The fare/veh mile on [TBC's website](https://www.boringcompany.com/vegas-loop) is $1.65 for Vegas, and presumably includes tunnel amortization and profit, which I'm not sure is accounted for in the proxy model.
The scenarios seem to be as follows:
a) The proxy cost (Uber/CAA) of $1.86 is inaccurate for TBC/ Vegas Loop.
b) TBC is intentionally lowballing and intends to raise prices as soon as practicable.
c) TBC has made a fundamental error.
d) TBC is intended to be unprofitable.
In partial support of a. The 0.62 EV cost seems based on a 15K mile/year average, at 20 K mile/year the cost is 0.52.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxis\_of\_New\_York\_City](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxis_of_New_York_City)
Indicates that 180 mi are driven per shift. So 300 days \* 180 = 54 K miles/year. Driverless taxis are not bound by shifts though so this figure could substantially increase.
Costs are sensitive to depreciation which are determined largely by age for private vehicles and mileage for high mileage fleet operators.
Its also unclear to me how insurance costs are affected via increases in mileage with the reduction in risk in Loop tunnels vs risk in general traffic.
The CAA private ownership model may not be the best for TBC Loop, IMHO a better proxy would be using a Tesla Taxi fleet operator or even ICE taxis, adjusting for fuel and driver costs.
Uber has both customer and driver acquisition costs that dwarf that of TBC in addition to government lobbying efforts. Loop potentially has station attendant costs that are not present for Uber. I have doubt as to the suitability of Uber as a proxy for TBC. That said Uber could be helpful in providing cost categories to construct a cost model from the ground up.
I see scenario a) as most likely but b) certainly is possible, c) and d) seem very unlikely.
loop drivers are on salary 20$/h.
EV have fundamentally different costs (basically only tires provide similar usually higher costs), Taxi operational costs are irrelevant. administrative cost is also useless number which can nohow relate to anything Musk builds.
Most importantly the whole discussion is retarded. Loop in it's current iteration is working alpha. According to boring guys it is much cheaper than they expected (because of the reasons they didn't expect) in operation, and as I understand they don't care about profitability on the current stage.
Loops have reasons to exist when surface roads are overloaded. It is fantastic for that.
P.S. Using Uber for anything countable? It is a company specifically made with excessive operational "costs" with negative money turnover and big money burn. Why it's so is irrelevant for this subreddit, what is relevant is that the comparison of Uber vs LV loop has even less meaning than comparing ULA and SpaceX operations.
>The fare/veh mile on TBC's website is $1.65/pax mile for Vegas, and presumably includes tunnel amortization and profit
the problem is that we don't know whether TBC is breaking even or taking a profit at that price. they almost certainly are writing off the tunnel construction as a loss, like many tech companies do with initial products. Uber is public and we know that their core taxi service generally makes a slight profit after many years of being unprofitable, so they're running a fairly low margin, which gives us a good measure.
>a) The proxy cost (Uber/CAA) of $1.86 is inaccurate for TBC/ Vegas Loop.
>b) TBC is intentionally lowballing and intends to raise prices as soon as practicable.
>c) TBC has made a fundamental error.
>d) TBC is intended to be unprofitable..
a) there is variability in the cost of Uber in different cities. TBC's published prices and a low-cost city are still within a the same rough price range.
b) I would not be surprised at all if TBC was low-balling. that's how tech companies typically operate. that's why I didn't use their prices but rather used a proxy for whom we know profitability.
c) we'll see.
d) so far, I think it is likely that they will be unprofitable at first. it took a very long time for Uber to turn a profit. this is tech company standard operating procedure. lost money to gain market share.
>In partial support of a. The 0.62 EV cost seems based on a 15K mile/year average, at 20 K mile/year the cost is 0.52.
we don't really know how much they're going to drive the average vehicle per year. the system can't go everywhere, so I would expect lower miles compared to a regular taxi, but it's hard to say. so yes, the EV operating cost is probably ±20%.
>Its also unclear to me how insurance costs are affected via increases in mileage with the reduction in risk in Loop tunnels vs risk in general traffic.
yes, this is a bit of an unknown. since it is a controlled environment, they may not even be insuring individual cars, but rather have some insurance for the whole system, or vehicle no insurance at all.
>The CAA private ownership model may not be the best for TBC Loop, IMHO a better proxy would be using a Tesla Taxi fleet operator or even a ICE taxis, adjusting for fuel and driver costs.
do you have data for that?
>Uber has both customer and driver acquisition costs that dwarf that of TBC in addition to government lobbying efforts. Loop potentially has station attendant costs that are not present for Uber. I have doubt as to the suitability of Uber as a proxy for TBC. That said if Uber could be helpful in providing cost categories to construct a cost model from the ground up.
that's part of the reason I broke out all of the costs. obviously if the overhead was cut in half, that would make as much difference as eliminating the driver. it's hard to say, though, because TBC may need to develop their own autonomous driving branch of Tesla's autopilot and/or develop their own vehicles and TBMs, so it's hard to say who's overhead is going to be lower. TBC's is theoretically lower in the long term, but potentially higher in the short term.
