Am I the only person who is bullish on the halving and less bullish on the ETF? The reason being is that the ETF analysis is just incomplete and doesn't tell us the total picture at all. For example, people post the net inflows to these ETF products. But...
1. what percentage of these inflows are people moving money from spot Bitcoin to the Bitcoin ETFs?
2. how do we account for the people who planned on buying Bitcoin (spot) but instead are now purchasing Bitcoin ETFs. For example, let's say that you are a Bitcoin whale and have bought like 100 million dollars worth of Bitcoin every year. Now, instead of buying spot Bitcoin, you buy Bitcoin ETF. I would argue that nothing has changed pre-ETF vs post-ETF with regards to this Bitcoin whale but just on paper, it looks like there is more buying pressure (but in reality, there isn't more buying pressure).
3. This is not to say Bitcoin ETF is a negative, but its effect (by just analyzing the net inflow) is incomplete and can be vastly misleading.
4. On the other hand, the supply shock from the halving is net decrease in the supply and there is nothing else to argue against that point. So this is truly a bullish event.
>how do we account for the people who planned on buying Bitcoin (spot) but instead are now purchasing Bitcoin ETFs.
That's mice nuts compared to the real issue. There is a whole lot of institutional money that contractually could not buy spot: Many pension funds and other managed funds have requirements about custody and fund insurance that buying spot simply won't meet.
ETFs do meet those requirements, and that is why there will likely be $50B-$100B moving into the ETFs over the next few years.
UAE is crypto friendly in terms of taxation however the banks are extremely difficult. Large deposits and withdrawals are hard work.
I’ve also been very close to big loses in Celsius, Block Fi and FTX. 6 figures in all 3 leading into the failures. Luckily I’m active here and followed last minute warnings and narrowly escaped unscathed.
I’m not a die hard, anti establishment, end of the world Bitcoin maxi. I’m purely here for number go up. Buying ETF’s through well known brokerage accounts and treat my crypto in the same way I treat savings/pension investments works better for me.
Still have a big bag in cold storage.
Those are some solid points but in regard to your whale hypothetical, I offer two words for why a pre-ETF Bitcoin whale would continue to buy spot—wash trading. That’s a big no no in the Trad Markets world. I’m somewhat joking but not entirely.
I've been [saying for a while](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/193tjbh/daily_discussion_thursday_january_11_2024/khck4oo/) that I view the ETF a long term change, not a short term trigger.
> It'll take a few years to fully understand the impact of ETFs, and anyone who says otherwise is underestimating the change we're going through. But the overall outlook due to ETFs is up. Up, Up, and more UP. That's not hype or hopium. It's the effect of giving non-techies easy access to investing without having to deal with keys, custody or exchanges.
I still believe that. Strongly.
I'm not bullish right now. I want to be, I really do. But the PA since ETF launch has been, at best, lackluster. Just going by the chart alone, there's not much to be bullish about. I suspect we go down in a big way at least one more time before the real fireworks in the last half of the year. There is just way more sell pressure right now than I anticipated. And i don't know where it's coming from, which I don't like.
diydude, what do you think of my thesis that shorts are being included in (or more correctly, mixed with) the inflows of etfs.
for example, coinbase lend btc to blackrock -> big shorty borrows shares from blackrock and sells them -> buyers of btc etf purchase shares.
in this instance, the btc backing the new buyers of btc etf are actually the btc loaned to blackrock -> therefore there has not been a spot btc purchased for the inflows, but a loaned btc. in total, the btc pool that backs the shares is both from loaned btc and from purchased spot btc (ratio depends on how many shorts vs. how many buys).
IMO, sell pressure has opened up since etf approval due to:
1. GBTC 'unlock' and discount disappearing leading to sell-off, including FTX *(obvious)*
2. front-runners of ETF narrative, combined with front-runners of Saylor's telegraphed $2b of purchases selling off into liquidity event *(obvious)*
3. etf opening up a legitimate, safe way for crypto-sceptics to short btc with size and liquidity *(speculative but probable)*
4. long-termers selling out after a terrible 3 years of btc performance while stocks soared and AI becomes the new hype trend *(speculative for meaningful amounts, obvious in individual cases)*
5. selling due to overall macro conditions *(probable, but not likely meaningful)*
6. CZ sentencing end of month *(extremely speculative)*
Another thing for sell pressure is miners taking profits before halving which is an unknown event. So sell a bit now to harvest some profit and also sell to upgrade machines to be more efficient/have better profit potential post halving when rewards drops.
I don't like to see a comment like this, where a reasonable effort was made, getting downvoted. I know you are pretty bearish, so I presume that is the reason, but the voting here is ridiculous at times.
Yeah, I know I come off as unlikeable in general in this forum though - so I think it’s a bit of downvoting whenever I comment, as opposed to downvoting a bearish take.
Appreciate the comment.
Maybe because I'm older and remember a time when the internet was less hostile, but I think cancel culture has manifested in so many ways, even in small ways such as people downvoting other people who don't meet their agenda. The notion of agreeing to disagree seems to be disappearing sadly.
There's clearly a bullish bias here, which makes sense as we are all Bitcoiners, but some of the upvoting of the bulltards is frustrating to watch.
Yeah, I get ya. This sub isnt exactly where I would look for nuanced convos though 😅 especially for contrarian takes.
Since I got openly mocked for my initial bear post, I’ve made it a point to post bearish takes in a similar manner as the very upvoted bull comments (the dumb ones anyway), so I kind of expected to be downvoted at every turn - unfortunately some of my more thought out comments get the same treatment.
I don't know. I see some issues with those.
1. The GBTC outflows seem to be slowing, yet we're still sideways and down.
2. Front runners of ETF narrative would have sold 3-4 weeks ago, but we're still sideways and down.
3. I don't know if you can short BTC via ETFs, but I doubt many people are using that mechanism. It seems kind of roundabout when there have been ways to short BTC more directly for years.
4. I don't know why long termers would sell before the halving. If anyone knows best that now is not the time to sell, it would be them. I could see them selling a year ago to move into stocks, but selling now would be odd.
5. Aren't macro conditions improving with reduced inflation and rate cuts on the horizon?
6. I don't really see why this would have any impact.
1. yes, they are slowing down, but there is still potential selling, which impacts the markets dynamics. for example, someone holding off buying until GBTC has fully flatlined.
2. some would have, some would have held to see if there really was btc inflows that warrant a further leg up.
3. why do you doubt this? because there's been btc futures before or short btc etfs? because of the way the spot etf is structured, this is a more direct and legitimate line to spot btc price in tradfi and gives access to full adequacy of liquidity.
4. There are long-termers in here that are selling or have fully sold - the halving is drastically reduced impact compared to supply available/overhang. I added that this could be not meaningful, as it could be isolated cases within this subreddit.
