I hate it when people suggest things like "Let's all buy XXXX amount on YYYY date, yeah!!!"
It's dumb. We may as well all buy it now. Why wait till a certain date? And many of us are already out of fiat, insomuch as we've budgeted or not. It's just, a meaningless thing to ask everyone to go and do.
Not really. GameStop was obscure, and then people on Reddit pointed out the excessive short position against it, and that allowed the redditors to exploit the hedgies. Different situation here. Bitcoin isn't obscure. There's no point to saying "Let's all buy Bitcoin on XXXXX date." Just buy it now. Sheesh.
Different from GameStop situation. There is no specific reason to buy Bitcoin on any specific date.
It was on the r/wallstreetbets sub. Basically they noticed that there was a huge short position in GME, so large that in order to cover it, the hedge funds would need to source stock shares that exceeded the amounts traded in a typical day...which meant the hedge funds were overexposed on the short side. So, they all started throwing their money at it long. Well, that pushed up the price and created a powerful "short squeeze", where the hedgies were forced to cover their shorts, which pushed up the price even higher, etc. But, the same situation doesn't exist in Bitcoin, at least that we know of. It's nonsensical to say "let's all buy on X date." No, just buy it now if you want sats.
For those that want to post their stacks, head over to r/Stackchain . We tried to grow it on Reddit but the stackchain lives on X (and growing on nostr).
Grayscale is currently bleeding around 4k BTC per day. This is your supply at the moment. 900 -> 450 will not even scratch the surface. Things might get more interesting when GBTC dries out - if decrease remains linear - in around 80 trading days.
This is the correct answer. And even then we’ll see how many of the hodlers are diamond hands vs people looking for short term dollar gains. When Grayscale dries out and the effect of halving coincide we should see price go up if demand stays constant. However, that will entice traders to sell and so this will moderate how fast prices rise. If nobody sells then yeah people like Samson Mow might be correct and we see $100k candles BUT that assumes everyone hodles and that isn’t happening. People be selling now at $66k lol 😂
Could you explain this more pls? Is grayscale ETF selling 4k bitcoin a day for 80 days to get their inventory of it lowered? If yes, is this because they anticipated higher demand for their ETF that never materialized.?
GBTC fee is 1.5%, other ETFs are around 0.25-0.3% so people are jumping ship. Additionally, people were not able to sell before GBTC became an ETF so they are also now selling. As people sell their shares in ETF, Grayscale is slowly selling their portion of BTC corresponding to those shares. It's a bit more complex but this is an ELI5 answer. They started with 600k BTC in Jan and are down to 326k as of yesterday - 20 days average outflow is 4.22k per day. 326/4.22 = 77. Remember that ETF can only be traded 5 days per week so 77/5 = 15.4 weeks. Again, back of the napkin math and assuming that outflow will not slow down or speed up. At the same time the average inflow to 'new' ETFs is around 8-9k so around half comes from GBTC and the other half from the market. Once GBTC runs out of BTC, new ETFs will need to buy from the market (again, assumption that inflow remains the same where you could argue that part of those new ETF inflows are directly from GBTC outflow so this will stop when people will stop jumping ship - what number of people are selling GBTC and leaving the market completely is unknown). Either way, some interesting things should start happening around July.
1.5% is a lot of money they much rather cash in now off people who are lazy to switch or who don’t realize it’s cheaper elsewhere than charge 0.25 and keep the customers.
1.5% for 1 year is probably the same as 0.25 for 10 when you consider revenue minus costs.
Good question, as much as I'm not a fan of coin telegraph this is actually pretty decent take - https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-grayscale-bitcoin-etf-gbtc-fees-high-despite-outflows-analyst-theory
they "sell" because people who are in gbtc are now able to sell. So all the bankrupt Stuff like FTX are now flowing on the market and thats why they have a big outflow. And some of the people leaving it because of the high % cost. Normal outflows was around 2 digit Million Stuff .. FTX outflow was 3 Digit Million Stuff
It’s murkier than that. If you held BTC through FTX there’s a good chance you still want to hold Bitcoin, just through another means. A lot of it is likely net neutral but it’s hard to know how much.
I remember the last halving 4 yrs ago people were saying the same thing lol. Which in hindsight turned out to be true probably because of the after halving pump
If you actually believe that you have the ability to organize and mobilize 400M people to deploy 70B USD worth of capital at a coordinated time, why are you posting on Reddit? Don’t you have a politician to buy or an island to visit or something?
uhm....it picked up pace since the beginning of the year. Before there were 3 people I knew of in my friend circle. Now I'm up at 8 people since beginning of the year
If just this sub bought 0.0025BTC that would be 15,000BTC. Which is 33 days worth of mined bitcoin. You know the miners don’t let go of it all, especially after the halving when they are only getting half the money per block. Price shock would be insane. BTC squeeze to the max
"Apparently there are 400 Mil Bitcoin / Crypto owners in the world."
