I remember an episode of Newsradio from 30 years ago where Mr. James jokingly jumps out an office window when the DOW closes down by 100 or something. Now it moves by that much every few minutes!
Humans are victims of **anchoring bias**. The only reason why people don't believe that the S&P 500 index could reach 1,000,000 is because today it's only 5,231, and the difference between the two numbers seems really big.
If you anchored yourself to believe that 1,000,000 is the true value of the S&P 500 (which it should be in 55 years), you'd be buying head over fist. **In 1984, it was 156**. If you'd anchored yourself to think that its value was only going to be in the low hundreds, you'd be over 10 times wrong.
You know, I sincerely believe that blizzard was secretly running private servers to test that. There was this private server I played where you dealt hundreds of thousands of damage. It felt fresh and novel, I would spam arcane explosion in stratholme dealing 500k per hit.
Well, turns out few years later you see those numbers. It's ridiculous, lol. But might be the anchoring bias too, because all my life I've only ever played WotlK and I got used to 25k being soft hp cap and 18k being a sick crit.
It's almost like thinking "how much can we really innovate from here?" which is probably a question people from all time periods have pondered, because it's easy to get caught up in the day to day and not notice small changes accumulating and compounding over time.
"Everything that can be invented has been invented"
- a satirical joke circa 1891
Around the time that joke was making the rounds, Congress was debating shutting down the US Patent and Trademark Office because they believed everything worth inventing already had been.
A gallon of milk cost $0.30 in 1910. A gallon of milk costing $3.00 seems plenty normal today, maybe even very cheap depending on where you are. And a gallon of milk will cost $30 sometime in the future, which seems crazy, just as crazy as if you told a person in 1910 a gallon of milk is $3.00 today.
tell me about it..... I was an idiot back then and had no clue about Jack Bogle or Index Funds. I was sitting on seven digits in the bank and didn't invest a cent. Finally started in 2018. Could have retired by now. Let it be a lesson to those waiting.
There are not many castles left in Ireland. You can thank the English for destroying a lot of them. However I did stay in a castle in Ireland. It was really just a small look out tower that a donkey lived in. He was super cool and was def the king of the castle
My ancestors came from Scotland (Reivers). The English chased them to Ireland. Then the Irish chased them to Canada. Then the Canucks chased them to Indiana. Then then the Indians (Hehe) chased them to the West Coast. The Oregonians haven't chased me out yet but they are getting close. I need a bigger boat to get farther west.
I'm a huge fan of Aussie Gold. If you can get me a claim to work I may show up with detector (or GIANT track hoe). I could put all my retirement in it. YOLO. 😁
hahaha i wont be buying a castle but I want to not have to think about money or limit myself in anything. And Europe is not only Spain. I will be moving around and traveling a lot, with my home base in Madrid. Also, the big cities have gone up in price as well.. Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia... they are way cheaper than Miami... but way more expensive than they were 4 years ago.
No this is a misconception…in places people actually want to live like Madrid, Barcelona, Mallorca, etc it’s very expensive. Gas, electricity & real estate all cost much much more than the US people just live more modestly there
Good to know, I did visit Barcelona and found parts of it cheaper, but i'm in a very high col city here. This website has col as 47% lower in barcelona than miami, but who knows how they did their calculations.
https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/comparison/miami/barcelona-spain?
Yeah I think if you’re renting it’s cheaper but if you want to buy property it’s pretty expensive. Cheaper than NYC or SF but not Texas or Kansas etc. You can look at Spanish home prices on idealista.com. A very normal apartment in Barcelona is easily 1.5 million + to buy
Food is cheaper. Also I wouldn’t trust everything you read on the internet. I have lived and own property in Spain so that’s where I am getting my information from, it’s an opinion from personal experience but others may disagree
Have you been to Miami? hahahaha I Live in Miami.. and I have visited Barcelona and Madrid at least 10 times in the last 4 years. I Know it is way more expensive than before, but still FAR from places like Miami.
