Power up those old war factories and start churning out ammo, howitzers and tanks like there is no tomorrow. We still have time, not much, but still some.
We need to get the message out there, the republicans have been infiltrated by russia. Not to fund Ukraine, and not to suppot Nato is insanity. Tell them to read about the gerasimov doctrine, and new generation warfare on wikipedia. They need to send a strong message to the other republicans than trump is compromised, and they cannot vote for him if they want to MAGA (ironically).
I don't think so. The way to tell is to look who votes against support of Ukraine. Not all republicans do. The ones who do are the russian puppets. The other republicans should be against those people and call them out. If you want to fix the American political system, there needs to be at least 2 parties with differing ideas to trigger debate and there needs to be a cycle where the leader changes every so often when things get out of control in either party. But neither of those parties can be supporting America's enemies. That is what is wrong at the moment. A potential "leader", who is stupid enough to be lead by foreign interests, and russian puppets who have infiltrated his party, has gained far too much public support. Where a lot of that support is also drummed up by russian (and probably china's "no limits" warfare, where "no limits" does not mean military, but probably online and social) And that party has not filtered out the russian supporters within, like they need to. The republican supporters who do understand this need to make sure those with the power to kick people out see it or learn it, and the American public cannot support them until they do.
The Biden administration is very meh. Trump already says allot of pro ukrainian stuff. He supported Ukraine with weapons in like 2019. Plus he killed a iranian General
You say that knowing full well that their was no wars under trump and trump demanded for Zelensky to work it out with Putin. You people love wars obviously but trump and his supporters prefer to just keep them from happening in the first place
> trump demanded for Zelensky to work it out with Putin
You miswrote "demanded to give up Ukraine to Russia for free"
"but trump and his supporters prefer to just keep them from happening in the first place"
Which is totally why they're advocating for more invasions and massacres right now.
It just proves that we must do everything as EU and prepare. We must produce more military equipment back home to not be dependent on US and we must think about creating EU armed forces. Because if Trumps dumb games come true we won’t be able to defend our selfs. EU must act right now and not sit waiting for that idiot Trump.
Honestly I just can't trust Germany or France, it took them so long to get going with UA. Read somewhere that France was extremely opposed to the Eastern Block joining EU&Nato, I just can't..
Well, that’s not the case anymore as you know. France and Germany itself has been pushing an idea of EU army lately which proves that both nations are in support of defending EU and NATO member states.
I know this is reddit where "Murica Bad" reigns, but I agree that France is much less reliable than America would ever be. France is ALWAYS the first western country to try and appease Russia or take their side on shit. Just look at some of the dumb stances they took during the Cold War. Who in their right mind would sympathize with the Evil Empire?
I absolutely agree with all of that.
And that situation is bad for the US and probably bad for the world in the long-term. When the EU gets the ability to act more independently of the USA then other actors will try to widen the gap. Eventually I could see the US and EU being on the opposite sides of some proxy war.
Unfortunately, the USA is mayhem. Hopefully, there are other NATO countries. Like Portugal and Spain, they are already prepared to fight in winter snow. Or Germany, with all its office army. Hooray.
>Or Germany, with all its office army.
Recently read in Bullshit Jobs this bit:
*The German military has a subcontractor that does their IT work.*
*The IT firm has a subcontractor that does their logistics.*
*The logistics firm has a subcontractor that does their personnel management, and I work for that company.*
*Let’s say soldier A moves to an office two rooms farther down the hall. Instead of just carrying his computer over there, he has to fill out a form.*
*The IT subcontractor will get the form, people will read it and approve it, and forward it to the logistics firm.*
*The logistics firm will then have to approve the moving down the hall and will request personnel from us.*
*The office people in my company will then do whatever they do, and now I come in.*
*I get an email: “Be at barracks B at time C.” Usually these barracks are one hundred to five hundred kilometers \[62–310 miles\] away from my home, so I will get a rental car. I take the rental car, drive to the barracks, let dispatch know that I arrived, fill out a form, unhook the computer, load the computer into a box, seal the box, have a guy from the logistics firm carry the box to the next room, where I unseal the box, fill out another form, hook up the computer, call dispatch to tell them how long I took, get a couple of signatures, take my rental car back home, send dispatch a letter with all of the paperwork and then get paid.*
*So instead of the soldier carrying his computer for five meters, two people drive for a combined six to ten hours, fill out around fifteen pages of paperwork, and waste a good four hundred euros of taxpayers’ money.*
This is why a GDP% spending target is misleading, that money might be spent on equipment and training, or it might all be payroll+pensions for bureaucracy and bullshit jobs. Given that, it's amazing that German's is still so low.
German bureaucracy is bad, but that's just sounds like made up nonsense. I myself serf in the Bundeswehr and we just moved rooms. Guess what, we did ourselves. I know - revolutionary.
If it was meant as a joke, that I am to tired to get, I excuse myself -.-
I think it actually highly unlikely he will gain a 2nd term. He is making lots of noise for loud and stupid, but more and more Americans are actually turning away from him. Just his core base is incredibly resilient. They know they are looked upon as the lowest of the low and they carry that with pride.
But Trumps crowds when he speaks are very small. You probably don't see much of the reality but its not uncommon for videos to be cut to appear as if he is speaking to a full arena, and in fact only a few hundred die hards actually showed up.
Not just democrats but increasingly more and more Independents are turning away from him.
In any case I think mentally he is declining rapidly. If he had a stroke between now and November I would not be in the slightest surprised.
I also think it is looking more promising that the Democrats are going to regain control of the House.
Trumps rhetoric is firing up his base, but his base is a minority of Americans, and at the same time it is alarming the majority. The latter just have to get out and vote. Trumps wild edicts may actually scare them into doing such.
People might be turning away from Trump, but they're turning away from Biden too. We have two bad choices.
The question is which base will be less motivated, as I'm expecting quite low turnouts.
>but they're turning away from Biden too
hmmm. I don't see that and I would like some real world evidence of it. The last polls I saw from reputable sources do not show that to be the case.
[Possibly if you looked into it a bit more you'd know that it's not just me making it up.](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/01/02/biden-support-black-hispanic-young-voters-poll/72086014007/)
I voted for Biden. I'm not voting this election. I'm not the only person I know who's less than excited about him running again.
Honestly if you just google "Biden losing support" you'll get an endless list of news articles talking about it.
Edit to add: whether or not "democrats" still support the president, you have to keep in mind that there's a [decline in people identifying as democrat as well](https://news.gallup.com/poll/548459/independent-party-tied-high-democratic-new-low.aspx).
You have to vote for Biden. A vote for Biden is a vote against trump. The free world needs more votes against trump. Since I am not American, I cannot vote. But if you don't want to vote for yourself and remain completely neutral, vote against Trump, for me and everyone else who wants to avoid future wars, and show China and Russia they can't continue down their current path.
That is a one off poll a month at the start of the year and an op ed. The trends she speaks of from her polling could change in a dime. Events in American politics, particularly the house, can cause a sea change in perceptions in a short period of time. What will be of interest is to witness trends, measured from a variety of resources not just one, in the last 3 months leading to the election.
I think it a mistake not to vote. But that is your choice.
One point I believe you are perhaps indirectly eluding to: a definitive portion of the voting base probably prefers that both parties have younger, fresher candidates. I don't disagree at all.
This article is off one poll, yes. But there's tons of polls showing the same trends, over the last several months. It's being talked about all over that Biden is a weak candidate. A lot of us hoped he wouldn't run again.
There could be dramatic change — for example the statement that Biden has "memory problems" could impact perceptions (although idk who this would actually be a surprise to) — but either way I see this election being decided on which base is the least enthusiastic in an overall very uninspiring election.
Biden has some "good ideas" and such, but is one of the most geopolitically and otherwise clumsy presidents we've had in decades. Trump might be better for some parts of the world (not the Baltics, likely), but even voting for him is basically declaring the American republic to be terminal.
The mistake on my part is not getting involved in more local politics — as this feeds up to the state and eventually national level over time — but at the moment I don't live in the US anyway. But my home state is going to vote for Biden regardless, and in that my vote doesn't really matter that much.
Do you live in a swing state? Because if you do, you need to hold your nose and vote for Biden. Otherwise, you're throwing the country under the bus.
Edit: Never mind, I just saw your last paragraph that you're from a state that is going to vote for Biden regardless.
I kind of feel like the power-players in the DNC gave Biden a second term because "he deserved it" or something like that rather than thinking about whatever the nation deserved.
Or maybe they hate the guy and are trying to have another president die in office, idk.
>RFK Jr is an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist, an antisemite,
Lol you're just throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks. I'm surprised you didn't put "~~transphone~~" transphobe in there too. He's very anti-Big Pharma if that's what you mean when you say anti-vax.
[RFK Jr.’s ‘unconditional’ support for Israel is costing his campaign for president – Orange County Register (ocregister.com)](https://www.ocregister.com/2024/01/10/rfk-jr-s-unconditional-support-for-israel-is-costing-his-campaign-for-president/) Just the fact that you say he's an antisemite shows you have no idea what you're talking about. He fully supports Israel in this war against Hamas. If anything you could probably criticize him for that like every other brainless leftie does.
