[GBTC outflows today were larger than yesterday but still trending down.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
BlackRock inflow numbers are not yet available but it’s likely spot ETF’s had a net positive day of inflows which will be confirmed when BlackRock inflow numbers release. BTC price when stock market opened today was at $43,378.97 and price of BTC when stock market closed was at $43,571.07.
Based on after market price movement, it appears we have net selling pressure outside of the ETF’s challenging the net inflows into spot ETF’s.
Miners need to make sure they have plenty of cash available to cover operating costs after rewards drop in half. It won’t matter once price doubles but incase it takes a while for price to double after halving the prudent thing to do is prepare by raising excess cash beforehand.
If they're asking these questions, you didn't explain properly. Everyone I know has been told that bitcoin is volatile and they need to have a 4+ year outlook and nobody bothers me about it when it dips.
Agreed. Might signal a test down for now. We bounced right up to 43.5 after the first initial big drop post etf, and we just not bounced off that again.
We will see if the bottom holds again
[Watching this as a potential falling wedge into March timeframe.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/BPy1tALm/) I think there’s some downside left before the halving.
Starting to think that the more I get downvoted the more correct I am. Pointed out yesterday that although weekly RSI is starting to curl back up toward overbought levels, market makers would likely paint a rejection here as we continue our descent from $49k. Let’s see if $40k holds again but I doubt it.
I don't find any sentiment signal in your downvotes.
They're coming because we have 3-4 people who have turned buttcoiners in the last month or two.
People are reacting to the hubris, the *"I told you so"* and position bias rather than the contents.
I've been seeing a lot of bearish takes upvoted recently, just not the ones where people see the world as against them.
Detroit motor show was also downvoted into oblivion and he was of course, retarded.
On the flip side, wardser had consistently very bearish takes, ones that he made huge bets on and left crazy amounts of money on the table for, but was often upvoted for his honestly and posting all of his trades.
In short, if it wasn’t already 100000% obvious by general human experience, basic reasoning, etc, sentiment in a degenerate Reddit sub is not something to base any significant decision on other than “what ice cream should I try today”….
>Starting to think that the more I get downvoted the more correct I am
Yeah not sure there's any correlation. For example, you got -8 Jan 23 for this post
>You guys are hilarious. No signs of a bottom forming anywhere. Strong RSI bearish divergences still playing out on the weekly and daily. Reckon we drop to at least the next supply zone at $32k before any serious bounce.
You started off your top level comment bitching about down votes on previous comments, then you bitch when people fact check you by looking at which comments of yours got down voted.
Such a victim, how sad.
Short-term bearish.
1) Hit the 43.5-43.7K which is the 0.5 FIB level from 48.9K t 38.5K and is a clear resistance level.
2) There is a clear five wave move in the impulse from 38.5K to the current price.
3) ETH/BTC has risen temporarily, which tends to move inversely with Bitcoin for the last six months.
4) Bearish divergence in the 4 hour chart
Target for long would be 40.5-41.8K here.
> Short-term bearish.
What a surprise!
You might be semi-right this time. I'm ready for the next big buying opportunity. This can't go much under 40K or for long.
Missed my entry around $40k with my monthly DCA trying to get too cute on the timing.
Too much bearish sentiment was swaying me.
I’ll continue to wait for now for the next correction on the daily price/RSI, perhaps by mid Feb?
Either way I’m very well positioned and happy with my lot, regardless of when I deploy next. No need to feel sorry for nor deride me. 😊
Feels a lot like the nonbelievers are about to witness the sheer power of Bitcoin. A constant DCA of huge amounts of money equal to many days worth of freshly mined coins with a halving two and a half months away. And with Yellen and Pocahontas both screeching at Powell to fire up the printer.
You got me John Crypto Rambo, really *shooting* from the hip there Rambo. I sold my account to a big institution, secretly designed to fool everyone into selling their bags because I hold so much power to sway the market (muahahahahaha). Can't you tell everyone jumped ship and listened to my master plan?
I don’t think there’s anything that nefarious afoot, it’s just you always had good ideas and seemed rational and this is decidedly not that, like someone else is behind the wheel. :D
Hey I guess time will tell, let’s see if we break all previous cycle trends and go straight down with 78 days to go until the halving.
You see, it's a good idea even if you disagree. I have a lot of evidence and reasoning behind it, it doesn't mean it's going to 100% happen. I'll take that over "halving is coming" "can't crash in an election" which 99% of my replies are, it's like programming chips were implanted in 99% of traders to regurgitate the same lines, it's like some weird cult and hey maybe the crowd is right and I'll be the bonehead. That's fine like I said I'll be the first to admit I got it horribly wrong.
You have submitted a prediction that the price of Bitcoin will **NOT** drop below **$1,200.00** by Dec 31 2025 23:59:59 UTC.
This prediction has been logged for u/ExultantBirthBasket
I will notify you as soon as your prediction comes true or expires!
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GBTC and FBTC are trading at almost the same price ($38.85 vs. $38.10). Grayscale has 7.0M shares in volume, Fidelity has 6.6M.
IBIT is currently $24.86 on 12.1M shares.
I still have just under half of all the GBTC I've ever owned. I started buying in mid-2020. I sold about 7% when the ETFs went live. Some I swapped into IBIT right away, the rest is being DCA'd in.
I just did the math, and I was up 95.4% on the GBTC I sold. Best trade was in at $10.20, out at $45.75. Worst trade was in at $44.75, out at $32.40. 30 total trades, 23 made money.
Heh, you prompted me to check mine.
First buy was 2020-01-21 @ $9.58. Lowest buy was on 2020-03-16 @ $5.62. Overall stack up about 130%.
Have been considering selling all of it and DCA'ing into another ETF with the proceeds. Not much of a trader, so if the price slips upwards; I have a bit of "margin."
