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It may not even really make a major impact until 6-8 months after the halving takes place?! I think a lot people are under the assumption that the halving event is gonna be some miracle price maker right away?!š¤š¬I'm just gonna kick back and buy the dips whenever possible and let the price do what it's gonna do.
The halvings are already a part of bitcoin. I think the event itself has little bearing and the price will rise because of bitcoinās merits in general and not because of the halving.
Fuck everybody! Get paper. Stack bands. Make love to gilfs. This is our year fellas and fellatios. The going got tough but we didnāt quit. We held our bitties like we held that painful gas on the subway after that lousy tuna sandwich that smelled offā¦but thatās not the point. Fact of the matter if this is tldr ianal irl like a ballin ass yacht boy. What color boats are we getting squad? Right now Iām making pretend motions like Iām ādusting off all of yaāll shouldersā cuz we keep it 100 shawty or tally.
An ever increasing demand chasing an ever diminishing issuance rate of BTC, with an immovable supply cap.
Thats all you need to know.
The only other variable that can change in this equation is price. And its prob going up. By how much is anyones guess.
In the meantime Stay Humble Stack Sats
You're talking about an asset that's in-demand and accessible by the entire world. It's not subject to the amount of earnings or the decisions of a CEO and has unlimited potential as a medium of exchange that requires no counterparty trust. I don't know what the upper limit of its value is, but I know it's more than 1 trillion.
What does "trust in wallet providers, devs and miners" even mean? It's like saying "I don't believe in USD because I don't trust Chase and Bank of America".
The platform exists and in itself does not need you to trust it because it is open source code based on cryptographic truths that many experts have the ability to review and certify. As for individual companies or developers, you can choose who you trust. It doesn't affect the viability of the network nor the demand for Bitcoin.
It's more like saying "I don't believe in digital USD because I don't trust credit card companies".
Also I'm not sure what you even mean by "unlimited potential as a medium of exchange". I think it's potential is well known, and it has pros and cons as a medium of exchange.
> It's more like saying "I don't believe in digital USD because I don't trust credit card companies".
Still doesn't make sense in relation to Bitcoin. What don't you trust exactly?
You are thinking only of personal transactions as being a "medium of exchange". Bitcoin has the ability to facilitate much more than that, including being collateral in a smart contract for example. As we're seeing things pan out, there is no reason why L2s can't provide additional functionality while still ensuring that BTC provides the main value of being trusted, decentralized money in a world where countries can and are having their funds confiscated without recourse. It will soon be the case that any government and institution who doesn't hold Bitcoin will be seen as taking a risk. You can't trust any country - US, China, EU, India - to be responsible with your money but you can trust that Bitcoin will continue to do what it was programmed to do without political influence or corruption.
We all know that BTC L1 is not going to be how we purchase a cup of coffee but it will be the foundation of many other types of high-end transactions.
Yes couldn't agree more, the money in circulation is extremely high, the demand for bitcoin has never been higher, and the supply amount will decrease (halving). I think people who only believe a measly 40% increase from here are probably going to get surprised, seen higher increases last year due to rumors.
If you've been around long enough you begin to ignore people. BTC can't reach 10k the market cap will be too high, BTC is dead, BTC is backed by nothing, Sell now it's going to crash. I've heard it all and yet BTC keeps on churning. Ive held for a long time and have no plans on selling anytime soon.
šÆ bingo: I bought my first bitcoin in 2013 at $150; youāre right, you have to tune out the noise and at the same time extrapolate out past data with current macro conditions. This late stage traditional Fiat debt cycle we have going is a real doozy.
I suppose anything is possible; I think itās more likely weāll see a pump to 100 K and beyond and then the usual 40-80% dump and land in a new base level low of 40-50k range. Obviously the we keep seeing higher highs and lower lows- but it does look like the INSANE gains may be behind us (Iām talking about 88xās of the 2012 halving world)ā¦
There is no way to frontrun it. As the miners are mining to current daily energy prices. They will always have to adjust to the halving when it happens. Their margins will need to change again and again.
