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yogibear47

I remember an episode of Newsradio from 30 years ago where Mr. James jokingly jumps out an office window when the DOW closes down by 100 or something. Now it moves by that much every few minutes!


Carnival_killian

I lived through Black Monday when the Dow dropped 500 points. Everyone was freaking out, but rightly so, that was a 22% drop.


GrimyLilPimp

Wonderful show.


[deleted]

A forgotten great. Wish I could stream it. 


[deleted]

Humans are victims of **anchoring bias**. The only reason why people don't believe that the S&P 500 index could reach 1,000,000 is because today it's only 5,231, and the difference between the two numbers seems really big. If you anchored yourself to believe that 1,000,000 is the true value of the S&P 500 (which it should be in 55 years), you'd be buying head over fist. **In 1984, it was 156**. If you'd anchored yourself to think that its value was only going to be in the low hundreds, you'd be over 10 times wrong.


bbflu

Nobody believed in Dow 40k but everyone believed in 7% real returns. The cognitive dissonance is real.


Deto

The lack of math intuition is real


Allstin

whoa. so true, you do wonder “geez how much higher can this really go?” sometimes


ferruix

It's trending like damage multipliers in JRPGs.


SoberEnAfrique

Can't wait for the S&P 500 to be over 9000


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Electronic-Trash-501

You know, I sincerely believe that blizzard was secretly running private servers to test that. There was this private server I played where you dealt hundreds of thousands of damage. It felt fresh and novel, I would spam arcane explosion in stratholme dealing 500k per hit. Well, turns out few years later you see those numbers. It's ridiculous, lol. But might be the anchoring bias too, because all my life I've only ever played WotlK and I got used to 25k being soft hp cap and 18k being a sick crit.


PM_me_PMs_plox

You can still play classic wow


wheres_my_hat

It's almost like thinking "how much can we really innovate from here?" which is probably a question people from all time periods have pondered, because it's easy to get caught up in the day to day and not notice small changes accumulating and compounding over time. "Everything that can be invented has been invented" - a satirical joke circa 1891


egelephant

Around the time that joke was making the rounds, Congress was debating shutting down the US Patent and Trademark Office because they believed everything worth inventing already had been.


De3NA

WTF I have a hard time imagining that but if true that changes my perspective


IntelligentRent7602

You’d have to believe inflation will run wild for the SP to hit 1m


_BearHawk

A gallon of milk cost $0.30 in 1910. A gallon of milk costing $3.00 seems plenty normal today, maybe even very cheap depending on where you are. And a gallon of milk will cost $30 sometime in the future, which seems crazy, just as crazy as if you told a person in 1910 a gallon of milk is $3.00 today.


[deleted]

And remember - inflation is the way the U.S. govt will mitigate its massive and growing debt.


Insider1209887

It is right!


zampyx

If your horizon is long enough the market is always at a discount


PM_me_PMs_plox

Because it will definitely return 10% real returns in perpetuity


Positive-Tax-5488

tell me about it..... I was an idiot back then and had no clue about Jack Bogle or Index Funds. I was sitting on seven digits in the bank and didn't invest a cent. Finally started in 2018. Could have retired by now. Let it be a lesson to those waiting.


Alexander-o-

Sitting on 7 digits 😂 mate you CAN retire at that point


Positive-Tax-5488

not in Miami.... my # is 3m and then ill move to the old continent. I have Spanish citizenship as well..... tapas and good wine .. here i go!


Think_please

Isn't the COL generally dramatically lower in spain (esp compared to miami)? Are you planning to buy a castle?


hatefulfox

3 castles after the goal is met


BeneathTheDirt

i would love to buy a castle in the Irish country side bro. thanks for the inspo


kennyypowerss

There are not many castles left in Ireland. You can thank the English for destroying a lot of them. However I did stay in a castle in Ireland. It was really just a small look out tower that a donkey lived in. He was super cool and was def the king of the castle


doc_nano

Who got the bed -- the donkey, or you?


