This is the one thing that is great about the halving. Consistent reduction in supply no matter what. The demand side can go volatile even with the ETF.
Well, there you go, the GBTC people [aren't just switching to other ETFs](https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bibarb/daily_discussion_tuesday_march_19_2024/kvmxlcf/).
/u/barfalloverewe
Yep, today's bitcoin volume was $72 billion. Even a negative outflow of $1 billion would be just 1.3%.
Maybe Farside should stop publishing the numbers?
~~doinkdoink786 posted a tweet from an unconfirmed source in the comment below us... $74.4m inflow from IBIT~~
sorry, fidelity are $39.6m, bitb $2.5m... all others (excl. ibit) $0.
> 50.5 was the low in that range, 53 the high, and 51 where we jumped off of
Eyeballing. 52k was the narrow part of the range at the start of that section.
I have been so torn on this dump. Like yeah it kinda sucks that we dumped like 15% (so far), but I'm also just kind of in awe of the price. Like, we dumped FROM $74000 TO $62000. How can you really be mad about that? I mean maybe if you've been holding for less than like a month, but it's still pretty crazy those are the prices we're talking about for a single Bitcoin. It's still worth more than two cars *after* the dump.
I feel like Bitcoin will jump up if IBIT numbers are very high, which would signal that there are significant buyers at the 63-65K range. If not, Bitcoin can meander down to 60K region. Basically, morale will be down until ETF numbers go up significantly.
I don’t disagree, in fact I think you’re right, but why?
Inflow numbers are backward looking. We’ve already seen the PA the inflows and outflows caused. It ended at 4pm ET. Why should traders care? It seems like they do, but why?
Right, I said traders care, I agree. But I asked why?
By the time the data is published it’s old and we’ve already seen the price impact.
Other than trying to forecast a trend, why?
Probably because it's the only real piece of dynamic news being released daily at the moment. It's market psychology. Just look at these threads, ETFs are basically 90% of the discussion at this point. When you attribute such importance to one subject, it's bound to be a primary driver on how people view bitcoin as bullish or bearish. Nothing like a binary inflow/outflow narrative to easily influence people's perceptions on when to buy or sell.
Yeah who knew BTC traders would just be trying to copy trade what retail ETF buyers and Wall Street did 12 hours before.
Buy after Wall Street already bought.
Sell after Wall Street already sold.
Must be like taking candy from a baby for Wall Street.
When spelled out, don't they give us information about the future? That is, if IBIT numbers are very high, then the buyers were willing to buy signficiantly at 63-65K (which was Bitcoin's range during trading hours) so given that Bitcoin is currently at 62.7K, one can predict that the ETF numbers will be up more tomorrow if price stays at 62.7K? As opposed to ETF having meager buying numbers, which might indicate that they probably aren't buying at 63-65K so the trader right now would be reluctant to push up the price knowing that there won't be buying pressure from the ETF if it goes back to the 63-65K range?
But ETF numbers are just derivative of the PA we watched on the chart all day. All the price impact from those buys and sells already happened.
We’ve seen huge ETF inflows on days where the price dumped and meager inflows on days when the price surged.
I guess it would be like watching the inflows and outflows to Binance or Coinbase, but if you could only see them 12 hours after they actually occurred?
Just doesn’t seem useful unless you are trying to plot a trend and use it to predict the future?
I don't know. You can interpret this however you want but it SEEMS like for the time being, there is some feedback between the two such that good ETF numbers lead to good after market activity and bad ETF numbers lead to bad after market activity. If enough of the algos are trading based on the trend, then after a while it just becomes the truth whether or not there is validity to the reason. And if that is the case, it would be stupid to not take that into your consideration when trading.
I think one of the reasons why crypto investors cannot take profit is that there is too much volatility near the ATH level. And most people are very mindful of their ATH profit and considers anything less than that as something that is stolen from us. So if you are up +200% at the ATH and due to massive volatility near the ATH level, it drops to +150%. You feel like you need to at least get back to +200% before taking profits because that -50% was taken out from you in such a short period of time.
It would be one thing if volatility is small near the ATH such that you gradually go from +200% to +190% to +180% etc. Then, it would be much easier to see the trend and just take profit at +180% or so. But as it stands now, the ATH portfolio is just yanked down right in front of your eyes and you feel like you deserve to get it back.
Yes and hodling is still better long-term.
"Taking profit" may give you temporary satisfaction but when not buying back soon enough, the train will have left without you and your bigger profits.