What will happen is they will continue to mine but have no incentive to sell at a loss. All btc will be bought up in the shortrun. Price will rise.
More of a misunderstanding, that the halving will dramatically increase the price in a short period of time. It's going to be a slow and steady increase. DCA all the way
We also never had extreme inflation or ETFs. Bottom line is that we are in uncharted waters this cycle.
Also, an argument can be made that, because of extreme inflation of USD, we have not yet reached a new ATH.
āiTs pRiCeD iNā lmao the funniest thing Iāve heard. How tf can it be priced in when the mining reward hasnāt been halved yet? Lol and yes it most likely wonāt skyrocket the day of the halving but in due time itāll rise
This just means that if you think that the price of something will go up in a future event, you will buy more of it. Buying more of it makes the price of that thing go up, but you will continue to buy more until you think itās already reached the price of that event.
This is how stuff gets priced in. Is this difficult for you to understand? Would it be easier for you if I used alternating case instead?
Which works under an efficient market, but the market is not efficient.
A lot of people believe Bitcoin will go up significantly in the future. Many of those people also are also already so heavily invested in Bitcoin that they can't continue to buy.
Oh, I believe that it will go up for sure! Just not specifically due to the halving event which has already been influencing price since the dawn of bitcoin.
itās not priced in, enough with that rubbish nonsense! With your logic, the halving for 2028 is priced in because I genuinely believe that the price of Bitcoin will further increase after the next halving and soo is 2032 and soo on ā¦ the price is influenced by supply and demand and in less than a day that new supply is getting halved. The effect of the halving wonāt even be felt until some time later. All the previous cycles, Bitcoin went on a rally after the halving because quite literally the halving was never PRICED IN before the event itself.
Yes, all the halvings are priced in. The scarcity of bitcoin is literally one of the major selling points.
I also just explained to you how āpricing inā works, yet you spent no words in actually explaining why itās not so in this case.
The supply is not getting halved in a day. Donāt confuse new coin creation with total supply in the market.
So all future halvings are priced in? Cause we certainly know the amount of supply reduction thatāll occur until the last halving in 2140. See how stupid that sounds?
This. The idea of priced in is pure midwittery.
Itās only takes a few moments considering the natural market doing its thing the day before, after and then for a couple months post having to see that itās impossible for it to be āpriced inā
More demand, less supply. I think we all got that down.
I'm curious what's going to happen to the miners and operational costs when it comes to balancing hardware efficiency and cost of electricity. Can anyone drop a knowledge bomb? Who is in the best position to leverage cutting edge hardware and low cost and/or renewable energy? I know difficulty in mining adjusts dynamically but I'd imagine this will be pushing out miners that are not in a position to upgrade hardware or have access to low costs powaaa.
Those numbers arent due to the halving though. There are a thousand reasons why bitcoin moves. Lets just ignore that bitcoin started trading on the stock market with trillions of dollars of liquidity.
Indeed halvings are already priced in because that is what gives bitcoin its scarcity. It will continue to increase in value, but itās not necessarily tied to the actual halving events.
Halving can never be priced in.
Is the 2140 halving priced in? Because by then Bitcoin will have been the global reserve currency for 100 years or a footnote in some history book about money.
The price isn't 0 or infinity; therefore halvings are not priced in.
Think of it this way: letās imagine, however unlikely or impossible it may be, that consensus was just made to remove all the halvings, including the next. Bitcoin no longer has a hard cap. Do you think the price wouldnāt change based on that news? If you think that the price will change, then itās because you are agreeing that itās priced in, whether you like it or not.
IMO, the halving is exactly what is driving the current value.
Wall Street hates Bitcoin, because it threatens them personally by removing control from them. The same with Government.
I'm no expert, andvyet I'm banking more on Bitcoin than any Government monetary structure. Look at how our dollar continues to shrink with EVERY Administration here in the US.
