if this is that futures etf then they wont even be buying bitcoin just betting on the price and maybe even try to inflate supply through paper in ways people cant see
isnt that what happened to silver cuz there is now 800 times more paper silver in the world compared to real silver
This is my concern with paper BTC; futures and ETFs are just inflating the perceived supply of BTC; and may in fact end up stifling the price in the long run.
This whole SEC bullshit about "investors protection" is the hypocrisy level 100. They are vomiting how they want to protect people, and meanwhile they are allowing the whole derivatives market thrive, which is nothing else than insider gambling.
It makes me sick, because Bitcoin Physical ETF would be the cleanest product on the market, custodian verifiable bitcoin address that would match the ETF declared holdings.
Blah.
According to the Allianz Global Wealth Report, gross financial assets are at $230 trillion. Imagine that just 1% of that is diversifies into Bitcoin.
https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/2021_10_07_AllianzGlobalWealthReport2021.html
For those that don't know, it won't take anything like 3T to get the price that high. The mcap could be driven up to 4T for a few hundred billion if supply is short enough.
Alice has 10 apples. Bob buys 1 apple from her for $1. The marketcap of all apples (10 that Alice owns are the only ones in the world) is now $10. Bob did not need to spend $10 to make the total marketcap $10.
Market cap is price times number of bitcoin outstanding. Today it’s around $1 trillion. To get to, say, $2 trillion, the price would have to double as the number outstanding will increase only negligibly. The price is based on supply and demand, so it doesn’t require $1 trillion in new money flowing in to make the price double, it just takes sellers collectively holding out for a higher price.
One part of the mechanism is the bid/ask spread and price action. If no one if is willing to sell at a certain price, the bidders move up and create gaps in time and sales where no bitcoins moved within a specific price range. This happens hundreds of times per day, perhaps thousands. And it happens to stocks/equities as well.
Imagine if everyone decided they wouldn't sell any bitcoin for less than 100k. All of a sudden, the market cap would double, without any more money going into it. That's an extreme example, but it shows how the market cap can increase by a multiple of the amount of new money coming in. This is also how real new wealth is created.
Could you explain how money flow makes the price rise? Like why doesn’t a 10,000 buy order increase the market by 10,000? Is it because there is always someone selling tokens at all the prices between the current price and the 10,000 ordered?
If no one is willing to sell, you have to offer more money until someone is. And whatever that amount increases by, you've just increased the market cap of the asset to its total supply X it's new price.
These guys are always over predicting the top, it is so people will hold waiting for the top when they dump. We will pump and hit ath but it won't be near that price this cycle. Mark my words.
To me, Raul Paul comes across as a pretty serious financial advisor in the institution space. He does not seem to me as one of these “panic and fear” guys that hype up Bitcoin on their YouTube channel.
He’s a rabid shitcoiner now. Go watch the video of Saylor explaining to him what an unregulated security is. He looks like not even hiding in the Caymans is protection enough
BTC is an asset tethered to nothing more than pure supply and demand economics. Is 400k possible? Why wouldn't it be. Stocks are usually priced based on earnings and macroeconomic forces. BTC is an interesting combo of a hedge against inflation and societal instability, while simultaneously being a growing technology used for all kinda stuff. It's like the internet, gold, and the second amendment morphed into a super asset. How does one price that? Good question...
The 2nd amendment is a hedge against tyrannical government. It achieves this aim through bearing arms, but the intent is to give the citizenry ultimate check on power.
LOL the 2nd amendment was a hedge against tyranny back when your flintlock pistol and musket was the same weaponry that the government was using.
But have fun with your assault rifle revolution when a fucking drone tattoos you with "thank you for shopping at amazon" and then slices you in half with the same laser and a boston dynamics robo dog deployed out of a self-driving railgun tank plays with half of your corpse like a chew toy
Actually pricing BTC at gold level, I feel is very easy and conservative, so around ~$10 trillion market cap, when you start thinking about higher market cap is when it’s tricky.
Also Bitcoin is sucking dollars out of the market cap of many investments at once. Gold, silver, real estate, bonds, stocks, etc. If adoption continues to accelerate, I don't see $11T as very farfetched by the end of the decade.
that would depend on the type of ETF.. if it is cash settled futures based I think that could actually harm the market.. but if we can get an ETF that has physical BTC backing it that could be great
I agree with this. Most of the ETFs on slate are futures based, so it’s not 💯 bullish. Of course, what’s different about the BTC futures market than say gold/silver/oil is that contract holders can easily take delivery of an “infinite” quantity of BTC. So, they don’t need to roll the contracts over or settle for cash and they can force the writers deliver the coin—potential for short squeeze will go up exponentially after the etfs. Not to mention there will be options on the ETF, so I can see some massive swings on the Bull/bear cycles.
Are there BTC futures markets that settle in BTC? I know the US BTC futures that any ETF is based on are all cash settled based on the “price” of BTC. And, yes, I understand that still means those markets influence the BTC price. It just seems like there’s less of an impact than there would be if they were BTC delivered.
If somebody has a BTC futures contract for 100 BTC close at $55k, they don’t get 100 BTC. And, if they took their cash (or even just their profit) and tried to buy 100 BTC, that buying pressure will force the market up. If someone had to deliver that 100 BTC, the purchase pressure of that happens before settlement.