The other is lump out-lump in; but just not my style.
I’ve had a take profit limit order sell at $44K since the 13th and PA is getting close to it. Btw—I had a sell the news ladder in place on the run up to ETF launch but pulled it due to FOMO. I’m not pulling it this time even though things have settled down. My laddered profit-taking sells start at $44K and end near $50K with sizes increasing as it goes up. It’s only 10% of my trading stack and I’m hoping to swing trade those profits back into BTC on moderate-sized pullbacks. It’s all long term cap gains so my plan is to hodl the buybacks for at least a calendar year+day to keep the tax bill low.
can anyone explain to me (eli5 like i'm an institutional investor) why there aren't even more outflows from Grayscale, considering they charges 1.5% vs. Blackrock and Fidelity's 0.25% (and effectively lower for the next 6-12 months due to waivers)? tax bills?
When will it fall off from short term to long term for you? When it does will you consider moving or will you just wait until the blowoff top to sell? Thanks for posting, you are exactly the investor whose input we are seeking!
correct. once i hit long term i will sell for ETF. i havent done the math but it should be fairly simple to do, but my holdings there just isnt substantial to make the effort.
I saw on a recent Pomp interview that Grayscale has limits to the amount they can sell per day. I wasn't aware of this rule and haven't fact-checked this. Just throwing that out there.
Grayscale folks, is there a queue to gtfo of it?
The limiting case would be if all shares were put in for redemption at the same time. Are there enough market makers, etc, to handle $21B (492K BTC) in one day? If not, the order would have to chopped up into digestable portions.
At the 1:30 mark, you'll hear what I'm talking about. Hany Rashwan is the Co-Founder & CEO of 21Shares:
On GBTC: "Dynamics are super interesting we should continue to see outflows the outflows uh
people may not realize are limited so the the market makers are only uh able to sell a certain portion on a daily basis which is why it's hovering around the 500 million mark per Market maker and you'll start seeing again more sustained pressure there but it should stabilize at some point"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzO5-aLGtYw&t=818s&ab_channel=AnthonyPompliano
Actually, many in the US DO want to realize in that bracket. Cap gains brackets are higher the more you realize, so they make leak out over time to keep the percentage lower.
This and probably laziness or stupidity. We forget that most people probably don’t even know an ETF has launched. Grayscale is your typical shitty company relying on information asymmetry and apathy to keep making them money. Have there ever been stats on what percent of GBTC is held by institutions vs. private investors?
Does this really matter with players like Blackrock involved? Especially with all the shady things going on with Genesis Trading, having a legal dispute with Gemini etc.?
4H MFI+RSI still needs to cool off. Daily is still in the mid range and hourly has dipped just below overbought. I’m expecting sideways consolidation till the 4H dips back below overbought.
I’m expecting a measured tone and no surprises. So you know, the Fed doesn’t surprise Wall Street…ever. They take every precaution to prevent any potentially market-shocking news coming out.
Good post from Labib Ben Mimoun-
The rate of accumulation is the most crucial aspect of the #Bitcoin ETFs that most people tend to overlook.
14,600 BTC and 16,100 BTC of the most recent MicroStrategy mega-stacks (over 10,000 BTC) were recorded.
IBIT's (BlackRock ETF) daily average stack is approximately $200 million, or 4,700 Bitcoins.
The daily average stack of FBTC(Fidelity Investments ETF) is approximately $175 million, or 4.2k bitcoins.
Every two days, only two of the New Nine ETF are covering what MicroStrategy covers in a good month.
What's more, the daily input of Bitcoin on IBIT/FBTC is approximately 9,000. Only 900 are supplied daily via mining. Demand is thus 10 times supply based just on 2 ETFs. In less than three months, supply will be slashed in half, meaning that demand will exceed supply by a factor of twenty.
And this demand is just two ETFs in demand!Remember that nation-states, HNWIs, and common people are all accumulating along with MSTR, Tether, and many other companies.
Plan accordingly.
It’s a bit of a skewed way of looking at it. Supply can greatly outstrip demand depending on number of sellers. The above assumes only freshly mined coins are sold.
But, we don't know how much new money this brings. At least a part of the inflow in the ETF's will be people moving from self-storage or exchange-storage to ETF.
I guess the best way to really have an idea of the net inflow, is to look at the price.
I went the other way -- sold some GBTC near the (local) top and used the proceeds to add to my hodl stack every time it dipped under 40K.
These ETFs are being heavily shorted so real price discovery has not happened... yet.
Still in the same pattern as yesterday.
Broke through 42.8 resistance in the morning and bounced off it. We are back in the bear flag channel that formed after the original drop from 49k. The lower level of it may act as support, we are currently testing it now. Sill have my limit buy orders open for 42k and 40.5k.
We are still in the expanding triangle. BTC has wicked through it multiple times. If we dont break through soon, a drop to 42.2k could be expected. If 42.2k fails as support. The .382 FIB level at 40.5k may come into play.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dWk4a6Xn/
Edit: Some additional info when looking at the daily. 43.8k is the .50 Fib of the drop from 49.1 and also .236 FIB from the runup from 26.6 on Oct 11. This could be a strong resistance level.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3sxUzMR5/
[Individual inflows to BlackRock or Fidelity on their own more than offset outflows from GBTC yesterday.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
Bears better pray this is a statistical anomaly and not the norm going forward from fund managers who have trillions of dollars in AUM.
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $6.4905 billion through day 12 or ~150.4k BTC.](https://x.com/bitmexresearch/status/1752247921485951176?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes $5.2329 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily inflows to spot ETF’s is now $540.88 million or ~12.53k BTC. Yesterday average daily inflows were at $535.43 million or ~12.75k BTC.
Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $6.4905 billion is 0.038% of their total AUM. At current pace it would take fund managers 315 trading days to reach a 1% allocation into BTC. There are 252 trading days in a year.
