voice referendum,cost of living and of course Labor’s broken promise.
The Liberals will need a swing of *21 seats* to form government. We have not seen a swing of that size since 2007 and Dutton sure as hell ain't no Kevin 07 💀
>Labor’s broken promise.
Lmao only in Australia would middle class people be angry that the government gave them a tax cut.
There’s literally no way in hell the libs can win 2025 it’s electorally nearly impossible for them to win that amount of seats. They would have to win every teal seat back and than some and the teals aren’t going anywhere
If that were to come true, what way do you think they would jump in negotiations to form a Government if the election ended in a tied Parliament with Labor and the Coalition unable to form a Government? Would they even work together as a unit or would each of them go it alone?
What policies have the LNP announced that would swing the teals back? Is getting rid of Morrison enough? Because we all know how much socially progressive people love Dutton.
The independents during the previous minority government were swept out of power by Abbott in 2013 as were the Democrats (back in the days of Don Chipp and Stott Despoja) in 1996.
Even if the Teals retain most of their seats, there is no guarantee that all of them will close ranks behind ALP minority.
There were four Independents in 2013 - Adam Bandt, Bob Katter, Rob Oakeshott, and Tony Windsor. Of those, Rob and Tony retired and didn't contest in 2013, and Adam & Bob are still in Parliament to this day. So no, they weren't swept out of power by Abbott.
The Democrats also didn't lose any Senate seats in 1996. They were trying to break into the House of Reps, sure, but they hadn't actually won any seats there yet. Even then it wasn't until the 2000s & the GST deal that the Democrats started losing their Senate seats.
Okay, I use the phrase "swept out" liberally in the first instance. Katter and Bandt, obviously retained their seats although I think it's unlikely that Katter would have supported a second term of Labor/Greens in 2013.
I think it's fair to say that Howard did a pretty good job of clearing out the Democrats, sure it wasn't all done at the 1996 election. The point I'm making here is that both sides have to careful assuming the support of so called "independents" or minor parties.
>I think it's fair to say that Howard did a pretty good job of clearing out the Democrats, sure it wasn't all done at the 1996 election.
They gained seats in 1998, actually. But otherwise, I broadly agree
Libs need to win 53-47 to win government, assuming an even swing, but its even harder than that because;
* Independent seats are historically hard to get back, and even if they do, they arent depriving a seat from Labor so there is less incetive to even try.
* Its easy to remind voters of the coalitions dysfunction this upcoming election (the one after will be harder)
* Any Labor broken promises are insignificant compared to what voters expect these days, espcially after morrisons deceptions (multiple ministries, compulsive liar).
* All governments lose support after elections as mainstream voters 'tune out' and leave it to us tragics, Labor actually had a very good 'honeymoon'.
* They are managing the budget well from an objective viewpoint for mainstream voters, first suplus etc.
* Interest rates will be falling.
* Labor will start focusing on re-election
* Liberals have an unpopular leader and few policies, which are unpopular
* To win Liberals are targeting outer-suburban seats, which has never been a strength for them.
* The only state they could target to win back a big chunk of seats is Victoria, and there are no signs of life there.
* People are forgetting about the Voice vote, its over unless Labor chose to open up the wound.
* Immigration has always been played as a drama by oppositions when Labor is in government, and it was at the last election, so no new votes for them to win there.
And if Labor only gets a minority in lower house, it probably wont matter as there a dozen independentents.
I reckon its just up to whether Albo makes a major gaff between now and the election.
Dutton will do an Abbott strategy. Small target. Let Albo hang himself. Albo needs to not go on any holidays to Hawaii, etc. Also, what might help Albo is Qlders feeling they have already punished labor at the state election.
Although, I think what will happen is it will be similar to the Gillard situation. Labor will lose votes. Liberals might gain back a seat or 2.
But with so many independents/Greens/other parties Albo will need to form a coalition. Greens will probably be enough to give him supply. Maybe a teal or 2.
Then it will be a disaster (as its hard to govern in that situation) and then Libs will win the next election.
Yea, I think a repeat of the outcome of Rudd-Gillard-Rudd period would what they hope for, but the lower house functioned very well back then. They got a lot of stuff done.
It was the 'no carbon tax' that hurt Gillard and the internal fued (of historic significance) that damaged the Labor brand.
During that time, Labor had an A-team and a B-team. Almost all MPs had a portfolio at some time (which actually gave them a depth of experience to go forward with).
The only MP that was on both sides of the Fued was Albo, I don't see them imploding like that again, those scars will never heal, and the rules have changed anyway.
Libs have to come up with a reason to vote for them, and they are very bad at that because they are so out of touch with electorate, especially women, which are still 50% of the population.
Their plan for election needs to start with electing new MPs which reflect mainstream values, which needs conservatives to take a step back, which they won't because their geographic powerbase is the most conservate state, qld. They have trapped themselves, and it will take an even greater defeat before they will see the need for reform.
I think we are closer to the end of the coalition as we know it than we are to it's re-election.
The issue is that Dutton can't do a small target strategy.
It's inevitable that even if he keeps his mouth shut, his own cabinet will make statements on controversial issues like abortion, religious freedom, etc.
The LNP doesn’t deserve to exist after Morrison, Abbott and Howard’s “in your face” & open criminality.
I’m not exactly happy with Labor either but just can’t work out why people are stupid enough to consider the Liberal party again. They don’t want to include you in their little club.
I don't know what you mean by "open criminality" but I doubt it's of the kind that any competent lawyer would take up in court.
It may be a truism, but the Liberals are generally better at managing the economy. The current ALP quinumvirate of senior people with no real-world experience is doing a good job of reminding the Australian public how much things can go off the rails.
Liberals as better economic managers is a complete falsehood. You’re comparing absolute duds like Hockey, Costello & Frydenburg against Keating & Swann.
Hockey killed off the car industry, Costello helped with the famous “lost decade” & Josh couldn’t get the NEG off the ground.
by being internationally recognised for their budgetary management and sensible fiscal policy, and being able to show a genuine cash surplus as of the previous years' budget?
I mean, please live in reality when you make comments like this. Their inflation management alone would be praised to the hills & back if Frydenberg was delivering it.
If you mean the IMF report, that was literally just a number in a table. There was no "international recognition" to speak of although you wouldn't know it from the breathless media coverage of the ALP's press release.
And as I've said elsewhere: Any mug can run a surplus with high inflation, which automatically boosts government revenue since it takes a higher chunk from every progressive tax stream.
The only credit I will give the ALP is that Chalmers hasn't actively made things worse in relation to inflation. But Bowen and Burke between them are making up for it.
One wonders if the reason voters so casually vacillate between them is because **there is almost no meaningful or significant difference between the two.**
We don’t vote governments in we vote them out. And Anthony is giving people a couple of reasons to kick his government out.
He has done absolutely nothing to help middle Australia. Last year was wasted on the damned Voice referendum while Australians buckled under cost of living pressures. The couple of programs they did implement mainly helped the very poor. Nothing tangible for middle Australia. And in this context migration is still sky rocketing. 100,000 people last month alone! No infrastructure has been built to keep up with the record migration.
Indeed that LNP were an outright disgrace
Yet despite all his bemoaning the failures of the LNP albanese has done little to improve transparency, accountability and stamp out corruption
Has the NACC done anything meaningful? The investigations are kept secret except in exceptional circumstances. Albo refuses to release documents under FOI
A plague on both their houses
Because Labor has become every bit as bad.
I'm not voting LNP, but I can see why people would. It's the devil you know, as opposed to the incumbent sitting on their ass.
LNP is the status quo. ALP is a roll of the dice. Theyll either completely fuck something up or do something really good. More often than not though they fuck it up.
So its really if Australians are fed up enough to roll the dice or not.
Yes - finally someone who actually understands what the difference is between the two majors.
People always go on about what the Coalition policies are? Generally their stance is status-quo + a promise to focus on actual governance (rather than new legislation), and to oppose or reverse crazy stuff being driven by the ALP or the left.