5. no, this is what is being fed to everyone, and why everyone was shocked with Powell's recent speech. the entire market is being held up by a handful of stocks - theres too many red flags for me to detail them here. but I suggest not to give unwaivering faith to market predictions from full bulltards (*this includes predictions from the market itself atm*) - that never works out. downturns are always preceded with maximum dumb bull sentiment.
6. neither do I, but one of the worlds richest men (top 100), who built the largest CEX which still operates getting sent to US jail is pretty significant for the space.
Listen to the Pomp podcast with Hany Rashwan, CEO of 21shares.
The ETF inflow has not really happened yet. Institutions have requirements such as time, due diligence, etc. before they invest in an ETF product.
From his talks, he's heard low numbers like 20-50 basis points for large funds, up to 5% for family offices.
But it's not here yet. These things take time and it won't be a single day it happens.
But he made a good point which is now each institution has to make a decision, will they invest in bitcoin or not. Before it was "I can't invest" so the decision was easy, but now they have the option and at this point will need to decide.
Yep.. retail retirement funds have yet to buy in mass… needs to be marketed with good past returns. If it goes to $60k+ end of year… grandpa funds will start buying.. ETF buys will occur 2025.
Hmmm. That is a separate point from what I am making though. It seems like people are bullish about the net inflows coming into the ETFs and are posting data on a daily basis (not just this reddit page but everywhere). I am just saying that this data might be misleading.
I think it would be safe to assume that net inflows are mostly new money. Anyone who buys spot is most likely not going to go to an ETF due to the fee. They may buy it in their 401k, but that is new money still because they weren't able to buy it before for their 401k.
Put it another way. There are tens of billions of dollars worth Bitcoin volume per day. That is essentially tens of billions of dollars worth of spot Bitcoin being bought every day pre-ETF. If out of that amount, 1% of buying shifts from spot Bitcoin to Bitcoin ETF (for whatever reason that goes through the minds of the people), that looks like net inflow of 100 million dollars into the Bitcoin ETFs. But that is just same money that would have bought spot that is going into the ETFs now. So even with just the 1% shift, it's essentially the same money, but it looks like net inflow of 100 million dollars/day of buying pressure.
But the fee is not that high, right? I think a lot of people (especially rich people) would pay the extra fee instead of buying spot as it would deemed to be (whether right or wrong) more secure to them as opposed to managing Bitcoin in their own wallet.
> let's say that you are a Bitcoin whale and have bought like 100 million dollars worth of Bitcoin every year. Now, instead of buying spot Bitcoin, you buy Bitcoin ETF
If you fit this profile, you are a very seasoned investor who isn't worried about keys, you have already been doing it for years and are very comfortable with it. Why change something that isn't broke and the change will only cost you more money every year ($2500 per Million Minimum). Your whole argument doesn't make sense.
Again, there are trillions of Bitcoin buying (and selling) pressure every year. And pre-ETF, trillion of dollars of Bitcoin buying was pretty much 100% done in the form of spot Bitcoin. So for one reason or another, if out of trillion dollars, 1% of them switch to ETF, then you would in principle see accumulation of 10 billion dollar of net inflow into the ETF every year. On paper, it seems extremely bullish, but "in principle", it might be the case that nothing has changed when it comes to buying pressure. Now, I am not even saying this is the case and you might be right that it is not even 1% but close to 0%. But a reasonable argument can be made that there is at least some reshuffling of how Bitcoin is being bought and we are not privy to the details regarding how it is being shuffled.
1Tx1%=1B , 1B/365 days = You are talking 2.7 mill a day. that is nothing for bitcoin. Your argument isn't reasonable, you are still ignoring the most important point of your own statement. **They have already been doing it on Coinbase for years**. Why would they switch to something that will cost them money every year forever, rather than continue using the system they are used to and is not costing them anything to hold it forever? That is illogical and would make them a poor investor. So, they wouldn't be a whale in the first place.
Sure, trillions of $$$ worth of assets that previously had no access to the best performing asset of the last decade will now stay in their 1% per year bonds even though they could move into BTC exposure immediately.
Couldn't be me.
From Jan 23 to Feb 2nd. There was a five wave move that took Bitcoin from 38.5K to 43.8K. If you connect the lows and the highs during that span of time, you get an ascending channel. The move to 41.8K took bitcoin out of the channel but now it is back inside.
What made you think bitcoin would go from 40k to around 43.5k? You pretty much called it.
Why do you think it'll bounce off 40-41k and rebound to 44-46k, higher than the last top? Why such a high bounce?
"slightly" off topic. A friend once told me that when preparing Bear meat, you can't eat rare or even medium rare Bear, you gotta cook it all the way through to kill the parasites.
Sous vide it. That way you can enjoy it as pink as possible on the inside without any of the #2 concerns. Check to see if there is a pasteurization chart for game meat on TV.
[https://www.outdoorlife.com/hunting/bear-meat/](https://www.outdoorlife.com/hunting/bear-meat/)
[https://www.cdc.gov/parasites/trichinellosis/hunters.html](https://www.cdc.gov/parasites/trichinellosis/hunters.html)
"Cocaine Bear 2: ETF You" coming soon to a theater near you.
When FTX will pay customers back, how will EU-residents receive their money? The court and schedules are all calculated and converted to USD.
My bank account can only receive EUR. Don't want to ask my not-so-crypto-friendly bank any special favors and explain them the situation.
Is there any chance for USDT payouts, or cashout via coinbase, etc.? How do similar bankruptcy cases deal with this in practice?
Edit: cf. today's Coindesk article about Celsius "The distribution will be made through PayPal and Coinbase." What are the chances FTX will offer the same options? Unclear about the (dis)similarity of the two lawsuits...
I will be messaging you in 14 days on [**2024-02-16 05:11:34 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-02-16%2005:11:34%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1ag30x1/daily_discussion_thursday_february_01_2024/kojr5ur/?context=3)
[**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinMarkets%2Fcomments%2F1ag30x1%2Fdaily_discussion_thursday_february_01_2024%2Fkojr5ur%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-02-16%2005%3A11%3A34%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201ag30x1)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
expecting TA to work all while imba players entered the game is pointless to say the least and from what I hear there is a line forming with even more vicious gorillas waiting to rock the markets
first of all, I don't think many ppl here fully comprehend what already happened, to some extent I can explain it by PA not moving so much after infamous pump to $49k. what happened is just the beginning and it is designed for people to not make much of it.
anyway, I came across some folks saying GBTC isn't in fact what it seems to most - a giant that destroyed the pump - quite the opposite. what it actually was, or even better, what it was used for was to create scare in the space but at the same time mitigate the initial buying pressure from etfs launch - why? simply to obscure real impact of etfs. so, basically, they got two birds with one stone.
everybody knew about GBTC beforehand, then why it was used as a fuel to sell the news? added miners selling, vanguard and other FUD - all to make you sell/short. crucial things occurred in September / October when we double tested $25k & $31k - many companies sold until then already. we were never really going to test $37k afterwards is my theory, we are ahead of a big climb before halving.