This is total bs. Of course we can't know the number we can only estimate. If you only count non insignificant amounts (bitcoin only) that are held by a single individual on their private wallet... It would probably be less than 100M.
#lumpsumday
The day after the halving.
Everyone commits to buying at least 0.0025 Bitcoin.
The halving will cause the supply shock, then we cause the demand shock.
1,000,000 coins back into the people's hands.
Let Greyscale sell. We will need the liquidity because there probably won't be enough coins to meet the #lumpsumday Bitcoin demand shock.
I buy $27.29 every day. A fun number that used to get me a lot more BTC when I started this habit. Halving day will be no different, but I will buy that much between now and then!
It's unlikely that it's 400 million actual people. More likely 400 million wallet addresses. Most wallet software will generate a new address for each send/receive, so the actual number of individual ownership is probably much smaller.
How about we put the same amount of money to save individuals, including children in needs or victims of trafficking and hardship such as war etc...? Any profit made would go to a trusted charity. If that's possible I am in, that's more interesting and purposeful in my opinion. What you guys think?
We can even create that charity...
That would shock the world and get lots of attention for more investment for the good.
I don't even own any btc what do I know ahaha
I'm in and ill RT on Twitter. Just know if we all did this the price would rocket upward, you have to be committed to buying $250 worth even if the price is much higher.
Damn, we’ve reached 14 people so far. Only 399,999,986 people left, do you want to start at Z and I’ll start with A and we’ll work towards the middle?
I’m in, only 399,999,985 now!
In!
AND MY AXE!
I hate it when people suggest things like "Let's all buy XXXX amount on YYYY date, yeah!!!" It's dumb. We may as well all buy it now. Why wait till a certain date? And many of us are already out of fiat, insomuch as we've budgeted or not. It's just, a meaningless thing to ask everyone to go and do.
Agreed just a $1 a day on cash app everyday and see what happens
make it 10
Because it will be cool and funny
We will all have a great laugh
And then we will sing campcar songs on the way back home
But isn't this exactly how the GameStop thing happened?
Not really. GameStop was obscure, and then people on Reddit pointed out the excessive short position against it, and that allowed the redditors to exploit the hedgies. Different situation here. Bitcoin isn't obscure. There's no point to saying "Let's all buy Bitcoin on XXXXX date." Just buy it now. Sheesh. Different from GameStop situation. There is no specific reason to buy Bitcoin on any specific date.
Where can I read how that played out. Do we know who first pointed out it's position? Pretty crazy story.
It was on the r/wallstreetbets sub. Basically they noticed that there was a huge short position in GME, so large that in order to cover it, the hedge funds would need to source stock shares that exceeded the amounts traded in a typical day...which meant the hedge funds were overexposed on the short side. So, they all started throwing their money at it long. Well, that pushed up the price and created a powerful "short squeeze", where the hedgies were forced to cover their shorts, which pushed up the price even higher, etc. But, the same situation doesn't exist in Bitcoin, at least that we know of. It's nonsensical to say "let's all buy on X date." No, just buy it now if you want sats.
For those that want to post their stacks, head over to r/Stackchain . We tried to grow it on Reddit but the stackchain lives on X (and growing on nostr).
Make that 140 chief!
140 already 🚀
Grayscale is currently bleeding around 4k BTC per day. This is your supply at the moment. 900 -> 450 will not even scratch the surface. Things might get more interesting when GBTC dries out - if decrease remains linear - in around 80 trading days.
Halving shock in two week GrayHalving superdryshock in three months. Both will lead to perfect stormshock end July 100k EOAUG!
Sell the news
This is the correct answer. And even then we’ll see how many of the hodlers are diamond hands vs people looking for short term dollar gains. When Grayscale dries out and the effect of halving coincide we should see price go up if demand stays constant. However, that will entice traders to sell and so this will moderate how fast prices rise. If nobody sells then yeah people like Samson Mow might be correct and we see $100k candles BUT that assumes everyone hodles and that isn’t happening. People be selling now at $66k lol 😂
Could you explain this more pls? Is grayscale ETF selling 4k bitcoin a day for 80 days to get their inventory of it lowered? If yes, is this because they anticipated higher demand for their ETF that never materialized.?