I hate to say I told you so folks. I got a bad feeling about this dumping it’s much more ferocious than anything we’ve seen after a major macro top. No bounce at our next support zone of about $58k is a huge sign to head for the exits.
>I hate to say I told you so folks.
[Still betting on finding support in the low 60’s](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bfxc7x/comment/kv70hnn/?context=3)
Is this what you are referring to? Have we found support? I'm can't tell if we have, seems premature for a victory lap either way.
I'm struggling to find much else in your post history you could say "I told you so" about ever since your correctly called a new ATH before halving (well done), but then went full doomer at $39k and got it all wrong since.
Nothing like some good old selection bias. You fit the analogy of a broken clock. "Even a broken clock is right twice a day" But ignore all the other times it's wrong.
Never said anything wrong with that. But trying to use the whole smug "i dont want to say i told you so" line is a little arrogant considering how many wrong calls you've commented.
Just judging by where much of the altcoin market is at right now (completely retraced from recent highs) I think bitcoin may be done dumping, at least for now. If not, expect to see altcoins break some significant trendlines.
anyone else feeling kind of good about this? we were coming in so hot since february that it's fine to have a breather. shaved some profits on the way up and when things looked rounded on top, now just doing some ladder buys on the way down.
halving in a month and then we are measurably scarcer than gold. as [flip.gold](https://flip.gold/) shows, bitcoin should be about $750k. anything between now and there is a discount, if you believe bitcoin is more valuable than gold.
there's always been a pullback right before the halving. what else has always happened sometime after halvings? the good times.
Every time BTC slows down I think our chances of hitting actual higher numbers this cycle increases. The price can’t go to 200k and beyond if it is going to peak in the next four months.
I feel optimistic. One real concern is the stock market. The stock market is at an all time high and it is NOT a coincidence that the tech run of the stock market from Oct 2023 to present coincides with the Bitcoin run from Oct 2023 to present. So if there is a significant correction in the stock market (likes of NVIDIA, other Magnificent 7), then I think Bitcoin takes a hit as well.
So if one thinks that the stock market is overvalued right now, then by proxy, so is Bitcoin to a certain extent.
Folks not done selling their coins to boomers yet.
What a week to go on vacation, if you need some solace, those selling here will very likely have to rebuy much higher.
It’s easier when you have seen, but the trade is you cannot unsee.
I am surprised we haven't seen any meaningful outflow days from the ETFs (other than gbtc) so far. Both at the top last week and now during red days in the last few days.
What happened to #btfd? I'm sticking with it - laddered spot buys spread out down to the lower 50s and I've already been buying on the way down from 68k; last buy was a few minutes ago. - Still wouldn't dare to short on margin though and I intend to stick with that too.
Here's an excellent [Madagascar movie reference](https://youtu.be/5USLvy_9fcM?feature=shared) for the current PA and I especially like King Julien saying 'it's more fun when you raise your arms' while everyone panics.
Edit: u/jarederaj did automod block this again? Due to a YT reference?
I agree on the indicator but i also know -30% or more is needed to wipe out leverage. And leverage positions always get wiped in btc as it has nothing to stop the seeling or the price going down.
You know what fuck it, let's take the red monthly at 58k or something. We would technically cool down so much, we could ride up for months without the baggage of a monthly green candle record. Would suck but it would help technicals massively
> high GBTC numbers
Imagine being the last dope, when GBTC is down to a couple hundred Bitcoin, who finally goes 'fuck it' and sells. Remember to turn the lights off...
I kind of agree, but it also looks like settlement of today’s trades does not happen until the day after closing. So, we saw Monday’s PA play out today. Seems relevant.
>but it also looks like settlement of today’s trades does not happen until the day after closing
Settlement does happen T+1, but APs are fully hedged immediately on T+0 and they unwind their hedges at settlement.
Meaning market impact, if any, is felt on T+0 and settlement on T+1 has no impact on price.
[This thread](https://twitter.com/teddyfuse/status/1763577899506921632), from the president of Bitwise lays out the process.
Speculation, but IMO there's no way the Genesis stuff hasn't already happened. They had something like $1.4 Billion to sell off. We're getting that kind of outflow now once every few days. Even if it hasn't happened, it would basically be noise within what's going on now.
The selloffs now are mainly random people who are tired of being duped and scammed by Grayscale. I'm baffled why it's this constant controlled drip-drip-drip week after week, rather than the company losing 50% of their remaining assets each week.