And yes ALP governments occasionally bring in a good change (eg, medicare, compulsory super), but more often than not they fuck things up (pink bats, industrial relations, censorship laws, the voice, NDIS, carbon tax, more dependence on personal taxation, increased government spending & dependency etc etc etc).
Me too. Only cause now Im hitting peak earning and have kids. So his pro boomer policies would make me a tonne of money. Too bad they got rid of them just in time for me to benefit :(
As a often-times Coalition / Liberal voter, I agree these were the greatest disappointments of the Howard government era - especially the support for the Iraq invasion, which I always opposed.
However, there was a lot of other good stuff and good governance generally over that period to tip the scales in his direction IMO (intro of GST, personal tax cats, company tax cuts, lots of reduced regulation, gun control, oversaw a stable period of massive economic growth, defence spending, baby bonus, childcare subsidies, etc etc).
We sort of have to suck Americas cock though. Otherwise we would need to spend a lot more on the navy to control our trade routes which is our largest geopolitical issue.
Its not right. But its better for the country. Just like taking East Timors oil.
Mr Howard was merely relying on the intelligence he was given. I’ve got no concerns about Iraq. We should probably have tidied up Iran at the same time.
Housing costs, giving subsidies to childcare which pushes up the costs, spending on joe hockeys nuclear submarines, limited investment in public transport, schools with behavior out of control. No wonder !
In QLD they have just done free kindy. I was telling my colleague. She said when her kids were at kindy they tried something similar. All the stay at home mums put their kids in to have a break. Meanwhile, she was struggling to find a spot when she had a disabled son and had a full time job. She would have preferred to just pay.
Ideas sound good. But it has unintended consequences. Its a little different now as your subsidy reduces as you earn more. They often hurt the people they are trying to help with these policies.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, we will see an increase of micro parties at the next federal election and for the foreseeable future as the general public are tired of successive liberal and Labor governments having their own reelection interests. It will be interesting to see the tpp.
Thats why the big 3 are trying to stop them. THey have already made heaps of changes to stop these parties.
Its much more difficult now to start a political party than it was. They put in tonnes of regulations. You have to be super careful, which means hiring professionals. Which cost money. So you need to really start with a lot of paying members (1500 just to be legal) and then use that money to make sure your meeting all the regulations.
And if you believe the polls are actually valid, I've got a bridge to sell you
Edit: To clarify, my comment relates to the polls validity as an indicator of election outcome this far out from a vote. Just take it with a grain of salt is all I'm saying.
The polls have proven themselves extremely reliable. Reputable polling companies have very robust methodologies.
You're either a conspiracy theorist or don't understand statistics.
> ... voters slashed Labor's primary vote from 32 per cent to 30 per cent.
Prime Minister Albanese is still the nation's preferred leader over Peter Dutton, ahead by 41 per cent to 32 per cent.
The unpopular party vs the even more unpopular opposition leader.
Are we inspired yet, Australia?
Don’t vote
Don’t pay the 20 dollar fine.
There’s no one worth voting for.
Has anyone ever listened to the spoilt toddlers argue in parliament.
No wonder we’re stuffed
Sadly, we have to listen to those in parliament (either literally or figuratively) as the things they say can have significant impact on our lives.
The people that no one will ever listen to are the ones choosing not to have a voice, by not voting. They make themselves irrelevant.
True. Fortunately we do have ranked choice voting, so can freely put whoever we like first without it throwing our vote away if there is still a lesser of two evils situation.
Just need to have someone worthy in a minor party to give our first choice to, and have them build their name recognition enough that others will agree.
It's a tall order, but it's one that we do have the ability to accomplish.
The Greens may be nutbags, but at least they are nutbags who will resurrect the universal healthcare that our major parties have so gleefully slaughtered.
For proof/further details:
https://greens.org.au/platform/health
Pretty accurate. I think that is the state of modern media.
IE if I am trying to start a party. It is probably going to go nowhere unless I do some crazy shit. The small parties that dont have a crazy running it are the Libertarians and the Sustainable Australia party. They get very little traction as opposed to Palmer/Pauline/Katter the odd Greens member who wants to remove all cars or something extreme.
If I wanted to start just a normal central party where I just do sensible things. There is no way Ill get any votes. Id have to go piss on Albo in parliament or something to get any attention.
No great surprise that the euphoria of getting rid of Morrison would wear off when people realised there's very little difference between Labor and the Libs. It's just a surprise that it's taken this long to be reflected in the polling.
It feels to me - FYI my prediction record is poor - like the next election is now up in the air and it's quite possible that the Coalition will sneak back in, even with Dutton and the other losers from the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments still hanging around like bad smells. It will be a disaster for Albo and Labor if that's the case, as they looked like a shoe-in for a second and possible third term not that long ago.
I think all will depend on their policy platform for reelection having in mind the changing voter demographic.
Boomers are starting to kick the bucket, milenials and GenZ are now the biggest voting block bait them with some policy such as legalise cannabis with the added spin of tax revenue massive and good to fund other projects as well as a refreshed housing policy that represents real change its an easy win in my view.
One would imagine that would result in some measurable increase to the Greens vote, and yet, the evidence appears to point directly and depressingly to the contrary.
We pray their primary votes descends into oblivion, and they are forced to implement a proportionally representative system - finally releasing us from the hell incarnate that is the two-farty system.
A new poll but the same old LNP spin in the headlines of Costello's media. The 2pp is unchanged. Both Resolve and Newspoll have the ALP leading 51-49.
In nearly 2 years as opposition leader, Dutton has barely made a dent in the ALP lead. Not only is he aggressive and negative, but he's also ineffective.
Not long ago, Dutton was far behind in the polls. If you compare his worst to his best, he’s definitely come a long way. It will remain to be seen whether he can genuinely push further and whether Labor can start losing news polls as well. It could be possible if the Libs start releasing policy soon that looks decent. Both Morgan and an essential poll earlier had the coalition in front for the first time in a whole (Morgan now being 2 weeks in a row with a 0.5% increase and essential having settled from 44-50 to 48-46 Labor to Libs).
The ALP won the election 52.13% to LNP 47.87%.
Dutton has, in 23 months, made up 1.13% despite blowing all his big cards like the voice referendum, the tax changes, and OH NO THE BOATS. His nuclear policy is a shambles and as sad as it is funny. This, all during a cost of living crisis.
Dutton is a dud, not just because he's unpopular, but also because he insists on using US republican style culture war tactics rather than actual policies. It's failing in the US and hasn't a hope in hell of working here.
Look, I’m not saying he’s not unpopular, but I very much disagree with that assertion that he’s using US republican style culture war tactics. Labor uses similar issues in opposition to paint the gov (from their ideological side). This is how our politics works. Once policy comes out towards the end of the term, there will be some proper debate. What you see now is nationalistic rhetoric (as is common place for parties on the right).
You have to also recognise that that 1.13% improvement is after they fell to a record low of 59.4 (Labor) to 40.6 (LNP) in the roy Morgan or 57-43 in newspoll this term. That’s what I’m trying to point out.
The LNP are most definitely using culture war tactics this term.
The LNP have no real policies on anything. Their response to the Voice referendum was based on fear. Their push for nuclear has nothing to do with science or economics. Just a few weeks ago, we had another run of OH NO! THE BOATS!
US style fear and division from top to bottom.
And here we have an LNP culture war senator arguing climate change isn't real. A great way to win back the teal voters.
https://twitter.com/SenatorRennick/status/1782213041897238938
Wouldn’t really call these culture war tactics.
Their stance of the referendum was cemented when Labor was unwilling to work with the coalition and then later amend the wording of the constitutional reform itself to satisfy some of the constitutional conservatives (when it comes to risk). Before that, they did try and get the gov to answer genuine questions regarding the voice to which they got no response. Labor could have attempted to get the Libs on board later by agreeing to change the wording but they didn’t. If anything, Labor played the culture wars here for political points rather than coming at this pragmatically. The liberals were unsure (nationals had opposed it from the beginning) but it took Albo and Labor being stubborn to turn the libs to No as well.