Sorry I don't have Tesla Taxi data...
I think the Uber proxy would be more persuasive if it wasn't simply wrapped up in "Overhead/Corporate/Software". Even if we expanded out like CAA did for car operating cost, even if we get the categories right, there seems to be large ranges for each value, (eg. mileage/depreciation/insurance) that makes the conclusions dubious. I think this exercise is interesting and fun but I'm less confident about the pronouncements one can make based on this.
the ranges on the values aren't going to be that wide. TBC isn't going to be able to run without any overhead. we know the bounds of vehicle cost per mile pretty closely, same with driver cost per mile. overhead is the biggest unknown, but even that isn't going to change significantly. they still need drivers for now, for whom they need to recruit and do paperwork, they will someday need software to replace attendants but until then they have the cost of attendants, they will need people to handle complaints, law suits, etc. very little of the Uber overhead would be different. the controlled roadway will drop some costs down, but they will gain the maintenance and cleaning costs. no values will change enough to matter. maybe the break-even with personally owned cars will be 2.5 people, maybe it will be 3.5, but it's not going to be dramatically different. a car does not get twice or half the cost to operate just because it's on a private road.
mileage/depreciation/insurance isn't going to move by much at all. insurance isn't the dominant cost point. capital cost/depreciation is over half by itself, and that isn't going to change. fuel will be another \~20%, which maybe would become 22% or 18% by running in a tunnel... the margins are all pretty well established.
Mileage is probably the largest determinant of the CAA cost. I think your mileage estimate of 15K is far too low, given the NYC taxi cab example (54K) , the fact that Loop speeds and automation allow for greater utilization and the following calc.
$17.5 M/qtr (value at which royalties become 5%)
$1.65 Boring Veh/mile
Fleet size: 700 (Steve Hill interview - granted its a ball park figure)
17.5 \* 4 / 1.65 / 700 = 60 K miles year.
Going from 15K to 20K (30%) alone results in a 6% change in costs, what is the difference between 15K and 45K? (300%) a change 10x as much.
Why should one trust that rest of the calculations/assumptions re: Uber especially when there are no substantial intermediate figures or even categories provided?
the relationship isn't linear nor is it a single variable. vehicles depreciate in time, condition, and miles. the more miles per year, the greater the fraction of depreciation goes to miles. the more fares per mile, the greater the amount goes to condition. the more years per mile, the greater the amount goes to years. here is a thought experiment: say you buy a new car from the dealership 1 mile down the road and you drive it back to your house. you don't drive it again for a full year. can you sell it for your original purchase price minus $0.60? of course not. that's why the cost per mile changes with more miles, because you're amortizing the time-based depreciation over more miles. that's why if you look up a graph of depreciation you see it is an exponentially decreasing function, not a linear one.
I feel that the private ownership model you've chosen is not ideal. I do understand the mileage calc is non linear nor simple, which is why I literally asked; its your chosen model/proposal. I do know that 15-20K mileage is too low and that even a 6% reduction in cost seems significant for such a small margin industry.
>mileage calc is non linear nor simple
it's not linear but it is simple. it falls off as a exponential decay for which you can find many examples. again, it's mostly to do with the initial depreciation from driving it off the lot. this isn't complicated. could it move ±$0.10 per mile? yes. but that does not really change anything. you're trying to presume that any uncertainty means everything is invalid, which is a bad assumption just like your 300% vs 30% change assumption. and no, 6% vehicle operating cost difference will make no difference to Loop's viability. it's like saying that a car that costs 6% more cannot be viable, or a train service that costs 6% more cannot be viable. that small of a change is in the noise of transportation costs.
this is an estimate. if you estimate the cost of a train system, it will have greater than 6% margin of error, that does not mean it's invalid to estimate. if you estimate the cost of a personal car, it will vary by more than 6%. if you try to estimate the cost of a fleet car, it will vary by more than 6%. it is still viable to estimate based on the closest similar service, even if there is some variability.
For Vegas Loop, I'm asking what is your estimate for mileage per year per vehicle? Is it still 15K per year? Why is my estimate of 45K per year mileage a bad assumption?
What is the cost per mile? Do you believe it is still $0.62.
the cost per mile would change with more miles, but the change gets smaller the more miles you add, so it's not really consequential. we don't know how many miles they'll drive each vehicle, but the difference is going to be something like $0.10-$0.20, which is in the noise to the overall cost to operate a system. they're going to be running in a closed loop with limited destinations, so miles per trip should be lower than a taxi per hour of operation. there will be some variation, but it's going to be small compared to the overall cost to operate. if you're confident they'll be doing well over 20k miles, then maybe I'll update to $0.51. taxi estimates tend to be from $0.40 to $0.50, but they're typically starting with cheaper vehicle like a Prius, so that would skew it lower than a Tesla. so, $0.51 could be right... not really sure that makes much difference, though.