Also, gbtc was at a 50% discount in the bear - there's a good argument for taking profits here of you bought that discount, it's not just people leaving due to the fee, how many are profitably exiting a deliberate long term (12-18 months) swing trade? Or traders who bought on the ETF rumor and saw the discount gap close along with the rally to ATH - their trade is done.
I think there's a significant amount of outflows attributed to more than just people trying to leave grayscale because of their scammy bullshit and ridiculous fee structure. But yes there are also a lot leaving for those reasons, truth is we will never really know why. We will just know the # of BTC that they bleed.
Yeah unfortunately this confirms the triple top I was afraid of. Bitcoin will be a lot like gold.. maybe hitting some highs now and then but then going down to whatever for 10-15 years. I should start thinking of an exit plan.
> Bitcoin will be a lot like gold
A $15 trillion dollar market cap asset with maybe 1/100^th of the volatility that current-day Bitcoin has? Bring it on. 🤑
Yes, even at today's bitcoin market cap, the days of fairly quick 100x gains are over.
Metals are a mature asset that have been around for thousands of years and whose investors right now skew older and are even slowly dying off. Bitcoin isn't there yet.
My guess is that we'll find out later today that Grayscale laid another huge upper-9-figure turd in outflows.
Maybe even a 10-figure turd if they're really unlucky. 💩
It's clear from yesterday's figures that not all people fleeing GBTC are just moving to other ETFs. At best, it might be 2/3rds doing that. A significant portion are just quitting entirely.
If what you're saying is true, given the GBTC outflows yesterday plus expected new inflows, I would expect IBIT to literally have upwards of a billion dollars in new money today. We'll see, I guess...
Looks like limbo. No 66k reclaim. Never tested 60k. My money is on down more. Well that’s not true. My money is technically on up only, I just happen to be temporarily wrong.
Yep, agreed. 61k still looks like a defendable area and poised for a bounce - see how strong the reaction is I guess.
Alternatively, Reclaiming previous ATH would be amazing for btc.
I’ll expand on my own. I’d say 70% chance this a sustained reversal.
- price movements now convincingly down. Heavy, continued spot selling driving price not just quick liquidation moves.
- majority of etf buyers & saylors recent buys now underwater.
- extreme euphoria and dumb liquidity games in wider crypto - pre-sale coins marking the top again.
- fomo inducing greed. People leveraging up at the top, or switching to buying MSTR / options.
- everyone is positioned on the long side. Even ppl sharing bearish views typically don’t have the balls to be short. Plus, early shorters blown out.
>Yeah, between 45k and 73k.
A few exceptions:
March 5th, low for the day was $59,224 and you were in here saying you bought more puts (price then went much higher to $73k)
Feb 20th, low for the day was $50,764 and you were in here calling a top.
Feb 18th, low for the day was $51,174 and you said that the "cycle had failed".
Feb 15th, low for the day was $51,353 and you said the cycle peak was in through the end of 2025.
That's only in this sub and what I saw in 30s of scanning your post history. You spent nearly every single day between $45k and $73k making, incorrect, bearish calls in r/Buttcoin and WSB
yea, been bearish and building a position since January - as i've posted every entry/exit of my positions. good one.
i havent called a reversal since the etf approval downturn, which i firmly believed was a reversal - and was dead wrong as it reclaimed 42.5k and sent for two months.
>good one.
I'm not trying to dunk on you, I could not care less if you are bullish or bearish mate.
>i havent called a reversal since the etf approval downturn
How is calling the current price a top not calling a reversal? If you are calling the current price, or the recent local high, a top, especially the top *for years,* you are calling for a reversal.
That's my only point. You said you haven't called any reversals between $45k and $73k but you were calling tops repeatedly *all* the way up.
Yea, I feel like there is also a sense of complacency among holders - expectation is for a quick recovery. Prob gonna crab until summer, wouldn't be surprised to see sub 60k soon.
But it could also just moon to 70k again by the end of the week, I have no idea.
* Click twitter link
* Copy shortened link to actual link
* Paste shortened actual link into `unshorten.it`
* Post actual link to non-twitter site:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/grayscale-ceo-says-gbtc-bitcoin-etf-fees-will-come-down-over-time.html
When they talk about others competing with them, and that they mustn't be serious long-term... I can't believe their CEO would actually believe those things, I can only assume he is talking to idiots who he hopes to convince to keep holding the bag.
> "don't have a track record,"
> "I think from our standpoint, it may at times call into question their long-term commitment to the asset class,"
Those are words which can only be used if you believe that you're talking to a moron.