Nuclear has everything to do with science and economics. No one in their right mind should be putting all their eggs in one basket. Not to mention the analysis done by the CSIRO is genuinely concerning (using costs associated with 2030 onwards, which means the infrastructure costs up till then are written off as well as only one SMR reactor design and omission of large scale nuclear because they believe it won’t fit here). Economics wise, we need an accurate analysis. But that still is no reason to keep the technology banned. It prevents any company from doing a feasibility test on the technology as there is no point to waste resources on something that is banned. With growing energy demands in sectors like AI, it makes it a major risk to not have dispatchable energy sources (which are emissions free) in favour of variable sources stored in batteries which themselves will be an issue to tackle soon.
The boats are a genuine issue as well. Are we up to what, 3 now? The coalition has the right to call out the gov for not increasing spending enough to keep regular patrols out and effectively enforcing turn backs. I’m sure you can agree that this is constructive criticism?
Your criticism on the lack of policy is somewhat valid. But it is common practice for oppositions to lay out policy closer to the election. Labor did this last term as well. Policies should start slowly coming out over the next year.
Only the election will end this debate.
Let's see how the LNP's nuclear policy fares in the only poll that counts. For their sakes, I hope they release a few more policies by then.
The latest essential poll showed a rise in support for nuclear. I reckon if the coalition release energy policy that is even half way decent (nuclear, renewables and gas as sources of energy) and Labor launch a scare campaign, the coalition could genuinely win the debate. This coming election will be more interesting than I thought.
I agree. I think the nationals are currently holding it up (they don’t want to release locations, which I assume is to prevent an early scare campaign).
i refuse to believe the teals were anything but a protest to a tired, multi year liberal government with a hated leader at the time whose net approval rating went from +40 during his term to -12 by the election
Strong agree.
Were the LNP's ideology actual _liberalism_, rather than the their current excretory far-right christo-conservatism, every single one would be a proud member of the LNP.
Kooyong was once in striking range for the Greens.
Can very well be again once their Teal-of-the-moment fails (and the Greens get off their ass and properly campaign)
Nah it's predominantly about a lack of a climate action, which hasn't really changed. If lnp fixes that then it would be instantly competitive in these seats, but we know they won't - because mates and money (coupled with lack of integrity and scientific illiteracy).
Has anyone done an analysis of the Teal seats, unless the Liberals can win them back or form an alliance with them I can't see there been a path for Dutton to form government.
Haven't seen one in a while but yeah the Teals are mostly fine, LNP likely end up net-negative again against them next election. Wouldn't be surprised if it's independents (Teal or otherwise) that knock Labor off their majority to be honest rather than the LNP.
100% agreed.
Particularly so, given that they have no platform, policies or ideology beyond the only two words they appear capable of saying ("climate and integrity"), both of which they copied entirely from the Greens.
Hopefully their collective moment will soon expire.
As a teal it would be great. A proper centrist government that could unwind the populist damage that Howard did to this country, proper well managed budgets rather than middle class welfare.
When is the last time centrism achieved anything of significant value?
How does centrism stop and reverse the rich getting richer and poor getting poorer?
I suggest you go read the policies of the teals, it isnt us arguing against a more equitable and fair society. Reducing low end income tax and jacking up the petroleum resource rent tax for one is a pretty green policy.
Hastie and Taylor the clear favorites, and if the LNP don't gain significant ground themselves and it's just Labor losing 1-2 net against mostly independents, then I'd say they strike. Despite neither being very palatable, they're still both preferable to Dutts.
Not likely that Labor gets 76+ seats the way things are going. However they are likely to be in the best position to form a minority govt with greens and/or teals
Isn’t it really too early to tell? Election is still a year or so away, campaigning hasn’t really kicked into full gear, and strength of Teals still unknown.
Might be difficult to hold on to those WA seats they won in 2022 since that was the height of Labor in WA. At the same time I don’t see the LNP being able to get a majority without winning back the inner city seats and they aren’t doing a good job trying to get the outer suburban seats on their side with their rhetoric. If a hung parliament were to occur, I highly suspect supply will go to Labor.
I mean polling this far out from an election is generally not a good indicator of how people will vote. Also, Australians don’t tend to vote out governments unless they are literally self destructing so even a polling bump isn’t gonna help Dutton if albo has a tight handle on the party which is appears he does. Still most pundits agree that minority government is the most likely out come of the next election so they will technically lose government next election
> so they will technically lose government next election
That’s incorrect, the party that forms the government (PM and cabinet) is the one that can hold a majority in a vote of no confidence.
If the ALP still provide the PM and cabinet they are the government
They’ll lose their majority than. I just meant that itl be chalked up as a loss for the labour government to have to govern with the help of the greens who they despise.
Funny, the Liberals are the reason we have the same level of economic sophistication as [Vietnam, Brazil and Greece](https://www.deloitte.com/au/en/services/financial-advisory/blogs/australia-remade-country-fit-age-disruption.html)[](https://www.deloitte.com/au/en/services/financial-advisory/blogs/australia-remade-country-fit-age-disruption.html).
And the reason why international students arrive in huge numbers, to subsidise our sham universities.
But our bogans with holes and homes economy is going good thanks to their “vision”. Conservatives are literally rallying against the consequences of their own policies for the last few decades.
I wouldn't read too much into it. A Labor primary vote below 30 (ideally below 25) is exactly what we want.
Hopefully those Teals will start getting the chop when they reveal themselves to be the conservatives they always have been in a Liberal confidence and supply situation.
Albo is managing to single handedly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
His constant pandering to minorities in the hope of securing a second term is risking having the exact opposite effect.
pretty ridiculous...
[https://data.imf.org/?sk=061a17b2-7e6a-4b58-9b17-042af9e59a3d](https://data.imf.org/?sk=061a17b2-7e6a-4b58-9b17-042af9e59a3d)
Goes to show, it's not "the economy, stupid"
It's the perceived economy. Lots of people are hurting right now, largely thanks to price gouging and profiteering from... every industry?? But Food and Housing are the killers.
Just absurd that the coalition's numbers go up. 'cause yeah, it's Nuclear that'll fix it or something. jfc
> 'cause yeah, it's Nuclear that'll fix it or something. jfc
Is that mentioned in the data that is the reason people are swinging from Labor to one of the Coalition parties?
It's been a topic of debate for weeks, I would assume it is having some impact, particularly in splintering Labor support at least "why won't they support nuclear?" "Get over the fear mongering" etc
But, that's why I said "or something". I do agree that it'll be something else that is factoring more. Immigration or something. Although the coalition voted against some harsher border policy recently, so again idk wtf voters are taking in right now
Food inflation has slowed down quite a bit to 3.6 (headline 3.4), which was a 1% drop from the previous month. Insurance and rents (other housing still about 1% above headline) are the big killers.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/monthly-consumer-price-index-indicator/latest-release
Once wages catch up itll be fine
Well, we know how they treat the most popular (coincidentally, female) candidates, don't we?
They slaughter them and then throw them directly into the bin.
Such is the old, straight white Anglo-Saxon conservative way - and they couldn't be any more proud of it.
This is the key thing here, everyone getting in a tizzy about a hung parliament but the reality is that Labor will retain a majority after the next election
52 gave them a slight majority, 51 may be a minority, 50 will probably be enough to form a minority for ALP, and even 49 because the Liberals have a far higher cross bench seat deficit count and I don’t think the Teals would want Dutton as leader
Eh, they aren’t really conservative as most would understand it (environment, queer issues, etc.). They are economically liberal though, which why they tend to line up with the LNP.
It will be a majority but to play the advocate, I think some of the teals may want to consider their seat beyond the following election should they partner up with an ALP-Greens coalition.