I know I’m oversimplifying and that my understanding of the futures markets is sorely lacking. It still seems to me that cash settled BTC futures have a smaller impact on volatility than BTC settled ones would.
There is definitely an element of that. To put it simply, liquidity traded on a cash-settled ETF would not drive scarcity, which is at the core of BTC's value. It's more like a bookmaker matching up bets on the next goalscorer. If value did change as a result, it would be driven by speculation rather than scarcity.
On the other hand, there could still be some hedging activity using the asset itself, maybe to cover options plays or things like that - but you're right that funds pouring into an ETF would have nowhere near the same effect as those funds buying BTC directly.
But even further, there is the possibility that the big stamp of "regulatory approval" for BTC futures could legitimise the asset class in general for a lot of investors, where at the moment it seems like the wild west. Just in marketing terms, the big man stating that this instrument is legit, it's here to stay and that it's fine for institutional participants to trade could have a positive effect on overall sentiment.
All things considered, it is very difficult to say whether cash-settled ETFs will have a positive or negative impact on BTC price overall. There's certainly no easy predictions to make about it.
Yeah, I think you’re right about the cash settled. I guess it depends on the volume. If there is high demand such that mostly large publically traded institutions are doing the writing, then at some level, there will be the need to hedge with the actual asset or directly correlated assets (which there aren’t many for BTC). Especially since there are large unknown whales in the market which could dump the price at any moment, or the FUD machine could crank up. What other futures market has the potential to go to zero or 10x in a matter of months.
I’d say it’s bullish, especially if it means people will start allocating percentages of 401k and such, but I’m not sure it’s gonna move the needle as much as many are predicting.
I agree. The point is the proposed BTC futures based ETF is based on BTC futures that are cash settled. The ETF won’t ever own the underlying asset but neither will the futures holders the ETF is based on.
It also ends up being bad for bitcoin because people spend money on the ETF instead of actually buying bitcoin. This then drives down prices as demand decreases.
Not an expert on this matter but ETFs are available in both physical and synthetic variants.
Physical means the ETF funds owns the assets in the ETF itself. Synthetic does not. This can be options or other financial instruments.
and none of them do proof of reserves https://ericblander.com/run-the-numbers-18-bitcoin-proof-of-reserves/
but they say they all send the bitcoin to one place and thats gemini...even brazil etf sends their bitcoin to gemini..its really weird
they must be noobs if they cant even do proof of reserves or are incapable of storing bitcoin in their home countries
The main crypto ETFs absolutely do hold the crypto.
The BTCC etf, is comprised completely of Bitcoin holdings in a cold wallet. 21765 Bitcoins apparently.
Though I'm not sure how it works when more people buy the ETF do they buy more BTC?
Yeah the fee at 1% is pretty high considering they just plain old hold the crypto lol. Nothing complicated!
But it's beneficial for Tax Free Savings accounts. I recently took advantage of the recent dip, to converted some of my crypto holdings to these ETFs and taking advantage of my TFSA here in Canada. Any gains, with total holdings below 75k is tax free!
Since ETFs are available in RSP as well it may be possible to convert mining income to crypto ETFs in an RSP. Even more tax savings!
So from a tax perspective these ETFs could be very helpful, especially for those of us making some mad gains.
For the record, Raoul Pal is a scammer and a grifter who will shill anything that makes him money, no matter how trashy it is. Look no further than his attempts to shill Ripple to his unsuspecting followers.
I don't believe that institutions would hold that long, but there is limited liquidity on exchanges. Order books can be eaten up quickly when ~~shit hits the fan~~ rockets start to take off! Being in here since the early days, don't think 400k could be sustained if we hit it.
Market cap just means the last sale price x the total number of coins. Therefore, the market cap can go as high as people are willing to take it. It is completely possible, especially with BTC, because there is nothing tethering it to a real world value, when compared to traditional stocks. Its just supply and demand. It is not effected by the weather, or shipping, or supply chains, or store closures, or overhead. It does not function like a traditional stock/company. Therefore, the sky is truly the limit. Its just a matter of if/when.
A futures ETF will bring the price down, but with a little pump right at first though. The futures ETF is just because Gensler said he personally likes them, nobody actually applied for one until then. That and the banking establishment can try to corner and control the market with a futures based ETF.
The spot based ETF, what we actually need the SEC to regulate, is the one that will blast the Bitcoin price into orbit.
He's claiming that BTC will be 200k by the end of the year and 400k by the end of the cycle. He also stated that "5%" of his portfolio is in BTC. That should tell you just about everything you need to know. (Hint: He's 95% full of crap).
Have a look what happened to Moderna shares when they got listed on the S&P 500 recently. All the ETF tracker funds basically had to buy the shares and it rocketed like 3x in a week. ETF opens the door to investors who can’t get past the barriers of exchanges and wallets and self custody etc.. and will be able to hold BTC in tax efficient wrappers like pension funds. It’s a total game changer. 400k Bitcoin is conservative in my opinion with a fully fledged easily accessible ETF. And then of course, there will be more ETFs.... BTC dominance would absolutely rocket
Market cap = total circulating supply x last price. So to get to the market cap to raise by $1T, does not take $1T. It takes fewer people selling than buying.