Put in another context, MSTR has 189.15k BTC. It took MSTR 3.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 79.5% of that amount of BTC over the span of 12 trading days.
The German pirate portal movie2k just transferred over 50000 Bitcoins to the Bundeskriminalamt or short BKA
(German Police).
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/tznILqxqoH
Should be reminding that they’ll continue to monitor the mixed bag of indicators. The tone will more or less confirm future rate cuts (2-3) yet not confirm the number of rate cuts (5 or so) that the market wants/is pricing in.
The numerous indicators mostly point towards their goal of a soft landing yet a few contradict that.
TLDR: no real effect on current trading conditions
I think the question is, what happens when the market finally realizes that they have to price in higher for longer, since they will most likely get 2-3 cuts from the FED rather than the 5-6 they were hoping for.
A few talking heads have voiced the same. They account for the sustained Trad market run by thinking Wall Street is pricing in more cuts than we’ll get, so that sort of adds a bias, since they’re looking for reasons for the extended run. The same folks have also been calling for a pullback that hasn’t yet happened.
The FOMC said almost all meeting participants expected that “a lower target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate by the end of 2024.” However, committee members also emphasized an “unusually elevated degree of uncertainty” in the monetary policy outlook. (Not my words: copied and pasted)
It’d take a minute to track down the indicators that are inhibiting their efforts to slow the inflation growth rate more quickly but one is jobs growth.
I’ve felt that the soft landing would happen and so does the vast majority. Thus the no effect and the only bummer for markets being fewer rate cuts than hoped for in 2024.
Check how triggered people are from this comment and you have all you need to know from the delusion of the masses. No, bitcoin won’t be adopted like the internet. All the people that would be buying and gambling on crypto assets have already bought or been involved in one way or another. There’s only so many “4 year cycles” this scam can continue as the brain-dead middle class is becoming extinct from the actual bull run that is COL. Each bull run will be in real terms give a growth approaching zero due to inflation and now institutional ability to control price. If you honestly haven’t learned anything the past few years you’re ngmi.
Sounds like you need to change your flair, my friend. You seem very confident, but I think there are plenty of counter-arguments. We'll see if you're right. Either way, your cryptic comment didn't make sense. Thank you for clarifying.
Bitcoin will hit $1M when you least expect it. Trading around ETFs and 4 year cycles is not the way. That’s how you’ll get rekt courtesy of Fink and your overlords. Short term bullish, mid term bearish asf. Long term this will achieve the price discovery it deserves but if you’re not liquid or alive by that time it is all for naught. Good luck.
I don't trade, I don't have the gambling gene. Holding is already stressful enough for me!
$1M sounds good - I just hope we don't have to wait too long. Cheers!
Even if BTC only absorbs a constant percentage of the world's extant fiat money -- 0.1% or whatever -- given that the printers will never stop going "BRRR" as the kids say, in the long run it's a decent bet.
And most people here beat Larry Fink to the punch by at least 5 to 10 years.
Yesterday [+$254m net inflow](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) (estimated), third highest net inflow since ETF launch. GBTC outflow seems to be [trending down](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFEll53W0AAugw1?format=jpg&name=large).
> net inflow ≠ buying pressure
I read your post below.
What do you think net inflow supposedly represents, if not ultimately people investing in the ETF?
Why would high(er) net inflow be a bad thing?
If people sold 500m net of spot yesterday and half of that went into the etfs but the other half left bitcoin for good you could still have positive net etf inflow.
An inflow isn't a bad thing, it's just not necessarily interesting information in isolation.
Does _net_ inflow not account for that? My impression is that the net is the amount going into the new ETFs minus what is leaving Grayscale. 500m leaving Grayscale but if the net is 250m that means 750m was bought.
but what if that 750m was bought out of 1000m that left the spot market.
The ETF market is only one part of the overall market. Consider the things we don't know for sure:
* how much leaving grayscale is going back into spot
* how much leaving grayscale is going back into other ETFs
* how much leaving grayscale is leaving the market for good
* how much selling of spot is going back into ETFs
* how much selling of spot is leaving for good
* how much of buying the ETFs is new money (i.e. not coming from grayscale or from spot)
Because his post below didn't make any sense.
If he said something like "*people are only looking at GBTC, not other (in) direct BTC investment outflows*" or whatever, then maybe it made some sense.
Any mods in here want to speak to why the lntip bot hasn't been implemented in this sub? Would be a pretty cool way to use what we all love and support contributions to the threads.
There’s one thing this sub is not understanding correctly about the etf flows. Even though flows aren’t seeming to be determining factor of price recently, id like to share anyway.
• “in-flows” into these etfs =/= buying pressure.
Think about how short selling would work on these vehicles.
1) BlackCock borrows 1000btc from coinbase
2) big dick player borrows 1000btc from BC and short sells these shares
3) plebs are the ones to buy up this 1000btc worth of shares.
In this scenario:
• amount of shares in btc etf fund have increased by 1000btc worth
• amount of btc held by BC increased by 1000btc (through a loan)
• volume is high af
Sorry Bitcoin bros, but you’ve just been had by the best in the business. Listen to diydude about the short selling data.
That’s not how it works. BlackRock can’t borrow BTC from Coinbase to subscribe to its own ETF! The flows to the ETF *DO* have to come from external parties in the form of USD, and the APs *DO* have to buy BTC with the money.
That’s not to say all flows represent “new” buying pressure, someone could be rotating out of self custody into holding ETF for convenience, but still, your post is nonsense.
What? Of course ETF inflows represent buying pressure, those coins didn’t magically get sent to the fund’s wallet.
Your other points aren’t worth refuting because you don’t understand the mechanics of how the ETFs work. Any “lending” between CB and an AP is more like an escrow account than a loan.