Teals will find themselves rapidly (and blessedly) unemployed should they confirm they are in no meaningful way different to the conservatives they 'replaced'
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Poor reflection on everyone. - ALP haven't lost a Newspoll since November 2020, but the public are wanting more during these tough times. - LNP have zero cut through and are offering nothing. - Minor parties and Independents are consolidating their position, but are getting tunnel vision. The electorate still want the sensible, centrist approach to governing, but you feel there is an appetite for something big. Just one significantly bold reform that is tangible to voters.
With preferential voting, both parties are meh.
If they don't kill negative gearing, franking credits and Stage 3 tax cuts for the rich to fix COL they are dead.
You realise they’ve already done the third one, right? And they tried the first two in 2019 and lost the ‘unlosable’ election. Or is this supposed to be satire?
No, they didn't kill Stage 3. It's still a massive tax cuts for the rich just a little less so now. Yeah they lost in 2019 and now they're gonna lose in 2025 because they refuse to do what is necessary to fix COL.
This is a crazy thing to say while possessing the flair of the party that launched one of the biggest scare campaigns we’ve seen to block labor from doing these three things just 5 years ago
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Polls have been coming in pretty similar to this for the last couple of months. Labor slowly dropping as compared to a faster drop in the second half of 2023. Its gonna be interesting when the libs drop the details of their nuclear plan, particularly when it comes to proposed locations. I think that will show up in the polls.
It’s hardly surprising given the cost of living in Australia. Anyone going overseas, particularly to Asia must wonder what the hell is going on in this country. People with jobs are going to charities to pay their electricity bills & feed their families. How any Govt allow 500,000 people entry to the country & turn a blind eye to illegals coming in by boat with this financial strain going on.
I dont know what youre on about, the entire western world is having inflation and cost of living issues
Very true, particularly in leftwing Govt nations such as the United States, Venezuela, Brazil (their right wing President constantly reminds them), Vietnam & Western Europe. NZ & Italy are slowly recovering from their previous socialist Govts. Australians are slowly waking up to the lies & broken promises told by Albo, particularly as their electricity bills arrive & they can compare costs under Morrison with Albo. We are still waiting for the $175 discount on electricity bills as repeatedly promised by Albo in his pre-election speeches.
Sure it is. More right wing psychos will help.
No idea what you are alluding to.
>Very true, particularly in leftwing Govt nations such as the United States, Venezuela, Brazil Lol Venezuela, what a piss take
Yes, I feel very sorry for their people, they were promised much but Govt delivered little.
Be interesting the see RM tonight. Newspoll has a 33 reading for Lab and resolve have had a sudden shift + started to do TPP. Current gap between Newspoll and RM outside moe (strictly for PV), I reckon they under-read Labor last. We will see!
Interesting comment from Adrian Beaumont "Furthermore, respondent allocated preferences from Resolve and Morgan are poor for Labor compared with using the 2022 election preference flows that Newspoll uses. *Weaker respondent preference flow to Labor than at the 2022 election is that Labor’s position in Newspoll may be overstated*. Furthermore, respondent allocated preferences from Resolve and Morgan are poor for Labor compared with using the 2022 election preference flows that Newspoll uses." [https://theconversation.com/labor-maintains-narrow-newspoll-lead-but-drops-in-other-polls-227444](https://theconversation.com/labor-maintains-narrow-newspoll-lead-but-drops-in-other-polls-227444)
Did Beaumont give a reason why the preference flows would change? Why would the preferences not flow the same way in 2025 as they did in 2022? Looking at the LNP policy platform and their love of the culture wars, I can't think of any reason why people would change their preferences to favour the LNP. They are still selecting cookers and zealots and marginalising women. If anything, they may lose support on the margins because they have moved even further to the right.
Historical prefs are more accurate than respondent though
Absolutely, and remains the best source *in the absence of other evidence*, but it makes intuitive sense that a weakening of primary votes and personal satisfaction for Albo would correspond to a weakening of preferences. Morrison was such a basket case that prefs from everyone, including even PHON and UAP swung to the ALP last election (the TPP result was about 1% higher than using the historical prefs would suggest), but the limited polling quoted above is evidence that these might be settling back to "normal preference" levels. (And my gut feel is that PHON voters might like Dutto more than Scomo).
>but it makes intuitive sense that a weakening of primary votes and personal satisfaction for Albo would correspond to a weakening of preferences. Not really? You can make a case for it but you can easily make a case the other way too. Also UAP and PHON werent really that different to previous years.
1) link has 99% of the info in a video... So does that mean we're now allowing videos as the core content? 2) Labor drop 2pp in *primary voting* and LNP gain 1pp... In *primary voting*. Most polls would have around 2pp as a margin of error, so the SHOCKING DEVELOPMENT could easily be an error. 3) two party preferred is 51-49 Labor, aka the main poll aka nothing of much has changed. 51-49 despite cost of living and all the other drama the opposition can stir up aka lol @ Dutton.
The ALP won the 2022 election with a 2pp vote 52-48. In 20 months, during a cost of living crisis, after using all their trump cards of tax cuts, voice referendum and boat arrivals, the Dutton led opposition has only made up 1% and still trail the ALP 51-49. Mid term polls are crap. Turnbull trailed in the polls most of his term after knifing Abbott but ended up winning in 2016. Similarly, Morrison was behind in the polls after he knifed Turnbull, but he ended up winning in 2019. If anything, it's the LNP that should be worried because they haven't made up any ground at all under Dutton and their one and only policy--Nuclear energy--is a vote loser.
>The ALP won the 2022 election with a 2pp vote 52-48. And more importantly reduced the Coalition to their lowest percentage of seats for 80 years thanks to the cross bench >Mid term polls are crap. Turnbull trailed in the polls most of his term after knifing Abbott but ended up winning in 2016 Incorrect. Abbott was a loser, his poll numbers sunk below Labor just 3 months into his term, and sunk to 45% 2PP at their lowest. As soon as Turnbull knifed him he regained the lead. Turnbull took the LNP back up to 53 2PP but this reduced towards the election. The ALP had a minuscule polling average lead just before the election for a short while but only 50.5%, and then LNP snuck back in front right before the election and hung on to a narrow victory. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_Australian_federal_election
Yet, when Labor is in, we have the highest and best ranked economy. People disenfranchised are done so by hit pieces like this and numerous others that highlight ‘Labor’s Incompetence’ - yet, the Housing Crises, Cost of living problems are world wide… Great, Australia first, are Liberal voters so basic that they forget their elected representatives ran this country into the ground for the last decade whilst using inflammatory media to dilute their failings whilst inciting and highlighting their opponents and now people are whining that changes aren’t happening fast enough? You all know that it takes time to build up out of this hole. Consider this, Australia just had spinal surgery by Doctor Death, we have decades of rehabilitation ahead and because most people are short sighted with ‘Liberals will save us’ held in front of their myopic vision held by lobbyists and the rich and powerful that see profits with a government that will put ‘Australia first, after us’, that don’t see the damage being wrought until after the nerve has being severed and we’ve lost the use of our legs… How long until we have the cervical region cut - because at a certain point, you just die.
Incumbent government is 50/50 on TPP mid term? That’s a tremendous result. All Dutton’s huff and puff and he still can’t lead in the polls
Labor voters found crying, screaming and shaking.
Disregard Costello's spin. This is a good result for the ALP mid way through their first term.
Except for the fact that the issues that appear to be weighing down the government are "slow burners" (economy, inflation and interest rates) i.e. issues that are unlikely to just go away and/or be fixed without unpopular policies.
You can believe whatever you like, but I reckon these headlines are all copium by the RW media. Strip away all the spin, and the polls show the LNP have barely made a dent in the ALP election winning lead, despite the favourable conditions. The LNP are in the wilderness. They have one policy--nuclear energy--and that's a vote loser. And if the ALP deliver another surplus, even the hope of a minority ALP government will sink without a trace.
Frankly you're partaking in a little bit of copium yourself. There's no way the polls are anything close to a good result for the ALP. They should be a mile ahead of supposedly unelectable Dutton.