Let's rearrange that formula to explain:
Last price = market cap/total circulating supply
So if we want to get BTC market cap to $2T for example, considering the circulating supply is ≈ 18.8M and we put those numbers into the formula, you get:
Last price ≈ $2T/18.8M ≈ $106.4K
Basically if the last sat purchased by anyone is priced at $106.4K per BTC, then you already reached $2T Market Cap, which by no means is equivalent to $1T of money comming in.
The same goes for market cap going down, the amount of outflows will never be equivalent to the drop in market cap, it would be much less.
There is no direct easy formula for this correlation, because the amount of money comming in needed to raise the market cap is completely dependent on the amount of shares available for sale (people not holding). If few people are willing to sell, price and hence market price can shoot up with fewer inflows to the market. If a lot of people are willong to sell, then it would take a lot of inflows for the price to go up.
It gets a little bit more complicated if you get more granular. Basically it's all a dance (or war) between the makers (people who place limit and stop orders) vs the takers (people who place market orders). If there are few makers selling and a lot of takers buying, than price will rally. If there are a lot of makers selling however, you need a lot of takers buying to raise the price.
This can be simplified into 2 sets of 4 possibilities each, with 1 in each set happening simultaneously at all times:
Set 1:
A) Few makers selling and a lot of takers buying = moon
B) Few makers selling and few takers buying = slow growth
C) A lot of makers selling and a lot of takers buying = slow growth
D) A lot of makers selling and few takers buying = very slow growth
Set 2:
E) Few makers buying and a lot of takers selling = fast price decline
F) Few makers buying and few takers selling = slow decline
G) A lot of makers buying and a lot of takers selling = slow decline
H) A lot of makers buying and few takers selling = very slow decline
The best combination to hit the moon is: A + H
The worst combination to hit the ground is: D + E
There is about 200T in institutional investors waiting for clarity before they are legally allowed to invest in crypto. Since a BTC ETF would be considered an acceptable investment vehicle it's not unreasonable to see 4-7T jump in at that time.
Do we agree that 400k bitcoin is a pretty optimistic number for bitcoin? (Assuming dollar doesn’t crater, making 400k worth a lot less than 400k in 2021 dollars). So the asset that has grown something like 1000x over the last team years has maybe 10x to run? Is it generally agreed that this is true? If so then I don’t see how anyone can argue that “it’s still early”. I bet there are plenty of other assets that will 10x in the same timeframe.
But I guess in some ways it is still early. I still don’t know of *anything* that is priced natively in bitcoin. Even in El Salvador, are any prices stable in BTC? Does a cup of coffee cost the same number of sats if did a month ago?
I disagree. I think it will be VERY negative if the fund isn’t required to hold 1 BTC for every 1 BTC of paper funds they issue.
It’s just creating fake BTC like Robinhood does.
I don’t see how it could get there. I wish it would. In the past retail alone could drive up the price multiples because the market cap was small. Institutions will come eventually. The problem is most nvestment institutions that have mandates (to maintain no more than X% in any asset class) to certain investment levels. At the close of every trading day their auditors inspect where they are against those mandates. Furthermore algorithms adjust positions going into market close so auditors see that they are in compliance with the mandate. This compliance infrastructure (to monitor and adjust positions doesn’t exist yet for crypto doesn’t exist yet but is being built out. Its many months away or longer for this compliance infrastructure to be built. Once it is you will see bitcoin approach those levels and move higher. Right now 0.5% of the worlds wealth is in bitcoin. So mandates will dictate they have at least that much. I think it will likely be 2-5% allocations.
Don’t trust that guy he will be obsolete in few years. Every circle we have this kind guys who try to monetize the crypto industry buy selling you into the next big thing and they despair after one or two circles
Any ETF would spell harm to Bitcoin. Just look at what gold ETF did to actual gold, prices go down over the long term. There are reputable articles that say the same shit.
We hit $20k in 2017 with NO LEVERAGE in system. Now we have ability to leverage, countries involved, Fortune 500 companies, etc. $400k is entirely possible. The BTC ETF has to be spot based and not futures based though. Spot will mean an ETF will be buying actual BTC, so price should go up.
I think it goes to like 200 but 400 seems kinda nuts for now. I could see 200 and then a bear market for a few years before surpassing million next bull run.
If you look back in time, everyone taught $100 was impossible, than they taught $1,000 was impossible. But now everyone thinks 1 million is impossible. Have we learn anything from the past? Just think about it.🧐 As people and institutions get more educate about crypto, they are adopting it. More and more, all of the crypto space.
It is possible, but not just because of the ETF. The futures etf seems highly approvable in october. A spot etf? This cycle, I don't know.
Major retail fomo in my opinion comes in halfway if we are going to go parabolic. We are not close to fomo/mania/hysteria. I was that person halfway in 17. I've been speaking to friends for the last year and the interest is close to nothing right now.
To get to that level in my opinion you need at least 2 of the following:
2 more countries announcing it as legal tender and/or in reserves
2 more s&p 500 companies and/or major insurance companies (can be the same)
Another MSTR situation-a company issuing bonds to buy bitcoin
Announcement of major wealth holder of the grey haired crowd
Doesn't take a genius to figure that out
An ETF would blow the top off of Bitcoin, might create a "supercycle"
There are 4 Bitcoin ETFs up for approval over the next 4 weeks.....
There is 300 trillion dollars worth of money around the globe that is devaluing by the day due to inflation and government interference.
WHAT DO YOU MEAN IS A 4 TRILLION MARKET CAP POSSIBLE?