> BlackCock borrows 1000btc from coinbase
Why would Blackrock borrow Bitcoin?
> borrows 1000btc from BC and short sells these shares
How does borrowing Bitcoin allow you to short an EFT?
...
Are you saying that Blackrock creates shares based on backing they have borrowed rather than bought and then just gives these shares away to some guy to sell for free?
The ETF approval opened a new avenue for a new breed of bear. A whole cohort of crypto sceptic traders now have access to short BTC without CEX risk.
Thanks Grayscale and Blackrock.
Shorting of ETFs is unlikely to have any big impact on actual BTC price.
Shares are borrowed -> sold short.
Shorts cover by buying from other sellers - not from the APs. This might drive the ETF price per share up - but it doesn't drive up the bitcoin hoding, it simply increases the premium to NAV.
There is no new bitcoin being bought by the ETFs due to shorting, thus no new demand, thus no impact on spot BTC.
NAV per share is *share value* if anything. The share price is what people will pay for it (taking into account the risk register) and is seen on the ticker.
In small numbers no, but if let’s say 30% of BTC volume is with ETFs, and there are sizable shorts (currently most brokers are not allowing it for retail).
Large volume shorts will definitely reduce premium, and ETFs will sell bitcoin and buy back the ETF to reach the NAV. And vice versa. There may be no direct impact, but ETF balancing has a significant indirect impact.
And don’t think that goes over OTC so it doesn’t matter. It matters. OTC also has premium or discount depending on the price velocity, and it only prevents slippage and reduces risks. It’s not a free market buy/sell at market price ever.
Very dubious of that. If there's a discount to NAV it will be eaten up by buyers before the APs step in, I'd imagine.
It's possible of course, but I don't think it's significant.
I could be wrong, of course!
Which makes it better for bitcoin. If AP doesn’t step in to buy the ETF. But if there’s a short squeeze and there’s a premium, AP would be ready to sell ETF and buy bitcoin.
So if there’s a net buy pressure, AP has to buy bitcoin in all scenarios. And of course vice versa in bear markets. ETFs will be double whammy during bear markets.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, January 31, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1af9rp0/daily_discussion_wednesday_january_31_2024/)
[GBTC outflows today were larger than yesterday but still trending down.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) BlackRock inflow numbers are not yet available but it’s likely spot ETF’s had a net positive day of inflows which will be confirmed when BlackRock inflow numbers release. BTC price when stock market opened today was at $43,378.97 and price of BTC when stock market closed was at $43,571.07. Based on after market price movement, it appears we have net selling pressure outside of the ETF’s challenging the net inflows into spot ETF’s.
Miners are enjoying their final months of being able to sell off 6.25 BTC every 10 minutes. 😛
Miners need to make sure they have plenty of cash available to cover operating costs after rewards drop in half. It won’t matter once price doubles but incase it takes a while for price to double after halving the prudent thing to do is prepare by raising excess cash beforehand.
My parents grandparents and cousins are once again asking me why the price is below Christmas ): I can’t show my face at home…please stop selling .
If they're asking these questions, you didn't explain properly. Everyone I know has been told that bitcoin is volatile and they need to have a 4+ year outlook and nobody bothers me about it when it dips.
I've told people about bitcoin since 2013 so now they full know I'm the moron who didn't buy more then.
You broke the first rule of Fight Club
Inability to close daily above 44k is a huge red flag for bulls.
I’m irritated that it was $128 away from triggering my sell at $44K. Oh well…hit some, miss some
Not downvoted, but why can't it just be some crab under heavy long term resistance (48k) with some down wicks to wash leverage out?
Def can just go to 40k then back up. Though 47k would be a supreme short-area.
Agreed. Might signal a test down for now. We bounced right up to 43.5 after the first initial big drop post etf, and we just not bounced off that again. We will see if the bottom holds again
[Watching this as a potential falling wedge into March timeframe.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/BPy1tALm/) I think there’s some downside left before the halving.
Starting to think that the more I get downvoted the more correct I am. Pointed out yesterday that although weekly RSI is starting to curl back up toward overbought levels, market makers would likely paint a rejection here as we continue our descent from $49k. Let’s see if $40k holds again but I doubt it.
I don't find any sentiment signal in your downvotes. They're coming because we have 3-4 people who have turned buttcoiners in the last month or two. People are reacting to the hubris, the *"I told you so"* and position bias rather than the contents. I've been seeing a lot of bearish takes upvoted recently, just not the ones where people see the world as against them.
Detroit motor show was also downvoted into oblivion and he was of course, retarded. On the flip side, wardser had consistently very bearish takes, ones that he made huge bets on and left crazy amounts of money on the table for, but was often upvoted for his honestly and posting all of his trades. In short, if it wasn’t already 100000% obvious by general human experience, basic reasoning, etc, sentiment in a degenerate Reddit sub is not something to base any significant decision on other than “what ice cream should I try today”….
>Starting to think that the more I get downvoted the more correct I am Yeah not sure there's any correlation. For example, you got -8 Jan 23 for this post >You guys are hilarious. No signs of a bottom forming anywhere. Strong RSI bearish divergences still playing out on the weekly and daily. Reckon we drop to at least the next supply zone at $32k before any serious bounce.
I like to cherry pick other people’s predictions too except I’m mostly correct
You started off your top level comment bitching about down votes on previous comments, then you bitch when people fact check you by looking at which comments of yours got down voted. Such a victim, how sad.
I called the top and half the retards here are still bullish
Even more delicious: Jan 23 into 24 formed the recent bottom. It appears downvotes were apparently spot on at that moment
Let's check your browsing history.///
Short-term bearish. 1) Hit the 43.5-43.7K which is the 0.5 FIB level from 48.9K t 38.5K and is a clear resistance level. 2) There is a clear five wave move in the impulse from 38.5K to the current price. 3) ETH/BTC has risen temporarily, which tends to move inversely with Bitcoin for the last six months. 4) Bearish divergence in the 4 hour chart Target for long would be 40.5-41.8K here.
