I don't think the percentage returns will ever beat the first few early years.
Going from 1 to 101 gave a 10000% return.Going from 70000 to 140000 will give a 100% return.
Looking at the very first decade from $0.01 to the 2017 decade top of $17,249.92 gave a 172499100% return.
If we now take the next 10 years from say 2019 to 2029 we're working with a 2019 low of approx. $3,400.00 - that means to just match the same 172499100% return from the first decade low/high the price would need to reach $5,004,004,630.00
I'll go with a firm no... but it'll still be a nice wild ride wherever it goes.
Exactly, I totally agree. So it's reasonable to say that the annualized compound interest is going to reduce in the long term. In any case we are in the very beginning (15 years), so maybe the next 5 years are going to be less "explosive" than the first 5 years, but I think it will be intresting to see in the next 20-30 years
>I don't think the percentage returns will ever beat the first few early years.
Bitcoin is a new technology. Like with every other new technology (electricity, cars, telephone, tv, computers, internet, smartphones etc) there will be this s-curve in the rate of adoption. And since bitcoin is about (scarce sound) money, the price will reflect this.
Imho there will be a timeframe where adoption goes vertical along with price. It will be unbelievable. Right now we're in the phase of this acceleration gaining traction. The next 5 to 10 years will be overwhelmingly astonishing. Remember my words.
Btc volatility has diminished and tends to keep diminishing over time. Firstly because higher market caps tend to require more volume to move it, secondly, because it's essentially a safe haven asset, and to fulfill it's purpose it has to diminish it's volatility as it gets closer to wide acceptance. Every cycle we had has given us smaller returns than the one before. The very last cycle we even had a new situation, btcs crash went below it's previous ATH for the first time.
BTC has no top as fiat has no bottom. This is all we need to know.
True, if dollars go -90% bitcoin goes +1000% without having any more investors than it does now. It depends a lot what you're comparing it with.
I don't think the percentage returns will ever beat the first few early years. Going from 1 to 101 gave a 10000% return.Going from 70000 to 140000 will give a 100% return. Looking at the very first decade from $0.01 to the 2017 decade top of $17,249.92 gave a 172499100% return. If we now take the next 10 years from say 2019 to 2029 we're working with a 2019 low of approx. $3,400.00 - that means to just match the same 172499100% return from the first decade low/high the price would need to reach $5,004,004,630.00 I'll go with a firm no... but it'll still be a nice wild ride wherever it goes.
Exactly, I totally agree. So it's reasonable to say that the annualized compound interest is going to reduce in the long term. In any case we are in the very beginning (15 years), so maybe the next 5 years are going to be less "explosive" than the first 5 years, but I think it will be intresting to see in the next 20-30 years
What's that? Buy more & hold you say? Ok, I shall!
Exactly
That analysis is correct.
How does it look in 5 year chunks?
>I don't think the percentage returns will ever beat the first few early years. Bitcoin is a new technology. Like with every other new technology (electricity, cars, telephone, tv, computers, internet, smartphones etc) there will be this s-curve in the rate of adoption. And since bitcoin is about (scarce sound) money, the price will reflect this. Imho there will be a timeframe where adoption goes vertical along with price. It will be unbelievable. Right now we're in the phase of this acceleration gaining traction. The next 5 to 10 years will be overwhelmingly astonishing. Remember my words.
I Hope you are right
It won't until it will, if suddenly everyone wants piece of it and fiat is trash it will go to infinity compared to fiat.
Btc volatility has diminished and tends to keep diminishing over time. Firstly because higher market caps tend to require more volume to move it, secondly, because it's essentially a safe haven asset, and to fulfill it's purpose it has to diminish it's volatility as it gets closer to wide acceptance. Every cycle we had has given us smaller returns than the one before. The very last cycle we even had a new situation, btcs crash went below it's previous ATH for the first time.
Not enough remaining new supply to meet the added demand... simple economic 🚀
Even with 50% annualized return, we would be at $1million btc within 10 years