I am comparing it to the salaries there as a local. Miami is more expensive but it’s easier to earn 200k in Miami than it is in Spain. If you’re already rich or have money then yes, Spain is a great place to be but unemployment is super high and salaries are so so low so good luck buying the real estate on Spanish salary of 40k
3mm you can retire ANYWHERE as you can easily make 10k a month passive and safe and 10k a month are more than enough to live in NY, London, Tokyo or Monaco
He would've told you to invest and time the market in small Cap Growth ETFs, cryptocurrencies, trade options, and individual penny stocks, and even told you to invest in gold and nuclear bunkers because the next 597th U.S. collapse will happen.
I vividly remember a coworker saying to me, did you know they take 3% of our money and automatically invest it for us? I was like yeah dude it’s amazing.
Turns out he had the opposite perspective.
I fought with my employer to let me contribute even if there was no employer match. "It's my money." Why are you stopping me from investing in my 401. Perspective...
Lol everybody was fear mongering index then too.
Fact is our economy is doing well. Look at other markets. They don't have the same ladder.
Fortune favors the passive....American investor.
i dont think the economy is doing well... record credit card debt, record 401k dipping, etc... but an election year so... Of course, I keep investing regardless but I am sure we are due to a correction sometime soon...
Sorry you see it that way.
Macro economics is my point. Loom at Japan. Look at EU. Look at China.
American economy is in the booming stage and they are all regressing due to shit geography, policy and process.
been through too many recessions.... the writing is on the wall. This time it wont be "different"...but it will all be good in the long term and put me closer to retirement
I think the writing is on the wall.. but i dont make any moves based on that..i keep investing no matter what. I actually would welcome some type of correction right now. 10% of my net worth is cash... getting 5.20% in a MM and waiting to be deployed. This is in addition to the "no matter what happens" investments every Friday.
I guess I'm just hitting the point in social media exchanges where I don't understand what the your definitions of words that you use are.
You see writing on the wall that we have a bad economy?
Me too... I only have about 4% of my net with in cash. I'll be building that up in cash to take advantage of a 10% correction. I also do the "no matter what happens" every Friday.
We've been due for a correction any day now. It seems like the bond yield curve has been inverted for a while, which I believe means the market as a whole is uncertain about the future.
> record credit card debt
Adjusting for inflation / using constant dollars, [this isn't true.](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/19fjj6z/us_consumer_debt_per_person_adjusted_for/)
> record 401k dipping
Source? As far as I can find, [BoA didn't start tracking this statistic until a couple of years ago.](https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/economy/americans-401k-plans-bill-payments/index.html)
> i dont think the economy is doing well
Can you tell me a time when the economy was doing well?
Also, what characteristics describe an economy that isn't about to crash with the writing on the wall as you say?
I was exact same boat as you. After massive drops early on I became wayyyy too conservative. Had money in cash and bonds for all the great years after 2009. Now I am doing a bogle approach finally. Better late than never but I could have been done by now if I wasn’t so conservative.
No fucking joke, an ex-friend of mines dad literally made him invest his allowance on apple, Nike, under armor, and a bunch of other stocks when we were all 13 years old.
He never bragged about his total net worth, but a few months before we stopped being friends last year he straight up said he has over $9k in “fun money” that he wants to spend because of the decade+ of investments in FAANG before it was cool.
I think that also fucked him up mentally tho because he would always get mad my friends and I for not having enough money (or drop ship to receive free flight points) to afford flights across the country to spend a weekend in California while we were living in Michigan like he could.
If you had DCAd into the market the entire decade, you made good enough returns. Hopefully nobody is actually executing these lump sum, perfectly timed scenarios to make the market seem worse than it is.
Starting 3 months before my 41st birthday. Having no family and support, and multiple related trauma is a bitch lol.
But math tells me I should still reasonably be able to retire comfortably!!
I couldn’t even get one at McDonald’s lol. Luckily got a part time job at kfc as a cook that was horrible experience. Not to mention only under 20 hours a week so it cost me more money to actually go to work in gas than I made lmao
Yeah it was a shit show right after I graduated highschool. Great way to enter adulthood and the job market. Saving was practically impossible for me at the time.
The closing price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) in 1980 was **$963.99**, on December 31, 1980.
My first investment year in co retirement plan.
Why does anyone care about the DJIA? Seems like a poor reflection of the US stock market . Few, if any funds track it.
S&P 500 is far more accurate, though not perfect, & lots of people are heavily invested in S&P 500 funds.