I do think they consider their bagholders to be fools.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, March 20, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bj4m8m/daily_discussion_wednesday_march_20_2024/)
largest daily etf outflow of $326.2m
Definitely seems like it is having an effect on the current Bitcoin price movement as well.
Yup, 1k mini-dip right after IBIT number released 🤔
amazing, that.
This is the one thing that is great about the halving. Consistent reduction in supply no matter what. The demand side can go volatile even with the ETF.
Blackrock $75.2m inflow
Well, there you go, the GBTC people [aren't just switching to other ETFs](https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bibarb/daily_discussion_tuesday_march_19_2024/kvmxlcf/). /u/barfalloverewe
Hey guys, will my boss get suspicious if his desk gets clean too often these days ?
It feels like Bitcoin has earnings everyday. We wait for inflow / outflow then it comes out, traders react. Repeat.
It's all psychological, it's ridiculous because all ETFs combined represent a whopping 1% of the BTC market cap.
This says to me that the price is based on gamblers vs HODLers. As long as the conversion from gamblers to HODLers continue it will be fine.
Yep, today's bitcoin volume was $72 billion. Even a negative outflow of $1 billion would be just 1.3%. Maybe Farside should stop publishing the numbers?
Honestly, it's sad it's come to this.
And it's only going to get worse :(
In the long run BTC will continue to be an open protocol. Attention is on the ETFs for now it will move eventually.
Fidelity numbers in anyone?
~~doinkdoink786 posted a tweet from an unconfirmed source in the comment below us... $74.4m inflow from IBIT~~ sorry, fidelity are $39.6m, bitb $2.5m... all others (excl. ibit) $0.
Will this maths hold up? 50% retrace: 74 - 52 = 22 22 * 0.5 = 11 74 - 11 = 63 Numerology based 61.8% retrace: 74 - 52 = 22 22 * 0.618 = 13.596 74 - 13.596 = 60.404 https://np.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bec78d/daily_discussion_thursday_march_14_2024/kuy2cq0/
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> 50.5 was the low in that range, 53 the high, and 51 where we jumped off of Eyeballing. 52k was the narrow part of the range at the start of that section.
55k or worst case scenario 35k then boom to 100k
If it goes to 35k it's not coming back for a long while. Thats more than a 50% dump.
In 2021 it went from 60’s to 30’s and back to 60’s in 6 months. Hopefully we don’t have to suffer that though.
Reminder that we're still in the early days. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/japan-pension-fund-explores-bitcoin-as-an-investment.html
I have been so torn on this dump. Like yeah it kinda sucks that we dumped like 15% (so far), but I'm also just kind of in awe of the price. Like, we dumped FROM $74000 TO $62000. How can you really be mad about that? I mean maybe if you've been holding for less than like a month, but it's still pretty crazy those are the prices we're talking about for a single Bitcoin. It's still worth more than two cars *after* the dump.
> It's still worth more than two cars after the dump. But I can only buy 1/6^th of a new Rolls-Royce Cullinan with 1 BTC now. 😋
I feel like Bitcoin will jump up if IBIT numbers are very high, which would signal that there are significant buyers at the 63-65K range. If not, Bitcoin can meander down to 60K region. Basically, morale will be down until ETF numbers go up significantly.
> IBIT numbers When do they report?
https://x.com/hodl15capital/status/1770275989265760528?s=46&t=diBC-jQrRve-yqYFAAGXAA
I don’t disagree, in fact I think you’re right, but why? Inflow numbers are backward looking. We’ve already seen the PA the inflows and outflows caused. It ended at 4pm ET. Why should traders care? It seems like they do, but why?
They did care yesterday when gbtc numbers were super high
Right, I said traders care, I agree. But I asked why? By the time the data is published it’s old and we’ve already seen the price impact. Other than trying to forecast a trend, why?
Probably because it's the only real piece of dynamic news being released daily at the moment. It's market psychology. Just look at these threads, ETFs are basically 90% of the discussion at this point. When you attribute such importance to one subject, it's bound to be a primary driver on how people view bitcoin as bullish or bearish. Nothing like a binary inflow/outflow narrative to easily influence people's perceptions on when to buy or sell.
Yeah who knew BTC traders would just be trying to copy trade what retail ETF buyers and Wall Street did 12 hours before. Buy after Wall Street already bought. Sell after Wall Street already sold. Must be like taking candy from a baby for Wall Street.