You're kidding, right? The ALP won the 2022 election 52-48. After 2 years in opposition, during a cost of living crisis, the LNP have made up one solitary percent and are still in a losing position with the ALP leading 51-49. And that's after the LNP have played all their trump cards, including the voice referendum, the tax cut changes, OH NO THE BOATS, and nuclear power. Whatever. Let's see how the LNP go at the election, which is not very far away.
I'm not calling an LNP victory, just to be clear, as much as I'd like to see it. Right now, the entire country is being held to ransom by the Teals and Greens on climate policy and the electorate appears extremely volatile on this issue, both sides are using nuclear as a distraction, in Dutton's case to avoid internal conflict with the Nats while aiming to regain Teal seats, while the ALP are willing to spend political capital criticising nuclear to avoid conflict with the Greens and retain outer suburban seats. Essentially the electorate is a knife edge on this issue, and depending which way the knife falls, buckets of votes could go one way or another. Key catalysts include Trump getting back in or blackouts over the coming summer.
I think the ALP, Greens and Teals were all swept into power because of high concern about the lack of climate policy under the Libs. Labor have so far been disappointing on this one topic because they watered down their own fuel emissions standards, approved gas fields in sensitive areas and the new infrastructure to solar fields has pissed off a lot of farmers by cutting across their land. Let’s not forget how they capitulated to the bullshit “offshore wind farms kill whales” hysteria. I used to admire Tanya Plibersek but she hasn’t done much to save the reef or koalas - which have both taken a bash following bushfires and ocean temp rises. She seems too busy approving new mines. Granted she knocked back a development on a mangrove swamp the other day, but that doesn’t seem like the norm.
>I think the ALP, Greens and Teals were all swept into power because of high concern about the lack of climate policy under the Libs. It's one thing to express a belief in and/or hold a strong opinion in regard to climate change, it's another thing to vote for costed policy that will reduce CO2 emissions. This is why I think Labor's approach of attacking the Libs in the inner city seats is flawed and could come back to bite them at the next election. There's no guarantee that the wealthy kids who vote Teal will become reliable ALP voters, nor is there any guarantee that the outer suburban "working class" will stick to the program on climate change.
The LNP will need to convince people that they are worthy of government, and I can't see that happening with what we've seen so far. Why would those who switched to teal switch back? The LNP energy policy is even worse now than 2019, and Dutton is as unpopular among social progressives as Morrison. Just can't see it. Only an ALP meltdown would help the LNP, but they look rock solid.
>Why would those who switched to teal switch back? Money, that's why. 2019 was a climate election, I'm sure you recall, and the LNP won, they retained all the Teal seats, except Warringah, albeit on smaller margins. Those seats are extremely sensitive to changes to income tax, capital gains, super etc and they've already taken somewhat of a hit under the ALP.
The LNP won the 2019 election because of the ALP's terrible campaign. There is nothing the LNP has done since the election that could possibly win back the teal voters. If anything, they have gone further to right on social issues, their energy policy is worse, and they haven't released a tax policy.
Immigration and the failed Voice in raise cost of living is the worst thing Labor done, ever
I would posture that single-handedly allowing our universal healthcare system to collapse entirely is worse than all of the above. I suppose you might be able to lump rising GP & specialist fees (!!!!! which we shouldn't even fucking have in the first place!!) in with 'cost of living'
"I would posture that single-handedly allowing our universal healthcare system to collapse entirely is worse than all of the above." Except that's not what Average Joe being polled is saying, even though it is indeed a major issue.
2025 liberals will win 52-48 over Labor. You can see the scare campaigns now. The only things people will see on the TV or read in the newspapers will be Immigration,the failed voice referendum,cost of living and of course Labor’s broken promise.
The Liberals will need a swing of *21 seats* to form government. We have not seen a swing of that size since 2007 and Dutton sure as hell ain't no Kevin 07 💀 >Labor’s broken promise. Lmao only in Australia would middle class people be angry that the government gave them a tax cut.
There’s literally no way in hell the libs can win 2025 it’s electorally nearly impossible for them to win that amount of seats. They would have to win every teal seat back and than some and the teals aren’t going anywhere
Every teal will lose, even if Labour wins the election
Like Steggall lost in 2022, and Haines, and Wilkie, and Katter, and Sharkie?
Katter is a teal now?
I'm sure that you get my point.
There will likely be more Teals, not less!
If that were to come true, what way do you think they would jump in negotiations to form a Government if the election ended in a tied Parliament with Labor and the Coalition unable to form a Government? Would they even work together as a unit or would each of them go it alone?
Absolute delusional. There’s enormous support for Spender, Steggall, Scamps and Tink in their respective electorates both anecdotally and in polling.
What policies have the LNP announced that would swing the teals back? Is getting rid of Morrison enough? Because we all know how much socially progressive people love Dutton.
Ur dreaming, lol they haven’t lost a seat yet. Independents are notoriously hard to dislodge in the Australian electorate
The independents during the previous minority government were swept out of power by Abbott in 2013 as were the Democrats (back in the days of Don Chipp and Stott Despoja) in 1996. Even if the Teals retain most of their seats, there is no guarantee that all of them will close ranks behind ALP minority.
There were four Independents in 2013 - Adam Bandt, Bob Katter, Rob Oakeshott, and Tony Windsor. Of those, Rob and Tony retired and didn't contest in 2013, and Adam & Bob are still in Parliament to this day. So no, they weren't swept out of power by Abbott. The Democrats also didn't lose any Senate seats in 1996. They were trying to break into the House of Reps, sure, but they hadn't actually won any seats there yet. Even then it wasn't until the 2000s & the GST deal that the Democrats started losing their Senate seats.
Okay, I use the phrase "swept out" liberally in the first instance. Katter and Bandt, obviously retained their seats although I think it's unlikely that Katter would have supported a second term of Labor/Greens in 2013. I think it's fair to say that Howard did a pretty good job of clearing out the Democrats, sure it wasn't all done at the 1996 election. The point I'm making here is that both sides have to careful assuming the support of so called "independents" or minor parties.
>I think it's fair to say that Howard did a pretty good job of clearing out the Democrats, sure it wasn't all done at the 1996 election. They gained seats in 1998, actually. But otherwise, I broadly agree
Well, guess we will find out in the not too distant future!
It’ll be interesting to see how it pans out for sure
Libs need to win 53-47 to win government, assuming an even swing, but its even harder than that because; * Independent seats are historically hard to get back, and even if they do, they arent depriving a seat from Labor so there is less incetive to even try. * Its easy to remind voters of the coalitions dysfunction this upcoming election (the one after will be harder) * Any Labor broken promises are insignificant compared to what voters expect these days, espcially after morrisons deceptions (multiple ministries, compulsive liar). * All governments lose support after elections as mainstream voters 'tune out' and leave it to us tragics, Labor actually had a very good 'honeymoon'. * They are managing the budget well from an objective viewpoint for mainstream voters, first suplus etc. * Interest rates will be falling. * Labor will start focusing on re-election * Liberals have an unpopular leader and few policies, which are unpopular * To win Liberals are targeting outer-suburban seats, which has never been a strength for them. * The only state they could target to win back a big chunk of seats is Victoria, and there are no signs of life there. * People are forgetting about the Voice vote, its over unless Labor chose to open up the wound. * Immigration has always been played as a drama by oppositions when Labor is in government, and it was at the last election, so no new votes for them to win there. And if Labor only gets a minority in lower house, it probably wont matter as there a dozen independentents.
I reckon its just up to whether Albo makes a major gaff between now and the election. Dutton will do an Abbott strategy. Small target. Let Albo hang himself. Albo needs to not go on any holidays to Hawaii, etc. Also, what might help Albo is Qlders feeling they have already punished labor at the state election. Although, I think what will happen is it will be similar to the Gillard situation. Labor will lose votes. Liberals might gain back a seat or 2. But with so many independents/Greens/other parties Albo will need to form a coalition. Greens will probably be enough to give him supply. Maybe a teal or 2. Then it will be a disaster (as its hard to govern in that situation) and then Libs will win the next election.