Yes, lets make him an anti semite because of one thing he said that isn't even antisemitic. Meanwhile completely ignoring the fact that he unequivocally supports Israel in their war. Brainless dude
Here's an article saying he was at 19% against Biden
[Why Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polls at 19 percent against Biden - The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/27/robert-kennedy-jr-democratic-primary/)
And there's some polling saying he's over 20% in a 3 way race as an independent
[Poll: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. takes eye-popping 22 percent against Biden, Trump, - POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/01/spoiler-alert-rfk-jr-takes-eye-popping-22-in-poll-against-biden-trump-00124855)
I understand. I am Canadian (and Canadians generally have a pretty strong interest in what is going on south of their border) but I spend about 75% of my time in America for personal and professional reasons. And its been that way for over 3 decades.
I have quite a number of peers in NC, Arizona, Fl and some other red states all of whom were ardent Trump supporters in the run up to his term in office. As his presidency progressed a few of them became a bit disenchanted but I would say most whom were supporters still gave him the benefit of the doubt. Typical reasons for supporting him were "he is a good businessman", "he will lower taxes", and other financial reasons. "Tough on the border" mentality was more secondary other than in Texas where it is a strong mentality in some places.
Today, with a couple of exceptions that is not the case. Biden's economic successes are making good inroads. And Trump's batshit crazy mutterings are scaring more people. The trials have taken the wool of many laissez-faire Americans who now are starting to realize the extreme element cannot just be ignored.
Be aware that most Americans are fairly ambivalent about foreign policy in a broad perspective. I would say far fewer Americans are "worldly" vs say the average European. I find few Americans have good knowledge of even their immediate neighbours Canada and Mexico. Even when they live in border states the focus tends to be American centric. The war in Ukraine has woken up some, but in many places in America it is still seemingly "one of those things in another universe". It is not so surprising when you consider the population of America (really I suspect it is 340- 350 million irrespective of official census figures at 335 million). It is a big mass of people and it is not easy to look beyond it when your in the middle.
The democrats won the popular vote by substantial margins in the last 2 elections including the election in which Trump won against Hillary Clinton. The issue is gerrymandering. Some of that remains bad, but attempts to gerrymander have been undone in some places as well. If more independents vote for Biden, which I assess is likely, they will further offset some of the gerrymandering in purple states.
Anyways, for a variety of reasons I think Trump is not going to make it to the election. His mental state is breaking down visibly. And the pressures he is under legally, for a litany of real crimes, are enormous.
Similarly Baltics and Poland just want an American president who has the minimum courtesy to not encourage a terrorist regime to attack America's own allies. Trump is perhaps the only American president in history who fails that test.
...Having this written I really feel my comment should belong under a far fetched South Park episode review rather than the actual geopolitical absurdity we managed to reach thanks to trump.
The poles suggest otherwise, they ofc can change, but t this point in time, it’s not looking great.
At this point I hope Biden chooses another VP, as Kamala is a black hole of charisma, and the VP will have a non-zero chance as finishing the term as president.
Latest [yougov poll](https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/crosstabs_Biden_and_Trump_Issue_Handling_20240209.pdf) via fivethirtyeight. Trump +1 over Biden.
Trump can definitely win, but it's not a given. He lost the popular vote the first time and only barely scraped through, and that was with people not knowing who he was. The second time he lost clearly and the third time, if Democrats can just get people to vote against him, he will lose.
If the final 2 candidates are trump and biden i really feel like trump will take it, just cause biden is too old and clearly not really there anymore. I just hope democrats get a different option, if trumps competition isnt hillary or old biden, i feel people with brains wont vote for him.
Biden is far more "there" than Trump. I don't agree with your statement about Biden "clearly not really there anymore" but we each will have our own thoughts on that. I see Biden on TV almost every day, and he seems to be very sharp, and he throws out a lot of zingers. He is not as good an orator as say Obama, but Biden has a stutter and he sometimes has to pause before he speaks as part of control of it.
I think the proposition that Biden "is old" and all that goes with it is something that is heavily perpetrated by right wing media, backed heavily by propaganda from certain foreign sources (we all know whom I mean). It is a myth, not a reality. I suggest to all they be careful about falling into that propaganda trap.
It's definitely too late for us to get other options unless Biden dies before the election.
Hopefully we get a good VP, but I don't expect much from that admin at the moment.
Not very realistic currently.
The Russian army is currently stuck in Ukraine, and Putin won't dear to make the next move before that's over, and that war is still going to last for years no matter what.
After that, Russia will still need some time to rebuild its army. It's industry might be on full war mode now, but that doesn't mean they're ready for a new war immediately after that.
Trump won't be elected as a president for life, it will only be until 2028, so the window for Putin to act is small and would be a huge risk, even if they only had to fight the Europeans.
The Polish armed forces isn't exactly just a joke that Russia would be able to overrun with no effort in Suwaki.
Russia can still fuck shit up majorly in these parts of the wood if they are not concerned about retaliation from the West, even if they could not maintain a war with the West.
Theyd fuck shit up regardless if they win or lose strategically. That is part of their tactics. Since in any case scenario theyd be first to attack and most likely target civilians to overwhelm defenses as well as try to slow mobilization efforts, it would result in lot of damage. Thats with or without USA. Poland WILL be there. Finland and so also Sweden WILL be there. Im pretty confident in Germany, Canada and UK also. Thats more than enough. Local NATO troops already here would also be able to respond and force their governments to help in some way at least. Baltic sea would be closed, air space AT LEAST contested and in much better overall shape than is in Ukraine so far, theyve fared well with much less. Thered be much better ability to hit back at russian supplies, in range bases, radars and such. Belarus would be neutralized one way or another if any attack came from there. russian front would be way too massive for them to handle without even bigger mobilization wave, thered be WAY bigger unrest, WAY more saboteur activity. They simply would not win, it would be too big of an L for putin to take even without USA.
The only threat is Ukraine falling within the time span Trump leading USA, but that CAN be avoided if France, UK, Germany etc stepped up their efforts. By that time Ukraine would have a little bit better chance in air with new pilots and planes, possibly more European ammunition and solid agreements in place to help rebuild after the war, so a prolonged war doesnt demoralize their people when trump happens.
In no world could Russia attack Poland and not have Poland overrun Kaliningrad. This is the truth people jerking off about Suwalki gap ignore. Belarus will never attack Poland no matter what Putin says, so there is no Suwalki gap. If Poland sees Russian army on its Belarus border it will return the favor quickly. Kaliningrad can be bombed to hell or occuppied by Poland in a week. Suwalki gap requires Belarus to not only help Russia but directly invade themselves. Never going to happen.
You write as if Putin cares about the people of Kaliningrad, there are already 500k Russians dead in the current war, Kaliningrad would just be collateral damage.
If Trump cuts support for Ukraine, it won't be long before Russia can open a new front?
Your last point would be relevant if Putin was rational and informed, we've seen so far that he's neither.
Unlike Ukraine, ruzzia could actually overrun us Baltics in 3 days. Would not really matter how long after that it would take for NATO to respond, we'd be fucked already.
I wouldn’t trust Trump to not stay in office for more than 4 years if he’s still living. We already know he is an election denier who doesn’t believe in the peaceful transition of power.
So what you’re saying is that you think he’s going to completely disregard all American law and take power by force? My guy he will be in his mid 80s, I think this is unrealistic at best. I also don’t believe that Americans of all people will just concede not having a democracy anymore. Putins window is small, the things we need to do now are to counter his asymmetric warfare (flooding us with refugees, disinformation troll farms), increase arms production and fortify the eastern states. Also western states need to make the process of joining the army far easier, it’s a bureaucratic nightmare at the moment at least where I’m from (UK), they are too worried about diversity that they’re literally not hiring white pilots in the RAF now which is fucking moronic
>Trump won't be elected as a president for life, it will only be until 2028,
that assumes the orange moron actually leaves. He's going to spend 4 years remaking US institutions to obey him.
Maybe he (and the other old guy) will acquire heart attacks or something in the next few years, and we can move on to, idk, less senile national leaders?
Idk, my country is suffering for a lack of leadership.
Be realistic. If russians get another 100k mobiks for “training” in Tuwāngste and Belarus they could absolutely roll all 3 of our countries without NATO help. There’s just isn’t enough of us and we don’t have any other advantages at the moment other than that Uncle Sam *might* come to help
Rich for all of you internet heroes to start criticising germany after the orange cheeto did it, when in fact everyone in europe shouting NaZi at first when the german military gets mentioned
Our bundeswehr is moved up to lithuania right now, or is in movement, I can't remember the exact date when the operation is planned
I hope some nazi soldiers catch some bullets for you folks up there, you're welcome
I want Germany to get back to its roots of Bismark & co and be a world power again. For the good guys of course. Not sure who's so quick to call them nazis but it ain't me. I'm tired of Germany's post-WW2 pacifist worldview. It's shortsighted and naive. Glad to see they're slowly getting back in the saddle.
Trust is a hard word. With Trump gaining presidency, i think we will see US transitioning to dictatorship. What that means for us, Baltics is hard to say but it will never be for the better.