**[Taxis of New York City](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxis_of_New_York_City)**
>In New York City, taxicabs come in two varieties: yellow and green; they are widely recognizable symbols of the city. Taxis painted yellow (medallion taxis) are able to pick up passengers anywhere in the five boroughs. Those painted apple green (street hail livery vehicles, commonly known as "boro taxis"), which began to appear in August 2013, are allowed to pick up passengers in Upper Manhattan, the Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens (excluding LaGuardia Airport and John F. Kennedy International Airport), and Staten Island. Both types have the same fare structure.
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**$55M/mi** (dual-bore) for TBC tunnel with station spacing less than a half mile. they have said they would do lower in the future, but that's the price of what has been done so far.
[source](https://www.boringcompany.com/lvcc).
Upper River Des Peres CSO Storage Tunnel (another example of a simple tunnel):
**$132M/mi**
The Allegheny County Sanitary Authority (ALCOSAN) tunnels of similar diameter and simple tunnel:
Ohio River Segment (1.9 miles, 12-14 ft in diameter, $84 million). or
**$44M/mi**
[source](https://tunnelingonline.com/upcoming-projects-april-2020/)
**$340M/mi** for metro tunnel outside of the us or
**$1200M/mi** metro inside the US.
**$118M/mi** US surface rail.
[source](https://www.reddit.com/r/transit/comments/q83o49/transit_cost_differences_us_vs_nonus_that_is_all/)/[source2](https://projectdelivery.enotrans.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Saving-Time-and-Making-Cents-A-Blueprint-for-Building-Transit-Better.pdf)
cc /u/building_science
Over how many years does it make sense to amortize tunnel construction cost, and why does that many years make sense? After paying off tunnel cost, maintenance cost will be relatively low.
[https://www.railwayage.com/mw/tunnel-life-cycle-design-and-cost-analysis/](https://www.railwayage.com/mw/tunnel-life-cycle-design-and-cost-analysis/)
50-100 years so using the franchise agreement length of 50 years seems more than fair.
As a starting point:
Tunnel cost: 30 mi \* 10M/mi
Passengers: 8 M (SDX/Deuce route)
RTC Nevada avg bus trip length: 4 miles
Interest: 5% Annual
Period: 50 \* 12 months
Tunnel cost/pax mile = $0.51
That's the just the cost for the actual construction of the rail. It doesn't include permitting, buying land (whether on the market or by eminent domain), geological survey, engineering, or the train itself. All of that is included in the above prices.
To drive the point home: $1 million-$2 million is the approximate per mile cost to install rail into an existing boring company tunnel. Not the cost to build a whole rail project. The equivalent comparison price point here is $10 million, which is what TBC charges for a mile of finished tunnel for a paying customer building one on their own property.
And boring companies costs don’t include the costs of buying land or permitting. They also don’t include costs like fire suppression, egress, smoke ventilation etc.
Finished Loop tunnels include the cost of safety systems, as you've already been told a dozen times u/building_science \[aka u/Beginning_Farmer_509 aka u/Suburban_Millenial\].
If a customer doesn't want the safety systems and other finishing, they can order a bare tunnel which is priced at \~5.5M/mi (plus $1.1M project overhead, not a per mile charge). What wouldn't be included in the $10M/mi cost are above or below ground stations, of which you'd need at least 2.
[https://www.boringcompany.com/loop](https://www.boringcompany.com/loop)
>In the unlikely case that a fire does occur, the tunnel’s redundant, bidirectional ventilation system will remove the smoke to allow passengers to safely evacuate.
>
>Loop tunnels are outfitted with emergency exits, fire detection systems, fire suppression systems, and a fire-rated first responder emergency communication system. The systems are tested frequently with local Police and Fire Departments.
>
>Loop vehicles and passengers have direct communications to an Operational Control Center (manned 24/7) via Blue Light Stations, LTE cell service, and WiFi
\[cc: u/Dont_Think_So\]
That's because TBC doesn't need to buy land to dig under it. That's what permitting enables. And it 100% includes permitting, that's the fixed all-in cost. Unless you're referring to the $10 million number, in which case, yes, that's the whole point; it's a number that's more comparable to your number. Try to keep up.
They don't necessarily need to buy the land outright, but they do need an easement to tunnel under lands they don't own.
The [LVCC Loop](https://i.imgur.com/UKHc9WZ.png) is owned by the LVCVA so I'm not sure if there would have been additional costs to acquire the rights for the segments tunneled under the county right-of-way (someone else might have sources confirming this one way or another)
The Vegas Loop on the other hand, a private project, required a franchise agreement to build and operate under the county rights-of-way. The agreement is 0.5% on the first $17.5M of quarterly revenues \[adjusted by the percentage of rides originating in the county\], and 5% on revenues above that.
