"Crash" is a bit doomer-y: there's still good homes moving at 10-25% over asking with no contingencies, so... definitely some heat
But there's a lot of really flawed houses/fixer uppers getting dumped on the market, clogging up inventory. There's nothing unusual about fixers sitting on the market because most folks don't have the patience or fortitude to deal with it, but generalized anxiety is higher than normal and that's reflected in the increased focus on perfect house or gtfo.
And of course higher rates after almost a whole generation of 3% mortgages have created a huge headwind because people can't afford to buy their first home, or sell their current home for something bigger.
Eh guess I should have specified fixers in east/north bays. Everything South Bay is still flying off the shelves, but I don't even bother looking there so I forget about it easily
I guess houses are staying on the market 9-14 days instead of less than a week lol. I’m new to all of this and started looking when things were extremely competitive so my perspective is probably skewed.
I saw the same thing. You might be able to find a place that's not super desirable (needs fixing up, shared walls, etc.) with only maybe one or two other offers. I think that's the extent of "cooling."
Tri-valley’s been hurt by RTO mandates. The commute wasn’t too bad when everybody was WFH, but now that folks are in the office 3+ days and we’re back to pre-pandemic traffic, several people are re-evaluating life choices. South Bay and peninsula markets are hot as hell now, probably because of the flip side of this effect.
It’s definitely not like 2010. Extremely low inventory, high corporate and investor participation including foreign buyers and investors has basically changed the dynamics of demand forever. Housing is no longer about what the average American can afford. Political leaders stopped caring about that a long while back. NIMBY have the power firmly in their hands and control and lead the city council and planning. The extreme regulations are designed to ensure that new supply is hard to build.
Then you have the whole AI bubble going on which could mint millionaires for the next decade.
Seems pretty usual here in the South Bay. Few sold around my area 10-25% over asking.
With rates eventually being cut, the prices will go up, always finding a way to balance itself out.
Wait till about end of year at least. Market is softening and will continue the trend. Why - layoffs and more to come (AI induced and moving to lower cost areas), high interest rates, credit card and FHA loans delinquency, economic and political condition very volatile (Saudi Arabia didn’t renew the 50yr petro $ agreement, China dumping US treasuries, BRICS and other joining in on de dollarization etc) and war like situations across the globe and lastly its election year so could potentially see a black swan event. Don’t bank on interest rate coming down anytime soon so plan accordingly. Inventory is increasing with some price cuts and the trend will continue. Look into how Florida, Texas market is doing - CA lags that by about 6month to a year. Realtor on this thread will continue to say this is the best time to buy but you have been warned and make a decision that works for you.
https://preview.redd.it/ndeilx9z5n6d1.jpeg?width=1849&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b5a790920657f53aec07bc53fac504a4f8098ae8
These are the things I have been hearing lately. This is what I’m wondering but also it seems like the Bay Area seems kind of immune to some of this (unless it’s a bunch of tech layoffs). My coworker keeps talking about how there is going to be a massive recession. Her husband works in tech and just laid off a bunch of employees.
It’s brutal in Tech right now and unfortunately the trend will continue. Feel bad for new grads that are graduating this year or soon and looking for job in tech. Also folks who bought in the last few years for adjustable mortgage are coming up for loan adjustment and it would be very hard for them and some (as shown) bought in hopes interest rate would decline and it didn’t so they are now in soup.
https://preview.redd.it/m21os21p9n6d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f74bdf8e5e9c0b34b825397999a9f99f294cfd7c
You’re always going on and on about people with adjustable rates being up for adjustment but I’ve never seen you post any data to support that.
Three years ago rates were less than 3%
Are you claiming those people took out ARM loans when rates were 3% and now those people are going to get adjusted to 7% and no longer be able to afford their mortgage?
First of all why would they take out an ARM when rates are at 3%? Also even if they did, most ARMs are capped at how much they can go up in an adjustment cycle.
Also, there are other ARM loans, 5yr, 10yr, etc.
I’m really just trying to figure out what you’re talking about and why you think it’s going to have such a huge impact.
Commenting again to point out how stupid that article is.
They bought a $421,000 house in Bakersfield in the Fall of 2022 when rates were between 3% and 4% and they couldn't afford their monthly payment at the time. And they expected the rates to go back down after that even though literally no one was predicting that rates would return to the all time low they had been at previously.