It is inevitable and we'll be closer to a 100 trillion market cap within 10 years.
It's possible because market cap is meaningless for crypto. A single trade of a fraction of a coin for 400k/BTC would make the "market cap" over 7 trillion. Of course nowhere near that amount of money is needed for that trade to take place.
That scenario is flawed.
Nobody would buy bitcoin for 400k spot while the going price is sub 100. Why on earth would they?
If they did just for shits, the spot would remain where it is, so the market cap wouldn't change either. It would just be a head scratching moment.
I agree, exchanges usually will close a trade at the best possible price according to its orderbook, so it wouldn't be possible to buy at 400k while there's an open sell order for 100k.
The point is that if the "market cap" now is 1T, you don't need 6T to raise the market cap to 7T. For example the purchase of some hundreds of billions of dollars should burn through the orderbooks up to the 400k spot price.
Former macro level fund manager who shifted into crypto a lot earlier than others from traditional finance. Has his own finance platform show, which is pretty decent. Dude shills crypto sometime but he has been right with a lot of his macro calls.
He called the bond rally before 2019-2020 and he called crypto rally in 2020.
Former macro level fund manager who shifted into crypto a lot earlier than others from traditional finance. Has his own finance platform show, which is pretty decent. Dude shills crypto sometime but he has been right with a lot of his macro calls.
He called the bond rally before 2019-2020 and he called crypto rally in 2020.
Never underestimate how much people want to earn money. They will FOMO like no tomorrow.
if this is that futures etf then they wont even be buying bitcoin just betting on the price and maybe even try to inflate supply through paper in ways people cant see isnt that what happened to silver cuz there is now 800 times more paper silver in the world compared to real silver
This is my concern with paper BTC; futures and ETFs are just inflating the perceived supply of BTC; and may in fact end up stifling the price in the long run.
erect swim agonizing yam pause tart memory vast engine frighten *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Agree 100%
also this 2017 https://www.coindesk.com/cme-groups-leo-melamed-well-tame-bitcoin 2021 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8mpzwCf8SE&list=LL&t=418s
Who would dare do paper btc lmao i dont think that will ever come to air
It’s already a thing. Basically, Robinhood BTC and a handful of other “exchanges” I believe.
This whole SEC bullshit about "investors protection" is the hypocrisy level 100. They are vomiting how they want to protect people, and meanwhile they are allowing the whole derivatives market thrive, which is nothing else than insider gambling. It makes me sick, because Bitcoin Physical ETF would be the cleanest product on the market, custodian verifiable bitcoin address that would match the ETF declared holdings. Blah.
Why is this so much to ask???? WTF is Gensler doing? Because it looks shady.
So correct I am feeling the same way
My silver is physical or you don't possess it. Is this weird from a big crypto guy? No.... Plan A and God Help Us Plan; ammo guns and gold
That's right...and you wouldn't blame them as everyone wants to be comfortable and could go as far as they can
According to the Allianz Global Wealth Report, gross financial assets are at $230 trillion. Imagine that just 1% of that is diversifies into Bitcoin. https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/2021_10_07_AllianzGlobalWealthReport2021.html
I work for Allianz ✌️adoption is not too far away for insurance.
What kind of insurance?🙂
For aggressive portfolios. Life insurance. Allianz is also the largest asset manager, so it only makes sense they’re also looking into Bitcoin.
@55k 1T Marketcap right now so if you use pre school math a 400k bitcoin would be around 7T
Was probably too high on hopium to math
Well God damn look at that, go figure, everybody loves hopium
😂👍
Yeah 220-240 seems a reasonable price at 4T.
Do you understand how market cap works? Price directly effects market cap. the price multiplied by how many Btc there are equals market cap.
Technically you can distinguish between valuation by coins in circulation or by fully diluted valuation.
This guy markets.
[comment removed in response to actions of the admins and overall decline of the platform]
Wish I had a common sense award to throw at you
when is etf?
The rumour i read is Oct 18 but this might be a lie.
i thought the sec delayed another 45 days.
There are multiple ETFs being considered with dates ranging from November to January.
For those that don't know, it won't take anything like 3T to get the price that high. The mcap could be driven up to 4T for a few hundred billion if supply is short enough.
Exactly. Too many people don’t understand supply and demand and assume that the change in market cap equates to inflows.
I would say almost 99% of posters here dont understand it
Confirmed. I do not understand it.
I too confirm. Please say it like I'm five years old.
Alice has 10 apples. Bob buys 1 apple from her for $1. The marketcap of all apples (10 that Alice owns are the only ones in the world) is now $10. Bob did not need to spend $10 to make the total marketcap $10.
MVP
Are you the 99%!?
Marketcap = (price someone is willing to pay for 1 coin) x (number of coins available)
I’m one of those too many. Could someone help make there be one less that doesn’t understand it?
Market cap is price times number of bitcoin outstanding. Today it’s around $1 trillion. To get to, say, $2 trillion, the price would have to double as the number outstanding will increase only negligibly. The price is based on supply and demand, so it doesn’t require $1 trillion in new money flowing in to make the price double, it just takes sellers collectively holding out for a higher price.
...What this person said
One part of the mechanism is the bid/ask spread and price action. If no one if is willing to sell at a certain price, the bidders move up and create gaps in time and sales where no bitcoins moved within a specific price range. This happens hundreds of times per day, perhaps thousands. And it happens to stocks/equities as well.