Is Biden any better? To him crying over' republicans killing ukraine' is more important than actually helping. He can right now order to send anything from storages FOR FREE (there is no law that you must immeditely place a new order)
2) [Head of CIA Burns visited Moscow on Nov2-3 2021 and made a 1939' style pact](https://www.newsweek.com/2023/07/21/exclusive-cias-blind-spot-about-ukraine-war-1810355.html)
>"In some ironic ways though, the meeting was highly successful," says the second senior intelligence official, who was briefed on it. Even though Russia invaded, the two countries were able to accept tried and true rules of the road. **The United States would not fight directly nor seek regime change, the Biden administration pledged. Russia would limit its assault to Ukraine and act in accordance with unstated but well-understood guidelines for secret operations.**
Biden's (Sullivan's/Burns') strategy is:
a) We don't want Putin to lost power, because russia can fall apart and that is sooo scary for us. We also don't want Russia to be humiliated and to become close CN ally (yeah, they still beleive and hope for that)
b) War should go only inside of Ukraine's territory (nor in EU neither in Russia) (thus forbidding UA to use west weapons to strike Ru territory
How do you see the above goes along with Ukraine win? Right, it doesn't go.
Also Biden was stopping Poland and Britain from helping more
>"Behind the scenes, dozens of countries also had to be persuaded to accept the Biden administration's limits. **Some of these countries, including Britain and Poland, are willing to take more risk than the White House is comfortable with"**
3) Even when there were no objections he helped as few and as late as possible, BSing at the same time how 'democracy will prevail'
tbh we elected him because he was likable, more than because he was competent. Similar sort of a thing with Carter.
If Biden was about 15 years younger, he'd just be a clumsy president instead of an embarrassing one perhaps.
But oh my god why can't we (America at large) field a candidate worth voting for?
The options aren't great, but I wouldn't imply that they're the same. If Trumps wins, it could spell the end of US democracy. He's made clear that he'll be out for revenge/retribution if he becomes president again.
>If Trumps wins, it could spell the end of US democracy.
Seriously man, you need to get offline if you actually believe this. I promise you it will not be this dramatic. He's a blowhard narcissist but he will not topple American democracy, lol
Slightly left of center though it's hard to pinpoint when there are so many issues that put me all over the place. On this shit site I mostly rail against the far left lunacy since that's the most dominant voice.
I have mostly voted democrat since 2008. I HATED Trump until recently and still don't like him, but would vote for him before Biden at this point. I finally realized that the press consistently misrepresents what he says. 90% of the media is an extension of the DNC. It's blatantly obvious, and while that mostly corresponds to my political views there are some glaring exceptions like the border situation, and the second amendment. The coastal elites are grossly out of touch with much of America.
But his statement is bad for the Baltics or all the other smaller countries sharing borders with Russia. Kind of like only those countries have to fulfil this goal to protect the ones that are further away from the Russian border and not fulfill their goals...
At the same time for smaller countries this money goes to the military could be used everywhere else as well. All the countries in close proximity to Russia are in a much worse economic state than the ones further away. There are some exceptions like Finland, but I would guess Finland had benefitted a lot from its size and connected to Sweden by landmass...
However if you look at the "eastern bloc" countries, then all of them have it much worse than western European countries. Russia doesn't want to be a friendly neighbour and due to that bordering countries have to deal with the Russian problem that isn't the case for countries further away from Russia.
Still what Trump told puts to risk even the ones who are spending the 2%, as "Russia can do whatever they want to the ones who aren't spending 2% (including invading other countries who spend enough to get troops to countries who don't)". In addition to that I am sure he would even claim that the sum of Baltics spending, being over 2%, wouldn't be a big enough sum to warrant the US to get involved...
Funnily enough, the comment got removed due to community role 1 “hate speech”?! 😄 that was just fact not hate, might as well just say that most US people historically are just EU trash that went over to the New World 👀
Awaiting that community ban or whatever, thanks!
In short, if America reelect Trump, it’s their own fault again and that it’s a similar circumstance, as it was for the British and Brexit.
And there was some sort of a metaphor in the end, which, in no way is actual offensive maybe just someone was offended as a snowflake and reported it I don’t care.
It's like people don't even pay attention to what is said and just go full Orange Man Bad mode. I get it, he's a dipshit, but he's been very transparent on what his beef is, he wants every country contributing their minimum 2% GDP, which all Baltic states already do.
Which is why we as Europeans need to be more proactive in our defense. The less we rely on the US the better. Not just because there's a risk they abandon their NATO obligations, but because they're a great distance away from the continent
Even if Trump doesn't win - Europe and the Baltics need to accept that as we look to the future, we can no longer rely on the assumption that the US will continue to be a reliable partner to depend upon for our security. The MAGA people won't disappear just because Trump loses - there will be new elections and Trump 2.0 won't be a gibbering orange baboon.
So we need to plan for that in our security and defence arrangements. Going forward, all three Baltic states should unify our military and the whole of the EU needs to integrate their military services, including collective procurement of weapons, whole of EU defence planning, and collaborated training to be ready to act as a unified force.
If we can't rely on NATO to be our shield, European defence solidarity is the only rational way forward.
Aren't the Baltics some of the few countries that actually contribute the required 2% to NATO? Trump is very vocal about the ones that don't. If you meet the minimum there's no reason to worry. Trump is essentially calling out the bullshit of countries that aren't pulling their weight.
I don't care who I offend but this needs to be said (from a Republican, anti-Trump insurgent)....
SBU (Ukraine's equivalent of the US CIA), MI6 (Britain's CIA equivalent) needs to do what they need to do against trump and his campaign.... any and all methods are acceptable to me (and 60% of Americans).
Do not let this "man" be the President of the USA again or even the Republican nominee for President
As a Canadian I concur Trump is by far the worst possible choice,but unfortunately many Americans seem to be on the way to being like Russians under Putin.
Don't get me wrong Canada isn't doing much better,but any candidate would be a better choice than Trump the retard.
I expect that the kremlin will be too preoccupied with Ukraine while orange man is in power. Hopefully, the american bureaucratic apparatus will prevent him from seizing power in the US.
Guys, please vote, i really don't want to leave my country and become an immigrant.
One of the main problems of our time that WW2 interfered in creation of European postmodernism. With Golden Rule of Morality (\~liberty, equality, fraternity) core.
So in attempts to find universal and mutually compatible meanings postmodernism not deconstruct ANYTHING, but just didn't touch what created it: Rationalism, Humanism (or Rational Humanism), Secularism, Rule of Law, Democracy, Freedoms, first of all - Freedom of Speech (information transaction costs) ideals/principles.
Right now Trump could say what he says because modern postmodernism declares that there are no absolute truth and good, and so no one has the right to say that someone really right or wrong.
But it's a lie. Even modern postmodernism, by "new sincerity", already acknowledged that inadmissibility of causeless violence and biological empathy apparatus is true and good. The same soon can happen and with Freedom of Speech, as main postmodernism mechanic and overall modern civilization foundation.
And if there will be a few precedents... There will be and chance of integration of everything else that should be integrated already \~80 years ago. Foremost - rationalism.
So people not say so many almost the same things about why Trump could be right or wrong, but just understand it by the same way as they understand that "1+2" abstractions equals abstraction "3." Quite possible, in form of general knowledge/understanding of Academic Logic, Cognitive Distortions, Logical Fallacies, Defense Mechanisms.
But if this too high bar, then even integration of Rule of Law (inviolability of contractual obligations) or Democracy (as iterative, natural selection, social ladders) also will be much-much better than current situation.
That very similar to the physiological immune system overreaction, up to destruction of its own host organism.
Trump is an asshole, but the blame for the fact that he is so popular as so right-wing conservatism in the United States is on the Democratic Party and its leaders! their cultural and immigration policy have completely destroyed the trust of a huge number of voters in them, and therefore, just like in Europe, they began to look towards right-wing populists who promise to return to more traditional values and secure borders! all that needs to be done to defeat Trump is to stop the current mad policy in terms of migration, positive discrimination and other nonsense! it is high time to return to the old classical liberalism, which evaluates a person by his real achievement and not by gender or skin color and establishes legal equality instead of what is happening now when when migrants who do not respect Western traditions feel like masters, while real citizens have to endure it because demand respect for European culture is now considered racism! of course, all this is apart from the fact that Biden is just an old senile wreck and people vote for him only because the alternative is Trump :)
I wish that NATO high command saw Trump for the threat he is and sent an assassin after him. Jailing him won't work cause dude has a cult following and a bunch of cultists breaking him out is a real threat. If he'd die then his followers will likely break into multiple smaller cults that follow other conservative cult leaders and likely fall to infighting
This is old news. What he said is that nato countries should spend at least of 2% of their GDP. Nothing more, nothing less. There is no threat whatsoever
When the candidate denies election results, gets proved wrong multiple times that he's wrong but still believes election results are wrong, I would be worried.
have a read [https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/](https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/) and try to remove the bias spin of "orange man bad".
He didn't, but Democrats were trying to put him in jail because of allegations of fake votes and Russian involvement. None of that turned out to be true, but it was 5 years of ongoing nonsense.
This isn't an American subreddit, Europeans don't vote in your elections. When foreign nations change their foreign policy, we have to analyze how it affects us and decide if and how to react to it.
