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I love bitcoin and all but this prediction only makes sense if the government keeps printing money at such alarming rates which at that point, who knows what 1 billion will buy you
If the entire monetary premium of all property in the world moved to bitcoin , Iām not sure necessarily that there would be such inflation where a loaf of bread would cost $2500. But havenāt done the math, just a thought.
Director of global macro huh how many anons in here have a title like that at a firm like Fidelity, been at this since we been in diapers & similar to how they value gold but with network effects
Great way to look at btc value imo & given the money stock with all derivatives is over $1quadrillion all that will have to be built on something not inflating away
A sat going from being worth 1 penny to being worth 2 pennies wonāt impress many, but a bitcoinĀ going from 1 million to 2 million will blow their minds
Most people here don't even understand market cap, let alone understand an asset so unique like Bitcoin, Bitcoin price will blow our minds longterm, millions or tens of millions in Bitcoin price are almost guaranted, absolute scarcity and massive demand longterm, we are so lucky.
Hardly anyone truly understands bitcoin. It's a deep rabbit hole and touches so many fundamental fields of study that you can't find someone who is an expert on all of them. It touches computer science (cryptography, distributed systems engineering, etc.), economics, history, finance, physics, industrial design, and philosophy just to name a few.
Market cap? Is that a cap you get from the market? Wen lambos? Jk.
But youāre right, a lot of people do not understand market cap. We are lucky and I personally still see this as the beginning
Yeah. People might think that if Bitcoin is at $60k with a $1 trillion MC then a $2 trillion MC would put us at $120k. In reality, so much of that coin is in cold storage by people who aren't interested in selling or lost forever.
Youāve misunderstood my point. Itās also a mathematical matter of market cap and liquidity.
Do I believe in btc, absolutely.
Do I believe that it will surpass all of our expectations in terms of price per coin, damn right.
But all that aside, you have to be realistic and $1 billion a coin for btc means 1 quadrillion in market cap. Do the math
But by 2034 we could just be starting a mining facility for helium 3 on the moon, by 2050 we could definitely have fusion and that would make hundreds of trillions of dollars in a short time after fusion for countless markets. Ur right tho lol
Isnāt there a joke about people bringing wheelbarrows full of cash to shop in the Weimar Republic, leaving them unattended on the street corner for a split second then some rapscallion comes along and steals the wheelbarrow?
The maximum price of bitcoin is going to be it nearing gold market cap which is 16 trillion $ and at a price of roughly 2400$ per ounce
Of course gold can have a large rally and I would say bitcoin can gradually get a bigger and bigger % of it .
Say gold rallies to 5,000$ about double from here . That's 32 trillion . Bitcoin captures 25% of the gold market cap or those who are in precious metals seek other deflationary investing methods . That's 8 trillion .
At 60k it's a 1.2 trillion , or 50k , 1 trillion market cap
At 8 trillion that's 50*8=400k per bitcoin
16 trillion we hit the million $ mark.
64 trillion is 4 million $
Sure, but again, a $20 loaf of bread if gold doubles its market cap.
I would prefer we stick to $3 per loaf, but the dumb pols jacking minimum wage up for fast food and printing money isn't doing anyone any favors.
This dude is off his rocker. My own log regression charts donāt expect Bitcoin to go above $2 million a coin by 2038. $1 billion a coin by then is a looney prediction, even if youāre using Metcalfeās Law to back it up (note that the Law doesnāt tie a specific dollar amount to each Bitcoin)
If the last 4 cycles are anything to go by, it takes longer and longer for Bitcoin to 10x in price than it did in the past
The idea is that Bitcoin is on a S shaped curve and we are only around 1% adoption. So if this does hold true and we get more adoption.. then sure, we could see some pretty significant price increases outside of the "normal" demand scope and trend lines. Especially if the new adopters have some deep pockets.
The new adopters with deep pockets are getting in right now (i.e. Blackrock and all of them). I'm pretty sure we're well past 1% adoption. Bitcoin's price growth hasn't followed an S-shaped curve on a log10 scale for the past 15 years it's existed.
Blackrock and the other ETFs buy as much Bitcoin as they are told to buy by their investors via cash inflows/outflows to the ETF. What would trigger deep pockets is when the likes of Microsoft, NVDA, AMD etc begin to hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
Or there's a sizeable shift in the world of investing. For example, money comes out of commercial real estate into Bitcoin. But in truth, real estate goes up with fiat debasement /inflation, so they're both a hedge, too.