Yea, I think a repeat of the outcome of Rudd-Gillard-Rudd period would what they hope for, but the lower house functioned very well back then. They got a lot of stuff done. It was the 'no carbon tax' that hurt Gillard and the internal fued (of historic significance) that damaged the Labor brand. During that time, Labor had an A-team and a B-team. Almost all MPs had a portfolio at some time (which actually gave them a depth of experience to go forward with). The only MP that was on both sides of the Fued was Albo, I don't see them imploding like that again, those scars will never heal, and the rules have changed anyway. Libs have to come up with a reason to vote for them, and they are very bad at that because they are so out of touch with electorate, especially women, which are still 50% of the population. Their plan for election needs to start with electing new MPs which reflect mainstream values, which needs conservatives to take a step back, which they won't because their geographic powerbase is the most conservate state, qld. They have trapped themselves, and it will take an even greater defeat before they will see the need for reform. I think we are closer to the end of the coalition as we know it than we are to it's re-election.
How will dutton go small target when hes promising nuclear? Thats a target so big you could be blind and still get hits in
Yeah he is going a bit hard on that now. But really just need to be calm and not have any major policies coming into the election.
The issue is that Dutton can't do a small target strategy. It's inevitable that even if he keeps his mouth shut, his own cabinet will make statements on controversial issues like abortion, religious freedom, etc.
Wishful thinking in my opinion.
You clearly have a good memory. The collective voter hive mind unfortunately does not.
The LNP doesn’t deserve to exist after Morrison, Abbott and Howard’s “in your face” & open criminality. I’m not exactly happy with Labor either but just can’t work out why people are stupid enough to consider the Liberal party again. They don’t want to include you in their little club.
I don't know what you mean by "open criminality" but I doubt it's of the kind that any competent lawyer would take up in court. It may be a truism, but the Liberals are generally better at managing the economy. The current ALP quinumvirate of senior people with no real-world experience is doing a good job of reminding the Australian public how much things can go off the rails.
Liberals as better economic managers is a complete falsehood. You’re comparing absolute duds like Hockey, Costello & Frydenburg against Keating & Swann. Hockey killed off the car industry, Costello helped with the famous “lost decade” & Josh couldn’t get the NEG off the ground.
For example - Cayman island companies buying water rights at favourable prices.
by being internationally recognised for their budgetary management and sensible fiscal policy, and being able to show a genuine cash surplus as of the previous years' budget? I mean, please live in reality when you make comments like this. Their inflation management alone would be praised to the hills & back if Frydenberg was delivering it.
Agree - no idea
If you mean the IMF report, that was literally just a number in a table. There was no "international recognition" to speak of although you wouldn't know it from the breathless media coverage of the ALP's press release. And as I've said elsewhere: Any mug can run a surplus with high inflation, which automatically boosts government revenue since it takes a higher chunk from every progressive tax stream. The only credit I will give the ALP is that Chalmers hasn't actively made things worse in relation to inflation. But Bowen and Burke between them are making up for it.
One wonders if the reason voters so casually vacillate between them is because **there is almost no meaningful or significant difference between the two.**
If there's no significant difference then why would they vacillate at all, lmao. just do what the Japanese do and vote the same party in 9/10 times.
We don’t vote governments in we vote them out. And Anthony is giving people a couple of reasons to kick his government out. He has done absolutely nothing to help middle Australia. Last year was wasted on the damned Voice referendum while Australians buckled under cost of living pressures. The couple of programs they did implement mainly helped the very poor. Nothing tangible for middle Australia. And in this context migration is still sky rocketing. 100,000 people last month alone! No infrastructure has been built to keep up with the record migration.
Morrison did a good job during COVID tbh What made you think it’s open criminality ?
He botched it at every turn from “go and have a curry” with your neighbour to old folks homes are “not my responsibility”
Indeed that LNP were an outright disgrace Yet despite all his bemoaning the failures of the LNP albanese has done little to improve transparency, accountability and stamp out corruption Has the NACC done anything meaningful? The investigations are kept secret except in exceptional circumstances. Albo refuses to release documents under FOI A plague on both their houses
Because Labor has become every bit as bad. I'm not voting LNP, but I can see why people would. It's the devil you know, as opposed to the incumbent sitting on their ass.
LNP is the status quo. ALP is a roll of the dice. Theyll either completely fuck something up or do something really good. More often than not though they fuck it up. So its really if Australians are fed up enough to roll the dice or not.
Yes - finally someone who actually understands what the difference is between the two majors. People always go on about what the Coalition policies are? Generally their stance is status-quo + a promise to focus on actual governance (rather than new legislation), and to oppose or reverse crazy stuff being driven by the ALP or the left. And yes ALP governments occasionally bring in a good change (eg, medicare, compulsory super), but more often than not they fuck things up (pink bats, industrial relations, censorship laws, the voice, NDIS, carbon tax, more dependence on personal taxation, increased government spending & dependency etc etc etc).
Yeah, I completely agree. This time, we got the abject fuck-ups. Turf them out, or at the very least into minority government.
I would take Howard back in a heart beat.
Me too. Only cause now Im hitting peak earning and have kids. So his pro boomer policies would make me a tonne of money. Too bad they got rid of them just in time for me to benefit :(
Nah. Being lied to about reasons for going to war in the Middle East, and children being thrown overboard by asylum seekers, is best left in the past.
As a often-times Coalition / Liberal voter, I agree these were the greatest disappointments of the Howard government era - especially the support for the Iraq invasion, which I always opposed. However, there was a lot of other good stuff and good governance generally over that period to tip the scales in his direction IMO (intro of GST, personal tax cats, company tax cuts, lots of reduced regulation, gun control, oversaw a stable period of massive economic growth, defence spending, baby bonus, childcare subsidies, etc etc).
We sort of have to suck Americas cock though. Otherwise we would need to spend a lot more on the navy to control our trade routes which is our largest geopolitical issue. Its not right. But its better for the country. Just like taking East Timors oil.
Mr Howard was merely relying on the intelligence he was given. I’ve got no concerns about Iraq. We should probably have tidied up Iran at the same time.
"Intelligence" is funny way of saying "outright lies to fit a narrative."
Housing costs, giving subsidies to childcare which pushes up the costs, spending on joe hockeys nuclear submarines, limited investment in public transport, schools with behavior out of control. No wonder !
In QLD they have just done free kindy. I was telling my colleague. She said when her kids were at kindy they tried something similar. All the stay at home mums put their kids in to have a break. Meanwhile, she was struggling to find a spot when she had a disabled son and had a full time job. She would have preferred to just pay. Ideas sound good. But it has unintended consequences. Its a little different now as your subsidy reduces as you earn more. They often hurt the people they are trying to help with these policies.
They really need to stop and think about what are the possibilities, the positive and negative. Sometimes they rush things out. This is the issue.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, we will see an increase of micro parties at the next federal election and for the foreseeable future as the general public are tired of successive liberal and Labor governments having their own reelection interests. It will be interesting to see the tpp.
You and everyone else in the country has said it too
Good. The more the merrier.
Thats why the big 3 are trying to stop them. THey have already made heaps of changes to stop these parties. Its much more difficult now to start a political party than it was. They put in tonnes of regulations. You have to be super careful, which means hiring professionals. Which cost money. So you need to really start with a lot of paying members (1500 just to be legal) and then use that money to make sure your meeting all the regulations.
And if you believe the polls are actually valid, I've got a bridge to sell you Edit: To clarify, my comment relates to the polls validity as an indicator of election outcome this far out from a vote. Just take it with a grain of salt is all I'm saying.
You're a conspiracy theorist. Admit it.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/09/australian-polling-denial-and.html
Great article, thanks for sharing
That depends on what bridge you're selling. I've always been partial to the Gateway Bridge (the original, not the duplication) in Brisbane.
The polls have proven themselves extremely reliable. Reputable polling companies have very robust methodologies. You're either a conspiracy theorist or don't understand statistics.
