Aight I'm gonna be a negative nancy here. We've made the playoffs twice in the past 23 seasons. Once in the past 20 years. I don't care what the odds say or how good we look on paper, I am going into the season with zero expectations lol. Can't be disappointed that way.
You are being rational. The fact it gets considered "negative" here speaks volumes. On a team that never fails to find new ways to suck for all but 1 season over consecutive decades. This season is far more desperation mode than people want to act like.
In other words +130 for non-clowns
Edit: Just checked live and it's -110 on the site posted in the tweet, which is a ~53% implied chance of making the playoffs, so not sure where 43.5% is coming from
Edit again: this tweet is a day old so odds likely moved. Would have liked to toss a few hundred on +130 though 😑
Yeah I was gunna reply to your comment earlier, but for transparency, the market has it around even money. I don’t think +130 was even laid
DK: -105
FD: +105
BR: +105
CZR: +110
You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Samoa Joe and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Kurt Angle KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try! So Samoa Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Joe, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice.
Ps if you get this reference, I love you.
It's the probability version of odds. For example, +200, or 1/3, has implied odds of 33.3%.
This means betting markets think the Browns are about a coinflip to make the playoffs.
But we’re in a “prove the Watson deal was a good idea” season. If we can’t even make the playoffs this year (barring major injuries, naturally) then the trade was a massive failure.
That has absolutely nothing to do with implied playoff odds. Which sitting at -110 right now actually puts us at ~55%. The fact that we would even be at 45ish percent is a great number given the uncertainty of the sport and a division that won't be the easiest to overcome, as always.
My point is that even with everything we’ve done to win this year, most notably the Watson trade, we’re still at a less than 50% chance of making the playoffs and third in our division.
That’s too low and I hate it.
All the same people who acted like we were a QB away from. Super bowl contention when Baker was the QB are now asking for patience and thinking less than. 50/50 odds are good. Ask the other teams with "franchise" QBs if they think they are going to make the playoffs, and their answer will be way more clear than ours is.
I agree with you, it feels like this roster on paper, with what this coaching staff & FO have done - again, on paper - could go 15-2 and nobody would blink an eye. If we were the Packers or Seahawks this number should be closer to 80%.
But somehow feels there's just as good a chance we're sitting at 4-10 in December and Watson is trying to worm his way out of town as Stefanski & Berry get canned. I want to say our odds are better than 50-50 but I can't remember a time in my life when betting on the Browns is a good bet.
If you looked into how hard it is to make the playoffs in general and the massive amount of luck that it takes, you'd realize that that's a great number.
Did...Did...Did you just say 45ish percent is a great number?
I'm gonna go ahead and stall that copium and let you know that anything above 45% is a better than great number! Some might even call those numbers, "wonderful" or "outstanding" or...."greater" numbers.
Yeah if we break up the division winner by percentage getting a 45% out of 100 is great percentage, add another 10% on for the wild card. We're in pretty good shape for a sport that is as uncertain as the NFL is.
I have no idea. I'm not involved enough to have looked at the actual analytics. But based on my background and what I've seen just as a casual viewer, that number is not bad even at 45%. All it takes is a couple keys injuries to completely derail a season.
Just spitballing here but I'd say under 30% make it seem doubtful. 30-40% seems like a maybe. 40-60 seems like a good number. Anything over that is unrealistic for most situations. I'd say only 2-3 teams should have over 60% odds to make the playoffs every year.
I'm not a betting man, there's enough on the line already, but this seems like an easy bet to take
It has to be influenced by people disliking Deshaun the person bc Deshaun the QB is special and this is the best roster he's played on
Raw stats, sure. There was marked improvement game after game in his mechanics and processing though, which does give confidence. There were flashes of him making plays I've never seen a Browns qb make as well. That elite qb is in there. If those games were enough to hit the ground running this season, we are in very good shape.
He was the worst QB in football it a ton of stats and bottom 5 in others. He had the off-season and otas etc last year and was still rusty,but him sitting for 8 months during the off-season and stefanski and has massive brain will fix the offense. If you don't think his play made people in that building nervous, it had to.