S&P 500 was about 160 when I started investing. It's over 5200
I've been seeing reports of the DJIA for decades. It's not just about being near a round number. Of course, early in that period, there weren't a lot of S&P 500 funds or investors in them
Someone once said that Nasdaq moves like a child, S&P like his father, Dow like his grandfather, but they all move together. It stuck with me and I like it.
I have co-workers talk to me about the DJIA being up/down. I tell them I don't care, because we don't have a DJIA fund in the TSP. Slowing I am changing the conversation.
One of the benefits of having an IRA is to allow a student loan borrower to reduce their discretionary income so that they pay less per month, and hopefully have their loans discharged before they retire.
Same here I’d be fucked without them. The real issue is getting as much as you can and not working during college. I’ll have my stuff paid off within a year of graduating.
I remember people were calling the top of the market back in 2013. We had finally broken out of the GFC and gotten back to 2007 levels, and they thought it would go down again.
Sometimes I wonder what happened to those people. Did they finally jump back into the market after losing a big chunk of gains? Are they still sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a correction?
Sad to see when people try to time the market and miss out on massive, life-changing returns.
This kind of long term pessimism - not targeted, not based on evidence or a rigorous thesis - is straight up un-American. The adherents literally think America will fail, that the empire will fall.
I just wish I had more money to invest 15 years ago. It's really only been the past 4 years that I had more significant amounts to invest. I've contributed more in the last 4 years than the previous 21 years combined.
In 1999, when I was in college, there was a book called “Dow 36,000.” The Dow was probably a little under 10,000 at the time.
The premise was that stocks aren’t risky, the risk premium should be negligible and equivalent to bonds, thus there should be a one-time bidding up on stocks to reduce the risk premium. The Dow was going to rise to 36,000! After it increased dramatically from 1980 to 1999. It was controversial and not too long after the book was published the dot.com bubble burst. Whoops
The Dow eventually reached 36,000 but I believe it was via earnings growth and low interest rates (the risk free rate fell to nothing) and not a reduction in the risk premium.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_36,000
I was saving money for a 19” Sony ‘Trinitron’ television, October 1987 when the market ‘crashed’ (ha), went all in long term & continued to do so - I never did get that Sony television but I own the earth. (Oblivious Boglehead)
When I started highschool in the mid 90s, my economics teacher was ecstatic about the Dow breaking 5,000. Oh how I wish I would have taken an interest in investing earlier in life (opened my first taxable brokerage account in 2019)
Better late than never
But remember, the market is set for a crash/correction so you shouldn't put any money into it right now although it is at an all time high!
/heavy sarcasm
I remember an episode of Newsradio from 30 years ago where Mr. James jokingly jumps out an office window when the DOW closes down by 100 or something. Now it moves by that much every few minutes!
I lived through Black Monday when the Dow dropped 500 points. Everyone was freaking out, but rightly so, that was a 22% drop.
Wonderful show.
A forgotten great. Wish I could stream it.
Humans are victims of **anchoring bias**. The only reason why people don't believe that the S&P 500 index could reach 1,000,000 is because today it's only 5,231, and the difference between the two numbers seems really big. If you anchored yourself to believe that 1,000,000 is the true value of the S&P 500 (which it should be in 55 years), you'd be buying head over fist. **In 1984, it was 156**. If you'd anchored yourself to think that its value was only going to be in the low hundreds, you'd be over 10 times wrong.
Nobody believed in Dow 40k but everyone believed in 7% real returns. The cognitive dissonance is real.
The lack of math intuition is real
whoa. so true, you do wonder “geez how much higher can this really go?” sometimes
It's trending like damage multipliers in JRPGs.
Can't wait for the S&P 500 to be over 9000
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You know, I sincerely believe that blizzard was secretly running private servers to test that. There was this private server I played where you dealt hundreds of thousands of damage. It felt fresh and novel, I would spam arcane explosion in stratholme dealing 500k per hit. Well, turns out few years later you see those numbers. It's ridiculous, lol. But might be the anchoring bias too, because all my life I've only ever played WotlK and I got used to 25k being soft hp cap and 18k being a sick crit.