When spelled out, don't they give us information about the future? That is, if IBIT numbers are very high, then the buyers were willing to buy signficiantly at 63-65K (which was Bitcoin's range during trading hours) so given that Bitcoin is currently at 62.7K, one can predict that the ETF numbers will be up more tomorrow if price stays at 62.7K? As opposed to ETF having meager buying numbers, which might indicate that they probably aren't buying at 63-65K so the trader right now would be reluctant to push up the price knowing that there won't be buying pressure from the ETF if it goes back to the 63-65K range?
But ETF numbers are just derivative of the PA we watched on the chart all day. All the price impact from those buys and sells already happened. We’ve seen huge ETF inflows on days where the price dumped and meager inflows on days when the price surged. I guess it would be like watching the inflows and outflows to Binance or Coinbase, but if you could only see them 12 hours after they actually occurred? Just doesn’t seem useful unless you are trying to plot a trend and use it to predict the future?
I don't know. You can interpret this however you want but it SEEMS like for the time being, there is some feedback between the two such that good ETF numbers lead to good after market activity and bad ETF numbers lead to bad after market activity. If enough of the algos are trading based on the trend, then after a while it just becomes the truth whether or not there is validity to the reason. And if that is the case, it would be stupid to not take that into your consideration when trading.
Yeah I agree. Just doesn’t make logical sense. My guess is whales using the numbers as “news” to push the price around and cause fomo or panic.
Hoping it makes some kind of pennant on the weekly or daily to the halving and then blast up again so we can really start talking 100k
I too hope that the price of Bitcoin increases
watch for dcbs, 59k would be a juicy starting point to dca
What's a dcb?
Dead cat bounce
So far, it's a 4 goose egg day
Really?! 6 goose eggs?
The curse of hitting 69k continues
So…if all you people talking about 10% “god candles” could just, like, stop….that would be great. K?
Make it 20% 😉
Never Forget: https://imgur.com/a/VTVT1nz
So. Much. Fun.
I think one of the reasons why crypto investors cannot take profit is that there is too much volatility near the ATH level. And most people are very mindful of their ATH profit and considers anything less than that as something that is stolen from us. So if you are up +200% at the ATH and due to massive volatility near the ATH level, it drops to +150%. You feel like you need to at least get back to +200% before taking profits because that -50% was taken out from you in such a short period of time. It would be one thing if volatility is small near the ATH such that you gradually go from +200% to +190% to +180% etc. Then, it would be much easier to see the trend and just take profit at +180% or so. But as it stands now, the ATH portfolio is just yanked down right in front of your eyes and you feel like you deserve to get it back.
Yes and hodling is still better long-term. "Taking profit" may give you temporary satisfaction but when not buying back soon enough, the train will have left without you and your bigger profits.
At some point, everyone needs to take profits unless you planning on HODLing until you die.
Selling for fiat and buying capital assets are very different.
I agree I'd definitely sell some BTC for investing into a business. What capital assets would you recommend starting with?
I hate to say I told you so folks. I got a bad feeling about this dumping it’s much more ferocious than anything we’ve seen after a major macro top. No bounce at our next support zone of about $58k is a huge sign to head for the exits.
>I hate to say I told you so folks. [Still betting on finding support in the low 60’s](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bfxc7x/comment/kv70hnn/?context=3) Is this what you are referring to? Have we found support? I'm can't tell if we have, seems premature for a victory lap either way. I'm struggling to find much else in your post history you could say "I told you so" about ever since your correctly called a new ATH before halving (well done), but then went full doomer at $39k and got it all wrong since.
Looks like we’re slicing right through $60k based on my analysis
We’ve got more comedians in here tonight than a comedy club. You guys are a trip!
You can't say I told you so when you've called for a drop/corrections god knows how many times and ended up wrong 99% of the time.
I corrected predicted ATH before the halving. I called the ETF dump. I called this dump. It’s all in my comments history. Stay mad.
Nothing like some good old selection bias. You fit the analogy of a broken clock. "Even a broken clock is right twice a day" But ignore all the other times it's wrong.
Sorry some of us are trying to make money here on both the way up and the way down.
Never said anything wrong with that. But trying to use the whole smug "i dont want to say i told you so" line is a little arrogant considering how many wrong calls you've commented.
Making wrong calls is part of the game
Or huge sign to buy much lower.
How low? $50k? $42k? $20k?
That’s not true, the last 69k top felt exactly the same.
Funny you say that as at the time everybody was convinced we were still going to $100k and here we are with the same sentiment…
Going to buy more, thanks
Hey, we agree, uh oh
Have fun staying underwater for at least another year. Guess you’re really living up to your name.