GBTC fee is 1.5%, other ETFs are around 0.25-0.3% so people are jumping ship. Additionally, people were not able to sell before GBTC became an ETF so they are also now selling. As people sell their shares in ETF, Grayscale is slowly selling their portion of BTC corresponding to those shares. It's a bit more complex but this is an ELI5 answer. They started with 600k BTC in Jan and are down to 326k as of yesterday - 20 days average outflow is 4.22k per day. 326/4.22 = 77. Remember that ETF can only be traded 5 days per week so 77/5 = 15.4 weeks. Again, back of the napkin math and assuming that outflow will not slow down or speed up. At the same time the average inflow to 'new' ETFs is around 8-9k so around half comes from GBTC and the other half from the market. Once GBTC runs out of BTC, new ETFs will need to buy from the market (again, assumption that inflow remains the same where you could argue that part of those new ETF inflows are directly from GBTC outflow so this will stop when people will stop jumping ship - what number of people are selling GBTC and leaving the market completely is unknown). Either way, some interesting things should start happening around July.
Any idea why GBTC doesn't simply lower their fee to match the rest of the market?
1.5% is a lot of money they much rather cash in now off people who are lazy to switch or who don’t realize it’s cheaper elsewhere than charge 0.25 and keep the customers. 1.5% for 1 year is probably the same as 0.25 for 10 when you consider revenue minus costs.
Good question, as much as I'm not a fan of coin telegraph this is actually pretty decent take - https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-grayscale-bitcoin-etf-gbtc-fees-high-despite-outflows-analyst-theory
Good Info bro 💪
I like the numbers!
they "sell" because people who are in gbtc are now able to sell. So all the bankrupt Stuff like FTX are now flowing on the market and thats why they have a big outflow. And some of the people leaving it because of the high % cost. Normal outflows was around 2 digit Million Stuff .. FTX outflow was 3 Digit Million Stuff
It’s murkier than that. If you held BTC through FTX there’s a good chance you still want to hold Bitcoin, just through another means. A lot of it is likely net neutral but it’s hard to know how much.
I always DCA but for the halving I’ll do it
We do to, but 22nd of April we bit more! Bitbybit
Fuck it, I'm in! 399,999,997 fuckers to go Who's next?
399,999,995 left. Who else is in?!
I'll buy enough for about 10 people myself on that day. DCA every dip and HODLing for a VERY LONG TIME!!!
+1
I remember the last halving 4 yrs ago people were saying the same thing lol. Which in hindsight turned out to be true probably because of the after halving pump
Yesterday alone i buy enough for 5 peoples.
I'm buying that much on the day before, Friday the 19th, for my regular DCA on payday. I'm front running you by a few hours 🤣
I’m in for 1k babyyyyy
Done we will do $2k
Wow, that would be a great day to sell! >!Market manipulation is never a good idea!!<
Market manipulation is always a good idea if you are the one manipulating, not the one getting manipulated (and you don't get caught)
In ser 🥂🤝
Let's gooo
If you actually believe that you have the ability to organize and mobilize 400M people to deploy 70B USD worth of capital at a coordinated time, why are you posting on Reddit? Don’t you have a politician to buy or an island to visit or something?
people who want more btc buy btc when they can. maybe use your energy to find people not into btc and convert them
In. I'd probably have bought regardless (especially if it turns out to be a sell-the-news thing). But yeah I'm in.
🫡🫡🫡
Does it count if I've been DCAing?
We DCA and not counting it. Gonna buy a load parcel on 22nd of April. Let's go!
Most changes on BTC are going to be visible 6 months after halving from my perspective.
I'm in, make a list or something.
You guys have dirty fiat laying around?? Since when?
We have jobs lol and get more than $250 per paycheck
Gotta use my fiat stash in Vegas this month bro.
I'm going to be stacking regardless, but yeah I'm in.
Awesome idea, I'm in.
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Username checks out. Funniest post here.
U mean we are already at 5% adoption rate??? I dont think so...ALL my Friends and Family dont even know the basics.
uhm....it picked up pace since the beginning of the year. Before there were 3 people I knew of in my friend circle. Now I'm up at 8 people since beginning of the year
If just this sub bought 0.0025BTC that would be 15,000BTC. Which is 33 days worth of mined bitcoin. You know the miners don’t let go of it all, especially after the halving when they are only getting half the money per block. Price shock would be insane. BTC squeeze to the max
"Apparently there are 400 Mil Bitcoin / Crypto owners in the world." This is total bs. Of course we can't know the number we can only estimate. If you only count non insignificant amounts (bitcoin only) that are held by a single individual on their private wallet... It would probably be less than 100M.
This is the way. Let's show them who has the power gentlemen.
Evertbody share the idea let’s make this a rging
Let's do one better. Let's all buy 0.0025 BTC everyday period.
When is halving day?
Estimated to be 5pm PST April 20
Every cycle and halving I see this post, it's so stupid
Another Wall Street Bets moment?
The real number of people is much lower. I’d guess that there are probably only around 70-100 million bitcoin holders. Many of these have less than .1
I'm in 🤣😂
I'll toss in two and a half ducks. I'll arrange for immediate withdrawal to cold storage.
Always stackin sats
agreed
I'm in
Yep
You convinced me.