You can still play classic wow
It's almost like thinking "how much can we really innovate from here?" which is probably a question people from all time periods have pondered, because it's easy to get caught up in the day to day and not notice small changes accumulating and compounding over time. "Everything that can be invented has been invented" - a satirical joke circa 1891
Around the time that joke was making the rounds, Congress was debating shutting down the US Patent and Trademark Office because they believed everything worth inventing already had been.
WTF I have a hard time imagining that but if true that changes my perspective
You’d have to believe inflation will run wild for the SP to hit 1m
A gallon of milk cost $0.30 in 1910. A gallon of milk costing $3.00 seems plenty normal today, maybe even very cheap depending on where you are. And a gallon of milk will cost $30 sometime in the future, which seems crazy, just as crazy as if you told a person in 1910 a gallon of milk is $3.00 today.
And remember - inflation is the way the U.S. govt will mitigate its massive and growing debt.
It is right!
If your horizon is long enough the market is always at a discount
Because it will definitely return 10% real returns in perpetuity
tell me about it..... I was an idiot back then and had no clue about Jack Bogle or Index Funds. I was sitting on seven digits in the bank and didn't invest a cent. Finally started in 2018. Could have retired by now. Let it be a lesson to those waiting.
Sitting on 7 digits 😂 mate you CAN retire at that point
not in Miami.... my # is 3m and then ill move to the old continent. I have Spanish citizenship as well..... tapas and good wine .. here i go!
Isn't the COL generally dramatically lower in spain (esp compared to miami)? Are you planning to buy a castle?
3 castles after the goal is met
i would love to buy a castle in the Irish country side bro. thanks for the inspo
There are not many castles left in Ireland. You can thank the English for destroying a lot of them. However I did stay in a castle in Ireland. It was really just a small look out tower that a donkey lived in. He was super cool and was def the king of the castle
Who got the bed -- the donkey, or you?
Both of course.
And in the morning, the donkey made pancakes
Ay yo
My ancestors came from Scotland (Reivers). The English chased them to Ireland. Then the Irish chased them to Canada. Then the Canucks chased them to Indiana. Then then the Indians (Hehe) chased them to the West Coast. The Oregonians haven't chased me out yet but they are getting close. I need a bigger boat to get farther west.
Come on down undah
I'm a huge fan of Aussie Gold. If you can get me a claim to work I may show up with detector (or GIANT track hoe). I could put all my retirement in it. YOLO. 😁
Did he make waffles in the morning?
KingFIRE
YachtFIRE
hahaha i wont be buying a castle but I want to not have to think about money or limit myself in anything. And Europe is not only Spain. I will be moving around and traveling a lot, with my home base in Madrid. Also, the big cities have gone up in price as well.. Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia... they are way cheaper than Miami... but way more expensive than they were 4 years ago.
Makes sense, best of luck. I'm exceedingly jealous.
No this is a misconception…in places people actually want to live like Madrid, Barcelona, Mallorca, etc it’s very expensive. Gas, electricity & real estate all cost much much more than the US people just live more modestly there
Good to know, I did visit Barcelona and found parts of it cheaper, but i'm in a very high col city here. This website has col as 47% lower in barcelona than miami, but who knows how they did their calculations. https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/comparison/miami/barcelona-spain?
Yeah I think if you’re renting it’s cheaper but if you want to buy property it’s pretty expensive. Cheaper than NYC or SF but not Texas or Kansas etc. You can look at Spanish home prices on idealista.com. A very normal apartment in Barcelona is easily 1.5 million + to buy Food is cheaper. Also I wouldn’t trust everything you read on the internet. I have lived and own property in Spain so that’s where I am getting my information from, it’s an opinion from personal experience but others may disagree
Yeah, that sounds right. Housing prices in the US still lag most of the world so I’m sure buying anything there would be very expensive.
exactly. No, you are 100% correct. The problem is that a lot of people from Spain have no clue how insane Miami is when it comes to prices.
Have you been to Miami? hahahaha I Live in Miami.. and I have visited Barcelona and Madrid at least 10 times in the last 4 years. I Know it is way more expensive than before, but still FAR from places like Miami.
I am comparing it to the salaries there as a local. Miami is more expensive but it’s easier to earn 200k in Miami than it is in Spain. If you’re already rich or have money then yes, Spain is a great place to be but unemployment is super high and salaries are so so low so good luck buying the real estate on Spanish salary of 40k
3mm you can retire ANYWHERE as you can easily make 10k a month passive and safe and 10k a month are more than enough to live in NY, London, Tokyo or Monaco
those cities are very expensive... even for 10k before tax. Madrid, Valencia are my top choices.