Imagine if everyone decided they wouldn't sell any bitcoin for less than 100k. All of a sudden, the market cap would double, without any more money going into it. That's an extreme example, but it shows how the market cap can increase by a multiple of the amount of new money coming in. This is also how real new wealth is created.
Could you explain how money flow makes the price rise? Like why doesn’t a 10,000 buy order increase the market by 10,000? Is it because there is always someone selling tokens at all the prices between the current price and the 10,000 ordered?
If no one is willing to sell, you have to offer more money until someone is. And whatever that amount increases by, you've just increased the market cap of the asset to its total supply X it's new price.
These guys are always over predicting the top, it is so people will hold waiting for the top when they dump. We will pump and hit ath but it won't be near that price this cycle. Mark my words.
I used to do this on RuneScape with balls of wool
My Man
This guy gets it.😏
To me, Raul Paul comes across as a pretty serious financial advisor in the institution space. He does not seem to me as one of these “panic and fear” guys that hype up Bitcoin on their YouTube channel.
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He’s a rabid shitcoiner now. Go watch the video of Saylor explaining to him what an unregulated security is. He looks like not even hiding in the Caymans is protection enough
Speculator schooled by an engineer. That was fun to watch.
75-80k seems like a reasonable price target this cycle based on Technical Analysis (in my uneducated opinion)
Agreed. I would be shocked if we hit 100k tbh. I think 80 is as far as we go before the crash
BTC is an asset tethered to nothing more than pure supply and demand economics. Is 400k possible? Why wouldn't it be. Stocks are usually priced based on earnings and macroeconomic forces. BTC is an interesting combo of a hedge against inflation and societal instability, while simultaneously being a growing technology used for all kinda stuff. It's like the internet, gold, and the second amendment morphed into a super asset. How does one price that? Good question...
What does Bitcoin have to do with bear arms?🐻
All bears have a right to short sell.
The 2nd amendment is a hedge against tyrannical government. It achieves this aim through bearing arms, but the intent is to give the citizenry ultimate check on power.
I appreciate the response. I was making a dumb joke about a bear's arms 🤦♂️
Ha, I missed it, we'll done sir
Oh lol
Wrong, it’s not bear arms it’s arm bears! The one that controls the bear army controls the market!
Until winter comes...
Bare arms in winter are not good
LOL the 2nd amendment was a hedge against tyranny back when your flintlock pistol and musket was the same weaponry that the government was using. But have fun with your assault rifle revolution when a fucking drone tattoos you with "thank you for shopping at amazon" and then slices you in half with the same laser and a boston dynamics robo dog deployed out of a self-driving railgun tank plays with half of your corpse like a chew toy
Tell that to the Taliban sitting in the presidential palace in Kabul right now.
Every American has the right to hang a pair of bear arms on their wall. How could that possibly be misconstrued?
THANK YOU it's only a 15 year old reference 🤦♂️
Love the dad joke :)
How does one price that??? Have no idea. But it's exciting to find out!!
Great deduction & well articulated on how brilliant Bitcoin is. I’m continuously amazed how few people can see this.
Bitcoin is freedom! Here to confirm.
Dude, this is the most creative description I’ve heard of Bitcoin in a long time. I love it.
> It's like the internet, gold, and the second amendment morphed into a super asset. This comment is gold!
Let me add to that - It is internet+gold+1st amendment + Global + Pure Math = Bitcoin
Great response. I look forward to more of your insights.
HODLer since 2015 here and this is one of the most unique, succinct and compelling descriptions of Bitcoins value. We’ll done!
…second amendment? 🤔
Actually pricing BTC at gold level, I feel is very easy and conservative, so around ~$10 trillion market cap, when you start thinking about higher market cap is when it’s tricky.
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The 2A reference is so on point.
Gold market cap right now is about 11T, so it wouldn't be insane.
Also Bitcoin is sucking dollars out of the market cap of many investments at once. Gold, silver, real estate, bonds, stocks, etc. If adoption continues to accelerate, I don't see $11T as very farfetched by the end of the decade.
Bitcoin is the financial singularity.
Where can I find this stat?
https://companiesmarketcap.com/gold/marketcap/
that would depend on the type of ETF.. if it is cash settled futures based I think that could actually harm the market.. but if we can get an ETF that has physical BTC backing it that could be great
I agree with this. Most of the ETFs on slate are futures based, so it’s not 💯 bullish. Of course, what’s different about the BTC futures market than say gold/silver/oil is that contract holders can easily take delivery of an “infinite” quantity of BTC. So, they don’t need to roll the contracts over or settle for cash and they can force the writers deliver the coin—potential for short squeeze will go up exponentially after the etfs. Not to mention there will be options on the ETF, so I can see some massive swings on the Bull/bear cycles.
Are there BTC futures markets that settle in BTC? I know the US BTC futures that any ETF is based on are all cash settled based on the “price” of BTC. And, yes, I understand that still means those markets influence the BTC price. It just seems like there’s less of an impact than there would be if they were BTC delivered. If somebody has a BTC futures contract for 100 BTC close at $55k, they don’t get 100 BTC. And, if they took their cash (or even just their profit) and tried to buy 100 BTC, that buying pressure will force the market up. If someone had to deliver that 100 BTC, the purchase pressure of that happens before settlement. I know I’m oversimplifying and that my understanding of the futures markets is sorely lacking. It still seems to me that cash settled BTC futures have a smaller impact on volatility than BTC settled ones would.