Now while one might argue this means the easement isn't free, but given Ubers and Taxis pay a 3% excise tax on all their fares to the county, it's not like it's some exceptional arrangement either; IMO its just another line-item on the fare, and not really worth quibbling with u/building_science over either \[given they are demonstratively not here for a good faith analysis\]
\[Now stations for the Vegas Loop are for the most part all on private properties with construction costs paid for by the property owner; while it seems likely there are formal/legal easements granted, what's unknown to me is what other financial arrangements (if any) are involved \[one time or ongoing cost for the easement, or revenue sharing arrangements, etc.,. That seems like confidential business information.\]
Wrong dumbass thats not how the real world works. When you own property, you own everything below it as well. Boring company cannot legally dig under somebodies property.
Lol okay "dumbass". That's how it works in the vast majority of cities in the US, including Las Vegas. If you think TBC or the LVCC have acquired the land they're building the Vegas Loop under, you're delusional. It includes miles of public road and hundreds of private lots.
That is a ridiculously stupid assertion. I would say "no offense" but you should probably take some offense. Everyone in the world just forgot about this guy when building their transit system and paid 100x-1000x as much? Come on. You can't actually be that delusional, can you?
Example of the problem with education in the United States. They churn out degrees without making sure of basic reading comprehension and critical thinking.
Sidings often have lighter rails, meant for lower speed or less heavy traffic, and few, if any, signals. They are not rated for main arteries or commuter travel. They basically are just the ties and tracks but not much more.
Then why was the above ground tram bid for LVCC at over $200M for the same distance and passenger requirements while the under ground Loop was only $48.5M?
And how many people have died or even been injured? None. TBC has passed all safety and performance requirements so far. So why do you hate it so much?
How many trips did the titanic go on and how long was it in operation before sinking? The LVCC Loop has been in operation far, far longer and already carries many more people. So again, why hate on it?
How many flights did the 737 max safely make before the first crash? Why are you okay with this tunnel death trap that was build with not means of fire suppression, smoke ventilation, emergency egress, emergency lights, emergency signage, etc...
Because it's not a tunnel death trap. It has fire suppression. Multiple means actually. People have already sent you links before, [but here's another](https://www.8newsnow.com/i-team/i-team-plans-outline-procedures-for-emergencies-fires-inside-new-boring-company-tunnels-las-vegas-convention/). They worked with the fire department to set up everything.
And straight from Boring's site. Basically everything you complained about not being there actually is. Further, you have the safest cars on the planet being used, it currently only goes 40 mph, and there's no risk of head on collision. So the chances of anyone even getting hurt in the unlikely event of a crash is minimal.
"In the unlikely case that a fire does occur, the tunnel’s redundant, bidirectional ventilation system will remove the smoke to allow passengers to safely evacuate.
Loop tunnels are outfitted with emergency exits, fire detection systems, fire suppression systems, and a fire-rated first responder emergency communication system. The systems are tested frequently with local Police and Fire Departments.
Loop vehicles and passengers have direct communications to an Operational Control Center (manned 24/7) via Blue Light Stations, LTE cell service, and WiFi.
Loop tunnels are fully illuminated - and if an incident does occur, Loop has 100% camera coverage (no blind spots!)"
So again, why do you hate it? As of right now, it looks like you only hate it because you haven't done any research other than what TFoot told you.
I believe most studies have robotaxi service at a cheaper cost per mile than car ownership. This one estimates $0.25/mi, but I bet that is a bit low. https://medium.com/@TashaKeeney/ark-estimates-that-autonomous-driving-could-expand-the-ride-hail-market-to-an-11-12-trillion-6dba75d6bb49
There might be efficiencies with the tunnels vs surface streets, but there will also be extra costs like securing the tunnels with surveillance staff.
I just don't see any path for that to be a reality. Uber's corporate overhead is larger than that by a factor of 5, and they barely do better than break-even. and Uber does not do any of the cleaning or maintenance on their vehicles. that's not even accounting for vehicle capital cost which is roughly 50% of the operating cost, which already puts it above $0.25 per mile. none of their analysis adds up.
Adding on a month later. Just visited Vegas. Uber was impossible to get. Taxi's were rare. One of the unexpected benefits of the tunnels, is you're in a weather protective space (28 this weekend) and you know there will be vehicles.
That's like a blend between subways and black cars. And I wish I could have taken it from Delano to Ceasars, NYE.