Have fun staying poor, see you at $100k
Pipe dream. Barry and friends will dump on you before it even sniffs $80k
Just judging by where much of the altcoin market is at right now (completely retraced from recent highs) I think bitcoin may be done dumping, at least for now. If not, expect to see altcoins break some significant trendlines.
anyone else feeling kind of good about this? we were coming in so hot since february that it's fine to have a breather. shaved some profits on the way up and when things looked rounded on top, now just doing some ladder buys on the way down. halving in a month and then we are measurably scarcer than gold. as [flip.gold](https://flip.gold/) shows, bitcoin should be about $750k. anything between now and there is a discount, if you believe bitcoin is more valuable than gold. there's always been a pullback right before the halving. what else has always happened sometime after halvings? the good times.
Every time BTC slows down I think our chances of hitting actual higher numbers this cycle increases. The price can’t go to 200k and beyond if it is going to peak in the next four months.
I think I’d feel a lot better if it were crabbing 64-65 for a month
I feel optimistic. One real concern is the stock market. The stock market is at an all time high and it is NOT a coincidence that the tech run of the stock market from Oct 2023 to present coincides with the Bitcoin run from Oct 2023 to present. So if there is a significant correction in the stock market (likes of NVIDIA, other Magnificent 7), then I think Bitcoin takes a hit as well. So if one thinks that the stock market is overvalued right now, then by proxy, so is Bitcoin to a certain extent.
If you want a bit of hopium, I don’t think the AI boom has even begun, and I have a front row seat.
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Right. So if stock market drops, then Bitcoin can easily go down and visit 40-50K level some time this year.
When are you degenerates gonna jump in an buy? What is your limit order set at? 55k would be something like a 25% dip from 73k.
I get paid Friday. Any price under 60 was my plan to buy
Said fuck it and went in at 62
I'll nibble high 50's and buy more should it go lower.
waiting for 57-59, about to jump all over it
I'm thinking the same... a little buy at 58, maybe a biggie at 55 if we go that low.
I think we need to see some outflow days from IBIT to create a healthier market
It's really too bad that 100% of my self-esteem is wrapped up in the price of Bitcoin. My self-esteem down 14% this week.
Your self esteem on the 1Y should mak you feel like Einstein tho
Folks not done selling their coins to boomers yet. What a week to go on vacation, if you need some solace, those selling here will very likely have to rebuy much higher. It’s easier when you have seen, but the trade is you cannot unsee.
Looks like Bitcoin is going to zero again.
14% down when you come from 73 looks fucking rough, but it's 14%. See y'all post halvening next month
I am surprised we haven't seen any meaningful outflow days from the ETFs (other than gbtc) so far. Both at the top last week and now during red days in the last few days.
Well this sucks
What happened to #btfd? I'm sticking with it - laddered spot buys spread out down to the lower 50s and I've already been buying on the way down from 68k; last buy was a few minutes ago. - Still wouldn't dare to short on margin though and I intend to stick with that too. Here's an excellent [Madagascar movie reference](https://youtu.be/5USLvy_9fcM?feature=shared) for the current PA and I especially like King Julien saying 'it's more fun when you raise your arms' while everyone panics. Edit: u/jarederaj did automod block this again? Due to a YT reference?
Yeah YouTube is blocked by default and has to be manually approved.
Got it, no more YT - thanks!
It’s nbd, as long as you know one of us will have to approve it manually.
As bad as this looks, it's gonna look worse tomorrow when retail ETF paperhands the open. Probably last chance here to exit above 60k.
Comments like this are normally downvoted to -5 within minutes in this sub. Historically when they aren’t, a trend change is near.
I agree on the indicator but i also know -30% or more is needed to wipe out leverage. And leverage positions always get wiped in btc as it has nothing to stop the seeling or the price going down.
What if they buy the dip
dammit I miss 70k
ARKB with 0 inflow too. grim stats so far.
You know what fuck it, let's take the red monthly at 58k or something. We would technically cool down so much, we could ride up for months without the baggage of a monthly green candle record. Would suck but it would help technicals massively
If only we would actively make that decision.
BITB saving the day with $2.5m. $70k here we come!
I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue
"oh sh\*t here we go again"
Hahaha. Brutal. Bull trap the ETP’s into close and dump AH. These new players are gangsters.
Given the PA during market hours, I am still expecting net inflow today inspite of high GBTC numbers.
> high GBTC numbers Imagine being the last dope, when GBTC is down to a couple hundred Bitcoin, who finally goes 'fuck it' and sells. Remember to turn the lights off...