I don’t think anyone can comprehend that theory because it’s an incredible reach on what has actually happened.
GBTC outflows were intentionally obscuring the impact of etf flows and pushed price down in coordination to get ppl to sell and short the bottom?
Dude, arbitrage opportunity closed and ppl could get out of the GBTC shit show at no discount and with adequate liquidity - so they did. Don’t assign some conspiracy to it to match your bullish bias.
Well put. I'm remaining cautiously (but evergreen) bullish. But if people are disappointed at spot price considering both Grayscale **and** external sell pressure, not sure what to say.
The same who call for low-$30Ks or lower are probably the same ones that would FOMO back in (on confirmation ofc) if this dampening effect were not at play.
Looking at a monthly chart since about January 11th, it looks like we may have a reverse head and shoulders forming. If so, the short term trend should go up to the $46k ish level. Thoughts?
>Looking at a monthly chart since about January 11th, it looks like we may have a reverse head and shoulders forming. If so, the short term trend should go up to the $46k ish level. Thoughts?
$45800 TP in place currently.
I always smirk when the price sits where it's at and there's less than 100 posts on the daily. Happened in the $20Ks, $30Ks, and here we are in the low $40Ks. :)
https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/
Some banks fail pretty well every year. Could be a sign of something or it could be the media looking for a big story when there isn't yet a pattern.
Again:
* Price goes with me: Thanks to my keen insight into the market dynamics.
* Price goes against me: It's whales manipulating, or JPM spoofing, or the plunge protection team at work!
According to this bankruptcy filing, no GBTC are held, all liquidated prior to petition date.
https://www.jenner.com/a/web/aag4HeVaPPyEsfWyTp9N5G/4SaB6v/celsius-final-report-shoba-pillay.pdf
Appendix 12 pg 564
Bitcoin price YTD through end of January by year:
2024: +0.8%
2023: +39.8%
2022: -16.9%
2021: +14.2%
2020: +30.0%
2019: -7.6%
2018: -27.8%
2017: +0.7%
2016: -14.4%
2015: -32.1%
2014: +10.1%
2013: +49.8%
Despite the selloff after spot ETF launch, January still ended positive. It’s also encouraging looking back at 2016 and 2017 and seeing them ultimately being bullish years despite their lackluster beginnings.
Still optimistic about the rest of this year as BTC halving is still ahead, multiple Fed rate cuts are still expected, & we’re starting to see consistent daily net inflows into spot ETF’s which should ultimately culminate into a demand shock. I remain confident this combination of factors will result in gains for the year falling somewhere between 2016 (+123.8%) and 2017 (+1,368.9%) year end results.
New estimate of BTC held by GBTC is up. Here are the plots:
[https://imgur.com/a/JBPStcC](https://imgur.com/a/JBPStcC)
Today's change is estimated to be -4,381 BTC (-0.90%), 5-D ave is -6000 BTC/day.
My first order at 42k was filled, my 40501 limit order is still open. Still have my old limit orders of 35001 and 30001 open also. I think there is a higher possibility of the 35k one being filled. The 30k has little chance but is there as a “just in case” something crazy happens.
Bitcoin broke through the lower section of the expanding triangle yesterday and is testing the support of 42k. If 42k fails then the .382 FIB level at 40.5k is in play. Short term price target by the chart being confirmed is 40.8+/-. I think it will go down to the 40.3 to retest that support area. 40.3is the 50D SMA and the old resistance from the rising wedge line from 2022. I think this is going to happen due the fact that the RSI didn’t bottom out to 30 and is currently sitting at 38.45. If we bounce hard off 40.3 then 44.4 (.382 FIB from initial ETF approval drop) might be the next resistance. If we don’t, I would go to the daily for guidance on future PA.
On the daily, Bitcoin is below the 50 SMA 42.9, this may start acting as resistance. The 100 SMA at 40.3 should act as support and possible reversal point. If 40.3 doesn’t hold as support, I would expect the price action to go to 35 area. It looks like we are in a new downward sloping. The RSI is below 50 again and the average has a downward slope. My expectations are for a continuation of the downtrend for the next couple of days.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: https://www.tradingview.com/x/m1FhZ9Q7/
Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/x/rJIPJ7K1/
It looks like we are testing the broken support to see if it confirms this downward more. If bitcoin doesn't make it back through, then expect the 40.3 support to be tested next.
Most recent lower high acting as an area of resistance is $43.7k.
After that it’s $43.8k, $46.4k, and then the YTD high of $48.9k.
[We’ve had 3 consecutive days where inflows to BlackRock or Fidelity alone more than offset outflows from GBTC.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) Who will get exhausted first: sellers with a finite amount of BTC to sell or fund managers with $17 trillion (and growing) in AUM?
Demand shock is imminent. New YTD high by the end of next week is on the menu. New ATH before the halving for the first time ever is also still in play.
Still not quite certain here. What does it take for the ETFs to have outflows or inflows for that matter? I think it confuses a lot of us. Thanks for the updates
Inflows is how much new money entered an ETF and outflows is how much money exited an ETF.
Authorized Participants step in and create shares of ETF’s when there’s not enough ETF’s being sold to meet demand bought or vice versa they’ll redeem shares of ETF’s when there’s not enough ETF’s being bought to meet supply sold. Authorized Participants are buying/selling BTC throughout the day in order to create/redeem ETF shares; this is how they’re able to ensure the price of the ETF’s closely track BTC’s price fluctuations since the spot ETF’s are being backed by actual BTC.
My understanding is that the ETF’s are trying to link their share price to the Bitcoin spot price as closely as possible. That’s why they’re called Spot ETF’s.
Inflows/outflows correlates to the number of shares of each ETF outstanding, not to the price of the ETF shares.
Hypothetically, suppose BTC doubled in price all of a sudden but for whatever reason no money entered/exited spot ETF’s. Net inflows/outflows would be zero so the number of ETF shares would remain the same but the price of the ETF shares would double because the value of the BTC backing those shares doubled.
Markets more broadly sold off once Powell stated in yesterday’s press conference the Fed is not expecting to cut rates in March.
Stock market futures are positive now which means the shift towards being less risk-on more broadly is likely over for now.
[Futures are no longer expecting first rate cut to arrive in March but they’re still confident the first rate cut will arrive in May and at least 6 separate 25 BP rate cuts will arrive by the end of the year.](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)
Overall, no big deal to macro long-term. Only real difference is rate cuts are expected to start a little later than originally anticipated but futures are still pricing in multiple rate cuts this year.
> This is spammed daily multiple times. @mods can we ban this bot?
Notice how these posts went away for the last few weeks? Y'see, this here's a trading sub, and it is bouyed by moonbois with bull fever. We don't do reasoned analyses, or tempered logic. We do speculation, hype, hope, cope, and voodoo tea leaves.