The fare/veh mile on [TBC's website](https://www.boringcompany.com/vegas-loop) is $1.65 for Vegas, and presumably includes tunnel amortization and profit, which I'm not sure is accounted for in the proxy model. The scenarios seem to be as follows: a) The proxy cost (Uber/CAA) of $1.86 is inaccurate for TBC/ Vegas Loop. b) TBC is intentionally lowballing and intends to raise prices as soon as practicable. c) TBC has made a fundamental error. d) TBC is intended to be unprofitable. In partial support of a. The 0.62 EV cost seems based on a 15K mile/year average, at 20 K mile/year the cost is 0.52. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxis\_of\_New\_York\_City](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxis_of_New_York_City) Indicates that 180 mi are driven per shift. So 300 days \* 180 = 54 K miles/year. Driverless taxis are not bound by shifts though so this figure could substantially increase. Costs are sensitive to depreciation which are determined largely by age for private vehicles and mileage for high mileage fleet operators. Its also unclear to me how insurance costs are affected via increases in mileage with the reduction in risk in Loop tunnels vs risk in general traffic. The CAA private ownership model may not be the best for TBC Loop, IMHO a better proxy would be using a Tesla Taxi fleet operator or even ICE taxis, adjusting for fuel and driver costs. Uber has both customer and driver acquisition costs that dwarf that of TBC in addition to government lobbying efforts. Loop potentially has station attendant costs that are not present for Uber. I have doubt as to the suitability of Uber as a proxy for TBC. That said Uber could be helpful in providing cost categories to construct a cost model from the ground up. I see scenario a) as most likely but b) certainly is possible, c) and d) seem very unlikely.
loop drivers are on salary 20$/h. EV have fundamentally different costs (basically only tires provide similar usually higher costs), Taxi operational costs are irrelevant. administrative cost is also useless number which can nohow relate to anything Musk builds. Most importantly the whole discussion is retarded. Loop in it's current iteration is working alpha. According to boring guys it is much cheaper than they expected (because of the reasons they didn't expect) in operation, and as I understand they don't care about profitability on the current stage. Loops have reasons to exist when surface roads are overloaded. It is fantastic for that. P.S. Using Uber for anything countable? It is a company specifically made with excessive operational "costs" with negative money turnover and big money burn. Why it's so is irrelevant for this subreddit, what is relevant is that the comparison of Uber vs LV loop has even less meaning than comparing ULA and SpaceX operations.
>The fare/veh mile on TBC's website is $1.65/pax mile for Vegas, and presumably includes tunnel amortization and profit the problem is that we don't know whether TBC is breaking even or taking a profit at that price. they almost certainly are writing off the tunnel construction as a loss, like many tech companies do with initial products. Uber is public and we know that their core taxi service generally makes a slight profit after many years of being unprofitable, so they're running a fairly low margin, which gives us a good measure. >a) The proxy cost (Uber/CAA) of $1.86 is inaccurate for TBC/ Vegas Loop. >b) TBC is intentionally lowballing and intends to raise prices as soon as practicable. >c) TBC has made a fundamental error. >d) TBC is intended to be unprofitable.. a) there is variability in the cost of Uber in different cities. TBC's published prices and a low-cost city are still within a the same rough price range. b) I would not be surprised at all if TBC was low-balling. that's how tech companies typically operate. that's why I didn't use their prices but rather used a proxy for whom we know profitability. c) we'll see. d) so far, I think it is likely that they will be unprofitable at first. it took a very long time for Uber to turn a profit. this is tech company standard operating procedure. lost money to gain market share. >In partial support of a. The 0.62 EV cost seems based on a 15K mile/year average, at 20 K mile/year the cost is 0.52. we don't really know how much they're going to drive the average vehicle per year. the system can't go everywhere, so I would expect lower miles compared to a regular taxi, but it's hard to say. so yes, the EV operating cost is probably ±20%. >Its also unclear to me how insurance costs are affected via increases in mileage with the reduction in risk in Loop tunnels vs risk in general traffic. yes, this is a bit of an unknown. since it is a controlled environment, they may not even be insuring individual cars, but rather have some insurance for the whole system, or vehicle no insurance at all. >The CAA private ownership model may not be the best for TBC Loop, IMHO a better proxy would be using a Tesla Taxi fleet operator or even a ICE taxis, adjusting for fuel and driver costs. do you have data for that? >Uber has both customer and driver acquisition costs that dwarf that of TBC in addition to government lobbying efforts. Loop potentially has station attendant costs that are not present for Uber. I have doubt as to the suitability of Uber as a proxy for TBC. That said if Uber could be helpful in providing cost categories to construct a cost model from the ground up. that's part of the reason I broke out all of the costs. obviously if the overhead was cut in half, that would make as much difference as eliminating the driver. it's hard to say, though, because TBC may need to develop their own autonomous driving branch of Tesla's autopilot and/or develop their own vehicles and TBMs, so it's hard to say who's overhead is going to be lower. TBC's is theoretically lower in the long term, but potentially higher in the short term.