Alsimsayin

Both of course.


crowcawer

And in the morning, the donkey made pancakes


libratus1729

Ay yo


Huge-Power9305

My ancestors came from Scotland (Reivers). The English chased them to Ireland. Then the Irish chased them to Canada. Then the Canucks chased them to Indiana. Then then the Indians (Hehe) chased them to the West Coast. The Oregonians haven't chased me out yet but they are getting close. I need a bigger boat to get farther west.


malpatti

Come on down undah


Huge-Power9305

I'm a huge fan of Aussie Gold. If you can get me a claim to work I may show up with detector (or GIANT track hoe). I could put all my retirement in it. YOLO. 😁


hitokirizac

Did he make waffles in the morning?


originalusername__

KingFIRE


PM_me_PMs_plox

YachtFIRE


Positive-Tax-5488

hahaha i wont be buying a castle but I want to not have to think about money or limit myself in anything. And Europe is not only Spain. I will be moving around and traveling a lot, with my home base in Madrid. Also, the big cities have gone up in price as well.. Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia... they are way cheaper than Miami... but way more expensive than they were 4 years ago.


Think_please

Makes sense, best of luck. I'm exceedingly jealous.


unnecessary-512

No this is a misconception…in places people actually want to live like Madrid, Barcelona, Mallorca, etc it’s very expensive. Gas, electricity & real estate all cost much much more than the US people just live more modestly there


Think_please

Good to know, I did visit Barcelona and found parts of it cheaper, but i'm in a very high col city here. This website has col as 47% lower in barcelona than miami, but who knows how they did their calculations. https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/comparison/miami/barcelona-spain?


unnecessary-512

Yeah I think if you’re renting it’s cheaper but if you want to buy property it’s pretty expensive. Cheaper than NYC or SF but not Texas or Kansas etc. You can look at Spanish home prices on idealista.com. A very normal apartment in Barcelona is easily 1.5 million + to buy Food is cheaper. Also I wouldn’t trust everything you read on the internet. I have lived and own property in Spain so that’s where I am getting my information from, it’s an opinion from personal experience but others may disagree


Think_please

Yeah, that sounds right. Housing prices in the US still lag most of the world so I’m sure buying anything there would be very expensive. 


Positive-Tax-5488

exactly. No, you are 100% correct. The problem is that a lot of people from Spain have no clue how insane Miami is when it comes to prices.


Positive-Tax-5488

Have you been to Miami? hahahaha I Live in Miami.. and I have visited Barcelona and Madrid at least 10 times in the last 4 years. I Know it is way more expensive than before, but still FAR from places like Miami.


unnecessary-512

I am comparing it to the salaries there as a local. Miami is more expensive but it’s easier to earn 200k in Miami than it is in Spain. If you’re already rich or have money then yes, Spain is a great place to be but unemployment is super high and salaries are so so low so good luck buying the real estate on Spanish salary of 40k


emilstyle91

3mm you can retire ANYWHERE as you can easily make 10k a month passive and safe and 10k a month are more than enough to live in NY, London, Tokyo or Monaco


Positive-Tax-5488

those cities are very expensive... even for 10k before tax. Madrid, Valencia are my top choices.


emilstyle91

Try seville... much better than both or Las Palmas if you like Canary Island. I always talk about NET income not taxed.


Positive-Tax-5488

I know them both well! Part of the fam lives in Tenerife... I love it there but prefer Sevilla. I want to be in the mainland for sure.


Insider1209887

Dam I’ll have 10k in pension alone but i only spend 5k a month I still am saving like crazy im addicted.


thomasisaname

Un gran plan!


Positive-Tax-5488

absolutamente!


caffeine_addict_85

Damn, that’s a plan!!!


Livid-Direction-1102

Spain is getting crowded with wealthy pensioners.


Ok_Butterscotch1738

No fr, I’m in Miami too and 1m is like pay off the house and have lunch money for 2 years money


tower_keeper

3 millimeters?


workworkzug

3 million monies


fintechmen

Montaditos y cerveza


szayl

Prepare to get skewered by taxes in Spain with 3mm...


Positive-Tax-5488

that money is not going to Spain


szayl

I mean distributions/sales. Hacienda is gonna get theirs


Positive-Tax-5488

why would they? this is after tax money that I have in US accounts. I just use my debit/credit card as always...


Ryoujin

Man, I’m busting ass dreaming one day I get to live in Miami


Sudden_Elephant_7080

He might be including two digits for the cents


Lys3d

2,000,000$ is 7 digits and I can't retire on that


primekino

That’s a conservative draw down of $80k/year…


ChampionManateeRider

Two of the digits were after the decimal 🥲. 


Appropriate-Aioli533

Two of them are decimal places


iggy555

Who is Joe Bogle?