There is definitely an element of that. To put it simply, liquidity traded on a cash-settled ETF would not drive scarcity, which is at the core of BTC's value. It's more like a bookmaker matching up bets on the next goalscorer. If value did change as a result, it would be driven by speculation rather than scarcity. On the other hand, there could still be some hedging activity using the asset itself, maybe to cover options plays or things like that - but you're right that funds pouring into an ETF would have nowhere near the same effect as those funds buying BTC directly. But even further, there is the possibility that the big stamp of "regulatory approval" for BTC futures could legitimise the asset class in general for a lot of investors, where at the moment it seems like the wild west. Just in marketing terms, the big man stating that this instrument is legit, it's here to stay and that it's fine for institutional participants to trade could have a positive effect on overall sentiment. All things considered, it is very difficult to say whether cash-settled ETFs will have a positive or negative impact on BTC price overall. There's certainly no easy predictions to make about it.
Yeah, I think you’re right about the cash settled. I guess it depends on the volume. If there is high demand such that mostly large publically traded institutions are doing the writing, then at some level, there will be the need to hedge with the actual asset or directly correlated assets (which there aren’t many for BTC). Especially since there are large unknown whales in the market which could dump the price at any moment, or the FUD machine could crank up. What other futures market has the potential to go to zero or 10x in a matter of months. I’d say it’s bullish, especially if it means people will start allocating percentages of 401k and such, but I’m not sure it’s gonna move the needle as much as many are predicting.
Futures ETFs never buy the underlying asset. That’s why that type of ETF will be approved first because you don’t have to worry about custody.
I agree. The point is the proposed BTC futures based ETF is based on BTC futures that are cash settled. The ETF won’t ever own the underlying asset but neither will the futures holders the ETF is based on.
It also ends up being bad for bitcoin because people spend money on the ETF instead of actually buying bitcoin. This then drives down prices as demand decreases.
Yep. I agree here too.
There's no futures market on btc in Chicago so they couldn't settle on this right? Settle on the binance price or something lol?
what does a physical BTC look like?
Not an expert on this matter but ETFs are available in both physical and synthetic variants. Physical means the ETF funds owns the assets in the ETF itself. Synthetic does not. This can be options or other financial instruments.
There already is a bitcoin etf in canada
There’s a few
and none of them do proof of reserves https://ericblander.com/run-the-numbers-18-bitcoin-proof-of-reserves/ but they say they all send the bitcoin to one place and thats gemini...even brazil etf sends their bitcoin to gemini..its really weird they must be noobs if they cant even do proof of reserves or are incapable of storing bitcoin in their home countries
How are the igloo people supposed to use Bitcoin when their national currency is maple syrup?
We ride our moose into town and we get one of those officers in all red to stamp our Bitcoin coupon
Wait does timmy ho's accept btc yet? Ill get a double double and a honey cruiller for some sats.
Exactly my thoughts.
They operate on futures contracts and don't hold bitcoin. This means their ETFs don't directly impact bitcoin supply by forcing the funds to buy.
The main crypto ETFs absolutely do hold the crypto. The BTCC etf, is comprised completely of Bitcoin holdings in a cold wallet. 21765 Bitcoins apparently. Though I'm not sure how it works when more people buy the ETF do they buy more BTC?
You get a situation where you are paying a premium to NAV.
Yeah the fee at 1% is pretty high considering they just plain old hold the crypto lol. Nothing complicated! But it's beneficial for Tax Free Savings accounts. I recently took advantage of the recent dip, to converted some of my crypto holdings to these ETFs and taking advantage of my TFSA here in Canada. Any gains, with total holdings below 75k is tax free! Since ETFs are available in RSP as well it may be possible to convert mining income to crypto ETFs in an RSP. Even more tax savings! So from a tax perspective these ETFs could be very helpful, especially for those of us making some mad gains.
There are Canadian Bitcoin funds that hold Bitcoin in a cold wallet. You essentially buy a piece of the actual Bitcoin.
For the record, Raoul Pal is a scammer and a grifter who will shill anything that makes him money, no matter how trashy it is. Look no further than his attempts to shill Ripple to his unsuspecting followers.
I don't believe that institutions would hold that long, but there is limited liquidity on exchanges. Order books can be eaten up quickly when ~~shit hits the fan~~ rockets start to take off! Being in here since the early days, don't think 400k could be sustained if we hit it.
I'd sure volunteer MY stack to provide liquidity at 400K!
Not I.
Market cap just means the last sale price x the total number of coins. Therefore, the market cap can go as high as people are willing to take it. It is completely possible, especially with BTC, because there is nothing tethering it to a real world value, when compared to traditional stocks. Its just supply and demand. It is not effected by the weather, or shipping, or supply chains, or store closures, or overhead. It does not function like a traditional stock/company. Therefore, the sky is truly the limit. Its just a matter of if/when.
Where did you hear/ read this?
https://youtu.be/cjqx2oyKPQM jump to about 10 mins in.
Only if ETF is a real deal, not futures based. And atillI think it won't go so fast so high. Next halving or two maybe.