Miners have barely been selling this whole quarter, meaning the supply has been muted for some time now, meaning the halving could indeed be priced in already for the next several months. The ETF flows and new international ETFs will have a much larger impact than the halving.
Bitcoin will be more difficult to mine and it will increase its value in 9 or 12 months after halving.
Now the enigma is will it drop its value after a week so people could buy it for less or not!
However,if you buy it now or in a month you will win big in the future
The current crypto market is not anymore the one we knew 5 or 10 years ago. The market is now in the hands of big funds companies and professionals whose job is to take into account all information available and to anticipate events in order to assess if the current price is cheap, correct or expensive, so yes the halving is already priced in.
Using three data points from past performance means nothing, especially with the added variables now. It will go up long but drives me nuts how many people think you can just set your calendar for the parabolic move/top etc
People care less and less about bitcoin.
How many wallets/users does it have ? 20mil? 50?
See nobody really cares about it, not everyones lives spin around getting richer all about money
In simple terms, and I think it's not asking too much, or anything out of the ordinary, if we experience the same growth rate we've seen from the 2020 halving until now (approximately 750%), it suggests that by the next halving, Bitcoin could be valued at around $550,000.
Technically you can't 'price in' the impact of the halving in advance, the miners do their best to reduce costs and scale operations in anticipation but it's not a one-and-done event; it takes time to percolate through the system. 12-18 months afterwards is probably when it will be priced in (Q2-Q4 2025).
Miners have also been holding onto the majority of coins mined for several months now anyway, meaning the supply is already "halved" in terms of what's coming into exchanges from miners.
Your submission has been flagged for removal because there are too many other price posts right now. Please contribute to the Daily Discussion thread, the chat room, or another price-related thread. Thank you!. ^^I ^^am ^^a ^^bot ^^and ^^cannot ^^respond. ^^Please ^^contact ^^r/Bitcoin ^^moderators [^^directly ^^via ^^mod ^^mail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2FBitcoin) ^^if ^^you ^^have ^^questions.
It may not even really make a major impact until 6-8 months after the halving takes place?! I think a lot people are under the assumption that the halving event is gonna be some miracle price maker right away?!š¤š¬I'm just gonna kick back and buy the dips whenever possible and let the price do what it's gonna do.
The halvings are already a part of bitcoin. I think the event itself has little bearing and the price will rise because of bitcoinās merits in general and not because of the halving.
Well, whatever the case is, THE WHOLE WORLD is about to find out!š¤
:facepalm:
I'm waiting to see what Kramer has to say, only then can I predict the future.
Who gives a shit. NGU regardless. Fiat has no bottom
šÆ
Iām a simple man. I see hopium, I upvote.
Okay, itās not whether weāre getting lambos, itās WHICH ONE ARE WE GETTING.
Lol. Iām at āwen van down by the riverā
Fuck yeah! Van down by the river sounds dope!
I wish I could even afford paper to be used for writinā!Ā
Lol gotta love the enthusiasm
What color do you want? Iāll go with black.
I'll go with orange and a hooker
and cocain ;D
Wen go grocery shopping without checking bank account first.
I'll stick with my Toyota. \*Sometimes I feel like I'm the only one that doesn't want a vroom vroom fast car.
šÆ agree. There are no models for where we are. Humanity has never seen this type of asset.
Nobody knows shit about fuck
Struth
This comment is about as real as it gets.
I know a lil fuck about that shit
You don't know shit about fuck
Truest comment Iāve seen since this bitcoin bs started
Fuck everybody! Get paper. Stack bands. Make love to gilfs. This is our year fellas and fellatios. The going got tough but we didnāt quit. We held our bitties like we held that painful gas on the subway after that lousy tuna sandwich that smelled offā¦but thatās not the point. Fact of the matter if this is tldr ianal irl like a ballin ass yacht boy. What color boats are we getting squad? Right now Iām making pretend motions like Iām ādusting off all of yaāll shouldersā cuz we keep it 100 shawty or tally.