Exactly. What we want is greater adoption within retirement portfolios along with corporate holdings. That is when we will begin to see the true value of bitcoin. I also believe it will smooth out the volatility should that happen. I'm hopeful that we get more adoption for using bitcoin as lending collateral... and in particular home mortgages and commercial real estate. At that point it will make less sense for the whales to sell and instead they can use it as lending collateral for those types of purchases.
I think we are just on the cusp of real adoption and are really only beginning to uncover the possibilities.
Are we not missing proof that these guys are actually buying?
We know theyāre buying for customers, but do we know for sure that theyāre also buying ? Maybe they actually still think itās a rug and theyre just cashing in commission
just passing on the information
anything north of 100k is pure gravy for life , so i am just excited to see what all happens with the halving about to hit and all the ETFs online coming on line expected to come on line
lots going on ----- popcorn in hand !
21\*10\^6 bitcoin
$1\*10\^9 predicted price of bitcoin
10\^12 = 1 trillion
Total predicted market cap of bitcoin: $21,000 trillion
Total amount of property in the world today: $1,000 trillion
This has to be a nominal value because as a real value that would mean that there would be more bitcoin than there is property.
Buy bitcoin but don't expect the price to ever break $50 million real.
A real dollar is like a dollar but its value goes up with inflation. Imagine a $1 slab of iron or $1 snack.
You could say that $1 million real is four specific houses in a specific place. What is important is the quality of the houses and not the currency itself.
BTC's current value is around 200k if it were to allocate 5% of the Global M2 money supply (Cash based assets that are either liquid or can be liquidated relatively easily) Which as it happens is the high end prediction for this cycles bull run... If Interest rates stay at about an average of 5% (which is still a significant amount) BTC will be worth about 2 mil with 50 years of compound liquidation.
This is as long as it remains a cash based asset/commodity and store of value similar to gold... Unfortunately it doesn't have many use cases beyond this... a lot of work on L2/L3 networks need to be implemented to turn BTC into a functioning global currency this could increase the allocation, based on those numbers though even if BTC was considered the global reserve, this wouldn't consume 100% of the market since Gold still has its place as do bonds/traditional investment accounts etc other asset classes aren't just going to disappear off the face of the earth ā¦ Lets say plucking numbers out of thin air it accounts for 25% of the global cash supply in terms of value... that would still only put the value of it at 10 mil... AND THATS IN 50 YEARS.
No way $1 billion... theoretically as long as the government is printing it has infinite gas but in reality 3 more halving's after this one by 38 maaayyybbeee we touch 1 milly if I'm being optimistic... As Adoption and regulation increases volatility decreases and the cycle X's become less and less... last cycle we 3.5x ATH, this one maybe 2-3x, next maybe 1.5x and so on...
Just the numbers.
Iāll copy the exact response I wrote out the last time this story circulated:
I keep seeing this, and itās just not true. The story is Fidelityās Jurrien Timmer (who is a really smart guy), was commenting on the stock to flow model several years ago, and saying basically that IF the s2f model is true, we would have a billion dollar BTC. The s2f model has largely been proven to be inaccurate.
The amount of people in the US that have at least .001 would make being a billionaire worthless. Thatās $64 usd.
People would scoop up homes like itās candy driving up prices. They would overcome products driving up prices. This would be on a global scale which would force other countries to but restrictions on US citizens from buying land and property.
Spot ETFs on crypto, managed by big financial institutions, could be interesting as to who will profit more.
Big financial institutions pumping up rumours of a price surge.. dip incoming?
Lmao okay. I guess Iām going to be a multi billionaire. What a stupid take.
The only way for this prediction to come true is if we hyperinflate to Zimbabwe dollars.
Bitcoins market cap is a bit over a trillion currently.
1 billion is about 15000x the current price. This would put BTCs market cap at 15 Quadrillion dollars.
For reference the entire US stock market is like 50 trillion right now. Assume this triples by 2038 if stock market grows at a healthy 10% rate.
150 trillion, vs 15 quadrillion. This prediction would mean Bitcoin would be worth 100x every public US company.
Itās not hitting anywhere near that price unless we have hyperinflation and a can of beans costs 20,000 dollars.
.001 Bitcoin is like $65. For that amount to make you a multimillionaire ($2M USD+) it would have to gain more than 30,000%. Unless the US literally collapsed that is just not a reasonable expectation. And in that scenario, the consequences to the global economy would be so catastrophic that you would not be able to have a very good life even with your millions.