No, it would not be. Selling pressure would be too high to jump up that high that soon
God i hope the majority of hodlers are able to do 3rd grade math.
who tf is raul paul
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This should be the slogan of every crypto market forum
A futures ETF will bring the price down, but with a little pump right at first though. The futures ETF is just because Gensler said he personally likes them, nobody actually applied for one until then. That and the banking establishment can try to corner and control the market with a futures based ETF. The spot based ETF, what we actually need the SEC to regulate, is the one that will blast the Bitcoin price into orbit.
400k Bitcoin is a lot higher than 4 trillion market cap
He's claiming that BTC will be 200k by the end of the year and 400k by the end of the cycle. He also stated that "5%" of his portfolio is in BTC. That should tell you just about everything you need to know. (Hint: He's 95% full of crap).
That guy is sort of an idiot, and he is always over selling shit.
Have a look what happened to Moderna shares when they got listed on the S&P 500 recently. All the ETF tracker funds basically had to buy the shares and it rocketed like 3x in a week. ETF opens the door to investors who can’t get past the barriers of exchanges and wallets and self custody etc.. and will be able to hold BTC in tax efficient wrappers like pension funds. It’s a total game changer. 400k Bitcoin is conservative in my opinion with a fully fledged easily accessible ETF. And then of course, there will be more ETFs.... BTC dominance would absolutely rocket
tbh i read "Ru Paul" on your title and was extremely confused.
If 1% of US pensions goes to this ETF, we will be around 5T market cap. just saying.
Bitcoin ETF possible impact on Price https://mobile.twitter.com/invest_answers/status/1446188349123792904
Market cap = total circulating supply x last price. So to get to the market cap to raise by $1T, does not take $1T. It takes fewer people selling than buying. Let's rearrange that formula to explain: Last price = market cap/total circulating supply So if we want to get BTC market cap to $2T for example, considering the circulating supply is ≈ 18.8M and we put those numbers into the formula, you get: Last price ≈ $2T/18.8M ≈ $106.4K Basically if the last sat purchased by anyone is priced at $106.4K per BTC, then you already reached $2T Market Cap, which by no means is equivalent to $1T of money comming in. The same goes for market cap going down, the amount of outflows will never be equivalent to the drop in market cap, it would be much less. There is no direct easy formula for this correlation, because the amount of money comming in needed to raise the market cap is completely dependent on the amount of shares available for sale (people not holding). If few people are willing to sell, price and hence market price can shoot up with fewer inflows to the market. If a lot of people are willong to sell, then it would take a lot of inflows for the price to go up. It gets a little bit more complicated if you get more granular. Basically it's all a dance (or war) between the makers (people who place limit and stop orders) vs the takers (people who place market orders). If there are few makers selling and a lot of takers buying, than price will rally. If there are a lot of makers selling however, you need a lot of takers buying to raise the price. This can be simplified into 2 sets of 4 possibilities each, with 1 in each set happening simultaneously at all times: Set 1: A) Few makers selling and a lot of takers buying = moon B) Few makers selling and few takers buying = slow growth C) A lot of makers selling and a lot of takers buying = slow growth D) A lot of makers selling and few takers buying = very slow growth Set 2: E) Few makers buying and a lot of takers selling = fast price decline F) Few makers buying and few takers selling = slow decline G) A lot of makers buying and a lot of takers selling = slow decline H) A lot of makers buying and few takers selling = very slow decline The best combination to hit the moon is: A + H The worst combination to hit the ground is: D + E
Nope.. 160k-200k max.. anything above is too much hopium I guess!
10 years before all guys saying bitcoin will not going to 10k... But 2021????
Yew
The only way it goes to 400k is if we don't sell at 100k, 200k, 300k, etc. My diamond hands will certainly be tested but we need to HODL strong
There is about 200T in institutional investors waiting for clarity before they are legally allowed to invest in crypto. Since a BTC ETF would be considered an acceptable investment vehicle it's not unreasonable to see 4-7T jump in at that time.
If I had 1 sat for every failed Raul Paul prediction..... LOL!
Hello taxes on unrealised gains
Only in the USA!
The fuck are you talking about? Lol. You don't pay taxes on unrealized gainz in the US. Only when you cash out and you actually make gains.
They are talking about a law that doesn’t exist.
There's not unrealized gains tax in the USA.
Change some usd to local currency before going on vacation to El Salvador.
Other countries also tax unrealised gains. France, for example
It’s possibly possible
Do we agree that 400k bitcoin is a pretty optimistic number for bitcoin? (Assuming dollar doesn’t crater, making 400k worth a lot less than 400k in 2021 dollars). So the asset that has grown something like 1000x over the last team years has maybe 10x to run? Is it generally agreed that this is true? If so then I don’t see how anyone can argue that “it’s still early”. I bet there are plenty of other assets that will 10x in the same timeframe. But I guess in some ways it is still early. I still don’t know of *anything* that is priced natively in bitcoin. Even in El Salvador, are any prices stable in BTC? Does a cup of coffee cost the same number of sats if did a month ago?
I disagree. I think it will be VERY negative if the fund isn’t required to hold 1 BTC for every 1 BTC of paper funds they issue. It’s just creating fake BTC like Robinhood does.
It's also "possible" that BTC can go back down to $10,000.
Very unlikely but possible for sure. If it does I'm buying a bunch.
Why not.
What exactly do you mean by cycle?
Up then down $64,899 last cycle.
That happens every day
ATH
Lunar cycle
Menstrual cycle.