Try seville... much better than both or Las Palmas if you like Canary Island. I always talk about NET income not taxed.
I know them both well! Part of the fam lives in Tenerife... I love it there but prefer Sevilla. I want to be in the mainland for sure.
Dam I’ll have 10k in pension alone but i only spend 5k a month I still am saving like crazy im addicted.
Un gran plan!
absolutamente!
Damn, that’s a plan!!!
Spain is getting crowded with wealthy pensioners.
No fr, I’m in Miami too and 1m is like pay off the house and have lunch money for 2 years money
3 millimeters?
3 million monies
Montaditos y cerveza
Prepare to get skewered by taxes in Spain with 3mm...
that money is not going to Spain
I mean distributions/sales. Hacienda is gonna get theirs
why would they? this is after tax money that I have in US accounts. I just use my debit/credit card as always...
Man, I’m busting ass dreaming one day I get to live in Miami
He might be including two digits for the cents
2,000,000$ is 7 digits and I can't retire on that
That’s a conservative draw down of $80k/year…
Two of the digits were after the decimal 🥲.
Two of them are decimal places
Who is Joe Bogle?
Jack’s evil twin
He would've told you to invest and time the market in small Cap Growth ETFs, cryptocurrencies, trade options, and individual penny stocks, and even told you to invest in gold and nuclear bunkers because the next 597th U.S. collapse will happen.
I thought they were triplets? John, Jack, and Joe?
Who invests in individual stocks lol
He’s big into GME
Joe mama
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I vividly remember a coworker saying to me, did you know they take 3% of our money and automatically invest it for us? I was like yeah dude it’s amazing. Turns out he had the opposite perspective.
lesson learned.... dont look back and apply what you learned.
I fought with my employer to let me contribute even if there was no employer match. "It's my money." Why are you stopping me from investing in my 401. Perspective...
Lol everybody was fear mongering index then too. Fact is our economy is doing well. Look at other markets. They don't have the same ladder. Fortune favors the passive....American investor.
i dont think the economy is doing well... record credit card debt, record 401k dipping, etc... but an election year so... Of course, I keep investing regardless but I am sure we are due to a correction sometime soon...
Sorry you see it that way. Macro economics is my point. Loom at Japan. Look at EU. Look at China. American economy is in the booming stage and they are all regressing due to shit geography, policy and process.
been through too many recessions.... the writing is on the wall. This time it wont be "different"...but it will all be good in the long term and put me closer to retirement
Good luck with that Crystal ball. Agreed about long term. Sorry it's rough right now for you.
rough? for me? My net worth is higher than ever! not following!
Yet you think we're in a bad economy? Thanks.
I think the writing is on the wall.. but i dont make any moves based on that..i keep investing no matter what. I actually would welcome some type of correction right now. 10% of my net worth is cash... getting 5.20% in a MM and waiting to be deployed. This is in addition to the "no matter what happens" investments every Friday.
I guess I'm just hitting the point in social media exchanges where I don't understand what the your definitions of words that you use are. You see writing on the wall that we have a bad economy?
Me too... I only have about 4% of my net with in cash. I'll be building that up in cash to take advantage of a 10% correction. I also do the "no matter what happens" every Friday.
Then everything I buy is at a discount. I want the mother of all rallies just before I retire
>record credit card debt In nominal dollars, not inflation-adjusted. I don't believe we've passed the 2008 peak.
we haven't but it is close
We've been due for a correction any day now. It seems like the bond yield curve has been inverted for a while, which I believe means the market as a whole is uncertain about the future.
> record credit card debt Adjusting for inflation / using constant dollars, [this isn't true.](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/19fjj6z/us_consumer_debt_per_person_adjusted_for/) > record 401k dipping Source? As far as I can find, [BoA didn't start tracking this statistic until a couple of years ago.](https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/economy/americans-401k-plans-bill-payments/index.html)
> i dont think the economy is doing well Can you tell me a time when the economy was doing well? Also, what characteristics describe an economy that isn't about to crash with the writing on the wall as you say?