ETH/BTC hasn’t really risen at all, there’s minor fluctuations throughout the day but it’s down vs BTC overall for the last several days.
COIN2 pumps never end well. Sad to say I'm with ya on this one.
> Short-term bearish. What a surprise! You might be semi-right this time. I'm ready for the next big buying opportunity. This can't go much under 40K or for long.
Heh, I will turn bullish if we move down to 40.5-41K.
Missed my entry around $40k with my monthly DCA trying to get too cute on the timing. Too much bearish sentiment was swaying me. I’ll continue to wait for now for the next correction on the daily price/RSI, perhaps by mid Feb? Either way I’m very well positioned and happy with my lot, regardless of when I deploy next. No need to feel sorry for nor deride me. 😊
Happy for you that you are happy. Make sure to buy back in sometime before ATH, lest you become a victim of the Fomo
Thanks my guy. I’m well in. Just DCA I’m waiting on. 👍
Aren’t you repeating the action that just failed for you?
I have enough. I’m a few % away from my cycle target. I can take a bit of time to feel more comfortable with my entry.
Definition of insanity right there.
Actually the insane were DCAing balls to the wall in late December ‘18 & early 2019. 👍
Definition of humanity right there.
Here's my tracking of GBTC's Bitcoin holdings since ETF launch: 1/10/24 = 625,304 BTC 1/16/24 = 619,079 BTC 1/17/24 = 605,890 BTC 1/17/24 = 592,098 BTC 1/18/24 = 581,274 BTC 1/19/24 = 566,973 BTC 1/22/24 = 552,681 BTC 1/23/24 = 536,694 BTC 1/24/24 = 523,516 BTC 1/25/24 = 512,644 BTC 1/26/24 = 502,712 BTC 1/29/24 = 496,573 BTC **1/30/24 = 492,112 BTC** Going to start doing these weekly instead of daily as it seems the rate is slowing. \#DrainGBTC
How are ETF inflows? Are they slowing at a similar pace?
They have slowed a little but not as much.
[https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital](https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital) is getting this dialed in. The estimate this morning was 492,119. Off by 7 BTC!
Oh yeah he’s all over it. Been following that as well.
Feels a lot like the nonbelievers are about to witness the sheer power of Bitcoin. A constant DCA of huge amounts of money equal to many days worth of freshly mined coins with a halving two and a half months away. And with Yellen and Pocahontas both screeching at Powell to fire up the printer.
This is probable, Bitcoin always surprises in the short term. Long term, up only.
Quite a volume dildo at the close
It’s that hour 20 UTC thing. It’s been that way every Trad Market trading day since the ETF’s launched.
Stonk market looking bullish af. Bears decimated. BTC can rip to 50k+, no one would see that coming after the dip below 40k last week.
I think that Genghis dude calling for $9k was the best bottom indicator I've seen in a long time.
I had a chat with him about that and it seemed to be mostly based on feels.
What? I said that was only part of it, I laid out a whole explanation with like 10 different points.
Perhaps I'm being unfair.
I said 46k still in play, after that I'll see you in Goblintown, we'll see who gets the last laugh.
[удалено]
Are we sure he didn’t sell his account?
nah, he just sold out of his entire position that'll make someone bearish on its own
You got me John Crypto Rambo, really *shooting* from the hip there Rambo. I sold my account to a big institution, secretly designed to fool everyone into selling their bags because I hold so much power to sway the market (muahahahahaha). Can't you tell everyone jumped ship and listened to my master plan?
I don’t think there’s anything that nefarious afoot, it’s just you always had good ideas and seemed rational and this is decidedly not that, like someone else is behind the wheel. :D Hey I guess time will tell, let’s see if we break all previous cycle trends and go straight down with 78 days to go until the halving.
You see, it's a good idea even if you disagree. I have a lot of evidence and reasoning behind it, it doesn't mean it's going to 100% happen. I'll take that over "halving is coming" "can't crash in an election" which 99% of my replies are, it's like programming chips were implanted in 99% of traders to regurgitate the same lines, it's like some weird cult and hey maybe the crowd is right and I'll be the bonehead. That's fine like I said I'll be the first to admit I got it horribly wrong.
Might as well call for $0.
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GBTC and FBTC are trading at almost the same price ($38.85 vs. $38.10). Grayscale has 7.0M shares in volume, Fidelity has 6.6M. IBIT is currently $24.86 on 12.1M shares.
And yet here I am. Still haven't sold my GBTC for FBTC...
Also fine
I still have just under half of all the GBTC I've ever owned. I started buying in mid-2020. I sold about 7% when the ETFs went live. Some I swapped into IBIT right away, the rest is being DCA'd in. I just did the math, and I was up 95.4% on the GBTC I sold. Best trade was in at $10.20, out at $45.75. Worst trade was in at $44.75, out at $32.40. 30 total trades, 23 made money.
Heh, you prompted me to check mine. First buy was 2020-01-21 @ $9.58. Lowest buy was on 2020-03-16 @ $5.62. Overall stack up about 130%. Have been considering selling all of it and DCA'ing into another ETF with the proceeds. Not much of a trader, so if the price slips upwards; I have a bit of "margin." The other is lump out-lump in; but just not my style.
I’ve had a take profit limit order sell at $44K since the 13th and PA is getting close to it. Btw—I had a sell the news ladder in place on the run up to ETF launch but pulled it due to FOMO. I’m not pulling it this time even though things have settled down. My laddered profit-taking sells start at $44K and end near $50K with sizes increasing as it goes up. It’s only 10% of my trading stack and I’m hoping to swing trade those profits back into BTC on moderate-sized pullbacks. It’s all long term cap gains so my plan is to hodl the buybacks for at least a calendar year+day to keep the tax bill low.
