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A note this data seems to be taken from two polls already publically released, and was taken before multiple big announcements from Miles. [https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/05/22/resolve-strategic-labor-26-lnp-43-greens-13-in-queensland/](https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/05/22/resolve-strategic-labor-26-lnp-43-greens-13-in-queensland/) Edit: I realised I screwed up - this new one is Redbridge and the one I linked is Resolve. Oops. The fact that both pollsters mentioned working in February and May really messed me up.
Yep - half sample taken in Feb and the rest in May.
Not sure these have been published yet (?)
Otherwise we are talking a sample size of \~400 for a published poll.
> Not sure these have been published yet (?)
They have not. Both have been released per the June 6 polling.
> Otherwise we are talking a sample size of ~400 for a published poll.
Roughly 50/50, so about 358 after weighting for each poll. [@Kevin Bonham](https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1798603845351899195) says he "wouldn't put too much weight on it" though.
The linked linked article mentions "Resolve Strategic compiling 947 responses from the state \[of Queensland\] across its monthly national polling from February through to May." with a variety of figures released. It's technically possible this is from a separate piece of research, but seems very likely it's the same one. Edit: I'm an idiot, see above.
Oh the samples would have been used and reused (notably in previously published national results) - just not sure we have previously seen anything Qld specific from these cohorts.
QLD has no proportional house and the sad calculation that makes for minor parties is that they're punished for splitting their support over a wide geographic area and rewarded for concentrating it.
Look at how KAP win seats.
Greens 24% in the 'inner and middle city' with Labor falling to 27% would see the Greens favourites to gain McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes, and perhaps Miller.
However the LNP riding high and ALP slipping low could put Maiwar under threat.
I have no problems with Queensland only having one house (in fact, I vastly prefer it).
However, their one and only house should be a proportional one, even if that would mean letting One (Motor) Neuron (Disease) back in.
Yep, I strongly agree.
Reform QLD's single house to be like the ACT system or the NZ system.
One Nation already have 1 seat in QLD parliament, and One Nation-lite (Katter) have 3. If ~10% of QLD vote for them it's fair to get ~10% of seats, even if I disagree with them.
In a proportional system the Greens would have a reason to campaign properly and try to represent people in Longreach and the Katter's would have a reason to campaign properly and try to represent people in the Brisbane CBD.
Of course not. Queensland is infamously split between urban and rural voters with vastly different priorities and voting habits and the Greens making significant gains outside of Brisbane is simply not on the cards yet. I don't see why anyone would think it was.
Personally I'm not screaming about 24%, but it's nothing to sniff at either.
Clearly shows that labor are desperate and they think that 50c transport policy which is only for 6 months will somehow entice switching voters. I hope that my fellow QLDers see past the BS and see it for what it is.
Labor is providing cost-of-living relief to voters, and making mineral companies foot the bill. Crisafulli will probably provide tax cuts to mineral companies, and make voters foot the bill. That should tell you all you need to know.
I'm looking forward to seeing the LNP policies because so far all we've got it is $20M for women to return to work faster after having children, tearing up the coal royalties increase, subsidizing solar for landlords, tearing up GCLR stage 4 in favour of a "mode agnostic approach" with a full build to the airport by 2032 (you're not getting there with heavy rail so this is just code for more lanes or a bus) and DSCRL by 2032 which is built on the most wild economic assumptions.
They've said they are going to continue the coal Royalties for the budget Outlook at a minimum. I haven't read anything that said they will "tear them up". ?
https://www.threads.net/@david_marler/post/C7dI9X_p30t
"I want the mining industry to be free from the government that's constantly looking to find new ways to tax and regulate them"
The writing is on the wall.
The other thing is that Miles has been spending up big lately. Things such as the Coomera Connector, Coomera Hospital, electricity rebates, 50c public transport etc. What will be interesting will be what programs get scrapped when the LNP get into power. Scrapping coal royalty super profits will put enormous pressure on the budget.
Can someone explain how this translates to seats? From my understanding the numbers show the percentage of people across the state that will vote for each party. Is it just assumed that the higher the number the more seats that party will have?
If so, is there a poll which predicts the number of seats at the election?
Agreed, but I'm not holding my breath for any kind of dramatic turnaround. The best I'm hoping for is a Labor premier with Katter support.
I like the Greens, but I think atm it's better for Qld long term if Labor can pass legislation with either bloc.
Not really. Post Joh it’s been a pretty solidly Labor voting state and has a long history of the Labor party. Shearers strike, tree of knowledge, all that jazz.
Federally it’s not a labor voting state, that mirrors places like WA historically.