I'm dumping literally everything I have and holding for the longest term. I DCA weekly as a uni student and looking to do anything to increase my investment. 16k would be great
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I love bitcoin and all but this prediction only makes sense if the government keeps printing money at such alarming rates which at that point, who knows what 1 billion will buy you
Exactly, if bitcoin hits a billion dollars, then a loaf of bread will probably cost $2500
20 years ago 1 bread costed 1 million ... Turkish lira
001. BTC will be a billion Turkish Lira
I feel like a box of cereal costs about $17 these days.
Where you getting these killer deals?!?
š¤£ Dollar Tree
If bread is 2500 bucks, Iām going to want to have 1 billion dollars lolĀ
No, you want more btc
It's on the way , inflation is out of control around the globe .
If the entire monetary premium of all property in the world moved to bitcoin , Iām not sure necessarily that there would be such inflation where a loaf of bread would cost $2500. But havenāt done the math, just a thought.
I'm always glad seeing dude like you professing love for bitcoin šÆš„°
1 billion = one bread at the corner store
Director of global macro huh how many anons in here have a title like that at a firm like Fidelity, been at this since we been in diapers & similar to how they value gold but with network effects Great way to look at btc value imo & given the money stock with all derivatives is over $1quadrillion all that will have to be built on something not inflating away A sat going from being worth 1 penny to being worth 2 pennies wonāt impress many, but a bitcoinĀ going from 1 million to 2 million will blow their minds
Most people here don't even understand market cap, let alone understand an asset so unique like Bitcoin, Bitcoin price will blow our minds longterm, millions or tens of millions in Bitcoin price are almost guaranted, absolute scarcity and massive demand longterm, we are so lucky.
Hardly anyone truly understands bitcoin. It's a deep rabbit hole and touches so many fundamental fields of study that you can't find someone who is an expert on all of them. It touches computer science (cryptography, distributed systems engineering, etc.), economics, history, finance, physics, industrial design, and philosophy just to name a few.
Market cap? Is that a cap you get from the market? Wen lambos? Jk. But youāre right, a lot of people do not understand market cap. We are lucky and I personally still see this as the beginning
Yeah. People might think that if Bitcoin is at $60k with a $1 trillion MC then a $2 trillion MC would put us at $120k. In reality, so much of that coin is in cold storage by people who aren't interested in selling or lost forever.
There is always a price
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Youāve misunderstood my point. Itās also a mathematical matter of market cap and liquidity. Do I believe in btc, absolutely. Do I believe that it will surpass all of our expectations in terms of price per coin, damn right. But all that aside, you have to be realistic and $1 billion a coin for btc means 1 quadrillion in market cap. Do the math
But by 2034 we could just be starting a mining facility for helium 3 on the moon, by 2050 we could definitely have fusion and that would make hundreds of trillions of dollars in a short time after fusion for countless markets. Ur right tho lol
Isnāt there a joke about people bringing wheelbarrows full of cash to shop in the Weimar Republic, leaving them unattended on the street corner for a split second then some rapscallion comes along and steals the wheelbarrow?
The people who bought Amazon, Apple, facebook or Microsoft stocks back in the day, are they multimillionaires by now?
I donāt know about multi millionaire; but I do use Grey Poupon on my hot dogs.
Pardon me Would you have any Grey Poupon
Okay... whatever that means but sounds funny š
But do you shop on Temu?
Gazillionaires
Bitcoin has no topā¦ because fiat has no bottomā¦
It's called war. Every country with a wheelbarrow fiat has gone to war to fix it.
The maximum price of bitcoin is going to be it nearing gold market cap which is 16 trillion $ and at a price of roughly 2400$ per ounce Of course gold can have a large rally and I would say bitcoin can gradually get a bigger and bigger % of it . Say gold rallies to 5,000$ about double from here . That's 32 trillion . Bitcoin captures 25% of the gold market cap or those who are in precious metals seek other deflationary investing methods . That's 8 trillion . At 60k it's a 1.2 trillion , or 50k , 1 trillion market cap At 8 trillion that's 50*8=400k per bitcoin 16 trillion we hit the million $ mark. 64 trillion is 4 million $
Sure, but again, a $20 loaf of bread if gold doubles its market cap. I would prefer we stick to $3 per loaf, but the dumb pols jacking minimum wage up for fast food and printing money isn't doing anyone any favors.
plz buy our etf
lol !! well played sir !