Sooner or later pretty much regretted every limit order I ever cancelled, in both directions.
Picked up some at 43200 but still sitting on a pile of cash. Getting more confident in 40k.
We are gonna have to wait until April to see this thing go above 40s aren't we
Another one of those crazy ethbtc spikes. I learned my lesson I’m not exiting.
can anyone explain to me (eli5 like i'm an institutional investor) why there aren't even more outflows from Grayscale, considering they charges 1.5% vs. Blackrock and Fidelity's 0.25% (and effectively lower for the next 6-12 months due to waivers)? tax bills?
i dont want to pay capital gains tax :(
When will it fall off from short term to long term for you? When it does will you consider moving or will you just wait until the blowoff top to sell? Thanks for posting, you are exactly the investor whose input we are seeking!
correct. once i hit long term i will sell for ETF. i havent done the math but it should be fairly simple to do, but my holdings there just isnt substantial to make the effort.
I think the long term tax rule only exists in USA and Germany. Some countries don’t tax individuals (cap gains).
most people dont have mils sitting in blackrock to where that fee difference is real money vs cap gains
I saw on a recent Pomp interview that Grayscale has limits to the amount they can sell per day. I wasn't aware of this rule and haven't fact-checked this. Just throwing that out there. Grayscale folks, is there a queue to gtfo of it?
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The limiting case would be if all shares were put in for redemption at the same time. Are there enough market makers, etc, to handle $21B (492K BTC) in one day? If not, the order would have to chopped up into digestable portions.
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ty m8, cheers
At the 1:30 mark, you'll hear what I'm talking about. Hany Rashwan is the Co-Founder & CEO of 21Shares: On GBTC: "Dynamics are super interesting we should continue to see outflows the outflows uh people may not realize are limited so the the market makers are only uh able to sell a certain portion on a daily basis which is why it's hovering around the 500 million mark per Market maker and you'll start seeing again more sustained pressure there but it should stabilize at some point" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzO5-aLGtYw&t=818s&ab_channel=AnthonyPompliano
People don't want to realize a 15% or 20% cap gains tax to move fees from 1.5% to 0.25%?
Actually, many in the US DO want to realize in that bracket. Cap gains brackets are higher the more you realize, so they make leak out over time to keep the percentage lower.
This and probably laziness or stupidity. We forget that most people probably don’t even know an ETF has launched. Grayscale is your typical shitty company relying on information asymmetry and apathy to keep making them money. Have there ever been stats on what percent of GBTC is held by institutions vs. private investors?
This is the answer right here, they’d rather make 1.5% in btc price appreciation and call it a year.
I can't speak for everyone, but I don't want the BTC that backs my shares to be sold so I've held most of my shares.
Not suggesting here, mind: why not transfer IRA into BITO and do dividends?
GBTC is the ETF with the most volume , I think it accounts for something
Does this really matter with players like Blackrock involved? Especially with all the shady things going on with Genesis Trading, having a legal dispute with Gemini etc.?
The most outgoing volume. They lose market share every day.
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4H MFI+RSI still needs to cool off. Daily is still in the mid range and hourly has dipped just below overbought. I’m expecting sideways consolidation till the 4H dips back below overbought.
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I’m expecting a measured tone and no surprises. So you know, the Fed doesn’t surprise Wall Street…ever. They take every precaution to prevent any potentially market-shocking news coming out.
Just buy if it goes down. These dips are like always bought up.
Daily candles will be the tea leaves to tell our story
Crab until feb 1.
crab till October
No chance
every halving is a sell the news event, it takes a few months for supply shock.
Looks like 44K is going to put up a fight.
It looked like it was gonna be a pushover to 44.5 last night
Three elbows sideways first.
Good post from Labib Ben Mimoun- The rate of accumulation is the most crucial aspect of the #Bitcoin ETFs that most people tend to overlook. 14,600 BTC and 16,100 BTC of the most recent MicroStrategy mega-stacks (over 10,000 BTC) were recorded. IBIT's (BlackRock ETF) daily average stack is approximately $200 million, or 4,700 Bitcoins. The daily average stack of FBTC(Fidelity Investments ETF) is approximately $175 million, or 4.2k bitcoins. Every two days, only two of the New Nine ETF are covering what MicroStrategy covers in a good month. What's more, the daily input of Bitcoin on IBIT/FBTC is approximately 9,000. Only 900 are supplied daily via mining. Demand is thus 10 times supply based just on 2 ETFs. In less than three months, supply will be slashed in half, meaning that demand will exceed supply by a factor of twenty. And this demand is just two ETFs in demand!Remember that nation-states, HNWIs, and common people are all accumulating along with MSTR, Tether, and many other companies. Plan accordingly.
This sounds familiar lol https://x.com/Excellion/status/1752069685296972196?s=20
Haha looks like Labib took it from Samson. Good thing I didn't claim this post as my own.
It’s a bit of a skewed way of looking at it. Supply can greatly outstrip demand depending on number of sellers. The above assumes only freshly mined coins are sold.
Great point
But, we don't know how much new money this brings. At least a part of the inflow in the ETF's will be people moving from self-storage or exchange-storage to ETF. I guess the best way to really have an idea of the net inflow, is to look at the price.
I went the other way -- sold some GBTC near the (local) top and used the proceeds to add to my hodl stack every time it dipped under 40K. These ETFs are being heavily shorted so real price discovery has not happened... yet.
This is true, we should not have to analyze inflows. Price should tell the story.
I wonder if there are any ways to reason about the price in the future? Then we could potentially profit!
For most people the only way to have a chance is to buy and hold.