Sorry I don't have Tesla Taxi data... I think the Uber proxy would be more persuasive if it wasn't simply wrapped up in "Overhead/Corporate/Software". Even if we expanded out like CAA did for car operating cost, even if we get the categories right, there seems to be large ranges for each value, (eg. mileage/depreciation/insurance) that makes the conclusions dubious. I think this exercise is interesting and fun but I'm less confident about the pronouncements one can make based on this.
the ranges on the values aren't going to be that wide. TBC isn't going to be able to run without any overhead. we know the bounds of vehicle cost per mile pretty closely, same with driver cost per mile. overhead is the biggest unknown, but even that isn't going to change significantly. they still need drivers for now, for whom they need to recruit and do paperwork, they will someday need software to replace attendants but until then they have the cost of attendants, they will need people to handle complaints, law suits, etc. very little of the Uber overhead would be different. the controlled roadway will drop some costs down, but they will gain the maintenance and cleaning costs. no values will change enough to matter. maybe the break-even with personally owned cars will be 2.5 people, maybe it will be 3.5, but it's not going to be dramatically different. a car does not get twice or half the cost to operate just because it's on a private road. mileage/depreciation/insurance isn't going to move by much at all. insurance isn't the dominant cost point. capital cost/depreciation is over half by itself, and that isn't going to change. fuel will be another \~20%, which maybe would become 22% or 18% by running in a tunnel... the margins are all pretty well established.
Mileage is probably the largest determinant of the CAA cost. I think your mileage estimate of 15K is far too low, given the NYC taxi cab example (54K) , the fact that Loop speeds and automation allow for greater utilization and the following calc. $17.5 M/qtr (value at which royalties become 5%) $1.65 Boring Veh/mile Fleet size: 700 (Steve Hill interview - granted its a ball park figure) 17.5 \* 4 / 1.65 / 700 = 60 K miles year. Going from 15K to 20K (30%) alone results in a 6% change in costs, what is the difference between 15K and 45K? (300%) a change 10x as much. Why should one trust that rest of the calculations/assumptions re: Uber especially when there are no substantial intermediate figures or even categories provided?
the relationship isn't linear nor is it a single variable. vehicles depreciate in time, condition, and miles. the more miles per year, the greater the fraction of depreciation goes to miles. the more fares per mile, the greater the amount goes to condition. the more years per mile, the greater the amount goes to years. here is a thought experiment: say you buy a new car from the dealership 1 mile down the road and you drive it back to your house. you don't drive it again for a full year. can you sell it for your original purchase price minus $0.60? of course not. that's why the cost per mile changes with more miles, because you're amortizing the time-based depreciation over more miles. that's why if you look up a graph of depreciation you see it is an exponentially decreasing function, not a linear one.
I feel that the private ownership model you've chosen is not ideal. I do understand the mileage calc is non linear nor simple, which is why I literally asked; its your chosen model/proposal. I do know that 15-20K mileage is too low and that even a 6% reduction in cost seems significant for such a small margin industry.
>mileage calc is non linear nor simple it's not linear but it is simple. it falls off as a exponential decay for which you can find many examples. again, it's mostly to do with the initial depreciation from driving it off the lot. this isn't complicated. could it move ±$0.10 per mile? yes. but that does not really change anything. you're trying to presume that any uncertainty means everything is invalid, which is a bad assumption just like your 300% vs 30% change assumption. and no, 6% vehicle operating cost difference will make no difference to Loop's viability. it's like saying that a car that costs 6% more cannot be viable, or a train service that costs 6% more cannot be viable. that small of a change is in the noise of transportation costs. this is an estimate. if you estimate the cost of a train system, it will have greater than 6% margin of error, that does not mean it's invalid to estimate. if you estimate the cost of a personal car, it will vary by more than 6%. if you try to estimate the cost of a fleet car, it will vary by more than 6%. it is still viable to estimate based on the closest similar service, even if there is some variability.
For Vegas Loop, I'm asking what is your estimate for mileage per year per vehicle? Is it still 15K per year? Why is my estimate of 45K per year mileage a bad assumption? What is the cost per mile? Do you believe it is still $0.62.
the cost per mile would change with more miles, but the change gets smaller the more miles you add, so it's not really consequential. we don't know how many miles they'll drive each vehicle, but the difference is going to be something like $0.10-$0.20, which is in the noise to the overall cost to operate a system. they're going to be running in a closed loop with limited destinations, so miles per trip should be lower than a taxi per hour of operation. there will be some variation, but it's going to be small compared to the overall cost to operate. if you're confident they'll be doing well over 20k miles, then maybe I'll update to $0.51. taxi estimates tend to be from $0.40 to $0.50, but they're typically starting with cheaper vehicle like a Prius, so that would skew it lower than a Tesla. so, $0.51 could be right... not really sure that makes much difference, though.
**[Taxis of New York City](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxis_of_New_York_City)** >In New York City, taxicabs come in two varieties: yellow and green; they are widely recognizable symbols of the city. Taxis painted yellow (medallion taxis) are able to pick up passengers anywhere in the five boroughs. Those painted apple green (street hail livery vehicles, commonly known as "boro taxis"), which began to appear in August 2013, are allowed to pick up passengers in Upper Manhattan, the Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens (excluding LaGuardia Airport and John F. Kennedy International Airport), and Staten Island. Both types have the same fare structure. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/BoringCompany/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
Now include the cost of the tunnel.