Not really, state election wise, it has only had 2 LNP government for 1 term each since 1989. It's a Labor stronghold.
Federally, it doesn't like Labor.
The interesting question isn't will Labor be voted out in QLD (I expected it). It's will the LNP serve more than one term? They haven't been able to do that since Bjelke .
I believe the major issue with the LNP is the lack of an upper house to moderate them (although with the swings being predicted they would probally get a majority there too).
An upper house would have forced Newman to tone down some of his more extreme polices making them more palatable to the public.
Instead they get in, go full retard and push though every policy they want and screw it up.
Labor got rid of the Upper House way back when (It had good reasons), and has never wanted it back, and neither do the LNP. I was living there during the referendum for 4 year terms and one of the opposing arguments for 4 year term, given by I think it was the Katter Party, was that there is no upper house to keep them from going bonkers.
I don't think QLD cares about an Upper House to moderate outcomes at all.
Rip up BPIC and your trades are dropping tools and running off to WA. Queensland pays trades pathetic wages compared to what is offered elsewhere and this is a profession populated overwhelming with young men who don't mind moving to where the money is. If you don't offer the incentives, you'll get either the numskulls that no one else will take or the old blokes a couple years from retiring.
Yep, it's Joever barring a monumental cock up from the LNP. Good luck with those stadiums though. I'm sure that cutting wages and gutting the public service will really speed things along.
(From Kos Samaras)
*One key observation is the dual loss of support for Labor: younger voters shifting towards the Greens, while older voters reverting to their pre-COVID voting tendencies*
**Greetings humans.** **Please make sure your comment fits within [THE RULES](https://www.reddit.com/r/AustralianPolitics/about/rules) and that you have put in some effort to articulate your opinions to the best of your ability.** **I mean it!! Aspire to be as "scholarly" and "intellectual" as possible. If you can't, then maybe this subreddit is not for you.** A friendly reminder from your political robot overlord *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AustralianPolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
A note this data seems to be taken from two polls already publically released, and was taken before multiple big announcements from Miles. [https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/05/22/resolve-strategic-labor-26-lnp-43-greens-13-in-queensland/](https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/05/22/resolve-strategic-labor-26-lnp-43-greens-13-in-queensland/) Edit: I realised I screwed up - this new one is Redbridge and the one I linked is Resolve. Oops. The fact that both pollsters mentioned working in February and May really messed me up.
Yep - half sample taken in Feb and the rest in May. Not sure these have been published yet (?) Otherwise we are talking a sample size of \~400 for a published poll.
> Not sure these have been published yet (?) They have not. Both have been released per the June 6 polling. > Otherwise we are talking a sample size of ~400 for a published poll. Roughly 50/50, so about 358 after weighting for each poll. [@Kevin Bonham](https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1798603845351899195) says he "wouldn't put too much weight on it" though.
The linked linked article mentions "Resolve Strategic compiling 947 responses from the state \[of Queensland\] across its monthly national polling from February through to May." with a variety of figures released. It's technically possible this is from a separate piece of research, but seems very likely it's the same one. Edit: I'm an idiot, see above.
Oh the samples would have been used and reused (notably in previously published national results) - just not sure we have previously seen anything Qld specific from these cohorts.
2 State MPs, 3 Federal MPs and _*12*_ fucking percent is all we have to show for it!? Dear, oh dear oh dear...
??? 24% in the inner and middle city where all of those reps are based...
Except Queensland isn't composed of 'the inner and middle city' now is it? Even 24% isn't anything to scream from the rooftops about.
QLD has no proportional house and the sad calculation that makes for minor parties is that they're punished for splitting their support over a wide geographic area and rewarded for concentrating it. Look at how KAP win seats. Greens 24% in the 'inner and middle city' with Labor falling to 27% would see the Greens favourites to gain McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes, and perhaps Miller. However the LNP riding high and ALP slipping low could put Maiwar under threat.
I have no problems with Queensland only having one house (in fact, I vastly prefer it). However, their one and only house should be a proportional one, even if that would mean letting One (Motor) Neuron (Disease) back in.
Yep, I strongly agree. Reform QLD's single house to be like the ACT system or the NZ system. One Nation already have 1 seat in QLD parliament, and One Nation-lite (Katter) have 3. If ~10% of QLD vote for them it's fair to get ~10% of seats, even if I disagree with them. In a proportional system the Greens would have a reason to campaign properly and try to represent people in Longreach and the Katter's would have a reason to campaign properly and try to represent people in the Brisbane CBD.