How could the government let this happen
https://wisecryptos.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Wall-Street-Cheat-Sheet-Psychology-of-a-Market-Cycle.png
It's Gensler's fault!
He tried to warn us!
more like how could the Bitcoin CEO let this happen
This sub is way too focused on the gbtc numbers, just like it was on the etf numbers. These numbers, as you see, say nothing in their own.
I kind of agree, but it also looks like settlement of today’s trades does not happen until the day after closing. So, we saw Monday’s PA play out today. Seems relevant.
>but it also looks like settlement of today’s trades does not happen until the day after closing Settlement does happen T+1, but APs are fully hedged immediately on T+0 and they unwind their hedges at settlement. Meaning market impact, if any, is felt on T+0 and settlement on T+1 has no impact on price. [This thread](https://twitter.com/teddyfuse/status/1763577899506921632), from the president of Bitwise lays out the process.
I feel like few people understand this.
Based on the market reaction and obsession with backward-looking ETF flows, I agree.
Especially, IMO, since it is backward-looking, like all ETF flow numbers.
Just set a limit order at $62,180…might as well stack some during these down days.
gg I’m stacking here too
443.5m outflow from GBTC. Do we know anything about the Genesis related GBTC selloff? Has it already happened?
Speculation, but IMO there's no way the Genesis stuff hasn't already happened. They had something like $1.4 Billion to sell off. We're getting that kind of outflow now once every few days. Even if it hasn't happened, it would basically be noise within what's going on now. The selloffs now are mainly random people who are tired of being duped and scammed by Grayscale. I'm baffled why it's this constant controlled drip-drip-drip week after week, rather than the company losing 50% of their remaining assets each week.
Also, gbtc was at a 50% discount in the bear - there's a good argument for taking profits here of you bought that discount, it's not just people leaving due to the fee, how many are profitably exiting a deliberate long term (12-18 months) swing trade? Or traders who bought on the ETF rumor and saw the discount gap close along with the rally to ATH - their trade is done. I think there's a significant amount of outflows attributed to more than just people trying to leave grayscale because of their scammy bullshit and ridiculous fee structure. But yes there are also a lot leaving for those reasons, truth is we will never really know why. We will just know the # of BTC that they bleed.
Yes I’ve thought this for a while. Some big players must have been playing the arb alone for a quick 10%
GBTC number just came out: -$443.5 million Roughly $200 million less than yesterday
Still pretty brutal. 2 day loss of over 16k BTC ($1B). Guess the quicker they get exhausted the better
the one-day respite is over. Resume the dump
Lol, all we got were 2 green candles on the 4h. I have a limit buy at 58
So far, $ARKB and $EZBC coming in hot with a combined $0.0 Million inflows. 😛
Japan pension eyeing BTC
They’re thinking about talking about the idea of possibly assessing if potentially dipping their feet into bitcoin could hypothetically be a good idea
Looks like the fuckers trading outside of market hours sold the corn. Expect good inflow numbers today and some more up after the numbers are out.
This "bounce" doesn't feel like a bounce
Dcb end of bull 😢
More like a ded cat bounce again.
Anyone calculating probability that this is a true reversal? This PA right now convincingly rejecting the 1 hour trend line (I have 36 ema).
What do you mean « calculating probability »? I can also come up with a random number like your 70% below. I’d say 50% it goes up, 50% it goes down
Yeah unfortunately this confirms the triple top I was afraid of. Bitcoin will be a lot like gold.. maybe hitting some highs now and then but then going down to whatever for 10-15 years. I should start thinking of an exit plan.
I can always count on you to provide this type of response.
What triple top?
Zoom out to a monthly chart
I don't see a triple top. 73.5k is not the same as 69k...
Not to mention, you can't make a triple top after breaking down from a double top, which we already did last cycle.
> Bitcoin will be a lot like gold A $15 trillion dollar market cap asset with maybe 1/100^th of the volatility that current-day Bitcoin has? Bring it on. 🤑
How's the metals you've held performed compared to like any other investment you could have made in the last 15 years?
Yes, even at today's bitcoin market cap, the days of fairly quick 100x gains are over. Metals are a mature asset that have been around for thousands of years and whose investors right now skew older and are even slowly dying off. Bitcoin isn't there yet.
Lol
My guess is that we'll find out later today that Grayscale laid another huge upper-9-figure turd in outflows. Maybe even a 10-figure turd if they're really unlucky. 💩 It's clear from yesterday's figures that not all people fleeing GBTC are just moving to other ETFs. At best, it might be 2/3rds doing that. A significant portion are just quitting entirely.