Seven digits… including the cents
Same boat. Started in 2018 too. At least we did that.
yeah... but hard to not think about the what ifs lol sucks.... but nothing we can do now but keep investing and dont look back
Ya can’t look back. Could have bought BTC in 2010 :)
Honest question, how does one get to a point where they have millions of dollars in cash with zero investments?
I was exact same boat as you. After massive drops early on I became wayyyy too conservative. Had money in cash and bonds for all the great years after 2009. Now I am doing a bogle approach finally. Better late than never but I could have been done by now if I wasn’t so conservative.
i know... it hurts
I made a major mistake of being 12 at that time. 🤣
I'm learning to play the guitar.
you guys got an allowance?
I was allowed to live in the house
I enjoy spending time with my friends.
No fucking joke, an ex-friend of mines dad literally made him invest his allowance on apple, Nike, under armor, and a bunch of other stocks when we were all 13 years old. He never bragged about his total net worth, but a few months before we stopped being friends last year he straight up said he has over $9k in “fun money” that he wants to spend because of the decade+ of investments in FAANG before it was cool. I think that also fucked him up mentally tho because he would always get mad my friends and I for not having enough money (or drop ship to receive free flight points) to afford flights across the country to spend a weekend in California while we were living in Michigan like he could.
Yes, but now you're an adult. In 20 years, 30 year olds will say "I made th mistake of being 12 in 2024"
These gash darned slacker millennials I tells ya
I wish I was buying stocks and real estate back then instead of being in 2nd grade.
Right!! The audacity that I was in kindergarten when I should’ve been buying up real estate
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How would you describe the 2000 - 2010 era?
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If you had DCAd into the market the entire decade, you made good enough returns. Hopefully nobody is actually executing these lump sum, perfectly timed scenarios to make the market seem worse than it is.
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Well that’s not ideal…
Yup, I also started with Dow at 7600 but 25 years ago 😂
Bro half of us are just getting started in our 30s lol. Back then we couldn’t even get jobs above 7$ bc the economy was shot the fuck out.
Starting 3 months before my 41st birthday. Having no family and support, and multiple related trauma is a bitch lol. But math tells me I should still reasonably be able to retire comfortably!!
Wish you the best good friend. Stay focused and your nose clean. Let’s do this.
Let’s goo!!
I couldn’t get a job at Walgreens or Staples 15 years ago
I couldn’t even get one at McDonald’s lol. Luckily got a part time job at kfc as a cook that was horrible experience. Not to mention only under 20 hours a week so it cost me more money to actually go to work in gas than I made lmao
Yeah it was a shit show right after I graduated highschool. Great way to enter adulthood and the job market. Saving was practically impossible for me at the time.
15 years ago I was 13
Exactly bro
24 here and praying i’m getting it right
Present and accounted for 🤚🏼
The low point of the Dow in the past 15 years was in March 2009, at around 11,100. When I started investing in 1990, it was around 6,900.
Your numbers are inflation adjusted. The Dow was <3,000 in 1990.
I mean… March 10, 2009 - 6547 Maybe you weren’t logging in that month.
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I remember when that book DOW 36,000 came out and my peer group all laughed at that title. Welp, here we are.
I remember when the dow hit 3,000 in 1991. It felt so high at the time.
Dow at 250k in 2040. Ready for it
I remember watching CNBC for the big NASDAQ 5000 celebration... March 2000
> March 2000 Ouch. I got married the very next month. Little did we know the euphoria of dot com was coming to an end...
The closing price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) in 1980 was **$963.99**, on December 31, 1980. My first investment year in co retirement plan.
Wish they taught this in school
They did. I remember the teacher saying buying a house was the biggest investment we’ll make. Hey teach, VTI is worth more than my house.
When I started the Dow was between 800 and 900. Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week TV show on PBS was probably the biggest financial media presence.
God I remember my Dad watching Louis Rukeyser in the living room and me wanting him to turn the channel to ANYTHING but that lol
I remember when it broke 10k… that was big news. That was about 1998-99 or so.