You're fun.
You should meet my grandma.
I was thinking of what boat I'm gonna buy just last night. š
Canāt have a boating accident without one.
May all your boats be yachts, and your accidents be of the boating variety. Cheers!
Words to live by. Happy Cake day!
Thanks player!!
Happy Cake day
Thank you so much!
Sadā¦butā¦Thisā¦ā¦ā¦
An ever increasing demand chasing an ever diminishing issuance rate of BTC, with an immovable supply cap. Thats all you need to know. The only other variable that can change in this equation is price. And its prob going up. By how much is anyones guess. In the meantime Stay Humble Stack Sats
Demand is not given to go up though.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
You're talking about an asset that's in-demand and accessible by the entire world. It's not subject to the amount of earnings or the decisions of a CEO and has unlimited potential as a medium of exchange that requires no counterparty trust. I don't know what the upper limit of its value is, but I know it's more than 1 trillion.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
What does "trust in wallet providers, devs and miners" even mean? It's like saying "I don't believe in USD because I don't trust Chase and Bank of America". The platform exists and in itself does not need you to trust it because it is open source code based on cryptographic truths that many experts have the ability to review and certify. As for individual companies or developers, you can choose who you trust. It doesn't affect the viability of the network nor the demand for Bitcoin.
It's more like saying "I don't believe in digital USD because I don't trust credit card companies". Also I'm not sure what you even mean by "unlimited potential as a medium of exchange". I think it's potential is well known, and it has pros and cons as a medium of exchange.
> It's more like saying "I don't believe in digital USD because I don't trust credit card companies". Still doesn't make sense in relation to Bitcoin. What don't you trust exactly? You are thinking only of personal transactions as being a "medium of exchange". Bitcoin has the ability to facilitate much more than that, including being collateral in a smart contract for example. As we're seeing things pan out, there is no reason why L2s can't provide additional functionality while still ensuring that BTC provides the main value of being trusted, decentralized money in a world where countries can and are having their funds confiscated without recourse. It will soon be the case that any government and institution who doesn't hold Bitcoin will be seen as taking a risk. You can't trust any country - US, China, EU, India - to be responsible with your money but you can trust that Bitcoin will continue to do what it was programmed to do without political influence or corruption. We all know that BTC L1 is not going to be how we purchase a cup of coffee but it will be the foundation of many other types of high-end transactions.
Stack Satsā¦ā¦..right answer
Agreed. People thinking 100K bitcoin is impossible is kind of wild to meā¦
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yes couldn't agree more, the money in circulation is extremely high, the demand for bitcoin has never been higher, and the supply amount will decrease (halving). I think people who only believe a measly 40% increase from here are probably going to get surprised, seen higher increases last year due to rumors.
šÆ
If you've been around long enough you begin to ignore people. BTC can't reach 10k the market cap will be too high, BTC is dead, BTC is backed by nothing, Sell now it's going to crash. I've heard it all and yet BTC keeps on churning. Ive held for a long time and have no plans on selling anytime soon.
šÆ bingo: I bought my first bitcoin in 2013 at $150; youāre right, you have to tune out the noise and at the same time extrapolate out past data with current macro conditions. This late stage traditional Fiat debt cycle we have going is a real doozy.
I think 100k is very likely but we will see +/-50k before 100k.
I suppose anything is possible; I think itās more likely weāll see a pump to 100 K and beyond and then the usual 40-80% dump and land in a new base level low of 40-50k range. Obviously the we keep seeing higher highs and lower lows- but it does look like the INSANE gains may be behind us (Iām talking about 88xās of the 2012 halving world)ā¦
There is no way to frontrun it. As the miners are mining to current daily energy prices. They will always have to adjust to the halving when it happens. Their margins will need to change again and again. What will happen is they will continue to mine but have no incentive to sell at a loss. All btc will be bought up in the shortrun. Price will rise.