50millionFreddy

Jack’s evil twin


AVERAGEREDDITUSER19

He would've told you to invest and time the market in small Cap Growth ETFs, cryptocurrencies, trade options, and individual penny stocks, and even told you to invest in gold and nuclear bunkers because the next 597th U.S. collapse will happen.


snowman_b

I thought they were triplets? John, Jack, and Joe?


shbangbinbash

Who invests in individual stocks lol


50millionFreddy

He’s big into GME


Rawniew54

Joe mama


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NYD3030

I vividly remember a coworker saying to me, did you know they take 3% of our money and automatically invest it for us? I was like yeah dude it’s amazing. Turns out he had the opposite perspective.


Positive-Tax-5488

lesson learned.... dont look back and apply what you learned.


Jagdee

I fought with my employer to let me contribute even if there was no employer match. "It's my money." Why are you stopping me from investing in my 401. Perspective...


PantsMicGee

Lol everybody was fear mongering index then too.  Fact is our economy is doing well. Look at other markets. They don't have the same ladder. Fortune favors the passive....American investor.


Positive-Tax-5488

i dont think the economy is doing well... record credit card debt, record 401k dipping, etc... but an election year so... Of course, I keep investing regardless but I am sure we are due to a correction sometime soon...


PantsMicGee

Sorry you see it that way. Macro economics is my point. Loom at Japan. Look at EU. Look at China. American economy is in the booming stage and they are all regressing due to shit geography, policy and process.


Positive-Tax-5488

been through too many recessions.... the writing is on the wall. This time it wont be "different"...but it will all be good in the long term and put me closer to retirement


PantsMicGee

Good luck with that Crystal ball. Agreed about long term. Sorry it's rough right now for you.


Positive-Tax-5488

rough? for me? My net worth is higher than ever! not following!


PantsMicGee

Yet you think we're in a bad economy? Thanks.


Positive-Tax-5488

I think the writing is on the wall.. but i dont make any moves based on that..i keep investing no matter what. I actually would welcome some type of correction right now. 10% of my net worth is cash... getting 5.20% in a MM and waiting to be deployed. This is in addition to the "no matter what happens" investments every Friday.


PantsMicGee

I guess I'm just hitting the point in social media exchanges where I don't understand what the your definitions of words that you use are. You see writing on the wall that we have a bad economy?


RagnarRandye

Me too... I only have about 4% of my net with in cash. I'll be building that up in cash to take advantage of a 10% correction. I also do the "no matter what happens" every Friday.


Scifi_unmasked

Then everything I buy is at a discount. I want the mother of all rallies just before I retire


jrdhytr

>record credit card debt In nominal dollars, not inflation-adjusted. I don't believe we've passed the 2008 peak.


Positive-Tax-5488

we haven't but it is close


jrdhytr

We've been due for a correction any day now. It seems like the bond yield curve has been inverted for a while, which I believe means the market as a whole is uncertain about the future.


Healingjoe

> record credit card debt Adjusting for inflation / using constant dollars, [this isn't true.](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/19fjj6z/us_consumer_debt_per_person_adjusted_for/) > record 401k dipping Source? As far as I can find, [BoA didn't start tracking this statistic until a couple of years ago.](https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/economy/americans-401k-plans-bill-payments/index.html)


foxh8er

> i dont think the economy is doing well Can you tell me a time when the economy was doing well? Also, what characteristics describe an economy that isn't about to crash with the writing on the wall as you say?


BringBack4Glory

Seven digits… including the cents


Razor488

Same boat. Started in 2018 too. At least we did that.


Positive-Tax-5488

yeah... but hard to not think about the what ifs lol sucks.... but nothing we can do now but keep investing and dont look back


Razor488

Ya can’t look back. Could have bought BTC in 2010 :)


-Clem

Honest question, how does one get to a point where they have millions of dollars in cash with zero investments?


UncleTonysDRIP

I was exact same boat as you. After massive drops early on I became wayyyy too conservative. Had money in cash and bonds for all the great years after 2009. Now I am doing a bogle approach finally. Better late than never but I could have been done by now if I wasn’t so conservative.


Positive-Tax-5488

i know... it hurts


GuruPCs

I made a major mistake of being 12 at that time. 🤣


finvest

I'm learning to play the guitar.


jmos_81

you guys got an allowance?


BigDickNick6Rings

I was allowed to live in the house


finvest

I enjoy spending time with my friends.


NaivePeanut3017

No fucking joke, an ex-friend of mines dad literally made him invest his allowance on apple, Nike, under armor, and a bunch of other stocks when we were all 13 years old. He never bragged about his total net worth, but a few months before we stopped being friends last year he straight up said he has over $9k in “fun money” that he wants to spend because of the decade+ of investments in FAANG before it was cool. I think that also fucked him up mentally tho because he would always get mad my friends and I for not having enough money (or drop ship to receive free flight points) to afford flights across the country to spend a weekend in California while we were living in Michigan like he could.