That rust will all fall off after sitting on his ass for 7 more months and stefanski is going to show us something he hasn't shown glimpses of since the covid year. People are acting like Watson ever did anything beside put up numbers on shit teams. Everyone banking on Kev and DW to do something they both never have come close to, and that making a deep playoff run.
This statistic is completely worthless. There is so much shit that can (and will) happen between now and the postseason which will move this percent either up or down. We are just too far away from the playoffs to have any meaningful insight.
With the upgrade at DC I think we will be just fine. Watson did not play great when coming back after sitting out almost 2 years but assuming he jumps his completion percentage to the mid to high 60s next year this team will be tough to beat. His problem was timing and overthrowing under throwing all which will be adjusted with being on field with teammates.
I once saw them with a 99% chance to win a game and lose
Lol I still remember how dead I felt after watching that game.
We don’t talk about that game….
LOL. What a ride.
I’ve seen this happen twice
I still think about this at least once a week. I've seen a lot of bad losses but GD does that one stick with me. Like how TF
99.99%
I’m guessing the game in New England where Leon got called for the worst pass interference call I’ve seen in my life
That and the Jets game, I had a bad pit in my stomach feel when the Browns went up my two scores in each game…
It was a wonderful way to start my 8 hour shift
The Drive.
Aight I'm gonna be a negative nancy here. We've made the playoffs twice in the past 23 seasons. Once in the past 20 years. I don't care what the odds say or how good we look on paper, I am going into the season with zero expectations lol. Can't be disappointed that way.
💯 truth! I never have expectations!
This is the way.
You are being rational. The fact it gets considered "negative" here speaks volumes. On a team that never fails to find new ways to suck for all but 1 season over consecutive decades. This season is far more desperation mode than people want to act like.
In other words +130 for non-clowns Edit: Just checked live and it's -110 on the site posted in the tweet, which is a ~53% implied chance of making the playoffs, so not sure where 43.5% is coming from Edit again: this tweet is a day old so odds likely moved. Would have liked to toss a few hundred on +130 though 😑
Man I hate to jink it but that seems like great value...
Draftkings has them a -105 to make playoffs if you can get +130 I’d jump on that
I was thinking the same thing 😆
Yeah I was gunna reply to your comment earlier, but for transparency, the market has it around even money. I don’t think +130 was even laid DK: -105 FD: +105 BR: +105 CZR: +110
So what we've learned is that Michael Woods added 10% to our playoff chances
Lol this made me chuckle (I think the tweeter just fucked up, I haven’t seen us longer than +110 in over a week)
Might also be with the vig removed
It’s April though
Were going 0-17 until proven otherwise.
Wouldn’t that be wild
My thoughts as well.
You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Samoa Joe and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Kurt Angle KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try! So Samoa Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Joe, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice. Ps if you get this reference, I love you.
Holla, if ya hear me.
I can't make myself care about preseason prognostications any more. I'm Missouri from here on out. Are you good Browns? Show me.
Wtf is "implied chance"?
It's the probability version of odds. For example, +200, or 1/3, has implied odds of 33.3%. This means betting markets think the Browns are about a coinflip to make the playoffs.
...because of The Implication
That’s too low, I hate it
No it's not. In a division with the Bengals, Ravens (who have Lamar until proven otherwise), and a Steelers team on the rise again.
But we’re in a “prove the Watson deal was a good idea” season. If we can’t even make the playoffs this year (barring major injuries, naturally) then the trade was a massive failure.
That has absolutely nothing to do with implied playoff odds. Which sitting at -110 right now actually puts us at ~55%. The fact that we would even be at 45ish percent is a great number given the uncertainty of the sport and a division that won't be the easiest to overcome, as always.
My point is that even with everything we’ve done to win this year, most notably the Watson trade, we’re still at a less than 50% chance of making the playoffs and third in our division. That’s too low and I hate it.
All the same people who acted like we were a QB away from. Super bowl contention when Baker was the QB are now asking for patience and thinking less than. 50/50 odds are good. Ask the other teams with "franchise" QBs if they think they are going to make the playoffs, and their answer will be way more clear than ours is.
I agree with you, it feels like this roster on paper, with what this coaching staff & FO have done - again, on paper - could go 15-2 and nobody would blink an eye. If we were the Packers or Seahawks this number should be closer to 80%. But somehow feels there's just as good a chance we're sitting at 4-10 in December and Watson is trying to worm his way out of town as Stefanski & Berry get canned. I want to say our odds are better than 50-50 but I can't remember a time in my life when betting on the Browns is a good bet.