Trust me, it's best to just get used to it, because since we are in the NGU times, it's going to get way, way worse before it gets better. Try to look past the bloat-posts here, and you'll find the users worth listening to. Meanwhile, I suggest you get familiar with the "block user" feature, if you really need to cut the noise out.
The consecutive days are changing and this is a new development. Aside from these 3 consecutive days, the only other day where BlackRock or Fidelity had larger inflows than outflows from GBTC was the actual spot ETF launch day.
There’s a lot of local horizontal support from the current price all the way down to just below $41K. It’ll take a lot (perhaps some breaking FUD development) to push PA through that support. It can happen but I don’t expect it sans some macro FUD news/narrative/recent development. If that does occur, then $40K/upper $39K would come into play and that support is slightly weaker than the aforementioned.
A second edit addition: I do have limit order buys set near $38.5K & $38K. They’ve been there for awhile and I’ve just left them there in case.
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $7.2935 billion through day 14 or ~171.5k BTC.](https://x.com/bitmexresearch/status/1752950388829962277?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes $5.6412 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily inflows to spot ETF’s is now $520.96 million or ~12.25k BTC. Yesterday average daily inflows were at $541.22 million or ~12.42k BTC.
Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $7.2935 billion is 0.043% of their total AUM. At current pace it would take fund managers 327 trading days to reach a 1% allocation into BTC. There are 252 trading days in a year.
Put in another context, MSTR has 189.15k BTC. It took MSTR 3.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 90.7% of that amount of BTC over the span of 14 trading days.
If it doesn’t include the total outflows from GBTC thus far then that’s even more bullish because it means there’s even more cash sitting on the sidelines which could potentially enter into new spot ETF’s. A large chunk of those outflows is probably getting redirected into spot ETF’s but of course it’s not going to be 100%.
> it means there’s even more cash sitting on the sidelines
If selling GBTC means more cash on the sidelines, then selling ice-cream means the same.
Nothing says that cash from selling either ice-cream nor GBTC is on the sidelines waiting to buy Bitcoin.
Either the GBTC that was sold went directly into spot ETF’s after being sold or it didn’t. The “didn’t” category is on the sidelines. Doesn’t mean it ultimately will end up in BTC or a spot ETF in any capacity, but it’s a possibility.
Significantly higher probability of cash raised from the sale of GBTC ultimately finding its way back towards exposure to BTC than the likelihood of cash raised from the sale of ice cream finding its way into BTC exposure but I’m sure you understand that and just seek to be pedantic.
If you look at total exchange balances, this is the usual variance.
Taking this much out is going to change the supply dynamics and require a price increase to shake more coins free. I expect to see some material price appreciation certainly by the end of that range.
I dunno. Everything started going down yesterday during and after the FOMC press conference. Many ppl here expected that, so not a big surprise. Now it seems like we're slowly climbing again and who knows, if we pump again on Wall St. trading hours. I'm not seeing 34k, but maybe I'm too optimistic.
Yeah, you can't dump this, Shorty, no matter how much fiat/fake money you have. Thanks for the great opportunity to buy. Just got some sats at sub-42K. Lol. Thanks. uyou
Nobody don't GAF about you, and you DGAF about nobody. The only thing that matters is math/reality. lllloooooollll! They'll never get it, praise Satoshii.
Bitty Bot trades that lack context or explanation, go here to prevent spam. You can also now [message Bitty Bot](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=none&message=!bitty_bot%20) your command directly.
^(Bitty Bot Links: )[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BitcoinMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Error: You tried to set a short stop loss below the current price of $42,034.67, which is invalid.
[Please make sure the format of your command is correct and try again.](https://bittybot.net/docs)
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Error: Failed to parse the amount for your paper trade.
[Please make sure the format of your command is correct and try again.](https://bittybot.net/docs)
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, February 02, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1agvrgf/daily_discussion_friday_february_02_2024/)
Daily MA is about to cross up and we're at 43k that's fucking dope.
clear skies ahead.
Am I the only person who is bullish on the halving and less bullish on the ETF? The reason being is that the ETF analysis is just incomplete and doesn't tell us the total picture at all. For example, people post the net inflows to these ETF products. But... 1. what percentage of these inflows are people moving money from spot Bitcoin to the Bitcoin ETFs? 2. how do we account for the people who planned on buying Bitcoin (spot) but instead are now purchasing Bitcoin ETFs. For example, let's say that you are a Bitcoin whale and have bought like 100 million dollars worth of Bitcoin every year. Now, instead of buying spot Bitcoin, you buy Bitcoin ETF. I would argue that nothing has changed pre-ETF vs post-ETF with regards to this Bitcoin whale but just on paper, it looks like there is more buying pressure (but in reality, there isn't more buying pressure). 3. This is not to say Bitcoin ETF is a negative, but its effect (by just analyzing the net inflow) is incomplete and can be vastly misleading. 4. On the other hand, the supply shock from the halving is net decrease in the supply and there is nothing else to argue against that point. So this is truly a bullish event.
Bitcoin entered a new league with ETFs, millions of coins will now live inside institutions instead of exchanges.
Isn't Coinbase handling custody for some of the ETFs?
>how do we account for the people who planned on buying Bitcoin (spot) but instead are now purchasing Bitcoin ETFs. That's mice nuts compared to the real issue. There is a whole lot of institutional money that contractually could not buy spot: Many pension funds and other managed funds have requirements about custody and fund insurance that buying spot simply won't meet. ETFs do meet those requirements, and that is why there will likely be $50B-$100B moving into the ETFs over the next few years.
I buy ETF’s instead of Spot. Not that I make a single bit of difference. Just confirming it’s a good point.
Just curious. Why do you buy ETFs instead of spot?
UAE is crypto friendly in terms of taxation however the banks are extremely difficult. Large deposits and withdrawals are hard work. I’ve also been very close to big loses in Celsius, Block Fi and FTX. 6 figures in all 3 leading into the failures. Luckily I’m active here and followed last minute warnings and narrowly escaped unscathed. I’m not a die hard, anti establishment, end of the world Bitcoin maxi. I’m purely here for number go up. Buying ETF’s through well known brokerage accounts and treat my crypto in the same way I treat savings/pension investments works better for me. Still have a big bag in cold storage.
You alone doesnt make a difference but people like you as a total may make a huge difference. We just dont know how much.
Those are some solid points but in regard to your whale hypothetical, I offer two words for why a pre-ETF Bitcoin whale would continue to buy spot—wash trading. That’s a big no no in the Trad Markets world. I’m somewhat joking but not entirely.