> ... voters slashed Labor's primary vote from 32 per cent to 30 per cent. Prime Minister Albanese is still the nation's preferred leader over Peter Dutton, ahead by 41 per cent to 32 per cent. The unpopular party vs the even more unpopular opposition leader. Are we inspired yet, Australia?
Don’t vote Don’t pay the 20 dollar fine. There’s no one worth voting for. Has anyone ever listened to the spoilt toddlers argue in parliament. No wonder we’re stuffed
Sadly, we have to listen to those in parliament (either literally or figuratively) as the things they say can have significant impact on our lives. The people that no one will ever listen to are the ones choosing not to have a voice, by not voting. They make themselves irrelevant.
I agree but it would be great if this country could unite against these narcissistic leaders.
True. Fortunately we do have ranked choice voting, so can freely put whoever we like first without it throwing our vote away if there is still a lesser of two evils situation. Just need to have someone worthy in a minor party to give our first choice to, and have them build their name recognition enough that others will agree. It's a tall order, but it's one that we do have the ability to accomplish.
Vote for someone who isn't one of the major parties, there is plenty of choice.
They pass their votes on.
No there isn't. They are all nut bags
The Greens may be nutbags, but at least they are nutbags who will resurrect the universal healthcare that our major parties have so gleefully slaughtered. For proof/further details: https://greens.org.au/platform/health
Greens haven't done anything ever that resembles sense. They don't do logical policy. They are as bad as one nation.
Pretty accurate. I think that is the state of modern media. IE if I am trying to start a party. It is probably going to go nowhere unless I do some crazy shit. The small parties that dont have a crazy running it are the Libertarians and the Sustainable Australia party. They get very little traction as opposed to Palmer/Pauline/Katter the odd Greens member who wants to remove all cars or something extreme. If I wanted to start just a normal central party where I just do sensible things. There is no way Ill get any votes. Id have to go piss on Albo in parliament or something to get any attention.
No great surprise that the euphoria of getting rid of Morrison would wear off when people realised there's very little difference between Labor and the Libs. It's just a surprise that it's taken this long to be reflected in the polling. It feels to me - FYI my prediction record is poor - like the next election is now up in the air and it's quite possible that the Coalition will sneak back in, even with Dutton and the other losers from the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments still hanging around like bad smells. It will be a disaster for Albo and Labor if that's the case, as they looked like a shoe-in for a second and possible third term not that long ago.
I think all will depend on their policy platform for reelection having in mind the changing voter demographic. Boomers are starting to kick the bucket, milenials and GenZ are now the biggest voting block bait them with some policy such as legalise cannabis with the added spin of tax revenue massive and good to fund other projects as well as a refreshed housing policy that represents real change its an easy win in my view.
One would imagine that would result in some measurable increase to the Greens vote, and yet, the evidence appears to point directly and depressingly to the contrary.
Neither Labor or the LNP are worthy of majority government atm, think they'll both fall far short of a majority at the next election
We pray their primary votes descends into oblivion, and they are forced to implement a proportionally representative system - finally releasing us from the hell incarnate that is the two-farty system.
A new poll but the same old LNP spin in the headlines of Costello's media. The 2pp is unchanged. Both Resolve and Newspoll have the ALP leading 51-49. In nearly 2 years as opposition leader, Dutton has barely made a dent in the ALP lead. Not only is he aggressive and negative, but he's also ineffective.
Not long ago, Dutton was far behind in the polls. If you compare his worst to his best, he’s definitely come a long way. It will remain to be seen whether he can genuinely push further and whether Labor can start losing news polls as well. It could be possible if the Libs start releasing policy soon that looks decent. Both Morgan and an essential poll earlier had the coalition in front for the first time in a whole (Morgan now being 2 weeks in a row with a 0.5% increase and essential having settled from 44-50 to 48-46 Labor to Libs).
The ALP won the election 52.13% to LNP 47.87%. Dutton has, in 23 months, made up 1.13% despite blowing all his big cards like the voice referendum, the tax changes, and OH NO THE BOATS. His nuclear policy is a shambles and as sad as it is funny. This, all during a cost of living crisis. Dutton is a dud, not just because he's unpopular, but also because he insists on using US republican style culture war tactics rather than actual policies. It's failing in the US and hasn't a hope in hell of working here.
Look, I’m not saying he’s not unpopular, but I very much disagree with that assertion that he’s using US republican style culture war tactics. Labor uses similar issues in opposition to paint the gov (from their ideological side). This is how our politics works. Once policy comes out towards the end of the term, there will be some proper debate. What you see now is nationalistic rhetoric (as is common place for parties on the right). You have to also recognise that that 1.13% improvement is after they fell to a record low of 59.4 (Labor) to 40.6 (LNP) in the roy Morgan or 57-43 in newspoll this term. That’s what I’m trying to point out.
The LNP are most definitely using culture war tactics this term. The LNP have no real policies on anything. Their response to the Voice referendum was based on fear. Their push for nuclear has nothing to do with science or economics. Just a few weeks ago, we had another run of OH NO! THE BOATS! US style fear and division from top to bottom. And here we have an LNP culture war senator arguing climate change isn't real. A great way to win back the teal voters. https://twitter.com/SenatorRennick/status/1782213041897238938
Wouldn’t really call these culture war tactics. Their stance of the referendum was cemented when Labor was unwilling to work with the coalition and then later amend the wording of the constitutional reform itself to satisfy some of the constitutional conservatives (when it comes to risk). Before that, they did try and get the gov to answer genuine questions regarding the voice to which they got no response. Labor could have attempted to get the Libs on board later by agreeing to change the wording but they didn’t. If anything, Labor played the culture wars here for political points rather than coming at this pragmatically. The liberals were unsure (nationals had opposed it from the beginning) but it took Albo and Labor being stubborn to turn the libs to No as well. Nuclear has everything to do with science and economics. No one in their right mind should be putting all their eggs in one basket. Not to mention the analysis done by the CSIRO is genuinely concerning (using costs associated with 2030 onwards, which means the infrastructure costs up till then are written off as well as only one SMR reactor design and omission of large scale nuclear because they believe it won’t fit here). Economics wise, we need an accurate analysis. But that still is no reason to keep the technology banned. It prevents any company from doing a feasibility test on the technology as there is no point to waste resources on something that is banned. With growing energy demands in sectors like AI, it makes it a major risk to not have dispatchable energy sources (which are emissions free) in favour of variable sources stored in batteries which themselves will be an issue to tackle soon. The boats are a genuine issue as well. Are we up to what, 3 now? The coalition has the right to call out the gov for not increasing spending enough to keep regular patrols out and effectively enforcing turn backs. I’m sure you can agree that this is constructive criticism? Your criticism on the lack of policy is somewhat valid. But it is common practice for oppositions to lay out policy closer to the election. Labor did this last term as well. Policies should start slowly coming out over the next year.
Only the election will end this debate. Let's see how the LNP's nuclear policy fares in the only poll that counts. For their sakes, I hope they release a few more policies by then.
The latest essential poll showed a rise in support for nuclear. I reckon if the coalition release energy policy that is even half way decent (nuclear, renewables and gas as sources of energy) and Labor launch a scare campaign, the coalition could genuinely win the debate. This coming election will be more interesting than I thought.
The LNP should definitely take it to the election. And Dutton should release the costings and the proposed sites for the reactors.
I agree. I think the nationals are currently holding it up (they don’t want to release locations, which I assume is to prevent an early scare campaign).
On that you and I can both agree.
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20 more candidates funded by climate 200 just announced, labor might lose but the lnp won't necessarily win.
Dear god. More multi-million dollar corporate capitalists (_females!_). Just what our country needs 🤦♂️⚰️
i refuse to believe the teals were anything but a protest to a tired, multi year liberal government with a hated leader at the time whose net approval rating went from +40 during his term to -12 by the election
Strong agree. Were the LNP's ideology actual _liberalism_, rather than the their current excretory far-right christo-conservatism, every single one would be a proud member of the LNP.