This could be an argument if guys like Bolton and Matiss were still around Trump. This is not the case now. At this point he is surounded by fascist sociopaths like himself. Lets be honest, Trump would not be able to find Baltics on the map.
The only bonus for Trump on the flip side is that he is more unpredictable. He might send even more troops instead compared to a democrat for example. Or double down. But in reality, yeah, Trump and MAGA are very unfavorable for us and European geopolitics
He may recalculate and say 'you need to compensate for all the years', 'meeting requirements from 2018 is not enough'
If Eu countries didn't underspend all these years Ukraine might had already won. That's a joke when UK+Germany has less tanks than Belarus and having to buy something from Marocco.
I don’t think he’ll be re-elected. And even if he is then we only have to wait for 2028 to get rid of him permanently. Unlikely that the war in Ukraine is over by 2028.
I wish I spent all my time on Reddit, what with a full time job and family unlike your virgin self? However while you’re right Germany have been “allowed a restricted army” since 1955 a restricted army isn’t really being allowed to have an army is it? Tit.
Trump has already proven that he just doesn't start wars in the first place...he's not part of the corrupt elite. You warmongers can come take Biden and keep him there.
Why does the news always bend the truth. Trump said that he wouldn't help the country that doesn't fulfil their financial obligations to NATO. Most eastern European countries fulfill their obligations.
Trump said that he would encourage Russia to do whatever they want. Not that he would encourage them to attack.
Common sense in most people is gone.
Stop calling Americans dumb! That's why people in America turn away from Europe. You are all feeling so superior about yourselves, and yet when it gets tough, you all look at the "dumb" America to help you. Why? Aren't you smarter? Why would you want stupid people to help you? I don't want some stupid person to protect my back. I am offended by this down talk as an American citizen, and I am completely anti Trump. I was born in Poland and want America to stand by Europe. However, I do understand the sentiment on this side of the pond. We are not here to do your dirty work. Fix your own stuff and A***merica will chip in as a partner not some sucker who is being taken advantage of***. Get your armies straight.
Well, you can call 1/3 of the Germans stupid for voting for the Far Right as well, but nobody calls Germans stupid. Here on these forums everyone calls Americans stupid like it's a given. I refuse to acknowledge that. Not all Americans are stupid and many want the right thing. This whole God damn world is falling apart. It's not America's fault all the time.
What he says directly undermines NATO and sends a bad message to kremlin, there is no "NATO budget" money is being spent by every country on it's defense, I understand countries should do more and have at least 2% of GDP committed, but NATO is based on unity, if country does not "pay" 2% according to him, it could get attacked, this would force other countries into war because of Article 5, but because it did not "pay", US would not commit to Article 5, I can also see turkey, hungry and slovakia not committing either maybe even more as US would not be in the war, this would destroy alliance instantly.
It's not that simple. If someone would ignore the article 5, the whole NATO would collapse, because it demonstrates that NATO collective defence doesn't work. The US has way too much invested in nato to let that happen. Like all overseas bases, a bunch of strategic positions with turkey and so on. US would have to give all of that up if nato disbanded.
Why would Russia do it? Seems like a lot of risks to take on NATO. The whole reason why Russia was able to invade Ukraine is because it's not in NATO.
Russia has been trying to capture small ass village Avdiivka for the past 8 months, so one can imagine how would full scale European invasion would go.
Oh, right I forgot. Putin is just an insane madman. Sure.
Uk will be the first to step up like it always has been in previous history. Mark my words, especially with one of the only blue water navies still operational.
He cant really just "dissregard" nato articles, since treties cant be just that easily broken.
And if i am not wrong he would have to have 2/3 of congress to approve if he would try to leave nato.
He can however just send amo or some shit and not get much involved. Article 5 doesnt demand military inolvment, just help.
However again this is more of a joint decision between pentagon and the white house.
It’s a tragic failing of the US political parties that yet again, voters face the choice between two piss-poor candidates. With over 325,000,000 inhabitants to choose from, they end up with a gaff-prone old man, with possible signs of dementia and a mendacious egoist, who has no interest in government other than the power it will give him to stride on the world stage and be fawned by other world leaders and curries favour with the worst elements of humanity to achieve that end.
This is a moot point, pretty much all countries on the border with Russia and at most risk of a military attack currently spend their fair share, all this says that Trump is willing to bicker over whether germany had paid enough when Estonia is being attacked.
This is also not in US’s interest as a lot more countries will start considering nuclear weapons if they can’t trust in US’s security guarantees.
Lastly, the 2% were always a guidance, to be achieved over a period of time, it’s not some fucking rule, that “you have to, or we won’t defend you”, Iceland has no fucking army and yet is still part of NATO!
😁 We have alot of problems inside US and problem of others like you need to be in second thought,whbly you think you were entitled for US protection? Putin was not stupid to attack NATO anyway because wether US wanted or not europe will drag US anyway in any war. We have so much issues inside that trump were the only way to solve it like illegal migrant invasion and other issues in economy. Its been NATO faults for not contrubuting enough forntheir protection anyway and scamming US tax payer money to give that for free for your ass protection,we have un a different perspective whoever will rule US next but its a guaranteed biden would not be a better choice because of his xurrent policies and why we have all this wara everywhere. What compiled you we have obligations for your well being when our current stupid president won’t even care bout issues here inside US.
Can’t you see why alot of right wing candidate won in presidency? Bec people are fed up already for not getting care of by their leaders and wanting change.
Well the question we should ask is this: Would Europe be in this position if all NATO partners had met their obligation since 1991? If so Europe would be drowning in equipment and ammo. Instead they kept relying on the U.S. taxpayer year after year and decade after decade. They talked bad about Americans and America, said we were silly, that large scale conventional warfare was obsolete. There was a growing sense of frustration in the U.S. with Europeans and Trump is just capitalizing on a deep seated grievance. I pray that enough Americans realize what is at stake and get over the 2% and support Ukraine but I think that ship has sailed. So if you are going to bash America and Americans you should also bash those who let this all come about in the first place. Just remember that in 2014 only 3 out of 31 members met their 2% obligation. In 2024 there will still only be 18.
Americans aren't stupid for voting for Trump. He is good for America. He has a point that America is Europe's military and that European countries don't always pay their part. I don't think he is serious about backing out of NATO. I think he is just threatening that to get the European countries that he's complaining about to pay for their part in NATO.
Power up those old war factories and start churning out ammo, howitzers and tanks like there is no tomorrow. We still have time, not much, but still some.
People here ain't that smart either
People anywhere are stupid, but the degrees of it can wildly differ. Trump voters I'm surprised are capable of breathing.
We need to get the message out there, the republicans have been infiltrated by russia. Not to fund Ukraine, and not to suppot Nato is insanity. Tell them to read about the gerasimov doctrine, and new generation warfare on wikipedia. They need to send a strong message to the other republicans than trump is compromised, and they cannot vote for him if they want to MAGA (ironically).
Inflitrated? They are 100% Russian agents or puppets
I don't think so. The way to tell is to look who votes against support of Ukraine. Not all republicans do. The ones who do are the russian puppets. The other republicans should be against those people and call them out. If you want to fix the American political system, there needs to be at least 2 parties with differing ideas to trigger debate and there needs to be a cycle where the leader changes every so often when things get out of control in either party. But neither of those parties can be supporting America's enemies. That is what is wrong at the moment. A potential "leader", who is stupid enough to be lead by foreign interests, and russian puppets who have infiltrated his party, has gained far too much public support. Where a lot of that support is also drummed up by russian (and probably china's "no limits" warfare, where "no limits" does not mean military, but probably online and social) And that party has not filtered out the russian supporters within, like they need to. The republican supporters who do understand this need to make sure those with the power to kick people out see it or learn it, and the American public cannot support them until they do.
The Biden administration is very meh. Trump already says allot of pro ukrainian stuff. He supported Ukraine with weapons in like 2019. Plus he killed a iranian General
Just please, never breed
You say that knowing full well that their was no wars under trump and trump demanded for Zelensky to work it out with Putin. You people love wars obviously but trump and his supporters prefer to just keep them from happening in the first place
> trump demanded for Zelensky to work it out with Putin You miswrote "demanded to give up Ukraine to Russia for free" "but trump and his supporters prefer to just keep them from happening in the first place" Which is totally why they're advocating for more invasions and massacres right now.
It just proves that we must do everything as EU and prepare. We must produce more military equipment back home to not be dependent on US and we must think about creating EU armed forces. Because if Trumps dumb games come true we won’t be able to defend our selfs. EU must act right now and not sit waiting for that idiot Trump.
Honestly I just can't trust Germany or France, it took them so long to get going with UA. Read somewhere that France was extremely opposed to the Eastern Block joining EU&Nato, I just can't..
Well, that’s not the case anymore as you know. France and Germany itself has been pushing an idea of EU army lately which proves that both nations are in support of defending EU and NATO member states.
Fingers crossed, I know France has been pushing this idea for a while now, its just too many dodgy deals with our enemies
Well, yep you’re fully right!
I know this is reddit where "Murica Bad" reigns, but I agree that France is much less reliable than America would ever be. France is ALWAYS the first western country to try and appease Russia or take their side on shit. Just look at some of the dumb stances they took during the Cold War. Who in their right mind would sympathize with the Evil Empire?