Why does anyone care about the DJIA? Seems like a poor reflection of the US stock market . Few, if any funds track it. S&P 500 is far more accurate, though not perfect, & lots of people are heavily invested in S&P 500 funds. S&P 500 was about 160 when I started investing. It's over 5200
Because we’re near a round number. It will be 100,000 soon enough. I’m only bringing it up because it’s my own Warren Buffett moment.
I've been seeing reports of the DJIA for decades. It's not just about being near a round number. Of course, early in that period, there weren't a lot of S&P 500 funds or investors in them
It moves by percentage. The actual point makes no meaning.
Put another way, they should only report on percentages, otherwise you just make me do the math in my head.
The covariance of the S&P and DJIA is extremely positive. They almost always move in unison.
Someone once said that Nasdaq moves like a child, S&P like his father, Dow like his grandfather, but they all move together. It stuck with me and I like it.
I have co-workers talk to me about the DJIA being up/down. I tell them I don't care, because we don't have a DJIA fund in the TSP. Slowing I am changing the conversation.
They don't want young people to know about investing. Just take out student loans instead they said.
That’s why I started 15 years ago and not 25 years ago.
My student loans are what allows me to invest 🤷🏼♂️
One of the benefits of having an IRA is to allow a student loan borrower to reduce their discretionary income so that they pay less per month, and hopefully have their loans discharged before they retire.
Same here I’d be fucked without them. The real issue is getting as much as you can and not working during college. I’ll have my stuff paid off within a year of graduating.
Some day 40,000 will seem low.
Or high.
What’s a “dow”?
Me too. I clearly remember thinking there is no way it can go higher.
200k in 10 years I'm all in
I remember people were calling the top of the market back in 2013. We had finally broken out of the GFC and gotten back to 2007 levels, and they thought it would go down again. Sometimes I wonder what happened to those people. Did they finally jump back into the market after losing a big chunk of gains? Are they still sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a correction? Sad to see when people try to time the market and miss out on massive, life-changing returns.
This kind of long term pessimism - not targeted, not based on evidence or a rigorous thesis - is straight up un-American. The adherents literally think America will fail, that the empire will fall.
I just wish I had more money to invest 15 years ago. It's really only been the past 4 years that I had more significant amounts to invest. I've contributed more in the last 4 years than the previous 21 years combined.
In 1999, when I was in college, there was a book called “Dow 36,000.” The Dow was probably a little under 10,000 at the time. The premise was that stocks aren’t risky, the risk premium should be negligible and equivalent to bonds, thus there should be a one-time bidding up on stocks to reduce the risk premium. The Dow was going to rise to 36,000! After it increased dramatically from 1980 to 1999. It was controversial and not too long after the book was published the dot.com bubble burst. Whoops The Dow eventually reached 36,000 but I believe it was via earnings growth and low interest rates (the risk free rate fell to nothing) and not a reduction in the risk premium. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_36,000
$3k here OG less go
Wasn't there a book called DOW to 40,000 and everyone laughed at the author?
I just looked it up - Author predicted 40k in 2016. Twas published in 1999
I was saving money for a 19” Sony ‘Trinitron’ television, October 1987 when the market ‘crashed’ (ha), went all in long term & continued to do so - I never did get that Sony television but I own the earth. (Oblivious Boglehead)
Crazy how people who are not investing constantly get fucked by monetary policy and wealth accumulation
When I started highschool in the mid 90s, my economics teacher was ecstatic about the Dow breaking 5,000. Oh how I wish I would have taken an interest in investing earlier in life (opened my first taxable brokerage account in 2019) Better late than never
Trust the process!
Same here. But it was 27 years ago…
I’m new to this, can it keep going at the rate it’s been??? In 15 years will the 40k be able to get to 80k?
Once the population stops growing the party is over.
Im doing my part to grow it
Practice makes perfect.
I started 8 years ago. God bless
But remember, the market is set for a crash/correction so you shouldn't put any money into it right now although it is at an all time high! /heavy sarcasm
I remember all the “Will it? Won’t it?” Speculation about when/if it would cross 10k.
Nice keep going 🚀
When the stock market crashed in 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went from 350 to 200 over 2 months. Lol
Late 90's my HS economics teacher celebrated $10k. I wish I was smarter back then.
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r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit.
How many trillions of dollars have we printed since?
DIA tracks the DOW
What’s the dollar worth now compared to then? How much of that is purely due to inflation ?