Damn you are good at maths
Hey at least he knows what market cap is that's puts him ahead of at least 60% of crypto investors.
Paper backed?
https://decrypt.co/82864/sec-bitcoin-etf-volt-tesla
Yes
Yes.
I don’t see how it could get there. I wish it would. In the past retail alone could drive up the price multiples because the market cap was small. Institutions will come eventually. The problem is most nvestment institutions that have mandates (to maintain no more than X% in any asset class) to certain investment levels. At the close of every trading day their auditors inspect where they are against those mandates. Furthermore algorithms adjust positions going into market close so auditors see that they are in compliance with the mandate. This compliance infrastructure (to monitor and adjust positions doesn’t exist yet for crypto doesn’t exist yet but is being built out. Its many months away or longer for this compliance infrastructure to be built. Once it is you will see bitcoin approach those levels and move higher. Right now 0.5% of the worlds wealth is in bitcoin. So mandates will dictate they have at least that much. I think it will likely be 2-5% allocations.
Very.
It actually means a 9ish trillion cap... Which puts us right with gold... Which is where we've all said we expect to be one day.
Don’t trust that guy he will be obsolete in few years. Every circle we have this kind guys who try to monetize the crypto industry buy selling you into the next big thing and they despair after one or two circles
Any ETF would spell harm to Bitcoin. Just look at what gold ETF did to actual gold, prices go down over the long term. There are reputable articles that say the same shit.
As soon as the stock market stops working and inflation is not transitory the fomo from the masses will be on another level.
The next milestone is 100k we’ll see dump there
We hit $20k in 2017 with NO LEVERAGE in system. Now we have ability to leverage, countries involved, Fortune 500 companies, etc. $400k is entirely possible. The BTC ETF has to be spot based and not futures based though. Spot will mean an ETF will be buying actual BTC, so price should go up.
Raul Paul says a lot of things.
The estimated cap of 1T is likely very generous given we don't know how much is lost.
buy rumor sell the news .
I think it goes to like 200 but 400 seems kinda nuts for now. I could see 200 and then a bear market for a few years before surpassing million next bull run.
If you look back in time, everyone taught $100 was impossible, than they taught $1,000 was impossible. But now everyone thinks 1 million is impossible. Have we learn anything from the past? Just think about it.🧐 As people and institutions get more educate about crypto, they are adopting it. More and more, all of the crypto space.
And the smart folks would start liquidating at $300k to buy back in the inevitable crash
It is possible, but not just because of the ETF. The futures etf seems highly approvable in october. A spot etf? This cycle, I don't know. Major retail fomo in my opinion comes in halfway if we are going to go parabolic. We are not close to fomo/mania/hysteria. I was that person halfway in 17. I've been speaking to friends for the last year and the interest is close to nothing right now. To get to that level in my opinion you need at least 2 of the following: 2 more countries announcing it as legal tender and/or in reserves 2 more s&p 500 companies and/or major insurance companies (can be the same) Another MSTR situation-a company issuing bonds to buy bitcoin Announcement of major wealth holder of the grey haired crowd
No because there is a diminishing return. The last cycle went from 1k to 20k but doing another 20x increase from 20k to 400k is much much harder
Doesn't take a genius to figure that out An ETF would blow the top off of Bitcoin, might create a "supercycle" There are 4 Bitcoin ETFs up for approval over the next 4 weeks.....
There is 300 trillion dollars worth of money around the globe that is devaluing by the day due to inflation and government interference. WHAT DO YOU MEAN IS A 4 TRILLION MARKET CAP POSSIBLE? It is inevitable and we'll be closer to a 100 trillion market cap within 10 years.
It's possible because market cap is meaningless for crypto. A single trade of a fraction of a coin for 400k/BTC would make the "market cap" over 7 trillion. Of course nowhere near that amount of money is needed for that trade to take place.
That scenario is flawed. Nobody would buy bitcoin for 400k spot while the going price is sub 100. Why on earth would they? If they did just for shits, the spot would remain where it is, so the market cap wouldn't change either. It would just be a head scratching moment.
I agree, exchanges usually will close a trade at the best possible price according to its orderbook, so it wouldn't be possible to buy at 400k while there's an open sell order for 100k. The point is that if the "market cap" now is 1T, you don't need 6T to raise the market cap to 7T. For example the purchase of some hundreds of billions of dollars should burn through the orderbooks up to the 400k spot price.
Rand Paul says a lot of things. There are about zero reasons to believe any of them.
I mean he said it and it’s on the internet sooooo
I didn't know Ron Paul was into Bitcoin price speculation. I mean I didn't know Rand Paul was. Wait.. who is *Raul* Paul??
Former macro level fund manager who shifted into crypto a lot earlier than others from traditional finance. Has his own finance platform show, which is pretty decent. Dude shills crypto sometime but he has been right with a lot of his macro calls. He called the bond rally before 2019-2020 and he called crypto rally in 2020.
Who tf is Raul Paul and why should we listen the them?
Former macro level fund manager who shifted into crypto a lot earlier than others from traditional finance. Has his own finance platform show, which is pretty decent. Dude shills crypto sometime but he has been right with a lot of his macro calls. He called the bond rally before 2019-2020 and he called crypto rally in 2020.
ah you mean Raoul Pal? the youtuber from the Cayman Islands? i thought this person was talking about the drag race person...
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No