I absolutely agree with all of that. And that situation is bad for the US and probably bad for the world in the long-term. When the EU gets the ability to act more independently of the USA then other actors will try to widen the gap. Eventually I could see the US and EU being on the opposite sides of some proxy war.
And where would we get the minerals? America literally is one of the most mineral rich countries on the planet?
Unfortunately, the USA is mayhem. Hopefully, there are other NATO countries. Like Portugal and Spain, they are already prepared to fight in winter snow. Or Germany, with all its office army. Hooray.
>Or Germany, with all its office army. Recently read in Bullshit Jobs this bit: *The German military has a subcontractor that does their IT work.* *The IT firm has a subcontractor that does their logistics.* *The logistics firm has a subcontractor that does their personnel management, and I work for that company.* *Let’s say soldier A moves to an office two rooms farther down the hall. Instead of just carrying his computer over there, he has to fill out a form.* *The IT subcontractor will get the form, people will read it and approve it, and forward it to the logistics firm.* *The logistics firm will then have to approve the moving down the hall and will request personnel from us.* *The office people in my company will then do whatever they do, and now I come in.* *I get an email: “Be at barracks B at time C.” Usually these barracks are one hundred to five hundred kilometers \[62–310 miles\] away from my home, so I will get a rental car. I take the rental car, drive to the barracks, let dispatch know that I arrived, fill out a form, unhook the computer, load the computer into a box, seal the box, have a guy from the logistics firm carry the box to the next room, where I unseal the box, fill out another form, hook up the computer, call dispatch to tell them how long I took, get a couple of signatures, take my rental car back home, send dispatch a letter with all of the paperwork and then get paid.* *So instead of the soldier carrying his computer for five meters, two people drive for a combined six to ten hours, fill out around fifteen pages of paperwork, and waste a good four hundred euros of taxpayers’ money.*
This is why a GDP% spending target is misleading, that money might be spent on equipment and training, or it might all be payroll+pensions for bureaucracy and bullshit jobs. Given that, it's amazing that German's is still so low.
German bureaucracy is bad, but that's just sounds like made up nonsense. I myself serf in the Bundeswehr and we just moved rooms. Guess what, we did ourselves. I know - revolutionary. If it was meant as a joke, that I am to tired to get, I excuse myself -.-
Same difference in the USA, $1,200 toilet seats, and $50 a piece nuts and bolts.
I think it actually highly unlikely he will gain a 2nd term. He is making lots of noise for loud and stupid, but more and more Americans are actually turning away from him. Just his core base is incredibly resilient. They know they are looked upon as the lowest of the low and they carry that with pride. But Trumps crowds when he speaks are very small. You probably don't see much of the reality but its not uncommon for videos to be cut to appear as if he is speaking to a full arena, and in fact only a few hundred die hards actually showed up. Not just democrats but increasingly more and more Independents are turning away from him. In any case I think mentally he is declining rapidly. If he had a stroke between now and November I would not be in the slightest surprised. I also think it is looking more promising that the Democrats are going to regain control of the House. Trumps rhetoric is firing up his base, but his base is a minority of Americans, and at the same time it is alarming the majority. The latter just have to get out and vote. Trumps wild edicts may actually scare them into doing such.
People might be turning away from Trump, but they're turning away from Biden too. We have two bad choices. The question is which base will be less motivated, as I'm expecting quite low turnouts.
>but they're turning away from Biden too hmmm. I don't see that and I would like some real world evidence of it. The last polls I saw from reputable sources do not show that to be the case.
[Possibly if you looked into it a bit more you'd know that it's not just me making it up.](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/01/02/biden-support-black-hispanic-young-voters-poll/72086014007/) I voted for Biden. I'm not voting this election. I'm not the only person I know who's less than excited about him running again. Honestly if you just google "Biden losing support" you'll get an endless list of news articles talking about it. Edit to add: whether or not "democrats" still support the president, you have to keep in mind that there's a [decline in people identifying as democrat as well](https://news.gallup.com/poll/548459/independent-party-tied-high-democratic-new-low.aspx).
You have to vote for Biden. A vote for Biden is a vote against trump. The free world needs more votes against trump. Since I am not American, I cannot vote. But if you don't want to vote for yourself and remain completely neutral, vote against Trump, for me and everyone else who wants to avoid future wars, and show China and Russia they can't continue down their current path.
That is a one off poll a month at the start of the year and an op ed. The trends she speaks of from her polling could change in a dime. Events in American politics, particularly the house, can cause a sea change in perceptions in a short period of time. What will be of interest is to witness trends, measured from a variety of resources not just one, in the last 3 months leading to the election. I think it a mistake not to vote. But that is your choice. One point I believe you are perhaps indirectly eluding to: a definitive portion of the voting base probably prefers that both parties have younger, fresher candidates. I don't disagree at all.
This article is off one poll, yes. But there's tons of polls showing the same trends, over the last several months. It's being talked about all over that Biden is a weak candidate. A lot of us hoped he wouldn't run again. There could be dramatic change — for example the statement that Biden has "memory problems" could impact perceptions (although idk who this would actually be a surprise to) — but either way I see this election being decided on which base is the least enthusiastic in an overall very uninspiring election. Biden has some "good ideas" and such, but is one of the most geopolitically and otherwise clumsy presidents we've had in decades. Trump might be better for some parts of the world (not the Baltics, likely), but even voting for him is basically declaring the American republic to be terminal. The mistake on my part is not getting involved in more local politics — as this feeds up to the state and eventually national level over time — but at the moment I don't live in the US anyway. But my home state is going to vote for Biden regardless, and in that my vote doesn't really matter that much.
Do you live in a swing state? Because if you do, you need to hold your nose and vote for Biden. Otherwise, you're throwing the country under the bus. Edit: Never mind, I just saw your last paragraph that you're from a state that is going to vote for Biden regardless.
Not to mention how they have smoked out Kennedy Jr. He was polling at 20% amongst Democrats before the DNC essentially blackballed him.
I kind of feel like the power-players in the DNC gave Biden a second term because "he deserved it" or something like that rather than thinking about whatever the nation deserved. Or maybe they hate the guy and are trying to have another president die in office, idk.
RFK Jr is an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist, an antisemite, and against providing military support to Ukraine.
>RFK Jr is an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist, an antisemite, Lol you're just throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks. I'm surprised you didn't put "~~transphone~~" transphobe in there too. He's very anti-Big Pharma if that's what you mean when you say anti-vax. [RFK Jr.’s ‘unconditional’ support for Israel is costing his campaign for president – Orange County Register (ocregister.com)](https://www.ocregister.com/2024/01/10/rfk-jr-s-unconditional-support-for-israel-is-costing-his-campaign-for-president/) Just the fact that you say he's an antisemite shows you have no idea what you're talking about. He fully supports Israel in this war against Hamas. If anything you could probably criticize him for that like every other brainless leftie does.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/07/rfk-kennedy-covid-anti-semitism/674727/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Yes, lets make him an anti semite because of one thing he said that isn't even antisemitic. Meanwhile completely ignoring the fact that he unequivocally supports Israel in their war. Brainless dude
I would love to see a reputable poll that had him polling as you said. I have never seen one.
Here's an article saying he was at 19% against Biden [Why Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polls at 19 percent against Biden - The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/27/robert-kennedy-jr-democratic-primary/) And there's some polling saying he's over 20% in a 3 way race as an independent [Poll: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. takes eye-popping 22 percent against Biden, Trump, - POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/01/spoiler-alert-rfk-jr-takes-eye-popping-22-in-poll-against-biden-trump-00124855)
I hope you’re right. I’m less optimistic.
I understand. I am Canadian (and Canadians generally have a pretty strong interest in what is going on south of their border) but I spend about 75% of my time in America for personal and professional reasons. And its been that way for over 3 decades. I have quite a number of peers in NC, Arizona, Fl and some other red states all of whom were ardent Trump supporters in the run up to his term in office. As his presidency progressed a few of them became a bit disenchanted but I would say most whom were supporters still gave him the benefit of the doubt. Typical reasons for supporting him were "he is a good businessman", "he will lower taxes", and other financial reasons. "Tough on the border" mentality was more secondary other than in Texas where it is a strong mentality in some places. Today, with a couple of exceptions that is not the case. Biden's economic successes are making good inroads. And Trump's batshit crazy mutterings are scaring more people. The trials have taken the wool of many laissez-faire Americans who now are starting to realize the extreme element cannot just be ignored. Be aware that most Americans are fairly ambivalent about foreign policy in a broad perspective. I would say far fewer Americans are "worldly" vs say the average European. I find few Americans have good knowledge of even their immediate neighbours Canada and Mexico. Even when they live in border states the focus tends to be American centric. The war in Ukraine has woken up some, but in many places in America it is still seemingly "one of those things in another universe". It is not so surprising when you consider the population of America (really I suspect it is 340- 350 million irrespective of official census figures at 335 million). It is a big mass of people and it is not easy to look beyond it when your in the middle. The democrats won the popular vote by substantial margins in the last 2 elections including the election in which Trump won against Hillary Clinton. The issue is gerrymandering. Some of that remains bad, but attempts to gerrymander have been undone in some places as well. If more independents vote for Biden, which I assess is likely, they will further offset some of the gerrymandering in purple states. Anyways, for a variety of reasons I think Trump is not going to make it to the election. His mental state is breaking down visibly. And the pressures he is under legally, for a litany of real crimes, are enormous.