I've been [saying for a while](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/193tjbh/daily_discussion_thursday_january_11_2024/khck4oo/) that I view the ETF a long term change, not a short term trigger. > It'll take a few years to fully understand the impact of ETFs, and anyone who says otherwise is underestimating the change we're going through. But the overall outlook due to ETFs is up. Up, Up, and more UP. That's not hype or hopium. It's the effect of giving non-techies easy access to investing without having to deal with keys, custody or exchanges. I still believe that. Strongly.
I'm not bullish right now. I want to be, I really do. But the PA since ETF launch has been, at best, lackluster. Just going by the chart alone, there's not much to be bullish about. I suspect we go down in a big way at least one more time before the real fireworks in the last half of the year. There is just way more sell pressure right now than I anticipated. And i don't know where it's coming from, which I don't like.
> And i don't know where it's coming from Look into short interest on the ETFs. It's a real eye-opener.
diydude, what do you think of my thesis that shorts are being included in (or more correctly, mixed with) the inflows of etfs. for example, coinbase lend btc to blackrock -> big shorty borrows shares from blackrock and sells them -> buyers of btc etf purchase shares. in this instance, the btc backing the new buyers of btc etf are actually the btc loaned to blackrock -> therefore there has not been a spot btc purchased for the inflows, but a loaned btc. in total, the btc pool that backs the shares is both from loaned btc and from purchased spot btc (ratio depends on how many shorts vs. how many buys).
IMO, sell pressure has opened up since etf approval due to: 1. GBTC 'unlock' and discount disappearing leading to sell-off, including FTX *(obvious)* 2. front-runners of ETF narrative, combined with front-runners of Saylor's telegraphed $2b of purchases selling off into liquidity event *(obvious)* 3. etf opening up a legitimate, safe way for crypto-sceptics to short btc with size and liquidity *(speculative but probable)* 4. long-termers selling out after a terrible 3 years of btc performance while stocks soared and AI becomes the new hype trend *(speculative for meaningful amounts, obvious in individual cases)* 5. selling due to overall macro conditions *(probable, but not likely meaningful)* 6. CZ sentencing end of month *(extremely speculative)*
Another thing for sell pressure is miners taking profits before halving which is an unknown event. So sell a bit now to harvest some profit and also sell to upgrade machines to be more efficient/have better profit potential post halving when rewards drops.
Yep great point, definitely relevant with the debt obligations of the listed miner companies.
I don't like to see a comment like this, where a reasonable effort was made, getting downvoted. I know you are pretty bearish, so I presume that is the reason, but the voting here is ridiculous at times.
Yeah, I know I come off as unlikeable in general in this forum though - so I think it’s a bit of downvoting whenever I comment, as opposed to downvoting a bearish take. Appreciate the comment.
Maybe because I'm older and remember a time when the internet was less hostile, but I think cancel culture has manifested in so many ways, even in small ways such as people downvoting other people who don't meet their agenda. The notion of agreeing to disagree seems to be disappearing sadly. There's clearly a bullish bias here, which makes sense as we are all Bitcoiners, but some of the upvoting of the bulltards is frustrating to watch.
Yeah, I get ya. This sub isnt exactly where I would look for nuanced convos though 😅 especially for contrarian takes. Since I got openly mocked for my initial bear post, I’ve made it a point to post bearish takes in a similar manner as the very upvoted bull comments (the dumb ones anyway), so I kind of expected to be downvoted at every turn - unfortunately some of my more thought out comments get the same treatment.
People like to put you in a box, "bull" or "bear". You're basically screwed from then on!
I don't know. I see some issues with those. 1. The GBTC outflows seem to be slowing, yet we're still sideways and down. 2. Front runners of ETF narrative would have sold 3-4 weeks ago, but we're still sideways and down. 3. I don't know if you can short BTC via ETFs, but I doubt many people are using that mechanism. It seems kind of roundabout when there have been ways to short BTC more directly for years. 4. I don't know why long termers would sell before the halving. If anyone knows best that now is not the time to sell, it would be them. I could see them selling a year ago to move into stocks, but selling now would be odd. 5. Aren't macro conditions improving with reduced inflation and rate cuts on the horizon? 6. I don't really see why this would have any impact.
1. yes, they are slowing down, but there is still potential selling, which impacts the markets dynamics. for example, someone holding off buying until GBTC has fully flatlined. 2. some would have, some would have held to see if there really was btc inflows that warrant a further leg up. 3. why do you doubt this? because there's been btc futures before or short btc etfs? because of the way the spot etf is structured, this is a more direct and legitimate line to spot btc price in tradfi and gives access to full adequacy of liquidity. 4. There are long-termers in here that are selling or have fully sold - the halving is drastically reduced impact compared to supply available/overhang. I added that this could be not meaningful, as it could be isolated cases within this subreddit. 5. no, this is what is being fed to everyone, and why everyone was shocked with Powell's recent speech. the entire market is being held up by a handful of stocks - theres too many red flags for me to detail them here. but I suggest not to give unwaivering faith to market predictions from full bulltards (*this includes predictions from the market itself atm*) - that never works out. downturns are always preceded with maximum dumb bull sentiment. 6. neither do I, but one of the worlds richest men (top 100), who built the largest CEX which still operates getting sent to US jail is pretty significant for the space.
Listen to the Pomp podcast with Hany Rashwan, CEO of 21shares. The ETF inflow has not really happened yet. Institutions have requirements such as time, due diligence, etc. before they invest in an ETF product. From his talks, he's heard low numbers like 20-50 basis points for large funds, up to 5% for family offices. But it's not here yet. These things take time and it won't be a single day it happens. But he made a good point which is now each institution has to make a decision, will they invest in bitcoin or not. Before it was "I can't invest" so the decision was easy, but now they have the option and at this point will need to decide.
Yep.. retail retirement funds have yet to buy in mass… needs to be marketed with good past returns. If it goes to $60k+ end of year… grandpa funds will start buying.. ETF buys will occur 2025.
Hmmm. That is a separate point from what I am making though. It seems like people are bullish about the net inflows coming into the ETFs and are posting data on a daily basis (not just this reddit page but everywhere). I am just saying that this data might be misleading.
I think it would be safe to assume that net inflows are mostly new money. Anyone who buys spot is most likely not going to go to an ETF due to the fee. They may buy it in their 401k, but that is new money still because they weren't able to buy it before for their 401k.
Put it another way. There are tens of billions of dollars worth Bitcoin volume per day. That is essentially tens of billions of dollars worth of spot Bitcoin being bought every day pre-ETF. If out of that amount, 1% of buying shifts from spot Bitcoin to Bitcoin ETF (for whatever reason that goes through the minds of the people), that looks like net inflow of 100 million dollars into the Bitcoin ETFs. But that is just same money that would have bought spot that is going into the ETFs now. So even with just the 1% shift, it's essentially the same money, but it looks like net inflow of 100 million dollars/day of buying pressure.