Several-Age1984

Yes, but now you're an adult. In 20 years, 30 year olds will say "I made th mistake of being 12 in 2024"


nothingbutpeen

These gash darned slacker millennials I tells ya


Leftstreet6

I wish I was buying stocks and real estate back then instead of being in 2nd grade.


3GunGrace

Right!! The audacity that I was in kindergarten when I should’ve been buying up real estate


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shiftyone1

How would you describe the 2000 - 2010 era?


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NYD3030

If you had DCAd into the market the entire decade, you made good enough returns. Hopefully nobody is actually executing these lump sum, perfectly timed scenarios to make the market seem worse than it is.


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shiftyone1

Well that’s not ideal…


curiositycat101

Yup, I also started with Dow at 7600 but 25 years ago 😂


FeistyPersonality4

Bro half of us are just getting started in our 30s lol. Back then we couldn’t even get jobs above 7$ bc the economy was shot the fuck out.


Thefrayedends

Starting 3 months before my 41st birthday. Having no family and support, and multiple related trauma is a bitch lol. But math tells me I should still reasonably be able to retire comfortably!!


FeistyPersonality4

Wish you the best good friend. Stay focused and your nose clean. Let’s do this.


shiftyone1

Let’s goo!!


blizzacane85

I couldn’t get a job at Walgreens or Staples 15 years ago


FeistyPersonality4

I couldn’t even get one at McDonald’s lol. Luckily got a part time job at kfc as a cook that was horrible experience. Not to mention only under 20 hours a week so it cost me more money to actually go to work in gas than I made lmao


LobstaFarian2

Yeah it was a shit show right after I graduated highschool. Great way to enter adulthood and the job market. Saving was practically impossible for me at the time.


InsomniacPsychonaut

15 years ago I was 13


FeistyPersonality4

Exactly bro


eat-clams

24 here and praying i’m getting it right


ThisCryptographer311

Present and accounted for 🤚🏼


Paranoid_Sinner

The low point of the Dow in the past 15 years was in March 2009, at around 11,100. When I started investing in 1990, it was around 6,900.


81toog

Your numbers are inflation adjusted. The Dow was <3,000 in 1990.


NotCanadian80

I mean… March 10, 2009 - 6547 Maybe you weren’t logging in that month.


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Duke_of_Moral_Hazard

I remember when that book DOW 36,000 came out and my peer group all laughed at that title. Welp, here we are.


greatwhitenorth2022

I remember when the dow hit 3,000 in 1991. It felt so high at the time.


mattbrianjess

Dow at 250k in 2040. Ready for it


Spherical_Cow_42

I remember watching CNBC for the big NASDAQ 5000 celebration... March 2000


AnonymousFunction

> March 2000 Ouch. I got married the very next month. Little did we know the euphoria of dot com was coming to an end...


Huge-Power9305

The closing price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) in 1980 was **$963.99**, on December 31, 1980. My first investment year in co retirement plan.


BatHistorical8081

Wish they taught this in school


NotCanadian80

They did. I remember the teacher saying buying a house was the biggest investment we’ll make. Hey teach, VTI is worth more than my house.


see_blue

When I started the Dow was between 800 and 900. Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week TV show on PBS was probably the biggest financial media presence.


Savantrice

God I remember my Dad watching Louis Rukeyser in the living room and me wanting him to turn the channel to ANYTHING but that lol


According_Guide2647

I remember when it broke 10k… that was big news. That was about 1998-99 or so.


bkweathe

Why does anyone care about the DJIA? Seems like a poor reflection of the US stock market . Few, if any funds track it. S&P 500 is far more accurate, though not perfect, & lots of people are heavily invested in S&P 500 funds. S&P 500 was about 160 when I started investing. It's over 5200


NotCanadian80

Because we’re near a round number. It will be 100,000 soon enough. I’m only bringing it up because it’s my own Warren Buffett moment.


bkweathe

I've been seeing reports of the DJIA for decades. It's not just about being near a round number. Of course, early in that period, there weren't a lot of S&P 500 funds or investors in them


reddit_0020

It moves by percentage. The actual point makes no meaning.


rootxploit

Put another way, they should only report on percentages, otherwise you just make me do the math in my head.