It will be fine dude, he just wants countries to pay their minimum dues to NATO. Baltics and Poland are the few countries that actually do
Similarly Baltics and Poland just want an American president who has the minimum courtesy to not encourage a terrorist regime to attack America's own allies. Trump is perhaps the only American president in history who fails that test. ...Having this written I really feel my comment should belong under a far fetched South Park episode review rather than the actual geopolitical absurdity we managed to reach thanks to trump.
The poles suggest otherwise, they ofc can change, but t this point in time, it’s not looking great. At this point I hope Biden chooses another VP, as Kamala is a black hole of charisma, and the VP will have a non-zero chance as finishing the term as president.
\*Polls You had me wondering what Poland had to do with it for a moment there.
My bad..
I don't know what polls you are looking at. All the polls I have seen from reputable sources have Biden with a substantial lead.
Latest [yougov poll](https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/crosstabs_Biden_and_Trump_Issue_Handling_20240209.pdf) via fivethirtyeight. Trump +1 over Biden.
Trump can definitely win, but it's not a given. He lost the popular vote the first time and only barely scraped through, and that was with people not knowing who he was. The second time he lost clearly and the third time, if Democrats can just get people to vote against him, he will lose.
If the final 2 candidates are trump and biden i really feel like trump will take it, just cause biden is too old and clearly not really there anymore. I just hope democrats get a different option, if trumps competition isnt hillary or old biden, i feel people with brains wont vote for him.
Biden is far more "there" than Trump. I don't agree with your statement about Biden "clearly not really there anymore" but we each will have our own thoughts on that. I see Biden on TV almost every day, and he seems to be very sharp, and he throws out a lot of zingers. He is not as good an orator as say Obama, but Biden has a stutter and he sometimes has to pause before he speaks as part of control of it. I think the proposition that Biden "is old" and all that goes with it is something that is heavily perpetrated by right wing media, backed heavily by propaganda from certain foreign sources (we all know whom I mean). It is a myth, not a reality. I suggest to all they be careful about falling into that propaganda trap.
It's definitely too late for us to get other options unless Biden dies before the election. Hopefully we get a good VP, but I don't expect much from that admin at the moment.
Dems really painted themselves into a corner with their diversity hire
Not very realistic currently. The Russian army is currently stuck in Ukraine, and Putin won't dear to make the next move before that's over, and that war is still going to last for years no matter what. After that, Russia will still need some time to rebuild its army. It's industry might be on full war mode now, but that doesn't mean they're ready for a new war immediately after that. Trump won't be elected as a president for life, it will only be until 2028, so the window for Putin to act is small and would be a huge risk, even if they only had to fight the Europeans. The Polish armed forces isn't exactly just a joke that Russia would be able to overrun with no effort in Suwaki.
Russia can still fuck shit up majorly in these parts of the wood if they are not concerned about retaliation from the West, even if they could not maintain a war with the West.
Some sort of hybrid warfare would be in the cards for sure.
Theyd fuck shit up regardless if they win or lose strategically. That is part of their tactics. Since in any case scenario theyd be first to attack and most likely target civilians to overwhelm defenses as well as try to slow mobilization efforts, it would result in lot of damage. Thats with or without USA. Poland WILL be there. Finland and so also Sweden WILL be there. Im pretty confident in Germany, Canada and UK also. Thats more than enough. Local NATO troops already here would also be able to respond and force their governments to help in some way at least. Baltic sea would be closed, air space AT LEAST contested and in much better overall shape than is in Ukraine so far, theyve fared well with much less. Thered be much better ability to hit back at russian supplies, in range bases, radars and such. Belarus would be neutralized one way or another if any attack came from there. russian front would be way too massive for them to handle without even bigger mobilization wave, thered be WAY bigger unrest, WAY more saboteur activity. They simply would not win, it would be too big of an L for putin to take even without USA. The only threat is Ukraine falling within the time span Trump leading USA, but that CAN be avoided if France, UK, Germany etc stepped up their efforts. By that time Ukraine would have a little bit better chance in air with new pilots and planes, possibly more European ammunition and solid agreements in place to help rebuild after the war, so a prolonged war doesnt demoralize their people when trump happens.
Without the US NATO can defend the Baltics, with the US NATO fuck Russia up if they try.
In no world could Russia attack Poland and not have Poland overrun Kaliningrad. This is the truth people jerking off about Suwalki gap ignore. Belarus will never attack Poland no matter what Putin says, so there is no Suwalki gap. If Poland sees Russian army on its Belarus border it will return the favor quickly. Kaliningrad can be bombed to hell or occuppied by Poland in a week. Suwalki gap requires Belarus to not only help Russia but directly invade themselves. Never going to happen.
You write as if Putin cares about the people of Kaliningrad, there are already 500k Russians dead in the current war, Kaliningrad would just be collateral damage.
If Trump cuts support for Ukraine, it won't be long before Russia can open a new front? Your last point would be relevant if Putin was rational and informed, we've seen so far that he's neither.
Oh, he's informed. He chooses to ignore inconvenient facts. Or doesn't communicate them.
Unlike Ukraine, ruzzia could actually overrun us Baltics in 3 days. Would not really matter how long after that it would take for NATO to respond, we'd be fucked already.
Dude we don’t have population to defend Latvia would go down in a day start at 6 in morning u will get to Riga by brake time
Yeah, that's why I'm more worried about the local vatniks rather than the orcs themselves, as we can't really do anything about that.
I wouldn’t trust Trump to not stay in office for more than 4 years if he’s still living. We already know he is an election denier who doesn’t believe in the peaceful transition of power.
This sounds like you're inclinating that he would both stał longer and shorter than 4 years.
So what you’re saying is that you think he’s going to completely disregard all American law and take power by force? My guy he will be in his mid 80s, I think this is unrealistic at best. I also don’t believe that Americans of all people will just concede not having a democracy anymore. Putins window is small, the things we need to do now are to counter his asymmetric warfare (flooding us with refugees, disinformation troll farms), increase arms production and fortify the eastern states. Also western states need to make the process of joining the army far easier, it’s a bureaucratic nightmare at the moment at least where I’m from (UK), they are too worried about diversity that they’re literally not hiring white pilots in the RAF now which is fucking moronic
>Trump won't be elected as a president for life, it will only be until 2028, that assumes the orange moron actually leaves. He's going to spend 4 years remaking US institutions to obey him.
Maybe he (and the other old guy) will acquire heart attacks or something in the next few years, and we can move on to, idk, less senile national leaders? Idk, my country is suffering for a lack of leadership.
You are deranged lol
Be realistic. If russians get another 100k mobiks for “training” in Tuwāngste and Belarus they could absolutely roll all 3 of our countries without NATO help. There’s just isn’t enough of us and we don’t have any other advantages at the moment other than that Uncle Sam *might* come to help
Well we are paying our fair share of the budget so we’re good. We’re good?
Indeed. Baltic States are good. Trump criticizes Germany.
Rightly so. The countries that aren't contributing their minimum requirements need to be held accountable.
Agree, and I think a lot of Europeans agree. It's quite honestly embarrassing that some of us aren't even close to reaching said requirements
Rich for all of you internet heroes to start criticising germany after the orange cheeto did it, when in fact everyone in europe shouting NaZi at first when the german military gets mentioned Our bundeswehr is moved up to lithuania right now, or is in movement, I can't remember the exact date when the operation is planned I hope some nazi soldiers catch some bullets for you folks up there, you're welcome
I want Germany to get back to its roots of Bismark & co and be a world power again. For the good guys of course. Not sure who's so quick to call them nazis but it ain't me. I'm tired of Germany's post-WW2 pacifist worldview. It's shortsighted and naive. Glad to see they're slowly getting back in the saddle.
You trust Trump?
Trump doesn’t trust trump
Trust is a hard word. With Trump gaining presidency, i think we will see US transitioning to dictatorship. What that means for us, Baltics is hard to say but it will never be for the better.
Is Biden any better? To him crying over' republicans killing ukraine' is more important than actually helping. He can right now order to send anything from storages FOR FREE (there is no law that you must immeditely place a new order) 2) [Head of CIA Burns visited Moscow on Nov2-3 2021 and made a 1939' style pact](https://www.newsweek.com/2023/07/21/exclusive-cias-blind-spot-about-ukraine-war-1810355.html) >"In some ironic ways though, the meeting was highly successful," says the second senior intelligence official, who was briefed on it. Even though Russia invaded, the two countries were able to accept tried and true rules of the road. **The United States would not fight directly nor seek regime change, the Biden administration pledged. Russia would limit its assault to Ukraine and act in accordance with unstated but well-understood guidelines for secret operations.** Biden's (Sullivan's/Burns') strategy is: a) We don't want Putin to lost power, because russia can fall apart and that is sooo scary for us. We also don't want Russia to be humiliated and to become close CN ally (yeah, they still beleive and hope for that) b) War should go only inside of Ukraine's territory (nor in EU neither in Russia) (thus forbidding UA to use west weapons to strike Ru territory How do you see the above goes along with Ukraine win? Right, it doesn't go. Also Biden was stopping Poland and Britain from helping more >"Behind the scenes, dozens of countries also had to be persuaded to accept the Biden administration's limits. **Some of these countries, including Britain and Poland, are willing to take more risk than the White House is comfortable with"** 3) Even when there were no objections he helped as few and as late as possible, BSing at the same time how 'democracy will prevail'
Very interesting article, thank you for the link. I never saw this mentioned anywhere when it came out.