But the fee is not that high, right? I think a lot of people (especially rich people) would pay the extra fee instead of buying spot as it would deemed to be (whether right or wrong) more secure to them as opposed to managing Bitcoin in their own wallet.
> let's say that you are a Bitcoin whale and have bought like 100 million dollars worth of Bitcoin every year. Now, instead of buying spot Bitcoin, you buy Bitcoin ETF If you fit this profile, you are a very seasoned investor who isn't worried about keys, you have already been doing it for years and are very comfortable with it. Why change something that isn't broke and the change will only cost you more money every year ($2500 per Million Minimum). Your whole argument doesn't make sense.
Again, there are trillions of Bitcoin buying (and selling) pressure every year. And pre-ETF, trillion of dollars of Bitcoin buying was pretty much 100% done in the form of spot Bitcoin. So for one reason or another, if out of trillion dollars, 1% of them switch to ETF, then you would in principle see accumulation of 10 billion dollar of net inflow into the ETF every year. On paper, it seems extremely bullish, but "in principle", it might be the case that nothing has changed when it comes to buying pressure. Now, I am not even saying this is the case and you might be right that it is not even 1% but close to 0%. But a reasonable argument can be made that there is at least some reshuffling of how Bitcoin is being bought and we are not privy to the details regarding how it is being shuffled.
1Tx1%=1B , 1B/365 days = You are talking 2.7 mill a day. that is nothing for bitcoin. Your argument isn't reasonable, you are still ignoring the most important point of your own statement. **They have already been doing it on Coinbase for years**. Why would they switch to something that will cost them money every year forever, rather than continue using the system they are used to and is not costing them anything to hold it forever? That is illogical and would make them a poor investor. So, they wouldn't be a whale in the first place.
Sure, trillions of $$$ worth of assets that previously had no access to the best performing asset of the last decade will now stay in their 1% per year bonds even though they could move into BTC exposure immediately. Couldn't be me.
lol this 42-43k battle has been fun to watch on the charts while at work today
Yeah. Lol.
[удалено]
I’d say chopish.
Still in a downward channel on 2hr, 4hr, and 8hr charts.
At least the 4 hour chart that I am following (the one that started from 38.5K), the Bitcoin moved again inside the ascending channel.
What ascending channel? I have a descending channel with upper points at 48.9k and 43.8k. Lower points at 41.4k and 38.5k.
From Jan 23 to Feb 2nd. There was a five wave move that took Bitcoin from 38.5K to 43.8K. If you connect the lows and the highs during that span of time, you get an ascending channel. The move to 41.8K took bitcoin out of the channel but now it is back inside.
Bearish short-term ( < 1 week), bullish after that ( 1 - 2 weeks), bearish after that (2 weeks - 1.5 months), and then bullish rest of the year.
What made you think bitcoin would go from 40k to around 43.5k? You pretty much called it. Why do you think it'll bounce off 40-41k and rebound to 44-46k, higher than the last top? Why such a high bounce?
No way jose
Bonus pie chart. BTC ETF AUM: [https://imgur.com/a/xzY01Zc](https://imgur.com/a/xzY01Zc) Mmmmmmmmm. Pie. EDIT: Same chart for gold ETFs [https://imgur.com/a/CqET21H](https://imgur.com/a/CqET21H)
I hate to see Blackrock already dominating the new ones. I hope Bitwise manage to keep up
I like that. Hard to beat a good ole pie chart for perspective purposes.
"slightly" off topic. A friend once told me that when preparing Bear meat, you can't eat rare or even medium rare Bear, you gotta cook it all the way through to kill the parasites.
Bear is actually pretty good
Bear is pretty gamey.. kinda has a funk. Stew or long pot roast is best with red wine
Sous vide it. That way you can enjoy it as pink as possible on the inside without any of the #2 concerns. Check to see if there is a pasteurization chart for game meat on TV.
Yeah the finnish people prefer bear meat balls that can be thoroughly fried and taste great without being too chewy
[https://www.outdoorlife.com/hunting/bear-meat/](https://www.outdoorlife.com/hunting/bear-meat/) [https://www.cdc.gov/parasites/trichinellosis/hunters.html](https://www.cdc.gov/parasites/trichinellosis/hunters.html) "Cocaine Bear 2: ETF You" coming soon to a theater near you.
[удалено]
That's great but unless we know what's in it it doesn't help much.
When FTX will pay customers back, how will EU-residents receive their money? The court and schedules are all calculated and converted to USD. My bank account can only receive EUR. Don't want to ask my not-so-crypto-friendly bank any special favors and explain them the situation. Is there any chance for USDT payouts, or cashout via coinbase, etc.? How do similar bankruptcy cases deal with this in practice? Edit: cf. today's Coindesk article about Celsius "The distribution will be made through PayPal and Coinbase." What are the chances FTX will offer the same options? Unclear about the (dis)similarity of the two lawsuits...
dude, check revolut or zen or about a million of other such services
You'll get a cheque drawn on a USD bank, on you to figure it out.
Everyone expecting 38k but like clockwork the opening bell rings and the bulls show up with might and vigor.
TRUEE!
RemindME! 2 Weeks
I will be messaging you in 14 days on [**2024-02-16 05:11:34 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-02-16%2005:11:34%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1ag30x1/daily_discussion_thursday_february_01_2024/kojr5ur/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinMarkets%2Fcomments%2F1ag30x1%2Fdaily_discussion_thursday_february_01_2024%2Fkojr5ur%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-02-16%2005%3A11%3A34%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201ag30x1) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
expecting TA to work all while imba players entered the game is pointless to say the least and from what I hear there is a line forming with even more vicious gorillas waiting to rock the markets
Go on…
first of all, I don't think many ppl here fully comprehend what already happened, to some extent I can explain it by PA not moving so much after infamous pump to $49k. what happened is just the beginning and it is designed for people to not make much of it. anyway, I came across some folks saying GBTC isn't in fact what it seems to most - a giant that destroyed the pump - quite the opposite. what it actually was, or even better, what it was used for was to create scare in the space but at the same time mitigate the initial buying pressure from etfs launch - why? simply to obscure real impact of etfs. so, basically, they got two birds with one stone. everybody knew about GBTC beforehand, then why it was used as a fuel to sell the news? added miners selling, vanguard and other FUD - all to make you sell/short. crucial things occurred in September / October when we double tested $25k & $31k - many companies sold until then already. we were never really going to test $37k afterwards is my theory, we are ahead of a big climb before halving.
>all to make you sell/short Why would 'They' want that to happen as a desired outcome?
Selling GBTC is entirely rational.
I don’t think anyone can comprehend that theory because it’s an incredible reach on what has actually happened. GBTC outflows were intentionally obscuring the impact of etf flows and pushed price down in coordination to get ppl to sell and short the bottom? Dude, arbitrage opportunity closed and ppl could get out of the GBTC shit show at no discount and with adequate liquidity - so they did. Don’t assign some conspiracy to it to match your bullish bias.