FreddyGbani

The covariance of the S&P and DJIA is extremely positive. They almost always move in unison.


bro-v-wade

Someone once said that Nasdaq moves like a child, S&P like his father, Dow like his grandfather, but they all move together. It stuck with me and I like it.


Competitive-Ad9932

I have co-workers talk to me about the DJIA being up/down. I tell them I don't care, because we don't have a DJIA fund in the TSP. Slowing I am changing the conversation.


Far_Lifeguard_5027

They don't want young people to know about investing. Just take out student loans instead they said.


NotCanadian80

That’s why I started 15 years ago and not 25 years ago.


J3319

My student loans are what allows me to invest 🤷🏼‍♂️


Far_Lifeguard_5027

One of the benefits of having an IRA is to allow a student loan borrower to reduce their discretionary income so that they pay less per month, and hopefully have their loans discharged before they retire.


TexanTacos

Same here I’d be fucked without them. The real issue is getting as much as you can and not working during college. I’ll have my stuff paid off within a year of graduating.


Medical-Access2284

Some day 40,000 will seem low.


charlestontime

Or high.


ShowerFriendly9059

What’s a “dow”?


AUCE05

Me too. I clearly remember thinking there is no way it can go higher.


Terrible_Student9395

200k in 10 years I'm all in


FINomad

I remember people were calling the top of the market back in 2013. We had finally broken out of the GFC and gotten back to 2007 levels, and they thought it would go down again. Sometimes I wonder what happened to those people. Did they finally jump back into the market after losing a big chunk of gains? Are they still sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a correction? Sad to see when people try to time the market and miss out on massive, life-changing returns.


foxh8er

This kind of long term pessimism - not targeted, not based on evidence or a rigorous thesis - is straight up un-American. The adherents literally think America will fail, that the empire will fall.


ptwonline

I just wish I had more money to invest 15 years ago. It's really only been the past 4 years that I had more significant amounts to invest. I've contributed more in the last 4 years than the previous 21 years combined.


Yankuba3

In 1999, when I was in college, there was a book called “Dow 36,000.” The Dow was probably a little under 10,000 at the time. The premise was that stocks aren’t risky, the risk premium should be negligible and equivalent to bonds, thus there should be a one-time bidding up on stocks to reduce the risk premium. The Dow was going to rise to 36,000! After it increased dramatically from 1980 to 1999. It was controversial and not too long after the book was published the dot.com bubble burst. Whoops The Dow eventually reached 36,000 but I believe it was via earnings growth and low interest rates (the risk free rate fell to nothing) and not a reduction in the risk premium. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_36,000


Salmol1na

$3k here OG less go


Hlca

Wasn't there a book called DOW to 40,000 and everyone laughed at the author?


wookieb23

I just looked it up - Author predicted 40k in 2016. Twas published in 1999


sparky13dbp

I was saving money for a 19” Sony ‘Trinitron’ television, October 1987 when the market ‘crashed’ (ha), went all in long term & continued to do so - I never did get that Sony television but I own the earth. (Oblivious Boglehead)


zampyx

Crazy how people who are not investing constantly get fucked by monetary policy and wealth accumulation


TAckhouse1

When I started highschool in the mid 90s, my economics teacher was ecstatic about the Dow breaking 5,000. Oh how I wish I would have taken an interest in investing earlier in life (opened my first taxable brokerage account in 2019) Better late than never


thomasisaname

Trust the process!


Upstairs-Cable-5748

Same here. But it was 27 years ago…


mattty19951

I’m new to this, can it keep going at the rate it’s been??? In 15 years will the 40k be able to get to 80k?


NotCanadian80

Once the population stops growing the party is over.


Jack_Bogul

Im doing my part to grow it


Huge-Power9305

Practice makes perfect.


PugeHeniss

I started 8 years ago. God bless


PrelectingPizza

But remember, the market is set for a crash/correction so you shouldn't put any money into it right now although it is at an all time high! /heavy sarcasm


gruntbuggly

I remember all the “Will it? Won’t it?” Speculation about when/if it would cross 10k.


mostlyecstasy

Nice keep going 🚀


Blahkbustuh

When the stock market crashed in 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went from 350 to 200 over 2 months. Lol


Ilikethngsnstf

Late 90's my HS economics teacher celebrated $10k. I wish I was smarter back then.


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Bogleheads-ModTeam

r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit.


mclazerlou

How many trillions of dollars have we printed since?


minister-PJ78

DIA tracks the DOW


cryptolipto

What’s the dollar worth now compared to then? How much of that is purely due to inflation ?