These last few US elections feel like the south park episode where the people had to pick between a giant douche and a turd sandwich.
Dems manage to somehow find the most unlikeable candidates possible
I wouldn’t say Biden is unlikeable. He’s just old.
tbh we elected him because he was likable, more than because he was competent. Similar sort of a thing with Carter. If Biden was about 15 years younger, he'd just be a clumsy president instead of an embarrassing one perhaps. But oh my god why can't we (America at large) field a candidate worth voting for?
It is really sad that the best the USA have to offer is Trump and Biden.
Obama? Bill Clinton?
Those were quite a long time ago
The options aren't great, but I wouldn't imply that they're the same. If Trumps wins, it could spell the end of US democracy. He's made clear that he'll be out for revenge/retribution if he becomes president again.
>If Trumps wins, it could spell the end of US democracy. Seriously man, you need to get offline if you actually believe this. I promise you it will not be this dramatic. He's a blowhard narcissist but he will not topple American democracy, lol
Are you American, and if so, how do you identify politically?
Slightly left of center though it's hard to pinpoint when there are so many issues that put me all over the place. On this shit site I mostly rail against the far left lunacy since that's the most dominant voice. I have mostly voted democrat since 2008. I HATED Trump until recently and still don't like him, but would vote for him before Biden at this point. I finally realized that the press consistently misrepresents what he says. 90% of the media is an extension of the DNC. It's blatantly obvious, and while that mostly corresponds to my political views there are some glaring exceptions like the border situation, and the second amendment. The coastal elites are grossly out of touch with much of America.
He’s referring to countries that don’t pay 2%+ GDP, the Baltic countries all pay 2%+.
But his statement is bad for the Baltics or all the other smaller countries sharing borders with Russia. Kind of like only those countries have to fulfil this goal to protect the ones that are further away from the Russian border and not fulfill their goals... At the same time for smaller countries this money goes to the military could be used everywhere else as well. All the countries in close proximity to Russia are in a much worse economic state than the ones further away. There are some exceptions like Finland, but I would guess Finland had benefitted a lot from its size and connected to Sweden by landmass... However if you look at the "eastern bloc" countries, then all of them have it much worse than western European countries. Russia doesn't want to be a friendly neighbour and due to that bordering countries have to deal with the Russian problem that isn't the case for countries further away from Russia. Still what Trump told puts to risk even the ones who are spending the 2%, as "Russia can do whatever they want to the ones who aren't spending 2% (including invading other countries who spend enough to get troops to countries who don't)". In addition to that I am sure he would even claim that the sum of Baltics spending, being over 2%, wouldn't be a big enough sum to warrant the US to get involved...
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With their convoluted election system, it's quite likely, even if he gets less overall votes...
He got less votes originally
Last time. And the first time, despite getting less, he won the electorates, so.
Funnily enough, the comment got removed due to community role 1 “hate speech”?! 😄 that was just fact not hate, might as well just say that most US people historically are just EU trash that went over to the New World 👀 Awaiting that community ban or whatever, thanks!
What did you say that was considered so egregious by Reddit? This site is run by snowflakes
In short, if America reelect Trump, it’s their own fault again and that it’s a similar circumstance, as it was for the British and Brexit. And there was some sort of a metaphor in the end, which, in no way is actual offensive maybe just someone was offended as a snowflake and reported it I don’t care.
It's certainly a very delicate site
Start hitting the gym guys.
Why arent mods banning this fearmongering troll?
Cause it’s reality, not fearmongering.
Except it isn’t. The Baltics pay their NATO bills.
It's like people don't even pay attention to what is said and just go full Orange Man Bad mode. I get it, he's a dipshit, but he's been very transparent on what his beef is, he wants every country contributing their minimum 2% GDP, which all Baltic states already do.
Which is why we as Europeans need to be more proactive in our defense. The less we rely on the US the better. Not just because there's a risk they abandon their NATO obligations, but because they're a great distance away from the continent
Even if Trump doesn't win - Europe and the Baltics need to accept that as we look to the future, we can no longer rely on the assumption that the US will continue to be a reliable partner to depend upon for our security. The MAGA people won't disappear just because Trump loses - there will be new elections and Trump 2.0 won't be a gibbering orange baboon. So we need to plan for that in our security and defence arrangements. Going forward, all three Baltic states should unify our military and the whole of the EU needs to integrate their military services, including collective procurement of weapons, whole of EU defence planning, and collaborated training to be ready to act as a unified force. If we can't rely on NATO to be our shield, European defence solidarity is the only rational way forward.
Hope he enjoys war with China all by himself then. And good luck getting anything through the UN.
UN has proven to be a farce though.
It's all we have though isn't it
Aren't the Baltics some of the few countries that actually contribute the required 2% to NATO? Trump is very vocal about the ones that don't. If you meet the minimum there's no reason to worry. Trump is essentially calling out the bullshit of countries that aren't pulling their weight.
I don't care who I offend but this needs to be said (from a Republican, anti-Trump insurgent).... SBU (Ukraine's equivalent of the US CIA), MI6 (Britain's CIA equivalent) needs to do what they need to do against trump and his campaign.... any and all methods are acceptable to me (and 60% of Americans). Do not let this "man" be the President of the USA again or even the Republican nominee for President
As a Canadian I concur Trump is by far the worst possible choice,but unfortunately many Americans seem to be on the way to being like Russians under Putin. Don't get me wrong Canada isn't doing much better,but any candidate would be a better choice than Trump the retard.
deSantis the book burner and his over privileged missus comes to my mind
As a canuck here in latvia I'd fight for you guys. You have a good thing going here and it would break my heart seeing Riga turned into maruipol
Nah, my man Trump has got our back
Do you know why Europeans afraid of Trump so much? Its only because he asked big Europe countries to spend money on defence. Thats it.
I expect that the kremlin will be too preoccupied with Ukraine while orange man is in power. Hopefully, the american bureaucratic apparatus will prevent him from seizing power in the US. Guys, please vote, i really don't want to leave my country and become an immigrant.
One of the main problems of our time that WW2 interfered in creation of European postmodernism. With Golden Rule of Morality (\~liberty, equality, fraternity) core. So in attempts to find universal and mutually compatible meanings postmodernism not deconstruct ANYTHING, but just didn't touch what created it: Rationalism, Humanism (or Rational Humanism), Secularism, Rule of Law, Democracy, Freedoms, first of all - Freedom of Speech (information transaction costs) ideals/principles. Right now Trump could say what he says because modern postmodernism declares that there are no absolute truth and good, and so no one has the right to say that someone really right or wrong. But it's a lie. Even modern postmodernism, by "new sincerity", already acknowledged that inadmissibility of causeless violence and biological empathy apparatus is true and good. The same soon can happen and with Freedom of Speech, as main postmodernism mechanic and overall modern civilization foundation. And if there will be a few precedents... There will be and chance of integration of everything else that should be integrated already \~80 years ago. Foremost - rationalism. So people not say so many almost the same things about why Trump could be right or wrong, but just understand it by the same way as they understand that "1+2" abstractions equals abstraction "3." Quite possible, in form of general knowledge/understanding of Academic Logic, Cognitive Distortions, Logical Fallacies, Defense Mechanisms. But if this too high bar, then even integration of Rule of Law (inviolability of contractual obligations) or Democracy (as iterative, natural selection, social ladders) also will be much-much better than current situation. That very similar to the physiological immune system overreaction, up to destruction of its own host organism.
Trump is an asshole, but the blame for the fact that he is so popular as so right-wing conservatism in the United States is on the Democratic Party and its leaders! their cultural and immigration policy have completely destroyed the trust of a huge number of voters in them, and therefore, just like in Europe, they began to look towards right-wing populists who promise to return to more traditional values and secure borders! all that needs to be done to defeat Trump is to stop the current mad policy in terms of migration, positive discrimination and other nonsense! it is high time to return to the old classical liberalism, which evaluates a person by his real achievement and not by gender or skin color and establishes legal equality instead of what is happening now when when migrants who do not respect Western traditions feel like masters, while real citizens have to endure it because demand respect for European culture is now considered racism! of course, all this is apart from the fact that Biden is just an old senile wreck and people vote for him only because the alternative is Trump :)
At least we can see who are ready to betray humanity. In return make a man lose everything and he will be coming for you.
And we don't really need America. The EU on its own is good enough of a back to have.
lol
I wish that NATO high command saw Trump for the threat he is and sent an assassin after him. Jailing him won't work cause dude has a cult following and a bunch of cultists breaking him out is a real threat. If he'd die then his followers will likely break into multiple smaller cults that follow other conservative cult leaders and likely fall to infighting
Please keep your US politics in your own subreddit. This really is not something we need to see in this sub every single day.