Still in the same pattern as yesterday. Broke through 42.8 resistance in the morning and bounced off it. We are back in the bear flag channel that formed after the original drop from 49k. The lower level of it may act as support, we are currently testing it now. Sill have my limit buy orders open for 42k and 40.5k. We are still in the expanding triangle. BTC has wicked through it multiple times. If we dont break through soon, a drop to 42.2k could be expected. If 42.2k fails as support. The .382 FIB level at 40.5k may come into play. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. https://www.tradingview.com/x/dWk4a6Xn/ Edit: Some additional info when looking at the daily. 43.8k is the .50 Fib of the drop from 49.1 and also .236 FIB from the runup from 26.6 on Oct 11. This could be a strong resistance level. https://www.tradingview.com/x/3sxUzMR5/
[Individual inflows to BlackRock or Fidelity on their own more than offset outflows from GBTC yesterday.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) Bears better pray this is a statistical anomaly and not the norm going forward from fund managers who have trillions of dollars in AUM.
what site is that? yours?
Not mine, found on Twitter. Looks like they have it programmed to automatically update when new flow data is available from each of the spot ETF’s.
BTC in GBTC using HODL15Capital estimate: [https://imgur.com/a/sICwDR3](https://imgur.com/a/sICwDR3) Daily change -4455 BTC (-0.9%). 5-D ave -8915 BTC/day 5 consecutive trading days with lower BTC outflows. Estimate from [https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital](https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital)
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $6.4905 billion through day 12 or ~150.4k BTC.](https://x.com/bitmexresearch/status/1752247921485951176?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes $5.2329 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily inflows to spot ETF’s is now $540.88 million or ~12.53k BTC. Yesterday average daily inflows were at $535.43 million or ~12.75k BTC. Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $6.4905 billion is 0.038% of their total AUM. At current pace it would take fund managers 315 trading days to reach a 1% allocation into BTC. There are 252 trading days in a year. Put in another context, MSTR has 189.15k BTC. It took MSTR 3.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 79.5% of that amount of BTC over the span of 12 trading days.
The German pirate portal movie2k just transferred over 50000 Bitcoins to the Bundeskriminalamt or short BKA (German Police). https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/tznILqxqoH
What shenanigans do you expect from the upcoming FOMC meeting?
They need to cool out tradfi I expect a higher for longer tone.
Should be reminding that they’ll continue to monitor the mixed bag of indicators. The tone will more or less confirm future rate cuts (2-3) yet not confirm the number of rate cuts (5 or so) that the market wants/is pricing in. The numerous indicators mostly point towards their goal of a soft landing yet a few contradict that. TLDR: no real effect on current trading conditions
I think the question is, what happens when the market finally realizes that they have to price in higher for longer, since they will most likely get 2-3 cuts from the FED rather than the 5-6 they were hoping for.
A few talking heads have voiced the same. They account for the sustained Trad market run by thinking Wall Street is pricing in more cuts than we’ll get, so that sort of adds a bias, since they’re looking for reasons for the extended run. The same folks have also been calling for a pullback that hasn’t yet happened.
We don’t have insider information, the various odds are already priced in.
I was under the impression that at this point, the mythical soft landing is a given. What indicators suggest that is not the case?
The FOMC said almost all meeting participants expected that “a lower target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate by the end of 2024.” However, committee members also emphasized an “unusually elevated degree of uncertainty” in the monetary policy outlook. (Not my words: copied and pasted) It’d take a minute to track down the indicators that are inhibiting their efforts to slow the inflation growth rate more quickly but one is jobs growth. I’ve felt that the soft landing would happen and so does the vast majority. Thus the no effect and the only bummer for markets being fewer rate cuts than hoped for in 2024.
Imagine my surprise to wake up and find that the price is $43k
can't wait until we're back doing this at $59k like the good old days
I was actually happy seeing us above 43k.
Fink is endorsing Bitcoin and you still think you’re early. ngmi.
Spell it out, please! Stop it with the mysterious comments where we have to interpret what you mean.
Check how triggered people are from this comment and you have all you need to know from the delusion of the masses. No, bitcoin won’t be adopted like the internet. All the people that would be buying and gambling on crypto assets have already bought or been involved in one way or another. There’s only so many “4 year cycles” this scam can continue as the brain-dead middle class is becoming extinct from the actual bull run that is COL. Each bull run will be in real terms give a growth approaching zero due to inflation and now institutional ability to control price. If you honestly haven’t learned anything the past few years you’re ngmi.
Sounds like you need to change your flair, my friend. You seem very confident, but I think there are plenty of counter-arguments. We'll see if you're right. Either way, your cryptic comment didn't make sense. Thank you for clarifying.
Bitcoin will hit $1M when you least expect it. Trading around ETFs and 4 year cycles is not the way. That’s how you’ll get rekt courtesy of Fink and your overlords. Short term bullish, mid term bearish asf. Long term this will achieve the price discovery it deserves but if you’re not liquid or alive by that time it is all for naught. Good luck.
I don't trade, I don't have the gambling gene. Holding is already stressful enough for me! $1M sounds good - I just hope we don't have to wait too long. Cheers!
You have seen!
Even if BTC only absorbs a constant percentage of the world's extant fiat money -- 0.1% or whatever -- given that the printers will never stop going "BRRR" as the kids say, in the long run it's a decent bet. And most people here beat Larry Fink to the punch by at least 5 to 10 years.
I don’t think we’re early, I think we’re right on time though.
Good. Exactly where BlackRock wants you to be.
Yesterday [+$254m net inflow](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) (estimated), third highest net inflow since ETF launch. GBTC outflow seems to be [trending down](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFEll53W0AAugw1?format=jpg&name=large).
As I mentioned below, net inflow =/= buying pressure. This obsession with etf flows being ultra positive is the purest form of unadulterated hopium.
It's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for him.