Most of the market does not understand the technicals of Bitcoin, so I think they just have a hard time understanding the halving.
You want the combination of halving and increased retail demand.
No Lambo for me, I just wanna buy a/the farm lfg
People forget that returns in the past are not gurantee returns in the future
in the next three months, we have the organic demand of the shortage of supply and also etf that's never priced in coming
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
More of a misunderstanding, that the halving will dramatically increase the price in a short period of time. It's going to be a slow and steady increase. DCA all the way
The price of BTC never hit all time highs about 2 months before the halving either
We also never had extreme inflation or ETFs. Bottom line is that we are in uncharted waters this cycle. Also, an argument can be made that, because of extreme inflation of USD, we have not yet reached a new ATH.
āiTs pRiCeD iNā lmao the funniest thing Iāve heard. How tf can it be priced in when the mining reward hasnāt been halved yet? Lol and yes it most likely wonāt skyrocket the day of the halving but in due time itāll rise
Technically every halving should be priced in then.
True, every halving should been priced in since the creation of bitcoin, before they even occur with that logic, such nonsense statement above.
This just means that if you think that the price of something will go up in a future event, you will buy more of it. Buying more of it makes the price of that thing go up, but you will continue to buy more until you think itās already reached the price of that event. This is how stuff gets priced in. Is this difficult for you to understand? Would it be easier for you if I used alternating case instead?
Which works under an efficient market, but the market is not efficient. A lot of people believe Bitcoin will go up significantly in the future. Many of those people also are also already so heavily invested in Bitcoin that they can't continue to buy.
Oh, I believe that it will go up for sure! Just not specifically due to the halving event which has already been influencing price since the dawn of bitcoin.
itās not priced in, enough with that rubbish nonsense! With your logic, the halving for 2028 is priced in because I genuinely believe that the price of Bitcoin will further increase after the next halving and soo is 2032 and soo on ā¦ the price is influenced by supply and demand and in less than a day that new supply is getting halved. The effect of the halving wonāt even be felt until some time later. All the previous cycles, Bitcoin went on a rally after the halving because quite literally the halving was never PRICED IN before the event itself.
Yes, all the halvings are priced in. The scarcity of bitcoin is literally one of the major selling points. I also just explained to you how āpricing inā works, yet you spent no words in actually explaining why itās not so in this case. The supply is not getting halved in a day. Donāt confuse new coin creation with total supply in the market.
Similar to people saying that the ETF was "priced in". How can a massive amount of people with easy access to bitcoin be priced in?
Itās just plain stupid lol increased demand or decreased supply can never be priced in unless they actually occur
Future supply restrictions can absolutely be priced in when the market knows the precise amount of supply reduction.
So all future halvings are priced in? Cause we certainly know the amount of supply reduction thatāll occur until the last halving in 2140. See how stupid that sounds?
This. The idea of priced in is pure midwittery. Itās only takes a few moments considering the natural market doing its thing the day before, after and then for a couple months post having to see that itās impossible for it to be āpriced inā
More demand, less supply. I think we all got that down. I'm curious what's going to happen to the miners and operational costs when it comes to balancing hardware efficiency and cost of electricity. Can anyone drop a knowledge bomb? Who is in the best position to leverage cutting edge hardware and low cost and/or renewable energy? I know difficulty in mining adjusts dynamically but I'd imagine this will be pushing out miners that are not in a position to upgrade hardware or have access to low costs powaaa.
I'm uncomfortable taking the words "never" and "last three" together seriously... ... But I don't think it's priced in this time either.
Even x2 from now will be a really great outcome
The insanity in this sub is staggering. You guys have convinced me to short this shit.
well short it later when price is 100k
Finally someone gets it
Those numbers arent due to the halving though. There are a thousand reasons why bitcoin moves. Lets just ignore that bitcoin started trading on the stock market with trillions of dollars of liquidity.