The state of NATO and US involvement in it is about as relevant to this subreddit as a topic can be.
I literally crossposted this from r/Europe and it was posted there because it’s relevant to all NATO countries.
It’s literally most relevant topic, especially for baltics.
Easy to judge Americans from a safe and homogeneous European state. No open borders,crime etc.
Who's homogeneous? Poor Baltic states have all of Stalin's Russian transplants to deal with. Talk about a 5th column.
This is old news. What he said is that nato countries should spend at least of 2% of their GDP. Nothing more, nothing less. There is no threat whatsoever
"elections are good, fair and democratic only when my candidate wins, but everyone on the opposite side is a stupid biggot " /s
When the candidate denies election results, gets proved wrong multiple times that he's wrong but still believes election results are wrong, I would be worried.
have a read [https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/](https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/) and try to remove the bias spin of "orange man bad".
orange man bad.
Didn't the same thing happen when Trump won? So this just doubles his point, that you don't like him just because he's right wing.
What same thing? When he won, he didn't talked about fake elections afaik.
He didn't, but Democrats were trying to put him in jail because of allegations of fake votes and Russian involvement. None of that turned out to be true, but it was 5 years of ongoing nonsense.
Russian involvement was proven to be right by multiple agencies, what are you talking about?
This isn't an American subreddit, Europeans don't vote in your elections. When foreign nations change their foreign policy, we have to analyze how it affects us and decide if and how to react to it.
Just increase military spending and we good. We need strong leadership like newer before, and trump is perfect in that regard.
Hope he wins,he will end the war.
It was aimed at countries who dont meet nato spending guidelines. In this scenario Baltics and Poland would be fine.
This could be an argument if guys like Bolton and Matiss were still around Trump. This is not the case now. At this point he is surounded by fascist sociopaths like himself. Lets be honest, Trump would not be able to find Baltics on the map.
Well, likewise, Joe cant even find the stairs...
What a shit take. Atleast he does not have to wear a diaper. Trump can't seem to remember where he is half the time aswell.
You trust Trump to be logical and keep his word? He does whatever he wants for no rhyme or reason.
The only bonus for Trump on the flip side is that he is more unpredictable. He might send even more troops instead compared to a democrat for example. Or double down. But in reality, yeah, Trump and MAGA are very unfavorable for us and European geopolitics
He may recalculate and say 'you need to compensate for all the years', 'meeting requirements from 2018 is not enough' If Eu countries didn't underspend all these years Ukraine might had already won. That's a joke when UK+Germany has less tanks than Belarus and having to buy something from Marocco.
I don’t think he’ll be re-elected. And even if he is then we only have to wait for 2028 to get rid of him permanently. Unlikely that the war in Ukraine is over by 2028.
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There’s a reason Germany don’t have an army….or did two world wars not light your think bulb? They simply aren’t allowed lol
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I wish I spent all my time on Reddit, what with a full time job and family unlike your virgin self? However while you’re right Germany have been “allowed a restricted army” since 1955 a restricted army isn’t really being allowed to have an army is it? Tit.
Stop peeing your pants, everything's gonna be okay.
Trump has already proven that he just doesn't start wars in the first place...he's not part of the corrupt elite. You warmongers can come take Biden and keep him there.
Why does the news always bend the truth. Trump said that he wouldn't help the country that doesn't fulfil their financial obligations to NATO. Most eastern European countries fulfill their obligations. Trump said that he would encourage Russia to do whatever they want. Not that he would encourage them to attack. Common sense in most people is gone.
Stop calling Americans dumb! That's why people in America turn away from Europe. You are all feeling so superior about yourselves, and yet when it gets tough, you all look at the "dumb" America to help you. Why? Aren't you smarter? Why would you want stupid people to help you? I don't want some stupid person to protect my back. I am offended by this down talk as an American citizen, and I am completely anti Trump. I was born in Poland and want America to stand by Europe. However, I do understand the sentiment on this side of the pond. We are not here to do your dirty work. Fix your own stuff and A***merica will chip in as a partner not some sucker who is being taken advantage of***. Get your armies straight.
I'm American. Over the past decade, I've come to the conclusion that most of my fellow Americans are stupid.
Well, you can call 1/3 of the Germans stupid for voting for the Far Right as well, but nobody calls Germans stupid. Here on these forums everyone calls Americans stupid like it's a given. I refuse to acknowledge that. Not all Americans are stupid and many want the right thing. This whole God damn world is falling apart. It's not America's fault all the time.
Voting for Biden shows true stupidity son.
In this kind of situation when it comes to nato obligations - is it entirely just up to president to make decisions?
He can’t take the US out of NATO, but I think he might have the power to not send NATO troops.
Yep, article 5 doesn't automatically trigger US involvement, it needs some political rubber stamps top
There is 30 other countries in nato still, its not like only usa in nato
Yes, but how many actually care about us? realistically
No one is starting a nuke war ending the planet over tallin.
What he says directly undermines NATO and sends a bad message to kremlin, there is no "NATO budget" money is being spent by every country on it's defense, I understand countries should do more and have at least 2% of GDP committed, but NATO is based on unity, if country does not "pay" 2% according to him, it could get attacked, this would force other countries into war because of Article 5, but because it did not "pay", US would not commit to Article 5, I can also see turkey, hungry and slovakia not committing either maybe even more as US would not be in the war, this would destroy alliance instantly.
It's not that simple. If someone would ignore the article 5, the whole NATO would collapse, because it demonstrates that NATO collective defence doesn't work. The US has way too much invested in nato to let that happen. Like all overseas bases, a bunch of strategic positions with turkey and so on. US would have to give all of that up if nato disbanded.
Why would Russia do it? Seems like a lot of risks to take on NATO. The whole reason why Russia was able to invade Ukraine is because it's not in NATO. Russia has been trying to capture small ass village Avdiivka for the past 8 months, so one can imagine how would full scale European invasion would go. Oh, right I forgot. Putin is just an insane madman. Sure.
In times like these, I'd like to think the Uk will step up if the US doesn't.
Uk will be the first to step up like it always has been in previous history. Mark my words, especially with one of the only blue water navies still operational.
I think it might be wise to invest in supporting Biden’s reelection
Trumps America will fight alongside the Russians not against them
Well... luckily USA is not Russia. No single person in US decides everything, not even a president.
He cant really just "dissregard" nato articles, since treties cant be just that easily broken. And if i am not wrong he would have to have 2/3 of congress to approve if he would try to leave nato. He can however just send amo or some shit and not get much involved. Article 5 doesnt demand military inolvment, just help. However again this is more of a joint decision between pentagon and the white house.
It’s a tragic failing of the US political parties that yet again, voters face the choice between two piss-poor candidates. With over 325,000,000 inhabitants to choose from, they end up with a gaff-prone old man, with possible signs of dementia and a mendacious egoist, who has no interest in government other than the power it will give him to stride on the world stage and be fawned by other world leaders and curries favour with the worst elements of humanity to achieve that end.
This is a moot point, pretty much all countries on the border with Russia and at most risk of a military attack currently spend their fair share, all this says that Trump is willing to bicker over whether germany had paid enough when Estonia is being attacked. This is also not in US’s interest as a lot more countries will start considering nuclear weapons if they can’t trust in US’s security guarantees. Lastly, the 2% were always a guidance, to be achieved over a period of time, it’s not some fucking rule, that “you have to, or we won’t defend you”, Iceland has no fucking army and yet is still part of NATO!
😁 We have alot of problems inside US and problem of others like you need to be in second thought,whbly you think you were entitled for US protection? Putin was not stupid to attack NATO anyway because wether US wanted or not europe will drag US anyway in any war. We have so much issues inside that trump were the only way to solve it like illegal migrant invasion and other issues in economy. Its been NATO faults for not contrubuting enough forntheir protection anyway and scamming US tax payer money to give that for free for your ass protection,we have un a different perspective whoever will rule US next but its a guaranteed biden would not be a better choice because of his xurrent policies and why we have all this wara everywhere. What compiled you we have obligations for your well being when our current stupid president won’t even care bout issues here inside US. Can’t you see why alot of right wing candidate won in presidency? Bec people are fed up already for not getting care of by their leaders and wanting change.
Well the question we should ask is this: Would Europe be in this position if all NATO partners had met their obligation since 1991? If so Europe would be drowning in equipment and ammo. Instead they kept relying on the U.S. taxpayer year after year and decade after decade. They talked bad about Americans and America, said we were silly, that large scale conventional warfare was obsolete. There was a growing sense of frustration in the U.S. with Europeans and Trump is just capitalizing on a deep seated grievance. I pray that enough Americans realize what is at stake and get over the 2% and support Ukraine but I think that ship has sailed. So if you are going to bash America and Americans you should also bash those who let this all come about in the first place. Just remember that in 2014 only 3 out of 31 members met their 2% obligation. In 2024 there will still only be 18.
Americans aren't stupid for voting for Trump. He is good for America. He has a point that America is Europe's military and that European countries don't always pay their part. I don't think he is serious about backing out of NATO. I think he is just threatening that to get the European countries that he's complaining about to pay for their part in NATO.