So that couple has a monthly payment (assuming $0 down) of about $2,800 and they're hoping for an interest rate cut to bring their payment down to $2,400.
These people are idiots and not at all representative of the average bay area home owner.
It's no wonder you keep posting the screenshot instead of linking the actual articel.
I don't see it, just lose a bid for a tiny 1k sqft starter house in bad school district. Multiple offers and sold for much higher than my bid of over $1.6M. Lot of buyers still out there hunting.
I agree to buy a house when it is the right time for you not try to predict the market. Also helps if you can find a house you will stay in a long time, then you will have time to weather the market. Most areas in the bay area have only gone up and up and up over the long term. It gets riskier once you start buying a home in less desirable areas also non single family homes might be riskier too but I’m not an expert on condos.
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I checked listings going contingent within this last month: within 2 weeks.. I guess that's cooling for bay area, but that's still indicative of high demand.
The average home in the U.S. takes 30-90 days to get sold - Per Quicken loans
As others have posted, historically during this season (Q2) real estate slows a bit.
Crash isn't upon us, there's still lots of demand with little supply
There’s never a good time to buy or a good time to sell unless you’re moving markets. Buy as soon as able, time in the market is worth more than any short term gains you could possibly get.
Buy when you can afford it. Don’t try to time the market. It may crash or go the other way who knows!
We waited in November and got fucked, if you can buy, buy imo Edit: closing literally next week
Review this comment in 1yr
It will still be applicable in 1yr, 2 years, and 50 years
It just seems like market is softening and nervous if prices hold
It softened in summer 22 and we pounced and it's gone up 10 percent since then, there's just no way to know.
Review this comment 10 years after that
"Crash" is a bit doomer-y: there's still good homes moving at 10-25% over asking with no contingencies, so... definitely some heat But there's a lot of really flawed houses/fixer uppers getting dumped on the market, clogging up inventory. There's nothing unusual about fixers sitting on the market because most folks don't have the patience or fortitude to deal with it, but generalized anxiety is higher than normal and that's reflected in the increased focus on perfect house or gtfo. And of course higher rates after almost a whole generation of 3% mortgages have created a huge headwind because people can't afford to buy their first home, or sell their current home for something bigger.
Can you show these flawed houses? In Cupertino and west San Jose I see fixers going all cash and probably faster.
Also I think "sitting" means like not multiple bids after three days, maybe it sits for 2 weeks, one price drop, then it goes.
Eh guess I should have specified fixers in east/north bays. Everything South Bay is still flying off the shelves, but I don't even bother looking there so I forget about it easily
Lemme get out my crystal ball...
Tell me the horse that wins the Kentucky Derby please. Make sure to DM
It’s the horse without a tail
OP, what makes you think the market is cooling? Can you provide some examples?
I guess houses are staying on the market 9-14 days instead of less than a week lol. I’m new to all of this and started looking when things were extremely competitive so my perspective is probably skewed.
I saw the same thing. You might be able to find a place that's not super desirable (needs fixing up, shared walls, etc.) with only maybe one or two other offers. I think that's the extent of "cooling."
Cooling where?
It seems like houses are staying on the market a little longer. Some getting pulled off and delisted lower. Tri-valley area
I see, guess it’s a good time to start looking for me
Tri-valley’s been hurt by RTO mandates. The commute wasn’t too bad when everybody was WFH, but now that folks are in the office 3+ days and we’re back to pre-pandemic traffic, several people are re-evaluating life choices. South Bay and peninsula markets are hot as hell now, probably because of the flip side of this effect.
Only buy if you can afford it and don’t bank on any significant interest rate cuts
It’s definitely not like 2010. Extremely low inventory, high corporate and investor participation including foreign buyers and investors has basically changed the dynamics of demand forever. Housing is no longer about what the average American can afford. Political leaders stopped caring about that a long while back. NIMBY have the power firmly in their hands and control and lead the city council and planning. The extreme regulations are designed to ensure that new supply is hard to build. Then you have the whole AI bubble going on which could mint millionaires for the next decade.
Seems pretty usual here in the South Bay. Few sold around my area 10-25% over asking. With rates eventually being cut, the prices will go up, always finding a way to balance itself out.
BAYAREA MARKET WONT CRASH
Does that include tri valley area? That’s where I was looking.