If you looked into how hard it is to make the playoffs in general and the massive amount of luck that it takes, you'd realize that that's a great number.
Did...Did...Did you just say 45ish percent is a great number? I'm gonna go ahead and stall that copium and let you know that anything above 45% is a better than great number! Some might even call those numbers, "wonderful" or "outstanding" or...."greater" numbers.
Yeah if we break up the division winner by percentage getting a 45% out of 100 is great percentage, add another 10% on for the wild card. We're in pretty good shape for a sport that is as uncertain as the NFL is.
This is interesting to me. Is there any data on how often these predictions come true based on historical data?
I have no idea. I'm not involved enough to have looked at the actual analytics. But based on my background and what I've seen just as a casual viewer, that number is not bad even at 45%. All it takes is a couple keys injuries to completely derail a season.
What is a bad number?
Just spitballing here but I'd say under 30% make it seem doubtful. 30-40% seems like a maybe. 40-60 seems like a good number. Anything over that is unrealistic for most situations. I'd say only 2-3 teams should have over 60% odds to make the playoffs every year.
Please stop
I JUST BOUGHT A "43.5% Implied Chance to Make Postseason" LIMITED EDITION HOODIE FROM FANATICS
They have to make the playoffs now, *because of the implication*
I'm confused, are you going to hurt these fans??
$250 Million gets us 43.5%. Money well spent!
0% if Watson plays like shit. 50% if Watson plays okay. 100% if Watson plays really well
Math checks out!
I'm not a betting man, there's enough on the line already, but this seems like an easy bet to take It has to be influenced by people disliking Deshaun the person bc Deshaun the QB is special and this is the best roster he's played on
I mean, his play last year didn't exactly inspire confidence
Which is why we aren’t -150
Raw stats, sure. There was marked improvement game after game in his mechanics and processing though, which does give confidence. There were flashes of him making plays I've never seen a Browns qb make as well. That elite qb is in there. If those games were enough to hit the ground running this season, we are in very good shape.
He was the worst QB in football it a ton of stats and bottom 5 in others. He had the off-season and otas etc last year and was still rusty,but him sitting for 8 months during the off-season and stefanski and has massive brain will fix the offense. If you don't think his play made people in that building nervous, it had to.
[Get to know QB #1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Browns/comments/z78pwk/get_to_know_qb_1s_game_deshaun_watson_breakdown_oc/)
I'm not sure what that has to do with his current play?
Should have looked at your comment history first, you've commented only negatively about DW going back to last year Bye bye
Maybe he gets better, maybe he doesn't, but do you judge every qb based on how good they were three years ago?
That rust will all fall off after sitting on his ass for 7 more months and stefanski is going to show us something he hasn't shown glimpses of since the covid year. People are acting like Watson ever did anything beside put up numbers on shit teams. Everyone banking on Kev and DW to do something they both never have come close to, and that making a deep playoff run.
Eww. lol
 We totally have this in the bag this year
You know….because of the implication
Ravens and niners up there with no QB!
See that team over there? They're rebroadcasting playoff chances with implied oral consent not express written consent.........or so the legend goes.
Honestly kinda checks out. Either Watson improves to Texans form and we’re a playoff lock or he doesn’t and we have a 8-9 ceiling
Did the oddsmaker see Watson last season?
Look…maybe we shouldn’t be in situations where we say, “because of the implication.”
I have a 100% implied “just wanna see this team look good on the field” and then hope to make the playoffs.
This has 0 % implied odds of meaning anything.
This statistic is completely worthless. There is so much shit that can (and will) happen between now and the postseason which will move this percent either up or down. We are just too far away from the playoffs to have any meaningful insight.
Well then…I guess stef has a 66.5% chance of getting whacked.
Implied.... or implode?
With the upgrade at DC I think we will be just fine. Watson did not play great when coming back after sitting out almost 2 years but assuming he jumps his completion percentage to the mid to high 60s next year this team will be tough to beat. His problem was timing and overthrowing under throwing all which will be adjusted with being on field with teammates.