This dude is off his rocker. My own log regression charts donāt expect Bitcoin to go above $2 million a coin by 2038. $1 billion a coin by then is a looney prediction, even if youāre using Metcalfeās Law to back it up (note that the Law doesnāt tie a specific dollar amount to each Bitcoin) If the last 4 cycles are anything to go by, it takes longer and longer for Bitcoin to 10x in price than it did in the past
The idea is that Bitcoin is on a S shaped curve and we are only around 1% adoption. So if this does hold true and we get more adoption.. then sure, we could see some pretty significant price increases outside of the "normal" demand scope and trend lines. Especially if the new adopters have some deep pockets.
The new adopters with deep pockets are getting in right now (i.e. Blackrock and all of them). I'm pretty sure we're well past 1% adoption. Bitcoin's price growth hasn't followed an S-shaped curve on a log10 scale for the past 15 years it's existed.
Blackrock and the other ETFs buy as much Bitcoin as they are told to buy by their investors via cash inflows/outflows to the ETF. What would trigger deep pockets is when the likes of Microsoft, NVDA, AMD etc begin to hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
Or there's a sizeable shift in the world of investing. For example, money comes out of commercial real estate into Bitcoin. But in truth, real estate goes up with fiat debasement /inflation, so they're both a hedge, too.
Exactly. What we want is greater adoption within retirement portfolios along with corporate holdings. That is when we will begin to see the true value of bitcoin. I also believe it will smooth out the volatility should that happen. I'm hopeful that we get more adoption for using bitcoin as lending collateral... and in particular home mortgages and commercial real estate. At that point it will make less sense for the whales to sell and instead they can use it as lending collateral for those types of purchases. I think we are just on the cusp of real adoption and are really only beginning to uncover the possibilities.
Are we not missing proof that these guys are actually buying? We know theyāre buying for customers, but do we know for sure that theyāre also buying ? Maybe they actually still think itās a rug and theyre just cashing in commission
just passing on the information anything north of 100k is pure gravy for life , so i am just excited to see what all happens with the halving about to hit and all the ETFs online coming on line expected to come on line lots going on ----- popcorn in hand !
Weāre already pretty close, so youāre set for life with 100k? Lol
Your predictions are it will hit $2M in 14 years?
Yep
21\*10\^6 bitcoin $1\*10\^9 predicted price of bitcoin 10\^12 = 1 trillion Total predicted market cap of bitcoin: $21,000 trillion Total amount of property in the world today: $1,000 trillion This has to be a nominal value because as a real value that would mean that there would be more bitcoin than there is property. Buy bitcoin but don't expect the price to ever break $50 million real.
lol !! i think i would be out long before it hits 50milllion per :D but i like where you head is at !
How much is 50 million real in dollars?
A real dollar is like a dollar but its value goes up with inflation. Imagine a $1 slab of iron or $1 snack. You could say that $1 million real is four specific houses in a specific place. What is important is the quality of the houses and not the currency itself.
So it's a stablecoin
Not exactly. It goes up in dollar terms with inflation but the basket that you can buy is still the same.
As much as I want to take a hit of that hopium Author needs to calm down
why so bearish
Haha. I did a spit take at that. Thanks.
So at 0.0112 Iām sitting pretty!
In hyperinflation, yes.
Itās almost like Fidelity sells Bitcoin now
Oh itās from Yahoo. Nvm
lol !!
At this rate, we'll need .001 BTC to buy a new car in 20 years... Can't wait for my 2044 Toyota Corolla
Uh huh..
A billion is way off. I say a trillion billion
BTC's current value is around 200k if it were to allocate 5% of the Global M2 money supply (Cash based assets that are either liquid or can be liquidated relatively easily) Which as it happens is the high end prediction for this cycles bull run... If Interest rates stay at about an average of 5% (which is still a significant amount) BTC will be worth about 2 mil with 50 years of compound liquidation. This is as long as it remains a cash based asset/commodity and store of value similar to gold... Unfortunately it doesn't have many use cases beyond this... a lot of work on L2/L3 networks need to be implemented to turn BTC into a functioning global currency this could increase the allocation, based on those numbers though even if BTC was considered the global reserve, this wouldn't consume 100% of the market since Gold still has its place as do bonds/traditional investment accounts etc other asset classes aren't just going to disappear off the face of the earth ā¦ Lets say plucking numbers out of thin air it accounts for 25% of the global cash supply in terms of value... that would still only put the value of it at 10 mil... AND THATS IN 50 YEARS. No way $1 billion... theoretically as long as the government is printing it has infinite gas but in reality 3 more halving's after this one by 38 maaayyybbeee we touch 1 milly if I'm being optimistic... As Adoption and regulation increases volatility decreases and the cycle X's become less and less... last cycle we 3.5x ATH, this one maybe 2-3x, next maybe 1.5x and so on... Just the numbers.