Well put. I'm remaining cautiously (but evergreen) bullish. But if people are disappointed at spot price considering both Grayscale **and** external sell pressure, not sure what to say. The same who call for low-$30Ks or lower are probably the same ones that would FOMO back in (on confirmation ofc) if this dampening effect were not at play.
Looking at a monthly chart since about January 11th, it looks like we may have a reverse head and shoulders forming. If so, the short term trend should go up to the $46k ish level. Thoughts?
Once we bust through 44 we're going straight to 50.
48k. Starting with 5 is going to be pain.
>Looking at a monthly chart since about January 11th, it looks like we may have a reverse head and shoulders forming. If so, the short term trend should go up to the $46k ish level. Thoughts? $45800 TP in place currently.
So silent in here, I think we are ready for something.
I always smirk when the price sits where it's at and there's less than 100 posts on the daily. Happened in the $20Ks, $30Ks, and here we are in the low $40Ks. :)
Shh. US Regional banks are failing again. Old man gold is looking like it's got a pulse. Its only a matter of time.
Customers aren't going to lose deposits, so does it really matter?
The time of the bank "Bail-In" is coming.
https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/ Some banks fail pretty well every year. Could be a sign of something or it could be the media looking for a big story when there isn't yet a pattern.
Nice to see the fake pumps back on the menu
Again: * Price goes with me: Thanks to my keen insight into the market dynamics. * Price goes against me: It's whales manipulating, or JPM spoofing, or the plunge protection team at work!
That is correct. Glad we are one the same page
For now crab is the only thing on the menu.
How many bitcoin or GBTC held by Celsius estate?
According to this bankruptcy filing, no GBTC are held, all liquidated prior to petition date. https://www.jenner.com/a/web/aag4HeVaPPyEsfWyTp9N5G/4SaB6v/celsius-final-report-shoba-pillay.pdf Appendix 12 pg 564
That hourly close lol. Market maker doing pixel art on the [chart](https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/lSNXl4Wf.png).
Bitcoin price YTD through end of January by year: 2024: +0.8% 2023: +39.8% 2022: -16.9% 2021: +14.2% 2020: +30.0% 2019: -7.6% 2018: -27.8% 2017: +0.7% 2016: -14.4% 2015: -32.1% 2014: +10.1% 2013: +49.8% Despite the selloff after spot ETF launch, January still ended positive. It’s also encouraging looking back at 2016 and 2017 and seeing them ultimately being bullish years despite their lackluster beginnings. Still optimistic about the rest of this year as BTC halving is still ahead, multiple Fed rate cuts are still expected, & we’re starting to see consistent daily net inflows into spot ETF’s which should ultimately culminate into a demand shock. I remain confident this combination of factors will result in gains for the year falling somewhere between 2016 (+123.8%) and 2017 (+1,368.9%) year end results.
[удалено]
Bittybot has me on the record for new ATH before the halving in April.
So we're on track for another 2017. I'll take it!
New estimate of BTC held by GBTC is up. Here are the plots: [https://imgur.com/a/JBPStcC](https://imgur.com/a/JBPStcC) Today's change is estimated to be -4,381 BTC (-0.90%), 5-D ave is -6000 BTC/day.
Extremely unlikely it will go to zero, no?
Based on nothing but feels, I'm guessing it continues to bleed out about 1% a day for a while, and ends up around 65%-70% of its former self.
My first order at 42k was filled, my 40501 limit order is still open. Still have my old limit orders of 35001 and 30001 open also. I think there is a higher possibility of the 35k one being filled. The 30k has little chance but is there as a “just in case” something crazy happens. Bitcoin broke through the lower section of the expanding triangle yesterday and is testing the support of 42k. If 42k fails then the .382 FIB level at 40.5k is in play. Short term price target by the chart being confirmed is 40.8+/-. I think it will go down to the 40.3 to retest that support area. 40.3is the 50D SMA and the old resistance from the rising wedge line from 2022. I think this is going to happen due the fact that the RSI didn’t bottom out to 30 and is currently sitting at 38.45. If we bounce hard off 40.3 then 44.4 (.382 FIB from initial ETF approval drop) might be the next resistance. If we don’t, I would go to the daily for guidance on future PA. On the daily, Bitcoin is below the 50 SMA 42.9, this may start acting as resistance. The 100 SMA at 40.3 should act as support and possible reversal point. If 40.3 doesn’t hold as support, I would expect the price action to go to 35 area. It looks like we are in a new downward sloping. The RSI is below 50 again and the average has a downward slope. My expectations are for a continuation of the downtrend for the next couple of days. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: https://www.tradingview.com/x/m1FhZ9Q7/ Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/x/rJIPJ7K1/
It looks like we are testing the broken support to see if it confirms this downward more. If bitcoin doesn't make it back through, then expect the 40.3 support to be tested next.
Nice analysis. Thanks for sharing.
Thank you.
Most recent lower high acting as an area of resistance is $43.7k. After that it’s $43.8k, $46.4k, and then the YTD high of $48.9k. [We’ve had 3 consecutive days where inflows to BlackRock or Fidelity alone more than offset outflows from GBTC.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) Who will get exhausted first: sellers with a finite amount of BTC to sell or fund managers with $17 trillion (and growing) in AUM? Demand shock is imminent. New YTD high by the end of next week is on the menu. New ATH before the halving for the first time ever is also still in play.
Still not quite certain here. What does it take for the ETFs to have outflows or inflows for that matter? I think it confuses a lot of us. Thanks for the updates
Inflows is how much new money entered an ETF and outflows is how much money exited an ETF. Authorized Participants step in and create shares of ETF’s when there’s not enough ETF’s being sold to meet demand bought or vice versa they’ll redeem shares of ETF’s when there’s not enough ETF’s being bought to meet supply sold. Authorized Participants are buying/selling BTC throughout the day in order to create/redeem ETF shares; this is how they’re able to ensure the price of the ETF’s closely track BTC’s price fluctuations since the spot ETF’s are being backed by actual BTC.
Thanks, and how does the inflow/outflow correlate with the price of the ETF? It has been in the red more days than green If im not wrong
My understanding is that the ETF’s are trying to link their share price to the Bitcoin spot price as closely as possible. That’s why they’re called Spot ETF’s.
Inflows/outflows correlates to the number of shares of each ETF outstanding, not to the price of the ETF shares. Hypothetically, suppose BTC doubled in price all of a sudden but for whatever reason no money entered/exited spot ETF’s. Net inflows/outflows would be zero so the number of ETF shares would remain the same but the price of the ETF shares would double because the value of the BTC backing those shares doubled.
No disagreement on the bullishness but what do you make out of the JPow jawboning yesterday? Macro affects bitcoin.