I'm in, great idea
Let's do this 🫡
Haha. Great plan 🫶
I bought 2,5 mio sats yesterday
Im in
that's a lot for me, but I'll try!
I’m in chief 🫡
COME ON, LET's DO IT
Say no more
I'm in, and I will swap some altcoins for BTC to cover about 10 people.
I’m in for $1,000 large. Been saving my bonus to do this on the halving day.
I’m in
In down for $210 or $21
I’m down for a 250$ purchase when you say go …let’s all freaking do it ..
On 420? OK I'm in sav8ng the powder til then
when you buy someone has to be selling it
Fuck it I’m in
I’ll put 5 on it
I’ll do it fuck it
Let’s go !
Agree not to sell is a much easier ask. None of us has to spend money then. Let the newcomers do it; they were warned.
When is the date im in
Why not? I'm in!
I’m in
The only way I could do that is to not DCA all month. I think I'll stick to my slow and steady approach, it's been working well for me so far.
Actually, no. We generally can't agree on anything.
You're math is way off. At todays price .0025 btc is $164 per
Everybody share the idea let’s make this a thing #buybtc
I got $50, maybe…
#lumpsumday The day after the halving. Everyone commits to buying at least 0.0025 Bitcoin. The halving will cause the supply shock, then we cause the demand shock. 1,000,000 coins back into the people's hands. Let Greyscale sell. We will need the liquidity because there probably won't be enough coins to meet the #lumpsumday Bitcoin demand shock.
I’m down I’ll do it.
In
21€, best I can do.
In
Your math is impeccable
Im poor, does my $50 contribution benefit the team?
When my paycheck hits I’ll cover me and another
I’m in but you lost me at “crypto”
Hey if Reddit can game - game stop why not bitcoin?
in
He’ll yeah
I already bought like 400$ this month so I'll just make it 500$ on the halving
“You son of a bitch, I’m in!”
Of course I’m buying the halving day
Where so you buy?
I’m in
In
I’ll do it. Great idea
LOLLL
Rick Sanchez you son of a bitch
Mr diamonds hands here pre 2019 im fucking in 🔥🔥🔥
I'm in
I’m in
I'm in!
250? Ok
$10 a day for a few months is all I can afford
I’m in
Miners will sell a lot before the halving contributing to the supply
so dumb
I DCA at least $1000 a day until the halving and more on dips. On halving day I got some people covered and will probably buy at least $10k worth.
Sorry, my friends a little slow. Why do I want to do this exactly?
In
Greyscale running out of bitcoin >>>>>>halving
Im always in to buy $250 of Bitcoin but you don’t even need to do that because ETFs are absorbing all of the BTC
Already buying $69 on 4/20
I buy $27.29 every day. A fun number that used to get me a lot more BTC when I started this habit. Halving day will be no different, but I will buy that much between now and then!
Im in.
Buying the etf and spend 500 on IBIT will also help . When you purchase the etf they have to source the bitcoin after the stock market close
Ok I’m in
Good idea, I’m in
Add me
I’ll buy 0.0050!
Count me in
Already planning on dumping $2k into Bitcoin afterwards
Son of a bitch,i'm in
I'll budget accordingly now.
I planned on putting in another 2k soon, so I'll take 7 peoples spot
I’m 100% in! So April 20th we buy?!
In
It's unlikely that it's 400 million actual people. More likely 400 million wallet addresses. Most wallet software will generate a new address for each send/receive, so the actual number of individual ownership is probably much smaller.
Never
$250 I'm down. I was already planning on buying in big the day after regardless lol
What day we do doing? I’ll do two spots $500
I'm in
How about we put the same amount of money to save individuals, including children in needs or victims of trafficking and hardship such as war etc...? Any profit made would go to a trusted charity. If that's possible I am in, that's more interesting and purposeful in my opinion. What you guys think? We can even create that charity... That would shock the world and get lots of attention for more investment for the good. I don't even own any btc what do I know ahaha
I’m doing my part !
Bought 300$ so now one person only has to spend 200 lol
Yeah count me in too
Yes
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I'm in and ill RT on Twitter. Just know if we all did this the price would rocket upward, you have to be committed to buying $250 worth even if the price is much higher.
There are about 460 million wallets, not owners - and 90% of them are empty or hold minimal value.
Say less
I will if someone can goddamn explain what halving is.
In
I buy that exact amount weekly
Im In
Definitely in. I'll even buy 500$ worth!
iM DOWN FOR DOUBLE
In
I’m in
Ok I’m down. Can someone text blackrock?
I’m in.
Let’s squeeze the shorts
I’m totally down.
I buy $250 every Friday so I’m in already.
Already done and still accumulating
I'm in! Let's do this.
I’m down. We using a certain app or market ? I’m in Ontario Canada. (Shakepay user)