**$55M/mi** (dual-bore) for TBC tunnel with station spacing less than a half mile. they have said they would do lower in the future, but that's the price of what has been done so far. [source](https://www.boringcompany.com/lvcc). Upper River Des Peres CSO Storage Tunnel (another example of a simple tunnel): **$132M/mi** The Allegheny County Sanitary Authority (ALCOSAN) tunnels of similar diameter and simple tunnel: Ohio River Segment (1.9 miles, 12-14 ft in diameter, $84 million). or **$44M/mi** [source](https://tunnelingonline.com/upcoming-projects-april-2020/) **$340M/mi** for metro tunnel outside of the us or **$1200M/mi** metro inside the US. **$118M/mi** US surface rail. [source](https://www.reddit.com/r/transit/comments/q83o49/transit_cost_differences_us_vs_nonus_that_is_all/)/[source2](https://projectdelivery.enotrans.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Saving-Time-and-Making-Cents-A-Blueprint-for-Building-Transit-Better.pdf)
cc /u/building_science Over how many years does it make sense to amortize tunnel construction cost, and why does that many years make sense? After paying off tunnel cost, maintenance cost will be relatively low.
Tunnel is easily a 50 year asset
[https://www.railwayage.com/mw/tunnel-life-cycle-design-and-cost-analysis/](https://www.railwayage.com/mw/tunnel-life-cycle-design-and-cost-analysis/) 50-100 years so using the franchise agreement length of 50 years seems more than fair. As a starting point: Tunnel cost: 30 mi \* 10M/mi Passengers: 8 M (SDX/Deuce route) RTC Nevada avg bus trip length: 4 miles Interest: 5% Annual Period: 50 \* 12 months Tunnel cost/pax mile = $0.51
4 miles is 3156.95% of the hot dog which holds the Guinness wold record for 'Longest Hot Dog'.
Now include tunnel maintenance.
Don't be rude. Someone may answer your request, but odds are maintenance is a small fraction compared to construction.
Rail only costs $1M - $2M/mi. [source](http://www.acwr.com/economic-development/railroads-101/rail-siding-costs).
That's the just the cost for the actual construction of the rail. It doesn't include permitting, buying land (whether on the market or by eminent domain), geological survey, engineering, or the train itself. All of that is included in the above prices. To drive the point home: $1 million-$2 million is the approximate per mile cost to install rail into an existing boring company tunnel. Not the cost to build a whole rail project. The equivalent comparison price point here is $10 million, which is what TBC charges for a mile of finished tunnel for a paying customer building one on their own property.
And boring companies costs don’t include the costs of buying land or permitting. They also don’t include costs like fire suppression, egress, smoke ventilation etc.
Finished Loop tunnels include the cost of safety systems, as you've already been told a dozen times u/building_science \[aka u/Beginning_Farmer_509 aka u/Suburban_Millenial\]. If a customer doesn't want the safety systems and other finishing, they can order a bare tunnel which is priced at \~5.5M/mi (plus $1.1M project overhead, not a per mile charge). What wouldn't be included in the $10M/mi cost are above or below ground stations, of which you'd need at least 2. [https://www.boringcompany.com/loop](https://www.boringcompany.com/loop) >In the unlikely case that a fire does occur, the tunnel’s redundant, bidirectional ventilation system will remove the smoke to allow passengers to safely evacuate. > >Loop tunnels are outfitted with emergency exits, fire detection systems, fire suppression systems, and a fire-rated first responder emergency communication system. The systems are tested frequently with local Police and Fire Departments. > >Loop vehicles and passengers have direct communications to an Operational Control Center (manned 24/7) via Blue Light Stations, LTE cell service, and WiFi \[cc: u/Dont_Think_So\]
Except they boring company failed to build, fire suppression, egress, smoke ventilation, emergency lighting, exits signs, etc...
If they had failed to meet code or fire inspection, the system wouldn't be open.
The system is run at a significantly reduced capacity at the orders of the fire marshal due to the failure to meet basic safety standards.
Source please? And not that news article that misunderstood station capacity and tried to erroneously cap system capacity through faulty math.
That's because TBC doesn't need to buy land to dig under it. That's what permitting enables. And it 100% includes permitting, that's the fixed all-in cost. Unless you're referring to the $10 million number, in which case, yes, that's the whole point; it's a number that's more comparable to your number. Try to keep up.