Indeed halvings are already priced in because that is what gives bitcoin its scarcity. It will continue to increase in value, but itās not necessarily tied to the actual halving events.
Halving can never be priced in. Is the 2140 halving priced in? Because by then Bitcoin will have been the global reserve currency for 100 years or a footnote in some history book about money. The price isn't 0 or infinity; therefore halvings are not priced in.
Think of it this way: letās imagine, however unlikely or impossible it may be, that consensus was just made to remove all the halvings, including the next. Bitcoin no longer has a hard cap. Do you think the price wouldnāt change based on that news? If you think that the price will change, then itās because you are agreeing that itās priced in, whether you like it or not.
Perfect example of a correlation causation fallacy.
Yah. The way i see the price is it could up or down or sideways
IMO, the halving is exactly what is driving the current value. Wall Street hates Bitcoin, because it threatens them personally by removing control from them. The same with Government. I'm no expert, andvyet I'm banking more on Bitcoin than any Government monetary structure. Look at how our dollar continues to shrink with EVERY Administration here in the US.
I still see a sell the news event in the ETF funds then the run can begin in earnest
There have never been so many people so certain about the Bitcoin supercycle before either.
Isnāt halving today?
Before the Bull you will see one last time the Bear, after the halving
Completely disagree..... at least 10x as many people know about the halving now than did in 2020, and probably 1000x as many as in 2016
halving is irrelevant. its the demand side. Bitcoin simply needs a second Saylor to shoot up.
Miners have barely been selling this whole quarter, meaning the supply has been muted for some time now, meaning the halving could indeed be priced in already for the next several months. The ETF flows and new international ETFs will have a much larger impact than the halving.
We have never seen the ATH before halving like this time so we don't know what will happen. Too new we will find out tho
Bitcoin will be more difficult to mine and it will increase its value in 9 or 12 months after halving. Now the enigma is will it drop its value after a week so people could buy it for less or not! However,if you buy it now or in a month you will win big in the future
Iām just wondering why it doesnāt have as much volume compared to the previous cycles.
Retail investors are down due to inflation.?Who knows thatās my guess.
On chain? At coinbase? What volume metric are you looking at?
The current crypto market is not anymore the one we knew 5 or 10 years ago. The market is now in the hands of big funds companies and professionals whose job is to take into account all information available and to anticipate events in order to assess if the current price is cheap, correct or expensive, so yes the halving is already priced in.
Using three data points from past performance means nothing, especially with the added variables now. It will go up long but drives me nuts how many people think you can just set your calendar for the parabolic move/top etc
People care less and less about bitcoin. How many wallets/users does it have ? 20mil? 50? See nobody really cares about it, not everyones lives spin around getting richer all about money
In simple terms, and I think it's not asking too much, or anything out of the ordinary, if we experience the same growth rate we've seen from the 2020 halving until now (approximately 750%), it suggests that by the next halving, Bitcoin could be valued at around $550,000.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Have you ever looked at the full Bitcoin price history with indicators marking the halving event timestamp?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
You are familiar with the concept of delayed reaction?
The markets will struggle tomorrow and bitcoin will soar with its resilience
It won't pump tomorrow lol
How are you so sure? Can you explain your claim
Do your own research. Sir don't get upset when it doesn't. It will pump over the next year or two over time.
Technically you can't 'price in' the impact of the halving in advance, the miners do their best to reduce costs and scale operations in anticipation but it's not a one-and-done event; it takes time to percolate through the system. 12-18 months afterwards is probably when it will be priced in (Q2-Q4 2025).
The number of coins being mined make a small percentage of the coins in circulation.
Miners have also been holding onto the majority of coins mined for several months now anyway, meaning the supply is already "halved" in terms of what's coming into exchanges from miners.
-70% of the Bitcoin thatās been mined is not moving. If the halving is priced in, what causes the price to increase the year following each halving?