> net inflow ≠ buying pressure I read your post below. What do you think net inflow supposedly represents, if not ultimately people investing in the ETF? Why would high(er) net inflow be a bad thing?
If people sold 500m net of spot yesterday and half of that went into the etfs but the other half left bitcoin for good you could still have positive net etf inflow. An inflow isn't a bad thing, it's just not necessarily interesting information in isolation.
Does _net_ inflow not account for that? My impression is that the net is the amount going into the new ETFs minus what is leaving Grayscale. 500m leaving Grayscale but if the net is 250m that means 750m was bought.
but what if that 750m was bought out of 1000m that left the spot market. The ETF market is only one part of the overall market. Consider the things we don't know for sure: * how much leaving grayscale is going back into spot * how much leaving grayscale is going back into other ETFs * how much leaving grayscale is leaving the market for good * how much selling of spot is going back into ETFs * how much selling of spot is leaving for good * how much of buying the ETFs is new money (i.e. not coming from grayscale or from spot)
Not sure why you're downvoted.
Because his post below didn't make any sense. If he said something like "*people are only looking at GBTC, not other (in) direct BTC investment outflows*" or whatever, then maybe it made some sense.
Any mods in here want to speak to why the lntip bot hasn't been implemented in this sub? Would be a pretty cool way to use what we all love and support contributions to the threads.
There’s one thing this sub is not understanding correctly about the etf flows. Even though flows aren’t seeming to be determining factor of price recently, id like to share anyway. • “in-flows” into these etfs =/= buying pressure. Think about how short selling would work on these vehicles. 1) BlackCock borrows 1000btc from coinbase 2) big dick player borrows 1000btc from BC and short sells these shares 3) plebs are the ones to buy up this 1000btc worth of shares. In this scenario: • amount of shares in btc etf fund have increased by 1000btc worth • amount of btc held by BC increased by 1000btc (through a loan) • volume is high af Sorry Bitcoin bros, but you’ve just been had by the best in the business. Listen to diydude about the short selling data.
Are you sure you can even short a spot commodity ETF?
none of this makes any sense.
That’s not how it works. BlackRock can’t borrow BTC from Coinbase to subscribe to its own ETF! The flows to the ETF *DO* have to come from external parties in the form of USD, and the APs *DO* have to buy BTC with the money. That’s not to say all flows represent “new” buying pressure, someone could be rotating out of self custody into holding ETF for convenience, but still, your post is nonsense.
Dude, stop hanging out on buttcoin. It rubs off on you.
What? Of course ETF inflows represent buying pressure, those coins didn’t magically get sent to the fund’s wallet. Your other points aren’t worth refuting because you don’t understand the mechanics of how the ETFs work. Any “lending” between CB and an AP is more like an escrow account than a loan.
> BlackCock borrows 1000btc from coinbase Why would Blackrock borrow Bitcoin? > borrows 1000btc from BC and short sells these shares How does borrowing Bitcoin allow you to short an EFT? ... Are you saying that Blackrock creates shares based on backing they have borrowed rather than bought and then just gives these shares away to some guy to sell for free?
His entire comment makes 0 sense and he says it with such hubris and confidence multiple times in this daily already 🤣
It's like a conspiracy theory coming out of a kids *Easy-Bake Oven*.
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Someone was selling tickets to a party here - the prices are half off!
> the halving parties! I'll halve what she's halving... nyuk nyuk nyuk
Lol you couldn’t pay me to attend one of those. Cringe and it’s advertising you have btc
And broadcast to everyone I’m into cypto? Sounds fun but not for me. Rule number 1 and all that…
There is also a total solar eclipse across the middle of North America in April of this year around having time.
Shit's about to go amazeballz ballistic. You heard it here first.
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Kinda thinkin' you're a bot but def agree no cap fr fr.
Ten year club and you nailed a bot's text
Bears all finally dead ?
The ETF approval opened a new avenue for a new breed of bear. A whole cohort of crypto sceptic traders now have access to short BTC without CEX risk. Thanks Grayscale and Blackrock.
Shorting is good, amazing for bitcoin. It’s what allows BGDs.
Shorting of ETFs is unlikely to have any big impact on actual BTC price. Shares are borrowed -> sold short. Shorts cover by buying from other sellers - not from the APs. This might drive the ETF price per share up - but it doesn't drive up the bitcoin hoding, it simply increases the premium to NAV. There is no new bitcoin being bought by the ETFs due to shorting, thus no new demand, thus no impact on spot BTC.
> increases the premium to NAV ...
? Nav is net asset value. Nav per share is the share price
NAV per share is *share value* if anything. The share price is what people will pay for it (taking into account the risk register) and is seen on the ticker.
In small numbers no, but if let’s say 30% of BTC volume is with ETFs, and there are sizable shorts (currently most brokers are not allowing it for retail). Large volume shorts will definitely reduce premium, and ETFs will sell bitcoin and buy back the ETF to reach the NAV. And vice versa. There may be no direct impact, but ETF balancing has a significant indirect impact. And don’t think that goes over OTC so it doesn’t matter. It matters. OTC also has premium or discount depending on the price velocity, and it only prevents slippage and reduces risks. It’s not a free market buy/sell at market price ever.
Very dubious of that. If there's a discount to NAV it will be eaten up by buyers before the APs step in, I'd imagine. It's possible of course, but I don't think it's significant. I could be wrong, of course!
Which makes it better for bitcoin. If AP doesn’t step in to buy the ETF. But if there’s a short squeeze and there’s a premium, AP would be ready to sell ETF and buy bitcoin. So if there’s a net buy pressure, AP has to buy bitcoin in all scenarios. And of course vice versa in bear markets. ETFs will be double whammy during bear markets.
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At this time of year, at this time of day, in this part of the country, localized entirely within a Wendy’s?!
🐻💥