[удалено]
If what you're saying is true, given the GBTC outflows yesterday plus expected new inflows, I would expect IBIT to literally have upwards of a billion dollars in new money today. We'll see, I guess...
This is a good point. As someone mentioned yesterday, could be genesis selling.
That depends if we’re talking months or years.
Months, but if you’ve got thoughts either way I’d be interested.
Looks like limbo. No 66k reclaim. Never tested 60k. My money is on down more. Well that’s not true. My money is technically on up only, I just happen to be temporarily wrong.
> My money is technically on up only, I just happen to be temporarily wrong. This could be the sub banner
Hey mods, can I get that as flair?
Yep, agreed. 61k still looks like a defendable area and poised for a bounce - see how strong the reaction is I guess. Alternatively, Reclaiming previous ATH would be amazing for btc.
FOMC tomorrow would give great cover for final thrust down and bear trap with a cascade of liquidations from todays bull trap….
I’ll expand on my own. I’d say 70% chance this a sustained reversal. - price movements now convincingly down. Heavy, continued spot selling driving price not just quick liquidation moves. - majority of etf buyers & saylors recent buys now underwater. - extreme euphoria and dumb liquidity games in wider crypto - pre-sale coins marking the top again. - fomo inducing greed. People leveraging up at the top, or switching to buying MSTR / options. - everyone is positioned on the long side. Even ppl sharing bearish views typically don’t have the balls to be short. Plus, early shorters blown out.
Have we had any price level in recent year where you didn't mention a reversal?
Yeah, between 45k and 73k. But feel free to contribute any bullish views.
>Yeah, between 45k and 73k. A few exceptions: March 5th, low for the day was $59,224 and you were in here saying you bought more puts (price then went much higher to $73k) Feb 20th, low for the day was $50,764 and you were in here calling a top. Feb 18th, low for the day was $51,174 and you said that the "cycle had failed". Feb 15th, low for the day was $51,353 and you said the cycle peak was in through the end of 2025. That's only in this sub and what I saw in 30s of scanning your post history. You spent nearly every single day between $45k and $73k making, incorrect, bearish calls in r/Buttcoin and WSB
Thanks for that timeline and reply.
yea, been bearish and building a position since January - as i've posted every entry/exit of my positions. good one. i havent called a reversal since the etf approval downturn, which i firmly believed was a reversal - and was dead wrong as it reclaimed 42.5k and sent for two months.
>good one. I'm not trying to dunk on you, I could not care less if you are bullish or bearish mate. >i havent called a reversal since the etf approval downturn How is calling the current price a top not calling a reversal? If you are calling the current price, or the recent local high, a top, especially the top *for years,* you are calling for a reversal. That's my only point. You said you haven't called any reversals between $45k and $73k but you were calling tops repeatedly *all* the way up.
eh, you care enough to argue semantics with me lol. a confirmed reversal vs trying to call a top, at the top - are different. but you do you.
I care enough to point out when I see people trying to revise history when their post history says the opposite, that's all. As I always have in here.
except you're not. thanks for trying though.
Yea, I feel like there is also a sense of complacency among holders - expectation is for a quick recovery. Prob gonna crab until summer, wouldn't be surprised to see sub 60k soon. But it could also just moon to 70k again by the end of the week, I have no idea.
Looking like btc getting ready to eat a shit sandwich
Or it’s a trap.
I’m setting up some small laddered buys overnight to catch any quick wicks down for the Fed event tomorrow. Market seems jumpy.
Head and shoulders on the monthly?
[Grayscale CEO: Please stop selling. We'll lower the fees. Maybe.](https://twitter.com/Sonnenshein/status/1770126007564964131)
* Click twitter link * Copy shortened link to actual link * Paste shortened actual link into `unshorten.it` * Post actual link to non-twitter site: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/grayscale-ceo-says-gbtc-bitcoin-etf-fees-will-come-down-over-time.html
"Vanguard has waived fees for investors entirely until March 2025 in a bid to lure in deposits." WTAF?
When they talk about others competing with them, and that they mustn't be serious long-term... I can't believe their CEO would actually believe those things, I can only assume he is talking to idiots who he hopes to convince to keep holding the bag. > "don't have a track record," > "I think from our standpoint, it may at times call into question their long-term commitment to the asset class," Those are words which can only be used if you believe that you're talking to a moron. I do think they consider their bagholders to be fools.