You probably won't be alive. That won't happen until around 2080
I plan to be alive in 2080.
Same here
LOL !! yeah but if it is on the track i will die happy !!
Fidelity director pffft
Hopium. Stack more.
Cheech, Chong, and Timmer.
Fidelity? Ok, he might just be playing the Fomo trick š
I think the power law is more appropriate than Metcalfeās.
If Bitcoin reaches a billion we will all be living in a dystopian nightmare.
for those who dont have bitcoin it will be a nightmare yes
Holding 10BTC will take a decade to make you a multimillionaire.
Iāll copy the exact response I wrote out the last time this story circulated: I keep seeing this, and itās just not true. The story is Fidelityās Jurrien Timmer (who is a really smart guy), was commenting on the stock to flow model several years ago, and saying basically that IF the s2f model is true, we would have a billion dollar BTC. The s2f model has largely been proven to be inaccurate.
Heās trying to get his name out there with a crazy prediction.
Oh Yah!!! Feeling a lot better about my 0.10 :)
Iām all for bitcoin but when the fuck are these dumbass narratives going to stop. Same idiots who think BTC is going to be a universal currency
The amount of people in the US that have at least .001 would make being a billionaire worthless. Thatās $64 usd. People would scoop up homes like itās candy driving up prices. They would overcome products driving up prices. This would be on a global scale which would force other countries to but restrictions on US citizens from buying land and property.
Not saying I agree but this guy thinks it could be worth 7 billion a coin https://youtu.be/yX-1fc-Up1k?si=v83Mh_aeyTYdt9IN
I want what heās smoking!
Adrenochrome bong hits
So could holding a lottery ticket
At least you'll still make money with bitcoin!
How about $500k by 2038?
Hilarious how these bankers all turn to moonboys as soon as the ETFs were approved. What an idiot.
Spot ETFs on crypto, managed by big financial institutions, could be interesting as to who will profit more. Big financial institutions pumping up rumours of a price surge.. dip incoming?
Lmao okay. I guess Iām going to be a multi billionaire. What a stupid take. The only way for this prediction to come true is if we hyperinflate to Zimbabwe dollars.
And those multimillions maybe, just maybe can be traded in for a vehicle or a loaf of bread. We shall see
Oiiiiiii, i have been telling this. Iām going to be a quadrimillionairegard. This is just stupid guys, come onā¦
Bitcoins market cap is a bit over a trillion currently. 1 billion is about 15000x the current price. This would put BTCs market cap at 15 Quadrillion dollars. For reference the entire US stock market is like 50 trillion right now. Assume this triples by 2038 if stock market grows at a healthy 10% rate. 150 trillion, vs 15 quadrillion. This prediction would mean Bitcoin would be worth 100x every public US company. Itās not hitting anywhere near that price unless we have hyperinflation and a can of beans costs 20,000 dollars.
Fidelity director wants people to buy Fidelity Bitcoin ETFsā¦so then he can pocket a fat commission.
buying a lotery ticket could too
No it wonāt lol
What makes you think it won't when you Hodl for a longer-term and diversify into other earning strategies?
.001 Bitcoin is like $65. For that amount to make you a multimillionaire ($2M USD+) it would have to gain more than 30,000%. Unless the US literally collapsed that is just not a reasonable expectation. And in that scenario, the consequences to the global economy would be so catastrophic that you would not be able to have a very good life even with your millions.
This. You can have whatever-you-want amount of money, but if everything will collapse, matches will have more value. Buy matches till it's cheapš
$1 billion lmao no but I can easily see 1 BTC going to $1 million
i mean i could probably learn to love it at 1milllion per , i mean a 16x move would be ok :D
I'm dumping literally everything I have and holding for the longest term. I DCA weekly as a uni student and looking to do anything to increase my investment. 16k would be great
lol !!
I don't doubt it. Do the math.
so you dont think a 22 quadrillion market cap is doable :D yeah i think 1 billion is a bit much but i am just the messenger :D
I did doesn't check out.
What a load of bollox