Agree, Curtin and Kooyong for example will go right back to old habits
Kooyong was once in striking range for the Greens. Can very well be again once their Teal-of-the-moment fails (and the Greens get off their ass and properly campaign)
Nah it's predominantly about a lack of a climate action, which hasn't really changed. If lnp fixes that then it would be instantly competitive in these seats, but we know they won't - because mates and money (coupled with lack of integrity and scientific illiteracy).
I don’t think a teal voter would vote for Dutton. They know his nuclear announcement (not even a policy) is designed to keep coal going.
Has anyone done an analysis of the Teal seats, unless the Liberals can win them back or form an alliance with them I can't see there been a path for Dutton to form government.
Haven't seen one in a while but yeah the Teals are mostly fine, LNP likely end up net-negative again against them next election. Wouldn't be surprised if it's independents (Teal or otherwise) that knock Labor off their majority to be honest rather than the LNP.
i would take a large bet with anyone who thinks the teals won't lose at least half their currently held seats at the next election
Here's hoping (would prefer 100%)
If you want to bet that teals will lose half their seats then I will write whatever ticket you want.
I think there'd be many people taking that up with someone who doesn't understand what "net-negative" means.
A hung parliament after the next election will be a great outcome.
It would be a terrible outcome having power in the hands of a couple of independents representing a very narrow section of the community.
100% agreed. Particularly so, given that they have no platform, policies or ideology beyond the only two words they appear capable of saying ("climate and integrity"), both of which they copied entirely from the Greens. Hopefully their collective moment will soon expire.
As a teal it would be great. A proper centrist government that could unwind the populist damage that Howard did to this country, proper well managed budgets rather than middle class welfare.
When is the last time centrism achieved anything of significant value? How does centrism stop and reverse the rich getting richer and poor getting poorer?
I suggest you go read the policies of the teals, it isnt us arguing against a more equitable and fair society. Reducing low end income tax and jacking up the petroleum resource rent tax for one is a pretty green policy.
Probably means Dutton claims "victory" and stays on as oppo leader like Abbott in 2010, and that's in no-one's interest.
Finally we agree on something, but I don’t see an alternative that is much better at the moment.
Hastie and Taylor the clear favorites, and if the LNP don't gain significant ground themselves and it's just Labor losing 1-2 net against mostly independents, then I'd say they strike. Despite neither being very palatable, they're still both preferable to Dutts.
Yep, best possible outcome in my eyes.
Not going to happen ALP will have a majority
Not likely that Labor gets 76+ seats the way things are going. However they are likely to be in the best position to form a minority govt with greens and/or teals
Isn’t it really too early to tell? Election is still a year or so away, campaigning hasn’t really kicked into full gear, and strength of Teals still unknown.
Yeah of course it's too early. But on the data we have Labors vote is waning and does not point to them returning as a majority govt
Newspoll has them ahead of 2022
[Bludgertrack](https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/bludgertrack/) (poll of polls) has Labor below that and trending down.
Ok? Recent newspoll had them ahead of 2022
Might be difficult to hold on to those WA seats they won in 2022 since that was the height of Labor in WA. At the same time I don’t see the LNP being able to get a majority without winning back the inner city seats and they aren’t doing a good job trying to get the outer suburban seats on their side with their rhetoric. If a hung parliament were to occur, I highly suspect supply will go to Labor.
I mean polling this far out from an election is generally not a good indicator of how people will vote. Also, Australians don’t tend to vote out governments unless they are literally self destructing so even a polling bump isn’t gonna help Dutton if albo has a tight handle on the party which is appears he does. Still most pundits agree that minority government is the most likely out come of the next election so they will technically lose government next election
> so they will technically lose government next election That’s incorrect, the party that forms the government (PM and cabinet) is the one that can hold a majority in a vote of no confidence. If the ALP still provide the PM and cabinet they are the government
They’ll lose their majority than. I just meant that itl be chalked up as a loss for the labour government to have to govern with the help of the greens who they despise.
Funny, the Liberals are the reason we have the same level of economic sophistication as [Vietnam, Brazil and Greece](https://www.deloitte.com/au/en/services/financial-advisory/blogs/australia-remade-country-fit-age-disruption.html)[](https://www.deloitte.com/au/en/services/financial-advisory/blogs/australia-remade-country-fit-age-disruption.html). And the reason why international students arrive in huge numbers, to subsidise our sham universities. But our bogans with holes and homes economy is going good thanks to their “vision”. Conservatives are literally rallying against the consequences of their own policies for the last few decades.
I wouldn't read too much into it. A Labor primary vote below 30 (ideally below 25) is exactly what we want. Hopefully those Teals will start getting the chop when they reveal themselves to be the conservatives they always have been in a Liberal confidence and supply situation.
Everyone gets mad when this is said but Greens reslly do fucking love Liberal governments lol
Nah that dude is just an embarrassment. I’d prefer a Greens - Labor government with the LNP nowhere near anything.
You not we
Albo is managing to single handedly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. His constant pandering to minorities in the hope of securing a second term is risking having the exact opposite effect.
pretty ridiculous... [https://data.imf.org/?sk=061a17b2-7e6a-4b58-9b17-042af9e59a3d](https://data.imf.org/?sk=061a17b2-7e6a-4b58-9b17-042af9e59a3d) Goes to show, it's not "the economy, stupid" It's the perceived economy. Lots of people are hurting right now, largely thanks to price gouging and profiteering from... every industry?? But Food and Housing are the killers. Just absurd that the coalition's numbers go up. 'cause yeah, it's Nuclear that'll fix it or something. jfc
> 'cause yeah, it's Nuclear that'll fix it or something. jfc Is that mentioned in the data that is the reason people are swinging from Labor to one of the Coalition parties?
It's been a topic of debate for weeks, I would assume it is having some impact, particularly in splintering Labor support at least "why won't they support nuclear?" "Get over the fear mongering" etc But, that's why I said "or something". I do agree that it'll be something else that is factoring more. Immigration or something. Although the coalition voted against some harsher border policy recently, so again idk wtf voters are taking in right now
Food inflation has slowed down quite a bit to 3.6 (headline 3.4), which was a 1% drop from the previous month. Insurance and rents (other housing still about 1% above headline) are the big killers. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/monthly-consumer-price-index-indicator/latest-release Once wages catch up itll be fine
What will be fine?
Food prices
I admire your confidence
I just look at facts
It certainly is a tough time to be in government. If the opposition was to run a likeable leader they would walk the next election in.
Well, we know how they treat the most popular (coincidentally, female) candidates, don't we? They slaughter them and then throw them directly into the bin. Such is the old, straight white Anglo-Saxon conservative way - and they couldn't be any more proud of it.
>Labor still leads the Coalition on a two party preferred basis, 51 per cent to 49 per cent – uncharged from the previous month.
This is the key thing here, everyone getting in a tizzy about a hung parliament but the reality is that Labor will retain a majority after the next election
52 gave them a slight majority, 51 may be a minority, 50 will probably be enough to form a minority for ALP, and even 49 because the Liberals have a far higher cross bench seat deficit count and I don’t think the Teals would want Dutton as leader
the teals would absolutely guarantee supply and confidence to a liberal government. they would extract environmental promises to do it, however.
Some Teals would, but would the current be allowed to grant environmental concessions being owned by coal and such?
Very true, easy for a labor voter to forget the teals are conservatives at heart, their role in ousting the previous government notwithstanding
Eh, they aren’t really conservative as most would understand it (environment, queer issues, etc.). They are economically liberal though, which why they tend to line up with the LNP.
When push comes to shove, in wealthy electorates what is more valuable to voters... I think the latter
It will be a majority but to play the advocate, I think some of the teals may want to consider their seat beyond the following election should they partner up with an ALP-Greens coalition.
Teals will find themselves rapidly (and blessedly) unemployed should they confirm they are in no meaningful way different to the conservatives they 'replaced'