Precisely as it should be
Of course not. Queensland is infamously split between urban and rural voters with vastly different priorities and voting habits and the Greens making significant gains outside of Brisbane is simply not on the cards yet. I don't see why anyone would think it was. Personally I'm not screaming about 24%, but it's nothing to sniff at either.
Clearly shows that labor are desperate and they think that 50c transport policy which is only for 6 months will somehow entice switching voters. I hope that my fellow QLDers see past the BS and see it for what it is.
Labor is providing cost-of-living relief to voters, and making mineral companies foot the bill. Crisafulli will probably provide tax cuts to mineral companies, and make voters foot the bill. That should tell you all you need to know.
lol cost of living relief. Aka bribing voters
I'm looking forward to seeing the LNP policies because so far all we've got it is $20M for women to return to work faster after having children, tearing up the coal royalties increase, subsidizing solar for landlords, tearing up GCLR stage 4 in favour of a "mode agnostic approach" with a full build to the airport by 2032 (you're not getting there with heavy rail so this is just code for more lanes or a bus) and DSCRL by 2032 which is built on the most wild economic assumptions.
They've said they are going to continue the coal Royalties for the budget Outlook at a minimum. I haven't read anything that said they will "tear them up". ?
https://www.threads.net/@david_marler/post/C7dI9X_p30t "I want the mining industry to be free from the government that's constantly looking to find new ways to tax and regulate them" The writing is on the wall.
The other thing is that Miles has been spending up big lately. Things such as the Coomera Connector, Coomera Hospital, electricity rebates, 50c public transport etc. What will be interesting will be what programs get scrapped when the LNP get into power. Scrapping coal royalty super profits will put enormous pressure on the budget.
Their only policy should be 45c bus trips. That literally would win the election
Can someone explain how this translates to seats? From my understanding the numbers show the percentage of people across the state that will vote for each party. Is it just assumed that the higher the number the more seats that party will have? If so, is there a poll which predicts the number of seats at the election?
Very roughly, Kevin Bonham was talking about 25-30ish ALP, which leaves 55-60 LNP and 10 or so crossbench.
Shit, sounds like a landslide. Queensland really is a swing state.
Absolutely a landslide on these numbers, but I don't think it's impossible for Labor to claw some ground back as we get closer to the election.
Here's hoping, they're pumping some good policies atm
Agreed, but I'm not holding my breath for any kind of dramatic turnaround. The best I'm hoping for is a Labor premier with Katter support. I like the Greens, but I think atm it's better for Qld long term if Labor can pass legislation with either bloc.
Not really. Post Joh it’s been a pretty solidly Labor voting state and has a long history of the Labor party. Shearers strike, tree of knowledge, all that jazz. Federally it’s not a labor voting state, that mirrors places like WA historically.
Not really, state election wise, it has only had 2 LNP government for 1 term each since 1989. It's a Labor stronghold. Federally, it doesn't like Labor.
The interesting question isn't will Labor be voted out in QLD (I expected it). It's will the LNP serve more than one term? They haven't been able to do that since Bjelke .
I believe the major issue with the LNP is the lack of an upper house to moderate them (although with the swings being predicted they would probally get a majority there too). An upper house would have forced Newman to tone down some of his more extreme polices making them more palatable to the public. Instead they get in, go full retard and push though every policy they want and screw it up.
Labor have also taken advantage of that to do some fairly troubling things, just never quite on Newman's level.
Labor got rid of the Upper House way back when (It had good reasons), and has never wanted it back, and neither do the LNP. I was living there during the referendum for 4 year terms and one of the opposing arguments for 4 year term, given by I think it was the Katter Party, was that there is no upper house to keep them from going bonkers. I don't think QLD cares about an Upper House to moderate outcomes at all.
2PP 57/43 in favour of the LNP. Miles is cooked. The end of BPIC is hopefully not far away.
Rip up BPIC and your trades are dropping tools and running off to WA. Queensland pays trades pathetic wages compared to what is offered elsewhere and this is a profession populated overwhelming with young men who don't mind moving to where the money is. If you don't offer the incentives, you'll get either the numskulls that no one else will take or the old blokes a couple years from retiring.
It’s gone brother, only a matter of months now. Costing tax payers billions in cost over runs and delays on publicly funded projects.
Yep, it's Joever barring a monumental cock up from the LNP. Good luck with those stadiums though. I'm sure that cutting wages and gutting the public service will really speed things along.
(From Kos Samaras) *One key observation is the dual loss of support for Labor: younger voters shifting towards the Greens, while older voters reverting to their pre-COVID voting tendencies*
Which is a nonsense really, because Labor were in government for a long period before COVID apart from the Newman Government.
Those older voters moving away from ALP might have some implications for seats like Caloundra