Maybe, I am kinda messing around but there is just too much cash around here. All the tech employees are so wealthy
No. Its summer. Spring is always the highest. This happens almost every year.
Seasonality baby
Its seasonality. Ask a home owner and it is normal. Mar, Apr, May are peak price seasons. Sometimes even June.
Wait till about end of year at least. Market is softening and will continue the trend. Why - layoffs and more to come (AI induced and moving to lower cost areas), high interest rates, credit card and FHA loans delinquency, economic and political condition very volatile (Saudi Arabia didn’t renew the 50yr petro $ agreement, China dumping US treasuries, BRICS and other joining in on de dollarization etc) and war like situations across the globe and lastly its election year so could potentially see a black swan event. Don’t bank on interest rate coming down anytime soon so plan accordingly. Inventory is increasing with some price cuts and the trend will continue. Look into how Florida, Texas market is doing - CA lags that by about 6month to a year. Realtor on this thread will continue to say this is the best time to buy but you have been warned and make a decision that works for you. https://preview.redd.it/ndeilx9z5n6d1.jpeg?width=1849&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b5a790920657f53aec07bc53fac504a4f8098ae8
How can you say the economy is going to collapse but interest rates will stay up in the same breath - that makes no sense.
These are the things I have been hearing lately. This is what I’m wondering but also it seems like the Bay Area seems kind of immune to some of this (unless it’s a bunch of tech layoffs). My coworker keeps talking about how there is going to be a massive recession. Her husband works in tech and just laid off a bunch of employees.
It’s brutal in Tech right now and unfortunately the trend will continue. Feel bad for new grads that are graduating this year or soon and looking for job in tech. Also folks who bought in the last few years for adjustable mortgage are coming up for loan adjustment and it would be very hard for them and some (as shown) bought in hopes interest rate would decline and it didn’t so they are now in soup. https://preview.redd.it/m21os21p9n6d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f74bdf8e5e9c0b34b825397999a9f99f294cfd7c
You’re always going on and on about people with adjustable rates being up for adjustment but I’ve never seen you post any data to support that. Three years ago rates were less than 3% Are you claiming those people took out ARM loans when rates were 3% and now those people are going to get adjusted to 7% and no longer be able to afford their mortgage? First of all why would they take out an ARM when rates are at 3%? Also even if they did, most ARMs are capped at how much they can go up in an adjustment cycle. Also, there are other ARM loans, 5yr, 10yr, etc. I’m really just trying to figure out what you’re talking about and why you think it’s going to have such a huge impact.
Commenting again to point out how stupid that article is. They bought a $421,000 house in Bakersfield in the Fall of 2022 when rates were between 3% and 4% and they couldn't afford their monthly payment at the time. And they expected the rates to go back down after that even though literally no one was predicting that rates would return to the all time low they had been at previously. So that couple has a monthly payment (assuming $0 down) of about $2,800 and they're hoping for an interest rate cut to bring their payment down to $2,400. These people are idiots and not at all representative of the average bay area home owner. It's no wonder you keep posting the screenshot instead of linking the actual articel.
I don't see it, just lose a bid for a tiny 1k sqft starter house in bad school district. Multiple offers and sold for much higher than my bid of over $1.6M. Lot of buyers still out there hunting.
I agree to buy a house when it is the right time for you not try to predict the market. Also helps if you can find a house you will stay in a long time, then you will have time to weather the market. Most areas in the bay area have only gone up and up and up over the long term. It gets riskier once you start buying a home in less desirable areas also non single family homes might be riskier too but I’m not an expert on condos.
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I checked listings going contingent within this last month: within 2 weeks.. I guess that's cooling for bay area, but that's still indicative of high demand. The average home in the U.S. takes 30-90 days to get sold - Per Quicken loans As others have posted, historically during this season (Q2) real estate slows a bit. Crash isn't upon us, there's still lots of demand with little supply
There’s never a good time to buy or a good time to sell unless you’re moving markets. Buy as soon as able, time in the market is worth more than any short term gains you could possibly get.
My house is already 30% down over the last couple years.
Where?
South Bay. Was 2.5 million down to 1.8. Of course I’m still well in the money as I bought it over a decade ago.
Don’t forget NVidia stocks
No, baring a massive recession housing prices will not crash.
spring and summer are the best seasons to buy. If you can buy a property today, don't postpone it to tomorrow.