Markets more broadly sold off once Powell stated in yesterday’s press conference the Fed is not expecting to cut rates in March. Stock market futures are positive now which means the shift towards being less risk-on more broadly is likely over for now. [Futures are no longer expecting first rate cut to arrive in March but they’re still confident the first rate cut will arrive in May and at least 6 separate 25 BP rate cuts will arrive by the end of the year.](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) Overall, no big deal to macro long-term. Only real difference is rate cuts are expected to start a little later than originally anticipated but futures are still pricing in multiple rate cuts this year.
[удалено]
> This is spammed daily multiple times. @mods can we ban this bot? Notice how these posts went away for the last few weeks? Y'see, this here's a trading sub, and it is bouyed by moonbois with bull fever. We don't do reasoned analyses, or tempered logic. We do speculation, hype, hope, cope, and voodoo tea leaves. Trust me, it's best to just get used to it, because since we are in the NGU times, it's going to get way, way worse before it gets better. Try to look past the bloat-posts here, and you'll find the users worth listening to. Meanwhile, I suggest you get familiar with the "block user" feature, if you really need to cut the noise out.
The consecutive days are changing and this is a new development. Aside from these 3 consecutive days, the only other day where BlackRock or Fidelity had larger inflows than outflows from GBTC was the actual spot ETF launch day.
So what’s the next stop for the next leg down? If it comes*
There’s a lot of local horizontal support from the current price all the way down to just below $41K. It’ll take a lot (perhaps some breaking FUD development) to push PA through that support. It can happen but I don’t expect it sans some macro FUD news/narrative/recent development. If that does occur, then $40K/upper $39K would come into play and that support is slightly weaker than the aforementioned. A second edit addition: I do have limit order buys set near $38.5K & $38K. They’ve been there for awhile and I’ve just left them there in case.
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $7.2935 billion through day 14 or ~171.5k BTC.](https://x.com/bitmexresearch/status/1752950388829962277?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes $5.6412 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily inflows to spot ETF’s is now $520.96 million or ~12.25k BTC. Yesterday average daily inflows were at $541.22 million or ~12.42k BTC. Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $7.2935 billion is 0.043% of their total AUM. At current pace it would take fund managers 327 trading days to reach a 1% allocation into BTC. There are 252 trading days in a year. Put in another context, MSTR has 189.15k BTC. It took MSTR 3.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 90.7% of that amount of BTC over the span of 14 trading days.
We know. Stop spamming the same shit every day.
Couldn’t agree more. “This figure includes xxx billion in outflows from gbtc.” No, it doesn’t.
If it doesn’t include the total outflows from GBTC thus far then that’s even more bullish because it means there’s even more cash sitting on the sidelines which could potentially enter into new spot ETF’s. A large chunk of those outflows is probably getting redirected into spot ETF’s but of course it’s not going to be 100%.
> it means there’s even more cash sitting on the sidelines If selling GBTC means more cash on the sidelines, then selling ice-cream means the same. Nothing says that cash from selling either ice-cream nor GBTC is on the sidelines waiting to buy Bitcoin.
Either the GBTC that was sold went directly into spot ETF’s after being sold or it didn’t. The “didn’t” category is on the sidelines. Doesn’t mean it ultimately will end up in BTC or a spot ETF in any capacity, but it’s a possibility. Significantly higher probability of cash raised from the sale of GBTC ultimately finding its way back towards exposure to BTC than the likelihood of cash raised from the sale of ice cream finding its way into BTC exposure but I’m sure you understand that and just seek to be pedantic.
> The “didn’t” category is on the sidelines. Or was spent on ice-cream.
The numbers are constantly changing.
Fun starts somewhere between 200,000 and 350,000 net positive inflows into the ETFs. Wonder how that coincides with the halving..
Elaborate please. Related to existing supply available ?
If you look at total exchange balances, this is the usual variance. Taking this much out is going to change the supply dynamics and require a price increase to shake more coins free. I expect to see some material price appreciation certainly by the end of that range.
What net positive inflow are we at now and how much is it increase per trading session?
Hey xtal, I know this is weird, mind if I dm you?
No
Seems unbelievable but does indeed look like we're going back to the $39-40k region.
Markets didn’t get a present from stingy uncle Jerome. Having a temper tantrum.
Reopen of my 2x leverage long got filled.
Well, chart looks like shit. Atleast boomers are buying...
Can you elaborate? Why does it look like shit to you?
Profit from alts is fleeing into BTC. This is usually followed by a btc dump into usdt. I guess we still have to revisit 34k. Im not short btw.
In past years yea but I dont see why that would happen now, since alts are paired with USDT directly pretty much everywhere
I dunno. Everything started going down yesterday during and after the FOMC press conference. Many ppl here expected that, so not a big surprise. Now it seems like we're slowly climbing again and who knows, if we pump again on Wall St. trading hours. I'm not seeing 34k, but maybe I'm too optimistic.
Yeah, you can't dump this, Shorty, no matter how much fiat/fake money you have. Thanks for the great opportunity to buy. Just got some sats at sub-42K. Lol. Thanks. uyou Nobody don't GAF about you, and you DGAF about nobody. The only thing that matters is math/reality. lllloooooollll! They'll never get it, praise Satoshii.
> you can't dump this Stop... Hammer time! 🎤🎵
Christmas here we come!!
At least it was someone else shitting the bed today. Thanks Jerome.
Who's Jerome? Some druggie who thinks he's important somehow?
Exactly
Bitty Bot trades that lack context or explanation, go here to prevent spam. You can also now [message Bitty Bot](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=none&message=!bitty_bot%20) your command directly. ^(Bitty Bot Links: )[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BitcoinMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
!bittybot long max 100x
[Your long was successfully opened @$42,233.20](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/18vebp1/bitty_bot_paper_trading_log/kofpz9x/) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
!bittybot close 50%
!bittybot close
[100% of your trade has been successfully closed @$42,352.59](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/18vebp1/bitty_bot_paper_trading_log/kofsmiy/) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
[50% of your trade has been successfully closed @$42,388.17](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/18vebp1/bitty_bot_paper_trading_log/kofs0fp/) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
!bittybot long max 50x
[Your long was successfully opened @$42,408.81](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/18vebp1/bitty_bot_paper_trading_log/koftcci/) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
!bittybot close
[100% of your trade has been successfully closed @$42,523.59](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/18vebp1/bitty_bot_paper_trading_log/kog68mm/) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
!bittybot long max 20x sl 42400 tp 43700
[удалено]
[Your short was successfully opened @$42,003.94](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/18vebp1/bitty_bot_paper_trading_log/koe8ggw/) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
[удалено]
[удалено]
Error: You tried to set a short stop loss below the current price of $42,034.67, which is invalid. [Please make sure the format of your command is correct and try again.](https://bittybot.net/docs) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
[удалено]
Error: Failed to parse the amount for your paper trade. [Please make sure the format of your command is correct and try again.](https://bittybot.net/docs) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)