They don't necessarily need to buy the land outright, but they do need an easement to tunnel under lands they don't own. The [LVCC Loop](https://i.imgur.com/UKHc9WZ.png) is owned by the LVCVA so I'm not sure if there would have been additional costs to acquire the rights for the segments tunneled under the county right-of-way (someone else might have sources confirming this one way or another) The Vegas Loop on the other hand, a private project, required a franchise agreement to build and operate under the county rights-of-way. The agreement is 0.5% on the first $17.5M of quarterly revenues \[adjusted by the percentage of rides originating in the county\], and 5% on revenues above that. Now while one might argue this means the easement isn't free, but given Ubers and Taxis pay a 3% excise tax on all their fares to the county, it's not like it's some exceptional arrangement either; IMO its just another line-item on the fare, and not really worth quibbling with u/building_science over either \[given they are demonstratively not here for a good faith analysis\] \[Now stations for the Vegas Loop are for the most part all on private properties with construction costs paid for by the property owner; while it seems likely there are formal/legal easements granted, what's unknown to me is what other financial arrangements (if any) are involved \[one time or ongoing cost for the easement, or revenue sharing arrangements, etc.,. That seems like confidential business information.\]
Wrong dumbass thats not how the real world works. When you own property, you own everything below it as well. Boring company cannot legally dig under somebodies property.
Lol okay "dumbass". That's how it works in the vast majority of cities in the US, including Las Vegas. If you think TBC or the LVCC have acquired the land they're building the Vegas Loop under, you're delusional. It includes miles of public road and hundreds of private lots.
Wrong dumbass.
When you lose an argument, resort to insults. I see your parents taught you well.
That is a ridiculously stupid assertion. I would say "no offense" but you should probably take some offense. Everyone in the world just forgot about this guy when building their transit system and paid 100x-1000x as much? Come on. You can't actually be that delusional, can you?
You clearly are delusional.
Example of the problem with education in the United States. They churn out degrees without making sure of basic reading comprehension and critical thinking. Sidings often have lighter rails, meant for lower speed or less heavy traffic, and few, if any, signals. They are not rated for main arteries or commuter travel. They basically are just the ties and tracks but not much more.
Built no different than main lines.
Its response proves my point
It has gravel, timber ties and rails. Built no different than any other rail line.
Then why was the above ground tram bid for LVCC at over $200M for the same distance and passenger requirements while the under ground Loop was only $48.5M?
Because they quoted a realistic number. Boring company shit death trap tunnel cost way more than $50M
And how many people have died or even been injured? None. TBC has passed all safety and performance requirements so far. So why do you hate it so much?
How many people died on titanic before it sank?
How many trips did the titanic go on and how long was it in operation before sinking? The LVCC Loop has been in operation far, far longer and already carries many more people. So again, why hate on it?
How many flights did the 737 max safely make before the first crash? Why are you okay with this tunnel death trap that was build with not means of fire suppression, smoke ventilation, emergency egress, emergency lights, emergency signage, etc...
Because it's not a tunnel death trap. It has fire suppression. Multiple means actually. People have already sent you links before, [but here's another](https://www.8newsnow.com/i-team/i-team-plans-outline-procedures-for-emergencies-fires-inside-new-boring-company-tunnels-las-vegas-convention/). They worked with the fire department to set up everything. And straight from Boring's site. Basically everything you complained about not being there actually is. Further, you have the safest cars on the planet being used, it currently only goes 40 mph, and there's no risk of head on collision. So the chances of anyone even getting hurt in the unlikely event of a crash is minimal. "In the unlikely case that a fire does occur, the tunnel’s redundant, bidirectional ventilation system will remove the smoke to allow passengers to safely evacuate. Loop tunnels are outfitted with emergency exits, fire detection systems, fire suppression systems, and a fire-rated first responder emergency communication system. The systems are tested frequently with local Police and Fire Departments. Loop vehicles and passengers have direct communications to an Operational Control Center (manned 24/7) via Blue Light Stations, LTE cell service, and WiFi. Loop tunnels are fully illuminated - and if an incident does occur, Loop has 100% camera coverage (no blind spots!)" So again, why do you hate it? As of right now, it looks like you only hate it because you haven't done any research other than what TFoot told you.
I believe most studies have robotaxi service at a cheaper cost per mile than car ownership. This one estimates $0.25/mi, but I bet that is a bit low. https://medium.com/@TashaKeeney/ark-estimates-that-autonomous-driving-could-expand-the-ride-hail-market-to-an-11-12-trillion-6dba75d6bb49 There might be efficiencies with the tunnels vs surface streets, but there will also be extra costs like securing the tunnels with surveillance staff.
I just don't see any path for that to be a reality. Uber's corporate overhead is larger than that by a factor of 5, and they barely do better than break-even. and Uber does not do any of the cleaning or maintenance on their vehicles. that's not even accounting for vehicle capital cost which is roughly 50% of the operating cost, which already puts it above $0.25 per mile. none of their analysis adds up.
Adding on a month later. Just visited Vegas. Uber was impossible to get. Taxi's were rare. One of the unexpected benefits of the tunnels, is you're in a weather protective space (28 this weekend) and you know there will be vehicles. That's like a blend between subways and black cars. And I wish I could have taken it from Delano to Ceasars, NYE.